Tag Archives: price increase

Europe Faces Its Worst Food Crisis In Decades

 

 

The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations, headquarters located in Rome, was established in October 1945 by the United Nations assembly in the wake of World War 2. Its aim is to improve nutrition and living standards, agricultural productivity, and the conditions of farmers and make the best use of the world's food resources. It provides food and nutrition advice, technical assistance, and other support to people in need in both emergency and non-emergency situations.

During a meeting on 8th June 2022, FAO Director-General, Qu Dongyu, participated with dozens of ministers at the summit in Rome to tackle higher prices for food, fertilizer, and fuel. Acknowledging a “very complicated” global scenario, he urged countries in the Mediterranean to work together to mitigate food security risks that the war in Ukraine has further exacerbated. 

The Mediterranean Sea region includes 22 countries on three continents, each with diverse natural resources, agricultural traditions, and production potential. The Ministerial Mediterranean Dialogue on Food Crisis, an event convened by Italy’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Luigi Di Maio, drew ministers and government participants from more than 24 countries.

 

Minister Luigi di Maio opened the Dialogue, noting that seldom has hunger had such a high profile on the public agenda and emphasizing the importance of sustainable agrifood systems.

Qu noted that,

“We must keep our global food trade system open and ensure that agrifood exports are not restricted or taxed.” 

Qu Dongyu outlined four major focal points across which cooperative efforts should be made: 

  1. More investment in countries that are severely affected by the current increase in food prices. 
  2. Reduction of food loss and waste. 
  3. Better and more efficient use of natural resources, especially water and fertilizer. 
  4. A focus on technological and social innovations that can significantly reduce market failures in agriculture.

“We are facing the worst food crisis in decades,” said Svenja Schulze, Germany’s Minister for Economic Cooperation and Development, who co-chaired the event.

Participants agreed that high prices for fertilizers and fuels, both critical agricultural inputs, are urgent matters for global food security.

 

European countries are now looking at options for compensation for individual industries, which have enormously high costs due to energy prices.

Before the war in Ukraine began, the European Union was an exporter of grain, like Ukraine and Russia. Export from Ukraine went mainly to the Middle East and North Africa. But that is likely to change now.

The Arab states now have grain stocks purchased, so prices would not have to go up again in the autumn. So far, the harvest looks good in the rest of Europe, but also in countries such as Australia and Canada.

Rising food prices could stabilize after this year's grain harvest, estimates the Food Chamber of the Czech Republic. According to her, current agricultural prices are speculative, with a good harvest, growth could calm down.

Following this, the prices of feed, flour and meat would no longer have to rise – however, food will not return to last year's values. "An absolutely crucial signal will be how this year's harvest ends, because prices now do not fully reflect reality," said Miroslav Koberna, director of the Chamber of Programming and Strategy of Czech Republic.

 

How Do Food Process Compare Across Europe?

Food prices are skyrocketing across Europe. In some countries, however, it does not burden people's wallets as much as in the Czech Republic. Experts say that this is due to higher incomes and different levels of food taxation.

In the Czech Republic, most foodstuffs are subject to 15% VAT. But some states are more lenient. For example, in Poland, several foods are not subject to VAT. They have a similar situation in Hungary.

For example, according to the so-called Big Mac index, the famous hamburger Big Mac earns the fastest in Luxembourg or Switzerland; it takes them about ten minutes. The longest then on one Big Mac they work in Ukraine, almost an hour. It'll take the Czechs about half an hour. 

 

Czech households spend 17.1% of their income on food, which is close to the European average. A quarter of the senior pension falls on basic foodstuffs in the Czech Republic. Comparing Czech food prices – in Italy are 22% more expensive. Lower prices of foods are in Bulgaria and Poland, about 20-25% more than in Czechia are the food prices in Greece, Austria, Italy or France.

In Czechia, the prices of foods in comparison to last year grow extremely. In May 2022  flour prices  accelerated to 64.6% year on year, for butter to about 52 %, for semi-skimmed long-life milk to about 42% and for eggs to about 34%.

 

        “Yellow prices” are reduced – very often quickly sold out

 

People in Ireland or Scandinavia spend the least on food. On the contrary, they pay the most for them in Romania and the Baltic states. In Germany the average income is about three times more than the Czechia, so of course Germans can afford to buy more food, says one Czech economist.

European countries are currently dealing with compensation options for individual sectors, which have enormously high costs due to energy prices.

 

Germany will pay about 32 million euro, Poland 800 000 euro and France will according to experts be the clear winner in the food industry due to its highest investments in rescuing processors. 

Food Inflation In Europe – The Numbers Say it All

This table shows the percentages of inflation in European countries – highest inflation in food prices has Moldova with 30.2%, second place is Lithuania with 24.8% and so on. Absolutely in the best situation is Switzerland with only 1.1% food inflation.

 

 

 

Source:

Ceskenoviny.cz

Idnes.cz

Fao.org

tradingeconomics.com

 

 

 

Tim Moseley

World Bank outlook for 3 years

World Bank outlook for 3 years

From Wiki:

The World Bank (WB) is an association of two specialized United Nations (UN) organizations that provide financial and technical assistance to developing countries to reduce poverty and improve living conditions around the world.

Already more than two years ago WB warned that the number of people in poverty could increase by as much as 11 million.
It was supposed the financial shock caused by the pandemic will also have serious effects on poverty, which is defined as an income of less than $ 5.5  per day. The World Bank initially expected the region to lift almost 35 million people out of poverty this year, including more than 25 million in China. 
Five years ago in 2017 there was much more optimism, the overall economical growth was supposed 2,9%. In june 2020 the optimism was away: " World Bank announced: World economy down 5.2% this year due to coronavirus"

In April 2022 the World Bank, based in Washington, has lowered its global growth forecast for 2022 from 4.1% to 3.2%. He points to several problems that have a negative impact on the global economic situation. In addition to the aforementioned inflation and war in Ukraine, the World Bank also sees problems in the progressive isolation of the Chinese market from global trade and the creation of the "Eastern Economic Pact" between China and Russia.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF), part of the World Bank, has cut the UK's economic growth outlook from 4.7% to 3.7%. The global growth forecast was also reduced from 6.1% to 3.6%. The IMF sees the main problem as an inefficient approach to raising interest rates, which on the one hand may slow inflation, but on the other hand will slow down economic growth even more.

NEW WARNINGS
The war in Ukraine will cause high food and energy prices, which will last three years, the World Bank warned on Tuesday last week. Her statement raises fears that the situation will return during the oil crisis in the mid-1970s, when economic growth was weak and inflation was high at the same time.
According to the World Bank's dark outlook, persistently high commodity prices lasting until the end of 2024 could lead to so-called stagflation, a dangerous combination of high inflation coupled with meager economic growth.

This year, the bank expects energy prices to rise by 50 percent, with the price of North Sea Brent crude being around $ 100 a barrel, the highest since 2013. Compared to 2021, it has risen by 40 percent. In 2023, Brent oil prices are expected to fall to $ 92 a barrel, but that is still more than the five-year average of $ 60.

According to the World Bank, the price of gas will double this year compared to 2021, and the price of coal will be 80 percent higher.

The price of wheat will rise by more than 40 percent this year, which will have a severe impact on developing countries that are dependent on grain exports from Ukraine and Russia.
The World Bank's economic outlook for commodities shows that energy prices have risen the most in the last two years since the oil crisis erupted in 1973. Fertilizer prices have risen the most since 2008. Although the bank says energy and other commodity prices will fall from current highs, they are expected to remain above the current average. They will be above average until the end of 2024, including the previous two years, ie a total of five years.

The question remains to what extent these predictions are reliable. Many experts are more pessimistic and the development of some prices in the first months of this year is alarming.

We can only hope that there will be no significant deterioration and that we will recover from this situation strengthened.

                         Thanks for reading

                                                                     Margaret

Tim Moseley