Will 1800 bring the gold bulls back? Analysts look for follow-through buying next week

Will $1,800 bring the gold bulls back? Analysts look for follow-through buying next week

rowing expectations that the Federal Reserve will slow the pace of rate hikes are creating new momentum in the gold market as prices ended the week above $1,800 an ounce. However, some analysts aren't entirely convinced that new capital is coming into the market.

Analysts said they are anxious to see if the precious metal can attract some follow-through buying next week and solidly break out above its 200-day moving average, something it hasn't done since February.

Not only is gold starting December off on the front foot, but its 7% rally during November was its best performance since May 2021.

Gold's solid finish to the week comes after the U.S. government reported substantial employment gains and higher wages for November.

Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said 263,000 jobs were created in November; economists expected job gains of 200,000. At the same time, wages increased 5.1% for the year, well above expectations.

Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, said that sentiment is improving with traders now looking to buy the dips instead of selling the rallies; however, he added that there is still little bullish conviction in the market and that needs to change if prices are going to consolidate at current levels.

"From a momentum perspective, we still need to do a little bit more work," he said. "Momentum traders are still not in a hurry to get into gold."

Kevin Grady, president of Phoenix Futures and Options, said that gold's future remains tied to the Federal Reserve and its aggressive monetary policy stance.

Gold's month-end rally started in earnest Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said it could be appropriate for the U.S. central bank to slow its pace of tightening in December.

However, Grady noted that despite the dovish tilt, the Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates and that will keep many gold investors on the sidelines.

Bitcoin price dips below $17K as recession fears rise to the surface

He added that he sees the current rally as further short-covering, which is not sustainable.

"You don't want to be short gold if the Fed is going to raise interest rates by 50 basis points," he said. "But people are not saying let's get long gold at $1,800; they are saying let's not be short."

Edward Moya, senior North American market analyst at OANDA, said that given gold's move this past week, he would expect to see some consolidation in the near term.

He added that next week is a relatively quiet one for economic data and traders will probably keep a low profile as they wait for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision on Dec. 14.

However, he added that he would look to buy gold as it tests the bottom of its new trading range.

"I'm slightly bearish on gold right now, but if it drops $20 from here, then I would be bullish," he said.

Moya added that long-term, although the jobs data remains persistently strong, other areas of the economy continue to weaken.

He said that after the holidays, he expects to see significant demand destruction as consumers try to pay their bills. This environment will force the Federal Reserve to slow the pace of its rate hikes and even lead to the much-awaited pivot.

"Inflation is still going to be sticky and tricky to navigate, but we are not seeing a risk that the Fed Funds rate goes to 6%," he said. "The Fed is still going to downshift and that will be good for gold."

Heading into the weekend, the CME Fed Watch Tool shows that markets see a nearly 80% chance that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 50 basis points later this month. Markets still see a terminal rate between 5.0% and 5.25%.

Along with economic data, market analysts warn investors to keep an eye on headlines surrounding next week's OPEC+ output decision.

The group of 23 oil-producing nations led by Saudi Arabia and Russia will meet Sunday, with markets expecting the group to announce more production cuts, which would increase fears of a recession and higher inflation.

Next week's data

Monday: ISM services PMI, Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy decision

Wednesday: Bank of Canada monetary policy decision

Friday: Producer Price Index, preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment

By Neils Christensen

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Solid performances from gold amp silver and a jobs report above expectations

Solid performances from gold & silver and a jobs report above expectations

Solid performances from gold & silver and a jobs report above expectations

Both gold and silver had stellar performances this week. This week the precious metals moved on both the jobs report and chairman Powell’s speech on Wednesday.

Gold futures opened today at $1817 and traded to a low of $1791.80 before substantially recovering. As of 4:00 PM EST, the most active February 2023 contract is fixed at $1812.20 after factoring in today’s price decline of $3.10. Silver futures basis the most active March contract opened at $22.975, traded to a low of $22.48, and is currently fixed at $23.37 after factoring in today’s gain of $0.529 or 2.32%. The primary reason that gold had a fractional decline and silver had a solid gain was today’s jobs report which was bullish for silver and slightly bearish for gold.

However, the weekly gains in both gold and silver reveal a more complete story, with the precious metals reacting to an abundant amount of the major events this week. Gold futures opened on Monday at $1756 and is currently fixed at $1812.20 posting a weekly net gain of approximately $56 or 3.189%. Silver’s performance was even more stellar this week opening at $21.52 and is currently fixed at $23.365 resulting in a weekly gain of approximately $1.85 or 8.66%.

The November jobs report

By far the largest factor moving the precious metals this week was Wednesday’s speech by Chairman Jerome Powell in Washington. The jobs report could have a nuanced effect on the Federal Reserve’s upcoming rate hikes as well. Last month resulted in 263,000 additional jobs. Although this is the lowest number since December 2020, November’s additional jobs came in well above forecasts. Economists surveyed by Refinitiv predicted that only 200,000 new jobs were added last month. The unemployment rate remained at 3.7%. The report revealed that the labor market continues to be extremely tight resulting in a smaller number of individuals being hired for holiday employment. The report will also factor into the decisions of Federal Reserve members as they meet this month for the last FOMC meeting of the year. Gold traded fractionally lower, in response to today’s nonfarm payroll jobs report.

Levels to watch in gold futures from now until the end of Q1 2023

Technical evidence now supports the fact that market sentiment for gold had a major shift expressed in the charts as a reversal from exceedingly bearish to bullish beginning in November. The chart above is a daily candlestick chart of gold futures.

November 3 marked the beginning of a major rally in gold. After trading to a low of $1621 gold prices have surged to a high of $1818.70 today. This has resulted in gold prices gaining approximately 10.54% in the last month.

Our technical studies indicate that the current level of support is between $1790 and $1802. The upper level of support is based on the 200-day moving average, and the lower level is based on the most recent top of $1791 that occurred in the middle of November. We also see a much wider band of resistance with minor resistance occurring at $1824.60 based on a top that occurred during the first week of August and major resistance at $1883 which is based upon a top that occurred during the first part of June.

We have also created a Fibonacci extension to forecast where gold prices could go by the end of Q1 – Q2 2023. This was created by measuring the price gains from the low of $1621 on November 3 to the high achieved in mid-November at $1791.30. We then began a Fibonacci extension from the minor correction that occurred towards the end of November when gold prices sold off to a low of $1719. Based on this study we are predicting that gold could trade as high as $1955 by the middle of 2023.

The largest takeaway from recent changes in the price of gold is that the rally which began on November 3 is signaling that a major pivot of market sentiment by investors in both gold and silver from bearish to bullish took place. Our technical studies presented today indicate that it is likely that that rally will continue not only through the end of this year but into the first half of 2023.

By Gary Wagner

Contributing to kitco.com

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Gold silver rally amid bullish outside markets dovish Powell

Gold, silver rally amid bullish outside markets, dovish Powell

Gold and silver prices are sharply higher in midday U.S. trading Thursday, with gold notching a 3.5-month high and silver a six-month high. A slumping U.S. dollar index, higher crude oil prices and falling U.S. Treasury yields on this day are all boosting the precious metals markets. 

March silver futures prices hit a six-month high today. The silver bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a choppy three-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $24.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $20.79. First resistance is seen at today's high of $22.945 and then at $23.00. Next support is seen at today's low of $22.24 and then at $22.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

March N.Y. copper closed up 640 points at 380.25 cents today. Prices closed near the session high today. The copper bulls have thet overall near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the November high of 394.70 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 350.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 385.00 cents and then at 390.00 cents. First support is seen at today's low of 373.50 cents and then at 365.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

lean by the U.S. central bank is also fueling the metals markets bulls today. February gold was last up $56.60 at $1,816.50 and March silver was up $1.034 at $22.82.

The marketplace deemed Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's highly anticipated speech at the Brookings Institution Wednesday afternoon as leaning dovish on U.S. monetary policy. That rallied the U.S. stock market, pressured the U.S. dollar index and dropped U.S. Treasury yields. Gold and silver prices rallied in the aftermath of Powell's remarks. He said the U.S. central bank could slow the pace of monetary policy tightening as soon as the FOMC meeting in two weeks. However, Powell said the Fed will need to hold policy at restrictive levels “for some time.” Powell added that inflation remains far too high and that future rate hikes are warranted.

Global stock markets were mostly firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are weaker at midday following strong gains posted Wednesday.

Traders continue to monitor the civil unrest in China. It seems the situation is not spiraling out of control, but neither is it fading away. Reports say China is relaxing some its Covid lockdowns (likely due to the public protests), while at the same time China says new Covid infections are declining and vaccinations are on the rise. Relaxed Covid restrictions in the world's second-largest economy suggest better economic strength for China, which in turn would mean better demand for metals.

GLD positioning itself for future growth with second custodian for its gold

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index sharply lower and hitting a 3.5-month low. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $82.25 a barrel. There have been some reports OPEC at its meeting early next week will consider cutting its collective crude oil production. Other reports say the cartel will leave its production unchanged. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently 3.556%.

Focus is now on Friday morning's U.S. employment situation report for November. The key non-farm payrolls figure is expected to come in at up 200,000, compared to the rise of 261,000 seen in the October report.

Technically,February gold futures prices hit a 3.5-month high today. The gold futures bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage and gained more power today. Prices are in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $1,850.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at this week's low of $1,752.90. First resistance is seen at today's high of $1,818.40 and then at the August high of $1,836.70. First support is seen at $1,800.00 and then at today's low of $1,782.90. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

March silver futures prices hit a six-month high today. The silver bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a choppy three-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $24.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $20.79. First resistance is seen at today's high of $22.945 and then at $23.00. Next support is seen at today's low of $22.24 and then at $22.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

March N.Y. copper closed up 640 points at 380.25 cents today. Prices closed near the session high today. The copper bulls have thet overall near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the November high of 394.70 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 350.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 385.00 cents and then at 390.00 cents. First support is seen at today's low of 373.50 cents and then at 365.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

By Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Investors focus on Powell’s comments which put gold back into rally mode

Investors focus on Powell's comments which put gold back into rally mode

Today gold futures are trading solidly higher as market participants react to Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Hutchings Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy, held at the Brookings Institution in Washington. Market participants focused intently on his remarks which alluded to a dynamic change in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.

"Thus, it makes sense to moderate the pace of our rate increases as we approach the level of restraint that will be sufficient to bring inflation down … The time for moderating the pace of rate increases may come as soon as the December meeting."

However, it must be noted that the reaction by investors at large seems to focus on what they had hoped to hear which is the Fed will begin to raise rates at a slower pace rather than his nuanced message that the time required for the Federal Reserve to achieve their goal will take much longer.

"It is likely that restoring price stability will require holding policy at a restrictive level for some time … History cautions strongly against prematurely loosening policy. We will stay the course until the job is done."

As of 6:16 PM EST gold futures basis of the most active February, 2023 Comex contract is fixed at $1784.60 After factoring in today's double-digit advance comprised of dollar weakness, buyers in the market along with the rollover from the December to February contract month.

Chairman Powell's speech today diminished the concern of investors as they reacted to other members of the Federal Reserve who have been extremely vocal about upcoming interest rate hikes. Specifically, recent remarks by James Bullard underscored the hawkish intent of the Federal Reserve. Last week he commented on the need for the Federal Reserve's benchmark rate to go as high as 7% to deal with inflation. This week he said that "the Federal Reserve will likely need to keep its benchmark policy rate north of 5% for most of 2023 and into 2024 to succeed in taming inflation.”

Chairman Powell's statements were not in conflict in any way with those made earlier by James Bullard and other members of the Federal Reserve in his prepared speech. However, the chairman was able to deliver this message in a much softer tone. Chairman Powell in essence cemented a 50-basis point rate hike at the December FOMC meeting. However, he stressed that slowing the pace of rate hikes would require that the Fed maintains a restrictive monetary policy for a longer period.

Gold's recent rally from $1621 to just shy of $1800 is a reflection of a major change in the market sentiment of investors. It suggests that investors are focusing intently on inflation and that lowering inflation to restore price stability will be a multi-year process.

By Gary Wagner

Contributing to kitco.com

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Social Media Censorship Increases Controlled By Fed Agencies

Social Media Censorship Increases Controlled  By Fed Agencies

Decentralized Media Platforms On The Rise

Two investigative journalists from The Intercept published a recent article about social media censorship that captivated the internet. The account referred to leaked and litigated documents that revealed the US Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is working in tandem with tech giants to monitor online information. More specifically, what they consider is disinformation. 

The article is quite eye-opening and detailed, so I’ll summarize the crucial points in this article. It will also be enlightening as to why we so desperately need a decentralized social media marketing platform like Markethive, and what we are building is the only solution to the oppressive censorship that the social media moguls and three-letter agencies are facilitating.  


Image source: The Intercept

The authors explain that all the information in the article is based on years of internal DHS memos, emails, documents obtained via leaks and an ongoing lawsuit, and public records. This information proves the US government is actively policing information online. Their influence became apparent to the average person when the DHS announced the infamous disinformation governance board, dubbed the Ministry of Truth, earlier this year. 

Interestingly, the disinformation governance board was announced right after Elon Musk announced he would acquire Twitter. The European Union also announced its censorship push with the Digital Services Act, which will set up a Ministry of Truth in every EU country.  Although the disinformation governance board was decommissioned, the DHS is actively exploring other initiatives to police social media now that its original mandate, “the war on terror,” nears its end. 

So, behind closed doors and through pressure on private social media platforms, the US government has used its power to shape online discourse. The authors point out the three forms of information they are targeting.  

  1. Misinformation: False information spread unintentionally.
  2. Disinformation: False information spread intentionally.
  3. Malinformation: Factual information shared, typically out of context, with harmful intent (that allegedly threatens U.S. interests.)

[Or perhaps it’s easier to combine these three explanations into one category: Anything the government doesn’t agree with or like.]

A formidable text message from a Microsoft executive (a former DHS official) to a DHS director expressing, “Platforms have got to get comfortable with gov’t. It’s really interesting how hesitant they remain.” Note that Microsoft owns LinkedIn and Skype. 

The authors also highlight a recent meeting that Laura Dehmlow, an FBI official, had with executives from Twitter and mega-bank JP Morgan Chase. The topic of discussion was distrust in the US government on social media, with Laura stating that “we need a media infrastructure that is held accountable.” 

It was also cited that a formalized process for intelligence agencies to flag content on Facebook or Instagram directly and request that it be throttled or suppressed through a special Facebook portal that requires a government or law enforcement email to use. Not surprisingly,  both Facebook and the FBI declined to comment even though the portal was still live when the article was published.

When Did It All Start?

In the second part of the article, the authors pivot to discussing when all this social media censorship started happening. They identify that it began with the 2016 presidential election, which makes sense as this was around the time that fact-checking companies surfaced. 

Predictably, the pandemic exacerbated the DHS’s social media censorship. An ever-progressive number of people see through that many of the theories that the DHS and army of fact-checkers labeled conspiracies ended up being correct. And some are still in the throes of coming to light and proven as facts, not fiction akin to a horror movie. 

But the DHS’s narrative and censorship are not over. According to a DHS report obtained by the authors, its priorities for the coming year will be to fight “inaccurate information on a wide range of topics, including  “the origins of the covid-19 pandemic and the efficacy of medical procedures, racial injustice, US withdrawal from Afghanistan and the nature of US support to Ukraine.”

The authors point out that how the government defines disinformation needs to be clearly articulated, and the inherently subjective nature of what constitutes disinformation provides a broad opening for DHS officials to make politically motivated determinations about what constitutes dangerous speech. 
 
Whoever defines hate speech will have the power to censor whoever they want. This seems fine with the EU, which will police hate speech as part of the Digital Services Act mentioned above. Oddly enough, the DHS justifies its new quest by claiming that terrorism is “exacerbated by misinformation and disinformation spread online.” 

The authors accurately point out that this is just an excuse for political propaganda and point to half a dozen previous examples as proof. They admit that the extent to which the DHS affects the social media feeds of the average American is unclear; however, intelligence agencies flagged over 4,800 social media posts during the 2020 election, and 35% of them were subsequently suppressed or censored by social media. 

This statistic comes from the Cyber Security and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), which along with the FBI, met with social media platforms every month before the 2020 election. The list includes Twitter, Facebook, Reddit, Discord, LinkedIn, and even Wikipedia. It revealed that these monthly meetings between social media platforms and intelligence agencies are still ongoing.


Image source: Industrial Cyber

These monthly meetings of the private-public partnership between social media platforms and intelligence agencies were cemented in 2018, creating a new wing of the DHS, including the CISA. This new wing focused on social media election-related disinformation and was highly active in policing disinformation during the 2020 election. 

Last year, under the Biden administration, the new wing, formally known as the Countering Foreign Influence Task Force and established for election-related disinformation, was replaced with the Misinformation Disinformation and Malinformation team or MDM. This broadens their scope from disinformation produced by foreign governments to include domestic versions and focus on general MDM. 

The MDM’s job is to “counter all types of disinformation.” In other words, a task force intended to combat election disinformation expanded its scope to include whatever information the government deems to be disinformation, regardless of whether it's related to an election. 

Jen easterly, the director of CISA, appointed by President Biden, sent a text to Microsoft Representative Matthew Masterson, saying she is “trying to get us in a place where Fed can work with platforms to better understand mis/dis trends so relevant agencies can try to prebunk/debunk as useful.”

The term “pre-bunk” is disturbing when you consider it means preventing information from getting out in the first place. In other words, pre-bunk means proactive censorship, so they’ll try to silence us before we say anything!

The authors revealed that the DHS advisory committee of CISA was concerned about information that undermines “key democratic institutions” such as the courts or other sectors such as the financial system or public health measures. The CISA advisory committee, which includes Twitter’s head of legal policy, trust, and safety, Vijaya Gadde, assisted in drafting a report to the CISA director calling for an expansive role for the agency in shaping the “information ecosystem.” 

The report called on the agency to closely monitor “social media platforms of all sizes, mainstream media, cable news, hyper-partisan media, talk radio, and other online resources.” Notably, Vijaya Gadde was terminated from her position on Twitter immediately following Elon Musk’s acquisition of Twitter. 


Image source: The Intercept

The DHS Censorship Scope Widens

Unfortunately, the authors reveal that the DHS’s censorship efforts have only expanded since the Ministry of Truth was disbanded. They talk about how sub-agencies like Customs and Border Protection are somehow responsible for determining whether information on social media is accurate. 

Meanwhile, sub-agencies like the Science and Technology directorate get the final say on whether you're a bot or a human. As expected, the DHS’s online efforts are becoming so significant that they are slowly starting to eclipse the agency's original purpose of fighting terrorism. This was revealed in an internal report.pdf  obtained by the authors, which includes “domestic violent extremists” as the DHS’s primary targets.

To accomplish its new goals, the DHS will work closely with NGOs to “build resilience to the impacts of false information." This begs the question of who is funding the NGOs that are getting ever more involved in the affairs of the average person. 

The authors also note “intelligence agencies backed new startups designed to monitor the vast flow of information across social networks to better understand emerging narratives and risks.” It makes one wonder how some blockchain analytics companies got their funding. The main takeaway is that the US government's suppression and censorship of information on social media have only continued to increase.  


Image source: Markethive.com

The Solution? Decentralization 

Regardless of what is being orchestrated by these agencies and NGOs, information is still being disseminated, and nefarious actors and corporations are being exposed for the world to see. Facebook has suffered and arguably is dying because of its involvement which has become more apparent in recent years. 

Even if the centralized legacy social media platforms survive, more and more people with a voice are migrating to alternative platforms. Creatives and critical thinkers who refuse to be surveilled and silenced need a decentralized, free-thinking platform to continue their quest without the concern of looming censorship or being de-platformed. 

The technology that is available today makes it possible for social media decentralization. For a decentralized social media platform to work, you need a blockchain, a smart contract, and a decentralized, scalable, and secure cryptocurrency. Distributed data centers and cloud systems that do not rely on centralized servers are essential to minimize the risk of being tracked or shut down by centralized agenda-driven entities. 

In markethive’s case, this technology is its foundation, and the steps taken to make it impenetrable are being implemented, starting with the Markethive wallet, which houses multiple mechanisms and is the comprehensive center for all your transactions and facilitations in this decentralized ecosystem.  

With the wallet on the cusp of being launched, Markethive’s five-channel newsfeed, which includes a general newsfeed, video channel, curation, blogging interface, and conference or live streaming channel, is next to be integrated.  It means we don’t have to rely on centralized streaming platforms or upload videos parked on a “woke” video platform. 

Markethive, the company, will not police content or censor members. The community will discern what they deem unacceptable content by simply blocking an offending user. Personal configuration of algorithms will also be an effective tool for choosing who and what you want to see on your feeds. This meritocratic culture understands that individuals can think and do for themselves and not be told what is “dis, mis, or mal information.” What the autocratic powers believe to be disinformation and deem illegal is questionable and the very least. 

Markethive incorporates all facets of social media marketing, including broadcasting to other platforms, as well as the infamous social media giants. We still need to get our message out to users on these platforms. So, regarding Markethive’s blogging and video channel, any video created on the Markethive video channel is broadcasted with AI-generated summaries to the woke social media platforms. In turn, the viewer is brought back to the Markethive site to view it in its entirety. 

With an opaque summary of the topic, their artificial intelligence surveillance can’t track the nature of the content if it happens to be controversial and against their narrative. If the oppressive platforms do delete your video, it will remain on Markethive’s distributed system. It’s important to understand that all feeds or channels will be secure and remain your property. This is the solution to get your message out to people who need the truth about what’s happening worldwide. 

Markethive has many members in Russia and other parts of the world that have been seriously impacted by the global elites and governments creating false narratives and particularly sanctioning the Russian Federation, all for their personal gain. Believe it or not, the people trying to enforce these sanctions and censorship standards are the most corrupt of all. 

Markethive is the answer for those who have fallen through the cracks in the chaos the powerful few continue to instigate. The direction Markethive is going is to create an ecosystem that does not depend on greedy leaders or the political climate. Its promise and vision of what it's all about are to give access to the platform to everyone worldwide. 

 

 

Editor and Chief Markethive: Deb Williams. (Australia) I thrive on progress and champion freedom of speech. I embrace "Change" with a passion, and my purpose in life is to enlighten people to accept and move forward with enthusiasm. Find me at my Markethive Profile Page | My Twitter Account | and my LinkedIn Profile.

 

 

 

 

Also published @ BeforeIt’sNews.com; Steemit.com

 

 

Tim Moseley

Gold silver sell off as USDX rebounds from overnight low

Gold, silver sell off as USDX rebounds from overnight low

Gold and silver prices are lower and nearer their daily lows in midday U.S. trading Monday. The metals are seeing selling pressure as the U.S. dollar index has rallied after trading solidly lower overnight. There are also worries about global demand for metals as unrest in China, the world's second-largest economy, is likely to further squelch that country's economic growth. February gold was last down $11.10 at $1,757.90 and March silver was down $0.474 at $21.135.

The marketplace is very uneasy to start the trading week amid civil unrest in China over its strict zero-Covid policies. Reports said there were demonstrations across China over the weekend. It's the largest show of discontent since the Tiananmen Square protests in 1989. China is the world's second-largest economy and the most populous nation. The geopolitical and economic consequences of a further escalation in protests and any crackdown by Chinese authorities would be huge. However, is this situation escalates, look for better safe-haven demand for gold and silver.

Other big market events this week include a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Wednesday afternoon and the U.S. employment report from the Labor Department on Friday morning.

Silver jewelry demand hits records, makes headlines in high fashion

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher after trading solidly lower overnight. Nymex crude oil prices are weaker but well off the 10-month low hit overnight and are trading around $75.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently 3.69%.

Technically, February gold futures prices scored a bearish "outside day" down on the daily bar chart. The gold futures bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but need to show fresh power soon to keep it. Bulls' next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the November high of $1,806.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,700.00. First resistance is seen at today's high of $1,778.50 and then at $1,790.00. First support is seen at $1,750.00 and then at last week's low of $1,733.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

March silver futures bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a choppy three-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the November high of $22.50. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $19.00. First resistance is seen at today's high of $21.815 and then at $22.00. Next support is seen at $21.00 and then at last week's low of $20.79. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

March N.Y. copper closed down 370 points at 359.35 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session high and hit a three-week low today. The copper bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the November high of 394.70 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 330.00 cents. First resistance is seen at Friday's high of 369.35 cents and then at 375.00 cents. First support is seen at today's low of 354.70 cents and then at 350.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

By Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

 

Tim Moseley

Don’t Settle For What Life Gives You

Don't Settle For What Life Gives You

NATURE

Introduction

I don’t know what it is that brings on “the gray.” For some people, it comes when they are in their 30s, while others experience it in their 40s or 50s. It may come when you lose a loved one or realize that your friends have moved on from the way things were when you were younger. Maybe it’s triggered by a career change, an empty nest or a divorce. Whatever the cause (and there may be many), I want to share with you what I will never accept as my fate: living a life where I am miserable because of choices made by myself or others around me.

Don’t accept a life in which you are unhappy when you realize that there are ways to change it.

Don’t accept a life in which you are unhappy when you realize that there are ways to change it.

Don’t accept a life where you are not happy, because there are ways to make yourself happier than you have been before.

Don’t accept a life where you are not satisfied with what has happened or who you have become in the past. It is never too late to start doing something different than what has been done before!

Don’t accept a life where you feel like giving up and settling for less than what your heart truly desires—because this will only lead down an empty road filled with regret and disappointment!

Instead of settling for “good enough," strive for greatness by setting goals for yourself and achieving them one step at time (just like those little steps on stairs).

Don’t accept a job that you know will not bring out the best in you.

It is important to be honest with yourself. Don’t accept a job that you know will not bring out the best in you. If a particular job isn’t appealing to you, there must be another one out there waiting for your attention and skill set.

If you are unhappy at work, take action to make it better or find another place of employment where someone will appreciate what they have!

Don’t accept anything less than what you want for your kids, your family and yourself.

Don’t accept anything less than what you want for your kids, family and yourself. Don’t let anyone tell you what you should do and don’t let anyone tell you what you can’t do.

Don’t accept that things can never change.

  • Don't settle for what life gives you.

  • Think about what you want from life and go after it. The difference between successful people and unsuccessful people is often how they handle disappointment and failure.

  • Successful people always have a plan B, C, D etc., in case their first attempt fails. Unsuccessful people get discouraged when things don’t go their way and give up quickly because they don’t believe anything is possible anymore (see point 1).

Don’t accept explanations from people who say they love you when their words and actions don’t match up.

Don’t settle for someone who says they love you, but then treats you like nothing. Don’t settle for someone who says they love you, but then hurts you. Don’t settle for someone who says they love you and promises to change, but never does. If a person has to tell you that they love you, ask yourself why? Do the words sound genuine? Or are their actions more convincing than their words?

You should not have to rely on people's word alone when it comes to matters of the heart. People can be good at lying and deceiving; however, their words are not always enough evidence to prove whether or not someone truly loves another person. There is no one perfect way of knowing whether or not someone loves us based solely on what they say; rather there are many ways in which this can be determined by observing how a person acts towards us over time – especially under adversity!

Don’t accept a life based on “shoulds,” or on what other people think is best for you.

The word “should” is a trap. It stops you from feeling good about your life and keeps you living a life based on other people's expectations.

Let’s say the boss says to you, “You should be a perfectionist at work, so I can trust you with my company more.” One day, your friend says: “You should go out with me tonight. You don't want to be stuck at home all the time! Don't worry about being tired tomorrow morning because we'll just go for coffee first thing in the morning after work! You need some fun in your life!"

What do these statements have in common? They both tell you what you should do (perfectionism at work and going out) rather than give any logical reasons why it would benefit YOU (job security, making friends). If someone tells us what we "should" do without providing any reasoning behind their statement or telling us how it will benefit US personally then they're basically saying that our feelings don't matter and that there are no other options available besides following through on their demands."

Don’t accept a situation in which someone makes you feel unappreciated or not good enough.

  • You are good enough.

  • You are not unappreciated.

  • You deserve to be treated with respect, and you deserve to be happy.

Never settle in your life!

  • Don’t let your life pass you by

  • Don’t be afraid to take risks

  • Be bold and brave, like the many visionaries in history who changed the world for good, not only for themselves but for everyone else.

Conclusion

You have to be brave and go after the life that you want, because it’s not going to come to you. You have to take responsibility for your own happiness and success by making changes in your life when necessary. Don’t accept a life without fulfillment!

Tim Moseley

Test blog by tom

The Fed is not ready to pivot now, but it might be soon

The gold market continues to hold its own as prices end the week slightly above $1,750 an ounce. The precious metal was once again thrown a lifeline by the Federal Reserve after the minutes from the November monetary policy meeting were deemed to have a dovish tilt.

According to the minutes, a majority of participants judged that a slowing in the pace of increases would likely be appropriate soon. The messaging is helping to solidify expectations that the U.S. central bank will raise interest rates by 50 basis points next month.

Although the gold market is keeping its head above the water, holding critical support levels, investors still appear to be reluctant to make any significant bullish bets. The lack of conviction is not surprising, as other pivot rumors throughout the summer have burned investors.

While the Fed is preparing to slow the pace of its rate hikes, many market analysts have pointed out that this is not a pivot. Markets still see the terminal rate in the Fed Funds above 5% and nobody knows how long rates will be kept at this level.

This will still be a difficult environment for gold. However, even if prices are capped at around $1,800, it is still important to note that despite the strong headwinds, gold continues to outperform the broader market and remains an important portfolio diversifier.

The French bank Société Générale has probably the healthiest outlook on gold. The bank made some significant adjustments to its multi-asset portfolio ahead of the new year. It is now heavily weighted in bonds. At the same time, it has only made a slight adjustment to its gold allocation. It now represents 6% of its portfolio, down from 7%.

Although the bank sees gold prices going lower next year, they still see value in holding the precious metal.

"Systemic risks are a common feature after a round of policy tightening of this kind," the analysts said. "Holding gold and CHF can help stabilize portfolio volatility, in our view."

Gold prices should be closer to $1,614 than $1,750 – Quant Insight

The system risks to the economy only continue to grow. This week Tavi Costa, portfolio manager at Crescat Capital, noted that 70% of the entire U.S. yield curve is now inverted. He added that every time this threshold has been breached, it has soon led to a recession.

Specifically, the yield on two-year notes is now 71 basis points higher than the 10-year yield. This is the widest gap in the inverted yield curve in more than 40 years.

Tavi noted that even if gold prices do go lower, there is solid value and potential in the precious metal that investors can't ignore.

With so much uncertainty in the marketplace, some analysts have said that it is only a matter of time before the Fed's slower tightening turns into outright cuts.

By Neils Christensen

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

The Fed is not ready to pivot now but it might be soon

The Fed is not ready to pivot now, but it might be soon

The gold market continues to hold its own as prices end the week slightly above $1,750 an ounce. The precious metal was once again thrown a lifeline by the Federal Reserve after the minutes from the November monetary policy meeting were deemed to have a dovish tilt.

According to the minutes, a majority of participants judged that a slowing in the pace of increases would likely be appropriate soon. The messaging is helping to solidify expectations that the U.S. central bank will raise interest rates by 50 basis points next month.

Although the gold market is keeping its head above the water, holding critical support levels, investors still appear to be reluctant to make any significant bullish bets. The lack of conviction is not surprising, as other pivot rumors throughout the summer have burned investors.

While the Fed is preparing to slow the pace of its rate hikes, many market analysts have pointed out that this is not a pivot. Markets still see the terminal rate in the Fed Funds above 5% and nobody knows how long rates will be kept at this level.

This will still be a difficult environment for gold. However, even if prices are capped at around $1,800, it is still important to note that despite the strong headwinds, gold continues to outperform the broader market and remains an important portfolio diversifier.

The French bank Société Générale has probably the healthiest outlook on gold. The bank made some significant adjustments to its multi-asset portfolio ahead of the new year. It is now heavily weighted in bonds. At the same time, it has only made a slight adjustment to its gold allocation. It now represents 6% of its portfolio, down from 7%.

Although the bank sees gold prices going lower next year, they still see value in holding the precious metal.

"Systemic risks are a common feature after a round of policy tightening of this kind," the analysts said. "Holding gold and CHF can help stabilize portfolio volatility, in our view."

Gold prices should be closer to $1,614 than $1,750 – Quant Insight

The system risks to the economy only continue to grow. This week Tavi Costa, portfolio manager at Crescat Capital, noted that 70% of the entire U.S. yield curve is now inverted. He added that every time this threshold has been breached, it has soon led to a recession.

Specifically, the yield on two-year notes is now 71 basis points higher than the 10-year yield. This is the widest gap in the inverted yield curve in more than 40 years.

Tavi noted that even if gold prices do go lower, there is solid value and potential in the precious metal that investors can't ignore.

With so much uncertainty in the marketplace, some analysts have said that it is only a matter of time before the Fed's slower tightening turns into outright cuts.

By Neils Christensen

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

 

Tim Moseley

Gold needs a new catalyst as prices end the week around 1750

Gold needs a new catalyst as prices end the week around $1,750

The gold market is holding its own at $1,750 an ounce, but analysts are warning investors not to expect a breakout move anytime soon as the precious metal is in desperate need of a new catalyst to drive prices.

According to commodity analysts, the Federal Reserve's aggressive monetary policy stance remains the most significant driver for the gold market. While the U.S. central bank has signed that it could slow the pace of rate hikes in December, investors remain reluctant to jump into the market.

Nicholas Frappell, global general manager at ABC Bullion, noted that gold's rally since the start of the month has been driven mostly by short covering, investors buying gold to cover their short trades. He added that investors are also not buying gold-backed exchange-traded products.

He said it doesn't look like any bullish momentum will last in the current environment.

"Fresh buyers are not motivated in either the Futures or ETF space," he said. "Additionally, the messaging from the Fed is that if anything, rates will stay high for longer and this will help the USD and rates – gold appears to have rallied on a slower path towards high and long."

Markets will be able to hear from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell himself when he speaks next week at an event at the Brookings Institution in Washington DC.

Although markets are looking for the Federal Reserve to slow the pace of its rate hikes to 50 basis points next month, some analysts have said that it is still too early to signal any pivot in the marketplace.

Commodity analysts at TD Securities expect hawkish comments from Powell to weigh on gold as its upside momentum has run its course.

SocGen looks for bonds to outperform equities as Fed pivots in Q2; gold remains a risk hedge

"Considering that we see buying exhaustion across several major global assets, macro headwinds for gold bears already appear to be subsiding. This points to lower risks of an extension in the pain trade for gold, particularly as Chair Powell's speech on Wednesday could provide the hawkish catalyst needed for CTAs to resume selling," the commodity analysts said.

Along with Powell's comments, a busier economic data calendar next week is also expected to add volatility to the marketplace. Economists have said that next week's employment data could impact market expectations on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.

In recent comments, Powell has said that the labor market has been too tight and the Fed would need to see more slack before it would start to ease back on its aggressive stance.

According to consensus estimates, economists forecast that about 200,000 jobs were created in November.

"Odds are that job gains will still be too high relative to the moderation we're seeking," said Avery Shenfeld, senior economist at CIBC.

Along with the economic data, gold investors will continue to pay close attention to the U.S. dollar. Carley Garner, co-founder of the brokerage firm DeCarley Trading, said that the U.S. dollar index is testing critical support around 106 points. She added that any weakness in the U.S. dollar could end up sending gold prices back above $1,800 an ounce.

Next week's data

Tuesday: U.S. Consumer confidence

Wednesday: ADP private-sector employment, Q3 GDP, pending home sales, JOLTS job opening, comments from Powell

Thursday, UK CPI, U.S. PCE personal income and spending, ISM manufacturing PMI,
 

Friday, U.S. Nonfarm payrolls

By Neils Christensen

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

 

Tim Moseley

The Artist that came out of the Winter