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Gold silver rally as Federal Reserve leans surprisingly easy

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Gold, silver rally as Federal Reserve leans surprisingly easy

Gold and silver prices sharply up in midday U.S. trading Thursday, in the aftermath of surprisingly dovish rhetoric on U.S. monetary policy from the Federal Reserve. February gold was last up $56.50 at $2,054.00. March silver was last up $1.579 at $24.505. (Gold and silver futures prices had officially settled before the FOMC meeting concluded Wednesday afternoon. Thus, the big gains noted in today's prices.)

The marketplace got a dovish surprise from the Federal Reserve Wednesday. While the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) left interest rates unchanged, the committee and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell pivoted from their heretofore hawkish rhetoric of a tight monetary policy and toward loosening policy, including future interest rate cuts. The Fed's "dot plots" now indicate three interest rate cuts (totaling 0.75%) in 2024. Markets cheered the Fed news as the U.S. stock indexes hit new highs for the year, gold prices soared back above $2,000, the U.S. dollar index dropped sharply and Treasury yields declined. The benchmark 10-year note yield dropped below 4%. The now much-improved risk appetite in the general marketplace should work to support further gains in equities and commodity markets for at least the near term. A Barrons headline today reads: "Markets rejoice as Fed doves take flight…."

The Bank of England kept its monetary policy steady at its regular meeting Thursday, as expected. The European Central Bank also kept its policy steady, but ECB President Christine Lagarde still sounded a hawkish tone in her press conference.

A stronger-than-expected U.S. retail sales report this morning did not support the Fed's monetary-policy-easing rhetoric Wednesday afternoon, and that likely helped to push gold and silver prices down from their daily highs.

  Fed's Powell confirms FOMC believes terminal rate has been reached, says outlook reflects latest CPI and PPI data

U.S. stock index futures are firmer at midday and hit new contract highs and new highs for the year, when the New York day session begins. The Dow Jones Industrial Average set a record-high today.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index sharply lower and hit a four-month low, on follow-through selling pressure from Wednesday's sharp losses. Nymex crude oil prices are solidly up and trading around $72.00 a barrel, after hitting a 5.5-month low Wednesday. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 3.908%.

Technically, February gold futures prices Wednesday scored a bullish "outside day" up after hitting a three-week low early on. The bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and have regained strength. Prices are in a nine-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $2,100.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $2,000.00. First resistance is seen at today's high of $2,062.90 and then at $2,072.70. First support is seen at today's low of $2,039.10 and then at $2,025.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

March silver futures prices Wednesday scored a big and bullish "outside day" up after hitting a three-week low early on today. The silver bulls have gained the overall near-term technical advantage and have regained power. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $26.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at this week's low of $22.785. First resistance is seen at $24.75 and then at $25.00. Next support is seen at $24.00 and then at $23.75. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

March N.Y. copper closed up 1,060 points at 389.35 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. The copper bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and gained power today. Prices are in a choppy, seven-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the July high of 404.45 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the December low of 372.90 cents. First resistance is seen at today's high of 390.95 cents and then at the December high of 393.30 cents. First support is seen at 385.00 cents and then at today's low of 382.70 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5..

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Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

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FOMC statement leans dovish gold price rallies

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FOMC statement leans dovish, gold price rallies

Gold and silver prices aare solidly higher and hit new daily highs in the aftermath of the Fed's FOMC meeting conclusion. The FOMC statement was surprisingly dovish on U.S. monetary policy, which pushed the precious metals markets sharply up. February gold was last up $26.60 at $2,020.10. March silver was last up $0.434 at $23.425.

On the front burner of the marketplace is the just-concluded two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting of the Federal Reserve. The FOMC statement said U.S. economic growth has moderated but inflation remains elevated. Most FOMC officials now see rate cuts coming in 2024. 2025 and 2026. The marketplace is reading the FOMC statement as being surprisingly dovish on U.S. monetary policy. Now the marketplace awaits the press conference from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. It's still expected Powell may lean at least a bit hawkish by saying the inflation fight is not yet finished.

This week's U.S. inflation data in the form of the consumer price and producer price indexes for November came in close to market expectations and suggest U.S. inflation continues to cool. The data somewhat assuaged the marketplace, at least for the moment, as the U.S. stock indexes this week hit new for-the-move highs amid a seasonal Santa Claus rally.

  Gold to outperform silver and platinum as weak growth forces the Fed to cut rates in 2024 – Heraeus

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower and selling off after the FOMC statement. Nymex crude oil prices are up and trading around $69.75 a barrel after hitting a 5.5-month low overnight. The down-trending crude oil market is casting a pall over much of the raw commodity sector. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.092% and down from just before the FOMC statement was released.

Technically, February gold futures prices hit a three-week early on low today. The bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but regained some momentum today. Prices are in a two-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $2,050.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the November low of $1,955.40. First resistance is seen at this week's high of $2,023.70 and then at the October high of $2,039.70. First support is seen at $2,000.00 and then at today's low of $1,987.90. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

March silver futures prices hit a three-week low early on today. The silver bears have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are now trending down on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $24.50. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the October low of $21.17. First resistance is seen at $23.75 and then at $24.00. Next support is seen at $23.00 and then at today's low of $22.785. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

March N.Y. copper closed down 30 points at 378.45 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. The copper bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a choppy, seven-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the December high of 393.30 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the November low of 362.60 cents. First resistance is seen at this week's high of 383.60 cents and then at last Friday's high of 386.40 cents. First support is seen at today's low of 375.30 cents and then at last week's low of 372.90 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

By

Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

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Gold up but loses altitude as FOMC meets

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Gold up, but loses altitude as FOMC meets

Gold prices are modestly higher and silver around steady near midday Tuesday. Both metals modestly extended overnight gains and hit session highs following a morning U.S. inflation report that was in line with expectations. However, prices have backed down from daily highs on position evening as the U.S. central bank will provide an update on its monetary policy Wednesday afternoon. Solidly lower crude oil prices are also a bearish daily outside-market element for the metals. February gold was last up $3.50 at $1,997.10. March silver was last down $0.008 at $23.05.

The U.S. economic data point of the day saw the consumer price index report for November come in at up 3.1%, with the core rate (minus food and energy) coming in at up 4.0%. Both figures are year-on-year and are the same readings as seen in the October report. The November year-on-year numbers came in right in line with market expectations. The modest rallies in gold and silver following the CPI data suggest traders were relieved inflation did not uptick in November. Recent economic data from the world's major economies has generally shown cooling inflation.

Focus is now squarely on the two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting of the Federal Reserve begins today and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement and press conference from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. The marketplace consensus is that the FOMC will leave interest rates unchanged. However, it's also expected the FOMC statement and Powell at his press conference will still lean a bit hawkish by saying the inflation fight is not yet finished. Still, many market watchers expect the Fed to cut U.S. interest rates by mid-year in 2024.

  Gold is poised for new all-time highs in 2024 – World Gold Council

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker. Nymex crude oil prices are solidly down, near the recent for-the-move low, and trading around $69.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.227%.

Technically, February gold futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a two-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $2,075.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the November low of $1,955.40. First resistance is seen at today's high of $2,012.50 and then at this week's high of $2,023.70. First support is seen at this week's low of $1,991.20 and then at $1,975.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

March silver futures bears have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are now trending down on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $24.50. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the October low of $21.17. First resistance is seen at today's high of $23.45 and then at $23.75. Next support is seen at $23.00 and then at $22.75. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

March N.Y. copper closed up 115 points at 379.20 cents today. Prices closed near mid-range today. The copper bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a choppy, seven-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the December high of 393.30 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the November low of 362.60 cents. First resistance is seen at this week's high of 383.60 cents and then at Friday's high of 386.40 cents. First support is seen at today's low of 376.65 cents and then at last week's low of 372.90 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

Try out my "Markets Front Burner" email report. My next one is due out today and is going to be entitled, "When China sneezes…" Front Burner is my best writing and analysis, I think, because I get to look ahead at the marketplace and do some market price forecasting. And it's free! Sign up to my new, free weekly Markets Front Burner newsletter, at https://www.kitco.com/services/markets-front-burner.html .

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Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

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Markethive’s Contribution to the Cause

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6 Steps To Unlocking Crypto's Full Potential: Markethive's Contribution to the Cause.

Although Bitcoin has existed for 15 years, the crypto industry is considered relatively nascent, and it’s frequently stated as still in the early days, meaning that many coins and tokens still have huge potential. Many believe this is somewhat underestimated. In perspective, the total market cap of stocks is $90 trillion, the total market cap of precious metals is $15 trillion, and just the US Dollar is over $20 trillion. The total market cap of crypto is only around $1 trillion, and considering some coins and tokens could someday become serious competitors to stocks, metals, or even national currencies means that crypto still has unprecedented potential. 

This article explores the six steps to achieving crypto’s full potential, how it will achieve this potential, what entities are moving forward, and how significant the returns could be. We’ll look at where we’ve come from and where we are heading and discover the critical component that brings this whole approach together. 


Image source: Finoa.io

Awareness and Education

The first step to achieving crypto's full potential is awareness and education because crypto can only receive investment or achieve adoption if people know about it. It can only receive investment or achieve adoption if people understand how it works and its value. Awareness of and education about crypto needs to be improved, as most of the attention either comes from mainstream media, arguably biased and aligned with the financial establishment, or from misleading advertisements, promotions, and partnerships, often from explicitly pro-crypto entities. 

Much of the education has also come from questionable sources, with most media outlets and influences pushing content purely to get clicks or token allocations. The result is that there is a general shortage of quality information about crypto, but this is improving. People are looking for quality information about crypto, and it’s increasing.

Another reason there’s been a lack of genuine education in crypto until now is that it's often more profitable to do other kinds of crypto content in the short term. It has given cryptocurrency an unfavorable reputation and is especially tough for those genuinely trying to educate others, but this seems to be slowly improving, too.

Some crypto content creators and influencers have taken shortcuts, finding themselves under the scrutiny of the SEC, while other countries have recently enforced strict regulations around crypto marketing.  As concerning as some of these regulations are, they are arguably necessary to ensure that the next wave of crypto content creators and influencers focus on crypto content with long-term value. 

Markethive, an entrepreneurial ecosystem, is a platform at the forefront of this shift as a next-gen crypto media outlet that champions free speech, focusing on genuine crypto content and education. The overall crypto landscape is at the beginning stages. Still, by the time the next crypto bull market hits, the quality of crypto awareness and education will be much higher than it has been, which will set the stage for crypto to reach its full potential. 

Crypto Regulation 

The second step to achieving crypto's full potential is regulation. It ties into the first step because regulators must know about crypto to write reasonable regulations. Institutional investors also need to be aware of and educated about these regulations. As we've seen, regulators worldwide are both aware of and educated about crypto for the most part. This is fortunate or unfortunate, depending on the jurisdiction in question. 

It's becoming clear that some are pushing for pro-crypto regulations while others are pushing for anti-crypto regulations. Believe it or not, any crypto regulation will benefit the crypto market if it doesn't involve an outright ban. This is just because investors, notably institutions, will finally have some guidance about what they can and can't do with crypto in their country. And once these investors and institutions get involved, you can bet that they will lobby to improve crypto regulations to suit their needs better. 

The crypto industry has already been lobbying but with mixed results. By contrast, Fidelity privately lobbied the SEC to approve a spot Bitcoin ETF in September 2021. For context, Fidelity is one of the largest asset managers in the world. It was arguing with an anti-crypto regulator behind closed doors, which is highly bullish. 

In retrospect, it's possible that Fidelity's lobbying is why Black Rock became encouraged to file for a spot Bitcoin ETF in June 2023. More importantly, Fidelity's past lobbying and Black Rock’s present SEC filing suggest that these lobbying efforts will only increase. This will ultimately be a net benefit to the crypto market. 

Institutional Investment

The third step to achieving crypto's full potential is investment from institutions and high-net-worth individuals. Of course, these entities hold most of the world's wealth. This is a consequence of having currencies whose supply is manipulated by people in power. Like all investors, institutions and high-net-worth individuals ultimately want to maximize their returns. As it happens, Bitcoin’s BTC is estimated to be the best-performing asset of all time, from an initial price of $0.09 to all-time highs of over. $69K, BTC has pulled a 760,000X return. 


Image source: Bitcoin’s Price History

Like all assets with such high returns, BTC’s returns will likely diminish over time, but it will still ostensibly outperform most other assets for the foreseeable future. This fundamentally depends on how much BTC we'll see in inflows. Although this is impossible to predict, there is one benchmark to remember; 

BTC is considered by many investors, including Black Rock, to be digital gold. As a result, it's generally believed that BTC’s market cap will someday be similar to that of gold. Now, gold's market cap currently sits at around $13 trillion. BTC's market cap is currently sitting at approximately $500 billion. So, BTC catching up to gold would mean a 26X increase in its price. This would translate to a BTC price of around $670,000. 
 
Interestingly, BTC’s peak price of $69K put its market cap at around $1.3 trillion, around 10% of gold's total market cap. This assumes that BTC is analogous to digital gold. Some have argued that BTC has additional value since Bitcoin is technically the most secure network in the world. It makes it the ideal base for other ecosystems, including payments, which the likes of the Lightning Network can support. On the topic of payment networks, smart contract cryptocurrencies are the ones that will capture this market share. It means that they could someday displace payment processors and other financial intermediaries. 

The total market cap of these financial intermediaries is over $2 trillion. Given that the market cap of Ethereum’s ETH is currently around $200 billion, matching analogous companies would mean a 10X increase in price. It translates to an ETH price of over $15K, but this likewise assumes that Ethereum is just a payments network; it is obviously much more than that. As such, one could argue that Ethereum is still near the beginning of its adoption curve. 

Crypto Adoption

The fourth step to achieving crypto's full potential is adoption. For reference, it's estimated that less than 5% of the world currently holds crypto. This implies that should more people choose to hold crypto, its price should have excellent upside potential. However, holding crypto is not the same as using crypto. Holding it constitutes investment effectively, whereas using it is actual adoption. 

On-chain data for the largest cryptos suggests there are only a few million daily users, a mere fraction of the world's population. Therefore, potential gains are even more significant than expected by merely extrapolating hodlers. For those unfamiliar, there are ultimately three reasons why people adopt crypto. The first is for profit, the second is for fun, which is very much intertwined with the first reason, and the third is out of necessity. This third reason has resulted in most of the actual crypto adoption. 

For example, 50% of Nigeria's population uses crypto daily, primarily because the government can't be trusted. This phenomenon is not unique to Nigeria; it's an accelerating trend worldwide. Considering that most central banks are currently rolling out Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), it becomes easy to imagine a world where the average person starts looking for alternatives to a digital currency controlled by institutions they don't trust. 

The demand for such alternatives is already increasing among some governments. The so-called Global South is looking to move away from the US dollar, and some reports suggest that crypto could be a part of their escape plan. Some countries already use crypto for international trade, and Russia is considering mining its own crypto. 

So, just like the adoption process at the individual level, the adoption process at the national level will eventually involve nations and national activities. Using crypto for things like international trade will become more accessible to the average country. At the same time, the tendency to weaponize fiat currencies will be increasing, and this will increase the demand for credibly neutral currencies. Decentralized cryptos like BTC could play a key role. 

Crypto Innovation

Crypto Adoption will ultimately depend on the progress of crypto innovation, the fifth step to achieving crypto’s full potential, particularly around user experience and privacy. Logically, it will be hard for individuals and institutions to adopt crypto in any meaningful way if they need to struggle with hardware wallets. 


Image source: Coursera.org

Significant developments have been on this front, the most notable of which is the gradual merging between hardware and software. It might sound bizarre, but a crypto phone like Solana Saga could solve crypto wallet User Interface (UI) and User Experience (UX). It's not just wallets, either. A lot of innovation is happening at the blockchain level. 

For instance, Ethereum’s EIP 4337 upgrade from earlier this year will allow any phone to have crypto phone-type properties, mainly hardware wallet-level security. It will also make it possible to create dApps with no gas fees or, rather, dApps where the user doesn't have to pay the gas fee. 

Constantly checking and accounting for transaction fees is another considerable hurdle to crypto adoption, which many crypto projects attempt to overcome. This will require entirely new approaches, such as charging crypto users monthly subscription fees to use a blockchain rather than charging them for every individual transaction. Of course, some of these approaches will require entirely new types of hardware, like more interactive hardware wallets.

Crypto Privacy

Crypto privacy is another niche to watch out for. Privacy in crypto has been a touchy subject. In one respect, crypto transparency is a huge advantage. At the same time, some degree of privacy is required for financial freedom, and high-net-worth individuals demand it. When it comes to the incessant third hand of government, there's a desire to exploit crypto’s transparency to track transactions and label any crypto privacy attempts as inherently encouraging criminality. 

For the crypto industry, balancing transparency with privacy presents a challenging problem. Zero-knowledge proofs have emerged as one potential solution to this problem, but they come with other problems. The primary one is ensuring that these zero-knowledge technologies don't have secret back doors. Thankfully, this is an issue that can be addressed.


Image Source: Developers:Circle.com

Regardless, the problem of balancing transparency with privacy is closely related to the problem of identity. Countries are pushing for digital IDs, and global regulators want to see these digital IDs integrated with cryptocurrency. The crypto industry has been working on its own supposedly decentralized digital ID solutions; however, these digital ID Solutions are just as centralized as the ones from governments. What's needed is a truly decentralized digital ID. 

There haven’t been any significant developments yet; however, the innovations around wallets and privacy continue rapidly and should be in place by the time the next crypto bull market comes around. This will further facilitate crypto investment and adoption at individual and institutional levels. 

Decentralization

Cryptocurrency's final step to achieve its full potential is complete decentralization. Without decentralization, everything that I just mentioned is off the table. That's because if crypto is centralized, it can be controlled, and if it can be controlled, it'll end up like our existing systems—news flash: Crypto's entire purpose is to replace our current systems with something better, starting with our monetary and financial systems. Naturally, the technology that underlies crypto is compelling. The only way it won't fall into the wrong hands is if it's genuinely decentralized. 

This article illustrates that decentralization means more than having many validators or miners. It means having a decentralized developer base, a decentralized coin or token distribution, a decentralized infrastructure layer, and a decentralized blockchain. Ultimately, this also means having a truly decentralized internet. 

Luckily, the Internet is somewhat decentralized and will likely become more decentralized as peer-to-peer Internet crypto projects like Helium see more investment and adoption. This also pertains to Markethive as it strives to decouple from all centralized entities prevailing as a tour de force in its next-gen social market broadcasting media niche. This adoption is necessary due to internet censorship. 

Currently, most cryptocurrencies are arguably not decentralized enough to evade control. It stands to reason, then, that these cryptocurrencies will not be the ones that make it. In other words, if you hold centralized cryptos, you're not early; you're late, very late. That said, this depends on whether the centralized cryptos you currently hold can become decentralized. To figure this out, you must ask one question: Is this crypto capable of building its own infrastructure and ecosystem without relying on a single set of individuals or institutions? 


Image Source: X – The DeFi Edge

Crypto Funding

The answer for most cryptos is no; however, that's not entirely their fault. One perspective is that one of the primary reasons why so many cryptos are so centralized is because of funding. Early investors in crypto projects want to see returns and often try to control the project to that end. This incentivizes crypto projects to cut corners on decentralization to ensure their investors are quickly rewarded. As we've seen, these so-called VC coins have seen the most aggressive pump-and-dump cycles, and most of them probably won't last past the next crypto cycle. 

The silver lining to this situation is that it fully displays the solution to the crypto centralization problem. The crypto industry needs to find a way to fund crypto projects in a more decentralized manner. 


Image by Markethive.com

Decentralization of Social Market Networks

Markethive is the ecosystem for entrepreneurs and a crypto project with the solution to top-level control issues, whether it be funding or the systems driving it. It is a decentralized, limited AI-secured rating and reputation system that is self-policing and a Human Intelligence (HI) that fosters a healthy level of meritocratic interaction. The community solely funds it with no prominent venture capitalists. The people are building it; it is of the people and for the people, so the community will profit, sharing the prosperity and abundance of every level of humanity.

It also creates a breeding ground for positive, creative, and beneficial content in which people's minds are prompted toward positive growth and critical thinking. Markethive is beyond its crypto wallet and Hivecoin release milestones, disengaging unreliable APIs and implementing multiple servers in preparation for its mining hives that give peace of mind—making it an impenetrable fortress against what has become a jungle, and a cesspool of fraud, scams, data harvesting, political bias, and dystopia. 

This divinely inspired project is all part of the Web 3 or 3rd generation Internet, which has emerged as a movement away from the centralization of services. Markethive is here for the rank and file with entrepreneurial aspirations at little to no cost to join. The all-encompassing social market broadcasting network delivers financial sovereignty, freedom of expression, privacy, and autonomy. We have entered into the much-needed world of decentralization, where the cancel culture is no longer an existential threat.  

At the time of writing this article, we are perfectly positioned to take advantage of the opportunities that are coming. Markethive, with its Hivecoin (HVC), will be poised for the next crypto bull run and participate in the facilitation of crypto achieving its full potential, where we’ll see HVC firmly established as a coin with purpose and utility in the free market. Do you want to be part of the decentralization revolution? Today, become an ‘Entrepreneur One’ and reap the rewards of Markethive’s ILP and revenue returns.  

May God bless and uphold you for all eternity…

 

Tim Moseley

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Gold silver down amid bearish daily outside markets

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Gold, silver down amid bearish daily outside markets

Gold and silver prices are down near midday U.S. trading Monday. A firmer U.S. dollar index and a slight rise in U.S. Treasury yields to start the trading week are bearish outside market forces for the metals markets. Both metals have also seen their near-term chart postures deteriorate recently, especially in silver. That’s inviting fresh technical selling. Gold and silver bulls are hoping for some friendlier fundamental news with this week’s batch of important economic data. February gold was last down $16.20 at $1,998.20. March silver was last down $0.226 at $23.04.

U.S. stock indexes are slightly up near midday. It’s a quieter start to the trading week, but at mid-week the Federal Reserve will announce its latest monetary policy meeting (FOMC) results. Key U.S. inflation data is also due out this week. The European Central Bank holds its regular monetary policy meeting Thursday.

Traders this week will also keep a closer eye on big U.S. Treasury bond and note auctions on Monday and Tuesday. The U.S. government will sell over $20 trillion of its debt this year. Some market watchers wonder how much longer the U.S. can keep selling more and more of its debt to the marketplace, without serious disruption.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher. Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $71.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.26%.

Technically, February gold futures prices hit a three-week low today. The bulls still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but are fading fast. Prices are still in a two-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $2,075.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the November low of $1,955.40. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $2,023.70 and then at the October high of $2,039.70. First support is seen at $1,990.00 and then at $1,975.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

March silver futures prices hit a three-week low today. The silver bulls have lost their overall near-term technical advantage. A two-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $25.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the October low of $21.17. First resistance is seen at $23.50 and then at $24.00. Next support is seen at $23.00 and then at $22.75. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

March N.Y. copper closed down 385 points at 379.20 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The copper bulls still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a seven-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the December high of 393.30 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the November low of 362.60 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 383.60 cents and then at Friday’s high of 386.40 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 377.55 cents and then at last week’s low of 372.90 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

By

Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Contact jwyckoff@kitco.com

www.kitco.com

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

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Understanding and Identifying the Different Types of Cryptocurrencies is a Must for Sound Investing

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Understanding and Identifying the Different Types of Cryptocurrencies is a Must for Sound Investing

The value of cryptocurrencies is a question that has likely been posed to you before and perhaps that you have also wondered about. The answer varies depending on the specific crypto coin or token being discussed. With over 11,000 cryptocurrencies in existence, each one has its purpose or intended use case that adds to its value. However, it is essential to note that not all cryptocurrencies are currently active or hold value. By disregarding the many "dead" cryptos, we are left with approximately 8,000 active cryptocurrencies.

Most cryptocurrencies can be grouped into various categories, including those that serve as a means of storing value, facilitating smart contracts, providing oracle services, enabling payments, ensuring privacy, acting as exchange tokens, and even serving meme coins. 

Identifying the category a cryptocurrency belongs to when investing in the crypto market is crucial. This is because each category has its advantages and disadvantages, and they tend to experience different patterns of price surges and declines during a bull market. This guide provides an overview of the different types of cryptocurrencies and offers insights on how to leverage this information to optimize your investment strategy and mitigate potential losses.


Image source: Business Today

Store Of Value Cryptos

Cryptocurrencies that fall under the store of value category are intended to maintain or enhance their buying power as time passes. Although there is usually a gradual rise in their price over time, it is important to note that price and purchasing power are two different concepts.

Traditional currencies lose about 2% to 3% of their purchasing power yearly due to governments printing more money to stimulate economic growth. Therefore, if you invested in a stock that increased by 23% last year, the actual purchasing power of that stock remains the same despite the increase in its dollar value.

The government's excessive money printing diminishes its value, which is why cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin were created. Bitcoin, launched in 2009, reacted to the 2008 financial crisis and the subsequent government money printing. It's the only cryptocurrency that fits the store-of-value category, although some argue that others, like Litecoin, also qualify. Litecoin is also known as silver to Bitcoin’s gold.

Bitcoin differentiates itself from traditional currencies by having a limited supply of 21 million BTC, in contrast to conventional currencies, which are subject to continuous printing and subsequent devaluation. This 21 million BTC is created gradually, thanks to miners who solve intricate equations to facilitate transactions on the Bitcoin blockchain and are rewarded with BTC.

A decentralized payment network has been established by allowing anyone to mine Bitcoin and receive BTC as a reward for processing transactions. This network comprises millions of computers located worldwide. The presence of economic incentives makes Bitcoin the most secure payment network globally. It cannot be shut down by targeting a single location.

Although Bitcoin was initially intended to function as a form of virtual currency, its economic characteristics and the relatively slow speed of its transactions have resulted in it being more comparable to digital gold than digital cash. Within the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin holds the highest market capitalization, and the price of Bitcoin influences the prices of almost all other cryptocurrencies. 

If Bitcoin's value experiences a sharp decline, it also leads to a decline in the value of other cryptocurrencies. Conversely, if Bitcoin's price remains stable or gradually increases, it increases the value of other cryptocurrencies. Furthermore, if Bitcoin experiences a significant surge in value, it outperforms other cryptocurrencies by a substantial margin. The ongoing fluctuations in Bitcoin's dominance can be observed in real-time through the Bitcoin dominance chart.

The main benefit of store-of-value cryptocurrencies is that they tend to be less risky investments than other cryptocurrencies and have a higher potential to appreciate in value over time. However, the critical factor determining their success is a fair launch, where a community of miners collectively starts mining the cryptocurrency from the beginning. 

Many store-of-value cryptocurrencies have been pre-mined, where the development team and private investors hold a significant portion of the supply, which can lead to centralization and decreased trust in the network. To verify if a store of value cryptocurrency is genuinely decentralized, you can check its supply distribution using a Blockchain Explorer. Bitcoin and Litecoin are examples of store-of-value cryptocurrencies with relatively equitable supply distributions.

One major drawback of cryptocurrencies that serve as stores of value is their lack of extensive features. This is why some individuals compare Bitcoin to a pet rock. These types of cryptos primarily focus on preserving purchasing power and facilitating peer-to-peer transactions without intermediaries. The limited functionality of store-of-value cryptocurrencies is why many individuals anticipate that Bitcoin will eventually lose its position as the most prominent cryptocurrency in market capitalization. The crypto that surpasses Bitcoin is expected to emerge from the second category.

Smart Contracts Cryptos

Smart contract cryptos, which belong to the second category of cryptocurrencies, are specifically created to be programmable and prioritize functionality over value preservation. The reason this is important is as follows. 

If you are currently viewing this article on either your computer or phone, it means you are utilizing a specific program, whether it be a web browser or a mobile application. The distinguishing feature of the programs you rely on daily is that they are centrally controlled. A major technology company is typically responsible for developing and overseeing these browsers or apps. Additionally, these programs are not particularly secure. There is a risk that an individual could hack or alter the program to gain access to your personal information, finances, identity, and so on.

The influential tech conglomerates and financial institutions are constantly monitoring your digital activities. Whether you're spending, saving, or trading your funds, you must utilize a centralized medium, such as a bank or a brokerage firm. However, cutting-edge smart contract cryptocurrencies present a revolutionary replacement for the digital and financial systems we rely on today. This innovative approach is known as Web3, representing a significant upgrade from the existing Web2 internet.


Image source: globalxetfs.com.au

Smart contracts are self-executing programs that automate specific actions when predefined conditions are met. They can be used to create various cryptocurrency tokens, such as fungible tokens similar to traditional currency or non-fungible tokens that are unique and rare, like a collectible baseball card. What sets smart contracts apart from regular programs is their immutability and decentralization. Once created, smart contracts cannot be modified, and their decentralized nature means they cannot be shut down as they exist on a vast network of computers globally.

A decentralized application (dApp) is formed by merging various smart contracts. These dApps cover a wide range of functions, such as payments, trading, lending, borrowing, and even gambling. Utilizing dApps does not necessitate sharing personal information; all that is required is an internet connection. The most significant advantage of dApps is the absence of intermediaries extracting fees or compromising your data. Transactions within dApps occur directly between individuals, ensuring a level of privacy for your activities. (However, there is one exception to this, which will be elaborated on later.)

Many decentralized applications (dApps) with a significant user base operate on various smart contract-based cryptocurrency platforms, primarily Ethereum and Binance Smart Chain. Also, Solana is very active in this niche. These cryptocurrencies derive value from their utility in facilitating transactions and executing smart contracts rather than solely as a store of value. 

Transaction fees on these networks are paid in the native cryptocurrency of the respective platform, such as ETH for Ethereum, BNB for Binance Smart Chain, and SOL for Solana. To maintain a sufficient supply of cryptocurrency for transaction fees, most smart contract cryptocurrencies do not have a maximum supply. Instead, they implement annual inflation schedules that can range into double digits under certain conditions.

If there are sufficient dApp users purchasing the coin to cover the necessary fees, the act of ‘printing coins’ is typically not an issue. This leads me to the main benefit of smart contract cryptocurrencies: their worth is connected to the scale and acceptance of the dApp and token ecosystems established on their blockchains. Despite Ethereum and the Binance smart chain having only a few million users, ETH and BNB had market capitalizations in the hundreds of billions. And SOL is not far behind them. 

The adoption of smart contract cryptocurrencies could significantly increase market caps for associated coins, reaching trillions of dollars by the end of the decade. However, the main drawback of smart contract cryptos is the uncertainty of which one will emerge as the winner. The competition in this category is fierce, with new projects entering the market regularly. Unless you have the means to invest in all of them, it is crucial to conduct thorough research before making any decisions.


Image source: Researchgate

Oracle Cryptos

Oracle cryptocurrencies facilitate the integration of real-world data into smart contract blockchains, enabling decentralized applications to access and utilize external information. In centralized systems, applications rely on APIs provided by external entities to obtain data such as weather or pricing information. Similarly, smart contracts require access to real-world data to execute practical tasks. This is where Oracle cryptocurrencies come in, providing a decentralized means of sourcing and verifying data for blockchain-based applications.

Oracle cryptocurrencies differ from data feeds like APIs by offering decentralized data feeds. Typically, multiple individuals or institutions will tell an oracle crypto the price of a particular item, and the oracle calculates an average of their responses. Similar to smart contract cryptocurrency coins, oracle crypto tokens are required to pay for the fees to cover the costs of obtaining this data.

Despite Chainlink currently holding the top position and being widely used as an Oracle cryptocurrency, around twelve other Oracle cryptos exist, including Band Protocol and API3. The main benefit of Oracle cryptos lies in the increasing number of smart contract cryptocurrency dApps and users. The demand for their tokens is also expected to rise. However, a significant drawback of these oracle cryptos is that most have allocated substantial portions of their pre-mined token supplies to their teams and private investors.

Consequently, if the prices of these cryptocurrencies increase, it creates a strong motivation for teams and private investors to sell, preventing the price from reaching higher levels. Additionally, many smart contract cryptocurrencies rely on multiple oracles to provide data for their decentralized applications, and specific cryptocurrencies, such as Cardano, have chosen to develop their own decentralized data oracles. As a result, this decreases the demand for any individual Oracle cryptocurrency.


Image source: Howmuch.net

Payment Cryptos

Payment cryptocurrencies, which belong to the third classification of virtual currencies, aim to substitute the existing payment systems currently in use. In some instances, these payment cryptos utilize smart contract technology. If you have ever made an international money transfer, you know its exorbitant costs and sluggishness. For business owners, the substantial fees charged by payment processors such as Visa, Mastercard, and PayPal per transaction are for business owners well known. 

Those who have experienced payment problems are also familiar with the numerous hurdles one must overcome when resolving issues with their bank. Additionally, many of us pay monthly fees simply to maintain a bank account or credit card. Irrespective of the circumstances, whenever money is involved, an intermediary takes a portion, causing delays and introducing complexities to processes that would otherwise be straightforward.

Payment cryptocurrencies enable swift transaction settlements and significantly reduce costs compared to using an antiquated payment network that takes several days to finalize transactions. Furthermore, similar to other cryptocurrencies, you can securely store payment-oriented coins or tokens in your personal wallet, eliminating the need to depend on a bank for fund storage. This also removes concerns regarding unauthorized access to your bank account or restrictions on incoming and outgoing payments.

Cryptocurrencies optimized for payments like Bitcoin Cash, Dash, Telcoin, and Solana have gained popularity due to their sophisticated smart contracts and dApp ecosystems centered around payment systems. These cryptocurrencies boast the highest potential for widespread adoption, targeting the largest and most profitable market globally. 

Dash has already achieved significant usage in Argentina for everyday payments, while Telcoin has made strides in offering affordable remittance services. Solana has been of particular interest in the payments niche as it's becoming clear that its technical capabilities are suitable for these applications. Recently, Visa joined the Solana ecosystem designed to offer high-speed performance, expanding its stablecoin settlement capabilities with the USDC stablecoin and furthering its core business with things like cross-border payments and using crypto for one of its core use cases.

The principal drawback of cryptocurrencies, except for stablecoins, designed for payment purposes, is that it is highly improbable that they will supersede traditional currencies in the near future. This is primarily because the value of these cryptocurrencies is often unstable. Additionally, governments have demonstrated a willingness to intervene and restrict their use for payment purposes.


Image source: Investing.com

Privacy Cryptos

Privacy cryptos, also known as privacy coins, constitute the fourth classification of cryptocurrencies. These types of cryptos aim to safeguard users' privacy during transactions and while utilizing decentralized applications (dApps). It is a common misconception that cryptocurrency transactions are inherently private. However, as mentioned earlier, most cryptocurrency blockchains are publicly accessible, enabling anyone to observe transactions as they occur in real-time. Although an individual's identity is not initially linked to their cryptocurrency wallet address, it is still feasible for others to determine which addresses belong to them.

This holds particularly true if you utilized a platform or trading service that demanded your personal details for buying cryptocurrency. Your identity can readily be associated with your digital wallets in transactions. It is plausible that you are perfectly fine with this and believe that all transactions should be completely open and confirmable by anyone. However, companies and affluent individuals hold a contrasting viewpoint. The very last thing they desire is for others to see the extent of wealth stored in their cryptocurrency wallets.

Furthermore, as an individual utilizing cryptocurrency dApps, it is highly likely that you desire a high level of privacy for your data. Privacy cryptocurrencies aim to tackle these concerns and come in various forms and options. For instance, Secret Network enables the development of dApps that prioritize privacy.

Specific cryptocurrencies, like Monaro and Zcash, prioritize confidential transactions and employ top-notch privacy mechanisms that are supposedly impervious to government surveillance. Another privacy-focused cryptocurrency, Haven Protocol, takes it a step further by enabling the generation of virtual fiat currencies, cryptocurrencies, and precious metals, thereby creating a virtually untraceable offshore bank account.

Privacy cryptocurrencies have a significant edge due to their robust design and durable structure. Most have had a fair and transparent launch without any pre-mining or favoritism towards private investors. Using Monero's XMR coin as an illustration, it shares similar store of value properties with BTC and can be transacted as quickly and as cheaply as most payment cryptocurrencies.

Monero also employs a unique mining algorithm known as RandomX, which prevents specialized computers from mining XMR. This feature enhances Monero's decentralization by allowing anyone to participate in mining XMR.

One of the main drawbacks of privacy cryptocurrencies is that regulators often single them out due to their association with illegal activities, or at least that is the primary reason given. Consequently, privacy coins are frequently removed from cryptocurrency exchanges, making them difficult to obtain and hindering their potential for price appreciation.

Decentralized exchanges like THORChain provide a means to trade privacy-focused cryptocurrencies, such as Monero and Haven, without relying on a centralized platform. Notably, some privacy-centric cryptocurrencies have been developed with regulatory compliance in mind, allowing users to demonstrate their wallet balance and transaction history to regulatory authorities upon request, thanks to sophisticated cryptographic techniques.


Image source: Binance Square

Exchange Tokens

Cryptocurrencies, known as exchange tokens, fall into the fifth category. These tokens are owned and controlled by the cryptocurrency exchanges they are associated with. Exchange tokens can be seen as a mix of a membership subscription and company shares. Similar to a subscription, they offer various benefits, such as discounts on trading fees and exclusive access to early coin and token sales. However, like company stock, the value of exchange tokens is influenced by the popularity of the exchange they are connected to.

The reason for this is that nearly all exchanges buy back and burn a portion of their circulating exchange tokens using a fraction of the trading fees they collect. Buying back raises the price, while the burn reduces the overall supply, resulting in a cryptocurrency token that appreciates in worth as time passes. Additionally, certain exchanges like Binance have developed smart contract cryptocurrency networks that necessitate using their exchange tokens, creating an additional source of demand for these tokens.

The main benefit of exchange tokens is their strong potential for price appreciation. On the other hand, exchange tokens have a slower growth rate than other cryptocurrencies, nor are they guaranteed. As the influence of cryptocurrency exchanges continues to grow, regulators are gradually beginning to resist. It has been observed that a single unfavorable announcement regarding an exchange can result in a significant decline in its token value.

Meme Coins

Another type of cryptocurrency is meme coins. These digital currencies often lack a clear purpose or practical application, and their main appeal is based on hype and the promise of financial gain. In reality, if someone tried to sell you on the idea of becoming a millionaire by investing a few hundred dollars, you'd likely recognize it as a dubious proposition.

Interestingly, this apparent impossibility inexplicably becomes achievable when the identical concept is expressed for cryptocurrency. This could be attributed to the fact that novice cryptocurrency investors may not comprehend the connection between a meme coin's market capitalization, supply, and value in dollars. For instance, a single Shiba Inu token is priced at approximately 1/1000th of a cent. Without considering the market capitalization, one might think that if they invest a mere few hundred dollars into Shiba and its value rises to one dollar, they would become multi-millionaires.


Screenshot: Coingecko

The primary challenge with Shiba Inu's valuation is that its market capitalization is already in the billions, owing to its considerable circulating supply of 590 trillion and maximum supply of over 999 trillion, even after factoring in perpetual burns. Consequently, for Shiba Inu's price to reach $1, it would require an investment of over four times the total amount of money in existence, which seems unrealistic.

A large number of the meme coins that have emerged in recent months share a common characteristic: they have enormous supplies, which makes it unlikely that they will reach a value of one dollar in the near future. If you are considering the possibility that these coins have deflationary properties or unique economic mechanisms that will drive up their price, take a moment to reflect on the true purpose and potential outcome of these meme coins.

A common viewpoint is that none of these meme coins genuinely intend to provide useful functions for their community. The main objective behind most meme coins is to benefit their creators financially. While some individuals may choose to take a chance on them, the risk often outweighs the potential benefits.

Having said that, due to its unique origins and features, Dogecoin stands out among other meme coins. It was created as a lighthearted joke, and its survival during the last bear market can be attributed to its ability to be 'merged mined' with Litecoin at no extra cost.

Meme coins may provide an opportunity for rapid profit, but their volatility means the potential for loss is equally high. The unpredictability of pump and dump schemes makes it challenging to turn a profit, as the likelihood of being left with losses when the dust settles is significant. Meme coins are notoriously susceptible to manipulation and are the most manipulated cryptocurrencies on the market, with their prices often being artificially inflated and then suddenly collapsing. It makes the price manipulation of Bitcoin seem insignificant in comparison.


Image: Markethive

In Closing

Grasping the various forms of cryptocurrency and their potential applications is crucial. Projects that have pioneered a specific field, offering genuine utility to the broader community, have a distinct edge. By continuously adapting and staying up-to-date with technology, being a first mover enables a project to gain a significant portion of the market and avoid the negative consequences of oversaturation.

In terms of being a pioneer, Markethive belongs to the category of first movers, offering a wide range of practical applications. This raises the question of where Hivecoin (HVC) fits in among other cryptocurrencies. All of this and more will be disclosed in the upcoming article.

This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

 

 

Editor and Chief Markethive: Deb Williams. (Australia) I thrive on progress and champion freedom of speech.  I embrace "Change" with a passion, and my purpose in life is to enlighten people to accept and move forward with enthusiasm. Find me at my Markethive Profile Page | My Twitter Account | and my LinkedIn Profile.

 

 

 

 

Tim Moseley

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Affiliate Marketing in 2024: Trends to Watch and How to Prepare

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Affiliate Marketing in 2024: Trends to Watch and How to Prepare

By David Motta
May 18, 2023

autoaffiliate

The words of Malcolm X ring true: "The future belongs to those who prepare for it today." Preparation in affiliate marketing necessitates an understanding of evolving trends and the strategic nimbleness to adapt them to your plans. As we stride into 2024, affiliate marketing is entering a thrilling phase, with technology and changing consumer habits shaping its course. This piece delves into the transformative trends in affiliate marketing and arms you with practical insights to ready your strategies for success.

The Advent of AI and Automation

Advanced algorithms and automation are redefining the landscape of affiliate marketing. These tech advancements analyze consumer behavior, automate marketing campaigns, and streamline administrative tasks, enabling affiliate marketers to focus on refining their strategies. Platforms like AutoAffiliate are leading this wave, leveraging AI and automation to simplify affiliate marketing endeavors.

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Data Privacy Comes to the Forefront

Global data privacy regulations are urging affiliate marketers to focus on transparency in their data usage and sharing practices. Balancing personalized marketing while upholding privacy forms a key challenge for marketers. 
Those who skillfully tread this line, offering unambiguous privacy practices, will foster trust and loyalty among their audience.

Voice Search on the Rise

The surge of voice-activated devices is reshaping the way consumers interact with search engines. Adapting content for voice search, integrating natural language, and including question-based search terms are crucial for affiliate marketers aiming to stay relevant.

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Dominance of Video Content

Video content is increasingly pivotal in the digital marketing sphere. Its immersive nature is highly engaging to consumers, prompting affiliate marketers to incorporate video into their marketing strategies. The potential of video content, from product reviews to informational pieces, is a realm that marketers cannot afford to overlook.

Increase in Mobile Shopping

The convenience of shopping via mobile devices continues to drive consumer behavior. Ensuring websites and marketing strategies are mobile-friendly is essential for affiliate marketers to tap into this ever-growing market segment.

Personalized Marketing

Consumers are increasingly expecting personalized experiences. Affiliate marketers will need to leverage data and technology to offer individualized content and product recommendations, enhancing customer engagement and conversions.

Preparing for the Future of Affiliate Marketing

How can you gear up for this dynamic future? Here are some actionable steps:

  • Embrace Technology: Use technology to navigate the complex terrain of affiliate marketing. Platforms that utilize AI and automation, like AutoAffiliate, can revolutionize your operations, giving you more time to focus on strategy and content creation.
  • Transparency is Key: Foster trust and credibility with your audience by being upfront about your data practices. Respecting your audience's privacy can strengthen your relationships and enhance customer loyalty.
  • Optimize for Voice Search: Begin integrating more conversational language into your content and incorporating question-based keywords to cater to the surge in voice searches.
  • Invest in Video Content: Develop your skills in video content creation or seek partnerships with influencers to promote your affiliate products in an engaging, dynamic format.
  • Optimize for Mobile: Ensure your website is mobile-friendly and your marketing strategies consider mobile users to capitalize on the increasing prevalence of mobile shopping.
  • Personalize Your Marketing: Utilize data and technology to offer personalized content and product recommendations. This will enhance customer engagement and conversions, leading to increased affiliate sales.

Conclusion

The future of affiliate marketing is a rich landscape of opportunities for those willing to adapt and innovate. Staying abreast of industry trends and being ready to modify your strategies accordingly is paramount to sustained success. Leveraging the right tools, like AutoAffiliate, can make your journey not only smoother but significantly more rewarding.

Tim Moseley

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Analysts turn bearish on gold while retail investors remain bullish

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Analysts turn bearish on gold, while retail investors remain bullish

Gold gave up much of its recent gains during the first full week of December trading. After posting its first-ever monthly close above $2,000 last Friday, then opening Monday's Asian trading session with a new all-time high of $2,150 per ounce, the precious metal trended steadily downward in the following days, and was clinging to support around the $2,000 level on Friday afternoon.

The latest Kitco News Weekly Gold Survey shows most retail investors are still expecting price gains next week, while the overwhelming majority of market analysts have turned bearish or neutral on the yellow metal's near-term prospects.

Mark Leibovit, publisher of the VR Metals/Resource Letter, has moved from bullish to neutral on gold for next week. "With the US Dollar upticking and following last week's blow-off to the upside, I think we have to be cautious here," he said. "So, I am voting NEUTRAL for now."

Colin Cieszynski, Chief Market Strategist at SIA Wealth Management, said he's bearish on gold prices for the coming week.

"The market reaction to today's nonfarm payrolls and wage inflation data pushed up treasury yields and USD while knocking gold back a bit," he said. "I think the Fed is going to be less dovish than the street is hoping which may continue the correction in Gold that started after the overnight spike that started this trading week."

James Stanley, senior market strategist at Forex.com, sees gold prices rising next week. "Gold has had a tendency to set bear traps this year and the reversal seen earlier in the week may be setting up something similar," he said. "If the weekly bar of spot Gold closes below $2k that's going to look like an aggressive reversal candle. But, really, I'm not sure the risk backdrop supports such a thesis at the moment, and there are two major drivers next week with CPI and FOMC, so matters can change quickly."

"What we have seen so far was bulls showing up with support at or around that $2k level even after the massive reversal move to open the week," Stanley said.

Adrian Day, President of Adrian Day Asset Management, has switched his stance on the precious metal from neutral to negative. "Though the fundamental longer-term outlook is very positive, gold is vulnerable to bad news after such a strong run up, as I wrote last week. And we seem to have got that bad news with a stronger-than-expected official U.S. jobs report, destroying the optimism of other recent reports, and mitigating expectations of rate cuts any time soon."

Day said he sees "further downside" for the yellow metal. "Gold could easily fall back under $2,000, to support around $1975," he said. "However, the fundamental premise is that the Fed and other central banks will stop tightening in the face of deteriorating economies and unmanageable debt burdens while inflation remains stubborn, and this scenario is very bullish for gold."

This week, 15 Wall Street analysts participated in the Kitco News Gold Survey, and only three experts, or 20%, expected to see higher gold prices next week. Eight analysts, or 53%, predicted a drop in price, while the remaining four experts, representing 27%, were neutral on gold for the coming week.

Meanwhile, 729 votes were cast in Kitco's online polls, and market participants are maintaining their bullish outlook for the coming week despite this week's decline. 428 retail investors, or 59%, looked for gold to rise next week. Another 167, or 23%, expected it would be lower, while 134 respondents, or 18%, were neutral on the near-term prospects for the precious metal.

Kitco Gold Survey

Wall Street

Bullish20%

Bearish53%

Neutral27%

VS

Main Street

Bullish59%

Bearish23%

Neutral18%

The latest survey shows that retail investors expect gold prices to trade around $2,056 per ounce next week.

Central banks will once again take center stage in the coming week, with the FOMC rate decision on Wednesday, followed by the ECB and Bank of England decisions on Thursday. All three are expected to hold interest rates unchanged, though investors will still be watching to see if there is a shift in their tightening biases and projections.

Other noteworthy data releases include U.S. CPI on Tuesday, U.S. PPI on Wednesday, and the Empire State manufacturing survey and Flash PMI on Friday.

Daniel Pavilonis, Senior Commodities Broker at RJO Futures, said the pause in the gold price rally this week coincided with the pause in the slide in yields. "The yields stopped going down, and are starting to look like maybe they're overdone," he said. "I think gold as a market is questioning whether or not this thing can have the momentum to go higher."

Pavilonis believes the catalyst for the spike to all-time highs was geopolitics, "the Red Sea situation, aircraft carriers, some U.S. vessel was shot at," he said. "Then it sold off pretty quick, and now we're just range-bound."

"This market has so many reasons to trade at a much higher level, and it just really hasn't, although it has stayed at elevated levels," he added. "I think now you have another competing force with Bitcoin. The cryptocurrencies have started to take off again, and we've seen this last time cryptos took off. Are cryptos stealing some of that purchasing power away from gold?"

"My call for next week would be range-bound sideways," Pavilonis said. "It just seems like $2,000 is a magnet. We fall below it, we get back up there. We thought we'd rise above it, we fall back down to $2,000. I think it's the target, that's where the market is comfortable right now."

Adam Button, head of currency strategy at Forexlive.com, believes gold can move higher next week. "The weak hands have been shaken out of gold after the squeeze to start the week, but the fundamental picture remains intact," he said.

"I like gold lower next week," said Marc Chandler, Managing Director at Bannockburn Global Forex. "The massive key reversal on Monday sets the technical tone. A break of $2006 could see $1985. Moreover, five G10 central banks meet next week, and most will likely push against the aggressive rate cuts and early timing the market is discounting."

Darin Newsom, Senior Market Analyst at Barchart.com, has joined the bears for the near term. "February gold completed a bearish key reversal on its daily chart Monday, December 4, and did it in a big way," he said. "The contract consolidated for much of the rest of the week, but still remains in a short-term downtrend."

Heading into next week's trading, Newsom pegs initial short-term support at Tuesday's low of $2,027.60. "A break below that mark could trigger a selloff to test the next downside target of $1,997.40, the 50% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $1,842.50 (October 6 low) to $2,152.30 (December 4 high)," he said.

Frank McGhee, head precious metals dealer at Alliance Financial, also expects to see lower gold prices over the coming week, as the precious metal is "still reacting to the High Volume, Exhaustion Highs @ 2150+/-."

And Kitco Senior Analyst Jim Wyckoff expects gold prices to trade in a range next week. "Sideways and choppy as bears have gained some technical momentum late this week," Wyckoff said.

After kicking things off with a bang, gold prices slid steadily lower during the week, with spot gold falling 3.29% since Monday. The precious metal traded below $2,000 between Noon and 1:30 pm EST on Friday, but has since pulled back above that level, last trading at $2,001.71 per ounce, down 1.32% on the day at the time of writing.

By

Ernest Hoffman

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

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The gold market has a big hill to climb as prices lose 3 after hitting all-time highs

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The gold market has a big hill to climb as prices lose 3% after hitting all-time highs

 According to some analysts, next week will be an important test for the gold market as a hawkish Fed could put downward pressure on a market that is already sensitive following Monday's blow-off top.

After hitting a record high around $2,150 an ounce at the start of the week, gold prices are heading into the weekend down more than 3%, testing critical support just above $2,010 an ounce. With a $141 swing this week, the gold market saw the most volatility since mid-August 2020, just after gold established its previous record high.

Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, said that Monday's rally and subsequent selloff was not helpful for gold's long-term price action.

"Technically, gold has a lot of work to do to make up for the damage that was done," he said

Along with overbought momentum, Hansen said the gold market has run too far ahead regarding potential rate cuts in 2024, which could keep prices below $2,050 an ounce in the near term.

Some cold water was poured on a potential rate cut in March after employment data on Friday showed that the U.S. economy created 199,000 jobs last month, beating expectations. At the same time, the unemployment rate dropped to 3.7%, down from 3.9% in October.

"At the very least, we are going to see volatile markets and the room for a positive surprise for gold will be limited," Hansen said.

Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at OANDA, said he is also expecting to see elevated volatility in gold in the near term.

"It really has been quite the week for the yellow metal and with US inflation and the Fed interest rate decision to come next week, the volatility may not be going anywhere," he said.

Phillip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures, said that he is expecting to see some downward pressure on gold. He added that after Friday's employment report, it is unlikely Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will shift his hawkish stance, even as the central bank is expected to leave interest rates unchanged.

Gold could be sensitive to updated dot plots

It's not just a hawkish Powell that threatens the gold market. Along with its monetary policy decision, the Federal Reserve will release its updated economic projections, including its interest rate forecast, also known as the dot plot.

In the last update in September, the central bank signaled that it sees only two potential rate cuts in 2024. However, markets are pricing in more than 100 basis points of easing next year. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets see a nearly 60% chance that the first cut comes in March.

"There is going to be a clash between the Fed and market expectations unless we see a major adjustment in the dot plots," said Hansen.

Along with the Fed meeting, analysts have said that November's Consumer Price Index data could also add to the market volatility. Some analysts have said that if core inflation remains above 3%, it will force the Federal Reserve to maintain its tightening bias.

Keep an eye on BOE and ECB

While the Federal Reserve is in the spotlight next week, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank will be releasing their monetary policy decisions, with markets expecting rates to remain unchanged. However, investors are still anxious to see if there is a shift in their tightening biases.

Although gold prices could struggle next week, some analysts note that the market is still in good shape.

In a recent interview with Kitco News, Joseph Cavatoni, North American market strategist at the World Gold Council, said that he doesn't see Monday's failed rally as very harmful. He said that the rally shows how much potential the precious metal has when it sees the right market conditions.

Streible said that although prices may go lower, he thinks the current price is an attractive entry point.

"Here is where you start to dip your toe in the market," he said. "The downside is limited in gold. Although Powell won't be ready to cut rates in March, a slowing economy means that interest rates are ultimately going lower and that is what will propel gold higher."

Hansen said he is watching to see if gold prices will hold support at $2,010, adding that a break of that level could trigger some essential stops in the marketplace and create new selling momentum. He said that if 2,010 breaks, investors should keep an eye on the 200-day moving average of $1,959 an ounce.

Streible said that he is looking for support to be tested around $1,980 an ounce.

Economic data to watch next week:

Tuesday: U.S. CPI

Wednesday: U.S. PPI, FOMC monetary policy decision

Thursday: Bank of England monetary policy decision, European Central Bank monetary policy decision

Friday: Empire State manufacturing survey, Flash PMI

By

Neils Christensen

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

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Strong losses for gold silver following goldilocks US jobs report

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Strong losses for gold, silver following "goldilocks" U.S. jobs report

J Gold and silver prices are posting strong losses near midday Friday, in the aftermath of a U.S. jobs report from the Labor Department that suggests the U.S. economy is presently in a pretty good spot. Gold prices hit a two-week low today and silver a three-week low. Both markets are headed toward technically bearish weekly low closes on a Friday.

The U.S. Employment Situation Report for November appears to have fallen into the camp of the U.S. monetary policy hawks, who want the Federal Reserve to hold off on cutting U.S. interest rates anytime soon. Many analysts are calling today’s jobs data a "Goldilocks" report that is not too hot and not too cold for the general marketplace. The jobs report showed the key non-farm payrolls number up 199,000, which is just above market expectations for a rise of 190,000. However, the overall U.S. unemployment rate fell to 3.7% in November from 3.9% in October.

U.S. stock indexes sold off modestly on the jobs report, but then rebounded and are holding slight gains near midday. The U.S. dollar index rallied to post solid gains, while and U.S. Treasury yields rise significantly. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.241%. The stronger USDX and rising in bond yields are bearish "outside market" elements for the precious metals markets.

February gold was last down $32.80 at $2,013.60. March silver was last down $0.744 at $23.315.

By

Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

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Tim Moseley

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