Gold’s week in the red but is silver flashing ‘buy signal’?

Gold's week in the red, but is silver flashing 'buy signal'?

Gold saw a volatile $80 move this week, hitting the lowest levels since April 2020.

The latest macro data — hot inflation and better-than-expected retail sales — are giving the Federal Reserve leeway to continue aggressively raising rates. This is pushing the U.S. dollar and Treasuries up and gold down.

Here's a look at Kitco's top three stories of the week:

3. Gold price hits 2020 pandemic lows as Fed rate hike expectations weigh heavily on precious metal

2. Silver's 'buy signal' and why it is a good idea to hold commodities in recession, Goehring & Rozencwajg weighs in

1. Cathie Wood says Fed is making a mistake as calls for 100bps hike grow, Elon Musk confirms warning
 

By Anna Golubova

For Kitco News

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

Tim Moseley

It’s Time to Stand Up For Crypto Freedom

It’s Time to Stand Up For Crypto Freedom

by Teeka Tiwari, editor, Palm Beach Daily

 

God Bless Ameriica

 

In the 1970s, the U.S. Postal Service (USPS) could see the writing on the wall…

Experts at the time predicted by the year 2000… 80% of all first-class mail would be delivered electronically.

The U.S. Government Accountability Office estimated that increased use of electronic mail would reduce postal employment by two-thirds by 2000.

The outlook for the postal service was bleak.

So in 1979, the USPS tried to ban all private electronic mail.

That’s because email technology has made the USPS all but obsolete.

Since 1980, the amount of first-class mail delivered by the USPS has plunged by 43%. And the number of postal employees is down 35% after peaking in 1999… just before the internet and email use exploded in the early 2000s.

This wasn’t the first time the USPS tried to ban emerging technology.

In the 1890s, the postal service declared it illegal for anyone to send letters through private pneumatic tubes under or along city streets.

Pneumatic tubes were the “physical” analog to today’s “digital” internet network.

Over the centuries, governments have always tried to ban technology they couldn’t control.

For instance, Congress tried to outlaw VCRs and MP3 players because of pressure from special interest groups.

These groups said the technology was “dangerous” for the public to own.

But when you scratch the surface, you simply see government overreach. They wanted to crack down on technology that gave individuals more freedom.

With VCRs and MP3 players, individuals can watch or listen to whatever they want in the privacy of their own homes.

But that type of freedom is anathema to Big Government censors.

Instead, they said we need to ban VCRs because they spread “pornography” and MP3 players to prevent “music piracy.”

Of course, bad people can use any technology for bad things.

But does that mean the government should deprive you and I of promising technology simply because bad people may use it?

That’s exactly what’s happening in the cryptocurrency space…

 

Criminalizing Privacy

The technology being referred to is called Tornado Cash. It’s a decentralized application (dApp) known as a currency mixer.

Without getting into the weeds, currency mixers allow users to deposit their crypto into a liquidity pool using a single address.

The pool “mixes” all the funds together so no one can tell where they come from. Users can then anonymously withdraw their funds from the pool, making them hard to trace.

Last month, the U.S. Treasury Department barred Americans from using Tornado Cash as a matter of national security.

The Feds say criminals have used Tornado Cash to launder more than $7 billion in digital currencies since it launched in 2019.

Days after the sanctions, Dutch authorities arrested a software developer in Amsterdam who allegedly worked on the open-source software that powers Tornado Cash.

This is the same as arresting the people who developed the VCR simply because people used it to watch something illegal.

But things have even gone even further than that…

Now, the Feds say anyone even interacting with Tornado Cash violates U.S. sanctions.

This is like arresting anyone using Apple’s iOS or Android software because others use smartphone software to violate U.S. sanctions.

It’s insane.

Tornado Cash is a piece of open-sourced code. It has no CEO or board of directors.

This demonstrates the fundamental lack of understanding the Feds have of technology.

It’s the Postal Service banning pneumatic tubes and email all over again.

I know this sounds scary to advocates of digital currency like myself. But Tornado Cash will keep working no matter what.

Because it is open-source and self-executing software that nobody owns, operates, or controls… that means it will continue to operate no matter what.

People will just copy the code and create new versions. Soon, you’ll have millions of versions of these mixers.

The problem with the Fed is that they’re not drawing the distinction between the technology and the users.

If someone is maliciously using technology, you don’t ban the technology. You go after the individual.

You can’t hold an entire global population hostage to the actions of a few people.

Of course, $7 billion is a lot of money. But it’s a drop in the ocean compared to the amount of money laundering that goes on in cash.

According to statistics from Zippia, criminals launder $300 billion in cash annually through the U.S. banking system…

Will we lock up anyone who deposits cash in the banking system?

The point is this: When you shine the light of logic on what the federal government is doing, you just see overreach and control.

 

We Don’t Have to Stand for It

Friends, I don’t want anyone to spin what I’m saying. So let me be clear…

I’m not defending money laundering. What I am defending is your right to privacy. And your right to access technology.

I’m fighting against a small group of people in a room who want to determine what technology you and I can use.

If they had their way, we wouldn’t have had email. We wouldn’t have VCRs. We wouldn’t have the internet as we know it.

These are all technologies a small group didn’t want us to have because they were “too dangerous.”

It’s up to us to stand up and say, “No, this is our freedom. You don’t get to tell us what to do.”

This isn’t George Orwell’s novel 1984… even though it feels like that.

So we must take a stand here… Because privacy is a fundamental right.

If I want to spend my money privately, there’s nothing wrong with that. And I don’t have to justify that.

It shouldn’t put me in a position where the federal government calls me a criminal just because I want to buy something anonymously.

To hold a global population hostage for the actions of a few criminals… well, we might as well be living in cells.

Big Brother can open the doors when we go to work. And when we come home, they’ll lock them again to keep us safe… and make sure we’re not committing any crimes.

That’s the direction we’re headed in. And I, for one, don’t want to live in a world like that.

So we need to raise our voices and let the government know when it’s trying to impinge upon our liberties.

And this is one of those times.

Friends, this is not a political thing.

Whether you fall on the right or the left side of the political spectrum… you should have the right to spend your money however you please if it’s legal.

Sure, there’s a small population of criminals out there. But why do we have to live in a world built around controlling these fringe lunatics?

Why do we have to pay that price?

That’s just the government trying to make its job easier.

We pay our taxes for law enforcement. The government needs to find the lunatics… Not hold us all responsible for the activity of a few people.

It bears repeating: This isn’t a political thing. Whether you’re on the right, the left… in the middle, or on the moon… your privacy matters. And we all deserve it.

Let the Game Come to You!

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Along with the major long-term trend of society towards decentralization and smaller-scale organizations, there are new opportunities developing to help 'Preparers' in the cryptocurrency sector. Businesses are beginning to issue their own Crypto Coins that can be traded on Cryptocoin Exchanges.

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Tim Moseley

Gold prices holding support above 1675 as UofM inflation expectations fall to one-year low

Gold prices holding support above $1,675 as UofM inflation expectations fall to one-year low

The gold market is holding critical support at around $1,675 an ounce as consumer sentiment continues to improve and inflation expectations remain anchored.

Friday, the University of Michigan said a preliminary estimate of its consumer sentiment survey edged up to 59.5 from August's reading of 58.2. The data was relatively in line with expectations.

The gold market, seeing some modest relief in initial reaction to the latest sentiment data. December gold futures pushed into neutral territory, trading near session highs at $1,678.10 an ounce.

Although sentiment is relatively stable, the report noted there is still a high level of uncertainty among consumers.

"After the marked improvement in sentiment in August, consumers showed signs of uncertainty over the trajectory of the economy," said Joanne Hsu, director of consumer surveys at the UofM.

A positive for the gold market, the survey highlighted falling inflation expectations. The report said that consumers see inflation rising 4.6% by next year, down from the previous projection of 4.8%.

The report said that this is the lowest inflation forecast in a year.

Five-year inflation expectations dropped to 2.9%, down from August's reading of 3.1%.

"However, it is unclear if these improvements will persist, as consumers continued to exhibit substantial uncertainty over the future trajectory of prices," said Hsu.

Economists have noted that if inflation expectations remain anchored, the Federal Reserve could slow the pace of its aggressive monetary policy stance. However, many economists have noted that it will take more than just one or two sentiment surveys to slow the current trend.

"The dip there will offer some comfort to the Fed as it looks to combat rising prices. That emphasizes the credibiliity of the Fed (along with falling gas prices) and gives them some breathing room," said Adam Button, chief currency strategist at Forexlive.com

Markets all but expect the Federal Reserve to raise the Fed Funds rate by 75 basis points next week. The CME FedWatch Tool puts the chance of a full 1% move at only 16%.

However, markets still see a much higher terminal rate near 5%, which some analysts said could keep a lid on gold prices.

By Neils Christensen

For Kitco News

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

Tim Moseley

Facebook Instagram and WhatsApp: A Proven Breeding Ground for Cryptocurrency Scams

Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp: A Proven Breeding Ground for Cryptocurrency Scams

Cryptocurrency, or crypto, is a digital currency transferred directly between users without a central banking system. It was invented in 2008 as an open source project and is not governed by any bank or government authority, distinguishing it from traditional currencies such as dollars, pounds, and euros.

The first cryptocurrency to be created was bitcoin, which was released in 2009 and has since become the best-known example of cryptos. Bitcoin and altcoins are innovative technologies, but they have also been associated with some undesirable activity, including illicit activities like cybercrime and tax evasion, as well as scams and investment frauds. At the moment of writing, there are 20,942 cryptocurrencies with a market capitalization of $1.06T, according to coinmarketcap.

The world of cryptocurrency is rapidly expanding, but this doesn't mean everyone starting a cryptocurrency project is good or honest with investors' money. Scammers have found new ways to trick people into giving them money without repercussions. Unfortunately, victims of cryptocurrency scams have few options for restitution as perpetrators evade authorities and hide their identities behind fake online accounts.

Cryptocurrency has become an investment vehicle for many people. Naturally, some people take advantage of this new technology to scam innocent people out of their money. Most scammers use social media platforms to lure in victims, with Meta being the chief platform used to perpetrate these evil acts. They pretend to be investors or traders and spread false rumors about specific cryptocurrencies. Those who fall for these tactics end up giving out sensitive financial information to complete scams.

One particularly dangerous scam involves a hacker posing as a bank and requesting personal information from customers. This information is then used to create fake IDs that scammers can use to buy cryptocurrencies with stolen money. After that, the scammers sell the digital coins and get away with stolen funds. These scammers often run away with millions of dollars worth of cryptocurrency. Many people lose money due to cryptocurrency scams and are left in serious debts that may take several years to pay off.

However, in most cases, it's difficult for investors to recognize a scam when it occurs. Because most fraudulent projects mimic successful ICOs with similar whitepapers and business plans. The creators often don't even use their names when planning their scams. They usually use fake social media accounts and web forums to communicate with potential victims. These fraudulent projects fail within a year due to shoddy programming and design choices.

An FTC Report released in June showed that since 2021, about 50% of people who have lost money to crypto scams claim to have originated from social media platforms. Meta's Instagram contributed 32% of reported scams, while Facebook and WhatsApp were cited in 26% and 9% of cases, respectively.

U.S. senators have asked Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg to detail his company's policies to address rising crypto fraud cases on Facebook and Instagram. The Washington Post reported this on September 9. Lawmakers are calling for this after a recent Federal Trade Commission (FTC) report showed a significant increase in crypto scams on Meta's social media platform.

According to the publication by the Washington Post, Senator Robert Menendez said:

"Based on recent reports of scams on other media platforms and apps, we are concerned that Meta provides a breeding ground for cryptocurrency fraud that causes significant harm to consumers."

Lawmakers have instructed Meta CEO to provide a detailed report on how the company is crushing cryptocurrency scams and what it is doing to help scam victims. Mark Zuckerberg is directed to respond to the request by October 24, 2022.

For each of Meta's social media platforms, questions asked include how the company detects and removes crypto scammers, educates and warns users about crypto scams, and supports victims of fraudulent crypto schemes. The senators also questioned how Meta verifies that crypto ads are not scams and what regulatory clearances are required to advertise on its platform. Additionally, they asked how Meta works with law enforcement to track down scammers.

The U.S. authorities have warned that scammers are increasingly making use of social media to defraud investors. In August, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) warned investors against scams that exploit fear of missing out (FOMO) on social media.

According to another FTC Report, more than 95,000 users lost about $770 million to crypto scams on social media. Over 70% of reported scams are classified as investment, romance, or online shopping scams.


Image source: Federal Trade Commission 

A 2021 BBC study found that around 10,500 victims lost more than $18 million to scam giveaways in the first three months of 2021. Most gift-giving scams are carried out by impersonating an influential figure like Elon Musk.

One victim reportedly lost over $550,000 in February 2021 after sending 10 BTC to the Elon Musk giveaway scam.

While several government agencies are busy making plans to safeguard citizens from crypto scams, you have to ensure you make due findings about an investment before injecting your funds into it. Without doing adequate research on the subject matter in question, you may have yourself to blame for it. 

Also, considering that governments have not been effective in combating these crimes, it's clear you have to be more watchful of what you invest your money into. As they say, "you get what you pay for" with cryptocurrencies and ICOs in general, so you should go out there and conduct thorough research on the best possible projects on the market today that can provide you with a real return on your investments.

 

ecosystem for entrepreneurs

 

About: Prince Chinwendu. (Nigeria) Rapid and sustainable human growth is my passion, and getting a life-changing opportunity into the hands of people is my calling. Empowering entrepreneurs provides me with enormous gratification. Find me at my Markethive Profile Page | My Twitter Account | and my LinkedIn Profile.

 

 

 

 

 

Tim Moseley

Gold price pounded to 2-plus-year low by economic worries bearish charts

Gold price pounded to 2-plus-year low by economic worries, bearish charts

Gold prices are sharply down and hit a nearly 2.5-year low in midday U.S. trading Thursday. Silver prices are also solidly lower. The precious metals are being hit by global economic worries that threaten to dent commercial and consumer demand for raw commodities, including the metals. October gold was last down $36.00 at $1,662.20 and December silver was down $0.324 at $19.245.

The marketplace was a bit calmer overnight and early this morning, but it appears recent hawkish monetary policy comments from central bank officials and noted market analysts have combined with hot inflation readings to quickly sap what little risk appetite had been seen earlier today. And remember, the stock and financial markets are at the time of year (September and October) where the going can get very tough. Gold and silver bulls remain frustrated that the risk aversion in the marketplace is not translating into more safe-haven demand for the two metals.

Traders are focusing on next week’s FOMC meeting, which is expected to see the Fed raise the key U.S. Fed funds rate by 0.75% in its effort to tamp down problematic price inflation. Precious metals traders are reckoning the tighter monetary policies of most of the major central banks of the world will further slow global economic growth that would in turn reduce consumer and commercial demand for metals.

Inflation triggered worst market sell-off since 2020, analyst predicts even more pain – John Feneck

Global stock markets were mostly slightly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are lower at midday.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices solidly lower and trading around $85.50 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is near steady in early U.S. trading. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching around 3.44%.

Technically, October gold futures prices hit a nearly 2.5-year low today. The gold futures bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and gained more power today. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $1,700.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,600.00. First resistance is seen at $1,675.00 and then at $1,686.30. First support is seen at $1,650.00 and then at $1,635.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5.

December silver futures bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $21.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $18.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $19.625 and then at $20.00. Next support is seen at $19.00 and then at this week’s low of $18.775. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

December N.Y. copper closed down 380 points at 348.20 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The copper bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the August high of 378.35 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the July low of 315.55 cents. First resistance is seen at 355.00 cents and then at this week’s high of 369.25 cents. First support is seen at the September low of 336.10 cents and then at 330.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

By Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

Tim Moseley

Gold gains silver surges as USDX slumps

Gold gains, silver surges as USDX slumps

Gold is moderately higher and silver sharply up in midday U.S. trading Monday. The precious metals are supported by a depreciating U.S. dollar on the foreign exchange market. The U.S. dollar index is sharply lower today and hit a two-week low after last week posting a 20-year high. A dip in U.S. Treasury yields to start the trading week is also a positive for the precious metals markets. October gold was last up $14.00 at $1,733.00 and December silver was up $1.088 at $19.865.

 

U.S. stock indexes higher so far today. Stock and financial markets are almost half-way through the month of September with no major marketplace anxiety. The major U.S. stock indexes have seen short-term price downtrends stall out. History shows September and October can be rocky months for the stock and financial markets.

 

Traders and investors are awaiting the latest U.S. inflation report on Tuesday. The August consumer price index is seen coming in up 8.0%, year-on-year, compared to the July report showing an 8.5% rise. There are some signs in the economy that inflation in the U.S. is cooling off a bit.

 

Weak inflation will be key to a sustainable gold rally above $1,750

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The other key outside market today sees Nymex crude oil prices higher and trading around $87.75 a barrel. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 3.298%.

 

Technically,ctober gold futures bears still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. However, a four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart is now in jeopardy. There is also the potential for a big and bullish double-bottom reversal pattern forming on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $1,769.30. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the July low of $1,686.30. First resistance is seen at $1,740.00 and then at $1,750.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $1,712.70 and then at $1,700.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

 

December silver futures prices hit a three-week high today. The silver bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, the bulls have momentum on their side to suggest a market bottom is in place. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $21.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $18.50. First resistance is seen at $20.00 and then at $20.50. Next support is seen at $19.50 and then at $19.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

 

December N.Y. copper closed up 235 points at 359.10 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session high today on short covering. The copper bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the August high of 378.35 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the July low of 315.55 cents. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of 362.85 cents and then at 365.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 353.20 cents and then at 350.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

 

By Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

Tim Moseley

To Wink or perhaps not to Wink

The majority of internet dating sites present the capability to send some flirty, noncommittal emails towards males you will find appealing. The most typical and suggestive of those could be the “wink.”

Whenever you decide to “wink” at a man, that guy are going to be informed how a woman picked him away and revealed fascination with him, assuming the guy opens up the “wink,” he’ll see you happened to be the one who sent it.

Understandably, sending a wink is actually popular activity among ladies utilizing online dating sites internet sites. But they are winks actually effective? Or will they be worse than a waste of time? Can sending a wink in fact ruin your chances with men?

Would males like winks?

Overall, guys like winks. They could not like a wink just as much as they prefer a genuine information from a lady, but a wink is better than receiving nothing from a female.

As a guy, navigating an on-line dating internet site actually much less perplexing or significantly less fraught with danger than finding your way through a proper globe singles planet (like a bar). Even with checking out a female’s online dating profile, there is genuine method to determine if she is going to be interested.

Guys can review a woman’s profile, feel just like they linked in a countless amount of important ways, deliver the lady an amazing information detailing these associations (without coming on too strong) nonetheless are not able to get a response from the lady. Because thereisn’ option to understand whether a female will discover a person attractive or otherwise not, each information the guy sends away is actually a gamble.

 

“By giving a wink, you attract a

guy to help make the very first strong action.”

And females on internet dating web pages get this to matter a whole lot worse because, typically, ladies never distribute most first emails on these systems. Nearly all women are way too active answering the flooding of messages they have received to expend a lot of time looking for brand-new men to talk to, and women have actually at least as numerous problems as men regarding marshaling with each other the nerve to actually send out an entire message to some body they look for attractive.

Winks can resolve a lot of these issues at the same time. A wink enables a woman to easily and quickly tell a guy she is enthusiastic about him without the need to fork out a lot of time and attention wanting to craft with each other a detailed information. When a guy obtains a wink from a woman, the guy finds out, beyond all worries, that she’s interested in him in which he can send this lady a note with full confidence.

Perform guys prefer an email?

Yes. Completely. Of course. A guy would a lot rather have you send him an entire message than a minimalist wink. But a man in addition would prefer to maybe you have deliver him a wink than nothing at all. As well as for a lot of women, “a wink or very little” correctly describes how they approach online dating.

Actually, males will in truth prefer a wink over a complete information. An internet wink sends alike indication as holding eye contact and all additional small signs you send out out to men within the real world letting them understand you anticipate their particular method.

By delivering a wink, you encourage a person to really make the basic daring move, and while it may appear to be an enormous over-generalization, a great amount of gents and ladies prefer this vibrant to the woman bringing the lead.

When you come across a nice-looking guy on line, go on and wink at him.

naughtyover40

Weak inflation will be key to a sustainable gold rally above 1750

Weak inflation will be key to a sustainable gold rally above $1,750

Some optimism is creeping back into the gold market as prices end the week in neutral territory, bouncing off support at $1,700 an ounce.

However, analysts are warning investors that economic data next week needs to be significantly weaker than expected if that optimism blossoms in a new breakout on the upside.

The main focus for gold investors next week will be two inflation data points: the U.S. Consumer Price Index on Tuesday and the preliminary inflation expectations from the University of Michigan. Also on tap next week is August U.S. retail sales, which will be an essential gauge to determine how consumers are holding up as the Federal Reserve aggressively raises interest rates.

"Significantly weaker economic data next week will continue to pressure the U.S. dollar, which is positive for gold," said Sean Lusk, co-director of commercial hedging with Walsh Trading.

Ed Moya, senior U.S. market analyst at OANDA, said that weak inflation could give gold a boost next week as it could help investors and markets start to define how high the Federal Reserve will take interest rates.

"If inflation drops, then there is a chance we might not see interest rates go much above 4.00%," he said. "If that happens, then maybe the U.S. dollar has peaked, providing some relief for gold."

However, Moya also said that a slight miss in the data might not be enough to shift fairly solid expectations for the Federal Reserve's next monetary policy decision later this month. Markets see a 90% chance that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 75 basis points.

 

Analysts have said that if those expectations don't come down, gold's new-found optimism could vanish fairly quickly.

"If the Fed raises interest rates by only 50 basis points, this could give gold some momentum," said Christopher Vecchio, senior market analyst at DailyFX.com.

Lusk said that gold has the potential to push to $1,760 an ounce next week; however, he added that "bull markets need to be fed."

"Gold rallies are being sold and that won't change until we have a better understanding of where interest rates are going," he said.

Bullish sentiment points to a limited short squeeze for gold prices, not a new breakout

Inflation expectations

According to consensus estimates, economists see headline CPI falling 0.1% in August as gasoline and energy prices dropped last month. At the same time, core inflation, which excludes energy and food prices, is expected to rise 0.2%.

"If we're right and core CPI increases by a more muted 0.2% m/m, then a late switch to a 50bp hike would still be possible," said Paul Ashworth, chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics, said in a note Friday.

However, not everyone is convinced that disappointing inflation data will move the needle on interest rate hikes.

Daniel Ghali, senior commodity strategist at TD Securities, said that this past week at the Cato Institute's Annual Monetary Policy Conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell highlighted the Federal Reserve's dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment.

"Tightness in the labor market is probably going to keep interest rates elevated for a longer period of time," he said. "Wage growth is at a level we haven't seen since the 1980 and this could lead to a deanchoring of inflation expectations and that is what the Fed fears."
 

Ghali said that although gold prices could go up next week, he expects its current downtrend to remain in place.

"A weak CPI data could create a short squeeze, but we don't see that as sustainable," he said.

He added that while the precious metal may have priced in the Fed's aggressive rate hike, it hasn't priced in the duration of higher interest rates.

"While gold prices may now have accurately captured the expected level of interest rates, they are not reflecting the implications of a sustained period of restrictive policy. In this context, money managers continue to sell their length, while ETF holdings of gold remain in a sustained downtrend," he said.

Next week's data

Tuesday: U.S. CPI

Wednesday: U.S. PPI

Thursday: Retail Sales, Empire State Survey, Philadelphia Federal Reserve Survey, unemployment claims

Friday: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment

By Neils Christensen

For Kitco News

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

Tim Moseley

Gold holding fast against US dollar bond yields

Gold holding fast against U.S. dollar, bond yields

It may be a little premature to be talking about a breakout in gold; however, according to several market analysts, the precious metal is ending the week on a solid note.

Although it's ending Friday in relatively neutral territory, analysts see a small victory in what the market didn't do: break down to new lows. Let's start with the U.S. dollar, which rose to a 20-year high against a basket of global currencies.

The greenback saw major breakouts against the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan; at the same time, the pound fell to a 35-year low against the U.S. dollar and the euro continues to trade below parity with the greenback, falling to a fresh 20-year low.

Currencies around the world are falling to the juggernaut that has become the U.S. dollar, all global currencies except gold. The precious metal has managed to hold fast support at $1,700 an ounce.

Gold also as managed to withstand rising bond yields. U.S. 10-year yields pushed to 3.5% this week, its highest level in two months. Heading into the weekend, markets see a 90% chance the U.S. central bank will raise interest rates by 75 basis points.

Market expectations solidified after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank will maintain its aggressive monetary policy stance “until the job is done."

Gold prices fell to session lows following Powell's hawkish comments, but ultimately support held.

Some analysts have said that gold has been able to withstand the rising bond yields and the U.S. dollar's momentum as investors are once again starting to see it as an important safe-haven asset as well as an inflation hedge.

In dismal headlines this week, Michael Gayed, portfolio manager and Publisher of the Lead-Lag Report, told Kitco News that the U.S. could be facing a sovereign debt crisis as Treasury yields continue to rise.

It's not just in the U.S. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde raised the specter of recession after the ECB raised interest rates by a historic 75 basis points.

Perth Mint outpaces U.S. Mint in gold sales last Month

During the press conference, she said that a recession wasn't the ECB's base case scenario, but as part of its bearish scenario, they see the eurozone economy contracting by 0.9% in 2023.

Although some investors are starting to see value in gold, there is still a long way to go to undo the damage done this summer. Bears are still in control of the market as they liquidate their bullish gold bets.

There is still a long road before gold shines bright again, but at least it is holding fast for now.

Have a great weekend

By Neils Christensen

For Kitco News

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

Tim Moseley

Gold backs down as Powell reiterates hawkish Federal Reserve

Gold backs down as Powell reiterates hawkish Federal Reserve

Gold prices are lower in midday U.S. trading Thursday, pressured by comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell that again leaned hawkish on U.S. monetary policy. Powell’s comments boosted the U.S. dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields, both of which had been weaker ahead of his speech. The yellow metal had seen higher prices overnight, but lost those gains to trade near steady when upbeat U.S. jobless claims data were released, and then sold off when Powell made his remarks. October gold was last down $10.80 at $1,707.40 and December silver was up $0.065 at $18.325.

Powell’s speech today was the last scheduled ahead of the FOMC meeting on Sept. 20-21, at which time the Fed is expected to raise the Fed Funds rate by 75 basis points. The Fed’s beige book, out Wednesday afternoon, pointed out weaker U.S. economic growth. Meantime, the European Central Bank met today and raised its main interest rate by 75 basis points, as expected.

U.S. stock indexes are higher at midday, and recouped early losses that occurred shortly after Powell’s hawkish monetary policy comments in a discussion with the Cato Institute. Global stock markets were mostly firmer overnight, following the strong gains in the U.S. stock market on Wednesday.

Brace for a possible U.S. debt crisis if inflation stays elevated, democracy itself is at risk – Michael Gayed

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices higher on a corrective rebound and trading around $83.50 a barrel after hitting an eight-month low overnight. The U.S. dollar index is firmer after hitting a 20-year high Wednesday. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 3.292%.

Technically, October gold futures bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $1,750.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the July low of $1,686.30. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $1,729.30 and then at $1,740.00. First support is seen at $1,700.00 and then at $1,686.30. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.

December silver futures bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $19.50. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $17.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $18.665 and then at $19.00. Next support is seen at $18.00 and then at this week’s low of $17.74. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.

December N.Y. copper closed up 800 points at 351.10 cents today. Prices closed near the session high today. The copper bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the August high of 378.35 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the July low of 315.55 cents. First resistance is seen at 355.00 cents and then at 360.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 344.20 cents and then at this week’s low of 336.10 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

By Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

Tim Moseley

The Artist that came out of the Winter