Gold price plunges $30, but analysts focus on Fed pause after May rate hike
Gold tumbled $30 on the day and dropped below the critical $2,000 an ounce level, but analysts said there is enough buying interest to boost prices back up.
Significant volatility in the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields markets took a toll on gold Friday, with June Comex gold futures last trading at $1,989.10, down 1.49% on the day.
The Fed's blackout period also begins this Saturday, meaning Federal Reserve officials won't speak publicly between then and the May 3 FOMC meeting. Markets are currently pricing in an 88% chance of a 25-basis-point hike, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
"It is expected the Fed will raise rates a quarter point next month. And there is a great deal of uncertainty with gold above or below $2,000. I remain bullish at these levels. We will get to a point where the Fed has to pause and make that pivot. And maybe resort to cuts later this year," RJO Futures senior market strategist Frank Cholly told Kitco News. "That will support gold, which will trade at all-time highs between now and the end of the year."
Next week, markets will zero in on fresh macro data, including the U.S. Q1 GDP and PCE price index numbers.
"The upcoming U.S. economic data, especially the GDP data and the price deflator for consumer expenditures, being the Fed's preferred inflation measure, could trigger some price movement," said Commerzbank analyst Carsten Fritsch.
On Friday, markets already digested stronger-than-expected U.S. manufacturing and service sector data, which weighed on gold. The S&P Global Flash U.S. manufacturing PMI advanced to 50.4 in April from March's reading of 49.2. This marked the first move into expansion territory since September.
"Markets were looking for a decline. Also, people thought that the U.S. dollar would be dropping and positioned short. And with economic data moving higher, we are likely seeing some short-covering," TD Securities' global head of commodity strategy Bart Melek told Kitco News. "The Fed is more likely than not to keep that hawkish stance alive. For May, it is on track to do another 25bps hike, and there is a risk of one increase more after that."
Price levels
A decent support level for gold is at around $1,962, but prices can drop below that, Melek noted, adding that it will depend on the economic data and what the yields are doing. “Technically, we see significant support at just above $1,960/oz. However, we see the yellow metal trend at $2,100/oz in late H2-2023,” he said.
Cholly pointed to $1,975-80 as likely to hold next week. He added that "markets tend to overreach in both directions. The $1,975 level is going to be relatively good support. I don't see it getting below $1,965." On the upside, the first hurdle will be $2,025 and then $2,050-60.
After the Fed May rate hike
The May hike looks increasingly likely to be the last interest rate increase, according to Capital Economics deputy chief U.S. economist Andrew Hunter.
"We are increasingly confident that the May rate hike will prove to be the last of this cycle … [And] our expectation that rates will be cut again late this year. That's based on our long-standing view that the economy is headed for recession, eventually dragging inflation down more quickly than the Fed is allowing for."
Gold's long-term bullish outlook is still very much intact. And as soon as markets settle on when the Fed pauses, gold will rally.
"Right now, there is a risk that the Fed overdoes it. When the economy slows, it will be fast. For gold, it is important that a pivot is happening, and there is a significant risk that U.S. central bank won't strictly adhere to 2% inflation," said Melek.
And that means that the Fed will likely ignore elevated inflation and keep adding accommodation, which will sustain gold's bullish trend. "This would imply lower real rates than previous cycles," Melek pointed out. "Central banks and consumers are buying gold as a hedge to preserve their purchasing power."
Investors are also once again realizing that there is more than one reason to own gold, added Cholly.
"The safe haven trade is going to be a factor. And it is not just a hedge against the U.S. dollar and rates. But geopolitical tensions are rising again, especially between U.S. and China," he said. "People are starting to feel like there is enough uncertainty. And we are about to enter a recession. Gold prices will remain strong."
Next week's data
Tuesday: CB consumer confidence, U.S. new home sales
Wednesday: U.S. durable goods orders
Thursday: U.S. GDP Q1, jobless claims, U.S. pending home sales,
Friday: U.S. PCE price index
By
Anna Golubova
For Kitco News
Tim Moseley