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Gold prices remains under pressure as US retail sales drop 1 in March

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Gold prices remains under pressure as U.S. retail sales drop 1% in March

Recession fears could start to pick up again as U.S. consumers cut back on their spending, with retail sales numbers dropping more than expected last month.

U.S. retail sales dropped 1.0% in March, following a revised 0.2% decline in February, according to the latest data from the U.S. Commerce Department. Economists expected a decrease of 0.4%% in last month's headline number.

Core sales, which strip out vehicle sales, also missed expectations, falling 0.8% last month versus the projected decline of 0.1%. The report's control group, which strips out autos, gas, building materials, and food services, dropped 0.3%, falling in line with the consensus forecast.

The disappointing economic data is not having much impact on gold as the market sees some technical selling pressure after Thursday's rally to a fresh 13-month high. June gold futures last traded at $2,045.60 an ounce, down 0.47% on the day.

Along with gold, the weaker-than-expected retail sales numbers are not having much impact on market expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision next month. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets see roughly a 70% chance that the U.S. central bank will raise interest rates by 25 basis points in May. At the same time, markets still see the Federal Reserve cutting rates by the summer.

By

Neils Christensen

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

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Wild daily swings define gold price action on its path to record highs focus on Fed speak and bank earnings next week

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Wild daily swings define gold price action on its path to record highs, focus on Fed speak and bank earnings next week

The gold market is ending the week with another massive move. After rising to a 13-month high Thursday, gold gave up all weekly gains Friday, falling $40 on the day.

On the macro level, the gold market is reacting to positive economic news and some hawkish Federal Reserve speak.

"It wasn't just the data today, you had the banks starting to report earnings. JPMorgan crushed it with record revenue. Wells Fargo's numbers were pretty good. The deposits were okay. It looks like one of the big risks might not be unfolding right now," OANDA senior market analyst Edward Moya told Kitco News. "You're looking at this economy that is still holding up a little bit. And then you get some hawkish Fed speak. That's why gold sold off."

This idea that the Fed could somehow pull off a soft landing has encouraged profit-taking after gold hit $2,063 an ounce this week — just inches away from record highs.

"That view is a little too optimistic, but it is the market's take right now. We've gone from focusing on how much the Fed will cut at the end of the year to possibly considering a June hike," Moya said.

The hawkish sentiment, however, could quickly dissipate with more macro data. "Monetary policy acts with a lag, and with the restrictive territory that we're seeing, things could start to break soon," Moya added.

Also, the latest producer price index numbers showed that inflation might have peaked, giving the Fed room to pause after May's 25-basis-point hike, said Gainesville Coins precious metals expert Everett Millman.

"If inflation is coming down and there are still banking problems, the Fed doesn't have a lot of good reason to keep its foot on the pedal and hike after May," Millman told Kitco News. "During the May 2-3 meeting, gold will only react if there is an emergency rate cut or a 50-bps hike. Both are unlikely."

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic told Reuters Thursday that the Fed will need only one more rate hike. Recent data points "are consistent with us moving one more time," Bostic said. "We've got a lot of momentum suggesting that we're on the path to 2%."

In contrast, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said Friday that there is little progress on inflation and rates will need to move higher.

Inflation has "basically moved sideways with no apparent downward movement," Waller said. "Monetary policy needs to be tightened further. How much further will depend on incoming data on inflation, the real economy, and the extent of tightening credit conditions."

Technicals have played a big role in the gold's selloff Friday, with lots of profit-taking flooding the market.

"This is more of a technical selloff than anything," Forex.com senior technical strategist Michael Boutros told Kitco News. "Pent-up long positions are coming off. But price pullbacks should be limited. The war is still going on, and there is a devaluation of the dollar as a global standard. This will help the gold rally stay afloat long-term."

Boutros is looking at the $1,966 level as support, which was April's open. "If we hold that support, it will be just a minor setback for gold," he said.

For Millman, gold's key support levels are at around $2,015 and $2,000, and resistance is at all-time highs of around $2,070. "There is no clear support level if we fall below $2,000. Gold can go to $1,900," he said.

At the time of writing, June Comex gold futures were trading at $2,015.40, down $40 on the day.

Next week, attention will be on bank earnings, including Goldman Sachs and Bank of America. "I anticipate that those are all bullish for gold. We're going to see markets remain volatile," Moya said.

Next week's data

Monday: NY Empire State manufacturing index

Tuesday: U.S. building permits and housing starts

Thursday: ECB meeting minutes, U.S. jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, U.S. existing home sales,

By

Anna Golubova

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

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Gold prices slide lower as UofM consumer sentiment rises to 635

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Gold prices slide lower as UofM consumer sentiment rises to 63.5

Stronger-than-expected U.S. consumer sentiment is adding further selling pressure to gold and is solidifying expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 25 basis points next month.

Friday, the University of Michigan said the preliminary reading of its Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 63.5, down up from 62.0 in March. The data beat expectations as consensus forecasts called for a roughly unchanged reading in consumer sentiment.

"Sentiment is now about 3% below a year ago but 27% above the all-time low from last June," the report said.

The gold market has seen sold selling pressure ahead of the weekend as investors take profits after prices hit a 13-month high Thursday. The better-than-expected data is adding to gold's correction. June gold futures last traded at $2,030.90 an ounce, down more than 1% on the day.

According to analysts, gold is seeing some selling pressure as consumer inflation expectations support calls for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates again next month. According to the survey, consumers see inflation rising 4.6% by this time next year, up from 3.6% reported in March.

"While consumers have noted the easing of inflation among durable goods and cars, they still expect high inflation to persist, at least in the short run," the report said. "These expectations have been seesawing for four consecutive months, alternating between increases and decreases. Uncertainty over short-run inflation expectations continues to be notably elevated, indicating that the recent volatility in expected year-ahead inflation is likely to continue."

Long term, consumers see inflation relatively stable at 2.9%, unchanged for the fifth consecutive month. Five-year inflation expectations have moved in a range between 2.9% and 3.1% for 20 of the last 21 months, the report said.

Markets now see a more than 85% chance that the Federal Reserve will continue to tighten interest rates. Forecasts for the Federal Reserve's rate cut are also being pushed back until after the summer.

By

Neils Christensen

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

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Gold silver hit 13-mo highs on tame US PPI slumping USDX

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Gold, silver hit 13-mo. highs on tame U.S. PPI, slumping USDX

Gold and silver prices are sharply higher in midday U.S. trading Thursday and scored 13-month highs. The metals bulls are being fueled by a tame U.S. inflation report, a slumping U.S. dollar index and rising crude oil prices. Gold bulls are now confident they can breach the all-time record high of $2,078.80, basis nearby Comex futures, sooner rather than later. June gold was last up $28.40 at $2,053.20 and May silver is up $0.437 at $25.90.

Today’s U.S. producer price index report for March showed a decline of 0.5% from February versus expectations for a steady reading. The report helped to put more downside pressure on the U.S. dollar index, which hit a 2.5-month low today. The tamer PPI report follows a slightly milder consumer price index report released Wednesday that came in at up 5.0%, year-on-year, compared to market expectations for a rise of 5.1%. However, the core CPI number came in 0.1% higher than expected.

  Five reasons why you should be overweight gold in today's uncertain markets – abrdn's Minter

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are higher at midday. The other key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices are a bit weaker after hitting a five-month high Wednesday, presently trading around $82.50 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.422%.

Technically, June gold futures bulls have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the all-time high of $2,078.80, scored in March of 2022. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the April low of $1,965.90. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $2,063.40 and then at $2,078.80. First support is seen at today’s low of $2,028.30 and then at Wednesday’s low of $2,015.70. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 9.0

May silver futures bulls have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a steep four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $27.50. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $23.50. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $26.115 and then at $26.50. Next support is seen at today’s low of $25.515 and then at Wednesday’s low of $25.175. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 9.0.

May N.Y. copper closed up 410 points at 412.20 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session high and hit a three-week high today. The copper bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the January high of 435.90 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the April low of 392.60 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 414.30 cents and then at 417.45 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 405.35 cents and then at 400.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

By

Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

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Become Your Own Bank

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Become Your Own Bank

It seems that traditional banking is on life support. This article looks at the recent update in support of this premise and explores how to become your own bank in light of our crumbling banking system.

Current Reality | Traditional Banking

You will already be aware of the collapse of Silvergate Capital, Silicon Valley Bank, and Signature Bank, and many are predicting that this is only the beginning of a domino effect. If you live outside America, you may be concerned about where your bank now stands. 

You could check in with your bank to see whether they conducted a recent stress test and, if so, how they fared. A stress test looks at a bank’s financial capacity to tolerate sharp economic downturns.

The problem with relying on this feedback is that banks do not wish to cause panic because this would result in a bank run. So it may be wise to hold that data on a loose palm, so to speak.

Bear in mind that when you deposit money into the banks, it does not stay in your account. The banks trade deposits for profits without your permission and keep any profits while continuing to charge you for custody of your money. 

Since the stock market is also collapsing, if a bank run were to occur, there would not be enough money for everyone to access their accounts.

With the implosion of the markets surpassing that of 2008 while economic depression looking likely to overtake the Great Depression of the 1930s, the signs are that traditional banking is coming to an end.


Image source: Wikimedia Commons

There is a growing concern that the bank collapse is entirely orchestrated to bring down cryptocurrency, remove cash from our society and usher in the Central Bank Digital Currency. (CBDC) In other words, any competitor to the CBDC is being removed by fair or foul means.

If you still think this is not imminent, take a look at this latest CBDC chart of which stage countries are at with the adoption of the CBDC. You can see the reality playing out, which lends credence to the theory of orchestration.


Image source: Atlantic Council

There is no democratic process about this either. In Nigeria, for example, they started to bring in their digital currency, the eNaira, which very few people wanted. 

The government declared cash as no longer valid or legal, then charged citizens as much as 20% for withdrawing cash. Riots and violence broke out in the wake of this. Through lack of cash, more than half of their population has reportedly been forced to adopt the eNaira.

Europe is following closely behind, with Christine Lagarde imposing a $1000 spending cash limit with the threat of imprisonment if you do otherwise! With each passing conversation, CBDCs are revealing themselves to be about surveillance and control and not about enjoying the fruits of your labor.

America seems to be about to do something of a segway to a CBDC via their FedNow instant payment service, which is due to launch this summer of 2023. It doesn’t look good for the world in general. If this plays out to the mapped agenda above, then cash and traditional banking have their days numbered.

Also, be mindful that there is a move to depart from the dollar as the world's default currency. This is true of the BRICS countries, who are discussing their own digital currency, possibly backed by precious metals such as gold.

The Alternative | Become Your Own Bank

The question arises as to what you can do about it and how you can protect your personal assets as well as your business concerns. Some consider we have no choice but to accept the new global agenda, but that depends on how much we care about people and democracy. We have been here before in 2008 on a smaller scale, so we have an opportunity to learn from the lessons this imparted.

While nothing is guaranteed in life, what is certain is that if you do not prioritize finding an alternative safeguard that protects your interest against this draconian agenda, it will be dictated to you and not for your benefit.

So what does it mean to become your own bank? Since banking is supposed to be about the safe custody and access to your funds, it is about how you can replicate that for yourself in a decentralized manner. 

When Richard Werner carried out his 15-year study about banks and the double-entry bookkeeping that takes place to give the illusion of money, he also concluded that we need more community banks that will support local businesses. You may want to listen to his thoughts here.

You may wish to research community banks in the quest to find a safer haven for your business and personal affairs.

In a recent Markethive webinar, our CEO Thomas Prendergast pointed out another option in America that is open to businesses worldwide and is both decentralized and supportive of cryptocurrency.

He demonstrated how to set up a Wyoming Corporation first of all, even if you do not live in the USA. Here is a document you can download that walks you through the particulars of setting up your Wyoming company.

This is an important first step to acquiring banking through a fintech company called Mercury which facilitates banking services through its partners with decentralization at its core and solid insurance cover.

You may also want to consider using physically allocated gold and silver to transact with. It used to be that you could only hold these as a long-term store of value. However, platforms like Kinesis and Glintpay now make it possible to digitize gold via a debit card so that you can transact accordingly.

There is much ambivalence about cryptocurrency, given the volatile nature of its market and the frequent rise of pump-and-dump schemes. However, bitcoin remains the longstanding cryptocurrency that continues to gather in adoption, so you can research businesses that accept bitcoin and do so yourself depending on the demand.

For example, PostFinance, a major government financial organization in Switzerland, has partnered with Sygnum to offer cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin to its customers. A more transitional approach may be to consider gold-backed cryptocurrencies such as Tether Gold or DigixGlobal.

Taxes

The other consideration around cryptocurrency is taxes, and this will vary from country to country. Here in the United Kingdom, the following needs to be factored into money management.

Starting in 2024/2025, the self-assessment form will have a place for capital assets to report gains and losses in cryptocurrency. Cryptocurrency will be subject to capital gains tax. In 2024 the capital gains tax-free allowance will be heavily reduced from the current 12, 300 ton 3,000.

Security

Security is essential when becoming your own bank, hence the layers of security that Markethive are building into their own wallet.  Security is often an afterthought for many delving into the world of cryptocurrency, but responsibility is a key part of any money management system, particularly a decentralized system.

The password concept with opening crypto wallets is different in that you are usually assigned a mnemonic of 12-24 words which act as your security password for that wallet. If you lose it, there is no calling upon a central authority to issue you with a new one, as in a password recovery. So the buck stops with you.

Therefore it is important to write your words down safely on paper rather than online, where you are open to being hacked, and then ideally to put them in a small fireproof safe.

Many decentralized platforms have two-factor authentication as part of their security setup. You must pass this security layer to access the platform in question. It can also be used to confirm transactions. You can learn more about how that works in this Markethive tutorial example.

While there are decentralized exchanges like Yobit and decentralized exchanges within wallets such as Atomic Wallet, it is also important to have a cold storage wallet. This is a physical wallet offline which enables safe custody of your assets.

Cold wallets like Ledger and Trezor are well-known options, but there are other alternatives, such as secure encrypted flash drives in which you can place your wallet. They do not involve KYC or ‘Know Your Customer,’ and you can boot off the stick itself rather than the hard drive using a Linux operating system.

Summary

It stands to reason that the long-term acceptance of any cryptocurrency or alternative currency will be determined by the combination of a growing community and the use value of its native cryptocurrency. 

This is where Markethive is innovating and leading the way to show that it is possible to establish an ecosystem outside of traditional banking and the proposed CBDC.

You can also appreciate why such innovation is so painstaking, particularly as Markethive is building the technology in such a way to be independent of third parties, who may become compromised by their government mandates and, therefore, negatively disrupt the ecosystem.

As Markethive nears launch, we now have the visible signs and tangible formation of what it is like to have an operational ecosystem that puts the destiny of entrepreneurs back in their hands. 

Entrepreneurs can now trade their products and services and transact with a native coin or token without the censorship or threats to privacy that are now commonplace online. 

With a growing community of beyond 200,000, this is what is possible when the entrepreneur arises and comes together in a community with like-minded entrepreneurs to solve real-world problems in service to humanity as a force for good.

This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.
 

 

 

About: Anita Narayan. (United Kingdom) My life's work is about helping individuals to greater freedom through joy and purpose without self-sabotage, so that inspirational legacy can serve generations to come. Find me at my Markethive Profile Page | My Twitter Account | and my LinkedIn Profile.

 

 

 

 

Also published @ BeforeIt’sNews.com;  Substack.com:

Tim Moseley

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Seven Steps to Success with Positive Thinking and Your Creative Mind

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Seven Steps to Success with Positive Thinking and Your Creative Mind

mind

Somewhere in the back of your mind, you've got a brilliant idea that you can't wait to try out. Do you really want to bring it to light, is the question. What could inspire you to stir your inventive, creative fluids to their full flavor?

Somewhere in the back of your mind, you've got a brilliant idea that you can't wait to try out. Do you really want to bring it to light, is the question. What could inspire you to stir your inventive, creative fluids to their full flavor?

Did you know that giving your personal goals a deadline always helps? Prepare yourself to finish the most chores in the shortest amount of time possible. Taking care of the grass an hour before the big game on TV, as an example. Whatever you do, having the right attitude will make it simpler and even more fun.

It's easy. You will start to realize things that you never imagined were conceivable if you start to give yourself permission to believe positively. Indeed, the American Way of thinking large is what brought prosperity to our nation. You can emulate other notable Americans who used their imagination to think big.

 

ecosystem for entrepreneurs

Even if you're just lounging on your favorite couch, learn some strategies to get through your first week of possibility thinking. Your mind is working for you all the time. Utilize its fantastic resource while going about your daily business.

1. Act. To live your life according to design, you must act with passion. Speech is cheap. Action is like making deposits in the bank of an ardently genuine future. My mother used to say, "Action speaks louder than words" (possibly paraphrasing someone else). Passion is meaningless without action.

You can easily start by fiddling with your thoughts before moving on to your hands to make your dreams a reality. You can always return to the concept later to complete it if it wanes or falters. Before the first functional light bulb started to illuminate the world, Thomas Edison and his Dream Team had to return to the notion of a light bulb and recalculate it more than 1,000 times.

2. Love. Be devoted to oneself. Then make a powerful commitment to those you love to build a life you can adore. Commit to producing from your heart and soul, out of love rather than fear, rather than responding. The American Dream will always exist, but a dream without motion will still be a dream. As the metamorphosis starts, be astounded.

3. Live. Seize opportunities and moments. Recognize and accept the idea that every moment is ideal regardless of how it turns out. Why not give something a try even if it seems too radical every time you come up with an idea? Check to see if it will. The results could surprise you. If not, make a decision to take advantage of the situation to change course and learn from it. Living involves making errors, failing, and learning from them. 

4. Show gratitude. Totally immerse yourself in your thankfulness. Learn to use what you have to your advantage and to do so in a positive way. The invention process is driven by necessity. Have you ever been without something essential and been forced to make due with another thing? (MacGyver, from the well-known TV program, was well-known for that!) How appreciative were you that you have the means to deal with your predicament? When you consistently move away from poverty consciousness and towards thankfulness, slipping into neediness will become less of a habit.

5. Display Passion. Use the Recognize/Reevaluate/Restore passion formula instead of the Shoulda/Woulda/Coulda whirlwind. While the latter emphasizes poverty and scarcity, the former is predicated on growing knowledge and wealth. Allow yourself to comprehend that the task is just as vital as delivering commands to your subordinates as you deal with people or tasks that may appear more difficult than ascending the Himalayas. You prefer to be deeply passionate!

6. Laugh. Keep comedy at the forefront of your mind and, whenever you can, laugh at and with yourself. When you relax, you could discover yourself to be pretty entertaining! Though his quips are "old as great-grandma," I have never witnessed a comedian go hungry. Life offers far too much to let yourself wallow in self-pity. Humor is extremely alluring, intense, and life-giving. 

7. Determine Your Goal. Recognize that you are the designer of your future. A very motivating factor is realizing how you want to be remembered after this life. Your raison d'être might range from something as straightforward as being a great parent to something as complex as finding miraculous treatments.

 

ecosystem for entrepreneurs

 

When you have a clear purpose, nobody else but you can take away your passionate future! There is no limit to what you can do in a lifetime as long as you still have breath in your body. You may love your work by finding and pursuing your mission. Enjoy the realization that following the impulses of your creative mind will help you achieve your goals. Watch as everything comes together perfectly and passionately. 

Engage your optimistic thought process. Experiment with your imagination. Think more broadly than you feel capable of. Do what you think. Here, taking action is the best advice. You should begin using these techniques.

Consider this: It is regrettable that so many people still do not utilize computers due to the perception that they are difficult to use at first. Or perhaps they simply continue to postpone it till a more convenient moment. These are only a few of the restrictions one can place on themself. Many are like a dim light in a dark place due to limitations and a failure to take advantage of ideas and chances. 

Alert! You are not destined for the gloom. You want to lead a meaningful and loving life. Your brilliant, original concept is about to come to life. Because you are reading this essay, you are motivated to take action. Fortunately, if you really want something, the drive to get it will inspire you to think of a solution.

All that's left to do is start putting your creative impulse into action. Do something now! Create your own creative route and stay true to your goals. Today, take the initial step and have a positive outlook.
 

Tim Moseley

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Gold silver up but down from daily highs on some profit taking

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Gold, silver up, but down from daily highs on some profit taking

Gold and silver prices are modestly higher but nearer the daily lows in midday U.S. trading Wednesday. Some profit-taking pressure from the shorter-term futures traders kicked in after both metals touched 13-month highs in the immediate aftermath of a tamer U.S. inflation report this morning. June gold was last up $4.20 at $2,023.20 and May silver is up $0.114 at $25.30.

The U.S. data point of the week saw Wednesday morning’s consumer price index report for March come in at up 5.0%, year-on-year, compared to market expectations for a rise of 5.1%. The CPI rose 6.0% in the February report. Today’s CPI report continues a downward trajectory on consumer inflation and falls into the camp of the U.S. monetary policy doves, who want to see the Federal Reserve back off on its policy tightening. U.S. Treasury yields initially dropped and the U.S. stock indexes rallied on the news. The U.S. dollar index sold off sharply. However, Treasury yields have up-ticked and the U.S. stock indexes have sold off as midday approaches. The rebound in bond yields after the CPI report helped to spur some profit taking in gold and silver. It appears the initial trader/investor euphoria over the tamer CPI report has quickly worn off. In fact, the core CPI reading actually up-ticked by 0.1%, to 5.6%, year-on-year, in the March report.

  Gold price hits session highs as U.S. CPI sees annual inflation rising 5%, down sharply from 2020 highs

The minutes of the last FOMC meeting are due out this afternoon.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index sharply lower. Nymex crude oil prices are up, hit a 2.5-month high and trading around $82.50 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.421%.

Technically, June gold futures bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the all-time high of $2,078.80, scored in March of 2022. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the April low of $1,965.90. First resistance is seen at the March high of $2,031.70 and then at the April high of $2,049.20. First support is seen at today’s low of $2,015.70 and then at $2,000.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.5



May silver futures bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a steep four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $27.50. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $23.50. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $25.825 and then at $26.00. Next support is seen at $25.00 and then at this week’s low of $24.775. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.5.

May N.Y. copper closed up 165 points at 403.60 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. The copper bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the March high of 417.45 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the March low of 382.20 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 405.45 cents and then at 407.15 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 396.30 cents and then at last week’s low of 392.60 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

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Jim Wyckoff

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

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Gold solidly down on profit taking rebound in USDX

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Gold solidly down on profit taking, rebound in USDX

Gold prices are sharply lower in midday U.S. trading Monday, on some profit-taking pressure from the shorter-term futures traders and as the U.S. dollar index is solidly up today, on a rebound after last week hitting a two-month low. Silver prices are just modestly down. Still, both metals are in firmly bullish technical postures to suggest more upside for prices in the near term. April gold was last down $22.70 at $1,989.20 and May silver is down $0.133 at $24.955.

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are a bit weaker near midday. It’s a calmer start to the trading week, following a three-day holiday weekend for most traders and investors. The U.S. Labor Department’s March jobs report issued Friday morning came in about as expected, showing a non-farm payrolls rise of 236,000 jobs versus a gain of 311,000 in the February report. Still, Friday’s jobs numbers fall into the camp of the U.S. monetary policy hawks, who want to see further interest rate increases from the Federal Reserve.

The U.S. data point of the week will be Wednesday morning’s consumer price index report for March, which is expected to show an annual rise of 5.1%, compared to a rise of 6.0% in the February report.

  Bank of America is looking for $2,100 gold price by Q2

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index sharply up. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly down and trading around $80.50 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.4%.

Technically, April gold futures prices hit a 12-month high last week. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in an uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the all-time high of $2,078.80, scored in March of 2022. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,900.00. First resistance is seen at $2,000.00 and then at today’s high of $2,006.60. First support is seen at $1,975.00 and then at $1,965.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0

May silver futures prices hit a 12-month high last week. The silver bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a steep uptrend on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $27.50. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $23.00. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $25.295 and then at $25.50. Next support is seen at $24.50 and then at $24.25. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0.

May N.Y. copper closed down 440 points at 397.15 cents today. Prices closed near the session low today. The copper bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but have faded recently. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the March high of 417.45 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the March low of 382.20 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 403.95 cents and then at 407.15 cents. First support is seen at last week’s low of 399.60 cents and then at 392.60 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

By

Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

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The Battle for Control: Why Governments Fear the Decentralized Nature of Bitcoin

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The Battle for Control: Why Governments Fear the Decentralized Nature of Bitcoin

Why is the government wary of Bitcoin? The simple answer to that question is "the loss of control!"

The government's most potent instrument for influencing the economy is controlling the money supply. The government wants total economic control because doing so would be politically advantageous. To make fresh money, the government borrows from banks. As a result, the government is increasing the amount of future debt that must be repaid to produce fiscal stimulus.

Thankfully, the government may depreciate the currency by reducing the debt's value. You get into trouble because you could want to hold onto the money as a store of value. Your savings will eventually lose value even if you have placed your funds in an interest-bearing account.

Governments are willing and ready to fight Bitcoin and other altcoins, not the blockchain technology that powers it. Several governments and banks have praised blockchain technology's workings, and they are keen to incorporate it into the system to move toward improving operational effectiveness. 

Governments worldwide are preparing to implement digital currencies (CBDC) to simplify the electronic transfer procedure. The government intends to use blockchain technology so that digital transactions are traceable and can be taxed because it records every transaction in the ledger. The caveat is the type of blockchain they will implement for their digital currencies. It is permissioned, so only central banks will see the transactions, not the public. 


Image source: 101 Blockchains

People's confidence was shaken by the tremendous financial crisis that the world was experiencing. Once the banking system fell, Bitcoin rose from the ashes, giving consumers a different way to control their money. Anybody with an internet connection may buy Bitcoin and safely save their money. Peer-to-peer technology powers the payment network. It is a decentralized coin that the government, and any third parties, cannot manipulate.

Fiat currencies credibility

Fiat refers to the traditional currency issued by the government. The government has declared that these currencies are valuable. People have understood that this pledge is meaningless because real assets do not back fiat currencies over time. Fiat money typically lacks both intrinsic value and utility value. It only has value because those who use it as an accounting unit or, in the case of currency, a means of exchange believe it has value. They believe businesses and other individuals will accept it for transactional purposes.

You will never be able to trade the money in for a can of beans or a bar of gold with the government. People only believe in fiat currencies because the government has the credit to issue them. To purchase either of those items, you must pay the seller of beans or gold in fiat money. 

Fiat currencies gained credibility through legal tender laws, central bank credibility, government backing, and the network effect. While a physical commodity does not support fiat currencies, it is backed by the government's ability to enforce legal tender laws and collect taxes, creating demand for the money. As long as people believe that the government will continue to back the currency and maintain its value, fiat currencies will continue to be accepted as a means of exchange.

The essence of control

Fiat money is totally under government control. They give central banks the authority to create or destroy money through monetary policy to affect the economy. The government also sets the rules for how these currencies may be moved so they can be traced and taxed. It makes it evident who stands to gain from this movement and aids in investigating illicit activity.

Control is necessary to ensure the safety and security of individuals and institutions. The government can set rules and regulations to prevent fraudulent or illegal activities, such as money laundering, and to protect consumers from financial scams or predatory lending practices. It also helps to prevent excessive speculation or manipulation of financial markets.

The government can regulate the money supply and influence economic activity by controlling the currency. By adjusting interest rates and using other monetary policy tools, central banks can help to stabilize inflation, support economic growth, and mitigate economic downturns. Central Banks like the Fed aim to protect the banks, giving them enormous powers to control the citizens. Money is power, and whoever controls the money controls power. This is exactly what the government wants.

How is Bitcoin valuable?

Long before Satoshi published his white paper on the Cryptography Mailing List in 2008, Bitcoin's history had already begun. Cryptographers first fought the battle for privacy and freedom in the digital era, then the Cypherpunks took up the cause, and now the Bitcoiners are carrying on the struggle.

Without question, Satoshi was brilliant, but he didn't create something from nothing. Instead, Satoshi shrewdly utilized existing technologies to produce the revolutionary new currency, Bitcoin. Note that because Satoshi Nakamoto chose to stay incognito, speculation has it that Satoshi could be a group rather than a single person.

Users of Bitcoin can escape the current financial system. Bitcoins don't actually exist in the physical world. They are produced by "miners" in cyberspace. Bitcoins are created by solving challenging algorithms that operate as a kind of global transaction verification rather than being written on paper or carved on metal.

This digital money (more accurately, cryptocurrency) can only be held digitally and transferred between buyers and sellers without an intermediary and is also awarded to miners when they correctly solve a block. The same idea applies to airline reward points on a more compact scale. The points may be used to pay for travel-related expenses like hotel and aircraft tickets. All of them utilize airline miles as virtual money.

The entire financial system's framework will collapse if Bitcoin is broadly embraced. This was a fantastic solution in light of the instances when the financial sector became corrupt. 

In a research paper from Galaxy Digital, the energy used by the Bitcoin network was quantified and compared to that of other industries, such as the banking industry. It was discovered that while the banking sector uses 263.72 TWh annually, Bitcoin uses just 113.89 TWh.

By analyzing some of Bitcoin's distinctive qualities and how they relate to and affect its energy consumption, the research provided context for Bitcoin's energy usage. Regrettably, such important information won't be permitted to appear in the mainstream media due to the world powers' campaign against Bitcoin.

Why do governments fear Bitcoin?

  • Unbeatable

When Bitcoin first emerged, many who opposed it painted it as a hoax. But Bitcoin is still there and in the news fourteen years later. There is always a long way to go before most people use Bitcoin. More businesses and services are embracing Bitcoin daily, making it a legitimate payment option. Anybody wishing for cryptocurrency to disappear will not get their dream since it is here to stay.

The loss of control presented by Bitcoin is a crucial issue that worries governments and financial institutions. They still need to devise a mechanism to tax Bitcoin or any other cryptocurrency. The government cannot monitor the transactions or the revenue generated by them. You can see why the government discourages the idea, given that taxation is the primary source of governmental income.

The lack of a centralized authority and blockchain technology are the two defining characteristics of Bitcoin that give it power and acceptance. It establishes a secure network where users can remain pseudonymous. Yet when considered from the government's standpoint, this is a field it cannot regulate or meddle in. A lack of regulation for the government entails a lack of control and revenue. 

Additionally, because Bitcoin is a peer-to-peer system, there is no need for a central clearing house or authority to oversee the transfers. What earnings are being produced, who is selling, and who is buying the Bitcoins remain entirely hidden from the sources, which is something the government hates so much.

  • Provides a lifeline

Even the most essential products and services are sometimes unavailable to many in nations like Venezuela, which has suffered hyperinflation. Reports demonstrate how Venezuelans are surviving hyperinflation with the help of Bitcoin. They use this cryptocurrency to order internationally couriered items online. This nation illustrates how the people have been let down by the government and conventional banking institutions. Yet, the government has attempted to crack down on the Bitcoin miners and traders rather than finding a solution to the financial crisis.

  • Community Control and Crime Concerns

The two-headed monster of government hostility to cryptocurrency is because it continues to remain out of their total control. Yet, it also suggests that they sincerely worry about protecting the rights of residents and those looking to invest in risky assets.

Having said that, it is crucial to remember that not all government worries are unwarranted. It was premised on the idea that financial transactions were anonymous, and thus criminal activity was inevitable. Crimes like drug trafficking, terrorism, money laundering, and tax evasion may worsen with such a system. These may harm the rest of society. 

However, we must understand how Bitcoin can address the problems that traditional systems have caused, putting aside the likelihood of a wide variety of illegal acts that have garnered the headlines and painted them negatively. Recessions and unemployment have repeatedly been triggered by the central bank changing the money supply. The welfare of individuals is at risk because the global financial system thrives on avarice and corruption.

It's okay to try your luck with Bitcoin; remember that you're entrusting a very sophisticated system with your money. You may need to be more thoroughly knowledgeable about this industry; because you are interacting with individuals you don't know and entering a situation where you have few legal options.

The fight against Bitcoin requires large-scale coordination among nations 

Bitcoin's growth has been a concern for various governments, including the United States. The US government is projected to run a $1.4 trillion deficit in 2023. Even if the government shuts down the entire military and eliminates the Department of Defense's projected $800 billion budget, the budget would still be projected to operate in the red for 2023.

This indicates that the U.S. government's resources to fight against Bitcoin are limited. Still, it is clear that the government is targeting cryptocurrency to expand the reach of its financial surveillance. Approximately 86% of central banks are actively exploring the development of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs). This development could threaten the growth of cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin.

Wall Street's push to open up access to Bitcoin investment is meeting resistance from a bipartisan group of lawmakers and regulators in Washington, which might also hinder the growth of Bitcoin. Some years ago, China, another country that has shown concern about the growth of Bitcoin, attempted to crack down on Bitcoin miners who effectively power the digital coins' accounting system by forcing its own banks to stop facilitating crypto use. If China can’t stop it, what do you think the countries that still practice freedom are going to do?

While the U.S. government's resources might be limited to fight against Bitcoin, the government might expand its arsenal through multilateral relations in targeting cryptocurrency to broaden the reach of its financial surveillance. 

As Bitcoin is internationalized, effective regulation would require the cooperation and approval of practically every nation-state. Still, it might be challenging to see countries focusing on Bitcoin in unison; even though the major world powers such as the United States and China have a bloc-like effect, there has been more coordination, often led by the U.S. government.

Extensive cooperation is needed to shut down the network effectively; otherwise, users will successfully conduct transactions and maintain the Bitcoin network in other countries. A gradual, nation-by-nation prohibition might harm total acceptance. 

At its most extreme, a very improbable state-led ban in the United States could prevent Bitcoin from accessing American-led financial institutions and markets with almost all global reach. However, a "global ban" or "government crackdown" will not be possible as Bitcoin can be used for transactional purposes across international borders.

The libertarian view

The allure of Bitcoin extends beyond its autonomy and financial stability. Digital money appeals to libertarians as well since they favor private property rights and minimal government involvement. Libertarians see Bitcoin as a method to avoid conventional financial institutions, which they believe are governed by governments and susceptible to heavy regulation. Bitcoin provides a decentralized financial system free from governmental control and inflationary monetary policies.

Because Bitcoin transactions are safe and transparent, they are consistent with libertarian values such as individual freedom and privacy. Bitcoin transactions cannot be controlled or changed thanks to permissionless blockchain technology, offering an unmatched level of security compared to conventional banking systems.

Bitcoin stands for control over one's financial future and the shielding of assets from governmental meddling for libertarians and those who share their views. Even if the appeal to libertarians may appear specialized, it is a sign that digital currencies can alter the financial landscape. It's conceivable that cryptocurrencies will become more widely accepted and used for various purposes as more people become aware of their benefits.

The bottom line 

Governments are wary of Bitcoin for several reasons, including its lack of central control, illicit activity use, consumer protection, volatility, and potential threat to national currencies. While some governments have taken steps to regulate Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, others have banned them altogether. As Bitcoin continues to gain mainstream acceptance, it will be interesting to see different approaches to how governments respond to this new form of currency.

It's important to note that while governments are wary of Bitcoin, they also recognize the potential benefits of blockchain technology, which underlies Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Blockchain technology can potentially revolutionize various industries, including finance, healthcare, and logistics. The relationship between governments and cryptocurrencies is complex and evolving, and it will be interesting to see how it develops in the coming years.

 

 

 

About: Prince Ibenne. (Nigeria) Rapid and sustainable human growth is my passion, and getting a life-changing opportunity into the hands of people is my calling. Empowering entrepreneurs provides me with enormous gratification. Find me at my Markethive Profile Page | My Twitter Account | and my LinkedIn Profile.

 

 

 

 

Tim Moseley

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GoldSilver: The critical indicator every silver trader is watching

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Gold/Silver: The critical indicator every silver trader is watching

Happy Easter to all of you, and with Good Friday here, the markets enjoy an early close after the release of the monthly Nonfarm payroll report. The number narrowly beat expectations showing an increase of 236,000 jobs, and the initial reaction gave a favorable boost to the U.S. Dollar and Treasury Yields. Unfortunately, the Precious Metals markets are closed today, leaving Sunday night as a possible "volatility event" as the markets try to price what a stronger report will mean for the Fed at their next meeting. Looking back from the lows in March, Gold has rallied $200 and Silver over $5, leaving both markets susceptible to a correction. For those currently long, we will continue to lift protective stop losses and use options to add to positions while concentrating on "undervalued" metals such as Copper and Platinum.

Daily May Silver Chart

The technical backdrop shows Silver extending the "Bull flag pattern" we identified several weeks back while continuing to achieve new swing highs and breaking through the consolidation zone seen from December through February. We remain cautiously optimistic as most technical indicators show the market substantially "overbought," as seen through the slow stochastic indicator. The eight-day exponential moving average (EMA) has worked exceptionally well in helping Silver traders from a risk management standpoint and looking to exit their positions on the first close below. Traders will then wait to see if an extended selloff occurs by analyzing if a crossover occurs with the eight-day EMA crossing below the thirty-four-day EMA. If that event happens, we could be setting up for a multi-week correction.

To further help you develop a trading plan, I went back through 20 years of my trading strategies to create a Free New "5-Step Technical Analysis Guide to Gold that can easily apply to Silver." The guide will provide you with all the Technical analysis steps to create an actionable plan used as a foundation for entering and exiting the market. You can request yours here: 5-Step Technical Analysis Guide to Silver.

Daily June Gold Chart

The technical backdrop in Gold shows a different picture from Silver as the market successfully "broke out" from the "Bull Flag" pattern we identified in last week's article. However, without a continuation above $2050, traders should use any close below $2000 as the first warning sign that a correction could be brewing. A critical level we are watching is the March 21st downward spike low to 1965.9, now the first significant support. A break below 1965.9 will begin signaling a near-term failure. Therefore, we would be only cautiously Bullish and reevaluating upon such a move. For those working closely with us, most of you are working stops below the $1955 level on a "Good till Cancelled" basis.

Having the flexibility to enter and exit the market quickly makes it essential for Precious Metals investors to have a futures trading account alongside their core Physical Precious Metals holdings. If you are interested in speculating on the rise and fall of the price of Precious Metals on a shorter-term basis, such as two weeks or two months, or If you have never traded futures or commodities, I just completed a new educational guide that answers all your questions on transferring your current investing skills into trading "real assets," such as the 1000 oz Silver futures contract. You can request yours here: Trade Metals, Transition your Experience Book.

By

Phillip Streible

Contributing to kitco.com

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

The Artist that came out of the Winter