Investors wait for tomorrow’s CPI inflation report for April

Investors wait for tomorrow’s CPI inflation report for April

Traders and investors are waiting for the release tomorrow of the Consumer Price Index inflation report that will be released right before New York markets open. The CPI will probably be one of the most important economic reports to be released by the government this month. Not only will the CPI be an integral component that will shape and influence market sentiment of individual investors, but it will also help to guide the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy at next month’s FOMC meeting.

The Federal Reserve sent shock waves through the financial markets when Chairman Powell suggested that a couple more ½% interest rate hikes are a likely possibility at the June and July FOMC meetings. As expected, they raised the Fed funds rate by ½ a percent after this month’s FOMC meeting but the announcement by Chairman Powell of possibly three concurrent ½% interest rate hikes was perceived as hawkish and had a dramatic impact on markets.

With some exceptions, we have seen a substantial price correction occur in U.S. equities and in the precious metals. The cost of borrowing capital rising due to the Federal Reserve’s recent and anticipated rate hikes is intended to reduce demand by creating an economic contraction. This had a profound and negative impact on U.S. equities. Since the pandemic corporations in the United States have become addicted to free money and the extended correction is a reflection of the withdrawal pains by corporations as they adjust their forward guidance to reflect the change in the cost of borrowing capital.

Both gold and silver pricing have been in a defined corrective mode since the middle of April. Gold futures traded to a high of $2003 on April 18 and have been losing value for the last four consecutive weeks including this week which is still far from over. Gold futures basis the most active June 2022 contract opened at approximately $1884 and as of 5:06 PM, EDT is currently fixed at $1837.20 after factoring in today’s price decline of $21.40 or 1.15%. Gold has declined 2.49% in the last two trading days.

Typically, upticks in inflationary pressure create bullish undertones for gold prices as it is regarded as an excellent hedge against inflation. However, the current scenario which is a more aggressive Federal Reserve in regards to raising interest rates leads to rising yields in U.S. Treasuries and a strong dollar. Both dollar strength and rising yields have the opposite effect on gold prices creating strong bearish market sentiment as higher Treasury yields reduce investor's attraction to gold as it is a non-interest yielding asset and because gold is paired against the dollar, there is a 100% negative correlation between increased value in the dollar and gold pricing. The net result is that rising inflation took gold prices to $2078 during March (one edge of the sword) and then to its current pricing at $1835 (The other edge of the sword). The drop from $2078 to gold’s current price is a decline of 11.59%. Truly inflationary pressure is a double-edged sword for gold.

The latest forecast for tomorrow’s CPI report is that inflation will drop from 8.5% to 8.1%. The question becomes how will gold prices react if the actual numbers are above the current estimate? While high levels of inflation have historically been extremely bullish taking gold prices higher the anticipation of a more hawkish Federal Reserve will have the opposite effect.

By Gary Wagner

Contributing to

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

Tim Moseley

Cash is the king as financial market melt-down continues taking gold lower

Cash is the king as financial market melt-down continues taking gold lower

The selling pressure continued as U.S. equities continued in their dramatic decline. On March 28, the S&P 500 hit an intra-week high of 4635. What followed was five consecutive weeks of dramatically lower values. If today’s selling pressure indicates the week ahead, we could certainly witness U.S. equities declining over the last six consecutive weeks. In this short period, the S&P 500 has lost almost 14% in value (-13.89%). Today alone, the S&P 500 lost 3.20%. However, it was the NASDAQ composite that had the greatest percentage decline breaking below 12,000. After factoring in today’s decline of 521.41 points, the tech-heavy index closed at 11,623.25.

Gold prices also experienced a sharp price decline and as of 4:55 PM EDT, the most active June 2022 futures contract is down $29.20 or 1.55% and fixed at $1853.40. The only precious metal to gain value on the day was palladium. Palladium futures gained $50.30 a net gain of 2.49%, and are currently fixed at $2073.50.

The dramatic sell-off in financial markets and the precious metals are in response to both the recent action of the Federal Reserve as well as the Fed outlook for the next two FOMC meetings. The Federal Reserve raised the Fed funds rate by half a percent at this month’s FOMC meeting and indicated that it would likely continue the trend of ½% rate hikes at both the June and July FOMC meeting.

This led to the recent sharp uptick in yields in U.S. Treasuries, with the 10-year Treasury note yield trading to a high of 3.2% today before settling at 3.039%. Higher yields in U.S. debt have been highly supportive of the U.S. dollar taking its value higher when compared to other currencies, and that has pressured both gold and silver prices lower.

The sharp decline in U.S. equities and precious metals over the last month can be directly tied to the spiraling level of inflation. This week on May 11, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the CPI for April. Currently, the Consumer Price Index is at 8.5%, the highest value seen since January 1982. The spiraling level of inflation is at the root of the recent rate hikes by the Federal Reserve as they attempt to slow down economic expansion to bring inflationary pressures down.

Forecasts for the April CPI differ with some analysts projecting a leveling off for a peak in inflationary pressures and others projecting that inflation will continue to run hot. According to Forbes, “April’s CPI estimate will be announced Wednesday before the stock markets open. Expectations are for the all-items rate to drop from 8.5% to 8.1%. To hit 8.1%, the month-to-month inflation rate will have to fall from 2.3% in January, 2.6% in February, and 3.8% in March to no more than 1.25% to hit the expected number.”

However, inflation forecasts released in Bloomberg Markets today say that according to a New York Fed survey, “Longer-Term Inflation Expectations Rise.” In an article penned by Alexandre Tanzi, he reported that “U.S. consumers project inflation in three years to be higher compared with a month ago, a potentially worrying sign for the Federal Reserve as the central bank tries to keep longer-term expectations anchored.”

Whether inflation levels continue to rise to higher levels as they have throughout this year or begin to peak, the probability that exceedingly high levels of inflation will continue to be persistent and not transitory as the Federal Reserve had maintained until recently with Chairman Powell and other Fed members saying that longer-term inflation expectations remain well-anchored.

While the Federal Reserve’s action of sharp rate hikes will most certainly lead to an economic contraction, the Fed cannot control the supply chain issues or the war in Ukraine which have been primary forces that have caused inflation to spike higher.

Wishing you as always good trading,

By Gary Wagner

Contributing to

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips


Tim Moseley

National Self-Perception

National Self-Perception

by Jeff Thomas, International Man Communique


National Self-Perception


"This above all: to thine own self be true."

Bill Shakespeare had a talent for phrasing basic truths well, and this quote is no exception. (Even if you lie to others, don’t lie to yourself, or you’re in real trouble.)

Much has been said about the American self-image, going back to its inception as an upstart nation that imagined it could succeed as a republic, as Athens had failed to do. And, indeed, the US encountered the same basic problem as Athens: having once created a republic – a nation in which the rights of the individual are foremost. Maintaining that condition is not only a constant battle but extremely unlikely over time.

As a form of governance, a republic serves its people well; however, since it doesn’t provide its leaders with much in the way of aggrandizement or profit, its leaders are likely to do all they can to degrade the republic into a democracy. Once having accomplished that, they’re likely to do all they can to degrade it to tyranny.

As Thomas Jefferson said, "History hath shewn that, even under the best forms, those entrusted with power have, in time and by slow operations, perverted it into tyranny." He anticipated that, given enough time, the nascent United States would devolve into a tyrannical oligarchy. It has now had that time and has become a tyrannical oligarchy.

It must be said that the US still displays the accouterments of a proud republic, but, at this point, it’s for show only. The inner workings of the US are not that of a republic, nor even a democracy. The US is a quasi-capitalist/quasi-socialist amalgam that’s run by a corporatist oligarchy. Whilst it still has an elected president and congress, those individuals are, at this point, cardboard cutouts who are only allowed to pursue their personal pet projects if they fit in with the unelected Deep State that’s truly in charge.

It’s important to mention that the challenge to the republic began in George Washington’s first cabinet, through regular squabbling between the three cabinet members. But, although the deterioration continued for another hundred years, the US did not abandon its principle to stay out of world affairs for its first hundred years. That occurred by 1900, under the voracious nationalist appetite of one Teddy Roosevelt. The US government began its foray into the empire and never looked back.

Through two world wars, the US wisely held back as European nations beat each other to pieces. Instead, they supplied the combatants with armaments and charged them in gold. In each war, by the time the US jumped in to win the day, their troops were fresh, their armaments were substantial and much of the wealth of Europe had been transferred to them, assuring that they’d prevail at the end of the war. Consequently, they ended the war as the richest nation on earth, whilst the other nations lay in ruins, both physically and economically.



And So Began The Next Era

One in which Americans saw themselves as the "winners" of the wars, as well as the king of the mountain. By 1958, Eugene Burdick and William Lederer had written their novel, "the Ugly American," which accurately presented American diplomats as presumptuous and arrogant. Although Messrs. Burdick and Lederer were both American, they were highly objective and made the effort to see the US and its government as outsiders saw them.

Since that time, the US government has, if anything, expanded upon its presumption and arrogance, declaring in no uncertain terms that it regards itself as the world’s policeman and will enforce its power wherever it sees fit, globally.

In recent decades, it’s demonstrated that conviction, by invading numerous far-flung nations, often for flimsy reasons and, indeed, sometimes for reasons that later proved erroneous. Tellingly, even when the US has been caught destroying a country for a trumped-up reason, the US offered no apology but continued its aggression.

Americans themselves appear to be of mixed opinion on this behavior. Some Americans recognize the presumptuous and arrogant manner of their leaders and decry such behavior and even fear where it may ultimately lead the US. Yet, others parrot their government’s position that a bit of milk may need to be spilled if the US is to "make the world safe for democracy." (They often proudly take this stance, even though invading a country halfway around the world, destroying its cities, killing its people and destroying its economy, only to install a puppet government, can hardly be called democracy.)


How Does The World Outside The US See The US?

Well, many assume all Americans resemble their leaders – dangerous sociopaths, who represent a threat to the rest of the world. Others are more objective and recognize that the American people and the American leadership are not one and the same. This latter group tends to have greater sympathy for Americans themselves, whilst remaining guarded about their leaders.

However, generally speaking, the world at large observes US national behavior and sees the US as a whole as a potential (if not current) threatAmericans who might nod their heads at this statement are likely to think in terms of the Middle Eastern and Asian countries and they would be correct. However, it goes further than this.

As the "world’s policeman," the US government frequently decides to punish nations that fail to kowtow to it by applying economic sanctions. The US then advises its allies that they will be expected to do the same. It is at this point that those who had thought themselves allies of the US say, "Hang on, it may not cost you anything to apply these sanctions, but it costs us a great deal."

As Thomas Jefferson said, "History hath shewn that, even under the best forms, those entrusted with power have, in time and by slow operations, perverted it into tyranny." For example, when the US applied sanctions to Russia, then required those sanctions to be supported by countries in the EU, and some in Europe said, "But we get most of our gas from Russia. If we support US sanctions, they may understandably cut off our gas. Unless the US can replace that gas, our people will freeze this winter." Further, the US government is becoming increasingly pointed in its threats of warfare to those perceived adversaries that they’ve not yet invaded – a development that’s increased the nail-biting by both the governments and peoples of US allies.


So, What Are We To Make Of All This?

Well, such developments are nothing new historically. Throughout the ages, whenever an empire has become like the pawn in the photo above and has come to see itself like a king, arrogance and presumption have tended to have become the rule. As tensions build, old allies attempt to hold their positions, but, when the volcano eventually does blow, they tend to head for the hills. It’s for this reason that, if and when an empire makes the fatal mistake of seeing itself as omnipotent, it learns (the hard way) that, first, it’s not as strong as it presumes and, second, that its allies were not prepared to be sacrificed for the sake of the self-proclaimed king.

It’s for this reason that "Countries fall from grace with amazing speed." This can also be said for empires, and the US presently displays all the behavior of an empire that’s teetering on the brink of its own fall from grace. Economically, politically, and socially, the United States seems to be headed down a path that’s not only inconsistent with the founding principles of the country but accelerating quickly toward boundless decay.

In the years ahead, there will likely be much less stability of any kind.


New Opportunities Are Emerging For Citizens of The World.

Freedom and democracy may appear to be struggling to stay alive in America, but there may be a knock-out punch ready to be released. The evolution of the blockchain-enabled metaverse is going to enable the 'Citizens of the World' to gain their own Freedom by democratizing power and creating a new world with new rules, new players, and new opportunities. For 99.99% of us, the metaverse will improve our real-world lives through the democratization of power and opportunity.

Along with the major long-term trend of society towards decentralization and smaller-scale organizations, there are new opportunities developing to help 'Preparers' in the cryptocurrency sector. Businesses are beginning to issue their own Crypto Coins that can be traded on Cryptocoin Exchanges. for example will be releasing its HiveCoin (HIV) in the coming weeks. It has tremendous upside potential that is outlined in a Video by Founder Tom Prendergast, "Entrepreneur Advantage…".

Not only that, if you go to their website and register as a FREE Member, you will be given 500 HiveCoins for "FREE" along with access to several Earning Opportunities and online tools to increase your HiveCoin balance.

Be sure to check it out today –


Tim Moseley

World Bank outlook for 3 years

World Bank outlook for 3 years

From Wiki:

The World Bank (WB) is an association of two specialized United Nations (UN) organizations that provide financial and technical assistance to developing countries to reduce poverty and improve living conditions around the world.

Already more than two years ago WB warned that the number of people in poverty could increase by as much as 11 million.
It was supposed the financial shock caused by the pandemic will also have serious effects on poverty, which is defined as an income of less than $ 5.5  per day. The World Bank initially expected the region to lift almost 35 million people out of poverty this year, including more than 25 million in China. 
Five years ago in 2017 there was much more optimism, the overall economical growth was supposed 2,9%. In june 2020 the optimism was away: " World Bank announced: World economy down 5.2% this year due to coronavirus"

In April 2022 the World Bank, based in Washington, has lowered its global growth forecast for 2022 from 4.1% to 3.2%. He points to several problems that have a negative impact on the global economic situation. In addition to the aforementioned inflation and war in Ukraine, the World Bank also sees problems in the progressive isolation of the Chinese market from global trade and the creation of the "Eastern Economic Pact" between China and Russia.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF), part of the World Bank, has cut the UK's economic growth outlook from 4.7% to 3.7%. The global growth forecast was also reduced from 6.1% to 3.6%. The IMF sees the main problem as an inefficient approach to raising interest rates, which on the one hand may slow inflation, but on the other hand will slow down economic growth even more.

The war in Ukraine will cause high food and energy prices, which will last three years, the World Bank warned on Tuesday last week. Her statement raises fears that the situation will return during the oil crisis in the mid-1970s, when economic growth was weak and inflation was high at the same time.
According to the World Bank's dark outlook, persistently high commodity prices lasting until the end of 2024 could lead to so-called stagflation, a dangerous combination of high inflation coupled with meager economic growth.

This year, the bank expects energy prices to rise by 50 percent, with the price of North Sea Brent crude being around $ 100 a barrel, the highest since 2013. Compared to 2021, it has risen by 40 percent. In 2023, Brent oil prices are expected to fall to $ 92 a barrel, but that is still more than the five-year average of $ 60.

According to the World Bank, the price of gas will double this year compared to 2021, and the price of coal will be 80 percent higher.

The price of wheat will rise by more than 40 percent this year, which will have a severe impact on developing countries that are dependent on grain exports from Ukraine and Russia.
The World Bank's economic outlook for commodities shows that energy prices have risen the most in the last two years since the oil crisis erupted in 1973. Fertilizer prices have risen the most since 2008. Although the bank says energy and other commodity prices will fall from current highs, they are expected to remain above the current average. They will be above average until the end of 2024, including the previous two years, ie a total of five years.

The question remains to what extent these predictions are reliable. Many experts are more pessimistic and the development of some prices in the first months of this year is alarming.

We can only hope that there will be no significant deterioration and that we will recover from this situation strengthened.

                         Thanks for reading


Tim Moseley

The Worst Decision Investors Could Make Right Now

The Worst Decision Investors Could Make Right Now

by Jason Bodner, editor, Outlier Investor


The Worst Decision Investors Could Make Right Now



Right Now, Investors Are Scared

Inflation is going through the roof, and the Fed just approved a 50 basis-point rate hike at this week’s meeting. Stocks have taken a beating. Russia and Ukraine are still at war. And some people are even beginning to mutter the word recession.

As a result, some readers may be thinking about selling stocks, cashing out, and stuffing money under the mattress. And I get it. I really do. We live in uncertain times, and the media endlessly pushing panic on us doesn’t help.

But don’t go shoving your money into holes in the backyard or even just sticking it in the bank just yet. Because that’s the worst mistake investors can make right now. Let me explain why…


The Worst Mistake

My name is Jason Bodner. I’m the editor of Outlier InvestorI spent over 14 years on Wall Street and another four years in “The City” – London’s Wall Street. And since that time, I’ve started two hedge funds and created a proprietary stock-picking system to track the markets.

That’s given me an inside view of the way the financial system works… and shown me how to identify opportunities most people can’t see. And now I like to use my experience to help everyday investors. That’s the purpose behind today’s topic… because I can see the trap waiting for investors right now.

Despite the temptation to “play it safe” amid the current uncertainty, the worst mistake that you could make right now is to leave your money sitting as all, or even mostly, cash. As of writing, the best “high-yield” savings rate I can find is 0.75%. More often, they’re still sitting at 0.5%. Yet if we have $100,000 invested at even a 0.75% rate… over the course of a decade, we’ll only earn a paltry $7,758 on our cash. (Of course, stuffing your money under the mattress won’t make you a penny in that time frame.)

The truth is, if your money isn’t invested, then it’s guaranteed not to grow – especially with inflation hitting 8.5% as of the last Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. Inflation is the ultimate killer. Without investing, inflation will erode your cash and its buying power.



Consider This…

If inflation stays where it was just last month, then in five years, our buying power would decrease by over 40%. A nearly $10 gallon of gas could become the new normal. Now, I’m not saying that’s going to happen. But with the current trend, inflation is here for the foreseeable future. The Fed can’t raise interest rates to fight inflation too much or too quickly without shooting itself in the foot. The national debt levels are simply too extreme for it to do so. As a result, we need to acknowledge inflation as a deadly threat to our money. So if cash isn’t a good option… what should we be doing with our money right now?


What Should We Be Doing?

Here are a few tips for folks looking to protect and grow their money in the current environment. (Keep in mind – This is money that’s not being used for daily needs or saved up for a new car or vacation. This is the money intended for retirement or other long-term plans.)

First, if you’re working for a company that offers it, max out your 401k – especially if you have an employer contribution match. That’s when employers will match the money you deposit into your account up to a certain percentage. For example, if you contribute 6% to your 401k, your employer might match up to 3%. In that case, it’s basically free money, and you can start pulling from this account at the age of 59½.

Another great way to plan for the future is by putting money in a Roth IRA. These are the “pre-taxed” accounts that you may have heard about before. You pay taxes on the front end when you put your money into the account. But when you pull your money out in retirement – after it’s grown multitudes from your investments – you can do so tax-free. In 2022, the annual Roth IRA contribution limit is either $6,000 if you are under 50 or $7,000 if you are 50 or older.

Over the last 100 years, stocks have gone up 10% per year on average. In some years, the market goes up less. In others, it’s more. But it all averages out to 10% growth per year. If we invest just $5,000 per year from the time we’re 25 until age 65, then we could amass over $2.4 million – and not have to pay taxes on a single cent of our gain if it was held in a Roth.

That’s the power of reinvesting and compounding that growth over time. And like 401ks, investors can also start pulling from their Roth account without penalty at the age of 59½. So if you’re not yet using these two investment vehicles, I recommend getting started now.

The power of investing is an incredible thing… and you’re guaranteed to lose out to inflation if you’re not taking advantage of it. And whether it’s in a 401k or a Roth IRA, investing in dividend stocks of businesses poised to benefit from inflation will trump anything else over the long run.


New Opportunities Are Emerging For Citizens of The World.

Freedom and democracy may appear to be struggling to stay alive in America, but there may be a knock-out punch ready to be released. The evolution of the blockchain-enabled metaverse is going to enable the 'Citizens of the World' to gain their own Freedom by democratizing power and creating a new world with new rules, new players, and new opportunities. For 99.99% of us, the metaverse will improve our real-world lives through the democratization of power and opportunity.

Along with the major long-term trend of society towards decentralization and smaller-scale organizations, there are new opportunities developing to help 'Preparers' in the cryptocurrency sector. Businesses are beginning to issue their own Crypto Coins that can be traded on Cryptocoin Exchanges. for example will be releasing its HiveCoin (HIV) in the coming weeks. It has tremendous upside potential that is outlined in a Video by Founder Tom Prendergast, "Entrepreneur Advantage…".

Not only that, if you go to their website and register as a FREE Member, you will be given 500 HiveCoins for "FREE" along with access to several Earning Opportunities and online tools to increase your HiveCoin balance.

Be sure to check it out today –


Tim Moseley

Here’s why gold is ‘the most confusing’ commodity right now

Here's why gold is 'the most confusing' commodity right now

The latest comments from the Federal Reserve triggered a massive selloff across all risk assets. But why is gold still below the $1,900 level? Here's a look at Kitco's top three stories of the week:

3. Gold and bitcoin jump as Fed's Powell takes 75bps hike off the table in June

2. Bitcoin price plummets, gold gives up gains and stocks plunge in post-Fed trading

1. Gold is 'the most confusing' of all commodities right now, here's why


By Anna Golubova

For Kitco News

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

Tim Moseley

What You Need to Know About the ReferLife Co-Operative referlifeorg

What You Need to Know About the ReferLife Co-Operative


ReferLife Co-Op offers a host of services and products for people who are interested in entrepreneurship and the power of referral marketing. Interested people can sign up for the ReferLife Co-Op at and gain access to its benefits. Here's what you need to know about this cooperative business opportunity. Read on to learn more. We have highlighted a few key features of the ReferLife Co-Op below.

ReferLife Co-Operative
Those who have never heard of ReferLife Co-Operative are missing out on an exciting opportunity to earn a commission while helping people live better lives. Using their system, you can earn up to $200 for every person you refer who upgrades their business package. If you have been unable to earn enough money in your current job, this is the perfect opportunity to make an income that is more than enough to live the life you've always dreamed of.

As a member of ReferLife, you'll have access to a variety of products and services. The ReferLife Marketplace is like an online member mall, with products and services from the Co-Op and participating businesses. You can also earn rewards for referring others to specific businesses. The ReferLife Marketplace is a valuable resource for those who would like to grow their business. But how can you start earning rewards from the ReferLife Marketplace?

The ReferLife Co-Operative system is a powerful, comprehensive marketing platform that gives members access to a number of useful tools. Its digital library is well-organized, and each member has access to their own control panel. This control panel enables members to manage their referrals, track their own activity, and send money to others. Members are rewarded for referring friends and family, which can add up to significant earnings potential.

Services services are designed for the convenience of both referral and co-op marketing professionals. With flexible membership packages, affiliates can build and grow their business through the ReferLife Co-Operative. Affiliates are given a variety of marketing tools and can sell, donate, fundraise, and share referrals to earn more income. They can even make money while helping people in need. If you're interested in joining ReferLife, check out the services and benefits below.

ReferLife Marketplace: This website works like a member mall. It features products and services from the Co-Op. The marketplace also lists special offers from participating businesses. As a result, associates are rewarded for referring others. And the products and services they refer are rewarded by the referrals. That means increased cash flow and business opportunities for members and associates. ReferLife is not only a referral program, it's a true partnership.

Back office
The back office has everything you need to earn money online. The website also includes training for affiliate marketers. You can create your own account and earn commissions by selling products, donating or fund raising. To create a referral program, you can create a profile, select your income level, and manage your payments. You can also view your sales and referral history to see how much you've made in a month.

The back office for the ReferLife Co-Op is easy to navigate. Here, you'll find products and services you can sell to your members and receive rewards in exchange. The system is coded so that rewards are earned for making purchases through your referrals. The ReferLife Co-Op was built for members, so it has a variety of benefits for any organization. To make money online, you can use its affiliate marketing system.


Tim Moseley

Is the Fed facing a credibility problem and why is gold price the ‘punching bag’?

Is the Fed facing a credibility problem and why is gold price the 'punching bag'?

Extreme volatility in the marketplace in reaction to the latest policy shift by the Federal Reserve has many risk-on assets in a downward spiral, but why is gold — a safe-haven asset — once again 'the punching bag'?

Gold failed to hold above the $1,900 an ounce level this week as markets had a very erratic reaction to the Fed raising rate by half-a-point Wednesday while ruling out a 75-bps hike at the June meeting. The precious metal is ending the week down 1.6%, with June Comex gold futures last trading at $1,883.30 an ounce.

The Fed had one of the most highly anticipated announcements this week, and markets showed it, with the Nasdaq reversing all immediate gains and plummeting 5% on Thursday in its worst one-day sell-off since June 2020.

The markets wonder if the Fed has made a mistake – making a recession in the U.S. inevitable, OANDA senior market analyst Edward Moya told Kitco News.

"Wall Street now believes that the Fed is on a set course of delivering half-a-point rate hikes over the next couple of meetings, and at then Jackson Hole, they'll have to decide whether to continue or change course," Moya said. "Many traders thought that the Fed needed to keep all options on the table to aggressively fight inflation. But the Fed is signaling they believe inflation is peaking. There is this fear that possibly the Fed made a mistake and might have to send the economy into a recession a lot sooner."

After stating they are "not actively considering a 75 basis-point hike, the U.S. central bank has locked itself into slightly more gradual tightening. In response, the bond market has resumed its sell-off, pushing the U.S. dollar index back close to 20-year highs, which is bad news for gold, added Moya.

This market reaction could also signify that the Fed is losing its credibility, especially after underestimating inflation as transitory last year.

"My reading is that the Fed faces a credibility problem with market participants. There's concern that the Fed could cause a recession by hiking rates," Gainesville Coins precious metals expert Everett Millman told Kitco News. "Important to consider an inverse relationship between interest rates and unemployment. Unemployment is very low right now. If markets perceive the Fed as willing to let unemployment rise to tame inflation, that is still not a great outcome. There is fear of causing prolonged periods of unfavorable conditions for risk assets."

Uranium price has a lot more runway left and needs to double for supply to meet demand – Sprott's Ciampaglia

There has been massive liquidation of risk assets in the post-Fed trading, with many investors moving into cash, Millman pointed out. "That's why all markets crashed together," he said.

It is important to remember that gold held reasonably well considering how high the U.S. dollar is. And even though gold remains vulnerable to pullbacks, Millman remained bullish.

"The pullback gives gold plenty of room to run," he said. "Plus, the highs of the U.S. dollar index could be near the top. That would be good for gold as it sets up a macroeconomic environment favorable to the precious metal. But prices are still likely to experience elevated intraday volatility."

Gold has been "a punching bag for quite some time," Moya described, adding that until the U.S. dollar comes down, the precious metal will continue to struggle.

"If we continue to see risk aversion across equities and if the dollar appreciation is not as strong as we've got used to seeing, gold should start to stabilize. There is still a big risk that we could have another major move in the bond market, and gold could still be vulnerable to the last major sell-off before things bottom out," he explained.

Key resistance for next week will be the $1,900-$1,920 an ounce, and the $1,850 level will be the first support target, which, if breached, could send prices to $1,800, Moya stated.

Markets will be extra data-dependent next week, and the critical dataset to watch will be the U.S. inflation numbers from April.

One significant risk is the longer the supply chain problems last and the war in Ukraine persists, the more it puts a drag on growth, Moya added. And China is not budging from its zero-COVID policy. "That is difficult for the inflation outlook. I am not convinced that we'll see it significantly ease," he said.

Market consensus calls are expecting the annual inflation in the U.S. to slow to 8.1% in April after accelerating to 8.5% in March.

"Consumer price inflation is the key number out of the U.S. next week and it should hopefully show inflation has passed the peak with the year-on-year rate slowing … and core inflation edging down," said ING chief international economist James Knightley. "Lower gasoline prices will be a big help, as will a drop in second-hand car prices as heralded by data from the Mannheim car auctions. However, it will be a long slow descent to get to the 2% target."

Data to watch next week

Wednesday: U.S. CPI

Thursday: U.S. jobless claims and PPI

Friday: Michigan consumer sentiment

By Anna Golubova

For Kitco News

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips



Tim Moseley

Reversals across many markets while gold remained resilient

Reversals across many markets, while gold remained resilient

This week the Federal Reserve addressed revisions to its current monetary policy in its attempt to reduce the current levels of inflation to an acceptable target. The statement released after the FOMC meeting, coupled with Chairman Powell’s press conference, resulted in extreme volatility in many financial sectors.

Market participants witnessed one of the strongest knee-jerk reactions and complete market sentiment reversal over 24 hours. The initial market sentiment was extremely short-lived as it was followed by a complete turnaround from the initial reaction the following trading day.

The release of the Federal Reserve’s FOMC statement, coupled with Chairman Powell’s press conference, resulted in a major rally in U.S. equities. The Standard & Poor’s 500 gained almost 3%, the largest daily gain in two years. Equities overall experienced the best Fed-day return since 2011. It significantly impacted gold, moving the precious yellow metal higher. Concurrently, the dollar had a significant decline losing almost 1%, and yields on U.S. Treasuries were also significantly declining.

Yesterday market participants had 24 hours to digest the information presented by the Federal Reserve through the May FOMC statement and comments from Chairman Powell during the press conference. This resulted in a 180° reversal from the reaction on Wednesday. U.S. equities declined sharply, declining more than Wednesday’s gains. The S&P 500, which gained almost 3% on Wednesday, declined by 3.56% on Thursday. On Wednesday, 95% of the stocks contained in that index had daily gains. However, on Thursday, over 95% of the stocks included in the index experienced sharp declines.

Extreme price volatility was also evident in the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasuries and bonds. The dollar index had a significant decline of just under 1% Wednesday, followed by gains of 0.96% yesterday. On Wednesday, investors also witnessed sharp declines in U.S. Treasuries yields, followed by a complete 180° reversal yesterday. Yesterday yields on the 10-year Treasury Note advanced to 3.043%, and 30-year Treasury bonds gained 17 basis points yielding 3.176%.

However, it was gold that seemed to have price stability resulting in three consecutive days of higher pricing. As of 6 PM EDT gold futures basis, the most active June 2021 contract is currently up to $7.10 or 0.38% and fixed at $1882.80. Unquestionably this was a week that will be remembered for quite some time, considering the major price reversals on Wednesday and Thursday.

By Gary Wagner

Contributing to

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips



Tim Moseley

Soluna’s Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency Mining 2022 Forecast amp Predictions

Soluna's Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency Mining 2022 Forecast & Predictions


The Soluna team has their finger on the pulse of the crypto industry, working at the intersection of mining, sustainable development, and data centers. With this knowledge, they've provided their 2022 forecast and predictions for crypto. Here are some of the most important predictions:

ecosystem for entrepreneurs

Stronghold Digital Mining (SDIG)

This article examines the outlook for Stronghold Digital Mining (SDIG) in 2022. Currently, the company is making plans to purchase spot-market miners to minimize risks associated with relying on open-market miner purchases. In addition, the company plans to invest in mining equipment from manufacturers that have a strong track record of producing high-quality equipment. Nevertheless, the outlook is not perfect and investors should be aware of certain risks and uncertainties.

In addition to the risk factor, it is important to note that there are no major governments or central banks that regulate virtual currencies. Hence, losses are not insured. It is advisable to hedge your exposure to SDIG through put options rather than direct investment in Bitcoin. However, it's still risky to procure that many mining rigs for a single investment. Thus, it's best to focus on the fundamentals of SDIG before making a decision on the stock.

Ethereum shift to "proof of stake"

With the Ethereum shift to "proof of stake" in mind, the blockchain is moving from its existing Proof of Work consensus mechanism to a new one. The switch promises to use 99% less energy and allow the Ethereum network to scale, allowing it to reach up to 100,000 transactions per second. While this transition will likely take some time, the change is already boosting the price of ether, as the new system will make participating in the Ethereum network more convenient for everyday users.

Earlier this month, CEO of Uber said the company is considering accepting crypto payments in the future. The company is joining a growing list of other large tech companies to get involved in the space. The shift to proof-of-stake protocol is expected to free Ethereum from the tight correlation with Bitcoin. Beiko didn't respond to requests for comment. Ethereum's market capitalisation is less than half that of Bitcoin. However, it represents 60 per cent of the crypto market.

ecosystem for entrepreneurs

Bitcoin price may reach $1M by 2025

According to market analysts, the price of Bitcoin will hit $1 million by 2025. However, most of these predictions are bullish. Bitcoin is a decentralized digital currency with a maximum limit of 21 million coins. As a result, a network of miners processes each transaction using vastly specialized computers. Bitcoin proponents say the network is the strongest computer network in the world. Despite its lack of centralized control, Bitcoin has the potential to skyrocket in price.

A panel of 33 market analysts from Finder predicted that the price of bitcoin will hit $192,800 by 2025. Among the prices they predicted were $206,351 by October 2021 and $406,400 by the year 2030. However, these predictions aren't backed by historical data and are just predictions. The price of bitcoin will likely rise dramatically before reaching its ultimate goal – to replace all fiat currencies.

ETH staking could become a "prime rate" of the crypto asset market

As the crypto asset market becomes more popular, ETH staking will likely continue to enjoy exceptional potential. The current staking contract, Ethereum 2.0, has 8,699,604 ETH, representing 7.32% of the total supply. It is estimated to remain locked for one year. The ETH price continues to outperform BTC on risky moves, but investor confidence may be waning into the future. ETH's price action is likely to depend on the risk environment, its use in the DeFi ecosystem, and its role in emerging Web 3.0 themes.

Staking ETH may become a "prime rate" of cryptocurrency assets by 2022, as its value increases. With the rise of the cryptocurrency market, the number of people who own ETH is growing rapidly. However, the amount of ETH in circulation is still far from the USD 3 trillion that it was last year. Ethereum alone now holds more than USD 100 billion.

Tim Moseley

The Artist that came out of the Winter