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CPI report confirms what Americans already know Inflation continues to rise

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CPI report confirms what Americans already know; Inflation continues to rise

Today the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the CPI (Consumer Price Index) for May. The report confirmed what North Americans have known and been entrenched in; the fact that inflation continues to spiral out of control, and is now at the highest point in 41 years. The CPI rose 0.3% in April. This takes last month’s inflationary pressures to the highest year-over-year (YoY) change in 41 years. This means If you were born at or after 1982 you are witnessing and living through the highest monthly uptick in inflation (YoY) ever.

Just The Facts

The CPI increased by 1% month over month (MoM)

Inflationary pressures rose in both the CPI and the core CPI

The core CPI rose 0.6% taking the YoY inflation level to 6%

The CPI spiraled to 8.6% YoY the largest yearly gain since December 1981

The largest increases in the CPI were food, energy, and housing costs

Forecasts varied by economists polled by Bloomberg, Reuters, and The Wall Street Journal. Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal predicted that the CPI would come in at 8.3% increasing by 0.7% MoM. Economists polled by Reuters also predicted that the CPI would rise 0.7% MoM. Economists polled by Bloomberg News said that the CPI would reveal that inflation is tracking at about the same monthly pace and that the probability for a higher level of inflation YoY was high.

Economists from all three poles got it wrong. Economists polled by Bloomberg, Reuters, and The Wall Street Journal all underestimated the MoM rise in inflationary pressures.


 

The largest contributor to this major uptick in inflationary pressures is the cost of energy which rose 34.6%. However, almost all components recorded record-breaking increases including food costs which rose an average of 10.1%. The cost of housing increased by 5.5%, and commodities as a whole increased by 8.5% all on a year-over-year basis.

What this means for consumers; more hardship ahead

Considering that average hourly earnings fell by 3% in the last year and costs of the goods and services they need have risen dramatically equates to more hardship for low and middle-class Americans. This also means that newly acquired debt (mortgages, new car loans, etc.) will not only be harder to qualify for, and they will be more expensive to service. Existing balances will also be dramatically impacted. Variable-rate credit cards will increase making existing balances more expensive to service.

How the current CPI will affect the forward guidance of the Federal Reserve

The Federal Reserve will hold its June FOMC meeting on Tuesday of next week and conclude on Wednesday. While a minority of economists are anticipating a rate hike of 75 basis points (3/4%) the likelihood that the Fed will get more aggressive on the size of monthly rate hikes is extremely minute. The most likely forward guidance of the Federal Reserve is to continue to raise rates by 50 basis points after the remaining FOMC meetings this year. The question becomes how many 50 basis point rate hikes will the Fed implement, and what will the Fed’s funds rate be by the end of the year?

A roller coaster ride for gold traders

Traders and investors experienced another wild trading session which can be best characterized by its extreme volatility. The chart above is a 10-minute candlestick chart of gold futures. At 8:30 AM EDT gold futures opened at $1850, and by 8:40 AM EDT traded to the low of the day at $1826.50. As of 4:40 PM, EDT gold futures are up to $22.70 or 1.23% and fixed at $1875.60.

As we have been addressing for many months now our belief is been that inflationary pressures have not peaked and in fact will continue to rise as long as the underlying cause continues to be persistent. We have been highly vocal in our opinion that the current forward guidance of the Federal Reserve will not move inflationary pressures lower. At best higher interest rates will contract the economy to such an extent that it will result in a recession. At worst that their actions will be detrimental fueling inflationary pressures higher. The current level of inflation and the current forward guidance of the Federal Reserve will be highly supportive of gold prices moving them higher over the course of the next two years.
 

By Gary Wagner

Contributing to kitco.com

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

Tim Moseley

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Meta’s Metamorphosis: Embrace or Stay Away?

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Meta’s Metamorphosis: Embrace or Stay Away?

By Jason Bodner, Editor, Outlier Insights

 

 

The Switch Is On

Facebook’s parent company, now known as Meta Platforms, is finally making the switch. On June 9, the social media player will officially ditch the FB ticker and instead start trading under META.

This is the final step of Meta’s rebranding, which it announced last October.

The move reflects the company’s aspirations in the metaverse realm… and the company has put money on the line to show how serious its plans are. Meta spent $10 billion on the metaverse last year – enough to drag down the company’s profits.

And the new name hasn’t done the company’s stock any favors yet… The social media giant’s stock has taken quite a hit since its all-time high in September 2021.

In fact, this February, FB shares fell 26% – the largest one-day drop in the company’s history – after Meta forecasted slower revenue growth and some revenue pain due to Apple’s latest privacy changes. It also noted that supply chain troubles and inflation were creating challenges for advertiser budgets.

And like the rest of the market, Meta has seen its stock punished among the overall market pullback we’ve been experiencing this year. The stock is down roughly 50% from its September peak.

 

Meta's Longtime COO Is Stepping Down

Adding further drama to the headlines, last week, news broke that the company’s longtime COO, Sheryl Sandberg, is stepping down… leaving big shoes to fill.

All of this may have some investors wondering whether Meta is stumbling… and could continue its precipitous drop.

Yet just like another FAANG stock – Netflix – the sea of bad headlines and declining share price shouldn’t have us writing off Meta too quickly…

 

Meta’s New Strategy

Meta is making a play for the metaverse. This is a collection of virtual worlds where people can interact, play games, hold business meetings, make transactions, socialize, own property, and more.

And whether or not we entirely understand it, it’s a big trend… and there’s plenty of money flowing into it. Depending on who you ask, estimates say the metaverse could annually generate anywhere from $800 billion by 2024 to $30 trillion by 2030.

So it almost seems natural for Meta to express interest in this new arena. The social media giant is hellbent on connecting the world.

And it’s hard to get more connected than a digital universe inhabited by people from across the planet.

As Mark Zuckerberg said when announcing the rebrand:

Today we are seen as a social media company, but in our DNA we are a company that builds technology to connect people – and the metaverse is the next frontier just like social networking was when we got started.

This shift hasn’t come out of left field either. Back in 2014, Meta bought Oculus VR for $2 billion. At the time, Oculus was arguably the largest virtual reality (VR) pioneer.

And in the time since its Quest 2 headset has garnered 78% of the augmented reality (AR)/VR market.

Meta is betting full force on this virtual experience augmenting real life – much like in the 2018 Steven Spielberg movie Ready Player One.

One day, we may all have an avatar with a different name, a different look, and even a different gender that we use in our favorite metaverse. And Meta’s VR headset will make this experience totally immersive. It’s becoming clearer that we are getting driven towards this future…

 

The Changing Of The Times

Just think about the way kids and younger generations are socializing now. They gather in chat groups and meet through video games, hanging out through these digital mediums.

They're not playing stickball on the block anymore. The world has simply and fundamentally changed.

This means Meta has a ready-made market for the metaverse as this trend develops.

And its previous experience has primed it for success… If anyone can figure out how to monetize goods and services in a virtual world, Meta can.

The Facebook platform alone has over 2.9 billion users across the world. And Meta’s Instagram and WhatsApp each have roughly 2 billion users.

That means it has ready access to a global audience for its metaverse.

Currently, 97% of all Meta’s revenue comes from its advertising segment, which enables its customers to serve ads to groups segmented by age, gender, location, interests, views, and more.

And even in Q1 this year, Meta’s ad revenue grew 6% year-over-year to $27 billion.

In other words, it has its model down to a T. It shouldn't have any issues monetizing the metaverse…

 

Meta Is Poised To Become An Even Bigger Empire

Meta bears looking at the price disruption, negative news cycle, and question mark around Meta’s future have it all wrong…

The company may be down right now, but in the future, this company is going to keep finding new ways to monetize the latest trends.

Meta has demonstrated a strong history of being able to see into the future. When Facebook first came out, many people didn’t see the point in it because there was already Myspace.

Yet Myspace is now a ghost town, while Facebook has grown into a hub of connectivity.

And Facebook still has strong fundamentals holding it up. Its one-year sales growth is over 37%. Its profit margin is 33%. And its debt/equity ratio is just 11.6%.

In simple terms, it has more than enough resilience to weather this storm.

And just like in the past, Meta’s stock will rebound from this dip and more than likely climb higher.

 

New Opportunities Are Emerging For Citizens of The World.

Freedom and democracy may appear to be struggling to stay alive in America, but there may be a knock-out punch ready to be released. The evolution of the blockchain-enabled metaverse is going to enable the 'Citizens of the World' to gain their own Freedom by democratizing power and creating a new world with new rules, new players, and new opportunities. For 99.99% of us, the metaverse will improve our real-world lives through the democratization of power and opportunity.

Along with the major long-term trend of society towards decentralization and smaller-scale organizations, there are new opportunities developing to help 'Preparers' in the cryptocurrency sector. Businesses are beginning to issue their own Crypto Coins that can be traded on Cryptocoin Exchanges.

Markethive.com for example will be releasing its HiveCoin (HIV) in the coming weeks. It has tremendous upside potential that is outlined in a Video by Founder Tom Prendergast, "Entrepreneur Advantage…".

Not only that, if you go to their website and register as a FREE Member, you will be given 500 HiveCoins for "FREE" along with access to several Earning Opportunities and online tools to increase your HiveCoin balance.

Be sure to check it out today – Markethive.com

Markethive

Tim Moseley

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4 Reasons You Should Hold On To Bitcoin Right Now

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4 Reasons You Should Hold On To Bitcoin Right Now

by Editor's Desk 

ecosystem for entrepreneurs

 

Cryptocurrency is a highly volatile market. Values can skyrocket in one month, only to fall flat the next. Even the most prominent Bitcoin is no exception. According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin reached an all-time high of nearly USD$69,000 in November last year but lost more than half of its value by 2022. For that reason, it’s understandable if some Bitcoin holders still have lingering regrets.

Nevertheless, there are several good reasons for people to hold on to their Bitcoins. If you’re planning to get into Bitcoin cloud mining or invest in other related stocks, now may be a good time to do so.

Bitcoin still remains a worthwhile digital investment because of the following reasons:

 

  1. Steep Drops In Value Aren’t Unusual

It’s essential to understand that cryptocurrencies are unlike any other legal tender. For one, they’re decentralized, which means that they aren’t based on a standard policy like physical currencies and aren’t controlled by a regulatory body or framework. Also, the market figures are primarily speculative, based on investor activity and confidence.

These reasons, as some industry leaders say, can also make significant downturns a common sight in the market. They advise refraining from treating short-term drops in market value as the end of the world since cryptos can typically shine long-term. Make like Elon Musk and “pump but don’t dump,” at least for ten years minimum.

An estimated 106 million people own Bitcoin, and experts believe that this buy-and-hold strategy is viable for any crypto. If you’re one of them or about to be, and you’ve done your homework, there may be no need to fear these periodic downturns. Significant upswings often follow such events, and even then, HODL may still be the best option.

 

  1. Holders’ Votes Determine Future Gains

Many Bitcoin holders forget that they can determine the direction the cryptocurrency should go through their votes. Think of it as a referendum of sorts; a majority vote can decide whether to accept or reject changes proposed by the developers. It can get pretty heated like the elections, but this on-chain governance can promote steady growth for volatile investment.

Most eyes are on price movements when it comes to cryptos. But based on a study, the benefits of buying and holding onto Bitcoin can go beyond that. Using the Cost-of-Carry model, the study determined that its spot price is about 5.4% higher than its futures price.

More importantly, being aware of the right to vote on crucial changes can increase the holding benefit by another 5.6%. This figure can be a force multiplier through the years as crypto tech and policies continue to improve, prompting cryptos to adapt. Who wouldn’t be shaken if Bitcoin finally decides to shift to a proof-of-stake model one day?

 

  1. Cryptocurrency Is Banned In China

China’s eventual complete ban on cryptocurrency trading in September last year shocked the crypto community. Back then, many cryptos operated from China because of the low cost of electricity, which crypto mining requires in huge quantities. The move instilled fear and uncertainty in the market, though short-lived.

But if there was a silver lining, the U.S. became poised to become the largest crypto market in the world. As China-based crypto companies started setting up shop stateside, they became an invaluable source of revenue for several lowkey towns. One mining operator says the U.S. is a “safe choice” despite electricity costs not being on the affordable side.

What does all this mean for the average Bitcoin holder? The expansion of the U.S. crypto market could foster competition, and having competitors in the market can force companies to step up their game. Nowhere can this be more evident than expanding data centers and improving mining and hosting operations. If earning at least USD$160,000 in seven months is possible now, what will the future bring?

 

  1. A Crypto Rulebook Is Coming Soon

Current regulations governing cryptocurrencies are piecemeal at best. People are still trying to understand how this decentralized blockchain-based currency works, making coming up with laws hard. However, there have been signs of a crypto rulebook nearing completion.

On a global level, the International Organization of Securities Commissions stated that the formation of a joint regulatory body is likely in the following year, focusing on Bitcoin and digital currencies. Meanwhile, in the U.S., President Joe Biden recently signed an executive order mandating a framework to regulate the crypto market better.

 

Conclusion

At this point, it’s almost impossible to deny cryptocurrency’s growing influence on the existing financial policy. Given crypto’s erratic price movements, it may be easy to be tempted to sell in the short term. But buying and holding at this time can be a sound decision, especially with signs of the investment’s growing viability.

ecosystem for entrepreneurs

Tim Moseley

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Gold silver down as USDX rallies US Treasury yields remain elevated

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Gold, silver down as USDX rallies, U.S. Treasury yields remain elevated

Gold and silver prices are lower in midday U.S. trading Thursday, pressured by a rally in the U.S. dollar index on this day and by U.S. Treasury yields that remain elevated. Gold down-ticked a bit more following the European Central Bank regular monetary policy meeting, at which the central bank kept its policy unchanged but said it will likely raise interest rates starting in July. August gold futures were last down $8.50 at $1,848.10. July Comex silver futures were last down $0.404 at $21.685 an ounce.

Global stock markets were mostly weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are weaker at midday. Trading in the stock indexes has been choppy recently, but the bulls still don’t have the power to start near-term price uptrends.

The other major data point of the week is Friday morning’s U.S. consumer price index report for May. The CPI is expected to be up 8.2%, year-on-year, after a rise of 8.3% in April. Many look for this report to run extra hot, which would be a markets-mover Friday morning.

Gold market is waiting for next week's Fed meeting – StoneX's O'Connell

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices slightly lower and trading around $121.50 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is weaker in early trading. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 3.2%.

Technically, August gold futures bears have the overall near-term technical advantage but the bulls are still working on a fledgling price uptrend. However, they need to show more power soon to keep it alive. Bulls' next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $1,900.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,800.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $1,862.40 and then at the June high of $1,878.60. First support is seen at this week’s low of $1,838.50 and then at the June low of $1,830.20. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

July silver futures bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $23.00 an ounce. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $21.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $22.165 and then at this week’s high of $22.565. Next support is seen at today’s low of $21.535 and then at the June low of $21.41. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

July N.Y. copper closed down 865 points at 436.86 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The copper bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. A three-week-old price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of 457.70 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 420.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 445.15 cents and then at this week’s high of 447.20 cents. First support is seen at 435.00 cents and then at 430.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

By Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

Tim Moseley

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The Z Generation And Cryptocurrency

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The Z Generation And Cryptocurrency

 

In recent years, we have witnessed the emergence of a new generation, who are often referred to as the “Z Generation.” A generation that has only ever known a world with the Internet. They have grown up in a time of rapid technological development and have been raised with ever-increasing political, social, and economic uncertainty. 

 

They are connected, globally-minded, and innovative; they are a product of their time in many ways. Gen Z is very familiar with technology and has always had access to it, and they do not need to be taught or encouraged to use it. They live their lives through their devices and social media, and many have turned to cryptocurrencies as an alternative investment.

Money And Excitement From The Game. 

The young are not discouraged by the endless crashes from cryptocurrencies, and they see it as a means to accumulate wealth and an investment opportunity. 

 

As 20-year-old Paxton See Tow told the BBC, "All my friends were talking about cryptocurrencies, so one day I decided I could get involved too and see if I could make a living." 

All he needed was a phone, and he was only a few clicks away from thousands of dollars in cryptocurrency purchases.

 

Who Are Gen Z?

Generation Z is a group of people born around the mid-1990s until about 2010. So it grew up in an interconnected world at a time when the Internet was practically everywhere. They are used to playing online games and meeting friends virtually, without physical contact.

This new generation was born into a relatively peaceful time. However, a peaceful childhood is undoubtedly compensated for by the events that take place during their adolescence. Recent developments in the world are proof of this. 

The Black Lives Matter movement in America, the riots in Hong Kong, and the Fridays for Future Movement have spread around the world. All these movements were founded or strongly supported by representatives of the Z generation.

The Economist has described Generation Z as a more educated, well-behaved, stressed, and depressed generation in comparison to previous generations.

From Wikipedia:

Other proposed names for the generation include iGeneration, Homeland Generation, Net Gen, Digital Natives, Neo-Digital Natives, Pluralist Generation, Internet Generation, Centennials, and Post-Millennials.

 

They Are Among The Technologies At Home

The development of technology is undoubtedly an important factor that contributed to the definition of Generation Z. 

In his article Digital Natives, Digital Immigrants, Marc Prensky describes Generation Z as a digital native, and they are surrounded by technology from birth. According to Prensky (2001), the younger generation "thinks and processes information significantly differently than its predecessors."

The possibility of quick profits has always attracted young people to invest in risky assets. For Generation Z, it is the significant price fluctuations – and the decentralized nature – of digital assets that are pulling. 

Whether they are cryptocurrencies or so-called unmistakable tokens (NFT), however, no one regulates the sector, which means minimal investor protection.

 

 

The trend for young people to trade in cryptocurrencies and NFTs has intensified during the pandemic. 

"The market has gone through extreme price fluctuations. When you have such fluctuations, you have an opportunity in the market," says Lily Fang, a professor of finance at INSEAD Business School. 

"Young people stayed at home, and it became almost a game. All these factors created the perfect conditions for that."

 

The Thrill Of it All

But in addition to financial losses, addiction is also a great danger. Resh Chandran, a financial educator, said, “The cryptocurrency market never sleeps, so people really swallow it up.”

Andy Leach from an addiction clinic in Singapore says he has experienced an increase in addictions to the thrill of trading crypto and NFTs and confirms Chandran’s sentiments, stating, 

“You can watch the bitcoin rise and fall, the whole process, the roller coaster ride, the highs and lows – all on your phone, 24 hours a day, seven days a week.” 

 

Making Money As A Game

But even the stories of people who lost a lot of money on cryptocurrencies do not seem to discourage young traders. Many of them have encountered digital assets for the first time through games that allow them to obtain NFTs or cryptocurrencies and use them within the game itself or exchange them for cash.

"Every child wants to make money playing games," says a 23-year-old Malaysian businessman who is nicknamed YellowPanther. "This is the dream of my generation."

“In the Czech Republic, the number of wallets with cryptocurrencies is estimated at half a million,” says Binance marketing manager Maya Bersheva.

On the opposite side of the globe, research has shown that one in five Australians believes that crypto is the key to homeownership as confidence in traditional savings dwindles. 

A survey conducted by the Kraken Cryptocurrency Exchange found that a growing number of young Australians are depressed by traditional investment opportunities. Almost a quarter of respondents expressed concern that the value of money in traditional cash savings is declining.

A similar trend is confirmed by other research showing a change from traditional attitudes towards investment and property. More than a third of millennials view crypto assets as an increasingly valid alternative to an elusive investment property, a new survey finds.

Commissioned by cryptocurrency exchange Kraken, it found that around four million Aussies say they are likely to purchase digital currencies in the next 12 months.

The survey, which was conducted by global researcher YouGov, found 21% of Australians are readying to purchase digital tokens if they hadn’t already, including 34% of millennials and 32% of Gen Z.

According to the survey, young Russians consider cryptocurrencies a safe investment. Due to Western sanctions, which increase the pressure on Russia's economy, young Russians consider cryptocurrencies to be a reliable and profitable investment. According to a recent study on the existence of BTC, two-thirds of Russian citizens know.

 

New Research Shows That 40% Of Young People Want To Use Cryptocurrencies For Payments

Cryptocurrencies are rapidly gaining in attractiveness among younger groups, with 40% of consumers aged 18-35 expressing their intention to use cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin, ethereum, and stablecoins to pay for goods or services within the next 12 months.

The report, entitled "Cryptocurrency Demystification: Shedding Light on the Acceptance of Digital Currencies for Payments in 2022," was presented by global payment provider Checkout.com at the Bitcoin 2022 conference in Miami on April 6. It revealed an increasingly positive trend in accepting cryptocurrencies for online payments.

Although digital currency often pretends to be an investment for young people, they often pay the most for its volatility. The "computer generation" perceives crypto as a game that can be easily and well earned.

 

Thanks for reading

                                   Margaret

 

Source:

https://zpravy.aktualne.cz

https://kryptomagazin.cz

https://medium.com

 

 

 

 

Tim Moseley

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Gold market is waiting for next week’s Fed meeting – StoneX’s O’Connel

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Gold market is waiting for next week's Fed meeting – StoneX's O'Connell

The gold market has been trapped in a three-week holding pattern and could continue to consolidate until next week's Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting, according to one market analyst.

The CME FedWatch Tool shows that markets see a more than 90% chance that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by another 50-basis points. The central bank has signaled that it could raise interest rates by 50-basis points at the next two meetings. Meanwhile, markets are pricing in three consecutive aggressive moves.

However, in her latest weekly analysis, Rhona O'Connell, Head of Market Analysis for EMEA and Asia at StoneX, said that gold investors should look past any potential knee-jerk reactions following next week's announcement and focus on the bigger picture.

Gold prices continue to trade around the $1,850 level. August gold futures last traded at $1,856.70 an ounce, up 0.25% on the day.

Even with the Federal Reserve's aggressive monetary policy stance, markets see interest rates hitting a high of 3.50% by the end of the year. However, inflation pressures will remain elevated.

"At present, U.S. two-year yields are 2.7%, while headline inflation is 8.2%, although there are still some dislocations to drop out of the year-on-year calculations. So, while the headlines about rate hikes are likely to generate knee-jerk reactions in the markets, the longer-term view should revolve around persistent negative real rates," said O'Connell.

Although markets continue to price in significant rate hikes during the summer, O'Connell noted that there is still a lot of uncertainty regarding how the central bank's plan to reduce its balance sheet will fit with current monetary policies.

Gold price remains chained to $1,850 as OECD lowers growth forecasts

This month Federal Reserve started to run down its balance by $47.5 billion. By September, it will begin reducing its balance sheet by $95 billion.

"Tightening gives a natural buoyancy to bond yields, and it is certainly possible that this could allow the Fed to be less aggressive in its interest rate hiking than the bond markets have been discounting," said O'Connell. "So, the essential financial parameters remain supportive for gold, but the professional markets are still not committing in any size."

Ahead of the Federal Reserve's decision is Friday's Consumer Price Index report. Economists are expecting the data to show that inflation pressures have peaked. The question remains, though, as to how fast it will take for prices to cool down.

According to consensus forecasts, economists are expecting annual headline inflation to rise 8.2%, down slightly from the March peak at 8.5%. Annual core inflation, which strips out food and energy prices, is expected to increase 5.9%, down from 6.2% in April.

By Neils Christensen

For Kitco News

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

Tim Moseley

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Twitter Needs to Come Clean

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Twitter Needs to Come Clean

by Jeff Brown, editor, The Bleeding Edge

2022 - Elon Musk Started Sales For Twitter! Will Bitcoin and Ethereum Sell? - News Text Area

 

Something Doesn’t Smell Right

The dynamics of the negotiations between Twitter and Elon Musk, concerning Musk’s planned $44 billion acquisition, have not been as straightforward as expected. The deal that was announced on April 25 was a done deal, right?

Not… so… fast…

For weeks, Musk has been trying to understand from Twitter how many fake or spam accounts are actually on the platform. I’m just as curious.

In the past, Twitter has stated that these types of accounts represent less than 5% of all accounts. Yet Musk’s estimates are around 20% of all accounts.

Oddly, Twitter has failed to produce any credible proof that its own estimates are correct. Musk has threatened to terminate the deal if it doesn’t.

The media is suggesting that Musk is trying to back out of the deal. They’re wrong.

Musk knew in advance of the offer that the number of fake accounts was much higher, but he based his offer on Twitter’s public estimates. This was intentional. Had he not, it’s unlikely the offer would have been accepted by Twitter’s board.

The number of real daily and monthly active users (& user growth), and the average advertising revenue that they drive, are the key metrics that determine the valuation of a company like Twitter. If 20% of the accounts are fake, Twitter is materially less valuable than Twitter represented. That would be grounds for Musk to renegotiate on price.

 

 

There Is A Perverse Incentive Here

Twitter has always been motivated to use a methodology to underestimate the number of fake accounts on its platform. After all, the larger the perceived audience, the more advertisers are willing to pay to access Twitter’s data. And more users drive higher valuation, and thus a higher share price.

Given that Twitter has been less than transparent with its data and defensive in its positioning, it smells like Musk is on to something big.

The thing is, Musk will win no matter what happens. 

If Twitter comes clean and opens up its data to Musk, the deal will be renegotiated at a lower valuation… Musk wins. 

And if Twitter continues to refuse to share the data and to obfuscate this issue, Musk has the legal grounds to walk away from the deal. That way, he’s not overpaying for Twitter.

And I seriously doubt that Twitter would prevail in receiving the $1 billion breakup fee… Again, Musk wins.

 

A Breakup Would Be Bad For Twitter

The severity of its problems with fake and spam accounts would be front and center in the argument. More studies would be run to reveal the severity of the problem. In fact, the attorney general of Texas just launched an investigation into Twitter into exactly this problem.

Twitter needs to come clean, and it needs to get the deal done. It wouldn’t be treated well by the free markets if the deal fell through.

And we need it to go through. These negotiations with Twitter have revealed how badly Twitter needs to be cleaned up.

Not only does it need to discontinue its business practices of censorship, banning of real accounts, suppressing healthy debate, and manipulating information; it needs to get rid of these fake accounts that have been allowed to proliferate on the platform.

It has been fascinating to watch these negotiation dynamics play out in real-time, and that wouldn’t have been possible without Twitter.

 

New Opportunities Are Emerging For Citizens of The World.

Freedom and democracy may appear to be struggling to stay alive in America, but there may be a knock-out punch ready to be released. The evolution of the blockchain-enabled metaverse is going to enable the 'Citizens of the World' to gain their own Freedom by democratizing power and creating a new world with new rules, new players, and new opportunities. For 99.99% of us, the metaverse will improve our real-world lives through the democratization of power and opportunity.

Along with the major long-term trend of society towards decentralization and smaller-scale organizations, there are new opportunities developing to help 'Preparers' in the cryptocurrency sector. Businesses are beginning to issue their own Crypto Coins that can be traded on Cryptocoin Exchanges.

Markethive.com for example will be releasing its HiveCoin (HIV) in the coming weeks. It has tremendous upside potential that is outlined in a Video by Founder Tom Prendergast, "Entrepreneur Advantage…".

Not only that, if you go to their website and register as a FREE Member, you will be given 500 HiveCoins for "FREE" along with access to several Earning Opportunities and online tools to increase your HiveCoin balance.

Be sure to check it out today – Markethive.com

Markethive

Tim Moseley

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Gold pricing consolidates above the 200-day moving average

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Gold pricing consolidates above the 200-day moving average

As of 4:55 PM EDT gold futures basis, the most active August 2022 contract is fixed at $1854.40 which is a net gain of $10.70 or 0.58%. In fact, over the last 13 trading days, gold prices have remained and closed above a key technical study that indicates whether or not a stock or commodity is in a long-term bullish or bearish trend; the 200-day moving average. Currently, this key indicator is fixed at $1841.70. At the same time, it must be noted that gold has been trading in a narrow and defined trading range between $1821 and $1875 for over two weeks now.

When viewing gold prices through a Japanese candlestick chart traders focus on the "real body" which is a rectangle drawn between the open and closing prices. In a daily Japanese candlestick chart, the real body represents the open and closing prices for the trading day. The daily high and low are referred to as wicks and do not warrant the same attention as the real body.

Japanese candlestick theory believes that the most important component of a daily candlestick is the relationship between its opening and closing price. They view each trading day as a battle and the outcome of that battle is viewed through the real body of a candlestick to determine whether or not the bullish or bearish faction was able to dominate price action.

Therefore, the fact that over the last 12 consecutive trading days the real body on the daily Japanese candlestick has been above the 200-day moving average is significant. It indicates that a base has been forming at current pricing and although there have been four instances in which the lower wick has occurred below $1841.70 is not as important as the fact that the real body of the candlestick has remained above this moving average.

This puts the first level of technical support at $1840. The first level of technical resistance occurs at $1870 which corresponds to the closing price on Thursday, June 2, and the opening price on Friday, June 3. Major resistance occurs between $1889 and $1891 as these two price points represent the 50 and 100-day moving averages.

It is also important to note that gold prices have remained fairly stable defined by the $50 differential between recent daily highs and lows considering the recent dollar strength. Today’s moderate gains in gold were based upon bullish market sentiment as the dollar index was in essence unchanged on the day.
 

By Gary Wagner

Contributing to kitco.com

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

Tim Moseley

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Bitcoin Infrastructure Provider Mash Closes 6 Million Seed Round

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Bitcoin Infrastructure Provider Mash Closes $6 Million Seed Round

by Shawn Amick 

 

Mash, a Bitcoin Lightning Network infrastructure provider, closed a $6 million seed round to build out its usage-based revenue model for content creators.

  • Mash closed a $6 million seed round led by Castle Island Ventures and Whitecap Venture Partners.
  • The company leverages a usage-based payment model that lets consumers choose what they spend money on, rather than charging flat fees.
  • Users of Mash will have access to a native digital wallet which can be loaded by credit card or bitcoin wallet transfers.

Mash, a payments infrastructure company that leverages Bitcoin’s Lightning Network, has completed a $6 million seed funding round co-led by Castle Island Ventures and Whitecap Venture Partners, according to a press release sent to Bitcoin Magazine.

Mash leverages a new “pay-as-you-enjoy” usage-based model which allows consumers to stream bitcoin directly to the creator of the content they want to enjoy.

“Online content monetization is deeply broken today,” said Nic Carter, general partner at Castle Island Ventures, who joins Mash’s board of directors following the funding. “As a scalable, data-efficient, and high-granularity system, Bitcoin’s Lightning Network is uniquely suited to solving this problem, and Mash employs it wonderfully.

Mash seeks to remonetize the internet by eliminating initial barriers preventing content consumption on applications. It aims to accomplish this goal by removing standard subscription fees, ad revenue schemes that collect data and aggregators that censor, restrict and control platforms in favor of bitcoin.

Usage-based revenue models can allow creators, builders, developers and others with projects that may not possess the know-how to support a Bitcoin ecosystem. This enables users to enjoy and browse content in a way that offers consumers the ability to choose how they spend their time and money within the application.

Mash boasts previews – the ability to try content before choosing to spend bitcoin to consume it. Customers can utilize a digital wallet native to the application, which can be funded with a credit card or with external bitcoin funds, to opt into an auto-pay function to prevent the interruption of content as well as spending controls to prevent overspending.

“Bitcoin and Lightning are transformative, redefining money on a global scale, creating the perfect opportunity for us to change the fabric of all online experiences and unlock fundamentally new business models that reward and incentivize the proliferation of quality, trusted and high-value experiences,” said Jared Nusinoff, founder and CEO of Mash.

Mash intends to use the funds raised for building out and commercializing its Bitcoin and Lightning Network payments platform.

Tim Moseley

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Gold loses early gains as greenback US Treasury yields push h gher

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Gold loses early gains as greenback, U.S. Treasury yields push higher

Gold prices are modestly down in midday U.S. trading Monday, while silver is holding mild gains. Both metals lost altitude in morning trading as the U.S. dollar index rallied to its daily high, while U.S. Treasury yields resumed their upward advance. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is now fetching 3.02%. August gold futures were last down $4.70 at $1,845.50. July Comex silver futures were last up $0.212 at $22.115.n ouces

Global stock markets were mostly up overnight. U.S. stock indexes are higher at midday. Trader and investor risk appetite is a bit keener to start the trading week, amid easing Covid restrictions in China.

Two key data points of the week are the European Central Bank’s regular monetary policy meeting Thursday, at which the central bank is expected to lay out plans for tightening its monetary policy. On Friday the U.S. consumer price index report for May is set for release. The CPI is expected to be up 8.2%, year-on-year, after a rise of 8.3% in April.

Emerging market central banks represent new demand for gold as they de-dollarize – Société Générale

The key other outside market today sees Nymex crude oil prices a bit weaker and trading around $118.50 a barrel.

Technically, August gold futures bears have the overall near-term technical advantage but the bulls are still working on a fledgling price uptrend. However, they need to show fresh power soon to keep it alive. Bulls' next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $1,900.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,800.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $1,861.20 and then at $1,875.00. First support is seen at last week’s low of $1,830.20 and then at $1,825.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5

July silver futures bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, the bulls are working on a fledgling price uptrend on the daily chart. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $23.00 an ounce. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $21.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $22.565 and then at $23.00. Next support is seen at $21.785 and then at last week’s low of $21.41. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

July N.Y. copper closed down 375 points at 443.40 cents today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Prices have backed well down from last Friday’s five-week high. The copper bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. A three-week-old price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 465.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of 425.90 cents. First resistance is seen at 450.00 cents and then at last week’s high of 457.70 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 443.65 cents and then at 435.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

By Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

Tim Moseley

The Artist that came out of the Winter