100 oz of gold per Bitcoin? Peter Brandt says it’s inevitable

100 oz. of gold per Bitcoin? Peter Brandt says it’s inevitable

Financial news headlines saw an explosion of comparisons between Bitcoin (BTC) and gold following the launch of the first spot BTC exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the U.S. and the parallel rallies of both assets to new all-time highs that followed.

But over the past couple of months, chatter about the topic has quieted down as Bitcoin entered consolidation while gold surged to another record high. According to Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone, on a relative basis, the surge in BTC price didn’t exceed the peaks it reached versus gold and the S&P 500 in 2021.

“The January US #ETF launches set records for inflows, enhancing Bitcoin's status as a leading indicator, and the hangover may have implications for risk assets,” McGlone tweeted. “It was a near-perfect storm for the benchmark crypto to make new highs in 1Q, but #Bitcoin didn't exceed peaks vs. #gold and the S&P 500 from 2021.”

“Highly volatile and speculative, the 24/7-traded crypto was rising vs. gold the last time the S&P 500 e-mini future crossed above its 50-week moving average in November, but this time the Bitcoin/gold cross is falling,” he added.

Despite this, most analysts agree that the launch of the first spot BTC ETFs has been a monumental success, with all the ETFs combined surpassing $50 billion in assets under management in record time, taking just 57 days to do what it took gold ETFs 5 years to accomplish.

Looking at the ETFs individually, the performance of BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) stands out as it became the fastest ETF in history to reach $20 billion in assets under management.

After surpassing the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) ETF in AUM earlier this week, IBIT is now targeting the iShares Gold ETF (IAU), which currently holds roughly $29 billion in AUM.

According to Nate Geraci, president of the ETF Store, IBIT could achieve that feat before the end of 2024.

While many analysts have argued that there is room in investor portfolios for both gold and Bitcoin as both offer protection against excessive money printing and currency debasement, data provided by Kaiko shows that the correlation between gold and BTC remains below the 2022 highs, suggesting investors still hold a differing view of the two assets, and Bitcoin may deliver more upside.

“Bitcoin’s 60-day correlation with safe-haven gold has been increasing in April, nearing a yearly high as of last week,” Kaiko said. “However, it remains significantly below its 2022 highs of nearly 50%.”

“Gold has rallied in recent months due to strong central bank demand, even as global gold ETFs have experienced outflows,” they added. “Gold ETF holdings dropped to 3,079 tons in April, the lowest level since February 2020.”

“In contrast, Bitcoin has been primarily driven by ETF demand,” Kaiko said. “Despite Bitcoin’s market cap of $1.3tn remaining low compared to gold’s $16tn, there is significant room for growth. This low correlation and potential for growth boost Bitcoin’s appeal as a portfolio diversifier.”
And according to legendary trader Peter Brandt, while it currently requires around 29 ounces of gold to purchase one Bitcoin, that number could increase to 100 over the next two years depending on how things develop in the markets.

By Jordan Finneseth

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

The Fourth Bitcoin Halving is done How Has It Stacked Up Historically? What can you expect in the coming months?

The Fourth Bitcoin Halving is done. How Has It Stacked Up Historically? What can you expect in the coming months? 

The Bitcoin halving, a highly anticipated and pivotal event in the cryptocurrency industry, has finally taken place. As history has demonstrated, when the supply of new BTC is reduced while demand remains steady or increases, Bitcoin tends to reach record levels, significantly impacting the entire cryptocurrency market.

The Bitcoin halving event has sparked concerns about its potential impact on Bitcoin miners, which could, in turn, affect the value of the cryptocurrency and the broader market. This article explores the Bitcoin halving, examining its historical effects on the crypto market and its implications from the most recent halving in April 2024.

What Is The Bitcoin Halving?

It's important to differentiate between Bitcoin, the network, and BTC, the digital currency, to understand Bitcoin's halving. The Bitcoin network is a series of data blocks, each with a record of BTC transactions and a link to the previous block, forming a chain-like structure called a blockchain.

Bitcoin (BTC), on the other hand, functions as a virtual medium of exchange that incentivizes specialized computers, known as miners, to gather and validate outstanding Bitcoin transactions. These transactions are then bundled into a block and linked to the decentralized ledger, referred to as the blockchain. As a result of this process, the miner is rewarded with a predetermined quantity of Bitcoin.


Source: Techopedia

The BTC reward is sourced from two different places. The initial source is the coinbase transaction, also known as the block reward, which is the origin of the name for the Coinbase Exchange. The second source of rewards is miner tips, which are transaction fees paid by users who attach BTC tips to their transactions to expedite their inclusion in blocks.


Source: bitcoin.com 

A fascinating point to note is that Bitcoin initially did not involve any transaction fees due to the presence of primarily empty blocks with no transactions. However, as the use of Bitcoin expanded, the number of transactions rose, leading individuals to add fees to guarantee the inclusion of their transactions in subsequent blocks.

Unlike transaction fees, which fluctuate, block rewards are predetermined and hardcoded into the system. The generation of new Bitcoins is automated. Initially, when Bitcoin's first block was extracted in January 2009, the reward was 50 Bitcoins; however, it has since decreased to 3.125. 

This reduction results from the Bitcoin halving mechanism, which systematically slashes the block reward in half every four years. The initial block reward reduction occurred in November 2012, followed by subsequent reductions in July 2016 and May 2020, with the most recent one occurring on April 19th of this year. 


Source: Coindcx

According to fundamental economic principles, prices tend to rise when demand remains steady or grows while supply decreases. In the context of Bitcoin's halving, a 50% supply cut should theoretically lead to a doubling of its price. However, past trends have shown that the price surge following each halving has been even more dramatic, primarily due to the concurrent rise in demand for the cryptocurrency.

Let's take a step back to appreciate the remarkable growth of Bitcoin. When it first launched, only a small group of around a few dozen individuals owned BTC. Fast forward to today, and that number has skyrocketed to over 200 million people worldwide. This surge in adoption has had a profound impact on the value of BTC, causing its price to rise exponentially. What's truly astonishing is that since its humble beginnings in July 2010, when it was worth nine cents, BTC has returned a staggering 720,000 times its initial value. This historical growth is a testament to the potential of Bitcoin and its ability to generate significant returns for investors.

What Has Been the Outcome of Previous Halving Events?

The results of past halving events have shown significant price increases for Bitcoin. For instance, after the first halving in November 2012, Bitcoin's price surged from about $11 to $1,100 in November 2013. Similarly, following the second halving in July 2016, the price jumped from around $650 to almost $20,000 by December 2017. In the third halving, Bitcoin reached over $69,000 the following year.

Historical examples indicate that the decreased availability of newly generated Bitcoins following a halving event may result in greater scarcity and, thus, elevated prices. It is crucial to recognize that although a relationship between these factors exists, it does not necessarily indicate a direct cause-and-effect relationship. Multiple elements, such as market sentiment, adoption patterns, and macroeconomic circumstances, also play a role in influencing price fluctuations.

This brings us to the current halving, with Bitcoin's widespread recognition reaching an all-time high. Some pundits believe that this increased awareness has already been factored into the current market price, leading to a relatively stable future for BTC. On the other hand, others contend that the introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs has generated a consistent flow of investment, which, when paired with the impending reduction in new coin supply, will likely trigger a rapid and dramatic surge in price following the halving.

What About The Bitcoin Miners?

Halving Bitcoin has an immediate and significant effect on miners, who experience a 50% reduction in their earnings from block rewards. This drastic cut can alter the profitability of mining operations, potentially leading to a shift in the cryptocurrency mining landscape. Following the latest halving event, the payout for successfully mining a Bitcoin block dropped from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC.

About a week before the halving event on April 13, the value of a single Bitcoin plummeted from over $67,000 to $62,000. At that time, with the block reward standing at 6.25 Bitcoins, an individual miner would receive a payout of roughly $387,500 for each block of Bitcoin successfully mined.

By April 20, the bitcoin price had stabilized at around $64,000, meaning the new 3.125 BTC reward was roughly $200,000. However, reducing mining rewards could pose difficulties for smaller-scale mining operations in the post-halving period: the increased processing power and energy required to produce new coins pressure miners' profit margins. Numerous predictions have been made that several major Bitcoin miners will struggle to stay afloat following the halving event.

The established, more prominent mining operations should have the financial means to upgrade their equipment and explore more efficient power options. Others believe that given their ample time to adapt to the impending Bitcoin halving, it's reasonable to expect them to be prepared. On the other hand, the halving event poses an existential threat to smaller, less-resourced mining entities, making their survival increasingly uncertain with each successive occurrence.

The Bitcoin halving in April 2024 stands out from its predecessors. Unlike in the past, the crypto landscape has shifted due to the influx of new mining operations, leading to decreased profitability as the growing number of miners share the same rewards pool. 

Another notable shift this time is that the block reward is no longer miners' primary source of income. According to reports, mining companies are expanding their business scope beyond traditional Bitcoin mining to explore alternative revenue streams, venturing into complementary areas such as energy harvesting, data warehousing, and AI development to boost their earnings.

So, How High Could Bitcoin Go?

Some experts believe that introducing ETFs has opened the floodgates to a new wave of investment that could propel Bitcoin's price to unprecedented heights. Moreover, these ETF inflows may also serve as a buffer, mitigating the severity of any future downturns in the cryptocurrency's value. Historically, Bitcoin has experienced drastic declines of over 70% following market peaks. However, the subsequent correction may be less severe, with more seasoned investors entering the fray and accumulating more significant stakes in BTC.

If ETFs are not the driving force, central banks could step in to make an impact instead. In a new development, central banks can allocate 2% of their balance sheets to cryptocurrency starting January 1, 2025. In 2022, the Central Bank of Switzerland expressed interest in purchasing BTC. A significant BTC purchase by a major central bank might trigger a peak in BTC's price. On the other hand, it could also signify the start of the blow-off top phase of the crypto bull market cycle, similar to when MicroStrategy acquired BTC in mid-2020.


Source: Coinmarketcap

Historical Decline Of Bitcoin Dominance. What That Means For Altcoins

The impact of Bitcoin's halving on the broader cryptocurrency landscape is closely related to the shift in market dynamics that follows this event. Analyzing the changes in Bitcoin's market share after the halving is essential to understanding this phenomenon better. This market share, known as Bitcoin dominance, represents the proportion of the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies attributed to Bitcoin alone. However, it's worth noting that historical data on Bitcoin dominance is limited and does not extend back to the first-ever Bitcoin halving in November 2012.

It's probable that altcoins still needed to hold a substantial portion of the market during that time, which limited their influence. Additionally, the entire cryptocurrency infrastructure was still in its early stages, making this point somewhat moot. What's intriguing is that following the second Bitcoin halving event in July 2016, Bitcoin's market dominance decreased by around 4%. This implies that investors shifted their focus away from Bitcoin and towards altcoins. Notably, even when Bitcoin's value plummeted by 40%, its relative strength compared to altcoins failed to rebound.

In other words, BTC is considered the go-to choice for cryptocurrencies' safety. Therefore, a significant 40% drop in BTC's price should have increased BTC's dominance since other cryptocurrencies would have likely decreased in value as well, causing investors to move their funds into BTC. The fact that this shift did not occur could be due to the overall immaturity of the cryptocurrency market.

Despite this, Bitcoin dominance plummeted by 60% during the 2017 cryptocurrency boom, dropping to approximately 40% of the overall market capitalization. Notably, this decline occurred towards the peak of the 2017 cycle, specifically in December 2017, indicating a high level of speculation in alternative cryptocurrencies at that time.

Following the third Bitcoin halving event in May 2020, BTC dominance dropped by 14%, a threefold more significant decrease than the aftermath of the second halving. This considerable decline implies that investors shifted their funds away from Bitcoin and into altcoins even faster after the third halving. Similarly, during the 2021 crypto bull market, Bitcoin's market share plummeted by approximately 35%, falling to around 40% of the total market capitalization, mirroring the trend seen in 2017.

In contrast to the 2017 scenario, this phenomenon occurred earlier in the cycle, emerging around April 2021 and persisting until April 2022. This prolonged rotation into alternative cryptocurrencies implies a more enduring trend than the 2017 cycle, which is reasonable considering that most alternative cryptocurrencies lacked significant utility until 2021.

The brief historical data indicates some unique trends in altcoin dominance for this cycle. BTC's dominance could decrease significantly, up to 40% after the halving, but only around 10% as we near the next cycle's peak. Additionally, altcoins may demonstrate greater resilience during the next crypto bear market.

The significant 40% decrease in BTC's dominance may seem surprising. Still, it becomes more understandable when considering the rising influence of stablecoins and the recent approval of spot Ethereum ETFs. As we move closer to the next bullish crypto market phase, the market capitalization of stablecoins is expected to see substantial growth, while ETH's market cap is likely to increase following the introduction of spot Ethereum ETFs.

How High Will Altcoins Go?

The critical factor is the extent and duration of the rally that altcoins may experience. It is important to note that the prices of altcoins are closely linked to the price of BTC. Altcoins perform well when BTC's price is stable (trading sideways) or increasing slowly. This scenario tends to prompt traders to seek opportunities in more speculative cryptocurrencies due to boredom.


Source: Investopedia

The experts at Coinbureau recommend analyzing altcoin performance compared to Bitcoin by applying conventional stock market measures. They suggest looking at the "Beta to Bitcoin" concept to gauge the volatility of altcoins with BTC. As a general guideline, altcoins with a market capitalization over $1 billion tend to have a beta of 2, meaning they are twice as volatile as Bitcoin. Those with a market capitalization under $1 billion have a beta of up to 4, while those with a market capitalization under $100 million have a beta of around 8, indicating significantly higher volatility compared to Bitcoin.

So if BTC’s price goes up by 2.5x between now and the cycle top, some large capital coins should eventually go up by around 5x, some mid caps should eventually go up by around 10x, and some small caps should eventually go up by around 20x. It is important to note that this is a general guideline and not a definitive prediction for every coin. It is crucial to emphasize the term "eventually" because these projected outcomes are not immediate and may not unfold simultaneously for all alternative coins.

It's a given that the growth won't be a steady upward trajectory; instead, there will be significant downturns and reversals, which will become more pronounced as the market reaches its peak. If Coinbureau's forecasts about dominance hold true, altcoins may experience prolonged periods at or near their record highs, unlike in past cycles. Conversely, this implies that they will face similar declines during the next downturn in the cryptocurrency bear market.

However, a catch could be that this phenomenon may be limited to well-established alternative cryptocurrencies like Ethereum, which have already inspired their own exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and could consequently exhibit the previously mentioned dynamics: unexpected high points, reduced volatility in downturns and potentially propped up by central banks. 

How Can You Take Advantage of Potential Gains?

It is essential to be aware of upcoming opportunities to maximize potential profits. There are three critical steps to take advantage of these gains. The initial step involves recognizing the key narratives expected to dominate the upcoming cryptocurrency bull market. This article explores the narratives likely to experience significant growth in the next bullish cycle.

Your next step is establishing a presence on the most suitable cryptocurrency trading platforms. The third is to remember that not all altcoins will surge in value simultaneously. If you notice specific cryptocurrencies surging in a particular narrative, avoid rushing to invest in them. Look for other cryptocurrencies within that narrative that have yet to experience a rally. 

Likewise, if your portfolio's cryptocurrencies are underperforming compared to the broader market, they may be experiencing a temporary delay. While it's true that some may never recover if you've conducted thorough research, likely, this won't be the case, and they'll eventually catch up.

This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

 

Editor and Chief Markethive: Deb Williams. (Australia) I thrive on progress and champion freedom of speech.  I embrace "Change" with a passion, and my purpose in life is to enlighten people to accept and move forward with enthusiasm. Find me at my Markethive Profile Page | My Twitter Account | and my LinkedIn Profile.

 

 

 

 

 

Tim Moseley

Gold Price News: Gold Ends Higher As Bond Yields Ease

Gold Price News: Gold Ends Higher As Bond Yields Ease

gold-news-feature-image-Gold-Ends-Higher-As-Bond-Yields-Ease

Gold prices ended slightly higher on Thursday in a volatile session, after falling US treasury yields helped lift prices back up off an earlier low.

Prices initially fell as low as $2,323 an ounce before rebounding strongly to reach $2,352 an ounce later in the session. That compared with around $2,339 an ounce in late trades on Wednesday.

pic

US 10-year treasury bond yields fell back on Thursday, easing from a four-week high seen on Wednesday, and helping gold rebound off the earlier lows to notch up a slight day-on-day gain.

US economic data came in on Thursday which was mostly in line with market expectations, providing little convincing impetus for gold prices.

US GDP growth figures for Q1 came in at 1.3%, level with expectations, while weekly initial jobless claims figures came in at 219,000 in the week to May 25, very close to an expected figure of 218,000.

Elsewhere, data from interest rate traders indicates an expected probability that the first US interest rate cut will come in November. This compares with expectations earlier in the year that the US Fed would start cutting rates before the summer, and make up to three cuts in 2024 in total. That now looks much less likely, as central banks are under pressure to maintain existing rates to bring inflation down towards target levels.

Meanwhile, Chinese investment demand for physical gold has been strong in recent months, with Chinese gold exchange-traded products showing inflows for five consecutive months, according to a May report by asset management company WisdomTree: WisdomTree Gold Monthly GB | WisdomTree Europe. April was the strongest month on record, attracting $1.3 billion and pushing total assets under management to a historical high of $6.4 billion, it said.

Looking ahead, the markets will be watching out for the US Core PCE Price Index figures for April on Friday, which are expected to show a 0.3% gain in April compared with March.

Kitco Media

Frank Watson

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Market experts and retail traders align once again with a majority predicting gold price recovery

Market experts and retail traders align once again with a majority predicting gold price recovery

Kitco NEWS has a diverse team of journalists reporting on the economy, stock markets, commodities, cryptocurrencies, mining and metals with accuracy and objectivity. Our goal is to help people make informed market decisions through in-depth reporting, daily market roundups, interviews with prominent industry figures, comprehensive coverage (often exclusive) of important industry events and analyses of market-affecting developments.

While gold prices did manage to move higher during the first half of the shortened Memorial Day week, the days were mostly characterized by a march toward Friday’s PCE report, with precious metals investors looking to the Fed’s preferred inflation metric to gauge the likely path of interest rates, and the prospects for further gains for gold.

After opening the week trading at $2,334 per ounce, spot gold managed to hit a high just a couple of dollars short of $2,360 during Monday's Memorial Day holiday, but it failed to hold above $2,350 during the evening session. The return of American markets the following morning brought renewed enthusiasm for the precious metal, driving it to the weekly high of $2,361.45 by noon Tuesday. But once again, the bulls ran out of momentum and overnight trading saw the price fall precipitously, which began gold's steady decline to a new weekly low of $2,325.06 early Thursday morning.

The precious metal bounced hard off this level, however, and by the start of Thursday's North American session, gold was once again within a dollar of $2,350 per ounce. Thereafter began the wait for Friday morning’s PCE report, which brought renewed drama to precious metals markets, driving gold from $2,344 per ounce a half hour before the 8:30 am release to its daily high of $2,359.72 15 minutes afterward.

But as had been the case on Monday and Tuesday, the bulls once again ran themselves to exhaustion, and gold prices fell all the way to a fresh weekly low of $2,320.59 per ounce shortly after 3:00 pm EDT.

The latest Kitco News Weekly Gold Survey has industry experts and retail traders aligned on gold’s near-term prospects, with a majority seeing gains while equal minorities hold a neutral or negative position.

“I’m sticking with up for this week as sellers had an open door to force a breakdown and they haven’t been able to,” said James Stanley, senior market strategist at Forex.com. “The weekly bar in spot Gold is showing as a doji and there remains a lot of support structure underneath current price, and that’s what sellers were unable to drive through this week. And gold futures finished with a bearish engulf in the prior week and that similarly failed to show follow-through.”

“We could be nearing a turn,” Stanley added, “but until that support structure is violated, I’m going to bias with what’s been the dominant trend.”

“Up,” said Adrian Day, President of Adrian Day Asset Management. “Gold still has further to go in its recovery from the mid-month drop, and somewhat cooler inflation numbers in the U.S. will help support the case for the Federal Reserve to cut rates.”

Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, said he’s adopting a neutral stance for next week. “Rangebound for now, with risk slightly skewed to the upside,” he said.

“Down,” said Darin Newsom, Senior Market Analyst at Barchart.com. “While the more active August futures contract has technically completed its 3-wave short-term downtrend, it is not showing a bullish reversal pattern through early Friday morning. This leaves the door open to continued pressure early next week. However, technical analysis has to come with an asterisk given the increased chance of chaos tied to China and Russia this coming weekend. As a safe-haven market, this could spark new buying in gold markets ahead of Friday’s close.”

Sean Lusk, co-director of commercial hedging at Walsh Trading, was unpacking the different factors that led to the gold price decline on Friday.

“’m bullish still… I’m a little surprised,” he said about the pullback. “We're at month-end here, so how much of this is just some unwinding? You had a lot of longs in the June contract, so I understand that, prior to option expiration and first notice, you've had a retreat in price. That wasn't a surprise, it was expected.”

“I think interest rates for near term here may have topped, and I think if you have that, you're going to pressure the dollar, and maybe [gold prices] start to work back higher,” Lusk said. “However, Chinese manufacturing came out weak, which hit copper. Some of the industrial metals have given back here, but silver's still holding $30 on the break.”

“I just feel that these breaks are eventually going to be buying opportunities across the board,” he added, looking at the commodities complex as a whole. “You just can't get any traction in crude oil. And there's some real worry about the equities. They've come off here quite a bit, particularly the Dow Jones hitting over 40,000, we just broke 2000 points. NASDAQ has just gotten whacked here. So I don't know… if this starts to leg lower in the equities, does it pull everything else with it? That's the issue.”

“All this talk of raising rates, let's just throw that out,” Lusk said. “I think we go back to more of the buy-the-dips mentality here in commodities overall. Bond yields are going to start to come off here a little bit, I think the tops are in. I just think that with housing, pending home sales, nothing's moving, and I don't see that getting any better until rates come down a little bit. They're going to bring the talk back to rate cuts rather than rate hikes, which is really what turned the stock market around recently.”

“We're going to get another whole slew of data here,” Lusk added. “I think we're going to have a shift change in sentiment coming soon, given the fact that maybe yields have topped, and futures are going to get a lift, and that's going to put pressure on the dollar where rallies are sold in the dollar.”

This week, 10 Wall Street analysts participated in the Kitco News Gold Survey, and a solid majority have returned to the bullish camp with six experts, representing 60%, expecting to see gold prices climb higher next week. Two analysts, or 20%, predicted a price decline, and the same number see gold trending sideways as it waits for direction during the coming week.

Meanwhile, 222 votes were cast in Kitco’s online poll, with Main Street investors mirroring expert sentiment this week. 128 retail traders, or 58%, look for gold prices to rise next week. Another 53, or 24%, expect they will be lower, while 41 respondents, representing the remaining 18%, expect prices to remain rangebound during the week ahead.

Next week promises a return to a more normal rhythm of economic news releases. On Monday, markets will receive the S&P global manufacturing PMI and the ISM manufacturing PMI for May. Then on Wednesday, the Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate decision, with economists predicting a quarter-point cut, and shortly afterward, markets will receive the ISM services PMI for May.

Thursday morning brings the ECB interest rate decision, with markets priced in for a 25 basis point cut to the benchmark interest rate, along with weekly jobless claims. And Friday morning, markets will await the release of May's nonfarm payrolls report.

“The week ahead features possible rate cuts by the ECB and the Bank of Canada, and US jobs data,” said Marc Chandler, Managing Director at Bannockburn Global Forex. “Spot gold consolidated between roughly $2322 and $2364 last week. Still, it has advanced in five of the last six sessions. The momentum indicators look poised to turn higher.”

“I like it higher,” Chandler said. “A move above $2372 could signal a retest on $2400.”

Everett Millman, Chief Market Analyst at Gainesville Coins, was looking past this week’s near-term volatility to the medium-term drivers that are likely to dominate gold’s price action between now and the fall.

“I definitely agree that the end-of-month volatility we're seeing is typical,” he said. “That's more of a trading dynamic than anything else, so I don't think it speaks very strongly to what's driving the gold market overall.”

“It is true that the summer season is usually quite bad for gold,” Millman said. “Those are the dog days of summer where typically we expect to see gold prices, at minimum trade sideways, if not drift lower. But that's under normal circumstances. I think that much of what gold has done this year bucks the normal trend on every front. The Fed has been consistently hawkish and rate cut expectations seem to be fluctuating. They definitely have been volatile in their own right. So I think it's difficult to point toward a direct line between Fed expectations and what gold is doing.”

Millman said his general take is that gold is responding to the uncertainty surrounding the rate path itself, rather than any sense of what that path might be.

“If we go from 70 percent expectation of a September rate cut to 30 percent, back and forth, it speaks to the fact that the market still doesn't have a strong hold on what it expects the Fed to do,” he said. “I think that will be the big story over the summer. How do the Fed rate cut expectations change between now and when we get closer to September? I don't think anybody really knows. You could make a pretty compelling argument that even the FOMC members don't seem to know exactly where things are going to go.”

Millman said that in the absence of anything else changing, the gold market will continue to try to read the collective mind of the Fed. “Obviously, all of the macro geopolitical factors are still there, but I think gold has mostly baked in all of that stuff, he said. “That's why we're still sitting above $2,300 now.”

“Fed policy, and how the economy holds up, I think, is going to be the big driver over the summer for gold.”

“Bull,” said Mark Leibovit, publisher of the VR Metals/Resource Letter. “Hanging in there.”

“We are likely in higher timeframe bearish correction against the move up from 19001,” said Michael Moor, Founder of Moor Analytics. “The trade below 24343 (+1.3 tics per/hour) has brought in $113.5 of pressure. These roll into the (Q) and are ON HOLD. In (Q) we are currently holding exhaustion warned about at 23447 with a 23433 low and have rallied $30.4. The trade above 23594 (-6 per/hour) now warns of decent strength. Decent trade back below where this comes in at 23452 (-6 tics per/hour starting at 9:20 am EST) will warn of decent pressure and take bear calls OFF HOLD.”

And Kitco Senior Analyst Jim Wyckoff sees gold prices staging a recovery next week. “Steady-higher as charts still bullish,” he said.

Spot gold last traded at $2,327.20 per ounce at the time of writing, down 0.69% on the day and down 0.29% on the week.

Kitco Media

Ernest Hoffman

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Gold Price Forecast June 2024

Gold Price Forecast – June 2024

Key Takeaways

Gold Hits Another High in Bumpy Markets

Gold Rises on Growing Geopolitical Tension

US Rate Headwinds Persist, but Euro to the Rescue

Technical Analysis

Key Drivers in June

Mike Ingram

Gold News

Market Analysis
 

Key Takeaways

Gold appears to be one of the few assets that reflects rising geopolitical risk, reaching another all-time high.

The European Central Bank is now set to lead interest rates and the US dollar lower.

Gold’s technical position is currently critically poised as it negotiates a potential bear flag.

Gold Hits Another High in Bumpy Markets

Gold was essentially flat in volatile trading in May, reaching yet another all-time high above $2,400/toz in the latter half of the month before profit-taking set in, triggered by a more hawkish US rate outlook.

Gold Rises on Growing Geopolitical Tension

Rising geopolitical risk continues to be a major support for gold. May saw a further round of trade sanctions between the US and China, ostensibly aimed at curtailing import dumping and protecting domestic manufacturing. China also retaliated to US measures targeting China’s support of the Russian war in Ukraine, with sanctions targeting US support of both Ukraine and Taiwan. In Taiwan itself, China launched surprise military exercises aimed at harassing the inauguration of Taiwan’s new pro-independence president.

Meanwhile, in Europe, Russia has made advances in a surprise Spring offensive against Ukraine and the conflict in the Middle East has continued to escalate. Both have exposed deep divisions within the international community and are set to play a part in the forthcoming elections in Europe, the UK, and the US. There are no clear markers for an abatement of these risks – in fact, quite the opposite.
 

Despite this proliferation of geopolitical tension, there is little sign that this is uniformly priced into asset markets. Crude oil prices softened over the month, while it appears investor flows still favour risky assets (equities, cyclicals, and high-yield debt) in the face of global instability and despite institutional investors citing geopolitics as a ‘tail risk’. It remains to be seen how this apparent inconsistency will be resolved.
 

US Rate Headwinds Persist, but Euro to the Rescue

The prospect of the US starting to cut interest rates took a further backstep in recent weeks, with inflation and growth data within the most recent US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) causing investors particular concern. Supported by continued hawkish Fed minutes and rhetoric, markets have further pared their expectations of a rate cut by September’s meeting to c. 45%, according to CME FedWatch.

 

Despite this, we note that US bond markets have ended the month much as they started and it is arguable that with so little now priced in, the scope for a further bearish rate impact on gold is now limited. Moreover, it now seems likely that it is the European Central Bank (ECB), rather than the Fed, that will lead the global interest rate cycle downwards, with a rate cut seen as coming as early as the ECB’s 6 June meeting.

Markets have reacted by marking up the Euro some 2% against the US Dollar over the last month, which is somewhat supportive of gold.

Technical Analysis

Momentum indicators suggested that gold entered May mildly oversold, and these quickly recovered in the first half of the month. However, gold reached overbought territory on 20 May while registering another all-time high at $2,445/toz. This was confirmed by a subsequent steep decline, bottoming out on 24 May near $2,325/toz, breaking both the 100-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages.

Gold is currently struggling to negotiate a bear flag, in a range of $2,341/toz – $2,359/toz. A break below the previous low of $2,325/toz, might imply further downside towards $2,300/toz and $2,270/toz based on Fibonacci retracements of the break from the high. Proximate resistance is seen at the current 50-day 100-day Simple Moving Averages at $2,360/toz and $2,381/toz respectively.
 

Key Drivers in June

Key data points that will impact gold’s technical position going forward include the US Manufacturing PMI on 3 June, ECB rate decision on 6 June, US Non-Farm Payrolls on 7 June, the Fed rate decision – and more importantly the corresponding updates to economic forecasts and ‘dot plot’ – together with a raft of US inflation data, all on 12 June.

Gary Wagner

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Gold Tumbles as Stronger Dollar Rising Yields Cast Doubt on 2023 Rate Cuts

Gold Tumbles as Stronger Dollar, Rising Yields Cast Doubt on 2023 Rate Cuts

Gold prices fell sharply on Thursday, as U.S. dollar gains and climbing Treasury yields sparked concerns over the Federal Reserve's anticipated path of interest rate cuts this year.

The precious metal's decline came ahead of a critical inflation report due on Friday, with investors bracing for potential surprises that could force the Fed to recalibrate its monetary policy outlook.

At the center of attention is the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for April, set to be released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The core PCE is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, capturing changes in consumer spending across a wide range of goods and services.

Treasury yields surged on Thursday, reflecting muted demand at this week's $183 billion bond auctions, as investors grew wary of persistent inflationary pressures amid improving economic growth prospects.

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari's comments, which did not rule out another rate hike, had a strong impact on market sentiment. Yields climb, with the 10-year note yield reaching a one-month high of 5.471% and the 2-year note yielding 4.958%.

According to the CME's FedWatch tool, markets are pricing in a near-certainty that the Fed will maintain its current benchmark interest rate of 5.25%-5.5% at the June meeting. However, the probability shifts substantially in favor of rate cuts later in the year, with a 12.3% chance of a cut in July and a 47% chance in September.

As of 6:50 PM ET, the gold futures contract for August 2024 is currently fixed at $2,359, down $15.20 or 0.64%, and an additional decline of $4.70 (0.20 %) in Australia. The U.S. dollar index gained 0.51% to 105.164, a major factor in gold’s price decline today.

All eyes are now on Friday's PCE report, which will likely shape the Fed's future policy decisions. Market participants are also eagerly awaiting the central bank's updated economic projections and "dot plot" forecasts for interest rates, due after the June 12 FOMC meeting. The current "dot plot" envisions three rate cuts this year, a scenario that could be revised based on incoming data.

Kitco Media

Gary Wagner

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Altseason Earthquake

XRP, Solana, Ether, Cardano, Shiba Inu Poised For $1 Trillion Altseason Earthquake

By Olivia Brooke – May 29, 2024

Market participants are observing a turnaround in the cryptocurrency market. While Bitcoin has continued to sustain its bullish momentum, the apex cryptocurrency isn’t the star of the show; altcoins are. Per analysts’ sentiments, altcoins Ether , XRP , Solana , DOGE , Cardano , and Shiba Inu are gearing up for a massive price rally.

On many occasions, during a market cycle, altcoins have historically outperformed Bitcoin, and analysts are convinced that market indicators are now collectively validating a highly promising run referred to as altcoin season.

Pseudonymous analyst CryptoJelleNL was one the first key players to note that technical, analytical data has flashed a positive signal for altcoins.

Further strengthening this position, a crypto analytics platform CryptoQuant analyst asserts that the altcoin season could kick off much earlier than the market anticipates.

Should Ethereum’s price follow a particular trajectory, altcoins could easily flip Bitcoin’s run in the coming weeks.

“Ethereum is surpassing Bitcoin in the growth of open interest in the current period. Are we approaching altcoin season? If Ethereum’s price continues to consolidate in the current range, it’s very possible that the altcoin season will start sooner than expected.” the analyst wrote.

On-chain activities validate the market’s bullish outlook on altcoins

Meanwhile, a handful of altcoins seem to have met and surpassed market expectations. ETH being one such asset, has been on the run since the SEC gave its stamp to Ethereum ETF applications.

Last week, ETH soared by 22% as the hype of Ethereum-based ETFs soared. ETH’s futures market has also depicted remarkable activity. CryptoQuant notes that the preference for Ethereum has been spotlighted in “the increase in the ETH-BTC Open Interest ratio from 0.54 to 0.67.”

Even more importantly, permanent ETH holders are making purchases of more than 100,000 ETH, the highest daily level observed since 2023.

Similarly, DOGE, the most valued meme coin by market cap, is preparing to test new resistance levels.

As cryptocurrency analyst Ali Chart explained in a recent post shared with X:

“Dogecoin is encountering significant resistance between $0.166 and $0.171, where 75,500 addresses have acquired nearly 10 billion $DOGE. However, once this barrier is overcome, #DOGE has the potential to double, with the next key resistance around $0.322.”

The on-chain movement also highlights crypto whales and sharks’ heightened accumulation of altcoins like ETH, XRP, SOL, ADA, and LINK.

DISCLAIMER The views expressed in the article are wholly those of the author and do not represent those of, nor should they be attributed to, ZyCrypto. This article is not meant to give financial advice. Please carry out your own research before investing in any of the various cryptocurrencies available.

The original article written by Olivia Brooke and posted on Zycrypto.com.

Article reposted on Markethive by Jeffrey Sloe

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Tim Moseley

Gold futures shine bright with a strong gain forming a 3 river morning star

Gold futures shine bright with a strong gain, forming a "3 river morning star"

Gold futures shine bright with a strong gain, forming a "3 river morning star" teaser image

Gold futures rebounded strongly after last week's price pullback. As of 4:55 PM ET, gold futures for the June 2024 contract surged $27.10, settling at $2,361.80.

With the June contract nearing its first notice day, the August 2024 gold futures contract will soon become the most actively traded. Currently, the August 2024 contract is up $27.40, trading at $2,384.30. Multiple factors have been driving gold's ascent to record highs. While some analysts attribute the precious metal's rally to dollar weakness and declining U.S. Treasury yields, our analysis suggests that geopolitical and macroeconomic influences have played a more significant role.

Ongoing military conflicts in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine war continue to fuel geopolitical uncertainty, bolstering gold's safe-haven appeal.

Additionally, central banks worldwide have been steadily increasing their gold holdings over the past two years, with China's central bank among the most aggressive buyers.

China's consumer demand has also been a major catalyst for gold's recent surge. According to UBS, "A significant driver of the surge in gold prices has been the robust increase in China's gold demand, particularly evident in the first quarter of 2024.

Chinese consumers have demonstrated an unprecedented appetite for gold jewelry, with purchases reaching record levels. This surge in demand from China has significantly contributed to the upward trajectory of gold prices and is expected to continue supporting prices in the near term."

Gold investors and traders have remained active buyers on price dips, supporting the precious metal's pricing at these new highs.

On the daily chart, a simple Japanese candlestick pattern called a "Three River Morning Star" has emerged. This pattern, formed after a price decline, can be a strong indication of a key reversal from bearish to bullish.

The pattern consists of a large red candlestick within a defined downtrend, followed by a small-bodied candle (either red or green) that opens and closes below the first red candle. The final candle is a large green candle that opens above the middle candle and closes above the center of the body of the first candle.

With gold's recent strength and the formation of this bullish reversal pattern, the precious metal's upward momentum could continue to shine in the coming sessions.
 

Kitco Media

Gary Wagner

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Effective Strategies for Making Money Online Without Excessive Work

Effective Strategies for Making Money Online Without Excessive Work

These are some ideas that will make it easy to generate income online.

Those who work hardest often achieve great success. While it may require many hours each day to earn a significant amount of money, the results can be impressive. This guide will help you with ideas for making money online without working excessively hard.

These are some ideas that will make it easy to generate income online

BEFORE DECIDING: GENERATE INCOME ONLINE

Before deciding to provide them practically any information or dedication, you should take the time to carefully examine any website that you find online. When there are multiple options to earn money from just behind a check, however, there will be a good number of unscrupulous individuals prepared to take advantage of the situation. It is important to be aware of the owner of a website, to be certain that the website is safe, and to first observe what other people have to say about it.

KEEP IN MIND: GENERATE INCOME ONLINE

Keep in mind that making money online is a game that will endure forever! When it comes to the flow of income made through the internet, nothing happens fast. The process of constructing your choice will take some time. Try not to become disheartened. You might be able to make a significant improvement if you work on it every day. The keys to success will be achieved through a combination of perseverance and determination!

ecosystem for entrepreneurs

You may try conducting some research on the internet. You will not make as much money as you would with certain other types of online work. This is because the amount of money you make will be significantly lower. In most cases, these online surveys do not require a significant amount of time, and as a result, they typically only ask for your opinion. Individuals' cents can soon add up to a small bit of extra money if they enroll in a legitimate questionnaire website.

THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SELLING SOME OF THE DIGITAL PHOTOS

If you create digital photos, you can sell them online to attract customers. Start by posting your products on Craigslist or a smaller website to gauge interest. If you build a large following, consider moving to a more popular site.

TAKE INTO CONSIDERATION THE ACTIVITIES

Take into consideration the activities that you are already engaged in, whether they are responsibilities or interests, and look for advice on how to put those skills to use on the internet. In the event that you manufacture clothing for your children, you should make a couple of each and every item, and then offer the extras on the international market. Do you enjoy baking? If you make your skills available to people through a website, they will be more likely to hire you.

TAKE INTO CONSIDERATION THE POSSIBILITY OF PURCHASING AND SELLING INTERNET DOMAIN NAMES

Take into consideration the possibility of purchasing and selling internet domain names, unless you are interested in investing a significant amount of money into your internet business. Most of the time, you should invest in a domain while its value is at its rock and roll bottom. After that, you should sell it off for any profit you can get. Important to keep in mind that you should look for information and figure out which domain names are currently looking for.

If you want to make money online, join relevant forums and blogs. Spend 20% of your time learning about the internet industry and 80% managing it. Reading weblogs is a fun way to learn about new opportunities and helpful tips.

IF YOU ARE INTERESTED IN MAKING ADDITIONAL MONEY

If you want to earn extra money, consider signing up for a data entry job. These jobs take time, but they can add up over time and don't require a lot of expertise. Plus, you can work from home, which is a great benefit.

ecosystem for entrepreneurs

Though putting in a lot of effort may offer you a lot of rewards, putting in a lot of effort properly will provide you the task-existence steadiness you have been dreaming of. With the help of these suggestions, you will be able to improve the effectiveness of your work done online. Consider putting each and every one of these suggestions into action right now because the more effective they are, the more of an impact you will obtain from putting them into action. website on the internet

https://rtateblogspot.com/2024/05/18/how-allsolutionsnetwork-com-works/

Tim Moseley

Gold and silver both poised to resume uptrend after last week’s correction Saxo’s Larsson

Gold and silver both poised to resume uptrend after last week’s correction – Saxo’s Larsson

Precious metals saw a sharp bearish correction last week, but prices are rebounding this week with silver leading the pack, according to Kim Cramer Larsson, Technical Analyst at Saxo Bank.

“Gold (XAUUSD) seems to be bouncing from the cloud (shaded area—the Ichimoku Cloud) between the 0.618 and the 0.786 retracement, and the minor support at around 2,326,” Larsson wrote. “A dip down to the 0.786 retracement at 2,314 could still occur before rebounding.

Larsson said that if the gold price breaks above $2,385 per ounce, the prior uptrend is likely back on track with potential to target $2,500. “The 55-day moving average will add to the bullish support,” he said, whereas “A close below 2,277 confirms a downtrend.”

He added that the RSI is indicating a divergence, which suggests that the uptrend could be in exhaustion mode. “However, a close back above the 60 threshold and above the upper falling trendline would be a strong indication of another bullish push in gold,” he said.

Turning to silver, Larsson noted that spot silver (XAGUSD) has bounced from the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement at $30 per ounce, and he believes the gray metal is likely to resume its uptrend.

“Daily RSI is still showing positive sentiment with no divergence, indicating silver could push to levels above 32.52,” he wrote.

Looking at the weekly chart, Larsson said that “If it takes out 32.52, there is no strong resistance until around 34.40–35.40.”

“A break below 30 could continue the correction down to the 0.618 retracement at 28.50,” he concluded.

Gold prices are continuing to hold their earlier gains, with spot gold last trading at $2,351.37 per ounce for a gain of 0.74% on the session.


 

Silver, meanwhile, continues to lead the metals complex on Monday, with spot silver last trading at $31.522 per ounce, up nearly 4 full percentage points on the daily chart.

Kitco Media

Ernest Hoffman

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

The Artist that came out of the Winter