What's in store for gold price as Fed remains laser-focused on inflation and its supersized hikes?

The gold market will be wrapped up in the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision next week as analysts see the U.S. central bank ignoring the steep drop in the U.S. Q1 GDP data and remaining fixated on fighting inflation.

Gold is looking to end April down 1.7% on the month despite Friday's gains. June Comex gold futures were last trading at $1,912.20, up $21 on the day.

"April was a terrible month for gold. Many traders were surprised by another strong move higher in the U.S. dollar. Greenback's strength was driven by safe-haven flows on concerns about economic slowdown across Europe, China's zero-COVID strategy, and expectations of a rather wide interest rate differential between the dollar and its major trading partners due to the Fed's aggressive stance," OANDA senior market analyst Edward Moya told Kitco News.

The Federal Reserve, scheduled to make its interest rate decision on Wednesday, has locked itself into an aggressive rate hike cycle for the next three meetings. "The market has around 250 basis points worth of rate hikes priced in over the next 12 months," Moya said.

The big surprise this week was the U.S. economy contracting 1.4% in the first quarter. But the Fed is likely to look past that negative number because the outlook for the second quarter looks better, according to analysts.

"You have to take a look at why the economy contracted. The consumer was still strong, and the consumption was still fairly robust. But imports were one of the key reasons why. They over-delivered when you consider that exports were soft. A lot of traders shrugged the data off a bit. Nothing to change Fed rate hike expectations," Moya explained.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell will remain focused on inflation, which is tricky to control, especially considering the type of price pressures the U.S. is seeing, noted CIBC World Markets chief economist Avery Shenfeld."Some are pointing to the fact that the Fed has never achieved as sharp a deceleration in inflation as it aims to engender without causing a recession," Shenfeld said. "That's actually not our central worry because we haven't really faced this type of inflation in the past … The problem is that just as this year's spikes in such prices have made the inflation problem look worse, next year's retreats will have the CPI understating the true trend. Getting inflation down will be easier than keeping it that way unless we slow the pace of hiring and prevent a further tightening in the labor market."

Here's what to expect from the Fed

The two main things the markets are anticipating to see next week are the 50-basis-point rate hike and the start of quantitive tightening.

"We doubt that the unexpected 1.4% annualized decline in first-quarter GDP will stop the Fed from hiking its policy rate by a bigger 50bp next week or from launching quantitative tightening. The Fed will stress the ongoing strength of employment growth, the temporary impact of the Omicron wave, and the pick-up in the growth rate of final sales to private domestic purchasers, which is arguably a better gauge of underlying demand. But the bottom line is that with inflation rampant, it simply doesn't have a choice; policy needs to be tightened rapidly regardless of the costs to the real economy," said Capital Economics chief North American economist Paul Ashworth.

The minutes from the last FOMC meeting suggested that "participants generally agreed that monthly caps of about $60 billion for Treasury securities and about $35 billion for agency MBS would likely be appropriate."

Strategists at ING said they are forecasting for the Fed to start with $50 billion "being allowed to run off each month before getting up to $95bn by September."

Looking forward, however, the Fed is unlikely to get more aggressive and talk about 75-basis-point rate hikes, said ING's chief international economist James Knightley, citing the weak GDP number. "For now, our base case remains that the Fed will follow up next week's 50bp hike with 50bp increases in June and July before switching to 25bp as quantitative tightening gets up to speed. We see the Fed funds rate peaking at 3% in early 2023," Knightley clarified.

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What gold price is looking for from the Fed

The gold market is looking at the Fed to show signs of optimism, said Moya. "Is inflation peaking? You are probably going to see many traders very fixated on that," he said.

The latest core PCE price index data published on Friday suggested that core inflation peaked at 5.2% annually in March, following 5.3% reported in February, Moya noted. "This is pretty significant. It is the first time we've seen a decline since October 2020. This could help the argument that Fed could develop a soft landing and not be as aggressive once we get past super seized rate hikes," he said.

After the Fed meeting, gold could start to benefit from some safe-haven flows, especially if uncertainty in the equity markets continues, Moya added.

The $1,875 an ounce level remains good support for gold in the short term. On the upside, Moya is watching $1,940 an ounce. "If we break $1,875 on the downside, gold could fall to $1,830. But this is the level at which many technical traders become bullish. That is when you see gold testing a 200-day moving average," he said.

It is only a matter of time before gold can break above its critical psychological $2,000 an ounce level, said Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone. And the main trigger is likely to be the Fed showing some hesitancy in the face of the promised aggressive rate hikes.

"The base now appears closer to $1,800, and $2,000 is key resistance. We expect that it's just a matter of time for gold to potentially break above this threshold. A top potential catalyst is a trough in Fed's rate-hike expectations, which may not occur until the stock market declines further. The S&P 500 down about 10% in 2022 to April 28, appears to be insufficient," McGlone said. "When fed funds futures start anticipating a rate-hike cycle end, the precious metal should breach $2,000-an-ounce resistance."
 

Data to watch next week

Monday: ISM manufacturing PMI

Tuesday: Factory orders

Wednesday: Fed's interest rate decision, ADP nonfarm employment change, ISM non-manufacturing PMI

Thursday: BoE interest rate decision, U.S. initial jobless claims

Friday: U.S. nonfarm payrolls
 

By Anna Golubova

For Kitco News

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

Tim Moseley

Gold bounces off yesterday’s lows but is unable on to hold today’s highs

June 2022 gold futures opened this morning (4/29/2022) at $1895.80, far above yesterday’s low of $1871. Trading to a high of $1921.30 and settled in New York up 1.1% at $1911.70. However, on Fridays, Globex trading remains open until 6 PM EDT before closing for the weekend. As of 5:10 EDT gold has moved back below $1900 and is currently fixed at $1896.90 a net gain of $5.60 or 0.30% in afterhours trading.

The tremendous price swings evident in gold over the last couple of days likely resulted from multiple factors influencing gold prices. Investors continue to focus on next week’s FOMC meeting. It is widely anticipated that they will enact a ½ a percent interest rate hike which will go into effect at the end of next week’s meeting. Concurrently it is widely believed that the Federal Reserve will begin to reduce its balance sheet assets over the next three years. Economists polled by Bloomberg news believe that the Federal Reserve will reduce its balance sheet from the current level of $8.8 trillion to $6.4 trillion by the conclusion of 2024.

According to the CME’s FedWatch tool, there is a 99.1% probability that the Federal Reserve will announce ½ a percent rate hike. This indicator predicts a 91.9% probability that another half a percent rate hike will follow next week’s rate hike at the June FOMC meeting. The speed at which the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in an attempt to play catch-up to the spiraling level of inflation provides bearish market sentiment for gold.

Today’s release by the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the PCE report indicated that inflation continues to surge higher. The PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditure) index was up 0.9% on the month and 6.6% on the year a 42-year high. This is the highest level since 1980. Yesterday’s the BEA released advance estimates for first-quarter GDP. The U.S. economy had a major contraction during the first three months of this year due to a resurgence in Covid 19 and a decline in government stimulus. This is the first decrease in U.S. GDP in approximately two years.

These two reports will certainly lead to bullish market sentiment for gold.

Additionally, there is a major economic fallout from the ongoing war in Ukraine. Inflation globally has been pressured higher especially in food costs because both Russia and Ukraine are major exporters of grains such as corn and wheat. Russia also is a primary provider of energy products such as oil and natural gas. Russia is the 3rd largest producer of oil. This continues to support higher pricing for oil and natural gas.

Since the largest components of spiraling inflation are energy and food costs, the war in Ukraine had a significant impact on moving inflation higher.

Unquestionably, there are multiple factors and events which have influenced gold prices. The complexity of all of these components we have spoken about today are providing both bullish and bearish undertones for the safe-haven asset gold, and in fact, might be the primary cause of recent price volatility.
 

By Gary Wagner

Contributing to kitco.com

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

Tim Moseley

Western and Eastern technical studies suggest a bullish reversal in gold has occurred

Gold traded to its lowest value in the last nine trading days with market forces taking the June 2022 futures contract to $1870.90 this morning. After opening at $1886.80, gold futures drifted lower and then recovered strongly. As of 4:30 PM EDT, the most active June 2022 gold contract is fixed at $1896.20 which is a net gain of $7.50. More importantly if it finishes this Globex session at these levels it will be a strong indication that the support level at $1885 is active support. However, when we combine today's price range with Eastern and Western technical analysis a case can be made that a pivot or key reversal has resulted from today's price action.

Chart #1 is a daily gold chart that we have used and published in which we highlighted the support level we had identified at $1885. This chart also clearly illustrates that the intraday low this morning moved just below gold's 100-day moving average.

Chart # 2 is the daily chart enlarged to better view the daily Japanese candlestick to identify it. The candlestick chart allows us to easily visualize the open and closing price, represented as a rectangle. The rectangle is filled in green, indicating that the close is currently above the opening price (a red candle indicates that the current pricing or the close is below its opening price). In the case of today's open and closing range, which is labeled as the "real body" in a candlestick chart, we can see that it opened and closed above the support at $1885 that we have identified.

A single Japanese candlestick can also be identified. The candlestick that formed today can be branded as a "Hammer." This single candlestick is part of a group known as the umbrella lines and consists of four primary candles labeled; hammer, shooting star, hangman, and inverted hammer. Umbrella lines are candles that show either very long lower shadows and small bodies near the top of the trading range or very long upper shadows and small bodies near the bottom of the trading range.

The "Hammer – Hangman" is the same except for their location within a trend. Therefore, depending on its location, it will be interpreted as a bullish or a bearish candlestick. If it appears during a downtrend, it can indicate that the correction has concluded. In such places, we name it a hammer. If the same candlestick appears after a defined uptrend, it is labeled as a "Hang-man."

While a single candlestick cannot indicate a potential pivot or reversal if it occurs within other variables, it can be a strong indication that a bullish reversal is taking place. Today's low fell below the 100-day moving average creating a long lower wick. This long lower wick occurs below both the open and closing price, which illustrates that when prices moved to today's low, buyers quickly stepped into the market and bought the dip. These buyers could be covering short positions or initiating long positions. Also, the real body (which is created from the open and closing price) of today's candlestick occurs above the support level at $1885.

This becomes an extremely important and valid piece of information,n if tomorrow's candlestick is a long green candle with a higher high and a higher low than today's, it would be labeled as a confirming candle. All of these factors would strengthen the assumption that the correction, which began on April 18, taking gold from $2003 per ounce to today's low of $1870, has concluded.

By Gary Wagner

Contributing to kitco.com

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

Tim Moseley

Gold firms as investors digest China, inflation, and global economic contraction

Gold futures opened at $1899.60, traded to a low of $1896.30, and then recovered back above $1900 per ounce. As of 4:18 PM EDT gold futures basis, the most active June 2022 contract is currently trading up $9.30 and fixed at $1905.30. Gold’s reversal from its price decline over the last seven trading days is being supported by multiple factors and events.

Most evident is renewed concern by investors regarding China’s worsening Covid-19 infection rates, which has resulted in lockdowns in major Chinese cities which now include areas of Beijing. Over 500,000 cases of Covid-19 have been reported in Shanghai as hazmat-wearing patrols continue to enforce lockdowns throughout the city.

Shanghai is a major port city, and its shutdown has led to the absence of goods being shipped abroad, disrupting the supply chain to the United States of electronics and semiconductors vital to the automotive and electronics industry.

Real concerns about a global economic contraction resulting from China’s lockdowns shook equity markets worldwide. Shipping disruption was a root cause that led to Chinese equity markets selling off dramatically, which had a tremendous impact on U.S. equities today as all major indices experienced deep declines. The Dow lost 809 points or 2.38%, the S&P 500 declined by 2.81%, and the tech-heavy NASDAQ composite dropped dramatically, losing 3.95% or 514 points.

The uptick of Covid-19 infections in China and subsequent lockdowns have raised concerns that inflation will continue to rise and has not peaked as the Federal Reserve has maintained it would. When added to current geopolitical uncertainty regarding the war in Ukraine, these issues are at the core of today’s bullish market sentiment in gold as a safe-haven asset and hedge against both inflation fears and the emergence of risk-off market sentiment. Tapering the bullish market sentiment for gold is dollar strength, along with the potential for the Federal Reserve to initiate a series of rapid rate hikes of ½ a percent at each of the next two FOMC meetings.
 

By Gary Wagner

Contributing to kitco.com

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

Tim Moseley