Gold a bit weaker following downbeat U.S. GDP data
Gold prices are modestly down in midday U.S. trading Thursday, in the aftermath of a major U.S. economic report that was weaker than expected and falls into the camp of those expecting a U.S. economic recession. Such a scenario would likely mean less consumer and commercial demand for metals. June gold was last down $3.40 at $1,992.80 and May silver was up $0.009 at $24.885.
First-quarter U.S. GDP growth came in lower than expected at up 1.1%, year on year, compared to expectations for a rise of 2.0%. The closely watched PCE price index of the GDP data came in hot at up 4.2%; it was expected to be up 3.7%, year-on-year, versus a rise of 3.9% in the fourth quarter. The hotter PCE number falls into the camp of the U.S. monetary policy hawks, who want the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates higher for longer, to choke off problematic inflation.
Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are solidly higher at midday. Risk appetite is better Thursday, but by no means robust, following the big drop in share price of First Republic Bank earlier this week. Also, the specter of a U.S. economic recession is moving closer to the front burner of the marketplace. It could be that the growing U.S. government debt burden and congressional wrangling regarding what to do about it are also crimping investor enthusiasm. Reads a Wall Street Journal headline today: "Banking turmoil is tip of debt iceberg."
Gold consolidates but remains on a 'golden cross path' higher – NDR's Tim Hayes
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index firmer. Nymex crude oil prices are up and trading around $74.75 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching around 3.5%.
Technically, June gold futures bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. However, a six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has stalled out. Bulls' next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the April high of $2,063.40. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the April low of $1,965.90. First resistance is seen at this week's high of $2,020.20 and then at $2,028.00. First support is seen at last week's low of $1,980.90 and then at $1,965.90. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0
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May silver futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the April high of $26.235. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $23.00. First resistance is seen at this week's high of $25.435 and then at $25.71. Next support is seen at this week's low of $24.53 and then at $24.25. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.
May N.Y. copper closed up 115 points at 386.50 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session high and hit a nearly four-month low early on today. The copper bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 410.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 360.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 390.00 cents and then at Tuesday's high of 397.00 cents. First support is seen at today's low of 380.50 cents and then at 377.50 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.
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(Kitco News) – Gold prices are modestly down and silver near steady in midday U.S. dealings Wednesday. The precious metals markets are seeing buying interest limited by a rise in U.S. Treasury yields at mid-week. However, losses in metals are being limited by a weaker U.S. dollar index today. June gold was last down $7.20 at $1,997.30 and May silver was up $0.003 at $24.89.
Traders at mid-week are buzzing about First Republic Bank's quarterly earnings report on Tuesday that was worse than expected, including a huge outflow of deposits. Reports said the bank's conference call on its earnings was very brief, with no questions taken from reporters. That prompted a nearly 50% drop in the bank's share price Tuesday, including trading in the stock being halted for a while. Reports today said the U.S. government is not going to step in an assist the ailing bank.
Meantime, U.S. and/or global recession fears appear to be moving back toward the front burner of the marketplace. Diesel fuel prices in the U.S. have plunged in recent months and are about half of what they were one year ago. Such suggests a slowdown in the commercial transportation sector that could be a signal of a slowing U.S. economy. United Parcel Service (UPS) on Tuesday issued a downbeat corporate earnings report, saying “macro conditions” would likely continue to pressure its delivery volume. The metals markets appear to be taking a bearish lean from this situation, on notions of less consumer and commercial demand if the global economy weakens.
Global stock markets were mixed to weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are mixed at midday. Focus of stock traders this week is on the release of quarterly corporate earnings reports. So far, they have been mixed.
QE isn't over and will drive gold to $3,000 and Bitcoin to $100,000 in the next decade – Crossborder Capital
In overnight news, Sweden's central bank raised its main interest rate by 0.5%, saying inflation is still far too high.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $76.75 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.695%.
Technically, June gold futures bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. However, a six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has stalled out. Bulls' next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the April high of $2,063.40. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the April low of $1,965.90. First resistance is seen at today's high of $2,020.20 and then at $2,028.00. First support is seen at last week's low of $1,980.90 and then at $1,965.90. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0
May silver futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, a six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated, which is one early clue that a market top is in place. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the April high of $26.235. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $23.00. First resistance is seen at this week's high of $25.435 and then at $25.71. Next support is seen at this week's low of $24.53 and then at $24.25. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.
May N.Y. copper closed up 105 points at 385.85 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The copper bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 410.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the March low of 382.20 cents. First resistance is seen at 390.00 cents and then at Tuesday's high of 397.00 cents. First support is seen at this week's low of 383.00 cents and then at 382.20 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.
The world is living on borrowed time, it’s given by God for His purpose.
2 Peter 3:9
“The Lord is not slack concerning His promise, as some count slackness, but is longsuffering toward us, not willing that any should perish but that all should come to repentance.”
The world has fallen into darkness, it has abandoned God and instead follows the doctrines of demons and worships idols. The darkness has become so blatant that men now resemble the days of Noah, evil and wicked, which leads to death and destruction! They twist the truth to their own wicked desires as they turn good into bad and bad into good. This is where we are my friends, in a world turned upside down and inside out!
There is no other reason for God to not now judge the world and pour out His wrath, other than Him waiting for more people to come to repentance and accept Him as their Lord and Savior.
The world deserves God’s wrath, it deserves what it strives for, peace with God or friendship with the world and its system, the latter of which is enmity with God!
James 4:4
“Adulterers and adulteresses! Do you not know that friendship with the world is enmity with God? Whoever therefore wants to be a friend of the world makes himself an enemy of God.”
The time is very close my friends, very close to God’s wrath being poured out upon an evil and wicked world. We are living on borrowed time!
The world systems are an illusion, a false reality, a twisted copy of what God Himself has created. At some point in time all of it will come tumbling down, like a house of cards that it truly is! Evil, corruption, and perversion!!!
Listen to the Lord, do not be conformed to this world, but be transformed by the renewing of your mind through Christ Jesus!
Romans 12:2
“And do not be conformed to this world, but be transformed by the renewing of your mind, that you may prove what is that good and acceptable and perfect will of God.”
The day of God’s wrath is coming soon.
Revelation 6:17
“For the great day of His wrath has come, and who is able to stand?”
The day of the Lord comes quickly as a thief in the night!
1 Thessalonians 5:2
“For you yourselves know perfectly that the day of the Lord so comes as a thief in the night.”
The world scoffs at those that warn of God’s coming judgment.
2 Peter 3:3-5
‘knowing this first: that scoffers will come in the last days, walking according to their own lusts, 4 and saying, “Where is the promise of His coming? For since the fathers fell asleep, all things continue as they were from the beginning of creation.” ‘
Yes, all things continue as they have from the beginning, just as they did in the days of Noah when the great flood came and took them all away! So shall it be at the time of the beginning of the Tribulation period, mocking, scoffing, and living life as they always have, not heeding God’s warnings!
Today is the day of salvation, you might not have another tomorrow!
2 Corinthians 6:2
‘For He says:
“In an acceptable time I have heard you, And in the day of salvation I have helped you.”
Behold, now is the accepted time; behold, now is the day of salvation.’
Gold consolidates but remains on a 'golden cross path' higher – NDR's Tim Hayes
The gold market could continue to consolidate around $2,000 an ounce as the Federal Reserve prepares to raise interest rates one last time and then hold the line until inflation is under control, according to one analyst.
However, even this new holding pattern doesn't dimmish gold's potential. In a recent interview with Kitco News, Tim Hayes, chief global investment strategist at Ned Davis Research, said the trend in gold is clearly higher. He noted that in his Gold Watch report, nine of the 16 indicators he watches are flashing bullish signals.
Hayes' bullish outlook for gold comes as prices continue to trade on either side of $2,000. June gold futures last traded at $2008.20 an ounce, up 0.42% on the day. Hayes explained that the gold market benefits from solid tailwinds as commodity prices remain elevated and bond yields and the U.S. dollar continue to struggle.
"If we see continuing signs of the economy slowing, and the bond market continues to anticipate that the Federal is going to hold interest rates, then yields are going come down and that would help gold break out and regain its momentum," he said.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets see an 80% chance that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates one last time by 25 basis points next week. At the same time, markets are pricing in a potential rate cut after the summer.
Although market expectations of a rate cut this year might be premature, Hayes said that just the Fed holding interest rates should be enough to support gold as other tailwinds drive the precious metal.
Along with real and nominal yields, Hayes said that gold investors must keep an eye on the U.S. dollar. While the Federal Reserve appears to be on the cusp of ending its tightening cycle, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank are ramping up their rate hikes.
Hayes said the narrowing divergence in global monetary policy will continue to hurt the U.S. dollar and support gold prices.
"As long as the dollar is under downward pressure, that will be solid support for gold," he said.
Gold remains well positioned to protect investors from further market turmoil – MarketVector's Yang
As for how long gold's current consolidation phase could last, Hayes said prices have a long way to go before the uptrend is significantly damaged.
Looking at gold's technical picture, Hayes said its bullish uptrend was confirmed in January when the 50-day moving average moved above its 200-day moving average, creating a "golden cross pattern."
At roughly around the same time, the U.S. dollar saw its 50-day moving average fall below its 200-day, forming a "death cross."
"We are nowhere near testing gold's 50-day moving average, but that has to start rolling over to signal that the uptrend has finished," he said. "I think what is probably more like is that we're pausing at these record levels, consolidating and maybe the market kind of works off some of the optimism and then the trend continues – gold's on a solid golden cross."
Info from Thursday’s GDP and Friday’s PCE report will guide investors
This week will contain two exceedingly important government reports on the US economy. These two reports will be exceedingly important in guiding the final decision of the Federal Reserve at the FOMC meeting next week.
Beginning on Thursday the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will release the Gross Domestic Product first quarter report. An average of the current forecasts is predicting that the first quarter GDP for 2023 will come in at 1.8%. If correct, this would indicate that the economy continues to contract from the 2.6% GDP that was reported in the fourth quarter of last year.
According to Saxo.com, “The advance reading of the US real GDP growth, scheduled to release on Thursday, is expected, according to Bloomberg’s survey of economists, to slow to 2% Q/Q annualized in Q1, down from 2.6% in Q4 last year. Despite inventory drawdown potentially dragging GDP growth, personal consumption is expected to come in strong at 4% Q/Q annualized and be the key driving force to sustain GDP growth in Q1.”
This will be followed by Friday’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, the preferred measure of inflation and wage growth used by the Federal Reserve. Economists polled by Bloomberg are predicting a moderate forecast for the core PCE to show an increase of inflation by 0.3% MoM and 4.5% YoY.
According to the same report by Saxo, “As rent-related components have a smaller weight in the core PCE measures than in the core CPI calculation, the core PCE may not benefit as much as the CPI counterpart from the recent weaknesses in rents. Investors will monitor closely the core service excluding housing sub-index in the PCE report to gauge the underlying consumer inflation trend in the U.S. Meanwhile, the headline PCE deflator growth is expected to slow to 0.1% M/M and 4.1% Y/Y in March from 0.3% M/M and 5.0% Y/Y in February.”
These upcoming reports and their forecasts have led investors to devalue the US dollar which in turn has added strength to gold prices. However, gold futures remain just under $2000 per ounce at the time of this writing.
As of 5:00 PM EST, gold futures basis most active June contract is up $8.10 or 0.41% and fixed at $1998.60. Gains witnessed in gold futures today have an exacting negative correlation to dollar weakness. Currently, the dollar is down 0.45% with the dollar index currently fixed at 101.095. Gold futures have traded to a higher low and a lower high than Friday’s strong price decline. On Friday of last week, gold futures broke below a critical technical and psychological price level of $2000 per ounce. As gold held above $2000 speculators and traders believed there was a strong possibility that gold would challenge the record of $2088 per ounce. Reciprocally, moves below that key technical level garnered speculation of gold prices dropping.
According to the CME’s FedWatch tool, there is almost a certainty (91.4%) that the Federal Reserve will end next week’s meeting with the announcement of a ¼% rate hike. Also, there is a 67.9% probability that the Fed’s terminal target rate will remain between 5% and 5 ¼% with the Federal Reserve not raising rates at the June 2023 FOMC meeting.
From CBDCs to Cryptocurrency Regulations: G-7 Plans to Promote Financial Inclusion and Investor Protection.
A closer assessment of the global events on cryptocurrencies today shows a trend toward more regulation and maturity. Many countries see the potential advantages of blockchain technology across many industries. The regulatory environment surrounding cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology is continuously changing as those sectors of the economy continue to develop and find widespread use.
The Group of Seven (G-7) meeting this year will be presided over by Japan to prioritize cryptocurrency regulations. Politicians perceive a greater need to control crypto assets in light of the bankruptcy of the cryptocurrency exchange FTX last year. Although different nations have differing opinions on regulating cryptocurrency, Masato Kanda, Japan's Vice Minister of Finance for International Affairs, told Reuters that the overall consensus is to control the market.
Also, to help developing nations introduce central bank digital currencies (CBDC) following necessary international standards and define G-7's public policy guidelines for retail CBDC. Talks will focus on these issues. Retail CBDCs, instead of wholesale CBDCs are created for institutional uses such as moving money between banks. According to Kanda, the other area of concentration would be on the debt vulnerabilities of middle-income nations like the Gambia, Ghana, Ethiopia, and Sri Lanka.
Kanda noted that while the quick development of digital technology has its benefits, it has also given rise to new issues like cyber-security, the spread of false information, social and political divisions, and the potential for instability in the financial markets.
Brief History of the Group of Seven (G-7)
The group first came together informally in Paris in the early 1970s when leaders from the United States, United Kingdom, France, West Germany, and Japan gathered to discuss the recession and oil problem of the time. The French President Valéry Giscard d'Estaing was then encouraged to invite the presidents of those nations and Italy to Rambouillet in 1975 for additional discussions on world oil, this time with the country's leaders joining the finance ministers, an attendance list that has persisted for several years. Canada was sent an invitation to join the group the following year.
The host of the G-7 summit, also known as the presidency, rotates annually among member countries in the following order: France, United States, United Kingdom, Germany, Japan, Italy, and Canada.
G7's Expansion to G-8
The G-7 had reacted as the world economy changed, particularly when the Soviet Union announced that it would hold its first direct presidential election and commit to building an economy with more open markets. President Boris Yeltsin organized meetings with the G-7 member nations after a G-7 summit in Naples, Italy, in 1994. These conversations became known as the P-8 (Political 8).
An official Group of Eight, or G-8, was established in 1998 when Russia joined the G-7 as a full member at the encouragement of world leaders, particularly U.S. President Bill Clinton. The G-8 ultimately had a brief existence.
Russia was expelled from the organization in 2014 due to the annexation of Crimea and the unrest in Ukraine. Russia has yet to receive a G-7 invitation as of this writing.
G-7 Aims to Assist Developing Nations With the Establishment of CBDCs
The Group of Seven (G-7) announced its commitment to promoting financial inclusion for developing nations by using central bank digital currencies. This move comes as a response to the COVID-19 pandemic, highlighting the need for greater access to financial services.
The G7 has recognized the potential of CBDCs to increase financial inclusion and reduce poverty in developing nations. By providing access to digital financial services, CBDCs can help people currently excluded from the traditional financial system, such as those living in remote areas or without access to banking services.
Moreover, CBDCs can facilitate cross-border transactions and reduce remittance costs. This is particularly relevant for developing nations, where remittances play a significant economic role. In 2020, remittances to low- and middle-income countries reached a record high of $540 billion, according to the World Bank.
The G-7's commitment to promoting CBDCs for financial inclusion is a significant step towards a more inclusive and sustainable global financial system. However, there are challenges to overcome, such as ensuring that CBDCs are accessible to everyone, including those without internet or digital devices, and that people will accept it as a means of exchange. From the look of things, most people may want to transact with Bitcoin and not the CBDC, which keeps them under the government's radar.
Moreover, the G-7 must work with developing nations to ensure CBDCs align with their specific needs and priorities. This requires collaboration and dialogue between the G-7 and developing countries and the involvement of the private sector and other stakeholders.
The leaders will advocate stronger laws to safeguard investors and more openness for cryptocurrency firms. Before meeting later this year in Japan, they intend to progress rules to achieve their goals.
Following the collapse of the TerraUSD stablecoin in early May of last year, the G-7 advocated additional and stricter regulations, according to the report published by Reuters. Japan is one of the G-7 nations with stricter cryptocurrency legislation, while the European Union will implement its Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) law in 2024. The primary goal of the MiCA is to protect consumers and investors from the growing risks of digital assets while improving financial stability within the entire crypto market.
The United Kingdom is progressively establishing its crypto framework, introducing a dedicated category for cryptocurrency holdings on tax forms and ongoing preparations for a digital pound. The Congress of the United States is considering various measures. While we wait, the securities watchdog has taken enforcement action against businesses they claim have broken the law on securities.
Many crypto enterprises have moved from the United States to Singapore, the United Kingdom, Dubai, and the EU due to what crypto industry participants perceive as lacking commitment to establishing clear regulations for crypto businesses in the States.
Recommendations on controlling, monitoring, and overseeing the markets for crypto assets, stablecoins, and related activities are expected to be presented by July and September. But it still needs to be apparent what the outcome would be.
Some time ago, the IMF urged nations to remove cryptocurrencies' legal currency status in an action plan on crypto assets published in February. It is commonly known that the IMF opposes using cryptocurrencies as legal tender, especially in light of El Salvador's adoption of Bitcoin as its official currency in September 2021.
However, the group has been pushing nations to embrace stricter crypto regulations while also developing an open-source infrastructure for central banks to connect their digital currencies and facilitate international trade.
FASB To Act on Travel Rule
The G-7 leaders’ meeting with the Financial Accounting Standards Board means they could impose rules on the international crypto movement. The leaders work in close relations with the FASB to handle stability risks associated with crypto assets.
They asked the FASB to advance the swift development and implementation of consistent and comprehensive regulation of crypto-asset issuers and service providers intending to hold crypto-assets, including stablecoins, to the same standards as the rest of the financial system.
The G-7 leaders demand further action concerning the travel rule for cryptocurrency assets. Delegates to the Financial Action Task Force plenary in Paris recently resolved to put revised guidelines for the Travel Rule into effect. These standards will enforce the "transmission of originator and beneficiary information" for cryptocurrency.
The virtual asset legislation implemented in 2019 was followed by these stricter enforcement criteria. This rule at the time included a requirement to gather information regarding the origin and destination of transfers of virtual assets.
In line with all the fights against cryptocurrency, one cannot help but think whether the G-7's crypto regulation is a weaponized tool against people's Freedom or whether they are acting in their best interest. Decisions made about the issuance of CBDC will undoubtedly impact our financial system and society as a whole. Stakeholders are essential since an isolated decision-making process would certainly be detrimental.
Therefore, the Freedom of stakeholders should be in consideration in the regulation process to ensure that the inclusivity in payments infrastructure and finance that crypto and blockchain technology take satisfaction in contributing to is preserved. If at all, the G-7 should indeed be acting in the people's best interest.
The influence of CBDCs on nations' economies is extensive and varied. CBDCs may undermine conventional banking practices, but they also give banks much more room to innovate and expand financial inclusion. The adoption of CBDC calls for a transparent legislative environment, financial investment in digital infrastructure, and strong security precautions. Nations will need to adapt and change to compete in a world that is becoming increasingly digital as CBDCs gain popularity throughout the globe.
About: Prince Ibenne. (Nigeria) Rapid and sustainable human growth is my passion, and getting a life-changing opportunity into the hands of people is my calling. Empowering entrepreneurs provides me with enormous gratification. Find me at my Markethive Profile Page | My Twitter Account | and my LinkedIn Profile.
Gold price plunges $30, but analysts focus on Fed pause after May rate hike
Gold tumbled $30 on the day and dropped below the critical $2,000 an ounce level, but analysts said there is enough buying interest to boost prices back up.
Significant volatility in the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields markets took a toll on gold Friday, with June Comex gold futures last trading at $1,989.10, down 1.49% on the day.
The Fed's blackout period also begins this Saturday, meaning Federal Reserve officials won't speak publicly between then and the May 3 FOMC meeting. Markets are currently pricing in an 88% chance of a 25-basis-point hike, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
"It is expected the Fed will raise rates a quarter point next month. And there is a great deal of uncertainty with gold above or below $2,000. I remain bullish at these levels. We will get to a point where the Fed has to pause and make that pivot. And maybe resort to cuts later this year," RJO Futures senior market strategist Frank Cholly told Kitco News. "That will support gold, which will trade at all-time highs between now and the end of the year."
Next week, markets will zero in on fresh macro data, including the U.S. Q1 GDP and PCE price index numbers.
"The upcoming U.S. economic data, especially the GDP data and the price deflator for consumer expenditures, being the Fed's preferred inflation measure, could trigger some price movement," said Commerzbank analyst Carsten Fritsch.
On Friday, markets already digested stronger-than-expected U.S. manufacturing and service sector data, which weighed on gold. The S&P Global Flash U.S. manufacturing PMI advanced to 50.4 in April from March's reading of 49.2. This marked the first move into expansion territory since September.
"Markets were looking for a decline. Also, people thought that the U.S. dollar would be dropping and positioned short. And with economic data moving higher, we are likely seeing some short-covering," TD Securities' global head of commodity strategy Bart Melek told Kitco News. "The Fed is more likely than not to keep that hawkish stance alive. For May, it is on track to do another 25bps hike, and there is a risk of one increase more after that."
Price levels
A decent support level for gold is at around $1,962, but prices can drop below that, Melek noted, adding that it will depend on the economic data and what the yields are doing. “Technically, we see significant support at just above $1,960/oz. However, we see the yellow metal trend at $2,100/oz in late H2-2023,” he said.
Cholly pointed to $1,975-80 as likely to hold next week. He added that "markets tend to overreach in both directions. The $1,975 level is going to be relatively good support. I don't see it getting below $1,965." On the upside, the first hurdle will be $2,025 and then $2,050-60.
After the Fed May rate hike
The May hike looks increasingly likely to be the last interest rate increase, according to Capital Economics deputy chief U.S. economist Andrew Hunter.
"We are increasingly confident that the May rate hike will prove to be the last of this cycle … [And] our expectation that rates will be cut again late this year. That's based on our long-standing view that the economy is headed for recession, eventually dragging inflation down more quickly than the Fed is allowing for."
Gold's long-term bullish outlook is still very much intact. And as soon as markets settle on when the Fed pauses, gold will rally.
"Right now, there is a risk that the Fed overdoes it. When the economy slows, it will be fast. For gold, it is important that a pivot is happening, and there is a significant risk that U.S. central bank won't strictly adhere to 2% inflation," said Melek.
And that means that the Fed will likely ignore elevated inflation and keep adding accommodation, which will sustain gold's bullish trend. "This would imply lower real rates than previous cycles," Melek pointed out. "Central banks and consumers are buying gold as a hedge to preserve their purchasing power."
Investors are also once again realizing that there is more than one reason to own gold, added Cholly.
"The safe haven trade is going to be a factor. And it is not just a hedge against the U.S. dollar and rates. But geopolitical tensions are rising again, especially between U.S. and China," he said. "People are starting to feel like there is enough uncertainty. And we are about to enter a recession. Gold prices will remain strong."
Next week's data
Tuesday: CB consumer confidence, U.S. new home sales
Wednesday: U.S. durable goods orders
Thursday: U.S. GDP Q1, jobless claims, U.S. pending home sales,
Gold is just stepping back to build a running start
After a month of massive volatility, markets are now comfortable with the idea that the Federal Reserve is not done raising interest rates. Not only is a 25-basis point hike for May firmly priced in, but markets have now pushed back the timing of any potential rate cut to the end of the year.
At the height of last month's banking crisis, markets were pricing in a potential rate cut as early as June, so it's no wonder why gold prices are ending below $2,000 an ounce this week. While gold could see further lows in the near term, analysts note that the market is still on track to hit all-time highs this year.
It's not surprising that some investors are taking some profits in gold. Fear of the global economy breaking is being replaced by renewed fears of inflation. While U.S. consumer prices are on a downward trend, inflation is being acutely felt in the United Kingdom. The nation's Consumer Price Index showed annual inflation holding relatively steady at 10.1% last month. This was the seventh consecutive month that inflation has been above 10%.
There are unique reasons why inflation is exceptionally high in Britain. Still, the data indicates that inflation is a global problem that will likely become entrenched in the broader global economy. The British inflation data showed that food prices rose 19.2% in the last 12 months.
Despite specific economic issues, this number does not bode well for the world. The last time I checked, everyone needs to eat.
It's hard to argue that the inflation threat has gone away when agricultural commodity prices are going higher. Sugar prices are at their highest level in 11 years; meanwhile, feeder cattle future prices are at an eight-year high. Consumers better prepare for more expensive barbecues this summer.
Even those who don't eat beef are stuck. This week analysts at Fitch Solutions published a report saying that rice production in 2023 is expected to see its worst annual production in 20 years. According to Fitch, The world could see a rice deficit of 8.7 million tonnes.
These headlines will keep the Federal Reserve from loosening its monetary policies anytime soon, which, as we know, is a negative for gold.
However, while gold could see some near-term selling pressure, many analysts note that the precious metal remains well supported. Last month's banking crisis shows that there is only so much the Federal Reserve can do before the economy breaks.
Many analysts have noted that gold remains an attractive, safe haven and inflation hedge.
"The monetary disorder that we have seen is far from over, and right now, we are just waiting to see how it will spread," said James Robertson, an analyst at Grant's Interest Rate Observer, in an interview with Kitco News. "This will continue to support gold prices."
Looking past global monetary policies, there are other reasons to be bullish on gold, including the fact that it remains an essential monetary metal. The worldwide de-dollarization trend is picking up significant momentum. In a recent report, Stephen Jen, CEO and co-CIO of Eurizon SLJ Capital, said that the U.S. dollar's share as a global reserve currency dropped to 47% last year, down from 55% in 2021. In 2020, 73% of reserves were in U.S. dollars.
Inflation may moderate, but pension funds aren't taking any changes as they increase their exposure to gold and commodities – Ortec Finance
“The dollar suffered a stunning collapse in 2022 in its market share as a reserve currency, presumably due to its muscular use of sanctions," Jen wrote in the report.
Central banks have been flocking to gold in this environment, and analysts don't expect this trend to end anytime soon.
Finally, while we talk a lot about gold in this newsletter, we can't ignore what is happening in other precious metals. Silver is outperforming gold as prices hold above $25 an ounce and platinum is the best-performing metal in the complex.
Both silver and platinum are benefiting from growing imbalances in their supply and demand fundamentals.
This week, the Silver Institute said that the silver market hit a record deficit in 2022 and it expects that trend to continue into 2023. Metals Focus, the firm behind the research, noted that the deficits in 2021 and 2022 have more than offset the cumulative surpluses of the previous 11 years.
According to many analysts, this deficit should continue to support higher prices.
The hawkish Fed narrative continues to underscore the need for further rate hikes
The recent volatility that led to diminished bullish market sentiment for gold has diminished as gold continues to effectively find support at $2000 per ounce and above. Today gold traded to a low of $2002.20, effectively above the current critical support level of $2000. This morning in New York traders witnessed a quick and powerful price surge taking gold to a high of $2024.20. As of 4:00 PM EST gold futures basis the most active June 2023 contract is up $8.30, or 0.41%, and fixed at $2015.60.
The dollar had very little input in today’s price gains in gold with the index off fractionally by 0.08% and fixed at 101.585.
Officials of the Federal Reserve continue to express a resolute narrative that is conveying that at least for the near future a pause of interest rate hikes is off the table. Rather, an additional Federal Reserve official today continues to reiterate the need for taking interest rates higher, which will include additional rate hikes, and keeping the elevated level intact for a longer period of time.
Federal Reserve officials will go silent in two days, on Saturday, April 22. The blackout period will remain in effect until the May FOMC meeting has concluded, and a statement is released which will be followed by a press conference with Chairman Powell.
Now three Fed officials have expressed the need to continue to raise interest rates even after the anticipated ¼% rate hike occurs in May. Yesterday, the New York Federal Reserve President, John Williams spoke to a group of bond-market experts known as the Money Marketeers of New York University saying that recent data has indicated that a “trend of slowing inflation is continuing.” He also added that there are some indications of a “gradual cooling in the demand for labor”. However, “Inflation is still too high and we will use our monetary policy tools to restore price stability.”
President Williams's comments can now be added to similar remarks by Fed Governor Christopher Waller and James Bullard.
Wallace said that the Federal Reserve needs to continue raising interest rates because of the high level of inflation. St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said, “The U.S. central bank should continue raising interest rates on the back of recent data showing inflation remains persistent while the broader economy seems poised to continue growing, even if slowly.”
The combination of all three Fed officials expressed a narrative much different than many market participants assumed, which was a pause by the Federal Reserve in rate hikes to begin after one more rate hike in May. Market participants are now factoring in the possibility of additional rate hikes after the expected ¼% hike at the FOMC meeting in May.
The Censorship Industrial Complex Is At It Again With Another Trojan Horse
Just when you think things couldn’t get any worse regarding governmental control over online information, a recent US Bill aimed at reigning in the viral app TikTok has a strong chance of becoming law. In recent years governments worldwide have scrutinized TikTok due to its connections with the Chinese government. This scrutiny has escalated into calls for an outright ban of the social media app in some countries.
The targeting of TikTok is considered a ruse, as some governments are using this bill to ban TikTok as a trojan horse for unprecedented internet censorship. This article explores the various sections of the US bill, their real agenda, and what it means for us as citizens. But first, let’s look at the backstory of TikTok.
TikTok In Context
As mentioned, governments worldwide have been examining TikTok for some time due to its connections to the Chinese government. TikTok, owned by ByteDance, collects an incredible amount of user data. It gathers your name, age, phone number, contacts, location, images, videos, and everything you type, including the messages you send and receive. It can even access your camera and microphone, and it can do all of this even when you're not using the app.
According to TikTok surveillance mediators, they maintain that it's no different from being tracked and traced by an American tech company like, Google or Microsoft. The thing is that there are two significant differences. First, governments need permission to access user data in most Western countries. Secondly, and more importantly, this data is being shared with a foreign government that is the geopolitical rival of most Western powers.
Now, the other part of why there's been so much scrutiny about TikTok is the algorithm. There have been countless reports of TikTok feeding straight-up evil content to people in the West. Recent reports have focused on TikTok’s promotion of eating disorders and suicide.
Meanwhile, Douyin, China's version of TikTok, also owned by ByteDance, shows young people videos of things being built, discoveries being made, and other meaningful things being accomplished. In other words, it promotes the exact opposite kind of content that TikTok does in most Western countries. This is arguably an overt form of information warfare, and it begs the question of what should be done about it. Well, the simple answer is to ban TikTok.
Previous Calls For The TickTok Ban
The former US President, Donald Trump, famously proposed a TickTok ban in 2020. ByteDance initially agreed to meet Trump halfway by selling its US operations to Microsoft. This would keep all the app data collected in the US away from China, but the sale was unsuccessful after ByteDance rejected the offer.
However, US President Joe Biden ditched the TikTok ban idea when he revoked Trump's related executive order in 2021. At the time, the proposed ban was seen as political suicide due to the app’s popularity. But over the last year or so, US politicians have changed their view on TikTok.
TikTok Ban On Government Devices
The renewed calls to ban TikTok began late last year when the Biden Administration formulated the US government's $1.7 trillion spending bill for 2023. A provision to exclude TikTok from government devices is buried in the Bill, which is over 4,000 pages and was passed in December 2022. In the following months, close allies of the US, the UK, and the EU followed suit in banning TikTok from government devices.
This makes sense, considering that TikTok may be sharing sensitive information about these Western government devices with the Chinese government. Then on March 7th, 2023, Democrat politician Mark Warner and Republican politician John Thune introduced a bill titled “Restricting the Emergence of Security Threats that Risk Information and Communications Technology Act” or the “RESTRICT Act.”
The Trojan Horse
Keeping in mind that the bill is supposed to be about banning TikTok, White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan issued a statement applauding the introduction of the Restrict Act. He highlighted the widespread support the bill has received from politicians of both political parties. This means there's a high likelihood that it will become law, but it took people a couple of weeks to realize that the Restrict Act has almost nothing to do with banning TikTok.
People started to notice after TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew testified before Congress, who took advantage of the opportunity to shill the Restrict Act. In the days that followed, the internet erupted with outrage over the bill's contents. Dozens of Twitter threads about these details went viral. Popular alternative media publications on both sides of the political spectrum published dynamic pieces opposing the “insanely broad provisions.”
Not surprisingly, there was almost no coverage from the mainstream media; however, there was quite a bit of coverage from the crypto media because the Restrict Act could be used to ban crypto in the US. Many of the crypto headlines about the bill were about an article published by Coin Center, a crypto think tank based in Washington. D.C.
The act specifies that ‘interest’ includes “the provision of the technology or service.” This means that Americans could face fines and jail time for using cryptocurrencies if any mining or validation is done by an entity or country considered an adversary of the USA. And this barely scratches the surface of how ridiculous the Restrict Act is.
Louis Rossmann, a social media influencer and speaker of truth, breaks down the bill in more detail in this video, adding some significant context.
Dissecting The Restrict Act
The bill begins by specifying that all its powers will be given to the United States Secretary of Commerce. For context, the Secretary of Commerce is appointed by whoever happens to be the president at the time. The majority of senior US politicians approve of this appointment. Next, the bill gives some definitions, and some are worth highlighting.
The first is covered transactions; these are transactions in which a foreign adversary has any interest, as mentioned above. The Secretary of Commerce determines which entity is a foreign adversary. The second definition worth pointing out is critical infrastructure, and its meaning comes from the infamous Patriot Act.
The Patriot Act defines critical infrastructure in such a way that it can apply to basically anything that the government sees fit. The third definition is foreign adversary because it actually includes a few examples. It lists China, Cuba, Iran, North Korea, and Russia.
The next section of the bill deals with “Information and communication, technology products that pose an undue or unacceptable risk.” Once again, the Secretary of Commerce determines which information and technology pose a risk to the United States' national security.
The bill notes one risk as anything that could “undermine democratic processes and institutions or steer policy and regulatory decisions in favor of the strategic objectives of a foreign adversary.”
In other words, if you oppose the US government in any way, you're in big trouble. This ties into something in the seventh section of the bill: lobbyists will be allowed to advise the Secretary of Commerce as to which products and services should be labeled foreign adversaries and banned in the US. This would inevitably lead to a monopoly in every industry.
In section 11, the bill reveals exactly what fines and jail time Americans would suffer for interacting, in any way, with an entity deemed a foreign adversary or doing anything that could be labeled a risk to national security. It starts by saying that attempts to evade these laws are illegal and considered code for a crackdown on virtual private networks or VPNs. This was one aspect of the bill that went viral.
For reference, VPNs provide privacy when browsing websites and accessing foreign websites. Louis noted that the US government has been trying to ban VPNs for at least 15 years.
Then when it comes to the actual punishments, Americans can face up to $250,000 in fines for civil penalties. For criminal penalties, fines can be as much as $1 million or up to 20 years in prison and even result in the government seizing your assets—still no mention of banning TikTok.
But wait, there's more. In the 12th section of the bill, there's a sentence that reads,
“Actions taken by the secretary, under this act, shall not be subject to sections 551, 553 through 559, and 701 through 707 of title 5, United States Code.”
Louis looked up the sections in his video, discovering that the above statement means there's no oversight. Specifically, it will not be possible for Americans to submit Freedom of Information requests to understand why the Secretary of Commerce labels some entities as foreign adversaries or some activities as high risk.
As a cherry on top, neither Congress nor the courts can request information. These disturbing details are why the Restrict Act is referred to as the ‘Patriot Act for the Internet’ or Patriot Act 2.0. For those unfamiliar, the Patriot Act was passed in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks in 2001. Its provisions permitted spying on everyone in the name of fighting terrorism.
Notably, the Patriot Act was supposed to be temporary, but in 2013, an intelligence consultant named Edward Snowden blew the whistle on the ongoing surveillance. He also revealed that other governments worldwide are engaged in similarly extensive levels of domestic surveillance.
The Geniune Ban TikTok Bill
The Restrict Act Bill is causing a backlash against all the other bills trying to ban TikTok. This was apparent when Rand Paul blocked Josh Hawley's bill to fast-track his bill to ban TikTok.
In stark contrast to the Restrict Act, the originally titled “No TikTok on United States Devices Act” does actually ban Tick-Tock. More importantly, this bill doesn't have provisions that give the government more power. It's only four sections long and provides specifics about the TikTok ban.
Josh's arguments for banning TikTok are the same as the ones mentioned above. TikTok collects everything. It shares sensitive data with the CCP about journalists and politicians, and this ban has been a long time coming. He also revealed that TikTok has been lobbying against the ban.
Rand's reason for blocking Josh's TikTok ban was that it set a dangerous precedent for the US government to do the same to other apps it doesn't like. He also argued that it goes against the First Amendment (free speech) and that banning TikTok in the US is technically illegal. Rand then proclaimed that people have the ability to know what's good and evil and uninstall the app if they feel it's bad for them. He said that you should fear your own government, not China's, and asked if internet censorship is more dangerous than questionable content.
Josh retaliated by saying that the First Amendment doesn't protect China's ability to spy on US citizens. He also implied that TikTok’s lobbyists had paid Rand to block his attempt to fast-track the ban. This view is highly questionable as Rand is a Libertarian; he is cautious of all governments everywhere. Sadly, all the internet censorship laws being rolled out by governments globally could soon suppress his valid viewpoints.
TheTikTok Ban Debate. Should TikTok Be Banned?
Social media platforms like TikTok could be considered psychological drugs, and they come with unique benefits and risks. Suppose [they] ban this mental drug; the likelihood is that people will still find some way to get their hands on it. In this case, using VPNs and the like. This is a problem because [they] would lose oversight of how this drug is being used, and attempts to crack down on VPNs also wouldn't go over well and would be opposed.
What if this mental drug was allowed? It’s more likely that it will be relentlessly promoted by the individuals and institutions that profit from it. This is a problem because it would lead to excess consumption and give rise to the kind of extreme content that we see on most social media today. Instagram has effectively copied its video flow.
As such, the toxic algorithms would persist due to the perverse incentive structure that comes with legalization. The only thing you would have addressed is sharing user data with the Chinese government. Instead, it would likely be shared with the US government. Remember, the Patriot Act still exists.
The same outcome would occur if ByteDance were forced to sell TikTok to an American company. It would just be replacing the Chinese government with the US government. Sensitive data would still be shared, and given how the US government has been acting lately, that would be the same in practice.
The one thing this debate centers around is the government. An accurate consensus to end the discourse would be to get the government out of social media. Rand Paul is on the right track, but he and many others know it would be impossible while social media remains centralized.
The Solution To Subjugation
Society must be allowed to think for themselves and act accordingly. But we all know this is not what the ‘powers that be’ want. Truth be told, governments have reached a new level of corruption, deep-seated to the core. You may know that leaks from classified documents are emerging and broadcast over the internet, exposing their corruption and agenda.
The censorship industrial complex is weaponizing the leaks against citizens and corporations that do not comply with the globalist’s agenda. The Restrict Act they are trying to pass will serve as the weapon. The Internet is vast and way too sophisticated to be controlled. With the acceleration of technology, cryptocurrency, and decentralization on the move, nobody, not even the elites, can stop the truth from coming out.
The genuine and decentralized entities and social media platforms that have diverged from government-controlled legacy media that support “we the people” are a sanctuary from the evil in this world. There will always be a way to circumvent the oppression [they] are trying to orchestrate. As explained in this video, they are behind all the woke trends and ideologies they want to enforce, destroying our traditional God-given social culture.
Know that things are falling apart for these mega-corporations and so-called rulers as they scramble to keep their secrets and cover-ups hidden from us, dating back decades if not centuries. Be safe in the knowledge that the Divine source, a higher power, is at play to bring humanity into a new golden age.
Editor and Chief Markethive: Deb Williams. (Australia) I thrive on progress and champion freedom of speech. I embrace "Change" with a passion, and my purpose in life is to enlighten people to accept and move forward with enthusiasm. Find me at my Markethive Profile Page | My Twitter Account | and my LinkedIn Profile.
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Gold consolidates but remains on a 'golden cross path' higher – NDR's Tim Hayes
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QE isn't over and will drive gold to $3,000 and Bitcoin to $100,000 in the next decade – Crossborder Capital
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Gold remains well positioned to protect investors from further market turmoil – MarketVector's Yang
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Inflation may moderate, but pension funds aren't taking any changes as they increase their exposure to gold and commodities – Ortec Finance
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