Goldman Sachs sees gold rallying over 2000 in 12 months as banking crisis spurs safe-haven demand

  

Goldman Sachs sees gold rallying over $2,000 in 12 months as banking crisis spurs safe-haven demand

The biggest banking crisis since 2008 has created a surge in safe-haven demand for gold and Goldman Sachs is looking for prices to remain above $2,000 an ounce 12 months from now.

Wednesday, commodity analysts at Goldman Sachs updated their 12-month gold forecast, saying that they see prices rallying to $2,050 an ounce, up from their previous one-year target of $1,950 an ounce. At the same time, the investment bank reiterated its bullish outlook for the commodity sector, seeing a broad-based gain of 28%.

The bullish outlook for gold comes as the precious metal sees some profit-taking heading into the weekend after retesting resistance at $2,000 an ounce. April gold futures last traded at $1980.20 an ounce, relatively flat from last week.

Looking past the short-term technical selling, the analysts noted that gold remains the best safe-haven hedge against financial risks. They also added that an end to the Federal Reserve's tightening cycle, leading to a weaker U.S. dollar, will continue supporting the precious metal.

According to Goldman Sachs, investors will once again start moving capital into gold-backed exchange-traded products.

"We believe the market will be well supported not only by ETF inflows once Fed fund rates have peaked but by a stronger 'Wealth' effect from the East as the USD depreciates into year-end on yield compression and EM GDP grows strongly on China reopening effects,” the bank said in the note.

Since the start of the banking crisis two weeks ago with the collapse of two major regional U.S. banks, about 24 tonnes of gold has flowed into the world's biggest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD).

According to data from the World Gold Council, global gold ETFs saw inflows of 18 tonnes in the first few days of the banking crisis, ending ten consecutive weeks of outflows.

 Gold bulls are in the driver's seat; market sentiment looking for prices to hold around $2,000

Although gold is expected to grind higher from current levels, Goldman analysts said it would take a significant shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy to push prices above $2,100 an ounce.

Goldman Sachs economists are not expecting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this year, in line with comments from the head of the central bank Jerome Powell.

However, market expectations paint a different picture. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the market is pricing in a rate cut by June and sees the potential for four rate cuts before the end of the year.

By

Neils Christensen

464For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Gold’s bullish uptrend won’t be reversed by a ‘mean washout’ – analysts

Gold's bullish uptrend won't be reversed by a 'mean washout' – analysts

The gold market retreated Friday as better-than-expected U.S. data and hawkish comments from St. Louis Fed President James Bullard weighed on prices. But analysts don't see the gold's bullish uptrend reversing soon.

Gold was down around $15 on the day after hitting a high of $2,006.50 earlier in the session. After seeing its best gains in three years last week, gold continues its move higher, testing the $2,000 an ounce level a few times this week. At the time of writing, April Comex gold futures were trading at $1,980.50, down 0.77% on the day.

Gold began to decline Friday after the preliminary U.S. manufacturing and service-sector sentiment data beat expectations for March. The flash U.S. manufacturing Purchasing Managers (PMI) Index advanced to 49.3, marking a five-month high. And the service sector saw the PMI reading jump to 53.8 in March, marking an 11-month high.

Also, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said Friday that as the banking sector stress eases, the Federal Reserve will have to raise rates higher.

Bullard remained hawkish "in reaction to the stronger economic news and also on the assumption that the financial stress abates in the weeks and months ahead."

He raised his terminal rate estimate to a 5.50%-5.75% range, while his colleagues maintained their target primarily between 5.00% and 5.25%.

But the bond market is signaling that a Fed pivot is coming, RJO Futures senior market strategist Frank Cholly told Kitco News.

"The bond market is telling us we will get a rate cut. That is favorable for gold. We see a correction after a big rally. But that is not enough to change the trend," Cholly said. "It could be as early as June that we see the Fed start to cut."

In the short term, analysts do not rule out a reversal in gold after its quick gains. But the overall trend will remain intact, taking prices above $2,000 an ounce.

"The immediate stretch might be at risk of exhaustion here. But the trade is constructive as long as gold stays above $1,850. Even if we get a mean washout, the downtrend is broken, and I am looking for an uptrend resumption," Forex.com's senior technical strategist Michael Boutros told Kitco News.

The levels to watch on the way up are $2,034, the record-high weekly close, and then $2,075. That would open the door to $2,150, Boutros said, adding that gold spent very little time above $2,000 an ounce in 2020 or 2022.

The banking crisis, combined with the Fed rate hike expectations easing, is creating "true risk-off haven flows," the technical strategist added.

The biggest variable for gold going forward is the contagion risk in the banking sector. And the central question is whether Washington is willing to backstop all depositors. On that front, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Fed Chair Jerome Powell have been sending mixed signals.

"We are not done with the banking problem. There is a flight of capital from regional banks, and we might see structural failure. How deep it stretches is the problem. There is also the moral hazard of backstopping all depositors. Can't go case-by-case basis," Boutros said. "With regards to gold, it is a constructive move."

Cholly sees gold well supported at $1,950-$1,975 an ounce.

The banking crisis is doing the work for the Fed, and there could be a credit crunch coming, Cholly warned.

"It will get harder for people to borrow money. That is going to slow things down. We will see things slow down without the Fed having to raise rates further. Banks will be tighter and fussier about lending money," he said.

 

Next week's data

Tuesday: U.S. CB consumer confidence

Wednesday: U.S. pending home sales

Thursday: U.S. jobless claims, GDP Q4

Friday: U.S. PCE price index

By

Anna Golubova

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

The Big Reveal Of The Twitter Files MSM Ignores Time To Be Awakened

The Big Reveal Of The Twitter Files MSM Ignores. Time To Be Awakened

A particular comment by stalwart Elon Musk went viral after he orchestrated the first Twitter files release in December 2022. “Almost every conspiracy theory that people had about Twitter turned out to be true.” Since that time, 19 more Twitter Files have been released. They've revealed a concerning relationship between the government and big tech, which will likely evolve as online censorship laws come into force.

This article outlines the Twitter Files, including why they're being released, who's been publishing them, what they say, and how the powers that be will push back. As many will know, Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk finalized his acquisition of Twitter in October 2022. In the months preceding the acquisition, Elon promised to bring more transparency to the social media platform to increase trust. In November, he delivered. He tweeted,

 

Image source: Twitter

In December 2022, American author and journalist Matt Taibbi released the first set of Twitter files in a thread. Naturally, the first set of Twitter Files explained what they are precisely and discussed the now infamous suppression of a story about President Joe Biden's son Hunter Biden leading up to the 2020 election. 

What Are The Twitter Files?

So, what are the Twitter Files, and why are they significant? In short, the Twitter Files are a collection of internal documents that prove that the US government was working closely with the social media platform to censor certain information. It’s significant because free speech is protected under the First Amendment in the United States. 

To be clear, Twitter is a private company, meaning it is not obligated to abide by the First Amendment. However, the US government is obliged to comply with the First Amendment. According to some constitutional experts, its use of Twitter to suppress free speech could therefore be illegal. 

Another reason the Twitter files are significant is that they suggest the US government could be censoring other social media platforms. This article explains the collaboration of 3 letter agencies with legacy social media and evidence to support this hypothesis; the Twitter Files add to the pile. 

As previously mentioned, there have been 19 sets of Twitter files so far, and they've been posted as lengthy threads by multiple renowned journalists. Besides Matt Taibbi, the list includes Michael Shellenburger, Bari Weiss, Lee Fang, David Zweig, and Alex Berenson, all well respected. But of course, they've all since become substantive enemies of the state for being involved in this. 


Image source: The Epoch Times

It's important to point out that the Twitter files aren't just sitting there waiting to be reported. In an interview with Kim Iverson, David Zweig revealed that even though they have unrestricted access to Twitter data, thanks to Elon, it's been challenging to dig up the information they're looking for. 

This is partly because Twitter systems weren't designed to be searched. In other words, it’s like they have access to the entire internet but no search engine to search through it. The difficulty is also due to the obstruction and sabotage that the journalists faced from Twitter employees, most of whom have since been fired.

The silver lining is that it's been easy for them to know when they found something. Matt Taibbi gave an amusing example in an interview with Joe Rogan: A document containing phone numbers for a secret social media censorship group chat for big tech companies was simply and openly titled ‘Secret Phone Numbers.’ So with that information in mind, we’ll look at what they found. 

Incidentally, both political parties were involved in social media censorship. As was almost every single branch of the US government, particularly the intelligence agencies. The difference is that Republican-affiliated entities sought to suppress the discussion of specific subjects, namely panic buying at grocery stores at the start of the pandemic. By contrast, Democrat-affiliated entities demanded the suppression of particular people, specific tweets, and retweets.

 

Image source: Running List of All Twitter Files Releases – Jordan Sather
 

Part One Of The Twitter Files

The first set of Twitter Files discussed the suppression of a story about Hunter Biden. The short story about Hunter Biden is that he left a laptop at a computer repair shop containing information that suggested that his dad, “the big guy,” was doing shady stuff. 

The New York Post published the story in October 2020, shortly before the November 2020 election. Twitter and other social media outlets suppressed the story at the request of Democrat interests. Given the testimony of former Twitter executives, many Republicans have since argued that the 2020 election outcome would have been different were it not for the censorship of the story.

Part Two Of The Twitter Files

The second set of Twitter Files was published a few days later. The topic was Twitter's secret blacklisting policy, also known as Shadow Banning. For context, Twitter executives had denied that the platform shadowbanned users for years and would never do so for political purposes. 

However, the second set of Twitter Files confirmed that Twitter had a shadowbanning system designed to limit the reach of specified users. This suppression was almost always political. It also went into overdrive during the pandemic, with users skeptical of pandemic restrictions being targeted.

Parts 3, 4, and 5 Of The Twitter Files

The third set of Twitter Files was published the same day as the second. The topic was the controversial removal of the then-US President, Donald Trump, from the platform. This was also the topic for the fourth and fifth sets of Twitter files, all outlined here for the sake of simplicity.

To begin with, Twitter's top staff worked tirelessly to suppress Trump's reach on Twitter. Following the contentious events of January 6th, 2020, Twitter's team devised a new content policy to justify banning Trump. The files seemed to imply that they were pushed to do this by Democrat interests. 

This undertaking involved axing Twitter's Public Interest policy, which stated that information should remain on the platform, no matter how controversial, so long as it's not illegal. The Public Interest policy was replaced by a new approach called the ‘Glorification of Violence' policy, with Trump as the first offender

As explained by Matt in the interview with Joe Rogan, mentioned above, the glorification of violence policy includes an assessment of who follows a person on Twitter to determine whether that person incited violence. So, if even a single account that’s “deemed violent” follows Trump, it means that person was violating the policy. 

Some may think the new policy is justified, but if you take a moment to consider that almost every account on Twitter probably has at least one follower that Twitter could consider to be violent. In other words, the policy could be applied to whichever accounts Twitter wants to eliminate, which is brutal. 

Part Six Of The Twitter Files

The sixth set of Twitter Files is even more formidable. They revealed that Twitter was in such frequent contact with the FBI that the social media company could be considered a subsidiary of the intelligence agency. 

The FBI provided hundreds of takedown requests, and Twitter always complied. Also, the number of former FBI agents working at Twitter was so large that they'd created their own Slack channel. For reference, Slack is a platform used to coordinate workplace communications. 

Much of the sensitive info in the Twitter files came from these Slack discussions. These files also revealed that Twitter complied with censorship requests from NGOs. Matt concluded, “What most people think of as the Deep State is really a tangled collaboration of state agencies, private contractors, and NGOs. The lines become so blurred as to be meaningless.”

Part Seven Of The Twitter Files

The seventh set of Twitter Files returns to the topic of the suppressed Hunter Biden story. This is because the independent journalist discovered that both Twitter and the FBI were aware that the contents of the laptop were likely genuine but insisted that it was Russian disinformation. 

Part Eight Of The Twitter Files

The eighth set of Twitter Files was about another formidable subject, and that's how Twitter aided and abetted the US military to execute propaganda operations overseas. They shape narratives about foreign conflicts that put the US in a positive light and even use fake accounts with AI-generated deep fakes to this end.

In August 2022, a Stanford Internet Observatory report.pdf exposed a U.S. military covert propaganda network on Facebook, Telegram, Twitter & other apps using fake news portals and deep fake images and memes against U.S. foreign adversaries. The U.S. propaganda network relentlessly pushed narratives against Russia, China, and other foreign countries. They accused Iran of "threatening Iraq’s water security and flooding the country with crystal meth" and of harvesting the organs of Afghan refugees.

Part 9 Of The Twitter Files

The ninth set of Twitter Files was about Twitter's relationship with all the other US government agencies. This set of Twitter Files seems to have responded to the FBI's response to the previous set of files which the feds predictably claimed were all a “conspiracy theory to discredit the agency.”

Funnily enough, the Twitter Files found that the FBI acted as a concierge between Twitter and other US government agencies, allowing them all to submit content takedown requests. This included censorship of discussions about atrocities related to the war in Ukraine.

The long list of US Government agencies included local police departments, which had the power to search and censor users and posts. These privileges were granted by all the big tech companies involved in online censorship meetings, including Facebook, Microsoft, and even Reddit. 

Part Ten Of The Twitter Files

The 10th set of Twitter Files is about the very contentious topic of the pandemic. These Twitter files found that accurate information was suppressed and censored if it went against the official pandemic narrative. The instructions for this suppression came directly from the White House, both under former President Trump and current President Biden. Whereas the Trump White House was concerned about panic-buying, the Biden White House asked Twitter to censor specific people and posts. 

That list of people included former New York Times journalist Alex Berenson and Dr. Martin Kulldorff, an epidemiologist at Harvard Medical School. The posts included those that cited official government statistics or statements about the pandemic, which discredited the official narrative, what they call ‘the science.’ 

Part 11 Of The Twitter Files

The 11th set of Twitter Files explains the history of the social media platform’s partnership with intelligence agencies. This set of files suggests this collusion only began in 2017 when Democrat interests insisted that Trump had won the 2016 election due to Russian interference. 

According to the Twitter files, there appears to be no evidence of significant Russian interference in the 2016 election. On the contrary, Russian interference was used by US government agencies as an excuse to infiltrate big tech companies further and dictate how information is shared online.

Part 12 Of The Twitter Files

This ties into the 12th set of Twitter Files, suggesting that Twitter was coerced into complying with the US government. Twitter was struggling with the problem of public and private agencies bypassing them and going straight to the media with lists of so-called suspicious accounts. They would have politicians push for anti-big tech legislation and leak information to the press whenever Twitter refused to comply with their censorship requests. 

This combination of private and public pressure intensified when the pandemic began. US government agencies pressured Twitter to suppress information about the pandemic's origins. The US government has since pulled a complete 180° with the FBI confirming original suspicions were indeed correct.

Part 13 Of The Twitter Files

The 13th set of Twitter Files conducted by Alex Berenson discusses how Twitter suppressed the debate about treatments for Covid, particularly the tweet from Dr. Brett Giroir claiming that natural immunity was superior to vaccine immunity was "corrosive" and might "go viral." After being pressured by a top Pfizer board member, Dr. Scott Gottlieb, Twitter censored content challenging the narrative, saying it might hurt sales of Pfizer’s mRNA vaccines which his company directly benefits from. 

He also went after another tweet about Covid’s low risk to children. Pfizer would soon win the okay for its mRNA shots for children, so keeping parents scared was crucial. Gottlieb claimed on Twitter and CNBC that he was not trying to suppress debate on mRNA jabs. These files prove that Gottlieb, a board member at a company that has made $70 billion on the shots, did just that.

Part 14 Of The Twitter Files

The 14th set of Twitter Files was released in mid-January. They reveal how trending hashtags on Twitter that went against popular narratives were attributed to Russian bots and suppressed despite Twitter having zero internal evidence of Russian involvement. Twitter warned politicians and media they not only lacked evidence but had evidence the accounts weren’t Russian but were roundly ignored.

You may remember that Russian bots were blamed for almost everything a few years ago. These Twitter Files recount how this baseless claim became overblown to the point that mainstream media alleged Russian bots controlled both sides of the narrative.

The Russians were also blamed for #ReleaseThe Memo, #Schumer Shutdown, #Parkland Shooting, and even #Gun Control Now  to “widen the divide,” according to the New York
Times. The Russiagate scandal was built on the cowardly dishonesty of politicians and reporters, who ignored the absence of data to fictional scare headlines for years.

Part 15 & 16 Of The Twitter Files

This relates to the 15th set of Twitter Files, which reveals that intelligence agencies started alleging Russian bots were running large republican-leaning accounts. These allegations were so extreme that even Twitter's censorship policy teams pushed back against suppression requests. 

In mid-February, Matt Taibbi published the 16th set of Twitter Files and provided an excellent summary of the previous 15 files. 

“The Twitter files have revealed a lot: thousands of moderation requests from every corner of government, Feds mistaking both conservatives and leftists for fictional Russians, even Twitter deciding on paper to cede moderation authority to the US intelligence community.” 

Matt also laments that there's been next to no mainstream media coverage of the Twitter Files except that Donald Trump had requested Twitter take down a spiteful tweet. Matt then highlighted a few more egregious cases of such requests to see if the media would cover them. All he got was crickets.

Part 17 Of The Twitter Files

The 17th set of Twitter files was published in early February 2023 and is relative to a US Government agency, The Global Engagement Center (GEC), created in Obama’s last year of presidency. The GEC is an interagency group whose initial partners include the FBI, DHS, NSA, CIA, DARPA, and Special Operations Command (SOCOM), et al. 

They reveal that it used Twitter for geo-political purposes, with agencies instructing the social media platform to suppress and censor posts and accounts assumed to be affiliated with foreign intelligence. Similarly to the obsession with Russian bots, hundreds, if not thousands, of Twitter accounts were incorrectly labeled as associated with Indian or Chinese intelligence.

The Twitter Files thread reveals that the bombshell reports have managed to attract the attention of US politicians, who summoned two journalists, Matt Taibi and Michael Shellenburger, to a hearing on March 9th, 2023.

Part 18 Of The Twitter Files

The 18th set of Twitter Files relates to the Censorship Industrial Complex, which demonstrates that Twitter was a partner to the government. Along with other tech firms, it held a regular “industry meeting” with the FBI and DHS. It developed a formal system for receiving thousands of content reports from every corner of government: HHS, Treasury, NSA, and even local police.

At its essence, the Censorship-Industrial Complex is a bureaucracy willing to sacrifice factual truth to serve broader narrative objectives. It’s the opposite of what a free press does. The Twitter Files show the principles of this incestuous self-appointed truth squad. It’s moving from law enforcement/intelligence to the private sector and back, claiming a special right to do what they say is bad practice for everyone else: be fact-checked only by themselves.

Part 19 Of The Twitter Files

Since then, new information released on the Twitter Files on March 17th, 2022, revealed that the US government and major social media companies worked hand-in-hand with Stanford University to censor or limit accurate information about COVID-19.

Independent Journalist Matt Taibbi tweeted, 

"The Virality Project in 2021 worked with government to launch a pan-industry monitoring plan for Covid-related content. At least six major Internet platforms were 'onboarded' … daily sending millions of items for review."

For reference, the Virality Project is a ‘coalition of research entities focused on supporting real-time information exchange between the research community, public health officials, government agencies, civil society organizations, and social media platforms,’ per their website.

The goal of the project, created by Stanford University, was to identify people on social media who said things about COVID-19 that the government did not want them to say. Perhaps the most glaring issue Matt Taibbi highlighted in the Twitter Files drop was that the Virality Project was “repeatedly, extravagantly wrong.”

Autocrats Push Back

How will the ‘powers that be’ push back against the Twitter Files? The thing is, they’ve been pushing back Elon Musk for the entire time. One of the main ways they've been doing this is by going after Elon's other enterprises. Tesla has been hit with a barrage of baseless lawsuits and regulatory threats. 

Twitter has also been the target of a relentless propaganda campaign, claiming its fresh free-speech approach is destroying the world in every possible way. Many would say that’s unfair, considering that Twitter and other mainstream social media platforms had made the world a nastier place long before Elon got involved.

Most of this propaganda came from the European Union, which will begin enforcing its online censorship laws mid-year. Conceivably, the pressure on Elon and Twitter will only increase as we get closer to the 2024 election in the United States. It's clear that Twitter significantly influences political discourse in the USA. What's said on the platform could affect the next election's outcome, which gives Elon lots of power. 

Considering that he voted Republican for the first time last year, it's likely that he will be promoting whichever conservative candidate is selected to run. Bearing in mind that most US agencies seem to be aligned with the Democrats, it's likely they will do everything they can to prevent a Republican victory. 

This begs the question of how exactly they will take down Twitter. After all, Elon is a formidable foe; he's one of the wealthiest men in the world, has many connections, and has a massive loyal following. He can access advanced technologies thanks to all the companies he owns and operates. And therein lies the answer; cutting-edge technologies.

Putting on the ‘tin foil hat’ for a moment, it's plausible that US Agencies could attempt to take down Twitter by flooding it with deep fakes or images related to elections. This could give them the perfect excuse to return to Twitter, saying they're not taking content moderation seriously. US Agencies already have a history of doing this. (recall the eighth set of Twitter files above.)

Luckily Elon is a smart guy and probably saw this coming from a million miles away, and arguably one of the reasons why the paid verification badges were introduced. It makes it easy to identify which accounts are malicious. A digital forensics technique can also identify deep fakes, providing it stays vigilant of fast-paced emerging technology. This will make it easy for Twitter to scrub most, if not all, deep fake content before the 2024 election. The caveat is that it could simultaneously require everyone using Twitter to complete KYC to use the platform. 

At that point, the US government agencies would need to find a way to remove Elon from Twitter and install someone who will use this information for their own agenda. This takeover could happen to all legacy social media. 

In politics, deepfakes are the inevitable next step in the attack on truth. In addition, deepfakes weaponize information to maximize the dynamics of a social media ecosystem that prizes traffic above nearly all else.

The Panacea For This Coup d'etat

The only solution to this takeover is decentralized alternatives. Many platforms are popping up to combat government agencies' perverse centralization and infiltration. Former Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey has backed the development of an alternative micro-blogging platform like Twitter called Bluesky. Dorsey described it as “an open decentralized standard for social media.”

Markethive has gone one step further by incorporating an inbound marketing, social network, and content broadcasting platform for entrepreneurs. The ecosystem is a conceptual cottage industry, including a merchant accounting system and cryptocurrency. It has adopted the necessary measures to thwart any power plays by autocrats and heading toward total decentralization. CEO of Markethive, Tom Prendergast, says,

"Now more than ever, we rely on Web3 technology, so the safest and most logical way to go to achieve financial freedom, peace of mind, and self-sovereignty is online with a Blockchain-driven Market Network that is divinely inspired and will withstand and survive the perils, the world is now facing. We are in a time of biblical proportions Markethive is building the proverbial ark."

The transition from centralization to decentralization would be highly bullish for the cryptocurrency blockchains that support decentralized social media platforms. Given the calamity of the geopolitical corruptness and failing monetary system, an alternative crypto economy is making more sense than ever. 

 

 

 

Editor and Chief Markethive: Deb Williams. (Australia) I thrive on progress and champion freedom of speech. I embrace "Change" with a passion, and my purpose in life is to enlighten people to accept and move forward with enthusiasm. Find me at my Markethive Profile Page | My Twitter Account | and my LinkedIn Profile.

 

 

 

 

Tim Moseley

Gold exhibits extreme gains as traders digest the complex events of March

Gold exhibits extreme gains as traders digest the complex events of March

Gold as a haven asset has been the recipient of the financial uncertainty that has unfolded this month. Gold futures hit a low of $1814 on March 8 and traded to its highest yearly value on Monday when April futures traded to an intraday high of $2015. Although gold pricing wasn't able to sustain attempts to close above $2000 it remains solidly within reach.

As of 5:22 PM EST, the most active April contract is fixed at $1981 after factoring in a decline today of $14.90 or 0.75%. Gold traded to an intraday high of $2006.50 and a low of $1977.70. The demand for gold-based investments has magnified intensely resulting in a $200 range from the lows of March 8 to the highs witnessed this week.

Even with one week remaining in March 2023, this month has been pivotal in terms of the major events that have unfolded. These events will most certainly shape the direction and strength of the financial markets throughout this year.

Not since 2008 have we seen a global banking crisis of this magnitude. In the space of 10 short days, we saw the collapse of multiple United States banks including Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank of New York, and Silverton. In addition, Chairman Powell mentioned up to six banks that could require assistance to remain solvent at the FOMC press conference this week.

America's top banks ponied up a $30 billion rescue deal over a 10-day period in conjunction with the steps by the US treasury, the FDIC, and the US Federal Reserve to attempt to cauterize the economic calamity in the banking system in hopes that these recent failures will not lead to a contagion of more banks. However, we don't know if the steps taken by government entities and private sector banks will be enough to contain the damage.

Concurrently, the world watched as Switzerland's second-largest bank, Credit Suisse collapsed and was acquired by UBS. The acquisition of Credit Suisse by UBS allowed the collapsed bank to mirror the more flexible hybrid work model of USB which embraces the theme of adapting and innovating to remain current to meet the diversified needs of its clients and employees.

This week the Federal Reserve concluded its March FOMC meeting and as expected raised its terminal rate by ¼%. What was unexpected was a defined timeline before the Federal Reserve concluded the aggressive rate hikes. While Chairman Powell stated that they most likely will raise rates one more time by ¼% in May, and the rate implemented by the Fed will likely be held with no rate cuts this year. The chairman emphatically stated that "rate cuts are not in our base case" during the Q&A section of his press conference.

Collectively the global bank failures and the possibility of contagion and a pronounced change in the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve in which we are closer to the end of rate hikes have been the defining forces that moved gold prices roughly $200 higher this month.

By

Gary Wagner

Contributing to kitco.com

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Blockchain Technology Continues To Evolve In 2023

Blockchain Technology Continues To Evolve In 2023

MARKETHIVE

The year 2023 has been a significant year for the blockchain industry, with several developments and trends that have shaped the industry. Here are some of the most notable events that took place in 2023 in the blockchain industry:

 

ecosystem for entrepreneurs

  1. Increased Adoption of Blockchain Technology: In 2023, there has been a significant increase in the adoption of blockchain technology across different industries. Blockchain technology has been embraced by the finance industry, supply chain management, healthcare, and many others. Companies have been exploring the use of blockchain to improve transparency, efficiency, and security in their operations.

  2. Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs): Many countries have been exploring the creation of their own digital currencies. China, for example, launched its digital yuan in 2022, and many other countries have followed suit. In 2023, more countries have announced plans to develop their own digital currencies, with some even exploring the possibility of using blockchain technology to create their CBDCs.

  3. Decentralized Finance (DeFi): Decentralized finance (DeFi) has continued to grow in popularity in 2023. DeFi applications have been built on various blockchain platforms, such as Ethereum, and offer users a range of financial services, such as lending and borrowing, without the need for intermediaries. The total value locked in DeFi applications has continued to grow in 2023, reaching new highs.

  4. NFTs: Non-fungible tokens (NFTs) have become increasingly popular in 2023. NFTs are unique digital assets that are stored on a blockchain, and they have been used to represent a wide range of assets, such as artwork, music, and video game items. In 2023, we have seen several high-profile NFT sales, with some NFTs selling for millions of dollars.

  5. Blockchain Interoperability: Blockchain interoperability has become a focus for many blockchain platforms in 2023. Interoperability refers to the ability of different blockchain platforms to communicate with each other, which would enable the creation of a more interconnected blockchain ecosystem. Several blockchain platforms have been working on developing interoperability solutions, with some already implementing cross-chain transactions.

  6. Environmental Concerns: The environmental impact of blockchain technology has become a growing concern in 2023. The energy consumption of blockchain networks, particularly those that use proof-of-work (PoW) consensus algorithms, has been criticized for its high carbon footprint. In response, many blockchain platforms have been exploring alternative consensus algorithms, such as proof-of-stake (PoS), which consume less energy.

  7. Increased Regulation: As blockchain technology becomes more widely adopted, regulatory bodies around the world have been paying closer attention to the industry. In 2023, we have seen increased regulation of blockchain and cryptocurrency activities, particularly around issues such as money laundering and tax evasion. Some countries have introduced new legislation to regulate blockchain and cryptocurrency activities, while others have updated existing laws to include blockchain-related activities.

In conclusion, the year 2023 has been a significant year for the blockchain industry, with many developments and trends that have shaped the industry. Blockchain technology has continued to be adopted across various industries, while new trends such as CBDCs and NFTs have emerged. Blockchain interoperability and environmental concerns have also been a focus for many blockchain platforms. As blockchain technology continues to evolve, it is likely that we will see further developments and trends in the years to come.

MARKETHIVE

Tim Moseley

Gold silver rally amid less-hawkish Fed weaker USDX

Gold, silver rally amid less-hawkish Fed, weaker USDX

Gold and silver prices solidly higher in midday U.S. trading Thursday, boosted in the wake of the Federal Reserve raising its main interest rate by a quarter-point, but also suggesting rates will not continue to rise. A depreciating U.S. dollar on the foreign exchange market is also working in favor of the metals market bulls late this week. April gold was last up $47.70 at $1,996.90 and May silver was up $0.509 at $23.30.

While the Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting produced a mostly expected quarter-point rate hike, Fed Chair Powell at his press conference leaned a bit more dovish than he had been in recent months. That boosted the precious metals and briefly rallied the U.S. stock indexes. However, what rattled the U.S. stock market late in the session Wednesday was comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen at a Senate hearing that the federal government has no plans to protect all bank deposits that are not FDIC-insured.

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are sharply higher at midday.

  Consumers cash in on unwanted gold as its price soars amid a spreading bank crisis

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker and at a seven-week low. Nymex crude oil futures prices are near steady and trading around $71.00 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching around 3.45%.

Technically, April gold futures bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a fledgling uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at this week’s high of $2,014.90. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,922.30. First resistance is seen at $2,000.00 and then at $2,014.90. First support is seen at today’s low of $1,967.30 and then at $1,950.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0

May silver futures prices hit a seven-week high today. The silver bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a steep, fledgling uptrend on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $24.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $22.00. First resistance is seen at $23.50 and then at $23.75. Next support is seen at $23.00 and then at $22.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

May N.Y. copper closed up 795 points at 412.35 cents today. Prices closed near the session high and hit a three-week high today. The copper bulls have gained the overall near-term technical advantage. A two-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the January high of 435.90 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the March low of 382.20 cents. First resistance is seen at 415.00 cents and then at 420.00 cents. First support is seen at 405.00 cents and then at 400.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

By

Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Gold futures surge 32 higher after the Fed signals a pause in hikes is imminent

Gold futures surge $32 higher after the Fed signals a pause in hikes is imminent

The rally in gold spot and futures returns after a small two-day correction. On Monday of this week, gold hit a new high value at $2015 per ounce. It was approximately one year ago to the day that gold futures traded above $2000 per ounce. Gold traded to a high of $2077 in March 2022. What followed was a multi-month correction that began a conclusion in September through November of last year. On November 3 a triple bottom was identified, the multi-month correction concluded, and a multi-month rally began.

As of 6 o’clock EST p.m. gold futures basis, the most active April contract has just opened up overseas in Australia. It is currently fixed at $1972.10 which is an increase of $22.50 based on the closing price in New York.

Market participants United States are now followed by overseas traders digesting what the Federal Reserve said and did after today’s FOMC meeting. As expected, they did raise their fed funds rate by ¼%. However, for the first time since they began their rate hikes they announced a pivot. That pivot is not rate cuts but rather that rate hikes will be paused with possibly one more rate hike of ¼% in May. They also confirmed that they would continue to keep this terminal rate elevated throughout 2023, a position they have maintained for quite some time.

While many investors had hoped to hear something about a rate cut the Federal Reserve made it clear that that is not something on the table right now and we can expect to see elevated interest rates throughout the remainder of the year. The pivot was that the Federal Reserve announced that they would not continue aggressive rate hikes and that a pause of rate hikes is imminent and soon.

It was this news that took gold prices higher and move the dollar lower. Currently, the dollar is down by 0.66% with the dollar index fixed at 102.195.

However, this FOMC meeting had a quite different tone than expected in that they announced a pause for the first since it began an aggressive period of rate hikes in March 2022 taking the Fed funds rate from near to its current rate which is 4 ¾% to 5.00%.

According to the CME’s FedWatch tool, there is a 38.8% probability that they will pause the rate hikes in May and a 61.2% probability that they will enact their last rate hike in this cycle of ¼% which would take their terminal rate to 5.00% to 5.1/4%.

Today’s announcement by Chairman Powell that a pause in rate hikes is imminent was solid news for the precious metals and disruptive for US equities and the dollar which traded lower.

By

Gary Wagner

Contributing to kitco.com

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Gold prices decline after reaching 2000 yesterday as banking fears ease

Gold prices decline after reaching $2000 yesterday as banking fears ease

Yesterday gold futures surged to the highest value of 2023, however after trading to a high of $2014 gold basis is most active April 2023 contract closed well below the intraday high. The high achieved yesterday was not only unsustainable on Monday but led to a deep price decline today. Gold futures are currently trading off by 1.98% or $39.20 taking the most active contract to $1943.60. The decline of $39 today can be attributed to market sentiment shifting regarding the banking crisis as fears diminished amongst traders, gold prices also eased ahead of Wednesday's rate hike decision by the Federal Reserve.

The Fed began its today FOMC meeting today which will conclude tomorrow. According to the CME's FedWatch tool, there is an 87.1% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise rates by 25-bps or ¼%, with a 12.9% probability that the Federal Reserve will pause and announce that they are not raising rates higher this month.

On Friday gold futures closed at $1972 in New York trading, however during the remainder of Globex trading which ends at 6:00 PM EST on Friday gold traded above $1990. This was a net gain of approximately $70 on the day. This was followed by yesterday's new record yearly high at $2014. However, the Japanese candlestick that formed yesterday contained a very small real body (the price between the open and closing price), with exaggerated upper and lower wicks (the vertical lines above and below the real body of a Japanese candlestick).

This type of Japanese candlestick is called a "doji" or a star when it gaps above the real body of the Japanese candlestick that occurs before it. If there is a gap between formed after the star it creates a Japanese candlestick pattern labeled as a "Three River Evening Star".

The "Three River Evening Star" is a Japanese candlestick pattern composed of three candles. The criteria for proper identification of this pattern occurs only when a stock or commodity is in an uptrend. This reversal pattern begins with a long green candle (a candle that closes above its opening price), followed by a star that gaps away from the green body, and the third day is a long red candlestick that must gap below the body of the star. The pattern can reveal a potential top or key reversal from bullish market sentiment to bearish market sentiment.

By

Gary Wagner

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Gold hits 12-mo high falls back a bit on profit taking

Gold hits 12-mo. high, falls back a bit on profit taking

Gold and silver prices are slightly up in midday U.S. trading Monday, with gold notching a 12-month high of $2,014.90 overnight, basis April Comex futures, and silver a six-week high. Some normal profit-taking pressure and chart consolidation are seen on the price pullbacks from the overnight highs. Still, safe-haven demand for the metals is present in a shaky general marketplace amid the U.S. and European banking crisis. The technical charts are also bullish for gold and silver, which continues to invite chart-based speculators to the long sides. April gold was last up $1.70 at $1,975.30 and May silver was up $0.108 at $22.565.

Global stock markets were mixed to lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are higher near midday. Banking stocks across the globe dropped Monday. Risk aversion is again keener early this week. The Swiss banking firm UBS acquired Credit Suisse over the weekend to try to stabilize the European banking system, following the collapse of two big U.S. banks in early March. The move did little to boost trader and investor confidence. "There is a general sentiment that is trending increasingly negative," said one market analyst. Said noted investor Mark Grant on CNBC when asked about the banking crisis: "It's going to get worse. It's going to be messy."

Now focus is on the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting that begins Tuesday and concludes Wednesday afternoon. There is still some debate in the marketplace regarding whether the Fed will raise its main interest rate by 25 basis points or stand pat amid the U.S. and European banking crisis. Most market watchers, however, are leaning toward a 0.25% rate increase. The 0.5% rate hike by the European Central Bank last week makes a 0.25% increase by the FOMC more likely.

  Once $2,000 breaks, gold is off to the races – Willem Middelkoop

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil futures prices are lower, hit a 15-month low and are trading around $66.25 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.4%.

There was no major U.S. economic data released Monday.

Technically, April gold futures prices hit a 12-month high early on today. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the all-time high of $2,078.80. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,900.00. First resistance is seen at $2,000 and then at today's high of $2,014.90. First support is seen at today's low of $1,970.00 and then at $1,950.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.5

May silver futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a fledgling uptrend on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $23.50. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $21.00. First resistance is seen at today's high of $22.855 and then at $23.00. Next support is seen at today's low of $22.35 and then at $22.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

May N.Y. copper closed up 565 points at 394.90 cents today. Prices closed near the session high and scored a bullish outside day up. The copper bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a two-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the March high of 417.25 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 372.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today's high of 396.10 cents and then at 400.00 cents. First support is seen at today's low of 385.50 cents and then at the March low of 382.20 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

By

Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

‘Original fear of missing out’: Gold price explodes and could test 2k after best week in 3 years – analysts

 

'Original fear of missing out': Gold price explodes and could test $2k after best week in 3 years – analysts

The gold market surged as prices saw their best week in three years amidst the fallout of the banking sector. Analysts are not ruling out a test of the $2,000 an ounce level next week as markets look past the Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting scheduled for Wednesday.

The precious metal rose from $1,867 an ounce to above $1,980 this week, posting a gain of more than $110 and its best performance since March 2020. April Comex gold futures were last trading at $1,988 an ounce, up $65 on the day.

The biggest event markets were gearing up for all week – the Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting – is now on the periphery. Markets are pricing in a 25-basis-point hike for Wednesday, but investors are more focused on the potential pause and rate cuts that could follow.

After wild swings in rate hike expectations this week, the gold market is in a winning position, according to analysts.

"Markets are concluding that we'll see the Fed go for another 25bps increase and then probably sit on it for a while and see what happens. The view from the gold perspective is that given disruptions in the banking system and the U.S. Treasury Department's willingness to help, we might get accommodation that allows inflation to hang around longer at a higher level. This is a good thing for gold," TD Securities global head of commodity strategy Bart Melek told Kitco News.

The consensus in the gold market is that the Fed will have to ease up before inflation is tamed, Melek added. And that is a massive shift in perspective from just a few weeks ago.

Another 25 bps hike might be interpreted as nothing more than a move by the Fed to keep its credibility, said Gainesville Coins precious metals expert Everett Millman. "They don't want to be seen as abandoning higher rates so quickly," Millman told Kitco News.

After Wednesday's decision, the Fed is unlikely to keep raising rates, Millman added. "Something will surely break if the Fed keeps its foot on the pedal," he said.

What the ECB told us

The European Central Bank raised the rate by 50 basis points this week, holding onto its hawkish stance despite the banking sector worries and market turbulence. RJO Futures senior market strategist Frank Cholly told Kitco News that this gave markets confidence that the Fed would also proceed with its existing plans.

"The market got its answer yesterday when ECB raised by 50 bps. Lagarde hammered the point that inflation has been too high for too long. I don't think 2% inflation is realistic. They know now they will break some things along the way," Cholly said.

Fed's new lending program

The Fed has been helping banks with liquidity issues this week, raising concern that the tightening from last year will be somewhat reversed. According to the latest data from the Fed, banks loaned $164.8 billion from two Federal Reserve backstop facilities this past week.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. estimated that the additional funding from the U.S. central bank's new 'Bank Term Funding Program' could add up to a maximum of $2 trillion in liquidity.

"It puts quantitive tightening on a bit of pause, with more money slashing around," Melek noted.

And the whole idea does not square with the Fed's efforts to tighten monetary policy, nor does it bode well in the fight against inflation, said Millman.

Testing $2,000 an ounce

With the fear of banking contagion risk spreading further, gold is very likely to test $2,000 an ounce next week before seeing some major profit-taking, analysts said.

"I would not be surprised if gold re-tested the highs from last year of above $2,000 an ounce. We can't see the future, but the banking situation gets more concerning by the day. The Fed is stuck between a rock and a hard place of trying to rescue vulnerable banks and fighting inflation," Millman explained. "Those two goals seem to be at cross purposes. Hard to raise rates higher without causing more stress in the banking system."

Melek pointed out that there is no reason why gold couldn't test $2,000 an ounce next week. "A good portion of this move higher is short-covering. But longs might have started getting in as well," Melek described.

The next big test for the gold market will be $1,975 an ounce, said Cholly. And if the precious metal gets a close above $1,950 an ounce, the momentum will continue.

Also, the fear of missing out is pushing prices higher, Cholly added. "This is the original fear of missing out. When gold gets cheap, people tend to stay away from it. But when prices go higher, people buy more," he said.

This is the opposite of what happens with other commodities, which see demand destruction once a certain price level is reached. "I thought gold would reach $2,000 sometime this year. Now, I am convinced it will be over $2,000 and will happen faster than I thought as people begin to chase the market," Cholly noted.

Next week's data

Tuesday: U.S. existing home sales

Wednesday: Fed decision

Thursday: U.S. jobless claims, new home sales

Friday: U.S. durable goods orders

By

Anna Golubova

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

The Artist that came out of the Winter