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How the Militant Left Uses Fear

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How the Militant Left Uses Fear

Christopher J. Farrell is the Director of Investigations and Research at Judicial Watch and a former U.S. Army Counterintelligence Officer.

 

How the Militant Left Uses Fear

 

A technique the Left uses to increase control through public anxiety is to “set multiple fires along the ridgeline.” The public notices that the flames are spreading. Which fire does one run to first? What must be sacrificed and allowed to burn?

Christopher J. Farrell — 30.06.22

 

“Paranoia strikes deep. Into your life it will creep. It starts when you’re always afraid.
Step out of line, the men come and take you away.” 

—“For What It’s Worth,” Steven Stills, Buffalo Springfield, 1966

 

The objective of the militant political Left

Whether in Hungary, at the European Union (EU), or in the United States—is to keep the public in a state of perpetual, acute, neurotic anxiety. They employ this form of psychological conditioning as a means of control. In the last century, socialists—National Socialists but particularly Communists—specialized in the technique to impose totalitarian control over whole societies.

Their goal is to manipulate the population into a series of fear-based decisions that disconnect people from their traditions, history, and values—and from each other. Separation from reality, inducing neurotic behavior, and developing disordered environments—while simultaneously extinguishing individual independent thought and behavior—work together to create ‘learned helplessness,’ leaving a vacuum for government to step in and ‘save the day.’

This type of strategic psychological combat, aimed at directing and swaying public attitudes, is not new, nor is it merely the product of the last 100 years. Sun Tzu also stressed the importance of destroying the enemy’s will to fight in his 5th-century BC writings on military affairs. Lenin’s 1920 “Conditions for Admission to the Communist International” discusses this technique as “demoralization”—the far-stronger German term is Zersetzung—meaning break-up, decomposition, and disintegration. In the late 1920s, the German communist party had specific operational detachments, referred to as Apparat, specifically for Zersetzung and Terror, working together in a powerful combination. The German communist cells took orders from Moscow, agitated for class warfare, deconstructed society for political advantage, and subverted the authority of the Weimar constitution. You are the modern-day target for this exact same treatment.

The mind has always been one of the most important battlegrounds—this is especially seen in Lenin’s dogmatic interpretation of Marxism. Lenin stresses throughout his writing that there can only be one right belief and that any dissent is a threat meriting terrorism at home and aggression abroad. This ideology has given and continues to give, the militant Left license to deploy its full arsenal of techniques to destroy its opposition. The Left wants you to give up and comply.

As disconnection and dependence contribute to the breakdown of family, community, and national identity, the general population is to be driven into the arms of an all-knowing, all-providing, homogenizing global society. Global citizens will find rest, comfort, and direction through compliance and in their ruling parties.

Balázs Orbán, political director to Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, details a compelling case for how the EU seeks to impose and enforce cultural structures, as well as moral and legal norms, across all of Europe without dialogue or debate. He discusses the phenomenon of “universalist thinking” demanding fetish compliance, in the context of the EU operating as a 21st-century empire, in the Winter 2021 edition of The European Conservative. The elite rule and all subjects must comply. Dissent is often punished. Disagreement is barely tolerated and frequently sanctioned economically. The essence of sovereignty—representative government—is dismissed as a quaint relic inconsistent with the rigid orthodoxies of Leftist ideology.

As Balázs Orbán points out, “only 8% of the EU’s senior officials come from Central and Eastern European states, though those states make up 40% and 20% of the EU’s population, respectively.” When the EU leadership criticizes and sanctions Hungary for wanting to enforce (Schengen) border security or for affirming the God-given right of Hungarian parents to decide what their children are taught in school, then something is very wrong. Political intimidation and economic coercion are the tools of fear leveraged against a nation in an international campaign to compel universal compliance.

The Left seeks to destroy and reshape national consciousness so that life is reduced to an obsessive list of things that are either ‘forbidden’ or ‘mandatory’—and are enforced by either subsidized or punitive state control.

Furthermore, eager compliance with state diktats is encouraged and rewarded with privilege and status. Virtue posturing and social demonstrations promoting state-sponsored group-think are ironically promoted as being bestowed with a keen awareness meriting the now-tired trope ‘Woke.’ In the United States, Hollywood stars posture while American cities burn and 2 million illegal aliens cross the southern border. Citizens are reduced from being the sovereign authority to a state resource that funds their own destruction. 

Militant Leftist attacks—both ideological and physical—are launched against history and facts. Traditions and foundations are besieged and undermined. Most recently in the United States, that effort has manifested in the so-called ‘1619 Project,’ which seeks to rewrite America’s founding and everything that comes from it, as based on slavery and racism. It is not merely a social commentary—it is an attempt to destroy our Constitution.

Beyond the ideological and physical attacks, society is also subjected to political and social group psychoanalysis that, in a perverted way, allows for the mass production of complexes and traumas. The counterfactual and increasingly hysterical claims of America’s ‘systemic racism’ is an example of the tactic. Again, the American public is attacked with the goal of inculcating feelings of error, guilt, shame, and fear, as well as desires (by some) for repentance and revenge.

Another technique the Left uses to increase control through public anxiety is to manufacture crises or “set multiple fires along the ridgeline.” The fires represent crises and controversies that are presented to the public via compliant media as urgent and threatening. The public (down in the ‘valley’) notices that up above them, on the hillside and ridgeline, there are multiple ‘fires’ burning at different spots, and the flames are spreading—sweeping across the terrain. Which fire does one run to first? How many can be put out?  What must be sacrificed and allowed to burn? How can the public sustain these challenges and losses? Who will save us all from burning? The ‘firemen’ of Bradbury’s Fahrenheit 451 set fires to destroy outlawed books. This ridgeline scenario is merely a variation on a theme. Control, compulsion, threats, and crises all dominate the public’s psyche.

Let us review a partial list of the cascading crises of the Biden administration: COVID pandemic, vaccine mandates and ultimatums, business shutdowns, 40-year high inflation, labor shortages, supply chain crisis, record illegal immigration and drug smuggling, the collapse of border security, record-high fuel prices, return to foreign energy dependence, Ukraine, Afghanistan, FBI and Justice Department targeting parents, record homicide rates across 16 major US cities, Fentanyl as the number one killer of Americans aged 18-45, renegotiating the Iran nuclear “deal” with Russia at the table, radical promotion of pro-transgender agenda at the expense of women’s rights and protections for women in sports, hysterical ‘insurrection’ claims of the January 6th Commission, baby formula shortages, the complete collapse of the Democrat’s sweeping climate and social spending agenda, Monkeypox, Biden’s multiple verbal gaffes, and apparent diminished mental acuity. This list is not exhaustive. It goes on and on.

More crises are sure to come. Guaranteed. Some domestic, some international, some imposed, some initiated, some clandestine, some overt. The point is that they exist, and they are hyped and manipulated and presented to the public as imminent threats. Not solutions, not victories, not ways to overcome adversity. Threats. Each one is a brick of fear in the fortress of terror in which we are to be imprisoned.

One of the most disturbing examples of America’s new state-sponsored punitive tactics is the politicization of the justice system. America now has a two-tiered system of justice. The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) has, without exaggeration, become the ‘secret police’ of the Democratic Party. Brief examples will illustrate the FBI’s disparity of treatment between conservatives and leftists. Compare and contrast the FBI’s treatment of conservatives: Presidential Advisor Dr. Peter Navarro, Project Veritas journalist James O’Keefe, and political consultant Roger Stone against the treatment of Democrat operatives: former Attorney General Eric Holder, who was held in contempt of Congress by a bipartisan majority; and the serial lies of former FBI Director James Comey, FBI Acting Director Andrew McCabe, and senior intelligence officials James Clapper and John Brennan. The public’s loss of confidence in the justice system gravely undermines democracy. Polling suggests a steady decline in public trust of both career and politically appointed government officials.

There are several other tactics and techniques the Left uses against the people to push them to abandon hope and faith. Once the people are broken through engineered crises,  then the Left pounces to implement the radical, ‘fundamental transformation’ that makes things ‘better.’ Richard Cloward and Frances Fox Piven of the Columbia University School of Social Work outlined this strategy in an article in The Nation magazine in 1966, entitled: “The Weight of the Poor: A Strategy to End Poverty.” The Cloward-Piven strategy looks to deliberately “break the system” in order to create an opportunity for even greater centralized control. Obama presidential advisor Rahm Emanuel summed it up best when he said, “You never want a serious crisis to go to waste. And what I mean by that, it’s an opportunity to do things that you think you could not do before.” How many times have we seen this? Yet there seems to be recurring, generational amnesia concerning the brutality of this process and the deadly consequences.

The Left (the European Union, President Biden, and their ilk) attacks the Hungarian success story of the Orbán government with unfounded claims of authoritarianism. They project the worst aspects of their own ideology and behavior onto their opponents without any shame or sense of irony.

At CPAC Hungary, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán shared his twelve pragmatic and proven principles for overcoming the current dominance of the so-called progressives in our societies. My own solution to defeat the attacks of the Left is quite simple, but it requires great courage. The solution has only two steps:  First—Stop forgetting.  Second—Fight back. Never let go of your heritage, history, and the facts—refuse to deny who you truly are and what you come from. Do not betray all that got you to where you are today, even if that experience was imperfect or flawed—learn and know the lessons.

The Left is not ashamed of the blood they have on their hands—of the 100 million dead that they are responsible for—they now claim just to be ‘perfecting’ their past mistakes. 

On the other hand, you represent individual liberty, freedom of conscience, and the right to be secure in your home and property, and that is the homeland security you must fight to preserve at all costs.

 

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Along with the major long-term trend of society towards decentralization and smaller-scale organizations, there are new opportunities developing to help 'Preparers' in the cryptocurrency sector. Businesses are beginning to issue their own Crypto Coins that can be traded on Cryptocoin Exchanges.

Markethive.com for example will be releasing its HiveCoin (HIV) in the coming weeks. It has tremendous upside potential that is outlined in a Video by Founder Tom Prendergast, "Entrepreneur Advantage…".

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Markethive

Tim Moseley

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Gold silver down as chart-based bears pressing their case

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Gold, silver down as chart-based bears pressing their case

Gold and silver prices are lower at midday today, in a choppy, two-sided trading session. The significantly bearish near-term technical postures for both metals are inviting the speculators to play the short sides of the futures markets at present. Gold hit a six-week low and silver a two-year low today. August gold futures were last down $6.80 at $1,810.60. Gold prices are close to key chart support levels ($1,800.00 and $1,792.00) that if breached would likely set off heavy sell stop orders in the futures market. July Comex silver futures were last down $0.363 at $20.29 an ounce.

The U.S. data point of the day was the personal income and outlays report for May, including the personal consumption expenditures price index component of the report that is said to be the Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation gauge. The May CPE price index came in up 6.3%, year-on-year, with the core rate up 4.7% in the same period. In the April report, the PCE price index was also reported up 6.3%, year-on-year. Metals market bulls were briefly assuaged by the stable readings in the report, as many reckoned the numbers could have been worse, possibly prompting the Federal Reserve to be even more aggressive in its monetary policy tightening. Raw commodity traders, including metals traders, have taken a tack recently of being more worried about less consumer and commercial demand for commodities amid an economic recession—as opposed to the notions of higher inflation being supportive for raw commodity prices.

Bitcoin closes June down 40% and below $20k as markets see recession fears, contagion risks

Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are lower at midday, on this last trading day of the month and of the first half of 2022. Reports said the S&P 500 is set to close out its worst half-year since the 1970s. Trader and investor risk appetite has receded late this week, following downbeat consumer confidence and GDP readings out of the U.S. this week. Fed Chairman Powell and ECB President Lagarde on Wednesday repeated warnings that their central banks will keep raising interest rates even if their economies slowed down. Recently, much of the marketplace has deemed economic recessions potential as superseding inflation worries, when placing their trades.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices lower and trading around $107.75 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is weaker in midday U.S. trading. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching around 2.9%. Yields have declined this week amid the increased concerns regarding a U.S. economic recession.

Technically, August gold prices hit a six-week low early on today. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage and have gained power this week. Prices are starting to trend down on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the June high of $1,882.50. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the May low of $1,792.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $1,826.80 and then at Wednesday’s high of $1,834.90. First support is seen at $1,800.00 and then at $1,792.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

July silver futures prices hit a two-year low today. The silver bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and gained more power today. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $22.00 an ounce. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $20.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $20.705 and then at $21.00. Next support is seen at today’s low of $20.16 and then at $20.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.

July N.Y. copper closed down 550 points at 372.40 cents today. Prices closed near mid-range today. The copper bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. A four-week-old price downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 400.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 350.00 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 384.30 cents and then at 390.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 368.80 cents and then at the June low of 364.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5.

By Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

 

 

Tim Moseley

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Gold silver bulls squelched by firmer US dollar

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Gold, silver bulls squelched by firmer U.S. dollar

Gold and silver prices are steady to slightly lower in midday U.S. trading Wednesday. A rally in the U.S. dollar index at mid-week kept the precious metals bulls at bay. August gold futures were last down $1.20 at $1,819.90. July Comex silver futures were last down $0.136 at $20.67 an ounce.

The marketplace was closely watching a central bankers’ forum in Portugal that began earlier today. Speakers included Fed Chairman Powell, ECB President Lagarde and Bank of England governor Bailey. However, the markets did not show any significant reactions to the central bank officials’ comments.

Today’s downbeat U.S. final first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) estimate that showed contraction of 1.6% gave the gold and silver markets a brief boost but those gains could not be held.

Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are mixed at midday. Trader and investor risk appetite has pulled back at mid-week, following downbeat consumer confidence readings out of the U.S. on Tuesday and out of the Euro zone today.

Gold prices trading near session highs as U.S. Q1 GDP drops 1.6%

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices near steady and trading around $111.75 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is higher at midday. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 3.108%.

Technically,August gold futures prices scored a mildly bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar chart today. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, the recent sideways and choppy trading action at lower price levels is suggesting a market bottom is in place. Bulls' next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the June high of $1,882.50. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,800.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $1,834.90 and then at this week’s high of $1,842.80. First support is seen at today’s low of $1,810.70 and then at the June low of $1,806.10. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

July silver futures were down $0.136 at $20.67 in midday trading today and nearer the session low. The silver bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the June high of $22.565 an ounce. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the May low of $20.42. First resistance is seen at $21.00 and then at Tuesday’s high of $21.355. Next support is seen at the June low of $20.545 and then at $20.42. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.

July N.Y. copper closed up 35 points at 377.75 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. The copper bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. A four-week-old price downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 400.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 350.00 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 384.30 cents and then at 390.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 370.75 cents and then at the June low of 364.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5.

By Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

 

 

Tim Moseley

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Effective Ways to Overcome Market Crash in the Global Economy

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Effective Ways to Overcome Market Crash in the Global Economy

The global economy is in flux, and many investors are feeling the impact. This unstable environment has led to widespread panic, which has caused some people to make irrational decisions with their investments. To overcome this difficult time, individuals need to understand how these crashes happen and what steps they can take to minimize the damage done. There are different ways that investment crashes occur, and each one presents its own set of risks and challenges.

The investment crash is a devastating event that has impacted many people differently. However, by being prepared for the crisis and employing various methods to overcome it, most people were able to restore their wealth and rebuild their lives.

A few effective ways can help investors overcome these crashes and stay safe throughout this turbulent time. Let's get started!

What is a market crash?

The term "market crash" refers to a sudden and sharp decline in the value of one or more markets or assets that can trace directly to an economic factor. Such as a shortage of currency or a decline in demand due to bad weather or political events, or because there has been a market bubble inflated by excessive exuberance or greed among investors (people who trade securities).

The market crash can also be seen as anything from a mild drop in prices to a total market collapse in less than a day. It can happen when there is too much demand for one particular product, and the sellers cannot supply enough to meet that demand. Hence, prices start to drop rapidly to try and clear out excess stock before it falls into the hands of someone else who wants it more than you do or who will pay less than your price because they are buying on credit, etc.

A market crash may be temporary, with prices recovering in days or weeks. However, a market crash can signal the start of a more prolonged downturn that can last for months or even years. A perfect example is the U.S housing market crash of 2007, which started with a relatively mild decline in home prices leading up to 2005.

What causes a market crash?

An eventual crash is inevitable in a market so full of madness.

The best place to start is with "Why did it happen" (what caused the crash)? And then from there, you can get an idea of what caused the crash, how it was created, and why people didn't do anything about it until it was too late to prevent it from becoming so big that nobody could recover from it before it became terrible. It would cause substantial social upheaval, leading to chaos, war, economic collapse, etc. This seems to be the same problem we are facing now: a large-scale problem that is not being dealt with but will become much worse over time without being dealt with, creating massive civil unrest which may lead to widespread chaos and mass death from starvation, etc. So we need to try to understand this problem and hopefully find some way to solve it. The first step is to understand the reason for the crash.

A common answer is that there are just too many people trying to buy assets simultaneously or too much money being thrown into the market by too many investors. This leads to over-speculation and a bubble that bursts when it inevitably collapses under its weight in a process known as a "crash."

For instance, an economic bubble occurs when too many people try to buy assets such as stocks, crypto, bonds, etc., resulting in overinflated prices and consequently more losses than gains for those who try to sell them when the SMART MONIES (top firms and individual wealthy investors) have already left the market. This leads to widespread bankruptcies, as individuals or businesses with debts cannot afford to pay off their mortgages and can no longer keep up with their interest payments on their loans, so they default and lose all their assets.

When investors start to sell their assets as they believe market prices are unrealistic and will fall in the future, this can cause wide-scale panic selling of assets. This creates a downward spiral of further market price falls as investors lose confidence in holding a particular asset and selling it as quickly as possible.

Every investor lives with the risk of a major economic meltdown, no matter how small. It has occurred before, and it can happen again. If it does, years of hard-earned savings and retirement funds could be wiped out in hours, days, weeks, or months.

Fortunately, you can take measures to safeguard most of your assets from a market crash or even a global economic depression. Preparation and diversification are the pivotal elements of a sound defensive strategy. Altogether, they can help you withstand a financial storm.

Diversify

Diversifying your portfolio is possibly the single most significant measure that you can take to safeguard your investments from a severe bear market. In other words, if you're 100% invested in one particular stock or sector, then when the market goes into freefall, you will be devastated financially and emotionally, as well, as it might take years to recover from such an experience! 

Diversification means exposure to different assets, including stocks, bonds, crypto, etc, and being exposed to various sectors of the economy (e.g., banking/finance, consumer discretionary, technology, etc.). However, if you diversify too much, you risk spreading yourself thin and thus exposing yourself to potential risks that might impact your investment returns.

Be Quick to Run to Safety

Whenever natural market turbulence or new unfavorable policies are enacted by the government in most notable nations of the world, most people quickly liquidate their assets into cash equivalents. You may also want to do the same if you can do it before the crash.

Although this depends on the economic sector you invested in. You can always get back in when prices are much lower. Then, when the trend or economy eventually reverses, you can profit much more from the appreciation.

When you wait too long to exit the market during a turbulent time, you may be forced into a position that is not the best for you financially to maintain capitalization and stay profitable, if at all possible.

Make Guaranteed Investments 

You may likely don't want all of your savings in guaranteed investments. They don't pay off well enough. But it's wise to keep at least a small portion in something that isn't going to fall with the markets. The best part about this is that you can be confident that you have some money set aside to take care of yourself, so if things go south, you won't be too worried because you have a safety net in place.

Bank certificate of deposit (CD) and Treasury securities are a good bet for the long term, especially if they earn higher yields than what you'd get on your money in cash or other investments that pay little interest (like government bills). That's why these are often called "safety" issues. If rates go up, your principal is protected; but as long as rates stay low, the return is generally higher than that offered by cash or Treasuries (which also come with risks). The downside is that it can take years to make back what you paid.

Hedge Your Bets

When you see a significant downturn ahead, don't hesitate to set yourself up to profit directly from it. There are several ways you can do this, and one of the best is by hedging your bets with options trading strategies designed to take advantage of declines in stock prices and other financial markets.

One popular strategy is buying covered calls, which pay out if the underlying security price falls enough, so the call expires worthless. This means that you have earned 100% on your money (unless the option contract was written so the writer could exercise his right to repurchase the shares at the strike price). This strategy works great when a particular company has been experiencing declining sales over time but is currently selling at a premium because of investor optimism.

Offset Your Debts

Do you have considerable debts, you may be better off liquidating some or all of your holdings and settling off the debts if you see bad weather approaching in the markets. You will probably lose money doing this, but it's possible that the loss could be less than what you would have suffered if you had kept the assets in place and the market went down when you needed to sell them most heavily because they were now worth much more than they were then.

Suppose you are going to pay down debt. You might consider making a lump sum payment over time rather than paying it off install mentally. This could cause problems with your retirement savings or investments if you cannot afford them now because you are losing money on the market and need the cash to live on during the worst of times before things improve.

In Summary

Finally, remember that while a crash is never easy, it is essential to emerge stronger. Don't give up on your goals, and don't let the market defeat you. Use these tips to make the most of a difficult situation and succeed where others have failed.

There is no one answer to overcoming an investment crash. However, staying informed, having a plan, and being resilient are all essential steps in avoiding a crash and succeeding when it does happen. In the last five years or so we have witnessed some of the most extreme market corrections on record.

I believe we are likely headed for another one soon as markets continue to be driven by exuberance fueled by easy money from central banks around the world. Hence the rising government deficits that are rapidly growing our national debt, and further eroding investors’ confidence in their ability to withstand a significant loss of wealth over some time if they should choose to do so all without negative implications for the economy.

 

Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

 

 

 

Tim Moseley

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An important bigger-picture perspective on gold

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An important bigger-picture perspective on gold

Editor's Note: With so much market volatility, stay on top of daily news! Get caught up in minutes with our speedy summary of today's must-read news and expert opinions. Sign up here!

(Kitco News) – An examination of the monthly continuation chart for nearby Comex gold futures is a classic example of why it’s important to look at the longer-term charts, in order to gain a critical over-the-horizon perspective on where a market has been and where it may be heading.

The monthly gold chart shows prices are still not far below the record high of $2,078.80, basis nearby futures, scored in March of this year. Prices have pulled back from the record high, but not a lot, by longer-term historical standards. Technical analysts call this price action a “downside correction” in an overall longer-term price uptrend that remains in place. Gold market bulls still have the firm longer-term technical advantage.

By Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

 

 

Tim Moseley

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Market participant wait for two key reports this week GDP and PCE

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Market participant wait for two key reports this week; GDP and PCE

Analysts and investors are waiting for two critical government reports due out on Wednesday and Thursday of this week. On Wednesday the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will release its latest numbers on real GDP which will be followed on Thursday by the PCE for May 2022.

Concerns over a potential recession which will either be confirmed or negated by Wednesday’s GDP report. These concerns took both the dollar and gold lower today. As of 5:35 PM EDT gold futures basis, the most active August 2022 contract is trading $6.30 (-0.34%) lower and currently fixed at $1824 per ounce. The dollar lost 0.244 points today taking the dollar index to 103.715.

According to a report by Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at J.P. Morgan asset management, “1Q22 Real GDP showed the economy contracted at a 1.5% annual rate in 1Q22, a deceleration from the boomy 4Q21. Weakness was primarily led by volatile trade and inventory data. Trade subtracted 3.2% from overall GDP growth as exports fell sharply and imports soared.”

The report also said that first-quarter 2022 earnings have held up better than expected. However, inflation continues to far exceed the FOMC’s 2% target with the May CPI report indicating hotter than expected inflation despite hopes by the Federal Reserve that it would moderate.

He concluded the following; first, the Federal Reserve could push the economy into a recession if it over-tightens in response to supply-driven inflation. Secondly, heightened geopolitical tensions with Russia could result in continued energy shortages, low consumer confidence, and dampening growth. Lastly, he concluded that markets may remain depressed and volatile until investors receive clarity on inflation and the Fed.

The other key report which will be released on Thursday is the PCE price index for May. The PCE for April revealed a slight uptick in core inflation increasing by 0.2% month over month. However. This was a decrease from the increase in March which came in at a 0.9% increase in MoM.

Although we will have to wait until Thursday for the official PCE price index from the BEA, last week they reported that “The U.S. current-account deficit widened by $66.6 billion, or 29.6 percent, to $291.4 billion in the first quarter of 2022, according to statistics released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. The revised fourth-quarter deficit was $224.8 billion. The first-quarter deficit was 4.8 percent of current-dollar gross domestic product, up from 3.7 percent in the fourth quarter.”

August gold opened at $1839.60 today and traded to a high of $1842.80. Today’s high was $1.10 below the 200-day moving average which is currently fixed at $1843.90. This puts the first level of resistance in gold at the 200-day moving average. Above that, there is resistance at $1850.40, the highest value gold achieved in trading last week. Our technical studies indicate that major resistance is currently at $1882 which corresponds to the highest value of gold achieved this month on June 13.

Strong support for gold does not occur until $1805 with major support at $1786.20. Both levels of support are based upon recent price lows.
 

By Gary Wagner

Contributing to kitco.com

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

 

 

Tim Moseley

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Czech Presidency For The Council of the European Union

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What’s Happening to Bitcoin?

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What's Happening to Bitcoin?

Whats happening to bitcoin  

If you're wondering, "What's happening to bitcoin?" You're not alone. Bitcoin is a very hot topic right now, and everyone wants to know why. The current price decline is a result of global economic trends and the emergence of new cryptocurrencies, such as TerraUSD and El Salvador's legal tender. But there are several other factors contributing to the downfall of Bitcoin. Read on to learn more about these factors and what they mean for the price of bitcoin.

Price of bitcoin

Traders, investors, and financial professionals alike are concerned about the volatility of the Bitcoin price. Its limited supply and volatility have influenced its price dramatically, causing it to spike and drop dramatically in the same day. Inflation, a situation when the money supply increases rapidly, causing prices to rise and reducing the value of a currency, also has an effect on Bitcoin. But because of its limited supply, Bitcoin is safe from hyperinflation. Hyperinflation is a financial crisis that has destroyed the value of many fiat currencies.

In April 2011, Bitcoin broke the $1 mark and rose by nearly three-fold in just three months. In June 2011, bitcoin reached an all-time high of $32, but soon crashed and finished the year at a low of about $2. Although it has recovered in 2019, it hasn't yet reached its peak from 2017, and hasn't reached it yet, the price of Bitcoin is likely to rise dramatically in 2020 and 2021. Coindesk reports Bitcoin prices in US dollars, but this information is not indexed to inflation.

Impact of global economic trends

Global economic trends are a major influencer of the price of bitcoin, and many investors are speculating on the future of the cryptocurrency. Global GEPU is increasing, and Europe is grappling with immigration issues from war-torn countries. This causes uncertainty about the future of the European economy, and has a negative effect on trade. During periods of rising global GEPU, Bitcoin prices tend to be stable.

On the other hand, there are many countries that have mismanaged their domestic currencies. The authoritarian regime in Venezuela, for example, has a history of sky-high inflation that has resulted in an edgy economy and a plummeting standard of living for its citizens. The current inflationary environment is a testing ground for bitcoin, and a higher dollar value would strengthen the currency's appeal.

Impact of TerraUSD

The $60 billion TerraUSD project has destroyed the crypto market. Many investors thought it would revolutionize payment systems by creating a stablecoin pegged to the U.S. dollar. As it turns out, the project was a fraud, as investors panicked and wiped out their funds in days. The resulting bank run wiped out many investors, pulling down the entire crypto market. The Wall Street Journal reported on the situation of some investors.

But in the following weeks, the price of Luna soared, reaching $116 in April. Just three weeks earlier, it was trading for under a dollar, making many investors billionaires. The crypto currency's popularity spawned a retail trading community, including Bitcoin millionaire Mike Novogratz. Mr. Kwon, who founded TerraUSD, announced his support by getting a Luna-themed tattoo. Moreover, the start-up behind the new cryptocurrency Luna launched a cryptocurrency exchange and a lending service called TerraUSD 2.0.

Impact of El Salvador's legal tender

While the world's central banks are often hesitant to support Bitcoin, the government has made it a legal tender in El Salvador. The decision likely stems from the country's adoption of the US dollar in 2001, and some citizens perceived the new currency as a financial hardship. However, the country's new legal tender may prove to be a boon for Bitcoin. Ultimately, El Salvador's decision will likely spur further adoption of the currency in the country.

Some analysts fear that El Salvador's adoption of Bitcoin could encourage money laundering. While many experts disagree, the adoption of Bitcoin as legal tender in El Salvador could reduce the likelihood of sanctions imposed by the U.S. Treasury. In addition, some analysts believe that Bitcoin adoption could help alleviate the financial burdens faced by a country with a huge unbanked population. Ultimately, it is up to the government to determine how to deal with the situation and make the best possible decision for its citizens.

Impact of regulation

Although the UK and EU are at odds on the regulatory issues surrounding cryptocurrency, there are signs of a shift in Australia's attitude toward the currency. Both countries have embraced cryptocurrency exchanges and have taken a more friendly stance than their regional counterparts. The Australian Taxation Office, or ATO, treats cryptocurrencies like goods and collects tax on them using the Goods and Services Tax, or GST. Furthermore, the Monetary Authority of Singapore recently clarified that digital assets such as bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are securities.

In a recent speech, the CEO of Microstrategy, Michael Saylor, explained that regulatory clarity will help bitcoin continue to grow as the number of participants increases. Increasing government regulation will also facilitate institutional participation and accelerate growth in the cryptocurrency space. This, in turn, will allow more traditional banks and public companies to get involved, thereby further expanding the market. So, what does this mean for the future of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies?

Tim Moseley

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Mercury Wallet’s Roadmap To Bitcoin Scalability And Privacy

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Mercury Wallet’s Roadmap To Bitcoin Scalability And Privacy

by Shawn Amick 

 

Mercury Wallet, a Layer 2 scaling solution for Bitcoin, plans to integrate with the Lightning Network and blind its server.

Mercury Wallet, a Layer 2 application built for Bitcoin, is currently developing infrastructure to integrate with the Lightning Network.

Applications like Mercury are a way of scaling the use of Bitcoin by temporarily performing transactions off chain before returning to the main chain, making it easier and more cost-effective to make payments to other users. But what is Mercury Wallet, how does it differ from the Lightning Network and what could its integration ultimately accomplish for Bitcoin growth?

Statechains And Statecoins

In order to understand the Mercury Wallet, we must first understand the technology Mercury uses to build its application: statechains.

A statechain works in a very similar way to a blockchain or a sidechain. In short, a statechain provides cryptographic proof of ownership for any given statecoin. A statecoin can be thought of as representing digital currency without actually being the digital currency, which, in this case, would be bitcoin.

Similarly, the easiest comparison to understand a statecoin is to think of it in the way that paper money is tied to a gold standard. The paper currency is not the actual gold, it just represents some of gold’s value. Similarly, a statecoin is not bitcoin, it is just meant to represent some of bitcoin’s value. This allows users to transact the value of bitcoin without interacting with the Bitcoin blockchain.

Now that we have a basic premise for statechains and statecoins, let’s return to Mercury.

What Is Mercury Wallet?

Mercury Wallet is itself an implementation of a statechain. The wallet is how unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs), or funds are organized into a statechain once they are deposited.

When a user opts in to use Mercury Wallet, they deposit UTXOs into the wallet through the graphical user interface (GUI) in a fairly straightforward process. Depositing UTXOs into Mercury Wallet is sort of like playing a game of poker with your friends. Each person brings a fixed amount of cash denominated in chips. The chips cannot be divided into smaller denominations of cash and have a fixed value.

Likewise, UTXOs deposited into Mercury Wallet cannot be divided into smaller denominations. Therefore, if the given UTXO represents 1 BTC, it must be spent in full and cannot be divided into smaller payments. This is one of the downsides to Mercury Wallet.

Accordingly, once funds are deposited, a chain of transactions secured by cryptography signifying ownership begins. If a user would choose to spend their UTXOs, it would create a path of ownership leading from the spender to the receiver each time a transaction was made. However, in order to transact with Mercury Wallet a user must be transacting with another Mercury Wallet.

Moreover, each deposited UTXO in essence creates its own statechain that traces the transference of ownership with each transaction on the Mercury Wallet platform. This is why Mercury Wallet users must interact with one another, to continue the chain of custody.

In addition, should users want the path of ownership for their deposits broadcasted to the Bitcoin blockchain to actually transfer the funds, Mercury’s interface is connected to a Bitcoin node making the process quick and easy.

So, what does Lightning offer Mercury Wallet that it does not already have?

Privacy, Security And Optionality

If the Lightning Network is a Layer 2 scaling solution, and Mercury Wallet is a Layer 2 scaling solution, doesn’t that make them competitors? This is an incorrect lens through which to view the two projects. In fact, it would be more accurate to view them as adjacent, rather than in opposition to one another.

Accordingly, the Lightning Network is an implementation of a communication protocol through the use of channels, and Mercury Wallet is an implementation of statechains that leverage a product with a company behind it.

However, Mercury integrating its product to the Lightning Network allows Mercury users to access its communication protocol. This integration enables Lightning-to-Mercury transfers or vice versa, which strengthens Mercury’s use cases.

For instance, currently, the business model of Mercury is to collect a fee for facilitating Layer 2 transactions by charging an address once funds are broadcasted back to the Bitcoin blockchain, which users are required to provide when they initially deposit funds. This is a privacy concern, since the address has to be collected upfront and stored, even though it does not have to be the same address the deposited UTXOs are coming from.

Nevertheless, with a Lightning integration, Mercury could charge the fee upfront and only need to collect a Lightning invoice, storing none of the user data. This would not only be a boon for privacy, but also security.

In its current state, Mercury Wallet is subject to denial-of-service (DoS) attacks, which is where a malicious user spams fake transactions to flood the network, thereby making it difficult or impossible to use the platform. Being able to charge Lightning invoices up front would drastically reduce the likelihood of this attack vector by placing a price on spam and allowing more optionality.

Thus, Lightning invoicing would also allow Mercury to change its pricing model entirely. Similar to how Opendime allows users to transact with UTXOs placed onto a flashdrive-like device for ease of use; Mercury users would be able to purchase a virtual form of Opendime-like real estate en masse, which would allow bulk discounts for multiple deposits.

Still, Mercury has one other upgrade on the horizon.

A Blind Server

Currently, Mercury has plans to blind its server during the fourth quarter of this year, according to CEO Nicholas Gregory, per an email correspondence Bitcoin Magazine had with the Mercury team. What does this mean?

“The blinded version of Mercury Wallet will apply cryptography in an approach that makes it impossible to identify coins that have been transferred or swapped,” explained Tom Trevethan, CTO of Mercury Wallet.

The company announced its plans to go blind in June with an explanation of what it means to be blinded in the world of cryptography here. In short, the act of blinding Mercury’s server guarantees that it cannot know any identifiable information about a coin which prevents censorship of coins. 

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Tim Moseley

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News Bites Gold’s price floor has gone up What this means for Newmont the world’s largest gold miner Tom Palmer

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Gold’s price floor has gone up – What this means for Newmont, the world’s largest gold miner – Tom Palmer

Tom Palmer, CEO of Newmont, said that gold’s price floor has increased considerably over the past decade, making mining more lucrative as a result.

“We think, fundamentally, that the floor for gold has changed,” he said. “You typically have seen it sitting, probably for the last decade, at around $1,200 as a floor. I think the events of the last couple of years have changed that: the level of fiscal and monetary stimulus, the factors that are happening around Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Gold is more comfortably, I think, sitting with a floor of maybe $1,500 or $1,600.”

Palmer spoke with David Lin, Anchor and Producer at Kitco News, at the PDAC 2022 Convention in Toronto.

Newmont’s Costs and Revenues

Newmont’s cost guidance this year is $1,050 per ounce of gold. This assumes an $1,800 price per ounce of gold.

“Built into that [cost guidance] number are the higher taxes and royalties that you pay at that higher price,” Palmer explained. “If gold’s price were to come down, then you’re paying less taxes and royalties, so they’re coupled to each other.”

U.S. inflation was 8.6 percent in May, and Newmont is taking this into consideration, said Palmer.

“We’re starting to see some additional cost pressures coming into our business,” he said. “And we talked about it being about 5 percent over and above that number we guided to. We continue to watch that carefully… If we look further into the future, in probably 2024 we would see inflation coming down to long-run levels of about 2 to 3 percent.”

In terms of higher oil prices, Palmer explained that Newmont’s base assumption is $60 per barrel, and that every $10 increase per barrel reduces his company’s cash flow by $15 million.

However, he added that, “every $100 increase in gold price above the assumption that we make, means we generate $400 million of free cash flow every year… I talked earlier about our $1,800 assumption. [Gold] has spent a lot of this year at $1,900 to $1,950.”
 

Drivers of Gold Price

Palmer identified key supply and demand factors behind gold’s price.

“For gold, there are less discoveries taking place, so there’s less gold that’s going to be produced going forward,” he said. “And then there’s demand. One of the big demands for gold is jewelry in China and India. A growing middle class in both of those countries leads to greater demand for gold… I think you’ve also seen more of a move to gold as a safe haven, as a result of the volatility over the last couple of years.”

To find out Newmont’s plans for explorations and discoveries, and its ESG strategy, watch the above video.
 

By Kitco News

For Kitco News

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

Tim Moseley

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