Gold exhibits extreme gains as traders digest the complex events of March

Gold exhibits extreme gains as traders digest the complex events of March

Gold as a haven asset has been the recipient of the financial uncertainty that has unfolded this month. Gold futures hit a low of $1814 on March 8 and traded to its highest yearly value on Monday when April futures traded to an intraday high of $2015. Although gold pricing wasn't able to sustain attempts to close above $2000 it remains solidly within reach.

As of 5:22 PM EST, the most active April contract is fixed at $1981 after factoring in a decline today of $14.90 or 0.75%. Gold traded to an intraday high of $2006.50 and a low of $1977.70. The demand for gold-based investments has magnified intensely resulting in a $200 range from the lows of March 8 to the highs witnessed this week.

Even with one week remaining in March 2023, this month has been pivotal in terms of the major events that have unfolded. These events will most certainly shape the direction and strength of the financial markets throughout this year.

Not since 2008 have we seen a global banking crisis of this magnitude. In the space of 10 short days, we saw the collapse of multiple United States banks including Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank of New York, and Silverton. In addition, Chairman Powell mentioned up to six banks that could require assistance to remain solvent at the FOMC press conference this week.

America's top banks ponied up a $30 billion rescue deal over a 10-day period in conjunction with the steps by the US treasury, the FDIC, and the US Federal Reserve to attempt to cauterize the economic calamity in the banking system in hopes that these recent failures will not lead to a contagion of more banks. However, we don't know if the steps taken by government entities and private sector banks will be enough to contain the damage.

Concurrently, the world watched as Switzerland's second-largest bank, Credit Suisse collapsed and was acquired by UBS. The acquisition of Credit Suisse by UBS allowed the collapsed bank to mirror the more flexible hybrid work model of USB which embraces the theme of adapting and innovating to remain current to meet the diversified needs of its clients and employees.

This week the Federal Reserve concluded its March FOMC meeting and as expected raised its terminal rate by ¼%. What was unexpected was a defined timeline before the Federal Reserve concluded the aggressive rate hikes. While Chairman Powell stated that they most likely will raise rates one more time by ¼% in May, and the rate implemented by the Fed will likely be held with no rate cuts this year. The chairman emphatically stated that "rate cuts are not in our base case" during the Q&A section of his press conference.

Collectively the global bank failures and the possibility of contagion and a pronounced change in the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve in which we are closer to the end of rate hikes have been the defining forces that moved gold prices roughly $200 higher this month.

By

Gary Wagner

Contributing to kitco.com

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Blockchain Technology Continues To Evolve In 2023

Blockchain Technology Continues To Evolve In 2023

MARKETHIVE

The year 2023 has been a significant year for the blockchain industry, with several developments and trends that have shaped the industry. Here are some of the most notable events that took place in 2023 in the blockchain industry:

 

ecosystem for entrepreneurs

  1. Increased Adoption of Blockchain Technology: In 2023, there has been a significant increase in the adoption of blockchain technology across different industries. Blockchain technology has been embraced by the finance industry, supply chain management, healthcare, and many others. Companies have been exploring the use of blockchain to improve transparency, efficiency, and security in their operations.

  2. Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs): Many countries have been exploring the creation of their own digital currencies. China, for example, launched its digital yuan in 2022, and many other countries have followed suit. In 2023, more countries have announced plans to develop their own digital currencies, with some even exploring the possibility of using blockchain technology to create their CBDCs.

  3. Decentralized Finance (DeFi): Decentralized finance (DeFi) has continued to grow in popularity in 2023. DeFi applications have been built on various blockchain platforms, such as Ethereum, and offer users a range of financial services, such as lending and borrowing, without the need for intermediaries. The total value locked in DeFi applications has continued to grow in 2023, reaching new highs.

  4. NFTs: Non-fungible tokens (NFTs) have become increasingly popular in 2023. NFTs are unique digital assets that are stored on a blockchain, and they have been used to represent a wide range of assets, such as artwork, music, and video game items. In 2023, we have seen several high-profile NFT sales, with some NFTs selling for millions of dollars.

  5. Blockchain Interoperability: Blockchain interoperability has become a focus for many blockchain platforms in 2023. Interoperability refers to the ability of different blockchain platforms to communicate with each other, which would enable the creation of a more interconnected blockchain ecosystem. Several blockchain platforms have been working on developing interoperability solutions, with some already implementing cross-chain transactions.

  6. Environmental Concerns: The environmental impact of blockchain technology has become a growing concern in 2023. The energy consumption of blockchain networks, particularly those that use proof-of-work (PoW) consensus algorithms, has been criticized for its high carbon footprint. In response, many blockchain platforms have been exploring alternative consensus algorithms, such as proof-of-stake (PoS), which consume less energy.

  7. Increased Regulation: As blockchain technology becomes more widely adopted, regulatory bodies around the world have been paying closer attention to the industry. In 2023, we have seen increased regulation of blockchain and cryptocurrency activities, particularly around issues such as money laundering and tax evasion. Some countries have introduced new legislation to regulate blockchain and cryptocurrency activities, while others have updated existing laws to include blockchain-related activities.

In conclusion, the year 2023 has been a significant year for the blockchain industry, with many developments and trends that have shaped the industry. Blockchain technology has continued to be adopted across various industries, while new trends such as CBDCs and NFTs have emerged. Blockchain interoperability and environmental concerns have also been a focus for many blockchain platforms. As blockchain technology continues to evolve, it is likely that we will see further developments and trends in the years to come.

MARKETHIVE

Tim Moseley

Gold silver rally amid less-hawkish Fed weaker USDX

Gold, silver rally amid less-hawkish Fed, weaker USDX

Gold and silver prices solidly higher in midday U.S. trading Thursday, boosted in the wake of the Federal Reserve raising its main interest rate by a quarter-point, but also suggesting rates will not continue to rise. A depreciating U.S. dollar on the foreign exchange market is also working in favor of the metals market bulls late this week. April gold was last up $47.70 at $1,996.90 and May silver was up $0.509 at $23.30.

While the Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting produced a mostly expected quarter-point rate hike, Fed Chair Powell at his press conference leaned a bit more dovish than he had been in recent months. That boosted the precious metals and briefly rallied the U.S. stock indexes. However, what rattled the U.S. stock market late in the session Wednesday was comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen at a Senate hearing that the federal government has no plans to protect all bank deposits that are not FDIC-insured.

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are sharply higher at midday.

  Consumers cash in on unwanted gold as its price soars amid a spreading bank crisis

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker and at a seven-week low. Nymex crude oil futures prices are near steady and trading around $71.00 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching around 3.45%.

Technically, April gold futures bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a fledgling uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at this week’s high of $2,014.90. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,922.30. First resistance is seen at $2,000.00 and then at $2,014.90. First support is seen at today’s low of $1,967.30 and then at $1,950.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0

May silver futures prices hit a seven-week high today. The silver bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a steep, fledgling uptrend on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $24.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $22.00. First resistance is seen at $23.50 and then at $23.75. Next support is seen at $23.00 and then at $22.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

May N.Y. copper closed up 795 points at 412.35 cents today. Prices closed near the session high and hit a three-week high today. The copper bulls have gained the overall near-term technical advantage. A two-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the January high of 435.90 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the March low of 382.20 cents. First resistance is seen at 415.00 cents and then at 420.00 cents. First support is seen at 405.00 cents and then at 400.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

By

Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Gold futures surge 32 higher after the Fed signals a pause in hikes is imminent

Gold futures surge $32 higher after the Fed signals a pause in hikes is imminent

The rally in gold spot and futures returns after a small two-day correction. On Monday of this week, gold hit a new high value at $2015 per ounce. It was approximately one year ago to the day that gold futures traded above $2000 per ounce. Gold traded to a high of $2077 in March 2022. What followed was a multi-month correction that began a conclusion in September through November of last year. On November 3 a triple bottom was identified, the multi-month correction concluded, and a multi-month rally began.

As of 6 o’clock EST p.m. gold futures basis, the most active April contract has just opened up overseas in Australia. It is currently fixed at $1972.10 which is an increase of $22.50 based on the closing price in New York.

Market participants United States are now followed by overseas traders digesting what the Federal Reserve said and did after today’s FOMC meeting. As expected, they did raise their fed funds rate by ¼%. However, for the first time since they began their rate hikes they announced a pivot. That pivot is not rate cuts but rather that rate hikes will be paused with possibly one more rate hike of ¼% in May. They also confirmed that they would continue to keep this terminal rate elevated throughout 2023, a position they have maintained for quite some time.

While many investors had hoped to hear something about a rate cut the Federal Reserve made it clear that that is not something on the table right now and we can expect to see elevated interest rates throughout the remainder of the year. The pivot was that the Federal Reserve announced that they would not continue aggressive rate hikes and that a pause of rate hikes is imminent and soon.

It was this news that took gold prices higher and move the dollar lower. Currently, the dollar is down by 0.66% with the dollar index fixed at 102.195.

However, this FOMC meeting had a quite different tone than expected in that they announced a pause for the first since it began an aggressive period of rate hikes in March 2022 taking the Fed funds rate from near to its current rate which is 4 ¾% to 5.00%.

According to the CME’s FedWatch tool, there is a 38.8% probability that they will pause the rate hikes in May and a 61.2% probability that they will enact their last rate hike in this cycle of ¼% which would take their terminal rate to 5.00% to 5.1/4%.

Today’s announcement by Chairman Powell that a pause in rate hikes is imminent was solid news for the precious metals and disruptive for US equities and the dollar which traded lower.

By

Gary Wagner

Contributing to kitco.com

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Gold prices decline after reaching 2000 yesterday as banking fears ease

Gold prices decline after reaching $2000 yesterday as banking fears ease

Yesterday gold futures surged to the highest value of 2023, however after trading to a high of $2014 gold basis is most active April 2023 contract closed well below the intraday high. The high achieved yesterday was not only unsustainable on Monday but led to a deep price decline today. Gold futures are currently trading off by 1.98% or $39.20 taking the most active contract to $1943.60. The decline of $39 today can be attributed to market sentiment shifting regarding the banking crisis as fears diminished amongst traders, gold prices also eased ahead of Wednesday's rate hike decision by the Federal Reserve.

The Fed began its today FOMC meeting today which will conclude tomorrow. According to the CME's FedWatch tool, there is an 87.1% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise rates by 25-bps or ¼%, with a 12.9% probability that the Federal Reserve will pause and announce that they are not raising rates higher this month.

On Friday gold futures closed at $1972 in New York trading, however during the remainder of Globex trading which ends at 6:00 PM EST on Friday gold traded above $1990. This was a net gain of approximately $70 on the day. This was followed by yesterday's new record yearly high at $2014. However, the Japanese candlestick that formed yesterday contained a very small real body (the price between the open and closing price), with exaggerated upper and lower wicks (the vertical lines above and below the real body of a Japanese candlestick).

This type of Japanese candlestick is called a "doji" or a star when it gaps above the real body of the Japanese candlestick that occurs before it. If there is a gap between formed after the star it creates a Japanese candlestick pattern labeled as a "Three River Evening Star".

The "Three River Evening Star" is a Japanese candlestick pattern composed of three candles. The criteria for proper identification of this pattern occurs only when a stock or commodity is in an uptrend. This reversal pattern begins with a long green candle (a candle that closes above its opening price), followed by a star that gaps away from the green body, and the third day is a long red candlestick that must gap below the body of the star. The pattern can reveal a potential top or key reversal from bullish market sentiment to bearish market sentiment.

By

Gary Wagner

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Gold hits 12-mo high falls back a bit on profit taking

Gold hits 12-mo. high, falls back a bit on profit taking

Gold and silver prices are slightly up in midday U.S. trading Monday, with gold notching a 12-month high of $2,014.90 overnight, basis April Comex futures, and silver a six-week high. Some normal profit-taking pressure and chart consolidation are seen on the price pullbacks from the overnight highs. Still, safe-haven demand for the metals is present in a shaky general marketplace amid the U.S. and European banking crisis. The technical charts are also bullish for gold and silver, which continues to invite chart-based speculators to the long sides. April gold was last up $1.70 at $1,975.30 and May silver was up $0.108 at $22.565.

Global stock markets were mixed to lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are higher near midday. Banking stocks across the globe dropped Monday. Risk aversion is again keener early this week. The Swiss banking firm UBS acquired Credit Suisse over the weekend to try to stabilize the European banking system, following the collapse of two big U.S. banks in early March. The move did little to boost trader and investor confidence. "There is a general sentiment that is trending increasingly negative," said one market analyst. Said noted investor Mark Grant on CNBC when asked about the banking crisis: "It's going to get worse. It's going to be messy."

Now focus is on the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting that begins Tuesday and concludes Wednesday afternoon. There is still some debate in the marketplace regarding whether the Fed will raise its main interest rate by 25 basis points or stand pat amid the U.S. and European banking crisis. Most market watchers, however, are leaning toward a 0.25% rate increase. The 0.5% rate hike by the European Central Bank last week makes a 0.25% increase by the FOMC more likely.

  Once $2,000 breaks, gold is off to the races – Willem Middelkoop

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil futures prices are lower, hit a 15-month low and are trading around $66.25 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.4%.

There was no major U.S. economic data released Monday.

Technically, April gold futures prices hit a 12-month high early on today. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the all-time high of $2,078.80. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,900.00. First resistance is seen at $2,000 and then at today's high of $2,014.90. First support is seen at today's low of $1,970.00 and then at $1,950.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.5

May silver futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a fledgling uptrend on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $23.50. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $21.00. First resistance is seen at today's high of $22.855 and then at $23.00. Next support is seen at today's low of $22.35 and then at $22.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

May N.Y. copper closed up 565 points at 394.90 cents today. Prices closed near the session high and scored a bullish outside day up. The copper bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a two-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the March high of 417.25 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 372.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today's high of 396.10 cents and then at 400.00 cents. First support is seen at today's low of 385.50 cents and then at the March low of 382.20 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

By

Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

‘Original fear of missing out’: Gold price explodes and could test 2k after best week in 3 years – analysts

 

'Original fear of missing out': Gold price explodes and could test $2k after best week in 3 years – analysts

The gold market surged as prices saw their best week in three years amidst the fallout of the banking sector. Analysts are not ruling out a test of the $2,000 an ounce level next week as markets look past the Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting scheduled for Wednesday.

The precious metal rose from $1,867 an ounce to above $1,980 this week, posting a gain of more than $110 and its best performance since March 2020. April Comex gold futures were last trading at $1,988 an ounce, up $65 on the day.

The biggest event markets were gearing up for all week – the Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting – is now on the periphery. Markets are pricing in a 25-basis-point hike for Wednesday, but investors are more focused on the potential pause and rate cuts that could follow.

After wild swings in rate hike expectations this week, the gold market is in a winning position, according to analysts.

"Markets are concluding that we'll see the Fed go for another 25bps increase and then probably sit on it for a while and see what happens. The view from the gold perspective is that given disruptions in the banking system and the U.S. Treasury Department's willingness to help, we might get accommodation that allows inflation to hang around longer at a higher level. This is a good thing for gold," TD Securities global head of commodity strategy Bart Melek told Kitco News.

The consensus in the gold market is that the Fed will have to ease up before inflation is tamed, Melek added. And that is a massive shift in perspective from just a few weeks ago.

Another 25 bps hike might be interpreted as nothing more than a move by the Fed to keep its credibility, said Gainesville Coins precious metals expert Everett Millman. "They don't want to be seen as abandoning higher rates so quickly," Millman told Kitco News.

After Wednesday's decision, the Fed is unlikely to keep raising rates, Millman added. "Something will surely break if the Fed keeps its foot on the pedal," he said.

What the ECB told us

The European Central Bank raised the rate by 50 basis points this week, holding onto its hawkish stance despite the banking sector worries and market turbulence. RJO Futures senior market strategist Frank Cholly told Kitco News that this gave markets confidence that the Fed would also proceed with its existing plans.

"The market got its answer yesterday when ECB raised by 50 bps. Lagarde hammered the point that inflation has been too high for too long. I don't think 2% inflation is realistic. They know now they will break some things along the way," Cholly said.

Fed's new lending program

The Fed has been helping banks with liquidity issues this week, raising concern that the tightening from last year will be somewhat reversed. According to the latest data from the Fed, banks loaned $164.8 billion from two Federal Reserve backstop facilities this past week.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. estimated that the additional funding from the U.S. central bank's new 'Bank Term Funding Program' could add up to a maximum of $2 trillion in liquidity.

"It puts quantitive tightening on a bit of pause, with more money slashing around," Melek noted.

And the whole idea does not square with the Fed's efforts to tighten monetary policy, nor does it bode well in the fight against inflation, said Millman.

Testing $2,000 an ounce

With the fear of banking contagion risk spreading further, gold is very likely to test $2,000 an ounce next week before seeing some major profit-taking, analysts said.

"I would not be surprised if gold re-tested the highs from last year of above $2,000 an ounce. We can't see the future, but the banking situation gets more concerning by the day. The Fed is stuck between a rock and a hard place of trying to rescue vulnerable banks and fighting inflation," Millman explained. "Those two goals seem to be at cross purposes. Hard to raise rates higher without causing more stress in the banking system."

Melek pointed out that there is no reason why gold couldn't test $2,000 an ounce next week. "A good portion of this move higher is short-covering. But longs might have started getting in as well," Melek described.

The next big test for the gold market will be $1,975 an ounce, said Cholly. And if the precious metal gets a close above $1,950 an ounce, the momentum will continue.

Also, the fear of missing out is pushing prices higher, Cholly added. "This is the original fear of missing out. When gold gets cheap, people tend to stay away from it. But when prices go higher, people buy more," he said.

This is the opposite of what happens with other commodities, which see demand destruction once a certain price level is reached. "I thought gold would reach $2,000 sometime this year. Now, I am convinced it will be over $2,000 and will happen faster than I thought as people begin to chase the market," Cholly noted.

Next week's data

Tuesday: U.S. existing home sales

Wednesday: Fed decision

Thursday: U.S. jobless claims, new home sales

Friday: U.S. durable goods orders

By

Anna Golubova

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Gold Price chart

 

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View the gold price over different time frames: a day, week, month or year for accurate, real-time pricing on allocated gold bullion in kilograms, grams or ounces.

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Join Kinesis’ easy-to-use online platform to purchase physical gold bullion at these live prices.

 

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Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Silvergate Capital Silicon Valley Bank amp Signature Bank Have All Collapsed More To Come?

Silvergate Capital, Silicon Valley Bank, & Signature Bank Have All Collapsed. More To Come?

The recent scandals of Signature Bank, SVB, and Silvergate Bank have made headlines and left the industry reeling. However, the ramifications of these financial institutions' missteps for the crypto sector are yet to be entirely clear. To understand the impact, one must first look at the fundamental principles of blockchain technology and how it has upended traditional banking models.

The failure of these Banks in the United States means that many are questioning the sustainability of the cryptocurrency sector. The companies in question have all gone bankrupt, but this isn't the first time a major company has failed in the crypto sector. For example, the collapse of Mt. Gox and its affiliates in 2014 has cast a shadow on the industry, but this is not the only failure incident in this sector.

New York state financial regulators closed Signature Bank in what is believed to be the result of the Silicon Valley bank failure, as nervous depositors pulled funds out of Signature Bank. The bank's stock began to fall. The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank is expected to put pressure on several other small and regional banks in the United States.

In less than seven days, the largest bank for tech companies and two banks most accommodating to the cryptocurrency industry collapsed. The sad incidents generated uncertainty in the stablecoin market, despite cryptocurrency values rising Sunday night as the federal government intervened to offer depositors a safety net.

Silvergate Capital announced that it would be closing down and liquidating its bank. Major startup lender, Silicon Valley Bank, failed after its customers withdrew more than $42 billion in response to the bank's disclosure that it needed to borrow $2.25 billion to strengthen its balance sheet. Banking officials seized Signature on Sunday night; it had a significant crypto emphasis but was far bigger than Silvergate.

Approximately half of all venture-backed startups in the United States had cash on hand at Silicon Valley Bank, various firms that deal in digital assets, and venture capital funds that support cryptocurrencies. For bitcoin businesses, the two leading banks were Signature and Silvergate. The federal government stepped in to guarantee every deposit SVB and Signature depositors made. This action increased confidence and caused the price of bitcoins to increase briefly.

Nic Carter of Castle Island Ventures argues that the government is once again pursuing a loose monetary policy rather than one tightening since it is willing to support both banks. Historically, this has benefited speculative asset classes like cryptocurrency. However, the instability once more highlighted the frailty of stablecoins, a part of the bitcoin ecosystem that investors can often rely on to maintain a particular price. Stablecoins are intended to be tied to the value of a physical good, such as a fiat currency like the U.S. dollar or a commodity like gold. Yet, good financial conditions may prevent them from falling below their pegged value.

 


Image Source: Coindesk

Not Entirely Stablecoin

With TerraUSD's demise in May of last year, many of crypto's issues over the previous year have roots in the stablecoin industry. Meanwhile, during the last several weeks, regulators have focused on stablecoins. After much pressure from New York regulators and the SEC on its issuer, Paxos, Binance's dollar-pegged stablecoin, BUSD, saw significant withdrawals.

USDC lost its peg over the weekend and fell as low as 87 cents after its issuer, Circle, acknowledged having the sum of $3.3 billion banked with SVB. As a result, the sector's trust suffered once more. Circle has established itself as one of the best in the ecosystem of digital assets because of its links to and support from the conventional banking industry. It has long intended to go public and secured $850 million from investors like BlackRock and Fidelity.

Another popular dollar-pegged virtual currency, DAI, partially supported by USDC, dropped as low as 90 cents. For these reasons, USDC to dollars conversions has been temporally halted on Coinbase and Binance. Tether, the biggest stablecoin in the world with a market valuation of more than $72 billion, has seen many conversions from DAI and USDC in the past few days. The issuing company had no exposure to SVB. However, there have been concerns about tether's operations and the state of its reserves.

Circle published a post stating that it would "fill any gap utilizing company resources," this enabled the stablecoin market to recover. Since then, the USDC and DAI have turned back toward the dollar.

Reasons Behind The Ruins of Crypto-Friendly Banks
 
Silvergate Capital, a holding company for a bank that had made significant bets on serving the burgeoning crypto economy since 2016, announced that it would cease operating as a bank. State authorities ordered the closure of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), which had long performed a similar function by handling funds for businesses with venture capital funding.

In broad strokes, the same problem classic bank runs brought down both banks. Whether they are crypto exchanges or software firms, their former clients deal with significant commercial difficulties, partly due to the current financial and economic climate. As a result, deposits have decreased, and cash withdrawals have increased at a time when many of the banks' long-dated non-cash holdings have also been negatively impacted by the markets.

Hence, Silvergate and Silicon Valley Bank were forced to sell those underlying assets at significant losses when cash demands reached a certain level. In the fourth quarter of last year, Silicon Valley Bank, which had a bigger total balance sheet, and Silvergate reported losses on the sale of assets of $1 billion and $1.8 billion, respectively. Importantly, a substantial amount of the losses in both situations were attributable to the liquidations of U.S. Treasury bonds.

This serves as a valuable counterpoint to the careless mischaracterization of FTX's collapse as a "bank run" by several prominent media outlets back in November. There are a few similarities between what occurred at FTX and the liquidity difficulties that impacted Silvergate and SVB. These challenges have two upstream causes: the business cycle and the Federal Reserve's tightening interest rates. These elements are connected and fundamentally refer to disturbances brought on by COVID.

 


Image source: cryptoofficiel.com
 

The initial pressure that destroyed Silvergate and SVB resulted from Fed rate rises. It was clear that the increasing Treasury rates would discourage new investment in high-risk industries like tech and cryptocurrency. But another, mostly disregarded danger to the health of banks is the rise in interest rates. As the Wall Street Journal notes in uplifting clear language, issuing new Treasury bonds with greater yields has decreased the market value of pre-hike Treasuries with lower yields.

Most banks are legally required to keep significant quantities of Treasury securities as collateral, so they are susceptible to the same risk that affected Silicon Valley Bank and Silvergate. That's one of the reasons why bank stocks, especially those of regional or mid-sized banks, are falling.

Yet, Silvergate and Silicon Valley Bank had unique business cycle problems that might only apply to a select audience. Both catered to markets that witnessed enormous runups in the early phases of the COVID-19 pandemic, namely the crypto and venture-funded tech industries. The COVID lockdowns benefitted both industries, but cryptocurrency specifically profited from the pandemic relief funds distributed to Americans.

So, through 2020 and 2021, both banks had significant inflows. The balance sheet of Silicon Valley Bank quadrupled between December 2019 and March 2021. In 2021, Silvergate's assets also rose significantly. When interest rates on those bonds were still at or near 1%, both banks would have purchased more of them as collateral to support that deposit growth. Because of Fed rate increases, rates on new bonds are now closer to 4%, which reduces demand for older bonds. That's why Silvergate and SVB were forced to sell liquid assets at a loss when clients in booming or turning industries began withdrawing their deposits.

We're still in Covid Economy

If you focus only on one aspect of the situation, you can cherry-pick explanations to blame this disaster on whoever suits your prejudices. But the reality is that everyone is trying to escape the same COVID-caused disaster in the same leaky lifeboat, battling over who gets eaten first.
Some people may criticize the Fed for raising interest rates, especially the crypto traders, yet doing so is required to control inflation.

The inflation, in turn, was brought on by COVID-19-related actual cost increases and a materially increased money supply due to COVID relief and bailout actions. An anti-Fed criticism at this time is, at best, reductive since it will take years to fully assess the total cost and value of such initiatives.

On the other hand, it will be alluring for many in the mainstream to attribute the impending banking crisis to the cryptocurrency industry as a whole. The fact that Silvergate, ‘the crypto bank,’ failed first is the strongest argument in favor of this assertion. You could hear it described as “the first domino to fall" or other such nonsense in the coming weeks, but that isn't how things stand.

Due to its involvement in a sector-wide degenerate long bet on cryptocurrencies that was well in advance of real acceptance and a sustainable source of income, Silvergate was more vulnerable. Yet that wasn't what started its liquidity issue, and its decline won't significantly contribute to any further bank failures in the future.

Instead, all American banks are subject to many of the same structural forces, regardless of whether they are financing server farms or the physical corn and pea version. A deadly virus that has killed more than six million people is the core cause of their severe economic upheaval. If there is one thing to learn right now, adjusting financial levers won't completely eliminate that type of instability in the present chaotic world.

 

 

 

About: Prince Chinwendu. (Nigeria) Rapid and sustainable human growth is my passion, and getting a life-changing opportunity into the hands of people is my calling. Empowering entrepreneurs provides me with enormous gratification. Find me at my Markethive Profile Page | My Twitter Account | and my LinkedIn Profile.

 

 

 

 

Tim Moseley

Gold surges to 19828 as investors rethink the banking crisis and accommodative Fed

Gold surges to $1982.8 as investors rethink the banking crisis and accommodative Fed

Gold futures surged to the highest value of 2023 taking out the former high of $1976 achieved in February. As of 4:09 PM EST, the most active April contract of gold futures is up $58.10 or 3.02% and fixed at $1981.10. Although dollar weakness contributed to today’s dramatic ascent it was only a small factor in a much larger picture. Considering that gold futures had a net gain of over 3% and the dollar softened by 0.52%, roughly 5/6 of today’s gains in gold are directly attributable to market participants bidding the precious yellow metal higher.

Next Tuesday, the Federal Reserve will hold its second Open Market Committee meeting of the year. This will be followed by an FOMC statement and press conference by Chairman Jerome Powell on the following day March 22.

However, this FOMC meeting will be quite different in that there is an additional major component that must be factored into their decision that they will announce next Wednesday, March 22. Not only will the Federal Reserve continue to be laser-focused on reducing inflation which remains sticky or persistent in many sectors, but now they need to factor in a banking crisis that was first reported last week.

On March 10, 2023, reports began to surface about the Silicon Valley Bank failing after a bank run by depositors challenging the solvency and leading to an inevitable bankruptcy announcement today. The SVB was unique in that its primary business was funding venture capitalists and start-up tech companies. To raise the capital they liquidated a major portion of their assets on their balance sheet at a loss of $1.8 billion.

Immediately the FDIC and banking regulators stepped in to guarantee that depositors' money would become available. Then yesterday 11 major US banks created a $30 billion fund held at the first Republic Bank to create a backstop to keep banks like SVB and signature Bank of New York solvent. Federal banking regulators applauded the support of this large bank group because it validates the resilience of the banking system in the United States.

This brings us to next week’s FOMC meeting. It is anticipated that the Federal Reserve will approve a ¼% rate hike with the banking crisis ultimately backstopping the opinion that the Federal Reserve would step up its rate hikes with a ½% rate hike next week. Although it has been rumored that the Fed might pause many analysts believe that the Fed needs to continue to raise rates even with the banking crisis to maintain its credibility.

Gary S. Wagner

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

The Artist that came out of the Winter