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Gold weaker – volatility collapse portends bigger price move soon

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Gold weaker – "volatility collapse" portends bigger price move soon

Gold prices are modestly lower in midday U.S. trading Wednesday, in more subdued mid-summer trading. However, there has been a “collapse in volatility” on the daily bar chart, which suggests a significantly bigger price move is on the horizon in gold—possibly yet this week. Given that gold prices are trending lower on the daily chart, odds favor that bigger price move being on the downside. Improved trader/investor risk appetite this week is keeping buyers in the safe-haven metals mostly standing on the sidelines. August gold futures were last down $4.90 at $1,705.80. September Comex silver futures were last up $0.042 at $18.76 an ounce.

Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are firmer near midday. The U.S. stock index bulls are having a good week so far and have restarted near-term price uptrends on the daily charts. Corporate earnings reports are on the front burner of the stock markets this week. Otherwise, its summertime doldrums trading amid a lack of major, fresh news.

Traders and investors are looking ahead to Thursday when the European Central Bank holds its regular monetary policy meeting. The ECB is expected to raise interest rates for the first time in 11 years, with many market watchers looking for a 0.5% rate increase. The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to raise its key interest rate by at least 0.75% at next week’s FOMC meeting.

Copper/gold ratio shows Fed monetary policy is too tight – MKS PAMP

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices weaker and trading around $103.50 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is slightly higher in midday U.S. trading. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 3.164%. The 2-year and 10-year Treasury bond yields remain inverted at mid-week, which is one clue of an impending U.S. economic recession.

Technically, August gold futures bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending lower on the daily bar chart. However, the recent “collapse in volatility” on the daily bar chart (whereby at least three price bars in a row are significantly smaller than previous price bars) suggests a bigger price move is coming soon. It’s important to note that markets typically vacillate between periods of higher volatility and lower volatility, and at present the gold market is in a period of low volatility. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $1,750.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,650.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $1,722.00 and then at $1,735.00. First support is seen at $1,700.00 and then at the July low of $1,695.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5.

September silver futures bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $20.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $17.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $19.03 and then at $19.36. Next support is seen at this week’s low of $18.51 and then at $18.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5.

September N.Y. copper closed up 405 points at 333.05 cents today. Prices closed near mid-range today. The copper bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. A steep six-week-old price downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 375.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 315.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 337.55 cents and then at 340.00 cents. First support is seen at 325.00 cents and then at the July low of 313.15 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5.

By Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

 

Tim Moseley

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Advanced AI for regular people

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Advanced AI For Regular People…

by Jeff Brown, editor, The Bleeding Edge

 

AI for regular people

 

I’m almost certain that five years from now, we’ll look back at 2022 as the year we hit a critical inflection point in artificial intelligence (AI).

We’ve previously had a look at major developments around advanced AI language models like OpenAI’s GPT-3, Meta’s OPT, and Google’s LaMDA. These are all AIs that most consumers wouldn’t be able to distinguish from a human in chat-based conversation.

But the high-end versions of these models are reserved for researchers, academic institutions, and, of course, the companies themselves.

Meta did make the lower-end version of its AI-based language model open source so anyone can use it. But thus far, the general public has not had access to the best AI-based models out there.

Until now.

An international group of open-source researchers known as BigScience just released an advanced AI model available to all, after about a year of hard work. This is a model that was trained on 176 billion parameters… making it on par with what OpenAI, Meta, and Google have developed. They call it Bloom.

What’s more, BigScience designed Bloom such that it supports 46 different languages and 13 programming languages. That means the AI can speak all the world’s top languages. And it can even write software code in the world’s top programming languages.

And like the big-tech models, Bloom can also write stories, develop instruction manuals, summarize long articles, and write customized computer programs.

My team and I had some fun testing Bloom out. To start with, we asked Bloom to generate text based on a question: How should we think about artificial intelligence today?

Here was the answer:

We also asked Bloom to help us translate English to Japanese. Here it is in action:

And here’s the most impressive part – BigScience developed this model at a fraction of the cost. All it took was $7 million in grant money. With this funding, BigScience trained the AI for three months using 384 of NVIDIA’s best GPUs.

For comparison, other models likely cost tens of millions of dollars to develop.

What we’re witnessing is the complete democratization of AI. Anyone can put Bloom to work – either using their own computers or by renting computing power in the cloud.

And here’s the most incredible part – this comes just months after the big developments from OpenAI, Meta, and Google that we discussed.

We’ve never seen such rapid development cycles before. The open source community is able to essentially duplicate the technology of the world’s most powerful and well-resourced companies, in a matter of months, for a fraction of the cost.

And with the technology now out in the wild, we are inevitably going to see some amazing breakthroughs even in just the next 12 months. We’re in for some radical change… and some pretty incredible investment opportunities.

 

New Opportunities Are Emerging For Citizens of The World.

Freedom and democracy may appear to be struggling to stay alive in America, but there may be a knock-out punch ready to be released. The evolution of the blockchain-enabled metaverse is going to enable the 'Citizens of the World' to gain their own Freedom by democratizing power and creating a new world with new rules, new players, and new opportunities. For 99.99% of us, the metaverse will improve our real-world lives through the democratization of power and opportunity.

Along with the major long-term trend of society towards decentralization and smaller-scale organizations, there are new opportunities developing to help 'Preparers' in the cryptocurrency sector. Businesses are beginning to issue their own Crypto Coins that can be traded on Cryptocoin Exchanges.

Markethive.com for example will be releasing its HiveCoin (HIV) in the coming weeks. It has tremendous upside potential that is outlined in a Video by Founder Tom Prendergast, "Entrepreneur Advantage…".

Not only that, if you go to their website and register as a FREE Member, you will be given 500 HiveCoins for "FREE" along with access to several Earning Opportunities and online tools to increase your HiveCoin balance.

Be sure to check it out today – Markethive.com

Markethive

Tim Moseley

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Gold silver near steady – new fundamental inputs awaited

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Gold, silver near steady – new fundamental inputs awaited

Gold and silver prices are trading not far from unchanged in midday U.S. trading Tuesday. A big drop in the U.S. dollar index this week is limiting selling interest in the precious metals. However, rising U.S. Treasury bond yields this week and a wobbly crude oil market are squelching the bulls. A lack of fresh, markets-moving economic or geopolitical news in mid-summer has metals traders languishing and looking more at the outside markets for direction. August gold futures were last up $0.90 at $1,711.10. September Comex silver futures were last down $0.105 at $18.735 an ounce.

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are solidly higher at midday. Corporate earnings reports are on the front burner of the stock markets this week. Otherwise, its summertime doldrums trading amid a lack of major, fresh news this week.

In overnight news, the Euro zone consumer price index report for June came in at up 8.6%, year on year, which was right in line with market expectations.

Traders and investors are looking ahead to Thursday when the European Central Bank holds its regular monetary policy meeting. The ECB is expected to raise interest rates for the first time in 11 years, with many market watchers looking for a 0.5% rate increase. The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to raise its key interest rate by at least 0.75% at next week’s FOMC meeting.

The gold market has turned bearish

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices firmer and trading around $103.00 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is solidly lower again today. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 3.00%.

Technically, August gold futures bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $1,750.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,650.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $1,722.00 and then at $1,735.00. First support is seen at the July low of $1,695.00 and then at $1,685.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.

September silver futures bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $20.00 an ounce. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $17.50. First resistance is seen at $19.00 and then at $19.36. Next support is seen at today’s low of $18.51 and then at $18.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5.

September N.Y. copper closed down 520 points at 329.30 cents today. Prices closed near mid-range today. The copper bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. A steep six-week-old price downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 375.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 315.00 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 337.10 cents and then at 340.00 cents. First support is seen at 325.00 cents and then at the July low of 313.15 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5.

By Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

 

Tim Moseley

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Dispute Over The Kazakh Oil Pipeline

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Dispute Over The Kazakh Oil Pipeline

Kazakhstan, officially the Republic of Kazakhstan, is a transcontinental landlocked country located mainly in Central Asia and partly in Eastern Europe.

The country dominates Central Asia economically and politically, generating 60 percent of the region's GDP, primarily through its oil and gas industry

Kazakhstan holds about 4 billion tonnes (3.9 billion long tons; 4.4 billion short tons) of proven recoverable oil reserves and 2,000 cubic kilometers (480 cubic miles) of gas. Kazakhstan is the 19th largest oil-producing nation in the world.

The economy of Kazakhstan is the largest in Central Asia in both absolute and per capita terms. Kazakhstan has attracted more than $370 billion of foreign investments since becoming an independent republic after the collapse of the former Soviet Union.

 

Large energy companies such as Chevron, ExxonMobil, Royal Dutch Shell, and Eni own since the 90th  rights for oil and gas production in Kazakhstan.

Kazakhstan has a customs union with Russia and Belarus and is also a member of the Eurasian Economic Union. Yet, for example, in 2017, the European Union was Kazakhstan's most important trading partner, with a share of 38.7% in foreign trade. Kazakhstan has the potential to be a world-class oil exporter in the medium term. 

Kazakhstan has the largest and most powerful economy in Central Asia. The economy of Kazakhstan, supported by rising oil production and prices, grew by an average of 8% per year until 2013, before slowing down between 2014 and 2015. It was thus the most dynamic world economy of the early 21st century after China and Qatar.

 

Problems of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium

Beginning of July a Russian court ordered that the Caspian pipeline consortium  (CPC) must suspend operations for 30 days. The court justified the decision by the possibility of environmental damage. The report adds to global concerns about oil supplies, Reuters warned.

 

The capacity of the Caspian pipeline

CPC brings oil from Kazakhstan to the Russian Black Sea coast and is one of the largest oil pipelines in the world. It transports about one percent of the world's oil.

The consortium that owns the pipeline said that it must abide by the decision, but intends to appeal against it. At the same time, it refused to comment on its activities. A Russian court on Monday 11th July overturned the ruling against CPC and instead fined it 200,000 roubles ($3,300). 

 

Kazakhstan – Caspian pipeline

The CPC pipeline has been in the spotlight since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which has curtailed Russian exports and caused a sharp rise in oil prices. The United States imposed sanctions on Russian oil but said that flows from Kazakhstan through Russia can continue to operate without interruption.

According to the CPC, deputy prime minister of the Russian Federation Viktoria Abramchenkova ordered the regulatory authorities, including the Rostechnadzor technical supervision authority, to inspect the facilities in the Russian part. The inspection allegedly found discrepancies in documents relating to oil spill management plans. Oil leaked from the terminal last year. CPC originally received a deadline of 30. November, but eventually the authorities changed the decision and the court gave them the truth.

CPC is the only oil export pipeline on Russian territory that is not fully owned by the Russian company Transneft which owns a 24 percent stake in the consortium. Other shareholders include Kazakh company KazMunayGas and American companies Chevron and Exxon. Its length is over 1500 km.

According to Interfax, the explosion of the pipeline occurred on Wednesday 6th July at the Tengiz field, whose reserves are estimated at 3.2 billion tons. The causes of the explosion, in which, according to Nexta, two people were killed and three others were injured, are unknown.

The site in the west of Kazakhstan is managed by Tengizchevroil, which is 50% owned by the American Chevron and another 25% by ExxonMobil. In Tengiz, a $ 45.2 billion mining expansion project has now been launched, which was to be completed in 2023. Kazakhstan is in terms of oil production with 1.7 million barrels per day at 11. place in the world, reports the Moscow Times.

The shareholders of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium are:

  • Transneft – 24%

  • KazMunaiGaz – 19%

  • Chevron Caspian Pipeline Consortium Co. – 15%

  • LukArco B.V. – 12.5%

  • Mobil Caspian Pipeline Co. – 7.5%

  • Rosneft – Shell Caspian Ventures Ltd. – 7.5%

  • CPC Company – 7%

  • BG Overseas Holdings Ltd. – 2%

  • Eni International (N.A.) N.V. S.ar.l – 2%

  • Kazakhstan Pipeline Ventures LLC – 1.75%

  • Oryx Caspian Pipeline LLC – 1.75%

Disputes between Russia and Kazakhstan

Between Russia and Kazakhstan there have recently been disagreements over the war in Ukraine, the agency DPA warned. Kazakhstan recently offered the EU to supply more oil and gas to Europe and did not recognize the independence of the separatist republics in eastern Ukraine.

Through the CPC pipeline, 54 million tons, or 1.2 million barrels per day, of Kazakh CPC Blend light sour crude oil were exported last year. Through the terminal in the Russian port of Novorossiysk flows 80 percent of oil exported from Kazakhstan. The handling capacity of the pipeline is 67 million tons per year. Its operation has already been interrupted once this year due to damage to the equipment of the Black Sea terminal.

Kazakhstan's key oil pipeline is back up and running since 13th July again. But Russia wants to push to stop it and according to sources from three Western companies operating in Kazakhstan, it is likely that a long-term shutdown of CPC operations may still occur. Kazakhstan does not have access to the sea and thus has very limited alternative transport options. A failure of the CPC would mean a drop in exports of up to 50 million tons of oil per year.

In spite of all the complications, the president of Kazakhstan Tokaev thinks that his country could create a kind of "buffer zone" to compensate for the imbalance in the distribution of energy between East and West and North and south, he said. In this context, Tokayev called on the EU to expand alternative transport corridors, including across the Caspian Sea. This would make it possible to supply raw materials to Europe outside of Russia.

Many Western companies have exited operations in Russia, with oil majors among the first to leave in the days after the conflict began. Western sanctions have disrupted Russian exports and pushed up energy prices.

In response, Russia made steps towards seizing oil and gas projects Sakhalin 1 and 2, where Shell and Exxon have stakes. A Western executive familiar with CPC operations said Sakhalin was "a definite sign of things to come for CPC".

Shortly after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, international oil prices spiked to their highest levels since the records of 2008.

They have since eased to just above $100 a barrel as the market anticipates economic weakness will lower demand, although selling has been limited by concerns of tight supplies that would be exacerbated by a cut in CPC output.

"Losing one million barrels per day in an already tight environment can lead to an unsolvable problem for the oil market," Amrita Sen from Energy Aspects in London said.

JP Morgan analysts predicted last week that oil prices could jump to an all-time high of $190 per barrel if a combined 3 million BPD of output from Russia and Kazakhstan was hit by sanctions and related issues.

Lack of Alternatives

Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev told his government to diversify oil supply routes. All alternatives are challenging, for instance, shipments over the Caspian sea face tanker shortages and have little capacity to take more oil.

The United States imposed sanctions on Russian oil but said that flows from Kazakhstan through Russia can continue to operate without interruption. Now, however, this possibility is under threat, and it is not certain that Russia will not take further action against the functionality of this pipeline.

Relationship between Russia and Kazakhstan

This was the third time in recent months that the CPC has run into trouble.

The freeze on activities stood to cost Kazakhstan hundreds of millions of dollars in lost revenue. 

The reality is that Kazakhstani-Russian relations have been less than ideal for weeks, not to say months or even years.

The depth of Kazakhstan’s economic ties with Russia cannot be underestimated. Of the $101.5 billion of trade that the country did in 2021, around one-quarter was with Russia, a country with which Kazakhstan shares more than 7,600 kilometers of the border. The regimes of the two countries are bound also in other ways. Kazakhstan is a member of the Moscow-led Collective Security Treaty Organisation defense bloc.

 

Sources:

Themoscowtimes.com

Reuters.com

Eurasianet.org

Echo24.cz

Ceskenoviny.cz

byznys.hn.cz
 

 

 

Tim Moseley

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Gold silver lifted modestly by bullish outside markets

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Gold, silver lifted modestly by bullish outside markets

Gold and silver prices are trading mildly higher in midday U.S. trading Monday. Bullish outside market that see the U.S. dollar index sharply lower and crude oil prices solidly higher are helping to lift the precious metals markets to start the trading week. A lack of fresh, markets-moving economic or geopolitical news early this week has metals traders looking at the outside markets for direction. August gold futures were last up $5.50 at $1,709.10. September Comex silver futures were last up $0.216 at $18.81 an ounce.

Global stock markets were higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are higher at midday. Corporate earnings reports are on the front burner of the stock markets early this week. Lackluster, lower-volume summertime trading may pervade many financial markets in the coming weeks, until the Labor Day holiday weekend in early September. Traders and investors will be focused more on family vacations before school starts.

Traders and investors are looking ahead to Thursday when the European Central Bank holds its regular monetary policy meeting. The ECB is expected to raise interest rates for the first time in 11 years. The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to raise its key interest rate by at least 0.75% at next week’s FOMC meeting.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices sharply higher and trading around $101.75 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is solidly lower in early U.S. trading. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching around 3%.

Technically, August gold futures prices hit an 11-month low last Thursday. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $1,750.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,650.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $1,722.00 and then at $1,735.00. First support is seen at last week’s low of $1,695.00 and then at $1,685.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.

September silver futures prices hit a two-year low last Thursday. The silver bears have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $19.50 an ounce. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $17.00. First resistance is seen at $19.00 and then at $19.36. Next support is seen at $18.50 and then at $18.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.

September N.Y. copper closed up 1,125 points at 334.70 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session high on short covering after hitting a 1.5-year low last Friday. The copper bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. A steep six-week-old price downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 375.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 315.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 337.10 cents and then at 340.00 cents. First support is seen at 325.00 cents and then at last week’s low of 313.15 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5.

Bank of America sees mild recession in Q4; inflation remains the biggest threat to consumption

By Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

Tim Moseley

Dating Tips

Best Dating Sites

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Many local newspapers had online personals in the mid 1990s but were bought out by these big dating sites. From some of the comments it really shows how desperate dating sites are for money that they even advertise in comment sections. You have a much better chance going to local events and you will probably spend less than what you would spend on an online dating site.

Other apps have indicated that they might actually move closer to Facebook. For example, Bumble, founded by a former Tinder executive, said they had already reached out to Facebook regarding how to collaborate. And, “One thing everyone seems to agree on is that Facebook’s effectively endorsing online dating will be a huge legitimization event for the industry,” says Jefferies Internet analyst Brent Thill. According to Amanda Bradford, chief executive of The League, an elite dating app, “Facebook is validating that dating is a high-tech industry with really interesting and hard problems to solve. Still, Facebook could face some obstacles in building enough separation between the dating service and the legacy social network; some users might not like having both activities live on one app.

After giving him some time to cope with his cat passing away, he made plans to see her again and she was thrilled. He canceled the date last minute again because he said his grandma had died. Although this seemed too tragic to be true, she gave him the benefit of the doubt that he was telling the truth. Additionally, if someone is giving you a checklist right away of all of the things they want in a future partner, this may be a red flag for some controlling behaviors. It’s one thing if they express their non-negotiables but it’s another thing entirely if they are listing required traits. If you feel like someone is already trying to change things about you to suit their needs, that’s not okay. How someone initiates a conversation with you will say a lot about how they view you as a person and how they might treat you as a partner.

Online dating users are more likely to describe their overall experience with using dating sites or apps in positive, rather than negative, terms. Some 57% of Americans who have ever used a dating site or app say their own personal experiences with these platforms have been very or somewhat positive. Still, about four-in-ten online daters (42%) describe their personal experience with dating sites or apps as at least somewhat negative. Happily, there are some dating services that are looking to overcome the vanity. For example, Hinge matches people based on personality and preferences and lets you create a more interesting and rounded profile to draw people in. One of the few dating sites designed for affairs, Ashley Madison connects users for discreet encounters.

Basically all a guy like you has to do is instantly grab her attention in a memorable way with both your profile and your messages, then spend the least amount of time possible convincing her to meet you in person. For those who are hesitant to enter the online dating world for reasons related to safety or awkward conversation lulls, Double aims to take the pressure off with Double dates as opposed to one-on-one.

State things that are really important to you and be done with it. Connor turned an attempt at small talk into a rant about “gold-digging whores,” and the dating app was not having it. Matt- But what about when you said you would meet me in real life and we would lose our virginity together. One Love educates young people about healthy and unhealthy relationships, empowering them to identify and avoid abuse and learn how to love better. If you are going somewhere that serves alcoholic beverages, most bartenders are using secret codes to help customers signal, privately, when they need help if they’re getting harassed or feeling unsafe on a bad date.

With no financial requirement, free sites will naturally attract a greater proportion of people who are not really committed to finding a genuine relationship. Memberships you gain additional features such as being able to send more messages and receiving event discounts.

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AM-PM Roundup Gold price near steady but bears maintain firm overall grip

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Gold prices are trading not far from unchanged and near this week’s 11-month low in early U.S. trading Friday. Silver prices are firmer on short covering after hitting a two-year low this week. Bullish outside market forces on this day are friendly for the metals, as the U.S. dollar index is lower, crude oil prices are firmer and bond yields have backed off a bit. However, the overall postures of those three key elements still lean bearish for the metals and continue to keep their prices tamped down. August gold futures were last up $0.50 at $1,706.20. September Comex silver futures were last up $0.23 at $18.45 an ounce.

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session beings. It’s a busy U.S. data day to end the trading week, highlighted by the retail sales report for June. Sales came in up a slightly higher-than-expected up 1.0%. Sales were forecast up 0.9% compared to the May report that was down 0.3%. Markets showed no significant reactions to the data.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the Empire State manufacturing survey, import and export prices, industrial production and capacity utilization, manufacturing and trade inventories and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

In overnight news, China, the world’s second-largest economy, reported its GDP cooled sharply in the second quarter due to Covid lockdowns. China’s GDP was up just 0.4%, year-on-year. That was below market expectations and the lowest since the first quarter of 2020, when the pandemic began.

Gold hammered, analysts warn of capitulation event if price drops below pre-pandemic levels

The commodity markets have sent two strong, early signals to the marketplace the past couple weeks that traders and investors need to heed. Crude oil, gold, copper, silver, the grains, coffee, cotton and other markets have posted very sharp losses. Those two signals are one, that price inflation overall has very likely peaked, and two, that the U.S. and other major economies are on the verge of recession, if not already there. The smart money in the marketplace will not be making trades counter to those two strong signals.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices higher and trading around $97.00 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is weaker in early U.S. trading. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 2.93%.

Technically, the August gold futures bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $1,750.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,700.00. First resistance is seen at $1,715.00 and then at $1,725.00. First support is seen at this week’s low of $1,695.00 and then at $1,685.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0

September silver futures bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as prices hit a two-year low overnight. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at this week’s high of $19.36. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $17.00. First resistance is seen at $18.63 and then at $19.00. Next support is seen at $18.00 and then at $17.75. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.

By Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

Tim Moseley

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Bitcoin Holds 2022 Lows as Inflation Soars and More Troubled Crypto Companies Emerge

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Bitcoin Holds 2022 Lows as Inflation Soars and More Troubled Crypto Companies Emerge

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Another month, another red-hot inflation data. As of Wednesday 13th, July, the consumer price index (CPI, a key measure of U.S. inflation) was up 9.1% from a year earlier. Meaning shoppers are paying significantly more for everything from groceries, gasoline and rent. The higher-than-expected reading immediately spooked cryptocurrencies and stocks, as Bitcoin plunged 5% and the S&P 500 opened by 1%. The liquidity crisis plaguing crypto firms; Three Arrows Capital and Celsius continued to spread across the market. Well, it hasn't been all bad news for the crypto sector. Let's dive into the water.

Four decades of high inflation and the Fed's efforts to combat it are weighing on stocks and crypto markets and sparking fears of a recession. Consumer prices rose 9.1% in June from a year earlier, beating Dow Jones's 8.8% forecast. The most significant inversion of the yield curve between 10-year and 2-year Treasury bills (a key indicator of a recession) occurred since 2000. The latest inflation report could mean another rate hike is on the horizon for the Federal Reserve, which has accelerated efforts to unwind pandemic-era stimulus. Riskier assets such as cryptocurrencies and tech stocks have benefited from excess consumer cash in the past, but have since suffered some of the sharpest losses.

Two months after the Terra/Luna debacle, liquidity and credit issues continue to plague overstretched crypto firms like Three Arrows Capital (3AC), Celsius, Voyager, and more. A legal battle has erupted between the founders and liquidators of 3AC, which manages $10 billion, after it filed for bankruptcy on July 1.

The fallout from 3AC affects Blockchain.com. (3AC lost $270 million on loans), Voyager Digital (filed for bankruptcy after 3AC failed to repay $670 million), and BlockFi. FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried has since "bailed out" the latter two. Meanwhile, Celsius, one of the first companies to suspend withdrawals due to liquidity issues paid off a huge Defi loan ahead of its bankruptcy filing Wednesday night.

Bitcoin mining companies are also feeling the pinch.

Despite the fall in cryptocurrency prices, global mining output has remained near all-time highs over the past month. Meaning mining energy costs are high even as the value of cryptocurrency block rewards falls. As a result, some miners are selling their cryptocurrency to pay fees.

Core Scientific, one of the largest miners in the world, sold $167 million worth of BTC (over 75% of its BTC) to pay off servers and other debts. Canadian miner Bitfarms sold $62 million worth of BTC (more than 75% of its BTC) to improve liquidity, and Argo Blockchain liquidated $15.6 million to repay Galaxy Digital's loan.

What's the good news?

Regarding global adoption, Italy subsidizes Internet blockchain projects with $46 million. The Central African Republic has announced a new national cryptocurrency, Sango Coin, whose president says it will be "a gateway to the country's natural resources." portal." Meanwhile, $5.5 billion in venture capital flowed into crypto projects in the year's first half. Most recently, Axie Infinity developer Sky Mavis raised $150 million for blockchain gaming, and Layer 1 protocol Rubix raised $100 million from a company specializing in cross-border transactions.

It's also important to note that Ethereum successfully launched proof-of-stake on its Sepolia test net, the second of three milestones ahead of a blockchain energy-efficient upgrade known as Merge.

Why this matters

Months into the crypto winter of Bitcoin's 70% drop from its November all-time high, a big question is permeating: Are we near a bottom? While some analysts claim that macro factors are crucial like the Fed slowing rate hikes or cutting stock earnings forecasts, others think we're close to a bottom. While no one can predict how the crypto market will move, finding a bottom is more than just price levels. As one cryptocurrency trader told CoinDesk:

"The bottom is as much a product of time as the price…Cynical sentiment must die down and give way to optimism."

The price of crypto has been steadily declining since the beginning of the year. This is a common market trend and seems to be generally accepted. The fall in price is not only concerning for those who invested a considerable amount of money in crypto, but it also affects people who are just curious about it. Although the fall in price may be seen as a negative trend, it also has its own set of benefits.

 

 

 

 

Tim Moseley

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Gold price holding support at 1700 as US retail sales rise 1 in June

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Gold price holding support at $1,700 as U.S. retail sales rise 1% in June

The gold market is holding support at $1,700 as U.S. consumers appear to be on solid footing, buying more than expected in June.

U.S. retail sales advanced 1.0% last month following a upwardly revised drop of 0.1% in May, according to the latest data from the U.S. Commerce Department. Economists were expecting to see a rise of 0.9% in last month’s headline number.

Core sales, which strip out vehicle sales, also beat expectations and were up 1% last month versus the projected advance of 0.7%. The report’s control group, which strips out autos, gas, building materials, and food services, increased 0.8%, beating expectations of a 0.3% gain.

The strong gains in retail sales comes as consumers saw inflation rise to its highest level in 40 years last month.

The gold market is seeing little reaction to the latest positive economic data. August gold futures last traded at $1,702.30 an ounce, down 0.23% on the day.

Economists note that the strong rise in retail sales will help ease fears that the U.S. is close to a recession. Economists have also said that the data also supports the Federal Reserve’s aggressive monetary policy stance.

While some economists are optimistic on the health of the U.S. economy others are skeptical. Katherine Judge, senior economist at CIBC, said that consumers are still faced with falling purchasing power, which will continue to impact consumption.

“Retail sales bounced back in the US in June, but much of the advance owes to higher prices,” she said. “These figures will clearly look less impressive in volume terms, and we expect the erosion in consumer purchasing power to weigh on goods spending ahead.”

By Neils Christensen

For Kitco News

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

 

Tim Moseley

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What’s Wrong With News And Social Media Today?

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What’s Wrong With News And Social Media Today? 

A democratic society values a free-flowing media ecosystem. A healthy media ecosystem is one of the characteristics of a democratic society. Mass media outlets such as newspapers and cable TV networks were prominent in the past. Today, the internet and social media platforms allow for greater communication across society. 

Journalism, investigative correspondents, and even freelance writers are essential to that ecosystem. High-quality reporting revealing brutal truths and users' scope and exposure on social media to either create or access information are forces that can drive genuine societal change. And even keep the power structures in check. 

Despite the positive aspects mentioned above, harmful practices and negative external forces related to the media ecosystem often eclipse them. These issues are usually easy to recognize once they’re identified. Therefore, it is important to acknowledge them and spread awareness about their potential risks. 

Doing so will help you make informed decisions about how you use media and how it can impact your life and the lives of others. The following are a few issues pervasive in many digital news sites, forums, and social media platforms. 

 

Image source: VisualCapitalist

Implicit Bias vs. Explicit Bias
An explicit bias in media has two types: explicit and implicit. It is possible for publishers with explicit biases to control the framing of stories in their publications by overtly dictating the types of stories that are covered. They push their agenda by using narrative fallacies or false balance. 

Implicit bias refers to unintentional filtering or skewing of information. This can occur by turning a blind eye to specific topics or issues because they would tarnish an advertiser's image. These are known as no-fly zones, and because the news industry is financially troubled, these zones are becoming increasingly dangerous. 

Difference between Misinformation and Disinformation
Inaccurate information is known as either misinformation or disinformation. While misinformation is unintentionally disseminated due to a lack of knowledge or truth on the topic, disinformation is purposely designed to mislead people. For example, a deepfake image, video, fake news story, or concept is considered disinformation. 

The term 'fake news' is frequently used to describe poorly written news content or inaccurate news reporting, as well as conspiracy theories and poorly written or incorrect tweets by politicians. Fake news might refer more broadly to information that an individual disagrees with.

Context Stripping
Through social media, stories are shared widely by many participants, and the most compelling framing usually wins out. More often than not, the truncated, provocative posts spread the furthest. The process of stripping context away from an idea may distort its meaning.

Sharing video clips on social platforms is a perfect example of this context-stripping process. Despite the absence of context, much discussion occurs around the video, especially if it’s controversial or shocking. As a result, viewers are unintentionally encouraged to stereotype the individuals in the video and to bring their own preconceived notions to the discussion table, helping fill the gaps. 

Cherry Picking 
Media contributors search for attention-grabbing story angles to make their point in an article. This may result in cherry-picking information and ideas. Because the content is usually accurate, it makes sense on the surface, but it is missing critical context. 

So cherrypicking can be questionable and compromising. It is tempting to create simplistic narratives that are compelling such as good-vs-evil, but real-world situations are often much more complicated than they appear. 

Desperate Times Call For Desperate Measures
Journalism is experiencing difficult times. Newsrooms are working with less staff and budgets, and 'churnalism' is one outcome. This term describes the act of publishing articles directly from wire services and PR releases. Even if it isn't widely known, 'churnalism' replaces more rigorous reporting. It is also an avenue for advertising and propaganda and harder to recognize as news. 

 

Image source: VisualCapitalist

Paywalls
The drive to generate revenue is leading to other issues as well. Quality content is increasingly being restricted to subscribers only, otherwise called paywalls. This has resulted in a two-class system, with subscribers receiving in-depth, well-researched news and everyone else having access to trivial or sensationalized content only. 

It’s not only about people with limited incomes; young people are also widely included. The average age of a paid news subscriber is 50 years old, raising concerns about the future of the subscription business model. 

Advertisement Clutter
Desperate times have led to desperate measures for advertising-reliant outlets. User experience has taken a backseat to ad impressions, with ad clutter (e.g., auto-play videos, pop-ups, and prompts) constantly interrupting content. One or two ads on a web page are manageable, but when ads overrun the site, it's distracting and disorienting. 

Surveillance Capitalism
In surveillance capitalism, organizations collect large amounts of data about their customers, employees, and other groups that are viewed as valuable sources of information. This information can be used for various purposes, such as generating revenue by selling data or predicting consumer behavior and targeting them with highly personalized advertising campaigns to increase their profits.

Some organizations capture and profit from individual information utilizing browser fingerprinting. When you visit certain websites, third-party companies scan your device and browser settings to track you online. Despite all the opt-in privacy prompts, these third-party trackers can still watch your every move digitally. Most people are not aware of this process.
 
Deplatforming
Many individuals and communities have been banned from social and publishing platforms for various reasons. While harassment and violence, fake accounts, and bots are obvious reasons to remove the offenders’ accounts, many would argue the rules are inconsistently enforced. Users are falling victim to being suspended or deleted from a platform for having a different point of view than the mediators of the platform. 

While we all are responsible for our online behavior as individuals, platform owners must also be careful to preserve the value of their platforms by avoiding over-zealous enforcement tactics that could lead to deplatforming. Invariably this causes irrefutable damage to the individual or company with a loss of followers and content. 

In many cases, this behavior from specific platforms is seen as a structural bias and agenda-setting from the top down by placing importance on selected topics and is very quick to censor legitimate political discourse or other forms of honest expression. A problem that seems ingrained with legacy social media and a battle we can’t win. 

 

Image source: VisualCapitalist

Argument Culture
It’s ultimately deviating to an adversarial approach when encountering people with an opposing worldview. Two examples of this are Twitter flame wars and broadcasts where hyperpartisan critics argue. While these are fun for some people, these activities do not require critical thinking or problem solving and are not helpful for the overall health of our society. 

A flame war is created when multiple users engage in inflammatory responses to an original post, sometimes flamebait. Flame wars often draw in many users, including those trying to defuse the flame war, and can quickly become a mass flame war that overshadows regular forum discussion.

When engaging in argument culture, people will often cherry-pick facts to strengthen their argument, ignore facts that weaken their argument and dismiss facts that reinforce the opposing argument. This approach to facts is often referred to as post-factual. Similarly, people often use hyperbolic language when arguing with others.

Brigading & Social Bots
Social media companies can be powerful enablers and disrupters where users can communicate in new and meaningful ways to help foster community engagement. On the other hand, they can also pose some unique challenges. They are driven by algorithms that privilege engagement with certain kinds of content over others. 

There are autonomous or human-run accounts on certain social media platforms that manipulate discussions and boost specific messages. This alters the tone of online discourse and artificially inflates the spread of messages. These accounts often promote particular agendas, benefit specific groups, or spread misinformation. This type of social media manipulation is referred to as brigading.

Some websites use bots to delete specific comments that they feel do not fit into the narrative of their website and promote what they consider “positive” comments instead. The potential consequences of using bots to promote or suppress specific comments will negatively impact the website and be perceived as one with an agenda that does not allow open discussion. 

 

Who Can You Trust? 
The issues mentioned above have led to a significant decline in confidence and trust across the various media outlets. A study of news media perception from 40 nations revealed that trust varied widely around the world, with European media trusted the most. Western Europeans trusted their media more than those in other parts of the world, and the Finnish were the most trusting, with 65%. The United States and Slovakia scored near the bottom regarding how much consumers trusted their news media at 26%.

The source is one factor that plays a significant role in whether or not an individual trusts news. On a global level, social media was the least trusted news medium, with Europe and North America leading this sentiment. A survey of U.S. adults found that most news on social media was regarded as biased.

Young people worldwide find it difficult to rely on mass media due to its current climate of polarizing political events and fake news. Older generations also share this viewpoint, and one of the top reasons for avoiding news was the inability to rely on its truthfulness.

Alternative Conservative Platforms Stand Up
Participants who lack trust in these disingenuous and agenda-driven platforms or feel their voice is not heard are migrating to other websites where they can be heard. More alternative media are popping up, Conservative-based, bi-partisan, and some are even non-partisan, with their only agenda being freedom of speech, liberty, and sovereignty. 

Conservatives are expanding their media outlets, aggressively building a conservative ecosystem with their own apps, cryptocurrencies, social media, and publishing houses. It includes Trump’s Truth Social and Gettr, launched by ex-Trump aide Jason Miller, with Rumble, the conservative alternative to YouTube, driving the news.

It is their effort to counter the perceived escalating liberal internet and media institutions and stand up against the developing cancel culture and censorship rife in legacy media. That is very commendable; however, it may well be perceived as still having a right-wing agenda that has the potential to stifle the platform’s ability to proliferate. 

 

An Alternative To The Alternative
Where can the people go who have no agenda, are critical thinkers, and have a completely unbiased worldview? People with an entrepreneurial spirit and a “live and let live” attitude that can rise above the injustices, evil trickery, and pettiness of the world. 

Today, the Markethive Social Market Broadcasting Network is growing in prominence as the ecosystem for entrepreneurs with a non-adversarial, bipartisan free speech ethic and a collaborative culture. It is a system of all things media, including a video platform and news broadcasting. It is a culmination of several distinct mechanisms that will harmonize, delivering the resources we need for everything we do online in a decentralized sovereign environment. 

Markethive Media has embraced blockchain technology and cryptocurrency, building an ecosystem that belongs to “we the people,” eliminating many of the issues plagued by media outlets today. With its meritocratic culture, dynamic social media interface, and growing community, Markethive is enhancing and bringing the platform into the future internet with new technology and interfaces, but still in keeping with the human touch.

There is no simple solution to the current problems facing news and social media. However, suppose we are more media literate and aware of what’s happening. In that case, we are better equipped to circumvent or even help fix these broken systems by encouraging honesty and transparency in communication channels that bond society, given that these mediums have become the primary source of information and interaction in the current dystopian climate.  

Reference
Visual Capitalist

 

 

 

 
 

Tim Moseley

The Artist that came out of the Winter