Inflation fears force hedge funds to ditch gold increase bearish bets in silver

Inflation fears force hedge funds to ditch gold, increase bearish bets in silver

Gold and silver continue to defy the odds as the precious metals hold critical support even as inflation fears prompted hedge funds to liquidate their bullish positionings and increase their speculative bets, according to the latest trade data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Commodity analysts at Société Générale noted that the gold market led speculative outflows in the commodity space last week as $6.9 billion fled the precious metal.

The CFTC's disaggregated Commitments of Traders report for the week ending Feb. 13 showed money managers decreased their speculative gross long positions in Comex gold futures by 13,674 contracts to 100,642. At the same time, short positions increased by 20,219 contracts to 66,466 contracts.

The gold market is now net long by only 34,176 contracts as bullish speculative positioning falls to its lowest level since Oct. 16. Although bullish interest in gold continues to weaken, the price continues to hold critical support at $2,000.

Bearish momentum in gold picked up last week after the U.S. Labor Department said that its Consumer Price Index rose more than expected, increasing 3.1% in the 12 months to January. Inflation was hotter than expected, as economists were expecting the annual CPI to rise 2.9%.

Renewed inflation fears caused markets to push back the timing of a potential rate cut from the Federal Reserve. A March rate cut has been pretty much priced out of the market and there is less than 50% chance of easing in May.

Although gold prices have room to move lower, analysts see a relatively solid floor in the market as the Federal Reserve is expected to eventually ease its monetary policy.

"We have highlighted on several occasions in recent months that both [gold and silver] are likely to remain stuck until we get a better understanding about the delivery of future U.S. rate cuts. Until the first cut is delivered, the market may at times run ahead of itself, in the process building up rate cut expectations to levels that leave prices vulnerable to a correction," said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, in a comment to Kitco News Friday.

At the same time, while lackluster Western investment demand keeps a lid on prices, Hansen noted that the market continues to be supported by robust Asian demand.

“Gold will likely struggle in the short term, but as the rate cut expectations are being dialed back, but overall, I look forward to seeing how Chinese investors respond to slightly lower prices next week. I believe the physical demand from central banks and retail investors, not least in China, will continue to provide a soft floor under the market,” he said.

Commodity analyst at TD Securities said that the gold market is building momentum for a potential short squeeze as macro traders are under-positioned for the Federal Reserve’s easing cycle.

“This highlights a set-up for the yellow metal that is ripe with asymmetry and prone to a material short squeeze as Fed officials contemplate the start of a cutting cycle. In this sense, algorithmic selling exhaustion has already morphed into buying activity, adding pressure on macro trader shorts,” the analysts said.

Along with gold, silver has also struggled as potentially higher for longer interest rates pushes the market into bearish positioning.

The disaggregated report showed that money-managed speculative gross long positions in Comex silver futures rose by 903 contracts to 33,004. At the same time, short positions rose by 5,287 contracts to 41,987 contracts.

Sentiment in the silver market pushed further into bearish territory by 8,983 contracts. Speculative short positioning has risen to its highest level since early March 2023.

Despite the bearish sentiment, silver prices held critical support at $22 an ounce. The precious metal bounced off a three-month low to end last week with nearly a 7% gain.

Although interest rate expectations are weighing on silver, some analysts have said that silver is a more attractive inflation hedge than gold and could start to outperform the yellow metal.

Kitco Media

Neils Christensen

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Make Money With PLR Content

Make Money With PLR Content

Private Label Rights PLR Content

Private Label Rights (PLR) content is a type of content that is created by someone else and then made available for purchase and use by other people. PLR content can be used to create blog posts, ebooks, videos, and other digital products. Many people are making thousands of dollars a month by using PLR content to create their own products and sell them online. In this blog post, I will be sharing the steps you can follow to use PLR to make $5000 a month without your own list.

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The first step in making money with PLR is to select a profitable niche. A profitable niche is a niche that has high demand and low competition. You can use tools like Google Trends and Keyword Planner to research profitable niches.

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STEP 2: CUSTOMIZE THE PLR CONTENT.

The next step is to customize the PLR content to make it unique. This can be done by adding your own voice and personality to the content, as well as by adding your own images, videos, and graphics.

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STEP 4: SET UP A SALES FUNNEL. PLR CONTENT

A sales funnel is a series of steps that lead a prospect to becoming a customer. The first step in setting up a sales funnel is to create a lead magnet. A lead magnet is a free piece of content that you offer in exchange for a prospect’s email address.

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Robert Kiyosaki Forecasts Bitcoin Surge To 100000 By June 2024

Robert Kiyosaki Forecasts Bitcoin Surge To $100,000 By June 2024

By Newton Gitonga – February 19, 2024

Robert Kiyosaki, the author of the best-selling personal finance book “Rich Dad Poor Dad,” has forecasted that the price of Bitcoin could reach $100,000 by June 2024.

In a tweet on Monday, Kiyosaki stated, “BITCOIN to $100k by June 2024.” This is not the first time Kiyosaki has expressed his support for Bitcoin.

Kiyosaki has long been an advocate for investing in assets that can serve as a hedge against inflation, such as gold, silver, and Bitcoin. In a recent tweet, he explained that he sees these assets as “parachutes for your personal soft landing” in the event of a global economic crash.

Kiyosaki also discussed the importance of understanding the nature of money and the problems with central banking. He criticized the government’s ability to print money, stating that it is a form of theft that transfers wealth from savers to the government and the wealthy.

“BAIL OUT, BAIL OUT, BAIL OUT: In US Navy Flight School, student pilots learn how to fly and how to crash their plane. Financial losers will lose money because they do not know what to do with their money as banks fail and world economy crashes. For many years, I have warned, ‘Buy Gold, Silver, Bitcoin.” He wrote.

In an interview last week, he discussed the upcoming Bitcoin halving event and its potential impact on the price of the cryptocurrency. The Bitcoin halving, which is scheduled to take place in April 2024, is a pre-programmed event in which the reward for mining new blocks on the Bitcoin network is cut in half. This happens every four years and is intended to help maintain the scarcity of Bitcoin, as the total supply is limited to 21 million coins.

In the interview, he expressed his belief that the price of Bitcoin could reach six figures in the coming years. of a Bitcoin, making it accessible to investors with any amount of capital.

Kiyosaki also expressed his support for the decentralized nature of Bitcoin, stating that it is a fair and equitable economic system that is not subject to the same manipulation and corruption as traditional fiat currencies.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin continued its strong performance on Monday, following two consecutive weeks of bullish action. At press time, the cryptocurrency was trading at $52,084 after a surge of 0.65% in the past 24 hours. In addition, Bitcoin’s trading volume saw a slight increase, rising by 5.51% to $21.7 billion in the same duration.

DISCLAIMER

The views expressed in the article are wholly those of the author and do not represent those of, nor should they be attributed to, ZyCrypto. This article is not meant to give financial advice. Please carry out your own research before investing in any of the various cryptocurrencies available.

The original article written by Newton Gitonga and posted on ZyCrypto.com.

Article reposted on Markethive by Jeffrey Sloe

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Tim Moseley

Are investors swapping their gold for Bitcoin as inflation fears rise?

Are investors swapping their gold for Bitcoin as inflation fears rise?

For months now, economists have warned consumers that inflation will be a challenging monster to slay, that that last push to get prices below 2% will be a hard mile, or a tough row to hoe; take your pick of analogies or metaphors because they are all true.

This past week, we saw both consumer and producer prices rise more than expected, and while prices have come down from their 2022 peaks, we are still a long way from the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%.

Gold and silver prices dropped to multi-month lows, testing critical support at $2,000 and $22 an ounce, respectively. Investors continue to flee the gold market as higher-for-longer interest rates support higher bond yields and a stronger U.S. dollar.

Instead of gold, investors continue to push equities to record highs, and they also see new opportunities in Bitcoin. This past week, Kitco’s Jordan Finneseth noted that so far this year, more than $3 billion has flowed out of global gold-backed exchange-traded products. At the same time, the newly approved Bitcoin ETFs have seen total inflows of $4.115 billion.

Finneseth noted that with inflows of $4 billion, the cryptocurrency ETFs achieved in one month what took the gold market two years.

However, even in this difficult environment, we still must acknowledge the underlying strength of the precious metals market.

Despite the selling pressure, the precious metals were able to hold critical support levels. Silver, in particular, has rallied 7% from its lows earlier this week. Gold and silver may not be attractive assets as the Federal Reserve maintains its aggressive monetary policy stance; however, very few investors are actively shorting these assets.

Along with the inflation threat, fears of a recession have not completely disappeared; at the same time, there is enough geopolitical uncertainty to maintain a robust safe-haven bid in gold.

Let’s also not forget that a healthy physical gold market provides some price support. According to the National Retailers Federation, U.S. consumers were expected to spend a record $6.4 billion in jewelry for this year’s Valentine's Day. Jewelry purchases represented a significant portion of the $25.8 billion expected to be spent on gifts ahead of Feb. 14.

Meanwhile, China continues to assert its dominance in the gold market. According to a report from the World Gold Council, China’s gold market set all-time highs in several sectors in January. The WGC noted that 271 tonnes of gold was withdrawn from the Shanghai Gold Exchange last month, the busiest January on record and the third-biggest in the exchange’s entire history. Total holdings in Chinese-listed gold ETFs hit a record high last month At the same time, the People’s Bank of China continued to buy gold for the 15th consecutive month.

Despite the selling pressure in the gold market, there are some significant pillars of strength, and for many analysts, buying on dips is seen as a solid tactical investment.

Kitco Media

Neils Christensen

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Ignore gold and focus on silver as prices rally 7 from support

Ignore gold and focus on silver as prices rally 7% from support

Rising inflation pressures have taken their toll on the gold market. While a lot has been thrown at the precious metal, it continues to hold critical support, at least for now, according to some analysts.

Although gold is ending its second week in negative territory, it is entering the weekend well off its lows after holding critical support at $2,000 an ounce. April gold futures last traded at $2,025.60 an ounce, down 0.64% from last Friday.

Analysts note that gold has struggled as hotter-than-expected consumer and producer prices force investors to push back the start of the Federal Reserve's easing cycle. Markets see only a 10% chance of a March rate cut; at the same time, the CME FedWatch Tool shows markets see only a 33% chance of a move in May. However, there are still solid expectations that the U.S. central bank could start easing interest rates in June.

Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, said that although gold could see further selling pressure in the near term, he remains bullish in the long term.

"We have highlighted on several occasions in recent months that both [gold and silver] are likely to remain stuck until we get a better understanding about the delivery of future U.S. rate cuts. Until the first cut is delivered, the market may at times run ahead of itself, in the process building up rate cut expectations to levels that leave prices vulnerable to a correction," he said.

However, Hansen added that despite the risks of lower prices, robust physical demand in Asia should continue to provide support for gold until investors come in to drive prices higher.

"Gold will likely struggle in the short term as rate cut expectations are being dialed back. But overall, I look forward to seeing how Chinese investors respond to slightly lower prices next week. I believe the physical demand from central banks and retail investors, not least in China, will continue to provide a soft floor under the market," he added.

Barbara Lambrecht, commodity analyst at Commerzbank, said that she is not expecting to see much movement in gold in the near term as the market remains caught in a tug-of-war between investors looking for the Fed to cut rates and others expecting higher for longer.

"As the market is already very cautious with regard to key interest rates, the potential for further corrections is likely to be rather small. After all, key interest rate cuts are still expected this year," she said.

Markets will be closed on Monday in recognition of Presidents' Day. With markets balancing on a knife's edge, analysts have said that investors will be paying close attention to the minutes of the Federal Reserve's January monetary policy meeting. Gold could be sensitive to any comments regarding the timing of the central bank's first rate cut.

Silver is the metal to watch

Julia Cordova, Founder of CordovaTrades and author of the weekly newsletter The MoneyMaker, said she sees more potential in silver.

"Silver looks to have been basing," she said. "Silver will dramatically outperform gold to the upside next week."

Michele Schneider, director of trading education and research at MarketGauge, said she is also paying more attention to silver and is completely neutral on gold.

"I am pretty much ignoring gold until prices fall to $1,920 or break above $2,100 an ounce," she said.

Schneider said that silver, because of its robust industrial demand, is in a perfect position to benefit from rising inflation.

"We're heading into an inflation that the Fed is not necessarily ready for or possibly able to control without killing gold," she said. Nobody's going to fly to silver as a safety flight unless they're worried about inflation. Right now, we just might need to be concerned about inflation."

The bullish calls on silver come as prices have managed to hold critical support at $22 an ounce and are ending the week testing initial resistance at $23.50 an ounce. The silver price is ending the week up 7% from its lows.

Economic data for the week

Wednesday: FOMC meeting minutes

Thursday: Flash US PMI, Weekly jobless claims, U.S. existing home sales

Kitco Media

Neils Christensen

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Analysts doubt gold’s strength next week retail traders don’t stop believing

Analysts doubt gold’s strength next week, retail traders don’t stop believing

As expected, the gold market got its direction from inflation data this week, with the only major move being the sharp price decline on Tuesday morning following hotter-than-expected CPI data for January, which drove spot gold from just under $2,030 per ounce in the minutes before the 8:30 am EST release all the way to $1,991 an hour and a half later.

 

After that, prices largely traded within a narrow $12 channel on both sides of the $2,000 level until Friday morning’s PPI release caused another smaller selloff. This was followed by a sharp if shallow rebound, after which prices climbed steadily into the President’s Day long weekend.

The latest Kitco News Weekly Gold Survey showed Wall Street and Main Street diverging once again in their price expectations, with a large proportion of retail investors seeing potential gains next week, while analysts see a strong case for precious metal prices to slide.

“April gold posted a bearish breakout of its previous short-term sideways trend this week, extending its intermediate-term downtrend to a low of $1,996.40 (so far),” said Darin Newsom, Senior Market Analyst at Barchart.com. “At the same time, the long-term uptrend of the US dollar index is gaining momentum. The next downside target for April gold is $1,970.50.”

Adam Button, head of currency strategy at Forexlive.com, sees lower gold prices next week. “I think there are seasonal adjustment problems with the latest CPI and PPI numbers, but it could be months before that’s clear to the market,” he said. “For now, it’s tough to fight the tide of rising Treasury yields and a higher US dollar.”

Mark Leibovit, publisher of the VR Metals/Resource Letter, said he expects gold prices to rally after a possible correction.

“The question is at what point will the gold suppression stop to help implement physical acquisition,” he said. “First big support range is in the mid-1900s and with risk clear down to the mid-1700s. Our cyclical model in our VR Forecast Report opens up both possibilities before we surge as high as 2700.”

Leibovit pointed out that the U.S. still faces significant economic and political risks at home. “Will the U.S. default on its debt? Is the banking crisis just on hold due to the upcoming Presidential election? The overall stock market has a 'crash' risk between now and mid-year which has to be factored in,” he said. “Next week gold looks higher.”

Adrian Day, President of Adrian Day Asset Management, sees gold continuing in its sideways price channel next week. “Gold will react up and down to the various economic reports that come in, until it is clear that the Federal reserve is going to cut rates,” he said. “We are not yet at that point.”

James Stanley, senior market strategist at Forex.com, remains bullish on gold’s near-term prospects.

“Dollar bulls had an open lane to run this week, but the comment from Goolsbee on Wednesday about not getting ‘flipped out’ over an inflation print turned that around quickly,” he said. “I think we’ll see the Fed continue to lean dovish and that’s a positive for gold.”

 

Stanley said spot gold’s test below $2,000 this week was telling, because it couldn’t hold below for very long. “I think we’ll see bulls try to run it back towards 2039 next week,” he said.

Sean Lusk, co-director of commercial hedging at Walsh Trading, was trying to decipher the significance of the gold market’s price movements on Friday.

“The dollar's backed off here, so the metal's got to jump, but this might be one last push per the seasonals on the metals,” he said. “They usually die around Valentine's Day, you're in the Presidents Day weekend and then it backs off. We've had some technical damage done there. Silver's carving out a nice little bottom here, $23.20 on the low.”

Lusk said part of gold’s subsequent move higher was probably driven by traders wanting to be long gold over the long weekend, given the conflicts and other geopolitical risks at play.

“We dipped below $2,000 in gold, and boy it didn’t stay there for long, did it?” he said. “But the CPI number did that in, and I think the market is slowly starting to realize that things are becoming more inflationary, given the recent data. You had retail sales moving lower yesterday, a poor number there. You had one big down day in the stock market, and then they just bring it back up.”

“It just doesn't make any sense,” Lusk said. “The interest that we're going to have to pay on our debt is just going to be so massive moving forward here, and the trade does not care. Seven or eight stocks are driving this thing higher. That's primarily the reason why you're getting the reaction in the stock market that you are, because of earnings results that didn't disappoint.”

“But underneath, you’ve got geopolitical [issues], you have shipping routes shut down,” he warned. “What are they going to do about Russia? Is this war going to expand? Is it going to get nastier? Hezbollah's coming out and saying they're not going to stop attacking Israel. So you're going into a long weekend and saying ‘okay, if the market doesn't break on bearish news, which is positive dollar, it's inherently bullish,’ and that's pretty much the reaction. But, again, the reaction's limp.”

Lusk is now looking at the mid-November low of $1,975 on the April contract. “About a month prior to that they took it up on a spike to $2,171,” he noted. “Dips continue to be bought and support levels are holding here. We haven't turned over this market.”

Lusk said that one thing the recent data has achieved is to eliminate “all this nonsense about rate cuts” and markets are slowly starting to come to grips with this, even though the stock market doesn't seem to care, as evidenced by its recent all-time highs.

 

“But what would send ripples through the stock market would be if they had to raise rates to combat inflation,” he said. “If these numbers, CPI, PPI next month continue to surge, because we got a little uptick in energy prices and some other things, we could see this thing push higher.”

But Lusk predominantly sees downside risks for gold since the last employment report was released.

“We broke gold over $80 here,” he said. “It could go a lot further next week. If they take this rally and dunk it, it would go to 5% down from here, which is about $1,968. We're going to blow through those early November lows and retest that area.”

“If this thing really gets hammered… we closed last year at $2,071. They'll punch this sucker 10% down, a $200 break in the market from that level.”

Lusk said that amid all the uncertainties, he’s bullish over the weekend at least. “But you’ve got to watch out for that seasonal, because the second half of February through March into tax season is usually met with more sellers than buyers, and the path of least resistance is lower.”

“We need some follow through here,” he said about gold’s modest Friday gains. “If not, I wouldn't be surprised if next week, all things being equal, we take out $2,000 and start moving lower.”

This week, 14 analysts participated in the Kitco News Gold Survey, and Wall Street seems to see very little upside potential for gold in the near term. Only three experts, or 21%, expected to see higher gold prices next week, while the clear majority of 8 analysts, representing 57%, predicted a price drop, and another three experts, or 21%, expected gold prices to trade sideways during the coming week.

Meanwhile, 221 votes were cast in Kitco’s online polls, with a plurality of Main Street still maintaining a bullish attitude. 94 retail investors, representing 42%, looked for gold to rise next week. Another 72, or 33%, predicted it would be lower, while 55 respondents, or 25%, were neutral on the near-term prospects for the precious metal.

Aside from weekly jobless claims and a smattering of Fed speakers, next week promises to be a quiet one on the data front, with Wednesday’s release of the FOMC meeting minutes the only significant event on the docket.

Everett Millman, Chief Market Analyst at Gainesville Coins, was also looking at the bounce gold got in the late morning on Friday.

“Part of it could just be the market realizing that it had overreacted to the downside,” he said. “It could be a little bit of mean regression. But I have to admit that I expected that move to be confirmed.”

“Both the hotter than expected PPI and the CPI we got recently, those all play into the narrative that the U. S. economy is a bit more robust than expected,” he said. “That's really gold-negative given that I think a lot of what's priced into the higher gold price is this expectation for some sort of nearing economic crisis or at minimum, a recession or economic downturn, so any positive economic data contradicts that.”

“Then at the same time, if PPI and CPI are higher than expected, that is going to play into the higher-for-longer expectation, and if rates are higher, that means real rates will remain higher, bond yields will go up,” he added. “All of that does work against gold.”

Millman said that with U.S. markets closed for the President’s Day holiday on Monday while China’s markets reopen again after the Lunar New Year holiday, traders may be positioning themselves for a higher move in the short term.

“China will be trading for basically a whole session before US markets reopen on Tuesday,” he said. “Maybe the thinking behind this move is they don't want to get caught on the wrong side of it.”

Turning to next week’s economic news, Millman said that with the FOMC minutes the only significant release, he believes gold prices are more likely to decline than to rally.

“I'm leaning towards downside risk,” he said. “I think that we got a pretty clear picture after the meeting and after Powell's comments that the Fed is definitely sticking to higher-for-longer for now. March was taken off the table for a rate cut. And the minutes are really the only data point other than Fed members speaking to the public. I think there's downside risk to the FOMC minutes, given that they could reveal or reinforce that more hawkish tone that the Fed seems to be taking right now.”

Millman said this week’s CPI and PPI data only reinforce that expectation for him. “Obviously that data came out afterward,” he said. “But I wouldn't be surprised if the Fed had some early indicators or some of their own data that showed that indeed, inflation is potentially bouncing back higher. Powell's comments lead me to believe that, if only because he was so reluctant to declare victory, or to say much about inflation coming down, although it has quite a bit.”

He said what he’ll really be looking for are any references to banking and a possible credit crunch.

“I’ll be interested to see if there was any mention in the minutes about the health of the banking sector,” Millman said. “We saw that was a big driver for gold last year around this time, when we started hearing about bank failures. Conspicuously, in the FOMC statement they removed any language about, ‘the banking system is resilient, blah, blah, blah’ that had stayed in there for nearly a year.”

“I think that may be a telling aspect of this,” he said. “Does the Fed have that on its radar? Are they worried about the banking system or on the other hand, are they trying to reassure markets about the strength of the U.S. banking system? I think that would be the main thing to watch. And in the absence of that, I feel like it can only be potential downside risk for gold.”

Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, will be watching Chinese buyers as they return from a week off after welcoming the Year of the Dragon. “Gold will likely struggle in the short term but as the rate cut expectations are being dialed back, but overall I look forward to see how Chinese investors respond to slightly lower prices next week,” he said.

“I like gold lower,” said Marc Chandler, Managing Director at Bannockburn Global Forex. “US inflation–CPI and PPI–were a bit stronger than expected. This helped lift the dollar and US rates. To me, the dollar and rates are more important a driver of gold than its function as an inflation hedge.”

Chandler pointed out that markets learned this week that the Japanese and UK economies contracted for the second consecutive quarter in Q4 23. “While US retail sales and industrial output contracted in January, the momentum of the economy suggests something still above trend,” he said. “Data due in the coming days are unlikely to undermine the new divergence. That said, I do look for the dollar to top soon…DXY is up for the 6th of the past seven weeks this year. And the week it was down, it fell by about 0.1%.”

“I like the $1950-65 area,” Chandler said.

And Kitco Senior Analyst Jim Wyckoff sees gold prices skewing lower next week. “Steady-lower, as near-term price trend is down,” he said.

Spot gold last traded at $2,013.18 at the time of writing, up 0.44% on the day but down 0.55% on the week.

Kitco Media

Ernest Hoffman

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Gold silver rebound amid downbeat US retail sales report

Gold, silver rebound amid downbeat U.S. retail sales report

Gold and silver prices are higher in midday U.S. trading Thursday, on corrective rebounds following recent selling pressure and after a U.S. retail sales report that was weaker than expected. April gold was last up $9.60 at $2,013.90. March silver was last up $0.508 at $22.895.

The January U.S. retail sales contracted by 0.8% compared to December, marking the largest decline since March of 2023. This downturn contrasts with a modest 0.4% increase in December and fell short of market expectations, which had anticipated a 0.1% decrease. The decline was widespread across various sectors. However, some sectors saw growth. January typically sees a decline in retail sales following the strong December holiday shopping season. Still, the report falls into the camp of the U.S. monetary policy doves, who want to see the Federal Reserve cut interest rates sooner rather than later.

Asian and European stock markets were mixed to firmer in overnight trading. U.S. stock index futures are mixed near midday.

The next U.S. inflation report comes with Friday’s producer price index report for January, seen coming in at up 0.1% from December, compared to a 0.1% month-on-month decline in the December PPI report. A Wall Street Journal headline today reads: “Pro Take: No big consumer price declines are in sight.”

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower after hitting a three-month high Tuesday. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $78.25 a barrel. Reads a Dow Jones Newswires headline today: Higher global oil supply set to satisfy demand increase, IEA says.”

The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching around 4.23%.

Technically, April gold futures saw short covering featured after prices hit a three-month low Wednesday. The bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a nine-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the February high of $2,083.20. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the November low of $1,975.10. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $2,020.20 and then at $2,023.30. First support is seen at today’s low of $2,001.80 and then at this week’s low of $1,996.40. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

March silver futures also saw short covering after prices hit a four-month low Wednesday. The silver bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. A nine-week-old downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart.

Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $23.445. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the October low of $21.17. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $23.15 and then at $23.445. Next support is seen at today’s low of $22.40 and then at $22.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.
 

March N.Y. copper closed up 550 points at 375.50 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. The copper bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. A bearish pennant pattern has formed on the daily bar chart. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 390.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the October low of 355.75 cents. First resistance is seen at 380.00 cents and then at 385.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 370.00 cents and then at last week’s low of 365.50 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

Kitco Media

Jim Wyckoff

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Gold weaker on follow-through selling from Tuesday’s solid losses

Gold weaker on follow-through selling from Tuesday’s solid losses

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Gold weaker on follow-through selling from Tuesday’s solid losses teaser image

Gold prices are down a bit on follow-through selling pressure after solid losses posted Tuesday. Prices hit a three-month low overnight. Silver prices are firmer after hitting a four-month low early on today. April gold was last down $3.20 at $2,004.20. March silver was last up $0.271 at $22.425.

The marketplace Wednesday had mostly digested Tuesday’s U.S. consumer price index report for January that came in at up 3.1%, year-on-year, compared to forecasts for up 2.9% and compares to a rise of 3.4% in the December report. The “core” CPI (excluding food and energy) for January came in at up 3.9%, year-on-year. The U.S. stock indexes sold off sharply, the U.S. dollar index surged, U.S. Treasury yields rose significantly and gold prices posted solid losses. The CPI report all but dashed hopes the Federal Reserve would start to lower interest rates early this spring. The warmer-but-still-not-hot CPI print Tuesday was not that far out of line from market expectations, yet the aforementioned markets showed serious reactions. It’s my bias the CPI report that was a bit warmer than expected was just an excuse for the U.S. stock market to experience a downside correction that was needed anyway, after the major U.S. indexes hit record highs earlier this week. And the U.S. dollar index was already trending up before the CPI news. Bond yields were already creeping up, too. Don’t be surprised to see stock market bulls look at Tuesday’s big pullback as a buying opportunity in existing solid price uptrends for the major indexes.

The next U.S. inflation report comes with Friday’s producer price index report for January, seen coming in at up 0.1% from December, compared to a 0.1% month-on-month decline in the December PPI report.

Asian and European stock markets were mixed in overnight trading. China is celebrating its Lunar New Year holiday this week and many China markets are still closed. U.S. stock index futures are modestly higher at midday.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker after hitting a three-month high Tuesday. Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading around $77.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 4.253%.

Technically, April gold futures prices hit a three-month low early on today. The bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a nine-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the February high of $2,083.20. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the November low of $1,975.10. First resistance is seen at $2,010.00 and then at $2,023.30. First support is seen at today’s low of $1,996.40 and then at $1,985.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

March silver futures prices hit a four-month low early on today. The silver bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. A nine-week-old downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $23.445. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the October low of $21.17. First resistance is seen at $22.75 and then at $23.00. Next support is seen at today’s low of $21.975 and then at $21.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

March N.Y. copper closed down 115 points at 369.95 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The copper bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 390.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the October low of 355.75 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 375.45 cents and then at 380.00 cents. First support is seen at last week’s low of 365.50 cents and then at 362.60 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

Kitco Media

Jim Wyckoff

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Bitcoin Hits 1 Trillion Market Cap For First Time Since December 2021 As BTC Tops 51000

Bitcoin Hits $1 Trillion Market Cap For First Time Since December 2021 As BTC Tops $51,000

By Brenda Ngari – February 14, 2024

After briefly dropping below $50K yesterday, thanks to a hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation report, Bitcoin has bounced back up. The overall market value of Bitcoin’s circulating supply breached $1 trillion today after the BTC price ticked above the $51,000 milestone.

Bitcoin Reclaims Its $1-Trillion Asset Status

 

Bitcoin has touched the $1 trillion market cap for the first time since December 2021.

At press time, BTC costs $51,681, according to data from CoinGecko. It’s gained 6.2% over the last 24 hours and an eye-watering 20.3% since this time last week.

BTC seemed like it was having a sluggish year after the greenlighting of 10 hotly-anticipated spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in mid-January.

The spot market products secured the regulatory nod from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) after a decade of rejections, but the price of Bitcoin slumped. This was because one of the largest fund managers, Grayscale Investments, sold massive amounts of Bitcoin after users wanted to redeem their shares. That selling pressure looks to have subdued in recent days, though, and money is pouring back into the market.

The new spot investment vehicles have now seen over $3 billion worth of net flows — representing a milestone that is not typical within the first four weeks of trading for a newly-listed ETF.

Bitcoin’s notable growth comes as the Crypto Fear and Greed Index had soared to its highest point since late 2021 when Bitcoin attained its current lifetime high of $69,044.77. As per data from Alternative.me, the greed index inched into the “extreme greed” rating of 79 on Feb. 13. Hitting an extreme greed score for the first time in over two years indicates a renewal of optimism among crypto investors. Bitcoin’s market sentiment score now sits at 74.

The top crypto’s concerted attempt to hold its price above the $50,000 zone this year happens as the next Bitcoin halving, a quadrennial event when the reward to miners for securing the Bitcoin blockchain is ha

The original article written by Brenda Ngari and posted on ZyCrypto.com.

Article reposted on Markethive by Jeffrey Sloe

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Tim Moseley

Gold declines sharply as higher-than-expected CPI leads to dollar strength

Gold declines sharply as higher-than-expected CPI leads to dollar strength
 

Gold declines sharply as higher-than-expected CPI leads to dollar strength teaser image

Today the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the consumer price index report for January.

“The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3 percent in January on a seasonally adjusted basis, after rising 0.2 percent in December, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.1 percent before seasonal adjustment”.

The index for shelter increased by 0.6% in January, which contributed the largest spike in inflationary pressures, contributing approximately two-thirds of the monthly all items increase. Food was also troublesome, increasing 0.4% last month. The energy index fell by 0.9% over the month, largely due to a decline in gasoline costs.

The numbers revealed that inflationary pressures last month came in 1/10 of a point more than economists’ expectations. A higher-than-expected rise in inflation last month could easily change the timing of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. More so, it raises a small, but real possibility that the Federal Reserve might raise rates before pivoting to rate cuts. However, for that to happen, inflation would have to come in hotter than expected in February.

Multiple Fed officials, including Chairman Powell have made it clear that they need to see more evidence that inflation is abating before making a final decision on the timing to initiate the Fed’s first rate cut. During his post-FOMC meeting press conference, Chairman Powell was asked if inflation has declined enough to initiate the first rate cut to which he answered, “We will need to see continuing evidence to build confidence that inflation is moving down sustainably toward our goal.”

Powell also remarked that a rate cut in March would be highly unlikely and today’s inflationary numbers reinforce that decision making the most likely first rate cut to possibly occur in May, but more likely in June. According to the CME’s FedWatch tool, there is only an 8.5% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut rates in March, and a 32.3% probability of a rate cut in May. That changes in June with a 52.7% probability that the Fed will have cut rates by ¼%, an 18.9% probability of ½% rate cut, and a 1.3% probability of a ¾% rate cut by the conclusion of the June FOMC meeting.

Following the release of today’s CPI report U.S. Treasury yields rose. The yield on 10-year treasury notes rose by 10 basis points to its current yield of 4.273%. The yield on 30-year bonds rose by seven basis points currently yielding 4.437%.

Higher yields on treasury debt moved the dollar substantially higher. The dollar opened at 104.156 and traded to a high of 105.001, and as of 4:45 PM ET, the dollar index is currently trading at 104.911 after factoring in today’s gain of 0.72%.

Gold sold off sharply based upon bearish market sentiment, resulting in traders actively selling, coupled with dollar strength. Gold futures basis the most active April contract declined by 1.64% taking gold $33.50 lower. While selling pressure resulted in a greater price decline than dollar strength, both were prominent factors in today’s $33 price decline.

Wishing you as always good trading

Kitco Media

Gary Wagner

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

The Artist that came out of the Winter