Commerzbank lowers gold price target to $1,800 and sees potential for higher prices by 2023
The third quarter has been disappointing for many gold investors as the precious metal has been in a sharp downtrend and recently has been unable to hold any gains above $1,800 an ounce.
Although gold has struggled in the face of rising interest rates and surging momentum in the U.S. dollar, Carsten Fritsch, precious metals analyst at Commerzbank, said in a report Monday that the price action is doing a lot better than one would expect given the current environment.
Although gold prices have dropped, prices have held initial support at around $1,700 an ounce as the Federal Reserve embarked on an extraordinary tightening cycle. So far this year, the U.S. central bank has raised interest rates by 2.25%, driving real yields higher and boosting the U.S. dollar to a 20-year high.
"Despite all the complaining about the disappointing gold price development in recent months from an investor's point of view, it should not be forgotten that gold is still the best performer this year compared to other asset classes," Fritsch said in the report.
"Gold is currently trading 4.5% below the level at the beginning of the year. In the case of U.S. bonds, the corresponding loss amounts to 9.5% due to the sharp rise in yields, if the T-Note future is used as a reference. The equity markets have lost around 14% since the beginning of the year as measured by the MSCI World, the bitcoin price even more than 50%," Fritsch added.
While the German bank sees some resilient strength in the gold market, they are still downgrading their gold price forecast for the rest of the year. In the report, Commerzbank said that it sees gold prices ending the year at around $1,800 an ounce, down from the previous forecast of $2,000.
"In the short term, gold could come under pressure again because the U.S. Federal Reserve is likely to raise interest rates further until the end of the year," Fritsch said.
However, Commerzbank isn't completely giving up on gold. The bank said that it is a little too early to look for a recovery, but they see the potential for higher prices by the start of 2023.
"As soon as it becomes apparent that the rate hike cycle is coming to an end, the gold price should start to rise. This is likely to be the case in the fourth quarter," Fritsch said. "Like the market, we expect the Fed to cut rates again next year as the U.S. economy slides into recession."
Commerzbank sees gold prices ending 2023 at $1,900 an ounce, down from the previous estimate at $2,000 an ounce.
The German bank is also lowering its silver price target to $20.50 an ounce, down from the previous forecast of $24 an ounce. For 2023, Fritsch said that prices could rise to $25 an ounce, down from the prior estimate of $27 an ounce.
Fritsch noted that the silver market has been hit with significant bearish sentiment as investors flee the market.
"Since the beginning of the year, the holdings of silver ETFs tracked by Bloomberg have fallen by more than 3,000 tons. This corresponds to 1.5 months of global mine production that is additionally available as supply. Since the beginning of July, the outflows amount to more than 1,900 tons," he said.
However, Fritsch added that by 2023 silver should see more demand due to the global push for green alternative energy.
Finally, Commerzbank is also lowering its year-end price target for platinum to $1,000 an ounce, down from $1,050 an ounce.
"Since the beginning of the year, these have now totalled more than 400 thousand ounces. The platinum market could therefore be more oversupplied this year than previously expected," Fritsch said.
Credit Suisse downgrades its average gold price forecast to $1,725
by Jeff Thomas, editor, International Man Communique
In 1796, the US issued its first quarter dollar.
On the obverse, it displayed the image of Lady Liberty, and above the image (in case there was any doubt about the message), the word "LIBERTY" was prominently displayed. The coin was minted from silver (90%) and copper (10%).
Over the years, the design of the US quarter changed repeatedly. Then, in 1932, a new quarter (image #1, above) was issued that featured the image of American Founding Father George Washington. As before, the word "LIBERTY" appeared above his image—a continuing reminder of the primary principle upon which the US was founded. And as before, the coin was minted from silver (90%) and copper (10%).
So far, so good.
The quarter remained unchanged until 1965. The new quarter (image #2) was the same in every way, except that it contained no silver whatsoever. It now contained only copper and nickel. (At today’s metals prices, the intrinsic value of the quarter dropped suddenly to 1% of its previous value.)
Conceptually, the American people should have been outraged, as they had effectively lost the ability to hold real, redeemable wealth. The coin they would hold in the future would not have the value of silver; it would be a mere token. The new coin represented no more than a "promise of value" on the part of the US government.
However, there was almost no outcry. The reason? Because the new quarter still retained the same purchasing power it had when it was made of silver. As long as the quarter was perceived by all and sundry as having value for the purpose of payment, most Americans were content to accept the switch.
In 1999, the quarter’s design did change (image #3). The word "LIBERTY" was removed from above the head of Washington and in its place were the words, "UNITED STATES OF AMERICA." It might have been argued at the time that those words needed to be on the quarter to remind holders of the coin what nation had issued it. However, those words had always appeared on the reverse of the Washington quarter, and I recently saw a 1999 quarter that had those words on both sides—a very odd redundancy for a coin, which, by its very size, has little space to spare, even for essential information.
The word "LIBERTY" was still in evidence on the new coin, but it had been moved lower down, beneath Washington’s chin, and was now much smaller.
It would seem one reason for the change in design had been to diminish the importance of Liberty as an American concept. (Later, when the "states" quarters were issued, the Mint dropped the "UNITED STATES OF AMERICA" on the reverse and retained it on the obverse.)
In any case, as in 1965, there was no outcry from the American people—again, for the same reason as before. The coin retained the same purchasing power, so the change in design was simply not an issue.
Some citizens may have a different slant on the subject. It may be argued that the two changes in the American quarter reflect the changes in the US as a nation. There can be no doubt that the value of US currency, in general, has been dramatically reduced in purchasing value since 1932. It is also true that none of the US currencies (whether paper notes or metal coins) have any true, redeemable value. They have only perceived value, which is subject to dramatic change, depending on economic conditions. (In the last century, the un-backed currencies of some twenty nations have been rendered valueless, as a result of hyperinflations.)
In 1796, when the quarter was first minted, the quarter was in itself wealth. The paper banknotes that came later (beginning in 1861) were initially fiat (during the war) but were quickly replaced by notes backed by, and redeemable for, silver. The redemption of US banknotes for silver bullion ended in 1968.
Today, if a US citizen seeks to build up his wealth, he cannot do so by holding the currency of his country. All US currency, whether paper or metal, only represents his faith in the currency to retain its value, which it is unquestionably losing. Therefore, merely by dealing every day in US currency, the holder is paying a hidden tax, and his wealth is diminished accordingly.
As to US Liberty, many would agree that that, too, has been devalued, particularly after 1999. Laws such as the Patriot Act of 2001, its expansion in 2011, and the National Defense Authorization Act of 2011 have stripped Americans of their constitutional rights on a wholesale basis.
There is an old saying that, "The best place to hide something is in plain view." If true, a reminder of what the US citizen has lost may be found in plain view, merely by reaching into his pocket and examining his change.
Unfortunately, there's little any individual can practically do to change the trajectory of these trends in motion.
The best you can and should do is to stay informed so that you can protect yourself in the best way possible, and even profit from the situation. We think everyone should own some physical gold.
Gold is the ultimate form of wealth insurance. It has preserved wealth through every kind of crisis imaginable. It will preserve wealth during the next crisis, too.
New Opportunities Are Emerging For Citizens of The World.
Freedom and democracy may appear to be struggling to stay alive in America, but there may be a knock-out punch ready to be released. The evolution of the blockchain-enabled metaverse is going to enable the 'Citizens of the World' to gain their own Freedom by democratizing power and creating a new world with new rules, new players, and new opportunities. For 99.99% of us, the metaverse will improve our real-world lives by democratizing power and opportunity.
Along with the major long-term trend of society towards decentralization and smaller-scale organizations, there are new opportunities developing to help 'Preparers' in the cryptocurrency sector. Businesses are beginning to issue their own Crypto Coins that can be traded on Cryptocoin Exchanges.
Markethive.com will release its HiveCoin (HIV) in the coming weeks. It has tremendous upside potential that is outlined in a Video by Founder Tom Prendergast, "Entrepreneur Advantage…".
Not only that, if you go to their website and register as a FREE Member, you will be given 500 HiveCoins for "FREE" along with access to several Earning Opportunities and online tools to increase your HiveCoin balance.
Bitcoin price has hit bottom – coldest days of Crypto Winter are over – Ran Neuner and Steven Sidley
With Bitcoin’s price bottoming below $20K in June, the worst days of the Crypto Winter are over, according to Ran Neuner and Steven Sidley, who joined Kitco’s Editor-in-Chief and Lead Anchor, Michelle Makori, in a panel discussion.
“We’ve hit the crypto bottom,” said Neuner, Host of Crypto Banter, a popular crypto-themed podcast. “Crypto suffered one of the biggest liquidations we’ve ever seen. We had the LUNA ecosystem collapse, which is a $100 billion ecosystem, which caused a cascade of liquidations throughout the market.”
Sidley, Professor at the University of Johannesburg and Head of the university’s Blockchain and CryptoVerse Research Group, agreed with Neuner, albeit with a few caveats.
“There are a couple of things still staring us in the face,” cautioned Sidley, who is also a best-selling author and a Director at Bridge Capital Future Advisory. “China deciding to invade Taiwan is a possible Black Swan event. If Russia decides to step up its aggression all the way to nuclear weapons, that’s another Black Swan event… but in most respects, I agree with Ran that we’re at the end of [The Crypto Winter.]”
A Black Swan event is an unexpected occurrence that has a significant impact on markets.
Crypto Winter thawing
Neuner, who is also the Co-founder and CEO of Onchain Capital, used the 200-week moving average of Bitcoin to support his claim that the cryptocurrency would continue its upward rally. The 200-week moving average is the longest measure of Bitcoin’s upward trend. Bitcoin’s spot price has only moved below this metric three times: in 2015, in 2020, and in 2022.
“Every time [Bitcoin’s spot price hit the moving-average], it has rebounded and given investors huge returns,” said Neuner. “The times it has gone under the 200-week moving average have been Black Swan events.”
However, Neuner said that investors should watch the “macro environment,” which could impact Bitcoin’s price.
“For as long as the macro environment continues to perform, I think we’ll be okay,” he said. “The probabilities are about 50-50 as to whether the Fed will increase [rates] by 50 basis points or 75 basis points, and I think that the market has already priced those rate increases in. In terms of whether we’re at the bottom or not, I’m confident to say that we’ve probably hit the bottom in crypto, unless another Black Swan event happens… but I think we’ve had the coldest days of winter.”
Bitcoin adoption
Asset-management firm BlackRock recently announced a partnership with Coinbase to provide institutional clients with Bitcoin access. However, this seemed to have no significant impact on Bitcoin’s price.
“In a bear market, the market does not respond to good news, and we know that we’re very much that we’re currently in a bear market,” said Neuner. “We thought that the BlackRock news would move the market, and it didn’t at all.”
Sidley added, “The BlackRock announcement was very profound. This [firm has] $10 trillion in assets that they manage.”
However, he said that Bitcoin’s price did not move after the BlackRock announcement because of unfavorable regulatory developments.
“There’s a regulatory pushback,” said Sidley. “Whereas BlackRock may say, ‘we’re going to give our clients exposure to [Bitcoin],’ everybody’s now looking to the other side, which is the regulators who are trying to control it and slow this thing down.”
To find out Neuner and Sidley’s forecasts for Bitcoin’s price, watch the video above.
2022 Q1 Survey Reveals Over Half of South Africans Know Little or Nothing About Cryptocurrency
In many countries, years of ultralow interest rates coupled with the government stimulus unleashed during the pandemic sent cash flows into riskier investments, like tech stocks and crypto. Now some of those initiatives are winding down, and the potential for inflation to weigh on economic growth has many exploring safer investments than they'd gone for in the past.
Over the years, cryptocurrencies have become a viable way of conducting transactions anytime and anywhere. This is possible through users' ability to transact with each other directly without any intermediaries. Based on the value of their virtual money, cryptocurrencies are also referred to as money. South Africans use cryptocurrencies, but many still don't know much about them. The cryptocurrency space has been left to develop organically in South Africa, with no clear-cut awareness to encourage maximum adoption.
The Merchant Consumer Survey revealed that 53% of South African participants knew little about cryptocurrencies. Interestingly, nearly half of respondents said they would be more open to the cryptocurrency space if local banks offered such services. The report noted a considerable growth opportunity for crypto trading platforms on the African Continent. In South Africa, local exchanges lead the way, in stark contrast to the rest of the continent, where global exchanges lead in market share.
According to the report from Merchant, a global telemarketing firm:
Only 14% of South Africans have any significant knowledge of the cryptocurrency industry.
23% of participants remained neutral.
The vast majority (53%) said they had limited or no knowledge of the matter.
18-24-year-olds have higher literacy rates than any other demographic group, including 25-42-year-olds.
The survey also noted that cryptocurrency adoption in South Africa could be boosted if domestic banks embrace the asset class and offer educational programs to users.
Due to technological advancement, cryptocurrency is being used to a certain extent in South Africa. Businesses can accept and pay their employees using cryptocurrency without affecting their current cash flow. Additionally, some South Africans use cryptocurrency as a hedge against inflation. By purchasing cryptocurrencies when prices are low and selling them when prices rise, users earn more money than they spent on their investments. Through this strategy, they become financially independent from traditional banks that charge high-interest rates on loans.
“There is a real opportunity for banks to get involved in cryptocurrency as it begins to really take off on the continent, rather than waiting until it is more established – by when consumers are likely to have a preferred platform or partner who they have built that trust with.”
– Group CRO, Merchants
Another recent report by Bitget Exchange, Boston Consulting Group, and Foresight Ventures found that South Africa has the continent’s most significant cryptocurrency market, as evidenced by its more advanced financial infrastructure and fiat-to-crypto payment rails.
The report noted a considerable growth opportunity for crypto trading platforms on the African Continent.
On-platform exchange services, such as Coinbase and Gemini, have been less competitive in the African market. However, with few existing exchanges offering access to fiat currencies or local payment methods, it might be challenging for them to thrive in that market.
In Summary
Despite the benefits that cryptocurrencies offer users, including lower transaction fees, increased financial security, and uncomplicated business operations, few people know much about them in South Africa at present. As awareness rises among local users, more will start investing in cryptocurrency and allowing themselves greater economic freedom over time.
Cryptocurrency transactions help to remove the procedural bottlenecks that plague traditional banking and financial services. Fearing a collapse of the banking industry or arbitrary appropriation of money by the government, Africans who live in politically unstable countries could be attracted to cryptocurrency.
Generally, it is expected that there will be an increase in cryptocurrency awareness amongst users in Sub-Saharan Africa over the coming years. This would drive the adoption of cryptocurrencies within the region.
About: Prince Chinwendu. (Nigeria) Rapid and sustainable human growth is my passion, and getting a life-changing opportunity into the hands of people is my calling. Empowering entrepreneurs provides me with enormous gratification. Find me at my Markethive Profile Page | My Twitter Account | and my LinkedIn Profile.
The interesting thing about markets: just when you think you have figured them out, they do the opposite. Just six trading days ago, the precious metals looked ready to run; we reversed our silver position to long. Since the peak on Aug. 12, the metals have closed lower every day.
Therefore, the price action is important. It gives you a better handle on markets and stops you from chasing the news cycle. There are many reasons that gold, silver, and platinum should be rallying, but they are not. The price action told us that there is no hurry to be a buyer.
Markets have many factors that make them move, but one that is never important is the news cycle. Any news that would drive markets is always priced in before you see it. The flow of information is well ahead of reported news. Do yourself a favor, quit guessing or trying to outsmart the market and let price be your guide.
Precious metals should be owned on a physical basis with capital that is not needed tomorrow or anytime soon. Trading should be done with paper. Knowing that, we can trade either side without emotions.
In all markets, price action determines what will happen in the next day, week, or month. Keep the two strategies separate. The worst trade anyone can make is turning a trade into an investment hoping for a way out. Traders must learn to take their losses and move on to the next trade.
Patience, discipline, and money management always win the day. Let the map of the markets show you the way.
The Truth About Climate Change:
There Is NO Climate Emergency
Large frameworks of science that don’t fit the narrative on climate change or global warming have been ignored by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the Conference of the Parties (COP), and self-interested scientists paid by taxpayers. A formidable industry has been subsidized, creating intermittent, unreliable wind and solar electricity based on unsubstantiated science.
The same charlatans now want subsidized hydrogen, costly inefficient electric vehicles, subsidized mega-batteries, and other appallingly expensive tried and failed schemes that impoverish people, create unemployment, transfer wealth and enrich China. Many parts of the world like Germany, Texas, California, and the UK have already had a glimpse of the Net-Zero CO2 by 2050 policy with blackouts, astronomically high electricity costs, and hundreds of deaths.
The sentiments above are from Professor Ian Plimer, a geologist and author in earth science who edifies his thoughts in his latest book, “Green Murder.” He’s part of the global network Climate Intelligence (CLINTEL), an independent foundation that operates in the fields of climate change and climate policy. It consists of over 1100 scientists and professionals that want to get the message out that there is no climate emergency.
Furthermore, in 2019, the unelected, unaccountable, transnational World Economic Forum (WEF), which is also the main driver behind The Great Reset, gave 16-year-old student Greta Thunberg a public stage, rendering her a poster child for climate change. Greta’s comments such as “I want you to panic”… “Our house is on fire,” terrified millions of children and adults worldwide.
But in a testimony to the US Congress on April 21, 2021, Greta stated that there is “no science” behind her comment; it was just a metaphor. At no point has WEF or its media-mogul trustees apologized for foisting fear on world citizens.
“Crickets” From WEF
CLINTEL, the climate intelligence think tank based in The Netherlands, sent a letter to Borge Brende, President of the WEF, in January 2020, calling for engagement on the issue of the claimed “climate emergency,” writing:
“Despite heated political rhetoric, we urge all world leaders to accept the reality that there is no climate emergency. There is ample time to use scientific advances to continue improving our society. Meanwhile, we should go for adaptation; it works whatever the causes [of climate change] are.”
“We also invite you to organize with us a constructive, open meeting between world-class scientists on both sides of the climate debate. Such an event complies with the sound and ancient principle that all pertinent parties should be fully heard.”
There has been no response from the WEF to date. The WEF’s unwillingness to engage with CLINTEL in an open scientific debate on climate change suggests the WEF is not acting with “moral and intellectual integrity is at the heart of everything it does,” as it claims.
On Dec. 24, 2021, CLINTEL also issued a letter to the President of Switzerland, concerned about the ‘host state’ status that Switzerland had bestowed on the World Economic Forum in January 2015. The Paris Agreement was signed that year, and it appears that WEF has adopted the mission to push the Club of Rome’s Planetary Emergency agenda.
The WEF’s 2006 Global Risks report.pdf featured oil price shock and pandemic as two severe global risks. However, by the 2020 report, WEF had removed both from the list of risks and replaced them with climate change.
Now the world is experiencing a global oil price shock, an energy crisis, and is struggling to recover from a pandemic. Millions of people face energy poverty and famine due to skewed energy investment markets, much of it driven by WEF trustees like Mark Carney demonizing vital energy.
Good vs. Evil
According to CLINTEL, climate science should be less political, while climate policies should be more scientific. In particular, scientists should emphasize that their modeling output is not the result of magic: computer models are human-made. What comes out depends entirely on what theoreticians and programmers have put in: hypotheses, assumptions, relationships, parameterizations, stability constraints, etc. Unfortunately, in mainstream climate science, most of this input is undeclared.
To believe the outcome of a climate model is to believe what the model makers have put in. This is precisely the problem of today’s climate discussion to which climate models are central. Climate science has degenerated into a discussion based on beliefs, not on sound self-critical science. We should free ourselves from the naïve belief in immature climate models. In the future, climate research must give significantly more emphasis to empirical science.
Below is the World Climate Declaration (WCD) CLINTEL has published that fall on deaf ears as far as the bureaucrats are concerned. This declaration is based on scientific fact and must be disseminated worldwide so that people are aware and not deceived by evil rhetoric, trickery, alarmist literature, and the greedy agenda of the elite few.
There Is No Climate Emergency
A global network of over 1100 scientists and professionals has prepared this urgent message. Climate science should be less political, while climate policies should be more scientific. Scientists should openly address uncertainties and exaggerations in their predictions of global warming, while politicians should dispassionately count the real costs as well as the imagined benefits of their policy measures.
Natural as well as anthropogenic factors cause warming The geological archive reveals that Earth’s climate has varied as long as the planet has existed, with natural cold and warm phases. The Little Ice Age ended as recently as 1850. Therefore, it is no surprise that we are now experiencing a period of warming.
Warming is far slower than predicted The world has warmed significantly less than predicted by IPCC on the basis of modeled anthropogenic forcing. The gap between the real world and the modeled world tells us that we are far from understanding climate change.
Climate policy relies on inadequate models Climate models have many shortcomings and are not remotely plausible as global policy tools. They blow up the effect of greenhouse gases such as CO2. In addition, they ignore the fact that enriching the atmosphere with CO2 is beneficial.
CO2 is plant food, the basis of all life on Earth CO2 is not a pollutant. It is essential to all life on Earth. Photosynthesis is a blessing. More CO2 is beneficial for nature, greening the Earth: additional CO2 in the air has promoted growth in global plant biomass. It is also good for agriculture, increasing the yields of crops worldwide.
Global warming has not increased natural disasters There is no statistical evidence that global warming is intensifying hurricanes, floods, droughts, and suchlike natural disasters or making them more frequent. However, there is ample evidence that CO2-mitigation measures are as damaging as they are costly.
Climate policy must respect scientific and economic realities There is no climate emergency. Therefore, there is no cause for panic and alarm. We strongly oppose the harmful and unrealistic net-zero CO2 policy proposed for 2050. If better approaches emerge, and they certainly will, we have ample time to reflect and re-adapt. The aim of global policy should be “prosperity for all” by providing reliable and affordable energy at all times. In a prosperous society, men and women are well educated, birth rates are low, and people care about their environment.
Epilogue The World Climate Declaration (WCD) has brought a large variety of competent scientists together from all over the world*. The considerable knowledge and experience of this group are indispensable in reaching a balanced, dispassionate, and competent view of climate change.
From now onward, the group is going to function as the “Global Climate Intelligence Group.” The CLINTEL Group will give solicited and unsolicited advice on climate change and energy transition to governments and companies worldwide.
* It is not the number of experts but the quality of arguments that counts.
World Climate Declaration AMBASSADORS NOBEL LAUREATE PROFESSOR IVAR GIAEVER NORWAY/USA
PROFESSOR GUUS BERKHOUT / THE NETHERLANDS
DR. CORNELIS LE PAIR / THE NETHERLANDS
PROFESSOR REYNALD DU BERGER / FRENCH-SPEAKING CANADA
BARRY BRILL / NEW ZEALAND
VIV FORBES / AUSTRALIA
PROFESSOR JEFFREY FOSS † / ENGLISH SPEAKING CANADA
JENS MORTON HANSEN / DENMARK
PROFESSOR LÁSZIÓ SZARKA / HUNGARY
PROFESSOR SEOK SOON PARK / SOUTH KOREA
PROFESSOR JAN-ERIK SOLHEIM / NORWAY
SOTIRIS KAMENOPOULOS / GREECE
FERDINAND MEEUS / DUTCH-SPEAKING BELGIUM
PROFESSOR RICHARD LINDZEN / USA
HENRI A. MASSON / FRENCH-SPEAKING BELGIUM
PROFESSOR INGEMAR NORDIN / SWEDEN
JIM O’BRIEN / REPUBLIC OF IRELAND
PROFESSOR IAN PLIMER / AUSTRALIA
DOUGLAS POLLOCK / CHILE
DR. BLANCA PARGA LANDA / SPAIN
PROFESSOR ALBERTO PRESTININZI / ITALY
PROFESSOR BENOÎT RITTAUD / FRANCE
DR. THIAGO MAIA / BRAZIL
PROFESSOR FRITZ VAHRENHOLT / GERMANY
THE VISCOUNT MONCKTON OF BRENCHLEY / UNITED KINGDOM
DUŠAN BIŽIÄ / CROATIA, BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA, SERBIA, AND MONTE NEGRO
Editor and Chief Markethive: Deb Williams. (Australia) I thrive on progress and champion freedom of speech. I embrace "Change" with a passion, and my purpose in life is to enlighten people to accept and move forward with enthusiasm. Find me at my Markethive Profile Page | My Twitter Account | and my LinkedIn Profile.
34% of entrepreneurs pray several times a day, compared with 27% of non-entrepreneurs.
Entrepreneurs Feel Closer to God Than the Rest of Us Do
The study: Mitchell J. Neubert and three colleagues at Baylor University investigated the connection between faith and the propensity to start a business, by examining data from a survey that queried 1,714 U.S. adults about their religious habits. They found that entrepreneurs prayed more frequently than other people and were more likely to believe that God was personally responsive to them.
The challenge: Do people who launch companies really feel a deeper connection to their deity than non-entrepreneurs? Professor Neubert, defend your research.
Neubert: Entrepreneurs seem to be more religious in a couple of small—but statistically significant—ways. They pray more—several times a week, on average—and are more likely to believe in an engaged, responsive God who takes a personal interest in them. You can see how the two might be related: If you think God cares about you, you’re more likely to talk to him. Entrepreneurs also are more apt to worship with a congregation that encourages business activity. On other measures—church affiliation, belief in God, and service attendance—they seem to be as religious as everyone else: Nearly nine out of 10 are affiliated with some religion. They attend church monthly, on average, and two-thirds say they have no doubt that God exists. But even those findings might surprise people who assume that hard-driving businesspeople are too busy or greedy to make time for religion.
HBR: Are you studying this because Baylor is a Christian university?
My colleagues, associate professors Kevin Dougherty and Jerry Park and graduate student Jenna Griebel, and I are studying it because entrepreneurs play a critical role in the American economy, so it’s crucial to understand what drives them. Yet research on their religious practices has been pretty sparse. A 2004 study of 44 Brooklyn entrepreneurs found that religiosity was positively correlated to personal ambition and innovation, and a 1985 study on first-generation Japanese-American men linked self-employment to family religious tradition and participation. But those were small samples, and other research, on workers in the UK and entrepreneurs in Colorado, has yielded contradictory findings.
We wanted to examine a random national sample—using the Baylor Religion Survey—and to look beyond affiliation and attendance into beliefs and behaviors. Just because someone goes to church doesn’t mean it’s salient in their lives. This was part of a multiphase project on religion and entrepreneurship supported by a grant from the National Science Foundation.
Did you look at Judaism, Islam, and other faiths too?
Our sample included respondents from all major religions. But in the U.S., even with a national sample, you’re talking about Christians predominantly, since the numbers of Muslims, Jews, and people of other religions, as well as atheists and agnostics, are so small.
So what do these entrepreneurs pray for?
Unfortunately, we don’t know the content of their prayers. Are they asking for energy, insight, success? They’re exposed to a lot more uncertainty and risk than the rest of us, so maybe they feel a need to pray more. Perhaps the pressure of starting and running a business to put food on the table heightens their spiritual leanings.
Or maybe people with greater faith in God are more willing to take risks.
Yes, I think there’s a confidence that can come from your religious beliefs. And maybe the individualism and autonomy associated with entrepreneurship are reflected in the idea of a more personal, direct relationship with God.
Your findings on congregations present another chicken-or-egg question: Do entrepreneurs gravitate to churches that are pro-business, or do those churches spur people to start companies?
We don’t know the direction of the relationship. Maybe entrepreneurs find a place where their mind-set is affirmed. Or maybe they’re influenced by their church peers and leaders. A community of faith surely provides social capital; it can be a source of customers, investors, employees, and encouragement and ideas. And some of these congregations really emphasize the integration of work and worship and financial planning, as well as running their churches in more innovative, businesslike ways. But, all that said, when we’ve asked entrepreneurs in follow-up interviews why they chose their churches, most have said location or friends and family. They haven’t said, “This is the most pro-business congregation in the area.”
Perhaps your findings explain the growing popularity of social entrepreneurship.
Well, we know social entrepreneurs have a purpose beyond profit, and that could certainly come from spiritual beliefs. But among the 28.6% of people in our sample who had started or were trying to start a business, the vast majority had traditional motives: They wanted to work for themselves or sell a product or service that would earn them a good living.
You’ve shown a link between faith and entrepreneurial activity. But what about entrepreneurial success?
We did include some open-ended questions about profitability and other performance measures in a follow-up national survey, but a lot of people left those blank. Still, I think the issue merits further investigation, and we’ll explore it in future research. In another study that Baylor assistant professor Steve Bradley and I did on participants in microfinance programs in Africa and Indonesia, we found that the value people placed on their relationship with God and the way they treated others as a result—what we dubbed their “spiritual capital”—was associated with more innovation, higher revenues, and more employees in their businesses, even when controlling for skill sets and connections. We have another paper under review that delves a bit deeper into congregation characteristics and shows that members of groups that emphasize integrating faith into work are more entrepreneurial in, satisfied with, and committed to their jobs. Clearly, those sorts of employees contribute to the success of organizations.
So your findings hold true not just for entrepreneurs but also for entrepreneurial thinkers in established organizations?
Yes, we have found that people with religious beliefs are more engaged and entrepreneurial at work. Yet we don’t know specifically how this plays out. In the latest phase of our research, we’ve spent time with churchgoers in four areas of the U.S.: black Protestants in Texas, mainline Protestants in New Jersey, evangelicals in Michigan, and Catholics in California. Targeting two churches (one pro-business, one less so) in each locale, we interviewed 10 entrepreneurs and 10 full-time working professionals from all eight congregations, asking more specific questions about the impact that faith has on their work: Does it contribute to their success? How does it affect their behavior? Although we’re only starting our analyses, we have some confidence that people’s religious beliefs do play a role in how they work. The tendency for business leaders might be to ignore, dismiss, or discourage religion at the office. But that could mean missing out on a significant source of employee engagement and dedication. The challenge is to tap into people’s spirituality while still being inclusive of everyone.
A version of this article appeared in the October 2013 issue of Harvard Business Review.
Mitchell J. Neubert is the Chavanne Chair of
Christian Ethics in Business and an associate
professor of management and
entrepreneurship at Baylor University.
Wall Street turns bearish on gold price, warns of volatility ahead of Jackson Hole
As gold ends the week down 3%, Wall Street is turning negative on gold for next week, blaming a strong U.S. dollar and pressure from the upcoming Jackson Hole Symposium.
Gold folded under pressure from the greenback on Friday as the U.S. dollar index climbed to 20-year highs. December Comex gold futures were last trading at $1,763.10, down 3% on the week.
Markets remain focused on any Federal Reserve speakers after the FOMC meeting minutes from July showed that Fed officials agree on the need to eventually slow down their tightening cycle. Still, they first need to see how their rate hikes impact inflation.
All eyes next week are on Fed Chair Jerome Powell's 'Economic Outlook' speech at the 2022 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, which is scheduled for Friday morning.
"All eyes are on Jackson Hole symposium. Powell's remarks for next week are one of the key avenues that the Fed could use against the market starting to price in a rate cut cycle next year following this year's tightening. We think market expectations are inconsistent with the Fed's inflation targeting mandate. Expect rates to remain elevated and sap the interest out of precious metals," TD Securities commodity strategist Daniel Ghali told Kitco News.
Survey results
Kitco's weekly gold survey results revealed that Wall Street is now bearish on gold prices next week. Out of 11 analysts participating in the survey, 55% expect prices to fall, 27% are neutral, and only 18% are calling for prices to move higher.
The Main Street side remained bullish for next week. Out of 709 retail participants, 46% projected higher prices, 35% called for a move lower, and 19% were neutral, Kitco's survey showed.
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The technical picture remains bearish in the near term, Kitco's senior analyst Jim Wyckoff said.
"Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,725.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $1,762.70 and then at Thursday's high of $1,775.90," Wyckoff said.
This week's drop below the $1,800 an ounce level has put the bulls on hold, Moor Analytics founder Michael Moor told Kitco News.
China's Swiss gold imports soar nearly 150% in July as gold price trades below $1,800
"Trade above $1,786.3-8.3 will warn of strength," Moor added. "A maintained gap lower Monday leave a fairly sizable bearish reversal above that will warn of pressure for days/weeks."
Selling the rallies would be one approach to the gold trade at the moment, according to Alliance Financial precious metals dealer Frank McGee, who is projecting lower prices next week.
"[Gold] can't fight a higher interest rate environment as the Fed's rate increases, and QT start to take hold," McGee said.
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Credit Suisse downgrades its average gold price forecast to $1,725
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China's Swiss gold imports soar nearly 150% in July as gold price trades below $1,800