Gold closes higher to end nine consecutive daily declines and lower lows

Gold futures had declined for the last nine consecutive days taking prices dramatically lower from just under $1980 per ounce to yesterday’s low of $1914. Today gold futures basis the most active December contract is trading fractionally higher up $3.40 and currently fixed at $1918.60. However, if you look under the hood so to speak it was dollar weakness that provided the tailwinds which moved gold higher breaking the consecutive losing streak.

The dollar is trading down 0.16% and gold futures are up by 0.17% indicating that today’s gains were almost totally the net result of dollar weakness. The dollar index is currently down 0.155 points and fixed at 103.315. Silver which had also been deep in a corrective mode is now in its second day of higher pricing. The most active September futures contract is currently fixed at $22.81 after factoring in today’s net gain of $0.095.

On a technical basis, there are market technicians that believe that nine consecutive lower lows will typically be followed by a price reversal.

There is a Japanese candlestick pattern that is based upon a series of nine consecutive days of price declines. This price pattern is based upon the identification of 8 to 10 new price highs, or new price lows. The theory behind this Japanese candlestick pattern group is that after 8 to 10 new price lows the market has moved into an oversold condition. This pattern is an exhaustion pattern and identifies potential markets being oversold.

There is also a world-renowned technical market analyst who has created multiple mathematical formulas which are used for market timing and analytics, Tom DeMark. His proprietary studies and formulas designed to identify areas of potential price inflection have identified a pattern based on the numbers 9 and 13.

Simply called 9*, which according to Demark says that after nine consecutive price declines with lower lows is often followed by a price reversal.

According to Tom Demark indicators, “A 9 indication marks a completion of the Setup phase in the Sequential and Combo family of indicators. The 9 output looks for a series of consecutive price comparisons to define the underlying environment. Generally speaking, these 9 results are often followed by a price reversal, with the impact and duration defined by other elements of the indicator.”

Although gold trading higher by three dollars today does not indicate a full-blown reversal in the precious yellow metal, a price reversal must begin in exactly this way. We will have to wait till next week to see if there is follow-through bullish market sentiment moving gold off its recent lows.

Gary S. Wagner

Time to Buy Gold and silver

Tim Moseley

Gold weaker as U.S. Treasury yields continue to climb

Gold prices are modestly down and hit another five-month low today, as U.S. Treasury yields are on the rise, with the 10-year note scoring its highest yield in 15 years, at around 4.3%. The present rally in the U.S. dollar index is another bearish element that have the gold and silver sellers in overall control. December gold was last down $5.20 at $1,923.20 and September silver was up $0.19 at $22.72.

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The minutes from the last FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve, released Wednesday afternoon, reminded traders and investors that the Fed remains committed to bringing down U.S. inflation. The marketplace read the minutes as leaning hawkish. U.S. Treasury yields rose further following the release of the minutes, while the U.S. dollar index hit a nine-week high overnight. Gold prices dropped to a five-month low overnight.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index near steady on a pause from recent gains. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $81.00 a barrel.

Asian and European stock markets were mixed in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are weaker near midday.

In overnight news, China’s central bank said it will provide further stimulus to the listing Chinese economy. The central bank said it wants to prevent the Chinese yuan from further depreciation. The central bank also said it will coordinate financial support for local government debt risk and provide support to the housing market. The statements came from the People’s Bank of China second-quarter monetary policy report. China’s weakening economic growth has also been a drag on the precious metals market bulls, on weaker demand worries.

Technically, December gold futures prices hit another five-month low today. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $1,980.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,900.00. First resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of $1,938.20 and then at $1,950.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $1,918.80 and then at $1,910.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

September silver futures bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $24.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $21.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $23.07 and then at $23.50. Next support is seen at this week’s low of $22.265 and then at $22.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

September N.Y. copper closed up 355 points at 369.30 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session high and hit a 2.5-month low early on today. Prices also scored a bullish outside day up today. The copper bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a fledgling downtrend on the daily bar chart. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the July high of 402.40 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the May low of 356.50 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 371.95 cents and then at this week’s high of 374.90 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 362.70 cents and then at 360.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

By

Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and silver

Tim Moseley

Federal Reserve minutes reveal angst regarding ‘Upside Inflation Risks’

The minutes from the July FOMC meeting were released today. The document indicated that most Federal Reserve officials still believe that high levels of inflation are an ongoing threat and merit additional interest rate hikes. However, there was not an overall unison regarding the path forward in what can be best described as mixed messages amongst Federal Reserve members.

One of the primary takeaways was that members were divided over the question of further rate hikes. While most Fed officials were in favor of an increase in the terminal interest rate (Fed funds rate), some members believe that further hikes might take rates too high.

According to an article in The Wall Street Journal, “Minutes of the July policy meeting, released Wednesday, said some officials thought the risks of raising rates too much versus too little “had become more two-sided, and it was important that the committee’s decisions balance the risk of an inadvertent overtightening of policy against the cost of an insufficient tightening.”

A divided Federal Reserve reveals mixed messaging

Numerous mixed messages were revealed by Fed members. Although “most” senior voting members were in favor of a further increase in interest rates, there were a few notable dissenters to that view. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, a voting member said, “I believe we may be at the point where we can be patient and hold rates steady.”

In addition, presidents of both Boston and Atlanta federal banks revealed that they were in favor of a longer pause. Last week Susan Collins, President of the Boston Federal Reserve Bank said, “The risks of doing too much have increased and are much closer to balance, relative to the risks of not doing enough.”

Other Fed members expressed apprehension about the real possibility that underlying price pressures may prove to be more persistent as a direct result of a tight labor market. A tight labor market would allow workers to bargain for higher pay and that would make it more difficult to reduce inflationary pressures.

Also in an interview last week, Tom Barkin, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond expressed uncertainty that inflation could be moved to the Fed’s 2% target, “If the economy is softening as you would expect. If it’s not, then I do wonder about the policy path.”

Yesterday, Neel Kashkari, President of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank reinforced the idea of more rate hikes when he said that the Fed “Is not ready to declare victory in the battle over high inflation.”

Overall, there is a consensus that the Federal Reserve will not raise rates at the next FOMC meeting in September. At the same time, according to the CME’s FedWatch tool, there is a one in three chance that the Fed will implement one more 0.25% rate hike this year. Since interest rate hikes this year have resulted in bearish market sentiment taking gold lower, today’s minutes will most likely continue that trend.

As of 4:30 PM EDT, gold futures basis the most active December contract is currently down $11.50 or 0.59% and fixed at $1923.70. Today’s price decline was based on a mixture of dollar strength and traders bidding the precious yellow metal lower. Currently, the dollar (DX) is up 0.26% and the index is fixed at 103.36.

By

Gary Wagner

Contributing to kitco.com

Time to Buy Gold and silver

Tim Moseley

Gold continues to trade lower following a strong U.S. retail sales report

One could expect that the latest government report on retail sales revealing that they increased by 0.7% in July would garner a positive reaction in U.S. equities. However, it had the exact opposite effect taking all three major indices lower. This is because strong economic growth gives the Federal Reserve more latitude to continue to raise rates as they work to bring inflation down to its target of 2%.

Today, Neel Kashkari, President of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank reinforced the idea of more rate hikes by the Federal Reserve this year when he said that the Fed “is not ready to declare victory in the battle over high inflation.” Kashkari made that comment in a discussion during the API Group’s Global Controllers Conference. He also added that “Inflation is coming down. We have made progress and good progress. I feel good about that. It’s still too high.”

According to an article in MarketWatch, “Kashkari, who is a voting member of the Fed’s interest-rate committee this year, said that given the recent positive signs on inflation, the Fed can take a little bit more time to get some more data before we decide to do more. The Fed is a long way away from cutting rates because core inflation is still around 4%.”

Kashkari framed his comments with a warning about not repeating the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve in the 1970’s saying he wanted to avoid repeating the experience.

Tomorrow market participants will gain more insight into the internal thought process of Federal Reserve members when the minutes from last month’s FOMC meeting are released. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta released its latest estimate of GDP growth at 5% today. The Atlanta Fed uses a modeling system they developed called GDPNow, which is based on using available economic data for the current measured quarter.

The truth is that further rate hikes by the Federal Reserve will provide more bearish tailwinds for gold evident in today’s continued decline in gold prices. Gold has declined for the last seven consecutive trading days. Beginning on August 7 gold prices began a correction which has been characterized by a series of lower lows, and lower highs when viewed on a daily chart. On Monday, August 7 gold traded to an intraday high of $1991 almost $50 above today’s intraday high of $1944.30.

As of 4:50 PM EDT, gold futures basis the most active December contract is currently down $9.80 or 0.50% and fixed at $1934.30. The vast majority of today’s price decline was based on traders bidding the precious yellow metal lower with an extremely fractional loss from dollar strength. Currently, the dollar is up 0.06% taking the index to 103.12.

Gary S. Wagner

By

Gary Wagner

Contributing to kitco.com

Time to Buy Gold and silver

Tim Moseley

The Gold market is stuck in neutral but there are still plenty of triggers

The gold market is stuck in neutral and could remain there through the rest of the summer as U.S. economic data continues to support the Federal Reserve's monetary policy tightening bias; however, analysts say that near-term weakness could be seen as a buying opportunity as the market waits for a new spark to trigger a broader rally.

While the gold market has been fairly resilient, with December gold futures holding support around $1,950 an ounce, analysts said that the precious metal still faces a challenging environment, especially as short-term bond yields continue to yield around 5%.

The gold market is seeing its second week of sharp losses. December gold last traded at $1,946.50 an ounce, down 1.5% from last Friday.

"Gold has a lot of competition as a safe-haven asset as the idea of a soft landing in the U.S. economy grows as consensus," said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA. "The long-term interest in gold is there, but this is going to be a tough environment. Gold will struggle until we see a market risk event."

Ole Hansen, head of commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, said he also sees gold prices struggling as opportunity costs for holding the precious metal continue to rise. He added that investors are frustrated with holding gold as they liquidate their positions and move into equity markets.

He said that with the U.S. economy remaining fairly resilient in the face of the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hikes, there is no urgency for investors to get into gold. He added that the gold market is waiting for the right trigger, which could take some time.

Analysts note that markets remain laser-focused on economic data as the Federal Reserve keeps its options open and remains data-dependent. The problem for traders and investors is that the data is still not providing any clear guidance.

This past week's Consumer Price Index shows that inflation is still well above the Federal Reserve's 2% target and looking ahead, some analysts are not expecting U.S. retail sales numbers to provide any new insight into personal consumption.

Analysts also said that the minutes from the Federal Reserve's July monetary policy meeting are also unlikely to provide any solid guidance ahead of September's decision.

Analysts have said that U.S. economic data has to turn decisively negative before interest rate expectations start to shift.

"CPI is still too high for the Fed to be relaxed about inflation for now. Higher carry, and opportunity cost make it very expensive to hold bullion," said analysts at TD Securities. "With gold currently trading at around $1,914/oz, we think that gold runs below $1,900/oz support (fib/200dma) from here, should data remain firm and inflation edge higher due to energy. Longer-term, however, positioning and likely aggressive action on the easing front, once data turns convincingly negative, should catalyze a robust rally which could take the yellow metal into $2,100/oz territory in late 2023-early-2024."

Sean Lusk, co-director of commercial hedging at Walsh Trading, said that despite the near-term challenges for gold, weakness should be bought. He noted that gold still remains well supported in the long term.

Aside from the economic data, the bond market is something that analysts are keeping an eye on, as higher volatility could be the spark that ignites a broader rally. While the U.S. bond market is not expected to see an immediate collapse, analysts said they are looking for cracks.

"At some point, investors need to realize that the government is printing too much money and once they do, gold will rally," said Lusk.

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Hansen said that although the debt burden is not an immediate threat, it remains a significant reason why investors won't want to sell too much of their gold.

Concerns over U.S. debt levels started to grow after Fitch Ratings downgraded U.S. long-term debt. Those fears were sharpened this past week following a disappointing 30-year bond auction.

"This weak auction highlighted for the first time this week the structural issue that the market is struggling to absorb all the new debt sales/issuance," said Nicky Shiels, head of metals strategy at MKS PAMP. "At some point, the U.S. debt issue will matter for gold, but as long as the market plays for larger debt sales (read higher US yields), gold is just another proxy to short/sell.

Price levels to watch

Analysts note that the contango in the gold market, between December futures and spot prices, remains a risk in the marketplace. In this environment, some analysts have said that they expect futures markets will likely have to fall closer to spot prices as economic data has proven to be more resilient than expected, raising expectations that the U.S. will avoid a harsh recession this year.

Analysts have said that critical support in December gold futures comes in between $1,950 and $1,940. Michael Moore, the creator of Moore Analytics, said that gold is headed lower unless there is a decent break above $1,955.30 an ounce.

In the spot market, analysts are expecting gold to test support at around $1,900 an ounce, which also represents the market's 200-day moving average.

Next week's data:

Tuesday: U.S. Retail Sales, Empire State Manufacturing

Wednesday: U.S. Housing Starts and Building Permits, FOMC meeting minutes

Thursday: Weekly Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Survey
 

By

Neils Christensen

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and silver

Tim Moseley

Bank of Canada finds little reason for Canadians to adopt a CBDC, RCMP wants a digital repository for seized crypto

An investigation conducted by the Bank of Canada (BoC) has found that the average Canadian sees little reason to adopt a central bank digital currency (CBDC), which could lead to problems with such a product being broadly accepted should the central bank ultimately decide to release a digital loonie.

The main focus of the investigation was on the scenario where “the emergence of a cashless society” could warrant the introduction of a general-purpose, cash-like CBDC in Canada

In the event that a cashless society emerges, the BoC determined that “most people, represented by the typical consumer and early adopters, would continue to have their usual payment needs met without cash by using various electronic methods” including digital and mobile wallets. “Technology-averse consumers would have access to fewer payment methods in a cashless environment but could continue to transact using debit and credit cards as well as cheques.”

The BoC made a point to stress that it is “committed to supplying cash as long as demand for it remains,” and “will not unilaterally stop supplying bank notes.”

“If the volume of cash transactions were to fall to a significantly low level, it would not be because of the Bank’s decisions,” the BoC said. “It would result from the cumulative behavior of most consumers, merchants and cash distributors (such as banks and other operators of ABMs) moving away from cash.”

In the scenario where the BoC issues a CBDC focused on providing payment services in a cashless environment, the bank determined that “A universally accessible CBDC that facilitated online purchases could benefit cash-dependent consumers,” especially those who are unbanked, as long as “their access to CBDC did not require a bank account.”

“Currently, most Canadian consumers do not experience gaps in their access to payment methods, and this will likely remain the case in a cashless environment,” the BoC said. “Some people could, however, face difficulties making payments if cash were no longer widely accepted as a method of payment.”

The report said that 98% of Canadian adults have a bank account, 87% have a credit card, and 90% of rural and urban households combined can access high-quality internet.

In order for a CBDC to serve as a cash replacement in a cashless society, it “would need to be widely adopted and used at scale by the dominant consumer groups who face few gaps in meeting their payment needs,” they said. “Such adoption and use would be necessary to motivate merchant acceptance, which, in turn, would encourage further consumer use and merchant acceptance.”

“However, the dominant consumer groups in this analysis may have relatively weak incentives for adopting and using a CBDC, so achieving widespread merchant acceptance could be challenging,” the BoC added.

“As a practical matter, achieving wide adoption, acceptance, and use of CBDC could be challenging because most Canadians have access to several methods of payment using commercial bank money, provided by sophisticated incumbents,” the BoC said. “Overcoming such barriers could require significant and sustained investment by the central bank.”

Instead of releasing a CBDC, the BoC outlined several steps that could be taken to help provide services to the underbanked, including improving internet access, expanding low-cost bank account availability, increasing merchant collaboration with remote communities, and continuing to supply cash.

  Canada's financial regulator updates guidance for crypto asset exposure

RCMP puts out the call for a digital repository for seized assets

In other blockchain news out of Canada, the Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) and Shared Services Canada (SSC) announced they are looking to develop a digital asset solution “to facilitate the seizure and storage of cryptocurrency and non-fungible tokens (NFTs) from multiple public blockchains.”

“With the rise of new and innovative methods to store and transfer assets, Canadian Law enforcement needs a safe and secure method to identify and seize said assets,” the RCMP said. “This challenge aims to leverage the private sector's innovation to develop a system used by the police to seize and store the ill-gotten gains from criminal activities.”

“The development of a centralized repository solution would allow police officers to seize these assets in a user-friendly manner, while also offering significant security to prevent the theft of said assets during their storage,” they added.

The RCMP listed 17 requirements that would be needed for such a repository, including the ability to process transactions for the top 20 cryptocurrency blockchains by market capitalization and the ability to scale to support new blockchains and NFTs in the future.

The proposed solution should also “Allow officers to query a public blockchain address and view balances and transactions; Present officers with clear instructions on how to seize assets through a step-by-step guide in the application; and Be able to accept and process transactions for the top 100 cryptocurrency blockchains by market capitalization,” RCMP said.

Submissions that receive a ‘Phase 1’ contract can receive up to CAD$150,000 and have 6 months to develop their product. Eligible businesses that successfully complete Phase 1 will be invited to submit a proposal for ‘Phase 2,’ which offers up to CAD$1 million in funding and allows 12 months to submit a final product. The RCMP estimates that it will accept four submissions in Phase 1 and two submissions in Phase 2.

“Final decisions on the number of Phase 1 and Phase 2 awards will be made by Canada on the basis of factors such as evaluation results, departmental priorities and availability of funds,” the RCMP said. “Canada reserves the right to make partial awards and to negotiate project scope changes.”

By

Jordan Finneseth

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and silver

Tim Moseley