Gold prices remain above $2,300 as investors bet on Fed rate cut

After hitting a new all-time record high of $2325.30 gold futures basis the most active June contract has experienced a slight price decline today. As of 5:05 PM EDT the June contract is currently fixed at $2308.50, down $6.50, or -0.28%.

Gold futures pricing was supported today as investors continued to bet on interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve later this year. The precious metal's safe-haven appeal also received a boost amid growing geopolitical tensions.

Despite the modest pullback, expectations of the Fed lowering interest rates in the coming months remained elevated. In a speech at the Stanford Graduate School of Business, Fed Chair Jerome Powell confirmed the central bank's resolve to bring inflation back down to the 2% target, but emphasized that the overall economic landscape is still positive.

Powell highlighted the economy's robust growth, resilient labor market, and gradually moderating inflation, saying, "We do not expect that it will be appropriate to lower our policy rate until we have greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably down toward 2%. Given the strength of the economy and progress on inflation so far, we have time to let the incoming data guide our decisions on policy."

While the Fed chair and other officials stressed the need for more data before cutting rates, a move financial markets widely expect in June, investors remained convinced that rate reductions are on the horizon. Futures markets are currently pricing in around a 60% chance of a rate cut at the Fed's June meeting, with expectations for a total of 75 basis points of cuts by the end of the year.

The case for a more accommodative Fed policy stance was further bolstered by recent economic data, including an unexpected surge in U.S. jobless claims and slower services industry growth. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank's (ECB) latest meeting minutes showed officials saw a stronger case for beginning their rate-cutting cycle.

In addition to the rate-cut bets, gold prices found support from safe-haven demand amid heightened geopolitical risks. Strong central bank buying, particularly from emerging market economies, also contributed to the precious metal's appeal.

Looking ahead, all eyes will be on the U.S. jobs report for March, scheduled for release on Friday, April 5. Economists predict the economy added 200,000 jobs last month, with the unemployment rate dropping to 3.8% and hourly earnings rising 0.3%. A softer-than-expected report could further fuel expectations of an imminent Fed pivot

Wishing you as always good trading,

Kitco Media

Gary Wagner

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Gold Futures Breach and Close Above $2300 for the First Time

In a historic move, gold futures surged past the $2300 mark for the first time in history. As of 4:30 PM EDT, gold futures basis the most active June contract is currently at a record high of $2318.90. The June contract opened at $2301.70 and traded to an intraday high of $2319.70. The precious metal's rally showed no signs of slowing down, with the June 2024 contract currently fixed at $2319.10 after factoring in today’s gain of $37.30, or 1.63%, marking the seventh consecutive trading day of gains.

This remarkable surge has been fueled by a combination of factors, chief among them being the growing expectations that central banks, including the Federal Reserve, are preparing to lower interest rates as inflation cools down. Chairman Jerome Powell, in his address to the Stanford Business, Government, and Society Forum, hinted at the possibility of rate cuts, stating that a lower interest rate would likely be appropriate "at some point this year" if the economy develops as expected. This statement heightened expectations for a Fed rate cut in June.

Traders and investors alike are closely watching the Federal Reserve's moves, with the CME's FedWatch tool indicating a 63% probability of the central bank initiating its first rate cut in June. This potential shift in monetary policy has further fueled gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset and an inflation hedge.

The weakening U.S. dollar has also played a significant role in gold's ascent. The dollar index dipped 0.48% to 104.324.

Technical analysis also suggests that gold's rally may continue. A bullish pattern known as a “bull flag” was identified in mid-March, pointing to a potential target of $2327 for this current leg of the rally. The projection is based on measuring the price differential from the beginning to the end of the “pole”. The pole began on Thursday, February 29 when gold futures were fixed at $2058.20, and concluded on or about March 11 at $2215, for a price increase of $157. We then calculated from the bottom of the “flag” which occurred at $2170 on March 17, and we added $157 to get our target, the same distance as the “pole”.

Market participants and investors seek refuge amid economic uncertainties and central banks grapple with inflation, gold's status as a reliable store of value has once again been solidified. With its historic breach of the $2300 barrier, if you were not paying attention to gold before you probably are now.

Wishing you as always good trading,

Kitco Media

Gary Wagner

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Multiple factors combined takes June gold futures to a new benchmark, $2300

As of 4:55 PM EDT the most active June contract of gold futures is fixed at $2300.60, up $28.100. This marks the sixth consecutive day of gains for the precious yellow metal, with the last four trading sessions culminating in new record closes.

During the past five days, gold managed to overcome the headwinds of four days of dollar strength, which typically dampens the appeal of the yellow metal. Also, gold was able to overcome rising yields in U.S. Treasuries, which also lessens the allure for gold.

The dollar's strength today can be attributed to a recent report revealing that U.S. manufacturing grew for the first time in 1 ½ years in March. Data from the U.S. showed that the country's factory orders rebounded more-than-anticipated, and the number of job openings slightly beat estimates in February, indicating the strength of the U.S. economy and narrowing the window for the Fed to start reducing interest rates.

Gold's recent gains also occurred as the CME's FedWatch tool lowered the probability of a rate cut in June from 60% to 58%. Last week the probability of a rate cut in June was at 70%, highlighting the shifting expectations surrounding the Fed's monetary policy stance.

Geopolitical tensions have also played a role in accelerating the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Growing conflicts in the Middle East, particularly an Israeli airstrike on Iran's embassy in Syria, have heightened concerns. Iran has vowed to retaliate against Israel for the attack on the Iranian embassy compound in Damascus, further elevating geopolitical uncertainty.

Supply constraints have also contributed to gold's recent surge. Central banks globally have been actively adding gold bullion to their reserves, diminishing available supply. Additionally, momentum hedge funds have been actively taking long positions in gold futures, further fueling the rally.

Moreover, rising oil prices have added to the demand for gold, as higher energy costs translate to heightened inflationary pressures down the road, making the precious metal an attractive hedge against inflation.

With a confluence of factors driving its ascent, gold's resilience and appeal have taken the most active June future’s contract above $2300 for the first time in history.

Wishing you as always good trading,

Kitco Media

Gary Wagner

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Gold price hits new record highs as the West loses price-setting powers: Frank Giustra & Pierre Lassonde on new geopolitical reality & resource nationalism

As gold set another record high, Canadian mining legends Frank Giustra, CEO of Fiore Group, and Pierre Lassonde, Chairman Emeritus at Franco-Nevada, say the West has lost its power to set the price of gold. Giustra and Lassonde also warn that in the new geopolitical reality of resource nationalism, Canada is failing its economy and citizens.

With gold futures hitting another record high of above $2,264 an ounce at the start of the second quarter, Giustra and Lassonde pointed to a major shift in the gold market.

"The world hasn't woken up yet. The marginal buyer of gold is no longer the U.S. It's no longer Europe. It's China. Between the country's central bank and the Chinese public, China takes up over two-thirds of all the annual production. They are the new marginal buyer. That's where the gold price is set," Lassonde told Michelle Makori, Lead Anchor and Editor-in-Chief at Kitco News, during Kitco Insights Interactive Mining Titans' Power Panel.

For what this means for the U.S. dollar and gold this year and beyond, watch the video above.

BRICS Plus, which now includes Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates, can get up one morning and say they are going "to back their collective new currency with gold," which they can now set to create more credit and reserves, Giustra pointed out.

A coordinated move by the BRICS Plus against the U.S. dollar could lead to violent results, he warned.

"No one wants war, but here's the problem — the U. S. is facing an existential threat. It's a national security issue," Giustra said. "If there's a sudden move towards replacing the U.S. dollar, meaning perhaps a BRICS announcement of a new currency [backed by] gold, I think then it would react quite violently.

Giustra also outlined the top geopolitical risks for 2024. For insights, watch the video above.

Has Canada lost the battle for resources?

Securing critical metals for the energy transition has become a matter of national security for many countries. However, Canada is losing this battle, according to Giustra and Lassonde.

While many countries are facing massive metal shortages, Canada is distracted with overseas investments. For example, Canadian pension funds that represent CAD$2.7 trillion of Canadian savings have more invested in China than they do in Canada, which is unforgivable, Giustra and Lassonde told Kitco News.

More specifically, Canadian pension funds have less than 3% of their total assets invested in Canadian public companies, down from 28% in 2000.

"When you look at the mineral sector in Canada, it's been totally ignored by the government for the last 40 years. Our politicians, both at the federal and the provincial level, couldn't care less about the mining industry," Lassonde said. "Frank says we could lose the race. We've already lost the race."

Giustra pointed out that bold action is required to solve this crisis, but Canada lacks visionary leadership.

"Canada is endowed as one of the most prolific mineral countries on the planet, the second largest landmass in the world, and largely unexplored. [However], there is almost zero investment in the Canadian mineral sector. It's worrisome. Canada's in danger of losing out in this race for critical minerals," he said.

On what this all means for Canada's economy and some of the irreversible consequences, watch the video above.

This panel is brought to you by Eagle Plains Resources.

Eagle Plains is a mineral exploration company operating for 30 years with over 50 projects in Western Canada. The company has over $7M cash, generates significant revenue, has only 115M shares outstanding, and has never been rolled back.

Kitco Media

Michelle Makori

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Gold price solidly up, very near all-time highs

Gold prices are sharply up in midday U.S. trading Thursday, near the daily highs, and are closing in on the recent record highs. Silver prices are modestly higher. More technical buying is featured in both metals, amid bullish charts. June gold was last up $27.10 at $2,239.90. May silver was last up $0.198 at $24.95.

It was a very busy U.S. data release schedule Thursday, but none of the data contained big surprises and the markets showed no major reactions. U.S. markets are closed Friday for the Good Friday holiday but personal income and outlays, including PCE inflation data, will be released that day.

Today is the last U.S. trading day of the week, of the month and of the quarter, which makes it an important trading day from a technical chart perspective. Gold today is set to close at a very bullish weekly, monthly and quarterly high close today, as well as a record high close in futures markets.

U.S. stock indexes are mixed at midday. The U.S. stock indexes continue on a slow and steady rise and are near their recent record highs.

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said Wednesday recent stronger-than-expected U.S. inflation data is “disappointing” and said that he wants to see “at least a couple months of better inflation data” before cutting, Bloomberg reported. “In my view, it is appropriate to reduce the overall number of rate cuts or push them further into the future in response to the recent data,” Waller said.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher but down from the daily high. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $82.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching around 4.2%.

Technically, the gold futures bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. A five-week-old uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close in June futures above solid resistance at the contract high of $2,246.60. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of $2,170.80. First resistance is seen at the contract high of $2,246.60 and then at $2,250.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $2,207.50 and then at $2,200.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 9.0.

The silver bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but have faded recently. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing May futures prices above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of

$25.975. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $23.50. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $25.055 and then at $25.50. Next support is seen at this week’s low of $24.445 and then at $24.22. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

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Kitco Media

Jim Wyckoff

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley