Gold price to see wild $100+ daily gains, Bitcoin rally to follow, if Middle East tensions escalate and spillover into 'unmitigated disaster' – Larry Lepard
Turmoil in the Middle East is keeping investors on edge, and gold is one of the first assets to react — rising above the critical psychological level of $2,000 an ounce and trading near 2.5-month highs on Friday.
It won’t be surprising to see gold witness daily gains of $100+ as the Israel-Hamas war escalates, Larry Lepard, Managing Partner and Founder of Equity Management Associates, told Michelle Makori, Lead Anchor and Editor-in-Chief at Kitco News.
"Gold has gone up a lot in a very short period of time," Lepard said Thursday. "And that’s a combination of the war and also sniffing out the underlying problem in the bond market. When geopolitical trouble arises, gold tends to smell it first."
Gold has gained over $160 since the terrorist group Hamas attacked Israel on October 7, killing more than 1,400 people, mostly civilians. Since then, the conflict has been escalating, with gold crossing the $2,000 an ounce level Friday and December Comex gold futures last trading at $2,005.90, up 1.28% on the day.
Markets are digesting the latest developments ahead of another uncertain weekend, including the Pentagon stating that the U.S. Navy warship intercepted three cruise missiles and several drones launched by the Iran-aligned Houthi movement from Yemen. Also, Iran called for an embargo against Israel, including an oil embargo on the country. Iran has also warned that if Israel proceeds with a ground operation into Gaza to retaliate against Hamas and rescue the hostages, it will activate its terrorist proxy groups on multiple fronts.
There is a 20% chance that this conflict will escalate into an "unmitigated disaster," said Lepard, with economic consequences that would "probably be bigger than 2008, and it's probably bigger than in 2020. What could happen that would be bigger than those two things? It'd be a really major war. It doesn't strike me as impossible," he pointed out.
The United States has been living in a false narrative that everything is well. But the regional banks still have $600 billion of commercial real estate losses, according to Lepard.
"You know something is going to break, and then it's going to cascade very similar to the way it did in 2008," Lepard described. "It would be an unmitigated disaster. And I don't think there's any way the Federal Reserve wouldn't be called upon to quote-unquote do the patriotic thing and print the money necessary to keep the system going, inflation be damned."
This could mean a major stock market selloff between 30% and 50%. For gold, this would translate into $100+ daily price moves, with Bitcoin likely following at some point.
Lepard envisions similar-sized price moves as in March 2020 after the Federal Reserve stepped in to support the U.S. economy, and gold surged, hitting record highs. "Gold went up a hundred dollars a day, two days back to back. You never see that. And that's what would happen again this time. So I think everybody has to be prepared for that," Lepard noted.
The monetary system today: 'Council of elders deciding the price of money' – Lyn Alden
Best-case and worst-case scenarios
Even in the best-case scenario, in which the Israel-Hamas war does not escalate into a major regional conflict or a WWIII-type situation, gold is looking to hit $2,500 an ounce after it goes through $2,100, Lepard told Kitco News.
"Gold will get through $2,100, which is a very important level. And when it goes through that, people will chase a new all-time high. We'll be at $2,500, maybe even $3,000," he said. "Assuming an absolute best case in the war, we're still screwed monetarily and economically."
Bitcoin will also likely catch the safe-haven bid and follow gold’s rally. "My target for mid to the tail-end of next year is $2,500 to $3,000 gold and $50k-$100k Bitcoin," he added. "That’s assuming a best case scenario in the war — that things calm down and nothing gets worse."
To learn when Bitcoin is likely to start rallying, watch the video above.
At the same time, the worst-case scenario, in which the Israel-Hamas conflict turns into a major war, is not all that implausible either, according to Lepard.
The Fed’s easing cycle is near, what it means for markets
There's a high probability that the Fed is done hiking because the bond market is signaling that something is close to breaking, Lepard said.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury, which moves inversely to prices, is trading above 4.9% — a level last seen in 2007.
"The Fed knows that if they continue to raise rates, they're going to break the bond market. They may have already broken it, but they're going to break it to the point that it's irreparable. So I think what we're moving towards is monetary easing," Lepard said. "And that's what gold smells. Gold also smells war, and gold always goes up when there's instability."
Watch the video above to get Lepard’s take on the Fed’s next step and what the central bank’s Chair Jerome Powell is afraid of going into the year-end.
Lepard also explores the idea of sound money and which safe haven assets are the best to hold during heightened geopolitical uncertainty and makes the case for Bitcoin as well as gold. Watch the video above for details.
The company's compensation plan is designed to reward affiliates for their efforts in building their business. According to the company's website, affiliates can earn money through retail sales, team commissions, bonuses, and incentives. GoDesana.com claims that their compensation plan is one of the most lucrative in the industry, paying out every day of the week.
Key Takeaways
GoDesana.com offers an income opportunity for those interested in the wellness industry.
The company provides pure, organic, and wild-crafted essential oils and other wellness products.
The compensation plan is designed to reward affiliates for their efforts in building their business.
About GoDesana
GoDesana is a company that offers essential oils, personal care, weight loss, nutrition, and home products. The company was founded by Paula Scarcella and Alexandria Brighton in 2007, and its headquarters is located in Chandler, Arizona, USA.
Founders and History
Paula Scarcella and Alexandria Brighton are the founders of GoDesana. Scarcella has over 30 years of experience in the network marketing industry, while Brighton is a certified aromatherapist with over 30 years of experience in the field of natural health. Together, they created GoDesana with a mission to provide pure, natural, and organic products to people around the world.
GoDesana has been in business for over a decade and has built a reputation for providing high-quality products to its customers. The company has received positive reviews from customers who appreciate the quality and effectiveness of its products.
Affiliation with Green Organics International
GoDesana is affiliated with Green Organics International, a company that specializes in organic and natural products. Green Organics International is a network marketing company that offers a variety of products, including health and wellness, personal care, and home care products.
As an affiliate of Green Organics International, GoDesana offers its products through a network of independent distributors. This allows customers to purchase GoDesana products directly from distributors and also provides an opportunity for individuals to earn income by selling GoDesana products.
Overall, GoDesana is a reputable company that offers high-quality products and an opportunity for individuals to earn income through its network marketing program.
Product Overview
GoDesana.com offers a wide range of products that are designed to cater to different aspects of health and wellness. Their product line includes essential oils, aromatherapy, tea and herbal products, nutrition and supplements, personal care, and weight loss products.
Essential Oils and Aromatherapy
GoDesana.com offers a variety of essential oils that are 100% pure, organic, and wild-crafted. Essential oils are derived from plants and are used for aromatherapy, massage, and other therapeutic purposes. They are known for their calming and soothing effects and can help relieve stress, anxiety, and other emotional issues.
Tea and Herbal Products
GoDesana.com offers a range of tea and herbal products that are designed to promote health and wellness. Their tea blends are made from organic and wild-crafted herbs and are designed to support different aspects of health, such as digestion, immune system, and relaxation.
Nutrition and Supplements
GoDesana.com offers a range of nutrition and supplement products that are designed to support overall health and wellness. Their products are made from high-quality ingredients and are designed to provide essential nutrients that may be missing from the diet.
Personal Care and Weight Loss Products
GoDesana.com offers a range of personal care and weight loss products that are designed to support overall health and wellness. Their personal care products are made from natural and organic ingredients and are designed to be gentle on the skin. Their weight loss products are designed to support weight loss goals and are made from natural and organic ingredients.
Overall, GoDesana.com offers a wide range of products that are designed to support overall health and wellness. Their products are made from high-quality ingredients and are designed to be safe and effective.
Compensation Plan
GoDésana offers a generous and fair compensation plan that provides its product consultants with multiple ways to earn. The plan is based on a unilevel compensation structure that allows consultants to earn commissions on their personal sales as well as the sales of their downline.
Unilevel Compensation Structure
The GoDésana compensation plan is based on a unilevel structure that allows product consultants to earn commissions on up to 10 levels of their downline. This means that consultants earn a percentage of the sales volume generated by their downline, with the percentage increasing as they move up in rank.
Affiliate Ranks
GoDésana has ten affiliate ranks, each with its own set of requirements. The ranks, in ascending order, are: Product Consultant, Silver, Gold, Jasper, Amber, Ruby, Emerald, Diamond, Double Diamond, and Platinum Diamond.
To move up in rank, consultants must meet certain requirements, such as achieving a certain amount of personal volume (PV) and group volume (GV), and sponsoring new consultants. As consultants move up in rank, they become eligible for higher commissions and bonuses.
Commissions and Bonuses
GoDésana pays its product consultants in eight different ways, including retail profits, preferred customer bonuses, and cycle bonuses. The cycle bonus is a unique feature of the GoDésana compensation plan and provides consultants with a proven formula to quickly earn $750.00 or more on a daily basis.
In addition to the cycle bonus, GoDésana offers other bonuses, such as the rank advancement bonus, which rewards consultants for achieving higher ranks, and the leadership bonus, which rewards top leaders for their efforts in building and supporting their downline.
Overall, the GoDésana compensation plan is designed to provide its product consultants with a fair and equitable way to earn income while promoting the company's high-quality, organic products.
Opportunities for Success
Building a 6-Figure Business
At goDésana, there is an opportunity to build a successful business and achieve financial freedom. With the right mindset and dedication, it is possible to create a 6-figure business. The company's compensation plan offers several ways to earn income, including retail sales, team commissions, and bonuses.
One way to grow a successful business is by building a team of like-minded individuals who share your passion for wellness and natural products. By mentoring and supporting your team members, you can help them achieve their goals while also growing your own business.
Another key to success is staying up-to-date with the latest products and industry trends. goDésana provides ongoing training and resources to help consultants stay informed and grow their business.
Partnering with Local Businesses
goDésana also offers opportunities to partner with local businesses and expand your reach in the community. By collaborating with spas, fitness centers, and other wellness-focused businesses, you can introduce your products to a wider audience and build valuable relationships.
Partnering with local businesses can also lead to new opportunities for growth and expansion. For example, you may be able to co-host events or workshops to promote your products and services. This can help you connect with potential customers and build a loyal following.
goDesana provides its members with a wealth of educational resources that can help them grow their business and improve their knowledge of essential oils.
One of the key educational resources available to goDesana members is Alexandria Brighton, the company's exclusive formulator. With over 30 years of experience in the Ayurvedic Medicine, Aromatherapy, herbal, and natural remedy world, Alexandria Brighton is a deeply intuitive and knowledgeable educator who can help members learn more about the benefits of essential oils and how they can be used to improve health and wellbeing.
In addition to Alexandria Brighton, goDesana also offers a range of training materials to help members learn more about the company's products and compensation plan. These materials include webinars, training videos, and other resources that can be accessed through the goDesana website.
Finally, goDesana members can also benefit from the resources available through the Brighton Institute of Botanical Studies. Founded by Alexandria Brighton, the institute offers a range of courses and programs in aromatherapy, herbalism, and other related fields. By taking advantage of these resources, goDesana members can deepen their knowledge of essential oils and related topics, and gain the skills they need to succeed in the essential oils industry.
Is GoDesana a Scam or Legitimate?
When it comes to MLM companies, there is always a concern about whether the company is legitimate or just a scam. With GoDesana, there are mixed opinions on the matter.
On one hand, GoDesana has been around since 2014 and has a variety of products, including essential oils, personal care, weight loss, nutrition, and home products. They also have a compensation plan that claims to offer many earning opportunities for their affiliates.
On the other hand, there are some concerns about the company's practices. For example, some people have reported that GoDesana heavily incentivizes 31-day affiliate purchases, which could be seen as a red flag. Additionally, there have been accusations of GoDesana being a pyramid scheme, which is illegal in many countries.
Despite these concerns, it's important to note that GoDesana is still in business and has many satisfied customers and affiliates. It's up to each individual to do their own research and decide whether they want to get involved with the company.
Overall, while there are some concerns about GoDesana, it's not fair to label the company as a scam without further evidence. However, it's important to approach any MLM opportunity with caution and do thorough research before investing time and money.
Gold Price News: Gold Leaps Ahead on Heightened Risk Aversion
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Gold continues to rally strongly, with recent gains taking the price to a three-month high of $1,979 per ounce. For now, the appetite for safe-haven assets is trumping stiff rate headwinds.
Market drivers for gold remain under significant tension. US economic data is still largely beating expectations, helping to sustain inflation and higher interest rates to combat it. US rates continue to climb with 10-year US Treasury yields now testing 5% – a level not seen since mid-2007. This is clearly a challenge for non-yielding assets, such as gold.
gold kau price on kinesis exchange
However, the risk environment also remains elevated. Geopolitical risk has risen in the Middle East. However, the muted rise in crude oil prices thus far suggests that the market is still pricing in a low probability of Iran being drawn directly into the regional conflict. As such, the risks here still arguably lie to the upside. Equity markets are also uneasy, with the VIX (‘Fear’) Index of implied S&P 500 volatility at the highest levels since the US banking scare in March.
In the meantime, the much-awaited speech by Fed Chairman Powell has done little to move the dial. While the probability of a rate pause until the end of 2023 seems to have improved, the chances of one last rate hike in Q1 2024 have hardly moved. Until greater clarity, bonds will be handicapped in their ability to attract safe-haven flows from gold.
The Entrepreneurial Odyssey: Navigating the Uncharted Waters of Business
Entrepreneurship is often likened to a thrilling adventure, an odyssey filled with twists, turns, and uncharted waters. It's a journey that requires a unique blend of passion, grit, and innovation. In this blog, we embark on a storytelling voyage into the world of entrepreneurship, where dreams are born, challenges are met, and destinies are forged.
The Birth of an Idea
Our story begins in a cozy coffee shop, where Sarah, a young marketing professional, sips her latte while scribbling ideas on a napkin. Her mind teems with a vision – a vision of a product that could change people's lives. The napkin, now filled with doodles and notes, becomes the birth certificate of her entrepreneurial dream.
The Leap of Faith
The path to entrepreneurship is paved with uncertainty. Sarah's decision to leave her stable job was a leap of faith. She took the first step into uncharted waters, driven by her unwavering belief in her idea. It's a leap that many aspiring entrepreneurs make, knowing that there's no turning back.
The First Stumble
Like any great odyssey, Sarah encountered her first stumbling block. Building her product proved more challenging than anticipated. She faced technical issues, design dilemmas, and countless revisions. But she persevered, fueled by her determination to overcome these obstacles.
The Mentor's Wisdom
Every great explorer needs a mentor. Sarah was fortunate to find one – an experienced entrepreneur who offered guidance, advice, and encouragement. Through their mentorship, Sarah learned to navigate the treacherous waters of business, avoiding some pitfalls and embracing others as valuable lessons.
The First Glimmer of Success
After months of hard work, the day came when Sarah's product was ready to launch. The satisfaction of that moment was immeasurable. As the first customers' positive feedback rolled in, Sarah's vision became a reality. Her product was solving real problems for people.
The Pivot
In the world of entrepreneurship, change is inevitable. Sarah soon realized that her product needed adjustments to reach a wider audience. The decision to pivot was a challenging one, but it showcased her adaptability and commitment to growth.
The Entrepreneurial Community
Entrepreneurs don't journey alone. Sarah discovered a supportive entrepreneurial community where she found camaraderie, shared experiences, and collaborative opportunities. This network helped her overcome obstacles and find new pathways to success.
The Sleepless Nights
Every entrepreneur knows the restless nights spent worrying about finances, competition, and the future. Sarah's sleepless nights were marked by anxiety but also by resilience. These difficult moments fueled her determination.
The Triumph
After years of hard work, sacrifices, and learning experiences, Sarah's entrepreneurial odyssey bore fruit. Her business thrived, her product became a household name, and her vision had come full circle. Sarah's triumph was a testament to her unyielding commitment and her unwavering belief in her dream.
The Ongoing Journey
Even as Sarah achieved her initial goals, she realized that the entrepreneurial journey was far from over. It had evolved from a solo odyssey into a team expedition. Her role as a leader had grown, and she was now steering her ship towards new horizons and uncharted waters.
The Lessons Learned
Through this storytelling journey, we learn that entrepreneurship isn't just about making money; it's about creating something meaningful, about changing lives, and about personal growth. It's about resilience, adaptability, and a steadfast belief in your dreams.
In closing, entrepreneurship is a thrilling adventure, an odyssey that tests one's mettle and rewards perseverance. It's about embracing the unknown, learning from each challenge, and ultimately triumphing over adversity. Whether you're just starting your entrepreneurial journey or have already set sail, remember that every step, every stumble, and every pivot brings you closer to your destination. So, brace yourself for the odyssey of a lifetime, and remember that it's not the destination, but the journey itself, that defines the true essence of entrepreneurship.
Gold prices are slightly up and near the daily high, while silver is modestly down in midday U.S. trading Thursday. The markets are seeing some price consolidation following recent solid gains. Mild profit-taking from the shorter-term futures traders was featured in earlier trading. Still-keener risk aversion in the general marketplace as the Middle East crisis continues to play out will very likely keep a floor under the two safe-haven metals for at least the near term. December gold was last up $2.20 at $1,970.60 and December silver was down $0.079 at $23.01.
The U.S. marketplace highlight of the day Thursday is the midday speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to the Economic Club of New York. Powell’s remarks will be closely scrutinized by the marketplace, to see if he wavers from his heretofore hawkish tone on U.S. monetary policy.
Rising bond yields and high tensions in the Middle East are squelching the equities market bulls late this week. Reports said Hamas is firing more missiles into Israel. This comes after an explosion at a Gaza hospital killed over 500 people earlier this week. U.S. and Israeli intelligence say the explosion was caused by Palestinian militants.
Asian and European stocks were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are slightly down at midday. Downbeat quarterly earnings from EV maker Tesla has dampened Wall Street spirits Thursday.
Time to increase allocation to gold – JPMorgan's Kolanovic
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up and trading around $88.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is closing in on 5.0% and is presently fetching around 4.9%.
Technically, December gold futures prices hit a six-week high Wednesday. Recent price action suggests that a market bottom is in place. The bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. A five-month-old price downtrend on the daily bar chart has been negated and prices are now trending higher. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $2,000.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,875.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $1,975.80 and then at the August high of $1,980.20. First support is seen at today’s low of $1,957.00 and then at $1,950.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.
December silver futures bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. A three-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart has been negated and prices are now trending up. Recent price action suggests a market bottom is in place. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $24.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $21.60. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $23.185 and then at this week’s high of $23.49. Next support is seen at today’s low of $22.785 and then at this week’s low of $22.535. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.
December N.Y. copper closed up 45 points at 359.15 cents today. Prices closed near mid-range today. The copper bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a choppy, 2.5-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 378.60 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 340.00 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 363.05 cents and then at 367.45 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 353.15 cents and then at 350.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5.
The Rigged Financial System: How the ‘Common Man’ is Being Left Behind
The financial system, often seen as the bedrock of our global economies, paints a picture of fairness and impartiality. It's the engine that allocates resources and propels economic growth. Yet, the more we delve into the inner workings of this vast mechanism, the more it becomes apparent that it is not as equitable as it seems. The financial system is rigged as corporations, governments, and people in power have trillions of dollars of debt they can't possibly pay back, leading to inflation and regulation that negatively affects us all.
The huge gap in the standard of living paints a concerning picture, further supporting the fact that this system is rigged to benefit a privileged few while leaving the majority to bear the brunt. In this article, we will embark on a journey through the dilemma of systemic flaws and inequities deeply ingrained in the financial system. The goal is to shine a light on the mechanisms that perpetuate this rigging and unveil its far-reaching consequences on society.
The rigged financial system is like a well-kept secret that everyone knows about. As we explore this complex issue, we aim to provide a clearer understanding of how these mechanisms work without drowning you in jargon. It's a story that affects us all, and it's time we uncover the layers of complexity and injustice that have remained in the shadows. Let's dig deeper into how this rigged financial system is leaving the common person way, way behind.
Do you ever feel like you're having a hard time keeping up with the cost of living? Well, it's not just you; the financial system is rigged, but not in the way you might think. In short, corporations, governments, and the people in power have trillions, possibly quadrillions of dollars of debt that they can't possibly pay back. They can either default and lose everything or devalue this debt through inflation and keep it under control through regulation, and to our collective detriment, they've chosen the second option.
The financial system is rigged due to debt, inflation, and manipulation by corporations and governments. Still, individuals can navigate and improve their financial situation by understanding the system and making strategic investments. The disconnect between money and currency has led to inflation and devaluation, causing financial problems for the average person who is paid in a losing currency and trying to buy valuable things. At the same time, the government manipulates the cost of borrowing money.
Opportunity is supposed to be part and parcel of everyone’s dream, right? Well, unfortunately, reality says otherwise. Buckle up because we're about to take a roller-coaster ride through the awful numbers and depressing facts. You know those heartwarming stories you occasionally hear about a poor person who made it big? Yeah, those are like finding a unicorn in a sea of whales. They're that rare. The truth is that things are getting worse on the inequality front, and not just because of uncontrollable forces like technology and globalization.
No, the most disturbing part is that the ones making it worse are the ones who are supposed to be in charge. And the grand prize for rigging the system goes to the inherited plutocracy! The very people who have benefited from the rigged system are the same ones, making it even more rigged. For instance, in the United States, in the past 40 years, the income share of the top 0.1% has more than quadrupled, while the top 1% has enjoyed an almost doubled share. Meanwhile, the bottom 90% have seen their income share decline.
Wages at the bottom have remained stagnant for about 60 years (even with inflation taken into account). It's like time froze for the working class while the elite continued to live it up. And if you thought things couldn't get worse, think again. Those with a high school education or less have actually seen their incomes fall over the past few decades, especially the poor fellas. When inequality increases, hope decreases. People start losing faith in the system, and that's when things take a dark turn.
Desperation leads to increased deaths from suicide, drug overdoses, and alcohol-related causes. Now you can see why we must discuss this rigged financial system. It's true; markets don't exist in a vacuum. Rules and regulations shape them. Surprise, surprise, those rules can be designed to favor one group over another.
Market manipulation is just one of the delightful practices in which the financial sector indulges. They get away with imposing outrageous interest rates on borrowers and creating securities set up to fail. And let's not forget their love for illegal activities like insider trading. They really know how to keep things spicy, don't they? But wait, there's more, rent extraction! This fancy term refers to the withdrawal of income from the national pie that is way more than these supposed "contributors" deserve. It's like a never-ending buffet for the elite. They get to feast on public resources like oil at ridiculously low prices while the rest of us struggle to make ends meet.
The Regulatory Capture
Regulatory capture is a troubling reality in the world of finance, and we can illustrate its impact through real-life examples. Imagine a scenario where a regulatory agency, let's call it the Financial Oversight Commission (FOC), is responsible for overseeing the banking industry. The FOC is supposed to ensure that banks operate fairly and within the bounds of the law, protecting the interests of the public.
However, powerful banking lobbyists and executives have increasingly influenced the FOC over time. These individuals have deep pockets, employ well-connected influencers, and even hire former FOC employees, creating a revolving door between the regulatory agency and the very industry it's meant to regulate.
This regulatory capture results in the FOC crafting policies and regulations that favor the banks rather than safeguarding the public's interests. Let's look at a real example to understand this better: The financial crisis of 2008.
During the lead-up to the crisis, some banks engaged in risky lending practices and bundled those risky loans into complex financial products. These practices were a ticking time bomb for the financial system. One would expect a diligent regulatory agency to spot these issues and intervene before disaster strikes. However, the FOC and other regulatory bodies failed to act decisively.
Why? Because they had been influenced and captured by the very financial institutions engaging in these risky behaviors. High-powered lobbyists and industry insiders shaped regulations in ways that allowed these practices to continue unchecked. The result was a devastating financial crisis that affected millions of people worldwide, leading to job losses, foreclosures, and a massive economic downturn.
In the aftermath of the 2008 crisis, there were calls for reform and increased transparency in financial regulation. However, breaking free from the clutches of regulatory capture remains an ongoing challenge. Both policymakers and the public must be aware of these issues and work toward restoring trust and accountability in the financial regulatory system. The influence of unofficial financial regulations like ESG is increasing, surpassing official regulations, and it's coming from unaccountable international organizations. These crazy regulations make things more difficult for the ordinary person than they already are.
Rewriting the economic game, where the rules constantly change, the common man is left scratching his head, wondering when it will ever be his turn to win. Well, my friends, I hate to break it to you, but the game has been rigged for quite some time now. And in the land of the free and the home of the brave, it's the rich who are winning big time with the market power of corporations.
These powerhouses have always had a leg up on the little guy and girl. While other developed countries have some regulations to level the playing field, American corporations have been given free rein to run wild. Just think about it. These mega-corporations have more influence over lives than we even realize. They control the products we buy, the services we use, and the jobs we desperately cling to. And with their untamed market power, they can squeeze every last drop of profit out of us while we're left wondering how the hell we got here.
Remember the good old days when a hard day's work meant a decent paycheck and a secure future? Yeah, those days are long gone. The shift to a service-sector economy has left workers high and dry while the fat cats continue to line their pockets. You see, with the rigged rules of the game, workers have lost their bargaining power. Wages have stagnated, benefits have vanished, and job security is a thing of the past. And while we're busy trying to make ends meet, the rich keep getting richer, laughing all the way to the bank.
Here's the real kicker: This is happening because the political system is rigged. Gerrymandering, voter suppression, and the influence of money have turned democracy into a puppet show, with the rich pulling all the strings. No matter how hard we fight for change, the system is designed to keep us down. The roar of corporate dollars has drowned out the voices of the common man. And while we're left to pick up the pieces, the elite few continue to thrive, building golden towers with people’s blood, sweat, and tears.
The rewriting of the economic game has left us fighting an uphill battle with no end in sight. But fear not, for together with the rise of entrepreneurs, we can reclaim what is rightfully ours. We can demand a fair and just society where the ordinary person is no longer left behind. But until that day comes, we must continue to shine a light on the corruption and inequality that plague the world's nations.
We must use our voices, votes, and collective power to dismantle the rigged system and build a future where everyone has a fair chance at success. The economic game may be rigged, but if history has taught us anything, it's that the common person can rise and change the rules. So, let's roll up our sleeves and get to work because a brighter future is within our reach. And together, we can make it a reality.
Considering all this, wealth is concentrated in the hands of a few, leaving the rest struggling to make ends meet. Wages at the bottom are stagnant, job losses are rising, and despair is becoming all too common. But it's not just the forces of nature that have led us to this dire situation. No, it's the laws and regulations put in place by those who hold power. The system is rigged in favor of the wealthy, with market manipulation, financial sector exploitation, and rent extraction all contributing to the growing divide.
Special favors and favorable regulations further exacerbate inequality and make it harder for the common man to get ahead. And let's not forget about the rewriting of the economic game. The market power of corporations has grown exponentially while the power of workers has dwindled. This is not an accident but a result of a rigged political system where gerrymandering, voter suppression, and the influence of money reign supreme. It's a vicious cycle where economic inequality leads to political inequality, and ‘we, the people,’ are left to suffer the consequences. It's time to fight for a fair and equitable society where everyone has a chance to thrive, not just the privileged few. Together, we can dismantle the rigged system and build a brighter future for all.
About: Prince Ibenne. (Nigeria) Prince is passionate about helping people understand the crypto-verse through his easily digestible articles. He is an enthusiastic supporter of blockchain technology and cryptocurrency. Find me at my Markethive Profile Page | My Twitter Account | and my LinkedIn Profile.
Gold prices are solidly higher and hit a six-week high in midday U.S. trading Wednesday. Silver prices are slightly up and scored a three-week high. Keener risk aversion in the marketplace as the Middle East violence is flaring up has traders and investors seeking out safe-haven assets like gold and silver. December gold was last up $26.70 at $1,962.40 and December silver was up $0.016 at $23.04.
Risk aversion has up-ticked at mid-week after a bombing at a hospital in Gaza has reportedly killed over 500 people. Hamas blamed an Israel air strike, while Israel blamed an errant Hamas missile. Reports said U.S. military intelligence says the explosion was caused by a Palestinian military group. Reads a Barrons headline today: “Rate fears, bond yields, war; market concern grows.”
U.S. stock indexes are lower at midday.
In overnight news, China got some mixed economic data today. China's third-quarter GDP came in at up 4.9%, year-on-year, helped by resilient consumer spending. However, China's third-quarter GDP came in below the second quarter's reading of up 6.3%, year-on-year. That puts the world's second-largest economy on course to hit an annual GDP target of around 5% for 2023, Bloomberg reported. GDP got a boost from strong retail sales in September that posted the biggest increase since May. On the downside, China property investment contraction accelerated during September. Home sales continued to decline and construction of new homes dropped almost 24% in the first nine months of the year. Funding for property development dropped 13.5%, year-on-year.
Off the record: silver looks better than gold in 2024 according to LBMA survey
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $88.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is presently fetching around 4.85%.
Technically, December gold futures prices hit a six-week high today. Recent price action suggests that a market bottom is in place. The bulls have gained the slight overall near-term technical advantage. A five-month-old price downtrend on the daily bar chart has been negated and prices are now trending higher. Bulls' next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $2,000.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,875.00. First resistance is seen at today's high of $1,975.80 and then at the August high of $1,980.20. First support is seen at $1,950.00 and then at today's low of $1,935.90. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.
December silver futures prices hit a three-week high early on today. The silver bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. A three-month-old downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart has been negated and prices are now trending up. Recent price action suggests a market bottom is in place. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $24.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $21.60. First resistance is seen at today's high of $23.49 and then at $23.80. Next support is seen at today's low of $22.84 and then at this week's low of $22.535. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.
December N.Y. copper closed up 25 points at 358.10 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The copper bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a choppy, 2.5-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 378.60 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 340.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today's high of 363.05 cents and then at 367.45 cents. First support is seen at this week's low of 353.15 cents and then at 350.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5.
Gold, silver firmer despite hotter U.S. CPI and rising bond yields
Gold and silver prices are a bit higher in midday U.S. trading Tuesday. The precious metals bulls are holding their own despite a stronger-than-expected U.S. retail sales report and rising U.S. Treasury yields this week. December gold was last up $1.80 at $1,936.10 and December silver was up $0.23 at $22.995.
The gold market lost some of its overnight gains in early U.S. trading when the U.S. retail sales report for September showed a much-stronger-than-expected gain of 0.7% on the month, versus market expectations for a 0.3% rise. The report boosted U.S. Treasury yields and falls into the camp of the U.S. monetary policy hawks, who want to see more interest rate increases in the coming months.
Asian and European stocks were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are lightly lower at midday. While the Israeli-Hamas war remains near the front burner of the marketplace, there have been no major, markets-moving developments over the past week. Traders and investors are starting to focus more on other, more normal economic and business factors that are impacting the marketplace, such as economic reports, earnings reports and central bank rhetoric. But make no mistake, the Middle East conflict will not just fade away and there are likely to be markets-moving surprises develop in the coming days and weeks.
Rising tail risks in the market warrant holding more than 6% of your portfolio in gold – BIS' Zöllner
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly down. Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $86.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is presently fetching 4.819%.
Technically, December gold futures see recent price action suggesting a market bottom is in place. However, the bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. A five-month-old price downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart, but just barely. Bulls' next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $2,000.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the October low of $1,823.50. First resistance is seen at last week's high of $1,946.20 and then at $1,950.00. First support is seen at this week's low of $1,921.20 and then at $1,913.60. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.
December silver futures prices hit a three-week high today and scored a bullish “outside day” up. The silver bears have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. A three-month-old downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart, but just barely. Recent price action suggests a market bottom is in place. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $24.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $21.60. First resistance is seen at today's high of $23.18 and then at $23.50. Next support is seen at today's low of $22.535 and then at $22.25. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.
December N.Y. copper closed down 70 points at 357.50 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session high and hit a nearly 12-month low early on today. The copper bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a choppy, 2.5-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 378.60 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 340.00 cents. First resistance is seen at this week's high of 360.55 cents and then at 365.00 cents. First support is seen at today's low of 353.15 cents and then at 350.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5.
Marketing Survival 101: Navigating 2024's Shifting Trends and Tools
Marketing is an ever-changing industry that requires businesses to stay ahead of the curve to remain competitive. As we approach 2024, there are several trends and tools that marketers should be aware of to survive in the industry. With the evolution of marketing, staying up-to-date with the latest marketing trends and tools is essential for businesses to maintain a competitive edge.
Understanding the 2024 marketing trends is crucial for businesses to build effective marketing strategies. Digital marketing tools are expected to become more complex and sophisticated, making it essential for businesses to adapt to these changes. The role of AI in marketing is also expected to grow, with businesses leveraging AI to improve customer experience and drive sales. Building trust and authenticity with customers will also be essential for businesses to succeed in 2024 and beyond.
Key Takeaways
Staying up-to-date with the latest marketing trends and tools is crucial for businesses to maintain a competitive edge.
Digital marketing tools are expected to become more complex and sophisticated in 2024.
Building trust and authenticity with customers will be essential for businesses to succeed in 2024 and beyond.
The Evolution of Marketing
Marketing has come a long way since its inception, and it continues to evolve rapidly. With the advent of digital technology, marketing has shifted from physical to digital. This shift has brought about a significant change in the way businesses interact with their customers. The incorporation of AI and machine learning has further revolutionized marketing, making it more efficient and effective. The emergence of the metaverse has added a new dimension to marketing, creating new opportunities for businesses to engage with their customers.
The Shift from Physical to Digital
The shift from physical to digital has been one of the most significant changes in marketing. With the rise of the internet and social media, businesses can now reach a global audience with ease. Digital marketing has become an essential part of any marketing strategy, and businesses that fail to adapt to this shift risk falling behind.
Digital marketing encompasses a wide range of activities, including search engine optimization (SEO), social media marketing, email marketing, and content marketing. Businesses must have a strong online presence to succeed in today's digital age.
Incorporation of AI and Machine Learning
The incorporation of AI and machine learning has revolutionized marketing, making it more efficient and effective. AI-powered tools can analyze vast amounts of data, providing businesses with valuable insights into their customers' behavior and preferences. This information can be used to create personalized marketing campaigns that resonate with customers.
Machine learning algorithms can also be used to optimize marketing campaigns in real-time. For example, if an ad campaign is not performing well, the algorithm can automatically adjust the targeting parameters to improve its performance.
Emergence of the Metaverse
The emergence of the metaverse has added a new dimension to marketing. The metaverse is a virtual world that is created by the convergence of physical and digital realities. It allows businesses to create immersive experiences for their customers, enabling them to interact with products and services in a virtual environment.
Virtual reality (VR) and augmented reality (AR) technologies are key components of the metaverse. These technologies can be used to create virtual showrooms, product demos, and other interactive experiences that engage customers in new and exciting ways.
In conclusion, marketing continues to evolve rapidly, driven by digital transformation, AI and machine learning, and the emergence of the metaverse. Businesses must adapt to these changes to remain competitive in today's marketplace. By embracing these new technologies and trends, businesses can create more effective marketing campaigns that resonate with their customers.
Understanding the 2024 Marketing Trends
As the world becomes more digitally-focused, marketing trends are shifting to keep up with the changing times. In 2024, businesses will need to stay ahead of the curve to remain competitive. Here are some of the top marketing trends to watch out for in 2024.
Predictive Analytics and Data-driven Decisions
Predictive analytics is a tool that uses data, statistical algorithms, and machine learning techniques to identify the likelihood of future outcomes based on historical data. In 2024, businesses will increasingly rely on predictive analytics to make data-driven decisions. By analyzing data from various sources, businesses can predict customer behavior and preferences, identify trends, and make informed decisions about marketing strategies.
Personalization and Customization
Personalization and customization will continue to be important in 2024. Customers expect personalized experiences, and businesses that fail to deliver will be left behind. In 2024, businesses will use data to personalize marketing messages, product recommendations, and customer experiences. Personalization will go beyond just using a customer's name in an email. Instead, businesses will use data to personalize every aspect of the customer experience, from product recommendations to customer support.
Conversational Marketing and Chatbots
Conversational marketing is a two-way dialogue between a brand and a customer that takes place in real-time. In 2024, businesses will increasingly use chatbots and other conversational marketing tools to engage with customers. Chatbots can help businesses provide personalized customer support, answer frequently asked questions, and even make product recommendations. As chatbots become more sophisticated, they will be able to handle more complex interactions, such as booking appointments or placing orders.
In conclusion, businesses that stay on top of these marketing trends in 2024 will be better equipped to succeed in the digital age. By using predictive analytics, personalization, and conversational marketing, businesses can create more engaging and effective marketing strategies that resonate with their target audience.
Digital Marketing Tools for 2024
Digital marketing is constantly evolving, and 2024 is no exception. As businesses strive to stay ahead of the competition, they need to keep up with the latest trends and tools. Here are some digital marketing tools that will be essential in 2024.
SEO and Long-tail Keywords
Search engine optimization (SEO) is still one of the most important digital marketing tools. In 2024, businesses will need to focus on long-tail keywords to improve their SEO. Long-tail keywords are longer and more specific phrases that people use to search for something. They are more targeted and have less competition than short-tail keywords. Businesses that use long-tail keywords will have a better chance of ranking higher in search engine results pages (SERPs).
Programmatic Advertising
Programmatic advertising is an automated way of buying and selling digital advertising. In 2024, programmatic advertising will become even more important as businesses look for more efficient ways to reach their target audience. With programmatic advertising, businesses can target specific demographics, interests, and behaviors. This means they can deliver more relevant ads to the right people at the right time.
Social Media Platforms
Social media platforms will continue to be an essential digital marketing tool in 2024. Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube, and TikTok are just a few of the platforms that businesses can use to reach their target audience. In 2024, businesses will need to focus on creating more engaging and interactive content to stand out on social media. This could include live videos, stories, and user-generated content.
In conclusion, digital marketing tools are constantly evolving, and businesses need to keep up with the latest trends to stay ahead of the competition. In 2024, businesses will need to focus on SEO and long-tail keywords, programmatic advertising, and social media platforms to reach their target audience. By using these tools effectively, businesses can improve their digital marketing strategy and achieve their goals.
The Role of AI in Marketing
Artificial Intelligence (AI) has been making waves in the marketing industry in recent years. As technology continues to evolve, AI is becoming an increasingly important tool for marketers looking to stay ahead of the curve. In this section, we will explore the various ways in which AI is being used in marketing, including customer engagement, marketing operations, and generative AI in content creation.
AI in Customer Engagement
One of the most significant benefits of AI in marketing is its ability to enhance customer engagement. Chatbots, for example, are becoming increasingly popular as a way to provide customers with instant support and assistance. By using Natural Language Processing (NLP), chatbots can understand and respond to customer queries in real-time, providing a seamless customer experience.
Another way in which AI is being used in customer engagement is through personalized recommendations. By using machine learning algorithms, marketers can analyze customer data to identify patterns and preferences, allowing them to provide personalized recommendations and offers to individual customers.
AI in Marketing Operations
AI is also being used to streamline marketing operations, making it easier for marketers to manage campaigns and track performance. For example, AI-powered tools can analyze data from multiple sources, including social media, email, and website analytics, to provide insights into customer behavior and campaign performance. This allows marketers to make data-driven decisions and optimize their campaigns for maximum impact.
Generative AI in Content Creation
Finally, generative AI is being used in content creation to automate the process of creating high-quality content. For example, ChatGPT is an AI-powered tool that can generate human-like text based on a given prompt. This can be used to create blog posts, social media content, and other types of marketing materials, saving marketers time and resources.
Overall, AI is becoming an increasingly important tool for marketers looking to stay ahead of the curve. By leveraging the power of AI in customer engagement, marketing operations, and content creation, marketers can improve their campaigns' performance and provide a better customer experience.
Building Trust and Authenticity
In 2024, building trust and authenticity will continue to be important in marketing strategies. Consumers are becoming increasingly wary of companies that do not prioritize transparency and authenticity. Companies that prioritize these values will be more successful in building long-term relationships with their customers.
Transparency in Data Use
One of the ways companies can build trust with their customers is by being transparent about how they use customer data. Customers want to know what data is being collected, how it is being used, and who has access to it. Companies that are transparent about their data use are more likely to build trust with their customers.
To achieve transparency in data use, companies should consider creating a privacy policy that clearly outlines their data collection and usage practices. They should also ensure that customers have control over their data by providing options to opt-out of data collection and allowing customers to access, modify, or delete their data.
Real-time and Engaging Content
In 2024, real-time and engaging content will be crucial in building authenticity with customers. Customers want to feel connected to the brands they support, and real-time content can help companies build that connection.
Real-time content can include live streams, social media updates, and interactive content. By providing real-time content, companies can show customers that they are listening and responding to their needs.
Engaging content is also important in building authenticity. Companies that provide content that is informative, entertaining, or useful to their customers are more likely to build trust and loyalty. Engaging content can include blog posts, videos, infographics, and more.
Overall, building trust and authenticity will continue to be important in marketing strategies in 2024. Companies that prioritize transparency, real-time content, and engaging content will be more successful in building long-term relationships with their customers.
Marketing Strategies for Business Resilience
In today's constantly changing business environment, companies must have marketing strategies that can withstand economic downturns, emerging trends, and shifting consumer behaviors. Here are some effective marketing strategies that businesses can adopt to build resilience:
Targeting and Lead Generation
One of the most effective ways to build resilience is by targeting the right audience and generating high-quality leads. Companies can achieve this by understanding their customers' needs and preferences, segmenting their audience, and creating personalized marketing messages that resonate with their target audience. This approach not only helps companies attract and retain customers but also helps them optimize their marketing spend and improve their ROI.
Investment in Digital Transformation
Investing in digital transformation is another key strategy for building business resilience. Companies that embrace digital technologies can improve their operational efficiency, enhance their customer experience, and gain a competitive advantage. This includes investing in tools such as customer relationship management (CRM) software, marketing automation platforms, and data analytics tools. By leveraging these tools, companies can gain valuable insights about their customers, optimize their marketing campaigns, and improve their overall business performance.
Adapting to Emerging Trends
Adapting to emerging trends is also crucial for building business resilience. Companies that keep up with the latest trends and technologies can better anticipate changes in the market and adjust their marketing strategies accordingly. This includes staying up-to-date with emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI), voice search, and augmented reality (AR). By embracing these trends, companies can create innovative marketing campaigns that capture the attention of their target audience and drive business growth.
In summary, building business resilience requires a combination of effective marketing strategies, investment in digital transformation, and adaptation to emerging trends. By adopting these strategies, companies can build a strong foundation for growth, even in the face of economic uncertainty and shifting consumer behaviors.
Conclusion
In conclusion, businesses must adapt to the shifting marketing trends and tools to ensure success in 2024. Marketing strategies must be tailored to meet the needs of the target audience and align with the latest business trends. Digital marketing strategy is crucial in today's world, and companies must embrace new technologies and platforms to stay ahead of the competition.
To survive in 2024, companies must focus on providing value to their customers through personalized experiences and relevant content. They must also keep up with the latest trends in video content, social media marketing, and cookie-less tracking.
In summary, the key to success lies in being flexible and agile in adapting to the changing marketing landscape. With the right marketing strategies and tools, businesses can thrive in 2024 and beyond.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the predicted macro trends for marketing in 2024?
According to industry experts, the macro trends that are expected to shape the marketing landscape in 2024 include the rise of artificial intelligence (AI), the increasing importance of personalization, the growing influence of social media, and the emergence of new technologies such as augmented reality (AR) and virtual reality (VR).
What are the global marketing trends for 2024?
Global marketing trends for 2024 include a focus on sustainability and environmental responsibility, the importance of mobile-first strategies, and the growing role of voice search and smart speakers. Additionally, marketers are expected to continue to prioritize social media and influencer marketing as key channels for reaching consumers.
What are the top business trends that will impact marketing in 2024?
In 2024, businesses are expected to prioritize customer experience and brand purpose, with an emphasis on building trust and establishing long-term relationships with customers. Additionally, businesses are expected to embrace new technologies and data-driven approaches to marketing, with a focus on delivering personalized experiences across all channels.
What are the predicted design trends for marketing in 2024?
Design trends for marketing in 2024 are expected to include a continued focus on minimalism and simplicity, with an emphasis on bold typography and bright colors. Additionally, designers are expected to incorporate more animation and interactive elements into their designs, as well as embrace new technologies such as AR and VR to create immersive experiences.
What are the top digital marketing trends for 2024?
Digital marketing trends for 2024 include the continued growth of social media and influencer marketing, the increasing importance of voice search and smart speakers, and the emergence of new technologies such as blockchain and AI. Additionally, marketers are expected to prioritize mobile-first strategies and personalized experiences across all channels.
What are the predicted LinkedIn trends for marketing in 2024?
LinkedIn trends for marketing in 2024 include a focus on building thought leadership and establishing credibility through content marketing and thought-provoking discussions. Additionally, marketers are expected to embrace new LinkedIn features such as LinkedIn Live and LinkedIn Stories to create more engaging and interactive content for their audiences.
Gold is a better diversifier when bonds are this correlated to stocks – TheStreet's Dierking
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Bonds are no longer a very good diversifier as they have become too correlated with equities, making gold and other commodities a superior choice, according to David Dierking, Editor of ETF Focus at TheStreet.
Dierking noted that investors who stuck with the classic 60/40 portfolio over the past couple of years have suffered, as “only a 100/0 portfolio really had a chance at generating positive returns.” And while 5% yields on Treasury bills have looked very attractive recently, long-term Treasury bonds are down 45% from their 2020 peak.
“As the Fed has executed the most aggressive rate hiking cycle in history, it’s lifted bond market volatility to historically high levels,” he said.
Dierking points out that the last time the bond market was this volatile was during the financial crisis, and this volatility has remained elevated for a year and a half. “I probably don’t need to tell you that when market volatility is at 15-year highs and has been that way for the past six quarters, nothing good usually comes of it,” he said.
With inflation still a problem, bond market volatility will likely remain high along with yields, so going heavily into Treasuries and cash isn’t the best move, he said, and investors should consider rotating part of their portfolio into gold and other commodities instead.
“Treasuries have a long history of acting as a great diversifier to stocks (the past two years notwithstanding),” Dierking wrote. “Their low correlation to other riskier asset classes helps to reduce overall portfolio risk and smooth out some of the volatility that occurs on a regular basis in the financial markets.”
But he said gold and commodities do the same thing, perhaps even better. “Gold has virtually no correlation at all to stocks, making it perhaps the ultimate diversifier,” he said. “Commodities also have a low correlation to stocks, but their price movements are often based more heavily on where we are in the market cycle.”
Dierking shows the relative performance of stocks, bonds, gold and commodities over the past 15 years.
“The historical absolute returns of each asset class aren’t what’s important here since the future is likely to look very different,” he said. “What’s much less likely to change are risk levels and inter-asset correlations. Equity correlation to both bonds and gold, historically, have been very low and the correlation to commodities, while higher, is still at the level where there is significant diversification benefits.”
Dierking wrote that the problem is that stocks and bonds are much more correlated today than in the past, perhaps as high as 0.80. “Plus, when that high correlation is associated with downside risk, it makes the portfolio construction decision that much more complicated,” he said. “While the stock/bond correlation is likely to return to the long-term average eventually, but the short-term solution may be to substitute the temporarily high correlation of bonds for the low correlation of gold and commodities.”
To test this, Dierking created three simulated portfolios: Portfolio #1 holds 100% U.S. Stock Market, Portfolio #2 is 80% U.S. Stock Market and 20% U.S. Bond Market, and Portfolio #3 contains 60% U.S. Stock Market, 20% U.S. Bond Market, 10% Gold, and 10% Commodities.
“You may ask why I would take the 20% away from stocks in Portfolio #3 instead of bonds,” he said. “The answer is that I believe we will soon enter a period where safe haven assets begin behaving like safe haven assets again. That likely comes with the onset of a potential recession in the next couple of quarters. If that happens, the higher return potential will be with bonds, not stocks.”
Dierking then back tests the three portfolios over the past 16 years.
“The all-stock portfolio produced better returns on an absolute basis than did the more diversified portfolios, but it also came with much more risk,” he noted. “The 60/20/10/10 portfolio lagged the 100/0 portfolio by about 2% annually, but it was also about 30% less volatile. Its maximum drawdown over the measurement period was also only about 2/3 of the all-stock portfolio.”
Dierking said that the most interesting finding was the comparative risk-adjusted returns. “The Sharpe and Sortino ratios for the 100/0 and 60/20/10/10 portfolios are virtually identical, which means that they’ve delivered the same amount of return for each unit of risk,” he said. “The more diversified portfolio just dials things back by about 30%.”
He added that this remains true when annual returns are analyzed. “There’s a very consistent pattern (with just a few outliers) where the gain/loss on the 60/20/10/10 portfolio is less than that of the other two,” he said.
Dierking wrote that while investors are always looking for ways to maximize returns, most don’t realize that they can get those returns while minimizing downside risk. “Losing less is just as valuable as gaining more,” he said. “If we are indeed trending towards a recessionary environment, the lower risk factor of the 60/20/10/10 portfolio could be incredibly valuable.”
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The monetary system today: 'Council of elders deciding the price of money' – Lyn Alden%20(Facebook%20Post).png)
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Time to increase allocation to gold – JPMorgan's Kolanovic
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Rising tail risks in the market warrant holding more than 6% of your portfolio in gold – BIS' Zöllner
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