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Gold Price News: Gold Closes in on 2200 an Ounce Level

Gold Price News: Gold Closes in on $2,200 an Ounce Level

Gold prices extended their recent gains on Friday to cap a particularly bullish week in which prices notched up fresh all-time highs.

Prices rallied as high as $2,195 an ounce on Friday, although prices eased back to trade at around $2,180 an ounce later in the day. That compares with around $2,160 an ounce in late deals on Thursday.

Gold hits all-time high – KAU price $/g – from Kinesis Exchange

US unemployment figures released Friday came in at 3.9%, well above market expectations of 3.7%, and this contributed towards expectations that the US Fed will need to cut interest rates in the coming months – a supportive element for precious metals prices.

This followed US Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments on Wednesday and Thursday highlighting that US interest rates have likely peaked and that cuts are on the horizon, albeit that the central bank will need to see greater evidence that inflation levels are moving toward the targeted 2% before adjusting rates.

US non-farm payrolls figures released Friday showed a larger than expected increase in jobs in February. This would normally be expected to put downward pressure on gold prices as a safe-haven asset. However, the gold market shrugged off the latest figures, as bullish momentum continued as the markets bet on a more dovish monetary policy emerging from the US Fed before the summer.

In addition, the US dollar continued to slide against other major currencies through the week, providing a lift for dollar-denominated gold.

Looking ahead, Monday is looking light on significant data releases and the markets will be looking ahead to Tuesday’s US monthly inflation figures for further insight into the future path for monetary policy.

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Gold’s shock rally has analysts grasping for explanations

Gold’s shock rally has analysts grasping for explanations

Gold’s surprising rally to new all-time highs has even seasoned industry professionals scratching their heads as to the true cause.

“It is clear that despite the West's disaffection for gold […] demand in China is more than offsetting the shortfall, with monumental volumes flowing from West to the East,” wrote Metals Daily CEO Ross Norman in a LinkedIn post. “As such, this rally seems to have caught Western experts and forecasters by surprise – a stealth rally if you like – which suggests to me the buying is beyond the immediate purview of most of us.”

Norman said the “conventional explanation” is that gold is rallying ahead of an expected rate cut at the June Fed meeting, which would weaken the dollar and strengthen gold, “but the dollar is actually up YTD and silver is not validating the move higher in the complex as evidenced by a decline in the gold/silver ratio as we would have expected.”

Another possible explanation would be the decline in U.S. treasury yields, “down 1.2% in the last month and with gold up nearly 6% … but again no evidence that institutions are behind this as ETF demand remains lacklustre.”

Norman said that there’s no doubt that short covering in the futures market has helped boost the rally, but the move is too big for that to be the main driver, “so something else is at play.”

“A significant part of the answer is of course Chinese buying and not just the traditional 'dama' or Chinese grandmothers – Gen Z investors have joined the fray,” he wrote. “But Chinese premiums are slipping (down from a strong $45 premium to $38) as have Indian premiums (down from $5 discount to a $16 discount) suggesting Asia is behaving in a moderately price-elastic manner and easing back on purchases in the face of price strength.”

Norman said he believes the shock rally is being driven by central bank buying, which continues to be very strong according to the latest January numbers.

“With the US moving beyond simple sanctions and threatening to sequester $300 billion in Russian financial assets (to be sold and paid across to support Ukraine) … some Central Banks … even the non-aligned ones, will be alarmed for fear that they might be in the firing line themselves at some point potentially,” he wrote. “It follows therefore that they might prudently wish to diversify into non-dollar assets.”

James Steel, an analyst at HSBC Holdings PLC, told Bloomberg in a report that the scale of the move is surprising given that there hasn’t been a significant change in rate cut expectations or another clear macroeconomic driver.

“The velocity and the speed were very sudden, very fast,” Steel said. “It didn’t seem to have a smoking gun.”

Ole Hansen, commodity strategist at Saxo Bank, said that the ISM manufacturing PMI data for February released on March 1, which came in well below expectations, highlighted the rising risk of a stock market correction, and may have prompted some investors to move from equities to gold.

TD Securities commodity strategist Ryan McKay believes that macro funds and momentum buying by commodity trading advisors contributed to gold’s sudden gains, with the latest Commodity Futures Trading Commission data showing hedge funds and money managers increasing their net bullish gold bets as of Feb. 27. Still, McKay noted that these investors added short positions roughly in line with new longs, meaning they’re not all in on gold’s upward move either.

The report noted that gold’s recent rally has also highlighted the growing disconnect between spot prices and gold-backed ETF outflows. “Holdings in SPDR Gold Shares, the world’s largest such ETF, fell by 0.3 per cent on March 4, taking the total to the lowest level since July 2019, according to data compiled by Bloomberg,” they wrote. “Those outflows have partly been offset by persistent central bank demand for the precious metal, which helped keep prices elevated even as real interest rates spiked last year.”

They also pointed out that physical demand for gold bars and coins also absorbed the gold that was sold by ETFs, and a strong Lunar New Year saw Chinese consumers buying gold as a hedge against the country’s beleaguered stock markets and real estate sector.

Ewa Manthey, commodities strategist at ING, believes the rally is being driven by a combination of rate cut expectations and geopolitical turmoil. “Speculation over a Fed rates pivot and continued geopolitical tensions keep gold shining,” said Manthey. “We expect gold prices to trade higher this year as safe-haven demand continues to be supportive amid geopolitical uncertainty with ongoing wars and the upcoming U.S. election.”

Spot gold hit a high of $2,150 per ounce around noon EST as Fed Chair Jerome Powell presented the central bank’s semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the U.S. House Financial Services Committee. It last traded at $2,148.90, up 0.84% on the day at the time of writing.

Kitco Media

Ernest Hoffman

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Gold continues to rise but technical studies suggest gold is overbought

Gold continues to rise, but technical studies suggest gold is overbought

Gold continues its dynamic rally moving to higher ground for the fourth consecutive day, with the last three consecutive days resulting in a new record settlement price. As of 4:00 PM ET, gold futures basis the most active April contract is currently trading up $11.70 and fixed at $2138.20. However, today gold futures are trading well off of $2150.50 its intraday high, the first occasion in the last few days in which gold has not closed near or at its daily high.

The current rally became dynamically stronger last Friday, March 1st when gold futures opened just at its 50-day simple moving average and gained $41 in trading. The $41 gain occurred after a report by the Institute for Supply Management which revealed its manufacturing index dropped to 47.8 in February, “signifying an economic contraction.” This is according to Ryan McIntyre, managing partner at Sprott Asset Management.

Follow-through buying was evident yesterday with gold futures scoring over a $30 gain taking the precious yellow metal to $2126.30.

However, this latest rally is not broad-based but rather fueled by a “jump in speculative betting”, according to Adrian Ash, director of research at BullionVault. Speaking to MarketWatch he said there is “no gold rush among Western investors right now, not in physical bullion and not outside Comex futures and options.”

Ash added that “gold exchange-traded funds continue to “shrink to pre-pandemic size; coin shops are slashing their premiums and buy-back prices to try clearing the flood of customer selling.”

The current rally is fueled largely by overwhelming optimism that the Federal Reserve will begin its pivot from interest rate hikes to its first interest rate cut since March 2022. However, this optimism is not in-line with recent comments of multiple Federal Reserve members including Chairman Powell. Fed officials continue to express the narrative that “they are in no rush to cut rates”.

Investors are hoping to gain more insight when Chairman Powell heads to Capitol Hill for his semi-annual testimony to the House and Senate beginning tomorrow. According to the CME’s FedWatch tool, there is a 97% probability that the Federal Reserve will not begin to cut rates at their March FOMC meeting and a 79.1% probability that the Fed’s benchmark Fed funds rate will remain unchanged at the May meeting.

However, this probability indicator dramatically favors a rate cut by June with only a 27.2% probability that they will not cut rates in June.

That being said, there are technical indicators that suggest that the recent rise in gold prices has put the precious yellow metal in an overbought situation. The chart above is a daily Japanese candlestick chart of gold with a stochastic oscillator. This study indicates that gold is very much overbought well over 80%, with the %K line crossing below the %D line which signals a strong potential for gold prices to decline. According to Investopedia, “ Stochastic oscillator charting generally consists of two lines: one reflecting the actual value of the oscillator for each session, and one reflecting its three-day simple moving average. Because price is thought to follow momentum, the intersection of these two lines is considered to be a signal that a reversal may be in the works, as it indicates a large shift in momentum from day to day.”

The chart above is also a daily Japanese candlestick chart with the RSI (Relative Strength Index) at 76.23. The RSI is a momentum indicator that measures the speed and magnitude of recent price changes used to evaluate if the market is over or undervalued. The RSI has moved above 70 indicating that gold is overbought and also suggests that gold could be primed for a trend reversal or a technical price pullback according to Investopedia.

While both of these technical studies strongly indicate that gold is overbought, the caveat to these momentum indicators is that gold could continue to rise and continue to be overbought. However, the fact that both of these indicators suggest that gold is extremely overbought warrants our attention as a potential indication that gold could pivot from its current bullish demeanor and signal imminent price correction.

Wishing you as always good trading,

Kitco Media

Gary Wagner

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Gold price above 2100 the market is just getting started – Jess Felder

Gold price above $2,100, the market is just getting started – Jess Felder

The gold market is seeing solid follow-through buying activity following last week’s record closing price. The precious metal has pushed above $2,100 an ounce, and according to one market analyst, it has room to run.

In an interview with Kitco News, Jess Felder, founder of the Felder Report, said he has been looking for gold to break to the upside as the price action has generated some very bullish technical patterns.

“Gold is forming consistent bullish flag patterns. The price spikes higher, consolidates for a period and then we see another price spike higher. Gold has been looking to break higher for a while now. From a purely technical standpoint, it looks to me like there's a projected target of a couple hundred dollars higher for gold in the short term, but longer term, we're looking at $2,700, $2800, perhaps over the next year or two. Technically, gold just looks very, very good.”


Along with gold’s technical outlook, Felder said that the precious metal has a robust fundamental outlook as he does not expect the Federal Reserve will be able to bring inflation down to its 2% target.

He added that persistently higher inflation could cause investors to lose faith in the U.S. central bank, weakening the U.S. dollar and making gold an attractive asset. At the same time, Fleder said that a weakening economy will force the Federal Reserve to at least reintroduce quantitative easing as it maintains its restrictive monetary policy.

“If you had both of those things at the same time, that would be the ultimate bull case for gold,” he said. “If it turns out the Fed hasn't done enough to sustainably bring inflation back down, that's going to worry people that way. The whole soft landing narrative is based on the idea that inflation comes down so the Fed can lower rates without a recession. But if inflation doesn't come down and they can't lower rates, that will impact the economy.”

At the same time, Felder noted that credit conditions within global financial markets continue to deteriorate. He added that sooner or later, the Federal Reserve is going to have to pump more liquidity into the market.

As good as gold looks, miners look even better

It’s not just the precious metal that looks good. Felder said that he is extremely bullish on precious metals miners as this sector hasn’t been this beat up since the bear market lows in 2015

However, Felder pointed out that the negative sentiment is not aligned with the sector’s solid fundamentals

“To me, this is a very powerful sentiment signal; it suggests that this is about as bearish as investors can get,” he said. “It’s the ultimate irony: miners are trading as if gold is in a major bear market, but gold is holding near record highs.”

As to what will entice investors back into the mining space, Felder said that he expects a rally in gold to create a lot of new interest. At the same time, he said that a correction in the broader equity market could push some funds into miners.

“There are interesting dynamics in the markets right now. Investors are avoiding commodities, generally, because they're worried that if a recession hits, demand for commodities is going to tank. However, they're obviously not avoiding equities. Personally, I would be more worried about equities because corporate profits in a recession fall a lot faster than demand for commodities.”

As to where he sees value in the sector, Felder said that with higher gold prices, major producers like Barrick, Newmont, and Agnico Eagle will benefit from increased cash flows. He added that these companies also represent less risks for generalist investors.

Newmont, the world’s largest gold producer, has recently attracted particular attention after its share price dropped to a five-year low. The company’s share price has since bounced off those lows, currently trading at $32.91 per share.

“Senior producers are about as dirt cheap as they can get,” he said.


Kitco Media

Neils Christensen

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Gold bears are hibernating this week as the market sees record closing price

Gold bears are hibernating this week as the market sees record closing price

A record weekly close for gold is fueling significant bullish sentiment in the marketplace; however, some analysts have said that this breakout still needs to be tested, and investors should be careful about chasing prices.

Results of the Kitco News Weekly Gold Survey show that both Wall Street analysts and retail investors are cautiously optimistic about gold next week.

Gold prices managed to push above $2,050 an ounce Thursday after The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge showed a benign rise in consumer prices. After a slow start Friday, the precious metal started to attract some followthrough buying momentum following weaker-than-expected manufacturing and sentiment data.

April gold futures last traded at $2,095.20 an ounce, up 2% from last week. The precious metal’s best performance since late November has created a new record closing price.

While the rally has breathed new life into the precious metals market, some analysts have said that the price action remains sensitive as profit-taking and volatility could push prices back to within their well-defined channel.

Adam Button, chief currency strategist at Forexlive.com, said that Friday’s rally shows how much potential gold has; however, he added that he doesn’t see the rally as being backed by strong fundamentals.

“I just don’t see how a miss in ISM manufacturing could drive prices this high. I would be more convinced this rally was sustainable if it came after really disappointing employment numbers,” he said. “I think investors do need to pay attention because this shows how many investors are waiting for the dollar to crack before jumping into the market.”

James Stanley, senior market strategist at Forex.com, said that he is also not chasing the market, even as he anticipates higher prices in the near-term.

“I don’t think the pivot at the Fed is here yet. And while I have been very bullish on gold the past few weeks, even after the 2k test, spot [prices] trading over $2,075 is something I don’t want to chase here. That was the level that caught the high in 2020 and has remained a significant roadblock for bulls in the three and a half years since,” he said. “The NFP report is going to be a big deal for macro next week, but that’s not until Friday, so there could be some testing around $2100, but I’m not optimistic enough on drive beyond that level to chase the move while near that long-term resistance.”

This week, 14 analysts participated in the Kitco News Gold Survey and not one is bearish on gold in the near term. The survey showed 11 analysts, or 79%, were bullish on gold. At the same time, three analysts, or 21%, were neutral on the precious metal.

Meanwhile, Main Street investor sentiment continues to improve steadily. This week, 175 votes were cast in Kitco’s online survey. In a slight improvement from last week, 77 retail investors,representing 44%, looked for gold to rise next week. Another 43, or 25%, predicted it would be lower, while 55 respondents, or 31%, were neutral on the near-term prospects for the precious metal.

Marc Chandler, Managing Director at Bannockburn Global Forex, said $2,088 could represent a major resistance point for gold next week.

“Beyond that is the record high set on that spike in early December to $2135.60. I think we will see a need for the dollar’s resilience to buckle, and that may take greater confidence in a near-term Fed cut. Some Wall Street economists have begun giving up on a cut, and former Treasury Secretary Summers has cautioned that the next move may still be a hike,” he said.

Phillip Strieble, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures, said that while gold’s rally is impressive, he would like to see gold hold higher support to confirm that this isn’t another bull trap.

Some analysts have said that while gold is seeing an impressive rally, it faces significant resistance at $2,100 an ounce.

Sean Lusk, co-director of commercial hedging at Walsh Trading, said that he sees potential for gold to go higher but remains hesitant to chase the market.

“We have been consolidating for a while now, so this could have some teeth to it,” he said.

Lusk added that investors could look at options to get some exposure to gold and take advantage of the market's momentum. He added that a medium-term play would be to buy $2,100 August gold calls and sell $2,275 February gold puts.

“A modest 5% rally takes the market to $2,175,” he said. “Should August 2100 call trade $70 in the money, we could collect $5K to $6K per spread upon exit, in my opinion.”

Kitco Media

Neils Christensen

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Gold market sees new record closing price but the major test is next week

Gold market sees new record closing price, but the major test is next week

With gold prices pushing to within striking distance of $2,100 an ounce, seeing a new record settlement Friday, the market is setting itself up for a major week ahead, one filled with significant macroeconomic risks.

April gold futures settled Friday at $2,095.70 an ounce, a record close for the precious metal and up more than 2% from last week. The rally started Thursday as prices pushed above initial resistance above $2,050 an ounce after the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge showed a benign rise in consumer prices.

The gold market is seeing its best weekly gains since November

Meanwhile, silver managed to end the week with a 1% gain, with prices back above $23 an ounce. Although silver continues to underperform gold, some analysts have said it remains an attractive value play in a bull market.

Despite a slow start, disappointing economic data on Friday created some weakness in the U.S. dollar, giving gold and silver room to move quickly to the upside.

“Thursday's and Friday's gains reaffirm gold's ability to rise above its 50-day moving average, which it failed to do a month ago,” said Alex Kuptsikevich, senior market analyst at FxPro.

While gold has managed to break above resistance at $2,050, Kuptsikevich added that the next major resistance level to watch is $2,088. At the same time, the market can see significant upside if the momentum lasts.

“There is an even longer-term scenario. The pullback from the beginning of the year to mid-February is a classic Fibonacci retracement of 61.8% of the first growth impulse from the October lows. The realization of this scenario will be the advance to $2255,” he said.

However, not all analysts are convinced that gold is headed higher, even as it ends the week with significant momentum. In a note Thursday, Nicky Shiels, head of metals strategy at MKS PAMP, noted that gold’s outside move could be the result of its months-long consolidation. She said that momentum can push gold prices higher, but the fundamental picture remains the same, for now.

“With positioning in gold and silver running neutral & short, respectively, technically compressed price action and overall sentiment in precious metals burnt out, it really was a recipe for unexplained outsized moves. Was the PCE a game-changer? No, and not enough data to declare disinflation is about to end, and the Fed may just never cut,” she said in her note. “Can technical rallies extend? Sure. But this is not a catalyst to rope in fresh investor interest, and physical alone doesn’t chase, so it’ll come down to paper shorts and cues provided by macro. Overall, Gold remains bid-to-higher.”

Market analysts at CPM Group are also not optimistic that the gold market can hold Friday’s gains as it is caught in a well-defined trading pattern.

“Gold prices have sold off most every time they have tested resistance levels, and as prices test strong support levels, investors step back into the market, initiating new longs once more. This has kept gold prices in a wide range, mostly above $2,000,” the analysts said in a note late Friday.

“Gold prices are now testing $2,100, having firmly broken above $2,050 yesterday. The market appears to be looking for reasons to go long gold, and taking profits as technical resistance levels are tested,” the analysts added. “It is unclear if prices will continue to climb in the near term, but they already have made strong gains, suggesting the potential for a short-term pullback on profit taking. A retrenchment in prices could push gold back toward $2,075, which could potentially present a buying opportunity should the upward momentum continue.”

Some analysts have noted that gold could face a significant test next week with the release of February’s nonfarm payrolls report. At the same time, markets will be anxious to hear what Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will say in his two days of testimony before Congress.

Adam Button, chief currency strategist at Forexlive.com, said that he will probably be paying more attention to labor market data next week as that could have more impact on the U.S. dollar.

He said weak labor market data could impact the U.S. dollar more than Powell’s comments.

“We basically know what Powell is going to say: interest rates will be coming down, but not anytime soon,” he said. “He will probably also say that the Federal Reserve will continue to monitor incoming data. Weak job growth could sustain gold’s rally.”

It’s not just U.S. economic data that could impact the U.S. dollar. The European Central Bank will meet to decide its monetary policy next week and a hawkish stance could support the euro in the near term.

Commodity analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman said they expect the ECB to strike a cautious tone next week as Europe’s latest inflation data came in hotter than expected.

Economic data to watch next week:

Tuesday: ISM services PMI

Wednesday: ADP employment data, Bank of Canada monetary policy decision, Powell’s testimony before the House Financial Services Committee, JOLTS job openings

Thursday; European Central Bank monetary policy meeting, weekly jobless claims; Powell’s testimony before Senate Banking Committee

Friday: Nonfarm payrolls report

Kitco Media

Neils Christensen

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Gold futures bullish sentiment result in the largest daily gain since October 2023

Gold futures bullish sentiment result in the largest daily gain since October 2023

Gold futures bullish sentiment result in the largest daily gain since October 2023 teaser image

Exceptional, phenomenal, amazing, surprising, astounding, and almost beyond belief are only a few of the many words that can be used to describe today’s exceedingly strong upside breakout in gold futures. Gold opened today at $2052.82 and by the close of Globex at 5:00 PM ET gold futures are up $41. At the close, the most active April gold futures contract is trading at $2095.70, a 2% daily gain.

Now that gold futures have concluded for the week and the first trading day of March, the only regular break to gold’s 24-hour trading day (excluding holidays) market participants, investors, and traders are all beginning to have a more comprehensive understanding and explanation as to why gold moved 2% in a single day. The difficulty here is that there was no unexpected fundamental report or event that led to such a tremendous price gain in a single day.

There was no single news event, expected data report, or even a black swan event (an unpredictable or unforeseen event, typically one with extreme consequences) that could simply answer this question. What we do know is this large of a move does not occur frequently.

Today’s gains were the largest daily gain since Friday, October 13. On that day gold futures opened at $1921.70 and closed at $1983.80 and gained approximately $62 in a single day.

So what we must assume is there is a high probability that today’s spike was caused by events that occurred recently that are just beginning to get digested and interpreted in a new light or different way. The one big similarity to last week’s trading range is that Friday’s gain contained the vast majority of the weekly gain. On a weekly basis, gold gained $46.30 which is a 2.26% gain on the week, of which 2% of that gain occurred today. Last week gold gained $25.30 which is a 1.25% gain on the week, of which $18.70 or 92.1% of the gain occurred last Friday, February 23.

However, that fact delivers very little insight if any at all as to why gold had the single largest daily gain in the last five months.

The chart above is a five-minute Japanese candlestick chart of April gold futures. The first blue arrow on the left marks the beginning of the trading day with gold opening at $2052.82. Approximately 3 ½ hours later gold would trade to its low of approximately $2047 and begin the first leg of two rallies that would take gold dramatically higher. Gold would trade from $2047 up to $2066 in just over two hours before trading to another low of $2051, which was above the daily low and was a precursor to the dramatic second leg of the rally which took gold from $2051 to its high above $2096 before trading sideways are consolidating and currently at $2091.60 its settlement price for the week.

The next chart we want to look at is a five-minute candlestick chart of the dollar index which traded to a high today of 104.324, a low of 103.859, and settled down 0.24% at 103.904. The dollar traded with some volatility today, compared to what was witnessed in gold futures.

The chart above is a daily candlestick chart of gold which shows the incredibly large and dynamic price spike in one single candlestick which more than anything else clearly illustrates the importance and magnitude of today’s single move. All we can say is that most likely it was a combination of many events in which market sentiment shifted. The first and most obvious one to look at would be a renewed belief that the Federal Reserve will cut rates sooner than expected.

This could stem from the latest inflation report coming in close to the anticipated target. But luckily we have the weekend to aggressively analyze and dissect today’s rally so that on Monday we can bring you a more concise attempted understanding of today’s move.

Kitco Media

Gary Wagner

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

The Fed to intervene in a collapse scenario what it means for the stock market recession calls

The Fed to intervene in a collapse scenario, what it means for the stock market & recession calls – Alex Krüger

Those calling for a recession and a market collapse are wrong because the Federal Reserve wants to intervene before that happens, according to Alex Krüger, Economist and Partner at Asgard Markets.

The 'Fed put' is back, Krüger told Michelle Makori, Lead Anchor and Editor-in-Chief at Kitco News. The term ‘Fed put,’ a play on the option term ‘put,’ is the market belief that the Fed would step in and implement policies to limit the stock market's decline beyond a certain level.

"The 'Fed put' was removed from the market in early 2022 when they made it clear that their focus is now on inflation, sending stocks crashing," Krüger said. "Things changed in December when the Fed stated that the risks are balanced to both the upside and downside, and they are focused on jobs just as much as they are on interest rates."

That means that the Fed will intervene if things start to collapse. This was already seen in 2023 during the failures of regional banks, including Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and First Republic Bank.

In response to the banking crisis, the Fed quickly introduced the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) in March 2023, an emergency lending program that allows banks to take on loans of up to one year to boost liquidity.

During last year's banking crisis, there was one surprising asset winner. For insights, watch the video above. The same asset can again benefit if the Fed intervenes to prop up the economy.

Because of the 'Fed put,' the most likely outcome is a soft landing, Krüger pointed out, advising to ignore the noise and focus on the bigger picture when trading.

"A very large percentage of market participants are focused on how expensive things are, how AI is a bubble, how the yield curve inversion has to lead to a major recession and a major crash. My response is that it's noise. And the bigger picture is that we should be focusing on interest rates going down, inflation going down, and liquidity going up," he said.

For insights on how much more upside there is in the stock market, watch the video above.

However, there are several scenarios that could derail this outlook. "First of all, black swans … armed conflict in the Korean peninsula or China-Taiwan, or conflict escalating between Russia and Ukraine," Krüger said.

Another scenario that could derail the soft landing outlook is an acceleration in inflation. "The outlook should change because the Fed's outlook will change if it happens," he noted.

Take on crypto: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, Worldcoin

In the crypto space, Krüger pays close attention to Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana. To get his top crypto picks for 2024, watch the video above.

The new spot Bitcoin ETFs are attracting new types of investors, pushing prices towards new all-time highs.

BlackRock's spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund IBIT alone saw $1.357 billion in trading volume Tuesday, breaking Monday's record of $1.3 billion, according to Bloomberg Intelligence ETF analyst Eric Balchunas.

Krüger views the introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs as a way towards mainstream adoption that will eventually include central banks holding Bitcoin alongside gold as a reserve asset.

"At the moment, Bitcoin is an extremely volatile asset that doesn't belong in the reserves of a central bank, but eventually, that volatility will disappear," he said. "We will see new market participants in the Bitcoin options market. Eventually, central banks will adopt Bitcoin as a reserve asset."


To get insights on how that would impact Bitcoin prices and which central banks will likely push the needle the most, watch the video above.


The next big driver for crypto investors is a potential approval of a spot Ethereum ETF. On timing and chances of that happening this year, watch the video above.


To get Krüger updated price forecasts for Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, Worldcoin, and his other top crypto picks, watch the video above.

Kitco Media

Anna Golubova

Anna Golubova is the Producer for Kitco News. With more than ten years of experience in media, she has covered a range of topics, focusing on economy and politics. Anna began to exclusively cover economic news in 2013, attending media lockups at the Bank of Canada and Statistics Canada to report on a range of key macro economic events, including interest rate announcements, GDP, unemployment, and retail. She holds a Master of Arts in International Relations from NPSIA, Carleton and a Bachelor's degree in Political Science and History from the University of Ottawa.

Kitco Media

Michelle Makori

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Gold silver slightly down as next US inflation data point awaited

Gold, silver slightly down as next U.S. inflation data point awaited

Gold and silver prices are modestly down near midday Wednesday. A firmer U.S. dollar index today is a negative “outside market” force working against the precious metals market bulls. Also, the near-term technical postures for gold and silver are still leaning bearish, which is inviting some of the chart-based traders to the sell sides. April gold was last down $3.10 at $2,041.00. March silver was last down $0.182 at $22.35.

U.S. stock index futures are weaker near midday. Bitcoin prices have soared this week and are presently trading above $61,000. Barron’s today reported bitcoin’s rise is due to better risk appetite in the marketplace, the big rally in the technology heavy Nasdaq stock index, and notions the Federal Reserve will lower U.S. interest rates later this year.

Today’s revision of fourth-quarter 2023 U.S. gross domestic product readings showed GDP up 3.2%, year-on-year, versus the initial reading of up 3.3%. The 4Q personal consumption expenditures) PCE price index was up 1.8%, year-on-year, versus up 1.7% in the advance report. The core PCE price index was up 2.1% in 4Q, compared to the advance reading of up 2.0%. Today’s GDP data was not a big markets-mover, as the numbers did not stray far from market expectations.

The bigger U.S. data point of the week is likely going to be Thursday morning’s personal income and outlays report for January, which also includes the PCE inflation indexes. The PCE price index in January is seen up 2.6%, year-on-year, while the core PCE price index is seen up 2.9% in the same period. Those forecasts are just slightly higher than the readings seen in the December report. It’s been said the Federal Reserve officials pay extra close attention to the inflation data in the personal income and outlays report.

Recent U.S. inflation numbers have come in a bit warmer than expected. Not hot, but still warm enough to likely have swayed the Federal Reserve into reckoning it will wait until the second half of 2024 to consider lowering interest rates.

The market to watch Thursday morning following the personal income and outlays report will be the U.S. Treasury futures markets. Immediately after the data is released at 8:30 a.m. EST, the Treasury bond and note futures markets’ price action will indicate what the marketplace thinks about the latest U.S. inflation data. Remember that Treasury futures prices move in the opposite direction of the more closely followed yields. U.S. T-Bond and T-Note prices have been trending down the past four weeks. That suggests Treasury traders suspect U.S. inflation data will continue to come in too warm to allow the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates this spring. So watch the U.S. Treasury bond and note futures markets

Wednesday morning. You can bet other market traders will have one eye on the bond markets right after the report. Remember the old market adage: “Bond traders are the smartest guys in the room.”

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher. Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $79.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching around 4.28%.

Technically, April gold futures bears have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the February high of $2,083.20. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $2,000.00. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $2,053.20 and then at $2,061.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $2,033.40 and then at $2,025.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

March silver futures bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the February high of $23.56. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the February low of $21.975. First resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of $22.71 and then at $23.00. Next support is seen at today’s low of $22.245 and then at $22.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

March N.Y. copper closed down 155 points at 381.25 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The copper bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the January high of 394.70 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the February low of 365.50 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 387.15 cents and then at last week’s high of 390.85 cents. First support is seen at 380.00 cents and then at 375.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

Kitco Media

Jim Wyckoff

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Growing alarm over US debt: Why the Fed is ‘Dr Frankenstein’s monster’ that is part of the problem Charles Payne

Growing alarm over U.S. debt: Why the Fed is 'Dr. Frankenstein's monster' that is part of the problem – Charles Payne

(Kitco News) – With the U.S. national debt surging above $34 trillion, many prominent investors and financial leaders are raising alarm over a looming crisis. Even Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has weighed in expressing concern that U.S. debt is unsustainable. However, the U.S. central bank is a major part of the problem, according to Charles Payne, Host of Making Money on FOX Business Network and the author of ‘Unbreakable Investor.’


Powell issued his own candid warning on U.S. debt during CBS’s ’60 Minutes,’ criticizing lawmakers for effectively borrowing from future generations with their unsustainable fiscal policies and stating that it was time for “an adult conversation.”

“In the long run, the U.S. is on an unsustainable fiscal path,” Powell said on Sunday. “And that just means that the debt is growing faster than the economy … We're effectively borrowing from future generations … It’s time for us to get back to putting a priority on fiscal sustainability. And sooner's better than later.”

While weighing in on the U.S. fiscal policy might be controversial for Powell, the Fed is a big part of the problem when it comes to debt, Payne told Michelle Makori, Lead Anchor and Editor-in-Chief at Kitco News.

“It's a nice sound bite,” Payne said. “But the function of the federal reserve itself belies what he was saying. They've always been the biggest buyers of U.S. Treasuries, which facilitate this crazy nonstop spending on both sides of the political aisle. That's why he had free reign to speak about it. It wasn't like he was pointing fingers at anyone in particular.”

The important thing to understand is how the Fed plays a central role in all this, Payne added. “We're here at the precipice of this situation where [Powell] rightfully acknowledges that there's a problem, but to be quite frank, I don't see the Federal Reserve doing anything about it,” he said. “They play a role in all of this. They're not backing away from this role.”

On top of that, the Fed receives more power and responsibility almost every year. “I think the Federal Reserve is already far too powerful an entity, not truly responsible to anyone, not truly answering to anyone. It's part of the problem. He's pointed out a major problem. Unfortunately, he didn't underscore his part of the problem,” Payne explained.

Payne highlighted that the Fed has become the most powerful entity in the world in its ability to move domestic and even global economies. For more on Payne's insights on the Fed's role outlined in his latest book 'Unbreakable Investor,' watch the video above for details.

"The Federal Reserve is responsible for far too much. And who do they answer to? Realistically, who gets to fire Jerome Powell tomorrow? No one. I'm concerned that we've created this all-powerful entity, almost like Dr. Frankenstein's monster, and within that entity, people would be shocked to learn how left-leaning it is right now,” Payne said.

An organization that is supposed to be nonpartisan has become very political, and there are serious consequences that could come from that. “Overwhelmingly, they’re very liberal, left-leaningDemocrats. These are the folks that will take control of the most powerful entity out there," Payne said. “And I do believe it will be more politicized."

Payne also weighed in on whether he foresees a scenario with no U.S. central bank or one with diminished powers. For insights, watch the video above.

The U.S. ‘fumbled’ its reserve currency status: Accelerating de-dollarization and unsustainable debt levels

Quickly rising U.S. debt levels are becoming one of the top concerns among individuals like JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, who says the U.S. economy is heading toward a financial crisis due to escalating national debt.

Speaking at the Bipartisan Policy Center, Dimon cautioned of a looming "hockey stick" surge in debt, adding that if U.S. lawmakers don’t alter the current path of spending, there could be “rebellion” among foreign owners of U.S. government bonds. "It is a cliff, we see the cliff. It's about ten years out, we're going 60 miles an hour [toward it],” Dimon said.

Also, Tudor Investment founder Paul Tudor Jones warned that even though it may look like the U.S. economy is firing on all cylinders, there is a “debt bomb” under the surface. “We’ve got a 6% to 7% budget deficit. We’re fast-pouring consumption like crazy,” Jones told CNBC. “The only question is … when does that manifest itself in markets? It could be this year, it could be next year. Productivity may mask, and it might be three or four years from now. But clearly, we’re on an unsustainable path.”

This concern around debt could have serious consequences when it comes to the dollar as the global reserve currency, according to Payne. "There's no doubt that the dollarization trend is picking up. We have fumbled this gift, this responsibility of being the world's reserve currency. The only problem is there's no one else out there to take advantage of it right now, but that's not always going to be the case," he said.

Payne added that it was important to pay attention to big oil-producing countries, like Saudi Arabia, accepting payments for oil in currencies other than the U.S. dollar.

To get Payne’s timeline for when the U.S. dollar could permanently lose its reserve currency status and what can replace it, watch the video above.

What does it all mean for the stock market in 2024?

Payne also outlined what this macro environment means for the U.S. stock market this year.

For Payne’s precise stock picks and investment insights, watch the video above.


Kitco Media

Anna Golubova

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley