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Will this silver and gold price rally last? Here’s what analysts are saying

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Will this silver and gold price rally last? Here's what analysts are saying

In a surprise u-turn this week, silver and gold are trading at 3-month and 3-week highs, respectively. But is this a sustainable rally or just a short squeeze?

Even though silver has outperformed gold this week, both precious metals saw impressive performance. Some main drivers were a weaker U.S. dollar, falling U.S. Treasury yields, higher crude oil, and renewed safe-haven buying amid shifting Fed rate hike expectations and disappointing macro data.

"There have been vicious reversals in precious metals, with Gold +5%, Silver +14%, Platinum +9% and Palladium +11% the past five days," said MKS PAMP metals strategist Nicky Shiels. "Gold has essentially erased 1/4 of the downtrend channel worth $460 (from March '22 peak to its September tough), which started from its invasion/war peak price at $2,070/oz; silver has clawed back 2/5th (in 3 days!) of the same downtrend channel."

The United Nations also spoke up this week, urging the Federal Reserve and other central banks to ease up on rate hikes, warning that tighter monetary policies are pushing the global economy into a recession.

"There's still time to step back from the edge of recession," UNCTAD Secretary-General Rebeca Grynspan said. "But the current course of action is hurting the most vulnerable, especially in developing countries and risks tipping the world into a global recession."

Gold climbed around $65 this week, with December Comex gold futures last trading at $1,733.50 an ounce. And silver jumped about $2.25, with December silver futures last at $21.10.

This is an important technical turnaround for gold after six straight months of losses.

"Market speculation around the Fed adopting a less aggressive approach on rate hikes has also sweetened appetite for zero-yielding gold," said FXTM's senior research analyst Lukman Otunuga. "Looking at the technical picture, the breakout above $1,700 may open the doors towards $1,724 and $1,760, respectively. Should prices dip back under $1,700, the next key levels of support can be found at $1,680 and $1,655."

Also helping the precious metals was the reversal of U.K. governments tax plan and fears around Credit Suisse, noted Shiels.

"What is perhaps overlooked is that this massive reversal in risk assets, precious metals & bonds, all started when risk sentiment was max bearish when the BOE intervened to cap rates (last week). There is a growing acceptance that the BOE is not going to be the last central bank to cap rates, and eventually, the U.S. will follow suit," she wrote Tuesday.

However, some analysts are warning the price rally in precious metals is a temporary one – just a short squeeze after a build-up of short positions.

"We see gold losing steam and again drifting toward our target of $1,580/oz over the coming months, as the Fed continues to stick to its hawkish plan to move the Fed Funds above the 4.5% mark," said TD Securities head of commodity strategy Bart Melek. "As such, rates on the short end of the curve will very likely keep rising from current levels and should stay there for the balance of 2023 … Real rates, which are the key drivers of gold, will also rise even faster. This will increase the carry costs and opportunity cost relative to risk-free Treasuries."

The short-term direction will mostly depend on the employment report out of the U.S. this Friday. A higher-than-expected number of jobs added in September would trigger a more hawkish re-pricing of rate hike expectations and would weigh on gold.

"The U.S. domestic story remains rather solid, leaving the Fed tightening prospects alive even if markets have recently revised the expected terminal rate to sub 4.50% levels. We see Friday's payrolls report as a potential trigger for a fresh hawkish re-pricing, and a positive event for the dollar," said ING FX strategists Tuesday.

On the other hand, if the jobs report is weaker-than-expected, rate hike expectations would drop and favor higher precious metals prices.

"It is too early to say a Fed pivot is justified, but if we continue to see a couple sharp drops with job openings, that will wake up the doves in the FOMC," said OANDA senior market analyst Edward Moya. "Gold's bottom is in place now that the U.S. is showing clear signs the labor market is softening. The key for gold will be the nonfarm payroll report. As long as we don't see an extraordinary strong print, gold should remain supported here and poised to test the $1,750 region."

By Anna Golubova

For Kitco News

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

Tim Moseley

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Does This New Trend Correlate With This Flagrant Prediction?

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Does This New Trend Correlate With This Flagrant Prediction?

By now, many of us have heard of the declaration, “You’ll own nothing and be happy,” cited by Klaus Schwab of the World Economic Forum and all part of The Great Reset. Yet, only a few believe this infamous prediction will actually become a reality. Sadly, our ownership of things is vanishing, and many of us unwittingly embrace this new normal. 

There is an alarming trend permeating every sector of the economy, and in this article, we’ll cover where this trend came from and why cryptocurrency could be the only defense. The following will explain how “they” plan to make you happy while owning nothing, and there can be no doubt it’s nothing to be happy about. 

The Ownership Predicament

One of the things we all believe we own is our mobile phone. An essential item that all of us have and these days has become an extension of ourselves, and it’s difficult to function without it. So, the question is, how often do you need to change or upgrade your phone due to poor performance? 

Statistics show that we change our phones every 2 to 3 years, consistent with the battery's life span. A solution to the periodical upgrades would be just to install a new battery so you can enjoy your phone for another two years until you need to replace the battery again, and so on. Well, that’s the theory.


Image source: rapidrepair.in

In practice, however, changing the battery is not so simple and can damage the phone, providing you can actually get a replacement battery. In the case of newer iPhone models, the phone will detect when you've replaced the battery and give you all manner of warning messages, which push you to go to the Apple Store for an extensive repair, which could cost as much as a new phone.

Now, critics of this scheme have accurately observed that the inability to independently open, modify or repair a device that you own means that you don't actually own it because ownership literally means the ability to do all of the above and more. 

These and other issues have given rise to a global movement called Right To Repair, which has pressured Apple and other tech giants to make repairs more accessible, albeit to a limited degree due to the lobbying power these corporations wield. 

However, the right to repair doesn't entirely eliminate the underlying ownership issue. Did you know manufacturers slow down a smartphone’s performance to force you to buy a new one? 

Samsung was fined for this practice in 2018, and as usual with all the big tech companies, Samsung’s fine amounted to nothing more than a rap over the knuckles compared to the profits it probably made from artificially slowing down phones. It’s something that the company is allegedly still doing today, and this level of control negates any aspect of ownership. 


Solana co-founder Anatoly Yakovenko with Solana smartphone. Image: Solana Labs/Decrypt

On a positive note, Solana has developed a smartphone that has unique functionalities setting it apart from other phones. It is a web3-enabled device that features tight integration with the Solana blockchain. Anatoly Yakovenko, the co-founder of Solana, believes the key to unlocking the potential of crypto is to bring it into everyone’s hands. Solana Mobile bridges this gap by allowing easy access to the world of crypto and web3 and provides greater adoption and understanding of crypto. 

The project is an open-source platform that aims for widespread adoption and seeks collaboration from other smartphone manufacturers. If these companies believe crypto is important enough, then billions of users can have the opportunity for self-custody. This has the potential to disrupt the industry, creating a new ecosystem that is not burdened by legacy software and hopefully minimizes artificial manipulation.

Planned Obsolescence 

The practice of forcing people to upgrade through some nefarious means has found its way into everything from household appliances to hospital equipment, and it’s not a new practice. It’s been around for nearly 100 years, known as Planned Obsolescence. The term was coined by an American real estate broker named Bernard London in a paper titled “Ending the Depression through Planned Obsolescence," published in 1932.

Bernard said that the Great Depression made no sense because “factories, warehouses, and fields are still intact and are ready to produce in unlimited quantities, but the urge to go ahead has been paralyzed by a decline in buying power and, by extension, a decline in demand.” Given this situation, Bernard proposed the following solution;

“I would have the government assign a lease of life to shoes and homes, and machines to all products of manufacture, mining, and agriculture when they are first created, and they would be sold and used within the term of their existence, definitely known by the consumer. After the allotted time had expired, these things would be legally dead and would be controlled by the duly appointed governmental agency and destroyed if there is widespread unemployment.”

In other words, everything produced in the economy would be artificially made obsolete by the government at a specific date to cause the population to consume more. So that the economy recovers while simultaneously providing ample employment, further fostering economic growth. 

Bernard's problematic idea of planned obsolescence never really caught on because, arguably, it was the second world war that ended the Great Depression. This is primarily because the post-war period was one of incredible prosperity, particularly for the United States, as it managed to reap much of the rewards of victory while incurring little in the way of losses compared with its allies. Also, the US dollar had just become the world's reserve currency.


Image source: Investopedia

More importantly, the populations of countries like the United States and Canada exploded after the second world war; hence the generation referred to as Baby Boomers. It’s important because the rapid increase in population meant a rapid rise in consumption, so there was no need for planned obsolescence business practices. 

Companies could comfortably sell high-quality hardware that would last for decades because they knew there would always be another wave of buyers coming next year as more baby boomers became adult boomers. However, by the 1970s, it became clear that baby boomers weren’t having the same number of children as their predecessors.

Ostensibly, many western countries tried to fill this future demographic gap by introducing immigration, and this seems to have worked for a while. However, by the early 2000s, it turned out that immigration alone wasn't enough to fill the demographic gap, which continued to grow as companies needed increasingly future consumption to continue their future expansion. 

Meanwhile, native birth rates continued to decline, and this seems to be the period when Bernard's idea of planned obsolescence started to become a reality. Companies were effectively forced into selling low-quality products requiring a repurchase every few years to continue consumption trends in the absence of a growing population. 

Hardware As A Service

So, what does all of the above have to do with us owning nothing and being happy? If you’re an iPhone user, you may recall that Bloomberg reported that Apple would be rolling out a subscription service, and it’s nothing like their current service. It applies to the hardware, not the software, meaning that the subscription service will be for the physical phone itself. 

Louis Rossmann, a popular YouTuber, and computer repair shop owner who has gone head-to-head with anti-repair corporate lobbyists, reacted to the Bloomberg article, pointing out that a service is when someone or something does something for you. A phone is not a service; it’s a product, and it should be yours entirely from the moment you purchase it. 

Louis also highlighted that many Wall Street investors are pushing for publicly traded companies to adopt this so-called Hardware as a Service business model (HaaS) because it will make them trade at higher valuations, regardless of their actual earnings. 

This sounds disturbingly similar to the ESG investment trend, which effectively consists of asset managers moving their money into companies that comply with their ever-changing criteria, causing their stocks to pump even though no actual profits are being made.

Hardware as a service satisfies Environmental criteria because the number of devices in circulation can be reduced, and the ones in circulation can be reused. Any old devices can be easily recycled; you'll likely need to give back your old device to get a newer version. 

Hardware as a service also satisfies Social criteria because everyone will have subscription services for the same devices. There will be no phone with a better camera or a bigger memory.  Nor will there be a faster or slower, bigger or smaller car, which means everyone will be truly equal. 

Hardware as a service satisfies Governance criteria because it will put the company producing the product in total control of its creation, use, and destruction. Furthermore, HaaS will result in actual profits because people will pay for subscription services for just about everything they have in their possession until they die. 

Whereas Planned Obsolescence was formulated to solve the Great Depression, it appears that Hardware as a Service is being introduced to ensure consumption continues to increase even as the demographic decline continues. 

HaaS is not likely to be forced upon us consumers. As we’ve recently seen in other products, applying too much force tends to result in an equal or more significant amount of resistance because people know something is up when they don't have a choice. 

Instead, however, the ability to own anything will likely become ever more difficult as time goes on, starting with items that tend to be the most expensive purchases for the average person. Housing is at the top of the list, with costs going through the roof. 

 


Image source: The Guardian

Housing

The housing market and the rising costs in this sector of the economy will eventually cause the population to push politicians to do something—for example, Berlin’s campaign to resocialize housing. One of the outcomes could be that the government starts nationalizing housing. In other words, taking it away from landlords in the name of the greater good, and while these policies will be directed towards the big fish at first, the small fish will come next, just like with taxation. 

Alternatively, if the housing market collapses, we could see asset managers like Blackstone swoop in and acquire as many properties as possible with the freshly printed money they received from their respective central banks. Basically, you’ll rent from the government or Wall Street. 

Personal Transport Vehicles

The next item on the list is vehicles of all kinds. A lot of activity is already in play by car-sharing companies, electric scooter companies, and shared bicycle companies. There’s every chance these entities are extracting as much data as possible in preparation for HaaS models for similar vehicles. And the fact that many of these companies continue to receive large investments, despite being barely profitable is evidence of this effect.

Interestingly, HaaS in cars is likely a reason why there's such a massive push for electric vehicles. That's because it's easy to break the rules of a sharing economy when the car is powered by petrol and hardware, but it's much harder to break the rules when the vehicle is powered by electricity and software. 

Moreover, there's a limit to how many electric cars can be made because there doesn't seem to be enough lithium on the planet to replace existing vehicles with electric cars, according to the World Economic Forum's own research. So it effectively guarantees that electric vehicles will need to be shared. 

Phones And Computers

Phones and computers will probably be the third class of products to get sucked into the hardware as a service scheme, but the average person could take quite a while to accept it. That's because phones and computers are frequently listed as a person's most valuable possessions, primarily because it's something that you can truly shape to meet your personal needs.

These devices also contain lots of sensitive personal data that you'd rather keep to yourself and not share with anyone. Keeping track of phones and computers would also be very difficult without a digital ID, which is also a prerequisite for the rollout of Central Bank Digital Currencies and internet censorship, which the powers that be have explicitly stated they want to enforce.

Is The Tradeoff Worth it? 

The number of people on board with this Hardware as a service idea seems to be increasing. This is simply because an increasing number of people can't afford a home, a car, or even a quality computer or phone. But many think the tradeoff is too great, given that we are all unique, inherently sovereign human beings with Divine free will bestowed upon us. It’s not in our nature to be enslaved by any physical entity without the freedom to make choices, grow and prosper.

There is something precious that we do own, and that is ourselves. The few things we should have a right to own are ultimately an extension of ourselves. They allow us to exercise ownership of ourselves in the world so long as the path to ownership exists. This is why having a place to call home, a way to get around, and the ability to communicate and express oneself is objectively vital and universally sought after. Where there’s a will, there’s a way. 

I can’t imagine anyone being “happy” in a world where the path to ownership of literally everything except our physical body is obstructed. To make matters worse, we may even lose ownership of ourselves because of a digital ID “they” plan to roll out.

What’s The Solution? 

It should be clear by now that our current financial system is not working, and some say it hasn’t been working for decades or even longer because it’s not just Hardware as a Service, as Planned Obsolescence was proposed almost 100 years ago. As all crypto enthusiasts know, cryptocurrency was built to replace this broken financial system. Although cryptocurrency still has a very long way to go, it has already fixed one of the most critical aspects of finance: the ability to truly own your assets. 


Image source: wtfhappenedin1971.com

Some may consider this is nothing new, but it really is! The money in your bank can be seized, and authorities can confiscate any physical property you have. Even your house can be taken from you if you don't pay your taxes, and in some countries, the government can take your property at will using Eminent Domain.

Some might think this is fine, but it's not. These are the sorts of legal levers that governments and corporations are slowly starting to pull to take control of everything you own. Once realized, it’s easier to understand why the Entrepreneur and CEO of MicroStrategy, Michael Saylor, is a colossal Bitcoin advocate. 


Image source: Markethive.com

BTC can't be seized because a third party does not technically own it. It can't be confiscated because it's not physical. And it can't be taken by the government through some obscure law because the only law in crypto is immutable computer code. This makes BTC the best hedge against a world where you will own nothing because it guarantees you will own something.

A growing number of companies and individuals also realize what’s happening and are building a Parallel Economy to counter the “woke trend” and the elite pushing for this new world order and planning the great reset of the world. We must be aware of what’s happening and what’s in store before we are blindsided. Be part of communities that believe in liberty, financial sovereignty, and the freedom to live the way we have been accustomed to so that the legacy may continue for future generations. 

 

 

Editor and Chief Markethive: Deb Williams. (Australia) I thrive on progress and champion freedom of speech. I embrace "Change" with a passion, and my purpose in life is to enlighten people to accept and move forward with enthusiasm. Find me at my Markethive Profile Page | My Twitter Account | and my LinkedIn Profile.

 

 

 

 

Tim Moseley

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With so many gold and silver bears it doesn’t take much to trigger a short squeeze

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With so many gold and silver bears, it doesn't take much to trigger a short squeeze

The U.S. dollar's unrelenting rally at a 20-year high continues to force hedge funds to increase their bearish bets in gold, according to the latest data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Although there are risks that the U.S. dollar could push precious metal prices lower, analysts note that Monday's 2% rally in the gold market is an indication that the market is susceptible to a short-covering squeeze.

The silver market is seeing an even more substantial short squeeze as prices last traded at $20.71 an ounce, up nearly 9% on the day. Silver is seeing its best daily percentage gain since mid-August 2020.

Gold prices last traded at $1,704 an ounce, their highest level since Sept. 15. According to analysts, bearish gold investors are covering their short bets as rising global economic uncertainty and a potential international banking crisis are driving renewed interest for safe-haven assets.

"There are so many shorts that it just takes a small catalyst to ignite a much bigger rally," said Netish Shah, head of commodity research at WisdomTree.

Many analysts have been warning of the extreme short position building in the gold market as hedge funds increase their bearish bets for the seventh consecutive month.

The CFTC disaggregated Commitments of Traders report for the week ending Sept. 27 showed money managers dropped their speculative gross long positions in Comex gold futures by 4,373 contracts to 74,171. At the same time, short positions rose by 2,026 contracts to 117,265.

Gold's net short positioning now stands at 43,094 contracts, up nearly 17% from the previous week. Positioning is at its lowest point since November 2018.

"At this stage, the main buyer is likely to be money managers reducing short bets on COMEX gold," said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank.

Along with rising financial market uncertainty, Shah said that strong physical demand for gold should also support prices and put further pressure on short positioning. He explained that the disconnect between robust physical demand and weak paper investment is not sustainable.

Oxford Economics says 4% to 6% allocation in silver will be optimal over the next five years

Although some analysts see the extreme positioning as a buying opportunity, other analysts note that the market is still in a technical downtrend. Bearish analysts have said that these gold rallies could prove to be short-lived as the Federal Reserve's aggressive monetary policy stance drives the U.S. dollar and bond yields continue to move higher.

Commodity analysts at TD Securities said they still expect gold prices to push lower. They noted that gold still hasn't seen a significant capitulation moment.

"While rates markets continue to reflect a more aggressive Fed rate hiking path, gold markets are still not pricing in the next stage of the hiking cycle. Amid persistent inflation, a restrictive rates regime may last longer than historical precedents, pointing to a prolonged period of pronounced weakness in precious metals," the analysts said in a note.

While hedge funds remain significantly bearish on gold, they are reducing their overall exposure in silver.

The disaggregated report showed that money-managed speculative gross long positions in Comex silver futures fell by 2,165 contracts to 34,429. However, short positions also rose by 2,093 contracts to 42,522.

Silver's positioning is now net short by 8,093 contracts, relatively unchanged from the previous week.

Although silver's bearish positioning has bounced off its recent three-year lows, analysts note that sentiment is still significantly depressed and ripe for a short squeeze.

"When positioning becomes too stretched on the short side, we usually observe a wave of short-covering, which was the case at the end of 2018 and early 2019 said Edward Meir, commodity consultant at ED&F Man Capital Markets.

By Neils Christensen

For Kitco News

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

Tim Moseley

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Gold prices push to 1675 as US core PCE rises 06 in August

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Gold prices push to $1,675 as U.S. core PCE rises 0.6% in August

Hotter-than-expected inflation data is providing some initial support for the gold market as prices retest the long-term support/resistance level at $1,675 an ounce.

Friday, U.S. Department of Commerce said its core Personal Consumption Expenditures price index increased 0.6% last month, up from July’s reading of 0.1%. Economists were expecting to see a 0.5% rise.

According to some economists, the rise in core inflation is an indication that rising consumer prices are becoming entrenched in the economy, which will provide further challenges for the Federal Reserve.

The gold market has seen a modest jump in initial reaction to the latest inflation data. December gold futures last traded at $1,675.70 an ounce, up 0.44% on the day.

The latest economic report also noted that consumers are once again spending more than they are earnings. Personal income in August rose 0.3%, in line with expectations; meanwhile, personal spending rose 0.4%. The data beat expectations as economists were forecasting a 0.2% increase.

According to some economists, consumes are being forced to spending more because of inflation.

Gold hasn’t been much of an inflation hedge through 2022 as higher consumer prices have forced the Federal Reserve to aggressive raise interest rates, which has pushed real yields into positive territory. However, some analysts have said that sentiment in the gold market could slowly be changing as the Fed’s monetary policy could be close to a breaking point

Massive volatility in global currency markets this week as been a signal for many investors that the surging momentum in the U.S. dollar, driven by the rising Fed Funds rate is causing problems for the global economy.

By Neils Christensen

For Kitco News

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

Tim Moseley

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Can gold price put an end to its six-month losing streak? Prices are at ‘critical juncture’ – analysts

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Can gold price put an end to its six-month losing streak? Prices are at 'critical juncture' – analysts

What gold does in the next two weeks will be critical for prices going into the year-end, according to analysts. All eyes are on the latest rounds of employment and inflation data as gold shows promising signs amid escalating geopolitical tensions and intensifying market volatility.

Gold saw a key development mid-week as prices rose from 2.5-year lows and headed towards the $1,700 an ounce level. At the time of writing, December Comex futures were trading at $1,673.70, up more than 1% on the week but down for the sixth month in a row.

"On Wednesday, gold had a key reversal. We made a new swing from the lows and ended up with a higher close. We had some follow-through Thursday and Friday. Looking at the gold chart, this is very positive. We go from a short-term trend down to sideways and up now," RJO Futures senior market strategist Frank Cholly told Kitco News.

If the gold market can get back above $1,700, the uptrend will be achieved, and a run to $1,740 would be possible, Cholly added.

Before this week, gold technicals were very negative, especially following a drop below $1,680. A steeper decline below $1,600 could have opened the door to a more significant selloff down to $1,290, said DailyFX strategist Michael Boutros.

"The technicals were very gloomy here," Boutros told Kitco News. "If gold prices are able to get above $1,706, we can dispel this downside break."

But the move higher needs to happen within the next two weeks. Otherwise, the downward trend will take over. "What happens in the next two weeks in price is paramount. The extraordinary speed and magnitude of Fed rate hikes put heavy pressure on gold," Boutros noted.
 

Geopolitical tensions could be one short-term driver that gets gold above $1,700. The latest development saw Russia annex four regions in south-eastern Ukraine, promising to use all means necessary to defend the territory.

"If escalation in Russia does start to mount the concern of real possible nuclear threat," that would be positive for gold, added Boutros.

However, it is essential to remember that any geopolitical gains in gold are likely only temporary, said TD Securities global head of commodity strategy Bart Melek. "Any time there is an increase in geopolitical risk, there is at least a temporary upside," he said.

But considering the monetary policy situation, it will be hard to shift gold's overall bearish trend.

"Ultimately, the U.S. dollar continues to be strong. The outlook hasn't changed. The Fed will continue to raise rates. And we'll have the Bank of England doing pretty aggressive tightening as well," Melek pointed out.

UK's market chaos, contagion risk: what it all means for gold price

Employment and inflation data

Gold's near-term direction will largely depend on the employment and inflation data released in the first two weeks of October.

"I don't see a breakout in gold until we see the employment and inflation numbers. If CPI or employment is stronger than expected, that is a negative for gold. It suggests that the Fed would be more likely to continue hiking as per its 4.6% outline in the dot plot. High inflation would also mean that market could price in something more aggressive down the road," Melek described.

Market consensus calls estimate the employment report to show the economy adding 250,000 positions in September and the unemployment rate remaining near 50-year lows at 3.7%.
 

The annual inflation number is expected to come at 8.1% in September after posting 8.3% in August.
 

Next week's data

Monday: U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI

Wednesday: U.S. ADP nonfarm employment, ISM non-manufacturing

Thursday: U.S. jobless claims

Friday: U.S. nonfarm payrolls
 

By Anna Golubova

For Kitco News

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

Tim Moseley

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GoldSilver – Use options to play a short covering rally

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Gold/Silver – Use options to play a short covering rally

What a volatile week it's been with the month and quarter ending after a downgrade of Apple stock sent retail stock investors scrambling for the exit signs and the British Pound falling to a record low against the Dollar. The U.K. government presented a fiscal spending plan that could put the next round of U.K. inflation through the roof. At the same time, the Bank of England admitted its first policy mistake and is in a state of "panic" that requires the need to deliver 175-200 bps in rate hikes over the next two meetings. Bringing it back to the U.S., Fed Fund futures are pricing in a 50/50 chance of another 50 or 75 bps rate hike at the next Fed meeting. That leaves traders wondering how long before the Fed admits its policy mistake of tightening too far into a recession.

The aggressive tightening of monetary policy in the U.S. has created a strong bid under the U.S. Dollar that will keep pressure on Gold and Silver for the time being. Unfortunately for precious metals bulls, the labor market's strength is the glue that holds the Fed's foot firmly on the rate hike pedal. The only thing that can stop the Fed is both inflation and the labor market showing signs of cooling, which could provide a sharp setback in the Dollar, leaving way for a massive precious metal short-covering rally

How to play these markets?

I cannot reiterate enough that there is a possibility that the Fed will continue to tighten while all of Europe lags in its efforts. However, if the Fed pivots, a short covering rally could unfold. I have found that it is best to use a calculated risk Options strategy in deeply oversold markets that haven't solidified a technical bottom. An options bull call spread is a trading strategy aiming to capitalize on an increase in a given market or asset during times of high volatility or for counter-trend trades. The option strategy consists of two call options that create a range that outlines a lower strike point and an upper strike point. The bullish call spread strategy helps to cap your max loss if the price of an asset drops. However, the strategy also limits the potential gains in case of a price increase. Bullish investors often use this when trading futures as a calculated risk debit spread.

February 2023 Gold Options Trade

We use the February 2023 Gold futures contract in this bull call spread example. We are buying 1 February Gold 1750 call at $45 as our long call. We then simultaneously sell 1 February Gold 1850 call at $22 as our short call. This action creates our premium, which is $23. We then multiply that by $100 to account for Gold's multiplier (a 100-ounce contract) to get $2,300, or our total premium paid (plus any commissions or clearing fees).Knowing our premium paid, we can calculate our potential max profit simply by taking the difference in our strike prices ($1850 – $1750), which in this case is $100, then we multiply $100 by $100 because this is a futures contract. That gives us a total of $10,000 as our max gross profit, minus our

January Silver Options Trade

If you prefer Silver, we are looking at a year-end strategy that involves buying 1 January Silver $19.00 call at 120 cents as our long call. We then simultaneously sell 1 January Silver $19.75 call at 95 cents as our short call. This action creates our premium, which is 25. We then multiply that by $50 to account for Silver's multiplier to get $1,250, or our total premium (plus any commissions or clearing fees).

Knowing our premium paid, we can calculate our potential max profit simply by taking the difference in our strike prices ($19.75 – $19.00), which in this case is 75 cents, then we multiply 75 by $50 because this is a futures contract. That gives us a total of $3,750 as our max gross profit, minus our $1,250 premium, leaving us with a max net profit of $2,500 (less any commissions or clearing fees). If you have never traded futures or commodities, I just completed a new educational guide that answers all your questions on transferring your current investing skills into trading "real assets," such as the 10 oz Gold futures contract. You can request yours here: Trade Metals, Transition your Experience Book.

By Phillip Streible

Contributing to kitco.comweek's low of $1,622.20. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5.

December silver futures bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $20.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the September low of $17.40. First resistance is seen at this week's high of $19.045 and then at $19.40. Next support is seen at Tuesday's low of $18.295 and then at $18.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

December N.Y. copper closed up 670 points at 342.55 cents today. Prices closed near the session high today. The copper bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the September high of 369.25 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the July low of 315.55 cents. First resistance is seen at 350.00 cents and then at 355.00 cents. First support is seen at today's low of 330.55 cents and then at this week's low of 324.30 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

By Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

Tim Moseley

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Gold price weaker earlier but now catching safe-haven bid as US equities tank

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Gold price weaker earlier, but now catching safe-haven bid as U.S. equities tank

Gold prices are a bit higher and near daily highs in midday U.S. trading Thursday. The yellow metal has erased its early losses as is seeing some safe-haven buying the U.S. stock market is melting down again and risk aversion is on the rise, amid shaky currency and bond markets. Also, daily bullish elements for the precious metals include a slight drop in the U.S. dollar index and in Treasury yields at midday. December gold was last up $2.10 at $1,672.20 and December silver was down $0.08 at $18.80.

U.S. stock indexes are sharply lower and back near their recent lows at midday. The marketplace was only briefly assuaged by the Bank of England's surprise announcement Wednesday that it will begin purchases of U.K. government bonds in order to stabilize the rattled U.K. bond market. However, markets quickly brushed aside the move as being insufficient. Risk aversion remains significantly elevated late this week. The marketplace is spooked by rising inflation, the specter of global economic recession, and currency and financial markets instability.

The U.K. government has created a "loop of doom" that threatens the entire financial system and they must act urgently, said Nigel Green of the DeVere Group. "Markets now know where the weakness lies. Intervention paints a target on the back of the body that intervenes." If the U.K. government does not change its tax and spending plans, "they will have blown up the U.K. mortgage market, U.K. pensions, amongst others, and eventually (a contagion) could spread to the wider global financial markets which themselves are sitting on thin ice as liquidity disappears," said Green. His comments came after the Bank of England stepped in to buy U.K. bonds Wednesday. The BOE's announcement "is the right thing to do, of course, but it seems ludicrous that it has had to act in this way," said Green. The International Monetary Fund warned the U.K. government over its plan for tax cuts and spending, saying such is likely to increase inequality and add to pressures pushing up prices.

New Pacific Metals advances a project near 'one of the largest silver deposits in the world'

Read a Barron's headline today: "Things are starting to break. But the Fed and BOE aren't done hiking."

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices firmer and trading around $83.00 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is rising and presently fetching 3.729% after rising above 4.0% overnight. The 2-year Treasury note yield is 4.39%.

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Technically, December gold futures bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $1,700.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,600.00. First resistance is seen at $1,685.00 and then at $1,700.00. First support is seen at today's low of $1,649.30 and then at this week's low of $1,622.20. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5.

]

December silver futures bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $20.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the September low of $17.40. First resistance is seen at this week's high of $19.045 and then at $19.40. Next support is seen at Tuesday's low of $18.295 and then at $18.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

December N.Y. copper closed up 670 points at 342.55 cents today. Prices closed near the session high today. The copper bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the September high of 369.25 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the July low of 315.55 cents. First resistance is seen at 350.00 cents and then at 355.00 cents. First support is seen at today's low of 330.55 cents and then at this week's low of 324.30 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

By Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

Tim Moseley

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This Is What Being A Hiver Is All About

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This Is What Being A Hiver Is All About

by Julia Travers writer, artist, and teacher

 

Thiis Is What Beiing A Hiver Is All About

 

After becoming deaf and blind at age two, Helen Keller faced her challenges with a singular optimism and strength. She became a trailblazing advocate for disability rights, and the first person who was deaf and blind to earn a college degree in the United States. She graduated in 1904, when women were significantly outnumbered by men in higher education, special education was in its infancy, and the disability rights movement was just beginning to pick up steam.

Keller’s mastery of multiple forms of communication, and lifelong activism on behalf of people with disabilities, women, Black people, and other socially sidelined groups, brought her international celebrity. She lectured throughout the U.S. and abroad, and authored 14 books, including a famous memoir published in 1905, The Story of My Life, which was translated into 50 languages and remains in print.

While Keller embraced the limelight, she did so in order to campaign for fair treatment and equal rights for everyone, regardless of gender, race, or disability. She supported the growth of several major U.S. institutions, including Helen Keller International, the ACLU, and the NAACP. She believed true happiness came from helping and working in partnership with others, aligning oneself with a higher purpose, and from within oneself.

“When one door of happiness closes, another opens; but often we look so long at the closed door that we do not see the one which has been opened for us,” she wrote in 1929. Helen Keller was a passionate proponent of hope and courage in the face of adversity, and her words continue to inspire. Here are some of her most well-known and poignant statements.

 

A happy life consists not in the absence, but in the mastery of hardships.

Keller was born in 1880 in Alabama. When she was two years old, she became deaf and blind due to a fever. Her early childhood was reportedly filled with tantrums and disruptive behaviors. But when Keller was seven years old, her parents hired Anne Sullivan, a recent graduate from the Perkins Institute for the Blind in Boston, Massachusetts, to work with their daughter. Sullivan’s arrival and her persistent and creative instruction were turning points in Keller’s life.

 

Optimism is the faith that leads to achievement; nothing can be done without hope.

After initial struggles, a breakthrough occurred when Sullivan repeatedly ran water over one of Keller’s palms while fingerspelling the word “water” into the other. After many tries, Keller was able to connect the tactile experience of flowing water with the letter signals.

After comprehending the sign for water, she was able to learn 30 more signs that same day. Working with Sullivan stoked her ambitions to pursue an education and learn to speak. Keller was eventually able to communicate through finger spelling, typing, Braille, touch-lip reading, and speech.

 

I would rather walk with a friend in the dark, than alone in the light.

The friendship that developed between Keller and her mentor, Sullivan, spanned decades, and the pair lived together during different periods of their lives. Like Keller, Sullivan was a member of the disability community — she had vision impairments that increased as she aged.

 

One can never consent to creep when one feels an impulse to soar.

During her teenage years and young adulthood, Keller painstakingly learned to speak in a way that could be understood by people who could hear. She went to multiple schools for people who were deaf and a preparatory school for women before setting her sights on a new goal: attending college.

Meanwhile, Keller’s advancements became publicly known and drew the attention of influential people including Mark Twain, Alexander Graham Bell, and Henry H. Rogers, an oil magnate who offered to pay Keller’s tuition for Radcliffe College. In 1899, when she passed her entrance exams, only 36% of college students were women.

Sullivan accompanied Keller at Radcliffe, interpreting in classes until Keller graduated cum laude in 1904 at age 24. She was the first individual who was blind and deaf to earn a higher education degree in the U.S. Her autobiography, The Story of My Life, was published a year later in 1905 and was widely read.

 

Many persons have a wrong idea of what constitutes true happiness. It is not attained through self-gratification but through fidelity to a worthy purpose.

After graduation, Keller set out to share what she had learned and to advocate for people with disabilities. From universities to the halls of Congress, she lectured and testified on her experiences supporting blind and deaf communities. She is considered an early pioneer of the disability rights movement, which began to pick up steam in the early 1900s.

 

Alone we can do so little; together we can do so much.

Keller participated in numerous social movements of her era, including women's suffrage. In 1915, she cofounded Helen Keller International to address blindness and malnutrition around the world. She also helped found the ACLU and was an active member in the American Federation for the Blind, the Socialist Party, and other organizations. Despite being raised in the post-Reconstruction era South, she supported the recently founded NAACP advocating for civil rights for Black people.

 

Security is mostly a superstition. It does not exist in nature, nor do the children of men as a whole experience it. Avoiding danger is no safer in the long run than outright exposure. Life is either a daring adventure, or nothing.

Keller was an intrepid world traveler and activist. In 1946, she became the counselor of international relations for the American Foundation for Overseas Blind. During the next 11 years, she spread her message across five continents and 35 countries. For her efforts, Keller was awarded several honorary degrees and the Presidential Medal of Freedom. Her autobiography inspired the 1957 television drama The Miracle Worker, as well as a Broadway play and film of the same title.

 

No pessimist ever discovered the secrets of the stars, or sailed to an uncharted island, or opened a new heaven to the human spirit.

Despite facing many challenges, Keller lived a life full of meaning and happiness before her death in 1968 at age 87. Sullivan died in 1936 at the age of 70, after becoming nearly blind. She spent much of her life by Keller’s side. Beginning with a single hand sign, the impact of these two women’s accomplishments rippled throughout the global disability rights community, and beyond. Through the words Keller worked so hard to impart, their story endures today as a beacon of hope and possibility.

 

New Opportunities Are Emerging For Citizens of The World.

Freedom and democracy may appear to be struggling to stay alive in America, but there may be a knock-out punch ready to be released. The evolution of the blockchain-enabled metaverse is going to enable the 'Citizens of the World' to gain their own Freedom by democratizing power and creating a new world with new rules, new players, and new opportunities. For 99.99% of us, the metaverse will improve our real-world lives by democratizing power and opportunity.

Along with the major long-term trend of society towards decentralization and smaller-scale organizations, there are new opportunities developing to help 'Preparers' in the cryptocurrency sector. Businesses are beginning to issue their own Crypto Coins that can be traded on Cryptocoin Exchanges.

Markethive.com will release its HiveCoin (HIV) in the coming weeks. It has tremendous upside potential that is outlined in a Video by Founder Tom Prendergast, "Entrepreneur Advantage…".

Not only that, if you go to their website and register as a FREE Member, you will be given 500 HiveCoins for "FREE" along with access to several Earning Opportunities and online tools to increase your HiveCoin balance.

Be sure to check it out today – Markethive.com

Markethive

Tim Moseley

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Resellers Club Product Of The Day

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Resellers Club Product Of The Day

Wow! This baby is selling FAAAAAAAAAST! No wonder! It's the best bargain on the net, bar none!!!

 

       

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Tim Moseley

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Gold silver rally on safe-haven buying bullish outside markets

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Gold, silver rally on safe-haven buying, bullish outside markets

JGold and silver prices are solidly higher and near daily highs in midday U.S. trading Wednesday, on safe-haven demand amid a nervous marketplace as the calendar is set to turn to what can be a tumultuous month of October for stock and financial markets. The U.S. dollar index is trading solidly lower at midday, bond yields have also dropped during today's session, and crude oil prices are solidly higher—all bullish daily outside market elements for the metals markets. Gold prices did drop to a nearly 2.5-year low overnight. December gold was last up $30.00 at $1,666.00 and December silver was up $0.468 at $18.805.

A Barron's headline today reads, "The greenback has gone ballistic." The generally strong U.S. dollar is putting serious pressure on the currencies of many smaller countries, which is very worrisome to those who endured currency crises of past decades. The main concern is a general marketplace contagion developing if secondary currencies dislocations and illiquidity spill over into extreme anxiety and lack of confidence in the global financial transactions system. The Chinese yuan hit a record low against the U.S. dollar today. Major economies have taken steps over the years to prevent another global financial market crisis, but when everyone runs for the exit doors at once, even robust systems can be over-run. Any investment bank or big hedge fund that appears to be in trouble may provide the first clue of a much bigger problem developing. Such a scenario would likely prompt a bigger move into the hard assets, safe-haven gold and silver.

BMO downgrades gold and silver prices for 2023, upgrades uranium outlook

Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are higher at midday on short covering. The marketplace was somewhat assuaged overnight when the Bank of England made a surprise announcement that it will begin purchases of U.K. government bonds in order to stabilize the rattled U.K. bond market. The International Monetary Fund said the U.K. government should re-examine its stated plan to stimulate its economy through massive borrowing and bond sales.

Technically, December gold prices hit a nearly 2.5-year low early on today. Prices also scored a bullish "outside day" up today. The gold futures bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $1,700.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,600.00. First resistance is seen at today's high of $1,669.40 and then at $1,680.00. First support is seen at $1,650.00 and then at $1,635.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5.

December silver futures prices scored a bullish "outside day" up today after hitting a three-week low early on. The silver bears still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $20.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the September low of $17.40. First resistance is seen at this week's high of $19.045 and then at $19.40. Next support is seen at Tuesday's low of $18.295 and then at $18.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

December N.Y. copper closed up 735 points at 335.70 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and scored a bullish "outside day" up after hitting a nine-week low early on. The copper bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the September high of 369.25 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the July low of 315.55 cents. First resistance is seen at 340.00 cents and then at 348.00 cents. First support is seen at 330.00 cents and then at today's low of 324.30 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

By Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

Tim Moseley

The Artist that came out of the Winter