silver stumGoldble as USDX US bond yields rise

Gold, silver stumble as USDX, U.S. bond yields rise

Gold and silver prices are lower in midday U.S. trading Tuesday, once again pressured by a higher-valued U.S. dollar on the foreign exchange market and by rising U.S. Treasury yields that see the benchmark 10-year note yield above 4.0%. December gold was last down $7.80 at $1,656.20 and December silver was down $0.124 at $18.595.

Global stock markets were mostly firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are higher at midday. Risk appetite is keener early this week, due in part to news the new U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt affirmed Britain will roll back nearly all of its previously announced tax-cut plans that had been roiling financial markets. Stock traders continue to focus on corporate earnings reports, with the companies’ results so far beating expectations despite recession fears.

Bitcoin could fall to $3.5K as recession intensifies and stocks collapse – Gareth Soloway

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index firmer after suffering sharp losses Monday. Nymex crude oil prices are sharply lower and trading around $82.50 a barrel. The U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is presently fetching 4.025%.

Technically,gold futures bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the October high of $1,738.70. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the September low of $1,622.20. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $1,674.30 and then at $1,688.90. First support is seen at the October low of $1,645.60 and then at $1,622.20. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0

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The silver bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $20.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the September low of $17.40. First resistance is seen at $19.00 and then at $19.29. Next support is seen at this week’s low of $18.155 and then at $18.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.

December N.Y. copper closed down 600 points at 335.70 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a two-week low today. The copper bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the September high of 369.25 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the July low of 315.55 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 346.75 and then at last week’s high of 350.10 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 333.90 cents and then at 330.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

By Gary WagnerContributing to kitco.com.

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

Tim Moseley

Gold struggles in light of weak dollar as rate hikes loom

Gold struggles in light of weak dollar as rate hikes loom

Gold continues to struggle even in light of a strong decline in the U.S. dollar. Gold had respectable gains in New York trading today, but gave up those gains in Globex trading. By the close of trading in New York today gold had added $15.10 of value and was fixed at $1664. As of 4:30 PM, EDT gold futures basis most active December contract is up only $5.80 or 0.35% and fixed at $1654.70. The December contract traded to a high of $1674.30 and a low of $1649.10 after opening just $0.80 above today’s low.

 

Dollar weakness was a major contributor in supporting gold prices from moving lower. Currently, the dollar is down 1.182 points or -1.04% and fixed at 112.025. As seen through the KGX (Kitco Gold Index) market participants were predominantly sellers with spot gold currently fixed at $1649. That is a net gain of $4.60 today. However, on closer inspection market participants were aggressive sellers taking physical gold lower by $12.80. If not for dollar weakness which added $17.40 gold’s gains would have been nonexistent.

Market participants witnessed a strong risk-on sentiment in U.S. equities. The Dow gained 1.86%, the S&P 500 gained 2.65%, and the NASDAQ composite gained 3.43%.

Market participants trading the precious metals are still genuinely concerned about the remaining two FOMC meetings in November and December. It is widely anticipated that there is a high probability that both Federal Reserve meetings will contain interest rate hikes of 75 basis points each.

According to the CME’s FedWatch tool, there is a 97.4% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise rates by ¾% at the November FOMC meeting and a 65.3% probability of a ¾% rate hike in December. This would take the fed funds rate from between 300 and 325 basis points currently to between 450 to 475 basis points by the end of 2022.

Last week market participants were active buyers of both 30-year bonds and 10-year Treasury Notes resulting in an inverted yield curve with yields in the 10-year Notes priced slightly above the 30-year bond. Today that inversion has been neutralized with both the 10-year note and the 30-year bond yielding 4.015%.

Inflation continues to run at a record level with the latest CPI core data revealing a slight uptick in inflationary pressures from 6.3% in August to 6.5% in September. However, the Eurozone is experiencing much higher levels of inflation than the United States with the CPI index registering at approximately 10%. As long as inflation remains extremely hot and persistent it is unlikely that the Federal Reserve will reduce the magnitude and frequency of rate hikes. It remains highly likely that the extremely aggressive monetary policy of the Federal Reserve will result in a recession in the first quarter of 2023. The question remains how deep of a recession will result from the Fed's aggressive rate hikes.

By Gary Wagner

Contributing to kitco.com.

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

Tim Moseley

Gold prices drop sharply as US CPI rises 04 in September

Gold prices drop sharply as U.S. CPI rises 0.4% in September

Gold prices have dropped sharply into negative territory as U.S. consumer prices rose more than expected in September, raising prospects that the Federal Reserve will maintain its aggressive monetary policy stance through the rest of the year.

Thursday, the U.S. Labor Department said its much-anticipated Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% last month after a 0.1% rise in August. Economists were looking for an increase of 0.2%.

The report said that annual inflation rose 8.2% last month. Economists were expecting to see a rise of 8.1%.

Core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, rose sharply by 0.6% last month. According to consensus estimates, economists were looking for a 0.4% rise.

For the year, core inflation rose 6.6%.

The gold market has been unable to withstand solid momentum in the U.S. dollar and rising bond yields. December gold futures last traded at $1,666 an ounce, down 0.69% on the day.

The report noted that the inflation threat is growing and flowing through to the general economy as food, shelter and medical costs outpace falling energy prices. The report said gasoline prices fell 4.9% last month, with the overall energy index dropping 2.1%.

The hotter-than-expected inflation data came one day after the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s September monetary policy meeting showed that the central bank is committed to cooling down consumer prices even as the economy weakens.

In reaction to the CPI numbers, markets have fully priced in a 75-basis point move next month and see a small possibility of a full 1% move. Expectations for a 75-basis point hike also jumped sharply for December.

Analysts have said that rising interest rates, supporting the U.S. dollar at a 20-year high will continue to be strong headwinds for gold prices.

By Neils Christensen

For Kitco News

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

Tim Moseley

GoldSilver – Where is the bottom?

Gold/Silver – Where is the bottom?

It was another volatile week in the markets, both for the longs and the shorts, with the technical backdrop continuing to deteriorate. Rampant inflation reaffirms the Federal Reserve will continue to reverse the loose monetary policy after CPI on an annualized basis came in at 8.2% versus expectations of 8.1%. The latest CME Fedwatch tool is pricing in a 97.8% chance of a 75 bps rate hike at the November 2 meeting and now a 2.2% of 100 bps. Meanwhile (as I am writing this), the U.K. Finance Minister was fired as they now attempt to reverse the proposed dovish economic plans previously outlined. It seems unwinding over a decade of quantitative easing and interest rates near zero will be very difficult, resulting in stocks, bonds, and housing crashing even from these levels.

When will the Federal Reserve pivot? Unemployment is hovering near multi-decade lows, and economic data continues to beat expectations, keeping the Fed's foot on the rate hike cycle until spring 2023. The first sign of a rate "cut" is not priced in until fall 2023, meaning this bear market is not even close to over. The Fed is attempting to remove all the excess leverage and irresponsible risk-taking in the market while crushing inflation at the same time. I say, "Good luck with that," and "operation break stuff" is underway.

Daily Gold Chart

Our Strategy

If you have been reading my commentary or working closely with me, you would know that my view on Gold and Silver had changed after the early October bounce. Both precious metals are lumped in with other risk assets with an 80%+ inverse correlation to the U.S. Dollar. That correlation alone, bundled with the Global liquidation of risk assets, will keep both metals in bear markets. However, before you cancel me, I acknowledge that both assets could quickly change directions resulting in another massive short-covering squeeze. That is why we maintain upside exposure through calculated option call spreads with extended durations to give us the most prolonged opportunity for "something" to give way.

We have found that trading accounts with limited capital or those with a risk-averse posture consider calculated option strategies to gain market exposure by limiting downside risk and maintaining a position in the market. If you have never traded futures or commodities or would like to learn more about our options strategies, I just completed a new educational guide that answers all your questions on transferring your current investing skills into trading "real assets," such as the 1000 oz Silver futures contract. You can request yours here:Trade Metals, Transition your Experience Book.

By Phillip Streible

Contributing to kitco.com

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

Tim Moseley

Gold price drops nearly 90 from October highs Wall Street turns exceedingly bearish on precious metals

Gold price drops nearly $90 from October highs, Wall Street turns exceedingly bearish on precious metals

The short-term outlook on gold remains bleak, with analysts turning overwhelmingly bearish on the precious metal as the $1,650 an ounce level breaks.

The precious metal is down nearly $90 from its October highs of $1,737 an ounce, with December Comex gold futures last trading at $1,648.70, down 1.69% on the day.

The technical picture is also quite bearish as the selloff opens the door to $1,600 an ounce. "Near-term technicals remain bearish," Kitco's senior analyst Jim Wyckoff said Friday. "Gold and silver bulls remain perplexed by their metals' inability to catch a safe-haven bid amid heightened geopolitical and marketplace uncertainties."

The main culprit making things challenging for gold is the hotter-than-expected inflation forcing the market to re-price the aggressive Federal Reserve rate hike expectations. And that is giving the U.S. dollar an additional boost.

"Gold is still struggling. In the cash market, it has fallen seven of the past eight sessions. The momentum indicators are trending lower," said Bannockburn Global Forex managing director Marc Chandler. "A break of $1,642 may signal a retest on $1,615. The most bullish development would be a move above $1,685. A close above $1,672 could help stabilize the tone."

Survey results

Kitco's weekly gold survey results revealed that Wall Street is now exceedingly bearish on gold prices next week. Out of nine analysts participating in the survey, 78% said they expected lower prices next week, and only 22% were bullish. There were no votes expecting sideways action next week.

The Main Street side remained bullish for next week, but the bearish segment was growing. Out of 858 retail participants, 45% expected higher prices, 35% called for a move lower, and 20% remained neutral, Kitco's survey showed.Kitco Gol

Re-pricing of Fed's rate hike expectations

Keeping the U.S. dollar near 20-year highs are the expectations of a 99.7% chance of another 75-basis-point hike in November, a 74% chance of an additional 50-basis-point hike in December, and possibly a series of smaller rate hikes in February and in March, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Gold is a 2023 story, but these are the currencies to buy it in right now

As long this macro-environment exists, there will be more downside in gold.

"December gold has not finished off the short-term downtrend on its daily chart, with the target still down near $1,645. This past week got close as the contract hit a low of $1,648.30," said Darin Newsom Analysis president Darin Newsom. "The flip-side of the coin is the U.S. dollar index continues to indicate its intermediate-term trend has turned down, from a technical point of view."

And even those few analysts who remain bullish on the precious metal in the short-term are not ruling out a drop lower before the rally kicks in. "I am a bull on gold and silver, but I feel we will see the March 2020 lows (at least in the shares) taken out first," said VR Metals/Resource Letter publisher Mark Leibovit.

By Anna Golubova

For Kitco News

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

Tim Moseley

Connect Coin

Connect Coin

Connect Coin

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We pay you to produce content and we pay you for shopping with our Merchants. You get paid and connect coins, our very own cryptocurrency. When you acquire connect coins, you can use them like cash to spend and connect social Merchants. You can save them and let them grow in value or you can sell them on the connect exchange for your local currency. We'll connect coins to grow to ten dollars.

Per coin, or eventually, one hundred dollars per coin, we hope so the more connect ambassadors we have, the more consumers, save money and get paid for their data. We will have. This will translate into a higher coin price. Only time will tell how valuable connect coins will become. Connect coins are a centralized cryptocurrency and they are only used inside of the connect social economy.

Join, connect, social and start earning connect. Coins today connect social. It pays to be connected. https://iamconnect.com/referral/f868c6e38ec24a219d2f5a61e4cde009/4971

 

Tim Moseley

How To Resist CBDCs5 Ways You Can Opt Out of This Dystopian Future

How To Resist CBDCs—5 Ways You Can Opt Out of This Dystopian Future

by Nick Giambruno, contributor, International Man Communique

 

How To Resist CBDCs—5 Ways You Can Opt Out of This Dystopian Future

 

There's an excellent chance governments worldwide will soon force their citizens to use central bank digital currencies (CBDCs).

CBDCs enable all sorts of horrible, totalitarian things. They allow governments to track and control every penny you earn, save, and spend. They are a powerful tool for politicians to confiscate and redistribute wealth as they see fit.

CBDCs will make it possible for central banks to impose deeply negative interest rates, which are really just a euphemism for a tax on saving money. Governments could program CBDCs to have an expiration date—like some airline frequent flyer miles—forcing people to spend them, for example, before the end of the month when they’d become worthless.

CBDCs will enable devious social engineering by allowing governments to punish and reward people in ways they previously couldn't. Suppose governments impose lockdowns again for flu season, so-called "climate change," or whatever pretext they find convenient. CBDCs could be programmed to only work in a geographic area. For example, your payments could be denied if you travel more than a mile from your home during a lockdown.

Suppose the people in charge want to encourage people to take a pharmaceutical product. With CBDCs, they could easily deposit money into the accounts of those who complied and deduct it from those who didn't.

Undoubtedly, CBDCs will be paired with a sort of social credit system. Such a system is already in place in China today. In the West, it’s likely to come in a different flavor. Perhaps CBDCs will be paired with an ESG score.

Did you commit a thought crime on social media? Or perhaps you read too many politically incorrect articles online? Did you exceed your monthly meat consumption allowance? Then expect some financial punishment thanks to the CBDCs.

CBDCs are, without a doubt, an instrument of enslavement. They represent a quantum leap backward in human freedom. Unfortunately, they’re coming soon.

Governments will probably mandate CBDCs as a "solution" when the next real or contrived crisis hits—which is likely not far off. That’s the bad news.

 

The Good News Is That CBDCs Are Destined To Fail

Despite all the hype, CBDCs are nothing but the same fiat currency scam on steroids. It’s doubtful CBDCs can save otherwise fundamentally unsound currencies—as I believe all fiat currencies are. If the current fiat system is not viable, then CBDCs are even less viable as they enable the government to engage in even more currency debasement.

Would a CBDC have saved the Zimbabwe dollar, the Venezuelan bolivar, the Argentine peso, or the Lebanese lira? I don’t think so. And a CBDC won’t save the US dollar or the euro either. But that doesn't mean governments won't try implementing CBDCs… with immensely destructive consequences for many people.

While I believe CBDCs will inevitably self-destruct, nobody knows how long it will take for that to happen. Communism was also destined to self-destruct, but it took generations. I don’t think it will take nearly that long for CBDCs to fail, but that’s just my guess. Therefore, the big question everyone should be asking is this… 

What Will You Do When The Government Forces Everyone To Use CBDCs?

I believe it's incumbent on free individuals to reject CBDCs. It will be challenging, but the reward—maintaining your sovereignty—will be priceless. Below are five ways you can do just that.

It’s important to remember the wise words of Ron Paul:

"What none of them (politicians) will admit is that the market is more powerful than the central banks and all the economic planners put together. Although it may take time, the market always wins."

No matter what edicts, decrees, or laws that politicians pass, they will never be able to fully extinguish the desire of people to use alternatives to CBDCs. That cracks the door open to other options.

For example, consider that Venezuela, Zimbabwe, Argentina, Lebanon, and many other countries restrict the use of US dollars today. However, all that does is create a thriving black market—or, more accurately, a free market—for US dollars and a parallel financial system.

We can expect the same kind of dynamic if governments impose CBDCs. I have no doubt significant parallel systems and underground markets will naturally emerge. Anyone who wants to avoid CBDC enslavement must learn to swim in those waters. Below are five steps anyone can take to opt-out of this dystopia.

 

Step #1: Use Physical Gold and Silver

Avoiding CBDCs means using alternative forms of money. Although people use money every day, few consider what it actually is or what makes for good money. Asking people, "what is money?" is like asking a fish, "what is water?" The fish probably doesn’t even notice the water unless it becomes polluted or something is wrong.

Money is a good, just like any other in an economy. And it isn’t a complex notion to grasp. It doesn’t require you to understand convoluted math formulas and complicated theories—as the gatekeepers in academia, media, and government mislead many folks into believing.

Understanding money is intuitive and straightforward. Money is simply something useful for storing and exchanging value. That’s it. Think of money as a claim on human time. It’s like stored life or energy.

Unfortunately, today most of humanity thoughtlessly accepts whatever their government gives them as money. However, money does not need to come from the government. That’s a total misnomer that the average person has been hoodwinked into believing.

It would be similar to transporting yourself back in time and asking the average person in the Soviet Union, "Where do shoes come from?" They would say, "Well, the government makes the shoes. Where else could they come from? Who else could make the shoes?"

It’s the same mentality here regarding money today—except it’s much more widespread. The truth is money doesn’t need to come from the government any more than shoes do. People have used stones, glass beads, salt, cattle, seashells, gold, silver, and other commodities as money at different times. However, for over 2,500 years, gold has been mankind’s most enduring form of money.

Gold didn’t become money by accident or because some politicians decreed it. Instead, it became money because countless individuals throughout history and across many different civilizations subjectively came to the same conclusion: gold is money. It resulted from a market process of people looking for the best way to store and exchange value.

So, why did they go to gold? What makes gold attractive as money? Here’s why.

Gold has a set of unique characteristics that make it suitable as money. Gold is durable, divisible, consistent, convenient, scarce, and most importantly, the "hardest" of all physical commodities. In other words, gold is "hard to produce" relative to existing stockpiles and is the one physical commodity most resistant to inflation of its supply. That's what gives gold its monetary properties.

Anyone can opt-out of CBDCs by using physical gold and silver to store and exchange value. Physical gold is optimal for long-term savings and large transactions. The best way to do that is with widely recognized gold bullion coins, like the Canadian Gold Maple Leaf or the American Gold Eagle. However, gold coins are generally inconvenient to use for small transactions. Silver coins are more practical here.

 

Step #2: Obtain Financial Sovereignty With Bitcoin

CBDCs and Bitcoin share some characteristics. For example, they are both digital and facilitate fast payments from a mobile phone. But that is where the similarities end. The reality is that CBDCs and Bitcoin are entirely different in the most fundamental ways.

You need the government’s permission and blessing to use a CBDC, whereas Bitcoin is permissionless. Governments can (and will) create as many CBDC currency units as they want. With Bitcoin, there can never be more than 21 million, and there is nothing anyone can do to inflate the supply more than the predetermined amount in the protocol.

CBDCs are centralized. Bitcoin is decentralized. Governments can censor transactions and freeze and confiscate CBDC units. Bitcoin is censorship-resistant. No country's laws can affect the protocol.

There is no privacy with CBDCs. However, if you take specific steps with Bitcoin, it is possible to maintain reasonable privacy.

CBDCs are government money that is easy to produce and give politicians a terrifying amount of control over people’s lives. On the other hand, Bitcoin is non-state hard money that helps liberate individuals from government control.

Bitcoin enables anyone to be their own bank. Bitcoin allows you to send and receive value from anyone anywhere without relying on third parties.

If you avoid CBDCs, that will almost certainly mean avoiding the traditional financial system. Knowing how to use Bitcoin in the most sovereign way possible will be essential.

 

Step #3: Get Organized Locally

Get to know the people in your local community. If you avoid CBDCs, many of the conveniences of society will become unavailable. You will probably be unable to shop at Walmart and large stores of any kind, as they will all be roped into the CBDC system.

You will have to become self-sufficient and rely on your local community to obtain what you need. And that starts with knowing who can provide you with the things you want and need.

The Amish are incredibly successful in this regard. I am not saying you must go 100% Amish to avoid CBDCs. But we can learn how their societies work outside the traditional system and emulate the areas that make sense in our local communities.

 

Step #4: Exchange Value for Value

Humans invented money to solve the difficulties of barter. But with CBDCs, governments will have perverted money from a technology that facilities economic exchange into a tool of enslavement. With CBDCs, barter doesn’t look all that bad.

The key is understanding what value you can provide to others in your local community and how you can exchange that for something you want. That might mean performing some landscaping work for your dentist in exchange for getting a cavity filled or washing the car of your butcher in exchange for some ground beef.

 

Step #5: Become a Prepper

To minimize the inconvenience of barter, it's ideal to become as self-sufficient in as many areas as possible. That includes stockpiling supplies and gaining survival knowledge and skills. If you already have what you need—or can produce it yourself—that reduces the need to get it from others.

 

Conclusion

Unfortunately, CBDCs—and all the terrible things that go along with them—are probably coming soon. To summarize, here are five steps anyone can take to opt out of this terrible system.

Step #1: Use Physical Gold and Silver

Step #2: Obtain Financial Sovereignty With Bitcoin

Step #3: Get Organized Locally

Step #4: Exchange Value for Value

Step #5: Become a Prepper

 

Here’s the bottom line.

We're on the cusp of the most significant changes in money and finance in world history… Yet few people are aware of what is really happening with CBDCs.

 


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Tim Moseley

Gold silver recover most of sharp early losses

Gold, silver recover most of sharp, early losses

Gold and silver prices are modestly lower in midday U.S. trading Thursday but have made a solid rebound from early-morning losses following another hot U.S. inflation report. Strong losses in the U.S. dollar index and higher crude oil prices today are working in favor of the precious metals market bulls. However, rising U.S. Treasury yields are still keeping buyers in gold and silver timid. December gold was last down $4.30 at $1,673.30 and December silver was down $0.093 at $18.845.

Today’s highly anticipated U.S. consumer price index report for September showed a rise of 0.4% from August, which was just above the expected rise of 0.3%. Year-on-year, the CPI was up 8.2%. The report was expected to come in at up 8.1%, year-on-year, following a rise of 8.3% in August. On Wednesday the U.S. got a hot producer price index reading for September, at up 8.5%, year-on-year. U.S. Federal Reserve officials have recently reiterated their aggressively hawkish stance on monetary policy, which has kept the general marketplace uneasy, for fear of pending U.S. and/or global recession. Today’s CPI report suggests the Fed is correct regarding its belief that inflation is still not under control.

Global stock markets were mixed to weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are solidly higher at midday after dropping sharply after the CPI report.

Now is the time to find value in the junior mining sector – Radisson Mining director Michael Gentile

Before the CPI data, risk appetite in the general marketplace had up-ticked on reports the U.K. government is going to roll back its controversial tax and spending plans that had roiled the financial markets the past two weeks. The British pound rallied and U.K. bond yields fell on the news.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index sharply lower. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $89.25 a barrel. The U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is presently fetching around 3.9%.

Technically, the gold futures bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the October high of $1,738.70. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the September low of $1,622.20. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $1,688.90 and then at $1,700.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $1,648.30 and then at $1,635.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0

The silver bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $20.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $18.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $19.29 and then at Tuesday’s high of $19.725. Next support is seen at today’s low of $18.41 and then at $18.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

December N.Y. copper closed up 205 points at 344.50 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. The copper bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the September high of 369.25 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the July low of 315.55 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 347.70 cents and then at 350.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 335.40 cents and then at 330.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

By Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

Tim Moseley

Healthcare as We Know It Is About To Completely Change

Healthcare as We Know It, Is About To Completely Change

by Chris Lowe, The Daily Cut

 

Healthcare Technology Outlook 2020 - Technology uptake - YouTube

 

We’ve gotten so gloomy, it’s easy to miss the good things happening in the world…

Bear markets in stocks, bonds, and crypto… record inflation… spiking interest rates… a looming recession… a global energy crisis… and the threat of nuclear war as Vladimir Putin’s forces flounder in Ukraine.

The media is widely broadcasting these headlines. They’re serious. And they deserve our attention.

But they’re not the only things happening in the world.

And letting the doom and gloom suck you in can lead you to overlook the spectacular breakthroughs happening all the time.

That’s why, today, we’ll look at a new milestone in one of the tech megatrends we’ve been tracking – precision medicine.

This won’t just transform healthcare as we know it… It will also pave the way to spectacular returns for pioneering investors. It’s a new approach to disease prevention and treatment based on someone’s unique genetic makeup. And as you’ll see, it’s about to go mainstream.

 

Today, most physicians are working blind…

Sure, your doctor can prescribe you a battery of diagnostic tests.

And many of these – such as magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and ultrasound scans – are highly sophisticated.

But doctors still can’t see what’s going on inside your genome – your complete set of DNA.

And that’s often a fatal blind spot…

Our genome determines almost everything about who we are – from the shapes of our bodies… to our height… to our hair color.

It also determines what diseases we get.

We know of more than 6,000 diseases caused by mutations – or errors – in our genetic code.

And some types of cancer – including breast, ovarian, colorectal, and prostate cancers – are strongly influenced by our genes.

That’s what makes genome sequencing so revolutionary.

It allows doctors to see the diseases potentially written in our DNA. And with genome sequencing technology, doctors can move from treating those diseases… to preventing them before they happen.

All this is possible thanks to CRISPR gene-editing technology. It allows you to “cut” mutated genes from your genome and “paste” healthy ones in their place.

And doctors have already used this process to effectively treat certain genetic blood diseases, such as sickle cell anemia and beta-thalassemia.

Gene therapy is also the first promising treatment option for Leber’s hereditary optic neuropathy (LHON).

That’s a rare genetic disease that destroys the cells in the optic nerves in your eyes. And without an effective treatment, about 90% of those affected lose their vision by the age of 50.

There’s no cure right now… but a 2017 trial using gene therapy to treat LHON showed significant improvements in more than 60% of patients in a 12-month period.

They’ve even used gene editing to re-engineer the T-cells in our body to kill cancer cells.

Normally, cancers can evade our T-cell defenses. But doctors have re-engineered them to recognize when they’ve encountered a cancer cell… and kill it.

The problem is human genome sequencing has been too expensive and time-consuming to reach a mass market.

 

Your genome contains three billion “base pairs” of DNA…

DNA is made of two linked strands. These wind around each other to resemble a twisted ladder – also known as a double helix.

Each base pair forms one rung of that ladder.

So, we’re talking about a ladder with three billion rungs. And as you can imagine, sequencing those base pairs requires massive amounts of computing power… and sky-high costs.

But thankfully, that’s all about to change…

Over to our tech expert, Jeff Brown. He’s been tracking the advances in genetic sequencing. 

The cost to sequence a human genome was more than $100 million back in 2001. But those costs have fallen steadily year after year. Since 2007, this trend has accelerated at a pace even faster than Moore’s Law.

It’s the observation that the number of transistors on a microchip – and therefore computing power – double about every two years.

As a result, the cost to sequence a human genome hit $600 at the end of last year. That was a major milestone. That’s in the range for many to pay for sequencing their genome out of pocket.

 

Unlocking the secrets of our genome is about to get even cheaper…

That’s thanks to San Diego-based genetic sequencing giant Illumina (ILMN). It just launched a new line of sequencing machines called the NovaSeq X Series.

Now, to be clear… This technology is far more advanced than the at-home genetic kits companies such as 23andMe and Ancestry.com use. Those home kits don’t sequence your entire genome… but about 0.1% of it. Then they use that sample to determine the likelihood your genes came from a particular individual or group.

The NovaSeq X Series sequences all three billion base pairs of your DNA. And it picks up any mutations you may have that can lead to disease. And these new machines are a major upgrade from existing whole genome sequencing tech.

Back to Jeff…

Illumina’s NovaSeq X machines will be about 60% more efficient than today’s sequencers. That will cut the cost to sequence a human genome to just $200.

At that price, health insurance companies can cover genome sequencing for patients. It will make business sense. Precision medicine means patients spend less time in ICUs, need fewer tests, and spend less on care.

It’s about precision medicine for the masses. And it’s happening now. Illumina’s new machines will ship in the first quarter of 2023. This will send the precision medicine trend into hyperdrive… and change healthcare as we know it.

 

Jeff says we’ve entered a “golden age” for biotechnology…

Most people just don’t realize it yet…

Look at the iShares Biotechnology ETF (IBB). It tracks the performance of the world’s leading biotech stocks, including Illumina.

It peaked a month before the tech-heavy Nasdaq… and has tracked lower ever since.

 

Chart

That tells us investors aren’t paying attention to the breakthroughs happening in the biotech world. Instead, they’ve been offloading their biotech stocks en masse… along with tech stocks and anything else they deem “risky.”

That leaves prices at 2015 levels for the world’s best biotech stocks.

Chart

That was seven years ago… when genomic sequencing was still in its infancy.

But it’s about to go mainstream. And when investors catch up to the golden age of biotech this will bring about, the sector will soar again.

 

I know it’s hard to seize opportunities like this…

As I mentioned up top, there are some serious problems in the world. And we’ve all got psychological scars from this year’s bear market.

But unless you think biotech stocks will continue to sell at 2015 prices forever… despite the breakthroughs we’re seeing with genetic sequencing… now is a great time to pick up some exposure to this tech megatrend.

Bear markets temporarily make the stocks you own less valuable. And that’s painful. But they’re also rare opportunities to buy quality assets at discounted prices. And thanks to the breakthroughs happening there… and the real difference this will make in people’s lives… it’s hard to imagine a more exciting sector than biotech to be invested in right now.

This year alone, medical authorities have approved four new genetic therapies. And according to scientists at MIT’s Center for Biomedical Innovation, there are thousands of trials underway that may see 40 to 50 new genetic therapies approved for clinical use by 2030.

The golden age of biotech is just getting started…

 


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Tim Moseley

The Artist that came out of the Winter