Gold price plunges $30, but analysts focus on Fed pause after May rate hike
Gold tumbled $30 on the day and dropped below the critical $2,000 an ounce level, but analysts said there is enough buying interest to boost prices back up.
Significant volatility in the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields markets took a toll on gold Friday, with June Comex gold futures last trading at $1,989.10, down 1.49% on the day.
The Fed's blackout period also begins this Saturday, meaning Federal Reserve officials won't speak publicly between then and the May 3 FOMC meeting. Markets are currently pricing in an 88% chance of a 25-basis-point hike, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
"It is expected the Fed will raise rates a quarter point next month. And there is a great deal of uncertainty with gold above or below $2,000. I remain bullish at these levels. We will get to a point where the Fed has to pause and make that pivot. And maybe resort to cuts later this year," RJO Futures senior market strategist Frank Cholly told Kitco News. "That will support gold, which will trade at all-time highs between now and the end of the year."
Next week, markets will zero in on fresh macro data, including the U.S. Q1 GDP and PCE price index numbers.
"The upcoming U.S. economic data, especially the GDP data and the price deflator for consumer expenditures, being the Fed's preferred inflation measure, could trigger some price movement," said Commerzbank analyst Carsten Fritsch.
On Friday, markets already digested stronger-than-expected U.S. manufacturing and service sector data, which weighed on gold. The S&P Global Flash U.S. manufacturing PMI advanced to 50.4 in April from March's reading of 49.2. This marked the first move into expansion territory since September.
"Markets were looking for a decline. Also, people thought that the U.S. dollar would be dropping and positioned short. And with economic data moving higher, we are likely seeing some short-covering," TD Securities' global head of commodity strategy Bart Melek told Kitco News. "The Fed is more likely than not to keep that hawkish stance alive. For May, it is on track to do another 25bps hike, and there is a risk of one increase more after that."
Price levels
A decent support level for gold is at around $1,962, but prices can drop below that, Melek noted, adding that it will depend on the economic data and what the yields are doing. “Technically, we see significant support at just above $1,960/oz. However, we see the yellow metal trend at $2,100/oz in late H2-2023,” he said.
Cholly pointed to $1,975-80 as likely to hold next week. He added that "markets tend to overreach in both directions. The $1,975 level is going to be relatively good support. I don't see it getting below $1,965." On the upside, the first hurdle will be $2,025 and then $2,050-60.
After the Fed May rate hike
The May hike looks increasingly likely to be the last interest rate increase, according to Capital Economics deputy chief U.S. economist Andrew Hunter.
"We are increasingly confident that the May rate hike will prove to be the last of this cycle … [And] our expectation that rates will be cut again late this year. That's based on our long-standing view that the economy is headed for recession, eventually dragging inflation down more quickly than the Fed is allowing for."
Gold's long-term bullish outlook is still very much intact. And as soon as markets settle on when the Fed pauses, gold will rally.
"Right now, there is a risk that the Fed overdoes it. When the economy slows, it will be fast. For gold, it is important that a pivot is happening, and there is a significant risk that U.S. central bank won't strictly adhere to 2% inflation," said Melek.
And that means that the Fed will likely ignore elevated inflation and keep adding accommodation, which will sustain gold's bullish trend. "This would imply lower real rates than previous cycles," Melek pointed out. "Central banks and consumers are buying gold as a hedge to preserve their purchasing power."
Investors are also once again realizing that there is more than one reason to own gold, added Cholly.
"The safe haven trade is going to be a factor. And it is not just a hedge against the U.S. dollar and rates. But geopolitical tensions are rising again, especially between U.S. and China," he said. "People are starting to feel like there is enough uncertainty. And we are about to enter a recession. Gold prices will remain strong."
Next week's data
Tuesday: CB consumer confidence, U.S. new home sales
Wednesday: U.S. durable goods orders
Thursday: U.S. GDP Q1, jobless claims, U.S. pending home sales,
Gold is just stepping back to build a running start
After a month of massive volatility, markets are now comfortable with the idea that the Federal Reserve is not done raising interest rates. Not only is a 25-basis point hike for May firmly priced in, but markets have now pushed back the timing of any potential rate cut to the end of the year.
At the height of last month's banking crisis, markets were pricing in a potential rate cut as early as June, so it's no wonder why gold prices are ending below $2,000 an ounce this week. While gold could see further lows in the near term, analysts note that the market is still on track to hit all-time highs this year.
It's not surprising that some investors are taking some profits in gold. Fear of the global economy breaking is being replaced by renewed fears of inflation. While U.S. consumer prices are on a downward trend, inflation is being acutely felt in the United Kingdom. The nation's Consumer Price Index showed annual inflation holding relatively steady at 10.1% last month. This was the seventh consecutive month that inflation has been above 10%.
There are unique reasons why inflation is exceptionally high in Britain. Still, the data indicates that inflation is a global problem that will likely become entrenched in the broader global economy. The British inflation data showed that food prices rose 19.2% in the last 12 months.
Despite specific economic issues, this number does not bode well for the world. The last time I checked, everyone needs to eat.
It's hard to argue that the inflation threat has gone away when agricultural commodity prices are going higher. Sugar prices are at their highest level in 11 years; meanwhile, feeder cattle future prices are at an eight-year high. Consumers better prepare for more expensive barbecues this summer.
Even those who don't eat beef are stuck. This week analysts at Fitch Solutions published a report saying that rice production in 2023 is expected to see its worst annual production in 20 years. According to Fitch, The world could see a rice deficit of 8.7 million tonnes.
These headlines will keep the Federal Reserve from loosening its monetary policies anytime soon, which, as we know, is a negative for gold.
However, while gold could see some near-term selling pressure, many analysts note that the precious metal remains well supported. Last month's banking crisis shows that there is only so much the Federal Reserve can do before the economy breaks.
Many analysts have noted that gold remains an attractive, safe haven and inflation hedge.
"The monetary disorder that we have seen is far from over, and right now, we are just waiting to see how it will spread," said James Robertson, an analyst at Grant's Interest Rate Observer, in an interview with Kitco News. "This will continue to support gold prices."
Looking past global monetary policies, there are other reasons to be bullish on gold, including the fact that it remains an essential monetary metal. The worldwide de-dollarization trend is picking up significant momentum. In a recent report, Stephen Jen, CEO and co-CIO of Eurizon SLJ Capital, said that the U.S. dollar's share as a global reserve currency dropped to 47% last year, down from 55% in 2021. In 2020, 73% of reserves were in U.S. dollars.
Inflation may moderate, but pension funds aren't taking any changes as they increase their exposure to gold and commodities – Ortec Finance
“The dollar suffered a stunning collapse in 2022 in its market share as a reserve currency, presumably due to its muscular use of sanctions," Jen wrote in the report.
Central banks have been flocking to gold in this environment, and analysts don't expect this trend to end anytime soon.
Finally, while we talk a lot about gold in this newsletter, we can't ignore what is happening in other precious metals. Silver is outperforming gold as prices hold above $25 an ounce and platinum is the best-performing metal in the complex.
Both silver and platinum are benefiting from growing imbalances in their supply and demand fundamentals.
This week, the Silver Institute said that the silver market hit a record deficit in 2022 and it expects that trend to continue into 2023. Metals Focus, the firm behind the research, noted that the deficits in 2021 and 2022 have more than offset the cumulative surpluses of the previous 11 years.
According to many analysts, this deficit should continue to support higher prices.
The hawkish Fed narrative continues to underscore the need for further rate hikes
The recent volatility that led to diminished bullish market sentiment for gold has diminished as gold continues to effectively find support at $2000 per ounce and above. Today gold traded to a low of $2002.20, effectively above the current critical support level of $2000. This morning in New York traders witnessed a quick and powerful price surge taking gold to a high of $2024.20. As of 4:00 PM EST gold futures basis the most active June 2023 contract is up $8.30, or 0.41%, and fixed at $2015.60.
The dollar had very little input in today’s price gains in gold with the index off fractionally by 0.08% and fixed at 101.585.
Officials of the Federal Reserve continue to express a resolute narrative that is conveying that at least for the near future a pause of interest rate hikes is off the table. Rather, an additional Federal Reserve official today continues to reiterate the need for taking interest rates higher, which will include additional rate hikes, and keeping the elevated level intact for a longer period of time.
Federal Reserve officials will go silent in two days, on Saturday, April 22. The blackout period will remain in effect until the May FOMC meeting has concluded, and a statement is released which will be followed by a press conference with Chairman Powell.
Now three Fed officials have expressed the need to continue to raise interest rates even after the anticipated ¼% rate hike occurs in May. Yesterday, the New York Federal Reserve President, John Williams spoke to a group of bond-market experts known as the Money Marketeers of New York University saying that recent data has indicated that a “trend of slowing inflation is continuing.” He also added that there are some indications of a “gradual cooling in the demand for labor”. However, “Inflation is still too high and we will use our monetary policy tools to restore price stability.”
President Williams's comments can now be added to similar remarks by Fed Governor Christopher Waller and James Bullard.
Wallace said that the Federal Reserve needs to continue raising interest rates because of the high level of inflation. St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said, “The U.S. central bank should continue raising interest rates on the back of recent data showing inflation remains persistent while the broader economy seems poised to continue growing, even if slowly.”
The combination of all three Fed officials expressed a narrative much different than many market participants assumed, which was a pause by the Federal Reserve in rate hikes to begin after one more rate hike in May. Market participants are now factoring in the possibility of additional rate hikes after the expected ¼% hike at the FOMC meeting in May.
The Censorship Industrial Complex Is At It Again With Another Trojan Horse
Just when you think things couldn’t get any worse regarding governmental control over online information, a recent US Bill aimed at reigning in the viral app TikTok has a strong chance of becoming law. In recent years governments worldwide have scrutinized TikTok due to its connections with the Chinese government. This scrutiny has escalated into calls for an outright ban of the social media app in some countries.
The targeting of TikTok is considered a ruse, as some governments are using this bill to ban TikTok as a trojan horse for unprecedented internet censorship. This article explores the various sections of the US bill, their real agenda, and what it means for us as citizens. But first, let’s look at the backstory of TikTok.
TikTok In Context
As mentioned, governments worldwide have been examining TikTok for some time due to its connections to the Chinese government. TikTok, owned by ByteDance, collects an incredible amount of user data. It gathers your name, age, phone number, contacts, location, images, videos, and everything you type, including the messages you send and receive. It can even access your camera and microphone, and it can do all of this even when you're not using the app.
According to TikTok surveillance mediators, they maintain that it's no different from being tracked and traced by an American tech company like, Google or Microsoft. The thing is that there are two significant differences. First, governments need permission to access user data in most Western countries. Secondly, and more importantly, this data is being shared with a foreign government that is the geopolitical rival of most Western powers.
Now, the other part of why there's been so much scrutiny about TikTok is the algorithm. There have been countless reports of TikTok feeding straight-up evil content to people in the West. Recent reports have focused on TikTok’s promotion of eating disorders and suicide.
Meanwhile, Douyin, China's version of TikTok, also owned by ByteDance, shows young people videos of things being built, discoveries being made, and other meaningful things being accomplished. In other words, it promotes the exact opposite kind of content that TikTok does in most Western countries. This is arguably an overt form of information warfare, and it begs the question of what should be done about it. Well, the simple answer is to ban TikTok.
Previous Calls For The TickTok Ban
The former US President, Donald Trump, famously proposed a TickTok ban in 2020. ByteDance initially agreed to meet Trump halfway by selling its US operations to Microsoft. This would keep all the app data collected in the US away from China, but the sale was unsuccessful after ByteDance rejected the offer.
However, US President Joe Biden ditched the TikTok ban idea when he revoked Trump's related executive order in 2021. At the time, the proposed ban was seen as political suicide due to the app’s popularity. But over the last year or so, US politicians have changed their view on TikTok.
TikTok Ban On Government Devices
The renewed calls to ban TikTok began late last year when the Biden Administration formulated the US government's $1.7 trillion spending bill for 2023. A provision to exclude TikTok from government devices is buried in the Bill, which is over 4,000 pages and was passed in December 2022. In the following months, close allies of the US, the UK, and the EU followed suit in banning TikTok from government devices.
This makes sense, considering that TikTok may be sharing sensitive information about these Western government devices with the Chinese government. Then on March 7th, 2023, Democrat politician Mark Warner and Republican politician John Thune introduced a bill titled “Restricting the Emergence of Security Threats that Risk Information and Communications Technology Act” or the “RESTRICT Act.”
The Trojan Horse
Keeping in mind that the bill is supposed to be about banning TikTok, White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan issued a statement applauding the introduction of the Restrict Act. He highlighted the widespread support the bill has received from politicians of both political parties. This means there's a high likelihood that it will become law, but it took people a couple of weeks to realize that the Restrict Act has almost nothing to do with banning TikTok.
People started to notice after TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew testified before Congress, who took advantage of the opportunity to shill the Restrict Act. In the days that followed, the internet erupted with outrage over the bill's contents. Dozens of Twitter threads about these details went viral. Popular alternative media publications on both sides of the political spectrum published dynamic pieces opposing the “insanely broad provisions.”
Not surprisingly, there was almost no coverage from the mainstream media; however, there was quite a bit of coverage from the crypto media because the Restrict Act could be used to ban crypto in the US. Many of the crypto headlines about the bill were about an article published by Coin Center, a crypto think tank based in Washington. D.C.
The act specifies that ‘interest’ includes “the provision of the technology or service.” This means that Americans could face fines and jail time for using cryptocurrencies if any mining or validation is done by an entity or country considered an adversary of the USA. And this barely scratches the surface of how ridiculous the Restrict Act is.
Louis Rossmann, a social media influencer and speaker of truth, breaks down the bill in more detail in this video, adding some significant context.
Dissecting The Restrict Act
The bill begins by specifying that all its powers will be given to the United States Secretary of Commerce. For context, the Secretary of Commerce is appointed by whoever happens to be the president at the time. The majority of senior US politicians approve of this appointment. Next, the bill gives some definitions, and some are worth highlighting.
The first is covered transactions; these are transactions in which a foreign adversary has any interest, as mentioned above. The Secretary of Commerce determines which entity is a foreign adversary. The second definition worth pointing out is critical infrastructure, and its meaning comes from the infamous Patriot Act.
The Patriot Act defines critical infrastructure in such a way that it can apply to basically anything that the government sees fit. The third definition is foreign adversary because it actually includes a few examples. It lists China, Cuba, Iran, North Korea, and Russia.
The next section of the bill deals with “Information and communication, technology products that pose an undue or unacceptable risk.” Once again, the Secretary of Commerce determines which information and technology pose a risk to the United States' national security.
The bill notes one risk as anything that could “undermine democratic processes and institutions or steer policy and regulatory decisions in favor of the strategic objectives of a foreign adversary.”
In other words, if you oppose the US government in any way, you're in big trouble. This ties into something in the seventh section of the bill: lobbyists will be allowed to advise the Secretary of Commerce as to which products and services should be labeled foreign adversaries and banned in the US. This would inevitably lead to a monopoly in every industry.
In section 11, the bill reveals exactly what fines and jail time Americans would suffer for interacting, in any way, with an entity deemed a foreign adversary or doing anything that could be labeled a risk to national security. It starts by saying that attempts to evade these laws are illegal and considered code for a crackdown on virtual private networks or VPNs. This was one aspect of the bill that went viral.
For reference, VPNs provide privacy when browsing websites and accessing foreign websites. Louis noted that the US government has been trying to ban VPNs for at least 15 years.
Then when it comes to the actual punishments, Americans can face up to $250,000 in fines for civil penalties. For criminal penalties, fines can be as much as $1 million or up to 20 years in prison and even result in the government seizing your assets—still no mention of banning TikTok.
But wait, there's more. In the 12th section of the bill, there's a sentence that reads,
“Actions taken by the secretary, under this act, shall not be subject to sections 551, 553 through 559, and 701 through 707 of title 5, United States Code.”
Louis looked up the sections in his video, discovering that the above statement means there's no oversight. Specifically, it will not be possible for Americans to submit Freedom of Information requests to understand why the Secretary of Commerce labels some entities as foreign adversaries or some activities as high risk.
As a cherry on top, neither Congress nor the courts can request information. These disturbing details are why the Restrict Act is referred to as the ‘Patriot Act for the Internet’ or Patriot Act 2.0. For those unfamiliar, the Patriot Act was passed in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks in 2001. Its provisions permitted spying on everyone in the name of fighting terrorism.
Notably, the Patriot Act was supposed to be temporary, but in 2013, an intelligence consultant named Edward Snowden blew the whistle on the ongoing surveillance. He also revealed that other governments worldwide are engaged in similarly extensive levels of domestic surveillance.
The Geniune Ban TikTok Bill
The Restrict Act Bill is causing a backlash against all the other bills trying to ban TikTok. This was apparent when Rand Paul blocked Josh Hawley's bill to fast-track his bill to ban TikTok.
In stark contrast to the Restrict Act, the originally titled “No TikTok on United States Devices Act” does actually ban Tick-Tock. More importantly, this bill doesn't have provisions that give the government more power. It's only four sections long and provides specifics about the TikTok ban.
Josh's arguments for banning TikTok are the same as the ones mentioned above. TikTok collects everything. It shares sensitive data with the CCP about journalists and politicians, and this ban has been a long time coming. He also revealed that TikTok has been lobbying against the ban.
Rand's reason for blocking Josh's TikTok ban was that it set a dangerous precedent for the US government to do the same to other apps it doesn't like. He also argued that it goes against the First Amendment (free speech) and that banning TikTok in the US is technically illegal. Rand then proclaimed that people have the ability to know what's good and evil and uninstall the app if they feel it's bad for them. He said that you should fear your own government, not China's, and asked if internet censorship is more dangerous than questionable content.
Josh retaliated by saying that the First Amendment doesn't protect China's ability to spy on US citizens. He also implied that TikTok’s lobbyists had paid Rand to block his attempt to fast-track the ban. This view is highly questionable as Rand is a Libertarian; he is cautious of all governments everywhere. Sadly, all the internet censorship laws being rolled out by governments globally could soon suppress his valid viewpoints.
TheTikTok Ban Debate. Should TikTok Be Banned?
Social media platforms like TikTok could be considered psychological drugs, and they come with unique benefits and risks. Suppose [they] ban this mental drug; the likelihood is that people will still find some way to get their hands on it. In this case, using VPNs and the like. This is a problem because [they] would lose oversight of how this drug is being used, and attempts to crack down on VPNs also wouldn't go over well and would be opposed.
What if this mental drug was allowed? It’s more likely that it will be relentlessly promoted by the individuals and institutions that profit from it. This is a problem because it would lead to excess consumption and give rise to the kind of extreme content that we see on most social media today. Instagram has effectively copied its video flow.
As such, the toxic algorithms would persist due to the perverse incentive structure that comes with legalization. The only thing you would have addressed is sharing user data with the Chinese government. Instead, it would likely be shared with the US government. Remember, the Patriot Act still exists.
The same outcome would occur if ByteDance were forced to sell TikTok to an American company. It would just be replacing the Chinese government with the US government. Sensitive data would still be shared, and given how the US government has been acting lately, that would be the same in practice.
The one thing this debate centers around is the government. An accurate consensus to end the discourse would be to get the government out of social media. Rand Paul is on the right track, but he and many others know it would be impossible while social media remains centralized.
The Solution To Subjugation
Society must be allowed to think for themselves and act accordingly. But we all know this is not what the ‘powers that be’ want. Truth be told, governments have reached a new level of corruption, deep-seated to the core. You may know that leaks from classified documents are emerging and broadcast over the internet, exposing their corruption and agenda.
The censorship industrial complex is weaponizing the leaks against citizens and corporations that do not comply with the globalist’s agenda. The Restrict Act they are trying to pass will serve as the weapon. The Internet is vast and way too sophisticated to be controlled. With the acceleration of technology, cryptocurrency, and decentralization on the move, nobody, not even the elites, can stop the truth from coming out.
The genuine and decentralized entities and social media platforms that have diverged from government-controlled legacy media that support “we the people” are a sanctuary from the evil in this world. There will always be a way to circumvent the oppression [they] are trying to orchestrate. As explained in this video, they are behind all the woke trends and ideologies they want to enforce, destroying our traditional God-given social culture.
Know that things are falling apart for these mega-corporations and so-called rulers as they scramble to keep their secrets and cover-ups hidden from us, dating back decades if not centuries. Be safe in the knowledge that the Divine source, a higher power, is at play to bring humanity into a new golden age.
Editor and Chief Markethive: Deb Williams. (Australia) I thrive on progress and champion freedom of speech. I embrace "Change" with a passion, and my purpose in life is to enlighten people to accept and move forward with enthusiasm. Find me at my Markethive Profile Page | My Twitter Account | and my LinkedIn Profile.
Regain your own power, stop accepting blame, and begin building an amazing life!
Whether you are a C-level executive, a salesperson or the CEO of your company, it's important to know how to take back your personal power. When people blame others for their problems and don't take responsibility for their own actions, they are not in a position to change anything. If you blame others for your problems, then you will never be able to create an incredible life for yourself. But remember that you weren't born with this ability—it took time and effort for other people in your life to convince you that there was something wrong with them instead of something wrong with the way they were handling things. So if you want to stop blaming others (and start creating an incredible life), here's what I recommend:
The problem is the belief that you are powerless.
This is one of the most common beliefs that people have about themselves, and it's a big mistake! If you believe that your power comes from outside of yourself instead of inside, then when someone takes away or limits your access to external sources of power (like money or material possessions), it will feel like an attack on who you are as a person. This can make it difficult for some people to accept help from others because they feel like they're being taken advantage of by asking for assistance when they "should be able" to do everything themselves without any help whatsoever.
However–and this is important!–your own personal sense of worthiness does not depend on whether or not someone else gives them something valuable; rather than requiring validation from others before feeling worthy enough as human beings ourselves, we should be focusing our energy on doing things in service toward improving ourselves first so that we may live happier lives overall!
You do not have to be a rescuer
You do not have to be a rescuer. You cannot control other people's behavior or the past, but you can change how you deal with these things in your life.
If people are constantly blaming you for their problems and issues, then they need to take responsibility for themselves and their actions instead of passing it off on others. This is not your fault! The past cannot be changed; only lessons can be learned from it so that we can make better decisions going forward in our lives. The same goes for other people's behavior–you cannot change it because they have their own choices in what they choose to do (or not do).
You can take responsibility for your own life.
You are responsible for your own life and no one else is. You are the only person who can change or control your life, everyone else is just along for the ride. No matter how much we wish it were different, this is how it works. And if you want to create an incredible life then taking responsibility for yourself has to be part of the equation!
So what does this mean exactly? It means that if something isn't working out in your world – whether that be relationships with friends/family members or career struggles – then there's only one thing left: YOU! Part of taking back our personal power is realizing that we cannot control another person's actions (or reactions). Sure, maybe there were signs early on but if someone chooses not listen despite being warned repeatedly then chances are nothing will work out between them anyway even if they did listen at first."
You are in control of your own consciousness
You are in control of your own consciousness. You are responsible for the thoughts that create your reality.
You can choose to change those thoughts and change your reality, or you can choose not to change them and keep creating the same old results over and over again.
It's up to you!
Your problems are caused by your beliefs, not external circumstances.
You may have heard this before and it's true because our beliefs are the result of past experiences that we've had and they can also be changed with the right tools. Beliefs are something that we create ourselves through our own choices, so if you don't like how things are going in your life right now then it's time to change those old negative beliefs into new empowering ones!
The only way to ensure that you're in control of your own power is to start taking responsibility for it.
Stop blaming others. If something goes wrong, don't make excuses or try to shift the blame onto someone else–take ownership of your part in what happened and make a plan for how you can fix it next time.
Stop playing victim! You are not a victim! You are responsible for your own happiness and well-being; no one else can do that for you but yourself! Don't let anyone tell you otherwise (especially if they are trying to get something out of it). If someone does try this tactic on me now though… I just smile politely at them then walk away because I know better now!
I hope this article has helped you to see that you are in control of your own life and power. You don't have to be a victim or a rescuer, as it's only your beliefs that hold you back from creating an incredible life. Once you realize that there is no one else who can save or blame but yourself, then it will become much easier for you to take responsibility for everything in your world!
Robert Kiyosaki projects huge backlash for dollar as US is no longer ‘playground bully’
by Ana Nicenko
After France and China signed several economic agreements involving sectors like transport, energy, culture, agriculture, and science, Robert Kiyosaki described the situation as the United States being thrown out of the global financial ‘playground’ where it used to be the main ‘bully.’
Indeed, the author of the best-selling personal finance book ‘Rich Dad Poor Dad,’ believes that other countries are no longer tolerating the US, which used to be the ‘big bully,’ as he explained in the episode of The Rich Dad Radio Show podcast streamed on April 19.
“The US has been the big bully in the play yard. Suddenly, all the other kids are saying, ‘Well, you’re not going to be the bully anymore. We’re going to gang up on you.’ That’s what the BRICS said, ‘Hey, we’re going to take you down, bully.’”
According to Kiyosaki, the most recent proof of this is France cooperating with China. As he said, “That’s one of our biggest trading partners saying, ‘[expletive] you US, we’re going to deal with China in Chinese currency, not the US dollar.’ The average American has no idea what that means.”
As the main consequence of this, the author warned of the possibility of hyperinflation, dictatorship, and mass murder, which he believes would happen because the US dollar, now no longer the global reserve currency, is going to flood back America.
In Kiyosaki’s view, the seeds for this were sown a long time ago. In 1944, the US signed the Bretton Woods agreement, in which the world agreed to trade in USD. But now, this “is falling apart because Triffin’s Dilemma (…) meant the US had to supply dollars to every central bank throughout the world, so we had to print probably quadrillion of dollars.”
“The BRICS nations [will] gang up against the bully, they [will] say, ‘Take your dollars back,’ and when those dollars come roaring back into America, we have a thing called hyperinflation, and every time there’s hyperinflation – guess what happens – dictators arise, and when dictators arise, the murder starts.”
Moreover, Kiyosaki recalled that US President Nixon took the USD off the gold standard in 1971, which is when it “became fake money, and that’s when I started buying gold and silver.” According to him, Nixon’s actions violated Gresham’s Law, which says that “when bad money enters a system, good money goes into hiding.”
Notably, Kiyosaki has earlier warned about the possible role of the USD in the financial collapse that he believes is threatening America, which “has been violating all of these laws of money for all these years,” and that the world has now had enough of it.
To circumvent the potential consequences of the USD becoming useless, he has long argued for investing in alternative assets, such as gold, silver, and Bitcoin (BTC), which he believes is the best way to protect against inflation and safeguard one’s wealth, as Finbold reported
Fed narrative alarms traders who believe that a rate pause is imminent after the May rate hike
Recent volatility led to diminished bullish market sentiment for gold causing a price break and taking gold futures to $1980.90 before recovering. This morning in New York traders witnessed a quick and powerful price decline in gold breaking $20 below $2000 and recovering just as quickly as it sold off.
This was in response to Federal Reserve officials who continue to reiterate the need for taking interest rates higher. Federal Reserve officials will go silent one week before the May FOMC meeting beginning on Saturday, April 22.
Two Fed officials have been extremely vocal both suggesting the need to continue to raise interest rates even after the anticipated ¼% rate hike occurs in May.
Last week Fed Governor Christopher Waller said that the Federal Reserve needs to continue raising interest rates because of the high level of inflation. "Economic output and employment are continuing to grow at a solid pace while inflation remains much too high," Waller said, noting that investors should not expect rates to fall any time soon. "Monetary policy will need to remain tight for a substantial period of time, and longer than markets anticipate,".
Fed Governor Waller was resolute when he spoke on Friday saying, “Despite a year of aggressive rate increases U.S. central bankers "haven't made much progress" in returning inflation to their 2% target and need to move interest rates higher still.”
Addressing current inflationary pressures Waller said that inflation has "basically moved sideways with no apparent downward movement… Monetary policy needs to be tightened further. How much further will depend on incoming data on inflation, the real economy, and the extent of tightening credit conditions."
James Bullard and Christopher Waller both strongly believe that the economy and inflation continue to remain stronger than expected.
Reuters posted an interview yesterday with St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard who also underscored the need for higher U.S. interest rates to combat inflation. During the interview, Federal President Bullard said, “The U.S. central bank should continue raising interest rates on the back of recent data showing inflation remains persistent while the broader economy seems poised to continue growing, even if slowly.”
Both Fed officials expressed a narrative much different than many market participants assumed, which is a pause by the Federal Reserve in rate hikes to begin after one more rate hike in May. The assumption that the Federal Reserve will stop their consecutive rate hikes at every FOMC meeting since March 2022 diminished based on the most recent narrative by Waller and Bullard.
The chart above is a 30-minute Japanese candlestick chart of gold futures. It shows how quickly gold sold off during the morning trading session in New York after breaking below the support trendline at $2013. The chart also indicates that gold recovered as quickly as it sold off. As of 5:30 PM EST, the most active June 2023 futures contract is down $12.30 and fixed at $2007.40.
Gold has found support above $2000 aided by the belief the Fed will pause hikes soon
Over the last 10 trading days, gold futures have effectively closed above $2000 per ounce. Although on an intraday basis, gold has moved below $2000 on three occasions, gold prices recovered and closed above $2000 on each instance.
On April 3, gold futures opened at $1990, traded to a high of $2007 and closed just at $2000 per ounce. On the following day, April 4 gold opened above $2000 and closed at $2038. This marked the first of 10 consecutive days in which gold closed above that critically important psychological level.
Market participants have been solidly bullish about gold based on the belief that the Federal Reserve could stop raising rates after the May FOMC meeting. The belief that the Fed will pause rate hikes after one final ¼% hike in May has ignited strong bullish market sentiment for gold pricing.
Because there is an intrinsic lag between rate hikes and the effect on contracting the economy the Federal Reserve will need to pause at some point to gauge the outcome of raising rates at every FOMC meeting since March 2022.
This optimism has pressured the dollar and yields lower and concurrently moved gold futures above $2000 per ounce. Recent volatility and diminished bullish market sentiment for gold have been in response to Federal Reserve officials who continue to reiterate the need for taking interest rates higher. Last week Fed Governor Christopher Waller said that the Federal Reserve needs to continue raising interest rates because of the high level of inflation. Reuters posted an interview today with St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard who also underscored the need for higher U.S. interest rates to combat inflation
Market participants will continue to focus on more comments from Fed officials this week before the Feds standard blackout period that will begin on April 22, ahead of the May FOMC meeting.
As of 5 PM EST gold futures basis the most active June 2023 contract is up $10.80 and fixed at $2017.80. Spot gold has moved back above $2000 and is currently up $9.91 and fixed at $2004.80.
Gold futures trade to $1993.40 and recover back above $2000
As of 4:25 PM EST, gold futures basis the most active June 2023 contract is trading down $8.50 or 0.42% and fixed at $2007.20. In earlier trading market participants actively moved gold below the key psychological level of $2000, taking June gold to its intraday low of $1993.40.
Today’s price decline in gold can be 100% attributed to dollar strength. Currently, the dollar is up 0.54%, however, when compared to gold’s decline of -0.41% investors are bidding the precious yellow metal fractionally higher.
Spot gold is also trading lower with dollar strength being 100% responsible for the decline. Currently, spot gold is fixed at $1994.40 a decline of -0.45%. However, on closer inspection dollar strength accounted for $-11.00, and normal trading add + $1.90 resulting in today’s $9.10 decline, according to the Kitco Gold Index (KGX).
Recent statements by members of the Federal Reserve have maintained its current hawkish demeanor underscoring the need for the Fed to continue raising interest rates. On Friday speaking at a conference in San Antonio Texas Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said, “Because financial conditions have not significantly tightened, the labor market continues to be strong and quite tight, and inflation is far above target, so monetary policy needs to be tightened further.”
Governor Waller called the most recent March CPI report “mixed news” that indicated that the Federal Reserve has not made much progress on its goal to reduce inflation. He referenced core consumer prices rising 0.4% or higher for the last four consecutive months as proof that the Federal Reserve needs to continue its aggressive stance of rate hikes.
It must be noted that some economists including Mohamed El-Erian and BlackRock are convinced that inflation is not on track anywhere near the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%. In a note, a strategist at BlackRock said, "Inflation in the US is not on track to settle anywhere close to the Federal Reserve's 2% target, in our view. That was reinforced by March inflation data,"
This is in line with CME’s FedWatch tool that reveals there is an 86.7% probability that the Federal Reserve will implement another rate hike of ¼% which would take their terminal benchmark rate to between 5% and 5 ¼%.
Persistently high inflation will continue to be highly supportive of gold as pricing builds a base and eventual support at $2000 per ounce.
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Consider whether you'd rather to be cheerful and encouraged rather than cry dejected tears and wail hysterically.
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Inflation may moderate, but pension funds aren't taking any changes as they increase their exposure to gold and commodities – Ortec Finance
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