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Short-covering in gold silver bulls have more heavy lifting ahead

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Short-covering in gold silver; bulls have more heavy lifting ahead

Gold and silver prices are higher, with silver sharply up, in midday U.S. trading Monday. Gold hit a nearly four-month low overnight. Short covering by the shorter-term futures traders was featured on this first day of the trading week. A weaker U.S. dollar index, higher crude oil prices and lower bond yields on this day also worked in favor of the metals markets bulls. However, the bulls need to put together some solid price-gain days to begin to repair recent chart damage. June gold futures were last up $4.70 at $1,813.10. July Comex silver futures were last up $0.479 at $21.48 an ounce.

Global stock markets were mixed but mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are mixed at midday. The S&P 500 stock index last week had its worse week in 11 years. The U.S. index is now flirting with being in a bear market that is defined by the indexes being down 20% from its recent high. The Russia-Ukraine war, Covid lockdowns in China and inflation fears are hitting the equities hard. The risk aversion seen in the marketplace recently is bullish for gold and silver, but bulls have been perplexed their metals have not seen much upside price performance by such.

U.S. dollar could dominate gold price through the summer – analysts

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil futures prices higher, at a two-month high and trading around $112.50 a barrel. Meantime, the U.S. dollar index is lower in midday trading. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 2.86%.

Technically, June gold futures prices hit a nearly four-month low early on today. A nine-week-old price downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $1,875.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,750.00. First resistance is seen at Friday’s high of $1,827.60 and then at $1,850.00. First support is seen at $1,800.00 and then at today’s low of $1,785.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

July silver futures saw short covering featured. Prices hit a 22-month low Friday. A steep price downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The silver bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $23.00 an ounce. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $20.00. First resistance is seen at $21.625 and then at $22.00. Next support is seen at $21.00 and then at today’s low of $20.835. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5.

July N.Y. copper closed up 115 points at 418.65 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. The copper bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. A steep price downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 440.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 400.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 420.60 cents 425.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 413.35 cents and then at 410.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.

By Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

 

Tim Moseley

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How to Identify a Viable Business Idea

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How to Identify a Viable Business Idea

How do you identify a viable business idea

If you want to start your own business, the first step is to generate a business idea. Validate your idea with a paid customer base. You'll get a better idea of which ideas have the highest chance of succeeding if you can generate a profitable income. Then, you can test and validate your idea by conducting a formal investigation and understanding your potential competitors. Then, you can develop your unique selling proposition.

Formal investigation

When identifying a viable business idea, a formal investigation is critical. This research may include a pre-feasibility study or a marketing analysis. Formal investigation involves identifying potential scenarios and reducing them to a few specific models. The results of this step should inform further study, and the next step will be to refine the remaining scenarios. However, it is important to avoid the process of "fluffing up" the analysis.

The most basic concerns when screening a business idea include determining whether the market is large enough to sustain a profitable business. The amount of profit margin, the market size and structure, and the complexity of the distribution system are some basic concerns. If these aspects of the market are not met, the business idea is unlikely to be viable. Formal investigation will help determine if the idea is worth pursuing.

Understanding existing and potential competitors

There are many reasons why you should understand existing and potential competitors before starting a business. The first of these is the fact that you will need to know what their objectives are. The goals of your competitors may vary, but they generally involve profit and growth, being first to market in a new market, or even entering a new international market. To identify the most promising business idea, you should analyze these factors and understand your competitors' objectives and strategies.

You can find information about your competitors through articles published in magazines, newspapers, and online. This will help you determine the strengths and weaknesses of your competitors. You can also visit libraries to find relevant articles. The librarian can help you find relevant articles online or through an archive. It's also helpful to know what types of competition you're up against. Understanding existing and potential competitors will allow you to create a business plan based on information you've gathered.

Gut feeling

Your gut is one of the most powerful signals you can use to determine if your idea for a new business is viable. It's a part of your enteric nervous system, also known as the ENS. It has several parts, including the neurons that line your stomach. These signals can help you identify a viable business idea, as well as indicate a potential threat or strategy pivot. The best way to utilize your gut feelings is to pay close attention to them and follow them.

When you identify a new business idea, your gut feels can be a faint whisper or a very strong feeling of uneasiness. These feelings aren't random, and they're not necessarily true. Your intuition is an important part of your decision making process. This is because your gut feels based on evidence and a deep understanding of the world around you. Developing a strong intuition can lead you to make more informed decisions about what you're doing and how to best utilize it.

TA

Understanding unique selling proposition

It is crucial to understand your unique selling proposition to identify a viable business opportunity. Most businesses are similar in their products and services, but very few are unique. This differentiation is called a USP and is used to set you apart from your competitors. Here are some tips to help you identify a business idea that's worth pursuing. o Understand your target customers and their needs. Then, focus on creating a product or service that helps them solve their problems.

o Create a clear and concise Unique Selling Proposition. Developing an effective one is essential in distinguishing yourself from your competitors. The Unique Selling Proposition can help you set your business apart from competitors by showcasing your product or service. It can be as simple as a clear and concise description of the product or service. Alternatively, you can also use the Unique Selling Proposition to guide your branding decisions.

Tim Moseley

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NATO enlargement and Putin

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Plans to accept Finland and Sweden into NATO are a problem, Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Monday 16th May. According to him, Russia would have to react if the Alliance expanded its military infrastructure. Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson announced on Monday that her country had officially decided to apply for NATO membership. Finnish parliament members are now debating the same move.
Sweden has relied on neutrality for years, but has reconsidered its position over the course of this year's Russian invasion of Ukraine.The Swedish prime minister announces the decision after a three-hour debate. She thinks there is a large public support for this step. Sweden's planned entry into the Alliance, which with Finland should grow to 32 members, will redraw the geopolitical map of northern Europe, according to Reuters.
  Swedish Prime Minister

 Swedish PM Magdalena Andersson says Europe and Sweden "are living now in a new and dangerous reality". But she also said that Sweden does not want any nuclear weapons on its territory. A date for the formal application is still unclear because Sweden will send in its application together with Finland. Finnish President Sauli Niinistö and Prime Minister Sanna Marino have spoken out in recent days about joining NATO.
Putin did not specify what steps Moscow would take if NATO infrastructure was moved to Finland and Sweden. "We'll see what threats he creates for us," he said. "There is a problem here created for no reason. We will respond accordingly " he added.

   NATO members in blue, grey are neutral states
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Monday that Moscow considered such a move worrying and would monitor the implications for its security. "We are convinced that the accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO will not strengthen or improve the security architecture of our continent," he said. 
At the same time  some of the biggest ever Nato military exercises in the Baltics are taking place in Estonia and Latvia.
Putin also said that Russia had no problems with Sweden or Finland and that the enlargement of the Alliance was in the interests of the United States. "The US-led military alliance is working to increase its global influence," he said.

Germany welcomes NATO's enlargement to include Finland and Sweden, said German Foreign Minister Baerbock.

It seems any calming down of the political situation is out of sight.

                      Thank you for reading            

                                                             Margaret

Tim Moseley

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President Nayib Bukele Announces 44 Countries To Meet In El Salvador To Discuss Bitcoin

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President Nayib Bukele Announces 44 Countries To Meet In El Salvador To Discuss Bitcoin

by Nik 

ecosystem for entrepreneurs

 

El Salvador President Nayib Bukele announced that 32 central banks and 12 financial authorities are meeting in the country to discuss Bitcoin.

Late Sunday night, El Salvador President Nayib Bukele announced on Twitter that 32 central banks and 12 financial authorities from 44 countries are to meet on Monday, May 16, to discuss financial inclusion, digital economy, banking the unbanked, the El Salvador’s Bitcoin rollout and its benefits in the country.

In follow up tweets, the president announced that the Central Bank of São Tomé and Príncipe, Central Bank of Paraguay, National Bank of Angola, Bank of Ghana, Bank of Namibia, Bank of Uganda, Central Bank of the Republic of Guinea, Central Bank of Madagascar, Bank of the Republic of Haiti, and the Bank of the Republic of Burundi, Central Bank of Eswatini and its Ministry of Finance, Central Bank of Jordan, Central Bank of The Gambia, National Committee of Banks and Seguros of Honduras, Directorate General of Treasury, Ministry of Finance and Budget, Madagascar, and the Maldives Monetary Authority are among those that will be attending.

Bukele also added that National Bank of Rwanda, Nepal Rastra Bank, Sacco Societies Regulatory Authority (SASRA), Kenya, State Bank of Pakistan, General Superintendency of Financial Entities of Costa Rica, Superintendence of the Popular and Solidarity Economy of Ecuador, and the Central Bank of El Salvador will be in attendance.

On Friday, May 13, the Twitter account for Bitcoin Beach announced that “Central bankers from Angola, Armenia, Bangladesh, Burundi, Congo, Costa Rica, Egypt, Gambia, Ghana, India, Namibia, Senegal, Sundan, Uganda, Zambia and 25 other developing countries are getting on planes today to fly to El Salvador.”

ecosystem for entrepreneurs

Not long after President Bukele’s official announcement, Bitcoin Beach tweeted out a map of the world that seemingly has countries who have either adopted Bitcoin and or are attending tomorrow's meeting filled in color, saying “Probably nothing.”

Image via Bitcoin Beach

It took 12 years for the first country to adopt Bitcoin, around 8 months for the second, and if Panama’s president signs their recent Bitcoin bill into law, then they will be the third only about a month after the second. Now, countries from all over the world are meeting in El Salvador to discuss financial inclusion and how adopting Bitcoin can benefit their countries.

Gradually, then suddenly. 

Tim Moseley

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Gold price in 5 years: 1300 or 4000?

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Gold price in 5 years: $1,300 or $4,000?

A massive selloff in U.S. stocks, extreme panic in the crypto space, and the worst week for gold in almost a year are just a few headlines that describe the volatility seen all across the board. Here's a look at Kitco's top three stories of the week:

3. 'Extreme panic' in crypto: How risky is Bitcoin price below $30k?

2. Gold price is in a 'danger zone'

1. Gold price's 5-year outlook: $1,300 or $4,000? MKS PAMP weighs in

 

By Anna Golubova

For Kitco News

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

 

Tim Moseley

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Longing for home

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And where are you at home? Where is your home? Let's imagine that we have the same task as the young adults in the vocational school level and in the educational park. We have to choose an object with which to introduce our home. What kind of object could it be? An armchair that I can sit in at night? A deck chair with which I can lie in the sun at my favorite place? My headphones with which I can listen to my music undisturbed? Or maybe my bed, where I can sleep safe, warm and secure?

These objects show: Home is where I feel comfortable. Where I am safe and secure. But home is more than that. I'll list a few more objects that might illustrate home.

– A table where we meet to eat and talk.
– A soccer field where we can play together.
– A festival where we can meet others.
– A church where we can worship together.

When I think about it, I realize that home may not have so much to do with places, houses or apartments. Home is a "we. In other words, people with whom I am connected. People who mean something to me. People who belong to me and to whom I belong. People who give me the feeling of being at home. As the philosopher Karl Jaspers put it, "Home is where I understand and where I am understood." Yes, that's what it takes to be at home. Someone who understands me and someone I understand.

I invite you to think about where our home is and what that has to do with God. Three thoughts on this:

1. finding home
2. shaping home
3. walking towards home

1. FINDING HOME
There is a Psalm in the Bible that talks about how a person finds a home with God.

How pleasant are your dwellings, O Lord of hosts …
My soul desires and longs for the courts of the Lord; my body and soul rejoice in the living God.

The bird has found a house
and the swallow a nest for her young,
Your altars, Lord of hosts.

When temple courts and altars are mentioned, one might think that it is mainly about the temple. The temple as a special place. The temple as a holy place. But the temple is important primarily because the psalmist finds God in this special place. Here he experiences the presence of God. Here he knows himself understood. And here he learns to understand God.

He finds home with God.

Does this mean that we must travel to Jerusalem to pray at the Wailing Wall? Is that the only place we find a home with God? It is quite interesting to observe how the understanding of where to find God evolves in the Bible. The Israelites noticed in their long history: God is not bound to a sanctuary. God is to be found everywhere. God goes along. He is there. Everywhere. In every place.

I would like to tell you an example of a story from the work of the Ziegler Youth. I think that you have also experienced something very similar in Pauline Care.

We celebrated a church service in the Haslachmühle. Children, young people and adults with a hearing-speech disability and an intellectual disability live in the Haslachmühle. We celebrated a farewell service there because people have moved. Some of them had lived there for many years and Haslachmühle had become their home. And now they dared to leave.

To a new place. The hope, but also the fear could be felt when they said goodbye. The longing to meet people in the new place who understand signs and by whom one is understood. The longing to find home in the new place.

In order to make it clear that God goes along and is present, we gave the blessing of God to those leaving and gave them a small wooden cross. The blessing was in very simple words: Jesus loves you. He is with you. Today and tomorrow. Here and in every place. Jesus blesses you.

This farewell service for the move was not only good for the residents of Haslachmühle, but also for me. This service showed me how important it is to have a home with God. A home that is independent of where I live. Which I can experience and feel everywhere: God understands me and I am understood by him. And this service also showed me that ultimately it comes down to my trust. My trust in what God promises:

I love you. I am with you. Today and tomorrow. Here and in every place.

Being at home with God – that was the first thought. A second:

2. SHAPING HOME
In the Bible there is a "strange-worthy" verse on the subject of home: "We have no lasting city here, but the one to come we seek."

You could understand it this way:

What happens around you here in this world is not important.
What is important is that you align yourself with God.
That sounds kind of "unworldly" – doesn't it? It's not quite that simple. If you read this passage in Hebrews in its entirety, you realize: both are important. This world in which we live. And the future world we are living towards.

This became very impressive and vivid to me when I heard a report from a refugee camp. This refugee camp is in Ethiopia. The camp is called Shimelba – translated "the place without a name". After the end of the Ethiopian-Eritrean conflict, this refugee camp was established. Today, about 6,000 people live there. 6,000 people – that is a small town. There are thatched round huts, but also huts with corrugated iron roofs, there are paths and some larger communal houses.

The people have made themselves at home here as best they can. They had to leave their homes. Their land was expropriated, family members were killed and those who could fled. Most of the inhabitants are waiting for the time when they can finally emigrate. But this can take many years. Some also want to return to their old homeland. Shimelba is not a permanent city. Everyone who lives here wants to leave. And yet, life is here and now.

In the middle of this refugee camp there is a church. The people in the camp have helped together and built this church together. It urgently needs to be expanded; on Sundays it is bursting at the seams. There is a school where about 1,000 students are taught. There is a training center where young adults receive training in computers and tailoring, a youth center with opportunities for leisure activities, and various small stores.

Hospitality plays an important role. Guests are generously entertained. Despite monthly food rationing, guests are served whatever is available.

In the middle of this refugee camp is a church. The people in the camp have helped together and built this church together.

I am fascinated by how these people are shaping their difficult situation. They are doing exactly what Christians are called to do in the Letter to the Hebrews:

"Love for brothers and sister / should remain. / But do not forget hospitality &hellig / Remember the prisoners, / as if you yourselves were in prison with them. / Think of the abused, / for you too still live in your bodies …. / In your whole way of life, do not be greedy for money, but be content with what you have … / Do good and share with others do not forget; for in this God is pleased."

Perhaps we can learn from a refugee camp what is really important for our lives and for living together:

-Every person has the right to a roof over their head, to food and drink, to basic medical care.
-Every person has the right to education. To the opportunity to learn something.
-And every human being has the right to a perspective. The possibility to direct his life towards a goal and to create hope.
That is the basis for our coexistence. In our cities and communities. This can also be seen at the Heimattage under the motto "Living together".

Diakonie also makes an important contribution to this togetherness. This is your commitment at Paulinenpflege.

Giving people who are disadvantaged a home.
Shaping a home with people who are disadvantaged.

This includes a roof over their heads, food and drink, medical care. But "full and clean" is not enough. Every person should be given the chance to learn something. That's why we have a large number of schools where everyone gets a chance.

And because we create home, we celebrate church services together. This horizon is important to us. God is there. In our everyday life. Where we live at the moment. Where we are at home right now. And he helps us to shape our home in such a way that everyone finds a home.

Shaping home. That was the second thought. A third.

3. HEADING FOR HOME
"We have no lasting city here, but the one to come we seek" – we read in the Letter to the Hebrews. "But our home is in heaven," writes the apostle Paul in Philippians.

This is somehow the other way around, the way I usually think of it. I think of home from the past. Where I grew up. Where I come from. Paul thinks of home from the future. Where I will be one day. Where I want to go. When I think of home from the future, it is a very beautiful and encouraging perspective.

Then my longing for home and for security has a future, a goal: I will be with God. He is waiting for me.

"My home is in heaven" – I remember saying goodbye to a good acquaintance. Because I had moved away, I had not seen him for many years. I heard that he was terminally ill with cancer. Shortly after that, I was in the old country for a visit and learned that he was dying.

I wanted to see him. But I felt a little queasy. We had not seen each other for a long time and now a reunion shortly before dying? He took away my uncertainty as soon as he greeted me. He gave me a friendly and warm welcome. After briefly telling me about his illness, he said, "You know, I'm looking forward to heaven. I know that the way will still be difficult and saying goodbye hurts. But I feel carried by God. And I know that nothing can separate me from the love that is in Christ Jesus our Lord."

So it was. It was hard to say goodbye. And yet everyone was carried by this hope: Our home is in heaven.

That is my wish for you and for me. That we experience home in this comprehensive sense: When we think of home, we think of our past. Where we come from. Then we should know: My life, as it has become, is safe with God. He carries me. When we think of home in terms of the present and our longing to be understood. Then we should know: I can come to God at any time and with everything. He understands me.

And if, when we think of home, we think of the future and the goal toward which we are living. Then we should know: I will one day be at home with God in eternity. Jesus has prepared a place for me. He is waiting for me.

AMEN

Tim Moseley

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Gold price sees worst week in 11 months but is the market oversold?

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Gold price sees worst week in 11 months, but is the market oversold?

The gold market is looking to close the week down around 4%, its worst weekly close since mid-June 2021. But its current price level of around $1,800 an ounce could put gold at risk of a bigger selloff, according to analysts.

Gold was hurt by technical selling pressure after dropping below the $1,830 an ounce Thursday, which served as support. The precious metals also suffered from higher U.S. dollar and expectations of an aggressive Federal Reserve following hotter-than-expected inflation data.

June Comex gold futures were last at $1,809.90 an ounce, down more than $70 on the week.

"We've seen the CPI come in stronger than expected this week. The 8.3% pace in April is problematic, especially after markets were expecting 8.1%. That automatically told us that the Federal Reserve would not soften its hawkish stance," TD Securities head of global strategy Bart Melek told Kitco News. "It's unlikely that inflation will come off sharply any time soon."

This outlook has weighed on gold and the precious metal moved significantly lower. "The $1,830 was good support, but we breached it. Now, $1,790 is the next support level as gold consolidates," Melek said.

Gold was also used this week for liquidity purposes amid a massive selloff in U.S. equities, with the S&P 500 falling 18% since the end of December.

"Gold's decline is investors covering losses elsewhere. Liquidation for traders and investors to make up for major losses seen in equity markets. Gold is one of the easiest things to convert into cash when times are tough," Gainesville Coins precious metals expert Everett Millman said Friday.

Looking into next week, if $1,800 is breached, gold is at risk of a steeper selloff. But traders should widen their trading range for gold in the short-term due to ongoing volatility in all markets, Millman added.

"Risk of falling further below $1,800 is present right now, more so than ever before this year. We are likely to see a lot of sideways trading," he told Kitco News. "Even with elevated downside risk, we still can get back above $1,900 in a matter of weeks. Traders need to widen gold's range due to the side effect of heightened volatility."

Gold price is manipulated by the Fed, suspects mining tycoon Frank Giustra, but suppression can't last forever

The $1,830 to $1,790 is the likely range for gold next week, said Melek. "There is a risk of gold dropping even lower, especially if we see better than expected economic numbers, elevated energy prices, or disappointment in crop data. If the Fed rate hike estimates move up, gold gets hit a bit more," he added.

A lot of money was pulled out of all markets this week, including equities, crypto, and gold, said RJO Futures senior market strategist Frank Cholly. What matters now is the technicals, which is the $1,800 an ounce level for gold.

"It is a big level, and $1,775 could be in the cards as well," he told Kitco News. "The market at least pauses here and goes sideways as it builds another base and recovers. We've taken a lot of premium out of the market."

The gold market is now oversold, and it won't be surprising to see a bounce back to $1,865 an ounce and then to $1,900 an ounce, Cholly added. "The selling in gold is overdone, and it is closer to the bottom than the top at this level," he said. "A close above $1,840-$1,850 is necessary to encourage the move. Investors have to watch the U.S. dollar and interest rates."

Data to watch

Monday: NY Empire State manufacturing index

Tuesday: Retail sales, industrial production, Fed Chair Powell speaks at the Wall Street Journal Future of Everything Festival

Thursday: jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index

By Anna Golubova

For Kitco News

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

 

Tim Moseley

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How Effective Are Crypto Lobby Groups In DC?

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How Effective Are Crypto Lobby Groups In D.C.? 

Can They Educate And Influence Archaic  Politicos? 

Over the past twelve months, we've seen governments worldwide press for aggressive crypto regulation, especially regarding privacy, non-custodial wallets, stable coins, defi, and even NFTs. This has made crypto lobbying more critical than ever, and many crypto lobbying groups have advanced to protect the industry from over-regulation or worse. 

In this article, we’ll look at 

  • What lobbying is
  • The current state of crypto lobbying
  • The prominent crypto lobbying groups
  • What they can do to reinforce the crypto industry

 

What Is Lobbying?

The term ‘lobbying’ is said to have originated from the lobby of England's Houses of Parliament, where politicians would gather to be petitioned by the general public. Today, lobbying is probably one of the most controversial aspects of modern politics. It involves hiring someone to influence politicians to change laws and regulations and is often a well-connected former politician. 

Some would argue that lobbying a politician is not much different from bribing a politician; however, there is a subtle difference. Bribing a politician usually involves paying them directly to do something. In contrast, lobbying usually involves donating to a politician in advance and then sending a lobbyist over to discuss what the donor wants. 

Of course, if the politician doesn’t agree or comply with the conditions, they are not likely to receive any more donations, with the lobbyist moving on to their political opponent. And yes, it is legal, aligning with the First Amendment of the Constitution, which says that the people have a right to “petition the government for a redress of grievances.”

It’s believed the founding fathers of the United States explicitly included this clause in the First Amendment because they knew that influential individuals and institutions will always try to influence laws and regulations via politicians, even if it's illegal and carries a harsh punishment. 

Making lobbying legal makes this influence transparent and creates free-market competition between different lobbyists and interest groups, theoretically resulting in better laws and regulations, especially since anyone is technically allowed to lobby a politician. However, in theory, lobbying is different from how it works in practice.

In practice, whoever has the most money can hire the best lobbyists and therefore have the most significant influence over the laws and regulations of the land. Interestingly, this effect only started to become apparent in the 1970s after the United States officially went off the gold standard and may well have to do with the abnormal concentration of wealth that has been happening since then. 

Today, lobbying is estimated to be an almost $4 billion industry, and interestingly, only around 14,000 people work in the industry, with most of the lobbying happening in Washington, DC. Moreover, the average return on investment for lobbying is about 760x. In other words, for every dollar spent on lobbying, an individual or institution can expect to see favorable laws and regulations that will result in $760 worth of returns. 

Not surprisingly, most of the lobbying money comes from corporations, and the top spenders have mostly been big tech companies over the last decade. However, the composition of last year's top spenders includes real estate and big pharma organizations.


Image source: Open Secrets

The Need For Crypto Lobbying

There is an excellent practical reason why lobbying is legal and especially relevant to cryptocurrency. The simple fact is some politicians can be incompetent. [Well, we all knew that.] But more specifically, they may not be qualified to create comprehensive laws and regulations on complex topics in emerging industries. Many would argue some should have retired years ago. 

It means that lobbyists are often the only way comprehensive laws and regulations can be created. Sometimes, the lobbyists write these laws and regulations, which was actually the case with El Salvador's Bitcoin law. Many political experts have pointed out that there aren't really any feasible alternatives, and the entire political system has effectively evolved to rely on the input of lobbyists to operate. 

Notably, crypto lobbying efforts began after the crypto bull market in 2018 in response to the lack of legislation around crypto taxation and initial coin offerings. By 2019, over 40 companies and organizations were lobbying for crypto interests, spending over 40 million dollars in the first quarter alone. 

In 2020, the interests of all these different entities lobbying for crypto started to diverge, which makes sense, considering that not all of them were crypto companies. Unfortunately, even the crypto-specific lobbying groups began to splinter into their factions. Adding to the chaos was the infamous infrastructure bill the current US administration put forward, containing a series of anti-crypto provisions. 

The most important of which is arguably the poorly defined definition of a broker, a clause in the infrastructure bill worded so that cryptocurrency miners, validators, and even developers could potentially be required to collect KYC from users for tax purposes and practically impossible to do. 

For the first time, all the different crypto lobby groups came together. They worked with pro-crypto politicians to draft an amendment to the infrastructure bill that would change the wording of these anti-crypto clauses so that the crypto industry doesn't get turned upside down in 2023. The amendments to the infrastructure bill didn't pass, and it turns out that the treasury secretary Janet Yellen was actively lobbying against these amendments while they were being considered. 


Image source: Twitter

Crypto lobbying was ramped up after the infrastructure bill fiasco, with asset managers lobbying the SEC to approve a spot Bitcoin ETF and DAOs lobbying for reasonable Defi regulations. The existing crypto lobbying groups turned their focus to stable coins, as they were a point of interest for politicians. 

By the end of 2021, some political experts started claiming that crypto entities were “dictating terms in Washington” through their lobbying efforts. A recent report found that over 300 people in Washington are lobbying exclusively for crypto interests, with crypto companies and lobbying groups spending three times more on lobbying in 2021 than in 2020. 

 

Three Prominent Cryptocurrency Lobby Groups

1. The Blockchain Association 

The best-known and most influential crypto lobbying group is arguably the Blockchain Association. The Blockchain Association was founded in September 2018 by a series of crypto companies and VCs, including Circle, Polychain Capital, Digital Currency Group, and Protocol Labs. 

Leading the charge is Kristen Smith, a well-connected and experienced policy professional with senior-level experience in both House and Senate offices. She also has private sector experience, advocating for companies in the telecommunications, Internet, and other tech-focused industries. Kristin holds an MBA in Finance from NYU’s Stern School of Business and a graduate degree from Georgetown University.

The Blockchain Association boasts over 80 members and includes cryptocurrency's creme de la creme, like Defi Protocol, AAVE, Etherium Company Consensus, Crypto Custodian Fire Blocks, Solana, Avalanche, and eToro trading platform. 

Coinbase, headed by CEO Brian Armstrong, was one of the founding members before it withdrew from the lobby group in August 2020 under protest due to a disagreement with unspecified decisions made by the association. 


Image source: Blockchain Association 

In a recent interview hosted by Unchained, the Executive Director at Blockchain Association, Kristen Smith, explained that 2021 was a very tough year for crypto lobbying groups primarily because of all the anti-crypto regulations, proposals, and comments coming from the current administration. 

Kristen said that the blockchain association was even on the brink of suing the treasury secretary, Janet Yellen, over her midnight rulemaking and anti-crypto shenanigans, such as her previous lobbying efforts against the amendments to the infrastructure bill.

Despite the backlash, the Blockchain Association has made serious progress, particularly in educating politicians and regulators about cryptocurrency. This is important because most politicians have been learning about crypto through the mainstream media only and arguably not getting an objective or accurate view on it from there. 


Image source: New York Post

Notably, the blockchain association has been pushing back against releasing a Central Bank Digital Currency in the United States and has also set the record straight for Russia using cryptocurrency to evade sanctions. 

 

2. Crypto Council for Innovation

The second biggest and best-known lobbying group is the Crypto Councill for Innovation, founded in April 2021. An alliance among some significant leaders in the cryptocurrency industry was formed to educate policymakers, regulators, institutions, and individual investors on the benefits of digital assets. 

It came on the back of Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong’s visit to Washington D.C. to meet with politicians. His experience there seemed to be one of the inspirations behind the formation of the lobby group. Other supporters are Paradigm, Ribbit Capital, Block, Andreessen, Horowitz, Fidelity, Digital Assets, and Gemini.


Image source: Twitter

Whereas the Blockchain Association is headed by someone who's politically connected, the Crypto Council for Innovation is led by someone connected on a different level. Sheila Warren is a Harvard Law School graduate and a former heavyweight at the World Economic Forum. 

She worked as the head of Blockchain, data, and digital assets and served on the center's executive committee for the fourth Industrial Revolution. I think it’s fair to say she will have some clout in Washington. 

 

3. Lobby 3

The third lobby group is not that well known as it’s pretty new. It is a decentralized autonomous organization called Lobby 3, launched in February this year by American politician and 2020 presidential candidate Andrew Yang. Andrew is an Entrepreneur, a champion of a human-centered economy, and famous for favoring universal basic income saying automation will soon phase out most unskilled jobs. 

Although Andrew spent most of his political career as a member of the democratic party, he became an independent politician in October 2021. Subsequently, he founded a new political party called the Forward Party with the slogan “Not Left. Not Right. FORWARD.” As part of his political pivot, Andrew doubled down on cryptocurrency and claims that he wants to make the Forward Party the “Crypto party of the United States.”


Image source: Twitter & AndrewYang.com

 

As explained on the Lobby 3 website, the DAO will crowdfund crypto lobbying in Washington, D.C, and aims to make it possible for the average person to have their voice heard on the issues that are only currently being discussed by an exclusive group of well-funded crypto personalities. 

The advocate membership is accessible to everyone as Lobby 3 offers three membership tiers starting at 0.07 ETH. Each membership tier comes with its own NFT, which gives its holder a series of perks like access to exclusive events and voting power for what crypto issues are lobbied for in true democratic fashion. 

All proceeds from membership NFT sales will fund “issue-based advocacy organizations” in D.C to build the core advocacy infrastructure, which is the first of the four steps on the Lobby 3 road map. 


Image: Markethive

 

What Will Crypto Lobbyists Do For The Emerging Industry?

So, how exactly will these crypto lobby groups save the crypto industry? First, they'll make sure that politicians know what they're talking about before voting on any crypto-related legislation. When blockchain Association executive director Kristen Smith said, most politicians get their crypto education from the mainstream media, she wasn't joking. 

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong became aware of the crypto knowledge deficit when he traveled to Washington and that about 50% of US politicians see crypto as risky because they think it's only being used for illicit activity. 

The silver lining to this statistic is that most US politicians don’t care about crypto, and it's just the same group of politicians on both sides of the extreme and mainly cited in crypto headlines and MSM. It’s no surprise that the big banks and the like are lobbying most anti-crypto politicians. In contrast, the pro-crypto politicians are almost certainly being lobbied by crypto companies.

The question is, which of these positions is easier to lobby for?  The answer may well be found in the fact that for many politicians, the ultimate goal is to be re-elected. The bottom line for banks is that next-generation financial technologies are replacing them, which means they don't have much to offer besides money. 
 
A politician can get boatloads of donations from big banks. Still, if accepting the contribution doesn't result in additional jobs for their jurisdiction, for example, then they may eventually lose the popular vote in their electorate.

The prospect of capitalizing on the crypto industry is a seriously appealing value proposition for a politician. Because even if the donations they receive from the crypto industry aren’t as lucrative, the jobs, tourism, and investment that the crypto industry will generate will almost guarantee they will get elected.


Image source: Tech Crunch

We are already seeing this effect in full force in States like Texas, now touted as the newest Bitcoin mining capital. LinkedIn reported that job listings for crypto increased by 395% in 2021 within the San Francisco Bay area, Austin in Texas, New York City, Miami-Fort Lauderdale, and Denver. Even counties in select States are signaling their support for cryptocurrency through legal tender bills and the like.

With digital mediums and platforms on the rise and preparing for Web 3.0, some have integrated cryptocurrency as a means to reward users, encourage and nurture the entrepreneurial spirit and support a redistribution of wealth. Blockchain and Cryptocurrency have opened up tremendous possibilities and opportunities for people struggling in the current financial climate.

Apart from an increase in employment in the crypto industry, there is remarkable growth in sovereign social media and marketing platforms that give the average person the ability to generate an income and provide businesses the resources to promote and facilitate their brand to a worldwide audience. 

We welcome all influential groups to educate the powers-that-be and society in general on the benefits of decentralization and cryptocurrency.  The crypto Lobbyists will make waves in Washington in the second half of this year, and it's going to make for a fascinating midterm election. 

 

References: coinbureau.com

 

Also published @ BeforeIt’sNews.com: https://beforeitsnews.com/politics/2022/05/how-effective-are-crypto-lobby-groups-in-d-c-3262760.html

 

 

Tim Moseley

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Gold lost 382 this week resulting in a fourth consecutive weekly decline

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Gold lost 3.82% this week, resulting in a fourth consecutive weekly decline

Gold opened at $1977 on Monday, April 18, and this would mark the beginning of four consecutive weekly declines. As of 5:10 PM EDT gold futures basis, the most active June 2022 Comex contract is fixed at $1810.30 after factoring in today’s decline of $14.30 or 0.78%. Today’s decline in gold occurred without the benefit of dollar strength. The dollar index declined by 0.36% and is currently fixed at 104.515

The image above is a screen-print of the KGX (Kitco Gold Index) which was taken at 4:37 PM EDT. At that time spot gold was fixed at $1810.80 after factoring in a decline of $10.70. Market participants were active sellers resulting in a $14.30 price decline. Dollar weakness provided mild tailwinds adding $3.60 (+0.20%) in value.

The decline this week was the strongest percentage drawdown of the four weeks losing 3.87%. Considering that over the last four weeks gold’s value has decreased by 8.44%, almost half of that decline occurred this week. This correction devalued the price of gold by $167 per ounce, with $73 of that decline occurring this week.

Over the last four weeks, a major factor pressuring gold prices lower has been dollar strength. The dollar has gained value for the last six consecutive weeks. Over the last four trading weeks, the U.S. dollar has gained 4.15% in value. This means that dollar strength accounted for just under one-half of gold’s price decline.

The dollar has been trading in a defined range since the beginning of 2017. In January 2017 the dollar index opened at 102.80 and traded to a high of 103. 78 becoming the first instance of dollar strength at this level since 2003. Since 2017 the dollar index has traded to this level on three occasions.

Both the 2017 top as well as the second instance which occurred in March 2020 created a double top. In both instances, dollar strength peaked at these levels resulting in a price correction that followed these tops. This month the dollar not only challenged the highs created during the double top but effectively closed above them on a daily, weekly, and monthly chart.

The dollar index declined today by – 0.36%. However, the dollar had a strong weekly gain. Currently, the dollar index is fixed at 104.515 and the last time the dollar was this strong was the fourth quarter of 2002.

Yesterday I addressed that recent price changes in the dollar and gold have been headlined driven based upon fundamental events. Because technical studies by nature are lagging indicators there is an inherent disconnect. I was blessed to be mentored by two great market technicians one being Larry Williams. He told me a story that illustrated the shortcoming of only using technical indicators.

To paraphrase: A market technician is analogous to someone standing at the stern of a boat and using the wake from the propeller to indicate the direction the ship was headed. While it indicated where the boat had been, only the captain knows when he will turn the wheel.

In this instance the Federal Reserve is at the helm attempting to steer the ship through a storm brought on by rampant inflation.

By Gary Wagner

Contributing to kitco.com

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

 

Tim Moseley

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Is Bitcoin Changing The Way The Left Thinks?

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Is Bitcoin Changing The Way The Left Thinks?

by Isabel Foxen Duke –

 

As inflation leaves young Democrats with few options for acquiring wealth, some voters are challenging party leaders’ perspective on Bitcoin.

I’ve always considered myself a left-leaning progressive type… or, in my mind, someone who prides themselves on putting the needs of everyday folk over corporate interests or the wealthy few.

I grew up in a coastal city with liberal parents, went to progressive schools, and can spit a Marxist critique of just about anything you throw at me. Fairly distributing wealth across classes — and narrowing the wealth gap — has been at the fore of my political consciousness for as long as I can remember.

Fast forward to my learning about Bitcoin and I quickly began to understand the economic injustice of current fiat monetary policies, and how government control of the U.S. dollar has been used to “make the rich richer” at the expense of pretty much everyone else.

When countries are in economic hot water for any reason — ranging from irresponsible use of debt to unforeseeable challenges like the pandemic — they will print new currency (aka expand the money supply) to pay whomever they see fit, which is usually creditors or capital asset holders, aka existing rich people.

In the process, the purchasing power of the average person’s paycheck goes down. When there’s more money in the economy, everything gets more expensive, especially things that are hard to make more of — like real estate and commodities.

Until I started learning about Bitcoin, I didn’t really understand what was causing the fast-rising prices of assets like real estate. I only knew it was happening, and it was happening faster than I could keep up.

Younger generations are, of course, disproportionately affected by these policies — as even high-income millennial earners will struggle to afford homeownership in the cities where they’re likely employed.

Most millennials will remain renters permanently as the price of real estate has far outpaced wages, all but killing the American Dream.

Thankfully though, and pretty uniquely, this particular economic problem may have a relatively simple solution: one that isn’t dependent on the results of an election, a disorganized legislature or any other governing body outside of our individual control.

Enter Bitcoin — a digital money that’s been engineered to be un-inflatable (that is, no one can “print” more of it) and uncontrollable by a central governing body. The network functions on thousands of independent computers without any one primary authority.

Unlike other inflation-resistant assets, like gold or real estate, bitcoin is also incredibly accessible. There’s no minimum investment to purchase bitcoin and you can store as much or as little of it as you want on a thumbdrive in your studio apartment. You don’t even need a bank account to buy bitcoin. Head on over to your local “Bitcoin ATM” with some cash on hand and boom — you own scarce financial assets that can’t be inflated away. Of course, if you do have a bank account, there’s no need to get out of bed. Buying bitcoin takes under a minute on any number of exchange mobile apps.

Yay for the “common man,” right?

A great equalizer for the average working person, bitcoin felt immediately aligned with the values I grew up with… until I was struck with cognitive dissonance to learn that many of “my people,” — most visibly folks like Elizabeth Warren and other left-leaning Democrats — seemed to hold a stronger negative bias against Bitcoin than those from the right.

“Why do Democrats hate Bitcoin?” I thought to myself.

After doing a little research and talking to some smart economist friends, what I learned wasn’t all that surprising.

First off, from a straight-up political theory perspective, left-leaning folks are ideologically more apt to trust a central government to distribute wealth “fairly” rather than trusting free-market economics. The left is generally pro-government (especially when it comes to finances) and Bitcoin was intentionally designed to resist government control.
Bitcoin was essentially born out of a libertarian ethic — a word many on the left hear with skepticism.

It was unfettered “free capitalism,” after all, that led to the subjugation and subsequent riots of the working class in the era of Standard Oil and U.S. Steel. Without government intervention and the advent of antitrust laws, it’s quite possible today’s capitalism might look more like feudalism than the relative financial freedom we have today.

Skepticism aside, there’s also a practical argument for government control over currency — an argument that most Bitcoiners don’t like to talk about — and that is, government-controlled currency allows us to avoid or mitigate economic contractions.

It would be difficult to avoid a full-blown pandemic depression, or a complete banking meltdown like in 2008, if the government wasn’t able to “bail out” whomever they saw fit with freshly minted money.

In theory, this kind of printing saves jobs (the most important quality-of-life determinant for the majority of the country) and in some instances, new money is directly distributed to working and low-income folks as was the case with Covid-era stimulus checks.

When looking deeper into this reality, however, the lion’s share of the money that was printed during the pandemic did not go to saving jobs or padding the wallets of average citizens, but instead went to saving the stock market and other asset-holder interests.

According to the Washington Post, only one-fifth of U.S. stimulus distributed during the pandemic went to individual citizens, while the majority went to businesses who were not required to show if they were impacted by the pandemic nor were they required to use the funds to keep people employed.

Another clear example of stimulus being used to save the rich instead of the working class was in 2008 when stimulus was used to bail out the banks (creditors) that issued predatory loans instead of using stimulus to bail out the debtors — the ordinary working people who were victims of such predatory loans in the first place.

This all to say, if anyone’s going to make the claim that the government should be able to control the money supply, then they also have to be held accountable for how those dollars are distributed. Unfortunately, neither side of the aisle has a proven track record in this regard.

When you look back at the history of money — all the way back to Ancient Rome — for centuries, government control of currency has almost always been used to widen the wealth gap, not narrow it.

Roman emperors frequently debased silver coins by adding more bronze or tin in order to increase the money supply — and the windfall was mostly spent on wars of conquest and lavish architectural projects. Similarly, Henry the VIII was famous for debasing gold bullion with copper to enhance his personal lifestyle and fund sieges throughout Europe.

The history of currency debasement has a very clear tie with irresponsible spending by governments at the expense of civilians, with very few, if any, examples to the contrary.

This makes me sad. I actually want to live in a world where wealth can be distributed fairly by a trustworthy government. But I’m understanding more and more why so many think that hope is naive. It’s because of an observable history of thousands of years of governments using currency debasement in the best interests of the few rather than the many.

If there’s anything I’ve learned from hanging out with Bitcoiners, it’s that millennials, many of whom are generally progressive voters, are joining in on this chorus after learning about how current monetary policy is rapidly destroying our chances of accumulating wealth.

I recently heard a friend say at a Bitcoin meetup, “I’m a vegan environmentalist — and I’m all of the sudden finding myself agreeing with Ted Cruz over Elizabeth Warren.”

Until we see a fiat monetary policy that actually benefits us (which I’m not holding out hope for), I want to store my money in an inflation-safe asset that I can easily afford, maintain and self-custody.

In other words, I’m buying bitcoin.

Tim Moseley

The Artist that came out of the Winter