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Gold gains on technical buying friendly outside markets

Gold gains on technical buying, friendly outside markets

Gold prices are posting decent gains in midday U.S. trading Monday, supported by chart-based buying amid bullish technicals, and by friendly daily “outside market” forces that see the U.S. dollar index lower and crude oil prices higher. Silver prices are trading slightly up. April gold was last up $16.80 at $2,176.70. May silver was last up $0.042 at $24.885.

Broker SP Angel this morning said in an email dispatch that China and other central banks continue to buy gold. “Recent interest rate moves by major central banks of Japan, Taiwan and Turkey along with the expectations for U.S. rate cuts are making gold increasingly attractive. Investors also remain concerned at the level of high government debt supported by the U.S. and China.”

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $82.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching around 4.25%.

Technically, April gold futures bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. A five-week-old uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the contract and record high of $2,225.30. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $2,149.20. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $2,182.50 and then at Friday’s high of $2,188.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $2,164.40 and then at Friday’s low of $2.158.40. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0.

May silver futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the March high of $25.975. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $23.50. First resistance is seen at Friday’s high of $25.11 and then at $25.50. Next support is seen at last week’s low of $24.58 and then at $24.22. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

May N.Y. copper closed up 80 points at 401.55 cents today. Prices closed near mid-range. The copper bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage but appear tired now. Prices are in a six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the March high of 416.40 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 385.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 404.70 cents and then at Friday’s high of 406.65 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 399.05 cents and then at 396.75 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

Kitco Media

Jim Wyckoff

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Gold price gains against the Swiss franc highlight its potential when the Fed starts cutting rate

Gold price gains against the Swiss franc highlight its potential when the Fed starts cutting rate

Gold price gains against the Swiss franc highlight its potential when the Fed starts cutting rates teaser image

The Federal Reserve’s signal that it still sees the potential for three rate cuts this year, even as inflation remains above its 2% target, has helped propel gold prices to new record highs.

However, some analysts have said that the gold’s true light will shine when the central bank actually embarks on its easing cycle. Some analysts have said that gold’s reaction to the Swiss National Bank’s move to ease is an indication of what to expect.

Thursday, Switzerland’s Swiss National Bank surprised markets with a 25 basis point cut, bringing interest rates to 1.5%. The SNB is the first major central bank to cut interest rates.

The central bank said it eased its monetary policy as inflation is expected to remain below its 2% target this year.

“For some months now, inflation has been back below 2% and thus in the range the SNB equates with price stability. According to the new forecast, inflation is also likely to remain in this range over the next few years,” the bank said in its monetary policy statement.

The central bank also reduced its annual inflation forecasts. It now sees average inflation reaching 1.4% this year, down from its December estimate of 1.9%. Inflation is expected to slow even further next year, rising 1.2%, down from the previous 1.6% estimate. In its first look at 2026, the SNB projects average inflation at 1.1%.

Economists from Capital Economics said that they expect the SNB will continue to lower interest rates this year as inflation pressures remain weak.

“As it happens, we think inflation is actually likely to be lower than the SNB is forecasting, and so we expect it to cut rates again in September and December, taking the policy rate to 1.0%, where we expect it to stay throughout 2024,” the economists said in a note.

The SNB’s interest rate cut has had a solid impact on the gold market. Gold prices have pushed significantly higher against the Swiss franc Thursday.

Holding near session highs, spot gold last traded at CHF55,352.36, up +2.06%.

Although some analysts have described the SNB’s move as a surprise, it is not unexpected for others. March Chandler, managing director at Bannockburn Global Forex, said that he has been warning investors that cuts were coming.

“Rate cuts from the Fed are coming, so the SNB has to beat them to it too because they need to give their currency some cushion against weakness in the U.S. dollar,” he said.

While it's not exactly an “apples to apples” comparison, some analysts have said that gold price action against the dollar when the Fed cuts could be similar to what has been seen against the Swiss franc.

Chandler said that the biggest difference is that he expects gold’s rally to lead what appears to be a likely cut in June. He added that he expects bond yields and the U.S. dollar to weaken ahead of the Fed’s June meeting, which will support higher gold prices.

Phillip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures, said that gold’s move against the Swiss franc highlights broader market conditions. He pointed out that the weakness in the Swissy helped propel the broader U.S. dollar index to a one-month high, which has hurt gold.

Despite hitting all-time highs overnight above $2,220 an ounce, gold is ending the day in the red against the greenback. Spot gold last traded at $2,183.14 an ounce, down 0.13 on the day.

However, Streible said that gold still has plenty of room to run when it’s the Fed’s turn to cut rates.

“Research we have looked at says since the 1990s, gold has rallied 6% in the first 30 days after the Federal Reserve’s first rate cut in an easing cycle,” he said.

Kitco Media

Neils Christensen

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Gold price rallies after FOMC statement deemed not too hawkish

Gold price rallies after FOMC statement deemed not too hawkish

Gold and silver prices are higher and neare daily highs in U.S. trading Wednesday, following a Federal Reserve monetary policy statement that the precious metals bulls saw as price-friendly. April gold was last up $13.30 at $2,173.10. May silver was last up $0.29 at $25.425.

The just-concluded Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting saw the Federal Reserve keep its monetary policy unchanged, as expected. The key Fed Funds interest rate range was kept steady at 5.25% to 5.50%. The FOMC statement seemingly walked a neutral line on policy: not too hawkish and not too dovish. The statement said the U.S. economy is growing and inflation has eased but is still elevated. The statement said no rate cuts will occur until the Fed has more confidence inflation has been tamed. Still, the statement said the Fed sees three interest rat cuts this year. Judging by the reaction of the gold market, traders deemed the FOMC statement as not being too hawkish, and that the Fed appears willing to tolerate slightly higher inflation for longer. Now the marketplace awaits the afternoon press conference from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. Traders will closely scrutinize Powell’s remarks for clues on the future path and timing of Fed monetary policy.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker after being higher before the FOMC statement. The USDX had seen a solid rebound from the March low and the bulls have the technical advantage. Nymex crude oil prices are solidly lower and trading around $81.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching around 4.3%.

The Bank of England holds its regular monetary policy meeting Thursday.

Technically, April gold futures bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. A four-week-old uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. A bullish pennant pattern has formed on the daily bar chart, but needs to see an upside breakout very soon to complete the formation. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the contract high of $2,203.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $2,100.00. First resistance is seen at $2,180.00 and then at $2,190.00. First support is seen at this week’s low of $2,149.20 and then at $2.140.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0.

May silver futures bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the December high of $26.575. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $24.00. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $25.66 and then at $26.00. Next support is seen at $25.00 and then at $24.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

May N.Y. copper closed down 20 points at 407.25 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session high. The copper bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a steep five-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 425.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 400.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 408.95 cents and then at Tuesday’s high of 413.65 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 402.70 cents and then at 400.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.

Kitco Media

Jim Wyckoff

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Investors speculate on Fed’s decision next week as inflation remains persistent

Investors speculate on Fed’s decision next week as inflation remains persistent

A primary purpose of holding or investing in gold is to protect one’s portfolio against high inflation. It has always been considered an inflationary hedge. Simply put, one can extrapolate that if interest rates remain elevated or spike higher it will provide bullish tailwinds supportive of higher gold pricing.

This is true with one exception; when the Federal Reserve is initiating either quantitative tightening or quantitative easing. Currently, the Federal Reserve is completing a multiyear period of quantitative tightening in which they have raised interest rates from historic lows of 0% to a ¼%, all the way to between 5 ¼% and 5 ½%.

Higher interest rates exude a bearish influence on gold because gold does not contain any intrinsic yield. When fixed income assets such as treasuries have high yields it diminishes the allure for gold. This scenario is the economic environment that we find ourselves in today.

One-Two Punch

This week two important reports revealed new data concerning current inflationary pressures. The Consumer Price Index revealed that inflation for February came in hotter than expected. Yesterday’s release of the most current Producer Price Index revealed that producers raised the price of their goods by 0.6% during the month of February. Because a hot PPI is a precursor to a hot CPI we can expect that inflation this month could continue to be elevated.

This has pressured gold off the highs achieved last Friday. Tuesday's release of the CPI took gold futures down $25, and on Wednesday gold recovered gaining back approximately $15 of Tuesday’s decline. For the remainder of the week, gold softened but still did not trade to a lower low than the low achieved on Tuesday.

One week ago, gold futures challenged $2200 per ounce and traded to a high of $2203. The price of gold above $2200 for the first time in history was short-lived, but the fact that gold has remained above $2150 all week is a sign that a base is being formed, and we may see that price tested again soon. Gold has been extremely resilient and able to hold onto most of its recent gains even with moderate headwinds from dollar strength, and higher treasury yields.

As of 6 PM EDT, gold futures basis the most active April contract is currently fixed at $2159.40 after factoring in today’s modest decline of $7.10 or 0.33%.

Market participants will now begin to enter a “wait-and-see mode” as the Federal Reserve will begin the March FOMC meeting. According to the CME’s FedWatch tool, it is almost a certainty that they will not announce or initiate any rate cuts for March. They will however release their most current economic outlook and release a revised “dot plot” an integral component of the SEP (summary of economic projections). The dot plot released in February anticipated that the first set of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve would begin this year and anticipated that they would cut rates by three-quarters of a percent. They also projected continued rate cuts in 2025, and 2026 as they “normalize” its benchmark interest rates (fed funds rate) just above 3%.

If there are no major changes in the dot plot released next week in essence that information should already be factored into current pricing and be supportive of gold prices maintaining value.
 

Gary S. Wagner

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Gold Price News: Gold Pulls Back From All-Time Highs

Gold Price News: Gold Pulls Back From All-Time Highs
 

Frank Watson

Gold News

Market Analysi

Gold prices pulled back slightly on Tuesday from their recent all-time highs after figures showed US inflation at higher-than-expected levels in February, prompting questions over any interest rate cuts.

Prices eased as low as $2,153 an ounce during the day Tuesday, compared with around $2,182 an ounce in late deals on Monday.


 

KAU price $/g – from Kinesis Exchange

US core inflation figures, which strip out volatile items such as energy and food, were released Tuesday. The figures came in at 0.4% in February compared with January, higher than the market’s expected 0.3%. And on a year-on-year basis, February came in at 3.8%, slightly above market expectations of 3.7%.

Higher than expected inflation suggests greater pressure on the US Fed to maintain higher interest rates for longer, weighing on non-yield-bearing assets like gold.

The US dollar also increased against other major currencies on Tuesday, weighing on dollar-denominated gold prices, while US 10-year Treasury yields also rebounded, adding further to the selling pressure on gold.

The pullback in prices follows all-time highs for gold, which briefly hit $2,195 an ounce on Friday as the markets bet on rate cuts materialising as soon as June, with additional support coming from recent central bank buying and safe-haven flows amid current heightened geopolitical tensions.

Elsewhere, the markets will be looking ahead to Thursday for the release of US producer prices for February as well as monthly retail sales, providing a further update on the state of the US economy.

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Gold Price News: Gold Closes in on 2200 an Ounce Level

Gold Price News: Gold Closes in on $2,200 an Ounce Level

Gold prices extended their recent gains on Friday to cap a particularly bullish week in which prices notched up fresh all-time highs.

Prices rallied as high as $2,195 an ounce on Friday, although prices eased back to trade at around $2,180 an ounce later in the day. That compares with around $2,160 an ounce in late deals on Thursday.

Gold hits all-time high – KAU price $/g – from Kinesis Exchange

US unemployment figures released Friday came in at 3.9%, well above market expectations of 3.7%, and this contributed towards expectations that the US Fed will need to cut interest rates in the coming months – a supportive element for precious metals prices.

This followed US Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments on Wednesday and Thursday highlighting that US interest rates have likely peaked and that cuts are on the horizon, albeit that the central bank will need to see greater evidence that inflation levels are moving toward the targeted 2% before adjusting rates.

US non-farm payrolls figures released Friday showed a larger than expected increase in jobs in February. This would normally be expected to put downward pressure on gold prices as a safe-haven asset. However, the gold market shrugged off the latest figures, as bullish momentum continued as the markets bet on a more dovish monetary policy emerging from the US Fed before the summer.

In addition, the US dollar continued to slide against other major currencies through the week, providing a lift for dollar-denominated gold.

Looking ahead, Monday is looking light on significant data releases and the markets will be looking ahead to Tuesday’s US monthly inflation figures for further insight into the future path for monetary policy.

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Gold Price News: Gold Extends All-Time Highs

Gold Price News: Gold Extends All-Time Highs

Gold prices extended their recent gains on Thursday to hit fresh all-time highs of over $2,160 an ounce.

Prices notched up a high of $2,164 an ounce on Thursday, compared with around $2,148 an ounce in late deals Wednesday.

Several bullish factors have combined to propel gold prices to record highs in recent days. In particular, weaker economic data from the US has prompted traders to up their bets on an interest rate cut in June. Data from interest rate traders now indicate a probability of just over 70% for the US Fed to start cutting rates at its June 12th meeting, of which most expect a 25 basis-point cut and a minority gunning for a 50 basis-point cut.

Any lowering of interest rates reduces the appeal of holding cash or government bonds, and boosts interest in non-yielding assets like precious metals.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell was quoted on Wednesday saying the central bank needs more evidence that inflation is easing before going ahead with interest rate cuts, although he also signalled that rates have likely reached their peak at the current 5.25-5.5%, in comments to a congressional hearing.

The market’s expectations on monetary policy have also coincided with a period of strong central bank buying of gold in recent months, which has been further augmented by a risk premium due to geopolitical instability and the risks this poses to commerce and financial markets.

Looking ahead, the markets will be watching out for monthly US non-farm payrolls figures on Friday as well as the unemployment rate for February for a further health check on the state of the US economy.

Frank’s experience covering the commodities markets spans 22 years, with a particular specialism in metals, carbon and energy markets. He has worked as a senior editor for S&P Global Commodity Insights (formerly Platts) and before this, at ICIS-LOR, a part of Reed Business Information (Reed Elsevier), where he covered the petrochemicals markets from 2003 to 2005.

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Gold’s shock rally has analysts grasping for explanations

Gold’s shock rally has analysts grasping for explanations

Gold’s surprising rally to new all-time highs has even seasoned industry professionals scratching their heads as to the true cause.

“It is clear that despite the West's disaffection for gold […] demand in China is more than offsetting the shortfall, with monumental volumes flowing from West to the East,” wrote Metals Daily CEO Ross Norman in a LinkedIn post. “As such, this rally seems to have caught Western experts and forecasters by surprise – a stealth rally if you like – which suggests to me the buying is beyond the immediate purview of most of us.”

Norman said the “conventional explanation” is that gold is rallying ahead of an expected rate cut at the June Fed meeting, which would weaken the dollar and strengthen gold, “but the dollar is actually up YTD and silver is not validating the move higher in the complex as evidenced by a decline in the gold/silver ratio as we would have expected.”

Another possible explanation would be the decline in U.S. treasury yields, “down 1.2% in the last month and with gold up nearly 6% … but again no evidence that institutions are behind this as ETF demand remains lacklustre.”

Norman said that there’s no doubt that short covering in the futures market has helped boost the rally, but the move is too big for that to be the main driver, “so something else is at play.”

“A significant part of the answer is of course Chinese buying and not just the traditional 'dama' or Chinese grandmothers – Gen Z investors have joined the fray,” he wrote. “But Chinese premiums are slipping (down from a strong $45 premium to $38) as have Indian premiums (down from $5 discount to a $16 discount) suggesting Asia is behaving in a moderately price-elastic manner and easing back on purchases in the face of price strength.”

Norman said he believes the shock rally is being driven by central bank buying, which continues to be very strong according to the latest January numbers.

“With the US moving beyond simple sanctions and threatening to sequester $300 billion in Russian financial assets (to be sold and paid across to support Ukraine) … some Central Banks … even the non-aligned ones, will be alarmed for fear that they might be in the firing line themselves at some point potentially,” he wrote. “It follows therefore that they might prudently wish to diversify into non-dollar assets.”

James Steel, an analyst at HSBC Holdings PLC, told Bloomberg in a report that the scale of the move is surprising given that there hasn’t been a significant change in rate cut expectations or another clear macroeconomic driver.

“The velocity and the speed were very sudden, very fast,” Steel said. “It didn’t seem to have a smoking gun.”

Ole Hansen, commodity strategist at Saxo Bank, said that the ISM manufacturing PMI data for February released on March 1, which came in well below expectations, highlighted the rising risk of a stock market correction, and may have prompted some investors to move from equities to gold.

TD Securities commodity strategist Ryan McKay believes that macro funds and momentum buying by commodity trading advisors contributed to gold’s sudden gains, with the latest Commodity Futures Trading Commission data showing hedge funds and money managers increasing their net bullish gold bets as of Feb. 27. Still, McKay noted that these investors added short positions roughly in line with new longs, meaning they’re not all in on gold’s upward move either.

The report noted that gold’s recent rally has also highlighted the growing disconnect between spot prices and gold-backed ETF outflows. “Holdings in SPDR Gold Shares, the world’s largest such ETF, fell by 0.3 per cent on March 4, taking the total to the lowest level since July 2019, according to data compiled by Bloomberg,” they wrote. “Those outflows have partly been offset by persistent central bank demand for the precious metal, which helped keep prices elevated even as real interest rates spiked last year.”

They also pointed out that physical demand for gold bars and coins also absorbed the gold that was sold by ETFs, and a strong Lunar New Year saw Chinese consumers buying gold as a hedge against the country’s beleaguered stock markets and real estate sector.

Ewa Manthey, commodities strategist at ING, believes the rally is being driven by a combination of rate cut expectations and geopolitical turmoil. “Speculation over a Fed rates pivot and continued geopolitical tensions keep gold shining,” said Manthey. “We expect gold prices to trade higher this year as safe-haven demand continues to be supportive amid geopolitical uncertainty with ongoing wars and the upcoming U.S. election.”

Spot gold hit a high of $2,150 per ounce around noon EST as Fed Chair Jerome Powell presented the central bank’s semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the U.S. House Financial Services Committee. It last traded at $2,148.90, up 0.84% on the day at the time of writing.

Kitco Media

Ernest Hoffman

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Gold continues to rise but technical studies suggest gold is overbought

Gold continues to rise, but technical studies suggest gold is overbought

Gold continues its dynamic rally moving to higher ground for the fourth consecutive day, with the last three consecutive days resulting in a new record settlement price. As of 4:00 PM ET, gold futures basis the most active April contract is currently trading up $11.70 and fixed at $2138.20. However, today gold futures are trading well off of $2150.50 its intraday high, the first occasion in the last few days in which gold has not closed near or at its daily high.

The current rally became dynamically stronger last Friday, March 1st when gold futures opened just at its 50-day simple moving average and gained $41 in trading. The $41 gain occurred after a report by the Institute for Supply Management which revealed its manufacturing index dropped to 47.8 in February, “signifying an economic contraction.” This is according to Ryan McIntyre, managing partner at Sprott Asset Management.

Follow-through buying was evident yesterday with gold futures scoring over a $30 gain taking the precious yellow metal to $2126.30.

However, this latest rally is not broad-based but rather fueled by a “jump in speculative betting”, according to Adrian Ash, director of research at BullionVault. Speaking to MarketWatch he said there is “no gold rush among Western investors right now, not in physical bullion and not outside Comex futures and options.”

Ash added that “gold exchange-traded funds continue to “shrink to pre-pandemic size; coin shops are slashing their premiums and buy-back prices to try clearing the flood of customer selling.”

The current rally is fueled largely by overwhelming optimism that the Federal Reserve will begin its pivot from interest rate hikes to its first interest rate cut since March 2022. However, this optimism is not in-line with recent comments of multiple Federal Reserve members including Chairman Powell. Fed officials continue to express the narrative that “they are in no rush to cut rates”.

Investors are hoping to gain more insight when Chairman Powell heads to Capitol Hill for his semi-annual testimony to the House and Senate beginning tomorrow. According to the CME’s FedWatch tool, there is a 97% probability that the Federal Reserve will not begin to cut rates at their March FOMC meeting and a 79.1% probability that the Fed’s benchmark Fed funds rate will remain unchanged at the May meeting.

However, this probability indicator dramatically favors a rate cut by June with only a 27.2% probability that they will not cut rates in June.

That being said, there are technical indicators that suggest that the recent rise in gold prices has put the precious yellow metal in an overbought situation. The chart above is a daily Japanese candlestick chart of gold with a stochastic oscillator. This study indicates that gold is very much overbought well over 80%, with the %K line crossing below the %D line which signals a strong potential for gold prices to decline. According to Investopedia, “ Stochastic oscillator charting generally consists of two lines: one reflecting the actual value of the oscillator for each session, and one reflecting its three-day simple moving average. Because price is thought to follow momentum, the intersection of these two lines is considered to be a signal that a reversal may be in the works, as it indicates a large shift in momentum from day to day.”

The chart above is also a daily Japanese candlestick chart with the RSI (Relative Strength Index) at 76.23. The RSI is a momentum indicator that measures the speed and magnitude of recent price changes used to evaluate if the market is over or undervalued. The RSI has moved above 70 indicating that gold is overbought and also suggests that gold could be primed for a trend reversal or a technical price pullback according to Investopedia.

While both of these technical studies strongly indicate that gold is overbought, the caveat to these momentum indicators is that gold could continue to rise and continue to be overbought. However, the fact that both of these indicators suggest that gold is extremely overbought warrants our attention as a potential indication that gold could pivot from its current bullish demeanor and signal imminent price correction.

Wishing you as always good trading,

Kitco Media

Gary Wagner

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Gold bears are hibernating this week as the market sees record closing price

Gold bears are hibernating this week as the market sees record closing price

A record weekly close for gold is fueling significant bullish sentiment in the marketplace; however, some analysts have said that this breakout still needs to be tested, and investors should be careful about chasing prices.

Results of the Kitco News Weekly Gold Survey show that both Wall Street analysts and retail investors are cautiously optimistic about gold next week.

Gold prices managed to push above $2,050 an ounce Thursday after The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge showed a benign rise in consumer prices. After a slow start Friday, the precious metal started to attract some followthrough buying momentum following weaker-than-expected manufacturing and sentiment data.

April gold futures last traded at $2,095.20 an ounce, up 2% from last week. The precious metal’s best performance since late November has created a new record closing price.

While the rally has breathed new life into the precious metals market, some analysts have said that the price action remains sensitive as profit-taking and volatility could push prices back to within their well-defined channel.

Adam Button, chief currency strategist at Forexlive.com, said that Friday’s rally shows how much potential gold has; however, he added that he doesn’t see the rally as being backed by strong fundamentals.

“I just don’t see how a miss in ISM manufacturing could drive prices this high. I would be more convinced this rally was sustainable if it came after really disappointing employment numbers,” he said. “I think investors do need to pay attention because this shows how many investors are waiting for the dollar to crack before jumping into the market.”

James Stanley, senior market strategist at Forex.com, said that he is also not chasing the market, even as he anticipates higher prices in the near-term.

“I don’t think the pivot at the Fed is here yet. And while I have been very bullish on gold the past few weeks, even after the 2k test, spot [prices] trading over $2,075 is something I don’t want to chase here. That was the level that caught the high in 2020 and has remained a significant roadblock for bulls in the three and a half years since,” he said. “The NFP report is going to be a big deal for macro next week, but that’s not until Friday, so there could be some testing around $2100, but I’m not optimistic enough on drive beyond that level to chase the move while near that long-term resistance.”

This week, 14 analysts participated in the Kitco News Gold Survey and not one is bearish on gold in the near term. The survey showed 11 analysts, or 79%, were bullish on gold. At the same time, three analysts, or 21%, were neutral on the precious metal.

Meanwhile, Main Street investor sentiment continues to improve steadily. This week, 175 votes were cast in Kitco’s online survey. In a slight improvement from last week, 77 retail investors,representing 44%, looked for gold to rise next week. Another 43, or 25%, predicted it would be lower, while 55 respondents, or 31%, were neutral on the near-term prospects for the precious metal.

Marc Chandler, Managing Director at Bannockburn Global Forex, said $2,088 could represent a major resistance point for gold next week.

“Beyond that is the record high set on that spike in early December to $2135.60. I think we will see a need for the dollar’s resilience to buckle, and that may take greater confidence in a near-term Fed cut. Some Wall Street economists have begun giving up on a cut, and former Treasury Secretary Summers has cautioned that the next move may still be a hike,” he said.

Phillip Strieble, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures, said that while gold’s rally is impressive, he would like to see gold hold higher support to confirm that this isn’t another bull trap.

Some analysts have said that while gold is seeing an impressive rally, it faces significant resistance at $2,100 an ounce.

Sean Lusk, co-director of commercial hedging at Walsh Trading, said that he sees potential for gold to go higher but remains hesitant to chase the market.

“We have been consolidating for a while now, so this could have some teeth to it,” he said.

Lusk added that investors could look at options to get some exposure to gold and take advantage of the market's momentum. He added that a medium-term play would be to buy $2,100 August gold calls and sell $2,275 February gold puts.

“A modest 5% rally takes the market to $2,175,” he said. “Should August 2100 call trade $70 in the money, we could collect $5K to $6K per spread upon exit, in my opinion.”

Kitco Media

Neils Christensen

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley