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Gold sees routine corrective profit-taking pullback

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Gold sees routine corrective, profit-taking pullback

Gold prices are modestly down in midday U.S. trading Thursday. Silver prices are slightly up. Both metals are seeing some normal chart consolidation after hitting 12-month highs on Wednesday. Gold and silver bulls still have the strong near-term technical advantage to suggest the path of least resistance for prices remains sideways to higher. April gold was last down $6.30 at $2,014.90 and May silver is up $0.068 at $25.105.

Some upbeat U.S. jobless claims numbers rallied the U.S. dollar index briefly before it backed off later on. But this was enough to prompt a pullback in gold prices and some profit taking.

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are mixed at midday. Risk appetite this week has down-ticked. Reads a Wall Street Journal headline today: "Bank failures; high inflation; rising rates. Is the resilient jobs market about to crack?" A three-day holiday weekend for many markets likely has sellers in the gold and silver markets tentative, as both markets have seen their prices come up from their daily lows as midday approaches.

In overnight news, reports said that as the price of gold is back above $2,000 an ounce the countries of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa all plan to increase their gold reserves. This is due to "an increasingly bipolar geopolitical world—exacerbated by the war in Ukraine, says an ING analyst. He added such is a "structural positive for gold and structural negative for the U.S. dollar."

 Bank of America is looking for $2,100 gold price by Q2

The U.S. data point of the week is Friday's U.S. employment situation report for March from the Labor Department. The key non-farm payrolls number is seen coming in at up 238,000, compared to a rise of 311,000 in the February report. The U.S. markets will have to wait until Monday to react to the data, as they are closed on Friday for the Easter holiday.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly down after hitting a two-month low Tuesday. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly down and trading around $80.25 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.28% and has fallen this week.

Technically, April gold futures prices hit a 12-month high Wednesday. Bulls still have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in an uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the all-time high of $2,078.80, scored in March of 2022. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at this week's low of $1,950.00. First resistance is seen at today's high of $2,033.30 and then at this week's high of $2,033.80. First support is seen at $2,000.00 and then at Tuesday's low of $1,979.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0

May silver futures prices hit a 12-month high Wednesday. The silver bulls have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a steep uptrend on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $27.50. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $23.00. First resistance is seen at this week's high of $25.295 and then at $25.50. Next support is seen at today's low of $24.695 and then at $24.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0.

May N.Y. copper closed up 220 points at 400.85 cents today. Prices closed near mid-range today. The copper bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but have faded recently. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the March high of 417.45 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the March low of 382.20 cents. First resistance is seen at today's high of 403.15 cents and then at Tuesday's high of 407.15 cents. First support is seen at today's low of 397.10 cents and then at this week's low of 392.60 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

By

Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco New

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

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Gold futures consolidate forming a base at recent highs above 2030

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Gold futures consolidate forming a base at recent highs above $2030

The solid breakout that moved gold futures above $2000 to a high of $2043 yesterday, and $2049.20 today indicates a new level of support well above $2000 per ounce.

Currently, the most active June 2023 futures contract is fixed at $2037.10 a net decline of $1.1 or 0.05%. The fact that gold did not immediately sell off as it has in the past after hitting the highest price since gold hit $2077 last year indicates strong bullish market sentiment that continues to drive gold higher and more importantly hold those recent high prices.

Today’s fractional decline occurs with dollar strength which indicates that there are still traders bidding the precious metal higher although not enough to take gold futures higher on the day.

The same cannot be said for spot gold which is currently fixed at $2020 which is a net gain of $0.30. According to the Kitco Gold Index (KGX), today’s spot prices are a combination of investors bidding spot gold higher by $6.60 coupled with dollar strength taking gold lower by $6.30, thereby creating a fractional gain of $0.30. The dollar is currently up 0.30% and the index is fixed at 101.57.

The force that propelled gold well above $2000 yesterday was weaker U.S. economic data. The data suggested that the Federal Reserve could certainly consider slower rate hikes and a pause of rate hikes sooner. According to the CME’s FedWatch tool, there is a 55.9% probability that the Federal Reserve will not raise rates at the May FOMC meeting and begin to pause raising rates as they assess whether their former rate hikes indicate that their actions have put inflation on a firm trajectory towards their target of 2%.

The next key event that will shape the Federal Reserve’s decision will be Friday’s jobs report. This is because the Federal Reserve is laser-focused on the extremely robust labor market as a strong higher inflationary component.

On a technical basis, there is no resistance until $2069 the highest closing price for gold futures on record. With a short-term bias, you can use today’s low of $2026 as a potential solid support level.

By

Gary Wagner

Contributing to kitco.com

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

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Breakout in gold takes futures to a high of 204340 in striking range of record high

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Breakout in gold takes futures to a high of $2043.40 in striking range of record high

A solid breakout in gold moved futures pricing well above $2000 in trading today. Currently, the most active June 2023 contract is trading up $39.10 or 1.94% and fixed at $2039.40. That puts gold within striking range of the all-time high of $2088 as well as the record closing price for gold futures at $2069.40.

Dollar weakness contributed roughly 25% of the gains in gold today but it was market participants actively bidding the precious yellow metal higher that caused this current rally to accelerate. The dollar is currently down 0.53% and the dollar index is fixed at 101.25.

The primary fundamental event that propelled gold well above $2000 was weaker U.S. economic data. This data suggests that the Federal Reserve could certainly consider slower rate hikes and a pause of rate hikes sooner.

For the first time since May 2021, available new job positions have dropped below 10 million. Today CNBC reported that "Job openings fell below 10 million in February for the first time in nearly two years, in a sign that the Federal Reserve's efforts to slow the labor market may be having some impact. Available positions totaled 9.93 million, a drop of 632,000 from January's downwardly revised number, the Labor Department reported Tuesday in its monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey."

Because the Federal Reserve has been laser-focused on the extremely robust labor market as it uses its tools to reduce inflation today's report confirms that recent action by the Federal Reserve is beginning to have an impact as seen in the contraction of job openings.

The probability that the Federal Reserve will not raise rates at the May FOMC meeting has increased dramatically. According to the CME's FedWatch tool, there is a 58.7% probability that the Federal Reserve will leave its terminal rates of 4.75% to 5% and beginning a period of pausing rate hikes. However, there remains a 41.3% probability that the Fed will raise rates by ¼% in May.

There is no technical resistance in gold futures until $2069 the highest closing price for gold futures on record. There is solid support for gold at $2013 which is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the most recent leg of the rally. In other words, there is a high probability that gold futures will not only hold above $2000 but challenge the all-time record close.

By

Gary Wagner

Contributing to kitco.com

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

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Gold futures close above 2000 for the first time since March 2022

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Gold futures close above $2000 for the first time since March 2022

It has been just a little over one year ago that gold futures traded and closed above $2000 per ounce. On March 8, 2022 gold futures opened above $2000 per ounce, traded to a high of $2078 and closed at approximately $2043. Even though gold futures were able to close well above $2000, that price point was unsustainable. On the following day, March 9, 2022, gold opened at approximately $2060 and strong selling pressure drove prices back below $2000 closing at $1988.

Two weeks ago, gold challenged the key psychological level of $2000 per ounce on three occasions, however, gold was unable to sustain gains above $2000 on each occasion.

Today, the most active June 2023 futures contract opened at $1990, traded to a high of $2008, and as of 5:40 PM EST is fixed at $2001.70. Gold futures gained $15.50 or 0.78%.

Bullish market sentiment for gold has been evident since November of last year after hitting a triple bottom at approximately $1620 (from September to November). November 3 marked the lowest value of the triple bottom and the end of a multi-month correction. The first leg of the current bull market moved gold from $1620 to approximately $1975 during the first week of February.

The chart above is a 480-minute bar chart of gold futures (June contract month). It highlights a Western technical chart pattern called a triangle. According to topstockresearch.com, Symmetric Triangles are another type of triangle chart pattern used by traders. Again, like ascending and descending triangles it takes a few weeks to a few months for this type of pattern to form.

This pattern is composed of a lower ascending trendline which acts as support, and an upper descending trendline which forms the current level of resistance. Prices in this pattern will oscillate between the upper-level resistance trendline and the lower-level support trendline. During a bullish market scenario, you look for pricing to break above resistance, this typically occurs after multiple attempts to breach either the low or the high occurs with a breakout to the upside.

The question as to whether or not gold will be able to sustain its pricing above $2000 per ounce can only be answered after it has held that price point on a closing basis for a number of days.
 

By

Gary Wagner

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

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Gold price sees triple-digit gains in March but can it set record highs in April?

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Gold price sees triple-digit gains in March, but can it set record highs in April?

Gold gained $150 in March — its best month since July 2020. And with analysts seeing markets contradicting the Fed's messaging, gold has a lot more upside, including testing and breaking record highs in April, according to analysts.

The gold market is wrapping up March just below $2,000 an ounce. This is up 7% on the month and 9% year-to-date — the best monthly performance since July 2020 and the best quarterly result since Q2 2020.

The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank three weeks ago triggered the banking crisis, which revised the markets' Federal Reserve outlook from more rate hikes to rate cuts.

"This could morph into a financial crisis. There's been a large decline in market values of assets on the books across the regional banking sector in a significantly tighter environment. Not only was there a loss of market value but also large outflows of deposits from less restrictive to more restrictive banks," TD Securities global head of commodity strategy Bart Melek told Kitco News. "The Fed is less likely to be overly hawkish as we move into 2023."

And even with turbulence subsiding, gold is still trading at higher levels. "Gold hasn't come back down very far even though banking fears are abating for the moment. This is a strong sign and is very encouraging for gold bulls," Gainesville Coins precious metals expert Everett Millman told Kitco News.

Even though the Fed has not signaled that it is debating a rate cut, markets are starting to price that in. "With the bank space turbulence and inflation pointing down, I suspect that the market is looking past a lot of the Fed's hawkish rhetoric and is calling for a pivot that is significantly ahead of the dot plots," Melek pointed out.

Investors should pay close attention to the incoming data as any weaker-than-expected number increases the chance of a rate cut this year.

"With the risk of a hard landing for the economy on the rise, this increases the chances that inflation will fall more quickly and allow the Fed to respond with interest rate cuts before the end of this year," said ING chief international economist James Knightley.

Next week, traders will be getting the March employment report. Market consensus calls are projecting for the U.S. economy to have added 240,000 jobs and for the unemployment rate to have remained at 3.6%.

Following March events, TD Securities is now projecting gold to average $1,975 in Q2, $2,050 in Q3, and $2,100 in Q4.

Gold's first week of April

The gold space could experience some losses in the short term, warned Millman. "There is some downside risk. A relief rally in equities can drive some money out of gold," he said.

A solid support level is around $1,900 and $1,850, and immediate resistance is at $2,000 an ounce and then $2,060-70, he said.

"When you look at the shorts vs. longs in gold futures, the sentiment is still fairly neutral. If you see some swing in public perception, what's happening with the dollar or the U.S. economy, it could swing sentiment, and gold would be the first to react to that," Millman noted.

Banking crisis

It is unclear whether the volatility in the banking sector is over. But all the extra lending overseen by the Fed is yet to slow down, said Bannockburn Global Forex chief market strategist Marc Chandler.

"The banking stress that roiled the markets this month has eased. However, the emergency lending by the Federal Reserve, via the discount window and the new Bank Term Funding Program hardly slowed in the past week ($152.6 bln vs. $163.9 bln)," Chandler said Friday.

Barclays warned that the banking crisis is likely far from over, as a "second wave" of deposit outflows is coming.

"We think the first wave of outflows may be nearly over … But the recent tumult regarding deposit safety may have awakened 'sleepy' depositors and started what we believe will be a second wave of deposit departures, with balances moving into money market funds," Barclays strategist Joseph Abate said in a note.

A second wave of outflows is likely to be triggered by "sleepy" depositors moving their savings from banks to money-market funds for better and safer returns, Abate clarified.

"It is too hard to shift balances or to establish a new relationship with another institution unless there is a large, convincing yield pickup. But some of it could reflect the fact that after 15 years of near-zero rates, depositors are not in the habit of paying much attention to the yield on their cash balances," Abate said.

 

Next week's data

Monday: ISM manufacturing PMI

Tuesday: U.S. factory orders

Wednesday: U.S. ADP nonfarm employment, ISM services PMI

Thursday: U.S. jobless claims

Friday: U.S. nonfarm payrolls

By

Anna Golubova

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

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What Is Marketing Creation and How do you Define Value Creation from a Marketing Perspective

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What Is Marketing Creation and How do you Define Value Creation from a Marketing Perspective

marketing

Market creation is a challenging process that requires a deep understanding of customer needs and the competitive landscape. It involves identifying unmet needs and developing products or services that are uniquely positioned to meet those needs. This requires a significant investment of time, resources, and expertise to develop and bring the product to market.

Value creation is a crucial aspect of marketing because it helps businesses differentiate themselves from competitors and create a loyal customer base. Value can be created through a variety of ways, including providing high-quality products, excellent customer service, competitive pricing, and unique features or benefits. By creating value for customers, businesses can develop a strong reputation and brand identity, which can lead to increased sales and revenue.

From a marketing perspective, value creation is also about understanding the customer's journey and developing products or services that solve their problems at every touchpoint. This requires businesses to invest in customer research and feedback to identify pain points and areas for improvement.

In addition to understanding customer needs, market creation also involves developing a comprehensive marketing strategy that includes market research, segmentation, targeting, positioning, and promotion. By understanding the competitive landscape and developing a unique value proposition, businesses can effectively launch their product or service and gain market share.

Overall, market creation and value creation are essential components of successful marketing and business growth. By identifying unmet needs and creating products or services that meet those needs, businesses can differentiate themselves from competitors and build a loyal customer base. With a comprehensive marketing strategy and a commitment to value creation, businesses can successfully launch new products and services and achieve long-term success in the market.

In summary, market creation is the process of identifying and developing a new market, while value creation refers to the process of creating value for customers through the development of products or services that meet their needs and desires. Together, market creation and value creation are essential for successful marketing and business growth.

markethive

Here are some ways to get better at market creation:

  1. Research and analyze the market: To create a new market, you need to have a deep understanding of the existing market and the potential opportunities for growth. This requires conducting thorough market research and analyzing the competition to identify unmet needs and areas for growth.

  2. Identify customer needs: The key to market creation is identifying customer needs that are not currently being met. Conducting market research and gathering customer feedback can help identify these unmet needs.

  3. Develop a unique value proposition: Once you have identified the customer needs, develop a unique value proposition that sets your product or service apart from the competition. This could be in the form of a unique feature, a better customer experience, or a more affordable price point.

  4. Create a comprehensive marketing strategy: A comprehensive marketing strategy is essential to successfully launch a new product or service. This should include market research, segmentation, targeting, positioning, and promotion.

  5. Test and iterate: Once you have developed your product or service and launched it into the market, you need to continuously test and iterate based on customer feedback. This will help you improve your product or service and stay ahead of the competition.

  6. Invest in talent: Market creation requires a team of talented individuals with diverse skill sets. Invest in talent by hiring people with expertise in marketing, product development, sales, and customer service.

  7. Stay agile and adaptable: The market is constantly changing, and businesses that are able to adapt quickly will have a competitive advantage. Stay agile and adaptable by monitoring market trends and adjusting your strategy as needed.

Tim Moseley

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Gold’s most active contract switches to June which are flirting with 2000

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Gold’s most active contract switches to June which are flirting with $2000

Gold traded higher by low double digits today. The gains are the result of two factors and tomorrow’s PCE inflation report. Currently, the April 2023 contract of gold futures is trading up $14.20 and fixed at $1981.10. Concurrently, the June 2023 contract of gold futures is fixed at $1998 up $13.50. Today the June contract hit an intraday high of $2002.40.

The volume is diminishing in the April contract with an open interest of 88,563. The volume in the June contract has an open interest of 145,716. Traders are switching from the April contract to the June contract which is next in line to be the most active.

The dollar is currently trading lower by 0.43% and the dollar index is fixed at 101.86. The dollar has had a strong decline since October of last year when the index traded to an intraday high of 114. It seems that the days of extreme dollar strength have greatly diminished and we anticipate that the dollar index could break below 100.

Yields on government bonds are also lower which has greatly enhanced the demand for gold as a haven asset. Gains in U.S. equities did little to diminish demand for the haven assets and did not seem to have any detrimental effect on Gold pricing today.

As we spoke about yesterday, market participants who are anticipating a Fed pivot from raising rates to cutting rates have been largely disappointed. It is accepted by analysts and economists that the Federal Reserve will continue to either raise rates or pause rates at some point soon.

The CME’s FedWatch tool indicates that professional traders are almost split between anticipating a ¼% rate hike or a pause in interest rate hikes at the next FOMC meeting which begins around a month from today and concludes on May 3. According to the CME’s probability indicator, there is a 43.6% probability that the Federal Reserve will pause its hawkish monetary policy of raising rates at each FOMC meeting, and a 56.4% probability that the Fed will raise rates by ¼%. Yesterday the CME’s FedWatch tool indicated that there was a 67.4% probability that the Fed would pause rates with a 37.6% probability of a ¼% rate hike. This is a pretty dramatic shift in the last 24 hours.

Lastly, the preferred inflation indicator of the Federal Reserve, the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index) will be released tomorrow, March 31. Currently, forecasters believe that inflation levels will remain elevated. If the PCE does remain elevated as currently predicted it could strengthen the resolve of the Federal Reserve to raise rates rather than take a pause.

By

Gary Wagner

Contributing to kitco.com

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

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Why You Should Use Press Releases to Market Your Business

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Why You Should Use Press Releases to Market Your Business

Press releases can be an effective tool for marketing your business for several reasons:

  1. Increased visibility: A well-written press release can help your business gain exposure and visibility to a wider audience. When a press release is picked up by news outlets, it can reach a large number of potential customers.

  2. Credibility: Press releases are often viewed as more credible than traditional advertising because they are written in a news format and are typically distributed by news organizations.

  3. Cost-effective: Press releases can be a cost-effective way to market your business, especially if you are a small business with limited marketing budget. Compared to other advertising methods, press releases are relatively inexpensive to produce and distribute.

  4. Brand building: Press releases can help build your brand by highlighting your company's achievements, products, and services. By consistently issuing press releases, you can establish your business as an authority in your industry and increase brand awareness.

  5. SEO benefits: Press releases can also be beneficial for search engine optimization (SEO). By including relevant keywords and links in your press release, you can improve your search engine rankings and drive more traffic to your website.

 

ecosystem for entrepreneurs

Overall, using press releases to market your business can help you reach a larger audience, build credibility, and increase brand awareness in a cost-effective way.

  1. Reach targeted audiences: Press releases can be targeted to specific audiences, such as industry publications or local news outlets. By tailoring your press release to a particular audience, you can increase the chances of your story being picked up and reaching the right people.

  2. Opportunity for media coverage: A well-written press release can lead to media coverage, which can further increase your business's visibility and credibility. Journalists often rely on press releases as a source of news, and if your story is interesting and relevant, it may be picked up by a news outlet.

  3. Crisis management: Press releases can be used to address and manage crisis situations. If your business is facing a negative event or controversy, a well-crafted press release can help you communicate your side of the story and control the narrative.

  4. Establish relationships with media contacts: Consistently issuing press releases can help you establish relationships with journalists and media outlets. By providing relevant and interesting stories, you can become a trusted source of news and increase the chances of your future press releases being picked up.

  5. Measurable results: Press releases can provide measurable results in terms of website traffic, media coverage, and brand awareness. By tracking the results of your press releases, you can determine the effectiveness of your marketing strategy and adjust it accordingly.

In summary, press releases can be a valuable tool for marketing your business. By increasing visibility, building credibility, reaching targeted audiences, and providing measurable results, press releases can help you establish your brand, communicate with your audience, and achieve your marketing goals.

 

ecosystem for entrepreneurs

Tim Moseley

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What Is Content Marketing?

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What Is Content Marketing?

by contentmarketinginstitute

marketing

Useful content should be at the core of your marketing

Traditional marketing is becoming less and less effective by the minute; as a forward-thinking marketer, you know there has to be a better way.

Enter content marketing.

Content marketing is a strategic marketing approach focused on creating and distributing valuable, relevant, and consistent content to attract and retain a clearly defined audience — and, ultimately, to drive profitable customer action.

Instead of pitching your products or services, you are providing truly relevant and useful content to your prospects and customers to help them solve their issues.

Content marketing is used by leading brands

Our annual research shows the vast majority of marketers are using content marketing. In fact, it is used by many prominent organizations in the world, including P&G, Microsoft, Cisco Systems, and John Deere. It’s also developed and executed by small businesses and one-person shops around the globe. Why? Because it works.

Here is just one example of content marketing in action:

Looking for definitions of the key terms used in content marketing? You’ll find them in our Essential Content Marketing Glossary.

Content marketing is good for your bottom line — and your customers

Specifically, there are four key reasons – and benefits – for enterprises to use content marketing:

  • Increased sales
  • Cost savings
  • Better customers who have more loyalty
  • Content as a profit center

Content is the present – and future – of marketing

Go back and read the content marketing definition one more time, but this time remove the relevant and valuable. That’s the difference between content marketing and the other informational garbage you get from companies trying to sell you “stuff.” Companies send us information all the time – it’s just that most of the time it’s not very relevant or valuable (can you say spam?). That’s what makes content marketing so intriguing in today’s environment of thousands of marketing messages per person per day.

Marketing is impossible without great content

Regardless of what type of marketing tactics you use, content marketing should be part of your process, not something separate. Quality content is part of all forms of marketing:

  • Social media marketing: Content marketing strategy comes before your social media strategy.
  • SEO: Search engines reward businesses that publish quality, consistent content.
  • PR: Successful PR strategies should address issues readers care about, not their business.
  • PPC: For PPC to work, you need great content behind it.
  • Inbound marketing: Content is key to driving inbound traffic and leads.
  • Content strategy: Content strategy is part of most content marketing strategies.

Content Marketing vs. Inbound Marketing

To be effective at content marketing, it is essential to have a documented content marketing strategy. Download our 16-page guide to learn what questions to ask and how to develop your strategy.

What if your customers looked forward to receiving your marketing? What if when they received it, via print, email, website, they spent 15, 30, 45 minutes with it? What if they anticipated it and shared it with their peers?

If you are intrigued and ready to learn more, we can help. Here are a few popular ways to dig in:

  • New to content marketing? Check out our getting started guide, where you’ll learn the definition of content marketing, as well as basic steps for putting a content marketing plan in place.
  • Need a content strategy? Read the CMI Content Marketing Framework, which outlines the essential building blocks for a successful content marketing program.
  • Looking for some content marketing examples? Download this e-book: 40 Content Marketing Examples.
  • Are you in marketing leadership? Subscribe to our free magazine, Chief Content Officer, to stay on top of the latest industry trends.
  • Need advice specific to your organization? Contact our consulting group, led by strategist Robert Rose, to find out how they can help you meet your content marketing challenges.

If at any time you have questions about content marketing, don’t hesitate to reach out and ask us.

Tim Moseley

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Gold remains solidly bullish even with today’s modest price decline

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Gold remains solidly bullish even with today’s modest price decline

Although gold prices had a modest decline in trading today, the overall fundamental environment that had caused gold pricing to trade above $2000 last week remains solidly entrenched. Today’s modest single-digit decline in gold resulted from market participants once again focusing on risk-on assets with U.S. equities rising. Specifically, a major rise of 1.97% in the NASDAQ composite indicates solid interest in the tech-heavy index. The Dow Jones industrial average gained 1% and the S&P 500 increased by 1.42%.

Positive market sentiment for US equities coupled with minor dollar strength could have easily tipped traders to take profits on long positions in gold. As of 5:25 PM EST gold futures basis the most active April contract is down $7.30 or 0.37% and fixed at $1966.20.



However, June gold futures which will be the next most active contract is currently fixed at $1983.10 booking the same dollar decline of $7.30 but are priced almost $20 above the April contract. The large differential of almost $20 between the two contract months clearly illustrates market sentiment is exceedingly bullish long-term for gold.

Market participants who were anticipating a Fed pivot from raising rates to cutting rates have been largely disappointed. However, it must be noted that the CME’s FedWatch tool indicates that professional traders are anticipating a pause in rate hikes in 34 days when the Federal Reserve concludes its May FOMC meeting on May 3, 2023. According to the CME’s probability indicator, there is a 67.4% probability that the Federal Reserve will not raise rates and a 37.6% probability that they will implement another 25 bps rate hike.

Lastly, the preferred inflation indicator of the Federal Reserve, the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index) will be released this Friday, March 31. Currently forecasts believe that inflation levels will remain elevated. If the PCE remains elevated as currently predicted it could pressure the Federal Reserve to raise rates rather than take a pause at the May FOMC meeting.

By

Gary Wagner

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

The Artist that came out of the Winter