Strong USDX rising US Treasury yields stingy Fed punish gold silver prices

Strong USDX, rising U.S. Treasury yields, stingy Fed punish gold, silver prices

Gold and silver prices are sharply lower near midday Monday. The safe-haven metals are being hit hard by a higher U.S. dollar index, rising U.S. Treasury yields and weaker crude oil prices to start the trading week. An aggressively tight monetary policy from the U.S. Federal Reserve is also serving as an anchor on the precious metals markets. December gold was last down $34.30 at $1,675.00 and December silver was down $0.61 at $19.645.

Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are weaker at midday. U.S. government offices and many banks are closed Monday for the Columbus Day national holiday. Stock market traders will focus on a barrage of corporate earnings reports out this week.

Risk aversion is still elevated. The Russia-Ukraine war has escalated as Russia launched missiles into several Ukrainian cities after a strategic bridge for Russia in the Crimea region suffered major damage from explosions, with Ukraine’s military likely the culprit. Meantime, North Korea has test-fired ballistic missiles to provoke the West in an already-tense global geopolitical environment.

The short-squeeze won't last, silver price to end the year lower warns Metals Focus

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index solidly higher. Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $92.00 a barrel. The U.S. Treasury 10-year not yield is presently fetching 3.9%.

Traders are looking ahead to key U.S. inflation reports on Wednesday and Thursday. The producer price index for September is out Wednesday morning. The consumer price index report for September is out Thursday, which is expected to come in at up 8.1%, year-on-year, following a rise of 8.3% in August.

Technically, the gold futures bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and gained fresh power on momentum today. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the October high of $1,738.70. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the September low of $1,622.20. First resistance is seen at $1,700.00 and then at today’s high of $1,707.40. First support is seen at $1,662.00 and then at $1,650.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0

The silver bears have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the October high of $21.31. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $18.00. First resistance is seen at $20.00 and then at today’s high of $20.21. Next support is seen at $19.25 and then at $19.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

December N.Y. copper closed up 560 points at 344.35 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. The copper bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the September high of 369.25 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the July low of 315.55 cents. First resistance is seen at 350.00 cents and then at the September high of 359.30 cents. First support is seen at last week’s low of 335.20 cents and then at the September low of 324.30 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

By Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

Tim Moseley

Gold and silver need more than a short squeeze

Gold and silver need more than a short squeeze

Precious metal analysts have been warning investors for a few weeks now that a sharp downtrend through the summer pushed gold and silver into oversold territory. Bearish sentiment in the marketplace is at its highest level in years, and both precious metals were ripe for a short squeeze.

Those forecasts proved to be correct, with silver seeing, at its peak, a 12% gain this week, as prices pushed above $21 an ounce. Meanwhile, the gold market saw a 4% rally as prices drove above $1,730 an ounce.

However, heading into the weekend, momentum is starting to wane as gold ends the week testing support at $1,700 an ounce and silver tries to hold on to $20. While this past week's rally has been a welcome move for some, analysts note that the market still lacks a critical ingredient: bullish investors.

Ultimately, the gold and silver market lacks solid bullish conviction to see a sustained rally for now. Many investors continue to sit on the sidelines as the Federal Reserve and the U.S. dollar dominate financial markets.

Despite the growing threat of a severe global recession, the Federal Reserve continues to aggressively raise interest rates, which is supporting the U.S. dollar at its highest level in 20 years. At the same time, bond yields are near 12-year highs. This is not a positive environment for gold.

These headwinds for gold are not expected to ease anytime soon. Even some market heavyweights are starting to embrace the idea of a strong U.S. dollar. Ray Dalio made headlines this week, announcing on Twitter that he no longer thinks cash is trash, a position he has held for a few years.

"The facts have changed and I've changed my mind about cash as an asset: I no longer think cash is trash," wrote Dalio. The following day Dalio announced that he would step down as Bridgewater's co-CIO

Last month, Dalio said that he expects the Federal Reserve to push interest rates to 4.5%, which will cause the S&P 500 to fall another 20%. In the current environment, the U.S. dollar is seen as the safest asset right now.

There is a growing divergence between physical gold and the paper market – WisdomTree

The reality is that gold continues to face a difficult environment and the volatility we have seen this week can frustrate many investors; however, one recurring message we keep hearing from market analysts is that investors need to look past this volatility and keep their eye on the larger picture.

The Federal Reserve is maintaining its aggressive monetary policy action in a vacuum. They are focusing on the domestic labor market and ignoring the impact that the U.S. dollar is having on the global economy.

While the U.S. economy has remained relatively resilient, the global marketplace is at a breaking point. Monday, the United Nations even stepped into the debate and warned that central bank rate hikes will push the global economy, particularly emerging nations, into a recession.

In its latest economic projections, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development lowered its economic growth forecasts seeing global GDP expanding 2.5% this year, down from its previous estimate of 2.6%. At the same time, global growth is expected to slow to 2.2% in 2023.

The advice I am hearing from market analysts is that even as this short squeeze fails, the current price still represents long-term value.

By Neils Christensen

For Kitco News

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

Tim Moseley

How to interpret today’s jobs report and what does it mean fo price ofgold ?

 How to interpret today’s jobs report, and what does it mean fo price of gold ?

Today’s jobs report for September showed a decrease in monthly gains, with 263,000 new jobs added last month, a decline from the prior month in which 315,000 new jobs were added.

The deep impact it had on almost every asset class in the financial markets was not because of the tepid numbers but rather hopes by the Federal Reserve that these numbers would be even lower. The Federal Reserve had hoped that today’s report would reveal even slower growth because that would indicate progress by the Federal Reserve in reducing inflation.

Inflation is still greatly elevated at a 40-year high even after the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates at every FOMC meeting since March. The Fed raised rates by 25 basis points in March, 50 basis points in May, and 75 basis points in June, July, and September. The Fed took their benchmark Fed funds rate from between 0 and 25 basis points in February to between 300 and 325 basis points in September.

Although today’s report indicated slowing job growth it is believed that this contraction is not enough for Federal Reserve to slow down its current pace of interest-rate hikes.

According to CME’s FedWatch tool, last week there was a 56.5%% probability, yesterday there was a 75.2% probability which today swelled to an 82.3% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise rates by 75 basis points for the fourth consecutive time at the November FOMC meeting. This probability indicator forecast the probability of FOMC rate moves by using the 30-day Fed Funds futures pricing data.

Today’s report had a profound effect on U.S. equities. As of 2:35 PM EDT, the Dow is currently trading off by 661 points a decline of 2.22%. The NASDAQ is currently down 3.75% a decline of approximately 415 points, and the S&P is down 106.16 points or 2.90%.

Today’s report also had a deep impact on gold pricing which opened at $1721 and then traded to a high of $1722.80 before the release of the report which took gold futures basis the most active December contract to today’s low of $1698.40. Gold futures did recover trading to approximately $1714 a few hours after the release of the report. However, as of this writing at 3:20 PM, EDT over the last hour gold has been trading between $1702 and $1706.

So, what does this mean for the future of gold pricing? I believe that although this report is extremely important in an exceedingly important data set that the Federal Reserve will use at their November 2 FOMC meeting, it will be next week’s CPI inflation report for September that will be much more significant. But in terms of the long-term effect of the Federal Reserve on gold pricing, it is highly likely that if the Fed continues to raise rates and inflation remains persistent at some point market participants will have to focus on the high level of inflation rather than being laser-focused on rising rates. If that assumption is correct, it could take gold dramatically higher. But it is also likely that there will be more pain ahead.

Our technical studies indicate that the first level of resistance occurs at $1710 the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement which is based on a very short-term Fibonacci retracement data set from September 28 to October 7. Major resistance occurs at $1738 the recent high of the rally which began after gold hit its lowest value in years at $1621. The first level of support occurs at $1693.80 the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and then at $1689.40 a 42% retracement.

By Gary Wagner

Contributing to kitco.com

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

Tim Moseley

The short-term future of gold’s price is tied to two upcoming reports

The short-term future of gold’s price is tied to two upcoming reports

There is an adage when investigating a crime that says to “follow the money”. In the same way, when investigating where gold prices will be headed short-term it is wise to follow the upcoming reports. Two key reports will shape the short-term direction and price of gold. The first report is tomorrow’s jobs report, and the second report is the next CPI inflation report for September which will be released on October 13.

The forecast for tomorrow’s jobs report according to FactSet is expected to show an increase of 250,000 jobs being added in September which would be down from the 315,000 new jobs added in the prior month. Bloomberg’s predictions are close, forecasting an additional 260,000 new jobs were added in September. The Wall Street Journal is expecting that Friday’s jobs report will show that an additional 275,000 new jobs were added last month. In other words, expectations for tomorrow’s report are fairly aligned and in agreement.

If these various forecasts are correct, it would represent the slowest month of job growth since December 2020. However, analysts and economists will focus on whether or not the labor market is showing signs of contracting as a positive indication. In other words, in the case of tomorrow’s report, good news would be bad news for U.S. equities and gold. This is because slower growth in terms of jobs being added would help the Federal Reserve loosen its pace of rate hikes in its fight to bring down the 40-year high and inflation.

This week’s ADP private sector jobs report showed that 208,000 additional jobs were added last month. These numbers came in above expectations and forecasts. If tomorrow’s jobs report comes in above estimates it would harden the Federal Reserve’s resolve to continue to raise rates at an extremely rapid pace.

But the most important report that the Federal Reserve will use in their decision process about their monetary policy is next week’s CPI inflation report for September. It will provide clear-cut and undeniable evidence as to whether or not recent action by the Federal Reserve has begun to reduce inflationary pressures. Currently, the CPI inflation index is at 8.3% down 0.2% from the prior month’s 8.5%. However, the most recent data on the preferred inflation index of the Federal Reserve the PCE showed that inflation had a slight uptick from the previous month.

According to the CME’s FedWatch tool, there is a 68.7% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise rates for the fourth consecutive time by 75 basis points. This would take the fed funds rate which is currently at 300 – 325 basis points to 375 – 400 basis points on November 3, the final day of the November FOMC meeting.

For those who would like more information simply use this link.

By Gary Wagner

Contributing to kitco.com

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

Tim Moseley

Are You Living In The Past? Stop as well as Begin Making Your Future Better

Are You Living In The Past? Stop as well as Begin Making Your Future Better


Have you ever been informed to stop living in the past? Individuals will often state this in an attempt to give motivating guidance about carrying on with their life. It seems easy, but is it?

Although it appears easy and sufficient, it can be very difficult, particularly if there are ingrained reasons behind living in the past. Substantial previous experiences and memories, such as the death of a liked one, an agonizing breakup, stressful childhood years, and so on, can be contributing elements regarding why you can not simply as well as easily proceed with life.

Possibly, however, you might be holding on to points that are no longer relevant.
You will not be able to completely appreciate the charm of the present if you can not allow going of the past. The hardest part of any kind of modification is beginning and also making the choice.
The primary step is some quiet and also healthy and balanced self-reflection.

Time out for some time and ponder on your present life and also its connected sensations, contrasted to what they could be. Without your active effort, points may boost, extremely slowly. You can do something about it as well as make room for a brand-new better life.

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Here's how to move on.
 

Ways to Properly Release The Past

Focus on the here and now– emphasis, focus, emphasis.

Quit reliving the past and also move on. You will have less time to assume concerning the previous if you proactively focus on the existing.

There will be no room for positivity if you are too obsessed with previous negative happenings. This is entirely a selection you can and also have to make – whether to proceed to harm on your own or to embrace the new day, potentially packed with delight.

Decide to allow everything to go, as well as do this with the sentence.

To make it function, dedicate yourself to "carry on" and also "let it go." If you do not, points will remain to enter circles and can end up getting stuck in the past, once again. Choose that will certainly equip you and also your future, dedicate to it, and also act.

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Make room for forgiveness.

It might be hard to forget what has actually taken place in the past and the bad behaviors of the people involved in it. Getting past animosity and being flexible with others is a crucial action. More to the point, you need the recovery that forgiving one more brings.

Flexibility doesn't necessarily indicate you agree with what they did. It's verification that you desire to relocate on with life and invite any happiness the existing moment brings.

Literally range yourself.

Do not stay affixed to an atmosphere (consisting of people) that keeps you caught in your current conditions as well as mindset. It is emotionally healthy and balanced to distance yourself from a circumstance or person that is creating you to be dispirited. The physical or psychological distance can aid with the "releasing" procedure by not being constantly reminded of anything that impedes your development.

Acceptance is the secret.

Approving your previous experiences and also individuals that have become part of it will certainly help you in the proceeding. You should bear in mind that none of these requirements specify that you are. Practice the art of approval, remake on your own, as well as established on your own free.

Be liable for your own happiness.

If you do, you're allowing someone to totally take over you, at the very least psychologically. You will certainly really feel a substantial sense of happiness as well as empowerment as soon as you take duty for your emotions and feelings.

Review your emotions.

When examining your feelings, you require to recognize what are they bringing to you. If dredging the past reasons for negativeness will adversely influence your here and now, don't dwell on it.

Make some payments.

Going the additional mile to help others can make you feel cozy and also pleased from within. These easy acts of generosity can assist you to set your perspective on a brighter path as well as can have an enduring effect on others and also on your own.

Ideally, this can assist you with your "moving on" phase. Any initiative you make will all be worth it. You can do it – cheers to a brighter future as well as existing.

Have you ever before been told to stop living in the past? Quit experiencing the past as well as relocate. You will have less time to assume concerning the previous if you proactively focus on the present.

If you do not, points will certainly continue to go in circles and can end up getting stuck in the past, once again. Approving your past experiences and the individuals that have actually been part of it will aid you in moving on.

Tim Moseley

How Bitcoin Creates Our New Reality

How Bitcoin Creates Our New Reality

bitcoin

When you hear the phrase "cryptocurrency," you might wonder how it works. This article will cover the blockchain, the SHA-256 algorithm, Peer-to-peer software, and Digital wallets. It will also explain the many other aspects of the bitcoin ecosystem.

Blockchain

Blockchain is a distributed ledger that stores information on monetary transactions, product tracking, and other data. Blockchains can be used to track the movement of food products from shipment to final delivery, helping authorities to trace the source of contamination outbreaks. Blockchains can also be used to help governments protect sensitive data from a single point of failure.

Blockchains can also improve the way we do business. In the past, businesses had to hire attorneys to bridge the trust gap between two parties, costing them extra time and money. Blockchains have changed this equation dramatically. Corruption is common among many organizations, and the introduction of cryptocurrencies can reduce this risk by eliminating the need for third-party intermediaries.

SHA-256 algorithm

The SHA-256 algorithm is the latest addition to the secure hash algorithm family. Originally developed by the National Security Agency, it was published as a federal standard by the National Institute of Standards and Technology in 1995. Its predecessor, the SHA-1 algorithm, had replaced earlier versions of the algorithm, which were widely used in the 1990s.

The SHA-256 algorithm consists of a long sequence of hexadecimal characters that are used to create a hashed message. This hash algorithm makes it nearly impossible to reconstruct the original data from the hash value. A brute-force attack would require a staggering 2256 attempts to achieve this. This means that no two messages will have the same hash value. In addition, minor changes to the original data can change the hash value so much that it obscures the derived hash value.

Peer-to-peer software

Peer-to-peer software allows you to share files directly between computers. It does not require a central server but does require a router. The concept has interesting social implications. The most famous application of peer-to-peer technology is Napster Inc., which shattered the music industry by allowing people to download music for free.

Historically, centralized hubs have captured value through controlling information flow. With this new technology, that paradigm will change. Instead of centralized authority, peer-to-peer networks will allow market participants to interact with one another directly, which will increase transparency. This will reduce coordination costs and increase the value of each interaction.

Digital wallets

Digital wallets have revolutionized the way people make and manage payments. As a result, a growing number of companies have been competing to become the go-to app for everything finance. Some of these apps even let users store access cards and important documents on their smartphones. As these applications gain wider adoption, the ability to deliver reliability, scale, and convenience becomes increasingly important for companies.

The security of digital wallets is also an important concern. The technology behind them uses two layers of security. The first layer is a password. The second layer is a two-stage verification. Some digital wallets also use biometrics for authentication. In addition, these wallets do not store actual account details but instead tokenize them with an authorization code. Finally, payments are encrypted to prevent unauthorized third parties from gaining access to sensitive financial information.

Scammers

One of the hottest trends in the cryptocurrency world is shady investment schemes. The scammers often impersonate established companies and institutions in an attempt to entice people into purchasing cryptocurrency. Some will create news articles or social media ads that seem genuine and even create a fake website to convince victims to send them cryptocurrency. After obtaining their money, they will then divert it to their own personal use. If you suspect you have fallen victim to a scam, report the incident to the FBI or other law enforcement agencies.

Another common scam involves investment in a nonexistent company or a get-rich-quick scheme. With cryptocurrency, these scammers can inflate the price to appear legitimate. They can create fictitious accounts or fake testimonials from happy investors to fool people into thinking they're working with a legitimate business.

Value of bitcoins

The value of Bitcoin is generated from the transfer of input values. The process of mining Bitcoins transfers value-added from other sectors of the global economy. As a result, the production of Bitcoins generates profits and reallocation of wealth. But how does it do this? The key is in the process of mining the Bitcoins.

As the Bitcoin price continues to increase, it is important to remember that the currency's supply is limited. As such, it has turned into a speculative asset. Unlike traditional currencies, Bitcoins do not increase in proportion to their number of users. In addition, the Austrian school argues that prices should fall relative to the currency they are backed by. This means that the value of a Bitcoin is not rising in tandem with its number of users, which is contrary to the theory of monetary value appreciation. Hence, Bitcoin users are not buying Bitcoins to use for payment but rather want to use the cryptocurrency as a speculative investment.

Tim Moseley

Gold silver prices pull back as US dollar bond yields see strong rises

Gold, silver prices pull back as U.S. dollar, bond yields see strong rises

Gold and silver prices are lower in midday U.S. trading Wednesday, on routine downside price corrections following solid gains posted on Monday and Tuesday. A strong rebound in the U.S. dollar index today, along with a significant rise in U.S. Treasury yields, are also bearish outside market elements working against the gold and silver markets at mid-week. December gold was last down $11.60 at $1,718.90 and December silver was down $0.649 at $20.455.

Gold prices down-ticked following the early morning release of a slightly stronger-than-expected U.S. ADP jobs report showing a gain of 208,000 in September. That compares to expectations for a rise of 200,000. Arguably the most important U.S. data point of the week, if not the month, is Friday's employment situation report for September from the Labor Department. The key non-farm jobs number is expected to come in at up 275,000. The August report showed a non-farm jobs rise of 315,000.

Global stock markets were mixed overnight, with European shares mostly weaker and Asian shares mostly firmer. U.S. stock indexes are lower at midday, on routine corrective pullbacks after solid gains posted on Monday and Tuesday that were the largest two-day advance in over two years.

Said market analyst Craig Erlam of OANDA: "It's been a very impressive relief rally, albeit one aided by a rose-tinted interpretation of certain economic indicators and a terrible plunge in the weeks before. This isn't the time to get carried away but it is understandable that we're seeing some relief. It all hangs on whether the (recent economic) data is the start of a weakening trend or just a blip, as with the July inflation drop."

With so many gold and silver bears, it doesn't take much to trigger a short squeeze

In overnight news, New Zealand's central bank raised interest rates by 50 basis points, to 3.5%, and hinted of more to come, with policymakers even debating 75 basis points next time, as core inflation remains too high and labor resources are tight.

Today's OPEC+ meeting saw the cartel make a large crude oil output cut of 2 million barrels per day, in response to a weakening global economic outlook. The crude oil market saw no major reaction, as prices had been rallying in recent days on the expected OPEC cut.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index strongly higher. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $87.75 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 3.78%.

Technically, December gold futures saw a routine corrective pullback. Prices hit a three-week high Tuesday. The gold futures bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, it appears a near-term market bottom is in place. Bulls' next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $1,778.80. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at this week's low of $1,666.50. First resistance is seen at this week's high of $1,738.70 and then at the September high of $1,746.40. First support is seen at today's low of $1,708.80 and then at $1,700.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

December silver futures also saw a routine corrective pullback after hitting a three-month high Tuesday. The silver bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $22.50. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $19.00. First resistance is seen at $21.00 and then at this week's high of $21.31. Next support is seen at $20.00 and then at $19.60. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

December N.Y. copper closed up 120 points at 350.20 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session high again today and hit a nearly three-week high. The copper bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are still in a five-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the September high of 369.25 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the July low of 315.55 cents. First resistance is seen at today's high of 354.50 cents and then at 360.00 cents. First support is seen at Tuesday's low of 340.20 cents and then at this week's low of 335.20 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

By Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

Tim Moseley

Creative Thinking

Creative Thinking 

creative thinking 101

Is creative thinking something you can learn? Absolutely! Here's how.

 

ecosystem for entrepreneurs

Can creative thinking and even spontaneity come from a highly organized approach? Yes! For example, if you watch great comedians closely, you'll see that they have certain habits of mind. Even the most spontaneous ones get better with practice because they're training their brains to find humor in situations. 

In the same way, you can train yourself for more creative thinking. Just start cultivating the right habits in your mind. Why not start training your brain today, with some simple techniques?

Creative Thinking Techniques

Want the mind of a creative inventor? Start redesigning everything you see. Imagine better cars, faster ways to serve food, or better light bulbs. If you do this every day for three weeks, it will become a habit.

Want to be the person who always has something interesting to say? Train yourself to look at things from other perspectives. What would the Buddha say about this? How would a Martian view it? What's the opposite perspective? The point isn't to ask others silly questions, but to ask yourself, to see what interesting ideas result. Do this until it is a habit, and you'll always have something interesting to add to a conversation.

Want systematic creativity in poetry? Put a word on each of the 40 cards; 10 nouns, 10 verbs, 10 adjectives, and 10 random words. Shuffle, deal out four cards, and write a 4-line poem using one of the words in each line. People has had poems published that were created with this technique. Your mind will find a poetic use for any word if you use this method often.

Solve Problems Creatively

Maybe you've heard of problem-solving techniques such as "attributes listing," and "concept combination." More creative thinking doesn't come from just knowing these techniques, though. You have to use them until they become a part of your habitual thinking process.

Imagine you want to invent a new bicycle. If you've trained your mind in "assumption challenging," you'll automatically begin to ask things like, "Are wheels necessary?" "Does it have to go outside?" What if the "bike" was indoors, and pedaling it ran a video screen? You could "steer" through endless different scenes.

You won't always have great ideas, but you'll have enough ideas to make it more likely that you'll find a useful one. This "spontaneous" creativity will be because of your brain training exercise. Why not start developing those habits of creative thinking?

 

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#creative thinking, #creativity, #problemsolving

Tim Moseley

Will this silver and gold price rally last? Here’s what analysts are saying

Will this silver and gold price rally last? Here's what analysts are saying

In a surprise u-turn this week, silver and gold are trading at 3-month and 3-week highs, respectively. But is this a sustainable rally or just a short squeeze?

Even though silver has outperformed gold this week, both precious metals saw impressive performance. Some main drivers were a weaker U.S. dollar, falling U.S. Treasury yields, higher crude oil, and renewed safe-haven buying amid shifting Fed rate hike expectations and disappointing macro data.

"There have been vicious reversals in precious metals, with Gold +5%, Silver +14%, Platinum +9% and Palladium +11% the past five days," said MKS PAMP metals strategist Nicky Shiels. "Gold has essentially erased 1/4 of the downtrend channel worth $460 (from March '22 peak to its September tough), which started from its invasion/war peak price at $2,070/oz; silver has clawed back 2/5th (in 3 days!) of the same downtrend channel."

The United Nations also spoke up this week, urging the Federal Reserve and other central banks to ease up on rate hikes, warning that tighter monetary policies are pushing the global economy into a recession.

"There's still time to step back from the edge of recession," UNCTAD Secretary-General Rebeca Grynspan said. "But the current course of action is hurting the most vulnerable, especially in developing countries and risks tipping the world into a global recession."

Gold climbed around $65 this week, with December Comex gold futures last trading at $1,733.50 an ounce. And silver jumped about $2.25, with December silver futures last at $21.10.

This is an important technical turnaround for gold after six straight months of losses.

"Market speculation around the Fed adopting a less aggressive approach on rate hikes has also sweetened appetite for zero-yielding gold," said FXTM's senior research analyst Lukman Otunuga. "Looking at the technical picture, the breakout above $1,700 may open the doors towards $1,724 and $1,760, respectively. Should prices dip back under $1,700, the next key levels of support can be found at $1,680 and $1,655."

Also helping the precious metals was the reversal of U.K. governments tax plan and fears around Credit Suisse, noted Shiels.

"What is perhaps overlooked is that this massive reversal in risk assets, precious metals & bonds, all started when risk sentiment was max bearish when the BOE intervened to cap rates (last week). There is a growing acceptance that the BOE is not going to be the last central bank to cap rates, and eventually, the U.S. will follow suit," she wrote Tuesday.

However, some analysts are warning the price rally in precious metals is a temporary one – just a short squeeze after a build-up of short positions.

"We see gold losing steam and again drifting toward our target of $1,580/oz over the coming months, as the Fed continues to stick to its hawkish plan to move the Fed Funds above the 4.5% mark," said TD Securities head of commodity strategy Bart Melek. "As such, rates on the short end of the curve will very likely keep rising from current levels and should stay there for the balance of 2023 … Real rates, which are the key drivers of gold, will also rise even faster. This will increase the carry costs and opportunity cost relative to risk-free Treasuries."

The short-term direction will mostly depend on the employment report out of the U.S. this Friday. A higher-than-expected number of jobs added in September would trigger a more hawkish re-pricing of rate hike expectations and would weigh on gold.

"The U.S. domestic story remains rather solid, leaving the Fed tightening prospects alive even if markets have recently revised the expected terminal rate to sub 4.50% levels. We see Friday's payrolls report as a potential trigger for a fresh hawkish re-pricing, and a positive event for the dollar," said ING FX strategists Tuesday.

On the other hand, if the jobs report is weaker-than-expected, rate hike expectations would drop and favor higher precious metals prices.

"It is too early to say a Fed pivot is justified, but if we continue to see a couple sharp drops with job openings, that will wake up the doves in the FOMC," said OANDA senior market analyst Edward Moya. "Gold's bottom is in place now that the U.S. is showing clear signs the labor market is softening. The key for gold will be the nonfarm payroll report. As long as we don't see an extraordinary strong print, gold should remain supported here and poised to test the $1,750 region."

By Anna Golubova

For Kitco News

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

Tim Moseley

Does This New Trend Correlate With This Flagrant Prediction?

Does This New Trend Correlate With This Flagrant Prediction?

By now, many of us have heard of the declaration, “You’ll own nothing and be happy,” cited by Klaus Schwab of the World Economic Forum and all part of The Great Reset. Yet, only a few believe this infamous prediction will actually become a reality. Sadly, our ownership of things is vanishing, and many of us unwittingly embrace this new normal. 

There is an alarming trend permeating every sector of the economy, and in this article, we’ll cover where this trend came from and why cryptocurrency could be the only defense. The following will explain how “they” plan to make you happy while owning nothing, and there can be no doubt it’s nothing to be happy about. 

The Ownership Predicament

One of the things we all believe we own is our mobile phone. An essential item that all of us have and these days has become an extension of ourselves, and it’s difficult to function without it. So, the question is, how often do you need to change or upgrade your phone due to poor performance? 

Statistics show that we change our phones every 2 to 3 years, consistent with the battery's life span. A solution to the periodical upgrades would be just to install a new battery so you can enjoy your phone for another two years until you need to replace the battery again, and so on. Well, that’s the theory.


Image source: rapidrepair.in

In practice, however, changing the battery is not so simple and can damage the phone, providing you can actually get a replacement battery. In the case of newer iPhone models, the phone will detect when you've replaced the battery and give you all manner of warning messages, which push you to go to the Apple Store for an extensive repair, which could cost as much as a new phone.

Now, critics of this scheme have accurately observed that the inability to independently open, modify or repair a device that you own means that you don't actually own it because ownership literally means the ability to do all of the above and more. 

These and other issues have given rise to a global movement called Right To Repair, which has pressured Apple and other tech giants to make repairs more accessible, albeit to a limited degree due to the lobbying power these corporations wield. 

However, the right to repair doesn't entirely eliminate the underlying ownership issue. Did you know manufacturers slow down a smartphone’s performance to force you to buy a new one? 

Samsung was fined for this practice in 2018, and as usual with all the big tech companies, Samsung’s fine amounted to nothing more than a rap over the knuckles compared to the profits it probably made from artificially slowing down phones. It’s something that the company is allegedly still doing today, and this level of control negates any aspect of ownership. 


Solana co-founder Anatoly Yakovenko with Solana smartphone. Image: Solana Labs/Decrypt

On a positive note, Solana has developed a smartphone that has unique functionalities setting it apart from other phones. It is a web3-enabled device that features tight integration with the Solana blockchain. Anatoly Yakovenko, the co-founder of Solana, believes the key to unlocking the potential of crypto is to bring it into everyone’s hands. Solana Mobile bridges this gap by allowing easy access to the world of crypto and web3 and provides greater adoption and understanding of crypto. 

The project is an open-source platform that aims for widespread adoption and seeks collaboration from other smartphone manufacturers. If these companies believe crypto is important enough, then billions of users can have the opportunity for self-custody. This has the potential to disrupt the industry, creating a new ecosystem that is not burdened by legacy software and hopefully minimizes artificial manipulation.

Planned Obsolescence 

The practice of forcing people to upgrade through some nefarious means has found its way into everything from household appliances to hospital equipment, and it’s not a new practice. It’s been around for nearly 100 years, known as Planned Obsolescence. The term was coined by an American real estate broker named Bernard London in a paper titled “Ending the Depression through Planned Obsolescence," published in 1932.

Bernard said that the Great Depression made no sense because “factories, warehouses, and fields are still intact and are ready to produce in unlimited quantities, but the urge to go ahead has been paralyzed by a decline in buying power and, by extension, a decline in demand.” Given this situation, Bernard proposed the following solution;

“I would have the government assign a lease of life to shoes and homes, and machines to all products of manufacture, mining, and agriculture when they are first created, and they would be sold and used within the term of their existence, definitely known by the consumer. After the allotted time had expired, these things would be legally dead and would be controlled by the duly appointed governmental agency and destroyed if there is widespread unemployment.”

In other words, everything produced in the economy would be artificially made obsolete by the government at a specific date to cause the population to consume more. So that the economy recovers while simultaneously providing ample employment, further fostering economic growth. 

Bernard's problematic idea of planned obsolescence never really caught on because, arguably, it was the second world war that ended the Great Depression. This is primarily because the post-war period was one of incredible prosperity, particularly for the United States, as it managed to reap much of the rewards of victory while incurring little in the way of losses compared with its allies. Also, the US dollar had just become the world's reserve currency.


Image source: Investopedia

More importantly, the populations of countries like the United States and Canada exploded after the second world war; hence the generation referred to as Baby Boomers. It’s important because the rapid increase in population meant a rapid rise in consumption, so there was no need for planned obsolescence business practices. 

Companies could comfortably sell high-quality hardware that would last for decades because they knew there would always be another wave of buyers coming next year as more baby boomers became adult boomers. However, by the 1970s, it became clear that baby boomers weren’t having the same number of children as their predecessors.

Ostensibly, many western countries tried to fill this future demographic gap by introducing immigration, and this seems to have worked for a while. However, by the early 2000s, it turned out that immigration alone wasn't enough to fill the demographic gap, which continued to grow as companies needed increasingly future consumption to continue their future expansion. 

Meanwhile, native birth rates continued to decline, and this seems to be the period when Bernard's idea of planned obsolescence started to become a reality. Companies were effectively forced into selling low-quality products requiring a repurchase every few years to continue consumption trends in the absence of a growing population. 

Hardware As A Service

So, what does all of the above have to do with us owning nothing and being happy? If you’re an iPhone user, you may recall that Bloomberg reported that Apple would be rolling out a subscription service, and it’s nothing like their current service. It applies to the hardware, not the software, meaning that the subscription service will be for the physical phone itself. 

Louis Rossmann, a popular YouTuber, and computer repair shop owner who has gone head-to-head with anti-repair corporate lobbyists, reacted to the Bloomberg article, pointing out that a service is when someone or something does something for you. A phone is not a service; it’s a product, and it should be yours entirely from the moment you purchase it. 

Louis also highlighted that many Wall Street investors are pushing for publicly traded companies to adopt this so-called Hardware as a Service business model (HaaS) because it will make them trade at higher valuations, regardless of their actual earnings. 

This sounds disturbingly similar to the ESG investment trend, which effectively consists of asset managers moving their money into companies that comply with their ever-changing criteria, causing their stocks to pump even though no actual profits are being made.

Hardware as a service satisfies Environmental criteria because the number of devices in circulation can be reduced, and the ones in circulation can be reused. Any old devices can be easily recycled; you'll likely need to give back your old device to get a newer version. 

Hardware as a service also satisfies Social criteria because everyone will have subscription services for the same devices. There will be no phone with a better camera or a bigger memory.  Nor will there be a faster or slower, bigger or smaller car, which means everyone will be truly equal. 

Hardware as a service satisfies Governance criteria because it will put the company producing the product in total control of its creation, use, and destruction. Furthermore, HaaS will result in actual profits because people will pay for subscription services for just about everything they have in their possession until they die. 

Whereas Planned Obsolescence was formulated to solve the Great Depression, it appears that Hardware as a Service is being introduced to ensure consumption continues to increase even as the demographic decline continues. 

HaaS is not likely to be forced upon us consumers. As we’ve recently seen in other products, applying too much force tends to result in an equal or more significant amount of resistance because people know something is up when they don't have a choice. 

Instead, however, the ability to own anything will likely become ever more difficult as time goes on, starting with items that tend to be the most expensive purchases for the average person. Housing is at the top of the list, with costs going through the roof. 

 


Image source: The Guardian

Housing

The housing market and the rising costs in this sector of the economy will eventually cause the population to push politicians to do something—for example, Berlin’s campaign to resocialize housing. One of the outcomes could be that the government starts nationalizing housing. In other words, taking it away from landlords in the name of the greater good, and while these policies will be directed towards the big fish at first, the small fish will come next, just like with taxation. 

Alternatively, if the housing market collapses, we could see asset managers like Blackstone swoop in and acquire as many properties as possible with the freshly printed money they received from their respective central banks. Basically, you’ll rent from the government or Wall Street. 

Personal Transport Vehicles

The next item on the list is vehicles of all kinds. A lot of activity is already in play by car-sharing companies, electric scooter companies, and shared bicycle companies. There’s every chance these entities are extracting as much data as possible in preparation for HaaS models for similar vehicles. And the fact that many of these companies continue to receive large investments, despite being barely profitable is evidence of this effect.

Interestingly, HaaS in cars is likely a reason why there's such a massive push for electric vehicles. That's because it's easy to break the rules of a sharing economy when the car is powered by petrol and hardware, but it's much harder to break the rules when the vehicle is powered by electricity and software. 

Moreover, there's a limit to how many electric cars can be made because there doesn't seem to be enough lithium on the planet to replace existing vehicles with electric cars, according to the World Economic Forum's own research. So it effectively guarantees that electric vehicles will need to be shared. 

Phones And Computers

Phones and computers will probably be the third class of products to get sucked into the hardware as a service scheme, but the average person could take quite a while to accept it. That's because phones and computers are frequently listed as a person's most valuable possessions, primarily because it's something that you can truly shape to meet your personal needs.

These devices also contain lots of sensitive personal data that you'd rather keep to yourself and not share with anyone. Keeping track of phones and computers would also be very difficult without a digital ID, which is also a prerequisite for the rollout of Central Bank Digital Currencies and internet censorship, which the powers that be have explicitly stated they want to enforce.

Is The Tradeoff Worth it? 

The number of people on board with this Hardware as a service idea seems to be increasing. This is simply because an increasing number of people can't afford a home, a car, or even a quality computer or phone. But many think the tradeoff is too great, given that we are all unique, inherently sovereign human beings with Divine free will bestowed upon us. It’s not in our nature to be enslaved by any physical entity without the freedom to make choices, grow and prosper.

There is something precious that we do own, and that is ourselves. The few things we should have a right to own are ultimately an extension of ourselves. They allow us to exercise ownership of ourselves in the world so long as the path to ownership exists. This is why having a place to call home, a way to get around, and the ability to communicate and express oneself is objectively vital and universally sought after. Where there’s a will, there’s a way. 

I can’t imagine anyone being “happy” in a world where the path to ownership of literally everything except our physical body is obstructed. To make matters worse, we may even lose ownership of ourselves because of a digital ID “they” plan to roll out.

What’s The Solution? 

It should be clear by now that our current financial system is not working, and some say it hasn’t been working for decades or even longer because it’s not just Hardware as a Service, as Planned Obsolescence was proposed almost 100 years ago. As all crypto enthusiasts know, cryptocurrency was built to replace this broken financial system. Although cryptocurrency still has a very long way to go, it has already fixed one of the most critical aspects of finance: the ability to truly own your assets. 


Image source: wtfhappenedin1971.com

Some may consider this is nothing new, but it really is! The money in your bank can be seized, and authorities can confiscate any physical property you have. Even your house can be taken from you if you don't pay your taxes, and in some countries, the government can take your property at will using Eminent Domain.

Some might think this is fine, but it's not. These are the sorts of legal levers that governments and corporations are slowly starting to pull to take control of everything you own. Once realized, it’s easier to understand why the Entrepreneur and CEO of MicroStrategy, Michael Saylor, is a colossal Bitcoin advocate. 


Image source: Markethive.com

BTC can't be seized because a third party does not technically own it. It can't be confiscated because it's not physical. And it can't be taken by the government through some obscure law because the only law in crypto is immutable computer code. This makes BTC the best hedge against a world where you will own nothing because it guarantees you will own something.

A growing number of companies and individuals also realize what’s happening and are building a Parallel Economy to counter the “woke trend” and the elite pushing for this new world order and planning the great reset of the world. We must be aware of what’s happening and what’s in store before we are blindsided. Be part of communities that believe in liberty, financial sovereignty, and the freedom to live the way we have been accustomed to so that the legacy may continue for future generations. 

 

 

Editor and Chief Markethive: Deb Williams. (Australia) I thrive on progress and champion freedom of speech. I embrace "Change" with a passion, and my purpose in life is to enlighten people to accept and move forward with enthusiasm. Find me at my Markethive Profile Page | My Twitter Account | and my LinkedIn Profile.

 

 

 

 

Tim Moseley

The Artist that came out of the Winter