Bitcoin Primed For Multi-Billion-Dollar Boost With Hong Kong Greenlighting Spot BTC ETFs Next Week

Bitcoin Primed For Multi-Billion-Dollar Boost With Hong Kong Greenlighting Spot BTC ETFs Next Week

By Brenda Ngari – April 10, 2024

According to people familiar with the matter, regulators in Hong Kong are set to give the nod to a roster of applications for spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETF) as early as next week. This means the ETFs investing directly in Bitcoin could begin trading in April.

The expected approval of Hong Kong-based spot Bitcoin ETFs would take place approximately three months after the Securities and Exchange Commission approved the first cluster in the US.

As traditional institutional and retail investors in Hong Kong gain access to Bitcoin, the investment landscape stands on the cusp of a substantial shift.

Hong Kong Expedites Bitcoin ETF Approvals

Hong Kong is all set to become Asia’s first city to offer Bitcoin ETFs.

Sources familiar with the matter have told Reuters that Hong Kong’s Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) could greenlight its first set of spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund applications by April 15.

Harvest Hong Kong, Hong Kong units of China Asset Management, Harvest Fund Management, and Bosera Asset Management have already submitted applications for spot Bitcoin ETFs with the SFC.

As reported earlier by ZyCrypto, as many as 10 financial institutions have planned to apply to list BTC ETFs in Hong Kong. Reuters revealed that Hong Kong regulators have fast-tracked the approval process, making it likely for the funds to start trading this month.

Notably, Hong Kong regulators have been attempting to loosen their approach to crypto in recent months in an attempt to become a global hub for the sector.

A Game-Changer

Meanwhile, spot Bitcoin ETFs from Wall Street titans like BlackRock and Fidelity began trading on US exchanges in mid-January. They have accumulated roughly $58 billion in assets since then, despite constant outflows from Grayscale’s GBTC. The demand for these products propelled the largest cryptocurrency by market cap to a historic $73,737 last month.

The Asian crypto market is arguably much larger than the U.S. crypto market in terms of volume. This means that launching ETFs in Hong Kong could attract a significant amount of money into the funds.

The greenlighting process in Hong Kong is expected to follow a trend similar to that of the U.S., where the SEC approved multiple BTC ETFs simultaneously.

That being said, spot Bitcoin ETF approvals in Hong Kong are likely to encourage more investors and financial institutions to consider the benchmark crypto as a viable investment option.

DISCLAIMER The views expressed in the article are wholly those of the author and do not represent those of, nor should they be attributed to, ZyCrypto. This article is not meant to give financial advice. Please carry out your own research before investing in any of the various cryptocurrencies available.

The original article written by Brenda Ngari and posted on ZyCrypto.com.

Article reposted on Markethive by Jeffrey Sloe

** Loans, secure funding for business projects in the USA and around the world. Learn more about USA & International Financing at Commercial Funding International. **

Tim Moseley

Gold silver firmer as bull-market runs remain strong

Gold, silver firmer as bull-market runs remain strong

Gold prices are higher and hit another record high overnight, with June Comex gold reaching $2,384.50. Silver prices are slightly up and hit a nearly three-year high overnight, at $28.44 basis May Comex futures. More and more traders of all markets are climbing aboard the bullish gold and silver train, suggesting still more upside price potential in the near term. Save-haven buying remains a feature in both metals. June gold was last up $12.80 at $2,363.90. May silver was last up $0.073 at $27.875. Gold is presently outperforming the S&P 500 so far this year.

U.S. stock indexes are weaker near midday. It’s a quieter U.S. data day again Tuesday but the pace picks up Wednesday. The releases of the March consumer price index and the minutes of the last FOMC meeting will come at mid-week. The March CPI is seen coming in at up 3.4%, year-on-year. The core CPI, excluding food and energy, is seen at up 3.7% annually. Thursday comes the U.S. March producer price index and the European Central Bank monetary policy meeting.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $85.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching around 4.25%.

Technically, June gold futures bulls have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. A seven-week-old uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $2,400.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $2,250.00. First resistance is seen at today’s contract high of $2,384.50 and then at $2,400.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $2,355.70 and then at this week’s low of $2,321.70. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 9.0.

May silver futures prices hit nearly three-year high today. The silver bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. An accelerating seven-week-old price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $30.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $26.40. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $28.44 and then at $29.00. Next support is seen at today’s low of $27.725 and then at $27.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0.

May N.Y. copper closed up 50 points at 428.10 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a 14-month high early on today. The copper bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a two-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical

resistance at 450.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 400.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 433.35 cents and then at 437.50 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 425.25 cents and then at 420.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0.

Kitco Media

Jim Wyckoff

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Dogecoin Surpasses Ethereum XRP Solana As The Most Traded Coin After Bitcoin

Dogecoin Surpasses Ethereum, XRP, Solana As The Most Traded Coin After Bitcoin

By Brenda Ngari – April 9, 2024

In a noteworthy development for the cryptocurrency industry, the top meme coin Dogecoin (DOGE), has become the most traded altcoin on South Korea’s largest exchange, Upbit.

DOGE Draws Major Attention In South Korea

Dogecoin has claimed the title of the second most traded crypto on the popular South Korean exchange Upbit, in a clear display of the token’s skyrocketing popularity and appeal in global markets. DOGE has noticeably eclipsed other prominent cryptos like ether (ETH), Ripple’s XRP, and Solana (SOL) in terms of trading volume. This development is quite notable for the canine-themed cryptocurrency, which has registered a strong rally in recent months.

In cryptocurrency circles, South Korean traders are notorious for driving euphoric rallies on coins. Furthermore, the Asian country has emerged as one of the largest markets for crypto with a young, tech-friendly population. With its vibrant support for cryptocurrencies, Korea’s market serves as a yardstick for trends and changes in the global trading sentiment.

Dogecoin’s growth from a mere joke to a significant contender in the cryptosphere has been nothing short of remarkable. The prominent doggy-themed crypto seems well-positioned for tremendous growth within this rapidly evolving market.

Dogecoin is currently priced at $0.19, down 6% on the day amid a crypto market downturn, per data from CoinGecko. The crypto remains a far cry from its all-time high price of $0.73, posted in May 2021 at the height of the crypto bull market.

Bitcoin Dominates Upbit

Notably, Bitcoin, the largest token by market cap, remains the most traded crypto on Upbit. BTC has been on a steady uptrend since the beginning of 2024 amid anticipation and the subsequent approval of nearly a dozen US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs. Last month, the leading crypto rocketed to a new all-time high above $73K as the ETFs saw record inflows and trading volumes.

Although Bitcoin remains the world’s most popular and internationally accepted crypto, Dogecoin’s growing reputation on Upbit was quite unusual. Given DOGE’s rapid growth, it wouldn’t come as a surprise to see the top-ranking meme coin top Bitcoin on Upbit.

DISCLAIMER: None Of The Information You Read On ZyCrypto Should Be Regarded As Investment Advice. Cryptocurrencies Are Highly Volatile, Conduct Your Own Research Before Making Any Investment Decisions.

The original article written by Brenda Ngari and posted on ZyCrypto.com.

Article reposted on Markethive by Jeffrey Sloe

** Get secure funding for business projects in the USA and around the world. Learn more about USA & International Financing at Commercial Funding International. **

Tim Moseley

Pre-Halving Miracle? Crypto Analyst Envisions Bitcoin Hitting A Dizzying 220000 Before Halving

Pre-Halving Miracle? Crypto Analyst Envisions Bitcoin Hitting A Dizzying $220,000 Before Halving

By Brenda Ngari – April 9, 2024

Crypto strategist Gert van Lagen has put forward a daring prognosis that Bitcoin could rocket to a staggering $220,000 before the network’s impending halving event, which is to happen in roughly 11 days.

Amid a sea of traders and industry experts, Bitcoin is currently valued at $70,391, a notch up by 2.7%.

Major Spike Before Halving?

The forthcoming Bitcoin halving is eagerly awaited as a potential trigger for the next monumental bull market. However, analyst Gert van Lagen is predicting a seismic $220K price tag even before this pivotal event.

The chart attached to van Lagen’s forecast shows a classic Elliott Wave pattern, which suggests that markets move in predictable, repetitive cycles influenced by investor psychology. These cycles entail a five-wave phase followed by a three-wave corrective trend.

The pundit thinks the flagship crypto is currently in the third phase. Going forward, BTC could encounter a pullback before entering its fourth and fifth price eruption phases. But in his opinion, the current third phase might turn out to be the most bullish, with a vertical rally in this blow-off phase.

Notably, Elliott Wave Theory should be taken with a healthy grain of salt. The theory is mainly slammed for its subjectivity as different traders can interpret the patterns differently — which can result in varying predictions that may be inaccurate.

Bitcoin Has “Room To Run”

Bitcoin is currently flirting with the $72,000 level after experiencing a lull last week. It’s now 2.7% off its all-time high of $73,737, according to data from CoinGecko. It hit that milestone in March.

Meanwhile, SkyBridge Capital boss Anthony Scaramucci recently told CNBC that Bitcoin could climb to as high as $170K during the cycle and could ultimately change hands at around half the value of the global gold market.

“I’m simply saying it could trade to half the valuation of gold, which is around six to eight to 10 times move from here.”

Scaramucci, however, warned that “it’s not going to happen overnight” and there will be high volatility along the way.

Bitcoin currently boasts a market capitalization of $1.4 trillion, while gold commands a total value of nearly $16 trillion. If BTC were to trade at half the market cap of gold, its value would need to increase at least six times from current levels, which would translate to a price of roughly $400,000 per coin.

DISCLAIMER

The views expressed in the article are wholly those of the author and do not represent those of, nor should they be attributed to, ZyCrypto. This article is not meant to give financial advice. Please carry out your own research before investing in any of the various cryptocurrencies available.

The original article written by Brenda Ngari and posted on Zycrypto.com.

Article reposted on Markethive by Jeffrey Sloe

** Loans, secure funding for business projects in the USA and around the world. Learn more about USA & International Financing at Commercial Funding International. **

Tim Moseley

The gold price is up nearly 19 in this rally but you haven’t seen anything yet – abrdn’s Robert Minter

The gold price is up nearly 19% in this rally, but you haven’t seen anything yet – abrdn’s Robert Minter

Although Western investors continue to ignore gold even as prices continue to hit record highs, they are no longer actively getting in the way of higher prices, which means the current rally has legs to run higher, according to one market analyst.

In an interview with Kitco News, Robert Minter, Director Of Investment Strategy at abrdn, said that gold’s rally to record highs above $2,350 an ounce is just getting started, and it's only a matter of time before retail investors jump into gold-backed exchange-traded funds to kick off the next major leg higher.

Minter’s comments come as abrdn celebrates a significant milestone with its gold-backed ETF. Last week, assets under management in abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF (NYSE: SGOL) surpassed $3 billion for the first time.

Although investment demand remains somewhat lukewarm, Minter said gold investors should be content that at least the selling has stopped.

Minter explained that since April 2022, ETF investors have sold around 750 tonnes of gold, creating a massive supply in the marketplace that was met with two years of historic demand from central banks.

Minter pointed out that central bank demand hasn’t gone away; however, the supply of gold has dried up as ETF selling has slowed to a trickle. Although central bank gold buying has slowed in recent weeks, Minter said the overall trend in official purchases remains higher.

“If you were a prudent central bank fund manager in some of these countries, you would diversify away from the dollar to reduce your risk, plain and simple,” he said.

However, the broader question remains: when will Western investors embrace gold again? Minter said that he expects Western investors are waiting for an actual rate cut from the Federal Reserve.

Despite new insight from a bevy of central bankers last week, the Federal Reserve has remained somewhat coy on the start of the next easing cycle. Some monetary policy committee members have said they would be reluctant to cut interest rates as inflation remains elevated.

While the timing of the Federal Reserve’s easing cycle remains a moving target, Minter said that there is no question that interest rates will have to come down.

With credit card debt at record highs, insurance premiums rising across the board, and government debt growing out of control, the U.S. economy can’t afford to keep interest rates in restrictive territory much longer, Minter said.

“The Fed has made enough mistakes in the last three years that I think they're very cautious not to make another,” he said. “If you were the Chair, you would have to know the impact of the magnitude of the rate rises you've done in a short time will have on the economy. This kind of monetary policy usually breaks something in the economy on a structural level, and you have to play catch up really quickly. You certainly wouldn't risk much higher unemployment just to bring housing inflation down a few tenths of a percent.”

Even if the Fed holds rates unchanged through the summer, Minter said that he still expects to see rate cuts and the start of a new easing cycle before the end of the year.

Since holding support at $2,000 in early February, gold prices have rallied nearly 19%, with prices hitting a new intraday-day at $2372.50 an ounce early Monday. However, Minter said there is still significant value in the gold market even after this rally.

“Regardless of timing or magnitude, the next Fed funds move is a cut, and historically, that led to 57%, 235%, and 69% gold price increases in 2000, 2006, and 2018,” he said. “Even with prices up 18%, we haven’t seen anything yet.”

Kitco Media

Neils Christensen

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

What Is Altcoin Season? When Will It Start? Or Is It Already Here?

What Is Altcoin Season? When Will It Start? Or Is It Already Here?

Altcoin season, a term on the lips of many cryptocurrency enthusiasts since Bitcoin's recent surge to unprecedented heights, is a phenomenon many have eagerly anticipated. However, despite this anticipation, only a select few coins and tokens, along with many meme coins, have experienced substantial growth. This has led to speculation that altcoin season may never arrive, as funds flowing into spot Bitcoin ETFs may not be redirected towards the broader cryptocurrency market. But is this the full story?

With the invaluable insights of some highly credible crypto experts, this article takes a deep dive into the current state of the cryptocurrency market. It focuses on the 'altcoin season' concept and its potential impact on market trends. The article explores why altcoin season has yet to occur and predicts when it may begin. It also offers insights on how to recognize its onset. Additionally, the article highlights the types of alternative cryptocurrencies (altcoins) that may be worth watching during this period.

The Concept of Altcoin Season

Firstly, let's touch on the concept of altcoin season, a term that lacks a universally accepted definition. Some assume it refers to a period where numerous altcoins are experiencing a surge in value, with many believing that it's already underway. Given the recent performance of certain altcoins, one could argue that it's already here. However, this definition falls short of accurately capturing the concept, so here’s a more precise and nuanced explanation.

An altcoin season is an extended timeframe during which most alternative coins exhibit notable outperformance compared to Bitcoin. This can be gauged by analyzing the price of an altcoin with Bitcoin, for example, ETH/BTC. When assessing the BTC pair for various altcoins, it becomes evident that their performance has not been particularly strong. However, this does not imply that they have not experienced price increases in fiat currency; rather, it indicates that their gains have been comparatively lower when measured against Bitcoin. 

The current situation with ETH and BTC is a significant development in the cryptocurrency market. ETH's value has decreased compared to BTC, which has raised concerns among traders and investors. Historically, increases in BTC's value have often been followed by a shift in investments towards alternative cryptocurrencies, leading to a period where most altcoins perform better than BTC. 


Source: Coinmarketcap

In the past, the trend has been to invest in ETH and then move on to other major alternative cryptocurrencies, followed by mid-cap and small-cap altcoins. It is important to note that this progression is not always precise but generally aligns with the idea that investors gravitate towards more speculative crypto assets as market momentum continues. Interestingly, in the current scenario, there has been limited shifting of funds into ETH, as indicated by the underperformance of the ETH/BTC pair mentioned earlier.

Furthermore, it appears that the influx of capital did not favor midcaps and small-caps but instead directed attention towards micro-cap meme coins for speculative purposes. It is important to note that while certain altcoins like Solana's SOL have shown impressive performance compared to BTC, most altcoins, including ETH, have not surpassed BTC's growth. This suggests that the altcoin season may have yet to arrive fully.

As indicated earlier, cryptocurrencies with smaller market capitalizations tend to be riskier. This is because crypto with a smaller market cap has the potential to experience more significant and rapid price increases compared to those with larger market caps. However, on the flip side, small-cap cryptocurrencies are also prone to more substantial drops in value, highlighting the risk/reward ratio. 

The notable 100x returns often associated with certain altcoins are typically achievable with those that have smaller market caps, explaining the hype around the altcoin season. Nevertheless, there are indications that the current cryptocurrency market cycle differs from previous ones, which could have significant implications for the returns on altcoins.

The Question on Everyone's Mind: When Will Altcoin Season Arrive?

Many wonder why the current market cycle hasn't followed the same pattern as previous ones, with altcoins yet to take center stage. To understand this, we must first acknowledge the unique factor setting this cycle apart: spot Bitcoin ETFs.  As discussed earlier, some believe these ETFs are hindering the rotation into altcoins, as investors cannot easily switch from ETFs to altcoins, at least in theory. However, some investors may be cashing out their ETF gains and moving their funds to cryptocurrency exchanges like Coinbase, where they can invest in altcoins. 

The catch is that most investors in spot Bitcoin ETFs are not your average retail investors but seasoned institutional investors. These institutional investors, also known as TradFi whales, have a significant influence on the market. As a result, their preferences for alternative cryptocurrencies may diverge from those of the typical crypto enthusiast. Notably, there has been substantial institutional interest in SOL, which could explain its outperformance compared to BTC. 

However, the crypto market is not solely composed of institutional investors. There are two other types of crypto investors: crypto whales and retail investors. Crypto whales, which are large holders of cryptocurrencies, have been the primary influencers in the crypto market so far. Their shift from Bitcoin to alternative coins has led to past cycles in altcoins, while retail investors have pushed these coins to their peak values. Put simply, the crypto market has not lost anything. It has merely introduced a new main character, figuratively speaking. 

The lack of an alt season is not caused by the introduction of ETFs but rather by the actions of crypto whales and retail investors. The analysts at Coinbureau suggest that these crypto whales are not shifting their investments or rotating into altcoins because there currently needs to be more retail investors interested in purchasing them.


Source: Crypto Max on X

Numerous indicators suggest that retail investors are gradually becoming more interested in cryptocurrency despite their limited participation in the current market upswing. This is evidenced by increased retail trading activity on cryptocurrency exchanges, the growing popularity of crypto exchange apps, rising search volumes for crypto-related terms, and heightened social media engagement with crypto content. However, these metrics have not reached the levels indicating a massive influx of new retail investors into the cryptocurrency market.

The crucial factor here is the influx of new retail investors. While millions of retail investors from previous cycles are still active or returning, we need to see more new entrants into the market. This is a significant concern, as altcoins rely heavily on new investors to drive their growth and create upward momentum. As a retail investor, you can influence the altcoin season. There need to be marginal buyers.

As Coinbureau states, “We need new people for our altcoin bags to pump, probably because most of us have already allocated as much as we can to our favorite coins and tokens. In the absence of these new people, there's not that much for us to do except speculate on memecoins, and it's quite possible that the memecoin pumps we've seen have been coordinated by the crypto whales. They probably know that the only retail investors around right now are experienced enough to use DEXs.” 

The Onset of Altcoin Season

After analyzing the delay in the arrival of altcoin season, the next question is when we can expect it to begin. The straightforward answer is that it will start when a sufficient number of retail investors take notice. This will prompt crypto whales to shift their focus from Bitcoin to altcoins that retail investors will then eagerly buy into, leading to a chain reaction of FOMO (fear of missing out). However, a more in-depth analysis, which necessitates a look back at the previous cycle, reveals a more intricate scenario. Most of us envision the upcoming altcoin season as a repeat of the last cycle, but the reality may be more complex. 

The issue lies in the significant differences observed in the previous cycle. Due to a worldwide pandemic, billions of individuals were confined to their homes while a few hundred million received a stimulus payment, providing them additional funds. These events led to widespread speculation in both stocks and cryptocurrencies. Today, the situation is starkly contrasted as interest rates across various nations are at their highest levels in years. Unofficial inflation rates are soaring in most countries, reaching double digits. Several countries are experiencing or nearing recession.

Above all, most individuals are reportedly accumulating unprecedented levels of debt to maintain their standard of living. This trend starkly contrasts with the circumstances observed during the previous alt season. A positive aspect is that the prolonged persistence of these conditions may prompt governments and central banks to provide comparable forms of economic support, never mind the possibility of an existential shock. 

This means that there will likely come a time when economic conditions mirror those seen during the pandemic, with similar fiscal and monetary support levels. The exact timing is uncertain, but it may take a significant event to prompt such action. Identical to past patterns, this could cause a brief decline in cryptocurrency and other asset values, followed by a stabilization period and a sharp price increase as the stimulus takes effect.

If the current state of the market persists, altcoins may suffer under unfavorable circumstances. If trends continue, including high interest rates, rising inflation, recurring recessions, and mounting retail debt, the subsequent altcoin season may fall short of expectations. It's essential to recognize that the cryptocurrency market has undergone significant changes since the previous cycle, with factors beyond spot Bitcoin ETFs contributing to its evolution. 

Regulations in the US, UK, and other countries have made it more difficult for retail investors to reach offshore trading platforms where highly speculative altcoins are traded. The upcoming EU stablecoins regulations are anticipated to impact the cryptocurrency market significantly. It has been announced that USD stablecoins will no longer be allowed in the EU by the end of the year, potentially reducing the options for retail investors to trade cryptocurrencies.

Identifying the Arrival of Altcoin Season

To determine the onset of the altcoin season, keep a close eye on several key indicators. These include retail trading volume, the popularity of crypto exchange apps, Google searches, and social media views related to cryptocurrency. When you observe a steady increase in these metrics, alt season is likely imminent. Interestingly, there are signs that this trend may already be underway. For instance, search queries related to buying cryptocurrency have started to rise after years of stagnation, although they still have a long way to go before reaching their previous peak.


Source: Google Trends

The current market dynamics are making it challenging to determine whether we are witnessing the inception of a new alt season or a fleeting speculative surge. A valuable approach to shed light on this puzzle is examining how cryptocurrency projects promote themselves, specifically during periods of heightened attention. A typical pattern among cryptocurrency projects is to unveil significant announcements when public interest is at its peak.

There have been instances where crypto projects have postponed significant updates and announcements due to a lack of interest from retail investors. Despite this, numerous crypto projects have been making notable announcements, which could suggest the beginning of a new altcoin season. However, these announcements have not resulted in significant speculative buying, indicating that retail investors remain scarce.


Source: CoinMarketCal

As the popularity of cryptocurrency projects grows, you may notice a surge in big announcements and subsequent price increases for their coins or tokens. This is often a sign that retail investors have entered the market. When these altcoin announcements start making headlines in mainstream news, it could indicate that the market is nearing its peak. 

Some of you have probably encountered additional key indicators, like inquiries from friends and family regarding the crypto market or, worse, seeking advice on investing in meme coins. However, these signals may not hold much weight unless individuals actively invest. Suppose widespread media coverage of altcoins is not leading to a substantial market increase, and your acquaintances are not showing significant interest. In that case, it may not truly be an alt season. 

A possible indicator of an impending alt season is to evaluate whether these signs are present when, based on historical patterns, an altcoin season would be expected to occur from a cycle perspective. However, this can be difficult to determine as the introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs has disrupted the typical cycle. For reference, the current phase of the cycle should resemble the early 2020 period, characterized by gradually increasing prices followed by a sudden crash triggered by an unexpected event before ultimately continuing their upward trend.

It's worth considering that our timeline may be advancing at an accelerated pace. Specifically, we could be closer to the late 2020 stage of the crypto market cycle, irrespective of the introduction of Bitcoin ETFs. With two completed crypto cycles (2017 and 2021) under their belts, millions of individuals are now familiar with the narrative and its subsequent developments.


Source: Bitcoin News on X

The impact is that we won't have to wait 12 months for the altcoin season to begin like we did in 2020. Instead, it could start in just a few months. However, this is based on the assumption that we're on an accelerated timeline. It's possible that cryptocurrency is still following the same schedule, which means we might be ahead of schedule for alt season.

Which Altcoins Should Be Monitored

Which altcoins should you watch this season? I concur with Coinbureau that it might be ideal to start building up your portfolio if we are in the early stages of the altcoin season. However, it's essential to note that this is not financial advice, and it's equally possible it's not the best time to do so.

Coinbureau analysts suggest that the altcoins you must watch this season will be the most accessible to retail investors.  As mentioned earlier, EU regulations and, consequently, the structure of the crypto market will ensure that most retail investing will take place on onshore exchanges like Coinbase. In light of this potential scenario, focusing on altcoins listed on Coinbase may be prudent.

This is connected to a previous point about market capitalization. The higher the market cap, the lower the risk and the potential reward. The smaller the market cap, the bigger the risk, but the bigger the reward. Selecting a cryptocurrency with a lower price tag may also be advantageous. Many individual investors assume that a lower price indicates the possibility of more significant price increases, but the market cap is the most important. Therefore, by choosing a low price and market cap cryptocurrency, you can establish some solid fundamentals, often referred to by some influencers as "pumpamentals."

While being listed on Coinbase and having a low price point and market capitalization can benefit an altcoin, more is needed to guarantee success. For an altcoin to truly thrive, it must fit into a broader, bullish narrative that resonates with the average retail investor. This article explores the dominant narratives likely to drive the next bull market.


Image: Markethive.com

Researching the tokenomics of the crypto you want to invest in is vital to ensure it is genuine and has maximum potential. This involves examining the future circulation of coins or tokens, as you wouldn't want to invest in a promising altcoin only to face a sudden sell-off by the developers and their venture capital supporters. Also, you need to select a smart contract cryptocurrency on which the most promising tokens are trading. 


Image: Cointelegraph

It is essential to understand that holding onto a promising altcoin for a longer term could be beneficial if you enter the market at the right time. Numerous cryptocurrency enthusiasts can confirm that they would have been equally successful today if they had kept their altcoins during the market downturn. Cryptocurrency, at its core, is designed to revolutionize various systems, so it's important to have a long-term perspective on your investments.

Although many of these systems and their associated projects may fail, a few will endure. The ones that survive have the potential to become extremely valuable, possibly even worth trillions of dollars in the future, much like Bitcoin, which is currently valued at over $1 trillion. It is crucial to note that BTC boasts the lengthiest and most proven track record among all coins and tokens, rendering it the most secure cryptocurrency to retain in comparison.

Other cryptos will more than likely someday achieve the same safe haven status as BTC, so considering all the key indicators along with a crypto’s community, utility and purpose, ecosystem, and solutions it offers in the spectrum, it shouldn’t be too hard to work out which ones to watch out for. For that large-cap security, you might want to consider investing in the original cryptocurrency that has the potential to become the global reserve currency

This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

 


 

Editor and Chief Markethive: Deb Williams. (Australia) I thrive on progress and champion freedom of speech.  I embrace "Change" with a passion, and my purpose in life is to enlighten people to accept and move forward with enthusiasm. Find me at my Markethive Profile Page | My Twitter Account | and my LinkedIn Profile.

 

 

 

 

 

Tim Moseley

Gold’s 2024 price ceiling is now the floor silver is approaching sweet spot’ for investors MKS Pamp

Gold’s 2024 price ceiling is now the floor, silver is approaching ‘sweet spot’ for investors – MKS Pamp

The first quarter of 2024 was all about gold, according to an updated outlook from MKS Pamp. “We were not bullish enough Gold in Q1’24 and were too bullish Silver and Platinum,” the analysts said, “but the relative outperformance between Gold and the white metals (Silver & PGMs) should compress in Q2’24 & Q3’24.”

In their recently published Precious Metals Outlook 2024 – Revised Forecasts, the Swiss precious metals giant broke down the sector’s performance in detail, and laid out their adjusted predictions for the remainder of the year.

 

The analysts wrote that gold has shown sensitivity to central banks’ tolerance of higher rates to address sticky inflation.

“Original Forecast $2050/oz (mildly bullish vs the street) is now upgraded to $2200/oz (outright bullish) as Gold sniffs out a collective turn in major CB policy willing to accept higher for long inflation, amidst solid physical demand,” they wrote. “Our original 2024 forecast published in January was $2050/oz (high-low range of $1900-$2200/oz), hinging on the Fed cutting rates as the global economy slowed. We also expected new all-time highs. So far Gold has already taken out our high price forecast of $2200/oz with the timing as expected as Gold preempts a Fed rate cutting cycle, while Central Bank and physical demand remains relentless.”

They noted that one of their bull cases was based on “Asian or CB physical demand being stronger than expected” and this “has played out (earlier than expected) and is the game changing development behind higher [price] floors.”

Among the factors that did not align with their original forecasts were interest rate cuts being pushed further back while the U.S. economy continued to outperform. “We also expected an underinvested investor community to subscribe in a meaningful way and drive the price rerating which has not been the case (so far),” they said. “We did not expect the emergence of an accelerated physical purchasing program” driven by runaway Chinese demand, which has propelled “shallower dips and a persistent rally that has not been short-lived as in the past 4 peaks seen post-COVID.”

They also pointed out that “both producer-related and secondary supply has not reengaged (as expected) at price peaks, and that lack of structural selling has allowed Gold to float higher.”

The updated forecasts now have gold averaging $2,200 per ounce in 2024, with a new higher floor of $2,000. “We also now expect Gold to print bull market gains in 2024 that is emblematic of past rate cutting cycles; that equates to $2475/oz (and almost $2600/oz if one accounts for the annual cost of carry,” they wrote.

Among the risks to their updated bullish forecasts, MKS Pamp notes that now everyone is bullish. “Banks are revising up forecasts and consensus for Gold has shifted in one direction,” they said, but offered the caveat that market positioning is not yet reflecting this. “Western investor positioning still remains underweight on a long-term historical Gold basis, vs the liquidity & holdings in other asset classes and commodities remain undersubscribed as an asset class.”

Other threats include “large Gold holders (including Central Banks) monetizing Gold if 1) they are forced to (eg: the financing of hot & cold wars), 2) Gold loses appeal as a geopolitical or inflation hedge and/or 3) Gold comes under direct sanction and policy risk,” as well as the potential for “strong secondary physical sales from retail coin & bar holders, globally, which has not been ignited.”

Turning to silver, the analysts wrote that a sweet spot is beginning to emerge, but investor demand must increase to get it there.

“Silver continues to have an attractive micro/fundamental story heading into a collective Central Bank rate cutting cycle (as is the case with Copper and to a lesser degree Platinum),” they said. “The market understands the structural supply challenges in these cyclical transition metals, but the demand story isn’t materializing the way bulls think it should, including investment demand which remains static.”

The analysts acknowledged that investors don’t have the patience to eat monthly losses as they wait for moves in a high interest rate environment, which helps to explain why silver and the PGMs are so under owned, but supply constraints will still push prices higher.

“Silver moved into a structural deficit in 2021 driven largely by energy-related industry demand (PV, auto etc) and has posted deficits averaging ~250mn oz the past 3 years including 2024,” they wrote. “While above ground stocks have managed to fulfill those annual deficits, known inventories – the free float – is back down near cyclical lows. The case for a ‘gradually then suddenly’ setup is developing and thus we marginally hike our already quite bullish forecast ($25/oz) to $25.50 and expect the Gold/Silver ratio to trade toward the lower end (~86) of its YTD range.”

Kitco Media

Ernest Hoffman

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Gold price sees another 5 rally this week as geopolitical uncertainty drives the market to touch 2350

Gold price sees another 5% rally this week as geopolitical uncertainty drives the market to touch $2350

he gold market continues its unstoppable run to record highs as it touches an all-time high of $2,350 an ounce ahead of the weekend.

Gold’s latest rally comes after the U.S. economy created 303,000 jobs in March, significantly beating expectations. At the same time, unemployment dropped to 3.8%. Despite the robust job growth, wages were relatively muted, rising 0.3%, in line with expectations.

Economists described the latest nonfarm payrolls data as a “blockbuster report,” which supports higher bond yields and relative strength of the U.S. dollar. Bond yields have risen as the market continues to shift their expectations regarding the start of the Federal Reserve’s easing cycle.

This past week, members of the Federal Open Market Committee have been fairly evasive on the topic of interest rate cuts. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets see a 54% chance of a rate cut in June. Last week, markets were pricing in a more than 60% chance of easing.

Analysts note this should be a hostile environment for gold; however, June gold futures last traded at $2,345.50 an ounce, up 1.60% on the day. The precious metal is up nearly 5% from last Friday.

Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, said that he suspects gold is attracting some safe-haven flows as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East heat up because of Israel’s war with Hamas in Gaza.

This week, Commander of Iran's Revolutionary Guard, Gen. Hossein Salami, vowed retaliation after an airstrike on an Iranian diplomatic compound in Syria killed seven members of the military group, including two generals.

In a social media post, Marin Katusa, founder of Katusa Research, gold’s safe-haven bid.

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Experts even more bullish on gold than retail

Experts even more bullish on gold than retail

Kitco NEWS has a diverse team of journalists reporting on the economy, stock markets, commodities, cryptocurrencies, mining and metals with accuracy and objectivity. Our goal is to help people make informed market decisions through in-depth reporting, daily market roundups, interviews with prominent industry figures, comprehensive coverage (often exclusive) of important industry events and analyses of market-affecting developments.

As has been the case for much of the new year, this week once again witnessed another steady climb in gold prices. Following last week’s spike to new all-time highs around $2,220 per ounce ahead of the Easter long weekend, the yellow metal shot to $2,265 just before the clock struck midnight on Sunday, and even a steady stream of hawkish Fed speakers couldn’t hold it back, as it set new successive highs as the week wore on.

Friday morning’s nonfarm payrolls report provided the exclamation mark to conclude a dramatic narrative for the precious metal, as even a blowout jobs report, which could serve to delay rate cuts even further than the Fed had threatened, was no match for gold’s upward momentum.

Buoyed by the escalation prospect of multiple global conflicts, spot gold saw its strongest move of the week, settling above $2,330 per ounce for the first time in history.

The latest Kitco News Weekly Gold Survey showed Wall Street sentiment outstripping even the unsinkable optimism of Main Street traders next week as fears of a pullback from the latest new highs were drowned out by still greater fears of geopolitical turmoil.

Adam Button, head of currency strategy at Forexlive.com, said whatever qualms traders may have about gold at these levels, resistance is futile. “Gold is stretched but the trend is impossible to fight right now,” he said. “Asia is buying almost every day.”

Darin Newsom, Senior Market Analyst at Barchart.com, said he’ll also be going with the flow. “It’s a tough call again this week, but for now I’ll stick with Newton’s First Law of Motion applied to markets: A trending market will stay in that trend until acted upon by an outside force, with that outside force usually investment money,” Newsom said. “For now, money seems to be flowing into gold, for whatever reason.”

“Could I make a technical argument the market could go lower next week? Yes, but gold is in a phase at this time where charts don’t mean anything,” he added. “It’s all fundamentals, and for now, central banks around the world continue to buy.”

Adrian Day, President of Adrian Day Asset Management, said the demand now extends beyond sovereign purchases and Asian investors, and he sees no signs of it slowing just yet.

“Notwithstanding Western investors generally not participating in the gold market – as evidenced by ETF outflows, low coins sales – there are clearly some big fish in the market buying and likely not only central banks,” he said. “Wealthy individuals and families, as well as savvy investors, are accumulating in response to awareness of the growing fragility in the global financial, economic, and geopolitical system.”

“As the financial markets stumble, more investors will turn to gold.”

SIA Wealth Management Chief Market Strategist Colin Cieszynski expects further volatility from gold prices, which is why he’s adopted a wait-and-see approach.

“I'm going to stay neutral,” Cieszynski said. “To me, gold still looks like it's had a big run and Treasury yields are still climbing, and that's going to push up the dollar. But on the other hand, gold also has these big tailwinds behind it, and that's why I went neutral for next week.”

He also pointed to next week’s U.S. consumer price report as something that could go either way. “Is it soon enough that we're going to start seeing the higher oil prices work their way in, or is that another month down the road? I'm, not sure,” he said. “There's a bunch of factors that say gold should go higher. There's a bunch of factors that say gold could go down a little bit. It's going to probably be a tug-of-war kind of week, is what I'm expecting.”

“My feeling of neutrality for gold is less about gold itself and it's more about everything going on around it,” he added. “So even though gold itself is looking good, I think gold could have some pretty big moves in both directions depending on what happens around it. I'm neutral not because I think it's going nowhere, but more because I'm not convinced on which way it's going to end up at the end of the week.”

“If you go bullish, you could look smart for half the week,” Cieszynski concluded. “If you go bearish, you could look smart for half the week.”

This week, 12 Wall Street analysts participated in the Kitco News Gold Survey, and their responses showed that bullish sentiment has fully captured the institutional imagination. Nine experts, or 75%, expected to see gold prices climb even higher next week, while only one analyst, representing a paltry 8%, predicted a price decline. The remaining two experts, or 17%, said headwinds and tailwinds were too close to call next week.

Meanwhile, 240 votes were cast in Kitco’s online poll, with 75% of Main Street investors anticipating further gains or sideways trading. 159 retail traders, representing 65%, looked for gold to rise next week. Another 41, or 17%, predicted it would be lower, while 40 respondents, or 17%, said they were neutral on gold’s near-term prospects.

Next week is a relatively thin one as far as economic data is concerned, though military and political conflict should provide plenty of grist for gold’s mill. Highlights include Wednesday’s U.S. CPI report for March, followed by PPI and weekly jobless claims on Thursday, and Friday’s preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey.

Markets will also be watching the Bank of Canada’s and the European Central Bank’s monetary policy decisions on Wednesday and Thursday respectively, as there’s always a chance they may preempt the Fed with a rate cut.

Marc Chandler, Managing Director at Bannockburn Global Forex, doesn’t see the coming week’s consumer data slowing gold.

“Rising rates and US dollar have not dented gold’s surge,” Chandler said. “Next week’s US CPI should be firm but the demand for gold does not seem related to US inflation. Rather there appears to be a strong retail bid from Asia, notably Chinese investors and a few other countries with capital controls and/or shaky financial systems.”

Chandler said that trend followers and momentum traders also seem to be participating. “The price action reflects buying on pullbacks and breakouts, hallmarks of a bull market,” he added. “As the yellow metal is in uncharted waters, tough to talk about resistance. Maybe potential toward $2350. Support looks like $2225-50.”

Daniel Pavilonis, Senior Commodities Broker at RJO Futures, was parsing the gold rally even as it set new highs on Friday.

“I think some of the buying is the anticipation of rate cuts, even though we had a strong jobs report,” Pavilonis said. “I think the market is still expecting mild rate cuts going into elections or right around elections at a time when we're still seeing sticky inflation.”

He said the other driver of this move is what's going on with Israel and Iran, and the possibility of that conflict escalating further.

“Iran being backed, or being partnered up with, Russia, China, India. Russia has ships in the Black Sea, and oil prices spiking could cause further inflation at the same time when the Fed, if they don't cut rates, at the very least I think that they would just pause and let inflation run.”

Pavilonis said that the political realities of the United States during an election year are beginning to weigh heavily on markets.

“These guys, Democrat or Republican, want to keep their jobs,” he said. “I think that's part of it. It's the culmination of statistics, this being a strong year under these circumstances, the probability of rate cuts, or at the very least pausing if we do see escalation geopolitically, which would raise energy prices substantially… it's all bullish for gold.”

Zooming in on the near term, Pavilonis said he believes this week’s gold rally, and the moves on Thursday and Friday in particular, is largely on the back of geopolitics. “Iran basically said that they're going to come back and retaliate against Israel,” he said. “Is that going to be within Israel, or is that going to be just Israeli targets around Israel? But that is the expectation, and I think that would be bullish for gold.”

He also believes that Friday’s strong nonfarm payrolls report hasn't ruled out rate cuts either. “That's still on the table,” he said. “I don't think the Fed wants to linguistically condition the market for rate cuts, and then it doesn't happen.”

Pavilonis said that a big part of this calculation is the fact that there's no selling coming into the market despite this week’s steady stream of hawkish comments from multiple Fed speakers. “Now you're adding some geopolitical issues going on with the Middle East,” he said. “And with Ukraine, Blinken coming out and saying that Ukraine's going to join NATO, this thing has a possibility of escalating.”

“I think under these circumstances, that's very bullish for gold in the near term.”

Pavilonis added that if nothing kinetic happens over the weekend, he thinks commodities could see a pullback early in the week. “Energy prices would sell off if there's nothing, and then you might see gold take a little bit of a breather,” he said. “I think gold may come back to a nice round number like $2,000.”

And Kitco Senior Analyst Jim Wyckoff still sees potential gains for gold prices next week. “Steady-higher, as technicals remain bullish,” he said.

Spot gold last traded at $2,325.18 per ounce at the time of writing, up 1.48% on the day and 4.09% on the week.

Kitco Media

Ernest Hoffman

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Analyst Highlights Encouraging Metric for Solana Bulls Amid Calls For New SOL All-Time High Price

Analyst Highlights Encouraging Metric for Solana Bulls Amid Calls For New SOL All-Time High Price

By Newton Gitonga – April 5, 2024

Following a strong quarter, Solana (SOL) has been the subject of intense scrutiny and analysis by traders and analysts alike, even as the cryptocurrency tries to recapture its November 2021 all-time highs.

This week, Solana’s price has pulled back slightly after hitting a high of $210, prompting questions about its future trajectory. Meanwhile, analysts have been quick to chime in on the situation, with popular chartist Decentrader highlighting a potentially encouraging metric for Solana bulls.

On Wednesday, the pundit noted that Solana’s funding rates have dropped significantly, which could be interpreted as a positive sign for bullish investors.

“Decision time here for Solana. Price has pulled back to Sniper support at $183. If current levels do not hold the major support area is sub-$150. After funding rates had climbed too high, they have now dropped after a lot of leverage traders got liquidated on the down move,” He tweeted, adding, “This is one potentially encouraging metric for the bulls.”

Adding to the analysis, trader X-Istan pointed out key resistance and support levels for Solana. While facing resistance at around $205, he noted that Solana could find support at $180, with a bounce potentially signalling bullish momentum towards $267. However, he warned that a break below $180 might lead to a drop to $147, indicating a potential bearish scenario.

Despite these fluctuations, Solana has maintained a bullish trend overall. Its resilience in the face of market volatility suggests that the bulls are still in control, pushing steadily to reclaim the monthly high of $210.

However, challenges lie ahead for Solana, particularly in low buying volume and lacklustre buying activity. Nonetheless, the absence of bearish signals indicates that any setbacks in the market are likely to be temporary, with the bulls expected to prevail in the long run.

Looking back at Solana’s performance since late 2022, the cryptocurrency has experienced remarkable growth, with its price increasing by more than 25x. From a technical standpoint, Solana appears to be just getting started, with promising prospects for further appreciation in value.

While Solana faces short-term challenges, its long-term prospects remain optimistic. At press time, SOL was trading at $173, reflecting a 6.90% drop over the past 24 hours, as per CoinMarketCap data.

DISCLAIMER The views expressed in the article are wholly those of the author and do not represent those of, nor should they be attributed to, ZyCrypto. This article is not meant to give financial advice. Please carry out your own research before investing in any of the various cryptocurrencies available.

The original article written by Newton Gitonga and posted on ZyCrypto.com.

Article reposted on Markethive by Jeffrey Sloe

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Tim Moseley

The Artist that came out of the Winter