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The BIS Vision: The Future Monetary System

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The BIS Vision: The Future Monetary System

There are a few different visions for how the financial world should evolve. Most of us dream of a future where we can be independent and free. On the contrary, some institutions are vehemently opposed to such liberty. The 'powers that be' will never allow us to be free, as eliminating their control would mean cutting their puppet strings.

Central banks are among the most prominent financial puppeteers in the world. The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) is like a member’s club for the central banks, and for the last two years, the BIS has been attacking all forms of cryptocurrency, trying to fault the decentralized system. 

However, the cronies at the BIS have been some of the greatest advocates for central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). They have been planning their vision of a future that would radically alter the financial system, verging on the dystopian. Recently, they released their latest report on this vision for the future monetary system. 

There is a quote that seems to have become the narrative of the crypto industry;

‘First, they ignore you, 
then they laugh at you, 
then they fight you, 
and then you win.’ 

It could be that crypto has entered the 3rd phase of the quote and is blatantly obvious in the rhetoric of the anti-crypto institutions, like the BIS, detailed in its report of a dystopian vision of the future of finance. It also documents a flawed and somewhat naive view of the crypto industry.  

What is the BIS? 

The Bank for International Settlements or BIS is the self-described bank for central banks. The BIS is owned by the 63 central banks that make up its membership and is based in Basel, Switzerland. The BIS's job is to help Central banks coordinate their monetary policies. An informational video by the BIS revealed that all 63 Central Bankers recently met in Basel to discuss monetary policy. A sporadic occurrence that only happens during times of Crisis.

The BIS has been working closely with central banks to develop their CBDCs, and CBDCs will make it possible for them to have total control over the economies of their respective countries by determining how and when money can be spent. It’s important to note that CBDCs are being built from the ground up to maximize financial control. 

In contrast, most cryptocurrencies were created from the ground up to maximize financial freedom and, in some cases, financial privacy. It’s no surprise that the BIS is not a fan of cryptocurrency whatsoever and that the report summary in this article can be summarized in one sentence. According to the BIS, everything that cryptocurrency can do, CBDCs can do better. 


Image source: Decrypt

The report was formulated by Hyun Song Shin, the economic advisor and head of research. Hyun is as anti-crypto as they come and attended a media briefing about cryptocurrency for the BIS in 2018. He talked about why cryptocurrencies will never replace fiat currencies because they can't scale and don't guarantee transaction finality; the ‘laugh at you’ part of the quote mentioned above. 

He did another media briefing about cryptocurrency in early June 2022, specifically about this report. He talked about why CBDCs are better than cryptocurrencies, a considerable shift in tone from four years ago, and the ‘fight you’ part of the quote above. At the media briefing, Shin was asked some critical questions about CBDCs by reporters, to which he had no clear answer.  

One reporter asked why are CBDCs necessary when we have alternatives? A second asked about people's privacy concerns about CBDCs, given that the BIS had specified that privacy will not be possible with CBDCs and that the central bank will keep all user data. 

A third reporter asked whether CBDCs would see any adoption given their concerning characteristics. A fourth reporter asked whether someone would be blocked from buying the likes of alcohol and tobacco or entirely blocked if they speak out against their government. 

Even though he couldn’t answer the reporters’ questions, he clarified and applauded that CBDCs problematic programmability could theoretically be applied to any payment system, providing a government successfully rolls out a digital ID. 

BIS REPORT: The Future Monetary System

The BIS report begins with a brief introduction that describes the financial system as it functions today. In short, it states central banks issue the money and creates trust in it, whereas commercial banks make it possible for people to use that money to buy, sell and borrow. 

If the idea that it's the central bank that creates the trust in money wasn't bad enough, the authors claim that “private sector innovation benefits society, precisely because it is built on the strong foundations of the Central Bank.” 

To add insult to injury, the following sentence reads, “the monetary system with the central bank at its center has served society well.” This statement is highly debatable given that central bank money printing has made life even more unaffordable for the average person while enriching the 1%.  

After briefly describing cryptocurrencies, the authors turned to Terra’s recent collapse as evidence that crypto can't beat the central banks. They claimed that the crypto industry constantly needs a “nominal anchor” such as fiat-denominated stablecoins. 

They believe the only solution to this crypto dilemma is to switch everything over to permissioned blockchains run by central banks with CBDCs and so-called fast payment systems that commercial banks will leverage the same way they leverage the central banks today.

What Do We Want From A Monetary System?

The second part of the BIS report is titled, “What do we want from a monetary system?” It's important to remember that this report is intended to be read by powerful individuals and institutions, not the average person. So the authors aren't really asking what we want; they’re asking their wealthy and influential cronies.

Below is a table the authors provided that identifies eight monetary system goals. These are safety and stability, accountability, efficiency, inclusion, control over data, integrity, adaptability, and openness. It would seem that all eight of these can be rolled into one, and that's total control. 

These boxes explain how well these eight “wants” are satisfied by the current financial system, cryptocurrency, and the BIS’s dystopian vision of the future of finance. Given that the BIS is the author and creator of this table, it’s no surprise that crypto fails on almost all metrics, whereas the BIS’s future system succeeds on all eight. 


Image source: bis.org

This ties into the third part of the BIS report, which relates to cryptocurrency problems. Not surprisingly, the authors have no shortage of crypto criticisms, and they start with all the volatility in the crypto market and the fact that most cryptos are down more than 90% from their all-time highs. 

Of course, the authors don't explain the reason why crypto is so volatile and that its implicit goal is to replace the financial system, which is a massive undertaking. The authors also don't acknowledge that the volatility of most major cryptocurrencies has been on the decline over the years.

The authors seem to imply that crypto can't replace central banks because their blockchains are fragmented. Meaning they can't interoperate, which just isn't the case. Most crypto holders know the industry will be multi-chain, and interoperability innovation has been explosive. 

They highlight that new cryptocurrencies are pretty centralized, and many existing cryptocurrencies have started to centralize to increase their speed and competitiveness. The authors then turn to decentralized finance. Notably, there’s growing awareness that the central banks and commercial banks alike see Defi as the biggest threat because it has the potential to play both of their roles. 

Because centralized exchanges somehow fall under the umbrella of Defi, the authors list a few critiques of them, too, including the lack of transparency around crypto holdings, a lack of oversight compared to regular exchanges, and the fact that they let you withdraw your crypto.

The Financial Action Task Force (FATF), whose so-called recommendations aim to make self-custody next to impossible by labeling anyone who tries to hold their own crypto as high risk because they believe only the banks are allowed to preserve your assets, comes to mind. 

Regarding the “structural limitations of crypto,” the authors argue that cryptocurrencies are incentivized to keep their fees high because it's the only way they can adequately compensate miners and validators. This is an interesting albeit flawed argument. 

This is an argument that Hyun Song Shin made in his first media briefing about cryptocurrency in 2018. He and the authors of this report fail to realize that economic incentives and self-interest are why anyone does anything at all, ultimately.

While it's true that there are risks associated with securing a cryptocurrency blockchain, there are even more considerable risks related to giving control of the financial system to a small group of central bankers. And crypto’s inherent value is increasing as people start to realize this. 

In the graph below, the results of a crypto study conducted by the BIS found that “a rise in the price of Bitcoin is associated with a significant increase in new users, i.e., the entry of new investors, with a correlation coefficient of more than 0.9. It analyzes the age and gender of users, exogenous shocks, and risk factors, which could convince the reader that crypto is dangerous.    

The authors proclaim that “regulatory action is needed to address the immediate risks in the crypto monetary system and to support public policy goals.”  These regulations the authors want to see include;

  • Regulators to crack down on stablecoins, especially decentralized stablecoins, which is no coincidence, given that stablecoins compete directly with all kinds of fiat currencies as per the BIS’s own admissions. 
  • Cryptocurrency exchanges that hide transacting parties' identities and fail to follow basic know your customer (KYC) and other FATF requirements should be fined or shut down.
  • Regulators should consider restricting retail access to certain altcoins, banning Defi, and even crack down on crypto oracles like Chainlink for daring to provide data to decentralized applications without approval from the government.
  • Regulators should ensure that cryptocurrency doesn't become too big as it could compromise the integrity of the fiat financial system. To that end, the authors advised that regulators focus on the centralized entities in cryptocurrency, be they exchanges, custodians, or otherwise. 

Because crypto is global, the authors even call on governments to create a new international regulatory authority and present the BIS as the ideal institution to play this role. 

The authors also revealed that the BIS is developing a “cryptocurrency and defi analysis platform” that combines on-chain and off-chain data to produce vetted information on market capitalization, economic activity, and international flows. They concluded the crypto section of the report with; 

“Overall, the crypto sector provides a glimpse of promising technological possibilities, but it cannot fulfill all the high-level goals of a digital monetary system. Central Bankers can provide such foundations, and they are working actively to shape the future of the monetary system.” 

 

BIS Vision: Four Roles Of Central Banks

The report explains the central banks' four specific roles in the BIS's eyes. These are;

  1. Issue Money
  2. Provide Transaction Liquidity
  3. Ensure Liquidity (also known as money printing)
  4. Assist In Regulations

According to the BIS, the future of finance takes the four roles of the central bank to the next level by introducing Wholesale and Retail CBDCs. Select individuals and institutions will use the wholesale CBDCs, whereas the average person will use retail CBDCs. 

Essentially, we will have two systems, and the BIS is OK with that because, as far as it is concerned, “central banks are mandated to serve the public interest” and are totally not influenced by politics or influential individuals and institutions in the private sector. 


Image Source: Technode.global

The authors then outline the different components of their vision of the future of finance and highlight concepts like programmability, composability, tokenization, interoperability, instant payments, open platforms, and inclusive designs. Wait a minute… It sounds like they’re describing the future of cryptocurrency! 

The image below displays the metaphor they use to explain their vision of the future of finance. They paint a picture of trees with central banks as the trunk, showing how all the different central banks will lock branches, calling it the Forest of the Global system. 

It seems a bit ironic as the report simultaneously claims that a fragmented financial system of this kind would never work. The authors also commented that putting central banks at the center of the financial equation is a “prerequisite for private innovation that serves the public interest,” which seems to imply that private innovation is incapable of serving the public interest in the absence of central banks.

Wholesale CBDCs

Regarding wholesale CBDCs, the authors note that they can be used to govern the inner workings of the financial system and promise their audience, which is again primarily powerful individuals and institutions, that their privacy will be protected, thanks to zero-knowledge proof—also used in the cryptocurrency industry. 

The authors also described how a wholesale CBDC would be used to settle a digital currency transaction that’s not done in a retail CBDC. They gave someone buying a house with privately issued eMoney with the deed automatically transferred as an example. They suggested that “the same system could also allow for digital representations of stocks and bonds.” 

In other words, they would be tokenizing all real-world assets on their permission blockchains. Some would argue that if this happens, the central bank and, by extension, the government would own your assets. They would be able to revoke your ownership of anything and everything. And if you don't have physical evidence that it was once yours, you will have no way of proving to anyone that it ever was. 

People in crypto communities that understand crypto know that buying and holding cryptocurrency in your own wallet is the way to circumvent this, as no one can take it away from you.  

Retail CBDCs

There’s no need to worry just yet because the next section of the BIS report talks about the real problem for us; the retail CBDC. It points out the mass adoption of Brazil's fast payment system as proof that the average person will voluntarily adopt a retail CBDC, even though the BIS’s own research shows that only 4-12% of adults in developed countries would voluntarily adopt a retail CBDC.

The authors also applaud the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston's milestone of reaching 1.7 million transactions per second in its CBDC trials, noting that this is faster than payment networks like Visa and cryptocurrency blockchains. 

It seems the authors conveniently forgot about Bitcoins Lightning Network, which can process an estimated 40 million transactions per second.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

So, if you're wondering, how will the central banks convince anyone to adopt this? The authors clearly state that by allowing non-bank entities to offer CBDC wallets, they can also overcome the lack of trust in financial institutions that holds back many individuals in today's system.

In other words, central banks will use private companies that people trust to roll out their retail CBDCs. This is funny, considering the authors spent the earlier part of the report trying to convince the reader that the central banks and their financial systems are the pinnacles of trust. 

What's even funnier is that the BIS actually reported on how much people trust the financial system. The figure is only around 60% in developed countries and possibly even lower now. 

The authors then reiterate what's been said in other BIS reports about the privacy of retail CBDCs, stating that “central banks have no commercial interest in personal data and can thus credibly design systems in the public interest.” Put simply, privacy for them but not for us. They also quote that transactions would not be recorded on a public blockchain visible to all. 

If all of this wasn't bad enough, the authors discuss a global “multi CBDC platform” that the world's central banks will govern in the following subsection. And the cherry on top is that the privacy of these entities will be insured, so the public will have no idea who controls this powerful system. 

Although these statements are made in the context of a wholesale CBDC, the authors make sure that the reader knows that the same global platform could be put in place for retail CBDCs and similar types of digital currencies. 

BIS Report Conclusion

The authors conclude by briefly commenting on the progress being made on the BIS’s explicitly stated goals and list the following statistics, 

  • 90% of central banks are exploring CBDCs. 
  • Three retail CBDCs are currently live
  • 28 CBDCs in development
  • Sixty countries are working on Fast Retail Payments.

This list includes the United States Federal Reserve’s plans to roll out the “FED NOW” fast payment system in 2023. It will have many of the same qualities as a retail CBDC, especially if the US government manages to roll out a digital ID system as per Shin’s remarks in his media briefing. 

Meanwhile, France and Switzerland are working on a multi-CBDC platform, as are Singapore, Malaysia, Australia, South Africa, Hong Kong, Thailand, China, and the United Arab Emirates. 

“In sum, central banks are working together to advance domestic policy goals and to support a seamlessly integrated global monetary system with concrete benefits for their economies and end-users.” 

And because the authors still need to bash crypto and drive home the conclusion,

“Instead of serving society, crypto and defi are plagued by congestion fragmentation and high rents, in addition to the immediate concerns about the risks of losses and financial instability.” 

This statement might be the most hypocritical of the report because many central banks are testing their CBDCs using cryptocurrency blockchains. 

What Does This Mean for Crypto?

So, the big question is, what does all this mean for the crypto market? Many believe this news is insanely bullish for crypto because nobody is buying into the BIS’s “BS” except the central bankers. 

Other previous BIS reports could be considered shamelessly evil, and the average individual and institution would not adopt this technology voluntarily. The only way you could convince the average individual and, or institution to adopt this technology would be through force or a crisis, and, conveniently, there's no shortage of those these days. 

It's also fascinating how the authors hold up the central banks as the center of the universe and how they are willingly or unwillingly unable to acknowledge just how fast innovation in crypto has been. Four years ago, the BIS laughed at crypto. Now, it's starting to fight it. Does this mean that crypto will win in four years' time? 

Let's just say that it's interesting that this is around the time we would see the next crypto bull market top. This obviously doesn't mean that fiat currencies will be defeated in four years, but it could mark the tipping point where crypto adoption becomes so widespread that it genuinely can't be stopped. 

References:
Bis.org
Coinbureau

 

 

Editor and Chief Markethive: Deb Williams. (Australia) I thrive on progress and champion freedom of speech. I embrace "Change" with a passion, and my purpose in life is to enlighten people to accept and move forward with enthusiasm. Find me at my Markethive Profile Page | My Twitter Account | and my LinkedIn Profile.

 

 

 

 

 

This information is provided for informational purposes only. Nothing herein shall be construed as financial, legal, or tax advice.

Also published @ BeforeIt’sNews.com 

 

Tim Moseley

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Will gold survive another 75 basis point hike

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Will gold survive another 75 basis point hike

The gold market is ending a five-week losing streak and while sentiment appears to be shifting, some analysts say that the precious metal still faces a challenging environment next week.

August gold futures are looking to end the week with a more than 1% gain, last trading at $1,721.40 an ounce.

All eyes will be on the Federal Reserve next week as markets expect the U.S. central bank to raise interest rates by another 75 basis points. Some currency analysts have said that while the U.S. dollar has fallen from its recent 20-year highs, the Federal Reserve's aggressive stance will continue to support the greenback.

"Amid a backdrop of a hawkish Fed and slowing global growth, we think the dollar will resume its broad-based strength before long," said economists at Capital Economics in a report Friday.

Marc Chandler, managing director at Bannockburn Global Forex, said that while gold prices have room to move higher next week, the central bank's decision could limit gains.

"Not only will the Fed most likely hike by 75 basis points, but it will also signal it is not done with the adjustment. I imagine gold will struggle near $1750 and the 20-day moving average is just above there [$1,752]," he said.

However, some analysts see the Federal Reserve's tightening cycle as having less impact on the U.S. dollar and financial markets. Currency analysts at T.D. Securities see Wednesday's decision as more neutral for the greenback as the market has priced in a lot of hawkishness.

"This meeting carries far less weight compared to the last two and the bar seems high to drastically shift the landscape in F.X. tactically. That said, we see little reason for USD resilience to be undermined, even though we see little reason for it to surge higher from this meeting," the analysts said.

Faced with growing recession concerns, some analysts have said that the Federal Reserve could be closer to the end of its tightening cycle, which will be outright bullish for gold.

PIC

Is the bottom in? Gold could see a bullish correction, bouncing off $1,700 – Moor Analytics

"Gold prices are rising as global recession fears are resetting rate hiking expectations for all the major central banks. Gold is starting to act like a safe haven as weakening economic growth will force many central banks to abandon their aggressive tightening plans," said. "Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA. "Gold might find resistance at the $1750 level, but if it doesn't, not much will get in the way until the $1800 level."

Friday, preliminary data from S&P Global Market Intelligence shows that activity in the U.S. manufacturing and service sectors dropped to their lowest level in two years. The drop in activity reflected a similar weakness in Europe.

"The market is sensing that the rate hiking cycle will end sooner because of rapidly slowing growth. Friday's U.S. services PMI was shockingly soft and means the Fed will pause around 3% and is likely to cut in 2023. When those cuts truly come into view, gold will surge on USD weakness," said Adam Button, chief currency strategist at Forexlive.com.

Thursday, markets will be anxiously waiting to see if the U.S. has fallen into a technical recession following the release of the first reading of second-quarter GDP. Many economists have dismissed first-quarter weakness as a trade imbalance; however, data from the Atlanta Federal Reserve, shows GDP contracting 1.6%, matching the decline in the first quarter. The traditional definition of a recession is two quarters of consecutive declines.

Last week Bank of America said that they see the U.S. falling into a mild recession by the end of the year.

Another European crisis

Along with the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision, analysts have also said that they will be watching the ongoing geopolitical uncertainty that is unfolding in Europe. Thursday, Italy fell into political turmoil after Prime Minister Mario Draghi resigned following the collapse of his national unity government. The nation is expected to hold snap elections in the fall.

At the same time, economists are continuing to digest the European Central Bank's announcement of its Transmission Protection Instrument. The program will be used to buy bonds from members of the eurozone to make sure all yields are in line and avoid any fragmentation risks.

John Hathaway, Portfolio Manager of Sprott Hathaway Special Situations Strategy, said in an interview with Kitco News, that Europe could be close to a sovereign debt crisis as the central bank continues to expand its balance sheet.

"Gold prices could easily push back above record highs if there is any crisis in foreign exchange markets," he said. "The next black swan out there will be connected to unruly F.X. markets."

Christopher Vecchio, senior market analyst at DailyFX.com, said he also sees a growing risk of a sovereign debt crisis in Europe. He added that in this environment, both gold and the U.S. dollar will benefit.

"As long as there are concerns about the euro, there is room for gold and the U.S. dollar to both trend higher," he said.

Data to watch

Other economic data economists will be watching next week include consumer confidence from the U.S. Conference Board, pending home sales and personal income and spending data.

Tuesday: Consumer Confidence, New Home Sales,

Wednesday: Durable Goods Orders, Pending Home Sales, FOMC decision and statement

Thursday: Advance Q2 GDP, Weekly Jobless Claims

Friday: Personal Consumption, Person Income, PCE Inflation
 

By Neils Christensen

For Kitco News

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

Tim Moseley

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A Newcomer’s Perspective On Toxic Bitcoin Maximalism

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A Newcomer’s Perspective On Toxic Bitcoin Maximalism

by Boomer 

 

Toxic Bitcoin Maximalism can serve an important purpose to ward off newcomers from scams and altcoins, but is there a time when the toxicity is too much?

This is an opinion editorial by Boomer, a long-time and active member of the financial independence/retire early (FIRE) movement and a contributor for Bitcoin Magazine.

I was recently inspired after reading Tomer Strolight’s piece, “Bitcoiners Are Not Toxic — They Have Integrity.”

For context, I read it a few days after Nic Carter’s “situation” really exploded on Twitter, and Strolight’s article really resonated with me. To be clear, I have a great deal of respect for Carter and all the good work he’s done for the Bitcoin community, especially the work he’s done to debunk the energy fear, uncertainty and doubt out there. Like him or hate him, he really is one of the most important voices Bitcoin has in the energy and mining space. Over the past few weeks, he’s been taking it on the chin from many people in the community for investments in “blockchain” and “crypto” companies through his venture capital investment firm, Castle Island Ventures. In his defense, he’s been very transparent about his investments in these projects, talking about them quite openly on his “On The Brink” podcast for at least a year. In retaliation to the criticism, Carter has written a few articles and appeared on a few podcasts where he’s punched back at the critics, calling out a vocal group in the Bitcoin space known as “toxic Bitcoin Maximalists” or derogatorily “toxic maxis.” I don’t intend to go over exactly what was said about him or what he said back, but the whole thing has gotten pretty ugly. In this humble pleb’s opinion, it feels childish. It might be a symptom of the bear market that people in Bitcoin are turning on each other, or maybe it’s the Bitcoin immune system doing its job.

Over the past week, I’ve been thinking about what the terms “toxicity” and “maximalism” mean to me. I’ve purposely held back from reading too much on the topic because I want to make sure that I get to my conclusions on my own, but I know that there have been quite a few pieces on the topic recently. Pete Rizzo, Stephan Livera, and John Vallis have all written articles on maximalism over the past few days, and I’m looking forward to reading them, but I want to get my own thoughts out there first. I have been listening to my regular rotation of podcasts and I’ve heard pretty much every Bitcoin podcaster give their two sats on Carter, maximalists and toxicity. I’d like to give a shoutout to Joey and Len from “The Canadian Bitcoiners Podcast” for discussing Carter’s recent spat with the maximalists in a way that I felt summed up the situation well. They get into it at the end of the episode.

When I first started my journey into Bitcoin, Elon Musk was in the middle of pumping dogecoin. I remember the mainstream media’s fascination with the whole thing. Musk even hosted “Saturday Night Live!” It all seemed playful to me and it made sense. Musk is this future-centric tech CEO, and I knew that Tesla had put some bitcoin on its balance sheet. Bitcoin, ethereum, dogecoin — it was all similar to me at the time, and Musk seemed to fit in perfectly. I remember listening to Bitcoin podcasts that were very critical of Musk, and it confused me. Any publicity is good publicity, isn’t it? A lot of the Bitcoiners I was following were really upset over what this guy was doing, and I just didn’t get it. I guess this was my first taste of Bitcoin’s “toxic” culture, not that I thought much about it. I wasn’t ready. I was too busy learning.

Strolight wrote his article around the same time that Musk was hosting “Saturday Night Live.” It was before I was ready to understand it all, so I’m thankful to have stumbled upon it now. It really motivated me to do a personal exploration into how I define “maximalism.”

I’m nowhere near done in this exploration and it might be something that I ponder for a long time. I’m still way too new here to have a fully formed opinion on what “toxic Bitcoin Maximalism” really is, but I know enough now to have a grasp on how Bitcoin continues to shape me and how important it is. Bitcoin means different things for everyone, so it only makes sense that Bitcoin Maximalism is just as personal. I truly believe that in Bitcoin we’ve discovered the greatest form of money ever and with this discovery, we have the potential to realign many (if not most) of the perverse incentives that plague this world. To me, this belief is Bitcoin Maximalism. Does standing up for that make someone a toxic Maximalist? I guess it depends on your perspective.

Generally speaking, Bitcoiners are leaders: type-A personalities that aren’t exactly the most politically correct group of people. What we are is a group of sovereign individuals guided by truth, transparency and a belief in a protocol that doesn’t have time for bullshit. Of course, we can come off as toxic! Does that really surprise anyone!? There is a difference between being toxic and being an asshole, though. Some of the things I’ve read on Twitter coming from defenders of Bitcoin are flat out rude, intolerant and childish. Slinging insults in the name of Bitcoin doesn’t make you a maximalist, and it doesn’t make you a hero, either. Stop that shit. It isn’t helping. But if you’re calling a spade a spade, that isn’t toxic. And if you’re offended by someone being toxic by defending something they believe in, maybe you’re the toxic one.

Bitcoin is for everyone. And while there are no gatekeepers, maybe there’s a need for protectors. Maximalism is that protection. Bitcoin Maximalists have to fight off threats, and there certainly are a lot of threats out there. Maybe maximalists need to be toxic since Bitcoin is itself, perfectly pure. Maybe Gigi is right and toxicity equals love. It's been said many times before, but I believe that the toxic maximalists serve as Bitcoin’s immune system. Like a biological organism, sometimes the immune system can go too far and kill off healthy cells from time to time, but it does so to protect the organism. A degree of toxicity is needed because if we’re not toxic enough, then shitcoins, scammers and fiat bloodsuckers will run rampant. But if we’re too toxic, we’ll waste our energy fighting among ourselves and we’ll alienate people who are looking on with curiosity. While no degree of toxicity will ever kill Bitcoin, an overly toxic environment could certainly slow down its adoption. It’s a fine line to walk, and every Bitcoiner needs to find where they fit in, but we don’t need to all agree on where that line truly is.

I know that Nic Carter has studied Bitcoin in more depth and for longer than I have. He knows that bitcoin isn’t just an investment tool or an asset class. He knows just how important the discovery was. That being said, he should be allowed to invest in as many “blockchain” companies as he chooses to, but he’s going to be held to a higher standard than some newbie, and he should expect that. He shouldn’t be surprised (or triggered) when people call him out on it. Is this a case of the immune system attacking a healthy cell? I’m not sure.

Personally, I find myself getting more and more convinced about Bitcoin by the day. I suppose my maximalism is growing and I find myself being less and less tolerant, but you still won’t find me hurling insults on Twitter. That’s not who I am, but I reserve the right to be as toxic as I need to be. And you know what? You don’t have to like it. We all have a role to play in this Bitcoin world. If I can eventually become the “not-so-toxic” Bitcoin Maximalist, that’s a role I’d be honored to serve, but to all the toxic maximalists out there, keep up the good work. Growth only comes from discomfort, and every time your toxicity makes someone uncomfortable, it helps someone else along their journey. Keep calling out bullshit as you see it.

OLSP

Tim Moseley

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The Fed will ‘abandon’ tightening causing gold to soar higher – Rich Checkan

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The Fed will 'abandon' tightening, causing gold to soar higher – Rich Checkan

Gold's performance has been tumultuous this year, with the war in Ukraine sending the metal above $2,000 per ounce. Recently, however, gold has fallen in price, and is down year-to-date by 7.8 percent.

Spot gold is currently trading at $1,725.

Speaking with Michelle Makori, Editor-in-Chief and Lead Anchor at Kitco News, Rich Checkan, President and Co-Founder at Assets Strategies International, said, "people want to know why gold isn't doing its job. I submit it is… it's falling in value, but at a much slower rate than other asset classes."

The S&P 500 is down 16.6 percent year-to-date, and Bitcoin is down by 51 percent over the same period.

Checkan said that what the Federal Reserve does next could send gold soaring to $2,400 per ounce within the next 12 months.

He spoke with Makori at the FreedomFest 2022 conference in Las Vegas.
 

A Fed pivot?

The Federal Reserve has raised its key interest rate by more than 100 bps since February to combat inflation. The June 2022 inflation figure is 9.1 percent, the highest since 1981.

Checkan said that the Fed will reverse course on its tightening once the economy starts to crumble. He added that "we've got one or two more rate hikes [left] in the U.S.," before the Fed reduces rates.

The record inflation of 2022 has been compared to the late 1970s and early 1980s' high inflation. During the latter period, Chairman of the Fed Paul Volcker raised rates to a peak of 20 percent, which historians say brought inflation down from almost 14 percent to less than 2 percent.

Today's Fed Chairman, Jerome Powell, has been compared to Volcker, but Checkan said that Powell lacks Volcker's "fortitude."

"I don't think that [Powell] is willing to risk a horrible recession," said Checkan. "The bottom line is inflation is so much further away, at this point, from interest rates than what Volcker started dealing with. I think [Powell] waited too long."

Jim Rogers: A 'positive development' in Ukraine 'in the next few weeks' could cause a big rally, before a huge crash in stocks

Gold's price

As the Fed reverses course and reduces rates, Checkan said that gold's price will soar higher.

He suggested that inflation would remain permanently higher, and since gold is an inflation hedge, this would cause gold to reach $2,400 within 12 months.

In the ensuing bull market, he said that $3,500 could be a peak for gold, before the price returns to a new support level.

"I think, realistically, we're looking at about $3,500 as the peak for gold before we pull back and then start the cycle again," said Checkan.

To find out Checkan's long-term forecast for gold's price, and his further thoughts on monetary policy, watch the above video.
 

By Kitco News

For Kitco News

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

 

Tim Moseley

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Gold rebounds as ECB gets aggressive crude pares losses USDX down

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Gold rebounds as ECB gets aggressive, crude pares losses, USDX down

Gold prices are moderately up in midday U.S. trading Thursday, on a short-covering and bargain-hunting bounce after prices hit a 15-month low overnight. Gold prices were also boosted today by crude oil paring sharp early losses, a dip in U.S. Treasury yields and a weaker U.S. dollar index. August gold futures were last up $9.60 at $1,709.60. September Comex silver futures were last up $0.002 at $18.67 an ounce.

The European Central Bank Thursday raised its main interest rate by a more aggressive 0.5%. It was the first rate hike for the ECB in 11 years. The Euro currency rallied and the U.S. dollar index sold off on the news, which helped to lift gold and silver prices. The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to raise its key interest rate by at least 0.75% at next week’s FOMC meeting.

Global stock markets were mostly weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed mixed at midday. The U.S. stock index bulls are having a good week and have restarted near-term price uptrends on the daily charts.

In other overnight news, Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi has tendered his resignation for the second time as his government is close to collapsing. Italian government bond yields rose, with the 10-year at 3.6% Russia has restarted natural gas flowing through the Nord Stream pipeline into Europe. That helped to pressure crude oil prices.

Investors lose more than $42 million to fake crypto apps in less than a year, says FBI

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices down and trading around $97.25 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is slightly down in midday U.S. trading. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 2.967%.

Technically, August gold futures prices scored a bullish “outside day” up on the daily bar chart today, after hitting a 15-month low early on. Short covering and bargain hunting were featured. The gold futures bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending lower on the daily bar chart. The recent “collapse in volatility” on the daily bar chart (whereby at least three price bars in a row are significantly smaller than previous price bars) suggested a bigger price move was coming soon, and it occurred Wednesday afternoon-Thursday morning. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $1,750.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,650.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $1,722.00 and then at $1,735.00. First support is seen at $1,700.00 and then at today’s low of $1,678.40. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5.

September silver futures bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $20.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $17.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $19.03 and then at $19.36. Next support is seen at $18.50 and then at $18.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5.

September N.Y. copper closed down 210 points at 330.40 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. The copper bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. A steep six-week-old price downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 375.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 315.00 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 337.55 cents and then at 340.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 325.05 cents and then at the July low of 313.15 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5.

By Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

 

Tim Moseley

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From Economic Depression To Economic Hope

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From Economic Depression To Economic Hope

Economic Depression

As we progress in 2022, many commentators suggest we are entering into a deep depression which will surpass the Great Depression of the 1930’s.  If you look at the statistical picture below, it tells its own story over time about the declining value of the dollar. This is not just something which happened in the last two years alone.

With travel being curtailed in the wake of high inflation, hikes in energy prices,  gas prices, not to mention the travel disruption across airports and trains, it seems that mankind is being backed into a corner via government policies that don’t make sense.

How things fare in the long run is largely going to be determined by the capacity to see opportunity and revive business in a way that brings greater value.

Many brick and mortar businesses are operating work from home policies. With more people having to work from home, the opportunity to work online is becoming more apparent. You may be seeking alternative income to supplement your job, or to replace it for a different lifestyle.

If you have never run your own business, or even if you are having to start again from scratch, the proposition of online working may feel scary. You may even be wondering if it is worth making money when your hard earned money is effectively being zeroed out.

 

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Economic Hope

The good news is that money never disappears in a downturn. It simply transfers from one place to another. 

An example in kind is that while the economy crashed, those who had invested in vaccines made a lot of money because the vaccines were deemed to be the answer to a health crisis en masse.  I will not comment further on the politics and ethics of this subject here.

However the point is there is always opportunity if you are prepared to take a step back, do some research and adjust your path moving forward. Here are some suggestions to move you toward economic hope.

Start With You | Create Your own Away Day

Start with yourself and take some time out uninterrupted whether at home or away. Do  a brain dump on every gift and ability. What skills do you possess? What do you feel passionate about? What lifestyle would you like to create going forward? 

If you could do something in life that would combine your abilities, yet give you a sense of purpose in life, what would that look like? Do not answer according to your circumstance or that of the economy for now. Just let your creativity and imagination flow for now

Lifestyle Design | How Money Works

On the note of lifestyle you may want to get conversant with how money works,  because money and business go hand in hand when devising a plan. You could use something like Cashflow Quadrant by Robert Kiyosaki as a framework to aid your thinking.

Image source: Robert Kiyosaki The Rich Dad Channel

Financial Literacy is important because this is an area where many rank low. It concerns the basics of how money works, and if you don’t have a fundamental grasp of this it is difficult to make money work to support your lifestyle aspirations.

Kiyosaki proposed four areas of money flow, employed, self-employed, business owner and investor. The difference between the left and right hand side of the quadrants is that on the left hand side you are the one working for money. The opposite applies on the right hand side.

How does this apply to offline and online  business?

Employee 

So this is where your ability to earn money is dependent on your presence and input of work. As a general rule, if you don’t show up, you don’t earn money. In this scenario you are trading time for money unless you have performance related pay or bonuses.

It’s important to do what you love, and for some that will be in the form of employment, whether that be in a service or a business working for someone else. 

One point to note is that if you have a job you love, you can still become wealthy. I made a mistake in my thinking on this because while I was still nursing the opposite was emphasized, that to become financially independent and free I needed to start my own business. 

I wanted to do that, so it was not a problem. But I could have become wealthy sooner while in employment had I learned about investing. This takes me back to financial literacy and its importance, and I will expand on this point under investment shortly.

Self-Employed

This is where you are in business as an entrepreneur. It's not quite the same as the Business Owner category above because you are the boss and also the employee in your own business. This makes you more of a solopreneur until you start building a team around you that you can outsource your non core competencies if you choose. 

When starting out in self employment it is important to establish the product or service you will supply, to whom and where. It must solve a problem or meet a significant desire in your prospects. So some research is important.

The simplest thing is to start having conversations with people about their needs and wants to get a sense of what might work. Often this is glossed over but is crucial if you want to set yourself up for success.

You can use online surveys such as MonkeySurvey, or if you want to go deeper there are some good courses built around various aspects of business including this type of research. Ryan Levesque built a whole course around the theme of asking. You can check his course called The Ask Method.

This will give you a solid marketing foundation from which you can build a product or service. Bear in mind that with a product it is easier to scale.

Affiliate Income

If you are not able or willing to create your own product or service you may wish to consider the affiliate model of income. This is where you market an already existing product created by someone else in exchange for a percentage of the sale in commissions. 

The benefit of this is that everything is supplied for you, leaving you to focus on marketing the product. The more a product solves a critical problem, the better the chance of making a sale.

For example if there was a product which plugged the gap in the declining value of the dollar,  do you think people might be interested.

Gold is real money, and inflation proof, and there are affiliate businesses based round this. While many deem this to be a long term investment, solutions are arising to allow you to make purchases in gold.

Kinesis is one such example where they tackled the problem of Gresham’s Law, which states that the current system means that people spend ‘bad’ money [fiat money ] while saving ‘good’ money [ gold ].

They have now made it possible not only to purchase gold [ and silver ], but are coming out with a debit card which will allow you to spend that physically allocated gold you have purchased, while getting yields for saving, spending and referring.

With this solution you can take remedial action to stop the rot of economic depression by plugging the gap of the declining value of your money, while earning money from helping others at the same time.

Business Owner

This is on the right hand side of the quadrant where money is working for you. It is often referred to as passive income. This is where you set something up, and with a little work up front, it pays you over and over again. 

Network marketing is an example of a model some companies use. There is a main company and there is a product which you can purchase on a subscription basis. You can then build an organization of distributors and get paid a percentage of their results. This type of income is referred to as passive income. 

You can be on holiday and make money from the efforts of your team. Rather like the affiliate model, you get to own a business without having to set up a brick and mortar structure and all the tools are provided, so you can work from home or anywhere there is an internet connection, hence the term, the laptop lifestyle.

A key difference is that network marketing income relies heavily on the recruitment of others. Affiliate marketing does not require that.

You may decide to create a traditional local business where you provide employment in the process. You are not an employee in this scenario but oversee the team of workers. The success of your business will depend on a lot of factors beyond the product or service itself.

I recommend Marc Allen’s book called The Millionaire Course published in 2003. In this book he not only describes how to become wealthy, but shares how he built a publishing business with spiritual principles, and put an infrastructure in place that made it difficult for his employees to want to leave as they felt so well cared for. 

This included generous pension plans and profit share bonuses as well as an environment where everyone could be creative and contribute to the company growth

If you don’t wish to deal with people trading the stock markets is another area where you can operate set and forget strategies for passive income, although you can work it manually too if you prefer.

Investor

You can also invest in a company’s growth and get paid dividends over time as it profits. If you choose this path, do learn how investments work, otherwise all you will be doing is speculating and hoping for the best, without proper strategy.

I was quite frugal in my upbringing and my mum taught me about the importance of saving money. I knew nothing about investments though. Let me ask you something. If you took $10 per month and put it into a ‘vehicle’ that returned 8% per month, with compound interest how long would it take to become a millionaire?

I thought it would be over 30 years and when I worked out the answer manually, then in a spreadsheet, I was shocked, and then I cried, because even I could have invested $10 per month as a nurse. 

I have since corrected that and planted investment seeds. This is a longer term strategy but an example of how you can work the left and right hand side of the quadrant above

Markethive is an example of an opportunity to invest in the growth of the company. Currently you can buy something called an ILP or an initial loan procurement and get paid as the company makes profits. 

Robert Kiyosaki is famous for his book Rich Dad Poor Dad, and teaches financial literacy and wealth so you can thrive rather than just survive. You can read more about the above model in his book Cashflow Quadrant available on Amazon.
 

 

 

 

About: Anita Narayan. (United Kingdom) My life's work is about helping individuals to greater freedom through joy and purpose without self-sabotage, so that inspirational legacy can serve generations to come. Find me at my Markethive Profile Page | My Twitter Account | and my LinkedIn Profile.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tim Moseley

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Gold weaker – volatility collapse portends bigger price move soon

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Gold weaker – "volatility collapse" portends bigger price move soon

Gold prices are modestly lower in midday U.S. trading Wednesday, in more subdued mid-summer trading. However, there has been a “collapse in volatility” on the daily bar chart, which suggests a significantly bigger price move is on the horizon in gold—possibly yet this week. Given that gold prices are trending lower on the daily chart, odds favor that bigger price move being on the downside. Improved trader/investor risk appetite this week is keeping buyers in the safe-haven metals mostly standing on the sidelines. August gold futures were last down $4.90 at $1,705.80. September Comex silver futures were last up $0.042 at $18.76 an ounce.

Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are firmer near midday. The U.S. stock index bulls are having a good week so far and have restarted near-term price uptrends on the daily charts. Corporate earnings reports are on the front burner of the stock markets this week. Otherwise, its summertime doldrums trading amid a lack of major, fresh news.

Traders and investors are looking ahead to Thursday when the European Central Bank holds its regular monetary policy meeting. The ECB is expected to raise interest rates for the first time in 11 years, with many market watchers looking for a 0.5% rate increase. The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to raise its key interest rate by at least 0.75% at next week’s FOMC meeting.

Copper/gold ratio shows Fed monetary policy is too tight – MKS PAMP

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices weaker and trading around $103.50 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is slightly higher in midday U.S. trading. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 3.164%. The 2-year and 10-year Treasury bond yields remain inverted at mid-week, which is one clue of an impending U.S. economic recession.

Technically, August gold futures bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending lower on the daily bar chart. However, the recent “collapse in volatility” on the daily bar chart (whereby at least three price bars in a row are significantly smaller than previous price bars) suggests a bigger price move is coming soon. It’s important to note that markets typically vacillate between periods of higher volatility and lower volatility, and at present the gold market is in a period of low volatility. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $1,750.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,650.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $1,722.00 and then at $1,735.00. First support is seen at $1,700.00 and then at the July low of $1,695.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5.

September silver futures bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $20.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $17.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $19.03 and then at $19.36. Next support is seen at this week’s low of $18.51 and then at $18.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5.

September N.Y. copper closed up 405 points at 333.05 cents today. Prices closed near mid-range today. The copper bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. A steep six-week-old price downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 375.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 315.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 337.55 cents and then at 340.00 cents. First support is seen at 325.00 cents and then at the July low of 313.15 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5.

By Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

 

Tim Moseley

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Advanced AI for regular people

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Advanced AI For Regular People…

by Jeff Brown, editor, The Bleeding Edge

 

AI for regular people

 

I’m almost certain that five years from now, we’ll look back at 2022 as the year we hit a critical inflection point in artificial intelligence (AI).

We’ve previously had a look at major developments around advanced AI language models like OpenAI’s GPT-3, Meta’s OPT, and Google’s LaMDA. These are all AIs that most consumers wouldn’t be able to distinguish from a human in chat-based conversation.

But the high-end versions of these models are reserved for researchers, academic institutions, and, of course, the companies themselves.

Meta did make the lower-end version of its AI-based language model open source so anyone can use it. But thus far, the general public has not had access to the best AI-based models out there.

Until now.

An international group of open-source researchers known as BigScience just released an advanced AI model available to all, after about a year of hard work. This is a model that was trained on 176 billion parameters… making it on par with what OpenAI, Meta, and Google have developed. They call it Bloom.

What’s more, BigScience designed Bloom such that it supports 46 different languages and 13 programming languages. That means the AI can speak all the world’s top languages. And it can even write software code in the world’s top programming languages.

And like the big-tech models, Bloom can also write stories, develop instruction manuals, summarize long articles, and write customized computer programs.

My team and I had some fun testing Bloom out. To start with, we asked Bloom to generate text based on a question: How should we think about artificial intelligence today?

Here was the answer:

We also asked Bloom to help us translate English to Japanese. Here it is in action:

And here’s the most impressive part – BigScience developed this model at a fraction of the cost. All it took was $7 million in grant money. With this funding, BigScience trained the AI for three months using 384 of NVIDIA’s best GPUs.

For comparison, other models likely cost tens of millions of dollars to develop.

What we’re witnessing is the complete democratization of AI. Anyone can put Bloom to work – either using their own computers or by renting computing power in the cloud.

And here’s the most incredible part – this comes just months after the big developments from OpenAI, Meta, and Google that we discussed.

We’ve never seen such rapid development cycles before. The open source community is able to essentially duplicate the technology of the world’s most powerful and well-resourced companies, in a matter of months, for a fraction of the cost.

And with the technology now out in the wild, we are inevitably going to see some amazing breakthroughs even in just the next 12 months. We’re in for some radical change… and some pretty incredible investment opportunities.

 

New Opportunities Are Emerging For Citizens of The World.

Freedom and democracy may appear to be struggling to stay alive in America, but there may be a knock-out punch ready to be released. The evolution of the blockchain-enabled metaverse is going to enable the 'Citizens of the World' to gain their own Freedom by democratizing power and creating a new world with new rules, new players, and new opportunities. For 99.99% of us, the metaverse will improve our real-world lives through the democratization of power and opportunity.

Along with the major long-term trend of society towards decentralization and smaller-scale organizations, there are new opportunities developing to help 'Preparers' in the cryptocurrency sector. Businesses are beginning to issue their own Crypto Coins that can be traded on Cryptocoin Exchanges.

Markethive.com for example will be releasing its HiveCoin (HIV) in the coming weeks. It has tremendous upside potential that is outlined in a Video by Founder Tom Prendergast, "Entrepreneur Advantage…".

Not only that, if you go to their website and register as a FREE Member, you will be given 500 HiveCoins for "FREE" along with access to several Earning Opportunities and online tools to increase your HiveCoin balance.

Be sure to check it out today – Markethive.com

Markethive

Tim Moseley

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Gold silver near steady – new fundamental inputs awaited

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Gold, silver near steady – new fundamental inputs awaited

Gold and silver prices are trading not far from unchanged in midday U.S. trading Tuesday. A big drop in the U.S. dollar index this week is limiting selling interest in the precious metals. However, rising U.S. Treasury bond yields this week and a wobbly crude oil market are squelching the bulls. A lack of fresh, markets-moving economic or geopolitical news in mid-summer has metals traders languishing and looking more at the outside markets for direction. August gold futures were last up $0.90 at $1,711.10. September Comex silver futures were last down $0.105 at $18.735 an ounce.

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are solidly higher at midday. Corporate earnings reports are on the front burner of the stock markets this week. Otherwise, its summertime doldrums trading amid a lack of major, fresh news this week.

In overnight news, the Euro zone consumer price index report for June came in at up 8.6%, year on year, which was right in line with market expectations.

Traders and investors are looking ahead to Thursday when the European Central Bank holds its regular monetary policy meeting. The ECB is expected to raise interest rates for the first time in 11 years, with many market watchers looking for a 0.5% rate increase. The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to raise its key interest rate by at least 0.75% at next week’s FOMC meeting.

The gold market has turned bearish

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices firmer and trading around $103.00 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is solidly lower again today. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 3.00%.

Technically, August gold futures bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $1,750.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,650.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $1,722.00 and then at $1,735.00. First support is seen at the July low of $1,695.00 and then at $1,685.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.

September silver futures bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $20.00 an ounce. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $17.50. First resistance is seen at $19.00 and then at $19.36. Next support is seen at today’s low of $18.51 and then at $18.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5.

September N.Y. copper closed down 520 points at 329.30 cents today. Prices closed near mid-range today. The copper bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. A steep six-week-old price downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 375.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 315.00 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 337.10 cents and then at 340.00 cents. First support is seen at 325.00 cents and then at the July low of 313.15 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5.

By Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

 

Tim Moseley

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Dispute Over The Kazakh Oil Pipeline

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Dispute Over The Kazakh Oil Pipeline

Kazakhstan, officially the Republic of Kazakhstan, is a transcontinental landlocked country located mainly in Central Asia and partly in Eastern Europe.

The country dominates Central Asia economically and politically, generating 60 percent of the region's GDP, primarily through its oil and gas industry

Kazakhstan holds about 4 billion tonnes (3.9 billion long tons; 4.4 billion short tons) of proven recoverable oil reserves and 2,000 cubic kilometers (480 cubic miles) of gas. Kazakhstan is the 19th largest oil-producing nation in the world.

The economy of Kazakhstan is the largest in Central Asia in both absolute and per capita terms. Kazakhstan has attracted more than $370 billion of foreign investments since becoming an independent republic after the collapse of the former Soviet Union.

 

Large energy companies such as Chevron, ExxonMobil, Royal Dutch Shell, and Eni own since the 90th  rights for oil and gas production in Kazakhstan.

Kazakhstan has a customs union with Russia and Belarus and is also a member of the Eurasian Economic Union. Yet, for example, in 2017, the European Union was Kazakhstan's most important trading partner, with a share of 38.7% in foreign trade. Kazakhstan has the potential to be a world-class oil exporter in the medium term. 

Kazakhstan has the largest and most powerful economy in Central Asia. The economy of Kazakhstan, supported by rising oil production and prices, grew by an average of 8% per year until 2013, before slowing down between 2014 and 2015. It was thus the most dynamic world economy of the early 21st century after China and Qatar.

 

Problems of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium

Beginning of July a Russian court ordered that the Caspian pipeline consortium  (CPC) must suspend operations for 30 days. The court justified the decision by the possibility of environmental damage. The report adds to global concerns about oil supplies, Reuters warned.

 

The capacity of the Caspian pipeline

CPC brings oil from Kazakhstan to the Russian Black Sea coast and is one of the largest oil pipelines in the world. It transports about one percent of the world's oil.

The consortium that owns the pipeline said that it must abide by the decision, but intends to appeal against it. At the same time, it refused to comment on its activities. A Russian court on Monday 11th July overturned the ruling against CPC and instead fined it 200,000 roubles ($3,300). 

 

Kazakhstan – Caspian pipeline

The CPC pipeline has been in the spotlight since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which has curtailed Russian exports and caused a sharp rise in oil prices. The United States imposed sanctions on Russian oil but said that flows from Kazakhstan through Russia can continue to operate without interruption.

According to the CPC, deputy prime minister of the Russian Federation Viktoria Abramchenkova ordered the regulatory authorities, including the Rostechnadzor technical supervision authority, to inspect the facilities in the Russian part. The inspection allegedly found discrepancies in documents relating to oil spill management plans. Oil leaked from the terminal last year. CPC originally received a deadline of 30. November, but eventually the authorities changed the decision and the court gave them the truth.

CPC is the only oil export pipeline on Russian territory that is not fully owned by the Russian company Transneft which owns a 24 percent stake in the consortium. Other shareholders include Kazakh company KazMunayGas and American companies Chevron and Exxon. Its length is over 1500 km.

According to Interfax, the explosion of the pipeline occurred on Wednesday 6th July at the Tengiz field, whose reserves are estimated at 3.2 billion tons. The causes of the explosion, in which, according to Nexta, two people were killed and three others were injured, are unknown.

The site in the west of Kazakhstan is managed by Tengizchevroil, which is 50% owned by the American Chevron and another 25% by ExxonMobil. In Tengiz, a $ 45.2 billion mining expansion project has now been launched, which was to be completed in 2023. Kazakhstan is in terms of oil production with 1.7 million barrels per day at 11. place in the world, reports the Moscow Times.

The shareholders of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium are:

  • Transneft – 24%

  • KazMunaiGaz – 19%

  • Chevron Caspian Pipeline Consortium Co. – 15%

  • LukArco B.V. – 12.5%

  • Mobil Caspian Pipeline Co. – 7.5%

  • Rosneft – Shell Caspian Ventures Ltd. – 7.5%

  • CPC Company – 7%

  • BG Overseas Holdings Ltd. – 2%

  • Eni International (N.A.) N.V. S.ar.l – 2%

  • Kazakhstan Pipeline Ventures LLC – 1.75%

  • Oryx Caspian Pipeline LLC – 1.75%

Disputes between Russia and Kazakhstan

Between Russia and Kazakhstan there have recently been disagreements over the war in Ukraine, the agency DPA warned. Kazakhstan recently offered the EU to supply more oil and gas to Europe and did not recognize the independence of the separatist republics in eastern Ukraine.

Through the CPC pipeline, 54 million tons, or 1.2 million barrels per day, of Kazakh CPC Blend light sour crude oil were exported last year. Through the terminal in the Russian port of Novorossiysk flows 80 percent of oil exported from Kazakhstan. The handling capacity of the pipeline is 67 million tons per year. Its operation has already been interrupted once this year due to damage to the equipment of the Black Sea terminal.

Kazakhstan's key oil pipeline is back up and running since 13th July again. But Russia wants to push to stop it and according to sources from three Western companies operating in Kazakhstan, it is likely that a long-term shutdown of CPC operations may still occur. Kazakhstan does not have access to the sea and thus has very limited alternative transport options. A failure of the CPC would mean a drop in exports of up to 50 million tons of oil per year.

In spite of all the complications, the president of Kazakhstan Tokaev thinks that his country could create a kind of "buffer zone" to compensate for the imbalance in the distribution of energy between East and West and North and south, he said. In this context, Tokayev called on the EU to expand alternative transport corridors, including across the Caspian Sea. This would make it possible to supply raw materials to Europe outside of Russia.

Many Western companies have exited operations in Russia, with oil majors among the first to leave in the days after the conflict began. Western sanctions have disrupted Russian exports and pushed up energy prices.

In response, Russia made steps towards seizing oil and gas projects Sakhalin 1 and 2, where Shell and Exxon have stakes. A Western executive familiar with CPC operations said Sakhalin was "a definite sign of things to come for CPC".

Shortly after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, international oil prices spiked to their highest levels since the records of 2008.

They have since eased to just above $100 a barrel as the market anticipates economic weakness will lower demand, although selling has been limited by concerns of tight supplies that would be exacerbated by a cut in CPC output.

"Losing one million barrels per day in an already tight environment can lead to an unsolvable problem for the oil market," Amrita Sen from Energy Aspects in London said.

JP Morgan analysts predicted last week that oil prices could jump to an all-time high of $190 per barrel if a combined 3 million BPD of output from Russia and Kazakhstan was hit by sanctions and related issues.

Lack of Alternatives

Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev told his government to diversify oil supply routes. All alternatives are challenging, for instance, shipments over the Caspian sea face tanker shortages and have little capacity to take more oil.

The United States imposed sanctions on Russian oil but said that flows from Kazakhstan through Russia can continue to operate without interruption. Now, however, this possibility is under threat, and it is not certain that Russia will not take further action against the functionality of this pipeline.

Relationship between Russia and Kazakhstan

This was the third time in recent months that the CPC has run into trouble.

The freeze on activities stood to cost Kazakhstan hundreds of millions of dollars in lost revenue. 

The reality is that Kazakhstani-Russian relations have been less than ideal for weeks, not to say months or even years.

The depth of Kazakhstan’s economic ties with Russia cannot be underestimated. Of the $101.5 billion of trade that the country did in 2021, around one-quarter was with Russia, a country with which Kazakhstan shares more than 7,600 kilometers of the border. The regimes of the two countries are bound also in other ways. Kazakhstan is a member of the Moscow-led Collective Security Treaty Organisation defense bloc.

 

Sources:

Themoscowtimes.com

Reuters.com

Eurasianet.org

Echo24.cz

Ceskenoviny.cz

byznys.hn.cz
 

 

 

Tim Moseley

The Artist that came out of the Winter