The gold price is up nearly 19 in this rally but you haven’t seen anything yet – abrdn’s Robert Minter

The gold price is up nearly 19% in this rally, but you haven’t seen anything yet – abrdn’s Robert Minter

Although Western investors continue to ignore gold even as prices continue to hit record highs, they are no longer actively getting in the way of higher prices, which means the current rally has legs to run higher, according to one market analyst.

In an interview with Kitco News, Robert Minter, Director Of Investment Strategy at abrdn, said that gold’s rally to record highs above $2,350 an ounce is just getting started, and it's only a matter of time before retail investors jump into gold-backed exchange-traded funds to kick off the next major leg higher.

Minter’s comments come as abrdn celebrates a significant milestone with its gold-backed ETF. Last week, assets under management in abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF (NYSE: SGOL) surpassed $3 billion for the first time.

Although investment demand remains somewhat lukewarm, Minter said gold investors should be content that at least the selling has stopped.

Minter explained that since April 2022, ETF investors have sold around 750 tonnes of gold, creating a massive supply in the marketplace that was met with two years of historic demand from central banks.

Minter pointed out that central bank demand hasn’t gone away; however, the supply of gold has dried up as ETF selling has slowed to a trickle. Although central bank gold buying has slowed in recent weeks, Minter said the overall trend in official purchases remains higher.

“If you were a prudent central bank fund manager in some of these countries, you would diversify away from the dollar to reduce your risk, plain and simple,” he said.

However, the broader question remains: when will Western investors embrace gold again? Minter said that he expects Western investors are waiting for an actual rate cut from the Federal Reserve.

Despite new insight from a bevy of central bankers last week, the Federal Reserve has remained somewhat coy on the start of the next easing cycle. Some monetary policy committee members have said they would be reluctant to cut interest rates as inflation remains elevated.

While the timing of the Federal Reserve’s easing cycle remains a moving target, Minter said that there is no question that interest rates will have to come down.

With credit card debt at record highs, insurance premiums rising across the board, and government debt growing out of control, the U.S. economy can’t afford to keep interest rates in restrictive territory much longer, Minter said.

“The Fed has made enough mistakes in the last three years that I think they're very cautious not to make another,” he said. “If you were the Chair, you would have to know the impact of the magnitude of the rate rises you've done in a short time will have on the economy. This kind of monetary policy usually breaks something in the economy on a structural level, and you have to play catch up really quickly. You certainly wouldn't risk much higher unemployment just to bring housing inflation down a few tenths of a percent.”

Even if the Fed holds rates unchanged through the summer, Minter said that he still expects to see rate cuts and the start of a new easing cycle before the end of the year.

Since holding support at $2,000 in early February, gold prices have rallied nearly 19%, with prices hitting a new intraday-day at $2372.50 an ounce early Monday. However, Minter said there is still significant value in the gold market even after this rally.

“Regardless of timing or magnitude, the next Fed funds move is a cut, and historically, that led to 57%, 235%, and 69% gold price increases in 2000, 2006, and 2018,” he said. “Even with prices up 18%, we haven’t seen anything yet.”

Kitco Media

Neils Christensen

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

What Is Altcoin Season? When Will It Start? Or Is It Already Here?

What Is Altcoin Season? When Will It Start? Or Is It Already Here?

Altcoin season, a term on the lips of many cryptocurrency enthusiasts since Bitcoin's recent surge to unprecedented heights, is a phenomenon many have eagerly anticipated. However, despite this anticipation, only a select few coins and tokens, along with many meme coins, have experienced substantial growth. This has led to speculation that altcoin season may never arrive, as funds flowing into spot Bitcoin ETFs may not be redirected towards the broader cryptocurrency market. But is this the full story?

With the invaluable insights of some highly credible crypto experts, this article takes a deep dive into the current state of the cryptocurrency market. It focuses on the 'altcoin season' concept and its potential impact on market trends. The article explores why altcoin season has yet to occur and predicts when it may begin. It also offers insights on how to recognize its onset. Additionally, the article highlights the types of alternative cryptocurrencies (altcoins) that may be worth watching during this period.

The Concept of Altcoin Season

Firstly, let's touch on the concept of altcoin season, a term that lacks a universally accepted definition. Some assume it refers to a period where numerous altcoins are experiencing a surge in value, with many believing that it's already underway. Given the recent performance of certain altcoins, one could argue that it's already here. However, this definition falls short of accurately capturing the concept, so here’s a more precise and nuanced explanation.

An altcoin season is an extended timeframe during which most alternative coins exhibit notable outperformance compared to Bitcoin. This can be gauged by analyzing the price of an altcoin with Bitcoin, for example, ETH/BTC. When assessing the BTC pair for various altcoins, it becomes evident that their performance has not been particularly strong. However, this does not imply that they have not experienced price increases in fiat currency; rather, it indicates that their gains have been comparatively lower when measured against Bitcoin. 

The current situation with ETH and BTC is a significant development in the cryptocurrency market. ETH's value has decreased compared to BTC, which has raised concerns among traders and investors. Historically, increases in BTC's value have often been followed by a shift in investments towards alternative cryptocurrencies, leading to a period where most altcoins perform better than BTC. 


Source: Coinmarketcap

In the past, the trend has been to invest in ETH and then move on to other major alternative cryptocurrencies, followed by mid-cap and small-cap altcoins. It is important to note that this progression is not always precise but generally aligns with the idea that investors gravitate towards more speculative crypto assets as market momentum continues. Interestingly, in the current scenario, there has been limited shifting of funds into ETH, as indicated by the underperformance of the ETH/BTC pair mentioned earlier.

Furthermore, it appears that the influx of capital did not favor midcaps and small-caps but instead directed attention towards micro-cap meme coins for speculative purposes. It is important to note that while certain altcoins like Solana's SOL have shown impressive performance compared to BTC, most altcoins, including ETH, have not surpassed BTC's growth. This suggests that the altcoin season may have yet to arrive fully.

As indicated earlier, cryptocurrencies with smaller market capitalizations tend to be riskier. This is because crypto with a smaller market cap has the potential to experience more significant and rapid price increases compared to those with larger market caps. However, on the flip side, small-cap cryptocurrencies are also prone to more substantial drops in value, highlighting the risk/reward ratio. 

The notable 100x returns often associated with certain altcoins are typically achievable with those that have smaller market caps, explaining the hype around the altcoin season. Nevertheless, there are indications that the current cryptocurrency market cycle differs from previous ones, which could have significant implications for the returns on altcoins.

The Question on Everyone's Mind: When Will Altcoin Season Arrive?

Many wonder why the current market cycle hasn't followed the same pattern as previous ones, with altcoins yet to take center stage. To understand this, we must first acknowledge the unique factor setting this cycle apart: spot Bitcoin ETFs.  As discussed earlier, some believe these ETFs are hindering the rotation into altcoins, as investors cannot easily switch from ETFs to altcoins, at least in theory. However, some investors may be cashing out their ETF gains and moving their funds to cryptocurrency exchanges like Coinbase, where they can invest in altcoins. 

The catch is that most investors in spot Bitcoin ETFs are not your average retail investors but seasoned institutional investors. These institutional investors, also known as TradFi whales, have a significant influence on the market. As a result, their preferences for alternative cryptocurrencies may diverge from those of the typical crypto enthusiast. Notably, there has been substantial institutional interest in SOL, which could explain its outperformance compared to BTC. 

However, the crypto market is not solely composed of institutional investors. There are two other types of crypto investors: crypto whales and retail investors. Crypto whales, which are large holders of cryptocurrencies, have been the primary influencers in the crypto market so far. Their shift from Bitcoin to alternative coins has led to past cycles in altcoins, while retail investors have pushed these coins to their peak values. Put simply, the crypto market has not lost anything. It has merely introduced a new main character, figuratively speaking. 

The lack of an alt season is not caused by the introduction of ETFs but rather by the actions of crypto whales and retail investors. The analysts at Coinbureau suggest that these crypto whales are not shifting their investments or rotating into altcoins because there currently needs to be more retail investors interested in purchasing them.


Source: Crypto Max on X

Numerous indicators suggest that retail investors are gradually becoming more interested in cryptocurrency despite their limited participation in the current market upswing. This is evidenced by increased retail trading activity on cryptocurrency exchanges, the growing popularity of crypto exchange apps, rising search volumes for crypto-related terms, and heightened social media engagement with crypto content. However, these metrics have not reached the levels indicating a massive influx of new retail investors into the cryptocurrency market.

The crucial factor here is the influx of new retail investors. While millions of retail investors from previous cycles are still active or returning, we need to see more new entrants into the market. This is a significant concern, as altcoins rely heavily on new investors to drive their growth and create upward momentum. As a retail investor, you can influence the altcoin season. There need to be marginal buyers.

As Coinbureau states, “We need new people for our altcoin bags to pump, probably because most of us have already allocated as much as we can to our favorite coins and tokens. In the absence of these new people, there's not that much for us to do except speculate on memecoins, and it's quite possible that the memecoin pumps we've seen have been coordinated by the crypto whales. They probably know that the only retail investors around right now are experienced enough to use DEXs.” 

The Onset of Altcoin Season

After analyzing the delay in the arrival of altcoin season, the next question is when we can expect it to begin. The straightforward answer is that it will start when a sufficient number of retail investors take notice. This will prompt crypto whales to shift their focus from Bitcoin to altcoins that retail investors will then eagerly buy into, leading to a chain reaction of FOMO (fear of missing out). However, a more in-depth analysis, which necessitates a look back at the previous cycle, reveals a more intricate scenario. Most of us envision the upcoming altcoin season as a repeat of the last cycle, but the reality may be more complex. 

The issue lies in the significant differences observed in the previous cycle. Due to a worldwide pandemic, billions of individuals were confined to their homes while a few hundred million received a stimulus payment, providing them additional funds. These events led to widespread speculation in both stocks and cryptocurrencies. Today, the situation is starkly contrasted as interest rates across various nations are at their highest levels in years. Unofficial inflation rates are soaring in most countries, reaching double digits. Several countries are experiencing or nearing recession.

Above all, most individuals are reportedly accumulating unprecedented levels of debt to maintain their standard of living. This trend starkly contrasts with the circumstances observed during the previous alt season. A positive aspect is that the prolonged persistence of these conditions may prompt governments and central banks to provide comparable forms of economic support, never mind the possibility of an existential shock. 

This means that there will likely come a time when economic conditions mirror those seen during the pandemic, with similar fiscal and monetary support levels. The exact timing is uncertain, but it may take a significant event to prompt such action. Identical to past patterns, this could cause a brief decline in cryptocurrency and other asset values, followed by a stabilization period and a sharp price increase as the stimulus takes effect.

If the current state of the market persists, altcoins may suffer under unfavorable circumstances. If trends continue, including high interest rates, rising inflation, recurring recessions, and mounting retail debt, the subsequent altcoin season may fall short of expectations. It's essential to recognize that the cryptocurrency market has undergone significant changes since the previous cycle, with factors beyond spot Bitcoin ETFs contributing to its evolution. 

Regulations in the US, UK, and other countries have made it more difficult for retail investors to reach offshore trading platforms where highly speculative altcoins are traded. The upcoming EU stablecoins regulations are anticipated to impact the cryptocurrency market significantly. It has been announced that USD stablecoins will no longer be allowed in the EU by the end of the year, potentially reducing the options for retail investors to trade cryptocurrencies.

Identifying the Arrival of Altcoin Season

To determine the onset of the altcoin season, keep a close eye on several key indicators. These include retail trading volume, the popularity of crypto exchange apps, Google searches, and social media views related to cryptocurrency. When you observe a steady increase in these metrics, alt season is likely imminent. Interestingly, there are signs that this trend may already be underway. For instance, search queries related to buying cryptocurrency have started to rise after years of stagnation, although they still have a long way to go before reaching their previous peak.


Source: Google Trends

The current market dynamics are making it challenging to determine whether we are witnessing the inception of a new alt season or a fleeting speculative surge. A valuable approach to shed light on this puzzle is examining how cryptocurrency projects promote themselves, specifically during periods of heightened attention. A typical pattern among cryptocurrency projects is to unveil significant announcements when public interest is at its peak.

There have been instances where crypto projects have postponed significant updates and announcements due to a lack of interest from retail investors. Despite this, numerous crypto projects have been making notable announcements, which could suggest the beginning of a new altcoin season. However, these announcements have not resulted in significant speculative buying, indicating that retail investors remain scarce.


Source: CoinMarketCal

As the popularity of cryptocurrency projects grows, you may notice a surge in big announcements and subsequent price increases for their coins or tokens. This is often a sign that retail investors have entered the market. When these altcoin announcements start making headlines in mainstream news, it could indicate that the market is nearing its peak. 

Some of you have probably encountered additional key indicators, like inquiries from friends and family regarding the crypto market or, worse, seeking advice on investing in meme coins. However, these signals may not hold much weight unless individuals actively invest. Suppose widespread media coverage of altcoins is not leading to a substantial market increase, and your acquaintances are not showing significant interest. In that case, it may not truly be an alt season. 

A possible indicator of an impending alt season is to evaluate whether these signs are present when, based on historical patterns, an altcoin season would be expected to occur from a cycle perspective. However, this can be difficult to determine as the introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs has disrupted the typical cycle. For reference, the current phase of the cycle should resemble the early 2020 period, characterized by gradually increasing prices followed by a sudden crash triggered by an unexpected event before ultimately continuing their upward trend.

It's worth considering that our timeline may be advancing at an accelerated pace. Specifically, we could be closer to the late 2020 stage of the crypto market cycle, irrespective of the introduction of Bitcoin ETFs. With two completed crypto cycles (2017 and 2021) under their belts, millions of individuals are now familiar with the narrative and its subsequent developments.


Source: Bitcoin News on X

The impact is that we won't have to wait 12 months for the altcoin season to begin like we did in 2020. Instead, it could start in just a few months. However, this is based on the assumption that we're on an accelerated timeline. It's possible that cryptocurrency is still following the same schedule, which means we might be ahead of schedule for alt season.

Which Altcoins Should Be Monitored

Which altcoins should you watch this season? I concur with Coinbureau that it might be ideal to start building up your portfolio if we are in the early stages of the altcoin season. However, it's essential to note that this is not financial advice, and it's equally possible it's not the best time to do so.

Coinbureau analysts suggest that the altcoins you must watch this season will be the most accessible to retail investors.  As mentioned earlier, EU regulations and, consequently, the structure of the crypto market will ensure that most retail investing will take place on onshore exchanges like Coinbase. In light of this potential scenario, focusing on altcoins listed on Coinbase may be prudent.

This is connected to a previous point about market capitalization. The higher the market cap, the lower the risk and the potential reward. The smaller the market cap, the bigger the risk, but the bigger the reward. Selecting a cryptocurrency with a lower price tag may also be advantageous. Many individual investors assume that a lower price indicates the possibility of more significant price increases, but the market cap is the most important. Therefore, by choosing a low price and market cap cryptocurrency, you can establish some solid fundamentals, often referred to by some influencers as "pumpamentals."

While being listed on Coinbase and having a low price point and market capitalization can benefit an altcoin, more is needed to guarantee success. For an altcoin to truly thrive, it must fit into a broader, bullish narrative that resonates with the average retail investor. This article explores the dominant narratives likely to drive the next bull market.


Image: Markethive.com

Researching the tokenomics of the crypto you want to invest in is vital to ensure it is genuine and has maximum potential. This involves examining the future circulation of coins or tokens, as you wouldn't want to invest in a promising altcoin only to face a sudden sell-off by the developers and their venture capital supporters. Also, you need to select a smart contract cryptocurrency on which the most promising tokens are trading. 


Image: Cointelegraph

It is essential to understand that holding onto a promising altcoin for a longer term could be beneficial if you enter the market at the right time. Numerous cryptocurrency enthusiasts can confirm that they would have been equally successful today if they had kept their altcoins during the market downturn. Cryptocurrency, at its core, is designed to revolutionize various systems, so it's important to have a long-term perspective on your investments.

Although many of these systems and their associated projects may fail, a few will endure. The ones that survive have the potential to become extremely valuable, possibly even worth trillions of dollars in the future, much like Bitcoin, which is currently valued at over $1 trillion. It is crucial to note that BTC boasts the lengthiest and most proven track record among all coins and tokens, rendering it the most secure cryptocurrency to retain in comparison.

Other cryptos will more than likely someday achieve the same safe haven status as BTC, so considering all the key indicators along with a crypto’s community, utility and purpose, ecosystem, and solutions it offers in the spectrum, it shouldn’t be too hard to work out which ones to watch out for. For that large-cap security, you might want to consider investing in the original cryptocurrency that has the potential to become the global reserve currency

This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

 


 

Editor and Chief Markethive: Deb Williams. (Australia) I thrive on progress and champion freedom of speech.  I embrace "Change" with a passion, and my purpose in life is to enlighten people to accept and move forward with enthusiasm. Find me at my Markethive Profile Page | My Twitter Account | and my LinkedIn Profile.

 

 

 

 

 

Tim Moseley

Gold’s 2024 price ceiling is now the floor silver is approaching sweet spot’ for investors MKS Pamp

Gold’s 2024 price ceiling is now the floor, silver is approaching ‘sweet spot’ for investors – MKS Pamp

The first quarter of 2024 was all about gold, according to an updated outlook from MKS Pamp. “We were not bullish enough Gold in Q1’24 and were too bullish Silver and Platinum,” the analysts said, “but the relative outperformance between Gold and the white metals (Silver & PGMs) should compress in Q2’24 & Q3’24.”

In their recently published Precious Metals Outlook 2024 – Revised Forecasts, the Swiss precious metals giant broke down the sector’s performance in detail, and laid out their adjusted predictions for the remainder of the year.

 

The analysts wrote that gold has shown sensitivity to central banks’ tolerance of higher rates to address sticky inflation.

“Original Forecast $2050/oz (mildly bullish vs the street) is now upgraded to $2200/oz (outright bullish) as Gold sniffs out a collective turn in major CB policy willing to accept higher for long inflation, amidst solid physical demand,” they wrote. “Our original 2024 forecast published in January was $2050/oz (high-low range of $1900-$2200/oz), hinging on the Fed cutting rates as the global economy slowed. We also expected new all-time highs. So far Gold has already taken out our high price forecast of $2200/oz with the timing as expected as Gold preempts a Fed rate cutting cycle, while Central Bank and physical demand remains relentless.”

They noted that one of their bull cases was based on “Asian or CB physical demand being stronger than expected” and this “has played out (earlier than expected) and is the game changing development behind higher [price] floors.”

Among the factors that did not align with their original forecasts were interest rate cuts being pushed further back while the U.S. economy continued to outperform. “We also expected an underinvested investor community to subscribe in a meaningful way and drive the price rerating which has not been the case (so far),” they said. “We did not expect the emergence of an accelerated physical purchasing program” driven by runaway Chinese demand, which has propelled “shallower dips and a persistent rally that has not been short-lived as in the past 4 peaks seen post-COVID.”

They also pointed out that “both producer-related and secondary supply has not reengaged (as expected) at price peaks, and that lack of structural selling has allowed Gold to float higher.”

The updated forecasts now have gold averaging $2,200 per ounce in 2024, with a new higher floor of $2,000. “We also now expect Gold to print bull market gains in 2024 that is emblematic of past rate cutting cycles; that equates to $2475/oz (and almost $2600/oz if one accounts for the annual cost of carry,” they wrote.

Among the risks to their updated bullish forecasts, MKS Pamp notes that now everyone is bullish. “Banks are revising up forecasts and consensus for Gold has shifted in one direction,” they said, but offered the caveat that market positioning is not yet reflecting this. “Western investor positioning still remains underweight on a long-term historical Gold basis, vs the liquidity & holdings in other asset classes and commodities remain undersubscribed as an asset class.”

Other threats include “large Gold holders (including Central Banks) monetizing Gold if 1) they are forced to (eg: the financing of hot & cold wars), 2) Gold loses appeal as a geopolitical or inflation hedge and/or 3) Gold comes under direct sanction and policy risk,” as well as the potential for “strong secondary physical sales from retail coin & bar holders, globally, which has not been ignited.”

Turning to silver, the analysts wrote that a sweet spot is beginning to emerge, but investor demand must increase to get it there.

“Silver continues to have an attractive micro/fundamental story heading into a collective Central Bank rate cutting cycle (as is the case with Copper and to a lesser degree Platinum),” they said. “The market understands the structural supply challenges in these cyclical transition metals, but the demand story isn’t materializing the way bulls think it should, including investment demand which remains static.”

The analysts acknowledged that investors don’t have the patience to eat monthly losses as they wait for moves in a high interest rate environment, which helps to explain why silver and the PGMs are so under owned, but supply constraints will still push prices higher.

“Silver moved into a structural deficit in 2021 driven largely by energy-related industry demand (PV, auto etc) and has posted deficits averaging ~250mn oz the past 3 years including 2024,” they wrote. “While above ground stocks have managed to fulfill those annual deficits, known inventories – the free float – is back down near cyclical lows. The case for a ‘gradually then suddenly’ setup is developing and thus we marginally hike our already quite bullish forecast ($25/oz) to $25.50 and expect the Gold/Silver ratio to trade toward the lower end (~86) of its YTD range.”

Kitco Media

Ernest Hoffman

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Gold price sees another 5 rally this week as geopolitical uncertainty drives the market to touch 2350

Gold price sees another 5% rally this week as geopolitical uncertainty drives the market to touch $2350

he gold market continues its unstoppable run to record highs as it touches an all-time high of $2,350 an ounce ahead of the weekend.

Gold’s latest rally comes after the U.S. economy created 303,000 jobs in March, significantly beating expectations. At the same time, unemployment dropped to 3.8%. Despite the robust job growth, wages were relatively muted, rising 0.3%, in line with expectations.

Economists described the latest nonfarm payrolls data as a “blockbuster report,” which supports higher bond yields and relative strength of the U.S. dollar. Bond yields have risen as the market continues to shift their expectations regarding the start of the Federal Reserve’s easing cycle.

This past week, members of the Federal Open Market Committee have been fairly evasive on the topic of interest rate cuts. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets see a 54% chance of a rate cut in June. Last week, markets were pricing in a more than 60% chance of easing.

Analysts note this should be a hostile environment for gold; however, June gold futures last traded at $2,345.50 an ounce, up 1.60% on the day. The precious metal is up nearly 5% from last Friday.

Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, said that he suspects gold is attracting some safe-haven flows as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East heat up because of Israel’s war with Hamas in Gaza.

This week, Commander of Iran's Revolutionary Guard, Gen. Hossein Salami, vowed retaliation after an airstrike on an Iranian diplomatic compound in Syria killed seven members of the military group, including two generals.

In a social media post, Marin Katusa, founder of Katusa Research, gold’s safe-haven bid.

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Experts even more bullish on gold than retail

Experts even more bullish on gold than retail

Kitco NEWS has a diverse team of journalists reporting on the economy, stock markets, commodities, cryptocurrencies, mining and metals with accuracy and objectivity. Our goal is to help people make informed market decisions through in-depth reporting, daily market roundups, interviews with prominent industry figures, comprehensive coverage (often exclusive) of important industry events and analyses of market-affecting developments.

As has been the case for much of the new year, this week once again witnessed another steady climb in gold prices. Following last week’s spike to new all-time highs around $2,220 per ounce ahead of the Easter long weekend, the yellow metal shot to $2,265 just before the clock struck midnight on Sunday, and even a steady stream of hawkish Fed speakers couldn’t hold it back, as it set new successive highs as the week wore on.

Friday morning’s nonfarm payrolls report provided the exclamation mark to conclude a dramatic narrative for the precious metal, as even a blowout jobs report, which could serve to delay rate cuts even further than the Fed had threatened, was no match for gold’s upward momentum.

Buoyed by the escalation prospect of multiple global conflicts, spot gold saw its strongest move of the week, settling above $2,330 per ounce for the first time in history.

The latest Kitco News Weekly Gold Survey showed Wall Street sentiment outstripping even the unsinkable optimism of Main Street traders next week as fears of a pullback from the latest new highs were drowned out by still greater fears of geopolitical turmoil.

Adam Button, head of currency strategy at Forexlive.com, said whatever qualms traders may have about gold at these levels, resistance is futile. “Gold is stretched but the trend is impossible to fight right now,” he said. “Asia is buying almost every day.”

Darin Newsom, Senior Market Analyst at Barchart.com, said he’ll also be going with the flow. “It’s a tough call again this week, but for now I’ll stick with Newton’s First Law of Motion applied to markets: A trending market will stay in that trend until acted upon by an outside force, with that outside force usually investment money,” Newsom said. “For now, money seems to be flowing into gold, for whatever reason.”

“Could I make a technical argument the market could go lower next week? Yes, but gold is in a phase at this time where charts don’t mean anything,” he added. “It’s all fundamentals, and for now, central banks around the world continue to buy.”

Adrian Day, President of Adrian Day Asset Management, said the demand now extends beyond sovereign purchases and Asian investors, and he sees no signs of it slowing just yet.

“Notwithstanding Western investors generally not participating in the gold market – as evidenced by ETF outflows, low coins sales – there are clearly some big fish in the market buying and likely not only central banks,” he said. “Wealthy individuals and families, as well as savvy investors, are accumulating in response to awareness of the growing fragility in the global financial, economic, and geopolitical system.”

“As the financial markets stumble, more investors will turn to gold.”

SIA Wealth Management Chief Market Strategist Colin Cieszynski expects further volatility from gold prices, which is why he’s adopted a wait-and-see approach.

“I'm going to stay neutral,” Cieszynski said. “To me, gold still looks like it's had a big run and Treasury yields are still climbing, and that's going to push up the dollar. But on the other hand, gold also has these big tailwinds behind it, and that's why I went neutral for next week.”

He also pointed to next week’s U.S. consumer price report as something that could go either way. “Is it soon enough that we're going to start seeing the higher oil prices work their way in, or is that another month down the road? I'm, not sure,” he said. “There's a bunch of factors that say gold should go higher. There's a bunch of factors that say gold could go down a little bit. It's going to probably be a tug-of-war kind of week, is what I'm expecting.”

“My feeling of neutrality for gold is less about gold itself and it's more about everything going on around it,” he added. “So even though gold itself is looking good, I think gold could have some pretty big moves in both directions depending on what happens around it. I'm neutral not because I think it's going nowhere, but more because I'm not convinced on which way it's going to end up at the end of the week.”

“If you go bullish, you could look smart for half the week,” Cieszynski concluded. “If you go bearish, you could look smart for half the week.”

This week, 12 Wall Street analysts participated in the Kitco News Gold Survey, and their responses showed that bullish sentiment has fully captured the institutional imagination. Nine experts, or 75%, expected to see gold prices climb even higher next week, while only one analyst, representing a paltry 8%, predicted a price decline. The remaining two experts, or 17%, said headwinds and tailwinds were too close to call next week.

Meanwhile, 240 votes were cast in Kitco’s online poll, with 75% of Main Street investors anticipating further gains or sideways trading. 159 retail traders, representing 65%, looked for gold to rise next week. Another 41, or 17%, predicted it would be lower, while 40 respondents, or 17%, said they were neutral on gold’s near-term prospects.

Next week is a relatively thin one as far as economic data is concerned, though military and political conflict should provide plenty of grist for gold’s mill. Highlights include Wednesday’s U.S. CPI report for March, followed by PPI and weekly jobless claims on Thursday, and Friday’s preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey.

Markets will also be watching the Bank of Canada’s and the European Central Bank’s monetary policy decisions on Wednesday and Thursday respectively, as there’s always a chance they may preempt the Fed with a rate cut.

Marc Chandler, Managing Director at Bannockburn Global Forex, doesn’t see the coming week’s consumer data slowing gold.

“Rising rates and US dollar have not dented gold’s surge,” Chandler said. “Next week’s US CPI should be firm but the demand for gold does not seem related to US inflation. Rather there appears to be a strong retail bid from Asia, notably Chinese investors and a few other countries with capital controls and/or shaky financial systems.”

Chandler said that trend followers and momentum traders also seem to be participating. “The price action reflects buying on pullbacks and breakouts, hallmarks of a bull market,” he added. “As the yellow metal is in uncharted waters, tough to talk about resistance. Maybe potential toward $2350. Support looks like $2225-50.”

Daniel Pavilonis, Senior Commodities Broker at RJO Futures, was parsing the gold rally even as it set new highs on Friday.

“I think some of the buying is the anticipation of rate cuts, even though we had a strong jobs report,” Pavilonis said. “I think the market is still expecting mild rate cuts going into elections or right around elections at a time when we're still seeing sticky inflation.”

He said the other driver of this move is what's going on with Israel and Iran, and the possibility of that conflict escalating further.

“Iran being backed, or being partnered up with, Russia, China, India. Russia has ships in the Black Sea, and oil prices spiking could cause further inflation at the same time when the Fed, if they don't cut rates, at the very least I think that they would just pause and let inflation run.”

Pavilonis said that the political realities of the United States during an election year are beginning to weigh heavily on markets.

“These guys, Democrat or Republican, want to keep their jobs,” he said. “I think that's part of it. It's the culmination of statistics, this being a strong year under these circumstances, the probability of rate cuts, or at the very least pausing if we do see escalation geopolitically, which would raise energy prices substantially… it's all bullish for gold.”

Zooming in on the near term, Pavilonis said he believes this week’s gold rally, and the moves on Thursday and Friday in particular, is largely on the back of geopolitics. “Iran basically said that they're going to come back and retaliate against Israel,” he said. “Is that going to be within Israel, or is that going to be just Israeli targets around Israel? But that is the expectation, and I think that would be bullish for gold.”

He also believes that Friday’s strong nonfarm payrolls report hasn't ruled out rate cuts either. “That's still on the table,” he said. “I don't think the Fed wants to linguistically condition the market for rate cuts, and then it doesn't happen.”

Pavilonis said that a big part of this calculation is the fact that there's no selling coming into the market despite this week’s steady stream of hawkish comments from multiple Fed speakers. “Now you're adding some geopolitical issues going on with the Middle East,” he said. “And with Ukraine, Blinken coming out and saying that Ukraine's going to join NATO, this thing has a possibility of escalating.”

“I think under these circumstances, that's very bullish for gold in the near term.”

Pavilonis added that if nothing kinetic happens over the weekend, he thinks commodities could see a pullback early in the week. “Energy prices would sell off if there's nothing, and then you might see gold take a little bit of a breather,” he said. “I think gold may come back to a nice round number like $2,000.”

And Kitco Senior Analyst Jim Wyckoff still sees potential gains for gold prices next week. “Steady-higher, as technicals remain bullish,” he said.

Spot gold last traded at $2,325.18 per ounce at the time of writing, up 1.48% on the day and 4.09% on the week.

Kitco Media

Ernest Hoffman

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Analyst Highlights Encouraging Metric for Solana Bulls Amid Calls For New SOL All-Time High Price

Analyst Highlights Encouraging Metric for Solana Bulls Amid Calls For New SOL All-Time High Price

By Newton Gitonga – April 5, 2024

Following a strong quarter, Solana (SOL) has been the subject of intense scrutiny and analysis by traders and analysts alike, even as the cryptocurrency tries to recapture its November 2021 all-time highs.

This week, Solana’s price has pulled back slightly after hitting a high of $210, prompting questions about its future trajectory. Meanwhile, analysts have been quick to chime in on the situation, with popular chartist Decentrader highlighting a potentially encouraging metric for Solana bulls.

On Wednesday, the pundit noted that Solana’s funding rates have dropped significantly, which could be interpreted as a positive sign for bullish investors.

“Decision time here for Solana. Price has pulled back to Sniper support at $183. If current levels do not hold the major support area is sub-$150. After funding rates had climbed too high, they have now dropped after a lot of leverage traders got liquidated on the down move,” He tweeted, adding, “This is one potentially encouraging metric for the bulls.”

Adding to the analysis, trader X-Istan pointed out key resistance and support levels for Solana. While facing resistance at around $205, he noted that Solana could find support at $180, with a bounce potentially signalling bullish momentum towards $267. However, he warned that a break below $180 might lead to a drop to $147, indicating a potential bearish scenario.

Despite these fluctuations, Solana has maintained a bullish trend overall. Its resilience in the face of market volatility suggests that the bulls are still in control, pushing steadily to reclaim the monthly high of $210.

However, challenges lie ahead for Solana, particularly in low buying volume and lacklustre buying activity. Nonetheless, the absence of bearish signals indicates that any setbacks in the market are likely to be temporary, with the bulls expected to prevail in the long run.

Looking back at Solana’s performance since late 2022, the cryptocurrency has experienced remarkable growth, with its price increasing by more than 25x. From a technical standpoint, Solana appears to be just getting started, with promising prospects for further appreciation in value.

While Solana faces short-term challenges, its long-term prospects remain optimistic. At press time, SOL was trading at $173, reflecting a 6.90% drop over the past 24 hours, as per CoinMarketCap data.

DISCLAIMER The views expressed in the article are wholly those of the author and do not represent those of, nor should they be attributed to, ZyCrypto. This article is not meant to give financial advice. Please carry out your own research before investing in any of the various cryptocurrencies available.

The original article written by Newton Gitonga and posted on ZyCrypto.com.

Article reposted on Markethive by Jeffrey Sloe

** Loans, secure funding for business projects in the USA and around the world. Learn more about USA & International Financing at Commercial Funding International. **

Tim Moseley

Gold prices remain above 2300 as investors bet on Fed rate cut

Gold prices remain above $2,300 as investors bet on Fed rate cut

After hitting a new all-time record high of $2325.30 gold futures basis the most active June contract has experienced a slight price decline today. As of 5:05 PM EDT the June contract is currently fixed at $2308.50, down $6.50, or -0.28%.

Gold futures pricing was supported today as investors continued to bet on interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve later this year. The precious metal's safe-haven appeal also received a boost amid growing geopolitical tensions.

Despite the modest pullback, expectations of the Fed lowering interest rates in the coming months remained elevated. In a speech at the Stanford Graduate School of Business, Fed Chair Jerome Powell confirmed the central bank's resolve to bring inflation back down to the 2% target, but emphasized that the overall economic landscape is still positive.

Powell highlighted the economy's robust growth, resilient labor market, and gradually moderating inflation, saying, "We do not expect that it will be appropriate to lower our policy rate until we have greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably down toward 2%. Given the strength of the economy and progress on inflation so far, we have time to let the incoming data guide our decisions on policy."

While the Fed chair and other officials stressed the need for more data before cutting rates, a move financial markets widely expect in June, investors remained convinced that rate reductions are on the horizon. Futures markets are currently pricing in around a 60% chance of a rate cut at the Fed's June meeting, with expectations for a total of 75 basis points of cuts by the end of the year.

The case for a more accommodative Fed policy stance was further bolstered by recent economic data, including an unexpected surge in U.S. jobless claims and slower services industry growth. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank's (ECB) latest meeting minutes showed officials saw a stronger case for beginning their rate-cutting cycle.

In addition to the rate-cut bets, gold prices found support from safe-haven demand amid heightened geopolitical risks. Strong central bank buying, particularly from emerging market economies, also contributed to the precious metal's appeal.

Looking ahead, all eyes will be on the U.S. jobs report for March, scheduled for release on Friday, April 5. Economists predict the economy added 200,000 jobs last month, with the unemployment rate dropping to 3.8% and hourly earnings rising 0.3%. A softer-than-expected report could further fuel expectations of an imminent Fed pivot

Wishing you as always good trading,

Kitco Media

Gary Wagner

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Best 3 AI Cryptos to Keep an Eye on in 2024

Best 3 AI Cryptos to Keep an Eye on in 2024

By Marco Tulio – April 4, 2024

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is revolutionizing numerous industries, and the world of cryptocurrencies is no exception. As we progress into 2024, some AI-driven crypto assets are gaining tremendous momentum alongside Bitcoin, attracting the attention of major institutions globally.

In this article, we’ll analyze three cutting-edge cryptocurrencies in the field of AI worth gazing at for 2024: Render (RNDR), Fetch.ai (FET), and Bittensor (TAO).

Render (RNDR)

The first one is RNDR, the native token of Render Network. This platform is revolutionizing how 3D multimedia content is created, focusing on processing and rendering high-definition 3D visual effects for all types of users built on the Ethereum blockchain.

Render Network uses a peer-to-peer network to allow anyone with unused GPU capacity to rent it out to creators needing processing power to render complex graphics, animations, and 3D environments.

What sets Render apart from other solutions is its decentralized blockchain-based approach. This ensures fair, reliable fees and a truly open market for rendering power. Thus, creators no longer rely on expensive centralized rendering farms for their projects.

The RNDR token is used to compensate GPU power providers and as a form of payment for creators accessing those resources. Regarding its price projection, RNDR has shown impressive growth, reaching its all-time high of $13.53 on March 17th.

Although the token currently trades at $9.36, 30.9% below its ATH, according to CoinGecko, many analysts see significant upside potential as demand for 3D content increases exponentially with the rise of virtual worlds, augmented reality, and gaming.

Fetch.ai (FET)

Fetch.ai’s platform leads the way in combining artificial intelligence with blockchain technology. Its goal is to create a decentralized global infrastructure for machines to learn, communicate, and negotiate with each other reliably and transparently.

Fetch enables decentralized execution of various types of AI, such as machine learning, reinforcement learning, robotics, and the Internet of Things. It facilitates secure AI data exchange through automated smart contracts and autonomous learning algorithms.

The native FET token powers the entire platform’s economy, enabling access to and exchange of AI services within its decentralized network. Thus, FET token holders have a voice and vote in the platform’s governance.

After recently announcing its high-profile merger with SingularityNET (SNET) and Ocean Protocol to create the world’s largest decentralized AI ecosystem, FET’s price reached an all-time high of $3.48 less than a week ago. If the merger is approved, Fetch.AI would only undergo a rebranding while maintaining the same token supply.

Many experts predict that this is just the beginning, as Fetch.ai positions itself as a key platform for the next wave of decentralized AI-based applications and services, thus expecting FET’s demand and price to increase as real-world use cases adoption grows.

At the time of writing, FET is trading at $2.86 after a 2.86% upsurge in the last 24 hours, according to CoinMarketCap.

Bittensor (TAO)

Last but not least, in our top 3, we have TAO, the native coin of Bittensor. This innovative decentralized cryptocurrency marketplace lets users exchange machine learning algorithms and AI datasets privately and securely.

It’s essentially an “App Store” for artificial intelligence, where developers can publish and exchange their machine learning models.

With a current market capitalization of over $3.9 billion, TAO is one of the largest tokens in the AI cryptocurrency space. Its growth has been largely driven by its reward distribution framework, which grants proportional stakes in the network to users who contribute the most value.

At the time of writing, TAO is trading at $609 after a 4.3% increase in the last few hours, according to CoinGecko.

As AI and virtual reality become more ubiquitous and significant in everyday life, projects like Bittensor, FET, and Render will be pivotal, so keeping a close watch on them wouldn’t hurt.

As always, do your research before delving into any project or cryptocurrency of your interest.

DISCLAIMER

The views expressed in the article are wholly those of the author and do not represent those of, nor should they be attributed to, ZyCrypto. This article is not meant to give financial advice. Please carry out your own research before investing in any of the various cryptocurrencies available.

The original article written by Marco Tulio and posted on Zycrypto.com.

Article reposted on Markethive by Jeffrey Sloe

** Loans, secure funding for business projects in the USA and around the world. Learn more about USA & International Financing at Commercial Funding International. **

Tim Moseley

Your Ultimate Free Website Traffic Solution

markethive.com


GettHIT.com: Your Ultimate Free Website Traffic Solution

In the vast digital landscape, having a website is like owning a piece of virtual real estate. But what good is a property if no one visits it? That’s where GettHIT.com steps in—a premium web traffic exchange service that’s completely free! Let’s dive into the world of GettHIT and explore how it can revolutionize your online presence.

What Is GettHIT.com?

GettHIT.com is a next-generation, best-in-class autosurf user visitor platform for websites. But what does that mean? Let’s break it down:

  1. Autosurf: Users like you generate automated traffic by visiting other websites. In return, your site receives real human visitors. It’s a win-win!

  2. Free Traffic: GettHIT provides real-time free traffic for blogs, business websites, online stores, and videos. Yes, you read that right—free!

  3. Boost Your Metrics: Improve your website metrics without spending a dime. GettHIT helps you increase visibility and reach a wider audience.

Key Features

1. Bounce Rate Reduction

  • High bounce rates hurt your site’s credibility. GettHIT offers a free reduction in bounce rate. Keep visitors engaged and encourage them to explore further.

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  • Our platform ensures that your website receives traffic from popular search engines. Boost your SEO efforts without spending a penny.

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  • GettHIT’s autowebsurf platform clicks through your site on famous social media channels. Imagine the exposure your content can get!

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  • We drive traffic from portable devices—mobiles and tablets. Reach users wherever they are, all for free.

Why Do You Need a Web Traffic Booster?

  1. Website Reach: An increase in traffic expands your website’s reach. More eyes on your content mean more potential customers or readers.

  2. SEO Benefits: Higher traffic positively impacts your site’s ranking in search results. Google loves active websites!

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How It Works

  1. Add Your Website: Provide relevant details about your site. GettHIT members will visit your site by auto-surfing.

  2. Earn Credits: As you surf other sites, you earn credits. These credits can be exchanged for targeted visitors to your own site.

  3. Sit Back and Watch: Your campaigns run on auto-pilot. Focus on your business while GettHIT drives hits and increases web traffic.

Real Human Visitors

  • GettHIT.com ensures that the traffic you receive is from real users. No bots, no fake views—just genuine visitors.

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  • GettHIT.com boasts a simple, secure, and feature-rich interface. You’re in control of your web traffic experience.

24/7 Expert Support

  • Need assistance? Our help desk team is available 24/7 via email to resolve any issues promptly.

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GettHIT is your one-stop solution for increasing website traffic. Say goodbye to expensive marketing campaigns and hello to organic, quality hits. Sign up now, get 1000 free hits, and watch your site thrive!

Remember, it’s not just about traffic; it’s about making an impact in the digital realm. GettHIT.com—where visibility meets opportunity.


For more information, visit GettHIT.com.


Note: The information provided in this article is based on data available as of the publication date. 🚀🌐

 

Tim Moseley

Gold Futures Breach and Close Above 2300 for the First Time

Gold Futures Breach and Close Above $2300 for the First Time

In a historic move, gold futures surged past the $2300 mark for the first time in history. As of 4:30 PM EDT, gold futures basis the most active June contract is currently at a record high of $2318.90. The June contract opened at $2301.70 and traded to an intraday high of $2319.70. The precious metal's rally showed no signs of slowing down, with the June 2024 contract currently fixed at $2319.10 after factoring in today’s gain of $37.30, or 1.63%, marking the seventh consecutive trading day of gains.

This remarkable surge has been fueled by a combination of factors, chief among them being the growing expectations that central banks, including the Federal Reserve, are preparing to lower interest rates as inflation cools down. Chairman Jerome Powell, in his address to the Stanford Business, Government, and Society Forum, hinted at the possibility of rate cuts, stating that a lower interest rate would likely be appropriate "at some point this year" if the economy develops as expected. This statement heightened expectations for a Fed rate cut in June.

Traders and investors alike are closely watching the Federal Reserve's moves, with the CME's FedWatch tool indicating a 63% probability of the central bank initiating its first rate cut in June. This potential shift in monetary policy has further fueled gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset and an inflation hedge.

The weakening U.S. dollar has also played a significant role in gold's ascent. The dollar index dipped 0.48% to 104.324.

Technical analysis also suggests that gold's rally may continue. A bullish pattern known as a “bull flag” was identified in mid-March, pointing to a potential target of $2327 for this current leg of the rally. The projection is based on measuring the price differential from the beginning to the end of the “pole”. The pole began on Thursday, February 29 when gold futures were fixed at $2058.20, and concluded on or about March 11 at $2215, for a price increase of $157. We then calculated from the bottom of the “flag” which occurred at $2170 on March 17, and we added $157 to get our target, the same distance as the “pole”.

Market participants and investors seek refuge amid economic uncertainties and central banks grapple with inflation, gold's status as a reliable store of value has once again been solidified. With its historic breach of the $2300 barrier, if you were not paying attention to gold before you probably are now.

Wishing you as always good trading,

Kitco Media

Gary Wagner

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

The Artist that came out of the Winter