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Emotional Whirlwind: Chinas Real Estate Saga Casts a Tentative Mood Over Financial Markets

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Emotional Whirlwind: China's Real Estate Saga Casts a Tentative Mood Over Financial Markets

China's real estate market has become a focal point of global attention, generating uncertainty and raising concerns about the overall financial landscape. The economic situations of major property developers in China have been a cause for worry, leaving the world in suspense. This ongoing saga has evoked strong emotions and carries significant implications.

The consequences of a collapse in China's real estate market extend far beyond financial territory. It would have a profound impact on the lives of millions of people, including homeowners, investors, and those employed in the construction and related industries. The social and psychological implications cannot be overlooked.

Moreover, the interconnectedness of the global financial system means that any significant disruption in China's real estate market could have ripple effects worldwide. International investors, financial institutions, and markets are closely monitoring the situation, aware of the potential implications for their economies.

The stakes are undeniably high, and the outcome of this situation will shape the future trajectory of China's economy and reverberate throughout the global financial landscape. By understanding the complex factors and underlying emotions, we can gain a deeper appreciation for the significance of this unfolding event, the multifaceted factors at play, and the feelings underpinning this gripping narrative.


Image source: The Plaid Zebra

The Weight of Uncertainty, Fear, Anxiety, and Hope

Have you ever wondered what's happening in China's economy? A new twist keeps us on the edge of our seats every week. From massive property companies teetering on the brink of bankruptcy to sprawling construction sites sitting empty and skyrocketing youth unemployment rates, China's financial situation is anything but stable. And remember, this isn't just a problem for China alone. The global economy is closely tied to China's fate, like a ship anchored to its economic performance. So, what's the next wave of challenges that China is facing?

Let's start by painting a picture of China's current economic landscape before we delve into its implications for the global economy. It's a big task, but let's dive right in. When the COVID-19 restrictions were lifted late last year, many expected China's economy to bounce back like a sprinter out of the starting blocks. However, it has been more of a limp in recent months instead of a leap.

Disturbing economic data has been emerging, particularly in the housing sector. One major player in the news is Evergrande. This colossal property developer made headlines in 2021 when it defaulted on its debt, earning the title of the world's most indebted developer with over $300 billion in debt. Unfortunately, the company is facing even more bad news. According to the latest estimates, its liabilities have now climbed to $340 billion, and it has recently filed for Chapter 15 bankruptcy protection in the United States. But Evergrande is not the only troubled developer in China.

You might be wondering why a crisis in China's housing market is such a big deal. In most economies, the housing sector plays a significant role in the gross domestic product (GDP), which is a key indicator of a nation's financial health. But in China, housing is even more crucial, accounting for 25% to 30% of its GDP. That's practically double the figure for the United States. Why is this the case? In China, people have limited options for investing their excess cash. Stock markets are complicated to access and nearly impossible to tap into international trades.


The central plaza of Kangbashi district in Ordos City, Inner Mongolia. Dubbed China's
signature ghost city, the district is less than 10 percent occupied. Qilai Shen/Getty Images

As a result, people park their savings in housing, which has traditionally been seen as a safe investment. This explains the phenomenon of ghost cities and massive clusters of vacant apartment buildings. These empty flats are not just abandoned; they are investment properties that owners choose not to rent out, fearing it would decrease their value. Estimates suggest a staggering 65 to 80 million vacant apartments across China. The sight of these desolate urban landscapes is similar to a dystopian movie.

For many years, house prices in China were on a steady upward trajectory. However, in recent years, the situation has changed. Officially, new home prices have seen a 2.4% dip since August 2021, with existing homes faring even worse, experiencing a 6% decline. But other sources of evidence suggest that the situation is much worse than official figures indicate. Reports from property agents and private data providers show drops of at least 15% in prime neighborhoods in major metropolitan areas like Shanghai and Shenzhen.

This is not good news for real estate companies, private investors, or the economy. It creates an atmosphere of economic uncertainty and leads to reduced spending. It's also a nightmare for aspiring homeowners who worry that they have invested their life savings into projects that may never be completed. You may recall the protests last summer when displeased investors refused to pay their mortgages due to delays in completing their homes. Such outbursts are rare in China.

So, what has caused this drop in house prices? The reasons are complex, but let's unpack them as succinctly as possible. First, let's consider China's urban migration statistics. From 1990 to 2020, the urban population exploded from around 301 million to a massive 848 million. This rapid urbanization and relatively cheap credit led developers to go into overdrive, constructing buildings as fast as possible. However, despite the construction boom, housing soon became unaffordable for many, especially in major cities.

For example, in 2020, buying an apartment in Shenzhen could cost you about 43 times the average annual salary. The government implemented a series of regulatory measures around 2020 to cool down the housing bubble. These measures included higher mortgage down payments, restrictions on buying multiple properties, and stricter credit conditions for developers. While well-intentioned, these steps now appear to have been too aggressive. Developers hit the brakes; many defaulted on their debts, and potential buyers were spooked, leading to decreased demand and prices falling drastically.


Created with an investment of $161 billion in the early 2000s, Kangbashi can house over 
300,000 people. So far, only 30,000 have moved in. Qilai Shen/Getty Images

Assessing the full extent of this crisis is challenging because reliable data in China is hard to come by. The Chinese government wants to control the narrative and minimize the data release that could cause market panic and reflect poorly on the government. For example, in August 2023, the government stopped publishing youth unemployment data after it reached an unprecedented level of over 21% in June of this year. However, some facts cannot be hidden. Big companies are in trouble, and markets worldwide are paying attention.

While Evergrande has been grabbing headlines, it is not the only player in China's deteriorating real estate landscape. For example, Country Garden, a property developer four times larger than Evergrande with an estimated one million apartments under construction, missed bond payments in early August. Country Garden has until September 2023 to make payments or risk default. Regardless of whether it can come up with the money, the damage has been done. Confidence in China's housing market, which was already shaky, has taken another hit.

A Balancing Act of the Government’s Intervention

The Chinese government's interventions in the real estate market stimulate a range of emotions and frustration as homeowners face stricter regulations and hope these measures will bring stability. It's a delicate balancing act between economic growth and preventing a bubble from bursting. The world watches with bated breath to see if these measures will lead to a safe landing or a turbulent crash.

So, where does China go from here? What can the government do to steer the economy out of troubled waters? One straightforward solution might be a robust fiscal stimulus, such as slashing interest rates dramatically to encourage borrowing and stimulate exports, which have traditionally been a cornerstone of China's economy. However, this tactic has its risks. It could potentially trigger capital flight as corporations and households seek higher interest rates abroad. 

This would cause China's currency, the Renminbi, to weaken further against the dollar. So far, the government's steps have been more cautious than transformative. For example, on August 21, China's central bank modestly reduced its one-year loan prime rate from 3.55 to 3.45%. However, market watchers generally agree that this move is like bringing a pocket knife to a sword fight. Bolder reforms are urgently needed.

Fortunately, China has tools at its disposal to mitigate the crisis. For example, the government could compel banks to lend more, which, while not a magic bullet, could act as a firewall against a full-scale financial meltdown and a subsequent credit crunch. The Chinese government has been trying to prevent a disorderly default by imposing stricter regulations on the property market, injecting liquidity into the banking system, and urging Evergrande to negotiate with its stakeholders. 

However, the government has also clarified that it will not bail out Evergrande or other troubled firms, as it wants to avoid moral hazard and promote market discipline. The outcome of this crisis will depend on how well the government can balance its conflicting goals of maintaining stability and reforming the economy.


Image: Markethive.com

Fear, Excitement, and Optimism Grip

If Country Garden can't sort out this debt issue by September, it could have severe repercussions for the property sector and the broader Chinese economy, which will have a ripple effect on the financial markets. The fact that bond trading for them has already stopped is a clear sign that significant challenges lie ahead. Investors, policymakers, and homeowners are all bracing for a turbulent ride.

The potential fallout from Country Garden's troubles is substantial. Around 145,000 families anxiously await their homes; their dreams and investments hang in the balance. This situation is a stark reminder that even the mightiest companies can stumble, shaking confidence in the market. Small suppliers in the property development chain are also feeling the heat as they rely on timely payments from these giants. If things continue this way, it could reshape China's property development industry and lead to higher unemployment. 

Now, you might be wondering if state-backed firms are safe from this turmoil. Even they are showing signs of vulnerability. This isn't just a problem for China; it is a global problem. American investors, for example, have stakes in Chinese assets and debts, and any loss of confidence in the Chinese market can lead to sell-offs and affect U.S. portfolios.

So, in a nutshell, the story of Country Garden and Evergrande's financial struggles is not just about the two companies debts; it's about how it could send shockwaves through the Chinese and even the global economy. It's a situation being closely watched, and the outcomes will have far-reaching implications.

 

 

About: Prince Ibenne. (Nigeria) Prince is passionate about helping people understand the crypto-verse through his easily digestible articles. He is an enthusiastic supporter of blockchain technology and cryptocurrency. Find me at my Markethive Profile Page | My Twitter Account | and my LinkedIn Profile.

 

 

 

 

 

Tim Moseley

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Two Types of Leadership Seeking To Emerge

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Two Types of Leadership

There are two types of leadership looking to emerge right now. One leads to total enslavement. The other has the potential to set you free. Just listen to this extracted clip up to the 4min mark, from a speech by Barack Obama several years ago, which captures the summary of the conflict. 

It lays out two forms of power, one whose central theme is the empowerment of the people, as underpinned in the Constitution of the USA. The other is a top down centralized form of world power, based on the concept that mankind needs to be controlled by man’s version of a sovereign power.

The Old Guard

Image Source: The Old Guard

If the Rothschilds, Rockefellers and Vatican have their way in their control of giant corporations, we will be moving to a new world order, which means everything is centralized and controlled by the few. This includes the governments whom I exposed in a previous article as being corporations, not service entities. 

See if you can make the connection between their stated relationship with ‘other financial ‘ institutions, and how this connects to the current asset stripping that is going on with the land and the farmers, as one example. Their control will be accompanied by a disdain and dislike for ‘we the people’ and will result in more rules that stack the cards in their favor so to speak. It has already been happening.

For those who can read the signs of the times, and go beyond the conflicts of mainstream media reporting, it is becoming more evident that this is what is in play. If you still think we are reverting to getting our life back after the latest global events read this from the Vatican News.

Troubled Waters

The traditional leaders of our times have largely led us into troubled waters, and many are now awakening to the realization that this is far from accidental. Rather it was orchestrated to enable the few to benefit while the majority plunge deeper into modern day slavery in all aspects of their lives.

If that still feels like a dramatic statement to you, simply take your research beyond the mainstream media and all governmental authorities who have conflicts of interest with their puppet masters and the general public, and you might start to think differently.  If you conduct more independent research, a pattern will emerge that cannot continuously be put down to error or incompetence, and clarity will emerge. 

Self-Serving Leadership is Not Leadership

It seems that money continues to do the talking, with politicians and many big corporate CEOs selling their soul to line their pockets, serving money and profits, while behaving duplicitously toward the public, and claiming ignorance on the repeated errors that play out in governance.

This is their model as David Icke eloquently put it. To create money they find a way of robbing the people. They create a problem, they watch the reaction, and then come up with a solution for the problem they created, which, by the way, they blame on the population. Usually that solution requires you to part with money in some shape or form. The energy crisis is a great example of this in action.

Self Serving Leadership Characteristics Exposed

My submission is that what we are witnessing from a leadership perspective, is a style of leadership that is based on a scarcity mentality, and a disregard for mankind as being worthy of equal consideration. Current politics is based on a hierarchical structure with ‘divide and rule’ being its modus operandi.

Mental Characteristics

At a psychological level scarcity mentality is playing out. This is based on the belief that there is not enough to go around, which of necessity leads to a survival strategy, marked by competition. 

An example of this is Bill Gates' Ted Talk, where he talks about the world being overpopulated and how vaccines within a CO2 formula can help to reduce the world population. It’s no surprise that the Climate Agenda is now taking stage at this moment, and how everything that is happening is being connected in such a way as to help them impose the new world order.

If you think that the airport and train strikes are simply about wage protests, think again. We are in a different version of lockdown where freedom to travel is being curtailed, and not by virtue of ’vaccination’ status alone. In a previous article I shared a university piece recommending that by 2030 all UK airports should be shut, and that we should only be able to eat certain things.

The thinking behind this also points to a purely convergent thinking which focuses on narrowing down a problem toward a solution. In this case it is a biased form of convergent thinking, proposing a one-size fits all solution that gives huge benefits to the few who are pulling the strings. 

The population does not really get to have a say. Ask yourself why Bill Gates talked freely about vaccines being part of a depopulation strategy, and why he is buying up huge amounts of land in the USA. The key strategy used by big corporations and certain politicians is through competitive thinking showing up in the monopoly of industries. Competition, when done fairly, can be healthy. 

Monopoly on the other hand is a divide and rule strategy, where an attempt is made to effectively wipe out the opposition, so the few rule the roost. Ask yourself why Dr David Noakes and his business partner were extradited to France under the corrupt European Warrant, which allows someone to be thrown in jail without evidence. 

Their so-called crime was that they were helping so many people to put cancer into remission through a naturally occurring protein called GC-MAF. They got hounded under the guise of regulatory investigation, and were then extradited to a French prison. 

The last thing I gleaned was that they were not allowed daylight for more than about 20minutes, and their health was suffering greatly – unsurprisingly. They represented a significant threat and opposition to Big Pharma because they were getting huge and better results. They had to be removed.

The mental attitude is to manipulate and shape thinking through the advertising of fear and propaganda, based on their false narratives. The goal is to disempower the people so the few can asset strip with less and less resistance until the people are at zero. 

It is a top down thinking and approach to governance, which dictates to people what they can think, say or do. In this scenario they are the puppet masters and we are the puppets. That has become evident in the censorship and de-platforming of several thought leaders on youtube, who challenged the status quo. It is plain to see that this type of thinking and leadership does not serve the people and the planet on which they live. This is the old guard of current leadership. It’s time for a changing of the guard.

The Cross Roads

The world is at a major crossroads right now, and the decision that each of us makes from here will determine the destiny of the planet. There are more of us than those seeking to impose their control. We pay for the government through our taxes. Therefore we are not powerless.

However it involves more than words or just voting for another politician. For example in the UK we now have a new leader of the conservative party. We did not get to vote, it was all done internally.

Ask yourself though, given the choice, who would you vote for who is truly all for serving the people? If they are, does the current structure of governance allow them to operate freely to do so? It’s not as simple as just getting rid of Boris Johnson.

I have not voted for a politician since the days of Jeremy Thorpe, the former Liberal party leader, not because I do not care, but because I believe that a different governance structure which truly supports humanity needs to exist. Over in the USA Donald Trump and company are urging people to get out and vote.

Again the same question arises, as above in the example of the UK. If the current underpinning flawed structures remain, it doesn't matter who you vote for. It’s not so much that we need a new governance and leadership that has never been thought up before. We do, however, need a leadership that is going to mirror the opposite of the old guard, and lift humanity to new levels of life and freedom.

Building the Bridge of A New Leadership

It starts with you and me, and it takes presence and courage! We need to decide what principles and values will shape our lives and world moving forward. Then we can plan to embody it in practice. 

Source Image: Bridge Over Troubled Water 

This creates a new infrastructure which is first imprinted from within, ready to morph into being in the external world. So far, more people are making their voice heard, as seen in the many global demonstrations taking place, and the world has witnessed what could happen as the people of Sri Lanka chased their government out of official residence, causing them to flee the country.

However as that article suggests this is only one layer of addressing the crisis. There is evidence of a new leadership emerging where small groups of people are building infrastructure in technology and land, to replace the old. They are effectively building a parallel society where peaceful means of living and support can exist.

Agorism comes from the ancient greek work  equivalent 'agora', meaning an open place for assembly and market. Whether through agorism, or fairness and consideration for the welfare of all living things, projects are being established based on principles of living in an interdependent manner of sharing and caring.

Gandhi’s quote on ‘be the change you wish to see in the world’ gives a powerful insight into the sort of leadership that can change the world in a positive manner, while recognising all as leaders, not simply by virtue of status and title, but based on inner transformation, life experiences and the demonstration of wisdom attained throughout.

If everyone embraced and embodied that quote, the world would change overnight, because the collective energy of the will to change from the inside out would affect the collective consciousness, out of which something new and constructive would morph.

So ask yourself what sort of values and principles you wish to embody as part of a different world. What are you willing to be and do to become that leader in your life? After that I would like to recommend a book I have been reading over the summer which can help you embed your answers within a framework that builds from root principles.

That is Steven Covey’s well known book from the 80’s, The 7 Principles of Highly Effective People. While reading it, I recall thinking that this was more than just about effectiveness. It was about leadership. He has written a book on this too. It is well worth revisiting this book as there is timeless wisdom in there which needs resurrecting, and would serve as a great practical guide to build on Gandhi’s exhortation.

Effectiveness and Empowering Leadership

Steven Covey proposed that effectiveness is built on certain habits which permeate all areas of our lives, and that when those habits have their roots in life principles, rather than personal growth tactics and techniques alone, it has a far reaching effect that is akin to empowering leadership. His 7th Principle of Sharpening The Saw integrates the first 6. Let’s look at what constitutes that saw and how to sharpen your saw. 

Image Source: Sharpening The Saw

Empowered Leadership

Empowered Leadership is the ability to raise individuals up to express their potential in ways that go beyond self-service to that of service to humanity. It is a transcendent path and an interdependent path, which goes beyond the ego and its desires, to mastering the art of connection of  ‘we’, not just “i’ and ‘you’. He divided his principles into two domains, private victory and public victory and posited that what you build in the internal private world affects what shows up in the external world.

Private Victory

His first three habits come under private victory:-

Be Proactive

The basic theme here is that you are the creator, and do not have to wait for circumstances to be right in order to create. Therefore you can develop proactiveness rather than being reactive to circumstance.

Ask yourself:  ‘How proactive am I when it comes to my life principles?’ Do I wait for circumstances to be favorable or do I create resourcefulness?’

Begin with the End in Mind

You may be aware of the study in Australia where a group of people with terminal illness were asked about their regrets. Not one of them said they wished they had worked harder, because for most their jobs were a means to an end, rather than fulfilling of itself. All of the answers spoke to the quality of life, such as spending more time with loved ones, having the courage to go for their dreams, and so on.

Steven uses this to suggest a more accurate compass to designing our lives moving forward. He suggests a powerful visualization. However I will adjust it here to its core essence. Imagine if you can, that you do not have long to live.

Ask yourself “If today were my last day, what would I regret not being and doing?’

Use this as a guide to adjusting your life from today moving forward. To get his version of the visual he proposed, do read his book, and get a version of the book that is between 1989 and 2012 when he died because those versions will have his personal edits, not someone else's.

Put First things First

This section is all about scheduling priorities according to what is most important in our lives, not what is urgent yet not so important. Most people build around the urgent in reactive fashion.

Ask yourself: ‘ How well do I prioritize and attend to those things that are important to me?’

The remaining 4 habits come under Public Victory based on interdependent living:

Think Win-Win

This is about thinking in terms of cooperation to attain the highest good for all those involved. Win-win is not always possible and there are different variations to this scenario. Win-win types of scenarios fall under the banner of mastering the art of ‘we’.

Ask yourself: ‘ How well do I operate from the level of win-win in my relationships and work?’

Seek First to Understand Then to Be Understood

This is about the desire to understand the depth of a person and their world through listening and empathy, rather than to be preoccupied with what you want to say.

Ask yourself: ‘ What is the quality of my listening and empathy like?’

Synergize

This is about integration and bringing all the moving parts together in the private internal world to merge with the activities in the external world. It is about the being and doing aspects coming into alignment with each other.

Ask yourself: ‘How aligned and harmonized do I feel in my being and doing?

Sharpen The Saw

This is all about cultivation. This means taking the time out to reflect on the whole, and the moving parts where the seven habits are concerned. It is about asking the right questions, answering with honesty, and adjusting accordingly.

One of the interesting things Steven posed in his book is how it is possible to be efficient while doing the wrong things. Leadership he says is doing the right things, and management is about doing things well. So it is possible to be using your skills in the wrong place, for example. This provides an appropriate reference to reflect on the topic of new leadership.

Ask yourself: ‘Where would be the best application of my skills and talents right now, which would make my heart sing, while providing a significant contribution to humanity?’

This ties in with habit 2, Start with the End in Mind. Create your own personal constitution, using the seven habits as a structure for your thoughts and plans moving forward, so that your life becomes based on root principles, which can give way to a new form of governance in your life and beyond.

The great thing about this is that you don’t have to be perfect. Leadership is for all who are willing to correct error, incompetence and corruption, starting within, with a view to serving mankind. I like to look at current reality as a mirror and ask, for example, ‘where have I contributed to the error, incompetence and corruption I am observing?’ 

I then look at what values and principles I wish to bring forth in myself and beyond, so that my inner infrastructure can pave the way for new structures to form on the outside for the benefit of all. Steven Covey provides two recommended resources of people who were willing to bridge those gaps, from within their prison surroundings.

They are Viktor Frankl’s autobiography ‘Man’s Search for Meaning’, and Anwar Sadat’s autobiography, ‘In Search of Identity’. For a current inspirational example of someone standing in the gap between the old guard and new emerging leadership, take a look at the documentary The Seeds of Vandana Shiva, an activist in India who embodies fearlessness with the courage and integrity to serve humanity in a way which reflects their sacred identity.

With this type of leadership, everyone can become a light dispelling the darkness of the old destructive guard, through how they are being and what they are doing, while bringing about a new golden age, where all can shine and thrive.

Which of these two types of leadership emerges, is down to ‘we the people’, whether we choose by default and keep to the old guard, or get proactive as Steven Covey encourages, bringing in the new guard.

 

 

About: Anita Narayan. (United Kingdom) My life's work is about helping individuals to greater freedom through joy and purpose without self-sabotage, so that inspirational legacy can serve generations to come. Find me at my Markethive Profile Page | My Twitter Account | and my LinkedIn Profile.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tim Moseley

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From Economic Depression To Economic Hope

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From Economic Depression To Economic Hope

Economic Depression

As we progress in 2022, many commentators suggest we are entering into a deep depression which will surpass the Great Depression of the 1930’s.  If you look at the statistical picture below, it tells its own story over time about the declining value of the dollar. This is not just something which happened in the last two years alone.

With travel being curtailed in the wake of high inflation, hikes in energy prices,  gas prices, not to mention the travel disruption across airports and trains, it seems that mankind is being backed into a corner via government policies that don’t make sense.

How things fare in the long run is largely going to be determined by the capacity to see opportunity and revive business in a way that brings greater value.

Many brick and mortar businesses are operating work from home policies. With more people having to work from home, the opportunity to work online is becoming more apparent. You may be seeking alternative income to supplement your job, or to replace it for a different lifestyle.

If you have never run your own business, or even if you are having to start again from scratch, the proposition of online working may feel scary. You may even be wondering if it is worth making money when your hard earned money is effectively being zeroed out.

 

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Economic Hope

The good news is that money never disappears in a downturn. It simply transfers from one place to another. 

An example in kind is that while the economy crashed, those who had invested in vaccines made a lot of money because the vaccines were deemed to be the answer to a health crisis en masse.  I will not comment further on the politics and ethics of this subject here.

However the point is there is always opportunity if you are prepared to take a step back, do some research and adjust your path moving forward. Here are some suggestions to move you toward economic hope.

Start With You | Create Your own Away Day

Start with yourself and take some time out uninterrupted whether at home or away. Do  a brain dump on every gift and ability. What skills do you possess? What do you feel passionate about? What lifestyle would you like to create going forward? 

If you could do something in life that would combine your abilities, yet give you a sense of purpose in life, what would that look like? Do not answer according to your circumstance or that of the economy for now. Just let your creativity and imagination flow for now

Lifestyle Design | How Money Works

On the note of lifestyle you may want to get conversant with how money works,  because money and business go hand in hand when devising a plan. You could use something like Cashflow Quadrant by Robert Kiyosaki as a framework to aid your thinking.

Image source: Robert Kiyosaki The Rich Dad Channel

Financial Literacy is important because this is an area where many rank low. It concerns the basics of how money works, and if you don’t have a fundamental grasp of this it is difficult to make money work to support your lifestyle aspirations.

Kiyosaki proposed four areas of money flow, employed, self-employed, business owner and investor. The difference between the left and right hand side of the quadrants is that on the left hand side you are the one working for money. The opposite applies on the right hand side.

How does this apply to offline and online  business?

Employee 

So this is where your ability to earn money is dependent on your presence and input of work. As a general rule, if you don’t show up, you don’t earn money. In this scenario you are trading time for money unless you have performance related pay or bonuses.

It’s important to do what you love, and for some that will be in the form of employment, whether that be in a service or a business working for someone else. 

One point to note is that if you have a job you love, you can still become wealthy. I made a mistake in my thinking on this because while I was still nursing the opposite was emphasized, that to become financially independent and free I needed to start my own business. 

I wanted to do that, so it was not a problem. But I could have become wealthy sooner while in employment had I learned about investing. This takes me back to financial literacy and its importance, and I will expand on this point under investment shortly.

Self-Employed

This is where you are in business as an entrepreneur. It's not quite the same as the Business Owner category above because you are the boss and also the employee in your own business. This makes you more of a solopreneur until you start building a team around you that you can outsource your non core competencies if you choose. 

When starting out in self employment it is important to establish the product or service you will supply, to whom and where. It must solve a problem or meet a significant desire in your prospects. So some research is important.

The simplest thing is to start having conversations with people about their needs and wants to get a sense of what might work. Often this is glossed over but is crucial if you want to set yourself up for success.

You can use online surveys such as MonkeySurvey, or if you want to go deeper there are some good courses built around various aspects of business including this type of research. Ryan Levesque built a whole course around the theme of asking. You can check his course called The Ask Method.

This will give you a solid marketing foundation from which you can build a product or service. Bear in mind that with a product it is easier to scale.

Affiliate Income

If you are not able or willing to create your own product or service you may wish to consider the affiliate model of income. This is where you market an already existing product created by someone else in exchange for a percentage of the sale in commissions. 

The benefit of this is that everything is supplied for you, leaving you to focus on marketing the product. The more a product solves a critical problem, the better the chance of making a sale.

For example if there was a product which plugged the gap in the declining value of the dollar,  do you think people might be interested.

Gold is real money, and inflation proof, and there are affiliate businesses based round this. While many deem this to be a long term investment, solutions are arising to allow you to make purchases in gold.

Kinesis is one such example where they tackled the problem of Gresham’s Law, which states that the current system means that people spend ‘bad’ money [fiat money ] while saving ‘good’ money [ gold ].

They have now made it possible not only to purchase gold [ and silver ], but are coming out with a debit card which will allow you to spend that physically allocated gold you have purchased, while getting yields for saving, spending and referring.

With this solution you can take remedial action to stop the rot of economic depression by plugging the gap of the declining value of your money, while earning money from helping others at the same time.

Business Owner

This is on the right hand side of the quadrant where money is working for you. It is often referred to as passive income. This is where you set something up, and with a little work up front, it pays you over and over again. 

Network marketing is an example of a model some companies use. There is a main company and there is a product which you can purchase on a subscription basis. You can then build an organization of distributors and get paid a percentage of their results. This type of income is referred to as passive income. 

You can be on holiday and make money from the efforts of your team. Rather like the affiliate model, you get to own a business without having to set up a brick and mortar structure and all the tools are provided, so you can work from home or anywhere there is an internet connection, hence the term, the laptop lifestyle.

A key difference is that network marketing income relies heavily on the recruitment of others. Affiliate marketing does not require that.

You may decide to create a traditional local business where you provide employment in the process. You are not an employee in this scenario but oversee the team of workers. The success of your business will depend on a lot of factors beyond the product or service itself.

I recommend Marc Allen’s book called The Millionaire Course published in 2003. In this book he not only describes how to become wealthy, but shares how he built a publishing business with spiritual principles, and put an infrastructure in place that made it difficult for his employees to want to leave as they felt so well cared for. 

This included generous pension plans and profit share bonuses as well as an environment where everyone could be creative and contribute to the company growth

If you don’t wish to deal with people trading the stock markets is another area where you can operate set and forget strategies for passive income, although you can work it manually too if you prefer.

Investor

You can also invest in a company’s growth and get paid dividends over time as it profits. If you choose this path, do learn how investments work, otherwise all you will be doing is speculating and hoping for the best, without proper strategy.

I was quite frugal in my upbringing and my mum taught me about the importance of saving money. I knew nothing about investments though. Let me ask you something. If you took $10 per month and put it into a ‘vehicle’ that returned 8% per month, with compound interest how long would it take to become a millionaire?

I thought it would be over 30 years and when I worked out the answer manually, then in a spreadsheet, I was shocked, and then I cried, because even I could have invested $10 per month as a nurse. 

I have since corrected that and planted investment seeds. This is a longer term strategy but an example of how you can work the left and right hand side of the quadrant above

Markethive is an example of an opportunity to invest in the growth of the company. Currently you can buy something called an ILP or an initial loan procurement and get paid as the company makes profits. 

Robert Kiyosaki is famous for his book Rich Dad Poor Dad, and teaches financial literacy and wealth so you can thrive rather than just survive. You can read more about the above model in his book Cashflow Quadrant available on Amazon.
 

 

 

 

About: Anita Narayan. (United Kingdom) My life's work is about helping individuals to greater freedom through joy and purpose without self-sabotage, so that inspirational legacy can serve generations to come. Find me at my Markethive Profile Page | My Twitter Account | and my LinkedIn Profile.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tim Moseley

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World Bank outlook for 3 years

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World Bank outlook for 3 years

From Wiki:

The World Bank (WB) is an association of two specialized United Nations (UN) organizations that provide financial and technical assistance to developing countries to reduce poverty and improve living conditions around the world.

Already more than two years ago WB warned that the number of people in poverty could increase by as much as 11 million.
It was supposed the financial shock caused by the pandemic will also have serious effects on poverty, which is defined as an income of less than $ 5.5  per day. The World Bank initially expected the region to lift almost 35 million people out of poverty this year, including more than 25 million in China. 
Five years ago in 2017 there was much more optimism, the overall economical growth was supposed 2,9%. In june 2020 the optimism was away: " World Bank announced: World economy down 5.2% this year due to coronavirus"

In April 2022 the World Bank, based in Washington, has lowered its global growth forecast for 2022 from 4.1% to 3.2%. He points to several problems that have a negative impact on the global economic situation. In addition to the aforementioned inflation and war in Ukraine, the World Bank also sees problems in the progressive isolation of the Chinese market from global trade and the creation of the "Eastern Economic Pact" between China and Russia.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF), part of the World Bank, has cut the UK's economic growth outlook from 4.7% to 3.7%. The global growth forecast was also reduced from 6.1% to 3.6%. The IMF sees the main problem as an inefficient approach to raising interest rates, which on the one hand may slow inflation, but on the other hand will slow down economic growth even more.

NEW WARNINGS
The war in Ukraine will cause high food and energy prices, which will last three years, the World Bank warned on Tuesday last week. Her statement raises fears that the situation will return during the oil crisis in the mid-1970s, when economic growth was weak and inflation was high at the same time.
According to the World Bank's dark outlook, persistently high commodity prices lasting until the end of 2024 could lead to so-called stagflation, a dangerous combination of high inflation coupled with meager economic growth.

This year, the bank expects energy prices to rise by 50 percent, with the price of North Sea Brent crude being around $ 100 a barrel, the highest since 2013. Compared to 2021, it has risen by 40 percent. In 2023, Brent oil prices are expected to fall to $ 92 a barrel, but that is still more than the five-year average of $ 60.

According to the World Bank, the price of gas will double this year compared to 2021, and the price of coal will be 80 percent higher.

The price of wheat will rise by more than 40 percent this year, which will have a severe impact on developing countries that are dependent on grain exports from Ukraine and Russia.
The World Bank's economic outlook for commodities shows that energy prices have risen the most in the last two years since the oil crisis erupted in 1973. Fertilizer prices have risen the most since 2008. Although the bank says energy and other commodity prices will fall from current highs, they are expected to remain above the current average. They will be above average until the end of 2024, including the previous two years, ie a total of five years.

The question remains to what extent these predictions are reliable. Many experts are more pessimistic and the development of some prices in the first months of this year is alarming.

We can only hope that there will be no significant deterioration and that we will recover from this situation strengthened.

                         Thanks for reading

                                                                     Margaret

Tim Moseley

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Inflation in European Union

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Inflation in European Union

The annual inflation rate in the European Union (comparing same month of the year 2021 to this year) rose to a record 7.8 percent in March from 6.2 percent in February. This was announced by the European statistical office Eurostat. The Czech Republic had the third highest inflation in the EU, at 11.9 percent.
Inflation in the euro area is now well above the European Central Bank's 2% target. Upward it is pushed especially by the rising energy. In March, energy prices in the euro area increased by 44.4 percent year-on-year.

The highest inflation in the EU was recorded in Lithuania, where consumer prices increased by 15.6 percent year-on-year. Second place went to Estonia with inflation of 14.8 percent. Czechia takes third place.

In an interview with the BBC,   the president of the World Bank, David Malpass said that war in Ukraine will make food more expensive by up to 37 percent, and the looming food crisis will cause human catastrophe in many poorer countries. Hundreds of millions of people are at risk of poverty and malnutrition if the crisis is not stopped.
The head of the World Bank warned that there is enough food for everyone in the world, and according to comparisons with the situation in the past, there are also high food stocks. But there is a need to change the way food is distributed to get where it is needed.

Here some examples of prices how it is influencing Czech Republic:
prices gasoline and diesel January 2022 were at petrol stations in the Czech Republic for an average of CZK 36.20,(approx 1,68 USD/liter) . But beginning of April gasoline was approx 2,27 USD/liter which means 38 % more  – this influences of course also the prices of public transport and transport of goods  – 22% up.
Foods – flour 63% more expensive than a year ago which has of course big influence on prices of bakery products. Butter and milk very similar. Bread – some economists say that in the second half of this year 1kg of bread can be even 70 CZK/3,10 USD – that might be increse by 40-50% in comparison with the price now.

This price development is supported by the fact that Czech government is inactive and does not want to do anything against this development arguing it is against rules of Europen Union – while for instance Polish government  decreased the VAT on foods.

This graf shows average prices of electricity in capital Praha – New year 2021 compared to New year 2022 = growth 48,49 %

The complicated situation applies also on enterprises
More than half of domestic enterprises expect their energy inputs to become more expensive by 50 percent or more. At the same time, the vast majority of companies will increase the prices of other cost items, such as input materials. This follows from the survey of the Chamber of Commerce. The most acute situation is in the manufacturing industry and construction.
A few days ago was published that inflation in Czech republic now is near to 13% – and if government will not do anything against it will still grow most probably.

But not every state in Europe has the same aproach – for instance Hungary  – The Hungarian government since 1. February  reduced prices for wheat flour, sugar, sunflower oil, milk, pork  and chicken breasts.

Evidently member states of European Union have different approach to the inflation, some politicians have more courage and the development this year might be still quite wild.

                            Thank you for reading

                                                                Margaret

 

Tim Moseley