Fed to err on the side of too many rate hikes – Why is gold at 1800?

Fed to err on the side of too many rate hikes – Why is gold at $1,800?

Markets are anticipating the Federal Reserve to err on the side of tightening, with Chair Jerome Powell admitting this week that the real mistake would be failing to get inflation under control.

Recession fears and the hawkish Federal Reserve triggered bouts of volatility this year – the S&P 500 had its worst half of the year since 1970, while Bitcoin saw its largest quarterly drop in more than a decade. For gold, however, it has been steady sailing, with the precious metal down just 1% since the start of the year.

Analysts believe the precious metal has done a "spectacular job" of storing value. But many are neutral on the precious metal until more U.S. data show inflation peaking and growth slowing.

The headline keeping many investors cautious this week was Powell stating that the U.S. central bank could take things too far and potentially risk a recession for price stability.

"Is there a risk we will go too far? Certainly, there is a risk. But it's not the biggest risk to the economy. The bigger mistake to make would be to fail to restore price stability," Powell said during a policy panel at the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal.

At the time of writing, August Comex gold futures were trading at $1,808.50, roughtly unchanged on the day.

Making gold harder to read were many investors rebalancing their portfolios for the second half of the year in light of rising recession calls, OANDA senior market analyst Edward Moya told Kitco News.

"There are some concerning calls from others that gold could be vulnerable to some further selling pressure here. That is if the dollar remains fairly supported," OANDA senior market analyst Edward Moya told Kitco News. "It is tough to assess the market's true views. We are seeing significant repositioning. But the outlook for gold should still be fairly sideways. Next week, there will be a lot of focus on whether or not we see any signs that Fed members are becoming more optimistic that inflation is cooling."

There are already signs that the slowdown is hitting the economy a little faster than many anticipated, Moya added.

"We really need to see data showing that inflation peak is in place. We are in a choppy period because that question won't be answered by one data point. We need to see a few reports. And you need to hear from corporate America, and right now, that is not the case," he said.

Since touching $2,000 back in March, gold has been stuck in the "sell the rallies" type of trading, Walsh Trading co-director Sean Lusk told Kitco News.

"The problem for gold is all the rallies are being sold because of how hawkish the Fed is. There is no love here for the precious metal when the economic outlook is so uncertain. Plus, there are different takes on whether inflation is peaking or not," Lusk said.

In this environment, gold and silver won't see a bounce for another couple of weeks. This is why Lusk is waiting for a better seasonal time frame when more physical gold is bought.

PIC

Gold prices remain down but making a move back to $1,800 as ISM manufacturing PMI falls to 53

"Mid-to-late July is where we could get some movement to the upside. During the second half of the summer and into the Labor Day weekend is when demand for physical increases," he noted.

For now, there is a risk that gold could tumble to the $1,780 suport level. If that fails, the precious metal is at risk of falling to $1,730 an ounce. This is the price floor where Lusk expects to see a move higher. "The $1,782 level is May's low. If we blow through that, the next target is $1,760 — the pre-Christmas low and then it is $1,730. That could be where we go until we see a bounce," he said.

Moya is watching the $1,785 an ounce level, citing significant support around that range. "If it gets uglier for gold over the next week of trade, it should have major support at $1,785, and that could hold as the dollar peak might be in place," he said.

Next week's data:

Tuesday: U.S. factory orders

Wednesday: U.S. ISM non-manufacturing PMI

Thursday: U.S. ADP nonfarm employment, jobless claims

Friday: U.S. nonfarm payrolls

By Anna Golubova

For Kitco News

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

Tim Moseley

Market Purge Continues As Crypto Industry Strives For Maturity Perfect Timing For Markethive

Market Purge Continues As Crypto Industry Strives For Maturity. Perfect Timing For Markethive

Also, Updates On New Integrations And The Markethive Wallet

As the bear market continues wth its crypto-cleanse and traders bemoan the adverse price action, some industry leaders opine these conditions will eradicate bad actors and create more significant opportunities for upcoming projects and future participants. Several leading crypto analysts and engineers embrace the idea that this is the time to engage in moves leading to the loftiest gains when the bull cycle returns. 

Markethive stands firm with these sentiments and continues to build its next-generation entrepreneurial platform and be ready for the market-cleansed bull run. Those on the Markethive journey may be aware that new features are being integrated into the newsfeed in preparation for the five-channel dashboard housing various feeds. 

The new features and upload capabilities now active on the platform include; 

Emojis

Emojis include a range of bees, appropriate for the Hive and a fantastic way to make the workplace and your social interactions fun. A poll conducted by Appboy found that people enjoy emojis in general. More than 64% like or love emojis, compared to only 6% dislike them. 

Polling

Another sought-after feature by many entrepreneurs is now live on the Markethive platform. This is a great way to gauge reactions, opinions, and information from the community at large. Perhaps you could do a poll to see how the Markethive community like the new emoji integration. 

Images and Gifs

We now have a new way to upload images and gifs either directly from any website or personal computer. Simply copy the image from the origin and paste it to the desired location in Markethive, or paste in the image address. With gifs, paste the image address unless you are copying from your files with your device. This is a requirement for the animation to work.  

Videos

Now you can upload videos directly from your device into Markethive as part of the Markethive video system. This is the inception of the Markethive Video Channel that will be integrated into the new dashboard, where you can post your video from Markethive directly to many other media platforms by way of a permalink. 

You can also upload videos from YouTube, Vimeo, Rumble, and Bitchute, which will play directly on the newsfeed. This negates being taken away from the Markethive site.  

Significant upgrades have also been installed for the internal Markethive Messaging interface, Newsfeed, and comments system. 

 

And It’s Just The Beginning

This is just the beginning of the dynamic transformation and direction Markethive is moving towards. The innovative five-channel dashboard integration will consist of five newsfeeds—the general newsfeed, the blog, the video channel, curation, and surveys.

It will significantly streamline your activities and business facilitation and will include a search engine so you can build your personal algorithms. This will save time and effort by eliminating what you don’t want to see in your newsfeeds, be more intuitive, and enhance the user experience. 

 

The Markethive Wallet

CEO of Markethive, Thomas Prendergast, and the team of engineers have made substantial headway with the wallet. It is all but done, and the release is imminent. It’s not a simple wallet that just transfers coins. It is a complete portfolio and accounts of all your transactions, payments, and affairs, including your ILPs. The wallet comprises fourteen major foundational processes and is your internal wallet on the Markethive database. 

An itemized account on all elements of the wallet is as follows;

1 Hivecoin wallet (done) for sending and receiving coin (initially for upgrades only) ✅

2 The New Vault (done) with Feed the Vault and Auto fund thresholds and deposits tracking control panel  including the following:
   a. Subscriptions ✅
   b. Payment History ✅
   c. Payment Methods ✅

3 Markethive Credits (done) Markethive Credits are used to pay for Markethive services.✅ 
   A Markethive credit is a credit token valued at $1 USD per token and can be purchased with a credit card, crypto, (and Hivecoin after we are on the exchanges)

4 ILP notes control panel (this is the last function being built)

5 Hivecoin price chart scale (will be integrated when the coin is listed)

6 Subscriptions Control (done) ✅

7 Payment History (done) ✅

8 Payment Methods (done) ✅

9 Crypto Merchant Account (done) (turnkey for upgrade members use also) ✅

10 Feed The Vault (done) ✅

11 Vault Deposit History (done) ✅

12 Vault Threshold (done) ✅

13 New Staking (done). ✅
    Markethive Credits will receive staking. Hivecoin will no longer be staked. 

14 Coin Clip History (done) ✅
 

The many facets of the Wallet are completed except the ILP platform, which is nearing completion. Once these facets are completed, they all need to be designed into the wallet's interface. The Merchant Account, the Vault Interface, and Markethive Credits components are already completed. 

As we approach the wallet release, the Coin Drop incentive for people joining Markethive will be reduced from 500 HVC to 50 HVC, and new Entrepreneur One accounts will no longer be available. Simultaneously, we will release our Premium upgrades at a reduced cost, enabling members to take advantage of the many benefits and services Markethive offers.  

As stated by Thomas Prendergast,

“After the release of the wallet, we will launch a new offshore company to begin building our own exchange. We will also have several campaigns engaged in getting listed on as many exchanges as we can as quickly as we can.”

 

The Current Crypto Landscape

Although we are deeply immersed in a bear market, Markethive continues to progress in its development. As the entrepreneurial culture is knitted into the fabric of Markethive, its community sees the bigger picture and is aligned with the sentiments of the industry experts.

According to experts, crypto winters are actually good for Bitcoin; For example, pivotal projects like the Lightning Network, a major Bitcoin-related project enabling cheaper, faster Bitcoin transactions, were developed during bear markets. The initial concept of the Lightning Network was formulated during the bear market of 2015. 

Also, people in the industry continue to reiterate that bear markets are actually healthy for the crypto industry, as they remove speculators and scams while providing space to build genuine and excellent products and services.

In recent weeks, a wave of panic has swept through the crypto community, with BTC miners' selling activity rising to seven-month highs as mining profitability dropped to levels last seen in October 2020. 

The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index  posted that it recently fell to 7, indicating 'extreme fear,' the lowest number since the pre-pandemic Q3 2019. The self-updating image below shows a more positive rating at the time of writing, although it is still in the extreme fear category. But according to some industry experts, the recent events in the industry do not look as bad as they first appear and the bear market is not to be feared. 

 

Latest Crypto Fear & Greed Index

 

 

Anthony Pompliano, in a recent interview with Fox News, explained that Bitcoin’s value and price are diverging and that weak hands are selling to strong hands. 

“What we’re watching right now is the transfer from weak, short-term oriented people with weak hands into the long-term oriented, strong hands.”

Trezor Bitcoin analyst Josef Tětek told Cointelegraph,

“Bear markets are good for Bitcoin. Builders face fewer distractions, and the fake ‘project founders’ that were only looking for a quick VC funding and naive retail exit liquidity disappear as quickly as they previously appeared. Real builders rejoice when all the bullshit gets washed out.”

 

Perfect Timing For Markethive

So the timing couldn’t be better for Markethive to distinguish itself and gain prominence in the crypto market as the blockchain-driven multi-media network pioneer. The purpose of Markethive is to deliver a broadcasting platform, marketing systems, and communication interface, all based on Biblical principles where truth, freedom, and liberty are the foundation and intrinsic to the entrepreneur. 

Markethive and its community stand by these principles and are inherently guided by Divine Providence, where everything takes shape in God’s timing, not ours. Markethive is in every country in the world and ready to lift millions of people into an environment of freedom of speech and information, financial sovereignty, and well-being. We are responsible for creating a massive army for the Lord and a foundation for the last days; The final harvest.  

We live in uncertain times, prophesied as the end times, with catastrophic events impacting society on every level. With the global economy in free fall, the need for a different approach is here, and these events are forcing the crypto industry to grow and mature. Markethive is here to pave the way as one of the new innovative technologies that will rise in the wake of this bear market.

 Come to our Sunday meetings at 10 am MST as we approach massive major upgrades and the wallet launch. See and hear explanations, ask questions, and witness the ever-evolving technology and concepts of Markethive. The link to the meeting room is located in the Markethive Calendar. 

 

 

 

 

Tim Moseley

Microsoft enters agreement to respect Activision Blizzard unionization

Microsoft enters an agreement to respect Activision Blizzard's unionization

By staff writer, The Washington Post covering video games

 

Microsoft enters agreement to respect Activision Blizzard unionization

 

Microsoft said Monday it would respect the rights of Activision Blizzard workers to join a union

They would enter into a so-called labor neutrality agreement with major media union Communications Workers of America, which has been helping video game workers organize. If Microsoft’s acquisition of Activision Blizzard is approved, the new labor agreement will take effect for the video game giant 60 days after the deal is finalized.

Activision Blizzard announced Friday it was entering bargaining negotiations with a group of Raven Software quality assurance testers. Those testers have spent months demanding recognition of their union, the Game Workers Alliance, which is supported by the CWA.

The labor neutrality agreement “means that we respect the right of our employees to make informed decisions on their own,” said Microsoft president Brad Smith in an interview with The Washington Post. "It means that we don’t try to put a thumb on the scale to influence or pressure them. We give people the opportunity to exercise their right to choose by voting ... it’s something that’s respectful of everyone, more amicable, and avoids business disruption.”

The agreement puts into writing what Microsoft has stated in the past. In March, Microsoft told The Post it wouldn’t stand in the way if Activision Blizzard recognized a union. In May, Xbox head Phil Spencer told employees in an internal all-hands that he would recognize Raven Software’s newly formed union, according to a Kotaku report. Unlike those previous statements, this agreement is legally binding, according to the CWA and Microsoft.

“[The agreement] covers the large majority of workers at Activision Blizzard,” Smith said. “There are certain categories that are excluded under the National Labor Relations Act — managers, people who have confidential positions, that kind of thing. But really broadly speaking, it applies to the employees of Activision Blizzard as a whole.”

The deal between Microsoft and the CWA says employees should easily exercise their right to communicate with other employees and other union representatives about organizing, have a streamlined process for choosing to join a union, and keep their decision private if they wish. Finally, the agreement states that if the CWA and Microsoft disagree, they will work together to reach a consensus and failing that, turn to an arbitration process.

“The arbitration process will ensure that the rights that employees have under the National Labor Relations Act are upheld, so we’re not trying to go off and do something that is separate from the rights that people have,” Smith said. “We then have a third party that can make a decision and will abide by it.”

If other Microsoft employees unionize, the CWA said it intends to use this agreement to help advocate for those employees, too.

“We will talk about how we go about organizing Microsoft employees if that happens,” CWA President Christopher Shelton said. “And I’m not saying that it’s not happening as we speak, but we don’t announce organizing projects.”

Microsoft’s agreement comes a week after it announced a new strategy for dealing with unions. The company posted new “principles for employee organizing” on June 2, which stated, “We recognize that there may be times when some employees in some countries may wish to form or join a union.”

Shelton said the discussions started after Microsoft announced in January it would buy Activision Blizzard for a historic $68.7 billion, a move that shocked organizing workers. The deal is slated to close by June 2023.

"We looked at it and said, ‘Employees have to have a voice, or they’ll get run over by these big companies deciding that they’ll come together,’” Shelton said. “We came up with this agreement, and we’ve been working on it for quite a while now. It hasn’t been all that easy. But it hasn’t been all that hard either, because Microsoft really meant what they said in their principles, and I believe that.”

Smith said Activision Blizzard CEO Bobby Kotick and his company were not consulted on the terms of the agreement, although the company was aware that Microsoft and the CWA were holding discussions.

“We have to be extremely careful under the law to avoid what’s called gun-jumping,” Smith said, referring to unlawful activities from a company still awaiting regulatory approval. “We were not required to [talk to Activision Blizzard] under the merger agreement, and we did not seek their approval to enter into the agreement.”

Regarding his company’s decision to engage with the CWA and the union at Raven, Activision Blizzard CEO Bobby Kotick said in a statement to The Post: “We decided to take this important step forward with our 27 represented employees and CWA to explore their ideas and insights for how we might better serve our employees, players and other stakeholders. We look forward to collaborating with CWA as we create the industry’s most welcoming, inclusive workplace.”

Microsoft’s announcement comes amid a landscape of growing video game unions and ongoing unionization efforts at companies like Starbucks and Apple.

Video game companies in North America never successfully unionized until last December, when a union at indie developer Vodeo Games was recognized by management. It was followed by Raven Software winning a union election on May 23. On June 6, 16 quality assurance testers at Keywords Studios, which is working on “Dragon Age: Dreadwolf” for the Electronic Arts-owned BioWare, formed Canada’s first video game union. Electronic Arts spokesperson Lacey Haines said in a statement, "While the unionization of Keywords Studios employees in Edmonton does not involve BioWare employees, we want to be clear that we at EA respect the process and the right of workers to choose.”

Like the video game industry, major tech companies have been slow to organize, which raises the question of why this movement is unfolding now. Smith said the agreement with the CWA was not an attempt by Microsoft to present the Activision Blizzard merger on more favorable terms to antitrust regulators, with whom the company has had multiple tussles, including a 1998 antitrust case for which Bill Gates testified before Congress. Microsoft was more inspired by its organized employees in Europe and South Korea, he said.

“We haven’t had the specific unionization efforts directly in the U.S. that some others have but we have a deep respect for the role of unions in a democracy,” Smith said. “Look at what organized labor has done for the rights of people in this country for 150 years. It’s part of the success of this country. And if there’s an opportunity for us to connect with that in a new way, I think it’s good for everybody.”

Labor professors agreed the deal between Microsoft and the CWA was historically groundbreaking.

“In a way, [Microsoft’s deal with the CWA] is a recognition that the mood is changing,” said Margaret O’Mara, a tech and politics professor at the University of Washington. “The political winds are changing. There has been more public conversation and activism, particularly since the beginning of the pandemic, around unionization. It’s this company that has presented itself as the grown-up in the room, presenting itself as a good corporate citizen, being proactive about regulation and working with governments.”

Wilma Liebman, former chairman of the National Labor Relations Board under former president Barack Obama, said one motivation for the deal with the CWA could be the future approval of its acquisition of Activision Blizzard.

“I’m sure some, if not a key part, of the motivation for Microsoft entering into this agreement, is to mitigate opposition to the merger with Activision,” Liebman said. "Indeed, the CWA expressly says it now approves the merger. Undoubtedly, Microsoft believes that its ‘softer’ stance on unionization may reap a benefit in the antitrust investigation, particularly in the Biden administration.”

 

 


New Opportunities Are Emerging For Citizens of The World.

Freedom and democracy may appear to be struggling to stay alive in America, but there may be a knock-out punch ready to be released. The evolution of the blockchain-enabled metaverse is going to enable the 'Citizens of the World' to gain their own Freedom by democratizing power and creating a new world with new rules, new players, and new opportunities. For 99.99% of us, the metaverse will improve our real-world lives through the democratization of power and opportunity.

Along with the major long-term trend of society towards decentralization and smaller-scale organizations, there are new opportunities developing to help 'Preparers' in the cryptocurrency sector. Businesses are beginning to issue their own Crypto Coins that can be traded on Cryptocoin Exchanges.

Markethive.com for example will be releasing its HiveCoin (HIV) in the coming weeks. It has tremendous upside potential that is outlined in a Video by Founder Tom Prendergast, "Entrepreneur Advantage…".

Not only that, if you go to their website and register as a FREE Member, you will be given 500 HiveCoins for "FREE" along with access to several Earning Opportunities and online tools to increase your HiveCoin balance.

Be sure to check it out today – Markethive.com

Markethive

Tim Moseley

Other potential outcomes from quantitative tightening by the Federal Reserve

Other potential outcomes from quantitative tightening by the Federal Reserve

The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy composed of aggressive rate hikes in tandem with a balance sheet reduction is intended to achieve price stability through lower inflation. The Federal Reserve is assuming that it can effectively reduce inflation without creating a recession. While this is one possible outcome, at best achieving this goal will be exceedingly difficult, and at worst impossible to accomplish.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has had a profound impact on commodity prices, supply chains, inflation, and a steep contraction of global growth. The impact of Russia’s war is that the Federal Reserve can only impact core inflation resulting in no major real reduction of inflation and an economic contraction. Therefore, a key risk to the global economy is the possibility that inflation will remain persistent and elevated together with contracting economic growth, the definition of stagflation.

Currently, inflation globally continues to run exceedingly hot. Today the European Union reported that inflation hit a new record in June. Headline inflation in Europe came in at 8.6% YoY exceeding the inflation level of the United States which is at 8.3% (CPI reading for May). Inflation in advanced economies is currently at its highest levels recorded during the last 40 years.

Global growth rebounded to 5.7% in 2021, however majority of the global growth that occurred in 2020 and 2021 was supported by global fiscal and monetary policy accommodation. Because this accommodation has ended economic growth is expected to contract to 2.9% in 2022. More alarming is the high probability that global growth will continue to contract with little change in 2023.

Today the Brookings institution released an in-depth study about how “Today’s global economy is eerily similar to the 1970s,”. This study acknowledged that “the global economy is in the midst of a sudden slowdown accompanied by a steep run-up in global inflation to multidecade highs. These developments raise concerns about stagflation—the coincidence of weak growth and elevated inflation—similar to what the world suffered in the 1970s.”

This study sites that the current supply shocks occurred after the prolonged monetary policy accommodation led to pent-up demand in conjunction with the recent global supply shock in food and energy costs due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. According to the study the global economy faces challenges that are similar to the oil shocks that occurred in 1973 and 1979-80. The study concludes that just as in the 1970s the global economy could be thrust into a period of stagflation.

There are multiple possible outcomes from global central banks and the Federal Reserve’s monetary tightening. Their intended goal is to successfully reduce inflation and soft economic landing simultaneously. While this is the desired outcome, it will be the most challenging possible outcome to achieve. There is a real risk that their actions will lead to persistent and high inflation combined with economic stagnation.

If the global economy moves into a period of stagflation this will certainly create strong bullish undertones for gold prices. This can be seen in today’s price action in gold. Gold futures traded to a low last night of $1783.40 and is currently fixed at $1812.12 indicating a dynamic pivot and possible key reversal. We could be witnessing market participants focusing on the real possibility that the monetary policy of central banks globally will lead to stagflation rather than their intended goal of lowering inflation.

By Gary Wagner

Contributing to kitco.com

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

 

 

Tim Moseley

How the Militant Left Uses Fear

How the Militant Left Uses Fear

Christopher J. Farrell is the Director of Investigations and Research at Judicial Watch and a former U.S. Army Counterintelligence Officer.

 

How the Militant Left Uses Fear

 

A technique the Left uses to increase control through public anxiety is to “set multiple fires along the ridgeline.” The public notices that the flames are spreading. Which fire does one run to first? What must be sacrificed and allowed to burn?

Christopher J. Farrell — 30.06.22

 

“Paranoia strikes deep. Into your life it will creep. It starts when you’re always afraid.
Step out of line, the men come and take you away.” 

—“For What It’s Worth,” Steven Stills, Buffalo Springfield, 1966

 

The objective of the militant political Left

Whether in Hungary, at the European Union (EU), or in the United States—is to keep the public in a state of perpetual, acute, neurotic anxiety. They employ this form of psychological conditioning as a means of control. In the last century, socialists—National Socialists but particularly Communists—specialized in the technique to impose totalitarian control over whole societies.

Their goal is to manipulate the population into a series of fear-based decisions that disconnect people from their traditions, history, and values—and from each other. Separation from reality, inducing neurotic behavior, and developing disordered environments—while simultaneously extinguishing individual independent thought and behavior—work together to create ‘learned helplessness,’ leaving a vacuum for government to step in and ‘save the day.’

This type of strategic psychological combat, aimed at directing and swaying public attitudes, is not new, nor is it merely the product of the last 100 years. Sun Tzu also stressed the importance of destroying the enemy’s will to fight in his 5th-century BC writings on military affairs. Lenin’s 1920 “Conditions for Admission to the Communist International” discusses this technique as “demoralization”—the far-stronger German term is Zersetzung—meaning break-up, decomposition, and disintegration. In the late 1920s, the German communist party had specific operational detachments, referred to as Apparat, specifically for Zersetzung and Terror, working together in a powerful combination. The German communist cells took orders from Moscow, agitated for class warfare, deconstructed society for political advantage, and subverted the authority of the Weimar constitution. You are the modern-day target for this exact same treatment.

The mind has always been one of the most important battlegrounds—this is especially seen in Lenin’s dogmatic interpretation of Marxism. Lenin stresses throughout his writing that there can only be one right belief and that any dissent is a threat meriting terrorism at home and aggression abroad. This ideology has given and continues to give, the militant Left license to deploy its full arsenal of techniques to destroy its opposition. The Left wants you to give up and comply.

As disconnection and dependence contribute to the breakdown of family, community, and national identity, the general population is to be driven into the arms of an all-knowing, all-providing, homogenizing global society. Global citizens will find rest, comfort, and direction through compliance and in their ruling parties.

Balázs Orbán, political director to Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, details a compelling case for how the EU seeks to impose and enforce cultural structures, as well as moral and legal norms, across all of Europe without dialogue or debate. He discusses the phenomenon of “universalist thinking” demanding fetish compliance, in the context of the EU operating as a 21st-century empire, in the Winter 2021 edition of The European Conservative. The elite rule and all subjects must comply. Dissent is often punished. Disagreement is barely tolerated and frequently sanctioned economically. The essence of sovereignty—representative government—is dismissed as a quaint relic inconsistent with the rigid orthodoxies of Leftist ideology.

As Balázs Orbán points out, “only 8% of the EU’s senior officials come from Central and Eastern European states, though those states make up 40% and 20% of the EU’s population, respectively.” When the EU leadership criticizes and sanctions Hungary for wanting to enforce (Schengen) border security or for affirming the God-given right of Hungarian parents to decide what their children are taught in school, then something is very wrong. Political intimidation and economic coercion are the tools of fear leveraged against a nation in an international campaign to compel universal compliance.

The Left seeks to destroy and reshape national consciousness so that life is reduced to an obsessive list of things that are either ‘forbidden’ or ‘mandatory’—and are enforced by either subsidized or punitive state control.

Furthermore, eager compliance with state diktats is encouraged and rewarded with privilege and status. Virtue posturing and social demonstrations promoting state-sponsored group-think are ironically promoted as being bestowed with a keen awareness meriting the now-tired trope ‘Woke.’ In the United States, Hollywood stars posture while American cities burn and 2 million illegal aliens cross the southern border. Citizens are reduced from being the sovereign authority to a state resource that funds their own destruction. 

Militant Leftist attacks—both ideological and physical—are launched against history and facts. Traditions and foundations are besieged and undermined. Most recently in the United States, that effort has manifested in the so-called ‘1619 Project,’ which seeks to rewrite America’s founding and everything that comes from it, as based on slavery and racism. It is not merely a social commentary—it is an attempt to destroy our Constitution.

Beyond the ideological and physical attacks, society is also subjected to political and social group psychoanalysis that, in a perverted way, allows for the mass production of complexes and traumas. The counterfactual and increasingly hysterical claims of America’s ‘systemic racism’ is an example of the tactic. Again, the American public is attacked with the goal of inculcating feelings of error, guilt, shame, and fear, as well as desires (by some) for repentance and revenge.

Another technique the Left uses to increase control through public anxiety is to manufacture crises or “set multiple fires along the ridgeline.” The fires represent crises and controversies that are presented to the public via compliant media as urgent and threatening. The public (down in the ‘valley’) notices that up above them, on the hillside and ridgeline, there are multiple ‘fires’ burning at different spots, and the flames are spreading—sweeping across the terrain. Which fire does one run to first? How many can be put out?  What must be sacrificed and allowed to burn? How can the public sustain these challenges and losses? Who will save us all from burning? The ‘firemen’ of Bradbury’s Fahrenheit 451 set fires to destroy outlawed books. This ridgeline scenario is merely a variation on a theme. Control, compulsion, threats, and crises all dominate the public’s psyche.

Let us review a partial list of the cascading crises of the Biden administration: COVID pandemic, vaccine mandates and ultimatums, business shutdowns, 40-year high inflation, labor shortages, supply chain crisis, record illegal immigration and drug smuggling, the collapse of border security, record-high fuel prices, return to foreign energy dependence, Ukraine, Afghanistan, FBI and Justice Department targeting parents, record homicide rates across 16 major US cities, Fentanyl as the number one killer of Americans aged 18-45, renegotiating the Iran nuclear “deal” with Russia at the table, radical promotion of pro-transgender agenda at the expense of women’s rights and protections for women in sports, hysterical ‘insurrection’ claims of the January 6th Commission, baby formula shortages, the complete collapse of the Democrat’s sweeping climate and social spending agenda, Monkeypox, Biden’s multiple verbal gaffes, and apparent diminished mental acuity. This list is not exhaustive. It goes on and on.

More crises are sure to come. Guaranteed. Some domestic, some international, some imposed, some initiated, some clandestine, some overt. The point is that they exist, and they are hyped and manipulated and presented to the public as imminent threats. Not solutions, not victories, not ways to overcome adversity. Threats. Each one is a brick of fear in the fortress of terror in which we are to be imprisoned.

One of the most disturbing examples of America’s new state-sponsored punitive tactics is the politicization of the justice system. America now has a two-tiered system of justice. The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) has, without exaggeration, become the ‘secret police’ of the Democratic Party. Brief examples will illustrate the FBI’s disparity of treatment between conservatives and leftists. Compare and contrast the FBI’s treatment of conservatives: Presidential Advisor Dr. Peter Navarro, Project Veritas journalist James O’Keefe, and political consultant Roger Stone against the treatment of Democrat operatives: former Attorney General Eric Holder, who was held in contempt of Congress by a bipartisan majority; and the serial lies of former FBI Director James Comey, FBI Acting Director Andrew McCabe, and senior intelligence officials James Clapper and John Brennan. The public’s loss of confidence in the justice system gravely undermines democracy. Polling suggests a steady decline in public trust of both career and politically appointed government officials.

There are several other tactics and techniques the Left uses against the people to push them to abandon hope and faith. Once the people are broken through engineered crises,  then the Left pounces to implement the radical, ‘fundamental transformation’ that makes things ‘better.’ Richard Cloward and Frances Fox Piven of the Columbia University School of Social Work outlined this strategy in an article in The Nation magazine in 1966, entitled: “The Weight of the Poor: A Strategy to End Poverty.” The Cloward-Piven strategy looks to deliberately “break the system” in order to create an opportunity for even greater centralized control. Obama presidential advisor Rahm Emanuel summed it up best when he said, “You never want a serious crisis to go to waste. And what I mean by that, it’s an opportunity to do things that you think you could not do before.” How many times have we seen this? Yet there seems to be recurring, generational amnesia concerning the brutality of this process and the deadly consequences.

The Left (the European Union, President Biden, and their ilk) attacks the Hungarian success story of the Orbán government with unfounded claims of authoritarianism. They project the worst aspects of their own ideology and behavior onto their opponents without any shame or sense of irony.

At CPAC Hungary, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán shared his twelve pragmatic and proven principles for overcoming the current dominance of the so-called progressives in our societies. My own solution to defeat the attacks of the Left is quite simple, but it requires great courage. The solution has only two steps:  First—Stop forgetting.  Second—Fight back. Never let go of your heritage, history, and the facts—refuse to deny who you truly are and what you come from. Do not betray all that got you to where you are today, even if that experience was imperfect or flawed—learn and know the lessons.

The Left is not ashamed of the blood they have on their hands—of the 100 million dead that they are responsible for—they now claim just to be ‘perfecting’ their past mistakes. 

On the other hand, you represent individual liberty, freedom of conscience, and the right to be secure in your home and property, and that is the homeland security you must fight to preserve at all costs.

 


New Opportunities Are Emerging For Citizens of The World.

Freedom and democracy may appear to be struggling to stay alive in America, but there may be a knock-out punch ready to be released. The evolution of the blockchain-enabled metaverse is going to enable the 'Citizens of the World' to gain their own Freedom by democratizing power and creating a new world with new rules, new players, and new opportunities. For 99.99% of us, the metaverse will improve our real-world lives through the democratization of power and opportunity.

Along with the major long-term trend of society towards decentralization and smaller-scale organizations, there are new opportunities developing to help 'Preparers' in the cryptocurrency sector. Businesses are beginning to issue their own Crypto Coins that can be traded on Cryptocoin Exchanges.

Markethive.com for example will be releasing its HiveCoin (HIV) in the coming weeks. It has tremendous upside potential that is outlined in a Video by Founder Tom Prendergast, "Entrepreneur Advantage…".

Not only that, if you go to their website and register as a FREE Member, you will be given 500 HiveCoins for "FREE" along with access to several Earning Opportunities and online tools to increase your HiveCoin balance.

Be sure to check it out today – Markethive.com

Markethive

Tim Moseley

Gold silver down as chart-based bears pressing their case

Gold, silver down as chart-based bears pressing their case

Gold and silver prices are lower at midday today, in a choppy, two-sided trading session. The significantly bearish near-term technical postures for both metals are inviting the speculators to play the short sides of the futures markets at present. Gold hit a six-week low and silver a two-year low today. August gold futures were last down $6.80 at $1,810.60. Gold prices are close to key chart support levels ($1,800.00 and $1,792.00) that if breached would likely set off heavy sell stop orders in the futures market. July Comex silver futures were last down $0.363 at $20.29 an ounce.

The U.S. data point of the day was the personal income and outlays report for May, including the personal consumption expenditures price index component of the report that is said to be the Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation gauge. The May CPE price index came in up 6.3%, year-on-year, with the core rate up 4.7% in the same period. In the April report, the PCE price index was also reported up 6.3%, year-on-year. Metals market bulls were briefly assuaged by the stable readings in the report, as many reckoned the numbers could have been worse, possibly prompting the Federal Reserve to be even more aggressive in its monetary policy tightening. Raw commodity traders, including metals traders, have taken a tack recently of being more worried about less consumer and commercial demand for commodities amid an economic recession—as opposed to the notions of higher inflation being supportive for raw commodity prices.

Bitcoin closes June down 40% and below $20k as markets see recession fears, contagion risks

Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are lower at midday, on this last trading day of the month and of the first half of 2022. Reports said the S&P 500 is set to close out its worst half-year since the 1970s. Trader and investor risk appetite has receded late this week, following downbeat consumer confidence and GDP readings out of the U.S. this week. Fed Chairman Powell and ECB President Lagarde on Wednesday repeated warnings that their central banks will keep raising interest rates even if their economies slowed down. Recently, much of the marketplace has deemed economic recessions potential as superseding inflation worries, when placing their trades.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices lower and trading around $107.75 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is weaker in midday U.S. trading. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching around 2.9%. Yields have declined this week amid the increased concerns regarding a U.S. economic recession.

Technically, August gold prices hit a six-week low early on today. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage and have gained power this week. Prices are starting to trend down on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the June high of $1,882.50. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the May low of $1,792.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $1,826.80 and then at Wednesday’s high of $1,834.90. First support is seen at $1,800.00 and then at $1,792.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

July silver futures prices hit a two-year low today. The silver bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and gained more power today. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $22.00 an ounce. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $20.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $20.705 and then at $21.00. Next support is seen at today’s low of $20.16 and then at $20.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.

July N.Y. copper closed down 550 points at 372.40 cents today. Prices closed near mid-range today. The copper bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. A four-week-old price downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 400.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 350.00 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 384.30 cents and then at 390.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 368.80 cents and then at the June low of 364.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5.

By Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

 

 

Tim Moseley

Gold silver bulls squelched by firmer US dollar

Gold, silver bulls squelched by firmer U.S. dollar

Gold and silver prices are steady to slightly lower in midday U.S. trading Wednesday. A rally in the U.S. dollar index at mid-week kept the precious metals bulls at bay. August gold futures were last down $1.20 at $1,819.90. July Comex silver futures were last down $0.136 at $20.67 an ounce.

The marketplace was closely watching a central bankers’ forum in Portugal that began earlier today. Speakers included Fed Chairman Powell, ECB President Lagarde and Bank of England governor Bailey. However, the markets did not show any significant reactions to the central bank officials’ comments.

Today’s downbeat U.S. final first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) estimate that showed contraction of 1.6% gave the gold and silver markets a brief boost but those gains could not be held.

Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are mixed at midday. Trader and investor risk appetite has pulled back at mid-week, following downbeat consumer confidence readings out of the U.S. on Tuesday and out of the Euro zone today.

Gold prices trading near session highs as U.S. Q1 GDP drops 1.6%

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices near steady and trading around $111.75 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is higher at midday. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 3.108%.

Technically,August gold futures prices scored a mildly bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar chart today. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, the recent sideways and choppy trading action at lower price levels is suggesting a market bottom is in place. Bulls' next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the June high of $1,882.50. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,800.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $1,834.90 and then at this week’s high of $1,842.80. First support is seen at today’s low of $1,810.70 and then at the June low of $1,806.10. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

July silver futures were down $0.136 at $20.67 in midday trading today and nearer the session low. The silver bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the June high of $22.565 an ounce. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the May low of $20.42. First resistance is seen at $21.00 and then at Tuesday’s high of $21.355. Next support is seen at the June low of $20.545 and then at $20.42. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.

July N.Y. copper closed up 35 points at 377.75 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. The copper bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. A four-week-old price downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 400.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 350.00 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 384.30 cents and then at 390.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 370.75 cents and then at the June low of 364.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5.

By Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

 

 

Tim Moseley

Effective Ways to Overcome Market Crash in the Global Economy

Effective Ways to Overcome Market Crash in the Global Economy

The global economy is in flux, and many investors are feeling the impact. This unstable environment has led to widespread panic, which has caused some people to make irrational decisions with their investments. To overcome this difficult time, individuals need to understand how these crashes happen and what steps they can take to minimize the damage done. There are different ways that investment crashes occur, and each one presents its own set of risks and challenges.

The investment crash is a devastating event that has impacted many people differently. However, by being prepared for the crisis and employing various methods to overcome it, most people were able to restore their wealth and rebuild their lives.

A few effective ways can help investors overcome these crashes and stay safe throughout this turbulent time. Let's get started!

What is a market crash?

The term "market crash" refers to a sudden and sharp decline in the value of one or more markets or assets that can trace directly to an economic factor. Such as a shortage of currency or a decline in demand due to bad weather or political events, or because there has been a market bubble inflated by excessive exuberance or greed among investors (people who trade securities).

The market crash can also be seen as anything from a mild drop in prices to a total market collapse in less than a day. It can happen when there is too much demand for one particular product, and the sellers cannot supply enough to meet that demand. Hence, prices start to drop rapidly to try and clear out excess stock before it falls into the hands of someone else who wants it more than you do or who will pay less than your price because they are buying on credit, etc.

A market crash may be temporary, with prices recovering in days or weeks. However, a market crash can signal the start of a more prolonged downturn that can last for months or even years. A perfect example is the U.S housing market crash of 2007, which started with a relatively mild decline in home prices leading up to 2005.

What causes a market crash?

An eventual crash is inevitable in a market so full of madness.

The best place to start is with "Why did it happen" (what caused the crash)? And then from there, you can get an idea of what caused the crash, how it was created, and why people didn't do anything about it until it was too late to prevent it from becoming so big that nobody could recover from it before it became terrible. It would cause substantial social upheaval, leading to chaos, war, economic collapse, etc. This seems to be the same problem we are facing now: a large-scale problem that is not being dealt with but will become much worse over time without being dealt with, creating massive civil unrest which may lead to widespread chaos and mass death from starvation, etc. So we need to try to understand this problem and hopefully find some way to solve it. The first step is to understand the reason for the crash.

A common answer is that there are just too many people trying to buy assets simultaneously or too much money being thrown into the market by too many investors. This leads to over-speculation and a bubble that bursts when it inevitably collapses under its weight in a process known as a "crash."

For instance, an economic bubble occurs when too many people try to buy assets such as stocks, crypto, bonds, etc., resulting in overinflated prices and consequently more losses than gains for those who try to sell them when the SMART MONIES (top firms and individual wealthy investors) have already left the market. This leads to widespread bankruptcies, as individuals or businesses with debts cannot afford to pay off their mortgages and can no longer keep up with their interest payments on their loans, so they default and lose all their assets.

When investors start to sell their assets as they believe market prices are unrealistic and will fall in the future, this can cause wide-scale panic selling of assets. This creates a downward spiral of further market price falls as investors lose confidence in holding a particular asset and selling it as quickly as possible.

Every investor lives with the risk of a major economic meltdown, no matter how small. It has occurred before, and it can happen again. If it does, years of hard-earned savings and retirement funds could be wiped out in hours, days, weeks, or months.

Fortunately, you can take measures to safeguard most of your assets from a market crash or even a global economic depression. Preparation and diversification are the pivotal elements of a sound defensive strategy. Altogether, they can help you withstand a financial storm.

Diversify

Diversifying your portfolio is possibly the single most significant measure that you can take to safeguard your investments from a severe bear market. In other words, if you're 100% invested in one particular stock or sector, then when the market goes into freefall, you will be devastated financially and emotionally, as well, as it might take years to recover from such an experience! 

Diversification means exposure to different assets, including stocks, bonds, crypto, etc, and being exposed to various sectors of the economy (e.g., banking/finance, consumer discretionary, technology, etc.). However, if you diversify too much, you risk spreading yourself thin and thus exposing yourself to potential risks that might impact your investment returns.

Be Quick to Run to Safety

Whenever natural market turbulence or new unfavorable policies are enacted by the government in most notable nations of the world, most people quickly liquidate their assets into cash equivalents. You may also want to do the same if you can do it before the crash.

Although this depends on the economic sector you invested in. You can always get back in when prices are much lower. Then, when the trend or economy eventually reverses, you can profit much more from the appreciation.

When you wait too long to exit the market during a turbulent time, you may be forced into a position that is not the best for you financially to maintain capitalization and stay profitable, if at all possible.

Make Guaranteed Investments 

You may likely don't want all of your savings in guaranteed investments. They don't pay off well enough. But it's wise to keep at least a small portion in something that isn't going to fall with the markets. The best part about this is that you can be confident that you have some money set aside to take care of yourself, so if things go south, you won't be too worried because you have a safety net in place.

Bank certificate of deposit (CD) and Treasury securities are a good bet for the long term, especially if they earn higher yields than what you'd get on your money in cash or other investments that pay little interest (like government bills). That's why these are often called "safety" issues. If rates go up, your principal is protected; but as long as rates stay low, the return is generally higher than that offered by cash or Treasuries (which also come with risks). The downside is that it can take years to make back what you paid.

Hedge Your Bets

When you see a significant downturn ahead, don't hesitate to set yourself up to profit directly from it. There are several ways you can do this, and one of the best is by hedging your bets with options trading strategies designed to take advantage of declines in stock prices and other financial markets.

One popular strategy is buying covered calls, which pay out if the underlying security price falls enough, so the call expires worthless. This means that you have earned 100% on your money (unless the option contract was written so the writer could exercise his right to repurchase the shares at the strike price). This strategy works great when a particular company has been experiencing declining sales over time but is currently selling at a premium because of investor optimism.

Offset Your Debts

Do you have considerable debts, you may be better off liquidating some or all of your holdings and settling off the debts if you see bad weather approaching in the markets. You will probably lose money doing this, but it's possible that the loss could be less than what you would have suffered if you had kept the assets in place and the market went down when you needed to sell them most heavily because they were now worth much more than they were then.

Suppose you are going to pay down debt. You might consider making a lump sum payment over time rather than paying it off install mentally. This could cause problems with your retirement savings or investments if you cannot afford them now because you are losing money on the market and need the cash to live on during the worst of times before things improve.

In Summary

Finally, remember that while a crash is never easy, it is essential to emerge stronger. Don't give up on your goals, and don't let the market defeat you. Use these tips to make the most of a difficult situation and succeed where others have failed.

There is no one answer to overcoming an investment crash. However, staying informed, having a plan, and being resilient are all essential steps in avoiding a crash and succeeding when it does happen. In the last five years or so we have witnessed some of the most extreme market corrections on record.

I believe we are likely headed for another one soon as markets continue to be driven by exuberance fueled by easy money from central banks around the world. Hence the rising government deficits that are rapidly growing our national debt, and further eroding investors’ confidence in their ability to withstand a significant loss of wealth over some time if they should choose to do so all without negative implications for the economy.

 

Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

 

 

 

Tim Moseley

An important bigger-picture perspective on gold

An important bigger-picture perspective on gold

Editor's Note: With so much market volatility, stay on top of daily news! Get caught up in minutes with our speedy summary of today's must-read news and expert opinions. Sign up here!

(Kitco News) – An examination of the monthly continuation chart for nearby Comex gold futures is a classic example of why it’s important to look at the longer-term charts, in order to gain a critical over-the-horizon perspective on where a market has been and where it may be heading.

The monthly gold chart shows prices are still not far below the record high of $2,078.80, basis nearby futures, scored in March of this year. Prices have pulled back from the record high, but not a lot, by longer-term historical standards. Technical analysts call this price action a “downside correction” in an overall longer-term price uptrend that remains in place. Gold market bulls still have the firm longer-term technical advantage.

By Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

 

 

Tim Moseley

Market participant wait for two key reports this week GDP and PCE

Market participant wait for two key reports this week; GDP and PCE

Analysts and investors are waiting for two critical government reports due out on Wednesday and Thursday of this week. On Wednesday the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will release its latest numbers on real GDP which will be followed on Thursday by the PCE for May 2022.

Concerns over a potential recession which will either be confirmed or negated by Wednesday’s GDP report. These concerns took both the dollar and gold lower today. As of 5:35 PM EDT gold futures basis, the most active August 2022 contract is trading $6.30 (-0.34%) lower and currently fixed at $1824 per ounce. The dollar lost 0.244 points today taking the dollar index to 103.715.

According to a report by Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at J.P. Morgan asset management, “1Q22 Real GDP showed the economy contracted at a 1.5% annual rate in 1Q22, a deceleration from the boomy 4Q21. Weakness was primarily led by volatile trade and inventory data. Trade subtracted 3.2% from overall GDP growth as exports fell sharply and imports soared.”

The report also said that first-quarter 2022 earnings have held up better than expected. However, inflation continues to far exceed the FOMC’s 2% target with the May CPI report indicating hotter than expected inflation despite hopes by the Federal Reserve that it would moderate.

He concluded the following; first, the Federal Reserve could push the economy into a recession if it over-tightens in response to supply-driven inflation. Secondly, heightened geopolitical tensions with Russia could result in continued energy shortages, low consumer confidence, and dampening growth. Lastly, he concluded that markets may remain depressed and volatile until investors receive clarity on inflation and the Fed.

The other key report which will be released on Thursday is the PCE price index for May. The PCE for April revealed a slight uptick in core inflation increasing by 0.2% month over month. However. This was a decrease from the increase in March which came in at a 0.9% increase in MoM.

Although we will have to wait until Thursday for the official PCE price index from the BEA, last week they reported that “The U.S. current-account deficit widened by $66.6 billion, or 29.6 percent, to $291.4 billion in the first quarter of 2022, according to statistics released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. The revised fourth-quarter deficit was $224.8 billion. The first-quarter deficit was 4.8 percent of current-dollar gross domestic product, up from 3.7 percent in the fourth quarter.”

August gold opened at $1839.60 today and traded to a high of $1842.80. Today’s high was $1.10 below the 200-day moving average which is currently fixed at $1843.90. This puts the first level of resistance in gold at the 200-day moving average. Above that, there is resistance at $1850.40, the highest value gold achieved in trading last week. Our technical studies indicate that major resistance is currently at $1882 which corresponds to the highest value of gold achieved this month on June 13.

Strong support for gold does not occur until $1805 with major support at $1786.20. Both levels of support are based upon recent price lows.
 

By Gary Wagner

Contributing to kitco.com

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

 

 

Tim Moseley

The Artist that came out of the Winter