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Gold’s bull market is just beginning as European fund managers take a bigger stake – HANetf

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Gold's bull market is just beginning as European fund managers take a bigger stake – HANetf

The gold market has started 2023 on solid footing and one European-based fund sees strong potential as investors take a renewed interest in the precious metal.

In November, analysts at HANetf surveyed 100 European and British wealth fund managers, and according to the results, 89% of respondents said that they intend to increase their exposure to gold in 2023.

According to the survey, wealth fund managers see central bank demand for gold as a major bullish factor for the precious metal. According to data from the World Gold Council, last year, as of the end of the third quarter, central banks bought 673 tonnes of gold, the most accumulated in a single year since 1967.

The survey shows that 83% of managers expect central banks to continue buying gold in the new year.

Along with central bank demand, wealth fund managers said that gold remains an attractive inflation hedge and a protection against further equity market volatility and risk.

When the survey was conducted, gold prices were trading near a two-year low and according to the survey, fund managers said those prices represented an attractive long-term entry point.

"It now may be the case that a lot of the negative sentiment towards gold has passed," said Tom Bailey, head of ETF research at HANetf, in the report. "Many analysts now see the Federal Reserve slowing rate hikes, while the dollar's strength now seems potentially in retreat. That should provide some relief for gold prices and potentially result in a pick-up in investment demand.

Last month Eric Strand, portfolio manager and creator of the European-listed AuAG ESG Gold Mining exchange-traded fund (LSE: ESGO), said that gold could be on the cusp of a new bull market.

 With gold ending the week above $1,900, analysts turn their focus to $2,000

Strand said that he sees gold prices gaining 20% in 2023.

Along with gold, Strand expects the precious metal mining sector, which has underperformed compared to the commodity, will attract new momentum in the new year.

"Gold miners are today historically cheap relative to gold, something that will revert and overshoot in the coming secular bull market," he said. "Gold miners have a very low correlation with the broad stock market and are becoming more interesting for larger investors looking for possible/alternative return drivers and that may result in strong capital flows, which will then take equity prices higher."

Along with the AuAG ESG Gold Mining exchange-traded fund, HANetf also manages a second environmental and social governance (ESG)-focused fund: The Royal Mint Responsibly Sourced Physical Gold ETC (LSE: RMAU). Last year RMAU saw growth of 130%, bucking the global downtrend in the ETF market.

According to the survey, wealth managers see a potential premium for ESG-focused funds, with 36% of fund managers expecting a dramatic increase in transfers to gold funds with strong ESG credentials while 54% of respondents see a slight increase in switching.

By Neils Christensen

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

  

Strand said that he sees gold prices gaining 20% in 2023.

Along with gold, Strand expects the precious metal mining sector, which has underperformed compared to the commodity, will attract new momentum in the new year.

"Gold miners are today historically cheap relative to gold, something that will revert and overshoot in the coming secular bull market," he said. "Gold miners have a very low correlation with the broad stock market and are becoming more interesting for larger investors looking for possible/alternative return drivers and that may result in strong capital flows, which will then take equity prices higher."

Along with the AuAG ESG Gold Mining exchange-traded fund, HANetf also manages a second environmental and social governance (ESG)-focused fund: The Royal Mint Responsibly Sourced Physical Gold ETC (LSE: RMAU). Last year RMAU saw growth of 130%, bucking the global downtrend in the ETF market.

According to the survey, wealth managers see a potential premium for ESG-focused funds, with 36% of fund managers expecting a dramatic increase in transfers to gold funds with strong ESG credentials while 54% of respondents see a slight increase in switching.

By Neils Christensen

For Kitco News

Tim Moseley

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With gold ending the week above 1900 analysts turn their focus to 2000

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With gold ending the week above $1,900, analysts turn their focus to $2,000

Welcome to Kitco News' 2023 Outlook Series. Uncertainty continues to dominate financial markets as central bank monetary policies push the global economy into a recession to cool down inflation. Stay tuned to Kitco News to learn from the experts on how to navigate turbulent financial markets in 2023.

The gold market is ending the week at a nine-month high as renewed safe-haven demand pushed prices above $1,920 an ounce, which some analysts highlighted as an important resistance level.

Analysts have said that rising economic uncertainty and shifting market fundamentals could help push prices back to $2,000 sooner than expected.

February gold futures are looking to close the week with roughly 1% gain, with prices last trading at $1,922.80 an ounce.

"There is a gravitational pull to $2,000 and it will only build as prices continue to move higher," said Phillip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures.

Gold's late afternoon rally came after U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen sent a letter to Congress warning lawmakers that the government could hit its debt limit on Jan. 19.

picGrowing fears that the U.S. could potentially default on its debt obligations have increased recently as the Republican Party's slim majority in the U.S. House of Representatives is expected to complicate negotiations. Some Republican politicians have already said that any rise in the debt limit needs to be accompanied by deep spending cuts.

"We knew the debt issue was going to be a problem in 2023, but we weren't expecting it to rise to prominence so soon," said Edward Moya, senior North American market analyst at OANDA. "The short-term reaction in gold is warranted, giving how much uncertainty there currently is."

However, Moya added that while near-term safe-haven demand should continue to support gold prices, there are much bigger factors impacting the gold market.

"It's just too early to see how this will play out. In the short-term, it's positive for gold, but if there is any major chaos, that would support the dollar and weigh on gold," he said.

Moya said that for gold, he sees some resistance at $1,950 an ounce, and if that breaks, there is not much to stop the market from rallying back to $2,000 an ounce.

"There is lots of momentum in the market right now and I think $2,000 is a target is just a question of when we get there," he said.

This is why you will see high premiums on American Eagle silver coins in 2023

Federal Reserve's monetary policy remains the critical driver for gold

Looking past the near-term volatility, analysts have said that the most significant influence on gold remains shifting expectations regarding the Federal Reserve and the impact easing inflation is having on bond yields and the U.S. dollar.

Consumer inflation data this past week showed that price pressures are cooling in line with expectations, which some analysts have said gives the Federal Reserve room to slow the pace of its aggressive monetary policy stance.

According to the CME's FedWatch Tool, markets see a more than 90% chance that the U.S. central bank will raise the Fed Funds rate by 25 basis points next month.

Investors anticipating that the Federal Reserve is closer to the end of its tightening cycle have pushed bond yields lower and weighed heavily on the U.S. dollar.

The U.S. dollar index is looking to end the week at its lowest level in seven months as it tests support at 102 points.

Kevin Grady, president of Phoenix Futures and Options, said that investors are seeing a fundamental change in financial markets, supporting gold prices, even if market momentum looks technically overstretched.

"I have been waiting for a fundamental change in the marketplace and I think we are starting to see that," Grady said. "The bond market is signaling that interest rates will be lower than what the Fed is saying and that is bullish for gold."

Pay attention to the U.S. dollar; it looks oversold

Although gold prices have room to move higher next week, some analysts have said that investors should use some caution at these levels and not chase the market.

While many analysts are solidly bullish on gold in the near term, they have said that investors should look to buy the precious metal on dips.

Darin Newsom, senior market analyst at Barchart, said that he sees higher gold prices as both the short-term and medium-term trends are decidedly up.

However, he added that bullish investors might have to be agile as gold could rapidly correct. He said that the key to gold's short-term momentum will be the U.S. dollar, which he said is sharply oversold. He noted that 102.17 is an important retracement level from last year's historic rally.

"When [gold] decides to turn, and it could be some point next week, it could fall fast," he said. "Markets take the stairs up and the elevator down."

Marc Chandler, managing director at Bannockburn Global Forex, said he also sees the U.S. dollar as oversold. He noted that although inflation is cooling, the Federal Reserve is still expected to raise interest rates, which could help stall the greenback's downward momentum.

Davos and economic data to watch

Although the U.S. will see a shortened trading week with markets closed Monday for Martin Luther King Jr. Day, there will be plenty of economic data to digest throughout the week.

Analysts have said the market could be sensitive to comments made during the annual World Economic Forum, which kicks off in Davos next week. The WEF has already raised concerns about rising geopolitical uncertainty and the continuous threat of inflation. Analysts have said that any grim outlook could further boost gold's safe-haven appeal.

The markets will also receive more retail sales numbers, inflation data and regional manufacturing numbers from the New York Federal Reserve and the Philadelphia Federal Reserve.

Economists have also said that investors need to keep an eye on the Bank of Japan's monetary policy decision as that could provide some bullish momentum for the U.S. dollar, which in turn would weigh on gold.

Tuesday: Empire State manufacturing index, Bank of Japan monetary policy decision

Wednesday: PPI, Retail sales

Thursday: Philly Fed Survey, weekly jobless claims, housing starts and building permits

Friday: Existing home sales

By Neils Christensen

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

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Gold silver kick off 2023 in style

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Gold, silver kick off 2023 in style

After a well-earned break, we are back in action… and what a time to be covering precious metals! Gold and silver are starting the year off on the front foot, with gold ending the first full trading week of the year at a nine-month high above $1,920 an ounce and silver prices solidly back above $24 an ounce

Gold prices are actually up nearly 5% since the start of the year, and while the year has only just started, the bullish sentiment in the marketplace is almost palpable. We have only just broken above $1,900 an ounce, but some investors and analysts have already set their sights on the $2,000 target.

Some heavyweight market players are jumping on the gold bandwagon as prices have risen $300 from November's two-year lows.

In an exclusive interview with Kitco News' Michelle Makori, Nouriel Roubini, CEO of Roubini Macro Associates and Professor Emeritus at NYU Stern School of Business, said that investors will flock to gold as 10 "megathreats" threaten the global economy.

Roubini said that he sees gold prices rising to $3000 an ounce by 2028.

"Over the next few years, I would expect that gold could have high single-digits into low double-digits rates of return," said the renowned economist, also known as "Dr. Doom," in the interview. "I expect… rates of return around 10 percent per year over the next five years."

Along with Roubini, billionaire "bond king" Jeffrey Gundlach said he turned bullish on gold when prices pushed above $1,800 an ounce.

In a webcast Tuesday, the Doubleline CEO said that gold was one of his recommendations for 2023. "It's a reasonably good time to buy gold and own gold," Gundlach said.

Many investors stayed away from gold in 2022 as the Federal Reserve's aggressive monetary policy stance pushed bond yields to a 12-year high and the U.S. dollar to a 20-year high; however, analysts have said that that trend could be reversing in 2023 as the Federal Reserve is nearing the end of its tightening cycle.

Analysts have noted that U.S. bond yields are pricing in a terminal Fed Funds rate below 5%, which in turn has caused the U.S. dollar to fall to a seven-month low this week.

Many analysts have said that both bond yields and the U.S. dollar have peaked, supporting gold's rally.

But gold is more than just the sum of investment demand. Global geopolitical uncertainty continues to support the precious metal as a critical element in global currency markets.

This week, the People's Bank of China announced that it bought 30 tonnes of gold in December. This follows November's purchase of 32 tonnes of gold, the first officially-recorded purchase since September 2019.

BNP Paribas market analyst Chi Lo said in a recent report that gold will be a crucial element in China's plan to strengthen the yuan's international credibility and challenge the U.S. dollar's status as the world's reserve currency.

"Making the renminbi convertible into gold effectively turns the currency into a global investable asset for foreign renminbi owners, boosting their confidence in and demand for the Chinese currency," Lo said in his report. "A gold-backed petro-yuan does not require full renminbi convertibility to function, so it allows China to simultaneously retain control of its capital account and boost the internationalization of the renminbi."

By Neils Christensen

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

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Traders bid stocks gold and Silver higher but is the optimism warranted?

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Traders bid stocks, gold, and Silver higher, but is the optimism warranted?

Market participants continue to react to the bullish market sentiment created by yesterday's CPI report. Inflation came in at 6.5% year-over-year last month, which is the sixth consecutive month that inflation has diminished since the peak of 9.1% in June.

Accoring to the BLS, "The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) declined 0.1 percent in December on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.1 percent in November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 6.5 percent before seasonal adjustment."

According to the report gasoline, "was by far the largest contributor to the monthly all items decrease, more than offsetting increases in shelter indexes. The food index increased 0.3 percent over the month with the food at home index rising 0.2 percent. The energy index decreased 4.5 percent over the month as the gasoline index declined; other major energy component indexes increased over the month."

The CPI core inflation (which strips out food and energy costs) climbed 5.7% year-over-year and is an increase of 0.3% when compared to the prior month. While inflationary pressures have diminished the core CPI is still roughly triple the Federal Reserve's target rate of 2%.

That being said, the optimism caused investors to be active buyers of US equities, gold, and silver. However, they were not basing market sentiment upon recent statements by Fed. The caveat is that the Federal Reserve has on multiple occasions reinforced its unwavering resolve to keep interest rates elevated throughout 2023.

Many analysts believe that the Fed is bluffing because current rates are not sustainable for the entire year. Others believe that their vow to be transparent simply no longer exists.

US equities, gold, and silver benefited from that sentiment resulting in strong rallies in both gold and silver, as well as moderate gains in the major stock indices. The Dow gained 0.33%, the S&P 500 gained 0.40%, and the NASDAQ composite gained 0.70%.

As of 5:42 PM EST February gold futures are up $24.20 and fixed at $1923. March silver futures gained $0.41 or 1.71% and are fixed at $24.415

As I spoke about yesterday, I continue to believe that if the Fed stays the course it could lead to one of the greatest errors by the Fed in recent history. The days of the Fed being data-dependent seem only to matter when the data confirms their assumptions.

By Gary Wagner

Contributing to kitco.com

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

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The Fed’s use of data-dependent decisions can’t be applicable only when it supports their beliefs

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The Fed's use of data-dependent decisions can't be applicable only when it supports their beliefs

Considering that as recently as June we had the highest level of inflation recorded in the last 40 years today’s CPI report from December was a welcome change as inflation continues to slowly dissipate. Just six months ago overall inflation peaked at an alarming 9.1%. The historical rise in inflation was a long process after coming in at 0.329% in April and 0.118% in May 2020.

Initially, inflation was slow to rise with inflation concluding in December 2020 at 0.812. It was January 2020 that had the highest monthly level of inflation of 2.487%. Still the average level of inflation that year was 1.234%. An action by the Federal Reserve was logical in that inflation was running substantially below its 2% target.

In 2021 inflation concluded with an annual average of inflation at 4.698%. In March of that year, inflation had breached the 2% target set by the Federal Reserve by 0.62% and began to steadily climb higher with almost each following consecutive month coming in hotter than the previous month. Inflation rose past 4% in April, close to 5% in May, and finished the year at an alarming level of 7.036%.

Yet the Federal Reserve did nothing maintaining the belief that the recent jump in inflation was transitory and as such would dissipate without any influence by the Federal Reserve. It was this incorrect assumption that resulted in a level of inflation add speak that had not been witnessed in 40 years. In January 2022 levels of inflation continue to elevate higher beginning at 7.48% in January and peeking just above 9% in June. Still, the Federal Reserve continued to falsely believe that a 40-year high and inflation would dissipate on its own. One of the greatest errors by the Federal Reserve in recent history in both their forward guidance and projections that resulted in the most inappropriate action possible is to do nothing as inflation continues to spiral.

I believe that the Federal Reserve is once again creating one of the greatest errors by the Federal Reserve in recent history. It wasn’t that long ago that the Federal Reserve when asked about their forward guidance would quickly refer to their goto response: our actions will be data dependent and determine our forward guidance to shape our decisions in regards to our monetary policy.

Since June when inflationary pressures peaked at 9.1% we have seen inflationary levels have a methodically consistent and consecutive decline reducing inflation by approximately one-third. While we still have a ways to go to reach the fed’s 2% target, it is evident that the recent action of the Federal Reserve has accomplished its intent and effectively lowered inflation. However, it has been an overwhelming consensus by Federal Reserve members that they will continue to keep interest rates elevated and possibly even implement another rate hike to reach their goal of just over 5.

Will the FED make a blunder by not following the data

Will the FED make a blunder by not following the data which reveals its time to slowly reduce rates? It seems obvious to this author that the Federal Reserve did not learn anything from its incredible mistake of waiting too long to raise rates because of its false narrative that inflation was temporary, not persistent. Now they are making another tremendous mistake disregarding the data as they used to believe that the best forward guidance they can offer is to maintain elevated rates when what is needed is rate stabilization and reduction during 2023. Members of the Federal Reserve are assumed to be experts in their field and to disregard the data is a tremendous blunder in judgment.

The doctrine of being data-dependent when it fits assumptions right or wrong and abandoning that technique when they’re convinced again that they are right is a mistake. Members of the Federal Reserve should know better.

By Gary Wagner

Contributing to kitco.com

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

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2023 Predictions For The Crypto Industry Is The Tide Turning?

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2023 Predictions For The Crypto Industry. Is The Tide Turning?

Across the board, 2022 was a crazy year and devastating for most. In terms of the crypto market, it was arguably the most unsettling year since its inception. A series of unprecedented events, like prominent altcoins plummeting to almost zero, companies going bankrupt, and $billions being hacked, are just a few. 

So what’s in store for 2023? Will it be bullish or bearish for the crypto market? Although many pundits postulate the coming year in crypto, I have outlined ten predictions from a reputable source, Guy, the investigative presenter at Coinbureau.com, which explains why they're likely to occur and how they could affect the crypto market. I offer my 2 cents worth also.
  
#1. Crypto Market Begins To Recover

The first prediction tends to be positive, with Guy suggesting the crypto market will improve, albeit not a bull market as we know it. The worst of the bear market will be behind us by the end of this year. The primary reason the crypto bear market could bottom in Q1 is that the Federal Reserve is expected to stop raising interest rates. Notably, stopping interest rates is not the same as lowering them, but it will likely be enough to prevent crypto from crashing further. 
   
Likewise, the bottom for BTC will likely come in the first quarter and could be 10K or slightly lower, with the main reason being that the stock market has yet to find its bottom, and the crypto market is highly correlated to the stock market. The stock market is expected to drop by another 20 to 30%, translating to a 40 to 60% drop in BTC's price. 

It’s important to point out that BTC could flash crash lower than 10K due to a crypto-specific factor such as a Bitcoin mining ban due to energy shortages. Also, Mount Gox creditors could sell the BTC they were due to receive in Q1; however, more recent news states the Mt. Gox payouts have been postponed till September. 

#2. SEC Crack Down Seems Likely

The second crypto prediction for 2023 is that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will crack down on another big crypto project or company. The presenter opines that another crackdown seems highly likely if Gary Gensler continues to be the chairman of the SEC. Gary's term will expire in 2026, so there's a lot of time for him to do damage, assuming he won't be expelled from the SEC for his close encounters with Sam Bankman Fried and FTX.

The criteria the SEC has been using to crack down on cryptocurrency have yet to be made clear. These opaque criteria can be summed up as a subjective interpretation of the fourth part of the Howey test. For context, the Howey test is used to assess whether an asset is a security, such as a stock in a company that requires additional regulation from the SEC. 


Image source: NickGrossman.xyz

The fourth part of the Howey test is the most relevant to crypto if an asset can identify a third party creating an expectation of profit for a coin or token” Gary Gensler has made it clear that no cryptocurrency is safe aside from BTC. He's even targeted stablecoins, which makes no sense. This could mean that every cryptocurrency besides BTC on an exchange is a potential target, particularly POS cryptos. 

However, the former director of the SEC’s Division of Corporation Finance, William Hinman, said cryptocurrencies must be "sufficiently decentralized" not to be deemed securities. Coin Center does not believe that the technological differences between POS and POW warrant any different treatment. And that it’s a misconception of policymakers that “staking” and “staking rewards” is some kind of security or interest-bearing lending activity that should be subject to regulation.

It will be interesting to see if Gary Gensler gets his way and if so, a first-quarter crackdown could be a catalyst for crypto lows. 

#3. Good And Bad Crypto Regulations 

Guy’s third prediction for 2023 is that there will be many crypto regulations, which suggests that most of these regulations will be good; however, a few will not. It’s also very likely that crypto regulations will vary from region to region, despite attempts to create global crypto rules. The European Union's Markets In Crypto Assets (MiCA) finalized its laws to be released in early 2023. Although they won't be coming into force for another one to two years after that, they will give institutional investors regulatory clarity for crypto. 

The absence of regulatory clarity is why institutions have been hesitant to invest in crypto, especially altcoins. Establishing regulatory clarity in the EU and elsewhere could result in lots of inflows and contribute to a Q1 recovery for crypto. More importantly, crypto regulations will effectively force crypto projects to decentralize. This is because the only way to avoid many of these regulations will be to be decentralized from top to bottom. 

Some crypto regulations are likely to be adverse concerning payments, DeFi, and privacy. That's because all of these niches are a threat to the traditional financial system. Fortunately, the crypto industry is likely to grow significantly with sound regulations. Furthermore, an increase in adoption and capital will likely make it possible for the crypto industry to lobby to remove the harmful rules. Keep in mind that powerful individuals and institutions want privacy the most. 

#4. DeFi To Go Mainstream

The fourth crypto prediction is that DeFi will go mainstream due to better front-ends, regulatory clarity resulting in increased liquidity, and proof of resiliency from some DeFi protocols. This will increase trust in DeFi and decrease confidence in centralized entities in the crypto industry. Guy also states that the caveat is that harmful crypto regulations could slow the adoption of DeFi. So far, however, DeFi has yet to be included in most crypto regulations providing the protocols are genuinely decentralized. 

Thankfully, most of the most significant DeFi protocols are, in fact, indeed decentralized, notably those on Ethereum. Most of the prominent DeFi protocols on Ethereum have also been tested by institutions in permissioned environments, namely Aave. It’s interesting to note that DeFi is technically a direct competitor to the traditional financial system, as it makes it possible to trade, borrow, lend and save. 

Guy expresses that institutional adoption of DeFi is inevitable because many institutions have acknowledged that the advent of new technologies, such as blockchain, means there will be a race to the bottom regarding transaction fees and settlement times. 

#5. Crypto Payments More Common

The fifth crypto prediction for 2023 relates to the third, and that's that crypto payments will become more common. This will again be due to a combination of better front-ends, regulatory clarity, increasing liquidity, and, most importantly, an increase in scalability that finally makes crypto payments feasible. Guy notes that his prediction comes from headlines about Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin saying how Layer-2 scaling on Ethereum will power crypto payments. 

Moreover, developers will reportedly implement Ethereum Improvement Proposal (EIP #4844) in March 2023. For those unfamiliar, EIP 4844 will increase the scalability of Layer 2s on Ethereum by between 10 and 100x. Given that most Layer 2s already process thousands of TPS, such an increase will put them on par with Visa. The author believes it’s very likely that Layer 2s on Ethereum will be ground zero for crypto payments once EIP 4844 is implemented. 

He also stipulated that other smart contract cryptocurrencies will play a role, but they'll likely have to find their own niches. The catch is that increasing crypto payments could lead to more regulatory scrutiny. His greatest fear is that regulators will eventually require you to complete KYC if you want to use stablecoins on a smart contract cryptocurrency like Ethereum, quoting, 

“This has been mentioned by a few regulators already. The scariest part about this possibility is that it would be easy to implement since the larger stablecoins are centrally controlled. 

The silver lining is that a KYC crackdown on payments would drive innovation in the decentralized stablecoin niche. And some DeFi protocols are ahead of the curve. So to speak.”

 


Image source: cryptoslate.com

#6. Crypto Holders To Increase 

Guy’s sixth crypto prediction for 2023 is the number of crypto holders will increase significantly. For context, crypto adoption currently stands at around 4% of the global population. It doesn’t sound like much, but the growth has been exponential, and there are many reasons why this trend will continue this year. 

A significant reason is that media platforms have been integrating crypto features, such as  Meta’s Facebook and Instagram, which have tested NFTs on multiple smart contract cryptocurrencies. Even Starbucks has been working on NFT loyalty and member programs on Polygon. Notably, free speech-focused social media platforms, like Telegram and Signal, have been integrating crypto features with TON coin and MobileCoin, respectively. 

Markethive has taken privacy, free speech, and sovereignty on one decentralized platform to a new level involving social media and inbound marketing, including email broadcasting, content creation, press releases, sponsored articles, and page-making systems. Also, a video channel and conference room facilities make it a complete entrepreneurial ecosystem underpinned by blockchain technology and its native currency, Hivecoin. 

All these companies have billions of users combined. Even just a tiny percentage of crypto adoption by their users would be significant. There are three reasons why people adopt crypto; 

  1. Speculation, in other words, profit.
  2. Out of necessity. 
  3. Just for fun. 

Given the current sideways climate, there isn't going to be too much speculative adoption in 2023. This leaves “out of necessity” and “just for fun.” While much of the crypto adoption this year will potentially be driven by “just for fun” factors such as those mentioned above with social media, there could be a surge in necessity-related crypto adoption. Many countries are on the brink of collapse due to economic, social, and political issues. 

We've already seen a few of them fall, such as in Sri Lanka. Cash and crypto will be the only options when financial systems fail, especially as foreign currencies fall against the US dollar. 

Hence, an ecosystem like Markethive catering to a cottage industry of entrepreneurs, business owners, and the rank and file worldwide needs a sovereign base to facilitate their operations with the opportunity to be involved in a crypto monetary system that pays the user. Markethive enables everyone to realize their potential regardless of what is happening.

#7. More Countries To Adopt BTC As A Legal Tender

The seventh crypto prediction ties into the fifth: at least one additional country will adopt BTC as legal tender. Tonga is top of the list since the island nation announced it would make BTC legal tender by Q2 and begin mining BTC with volcanoes by Q3 of 2023. The assertions for this move are a need for more financial infrastructure, reliance on remittance payments, and using a foreign currency whose monetary policy cannot be controlled, such as the US dollar. 

These are the same reasons El Salvador adopted BTC as legal tender in September 2021.  It's also why some Latin American countries are the most likely to follow suit. It's even why the Central African Republic adopted BTC as a legal currency in April 2022 and uses it alongside the Central African CFA Franc.

The countries adopting BTC as legal tender doesn't mean they will ditch their national currencies. It's more than likely they'll continue to use their national currencies alongside BTC, assuming there isn't a total collapse of the financial system. It's also possible that some countries will adopt cryptocurrency alongside a new central bank digital currency (CBDC). This seems unlikely, given that crypto and digital currencies are a blatant contradiction, but it has been hinted at in various reports, including one from Harvard University.

#8. Big Tech Companies Ramp Up Crypto Integrations

Guy’s eighth crypto prediction for 2023 ties into the previous two, and that's that big tech companies will continue to announce crypto Integrations. Like the countries that could espouse BTC, big tech giants are ultimately adopting crypto because they're losing money and are trying to find ways to plug the hole. 

Tech giants such as Apple and Amazon have been seeking to hire people for crypto-related positions over the last couple of years. Although there haven’t been any meaningful developments from them or the other big tech companies with similar job openings as yet, those could all come sometime this year. 

Although Twitter’s new owner Elon Musk is currently balancing free speech and censorship in the face of government scrutiny, he has clarified that he intends to integrate crypto features on the platform. It’s becoming clear that this is the direction big tech is moving. The crypto or NFT adoption by Facebook, Instagram, et al. mentioned above will almost certainly inspire the rest of big tech to do the same. 

He also posits that big tech adoption of crypto could be related to the Metaverse because very few are fans of the centralized Metaverse that Meta has created. They know that they're nothing more than a means of extracting even more data to be sold to advertisers and shared with governments obsessed with surveillance and censorship. 

Meta and others will eventually understand that the only way they can make money on this new technology is to integrate it with existing decentralized alternatives. Big tech’s role will likely involve providing hardware and access points that enhance user experience. 

#9. Wall Street To Acquire Blue Chip Crypto Company

The ninth crypto prediction is that the wolves on Wall Street will acquire at least one blue chip crypto company. Guy speculates this is highly likely given that Goldman Sachs and others are interested in buying up a few subsidiaries of FTX that remain solvent. Moreover, other crypto exchanges and platforms have gone bankrupt over the last year. Celsius, BlockFi, and Voyager Digital are easy examples, and some of their business assets may be acquired by a traditional financial institution looking to offer crypto services.

There's even speculation that a megabank could acquire Coinbase like JP Morgan, because the potential collapse of troubled crypto companies in the United States, like Digital Currency Group, Greyscale, and Genesis Trading, could have knock-on effects on Coinbase. Coinbase is also involved with USDC issuer Circle, which posted a surprisingly small profit in Q3 last year.  

If Coinbase stock goes low enough, there's a scenario wherein a takeover of some kind could occur. After all, Coinbase is the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the US, and the big banks on Wall Street have been watching billions of dollars flow from their accounts onto the exchange over the last two years. They've also seen how much money Coinbase can make and probably how much data it can gather. 

 


Image source: Forbes

#10. BTC To Be Used For International Trade

The tenth crypto prediction for 2023 is that BTC will start being used for international trade. Some countries have signaled their interest in using BTC for international trade, including those that face sanctions or scrutiny from the United States and its allies. The sanctioned list was once limited to a few so-called rogue actors, but it's quickly expanding as we enter a multipolar world. 

At one pole, we have the United States and its allies; at the other, we have the BRICS, Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, plus their allies. As mentioned in this article, the BRICS are reportedly working on their reserve currency, a combination of their existing currencies. 

Iran has already officially approved the use of cryptocurrency for international trade, and Saudi Arabia has a renewed interest in crypto as its central bank has hired a crypto chief to boost digital ambitions. Hong Kong will also ease restrictions, and Russia appears to be working on crypto legislation. This apparent crypto adoption by the BRICS could see them add BTC to their reserve currency basket.

Once it becomes clear that BTC is a viable option, it won’t be just the so-called naughty or sanctioned nations adopting it. When that tipping point occurs, we'll see what Fidelity has called Bitcoin, a “very high stakes game theory” where countries will rapidly adopt BTC. 

My Thoughts

All things considered, as I am a "glass half full" kinda gal, this year could see a positive turn for crypto on various levels. Given the turmoil and backlash crypto has received for over a decade. All the predicaments the crypto industry has found itself in have inspired new technology to mitigate the bugs and growth in maturity. 

It takes decades of trial and error to implement a robust and sound financial system, and all it takes is a couple of years of onerous or corrupt leadership to bring the global economy to its knees. Although the crypto market is currently deemed low, compared to the historical highs, we see a more stabilized price action, and BTC and authentic altcoins will be considered less volatile going forward.  

In other words, crypto can and will be used as intended, not for speculation but as a comprehensive cross-border payment system and a store of value inherently deflationary given its limited money supply. It will find an equilibrium and be decentralized enough to withstand the failing traditional finance systems with its inflationary fiat currency. 

 

 

 

Editor and Chief Markethive: Deb Williams. (Australia) I thrive on progress and champion freedom of speech. I embrace "Change" with a passion, and my purpose in life is to enlighten people to accept and move forward with enthusiasm. Find me at my Markethive Profile Page | My Twitter Account | and my LinkedIn Profile.
 

 

 

 

Tim Moseley

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Market participants pause as they wait for tomorrow’s inflation report

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Market participants pause as they wait for tomorrow's inflation report

It is a given that the potential for inflation to decline in the December report. The assumption that inflation continues to diminish and has for the most part been factored into market pricing. Tomorrow's Consumer Price Index will occur after the strong and hawkish speech by Chairman Powell delivered yesterday at a central bank conference in Sweden.

Powell's speech did not contain new insights or flexibility that was not already addressed. It did serve to reinforce the steadfast commitment that has only strengthened over the last few months. One nuanced topic he has avoided until yesterday was that the Fed must make unpopular decisions to stabilize prices. While the words, for the most part, were different, the message continues to be the same, "The Fed is committed to maintaining interest rates at an elevated level." This idea is etched in stone.

One topic that has been absent until yesterday was that the pressure from politicians will not influence Fed policy. During his speech Chairman Powell said, "The absence of direct political control over our decisions allows us to take these necessary measures without considering short-term political factors".

There has been no change by the Federal Reserve to deviate from its current objective which is to take its benchmark rate to just above 5% and maintain an elevated level throughout the entire year.

This means that regardless of how much headway has occurred between November and December and how deeply inflation has been diminished it seems highly unlikely that it will influence the Federal Reserve to let up on its aggressive monetary policy and rate hikes. The Fed is so overwhelmingly focused on not letting inflation become more entrenched in the economy that it seems that they are not seeing the forest from the trees.

Inflation continues to be extremely persistent with certain sectors that cannot be influenced by the actions of the Federal Reserve. Two of the key troublesome sectors are food and energy, the costs of which are continuing to be persistently higher. The Federal Reserve has no tools or effective means to implement a strategy that would lead to any meaningful price reduction in these two areas which happen to represent a huge portion of the average American's expenditures.

Recently the Federal Reserve Bank of New York forecasted that inflation for December will show it continues to diminish. Expectations are that the CPI will show inflation is easing at approximately 6.5% year-over-year. While many analysts believe that if the actual numbers come in below this forecast it will influence the Federal Reserve to backpedal its stringent commitment to keep interest rate levels elevated throughout the entire year.

If that is true tomorrow's report could have little real impact based on the belief that it will not have any dramatic influence on the current policy. In other words, tomorrow's CPI report will not have an overwhelming impact on future decisions of Federal Reserve members which beckons the question, why are investors so focused upon tomorrow's numbers?

By Gary Wagner

Contributing to kitco.com

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

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Why is a scammer so brilliant in creating fake profiles and websites but be stupid not to know English composition?

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Why is a scammer so brilliant in creating fake profiles and websites but be stupid not to know English composition?

SCAMMER

Introduction

The world of online dating is fraught with scams. Scammers are good at what they do and will play on your vulnerabilities, loneliness, desperation and hope. They want your money!

Why do scammers create fake profiles and websites but be stupid not to know English composition especially when they are asking for money?

In order to understand why a scammer is so brilliant with creating fake profiles and websites while being stupid not to know English composition, you need to understand why they are doing that.

There are two reasons:

  • They want your money. If they can fool you into giving them your money without any struggle, they will do it! That's why they create fake profiles and websites. They know the only way to get their hands on your cash is by deceiving you into handing it over yourself—and that's what these scammers excel at doing!

  • Scammers are usually from outside the country where their victims live (in this case America). For example, if someone from Africa wants to scam someone in America who speaks English as his/her primary language (like me), then he must first learn how Americans speak English before he can even begin talking about scams with them or ask for money from them through his fake profile/website because no American would agree with someone who does not speak well enough English for his own good.

How can you tell if its a scammer or not?

In order to avoid scams, you should know the signs of a scammer. The most important thing is that they will never tell you their real name or where they live. They will also not tell you what they do for a living, who their family members are and where they work (if at all). In addition, scammers tend to use fake email addresses and phone numbers. If someone is asking for money from you over email or social media, then it's probably not legitimate.

We need to be careful in giving as well as receiving our hard earned money.

You can avoid being scammed by not giving out personal information to people you do not know. You should also be careful about sending money to people you don't know, especially if they ask for a big sum of money.

It's important that we are careful in giving as well as receiving our hard earned money.

They use fake email addresses and phone numbers.

Scammers are a growing global threat, and are constantly evolving their tactics to take advantage of unsuspecting victims. If you're not careful, you can easily become a target of their malicious activities and suffer devastating financial losses.

With the seemingly endless array of scams out there, it can be difficult to stay one step ahead of scammers. You could be at risk of having your personal information stolen, or being scammed out of your hard-earned money.

Be alert and watch out for signs of a scammer! By staying vigilant and knowing what to look for, you can protect yourself from online fraudsters. Learn how to recognize the common red flags associated with scams so that you can avoid becoming a victim.

Fraudsters are becoming more and more sophisticated, leaving many people vulnerable to scams. It's harder than ever to identify a scammer before it's too late, and the losses can be unbearable.

The financial and emotional toll of falling for a scam is devastating. Even if you don't lose money directly, you could be left feeling embarrassed and betrayed. Don't let yourself become a victim!

Take control of your financial security by learning how to recognize the signs of a scammer. With the right knowledge, you can protect yourself from scammers before it's too late. Get informed today and stay safe!

With fraud and scams on the rise, it’s hard to know how to spot a scammer and protect yourself from being taken advantage of.

Scams can leave you feeling helpless, vulnerable, and robbed of your personal information and hard-earned money. It’s essential to take action now before you become a victim of a scammer.

Find out how to spot a scammer and what steps you can take to protect yourself from potential scams. With the right tools, knowledge, and action plan, you can secure yourself and your finances from scammers. Take action now!

Don't be scammed. Spot the signs

With the rise of online scams, it's important to be aware of the signs that you could be a victim of fraud. It's not easy to recognize these signs, but understanding them can help you protect yourself from becoming a victim.

Scammers often use tactics such as sending unsolicited emails or text messages, offering too-good-to-be-true deals, and requesting personal information. When you receive any kind of communication like this, it's important to be wary and take the time to investigate before you respond.

By recognizing these warning signs and taking steps to protect yourself, you can avoid falling for any scams that may come your way. Don't let yourself be scammed – spot the signs!

I'm aware that there is no way to be 100% safe from scammers, but you can reduce your risk by keeping these things in mind:

  • Never share your personal information with anyone over the internet.

  • Be suspicious of unsolicited emails or phone calls offering you something for free or at a discount rate (this includes financial advice).

  • Report any suspected scams to [USA.Gov/stop-scams-frauds].

Scammers are very good at what they do, and are very patient and persistent in their efforts to separate the vulnerable from their money.

Scammers are very good at what they do. They are patient and persistent in their efforts to separate the vulnerable from their money. Scammers use fake email addresses and phone numbers, which makes it difficult to contact them if something goes wrong. They play on vulnerability, loneliness, desperation, and hope.

Just as a scammer will go to great lengths to make his or her profile believable (e.g., using real photos of attractive people), they will also take time crafting a story that sounds believable or even impossible (e.g., “I was kidnapped by terrorists”).

Scammers often use common names like John Smith or Mary Jones so it is difficult for law enforcement agencies to track the perpetrator down after committing fraud against you unless there is an arrest warrant issued by your local police department for some reason other than identity theft/fraud charges related directly back towards your case/incident(s).

The way you described the person is 100% consistent with how a typical scammer works and applies to male or female scammers. Scammers play on vulnerability, loneliness, desperation, and hope.

The way you described the person is 100% consistent with how a typical scammer works and applies to male or female scammers. Scammers play on vulnerability, loneliness, desperation, and hope. It’s a numbers game for them; they are very good at what they do and have found that it pays off in the end for them financially. They are very patient and persistent in their efforts to separate the vulnerable from their money. For example: if someone really wants to get married but can't find “the one” (or is not ready for commitment), online dating sites provide an easy opportunity where people can meet others who are also looking for love — but not necessarily marriage!

Being distracted by the beauty or “sweetness” that comes from the scammer can be part of the scam also…the he or she will seem to relate, understand, offer solutions and be willing to listen – basically mirroring many of the same characteristics we want in our partners…but it is a facade to obtain trust based on a manufactured persona, not reality.

The person will be charming, sweet and the best listener you have ever had. He or she will be able to relate to you on many different levels and offer solutions to any problems that may have been bothering you.

The scammer is looking for a victim who is vulnerable, trusting and naive so they can gain your trust by showing concern in all areas of your life. They want to get into a relationship with someone who already has financial woes so they can use their “gift” card as an excuse (or the only reason) why they can not spend time together with their new friend/lover/partner.

Women can be aggressive scammers also – but they are not necessarily looking for money as much as they are looking for “love” – but who knows if they have ulterior motives – like phishing information, stealing identities, etc….I’ve seen them also be dangerous when things don’t go their way…they have been known to threaten people with violence or other harm if they do not do what they want.

Often times, the scammer is a man looking to scam money out of you. But other times, it can be a woman who is aggressive in her approach. I’ve seen them also be dangerous when things don’t go their way: they have been known to threaten people with violence or other harm if they do not do what they want.

If this sounds like you are having trouble figuring out what your scammer wants from you, it could be because she has multiple reasons for contacting you. She may be seeking money, but there could also be some other ulterior motive as well – such as phishing information or stealing identities.

Conclusion

So, the next time you receive a nude photo from someone who says they want to meet, remember that most likely all they’re after is your money. There are many ways to spot a scammer and some of these include: poor spelling and grammar; asking for money right away; sending gifts or presents; using fake photos; having an unusual number of profiles on dating sites or social media platforms such as Facebook or Instagram etc.

Tim Moseley

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Nouriel Roubini says gold may be your best protection as the mother of all debt bombs amp nine other megathreats are looming

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Nouriel Roubini says gold may be your best protection as the mother of all debt bombs & nine other megathreats are looming

 

Ten “megathreats” are hurtling towards the world including war, debt crises, and a demographic “time bomb” will make investors flock to gold, hence causing the yellow metal’s price to rise to $3k by 2028, according to Nouriel Roubini, CEO of Roubini Macro Associates and Professor Emeritus at NYU Stern School of Business.

“Over the next few years, I would expect that gold could have high single-digits into low double-digits rates of return,” he said. “I expect… rates of return around 10 percent per year over the next five years.”

Inflation, stagflation and a trend towards ‘de-dollarization’ will be the main drivers.

“If the rivals of the U.S. have to diversify away from dollar assets because we weaponize the dollar and sanctions can be imposed, then the only international reserve asset that cannot be seized by the U.S. and the West is not the dollar, Euro, yen, or pound,” he said. “It can only be gold.”

He forecast gold to rise by 10 percent per year over five years, resulting in a gold price of over $3,000 per ounce, an overall return of 60 percent.

Roubini, also known as ‘Dr. Doom’ for his grim economic forecasts and for correctly predicting the 2008 financial crisis before it occurred, said that a “stagflationary depression” could begin in 2023, which would cause both stocks and bonds to decline.

“If I am right, that we will have a hard landing, that inflation is going to be persistent, and that central banks are in a dilemma, [then] both equities and bonds will do poorly,” he predicted. “Gold should do better because… it is a hedge against inflation. It is also a hedge against financial instability, and a hedge against social, political, and geopolitical stability.”

Roubini spoke with Michelle Makori, Editor-in-Chief and Lead Anchor at Kitco News.

Geopolitical threats

Roubini said that “revisionist powers” like China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea would challenge the U.S. and Europe for world dominance in the years to come.

He singled out Taiwan, a U.S. ally, as an example. Echoing U.S. navy chief Michael Gilday, he warned that China could attack Taiwan as soon as 2023, causing further tensions between China and the U.S.

“[China’s President] Xi came to power for a third term not because he wants to reform China, but because he wants to pass into history as the president that united mainland China with Taiwan,” Roubini claimed. “Recently, Biden has made statements that if China were either to invade Taiwan, or even impose a naval blockade, the U.S. will directly intervene in that conflict.”

He warned that such a conflict would escalate into a “fully nuclear war between the U.S. and China,” and if the United States were to renege on its commitment to Taiwan, it would lose credibility as a military ally.

“If you lose Taiwan, your credibility of committing to defend your allies like South Korea, Japan, Australia and others in Asia is going to fall,” he observed. “That is why Taiwan is important, not because of Taiwan, but because of the consequences on the hegemonic power of the U.S. in Asia.”

Fed tightening likely to pause

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 425 basis points last year in an effort to tame inflation, which reached a peak of 9.1 percent in June 2022.

Roubini said that the Fed would need to raise rates to at least 6 percent, but is unlikely to do so, given that this would cause a “severe” recession and debt implosions. He suggested that the Fed would pivot or pause its tightening cycle.

“You need to raise interest rates at least to six percent in order to push, over time, inflation towards two [percent], but interest rates at six percent are going to led to severe economic contraction,” he observed. “It is going to lead to even more credit distress…. There is so much debt in the system that an attempt to reduce inflation not only causes an economic crash, it causes also a financial crisis. They will feed on each other, and faced with an economic and financial crash, the Fed and other central banks are going to have to wimp out, blink, and not raise interest rates as much.”

However, Roubini said that this monetary policy response would then cause a “de-anchoring of inflation expectations,” leading to inflation of “at least” 5 to 6 percent over the medium term.

“We have inability in the public sector to increase taxes or cut government spending,” he said. “The temptation is going to be to wipe out the real value of long-duration government debt at fixed interest rates, but you can also wipe out the nominal value of private debt through a bout of unexpected inflation. That has already happened last year, and it is going to continue to happen. We’re going to use the inflation tax to deal with excessive amounts of private and public debt.”

Megathreats

In his new book, Megathreats: Ten Dangerous Trends That Imperil Our Future, and How to Survive Them, Roubini identifies debt crises, deglobalization, a demographic time bomb, climate catastrophes, Artificial Intelligence and other factors as “megathreats” which imperil all of humanity, and could lead to a “dystopia.”

A key theme in the book is that fixing one problem can make another one worse. For example, Roubini writes that to fix climate change, massive investments in green energy are required, but such investments would require a reduction in people’s standard of living.

“The economic cycles and the financial cycles, the boom bubbles busting and crashing, are becoming more severe and more frequent for a number of reasons, including toxic leverage of the economy and financial system,” he said. “It’s a very different world from the one I grew up in with these megathreats, which I didn’t even hear about while I was growing up. Now each one of them is a material threat to our prosperity, to peace, and to progress.”

To find out which other investments are likely to withstand Roubini’s ‘megathreats,’ watch the video above

Follow Michelle Makori on Twitter: @MichelleMakori

Follow Kitco News on Twitter: @KitcoNewsNOW

By Cornelius Christian

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

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Gold closes at its highest value this year although traders bid it lower

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Gold closes at its highest value this year, although traders bid it lower

Gold futures and spot pricing closed moderately higher today. However, traders and investors bid the precious yellow metal lower with dollar weakness accounting for all of today's gains. As of 4:40 PM EST gold futures basis, the most active February contract is currently up $5.80 or 0.32% and fixed at $1875.60. Concurrently, the dollar is trading 0.68% lower on the day with the dollar index currently fixed at 102.945. Simply comparing the percentage gain in gold (+0.32%) against the percentage decline in the dollar (-0.68%) reveals that there was selling pressure in gold futures today.

The same is true for spot or physical gold. According to the KGX, (Kitco Gold Index) spot gold is currently fixed at $1870.80 after factoring in today's gain of $5.10. However on closer inspection dollar weakness resulted in gains of $12.90 per ounce, and selling pressure took gold lower by $7.80 resulting in today's moderate gain.

A case can be made for the selling pressure in gold on a fundamental and technical basis. Reuters News reported a comment made by Mary Daily the president of the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank who said, "The Fed should try to bring inflation down "as gently as we can," but it also "absolutely" needs to make sure high inflation does not become embedded."

This suggested that the Fed might raise rates by 50- bps, rather than 25 bps which was the anticipated rate hike that the Federal Reserve would enact at the next FOMC meeting (January 31 – February 1). During a webcast interview with the Wall Street Journal daily she left open that possibility. "I can give you arguments for either side."

She confirmed the current outlook by the Federal Reserve that ultimately interest rates need to go to between 5.00% and 5.25% and remain there to bring inflation to the Federal Reserve's target of 2%.

Traders and investors are viewing the potential for a 50-bps hike as reflected by the selling pressure in both gold futures and spot pricing. However, according to the CME's FedWatch tool, there is a 79.2% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise rates by ¼% and a 20.8% probability that they will raise rates more aggressively by 50 bps.

Market participants will look at the December reading of the CPI (Consumer Price Index) this Thursday to gain more insight into the Federal Reserve's 2023 monetary policy.

Technical studies also suggest that gold prices could correct

Today gold futures traded to an intraday high of $1886 before settling approximately $10 lower at the time of this writing. Our technical studies indicate that gold futures could find potential resistance at $1881 which is based upon a top that occurred at the end of June 2022. Gold futures did trade above that price point but closed below it suggesting possible resistance at the top created in June.

By Gary Wagner

Contributing to kitco.com

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

The Artist that came out of the Winter