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Bitcoin Holds 2022 Lows as Inflation Soars and More Troubled Crypto Companies Emerge

Bitcoin Holds 2022 Lows as Inflation Soars and More Troubled Crypto Companies Emerge

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Another month, another red-hot inflation data. As of Wednesday 13th, July, the consumer price index (CPI, a key measure of U.S. inflation) was up 9.1% from a year earlier. Meaning shoppers are paying significantly more for everything from groceries, gasoline and rent. The higher-than-expected reading immediately spooked cryptocurrencies and stocks, as Bitcoin plunged 5% and the S&P 500 opened by 1%. The liquidity crisis plaguing crypto firms; Three Arrows Capital and Celsius continued to spread across the market. Well, it hasn't been all bad news for the crypto sector. Let's dive into the water.

Four decades of high inflation and the Fed's efforts to combat it are weighing on stocks and crypto markets and sparking fears of a recession. Consumer prices rose 9.1% in June from a year earlier, beating Dow Jones's 8.8% forecast. The most significant inversion of the yield curve between 10-year and 2-year Treasury bills (a key indicator of a recession) occurred since 2000. The latest inflation report could mean another rate hike is on the horizon for the Federal Reserve, which has accelerated efforts to unwind pandemic-era stimulus. Riskier assets such as cryptocurrencies and tech stocks have benefited from excess consumer cash in the past, but have since suffered some of the sharpest losses.

Two months after the Terra/Luna debacle, liquidity and credit issues continue to plague overstretched crypto firms like Three Arrows Capital (3AC), Celsius, Voyager, and more. A legal battle has erupted between the founders and liquidators of 3AC, which manages $10 billion, after it filed for bankruptcy on July 1.

The fallout from 3AC affects Blockchain.com. (3AC lost $270 million on loans), Voyager Digital (filed for bankruptcy after 3AC failed to repay $670 million), and BlockFi. FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried has since "bailed out" the latter two. Meanwhile, Celsius, one of the first companies to suspend withdrawals due to liquidity issues paid off a huge Defi loan ahead of its bankruptcy filing Wednesday night.

Bitcoin mining companies are also feeling the pinch.

Despite the fall in cryptocurrency prices, global mining output has remained near all-time highs over the past month. Meaning mining energy costs are high even as the value of cryptocurrency block rewards falls. As a result, some miners are selling their cryptocurrency to pay fees.

Core Scientific, one of the largest miners in the world, sold $167 million worth of BTC (over 75% of its BTC) to pay off servers and other debts. Canadian miner Bitfarms sold $62 million worth of BTC (more than 75% of its BTC) to improve liquidity, and Argo Blockchain liquidated $15.6 million to repay Galaxy Digital's loan.

What's the good news?

Regarding global adoption, Italy subsidizes Internet blockchain projects with $46 million. The Central African Republic has announced a new national cryptocurrency, Sango Coin, whose president says it will be "a gateway to the country's natural resources." portal." Meanwhile, $5.5 billion in venture capital flowed into crypto projects in the year's first half. Most recently, Axie Infinity developer Sky Mavis raised $150 million for blockchain gaming, and Layer 1 protocol Rubix raised $100 million from a company specializing in cross-border transactions.

It's also important to note that Ethereum successfully launched proof-of-stake on its Sepolia test net, the second of three milestones ahead of a blockchain energy-efficient upgrade known as Merge.

Why this matters

Months into the crypto winter of Bitcoin's 70% drop from its November all-time high, a big question is permeating: Are we near a bottom? While some analysts claim that macro factors are crucial like the Fed slowing rate hikes or cutting stock earnings forecasts, others think we're close to a bottom. While no one can predict how the crypto market will move, finding a bottom is more than just price levels. As one cryptocurrency trader told CoinDesk:

"The bottom is as much a product of time as the price…Cynical sentiment must die down and give way to optimism."

The price of crypto has been steadily declining since the beginning of the year. This is a common market trend and seems to be generally accepted. The fall in price is not only concerning for those who invested a considerable amount of money in crypto, but it also affects people who are just curious about it. Although the fall in price may be seen as a negative trend, it also has its own set of benefits.

 

 

 

 

Tim Moseley

Gold price holding support at 1700 as US retail sales rise 1 in June

Gold price holding support at $1,700 as U.S. retail sales rise 1% in June

The gold market is holding support at $1,700 as U.S. consumers appear to be on solid footing, buying more than expected in June.

U.S. retail sales advanced 1.0% last month following a upwardly revised drop of 0.1% in May, according to the latest data from the U.S. Commerce Department. Economists were expecting to see a rise of 0.9% in last month’s headline number.

Core sales, which strip out vehicle sales, also beat expectations and were up 1% last month versus the projected advance of 0.7%. The report’s control group, which strips out autos, gas, building materials, and food services, increased 0.8%, beating expectations of a 0.3% gain.

The strong gains in retail sales comes as consumers saw inflation rise to its highest level in 40 years last month.

The gold market is seeing little reaction to the latest positive economic data. August gold futures last traded at $1,702.30 an ounce, down 0.23% on the day.

Economists note that the strong rise in retail sales will help ease fears that the U.S. is close to a recession. Economists have also said that the data also supports the Federal Reserve’s aggressive monetary policy stance.

While some economists are optimistic on the health of the U.S. economy others are skeptical. Katherine Judge, senior economist at CIBC, said that consumers are still faced with falling purchasing power, which will continue to impact consumption.

“Retail sales bounced back in the US in June, but much of the advance owes to higher prices,” she said. “These figures will clearly look less impressive in volume terms, and we expect the erosion in consumer purchasing power to weigh on goods spending ahead.”

By Neils Christensen

For Kitco News

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

 

Tim Moseley

What’s Wrong With News And Social Media Today?

What’s Wrong With News And Social Media Today? 

A democratic society values a free-flowing media ecosystem. A healthy media ecosystem is one of the characteristics of a democratic society. Mass media outlets such as newspapers and cable TV networks were prominent in the past. Today, the internet and social media platforms allow for greater communication across society. 

Journalism, investigative correspondents, and even freelance writers are essential to that ecosystem. High-quality reporting revealing brutal truths and users' scope and exposure on social media to either create or access information are forces that can drive genuine societal change. And even keep the power structures in check. 

Despite the positive aspects mentioned above, harmful practices and negative external forces related to the media ecosystem often eclipse them. These issues are usually easy to recognize once they’re identified. Therefore, it is important to acknowledge them and spread awareness about their potential risks. 

Doing so will help you make informed decisions about how you use media and how it can impact your life and the lives of others. The following are a few issues pervasive in many digital news sites, forums, and social media platforms. 

 

Image source: VisualCapitalist

Implicit Bias vs. Explicit Bias
An explicit bias in media has two types: explicit and implicit. It is possible for publishers with explicit biases to control the framing of stories in their publications by overtly dictating the types of stories that are covered. They push their agenda by using narrative fallacies or false balance. 

Implicit bias refers to unintentional filtering or skewing of information. This can occur by turning a blind eye to specific topics or issues because they would tarnish an advertiser's image. These are known as no-fly zones, and because the news industry is financially troubled, these zones are becoming increasingly dangerous. 

Difference between Misinformation and Disinformation
Inaccurate information is known as either misinformation or disinformation. While misinformation is unintentionally disseminated due to a lack of knowledge or truth on the topic, disinformation is purposely designed to mislead people. For example, a deepfake image, video, fake news story, or concept is considered disinformation. 

The term 'fake news' is frequently used to describe poorly written news content or inaccurate news reporting, as well as conspiracy theories and poorly written or incorrect tweets by politicians. Fake news might refer more broadly to information that an individual disagrees with.

Context Stripping
Through social media, stories are shared widely by many participants, and the most compelling framing usually wins out. More often than not, the truncated, provocative posts spread the furthest. The process of stripping context away from an idea may distort its meaning.

Sharing video clips on social platforms is a perfect example of this context-stripping process. Despite the absence of context, much discussion occurs around the video, especially if it’s controversial or shocking. As a result, viewers are unintentionally encouraged to stereotype the individuals in the video and to bring their own preconceived notions to the discussion table, helping fill the gaps. 

Cherry Picking 
Media contributors search for attention-grabbing story angles to make their point in an article. This may result in cherry-picking information and ideas. Because the content is usually accurate, it makes sense on the surface, but it is missing critical context. 

So cherrypicking can be questionable and compromising. It is tempting to create simplistic narratives that are compelling such as good-vs-evil, but real-world situations are often much more complicated than they appear. 

Desperate Times Call For Desperate Measures
Journalism is experiencing difficult times. Newsrooms are working with less staff and budgets, and 'churnalism' is one outcome. This term describes the act of publishing articles directly from wire services and PR releases. Even if it isn't widely known, 'churnalism' replaces more rigorous reporting. It is also an avenue for advertising and propaganda and harder to recognize as news. 

 

Image source: VisualCapitalist

Paywalls
The drive to generate revenue is leading to other issues as well. Quality content is increasingly being restricted to subscribers only, otherwise called paywalls. This has resulted in a two-class system, with subscribers receiving in-depth, well-researched news and everyone else having access to trivial or sensationalized content only. 

It’s not only about people with limited incomes; young people are also widely included. The average age of a paid news subscriber is 50 years old, raising concerns about the future of the subscription business model. 

Advertisement Clutter
Desperate times have led to desperate measures for advertising-reliant outlets. User experience has taken a backseat to ad impressions, with ad clutter (e.g., auto-play videos, pop-ups, and prompts) constantly interrupting content. One or two ads on a web page are manageable, but when ads overrun the site, it's distracting and disorienting. 

Surveillance Capitalism
In surveillance capitalism, organizations collect large amounts of data about their customers, employees, and other groups that are viewed as valuable sources of information. This information can be used for various purposes, such as generating revenue by selling data or predicting consumer behavior and targeting them with highly personalized advertising campaigns to increase their profits.

Some organizations capture and profit from individual information utilizing browser fingerprinting. When you visit certain websites, third-party companies scan your device and browser settings to track you online. Despite all the opt-in privacy prompts, these third-party trackers can still watch your every move digitally. Most people are not aware of this process.
 

Deplatforming
Many individuals and communities have been banned from social and publishing platforms for various reasons. While harassment and violence, fake accounts, and bots are obvious reasons to remove the offenders’ accounts, many would argue the rules are inconsistently enforced. Users are falling victim to being suspended or deleted from a platform for having a different point of view than the mediators of the platform. 

While we all are responsible for our online behavior as individuals, platform owners must also be careful to preserve the value of their platforms by avoiding over-zealous enforcement tactics that could lead to deplatforming. Invariably this causes irrefutable damage to the individual or company with a loss of followers and content. 

In many cases, this behavior from specific platforms is seen as a structural bias and agenda-setting from the top down by placing importance on selected topics and is very quick to censor legitimate political discourse or other forms of honest expression. A problem that seems ingrained with legacy social media and a battle we can’t win. 

 

Image source: VisualCapitalist

Argument Culture
It’s ultimately deviating to an adversarial approach when encountering people with an opposing worldview. Two examples of this are Twitter flame wars and broadcasts where hyperpartisan critics argue. While these are fun for some people, these activities do not require critical thinking or problem solving and are not helpful for the overall health of our society. 

A flame war is created when multiple users engage in inflammatory responses to an original post, sometimes flamebait. Flame wars often draw in many users, including those trying to defuse the flame war, and can quickly become a mass flame war that overshadows regular forum discussion.

When engaging in argument culture, people will often cherry-pick facts to strengthen their argument, ignore facts that weaken their argument and dismiss facts that reinforce the opposing argument. This approach to facts is often referred to as post-factual. Similarly, people often use hyperbolic language when arguing with others.

Brigading & Social Bots
Social media companies can be powerful enablers and disrupters where users can communicate in new and meaningful ways to help foster community engagement. On the other hand, they can also pose some unique challenges. They are driven by algorithms that privilege engagement with certain kinds of content over others. 

There are autonomous or human-run accounts on certain social media platforms that manipulate discussions and boost specific messages. This alters the tone of online discourse and artificially inflates the spread of messages. These accounts often promote particular agendas, benefit specific groups, or spread misinformation. This type of social media manipulation is referred to as brigading.

Some websites use bots to delete specific comments that they feel do not fit into the narrative of their website and promote what they consider “positive” comments instead. The potential consequences of using bots to promote or suppress specific comments will negatively impact the website and be perceived as one with an agenda that does not allow open discussion. 

 

Who Can You Trust? 
The issues mentioned above have led to a significant decline in confidence and trust across the various media outlets. A study of news media perception from 40 nations revealed that trust varied widely around the world, with European media trusted the most. Western Europeans trusted their media more than those in other parts of the world, and the Finnish were the most trusting, with 65%. The United States and Slovakia scored near the bottom regarding how much consumers trusted their news media at 26%.

The source is one factor that plays a significant role in whether or not an individual trusts news. On a global level, social media was the least trusted news medium, with Europe and North America leading this sentiment. A survey of U.S. adults found that most news on social media was regarded as biased.

Young people worldwide find it difficult to rely on mass media due to its current climate of polarizing political events and fake news. Older generations also share this viewpoint, and one of the top reasons for avoiding news was the inability to rely on its truthfulness.

Alternative Conservative Platforms Stand Up
Participants who lack trust in these disingenuous and agenda-driven platforms or feel their voice is not heard are migrating to other websites where they can be heard. More alternative media are popping up, Conservative-based, bi-partisan, and some are even non-partisan, with their only agenda being freedom of speech, liberty, and sovereignty. 

Conservatives are expanding their media outlets, aggressively building a conservative ecosystem with their own apps, cryptocurrencies, social media, and publishing houses. It includes Trump’s Truth Social and Gettr, launched by ex-Trump aide Jason Miller, with Rumble, the conservative alternative to YouTube, driving the news.

It is their effort to counter the perceived escalating liberal internet and media institutions and stand up against the developing cancel culture and censorship rife in legacy media. That is very commendable; however, it may well be perceived as still having a right-wing agenda that has the potential to stifle the platform’s ability to proliferate. 

 

An Alternative To The Alternative
Where can the people go who have no agenda, are critical thinkers, and have a completely unbiased worldview? People with an entrepreneurial spirit and a “live and let live” attitude that can rise above the injustices, evil trickery, and pettiness of the world. 

Today, the Markethive Social Market Broadcasting Network is growing in prominence as the ecosystem for entrepreneurs with a non-adversarial, bipartisan free speech ethic and a collaborative culture. It is a system of all things media, including a video platform and news broadcasting. It is a culmination of several distinct mechanisms that will harmonize, delivering the resources we need for everything we do online in a decentralized sovereign environment. 

Markethive Media has embraced blockchain technology and cryptocurrency, building an ecosystem that belongs to “we the people,” eliminating many of the issues plagued by media outlets today. With its meritocratic culture, dynamic social media interface, and growing community, Markethive is enhancing and bringing the platform into the future internet with new technology and interfaces, but still in keeping with the human touch.

There is no simple solution to the current problems facing news and social media. However, suppose we are more media literate and aware of what’s happening. In that case, we are better equipped to circumvent or even help fix these broken systems by encouraging honesty and transparency in communication channels that bond society, given that these mediums have become the primary source of information and interaction in the current dystopian climate.  

Reference
Visual Capitalist

 

 

 

 
 

Tim Moseley

Who Says Bitcoin Mining Needs To Be Profitable?

Who Says Bitcoin Mining Needs To Be Profitable?

by Mickey Koss

 

In addition to profits, bitcoin mining can also offer consistent electricity demand and can clean up the air by utilizing electricity made from wasted methane.

This is an opinion editorial by Mickey Koss, a West Point graduate with a degree in economics. He spent four years in the infantry before transitioning to the Finance Corps.

I’ve heard some recycled fear, uncertainty and doubt recently about transaction fees on the Bitcoin network not being able to sustain the miners, and thus maintain security once the block subsidy gets too low and or disappears. This got me thinking about how incentives might play out. 

 

Besides the obvious observation that they’re assuming no network usage growth and perpetually low fees on the base chain, I believe there are two key underlying assumptions that need to be addressed:

  1. Mining hardware will continue to exist in its current form as standalone, single-use computers.
  2. Mining companies will continue to exist in their current form as large, stand-alone companies that must constantly strive for profitability or go out of business.

Mining Hardware: One Man’s Trash Is Another Man’s Treasure

The name of the game here is utilizing waste. In its current form, electric heating elements create heat through the use of resistors. Resistors resist, changing the “flow” of electricity and dissipating the electrical power in the form of heat. You’re essentially utilizing poor electrical conductors in order to create heat. Seems pretty wasteful to me.

In terms of miners, their main waste product is heat. Imagine the applications you could build utilizing Bitcoin-specific ASIC chips. I see a future when every furnace and water heater produced utilizes ASIC chips as the heating element rather than the traditional electrical resistor types that exist today.

MintGreen in Canada is already doing this at a pretty large scale. They utilize their waste heat from the miners to heat local businesses like breweries, sea salt distilleries and even greenhouses.

This changes the home mining-profitability math completely. When utilizing dual purpose applications and harnessing the heat originally characterized as waste, the applications don’t need to be profitable in the traditional sense anymore.

The use of the newest generation of ASIC chips for heating purposes is not necessarily needed, nor desirable. Bitcoin mining heating applications, especially at the retail level, simply need to use the same amount of electricity or less than their non-mining competitors. The little bitcoin that is mined is simply an added benefit for upgrading your system or an incentive for builders to put into new homes.

Why would you want to buy a home that wastes electricity by simply heating it? That’s old school. I want a home that heats up and pays me when I heat it. I want a Bitcoin smart home.

Electric System Explained

To understand the second assumption, you first need to understand how electricity is generated. Electricity generation capacity consists of three main generating sources: base, peak and intermediate load generation. Base load power generates the minimum amount of electricity in order to satisfy the minimum level of demand in the system. Peak load generation is used to meet peak demand periods when demand spikes. It is ramped up and down, making it less efficient and more expensive. Intermediate load is also a variable source which responds to changes in demand, bridging the gap between base and peak load.

If we have variable capacity on hand, that means that at least some of the time we have unused capacity — valuable capital — that’s not being utilized. What this means is that your electricity costs not only have to cover the cost of production, but also must subsidize the cost of all the unused, but necessary capacity electricity producers have to maintain.

U.S. Energy Information Administration, U.S. Hourly Electric Grid Monitor (source)

Why so much complexity? Because demand is not constant. The above graphic shows the average demand for electricity and just how volatile it is, not only by region, but also by season. If power plants produce too much electricity, it can actually damage the grid, leading to a blackout.

There are a few techniques to store excess energy such as pumped storage hydropower, but they all have limitations such as access to water, space and battery technology. Simply put, once your battery is full, there’s nowhere else for the energy to go which ultimately leads to power curtailment. It’s also why intermittent sources like wind and solar will likely never be a sole source of power for the grid. There’s simply not enough storage capacity to keep the system running when the sun isn’t shining or the wind isn’t blowing.

Bitcoin, of course, fixes this.

Miners Don’t Need To Be Profitable

Right now, we see miners as standalone companies, buying electricity on the markets from electric companies. If the bitcoin price goes down and/or costs go up, miners get squeezed and go out of business. It’s a viciously competitive industry, but what if it wasn’t? What if mining became a service rather than a standalone business?

Service One: Elimination Of Variable Load Energy Sources

In my humble opinion, the only way forward for a truly sustainable energy system is one that is based on nuclear power. Nuclear power, however, is a base load energy generator; you can’t really ramp it up and down. The electricity produced must be consumed or literally wasted by sending it into the ground. So what do we use for variable demand?

My answer is bitcoin.

Instead of building capacity in variable forms — using up a bunch of capital for assets that are only used some of the time — why not build a massive base load of nuclear energy and use bitcoin mining as the variable demand to smooth the electricity demand curve. It flips the paradigm on its head. Not only do we get a massive source of clean and sustainable energy, we also utilize all of our capacity all of the time. The only variable being how much hash rate the power plant produces throughout the day.

In the meantime, bitcoin can be used to utilize all of the grid’s energy producing capacity. It will increase power company revenues, providing them with more capital to invest and build out infrastructure. Through the integration of bitcoin mining and energy production, bitcoin mining no longer has to be profitable in the traditional sense; it simply needs to outweigh the opportunity cost of not producing electricity at all.

Furthermore, the increased utilization means that consumers are no longer subsidizing unused capacity in their monthly bills. Imagine electricity rate-freezes or even cuts. At the very least, power rates wouldn’t need to rise nearly as fast. What’s good for the goose is good for the gander.

If a clean, sustainable, resilient, reliable and affordable electric grid is your goal, bitcoin is the way.

Service Two: Cleaning Up The Air

Waste products like natural gas and methane have been nothing more than an expensive cost of business for some time. All of that is beginning to change at a rapid pace.

Whether the gasses are produced through the breakdown of buried trash at a landfill, the drilling for oil, or the excrement of livestock and people, those gasses can now be harnessed and monetized through the use of generators to mine bitcoin.

It’s already happening.

ExxonMobil is just one of the companies starting to do this. Natural gas is a byproduct of oil drilling and extraction. In many cases, it was simply not economical to bring the gas to market, forcing producers to flare, or even worse, vent the gas directly into the atmosphere. Now the waste gas can be routed into a generator and used for mining bitcoin. It incentivizes companies to be more careful with that waste gas because it has been transformed into an income-producing asset rather than a pesky cost of business.

Landfills are also facing the same incentives. As garbage breaks down under the surface, it produces methane gasses. Those gasses, much like oil producers, were often flared or vented. With bitcoin mining, the methane is now an asset to those companies, incentivizing them to become better stewards, reducing air pollution.

Even human waste can be monetized with bitcoin mining. Wastewater treatment plants typically use anaerobic digesters to break down the solids after separating them from the bulk of the water they process. This process produces, you guessed it, methane.

Much like the power plant examples, bitcoin waste mining creates a situation in which miners no longer need to be profitable. Mining simply needs to outweigh the opportunity cost of not mining. In the situations where the gas cannot be brought to market, anything is better than nothing. I think I see a world where gas flaring and venting is a thing of the past.

No Profits? No Problem

Satoshi Nakamoto had to think differently to bring about the creation of an entirely different network of money and value. We now need to think differently to not only ensure the network survives, but to ensure human flourishing continues into the foreseeable future.

Energy is not scarce, nor should it be. Bitcoin is the incentive that the world needs to become truly innovative to ensure cheap, clean energy is available for all. Bitcoin is human flourishing.

Tim Moseley

Will 1700 become a sustainable support level for gold?

Will $1700 become a sustainable support level for gold?

Over the two trading days gold futures have traded below $1700 (marked X) and, on both occasions, recovered closing above that case psychological level. So, it is not illogical to wonder whether or not this price point will become a sustainable level of support or simply a pause before gold heads to lower prices.

Historically speaking the last time gold traded below $1700 occurred on August 9, 2021, the day of the "flash crash”. On Monday, August 9, 2021(marked a) gold opened at $1765 traded to a low of $1678, and closed at $1726. In this instance, $1700 played little technical importance within that one-hundred-dollar trading range. Before that gold traded below $1700 on two occasions in March 2021.

In both instances, gold traded to a low of approximately $1678. At the beginning of March 2021(marked b) gold traded below $1700 for three consecutive days before it moved above that price point. During the second instance that occurred at the end of March (marked c) gold broke below 1700 and then on the following day open below 1700 but closed well above that price point.

While historical studies can reveal many aspects and identify technical support and resistance levels, each identified example was caused by underlying fundamental events based on a unique set of factors and therefore may only offer fractional insight. More so, in each example over the last two years in which gold traded below $1700, it resulted in much lower prices before concluding and trading back above that price point. In fact, in all three examples highlighted on the chart, the price decline resulted in gold quickly moving below $1700 and trading to approximately $1680 before finding support.

The chart above (chart 2) is also a daily chart of gold futures. It references the same instances when gold broke below $1700 per ounce on three occasions. However, it highlights those lows which indicate that on each occasion gold broke through $1700 and did not find any price support until approximately $1780 per ounce.

Given that during each instance different fundamental events resulted in gold's price decline. However, on each occasion, gold found support technical or otherwise at $1680.

As of 5:23 PM EDT gold futures basis, the most active August contract is currently trading up $0.70 or 0.04% and fixed at $1706.50. Like yesterday gold broke below $1700 and effectively closed above that price point. However, if past studies result in any real insight it seems more likely that gold prices will not hold at $1700 only based on technical indicators. There would have to be a fundamental event that resulted in a dynamic pivot or shift in the current bearish market sentiment that has been prevalent in gold. With the latest CPI and PPI report this week indicating that inflationary pressures have increased since last month and remain persistent, the possibility that the Federal Reserve will raise rates by a full percentage point at this month's FOMC meeting is real. This fact could certainly move gold lower.

 

By Gary Wagner

Contributing to kitco.com

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

 

Tim Moseley

British Royal Mint sees gold bullion sales increase 8 in Q2 silver sales jump 47

British Royal Mint sees gold bullion sales increase 8% in Q2, silver sales jump 47%

The paper gold market has struggled to find consistent bullish momentum as prices dropped nearly 7% between April and June. However, the physical market saw solid growth, according to the latest report from the Royal Mint.

Thursday, the British mint said that sales of its gold bullion coins increased by 8% quarter-over-quarter. At the same time, silver bullion sales increased 47% compared to the sales in the first three months of 2022.

The mint added that it continues to see strong international sales, with specific demand growing among American consumers.

"Internationally, growth has also been seen in all three metals, with a 52% increase in the amount of gold ounces being sold, a 58% increase in silver ounces sold, and a 67% increase in platinum," the Royal Mint said in a statement.

"We are famous in the U.K. for making coins and bars from precious metals and have developed a strong international base of investors. It's encouraging to see such strong international sales, particularly from the U.S. and we look forward to expanding globally, providing a range of products to appeal to investors," added Andrew Dickey, director of precious metals at The Royal Mint.

The latest report from the British mint appears to be bucking the trend of slowing sales among significant mints. The U.S. Mint sold 315,000 ounces of gold during the second quarter, down 26% from the first quarter.

This is why gold is below $1,800 even as U.S. inflation hits a 40-year high at 9.1%

The U.S. Mint saw a demand drop sharply in June as it sold 52,000 ounces, according to the mint's revised data.

Meanwhile, the Perth Mint sold 244,737 ounces of gold in the second quarter, down 6% from 261,357 ounces sold in the first quarter.

Some analysts have said that the drop in bullion demand reflects nuances in the marketplace as higher premiums are pricing consumers out of the market. Premiums are high because of a supply and demand imbalance as bullion investors are holding on to the physical metal.

At the same time, analysts have said that the sharp drop in gold prices is expected to lead to an increase in physical demand. Thursday, gold prices dropped below $1,700 an ounce, hitting a nearly one-year low.

By Neils Christensen

For Kitco News

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

 

Tim Moseley

Gold’s year-end target is 2050 and here’s why 17 price surge still possible Wells Fargo

Gold's year-end target is $2,050 and here's why 17% price surge still possible – Wells Fargo

The strong U.S. dollar has been hurting gold's price, dragging the precious metal down to 8.5-month lows as it steals its safe-haven appeal. But this is not a game-changer for gold, which can still end the year above $2,000 an ounce, according to Wells Fargo.

The U.S. dollar index rose to another 20-year high Tuesday, while the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was at 2.921%. August gold futures were flat on the day, last trading at $1,731.60 an ounce after dropping below $1,725 overnight.

"The U.S. dollar has risen 12% since the start of the year. Almost half of that gain has come in the last month. Such big moves are quite rare, but when they do happen, commodity prices typically suffer. The reason is that most commodities are priced in U.S. dollars," Wells Fargo's real asset strategy head John LaForge said on Monday.

The broader commodities index has also suffered due to higher U.S. dollar and rising recession fears, hurting the demand outlook for industrial metals.

As the U.S. dollar gains, emerging market currencies drop, giving these countries less buying power.

"This loss of buying power can often negatively influence commodity demand and commodity prices," added LaForge. "Considering the strength in the U.S. dollar over the past month, it is not surprising that most commodity prices have been falling, gold especially."

Gold retreated 6% in June, primarily because of the U.S. dollar strength. The precious metal is one of the most sensitive commodities to the U.S. dollar price moves, according to LaForge.

Going forward, Wells Fargo is not expecting another significant move higher by the greenback, seeing it near its peak. However, for gold to move higher, it must create its own momentum.

LaForge's year-end gold price target is still at $2,050 an ounce, which he sees as reasonably achievable due to the recession narrative. He added that he would review his year-end targets soon if there is no movement.

"Gold needs its own surge of sorts — about 17% now — to hit our 2022 year-end target of $2,050 per ounce. For now, our year-end 2022 target remains unchanged, as 17% is doable. With recession around the corner, and gold being quite cheap versus most other commodities, investors may begin to buy. That said, we understand that time is running out, so we are reviewing our targets," he said.

By Anna Golubova

For Kitco News

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

 

Tim Moseley

Question Everything

Question Everything

by Jeff Thomas, editor, International Man Communique

 

Question Everything

 

The average person in the First World receives more information than he would if he lived in a Second or Third World country. In many countries of the world, the very idea of twenty-four hour television news coverage would be unthinkable, yet many Westerners feel that, without this constant input, they would be woefully uninformed.

Not surprising, then, that the average First Worlder feels that he understands current events better than those elsewhere in the world. But, as in other things, quality and quantity are not the same.

The average news programme features a commentator who provides "the news," or at least that portion of events that the network deems worthy to be presented. In addition, it is presented from the political slant of the controllers of the network. But we are reassured that the reporting is "balanced," in a portion of the programme that features a panel of "experts."

Customarily, the panel consists of the moderator plus two pundits who share his political slant and a pundit who has an opposing slant. All are paid by the network for their contributions. The moderator will ask a question on a current issue, and an argument will ensue for a few minutes. Generally, no real conclusion is reached—neither side accedes to the other. The moderator then moves on to another question.

So, the network has aired the issues of the day, and we have received a balanced view that may inform our own opinions. Or have we?

Shortcomings

In actual fact, there are significant shortcomings in this type of presentation:

1. The scope of coverage is extremely narrow. Only select facets of each issue are discussed.

2. Generally, the discussion reveals precious little actual insight and, in fact, only the standard opposing liberal and conservative positions are discussed, implying that the viewer must choose one or the other to adopt as his own opinion.

3. On a programme that is liberally-oriented, the one conservative pundit on the panel is made to look foolish by the three liberal pundits, ensuring that the liberal viewer’s beliefs are reaffirmed. (The reverse is true on a conservative news programme.)2Each issue facet that is addressed is repeated many times in the course of the day, then extended for as many days, weeks, or months as the issue remains current. The "message," therefore, is repeated virtually as often as an advert for a brand of laundry powder.

So, what is the net effect of such news reportage? Has the viewer become well-informed? In actual fact, not at all.

What he has become is well-indoctrinated

A liberal will be inclined to regularly watch a liberal news channel, which will result in the continual reaffirmation of his liberal views. A conservative will, in turn, regularly watch a conservative news channel, which will result in the continual reaffirmation of his conservative views.

Many viewers will agree that this is so, yet not recognise that, essentially, they are being programmed to simply absorb information. Along the way, their inclination to actually question and think for themselves is being eroded.

Alternate Possibilities

The proof of this is that those who have been programmed, tend to react with anger when they encounter a Nigel Farage or a Ron Paul, who might well challenge them to consider a third option—an interpretation beyond the narrow conservative and liberal views of events. In truth, on any issue, there exists a wide field of alternate possibilities.

By contrast, it is not uncommon for people outside the First World to have better instincts when encountering a news item. If they do not receive the BBC, Fox News, or CNN, they are likely, when learning of a political event, to think through, on their own, what the event means to them.

As they are not pre-programmed to follow one narrow line of reasoning or another, they are open to a broad range of possibilities. Each individual, based upon his personal experience, is likely to draw a different conclusion and, thorough discourse with others, is likely to continue to update his opinion each time he receives a new viewpoint.

As a result, it is not uncommon for those who are not "plugged-in" to be not only more open-minded, but more imaginative in their considerations, even when they are less educated and less "informed" than those in the First World.

Whilst those who do not receive the regular barrage that is the norm in the First World are no more intelligent than their European or American counterparts, their views are more often the result of personal objective reasoning and common sense and are often more insightful.

Those in First World countries often point with pride at the advanced technology that allows them a greater volume of news than the rest of the world customarily receives.

Further, they are likely to take pride in their belief that the two opposing views that are presented indicate that they live in a "free" country, where dissent is encouraged.

Unfortunately, what is encouraged is one of two views—either the liberal view or the conservative view. Other views are discouraged.

The liberal view espouses that a powerful liberal government is necessary to control the greed of capitalists, taxing and regulating them as much as possible to limit their ability to victimise the poorer classes.

The conservative view espouses that a powerful conservative government is needed to control the liberals, who threaten to create chaos and moral collapse through such efforts as gay rights, legalised abortion, etc.

What these two dogmatic concepts have in common is that a powerful government is needed.

Each group, therefore, seeks the increase in the power of its group of legislators to overpower the opposing group. This ensures that, regardless of whether the present government is dominated by liberals of conservatives, the one certainty will be that the government will be powerful.

When seen in this light, if the television viewer were to click the remote back and forth regularly from the liberal channel to the conservative channel, he would begin to see a strong similarity between the two.

It’s easy for any viewer to question the opposition group, to consider them disingenuous—the bearers of false information. It is far more difficult to question the pundits who are on our own "team," to ask ourselves if they, also, are disingenuous.

This is especially difficult when it’s three to one—when three commentators share our political view and all say the same thing to the odd-man-out on the panel. In such a situation, the hardest task is to question our own team, who are clearly succeeding at beating down the odd-man-out.

Evolution of Indoctrination

In bygone eras, the kings of old would tell their minions what to believe and the minions would then either accept or reject the information received. They would rely on their own experience and reasoning powers to inform them.

Later, a better method evolved: the use of media to indoctrinate the populace with government-generated propaganda (think: Josef Goebbels or Uncle Joe Stalin).

Today, a far more effective method exists—one that retains the repetition of the latter method but helps to eliminate the open-ended field of alternate points of view. It does so by providing a choice between "View A" and "View B."

In a democracy, there is always an "A" and a "B." This illusion of choice is infinitely more effective in helping the populace to believe that they have been able to choose their leaders and their points of view.

In the modern method, when voting, regardless of what choice the individual makes, he is voting for an all-powerful government. (Whether it calls itself a conservative one or a liberal one is incidental.)

Likewise, through the modern media, when the viewer absorbs what is presented as discourse, regardless of whether he chooses View A or View B, he is endorsing an all-powerful government.

Two Solutions

One solution to avoid being brainwashed by the dogmatic messaging of the media is to simply avoid watching the news. But this is difficult to do, as our associates and neighbours are watching it every day and will want to discuss with us what they have been taught.

The other choice is to question everything.

To consider that the event that is being discussed may not only be being falsely reported, but that the message being provided by the pundits may be consciously planned for our consumption.

This is difficult to do at first but can eventually become habit. If so, the likelihood of being led down the garden path by the powers-that-be may be greatly diminished. In truth, on any issue, there exists a wide field of alternate possibilities.

Developing your own view may, in the coming years, be vital to your well-being.

 


New Opportunities Are Emerging For Citizens of The World.

Freedom and democracy may appear to be struggling to stay alive in America, but there may be a knock-out punch ready to be released. The evolution of the blockchain-enabled metaverse is going to enable the 'Citizens of the World' to gain their own Freedom by democratizing power and creating a new world with new rules, new players, and new opportunities. For 99.99% of us, the metaverse will improve our real-world lives through the democratization of power and opportunity.

Along with the major long-term trend of society towards decentralization and smaller-scale organizations, there are new opportunities developing to help 'Preparers' in the cryptocurrency sector. Businesses are beginning to issue their own Crypto Coins that can be traded on Cryptocoin Exchanges.

Markethive.com for example will be releasing its HiveCoin (HIV) in the coming weeks. It has tremendous upside potential that is outlined in a Video by Founder Tom Prendergast, "Entrepreneur Advantage…".

Not only that, if you go to their website and register as a FREE Member, you will be given 500 HiveCoins for "FREE" along with access to several Earning Opportunities and online tools to increase your HiveCoin balance.

Be sure to check it out today – Markethive.com

Markethive

Tim Moseley

Is gold about to go mainstream?

Is gold about to go mainstream?

Every week Merrill Lynch publishes a Capital Market Outlook Letter. The letters provide market commentary, research and analysis, and the occasional investment idea. Merrill Lynch (together with parent Bank of America) is the third largest brokerage firm, managing over $3 Trillion in client assets. When a firm of that size speaks up, you should listen.

Starting around March of this year, they disclosed an investment thesis called FAANG 2.0. It's a fascinating idea and gold plays a prominent role. Let's unpack it.

Transitioning from FAANG 1.0 to FAANG 2.0

The original FAANG acronym described the high-growth, tech-centric companies that accounted for an outsized portion of returns over the last decade, and then catapulted even higher once the pandemic hit. FAANG 1.0 included:

Facebook – Apple – Amazon – Netflix – Google

And yet, these companies have experienced meaningful price declines year-to-date.

Merrill has been chronicling the "great rotation" out of FAANG 1.0 and into FAANG 2.0.

What's FAANG 2.0?

If FAANG 1.0 are the new kids on the block, then FAANG 2.0 is the old guard. They include:

Fuels – Aerospace – Agriculture – Nuclear/Renewables – Gold and Metals/Minerals

The reasons to favor FAANG 2.0 in today's market are intuitive. Let's explore a few of the salient points.

Why FAANG 2.0?

Geopolitical tensions

The ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine will drive demand for fuels, agriculture, energy and other "hard assets" such as gold and metals/minerals. It remains unclear how the conflict will resolve and whether it will escalate further. Merrill notes that "gold is now the preferred asset of central banks" in the face of such uncertainty.

Inflationary pressures

They're likely to persist longer than previously thought. And while the focus is typically on what you pay at the pump, world food prices are at all time record highs. For anyone following Keith's work on inflation, it's unlikely the items he highlights (trade war, tariffs, lockdown whiplash, regulatory compliance, and green energy policy) are going to be resolved any time soon.

Supply and Demand Imbalance

There seems to be two primary reasons behind the supply/demand imbalance driving FAANG 2.0. One is the leftover supply chain disruptions from the pandemic. Equipment shortages, labor dislocations, logistics bottlenecks, and higher input costs arestill keeping products from getting to market. Two is simply greater demand than supply for these materials. For example, increased defense spending is driving greater demand for fuels and aerospace. Germany is doubling its annual budget. NATO is requiring all participating countries to devote at least 2% of GDP to defense spending by 2024. Likewise demand for energy alternatives (nuclear and renewables), and EV's is exploding, creating intense demand for the metals/minerals needed to scale production.

This paragraph from the May 2 letter sums up the case for FAANG 2.0 nicely.

In a matter of months, we have gone from a pandemic to Putin; infections to inflation; Big Data to Big Oil; zoom to zinc; masks to mascara; E-commerce to electric vehicles; jabs to javelins; swabs to sanctions; Webex to weddings; boosters to bombs; Non-fungible tokens (NFTs) to liquefied natural gas (LNG); Centers for Disease Control (CDC) to North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO); work-from home to work-from-office; the cloud to cobalt; and lite assets to hard assets.

Gold's Role in FAANG 2.0

Gold plays a prominent role in Merrill's FAANG 2.0 investing framework. Specifically, they cite investor concerns over inflation and war as reasons for why the "safe-haven" asset should enjoy consistent demand over 2022. Gold has posted strong YTD performance relative to other assets (gold is up about 1% compared to an average of -41% for the FAANG 1.0 crowd).

Why is gold considered a safe-haven asset?

The answer is simple but profound.

Gold is solvency you can hold in your hand.

In a world that poses significant risks of default, whether from inflationary pressures on businesses, aggravated by higher interest rates, or an escalation between Russia and NATO, gold is the asset you own when you don't want to take that risk.

Merrill's endorsement of gold as a major part of its FAANG 2.0 investment thesis could be a significant driver for gold going more mainstream. Despite many large asset managers paying lip service to the importance of owning gold in a diversified portfolio, and the fact that the benefits of owning gold have been well documented, it still remains one of the most under-owned assets.

There's another way gold could go mainstream though; it's called gold 2.0.

Transitioning from Gold 1.0 to Gold 2.0
 

What's gold 2.0?

It's gold with yield, specifically a Yield in Gold, Paid in Gold®. We've said it over and over again, everyone should own some physical gold as an insurance against the solvency risks outlined above. But insurance only protects wealth, it cannot grow your wealth. Monetary Metals offers gold with yield—gold 2.0—which protects and grows your wealth.

You can own physical gold, in secure vaults, outside the financial system, with the option of earning 2% to 3% interest, paid in more gold (silver too).

Whether from increased safe-haven demand, or greater demand for gold with yield, the 2020's could be the decade that gold breaks back into the mainstream in a big way.

By Keith Weiner

Contributing to kitco.com

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

Tim Moseley

Supervising Crypto In Europe

Supervising Crypto In Europe

 

End of June 2022, Cointelegraph.com published an article on the new agreement reached by the European Council to form an Anti-Money Laundering (AML) body that will have the authority to supervise certain crypto-asset services providers (CASPs).

But let's start with a summary first. The first flurry of regulation of crypto-assets appeared in Europe even before the pandemic in December 2019. Debugging took place throughout the first half of the following year, and in September 2020, the European Commission adopted it under the legislative designation draft regulation on markets in crypto-assets (MiCA for short).

A definite topic in the world of finance is currently the government regulation of cryptocurrencies, which is taking place across the globe. The approach in different states is diversified –  some states give cryptocurrencies a clear green light, others treat them more cautiously and introduce many regulatory regulations, and finally, there are states that have said a clear “no” to cryptocurrencies and banned them on their territory. 

The market segment with cryptocurrencies, estimated at $2.1 billion, is still subject to inconsistent regulation, which prevents the creation of legislative regulations that should prevent money laundering while protecting investors and creditors. 

However, increasing regulatory pressure is preventing crypto companies from innovating their products. For example, the cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase global warned that over-regulation would hamper innovation.

Image Source: Cointelegraph

Wild West Of Crypto Is Nigh

We are putting an end to the wild west of unregulated crypto, closing major loopholes in the European anti-money laundering rules,” said European Parliament member Ernest Urtasun.

The European Council said it had agreed on a partial position of a proposal to launch a dedicated Anti-Money Laundering Authority or AMLA. According to the regulatory body, the AML body will have the authority to supervise “high-risk and cross-border financial entities,” including crypto firms — “if they are considered risky.”

First proposed in July 2021, the AMLA should be operational in 2024 and “start the work of direct supervision slightly later,” according to the European Commission. 

It is evident that the taming of cryptocurrencies in the EU is imminent. By regulators who don't understand it much.

Europen Central Bank, Frankfurt,  Germany

The European Central Bank (ECB) is calling for decisive regulation of cryptocurrencies. People are speculating on life savings because of them, which is not to the liking of the head of the bank, Christine Lagarde. Its approach does not seem to many analysts, according to which most regulators propose measures that are not really applicable in practice.

The first application of the new regulatory conditions around cryptocurrencies could come in the next few months. The European Commission has already presented such measures, and the European Parliament should finalize them soon.

This is MiCA regulation and, therefore, regulation aimed explicitly at crypto-assets. But analysts recall that most regulators do not understand cryptocurrencies at all and are therefore rather skeptical about the proposals.

In addition to Christine Lagarde, other ECB officials have previously expressed concerns about cryptocurrencies. One of them is executive board member Fabio Panetta, who said in April that crypto assets are creating a new wild west and compared them to the subprime mortgage crisis of 2008. 

On the other hand, European monetary policymakers have confidence in their new digital euro project, which could take place as early as the next four years.

"Basically, almost all traditional institutions view cryptocurrencies as something dangerous and potentially exploitable or as a tool for money laundering and unfair activities. In doing so, these fears are completely odd and senseless. Regulators mainly want to achieve the greatest possible monitoring of financial movements, " said Czech analyst Martin Kysela.

Cryptocurrencies And Crime

The suppression of illegal cryptocurrency trading is taking place on more fronts than it might seem at first glance. The fight against money laundering has already moved to Europe. 

German authorities announced a raid on the world's largest darknet market, in which they seized bitcoins worth 25 million euros. This raid was carried out in cooperation with the German cybercrime centre and the federal criminal police office (BKA). For what reason did the raid occur, and what was its result?

In a raid on the world's largest darknet network called Hydra market, 543 bitcoins were seized. This illegal network has reportedly been operating since 2015 and has read an incredible 17 million customers. 

In the Hydra market, more than 19 000 sellers were registered who focused on the sale of illegal narcotics. According to the press release, other items were seized during the raid, which brought profits to the sellers.

 

                      

 

Nanny Mentality Undermines Freedom Of Choice

On Dutch television, the president of the European Central Bank (ECB), Christine Lagarde, said this in May.

Cryptocurrencies are based on nothing and should be regulated so that people avoid speculating with their life savings.” 

She is afraid that people who do not understand the risk can lose everything and be very disappointed. Therefore, she believes that cryptocurrencies should be regulated.

First of all – if Ch. Lagarde and others believe that cryptocurrencies are worthless, they would not be so afraid of them, which leads them to the regulations to which the cryptocurrency market is already subject today. 

Many people see cryptocurrencies as a sign of freedom (and it doesn't matter what anyone thinks about it), and the EU obviously doesn't like that. It seems the representatives of the EU think people are unruly and should be regulated. 🙂

In the black scenario, some crypto specialists think that regulation could significantly damage crypto services in the EU. It may trample on user privacy and expose users to the risk of personal information being hacked. As a result, it may have a minimal impact on the fight against money laundering, which the EU seeks with this law.

Cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase stressed that it is cash that continues to be a popular means of money laundering. Blockchain technology, unlike cash, has allowed authorities to track suspicious transactions using advanced analytical tools.

Cryptocurrencies are highly speculative investments (and therefore attractive). The principle of any highly speculative investment is that money moves from those who lose a lot of money on the speculation to those who make a lot of money on it. It is difficult to regulate anything on this.

It’s All About Control

Crypto is unwanted by the top politicians because it gives the owner immense freedom to dispose of their finances in their own way and store them wherever they want – without the need for control by any regulator.

By the way, this control requirement is fully in line with the current direction of EU policy. Therefore, it is undesirable for someone to have access to finances that can not be regulated. The regulation or abolition of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies would bring us a step nearer to totality.

 

Source:

cointelegraph.com

Idnes.cz

Cryptosvet.cz

Forbes.cz

 

 

Tim Moseley