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June headline inflation to exceed 86 the annual inflation rate in May

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June headline inflation to exceed 8.6%, the annual inflation rate in May

Economists, analysts, and market participants are laser-focused on the Labor Department's CPI (Consumer Price Index) report for June which will be released on Wednesday, July 13. The advanced forecasts released have a common theme or consensus and that is that inflation will continue to run exceedingly hot. Expectations are that headline inflation which includes changes in food and energy costs rose 1.4% compared to the previous month and come in at 8.7% YoY.

"The strong price increase of this year accelerated further in June 2022 and is expected to have climbed to 8.7 %. This is shown by an advanced estimate of Statistics Austria. This means that the inflation rate has risen to its highest level since September 1975. In the meantime, inflation has picked up speed in almost all areas. In addition to recent increases in fuel and heating oil prices, we also see significant increases in restaurant and food prices", according to Statistics Austria Director-General Tobias Thomas.

U.S. News today reported, "On Wednesday, the Labor Department will report the consumer price index for June, with forecasts that it will top the 8.6% rate for annual inflation recorded in May. A run-up in energy prices last month that has since abated is likely to make for an ugly headline number."

CNBC also reported, "The June consumer price index on Wednesday is expected to show headline inflation, including food and energy, rising above May's 8.6% level."

The consensus among different new services is overwhelmingly anticipating that inflation will continue to grow. The CPI report on Wednesday coupled with last week's jobs report will almost certainly result in another aggressive rate hike of 75 basis points at the July FOMC meeting which will convene at the end of this month.

The overwhelming majority of economists and analysts are anticipating that the Federal Reserve will announce and enact the fourth rate hike this year with consecutive interest rate hikes that began in March.

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time since 2018 in March. Before the first-rate hike, the fed funds rate was at ¼%. The Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points at the March FOMC meeting, 50 basis points in May, and 75 basis points in June. It is now expected that they will raise interest rates by 75 basis points in July. The July FOMC meeting will begin on the 26th and conclude on the 27th of this month.

This matches the probability forecast by CME's FedWatch tool, this probability gauge is indicating that there is a 93% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise rates once again by 75 basis points this month.

The net result of the current inflation outlook has pressured U.S. equities lower, taking the U.S. dollar index higher and continuing to pressure gold prices lower on the first trading day of this week.

As of 4:45 PM EDT, the dollar has gained 1.11% or a total of 1.184 points, and is fixed at 108.005. Our studies indicate that there is no major technical resistance until the dollar index reaches 113. This assessment was created by using a Fibonacci extension from the lows of 79.012 in May 2014 up to the high of 103.952 during the first quarter of 2017.

The widely anticipated 75 basis points rate hike by the Federal Reserve has continued to pressure gold pricing lower. The most active August 2022 futures contract is currently fixed at $1731.90 after factoring in today's decline of $10.40. Based on our technical studies the first level of potential support comes in at $1720 with major support at $1680.
 

By Gary Wagner

Contributing to kitco.com

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

 

Tim Moseley

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An Introduction To Cryptocurrency

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An Introduction To Cryptocurrency

 

If you are relatively new to cryptocurrency and have been wanting to learn more and get started here is a brief quick start guide.  Let’s start with some context.

R.I.P. Fiat Money

The word FIAT derives from latin, meaning a determination by authority. Our money is controlled by the central banks and the system is broken. It has been for a long time, only now the house of cards appears to be collapsing fast. 

Last year Turkey reported that its Lira has lost approximately 40% of its value over the last two years alone, but in truth we have been in a state of hyperinflation for way beyond that time. 

Something had to give, and you know that’s true when the World Economic Forum comes out and says that it is time for a reset. They want to bring in a Central Bank Digital Currency, which basically means they will control your money, albeit in a different form. That does not solve anything.

I recall here in the UK the last recession, when we experienced a bank run after the collapse of Northern Rock bank back in 2008. People could not get access to their money. It underlined that the current banking system controls your money and can freeze your account at will. 

What’s more, the bailouts and bail-ins of the big banks are effectively funded by you! Not to mention how that this same money can also be forged easily

 

Source image: ginifoundation.org

What is Cryptocurrency?

It is out of the rubble and backdrop of that recession that cryptocurrency emerged in the form of bitcoin. May 22nd 2021 marked the 11th anniversary of bitcoin, and you may be aware of the famous story of two men who sold two pizzas for 10,000 bitcoin, which was next to nothing back then. 

Cryptocurrency is a form of digital cash which is secured by something called cryptography so that it cannot be duplicated. It is decentralized meaning that you own it when stored in your own private wallet. It effectively allows you to become your own bank. As it gets widespread adoption you can use it in the same way you use traditional money.

Already you can use cryptocurrency to send digital cash to friends irrespective of where they live in the world. You can trade with it. You can pay for business services with it. You can also get cash backs in the form of cryptocurrency at certain shopping outlets. The list goes on.

Bitcoin

There are so many different cryptocurrencies arising right now. The most well known cryptocurrency is bitcoin, reportedly created by someone called Satoshi Nakamoto. Depending on who you talk to there are various interpretations as to who this person is or was – an individual, team, or maybe a covert government set up.

It has a total supply of 21 million and a current circulating supply of just over 19 million. Over 15,000 businesses accept bitcoin including paypal, microsoft, home depot and starbucks to name but a few. On the downside bitcoin is having to deal with congestion and latency problems which may reflect in its transaction fees.

Bitcoin ATMs are springing up and becoming more ubiquitous, with the USA and Canada leading the way. You can find out where they are via this map.

 

Source: https://coinatmradar.com

What is The Blockchain

All transactions take place on something called the blockchain. The blockchain is like a  digital ledger system which records all transactions in a way that cannot be removed or altered, making for greater transparency. There are different blockchains for different cryptocurrencies. When you perform a transaction you can check its status from start to finish on the blockchain. The blockchain is a trustless system bringing transparency to the financial world.

Become Your Own Bank

Before buying bitcoin or any other cryptocurrency it is important to grasp the concept of being your own bank. This comes with a responsibility to manage your security and privacy.

You need somewhere safe to store your bitcoin for peace of mind. When you use an exchange to buy cryptocurrency it is important not to leave it there as exchanges can be hacked.

There are various types of wallet which can be created seamlessly and quickly. They fall into two broad categories. Hot wallets and cold wallets. A hot wallet is a wallet that remains connected to the internet. 

Exodus would be a common example. Exodus is a wallet you can download to your computer and also has an inbuilt swap feature for several cryptocurrencies, which is very useful. I have this on my computer.

A cold wallet on the other hand is not connected to the internet, a bit like a flash drive. These types of wallets cannot be compromised, and I strongly recommend you buy one and store it in a fireproof safe for obvious reasons. 

The three common cold wallets are ledger, trezor and yubikey. I have the ledger nano S

The other important aspect of opening a wallet is that you will be given private keys in the form of seed words which need to be stored offline ideally in a fireproof safe. They act like unique passwords, with the important exception that if you lose them they are not recoverable like passwords are. Be warned, and store them safely on paper.

How To Buy Cryptocurrency

I will use bitcoin as an example. You can buy bitcoin at an exchange like coinbase, and coinbase also has tutorials to aid your learning. Other popular exchanges are binance and kucoin. You do need to check if the exchange operates in your country as there are variations.

You will usually need to attach bank details or a debit card in order to make a purchase, and if it is a first time, just be aware that your bank may reject the transaction, so you may need to liaise with them to prevent it repeating.

If you want to acquire bitcoin without payment or risk, you can use faucets such as cointiply to get your feet wet, so to speak without risk. This is just one of many faucets. You can also use mining sites such as nicehash but I would be cautious due to the energy it might consume in electricity given the rise in energy prices. 

There are social media sites you can join that give you cryptocurrency for engaging on their site. For example Steemit, and our own Markethive Ecosystem.

In Markethive you can pay for membership in bitcoin, and you can also acquire their own markethive coin just by engaging in the platform through various marketing activities. That could be reading someone else's blog, adding content or referring friends. They have some fun gamification like the wheel of fortune too.

These are just a few simple and safe ways you can get started with cryptocurrency that are low cost or no cost. Welcome to the cryptocurrency world.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tim Moseley

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This Emerging Tech Is the Inflation Killer

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This Emerging Tech Is the “Inflation Killer”

by Luke Lango, Editor, Hypergrowth Investing

 

This Emerging Tech Is the “Inflation Killer”

 

I don’t know about you, but I think it’s about time we kill inflation. I’m tired of $5 gas, $100-plus grocery trips, and $500 flights. It’s time we bid farewell to these sky-high prices.

Easier said than done, you say? Well… not really. Unbeknownst to most of the public, there is actually a single emerging technology out there today that is ready to kill inflation right away. It’s arguably the most complex technology to have ever existed. Engineers and scientists have been working on it for years. And it’s now ready to be unleashed to the world.

The timing couldn’t be more perfect. You see, this technology is the ultimate deflationary tool, and will serve as humanity’s greatest weapon in fighting inflation. Indeed, corporate America is already adopting this technology in bulk to dramatically reduce its costs – and the trend is just beginning.

Over the next few months and years, companies across the globe are going to adopt this tech faster than they’ve adopted anything before.

The result? Inflation will get fixed. And today, folks, you have an opportunity to invest in this breakthrough technology that’s going to – in some ways – save the world. It’s the opportunity of a lifetime, and one I wouldn’t pass up anytime soon.

 

So… what breakthrough tech am I talking about?

The Shift to De-Globalization. Before we talk about this breakthrough technology that represents the investment opportunity of a lifetime, we need to first understand why today’s inflation is so bad. The simple explanation is globalization – or, more specifically, the reversal of globalization. Specifically, over the past 40 years, the global economy has morphed into a web of interconnected dependencies. Everything affects everything.

Russia invades Ukraine. Consequently, Ukraine can’t produce chicken because all the farmers are fighting a war. Ukrainian exports of chicken drop tremendously. They’re the world’s sixth largest chicken exporter. Global chicken supply drops meaningfully. Global chicken prices rise everywhere, even 5,000 miles away in the United States.

By the same token, Russia invades Ukraine, and the Western World throws sanctions against Russian oil to cut off the Russian economy. Global oil supply drops meaningfully. Global oil prices rise everywhere. Your gas prices in America – 5,000 miles away from the fighting in Kyiv – rise 50%.

It’s all connected.

 

International satellite visibility

 

Therefore, one might easily say that the fix to today’s inflation problem is to “de-connect” everything. Down with globalization. Hello to localization. Theoretically, that sounds great. In a de-globalized world, a Russian invasion of Ukraine shouldn’t impact energy or food prices in the U.S. But, in practice, localization without technological innovation will only worsen today’s inflation problem.

 

Why did we globalize in the first place?

Ironically, we globalized to beat inflation. Specifically, to optimize the cost efficiencies of various economies, leveraging what in economics is known as “comparative advantages.” Sure, the U.S. has some oil. But Russia has way more oil, and they can extract that oil at a much lower cost because it is so abundant. Therefore, we built a dependency on Russian oil, because Russian oil is inherently cheaper than U.S. oil.

Same story with all those factories in China. Why did U.S. companies start outsourcing manufacturing to China? Cheaper labor. Cheaper labor leads to lower manufacturing costs, which leads to lower final product prices, and lower inflation.

For decades, globalization has actually been a huge deflationary force. To that end, we cannot simply reverse the wheels on the globalization trend and not expect it to cause inflation. Simple localization of supply chains will make today’s inflation problem infinitely worse. Just building out a bunch of oil refineries and vertical farms in the U.S. to establish energy and food independence would cost a fortune – and only exacerbate inflation.

But… advanced localization of supply chains using the breakthrough technology I mentioned earlier, won’t make today’s inflation problem worse. Instead, it’ll fix today’s inflation problem – and maybe forever!

 

The Fix Is Automation

In order to fix today’s inflation problem, America needs to localize its supply chains using automation technologies. That’s right. I’m talking machines, robots, and software programs. Those technologies, working together, are the solution for today’s inflation problem. They are the inflation killer.  

If companies simultaneously localize and automate their supply chains, then they will destroy this unreliable web of global economic dependencies while keeping manufacturing costs low – and, indeed, they’ll even be able to dramatically reduce their manufacturing costs.

For example, let’s say I’m a company that has built a manufacturing facility in China because of the cheap labor. Currently, that facility is likely running at ~80% capacity due to continued COVID-19 lockdowns over there, and therefore, I don’t have enough product to fulfill demand. Neither do any of my competitors. So, we’re all bidding for whatever product does come across the Pacific Ocean, driving my input prices way higher, and resulting in both lower revenues and lower margins for me, and higher prices and longer lead-times for my customers.

It's a lose-lose situation

But… imagine I rebuild that same manufacturing facility in America, and use a bunch of robots to build, sort, and package my products, thereby eliminating labor costs associated with warehouse workers, and improving throughput via 24-hour work shifts. Even further, imagine those robots load all those packages into electric autonomous trucks, that then drive themselves to my customers’ front doors and deliver the product, thereby eliminating logistics-related fuel and labor costs and shortening lead times via constant uptime.

And, even further, imagine that entire process is controlled autonomously via a cloud software platform that connects all the moving parts, thereby eliminating labor costs associated with managers and enhancing operational efficiency via constant and dynamic data-driven decision-making.

In that world, I have 100% control over my supply chain. It’s always up and running. I never have a product shortage. I don’t have to pay high labor costs associated with warehouses. I don’t have to pay UPS (UPS), or USPS, or FedEx (FDX) for transportation fees. I can make more product, at lower prices, resulting in higher revenues and profit margins for me, and lower prices and wait-times for my customers.

 

That’s a win-win situation

In other words, advanced supply chain localization via automation technologies has the potential to turn today’s situation of lose-lose inflation into a win-win for businesses and consumers.

 

Welcome, folks, to the Automation Economy.

 

The Automation Economy

 

The Automation Economy is simply the integration of automated technologies into today’s business operations to reduce costs, increase efficiency, and maximize throughput. That includes the usage of automated machinery to mine raw resources. It includes the usage of autonomous trucks, ships, planes, and trains to transport those raw resources to production facilities. It includes the usage of robotics and software to turn those raw resources into usable products, package them, and ship them to their final retail destinations. It includes the usage of machine vision and RFID technologies to enable person-less store checkouts.

It includes everything. Make no mistake. The Automation Economy is the future, because society is constantly evolving toward lower-cost, higher-efficiency solutions, and automation enables a lower-cost, higher-efficiency future of business.

 

It is the future – and the future is now

 

The Dawn of the Automation Economy

Up until recently, the Automation Economy has been the stuff of science-fiction movies and books. But recent advancements in artificial intelligence, edge computing, machine learning and vision, and more have enabled these science-fiction projects to become real-world realities.

Just last month, Walmart (WMT) announced that it will be integrating a full-suite, end-to-end automation system from Symbotic (SYM ) into its 42 regional distribution centers. This system combines giant robot arms with a fleet of mini “Symbots” – or mobile, multi-purpose robotic machines that look like a hybrid of a forklift and a go-kart – to fully automate essentially all processes in a warehouse or a distribution center. It’s really awesome technology, and for those interested, I’d suggest you watch this video demonstration of Symbotic’s tech.

 

Warehouse automation

 

Walmart first launched the tech in a few warehouses last year. The company has since achieved industry-leading throughput at those warehouses with Symbotic’s technology. That early data has been so promising that Walmart – just a year later – decided to adopt Symbotic tech everywhere. By 2028, every Walmart distribution center in America will be fully automated. 

Walmart isn’t alone in the rapid and sudden uptake of automation technologies. Across the restaurant industry, companies are turning toward automation technologies to help with staffing shortages. Chipotle (CMG) is using robots to make tortilla chips at certain locations, while White Castle is using a different version of the same robot to make burgers. Chili’s has its own robot servers – Rita the Robot – which are in-use at more than 50 locations nationwide. Domino’s (DPZ) is delivering pizzas using autonomous cars in Houston.

 

Restaurant automation has arrived

So has retail automation, where Sam’s Club is using robots to clean floors and take stock of inventory on a daily basis. Kroger (KR) is using robots to prepare grocery delivery and pick-up orders. Amazon (AMZN) has built entire cashier-less and checkout-free retail stores using a combination of hardware and software automation technologies where you simply walk in, pick up items, and walk out, with your purchases charged to your Prime account.

 

We presently sit at the dawn of the Automation Economy

Things are only going to accelerate from here. Research firm ABB recently released the results of a survey of 1,610 executives in the U.S. and Europe. An astounding 62% of them plan to invest heavily into robotics and automation over the next three years. According to ABB:

“Business leaders are responding to unprecedented supply chain disruptions by putting into place measures to make operations more resilient and adaptable.

All told, the Automation Economy is expected to grow by more than 25% per year over the next five to 10 years, according to every major research firm that covers the space. We truly stand at the base of a Mt. Everest-sized economic opportunity – but only those who invest in this emerging technology today will make fortunes in the long run.

 

 

New Opportunities Are Emerging For Citizens of The World.

Freedom and democracy may appear to be struggling to stay alive in America, but there may be a knock-out punch ready to be released. The evolution of the blockchain-enabled metaverse is going to enable the 'Citizens of the World' to gain their own Freedom by democratizing power and creating a new world with new rules, new players, and new opportunities. For 99.99% of us, the metaverse will improve our real-world lives through the democratization of power and opportunity.

Along with the major long-term trend of society towards decentralization and smaller-scale organizations, there are new opportunities developing to help 'Preparers' in the cryptocurrency sector. Businesses are beginning to issue their own Crypto Coins that can be traded on Cryptocoin Exchanges.

Markethive.com for example will be releasing its HiveCoin (HIV) in the coming weeks. It has tremendous upside potential that is outlined in a Video by Founder Tom Prendergast, "Entrepreneur Advantage…".

Not only that, if you go to their website and register as a FREE Member, you will be given 500 HiveCoins for "FREE" along with access to several Earning Opportunities and online tools to increase your HiveCoin balance.

Be sure to check it out today – Markethive.com

Markethive

Tim Moseley

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Effective Ways to Avoid Emotion-Based Investing

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Effective Ways to Avoid Emotion-Based Investing

Effective portfolio monitoring is essential for navigating the changing tides of financial markets. Still, it is also necessary for individual investors to manage their behavioral impulses of emotional buying and selling of assets that can come from following the market's ups and downs. It is no secret that emotions play a significant role in investment decisions. This is because humans tend to make decisions based on feelings rather than reason. 

Emotion-based investing is a term that refers to selecting stocks or other investments based on factors such as feelings, emotions, and intuition rather than purely objective analysis. The main reason why emotion-based investing can be dangerous is that it leads investors to make decisions without understanding the consequences of their actions. Emotion-based investors are more likely to react emotionally instead of rationally when making investment choices.

If you want to avoid emotion-based investing, it's essential to learn how to control your emotions and to measure how emotionally invested you are in investment. This is easier said than done, but you can use a few techniques to manage the situation, which will be discussed in this article.

Investor Behavior

Investor behavior is an essential topic of research that has been studied and analyzed for many years. Investor behavior can be broadly categorized into two types:

  • Behavioral finance
  • Financial engineering

Behavioral finance focuses on the psychological factors that influence investment decisions, while financial engineering seeks to use mathematical models and computer simulations to understand how markets work. Behavioral finance considers investor decision-making under uncertainty, which is a critical factor in modern portfolio management. Financial engineers use mathematics to model complex relationships between returns, risk, dividends payouts, stock prices, interest rates, etc.

Recognizing different investor behavior types can help you make more informed investment decisions. Investor behavior is a critical part of successful investing. By understanding different types of investor behavior, you can make informed decisions that will lead to greater returns.

Humanizing Your Investment Decisions

When making investment decisions, we often take into account the potential return on our investment, as well as the potential loss. However, it is often difficult, if not impossible, to divorce ourselves from emotion when making these decisions ultimately. For example, we may feel excitement, fear, or panic when considering a potential investment loss or gain, and this can tilt the scales in favor of an investment that would otherwise be seen as risky.

Image Source Cooperators

We often humanize our investment decisions by attaching emotions, thoughts, and feelings to the different choices we make. We might justify a decision based on how it makes us feel or what it means to us. This tendency can significantly impact our financial decisions because it can lead us to overlook important facts and risks. Our emotional attachments can also distort our judgment about risk-reward relationships, which could result in poor investments.

Time-Tested Theory

The belief that several market participants buy at the top and sell at the bottom has been proven by historical money flow analysis. The analysis looks at the net flow of funds for mutual funds and constantly shows that when markets are hitting highs or lows, buying or selling is at its highest. The notion of a trade cycle has also become accepted as most economic cycles have a 3 to 6-year period where money flows into equities and then flows out for the next ten years or more. 

This theory was first introduced by Benjamin Guggenheim and later popularized by Paul Samuelson, who called it "the efficient market hypothesis" (EMH). Much research has been done on this subject, including work by Eugene Fama, Robert Shiller, Mark Rubinstein, and John Campbell.

While this concept was well known to Wall Street in the 1980s, it's now being applied to individual and institutional investors as we all try to time our investments to make a profit based on price movement rather than fundamentals and timing market tops and bottoms. A Simple strategy that worked over 30 years ago, legendary investor Bruce Kovner described an investment strategy he called "buy and hold."

Image Source Sarwa

It seem like a challenging approach, but it works! His method involves purchasing stocks at low prices and holding them until they rebound. This is a great way to find bargains because the stock market will go up over the long term more than down.

Understand the Benefits of Market Timing

Market timing is an investment technique that predicts the stock market's direction. Market timing has been shown to be a very risky strategy. The main reason why market timing is so dangerous is that it can lead investors to buy high and sell low, which often results in significant losses. There are many reasons why market timers fail: they may incorrectly predict future trends, focus on short-term rather than long-term factors, or make decisions based on emotions rather than sound logic.

There are many benefits to market timing, including:

  • Increased returns
  • Increased profits
  • Better risk management
  • More accurate portfolio allocation
  • Easier investment 

The best time to invest in stocks or other securities is when the market is undervalued. When the market is overvalued, there is a greater chance that a security will appreciate, regardless of the quality of the underlying business. When the market is correctly valued, you can profit by buying undervalued securities and holding them until they reach their actual value.

The key to good market timing is to use a diversified portfolio that includes a wide range of securities. By diversifying your investments, you reduce the risk of panicking and making poor investment choices. By investing in a variety of assets, you can ensure that you are exposed to a variety of markets and will have a chance to capture favorable market trends.

Techniques to Take the Emotion Out of Investing

Investing is a vital part of any person’s life. It can provide security and stability and help achieve financial goals. However, like any other activity or decision-making process, investing comes with its own emotions and concerns that need to be considered when making an investment choice. The emotional component of supporting stems from the fact that investing involves risk and potential gains and losses.

Two things are difficult to cope with emotionally, especially if you have just started on this journey of building wealth for yourself and your family through investing and savings decisions and actions over time. The first thing to understand about the “emotional” aspect of investing is that it has to do more with how we make decisions rather than what we decide to invest in or not since many factors are involved in such decisions.

The second part is understanding how to get rid of them to make informed decisions based on facts and figures, not feelings and biases which can lead to wrong choices or decisions that may come back to haunt you later on in your investment journey (and life).

There are several strategies that investors can use to take the emotion out of investing so that they can make informed decisions based on facts and figures alone. Let’s have a look at some ways to take the emotion out of investing and start investing more effectively and safely.

Be Patient

Image Source Sarwa

When it comes to investing, patience is key to success! I know that seems contradictory but bear with me for a moment. In my experience, when you think about what you can do to improve your financial situation, it is easy to get caught up in trying to solve all your problems today. Rather than focusing on solving them one step at a time over the long term and ensuring that those steps work for you every day of the week, even if they feel small and unimportant, to begin with. The first step towards increasing your financial literacy level is understanding where you currently stand financially and then deciding how you want your finances to be in the future.

Remember the Past

When the market takes a deep dive, remember that this isn't the first time it's happened. The stock market has overcome many obstacles, such as 9/11, the Great Recession, and the market crash of 1987. It is always destined to recover eventually, although a few people might argue that the market hasn't recovered yet, considering the recent decline in stock prices and unemployment rates, which need attention for countries to come back on track economically and socially.

So when a crisis hits like what we're experiencing now, investors need to remember that panic is the worst thing they can do. Inexperienced investors who have only seen a bull market are more prone to become emotionally charged during times of prolonged volatility.

Benjamin Graham, a British-born American economist, professor, and investor, once said, 

"individuals who can not master their emotions are ill-suited from profiting from the investment process."

Consult With an Expert 

Consulting with a financial expert will help you examine the accuracy of your thinking and give you something else you need; which is time. If you can not afford a financial advisor, at least speak to someone before you make an investment decision. That is, as long as they are knowledgeable enough and not panicking. (Of course, some people are both.)

You must choose the right company for you because many investment companies have investment offers that may be suitable for one type of investor but not another, or investors in certain countries but not others. When choosing an investment firm, you need to know which investment types to look out for. Be sure you're willing to accept the risk level if you want to invest your money with them, such as investing through the stock market, putting cash into bank accounts, bonds, certificates of deposit, crypro, or any other investments.

Control Your Risk Aversion

You can control your risk aversion by understanding why you feel the way you do. We all have a fear of losing, which is based on our past experiences. You are likely to have lost lots of money in the past. You remember this pain very well, and it has influenced your current investment behavior. When we are faced with a risk we do not understand, our brain automatically sends a signal to our body to reduce our intake of that risk. We do this by reducing the amount of dopamine which is a neurotransmitter.

To be able to make informed investment decisions, we need to be able to take the emotion out of it. We can do this by breaking the decision down into smaller steps. This is where the technique of breaking down a problem into manageable steps can be of great help. By doing this, we can reduce the fear of Failure and increase our chances of success.

Other things to consider are:

  • Be cautious when investing heavily in shares of any stock
  • Evaluate your comfort zone in taking on risk
  • Draw a personal financial roadmap
  • Evaluate an appropriate mix of investments
  • Cultivate and maintain an emergency fund
  • Consider rebalancing your portfolio occasionally
  • Resist circumstances that can lead to fraud

Develop a System of Investment

There are several benefits to developing a system of investment. One advantage is that an investment system allows you to make prudent decisions concerning your overall financial status. You can adjust your asset allocation as needed to match your risk tolerance and desired return objectives. Furthermore, an investment system allows you to take advantage of compounding returns, resulting in high returns over time.

To create an investment system, you must clearly understand your goals and objectives. You also need to understand your financial situation and risk tolerance clearly. Once you have established these baseline parameters, you can start constructing a system of investment. Many options are available to you, and choosing the appropriate one for your unique circumstances is crucial.

The Bottom Line 

Successfully Investing without emotion is easier said than done, but some key considerations can prevent individual investors from chasing wasted profits or panicking by overselling. Understanding your investment risk is an essential basis for making rational decisions. It is also important to actively understand the market and the forces driving uptrends and downtrends.

The following questions will help you build a solid foundation for investing without emotion:

  • What are your expectations?
  • How do you feel about your past experiences?
  • Do you have any biases that might cloud your ability to make sound decisions?
  • Can you clearly define what constitutes a “win”?
  • Do you believe in luck or miracles?
  • Does your family history affect how you think about money and finance?
  • How much time do you want to spend learning?
  • Are you willing to pay the price in time, effort, and attention required to develop and maintain a disciplined approach to investing?

If you provided unbiased answers to these questions, then it is possible to invest successfully without emotion. While sometimes aggressive and emotional investing can be successful, overall, data shows that following a realistic investment strategy and staying the course despite market volatility often yields the best long-term performance returns.

 

Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advise.

 

 

 

 

 

Tim Moseley

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Gold prices may see a short-term bounce next week but sentiment remains depressed

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Gold prices may see a short-term bounce next week, but sentiment remains depressed

The gold market is seeing its worst weekly performance in two months as its 4% decline matches the same move seen in May.

Mixed sentiment in the precious metal markets doesn't point to a significant recovery anytime soon, even if market analysts see the price action as significantly oversold, according to the latest Kitco News Weekly Gold Survey.

Gold struggled this week as investors expect the Federal Reserve to continue to aggressively raise interest rates to cool down rising inflation pressures. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets have all but completely priced in a 75-basis point move later this month.

According to some analysts, the U.S. central bank's aggressive stance has propelled the U.S. dollar to a 20-year high, which single handily drove gold prices to test long-term support at $1,730 an ounce.

Although there is some significant bearish sentiment in the marketplace, some analysts have said they are looking for a bounce in the near term.

"Gold is overall bearish, but approaching significant possible exhaustion levels below, which could trigger a bullish correction/trend," said Michael Moor, founder of Moor Analytics. "We have broken below multiple bearish formations, but are likely in the last structural stretch down from the highs."

Colin Cieszynski, chief market strategist at SIA Wealth Management, said that he also sees the potential for at least a short-term bounce in gold.

"The recent drawdown in the gold price has mainly been driven by a rally in the U.S. dollar, which has been getting overextended technically. With the RSI for XAUUSD getting oversold, gold could be due for a short-term trading bounce," he said. That being said, with so much capital moving into the U.S. looking for a defensive haven, gold could continue to struggle against the U.S. dollar."

Gold faces a difficult second half but it's not hopeless – World Gold Council

Cieszynski added that while gold could struggle against the U.S. dollar, it remains strong against other major global currencies.

This week 15 Wall Street analysts participated in Kitco News' gold survey. Among the participants, six analysts, or 40%, we're bullish on gold in the near term. At the same time, five analysts, or 33%, were bearish on gold, and four analysts, or 27%, were neutral on the precious metal next week.

Meanwhile, 484 votes were cast in online Main Street polls. Of these, 204 respondents, or 42%, looked for gold to rise next week. Another 183, or 38%, said lower, while 97 voters, or 20%, were neutral in the near term.

Although sentiment among retail investors remains low, the participation rate is also low, indicating very little attention to the precious metal within this volatile environment.

Although gold has room to move lower in the near term, some analysts have said there is still solid support in the marketplace.

Phillip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures, said that the selloff could be seen as a capitulation move as many complacent long positions have left the market.

"A lot of fat has been trimmed this week and we don't think there are that many sellers in the marketplace. I don't think we see prices fall much below $1,700," he said.

However, other analysts remain significantly bearish even if there is a break in the selling pressure.

"The big picture for gold is still bearish, but I am finding it tough to jump back in," he said. "I'm looking for $1650, which would be the neckline in a big double top that projects back toward $1200," he said.

For many analysts, if gold is going to regain its luster, the market needs to see a shift in U.S. monetary policy. The Federal Reserve's expected 75-basis point move remains a challenging headwind for gold.

Some analysts and economists noted that the latest employment report, which showed that the economy created 372,000 jobs last month, has solidified the rate cut. The market is seeing some hope that the U.S. central bank can engineer a soft landing as it continues to raise interest rates.

By Neils Christensen

For Kitco News

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

 

Tim Moseley

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Gold price could see ‘2000 flashback’ as most commodities reverse in second half of 2022 Bloomberg Intelligence

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Gold price could see '2000 flashback' as most commodities reverse in second half of 2022 – Bloomberg Intelligence

Despite gold kicking off the second half of the year with a drop below $1,800 an ounce, Bloomberg Intelligence sees the precious metal moving higher versus broader commodities, which are at risk of a reversal.

Crude oil is the commodity facing the biggest reversion risk in the second half of 2022, while gold is among the few that could benefit and see the $2,000 an ounce levels again, according to Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone.

"The great reversion of 2022 may gain momentum in 2H, and crude oil seems a top candidate to drop. We see 2H risks tilted toward accelerating retracement in the Bloomberg Commodity Index, with gold potentially a primary standout," McGlone said in his mid-year outlook.

Bloomberg Intelligence looked at whether gold got too cold while commodities got too hot during the year's first half. And after looking at all the data, McGlone noted gold is trend ready while the rest of the commodity market will be coming down from its peaks.

"Gold's moribund performance is clearly different from past high-velocity commodity rallies. But the metal looks poised to come out ahead … Juxtaposed on the chart is gold hovering around its 100-week mean for almost a year. Our take: Gold is trend ready, while broad commodities risk reversion to their historic mean," McGlone wrote. "The last similar period of sluggish gold vs. strong commodities was in 2000 as the internet bubble burst and the precious metal jumped into an extended bull market."

Gold is likely to shine versus industrial metals for the rest of 2022 as global growth declines.

"We see copper risks aligned with tumbling stock markets and the metal's roughly 15% drop in 1H continuing in 2H," McGlone said. "Cooper trading above $10,000 a ton could signal recovery, but we think it's more likely that gold will breach $2,000 an ounce."

From the macro perspective, Bloomberg Intelligence sees inflation slowing down later this year as the stock market continues to decline and commodities, including oil and industrial metals, fall.

"If 2022 isn't much different from past high-velocity pumps in the Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index (BCOM), commodities may drop about 50% in 2H. What seems extreme is quite normal … More recent examples of similar surges to peaks in 2008 and 2011 were consistent, as commodities didn't stabilize until dropping about 50%," McGlone noted. "Rising Federal Reserve tightening expectations despite meltdowns in the stock market and copper (considered an inflation/economic indicator) suggest greater risks of broad commodity-price reversion."

Bloomberg Intelligence is projecting a transition to deflation in the commodity space by the end of 2022.

"Reversion is typical in commodities after they stretch too high, and it may be getting signals from slumping industrial metals, cotton, wheat and lumber at the end of June. We believe central banks' vigilance fighting inflation amid plunging equity prices, global GDP and consumer sentiment will succeed, and see some parallels to 2008 and 1929. Both years were notable for stock-market drawdowns, with an exception of the excess liquidity that fueled asset-price pumps in 2020-21 and during the Russia-Ukraine war," McGlone wrote.

The base case for the second half of 2022 is for commodities and equities to fall deep enough for the Federal Reserve to start minimizing its rate hikes. And for gold and U.S. Treasury long bonds to start outperforming. Bitcoin might also start to mirror gold more, according to the outlook.

By Anna Golubova

For Kitco News

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

Tim Moseley

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The All-Out Commitment To Destroy Fossil Fuels Will It Succeed?

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The All-Out Commitment To Destroy Fossil Fuels… Will It Succeed?

by David Stockman, International Man Communique

Destroyiing The Oil Industry

 

Investment in all phases of the fossil energy industry has swooned sharply in recent years, owing to both government regulatory and tax subsidy interventions and also due to the takeover of the Wall Street energy narrative by the ESG (environmental, social and governance) nonsense. Thus, as one astute analyst summarized,

The oil and gas industry, from extraction to transportation to refining, is no longer the profitable and financially stable enterprise it long was. Over the past decade, the industry’s profits have sagged, revenues and cash flows have withered, bankruptcies have abounded, stock prices have fallen, massive capital investments have been written off as worthless and fossil fuel investors have lost hundreds of billions of dollars.

Needless to say, this lagging investment trend began long before the COVID-19 pandemic crippled the global economy. Thus, over the last decade:

  • The stock market value of the four largest oil and gas majors plummeted by more than half;
  • In five of the past seven years the oil and gas industry ranked last among all sectors of the S&P 500, falling to less than 3% of the total market cap of the index compared to 16% a decade ago and 30%a few decades earlier.
  • Since 2015, industry analysts Hayes and Boone listed nearly 800 exploration and production companies, oilfield services, and midstream oil and gas companies that have filed for bankruptcy, with a debt load of more than $300 billion.
  • 2020 saw $145 billion of write-down of oil reserves and related assets, reflecting the diminishing value of the oil and gas sector.

The companies at the center of the US fracking boom have fared worse, consistently spending far more on drilling and production than they generated by selling oil and gas. According to The Wall Street Journal, large publicly traded oil and gas producers spent $1.18 trillion on drilling and pumping oil over the past decade, largely on fracking, while bringing in only $819 billion in operating cash flow, and this yawning gap was covered with rising debt and asset sales.

Overall, the picture could not be more obvious. Energy prices are going to continue rising because the fossil investment/supply development process has been short-circuited.

For instance, capital expenditure (CapEx) among the five largest oil and gas companies has nearly halved since 2013.

Specifically, ExxonMobil, Chevron, Total, Shell and BP spent $88.7 billion in 2019 to fund capital projects, down 47% from $165.9 billion in 2013. As a result, CapEx among these energy giants is at levels not seen since 2007.

Here is the cash price of WTI (West Texas Intermediate) oil since March 31 when Biden announced his plan to release 1 million barrels per day from the nation’s strategic petroleum reserve (SPR).

Spot Market Price of WTI Since March 31

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Of course, the SPR release was merely a political sop.

What the Biden apparatchiks are really aiming to do is use $120 oil prices as an excuse to accelerate their promotion (at taxpayer expense) of high-cost green energy. As Biden recently put it:

Congress could help right away by passing clean energy tax credits and investments that I have proposed. A dozen CEOs of America’s largest utility companies told me earlier this year that my plan would reduce the average family’s annual utility bills by $500 and accelerate our transition from energy produced by autocrats.

What utter clap-trap. Autocrats? Like those in the Persian Gulf where Joe is heading on bended knee?

The fact is the global oil industry is a wonder of free markets, the OPEC cartel notwithstanding. Supply and demand rule — even if on the margin the big Persian Gulf producers have some discretion over the rate at which they draw down their underground hydrocarbon reserves.

So "autocrats" have nothing to do with it. Not Putin or any of the others.

What’s really in play here is the all-out commitment of the Biden Administration to destroy the fossil fuel industry in the name of preventing a climate catastrophe that is pure fiction.

 

New Opportunities Are Emerging For Citizens of The World.

Freedom and democracy may appear to be struggling to stay alive in America, but there may be a knock-out punch ready to be released. The evolution of the blockchain-enabled metaverse is going to enable the 'Citizens of the World' to gain their own Freedom by democratizing power and creating a new world with new rules, new players, and new opportunities. For 99.99% of us, the metaverse will improve our real-world lives through the democratization of power and opportunity.

Along with the major long-term trend of society towards decentralization and smaller-scale organizations, there are new opportunities developing to help 'Preparers' in the cryptocurrency sector. Businesses are beginning to issue their own Crypto Coins that can be traded on Cryptocoin Exchanges.

Markethive.com for example will be releasing its HiveCoin (HIV) in the coming weeks. It has tremendous upside potential that is outlined in a Video by Founder Tom Prendergast, "Entrepreneur Advantage…".

Not only that, if you go to their website and register as a FREE Member, you will be given 500 HiveCoins for "FREE" along with access to several Earning Opportunities and online tools to increase your HiveCoin balance.

Be sure to check it out today – Markethive.com

Markethive

Tim Moseley

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Has gold found a bottom or is it a momentary lull of selling pressure?

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Has gold found a bottom or is it a momentary lull of selling pressure?

For the time in the last seven trading sessions, gold closed above its daily opening price and higher than the previous day’s closing price. However, there was no strong upside move, no higher high than the previous day, and no clear indication that the recent selling pressure has concluded. Rather it seems that market participants are waiting to see what the next two key reports will indicate about inflation and jobs.

The first key report will occur tomorrow when the U.S. Labor Department will release the nonfarm payroll jobs report for June. This will be followed next week by the latest inflationary numbers when the BEA will release the CPI (Consumer Price Index) for last month. Market participants are anticipating the certainty that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates once again this month.

However, the current debate revolves around whether or not the fed will implement another 75 basis point rate hike as they did in June, or soften their aggressive stance by only raising rates by 50 basis points. The key takeaway is that regardless of what the jobs and inflation report reveal the Federal Reserve will continue to batten down the hatches as they have since March.

According to the CME’s FedWatch tool, there is no debate. This is because the FedWatch tool is predicting that there is a 93.9% probability that the Fed will continue its aggressive stance to fight inflation with back-to-back rate hikes of ¾%.

The Federal Reserve has shifted its focus from its dual mandate of maximum employment and inflation at a target range of 2%. Recent Federal Reserve FOMC statements and minutes clearly illustrate that the Federal Reserve is laser-focused on reducing inflation, with the clear understanding that the aggressive rate hikes will lead to an economic contraction and reduction in the labor force.

It is this stance that analysts and market participants have been concerned about as they fear it will lead to economic uncertainty resulting in a recession. The latest consensus is expected to show that job growth is still robust but contracting. The anticipation is that this report will indicate that approximately 272,000 new jobs were added last month and that the unemployment rate will remain steady at 3.6%.

On Wednesday, July 13 the BEA will release the most recent data on inflation. If the most recent inflationary data from Europe is any indication of what next week’s CPI report will reveal we can expect to see that inflationary pressures continue to run hot with a possible uptick when compared to the prior month.

The most recent economic data indicates that the United States economy has deteriorated with consumer confidence moving dramatically lower. But it is also clear that the Federal Reserve will remain steadfast in its determination to reduce inflation from its current elevated levels and 40-year highs, and as such will continue to raise rates this month and in September.

Based on the extremely high probability that the Federal Reserve will enact a second consecutive rate hike of 75 basis points at the end of this month, it is certainly a plausible assumption that the recent selling pressure in gold has not concluded.
 

By Gary Wagner

Contributing to kitco.com

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

 

Tim Moseley

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‘Gold hasn’t changed the price of gold has changed’

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'Gold hasn't changed, the price of gold has changed';

What the gold price reveals about the macro-tuesday, gold shaved $50 off its market value, falling to nearly $1,760. The 2 percent fall in price reveals that the "perception of the macro environment" has changed, and that "speculators" have sold some of their holdings, suggested Axel Merk, CIO and Founder of Merk Investments.

"Gold hasn't changed, the price of gold has changed," he said. "Policymakers don't have many good options, so we might be in for some pain. In the short-term, people are selling everything."

Merk spoke with David Lin, Anchor and Producer at Kitco News.
 

Recession concerns

"The risk is high" that the U.S. economy is heading for a recession, Merk predicted. He cautioned that while two quarters of negative GDP growth is the benchmark for the definition of a recession, "the official word is done by a committee, and they just take that as a contributing factor. They may not declare a 'recession,' because we have low unemployment and other items."

"The markets are telling us it's a mess out there," said Merk. "We were faced with a major supply shock. And when you're faced with a major supply shock, policymakers make the wrong decisions."

He went on to explain that "usually recessions are driven by demand, whereas recession, this time around, is driven by supply."

"Supply shocks are stagflationary," said Merk. "They cause costs to go up, and growth to go down… Part of the problem is not just that [the government] wrote [stimulus] checks, but when we have excessive government debt, and people lose confidence that this is going back into balance, that affects consumer behavior as well."

He went on to suggest that the Fed would continue to tighten its monetary policy, reducing GDP growth, and then would reverse course once inflation numbers look better.

Inflation

When it comes to monetary tightening, The Fed "doesn't have a choice," said Merk. "The question is whether they'll stick with it… We have to kill off growth, inflation numbers are going to come down, and the Fed may well declare victory. But inflation… is going to pop back up."

Merk said that the correct reaction to inflation is "not to write a stimulus check, but to throttle down demand" and improve the supply-side. He proposed that increasing immigration, while removing domestic barriers to oil and nuclear production, would help ease inflation pressures, while increasing GDP.

Over the weekend, U.S. President Joe Biden posted a Tweet, asking U.S. gas stations to "bring down the price you are charging at the pump to reflect the cost you're paying for the product." In response, Amazon Founder and Chairman Jeff Bezos tweeted that Biden's statements are "either straight ahead misdirection or a deep misunderstanding of basic market dynamics."

Merk said that he agrees with Bezos.

Ex Google advertising chief: There is 'no limit' to tech companies mining your data – Sridhar Ramaswamy

"The politically attractive thing to say is, 'oh it's the bad guys out there' [causing inflation]," said Merk. "The gas station, right? They're causing all the problems. People aren't that stupid. The problems are far more fundamental… The actual solution is to increase energy production and throttle down demand. There are many things you can do, but they are not politically attractive."

To find out about Merk's stagflation hedges, and his forecast for the gold price, watch the above video.

 

By Kitco News

For Kitco News

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

 

Tim Moseley

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Slightly Up From Slavery

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Slightly Up From Slavery

by Doug Casey, International Man Communique

 

Slightly Up From Slavery

 

To eliminate misunderstanding as to what taxes are, it is helpful to define the word "theft." One good definition is "the wrongful taking and carrying away of the personal goods of another." The definition does not go on to say, "unless you're the government."

There is no difference, in principle, between the State taking property and a street gang doing so, except that the State's theft is "legal" and its agents are immune from prosecution. Many people do not accept that analogy, because the government is widely viewed as being of, for, and by the people, even though it's also acknowledged as acting badly from time to time.

Suppose a mugger demanded your wallet, perhaps because he needed money to buy a new car and threatened you with violence if you weren't forthcoming. Everyone would call that a criminal act. Suppose, however, the mugger said he wanted the money to buy himself food. Would it still be theft? Suppose now that he said he wanted your wallet to feed another hungry person, not himself. Would it still be theft?

Now let's suppose that this mugger convinces most of his friends that it's okay for him to relieve you of your wallet. Would it still be theft? What if he convinces a majority of citizens? Principles stand on their own. Even if a criminal act is committed for a good purpose, or with the complicity of bystanders, (even if those people call themselves the government), it is still an act of criminal aggression.

It is important to establish an ethical viewpoint on the matter, even if it doesn't change your reaction to the mugger's (or the State's) demands. Just as it's usually unwise to resist a mugger, it's usually unwise to resist the government, which has a lot of force on its side.

That's not to say it's easy to swim against the tide. Every year at tax time promoters of big government haul out an assortment of nostrums to sedate the lambs as they are shorn. One of the worst is "Taxes are the price we pay for civilization," a statement of Supreme Court Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes. It is a splendid example of how, if a lie is big enough and is repeated often enough, it can come to be accepted.

Actually, the truth is almost exactly the opposite. As Mark Skousen, economist and author, has pointed out: "Taxation is the price we pay for failing to build a civilized society. The higher the tax level, the greater the failure. A centrally planned totalitarian state is a complete failure of civilization, while a totally voluntary society is its ultimate success."

Taxes are destroyers of civilization and society. They impoverish the average man. They support welfare programs that anchor the lower classes at the bottom of society. They underwrite a gigantic bureaucracy that serves only to raise costs and quash incentive. They pay for public works programs (once called "pork barrel projects," but now rechristened "infrastructure investment") that are usually ten times more costly than their privately financed counterparts, whether needed or not. They maintain programs that cause huge distortions in the economy (such as deposit insurance for banks). And they foster a climate of fear and dishonesty. The list of evils goes on. But the simple truth is that anything needed or wanted by society would be provided by profit-seeking entrepreneurs, if only the tax collector would retire.

Protesting against taxes because they're a costly or inefficient way of providing services, however, is in good measure futile. It's like saying that the mugger shouldn't rob you because there might be a better way for him to get what he wants.

How serious is the tax problem in the long run? I believe it will become less, not more serious, despite the government's increasingly high tax rates and draconian enforcement measures. The major long-term trend of society is toward decentralization and smaller-scale organizations. The US government will prove no more able to deal with a rapidly evolving economy than was the Soviet government. More and more Americans will see the government as meaningless and irrelevant, as serving no useful purpose.

 

New Opportunities Are Emerging For Citizens of The World.

Freedom and democracy may appear to be struggling to stay alive in America, but there may be a knock-out punch ready to be released. The evolution of the blockchain-enabled metaverse is going to enable the 'Citizens of the World' to gain their own Freedom by democratizing power and creating a new world with new rules, new players, and new opportunities. For 99.99% of us, the metaverse will improve our real-world lives through the democratization of power and opportunity.

Along with the major long-term trend of society towards decentralization and smaller-scale organizations, there are new opportunities developing to help 'Preparers' in the cryptocurrency sector. Businesses are beginning to issue their own Crypto Coins that can be traded on Cryptocoin Exchanges.

Markethive.com for example will be releasing its HiveCoin (HIV) in the coming weeks. It has tremendous upside potential that is outlined in a Video by Founder Tom Prendergast, "Entrepreneur Advantage…".

Not only that, if you go to their website and register as a FREE Member, you will be given 500 HiveCoins for "FREE" along with access to several Earning Opportunities and online tools to increase your HiveCoin balance.

Be sure to check it out today – Markethive.com

Markethive

Tim Moseley