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Gold needs to break above 2010 for prices to have a chance at ATHs

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Gold needs to break above $2,010 for prices to have a chance at ATHs

The gold market has managed to reclaim the $2,000 level as it looks to end its second consecutive week in positive territory. However, analysts have said that gold's momentum remains limited, and prices are unlikely to break current resistance levels as the Federal Reserve maintains its tight monetary policy bias.

Analysts noted that with Israel and Hamas agreeing to a limited cease-fire, weakening the precious metal's safe-haven allure, U.S. monetary policy is expected to be the most significant factor driving gold's near-term price action.

"Our economists only expect the first rate cut to be implemented in the middle of next year, so only then is the price of a troy ounce of gold likely to climb lastingly above $2,000," said Commerzbank commodity analyst Barbara Lambrecht in a note Friday.

However, while gold will likely be stuck below $2,000 an ounce, many analysts are not expecting to see much downside risk as seasonal factors start to kick in.

In a recent note, Nicky Shiels, head of metals strategy at MKS PAMP, said that in the last five years, gold has seen average gains of 2.7% between Thanksgiving and Dec.31.

Gold is above $2,000, but resistance continues to holdOle Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, said that the biggest risk for gold will be rising bond yields that strengthen the U.S. dollar.

"Gold looks well supported and only a sharply higher dollar will change that," he said in a comment to Kitco News. "Whether or not it's ready to make a decisive push higher already is a bit doubtful unless a break/close above 2010 triggers [fear of missing out]."

With renewed focus on U.S. monetary policy, the gold market will be sensitive to U.S. GDP and inflation data. Although the U.S. economy is expected to see extraordinary growth in the third quarter, there are growing fears of slower activity in the fourth quarter. At the same time, slower growth is expected to continue to slow inflation.

Markets will also be paying attention to a slew of central bank speakers on Tuesday, while Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will cap the week as he participates in a fireside chat titled "Navigating Pathways to Economic Mobility" at Spelman College in Atlanta.

In recent comments, Powell has been fairly straightforward that interest rates will remain in restrictive territory as inflation still isn't under control.

However, energy prices and next week's OPEC+ meeting could be a potential wildcard for inflation.

It is expected that the oil cartel will announce new production cuts, but if these underwhelm expectations, then oil prices would continue their current downtrend.

Daniel Ghali, senior commodity strategist at TD Securities, said that counter-intuitively, lower oil prices could provide some near-term support for gold. He explained that lower energy prices will give the Federal Reserve some room to ease its current tightening bias.

However, Ghali said he doesn't see gold prices breaking new ground anytime soon. He noted that Asian and emerging market demand continues to provide support for the precious metal, but added that gold remains stuck as Western investors continue to avoid it.

"We expect Western investors to continue to ignore the gold market until the U.S. falls into a recession in the first half next year, which forces the Federal Reserve to aggressively cut interest rates," he said.

  Gold and silver prices stuck, waiting for a catalyst – Quant Insight's Huw Roberts

Gold is above $2,000, but resistance continues to hold

Looking at gold's technical picture, analysts have said that investors and traders need to keep an eye on initial resistance at $2010.

"Should buyers achieve a close above $2009, the price could extend the bullish run towards $2050, the April high, before bringing $2082, the all-time high, into focus," said Fiona Cincotta, senior market analyst at City Index.

On the downside, analysts have highlighted initial support between $1,945 and $1,930 an ounce.

"If we see gold prices go back below $1,940, then this new uptrend is done and we will have to wait for another buying opportunity," said Phillip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures.

However, Streible said he remains bullish on gold as the market appears to be setting itself up for a Christmas rally.

Economic data for next week:

Monday: U.S. new home sales

Tuesday: U.S. Consumer Confidence

Wednesday: Preliminary U.S Q3 GDP

Thursday: OPEC meeting, U.S. CPE Index, personal income and spending, weekly jobless claims, pending home sales

Friday: ISM manufacturing PMI, Powell fireside chat

By

Neils Christensen

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

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Capture Brand Awareness and Consideration: Strategies for Moments of Discovery

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Capture Brand Awareness and Consideration: Strategies for Moments of Discovery

Capturing brand awareness and consideration during moments of discovery is a crucial aspect of any marketing strategy. It is the first step towards building a strong brand identity and recognition. It helps the brand to stand out among its competitors and gain a significant share of the market.

Brand awareness refers to the extent to which customers are familiar with a brand. It is the foundation of any marketing campaign and is essential for building brand recognition and value. A brand with high awareness is more likely to be considered by customers when making a purchase decision. Therefore, it is crucial to capture brand awareness during moments of discovery, where customers are more receptive to new brands and products.

To capture brand awareness and consideration during moments of discovery, brands need to have a clear strategy in place. This includes identifying their target audience, understanding their needs and preferences, and creating a unique value proposition. By doing so, brands can differentiate themselves from their competitors and create a strong brand identity and equity.

Understanding Brand Awareness and Consideration

Brand awareness and consideration are two key factors that influence the success of a company. These two factors are crucial in attracting customers and driving sales. In this section, we will explore the role of discovery in brand awareness and the consideration phase in the shopping journey.

Key Takeaways

  • Understanding brand awareness and consideration is critical to developing an effective marketing strategy.
  • Digital tools and platforms, engaging content, and building trust with customers are essential for capturing brand awareness and consideration during moments of discovery.
  • Maximizing the shopping experience and monitoring and scaling the strategy are critical components of a successful brand awareness and consideration strategy.

Role of Discovery in Brand Awareness

Discovery is the process of finding new information or uncovering something that was previously unknown. In the context of brand awareness, discovery plays a crucial role in exposing potential customers to new brands and products. The discovery phase is the first step in the shopping journey, where potential customers become aware of new products and brands.

During the discovery phase, customers are looking for inspiration and ideas. They are not necessarily looking to buy anything, but rather to discover new brands, products, and categories. Companies that can engage with shoppers during this phase can gain visibility and create an emotional connection with potential customers.

To engage with shoppers during the discovery phase, companies need to have a strong message and values that resonate with potential customers. They need to communicate their message effectively through public relations and other forms of communication. By creating an emotional connection with potential customers, companies can increase their chances of being recommended and considered in the shopping journey.

Consideration Phase in the Shopping Journey

The consideration phase is the second step in the shopping journey, where potential customers evaluate different brands and products before making a purchase. During this phase, potential customers are looking for information that can help them make an informed decision.

Companies that can provide relevant and useful content during the consideration phase can increase their chances of being considered and ultimately purchased. They need to provide information that is specific to the customer's needs and preferences. Companies that can engage with potential customers during this phase can create a positive customer experience and increase their chances of driving sales.

In conclusion, understanding the role of discovery in brand awareness and the consideration phase in the shopping journey is crucial for companies that want to drive sales and engage with potential customers. By providing relevant and useful content, companies can create an emotional connection with potential customers and increase their chances of being considered and purchased.

Leveraging Digital Tools for Brand Discovery and Consideration

In today's digital age, capturing brand awareness and consideration during moments of discovery is crucial for businesses to establish their brand and acquire new customers. Leveraging digital tools can help brands expand their reach and increase conversions. In this section, we will discuss two effective ways to leverage digital tools for brand discovery and consideration: Effective Use of Google and YouTube Ads and Maximizing Online Shopping Experience with Visuals and Reviews.

Effective Use of Google and YouTube Ads

Google and YouTube Ads are powerful tools that can help businesses reach their target audience at scale. By using broad match keywords and relevant combinations, businesses can increase their visibility and drive traffic to their website. Smart bidding and performance max campaigns can help businesses manage their campaigns and optimize for key metrics such as return on ad spend and conversions.

For example, a car parts retailer, CarParts.com, was able to increase their revenue by 35% and boost their conversion rate by 22% by using responsive search ads with multiple headlines and description options. They also used performance opportunities such as local inventory ads and site visits to drive traffic to their nearby stores.

YouTube Ads can also be a powerful tool for businesses to capture brand awareness and consideration. Shoppable videos and virtual storefronts can help retailers showcase their products and provide a seamless shopping experience for customers. Video in-feed ads can also help businesses reach their audience with engaging content.

Maximizing Online Shopping Experience with Visuals and Reviews

Visuals and reviews are important touchpoints in the customer journey and can help businesses differentiate themselves from their competitors. By using product feeds and image assets, retailers can showcase their products in a visually appealing way and provide customers with the information they need to make a purchase.

For example, packing hacks and packing cubes retailer, Away, used high-quality images and detailed product descriptions to create a strong online presence and increase their revenue. They also leveraged social media to showcase their products and engage with their audience.

Reviews are also an important factor in the customer decision-making process. By listening to customer feedback and responding to their concerns, businesses can build trust and establish a loyal customer base. For example, an auto-parts retailer used customer reviews to improve their product offerings and increase their sales.

In conclusion, leveraging digital tools such as Google and YouTube Ads, visuals, and reviews can help businesses capture brand awareness and consideration during moments of discovery. By optimizing their campaigns and providing a seamless shopping experience, businesses can establish their brand and acquire new customers.


Tim Moseley

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Chinese traders buy 175 tonnes of gold but Western buying remains exhausted – TD Securities

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Chinese traders buy 17.5 tonnes of gold, but Western buying remains exhausted – TD Securities

Western investors continue to avoid gold; however, Asian and emerging market demand continues to dominate and support prices at a critical juncture.

In a report published Wednesday, commodity analysts at TD Securities noted that in the past week, Chinese traders bought around 17.5 tonnes of notional gold.

In an interview with Kitco News, Daniel Ghali, senior commodity strategist at TD Securities, said that while they don't know the exact reason behind the purchases, they did coincide with buying momentum in the yuan as the People's Bank of China sold U.S. dollar and bought the yuan.

"Chinese traders continue to add to their gold holdings, extending a period of massive accumulation of gold, even as the yuan halts its appreciation," Ghali said in Wednesday's note.

Regardless of why Chinese investors bought gold, Ghali said it's another example of how Asian and emerging market central bank demand has transformed the marketplace this year.

"We do think this unexpected demand is one reason why gold prices have outperformed, given where the U.S. dollar and bond yields are," he said.

Although China has been a solid source of demand for the precious metal, Ghali said that the latest consumption remains highly speculative and unlikely to be the start of a long-term trend.

Ghali said that the missing piece for higher gold prices remains Western investment demand. He added that prices could fall back below $2,000 an ounce in the near term as safe-haven buying has been exhausted.

However, long-term TDS remains extremely bullish on gold. Ghali said that the bank sees record gold prices by the first half of next year.

"We expect Western investors to continue to ignore the gold market until the U.S. falls into a recession in the first half next year, which forces the Federal Reserve to aggressively cut interest rates," he said.

  Gold needs to break above $2,010 for prices to have a chance at ATHs

By

Neils Christensen

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

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THE INCENTIVIZED LOAN PROGRAM ILP is a powerful way to spread wealth

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THE INCENTIVIZED LOAN PROGRAM (ILP) is a powerful way to spread wealth. (Updated)

Given the ever-increasing Markethive membership, I’ve updated and republished this article from three years ago for all our newer members. Markethive’s Incentivized Loan Program (ILP), also known as an Initial Loan Procurement, is a valuable tool for distributing wealth. The ILP is essentially a loan that adheres to regulatory standards and complies with the UCC Code. This ensures it can be used in various countries without worrying about fraud or money laundering issues. It's similar to a convertible note, a type of short-term debt financing used for early-stage capital raises. In simple terms, it's like a promissory note or an IOU.

Markethive has developed a revolutionary approach to financing projects through the blockchain, offering an alternative to traditional crowdfunding methods. By leveraging the power of decentralized networks, Markethive's Incentivized Loan Program enables the raising of funds securely and transparently, making it a game-changer for entrepreneurs and innovators. As a pioneer in this space, Markethive is leading the way in decentralized debt crowdfunding, providing a new avenue for businesses to access the capital they need to thrive.

ILP holders have a share in the company's success and receive a portion of the profits in the form of interest, which is 20% of the net revenue paid out monthly, and a final balloon payment at the end of the 20-year note period.

Here is a bullet point breakdown

• The Incentivized Loan Program generates a formally binding and lawful loan arrangement that adheres to the USA UCC code for debt instruments. Since it's a debt instrument, it's exempt from taxation.

• The opportunity is accessible to people globally since lending practices are prevalent in most regions.

• The company can focus on developing tokens with genuine utility and value rather than issuing speculative tokens without practical application.

• Markethive utilizes the debt structure to bring in operational capital, and as a result, ILP holders receive a secure, transferable blockchain token. The total number of ILPs available is capped at 1000, although we are targeted to distribute fewer than that. Each share is equivalent to a single full ILP. 

• Markethive's diverse revenue streams will provide the necessary funds for interest payments, distributed through the ILP utilizing blockchain technology and paid out in Hivecoin (HVC) via the recently integrated comprehensive financial hub called the Markethive Wallet. This cryptocurrency can then be exchanged for other cryptos or fiat currencies through various coin exchanges and, ultimately, through Markethive's crypto exchange platform.

• For as long as the principal remains outstanding, 20% of the net revenue is distributed to all ILP token holders in proportion to their share as interest payments. Following this, a lump sum payment is made after 20 years and can be further extended upon agreement between parties.

• The interest payments will be paid using the ILP Blockchain, which ensures their security, efficiency, and accuracy. The blockchain technology behind it makes tampering impossible.

• Holders of ILP tokens will be able to sell their tokens through Markethive's decentralized, peer-to-peer auction-style exchange, allowing them to dictate the terms of their own exit strategy.

• ILPs can be divided into smaller parts, known as fractions, with a minimum denomination of 1/1000th of an ILP. A specialized internal exchange, the ILP Markethive Exchange, is being developed where members can purchase and sell their ILPs or fractions of their ILPs peer-to-peer. This allows members to monetize their ILPs, turning them into cash cows.

• The ILP token is not based on speculation. It’s based on performance. 

Imminent Growth – Lucrative Outcome

Due to consistent growth indicators from both internal and external sources, ongoing enhancements, and the implementation of integrations that enhance user experience and strengthen our systems' security, we are optimistic about the rapid expansion of our community. Currently, members who upgrade to Entrepreneur One (E1) for $100 monthly are supporting Markethive's efforts to design, build, and implement innovative systems and integrations, and they will be rewarded a thousandfold.

The revenue generated by diverse sources, including the Premium Upgrade (PUP), retail products and services, and the pioneering E1 upgrade, will fund the monthly ILP interest payments. To simplify the calculation and for the sake of this article, let's assume a modest estimate of 5 million members. This allows us to project the following growth…

If 10% of Markethive's 5 million members upgrade to a Loyalty Program at $100 per month, the monthly income would be $5 million. With a 20% net revenue, that's approximately $10 million monthly. When divided by the maximum number of 1000 ILP shares, it translates to a monthly income of $10,000 for each share.  For the holders of 1/10th of an ILP, that represents a cool $1000 per month for a subscription payment of $100 per month. 

As the company grows, the revenue will reflect that growth for a projected duration of 20 years before the loan becomes due, which is regarded as a balloon payment. Currently, one full ILP is worth $10,000, but as the ILP purchases increase or are allocated through the Entrepreneur One Upgrade, the value of the ILP will continue to grow along with the monthly interest payments. 

LinkedIn Statistics 


Source: Kinsta.com

LinkedIn is considered one of the closest, most targeted, and most socially networked competitors to Markethive, even though it falls short in services compared with Markethive. LinkedIn’s most recent figures suggest it has more than 900 million members with over 58 million registered companies. According to Kinsta.com, in September 2023, LinkedIn’s annual revenue was $13.8 billion, reporting that 39% of LinkedIn users had upgraded to their Premium service. LinkedIn’s yearly revenue surpassed $15 billion in Q4 2023, reflecting 1 billion members, according to LinkedIn statistics. 


Source: Kinsta.com

Based on LinkedIn’s figures and annual revenue of $15 billion, 20% is $3 billion, and the monthly figure would equate to $250 million. At Markethive, that 20% would go to the ILP holders. Based on the maximum total of 1000 ILPs, that correlates to a monthly income of $250,000 per ILP. 

LinkedIn’s 4-tier Premium plans offer nothing more than greater and deeper access to the data of other members, visitors, searches, and 3+ levels of deep messaging. Their services and, subsequently, annual revenue pale in comparison to what Markethive offers now, not to mention the retail products, services, and integrations in development and imminent release; you can just imagine a potential revenue of 10X that amount, and that is arguably a very conservation projection.  

Markethive is determined to distribute its profits to the Markethive community instead of exclusive stakeholders and Microsoft, who acquired LinkedIn for $26 billion in 2016. In response to the changing global economic conditions, Markethive is actively working towards implementing a business model that prioritizes the community. This model allows individuals without significant financial resources to pursue entrepreneurship and access wealth-building opportunities typically available only to prominent venture capitalists.

There’s Always Ways To Earn in Markethive

At Markethive, we are dedicated to ensuring that our rank-and-file members have seamless access to ILPs, as we firmly believe in making Markethive a company for all. To further enhance the benefits of being a part of our community, we have the Markethive Token (MHV) paid to members for daily activities via micropayments recorded in the Coin Clip. These features provide our members with long-term wealth and revenue opportunities and create a thriving ecosystem where our coin can be utilized to its full potential.

Creating a “Universal Income” for entrepreneurs. Using our state-of-the-art integrated inbound marketing platform, social network, hybrid AI, business services, e-wallet, coin exchange, mining data center, incubator, and blockchain income platforms for success in the crypto-preneurial and entrepreneurial markets.

View the white paper to clearly understand the Markethive vision and mission and the statistics and milestones achieved. White Paper https://markethive.net/Markethive.Whitepaper.V4.pdf

So, how do you get your hands on your share of an ILP? You can choose from the following two ways…

  1. You can purchase fractions of an ILP with the Markethive Token (MHV), starting with 20,000 MHV for 0.01 ILP, through to one full ILP for one million MHV.   
  2. You can wait for the ILP exchange to be completed and then buy ILPs or shares from other exchange members.
  3. You can purchase an ILP or partial shares from us (Markethive) directly. We sell whole shares and fractions as small as 1/10th for $1000.

Conclusion

In conclusion, Markethive's ascension, community participation, and status as a dynamic social network with increasing daily engagement and interaction on the platform indicate a promising future. As a comprehensive social media platform, Markethive offers indispensable inbound marketing tools for business growth and a thriving cryptocurrency ecosystem, ensuring a steady income for its members. With a successful system and the Hivecoin launch on the horizon, Markethive is set for long-term expansion and revolutionizing how we interact and conduct business online.

Markethive is in the final stages of BETA, offering a unique opportunity for individuals to establish themselves as early adopters. This cutting-edge platform is the future of social market broadcasting, providing a comprehensive system for long-term success, financial independence, and a sense of community. By leveraging the power of Web 3.0 technology, Markethive is revolutionizing how we approach social media, inbound marketing, and eCommerce. Take advantage of the chance to secure your place in this innovative ecosystem designed specifically for entrepreneurs.

 

 

Editor and Chief Markethive: Deb Williams. (Australia) I thrive on progress and champion freedom of speech. I embrace "Change" with a passion, and my purpose in life is to enlighten people to accept and move forward with enthusiasm. Find me at my Markethive Profile Page | My Twitter Account | and my LinkedIn Profile.

 

 

 

Tim Moseley

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Gold prices below 2000 but seasonals remain favorable

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Gold prices below $2,000, but seasonals remain favorable

Although gold remains stuck below $2,000 an ounce, some analysts remain optimistic that all-time highs are an achievable target by year-end or into the new year.

In quiet holiday trading, spot gold prices have stabilized Thursday at an elevated level, last trading at $1,992.20 an ounce, up 0.15% on the day.

Analysts are not expecting to see much of a rally through the rest of the week as most traders are now focused on the U.S. Thanksgiving Holiday and Black Friday shopping. U.S. markets are closed Thursday and will open for half a day Friday.

Heading into the holiday, the gold market could not hold new gains above $2,000 an ounce as markets continued to digest the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s November monetary policy meeting, which were released Tuesday afternoon.

Although the central bank left interest rates unchanged at its latest meeting, the minutes show that the committee is maintaining a hawkish basis as they expect to hold rates in restrictive territory for the foreseeable future.

"The bullion price found strong support earlier in the week, as expectations that the Fed's rate hiking cycle had ended consolidated amongst investors."

"The resulting mood led to a two-and-a-half-month low for the greenback and saw treasury yields drop, in a dynamic that benefited the non-yielding precious metal," said Ricardo Evangelista – senior analyst at ActivTrades, in a note to clients Thursday. "However, the subsequent publication of hawkish Fed minutes cooled this enthusiasm, and the release of strong labour data on Wednesday compounded the sentiment of uncertainty as investors hesitated to call the next Fed monetary policy move. With the 'higher-for-longer' view lingering and receding expectations of a rate cut in the first half of 2024, the upside for gold prices may be limited."

Although gold prices have been capped in recent weeks, there is still optimism that prices will eventually move higher.

"Gold has put in a decent performance so far this week after trading down to $1,965 on Monday. It has crossed above the $2,000 per ounce level a few times," said David Morrison, senior market analyst at Trade Nation. "But, as in late October, gold has failed to hold this level as support and has been knocked lower every time it approaches $2,010. Nevertheless, it’s currently trading just underneath this key area and it feels as if it wouldn’t take much for it to have another attempt at an upside break-out."

With markets waiting for a new catalyst, analysts have said that seasonal factors could play a bigger role in the price action, which would be extremely bullish for gold.

In a recent interview with Kitco News, Adam Button, head of currency strategy at Forexlive.com, said that gold’s year-end seasonal trade is one of the most reliable in the market.

"You buy gold before Thanksgiving and sell it in February," he said.

Nicky Shiels, head of metals strategy at MKS PAMP, said that in the last five years gold has seen average gains of 2.7% between Thanksgiving to Dec.31.

Gold and silver prices stuck, waiting for a catalyst – Quant Insight's Huw Roberts

By

Neils Christensen

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

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Gold silver slide as USDX rallies crude oil sells off

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Gold, silver slide as USDX rallies, crude oil sells off

Gold and silver prices are lower in midday U.S. trading Wednesday, pressured by solid gains in the U.S. dollar index and sharp losses in crude oil. Better risk appetite in the general marketplace this week is also a bearish element for the safe-haven metals. December gold was last down $8.80 at $1,992.90. December silver was last down $0.194 at $23.675.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index solidly higher after hitting an 11-week low Tuesday. Nymex crude oil prices are sharply lower and trading around $74.75 a barrel. Reports today said the OPEC-plus cartel postponed its weekend meeting in Vienna because members are in disagreement on further oil-production cuts. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.428%.

U.S. stock indexes are higher at midday and at multi-week highs amid the better risk appetite in the marketplace. It's a quieter trading week as the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday is on Thursday, and Friday is typically one of the quietest U.S. trading days of the year. Look for U.S. traders to hit the exit doors early today, to get a jump on the holiday.

  Massive money printing coming in 2024, the Fed to 'catastrophically' break something – Preston Pysh

The marketplace quickly digested the minutes from the last FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve, which were released Wednesday afternoon. The FOMC minutes said the committee members noted the risk of higher-than-expected inflation and weaker-than-expected U.S. economic growth. The FOMC minutes said more evidence is needed before the Fed shifts its stance on U.S. interest rates. The marketplace took that to mean the Fed will continue to pause on its rate hikes for a few months as it weighs incoming economic data. Markets showed little reaction Tuesday afternoon as the minutes contained no surprises.

Technically, the gold futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price objective is to produce a close in December futures above solid resistance at the October high of $2,019.70. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the November low of $1,935.60. First resistance is seen at $2,000.00 and then at this week's high of $2,009.80. First support is seen at Tuesday's low of $1,979.90 and then at this week's low of $1,967.20. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

The silver bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing December futures prices above solid technical resistance at $25.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the November low of $21.925. First resistance is seen at $24.00 and then at the November high of $24.22. Next support is seen at this week's low of $23.30 and then at $23.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

Try out my "Markets Front Burner" email report. My next one is due out today and is going to be entitled, "When China sneezes…" Front Burner is my best writing and analysis, I think, because I get to look ahead at the marketplace and do some market price forecasting. And it's free! Sign up to my new, free weekly Markets Front Burner newsletter, at https://www.kitco.com/services/markets-front-burner.html .

By

Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

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A Glimpse into the World of Crypto Exchange Revenue Decentralized Exchanges Emerge Including Markethives Latest Vision It just makes sense

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A Glimpse into the World of Crypto Exchange Revenue. Decentralized Exchanges Emerge, including Markethive's Latest Vision. It just makes sense. 

The popularity of cryptocurrency exchanges has skyrocketed in recent years, with a massive influx of users globally utilizing these platforms to purchase, sell, and exchange digital assets. The rise of cryptocurrencies has brought about a peculiar phenomenon where centralized exchanges hold a dominant position in various aspects, including profitability, usage, stature, and innovation, with examples such as perpetual swaps, a derivative product pioneered in the crypto space. Meanwhile, decentralized exchanges (DEXs) have introduced innovations like automated market makers (AMMs) to the landscape.

In a previous article, we reviewed how crypto trading exchanges made money and, for the first time, surpassed the traditional stock exchanges in 2021. Now, we’ll outline some of the leading centralized crypto exchanges’ revenue and ponder the emergence of decentralized crypto exchanges, which are imperative for security, legitimacy, and autonomy. 

Centralized Crypto Exchanges

Hundreds of centralized exchanges are out there, with many holding their own catering to specific niches. Below is an overview of five leading centralized crypto exchanges, their fortunes, and misfortunes in their efforts to remain successful and serve the crypto community worldwide.  


Source: Binance 

Binance

Binance has emerged as a leading platform for cryptocurrency trading, with a whopping $7.7 trillion in exchange volume in 2021. Founded in 2017 by Changpeng Zhao, a seasoned industry expert who previously held key roles at Blockchain.info and OKCoin, Binance has solidified its position as a dominant force in the digital asset market.

Initially introduced in Hong Kong, it rapidly gained popularity as one of the premier exchanges. However, it encountered a series of strict regulations, with China issuing a ban on crypto exchanges that led it to relocate its servers and headquarters to Malta. Currently, Binance staff are scattered worldwide and work from home. 

Despite facing scrutiny from regulatory authorities in various countries, Binance has managed to maintain its position as the leading cryptocurrency exchange by volume. The company has been investigated in the US and UK, which has led to several banks prohibiting their customers from transferring funds to Binance. Nevertheless, Binance continues to outperform its rival, Coinbase, which has a more extensive user base but lower trading volumes. Binance ranks #1 on CoinMarketCap.

Binance key statistics

  • Binance made $20 billion in revenue in 2021, a 263% YoY increase.
  • Binance has an estimated 28.6 million users as of October 2021.
  • Binance's annual spot trading for 2021 is already seven times larger than its 2020 value.
  • Its peak 24-hour trading volume is $76 billion.


Source: Coinpedia

Coinbase

Since its establishment in 2012, Coinbase has been at the forefront of the cryptocurrency industry, holding the position of the largest exchange in the United States regarding trading volume. Currently ranking at #2 on CoinMarketCap, it is primarily recognized as a platform for buying, selling, and storing Bitcoin. Coinbase also provides various options for exchanging different cryptocurrencies and traditional fiat currencies.

Before Bitcoin's meteoric rise, Coinbase seamlessly integrated its payment processing system with prominent platforms such as Stripe, Braintree, and PayPal while also forming partnerships with major merchants, including Dell, Expedia, and Time Inc. This strategic move positioned Coinbase for success in 2017, a year that would prove to be a turning point for both the company and the cryptocurrency market as a whole. In this year, Coinbase expanded its offerings by adding new coins to its exchange and achieved a remarkable revenue milestone of nearly $1 billion.

Coinbase has faced numerous allegations, such as excessively charging customers for transactions and delays in making currencies accessible. Additionally, it was compelled to disclose information to the IRS about traders in the United States who held significant amounts of cryptocurrency. Although Coinbase went public in 2021, its worth has become closely linked to the price of Bitcoin, resulting in a continuous decrease in value throughout 2022.

Coinbase key statistics

  • Coinbase Global annual revenue in 2022 was $3.194 billion, a 59.25% decline from 2021.
  • Coinbase has 98 million users worldwide, and nine million people exchange monthly.
  • Coinbase lost $2.6 billion in 2022, a massive swing for the company, which reported $3 billion in net profit the previous year.
  • Coinbase global total assets for 2022 were $89.7 billion, a 321.75% increase from 2021.


Source: SignHouse

Kraken

Kraken is among the pioneering cryptocurrency exchanges, with its roots in San Francisco, USA. Founded by Jesse Powell in 2011, the platform aimed to provide a reliable and secure environment for users to trade digital assets. In response to the security breach at Mt. Gox in 2011, Powell saw the need for a robust exchange and launched Kraken publicly in 2013, committed to creating a haven for cryptocurrency enthusiasts.

Kraken ranks #3 on CoinMarketCap and has emerged as the leading crypto exchange in the Eurozone, thanks to its integration with the Bloomberg Terminal and timely involvement in the Mt. Gox saga. Initially, Kraken's growth was fueled by its provision of market data on bitcoin trading, which made it a hit among traders. However, its user base significantly surged when Mt. Gox ceased operations in 2014. As Kraken was chosen to spearhead the search for 650,000 missing Bitcoins and distribute Mt. Gox's assets to creditors, many Mt. Gox creditors opened trading accounts with Kraken, thereby providing the exchange with early liquidity.

Kraken's initial edge as the sole gateway for Euro-based crypto trading has resulted in its position as the leading exchange for Euro trading volume. However, its growth has been outpaced by other exchanges, such as Binance and FTX, which have expanded their offerings and user base faster. Despite being launched later, in 2017 and 2019, respectively, Binance and FTX have now surpassed Kraken in size. This can be attributed to their faster introduction of new features and currencies and their provision of high-risk, high-reward trading options that Kraken does not offer.

Kraken Key Statistics

  • Kraken is valued at $10.8 billion, a valuation/revenue of 7.4X
  • Kraken’s 2022 revenue reached a new milestone of $47.11 million.
  • In 2022, Kraken exceeded 9 million users worldwide.
  • Kraken's monthly average trading volume in 2022 is $33.1 billion.


Source: Coinmarketcap

HTX (formerly Huobi Global)

HTX, a prominent cryptocurrency trading platform, ranks #15 on CoinMarketCap regarding trading volume. Founded in 2013 by Leon Li and Du Jun, the exchange has recently caught the attention of Justin Sun, Tron's founder, who has taken on an advisory role and is considered a de facto owner. To commemorate its 10th anniversary, Huobi Global rebranded to HTX in September 2023, with the letters "H" and "T" representing Huobi and TRON, respectively, and "X" symbolizing the exchange.

HTX Exchange holds significant influence in Asian markets and was initially established in China. However, due to heightened regulatory measures, HTX decided to move its operations to the Republic of Seychelles. In addition to its physical offices in South Korea, Japan, Hong Kong, and Singapore, HTX also established a presence in the United States in 2018. Unfortunately, this office had to be shut down due to regulatory issues. Following the crackdown in China, HTX experienced a decrease of approximately 30% in its revenue, which further fueled its drive for global expansion.

HTX did not benefit from the recent bear market. In 2020, the platform generated approximately $250 million in quarterly revenue, which increased to $1.25 billion in mid-2021. However, by the end of 2022, HTX's quarterly revenue had decreased by 98% compared to 2021. In 2023, HTX focused on burning its HT token to reduce its circulation supply and potentially raise its value. Additionally, HTX adjusted its burning methods to align with other prominent cryptocurrency exchanges.

HTX Key Statistics

  • HTX's estimated annual revenue is currently $110.1M.
  • HTX is handling over $4 billion in daily trading volume.
  • Total assets are approximately $2.35 billion.


Source: Coingeek

OKX (formerly OKEx)

Since its inception in 2013, OKX has undergone various iterations. Mingxing "Star" Xu established it as the OKCoin.cn Bitcoin exchange in China. Subsequently, an international variant called OKCoin.com was introduced, which continues to operate as a fiat-supporting exchange in select markets. In 2017, OKEx, an all-digital-asset platform, was launched concurrently with the International Digital Asset Exchange (IDAX). Over time, OKX has expanded its presence to encompass the European Union, the United States, and Latin America. The company's headquarters are located in Seychelles.

In 2022, OKEx rebranded and changed its name to 'OKX' to adapt to decentralized services. According to OKX, this change in name and image will guide the company toward a decentralized future where digital assets merge with other innovative experiences. The letter "X" symbolizes the uncharted and yet-to-be-discovered opportunities in the financial and virtual domains. OKX holds the rank #5 on CoinMarketCap

The company has made the strategic decision to enter the emerging world of cryptocurrency and delve into DeFi offerings, NFTs, gaming, and metaverses. This expansion signifies OKX's desire to explore the possibilities within the crypto realm fully and transform it into a comprehensive destination for all types of cryptocurrency enthusiasts.

OKX Key Statistics

  • OKX’s year-to-date is $50 – $75 million. 
  • OKX's year-to-date volume is $960.9 billion.
  • OKX has over 20 million users worldwide in over 100 countries.
  • Total assets: Nearly $11.8 billion

Decentralized Crypto Exchanges 

Over the past few years, decentralized exchanges (DEXs) have become strong contenders to the conventional centralized exchange (CEX) model. Blockchain technologies like cryptocurrency are based on a philosophy of decentralization. As a result, it is only natural that decentralized exchanges have emerged to challenge the established centralized exchanges. These recent developments have fostered a distinctively unique ecosystem for crypto assets, attracting a growing community of traders and investors.

What makes DEXs unique is that they're peer-to-peer marketplaces that let cryptocurrency traders make direct transactions — without an intermediary managing their funds. Instead, DEXs use smart contracts that self-execute their agreements, and innovative solutions have been devised to solve liquidity-related issues.


Source: IQ.wiki 

The 1inch Network

The 1inch network was introduced in May 2019, while its token, 1INCH, was launched in December 2020 by its founders, Sergej Kunz, and Anton Bukov. Before co-founding 1inch, Kunz was employed full-time as a cybersecurity specialist at Porsche and worked as a senior developer at a price aggregator. Bukov, on the other hand, has experience in software development and has recently been involved in decentralized finance.

The 1inch network uses multiple protocols: Aggregation, Liquidity, and Limit Order Protocol. The synergy of these protocols ensures fast and protected operations in the DeFi space. It unifies numerous decentralized exchanges (DEXs) into a user-friendly platform. This lets users compare and optimize their crypto trades and swaps without navigating multiple exchanges separately. The network's initial protocol, a decentralized exchange aggregator solution, scours various liquidity sources to provide users with the best possible rates, exceeding those offered by any individual exchange.

The 1inch Aggregation Protocol leverages identify the most optimal paths across a vast network of over 300 liquidity sources spread across ten different blockchain platforms, including Ethereum, BNB Chain, Polygon, Avalanche, Optimistic Ethereum, Arbitrum, Fantom, Gnosis Chain, Klaytn, and Aurora. 

Even though the cryptocurrency market was experiencing a downturn and chaos due to the collapse of centralized entities, UST, and a well-known crypto hedge fund, users are still actively trading on the 1inch Network. Despite the market decline, the increase in trading volume on 1inch indicates that users strongly desire to adjust their investment portfolios to withstand the market conditions. 1inch has proven its value to users during a challenging economic environment by consistently growing its trading volumes.

1inch Key Statistics 

  • Total earnings for 2022-’23: $12.5 million
  • Total volume 2022-’23: $175.1 million. 
  • 1inch has approximately 4.9 million users, accommodating 54,300 users per day.
  • 1inch’s Market cap is $377.2 million and ranked 110th out of all 8,819 active cryptocurrencies listed on CoinMarketCap.


Source: Ailtra

dYdX

dYdX has established itself as a leading decentralized exchange platform globally, supporting over 35 cryptocurrencies. Founded by Antonio Juliano, a California-based entrepreneur and former Coinbase engineer, in July 2017, the platform provides various services such as trading, lending, and borrowing and initially operated on the Ethereum Layer-1 network. dYdX also introduced its native currency, DYDX, in August 2017.  

The company is widely acclaimed for its cross-margin perpetual trading, making it a comprehensive hub for decentralized financial transactions. As a DEX offering derivatives, dYdX was an early mover, rolling out its first perpetual swap (perp-swap) offering in 2020. Three years later, most DEX trading activity is still on spot-trading venues. The leading exception is dYdX.

The high trading volume on dYdX can be attributed to two significant developments in 2021. Firstly, dYdX migrated from the Ethereum mainnet to utilize layer-2 rollups powered by Starkware, resulting in faster and more affordable transactions. Additionally, introducing the dYdX protocol token boosted the platform. It is a governance token that allows the dYdX community to own and govern the protocol truly, aligning incentives between traders, liquidity providers, and broader stakeholders. These enhancements, known as dYdX v3, have contributed to a substantial increase in trading activity, with the number of listed pairs growing from 3 to over 30.

In June 2022, dYdX v3 was replaced with a new version, the dYdX v4. The dYdX Chain (currently on the public Testnet from Sept. 2023) marks a significant milestone in the company's development as it shifts towards a decentralized, community-driven model. Leveraging the Cosmos SDK, dYdX creates a transparent and trustless central order book exchange governed by validators and stakers. The ratio of fee distribution will be determined by on-chain governance, ensuring that holders of the dYdX token will receive a share of the fee revenues. 

In a move towards true decentralization, dYdX Trading Inc. and other central parties will not have access to trading fees on dYdX V4, as promised by the core team in their January 2022 announcement. It’s interesting to note that considering the recent market downturn, the exchange has seen volume and revenue while focusing on development, which can help the platform grow when the activity returns in the crypto market. dYdX currently sits at #1 of the DEX listings on CoinMarketCap.

dYdX Key Statistics 

  • dYdX’s semi-annual report states that dYdX’s trading volume has surpassed $230 billion, with a daily volume of $1 billion. The v3 platform recently exceeded $1 trillion in cumulative trading volume.
  • dYdX has generated $71.1 million in revenue in 2023 to date. 
  • dYdX’s user base is over 60K, with 1.8K active daily users. 

Successful Crypto Exchanges Have A Community-First Ethos

The backbone of a thriving cryptocurrency exchange lies in its dedicated community. Beyond the utility of its token and the services provided by the exchange, the involvement and support of its community are crucial in fostering the widespread adoption of cryptocurrency. Crypto communities have become instrumental in promoting digital assets and driving mainstream adoption worldwide.

Some projects and exchanges in the industry have taken a community-first stance. This shift has led to the rise of community-driven initiatives, where open communication and shared decision-making are the cornerstones of project development. By placing the reins in the hands of the community, developers can harness the collective power of the crowd, fostering a spirit of collaboration and shared ownership. This emphasis on community building has, in turn, given rise to the creation of social networks explicitly tailored to the needs of the crypto community.

Thomas Prendergast, the founder and CEO of Markethive, firmly believes that community-driven approaches will shape the future of businesses. Markethive, a pioneering social market broadcasting platform built on blockchain technology, is set to launch its cryptocurrency, Hivecoin (HVC), on the crypto market. Moreover, the company offers a unique opportunity to early adopters through its Founders Token, representing the ILP and allowing them to be a part of the emerging Markethive ecosystem and share in its value and revenue.

The Markethive system fosters community engagement and growth by recognizing and rewarding contributors who share a common purpose. By leveraging the collective enthusiasm of like-minded individuals, we can create a self-sustaining ecosystem that benefits its members and extends its impact to the broader communities they are a part of. This approach will have a transformative impact on our professional and social lives and unlock unforeseen opportunities. 

So, the next logical step for Markethive, with all its ducks in a row, is to embark on a project that will complete its ecosystem: a decentralized crypto exchange. 


Image: Markethive.com

Markethive Crypto Exchange: It just makes sense. 

Thomas has a clear vision for Markethive's next venture: a cutting-edge crypto exchange that leverages the platform's unique strengths, including innovative inbound marketing strategies, blogcasting capabilities, dynamic social engagement, and community-driven support. This new endeavor is a natural progression for Markethive, allowing it to expand its reach and provide users with a seamless trading experience that integrates the platform's proven features.

The decentralized crypto exchange will be a separate offshore company collaborating with Markethive that can offer a strategic partnership that includes integrated traffic and a built-in community, gamification, promotional support for new coin listings, press releases, and custom articles to create a dynamic trading platform. The exchange will also provide automated memberships, airdrops, and promo codes to encourage sign-ups, all of which will be supported by a vast and engaged community that can help promote and establish new coins on the exchange, potentially attracting millions of interested users to Markethive.

Markethive's new exchange will significantly benefit all E1s and community members with ILPs as that membership represents revenue, which increases Markethive's revenue. So even if you’re not in an ownership position with Markethive’s new exchange, the exchange is a revenue engine for Markethive and will drive the membership in Markethive into the stratosphere and thereby increase the revenue so it is to everyone’s benefit. It will increase the value of your Hivecoin and produce revenue to fund the ILPs. This fulcrum will send Markethive into another realm, becoming a giant in the crypto exchange industry, and will solidify Markethive's position as a leading ecosystem. 

The emergence of a multi-polar world is evident, with the growing influence of the BRICs and the potential for others to offer similar solutions. This shift presents an opportunity for Markethive to establish itself as a neutral and apolitical platform capable of facilitating cross-border transactions without the constraints of sanctions or political allegiances. By operating offshore, its crypto exchange can enable the seamless exchange of payments from all countries, promoting financial inclusion and accessibility for the benefit of people worldwide.

Markethive offers a refuge from the harmful strategies of authoritarianism, which persist in threatening the stability of nations worldwide. As an alternative economic system, we are committed to promoting individual freedom and autonomy, in contrast to the oppressive and centralized control advocated by fascist and communist ideologies. Our goal is to empower individuals and communities rather than submit to the dictates of a single, all-powerful authority.

Markethive is set to revolutionize the cryptocurrency exchange landscape by inviting its community members to participate in this groundbreaking project. By engaging its community in this innovative endeavor, Markethive aims to offer an unparalleled opportunity for involvement at an unprecedented low cost, promising remarkable rewards. Stay tuned for more updates on this exciting development.

Join us on Sundays at 10 am MST as we reach new heights in revenue-generating integrations. Be a part of the excitement and witness the cutting-edge technology and innovative concepts of Markethive firsthand. Get your questions answered and participate in the conversation as we work together to create the ultimate ecosystem. Don't miss out – join us in the meeting room. The link to this can be found in the Markethive Calendar.
We look forward to seeing you there!

This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

 

 

Editor and Chief Markethive: Deb Williams. (Australia) I thrive on progress and champion freedom of speech. I embrace "Change" with a passion, and my purpose in life is to enlighten people to accept and move forward with enthusiasm. Find me at my Markethive Profile Page | My Twitter Account | and my LinkedIn Profile.

 

 

 

 

Tim Moseley

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Fed hikes may have concluded as central banks purchase gold at a record level

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Fed hikes may have concluded, as central banks purchase gold at a record level

Gold had tremendously strong gains today of just over $20 per ounce in both physical gold as well as futures. As of 4:00 PM EST gold futures basis the December contract is currently up $20.80 or + 1.05%, and fixed at $2001. On its first day as the most active Comex contract, February gold (GC G24) gained $20.60 or + 1.03% and is currently fixed at $2021.10. Physical or spot gold is up $20.80 trading at $1998.40.

Today’s solid gains are the result of multiple factors. First, the release of economic reports indicates that the economy in the United States has been contracting as a result of recent rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. Secondly, the Federal Reserve released its minutes from the last FOMC meeting in which the Fed continued to maintain its current interest rate level.

Third, a report by the World Gold Council revealed intensified buying by central banks around the world resulting in a new record for purchases in the first nine months of the year. Lastly, except for the Federal Reserve, global central banks are beginning to cut interest rates.

It was a combination of all the events cited above that propelled gold futures above $2000 per ounce.

The World Gold Council has updated its list of gold reserves by countries revealing that many central banks aggressively added to their gold reserves. Collectively these purchases by global central banks are at a record pace for the first three quarters of 2023 which totals 800 tons, with China Poland, and Singapore being the primary buyers. This pace is well above the total purchases for the same period in 2022.

Will the Fed follow the pack and cut rates sooner than anticipated?

Today the Federal Reserve released its minutes for the most recent FOMC meeting. The minutes supported current expectations that the Federal Reserve’s pause not only will continue, but more importantly signals that the Fed might have concluded its aggressive interest rate hikes that began in March 2022. These hikes have effectively raised the Fed funds rate from between 0 and ¼% to between 5 ¼% and 5 ½%. Expectations by the CME’s FedWatch tool indicate the probability of a rate hike pause is 94.8% down from the probability of 99.8% a week ago.

Adding to these bullish developments that took gold futures above $2000 per ounce is the fact that multiple central banks have begun interest rate cuts.

In fact, for the first time since January 2021, the number of central banks that are cutting interest rates is greater than the number of central banks implementing rate hikes.

While the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy has not mentioned any imminent rate cuts the fact that many other central banks are cutting rates is positive. Although the ECB has not begun to cut its interest rate level, expectations are high that they have ended their cycle of rate hikes and could begin rate cuts as early as the second quarter of 2024.

Gary S. Wagner

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Gary Wagner

Contributing to kitco.com

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

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Gold silver weaker amid better risk appetite in marketplace

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Gold, silver weaker amid better risk appetite in marketplace

Gold and silver prices are moderately lower in midday U.S. trading Monday. The safe-haven metals bulls have lost momentum amid investor risk appetite that continues to improve heading into the holidays. There are solid clues the U.S. Federal Reserve is done raising interest rates amid falling inflation. And six weeks into the Israel-Hamas war there has been no major military escalation to involve other countries. December gold was last down $8.20 at $1,976.50. December silver was last down $0.262 at $23.59.

Asian and European markets were mixed in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are higher and at or near multi-week highs today. It will likely be a quieter trading week as the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday is on Thursday and Friday is typically one of the quietest U.S. trading days of the year.

  Uranium price rally explained: How this asset went from being 'hated' to 'liked' and what's next – Rick Rule

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index solidly lower and hitting an 11-week low. Nymex crude oil prices are solidly higher and trading around $78.00 a barrel. Reports said OPEC is considering more oil-production cuts. The cartel will meet this coming weekend in Vienna. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.47%.

Technically, December gold futures bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $2,000.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,900.00. First resistance is seen at today's high of $1,987.80 and then at last week's high of $1,996.40. First support is seen at today's low of $1,967.20 and then at $1,959.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

December silver futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $25.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the November low of $21.925. First resistance is seen at today's high of $23.87 and then at $24.00. Next support is seen at today's low of $23.30 and then at $23.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

December N.Y. copper closed up 630 points at 380.15 cents today. Prices closed near the session high today and hit a two-month high. The copper bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the September high of 390.85 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the November low of 358.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 385.15 cents and then at 390.85 cents. First support is seen at today's low of 372.55 cents and then at 370.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

Try out my "Markets Front Burner" email report. My next one is due out today and is going to be entitled, "When China sneezes…" Front Burner is my best writing and analysis, I think, because I get to look ahead at the marketplace and do some market price forecasting. And it's free! Sign up to my new, free weekly Markets Front Burner newsletter, at https://www.kitco.com/services/markets-front-burner.html .

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Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

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Tim Moseley

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Retail investors bullish on gold but Wall Street analysts shift into neutral

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Retail investors bullish on gold, but Wall Street analysts shift into neutral

Gold inched steadily higher this week, with prices seeing bumps following economic data releases, but after the strong and sudden moves of the past month or so, the precious metals’ price action was more orderly and less dramatic.

The latest Kitco News Weekly Gold Survey sees retail investors maintaining an overwhelmingly bullish bias going into next week, while the exact same proportion of market analysts have switched to a neutral assessment of the yellow metal’s near-term prospects.

Adrian Day, President of Adrian Day Asset Management, expects gold prices to be little changed during the coming week. “After the recent run, gold is vulnerable to bad news,” he said. “The medium-term fundamentals are very powerful: at some point, the Fed and other central banks will ease tightening before inflation has been conquered and that will be the firing gun for gold. But that’s not yet.”

Daniel Pavilonis, Senior Commodities Broker at RJO Futures, sees a period of prolonged consolidation for gold now that the geopolitical risk bid has subsided.

“We're right smack at the upper band of this trading range that we've been in for several weeks,” said Pavilonis. “Most likely we're not going to see any more rate hikes. We could possibly see some rate cuts in May of next year, but I doubt that's going to happen. I think we're really just going to stay where we're at for a while.”

Pavilonis said that while gold prices continue to react to economic indicators, they aren’t providing the precious metal with a clear direction. “I think that the market is just trading off of a mixed range of inflation data,” he said. “Housing starts, they’re still building houses, there's still demand. Employment reports still look relatively strong. The CPI numbers, the big drop was healthcare, supposedly. I would say next week we're still going to be range bound. I don't see anything that's going to break this thing out to the upside. I would imagine it's going to stay where we've been, trading within this 40, 50, 60-dollar range.”

“Gold is just going to have trouble moving higher if inflation data continues to weaken and we don't lower interest rates,” he said. “I don't know what the driver is going to be if geopolitics isn't there.”

This week, 12 Wall Street analysts participated in the Kitco News Gold Survey. Like last week, three experts, or 25%, expected to see higher gold prices next week, but this week only one expert, representing 8%, predicted a drop in price. The overwhelming majority, or 67%, were neutral on gold for the coming week.

Meanwhile, 595 votes were cast in Kitco’s online polls, and market participants were even more optimistic than they were in last week’s survey. 394 retail investors, or 66%, looked for gold to rise next week. Another 125, or 21%, expected it would be lower, while 76 respondents, or 13%, were neutral on the near-term prospects for the precious metal.

Next week will be a short one for trading and economic data releases, as Thursday’s U.S. Thanksgiving holiday means most of the action will be compressed into the first three days. Highlights include the release of the latest FOMC minutes and October Existing Home Sales on Tuesday, followed by October Durable Goods, University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment for November, and weekly jobless claims on Wednesday.

Everett Millman, Chief Market Analyst at Gainesville Coins, said he believes that the attention of gold investors is moving from the geopolitical sphere to macroeconomics.

“I think that we're seeing a shift in the focus of the gold market away from the war premium that we saw, that certainly drove gold higher in recent weeks,” he said. “I think that's becoming less of a central concern for the gold market, and now the attention is shifting more toward the macroeconomic picture and particularly, what Fed policy is going to be.”

Millman said the consensus now is that the Fed is most likely done hiking rates, and the gold market is really going to be focused on how soon the rate cuts will come. “Lower interest rates are basically the biggest bullish driver out there for gold, outside of a deep recession,” he said. “I think the economic data have been a bit mixed. I see so many takes about how strong the economy actually is, and yes, there's some data showing that. But then there's just as many examples or indicators you can look at on the other side.”

“I think that spells a period of sideways movement or consolidation for gold until we get some clearer pictures on economic conditions.”

Millman also said that under this Federal Reserve Chair, gold traders can’t afford to wait for interest rate cuts to get into their positions, unlike during Feds past.

“This is very different from the Greenspan era, where he basically was trying to cloak what the Fed was going to do so no one could front-run it,” he said. “Now the Fed does directly telegraph these things, and Powell has repeatedly acknowledged that these policy actions act with a lag, and traditionally that lag could be as long as 18 months. So I think it actually makes some sense that markets are going to go off of the signal rather than the action, because we do know that these changes in interest rates, or things like switching from QE to QT, that these types of policy decisions take 12 to 18 months to fully work their way into the economy and actually affect markets.”

“Obviously, if there is that long a lag, then market participants have to go off of the signal and work ahead, because if you're waiting to react to the actual consequence, like that lagged result, then you're going to be so far behind the eight ball,” Millman said. “They know that this 500-basis-point change in interest rates occurred in a very short span of time, but we're still not the full year and a half out, we're getting close. I think that definitely factors into the calculus here.”

Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, said he doesn’t see any big moves for gold in the near term. “Having been so ‘lucky’ to hit it spot-on last week, I’m now looking for additional consolidation next week, so the call is NEUTRAL.”

Colin Cieszynski, Chief Market Strategist at SIA Wealth Management, is also neutral on gold for the coming week. “My reasoning is that between the usual late month drop-off in economic news and next week’s US Thanksgiving holiday, markets in general are likely to be quieter for the next ten days.”

Darin Newsom, Senior Market Analyst at Barchart.com, is bullish on gold’s prospects next week. “Dec gold’s short-term uptrend firmed this past week, with the contract hitting a high of $1,996.40 early Friday,” he said. “If the contract closes lower Friday, based on the Benjamin Franklin Fish Analogy (Like guests and fish, markets start to stink after three days of moving against the trend), Dec gold could move lower Monday and Tuesday as well.”

“Using Elliott Wave Theory, this would be considered Wave 2 of the 5-wave short-term uptrend pattern,” Newsom said. “Ultimately, the contract would be expected to take out the Wave 1 high.”

Marc Chandler, Managing Director at Bannockburn Global Forex, has a neutral bias for the coming week. “Gold bottomed near $1931 in the spot market on Monday and reached almost $1993.50 today, ahead of the weekend,” he said. “The main drivers appear to be the drop in US rates and the dollar. It is not inflation but the decline in inflation (US and UK reported in recent days) that presses rates lower and knocks a leg from under the dollar.”

“Lighter economic calendars next week and the market is pricing in 100 bp of Fed cuts next year,” Chandler added. “So, I look for some consolidation throughout the capital market and this could see the yellow metal consolidated. I see initial support in the $1970-75 area.”

And Kitco Senior Analyst Jim Wyckoff expects gold prices to make gains next week. “Higher, as charts have turned friendlier, and so has U.S. monetary policy after this week’s tamer inflation reports,” Wyckoff said.

Spot gold is currently flat on the day, but up 2.17% since Monday as market participants prepare for the weekend. The precious metal last traded at $1,980.43 per ounce at the time of writing.

By

Ernest Hoffman

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

The Artist that came out of the Winter