Cryptocurrency: A Beginner’s Guide

Cryptocurrency: A Beginner's Guide



Cryptocurrencies are a form of digital currency, which means they're stored on the internet and can be used to purchase or sell goods and services. Like normal currencies, cryptocurrencies can be exchanged for other forms of money, products and services. There are many different types of cryptocurrency available today with Bitcoin being the most popular one.

What is cryptocurrency?

Cryptocurrency is a digital currency that can be used to buy and sell goods and services. It is not backed by any government or central bank, but instead uses encryption techniques to regulate the generation of units of currency and verify the transfer of funds.

Cryptocurrency transactions are recorded on a public ledger called a blockchain, which can be accessed by anyone at any time. Because cryptocurrencies are decentralized, meaning they're not controlled by one central bank (like dollars), no single entity has direct control over how much money there is in circulation or its price–but this also means there's less oversight about who's buying what with your coins!

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How do you get involved in cryptocurrency?

You can get involved in cryptocurrency by:

  • Getting a cryptocurrency wallet. This is basically like an online bank account, where you can store and transfer your digital currency. There are many different types of wallets available for different purposes; some are more secure than others. You'll also need to decide whether you want to use an exchange or download a wallet on your computer or phone (or both). If you have no idea what any of this means and just want to get started using Bitcoin as quickly as possible, we recommend Coinbase because it has both mobile apps and web interfaces that make buying/selling easy even if all the technical details confuse you–but there are plenty of other options out there too!

  • Buying cryptocurrency from an exchange such as Binance or Kraken (which we discuss below). This involves transferring money into the site's payment system so that they can process your order (a process known as "funding"). Some exchanges allow credit card payments while others require bank transfers; some only deal with Bitcoin while others handle multiple currencies including Ethereum or Litecoin; some require ID verification before allowing users access while others don't require any personal information at all! Go figure…

If none of these options sound appealing then maybe try mining instead? Mining refers specifically  to using computer hardware like GPUs (graphics processing units) which solve complex mathematical problems–called hashes–in order to release new blocks onto blockchain networks where people transact with each other without needing intermediaries such as banks involved at every step along their journey through life's journey together."

What is blockchain technology?

Blockchain technology is a decentralized digital ledger that records transactions. It's the technology behind cryptocurrencies like bitcoin, which made headlines in 2017 when it hit $20,000 per coin and then lost more than half its value in 2018.

It's not just a buzzword: blockchain has been around since 2008 and has been used by companies like IBM and Microsoft as well as governments such as Dubai to track everything from loans to real estate contracts. The most important thing about blockchain is that it provides an immutable record of all transactions ever made on the network where it resides–that means no one can change or remove these records without everyone else knowing about it!

Cryptocurrency exchanges and wallet

Cryptocurrency wallets are digital storage spaces for your cryptocurrency. They can be an app, or a website; they can also be physical devices that you can carry around with you.

The main function of a cryptocurrency wallet is to store and hold your private keys, which are used to sign transactions.

The cryptocurrency market is growing fast and it's very important to learn all you can.

The cryptocurrency market is growing fast, and it's important to learn all you can about cryptocurrencies. Cryptocurrencies are a new technology that is not regulated by the government. They have a lot of potential.

How do you buy and sell cryptocurrency?

  • You can buy and sell cryptocurrency on an exchange, such as Coinbase or Binance.

  • You can buy and sell cryptocurrency on a peer-to-peer exchange like LocalBitcoins, which acts as an intermediary between buyers and sellers.

  • You can buy and sell cryptocurrency with your wallet provider (e.g., if you have a Bitcoin wallet). These services may charge fees for their services or make money off of interest earned from holding funds in their accounts.

  • Cryptocurrency exchanges have become popular options for acquiring digital assets because they allow users to purchase coins with fiat currencies like USD or EUR, rather than having to go through all the steps involved with purchasing them directly from miners or ICOs (initial coin offerings). They also provide users with more security than peer-to-peer trading platforms do; however, these centralized exchanges still carry risks due to their centralized nature: if one is hacked then all customer funds could potentially be stolen at once!

What do you need to start trading in cryptocurrency?

To start trading in cryptocurrency, you need:

  • A computer or smartphone

  • An internet connection

  • A cryptocurrency wallet (to store your coins)

  • An account with a cryptocurrency exchange (to buy/sell coins)

Why are cryptocurrencies so popular?

Cryptocurrency is a digital currency that is designed to work as a medium of exchange. It uses cryptography to secure transactions, verify them and prevent double spending. Cryptocurrency can be used to buy goods and services, or traded for other currencies (both fiat and cryptocurrency).

Cryptocurrency is not controlled by any central authority or bank: instead it depends on an internet-based peer-to-peer network. Transactions are verified by network nodes through the use of blockchain technology, which records them publicly in a data structure known as a ledger. Each node (a computer connected to the network) gets a copy of this ledger, which means that there's no centralized version of this ledger anywhere – it exists entirely on computers all over the world at once!

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What is blockchain technology and how does it work?

Blockchain technology is a decentralized ledger that records transactions across a network of computers. Each computer has a copy of the blockchain, which means no one person or company owns it. Instead, many different people around the world keep track of all transactions made on blockchain networks and verify them through complex mathematical algorithms.

Each block in a blockchain contains data about who made the transaction (for example: "Alice sent 5 bitcoins to Bob"), as well as other information that's necessary for verifying whether or not Alice had enough bitcoins available at that time to send them to Bob. When someone wants to make sure their own transaction went through properly and wasn't tampered with by others along its journey from sender to recipient, they'll have their computer check with other computers running similar verification software until they get an answer confirming everything looks good – essentially forming consensus among peers who agree upon what constitutes true ownership over digital assets like currencies or contracts between two parties

Knowing the basics of crypto may help you understand why it's become so popular.

Cryptocurrency is more popular than ever. In fact, the cryptocurrency market has grown by over 1000% since 2017 and continues to rise. The popularity of cryptocurrencies is largely due to their ability to be used as an alternative currency, which means you can buy goods and services with them without having to convert your money into another form of payment (like cash). This makes it easier for people from all over the world who don't have access to traditional financial institutions or banks because they live in countries where these types of institutions don't exist (or are too expensive).

You might be wondering why all this matters? Well if you're interested in investing in cryptocurrency then understanding its history will help give context as well as give insight into what makes it so unique compared other forms investment vehicles like stocks or bonds; this way when something happens with regard…


In conclusion, cryptocurrency is an exciting new world that can be difficult to navigate. In this guide, we've tried to simplify things and give you a basic understanding of what it means to trade in crypto. We hope that by learning about the different types of exchanges, wallets and how they work together with blockchain technology you will be able to make better informed decisions when buying or selling cryptocurrency!

Tim Moseley

Gold market cautious as investors spooked by risk of Fed hiking 50 bps in March

Gold market cautious as investors spooked by risk of Fed hiking 50 bps in March

Gold is down for the fourth week in a row as markets are worried about how aggressive the Federal Reserve will have to be to bring inflation down to 2%.

Markets were hit with stronger-than-expected economic data and stubborn inflation numbers this week.

In response, gold struggled, with April Comex gold futures down 1.3% on the week and last at $1,851 an ounce.

"Inflation will be more sticky than many anticipated. And we got confirmation that economic data is firm," TD Securities global head of commodity strategy Bart Melek told Kitco News. "The next Fed move could be 50 basis points. And the central bank might not be able to stop there. And that means higher rates for longer."

The problem for gold is that the U.S. dollar has been climbing. "The hypothesis that the U.S. dollar will weaken in a big hurry is being questioned," Melek said.

For those playing the long game, OANDA senior market analyst Edward Moya told Kitco News that there are two drivers to keep an eye on.

The first is the new expectations for additional Fed tightening. "The Fed is clearly going to remain aggressive in tightening. The 50 bps startled a lot of traders," Moya said. "Even though half a point rate increase might not play out, the Fed will be hiking in March, May, and probably in June."

The CME FedWatch Tool currently sees an 18% chance of a 50 bps hike in March.

The second thing to watch is recession risks, which will start climbing as the Fed continues to raise rates. "It seems we are recession bound. This is an economy that will need a recession to bring down inflation. And markets will start to believe that," Moya noted.

And all the recession talk is good for gold, he added.


Gold price levels to watch

Analysts remain largely neutral on gold in the short-term as they see the $1,800 an ounce level as likely holding. "I don't think $1,800 will break. That is a huge support level," Moya said.

Next week, analysts will look at FOMC minutes from the February meeting, PMI data, the Fed's preferred inflation measure – core PCE, and more Fed speakers.

Longer-term, Melek is optimistic that the precious metal could still hit $2,000 an ounce towards the end of the year or in early 2024.

"The market will react to the actual pivot happening. The question is whether it will be later in 2023 or early 2024," Melek said. "As the economy slows, the Fed will decide that slower economic activity will do more harm than bringing inflation down to 2%."


Data next week

Tuesday: U.S. existing home sales, manufacturing PMI

Wednesday: FOMC February meeting minutes, FOMC member Williams speaks

Thursday: U.S. GDP Q4, U.S. jobless claims

Friday: U.S. PCE price index, U.S. new home sales

By Anna Golubova

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

What Have The Bureaucrats Planned To Save Banks In The Next Financial Crisis?

What Have The Bureaucrats Planned To Save Banks In The Next Financial Crisis? 

The government bailed them out…Now you will bail them in

Financial freedom is often misunderstood as meaning that you have lots of money. In actuality, financial freedom means that you own your assets, and you decide how, where, and when they are spent. Another misconception is that your money in the bank belongs to you, but in truth, the banks own your money and can use it to bail them out during the next economic crisis. 

The first time I heard the term “bailout” was in 2008 when the global economy was hit hard by a financial catastrophe caused by the bursting of the housing bubble. More accurately, big banks invested in bundles of bad mortgages, which crashed in value when the housing bubble burst. Initially, the big banks thought everything was fine. That was until the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008.

The Lehman Brothers institution was well-respected and the fourth-largest investment bank in the United States. As such, the news of its bankruptcy sent Wall Street into a frenzy that eventually threatened the entire financial system. Ultimately, the US government had to step in to bail out Wall Street. 

According to CNN, the US Treasury gave over $200 billion in loans to hundreds of financial institutions. This is less than a third of the total cost of bailing out the entire financial system, estimated to be $700 billion. Meanwhile, the regular people affected by the economic collapse got essentially nothing. Everyone knew that Wall Street speculation was to blame, but only one person went to jail; Kareem Serageldin, a former executive at Credit Suisse; however, all the other big bank executives were given bonuses.

The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) was supposed to investigate just how much the big banks were to blame for the 2008 GFC. However, the SEC allegedly destroyed the evidence it had been given as part of the investigation instead of exploring.

Image source: Satoshi Nakamoto Institute

Not surprisingly, the average person was not happy about how the GFC of 2008 was managed, even manipulated. And as many will know, the bank bailouts are why Satoshi Nakamoto created Bitcoin, which surfaced in 2008. However, the politicians had a different solution: passing a long list of new regulations. 

One of these was the Dodd-Frank Act in the United States, passed in July 2010 and infamous for being long and vaguely worded. It contains some questionable provisions, with the Act's primary focus being the enormous derivatives market.

For those unfamiliar, a derivative is an investment that derives its value from some underlying asset. One example is Futures; when you buy a Futures Contract, you're effectively betting that the price of some asset will be higher or lower at a future date without actually buying the asset itself. 

The total value of the derivative market is estimated to be as high as $1 quadrillion, or $1,000 trillion. The actual value is unknown because of poor accounting, but what is known is the 25 largest banks hold roughly $250 trillion of derivatives.

Image source: 

There’s no doubt that this is a substantial financial risk. That's why the Dodd-Frank Act included a provision that states that in the event of an economic collapse, derivatives claims come first. In other words, if 2008 happens again, derivatives debt owed by big banks will be paid off before anything else. The difference is that bailouts won't pay off these debts; they’ll be paid off by bail-ins

Bailouts, Bail-ins; What’s the difference?

Whereas a bailout is when a big bank receives money from the government or institution to pay back its debts, a bail-in is when it uses its clients' money to pay back its debts. This includes people who lent money to the bank and people who have money in accounts with the bank, such as you and me. 

The Dodd-Frank Act opened the door to allowing big banks to use their client funds to bail themselves ‘in’ the next time there is a financial crisis. It's assumed that an issue in the derivatives market will cause the next financial crisis. And derivatives debt will, again, take precedence in the payouts. 

So, who came up with this crazy idea? Two now-former key executives at Credit Suisse, Paul Calello and Wilson Ervin coined the term bail-in in an article for The Economist in January 2010. Paul died a few months later, reportedly from cancer; however, in a presentation about bail-ins, Wilson revealed that the people in power had been working on alternatives to bailouts since 2008. He explained that the desire to develop an alternative to bailouts increased after the financial crisis started to affect Europe. 

In mid-2012, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) published a paper advocating bail-ins as the ideal alternative to bailouts. All the IMF needed was somewhere to test this new bail-in method.

Enter Cyprus

Cyprus was one of the European countries that were hit the hardest when the 2008 contagion spread. By the end of 2012, Cyprus was on the brink of default and begging for a bailout. In early 2013, the IMF and the European Union bailed Cyprus out for €10 billion. As with all IMF loans, the bailout came with multiple conditions.

One of the conditions was for Cypress's largest bank to execute the first-ever bail-in. Almost 50% of all bank account balances worth more than €100,000 were seized. Cyprus was also required to take 6.9% of all bank balances lower than €100 thousand and 9.9% of all bank balances higher than €100,000, regardless of the bank. 

Despite the social chaos and capital controls that ensued, the IMF and its allies declared the first-ever bank bail-in a success. In 2014, the G20 countries agreed to pass bail-in laws per the Financial Stability Board’s (FSB) bail-in guidelines. The FSB's policies include issuing bail-in bonds, which should be sold to pension funds. This means your pension money could also be used to bail out banks. 

The United States was the first to legalize bail-ins in 2010, with the Dodd-Frank Act mentioned above. The UK followed suit in 2013 with the Financial Services Act, and the EU legalized bail-ins in 2016 with the Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive. In my country, Australia, the Australian government's new bank bail-in laws were sneakily pushed through parliament in February 2018 with only seven senators present. So be sure to check when your country legalized bail-ins. 

The specifics of bank bail-in laws vary from country to country; however, all these laws follow the same three rules, likely because of their collective conformity with the FSB. 

The First Rule

The first rule is that bank bail-ins are only allowed for banks that are deemed to be domestically or globally important. It could be more precise which banks fall into the domestically important category, but it's safe to assume that this rule pertains to those with the most assets under management. 

As for globally essential banks, the FSB publishes a list of them yearly, along with their de facto risk of default due to derivatives debt. There are currently 30 globally systemically important banks, with JPMorgan being noted as the highest risk. JPMorgan reportedly has $60 to $70 trillion of derivatives debt.

Image source:

What happens when a non-systemically important bank goes under? The answer is that they are acquired by a domestically or globally important bank. 

The Second Rule

The second rule of bank bail-ins is that they do not apply to bank balances below the deposit insurance threshold. In the US, the FDIC covers $250 thousand in deposits. In the UK, the FSCS covers £85,000; in the EU, it's €100,000 with various insurers involved. If you think this means your money is safe, think again. 

As pointed out by The Huffington Post, “deposit insurance funds in both the US and Europe are woefully underfunded, particularly when derivative claims are factored in." In short, insurers don't have enough money to cover all bank deposits. 

In the case of the FDIC, its 2021 annual report suggests that it only has around $120 billion in its Insurance Fund. This is chicken feed compared to the $19 trillion of bank deposits in the US and a drop in the ocean of the derivatives market, which could be in the $quadrillions. 

The Third Rule

However, a third rule of bank bail-ins states that you will be given some alternative asset in exchange for your lost deposits. Believe it or not, these alternative assets are typically shares in the bank you bailed out. I don’t think I would favor the bank taking my money and replacing it with its worthless stock in return. 

To compound matters, if governments passed laws to make Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) legal tender, you could be paid back in CBDC instead of cash. Incidentally, bank bail-ins would be the perfect way to force people to adopt CBDCs; perhaps that's the plan. 

Speculation aside, it's important to note that we could temporarily lose access to our funds during a bank bail-in. As we've seen with Cypress, banks could put limits on their hours of operations, limits on payments, transfers, and limitations on cash withdrawals until the bail-in process is complete. Can you imagine the social turmoil it would trigger if banks worldwide simultaneously imposed these bail-in restrictions on their depositors?   

Image source: Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.

Bail-In Simulation Phase

The ‘powers that be’ are hyper-aware of the looming unrest of ‘we the people’ because they've been coordinating bank bail-in simulations for years. The FDIC held the most recent high-profile bank simulation in November 2022. Several panelists from prominent financial institutions and regulators participated in the session, including Wilson Ervin, Chief Architect of the bank bail-in process. 

It was a tedious, lengthy discourse containing much financial jargon; the most exciting stuff began around the 1-hour mark, and snippets from this section went viral. At around 1:18 minutes into the video, one of the panelists speculates how the FDIC and its secret allies should maintain the public's confidence in the financial system when the bail-ins inevitably happen. She argues that transparency is the answer but that some entities should get more transparency than others.

This panelist also commented on ensuring the public understands that “prior compensation could be clawed back.” That sounds very much like the banks can take your money long after the bail-in process has been completed. She even asked the other panelists how they could “address excess cash use in such a crisis.” 

This suggests governments are planning on introducing a CBDC using bank bail-ins. Then again, it could reference the freeze on cash withdrawals mentioned above. The panelists also said they should “make the announcement on a Friday, ideally a Friday night.” For context, Fridays are famous for being one of the days when nobody pays attention to the news. Hence why bad news often comes out on Fridays.

The second panelist agreed with the first about being selective with transparency about the bail-in and specified that they should tell the banks and big investors first. He said they shouldn't tell the public until later because they would panic. The third panelist agreed with the second and said something sinister, akin to the public having more faith in the banking system than we do, let's keep it that way. The other panelists laughed. 

He continued to repeat that only institutional investors should know what's going on, and they should “be careful with what we tell the public.” But wait, there's more; a fourth panelist then said something even more sinister. The timestamp is around 1:27 minutes. She literally says, “the information should go out once we're moving out of the recession.” 

This fourth panelist explained that non-bank entities, including cryptocurrency exchanges, should be included in the bail-in process. This statement could mean that she wants them to be subject to acquisition by big banks or that she wants to use the crypto you hold on exchanges to bail them in. 

A little later, Wilson said they must ensure that disinformation about bank bail-ins doesn't get out before the fact-check-approved version of events. He even suggested that this online censorship should happen in advance so that people don't talk about their money being taken. Governments worldwide are rolling out precisely these kinds of online censorship laws, most of which will be going into force later this year or next year, as documented in this article.  

If you’re interested, the video of the entire simulation can be found on the FDIC website, but they haven't made it easy to find. Click on Archive, as shown in the image below, and scroll down to the video dated 2022-11-09, Systemic Resolution Advisory Committee.

Image sourced at:


What Can We Do To Protect Our Money?

So the big question is what we can do to protect our money from being taken by the big banks when the next financial crisis hits us. You can do many things, and they all fall under one umbrella: keep your money out of globally and domestically important banks. Check the details of bank bail-in laws in your country or region first. 

The first hedge against bank bail-ins is to move your money to smaller banks that are not globally or domestically important and have minimal exposure. Or even diversify savings across banks and in different countries. Monitor banks’ and institutions’ financial stability and avoid banks with large derivative and mortgage books.

Financial institutions should be chosen based on the strength of the institution. Jurisdictions should be selected based on political and economic stability. Culture and tradition of respecting private property and property rights are also significant.

The second hedge is to keep enough cash on hand to pay for at least a few months of expenses, depending on your personal circumstances, although this may be challenging or even possible. However, remember that fiat currencies are losing value by the day due to inflation and will continue to do.

The third hedge against bank bail-ins is to have physical gold in allocated accounts with outright legal ownership. Have some physical gold and silver in denominations that could be used for payment if necessary. If you are in the United States, gold and silver eagles are technically legal; however, there’s a catch. Their face value is much lower than their actual value. You can thank the government for that. 

The fourth hedge against bank bail-ins, and one which is increasingly becoming more popular, is to hold cryptocurrency. To be clear, this means decentralized cryptocurrencies, not centralized ones like stablecoins. Ideally, these cryptos will be kept in your own personal crypto wallet

In Closing

If the deliberations at the FDIC simulation are anything to go by, the people in power will start doing bank bail-ins after the next recession. It’s all speculation about when the next recession will be official. Still, it doesn't seem to matter because they don't plan on telling us that our money has been used to bail in the bank until all the institutional investors have gotten out. 

At least we know the announcement will be made on a Friday when nobody's paying attention, as per the FDIC panelist. The unpredictable factor is what happens after the bank bail-ins are announced. Again, the social unrest will be unprecedented. This could create another crisis that the people in power could use as an excuse to exercise even more control and bear in mind the possibility of CBDC-based insurance payouts. 

The silver lining to this situation is that people are becoming increasingly aware of what's happening and what the elites are planning. With all this upheaval society worldwide is experiencing, many are preparing to protect themselves and participating in parallel communities and economies to counter bureaucrats and their inept, self-serving policies. 

By the Grace of God, we will prevail while the powers that be fall on their swords. Our increasing knowledge made available to us via decentralized media gives us the wisdom to remain calm and optimistic that the ignorant and arrogant decision-makers are very close to their complete demise in this time of tribulation. May God bless us all.  

This information is provided for informational purposes only. Nothing herein shall be construed as financial, legal, or tax advice.



Editor and Chief Markethive: Deb Williams. (Australia) I thrive on progress and champion freedom of speech. I embrace "Change" with a passion, and my purpose in life is to enlighten people to accept and move forward with enthusiasm. Find me at my Markethive Profile Page | My Twitter Account | and my LinkedIn Profile.





Tim Moseley

Gold rallies as bulls brush off hot US inflation report

Gold rallies as bulls brush off hot U.S. inflation report

Gold prices are moderately up and silver slightly higher in midday U.S. trading Thursday, in the aftermath of a U.S. inflation report that came in hot. Gold and silver traders may reckon that recent sell offs have already factored into the metals’ prices the fact the Federal Reserve will have to remain hawkish for longer on U.S. monetary policy. April gold was up $6.50 at $1,851.70 and March silver was up $0.118 at $21.69.

Today’s U.S. producer price index report for January came in at up 0.7% month-on-month, which was well above the PPI forecast of up 0.4% from December, following a decline of 0.5% in December from November. The hotter PPI report falls into the camp of the U.S. monetary policy hawks, who want to see the Fed continue to raise U.S. interest rates to choke off problematic price inflation.

Global stock markets were mostly higher. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins. The fact the U.S. dollar index could not rally on today’s hot PPI number also suggests the market place has dialed in the Fed’s future intentions on keeping interest rates higher for longer.

 Frank Giustra warns that the dollar will be dethroned in 'bifurcated' global monetary system, CBDCs and AI could usher in a 'terrifying' world with mass joblessness and digital 'control'

The key outside markets see the U.S. dollar index a bit weaker on a corrective pullback from recent good gains that saw the index hit a five-week high Wednesday. Nymex crude oil futures prices are slightly up and trading around $78.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 3.836%.

Technically, April gold futures prices hit a six-week low early on today. Bulls have the very slight overall near-term technical advantage. A fledgling downtrend is in place on the daily chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $1,900.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,800.00. First resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of $1,870.90 and then at this week’s high of $1,881.60. First support is seen at today’s low of $1,836.60 and then at $1,825.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

March silver futures were prices Wednesday hit a 2.5-month low. The silver bears have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $23.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $21.00. First resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of $21.875 and then at this week’s high of $22.085. Next support is seen at this week’s low of $21.385 and then at $21.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

March N.Y. copper closed up 1,205 points at 413.05 cents today. Prices closed near the session high on short covering after hitting a five-week low on Wednesday. The copper bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. A fledgling price downtrend on the daily bar chart was negated today. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the January high of 435.50 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 380.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 420.00 cents and then at 425.00 cents. First support is seen at 405.00 cents and then at 400.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

By Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Hawkish Fed forward guidance pressure gold lower

Hawkish Fed forward guidance pressure gold lower

Gold continues to trade under pressure moving to lower prices after yesterday’s CPI report for January indicated that inflation declined to 6.4% year-over-year. January’s CPI report came in lower by 6.4% year-over-year, than the prior month of December. However, analysts were expecting a larger decline with expectations that yesterday’s report would come in between 6.2% and 6.3%. When combined with last week’s unexpected jobs report the collective information will allow the Federal Reserve to maintain its aggressive stance which means more interest rate hikes, and that rates will remain elevated longer.

Chairman Powell has been resolute in his commitment to keeping higher rates elevated throughout the entire calendar year. Market participants are beginning to accept the high probability that the Fed will take rates to between 5.1% and 5.2% and keep them elevated with no rate cuts in 2023.

Bullish factors are outweighed by immediate concerns about inflation and rate hikes

While gold has traded under pressure there are bullish undertones that at some point could come into play. The dollar has been gaining strength when compared to other currencies, but for Americans, the dollar's purchasing power continues to be diminished, a byproduct of higher levels of inflation. The national debt continues to grow and the United States has reached its debt limit which means that the government will have to raise the debt ceiling which means that the United States will grow its national debt to a higher level.

Gold futures basis the most active April 2023 contract is currently down $18.80 or 1.01% and fixed at $1846.60. Dollar strength was responsible for a little over half of today’s decline with the dollar gaining 63 points (+0.61%) and the dollar index is currently fixed at 103.76.

Another factor pressuring gold lower is that recent data has suggested that the Federal Reserve could modify its current rate target of 5.1% to closer to 6% to accelerate the process of reducing inflation.

Gold intrinsically benefits from higher levels of inflation and higher interest rates are detrimental. This is because gold does not generate a yield which makes US treasuries and other interest-bearing assets more favorable.

Although this is a headline-driven market and current headlines have had a hard impact that took gold prices lower technical indicators will come into play at the point in which investors believe that gold is becoming oversold and more valuable than current pricing.

Our technical studies indicate that it is highly probable that gold will trade to $1815 before finding technical support. This is based upon a Fibonacci retracement of 61.8%. The data set used for this retracement begins at $1719 and concludes at $1980.

By Gary Wagner

Contributing to

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

BLS releases headline CPI inflation report today for January 2023

BLS releases headline CPI inflation report today for January 2023

Traders and investors have been patiently waiting for today’s inflation report to glean information on whether or not the Fed will maintain its current monetary policy or adjust it to a somewhat looser policy. The report came in very close to estimates and did indicate that inflation is continuing to diminish. However, the increase in headline inflation at 0.5% was the biggest month-to-month increase since June 2022.

The report indicated that headline inflation (including energy and food costs) declined for the seventh straight month. January’s numbers came in at 6.4% year-over-year which is a month-over-month increase of 0.5%.

I believe the biggest takeaway from today’s report was that when combined with the last jobs report that was exceedingly robust it gives the Federal Reserve the ammunition to continue its aggressive monetary stance because today’s report and the jobs report last week indicate that the strength of the economy is such that it can handle recent rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.

Some analysts including myself believe that soon inflation reduction will become more difficult than it has been in the past. Those analysts are anticipating that at some point inflationary pressures will become more persistent and harder to tame. Another issue is that the Federal Reserve cannot alone solve the problem because the administration is the political body that sets the budget and continues to increase the national debt by spending more than before and most importantly increasing the national debt.

Another takeaway from today’s report is that it is highly probable that the Federal Reserve will raise rates again in March. According to the CME’s FedWatch, the probability of a ¼% rate hike at the next FOMC meeting is 90%. If there is any sunshine or bright news to today’s report it is that I believe that it will be highly likely that the Federal Reserve will raise rates by ¼% next month but then pause because there is an intrinsic time lag between a rate hike and seeing how that affects the economic contraction that is the goal of the Federal Reserve to reduce inflation.


Gold futures basis the most active April contract is currently trading at $1.30 higher and fixed at $1864.80. Dollar neutrality neither helped nor hindered today’s move in gold. But the fractional upside move indicates that today’s report has not dramatically changed market sentiment for gold and most likely will not be the single factor that results in a key reversal from the bearish market sentiment currently to bullish market sentiment.

My last concern is the fact that the revision for the December inflation report revealed a different picture and outlook and that raises the question as to whether or not the numbers released today are going to have a similar revision further down the road.

By Gary Wagner

Contributing to

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Gold silver down on position evening ahead of US CPI

Gold, silver down on position evening ahead of U.S. CPI

Gold and silver prices are lower in midday U.S. trading Monday, with silver hitting a 2.5-month low and gold a five-week bottom. The near-term chart postures for both metals have deteriorated recently, which are prompting some technical selling pressure. Also, weak long liquidation in the gold and silver futures markets is likely featured today, ahead of a key U.S. inflation report Tuesday. April gold was last down $10.40 at $1,864.00 and March silver was down $0.175 at $21.90.

Traders and investors are awaiting the U.S. economic data point of the week on Tuesday morning–the consumer price index report for January. The CPI is seen up 6.2%, year-on-year, compared to the rise of 6.5% in the December report. On Thursday, the U.S. producer price index report is released. The expected CPI number is still hot—even if it is down from previous CPI reports–and a print that comes in close to it may still keep the Federal Reserve in a monetary-policy-tightening mode for the next few months. That’s likely in part why gold and silver bulls are mostly standing on the sidelines today.

Global stock markets were mixed overnight, with European shares mostly higher and Asian shares mostly lower. U.S. stock indexes are higher at midday.

 Gold price is going to $2,200 as central banks break the global economy – Degussa's Thorsten Polleit

The key outside markets see the U.S. dollar index slightly firmer. Nymex crude oil futures prices are near steady and trading around $79.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 3.724%.

There was no major U.S. economic data released Monday.

Technically, April gold futures prices hit a five-week low today. Bulls still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. However, they continue to fade. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the February high of $1,975.20. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,800.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $1,877.20 and then at $1,885.00. First support is seen at $1,850.00 and then at $1,835.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

March silver futures prices hit a 2.5-month low today. The silver bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field but bears have some momentum on their side. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $23.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $21.00. First resistance is seen at $22.25 and then at last week’s high of $22.635. Next support is seen at $21.50 and then at $21.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

March N.Y. copper closed up 360 points at 405.35 cents today. Prices closed near the session high. The copper bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, a fledgling price downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the January high of 435.50 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 380.00 cents. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of 412.05 cents and then at 417.50 cents. First support is seen at the February low of low of $3.9930 and then at 395.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

By Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

US fighter jet shoots down UFO over Canada Trudeau says

U.S. fighter jet shoots down UFO over Canada, Trudeau says

WASHINGTON/OTTAWA, Feb 11 (Reuters) – A U.S. F-22 fighter jet shot down an unidentified object over Canada on Saturday, the second such shootdown in as many days, as North America appeared on heightened alert following a week-long Chinese spying balloon saga that drew the global spotlight.

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced the shootdown on Twitter and said it took place over the Yukon territory in the country's north. He said Canadian forces would recover and analyze the wreckage from the object.

Trudeau also said he had spoken with U.S. President Joe Biden about the incident, a day after Biden ordered a shootdown of an unidentified flying object over sea ice near Deadhorse, Alaska. The U.S. military on Saturday was still tight-lipped about what, if anything, it had learned as recovery efforts were underway.

The Pentagon on Friday offered only a few details, including that the object was the size of a small car, it was flying at about 40,000 feet and could not maneuver and appeared to be unmanned. U.S. pilots and intelligence officials have been trying to learn about the object since it was first spotted on Thursday.

"We have no further details at this time about the object, including its capabilities, purpose, or origin," Northern Command said on Saturday.

It noted difficult arctic weather conditions, including wind chill, snow, and limited daylight that hinder search and recovery efforts.

"Personnel will adjust recovery operations to maintain safety," Northern Command said.

On Feb. 4, a U.S. F-22 fighter jet brought down what the U.S. government called a Chinese surveillance balloon off the coast of South Carolina following its week-long journey across the United States and portions of Canada. China's government has said it was a civilian research vessel.

Some U.S. lawmakers criticized Biden for not shooting down the Chinese balloon sooner. The U.S. military had recommended waiting until it was over the ocean out of fear of injuries from falling debris.

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

This is the next big catalyst for gold price

This is the next big catalyst for gold price

Gold is looking at its third consecutive week of losses after January's rally, which saw its best start to the year in over a decade. And now all eyes shift to next week's U.S. inflation report, with analysts saying it could be the next big catalyst for the precious metal.

After surging to $1,975 an ounce last week, April Comex gold futures are now trading at $1,870.70 an ounce, down 5.3% from that peak.

"The dollar is reverting, and the Fed remains hawkish, which is weighing on gold," RJO Futures senior market strategist Frank Cholly told Kitco News.

Gold's bullish sentiment began to change after a strong employment report out of the U.S. last week showed job gains of 517,000 in January.

This was followed by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell confirming markets' worries that if the U.S. economy continues to surprise on the upside, the central bank would be forced to raise rates higher than anticipated.

Powell brought out just the right amount of "Fed speak" when he appeared at the Economic Club of Washington, D.C., Tuesday. On the one hand, he reiterated that the "disinflation process" has begun. On the other hand, he warned that if data continue to come in stronger, the Fed will move peak rates higher.

"It really fits well with the definition of what we often call Fed speak, which is a strategy by the chairman of the Fed to speak out of both sides of their mouth so that the markets get both signals," Gainesville Coins precious metals expert Everett Millman told Kitco News. "The hope is that things remain steady and both sides have something to latch to. That's exactly what Powell did. The most likely outcome here is that the Fed continues along its rate hike path until the economy falters."

What to watch with the CPI report

Next week, the gold market is gearing up for a number of key macro releases. Tuesday's CPI report is the one to watch as it could be the next big catalyst for the precious metals space, TD Securities senior commodity strategist Daniel Ghali told Kitco News.

"We need a substantial catalyst for subsequent selling activity to ensue in gold. It could come in the form of next week's CPI data. At the same time, if the CPI won't be a big enough shock, gold won't see a lot of selling activity into next week," Ghali described.

Even if the CPI report continues to show slowing inflation, the Fed won't be ready to take its foot off the gas yet, said Cholly. "Gold has a little more downside," he said.

Market consensus calls are projecting annual inflation to slow to 6.2% in January from December's 6.5%.

"We think that inflation will fall by more than the consensus, which should give a lift to commodity prices as it will allay fears of a more hawkish Fed and higher U.S. interest rates for longer," said analysts at Capital Economics.

Ghali also pointed out that a large cohort of investors still sees gold as overvalued, but it is unclear who would be willing to sell based on the flow perspective.

The recent central bank gold buying has supported gold, and the market is waiting to see if that trend will continue.

The participants that have driven the gold rally above $1,800 have been central banks and short-covering, Ghali said. "If that trend continues, then I would feel more comfortable with gold holding above $1,800," he noted.

The World Gold Council amended its Gold Demand Trends report this week, stating that central bank gold buying was at a record high in 2022, with 1,136 tonnes purchased.

Gold price levels

Gold's potential trading range is pretty wide at the moment, with strong support currently at $1,800 an ounce and resistance at $1,900, Ghali noted.

Cholly is looking at the $1,850-$1,855 range. "Moving averages are important. We are sitting at a 50-day right now. And the 200-day is at $1,812. Somewhere between these two marks, there is market equilibrium. Gold will consolidate and recover from those levels," he said.

Key data next week

Other data to keep an eye on include U.S. retail sales, the Producer Price Index, and industrial production.

"January activity data is going to be strong throughout. The contrast between the weather in mid-late December, where it was incredibly cold, versus a very mild January, couldn't be more stark," said ING chief international economist James Knightley. "This means there will be delayed consumption, plus better weather means more people out and about, which in all likelihood will lift January spending. We already know auto sales were very strong and that will lift retail sales mightily on its own."

Tuesday: U.S. CPI

Wednesday: U.S. retail sales, N.Y. Empire State manufacturing index, U.S. industrial production

Thursday: U.S. PPI, U.S. jobless claims, U.S. housing starts and building permits, Philly Fed manufacturing index

By Anna Golubova

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Investors wait for CPI numbers but the bearish sentiment remains on Fed’s narrative

Investors wait for CPI numbers but the bearish sentiment remains on Fed’s narrative

Gold investors had a wake-up call last Thursday when gold futures hit $1974, the highest value of 2023. But that same day also marked the beginning of a correction. Gold would lose approximately $90 per ounce over last Thursday and Friday.

This week started with a whimper with gold trading to a higher high and higher low on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. However, each day had fractional gains and through the eyes of a Japanese candlestick chart were identified as spinning tops which always have a small real body (the rectangle drawn between the open and closing price of a trading session). While gold prices did have gains it was obvious that this strength was tepid at best.

On a technical basis, gold was attempting to find support at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level which is considered an acceptable but shallow correction. The caveat though is that gold as well as the financial markets at large have been headline driven based on the latest comments of Federal Reserve officials.

In December the Federal Reserve released its most current economic projections and “dot plot” which contained the anticipated rate changes by the Federal Reserve as 17 Federal Reserve members placed their opinion (as a dot). December's projections of interest rates in 2023 contained the stark realization that unanimously voting members of the Federal Reserve anticipated taking the current benchmark rate higher with the goal of just over 5% and maintaining those elevated rates throughout the entire calendar year of 2023.

The elevated hawkish tone reflecting expected actions by the Federal Reserve began to factor into the current pricing of precious metals, US treasuries, and stocks. A faction of market participants continues to believe that there would be rate cuts this year contrary to what the Federal Reserve’s narrative was and continues to be. However last week’s announcement by the Federal Reserve was that they might have to take rates to a higher target closer to 6%. This most likely is what prompted the selloff at the end of last week.

Thursday was the only day this week in which gold prices closed below the opening value and today’s action resulted in a fractional decline of roughly $3.30. As of 4:45 PM EST, the most active April futures contract is currently fixed at $1875. Silver also has been trading under pressure for the better part of this week with the most active March contract attempting to hold pricing at $22 per ounce. Currently, March silver futures are fixed at $22.01 after factoring in today’s decline of just over $0.12 per ounce.

Dollar strength was certainly a strong component providing moderate to strong headwinds as dollar strength characterized today’s action. The dollar index gained 0.37% in trading and is currently fixed at 103.49.

Investors are waiting for the next report on headline inflation vis-à-vis the CPI next Tuesday. They are hoping to gain better insight into possible pivots by the Federal Reserve concerning their rate hikes. The most important takeaway of price action over the last few weeks has less to do with any technical indicators and more to do with the event-driven news based on the current narrative of the Federal Reserve.

By Gary Wagner

Contributing to

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

The Artist that came out of the Winter