Gold appears unstoppable as it hits record highs above 2250 capping off a solid month and quarter

Gold appears unstoppable as it hits record highs above $2,250, capping off a solid month and quarter

The gold market continues to be an unstoppable juggernaut as it closes out the month and quarter near a record high, solidly above $2,200 an ounce.

Analysts note that gold’s performance on Thursday, which wraps up a shortened trading week ahead of the Easter long weekend, is even more impressive when compared to the U.S. dollar Index, which is trading near a six-week high above 104 points.

Gold prices last traded at $2,241 an ounce, up 2.7% from last week. For the month, gold is up 9%, and for the quarter, the precious metal is up 8%.

Gold’s further push into blue sky territory also comes ahead of important inflation data. Although markets are closed for Easter, it is not a recognized government holiday, so the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis will be releasing its Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index. According to consensus estimates, economists expect inflation to have risen 0.3% in February.

Some analysts have said that gold is attracting new momentum because inflation is less of a threat than it was. Last week the Federal Reserve signaled that it still looks for three rate cuts this year even as they see inflation holding above its 2% target.

Darin Newsom, Senior Market Analyst at Barchart said that the gold rally is a signal that investors are worried that the Federal Reserve won’t be able to get inflation under control as it starts to cut interest rates.

He added that he also sees gold well supported as a geopolitical risk hedge.

“Geopolitical fears are still out there and will only continue to grow as we approach the November U.S. election,” he said. “If the Fed starts cutting rates, bond yields will fall, which makes gold a more attractive safe-haven.”

At the same time, some analysts note that the U.S. dollar is losing its grip on the gold market as U.S. government debt continues to spiral higher.

“Gold is not expensive. The truth is that the U.S. dollar is cheap as the government floods the global economy with it,” said Julia Khandoshko, CEO at the European broker Mind Money, in an interview with Kitco News.

Although the Federal Reserve has been tightening its balance sheet as part of its aggressive monetary policy, some analysts have noted that the nation’s money supply continues to grow.

David Kranzler, precious metals analyst and creator of the The Mining Stock Journal said in a comment on social media that the U.S. The Monetary Base, as measured by Money Zero Maturity (MZM), is up nearly 10% since March 2023.

“Gold smells a massive money-printing program coming at some point. In fact, low-grade money printing has already occurred,” he said.

MZM represents money readily available within an economy for spending and consumption. and includes M2 money supply, less the time deposits, plus all money market funds.

Regardless of what is driving gold at its record highs, Adam Button, Chief Currency Strategist at Forexlive.com said that he expects this is only the start of the rally.

Despite gold’s historic rally, Button said that the precious metal sector continues to be ignored in the broader marketplace. He added that the mining sector, while off its lows is still significantly undervalued compared to gold prices.

“This quiet rally is extremely encouraging for gold investors,” he said. “This is not an exhausted bull market. The time to sell is when everyone is talking about gold and the miners are taking off.”

Although Button is bullish on gold, he added that investors should wait for a pullback before jumping in. He pointed out that there appears to be some initial support at $2,150 that could attract some buyers.

Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank said that he expects the gold market to have further upside potential. He added that it's more than just momentum that is pushing gold prices higher.

“Gold’s continued ability to withstand headwinds from dollar and yield movements is nothing but impressive and it highlights a market that continues to attract demand making it a relatively easy task for hedge funds to defend their huge long positions,” he said. “My main concern during the past couple of weeks has been the risk of weakness forcing a cascade of long liquidation, but with prices now above $2,200 that risk continues to fade.”

Although gold is ending a shortened trading week on a strong note, next week does present new risks. The economic calendar next week will focus on the U.S. labor market with March’s nonfarm payrolls report on Friday as the highlight.

The week also features a solid lineup of central bank speakers including Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who will be speaking at Stanford's Business, Government, and Society Forum.

Some analysts have said that stronger employment numbers, coupled with stubborn inflation may force the Federal Reserve to push back the start of its approaching easing cycle.

“Macro traders certainly still have scope to add to their gold length — but only if rates market expectations notably firm. This places the onus on upcoming data to corroborate the Fed's outlook for three cuts this year, but continued strength in the data with little change in tone from the FOMC also raises the risk of a buyer's strike in Treasuries, leading to higher rates that could mechanically weigh on the yellow metal through the re-accumulation of macro trader short acquisitions,” said commodity analysts at TD Securities.

Economic data for the week

Monday: ISM Manufacturing PMI

Tuesday: JOLTS job openings

Wednesday: ADP nonfarm employment change, ISM Service Sector PMI, Powell to speak

Thursday: Weekly jobless claims

Friday: Nonfarm payrolls

Kitco Media

Neils Christensen

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

There is a new way to lose weight through alternative medicine

There is a new way to lose weight through alternative medicine

alternative medicine

There is a new way to lose weight through alternative medicine.

When it comes to losing weight, there’s no magic solution. To lose weight and maintain it, you need to be active every day and make changes to your eating habits. Alternative medicine practices can help improve flexibility, boost energy, and potentially reduce body weight.

Not to be too specific, but one of the most popular topics on late-night TV is losing weight. When you’re flipping through channels after 11 PM, you’re bound to come across ads for weight loss pills and diet supplements. Each of these ads claims to help you lose unwanted pounds and get rid of stubborn belly fat forever.

To tell you the truth, if these drugs were effective, the United States of America would not be the most overweight nation in the worldwide rankings.

On the other hand, there are many types of alternative medicine that can help with weight loss. These methods can make you more flexible, boost your energy, and as a result, help you lose weight. While there’s no miracle alternative medicine, following these principles can help you reach your goals.

alternative medicine

LET’S TAKE YOGA AS AN EXAMPLE

Let’s use yoga as an example. The gentle stretching in yoga can help reduce stress, which may decrease the likelihood of overeating due to feelings of sadness or frustration. Acupuncture uses specific points in the ear that can help reduce cravings. Detoxifying teas and herbs can contribute to a sense of well-being, which may lead to a reassessment of unhealthy food choices. In this view, alternative medicine can be a beneficial approach to weight loss.

DETOXIFYING TEAS,

Detox teas, energy pills, and vitamins are the most common alternative medicines for losing weight. However, for safe and long-term weight loss, we should focus on healthy eating and regular exercise. There is no quick fix for weight loss. In reality, we need to change our eating habits and exercise regularly to lose weight and keep it off.

NEVERTHELESS

Nevertheless, in order to prepare you ready for weight loss, here are some detoxifying teas and fascinating supplements that are being offered by alternative medicine.

The turmeric, ginger, and lemon, along with the juice of half a lemon, should be brought to a boil in two cups of water. Each of these ingredients should be around a half teaspoon. You should drink it first thing in the morning as a detoxifier before starting your diet.

The content you provided is already simple and easy to understand.

When you visit a local food co-op or herbalist, they can offer you many different types of alternative teas and advice on nutrition. They can also connect you with a trusted homeopathic doctor who will assess your needs and figure out what specific nutrition you require.

THE ALTERNATIVE MARKET

The alternative market has recently seen the introduction of two dietary supplements: bovine cartilage and shark cartilage. Despite the fact that both have been utilized for a considerable amount of time outside of the United States and Britain, they are currently popular in health food stores.

When it comes to losing weight, hypnosis is a popular form of alternative treatment. It helps change your behavior without relying solely on willpower.

The way hypnosis works is by exploring the unconscious factors that lead you to keep thinking and eating in ways that make you gain weight. Hypnotists believe that if they can ease the underlying cause of obesity, the patient will naturally start losing weight as a result. Unlike expensive spa visits and over-the-counter weight loss medications, hypnosis is a more cost-effective alternative. It can help you release worries that keep you from eating healthily and allow positive energy to flow through you. This will motivate you to continue with a new way of eating and exercise.

Tim Moseley

Mysterious Whale Suddenly Transfers 2000 BTC Mined in 2010 Now Worth Over 140 Million

Mysterious Whale Suddenly Transfers 2,000 BTC Mined in 2010, Now Worth Over $140 Million

By Arnold Kirimi – March 28, 2024

Bitcoin’s mysterious early adopters continue to make waves in the cryptocurrency space as an unidentified individual or entity recently consolidated 2,000 BTC mined in 2010 into a single wallet.

This move, highlighted by developer mononautical on X, underscores the remarkable value appreciation of Bitcoin over the past 14 years, with the 2,000 BTC now worth a staggering $140 million.

This significant transfer of wealth from the early days of Bitcoin mining is a testament to the foresight and patience of these early adopters, who have held onto their coins through volatile market cycles and exponential price increases.

Consolidation of 2,000 BTC Mined in 2010

The consolidation of 2,000 BTC mined in 2010 into a single wallet marks a notable event in Bitcoin’s history. This move involves the transfer of 40 sets of mining rewards, each consisting of 50 BTC, into one wallet.

The sheer size of this transaction underscores the value of Bitcoin’s long-term holding strategy, with Satoshi-era adopters now reaping the rewards of their patience.

Developer mononautical, upon noting the consolidation, commented on the remarkable journey of these early mined coins, which have seen their value skyrocket from a few hundred dollars to $140 million.

This long-term holding strategy highlights the belief early adopters had in the potential of Bitcoin, even during its early days when its value was highly volatile and uncertain.

While some have raised concerns about a compromised key generation or the possibility of a security breach, mononautical clarified that the miner remains unidentified. This suggests that the consolidation may have been a strategic move by the miner, rather than a result of compromised keys.

The fact that the transfer went straight to an over-the-counter (OTC) desk further supports this notion, as it indicates a deliberate decision to liquidate the holdings through official channels.

It’s a familiar phenomenon in the world of cryptocurrency to see long-dormant addresses become active again. Recently, this trend was observed in the Bitcoin market when an address, previously inactive and ranked as the fifth richest in Bitcoin holdings, suddenly showed signs of activity.

This particular address had been funded with 94,500 BTC back in 2019, valued at $6.05 billion at the time. After lying dormant for years, the Bitcoin from this address was recently split and moved to new addresses.

As reported by ZyCrypto, a Bitcoin wallet that remained inactive for over 13 years and nine months recently became active again, reawakening after nearly a decade and a half. This wallet, dating back to Bitcoin’s early days, holds 50 BTC, which was relatively small in value when last used but has since surged to over $3.3 million in today’s market.

Impact on Market Liquidity

The consolidation of these old Bitcoin holdings has broader implications for the cryptocurrency market, particularly in terms of liquidity. CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju noted that the consolidation indicates a “sell-side liquidity crisis waking up old Bitcoin.”

This suggests that the movement of these long-dormant coins is contributing to a tightening of the Bitcoin supply available for sale, which could potentially drive up prices.

It’s not unusual for early cryptocurrency adopters to resurface after long periods of dormancy. This trend was

The consolidation of these old Bitcoin holdings comes at a time when the cryptocurrency market is experiencing significant growth and adoption.

The introduction of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the U.S. has led to a surge in demand for Bitcoin, further reducing the available supply for sale. As a result, Bitcoin’s liquid inventory has reached its lowest level ever, indicating a potential supply crunch in the market.

DISCLAIMER

The views expressed in the article are wholly those of the author and do not represent those of, nor should they be attributed to, ZyCrypto. This article is not meant to give financial advice. Please carry out your own research before investing in any of the various cryptocurrencies available.

The original article written by Arnold Kirimi and posted on ZyCrypto.com.

Article reposted on Markethive by Jeffrey Sloe

** Loans, secure funding for business projects in the USA and around the world. Learn more about USA & International Financing at Commercial Funding International. **

Tim Moseley

Currency risks will drive gold and silver sky-high by year-end BMO Capital Markets

Currency risks will drive gold and silver sky-high by year-end – BMO Capital Markets

While gold and silver prices may continue to consolidate in the near term, the rally in the precious metals sector is only getting started, according to commodity analysts at BMO Capital Markets.

In a report published Wednesday, the Canadian bank announced a significant upgrade for its gold and silver price projections for the next three years, with the high-water mark in the final quarter of 2024. The bank’s commodity analysts see gold prices averaging this year around $2,169 an ounce, up 11% from its previous forecast.

At the same time, they see gold prices averaging next year around $2,100 an ounce, a 12% increase from December’s estimates. Gold prices are expected to average around $2,000 an ounce in 2026 and $1,950 in 2027, an increase of 8% and 3%, respectively from the December estimates.

Looking at silver, BMO sees the white metal averaging around $25.60 an ounce this year, up 13% from the December forecasts. The price is expected to average around $25.30 an ounce next year, up 11% from the previous estimate. Finally, prices are expected to average $24 in 2026 and $23.50 in 2027, an increase from the previous estimate of 8% and 3%, respectively.

This year, BMO sees gold prices averaging around $2250 an ounce in the fourth quarter, a 13% increase from the previous estimate. At the same time, silver prices are expected to average the final quarter of the year around $28 an ounce, a 22$ increase from December’s forecast.

June gold futures last traded at $2,214 an ounce, up 0.67% on the day.

The commodity analysts said that gold’s consolidation near its recent all-time highs is an indication that the precious metal is forming a new base and investors are getting comfortable with higher prices.

They added that they remain bullish on the precious metal as a hedge against rising currency risks worldwide, and noted that gold’s all-time highs also coincide with Bitcoin’s move to record highs above $73,000 per token.

“Given no politician is likely to be elected by promising to spend less in a year loaded with elections across key democracies, there is certainly a chance that later in the year we may see further currency concerns supporting precious metal performance as a new era of elevated fiscal spending across global economies gathers traction,” the analysts said in the report. “While we see some consolidation in the current range through mid-year, we expect further sequential gains in H2 as the U.S. rate cut cycle starts to gather pace and geopolitical tensions rise as the U.S. election nears. This could be one of the rare years where both macro and retail investors increase exposure to precious metals.”

While gold regains its luster as a risk hedge, BMO also said they expect the market to remain well supported by “price-insensitive central banks.”

The bank also reiterated its call for Chinese demand to dominate the marketplace.

“China’s households accumulated strong savings over the pandemic, and even over the past two years ~35trn RMB was added. However, these households have had somewhat of a dilemma as to where to put this money, something often termed the ‘ugliness contest’ for Chinese investors,” the analysts said. “Historically, money might have been invested in property as a default position; however, as has been widely discussed this sector continues to face major structural issues which are impacting buyer confidence. With this, gold exposure has become a necessity for Chinese portfolios, as they continue to expect disinflation and income uncertainty.”

Meanwhile, BMO explained that silver will remain well-supported by industrial demand and weak supply growth.

“Historically, money might have been invested in property as a default position; however, as has been widely discussed this sector continues to face major structural issues which are impacting buyer confidence. With this, gold exposure has become a necessity for Chinese portfolios, as they continue to expect disinflation and income uncertainty,” the analysts said in the report.

“Recent weeks have seen vast lay-offs at the world’s largest solar manufacturer, Longi Green Technology, while there have been a number of news articles around poor utility return on solar installations in Europe,” they added. “This has led to some fears of a wider solar industry slowdown; however, we see this as a cyclical element of overinvestment and higher interest rates.”

Kitco Media

Neils Christensen

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

ADA at 10 Price In View As Cardano Surpasses Ethereum ETH Other Top Blockchains In Developer Activity

ADA at $10 Price In View As Cardano Surpasses Ethereum (ETH), Other Top Blockchains In Developer Activity

By Arnold Kirimi – March 24, 2024

Cardano (ADA) has emerged as a leader in developer activity, surpassing Ethereum (ETH) and other major blockchain networks. The surge in GitHub commits reflects Cardano’s commitment to innovation and growth, positioning it as a frontrunner in the competitive blockchain landscape.

GitHub commits are updates or modifications made to a project’s code on the GitHub platform using the Git version control system.

Each commit represents a specific change to the codebase, like adding features, fixing bugs, or enhancing performance. Commits include a message explaining the changes, aiding collaboration and progress tracking in software development.

Impressive GitHub Commit Numbers

IntoTheBlock reports that Cardano’s ADA is currently the cryptocurrency with the highest development activity and weekly engagements, surpassing major cryptocurrencies like Ethereum (ETH) and Bitcoin (BTC). Following ADA, Avalanche (AVAX) takes the third spot, with Litecoin (LTC) ranking fourth.

Between March 11 and 17, Cardano recorded an impressive total of 978,780 commits on GitHub, showcasing its proactive approach to advancing its platform. In comparison, Ethereum, a leading blockchain platform, trailed behind with 407,170 commits during the same period.

This significant lead in GitHub activity underscores Cardano’s dedication to attracting developers and enhancing its ecosystem.

The rise of Cardano’s developer activity also sheds light on the broader trend of increasing engagement across layer-1 (L1) blockchain protocols. Avalanche (AVAX) recorded 315,770 commits, demonstrating a strong commitment to innovation and growth.

Similarly, Litecoin (LTC) and Tron (TRX) showed notable developer engagement, with 84,110 and 79,380 commits, respectively. Despite these efforts, these networks still lag behind Cardano in terms of overall developer activity.

Developer engagement is a critical metric for evaluating a blockchain protocol’s potential growth and evolution. High-commit counts indicate an active developer community working on decentralized applications (dApps) and improving the network’s capabilities.

This continuous development work is essential for enhancing the functionality and resilience of the blockchain network over time.

Cardano Price Performance vs. Developer Activity


ADA/USDT Price Chart: TradingView

Despite Cardano’s strong developer activity, its price performance has not mirrored this success. ADA has been trading below the $1 mark since April 2022 and is currently priced at $0.63, reflecting a 0.18% surge in the past 24 hours. Despite the positive GitHub commit data, ADA has experienced a decrease of 20.66% over the past week.

However, several analysts have recently expressed optimism about the asset, forecasting a new record high in the coming days. For instance, X user Ali Charts drew parallels between the coin’s current performance and its past bull cycle, suggesting a potential “parabolic” surge to reach as high as $10.

DISCLAIMER

The views expressed in the article are wholly those of the author and do not represent those of, nor should they be attributed to, ZyCrypto. This article is not meant to give financial advice. Please carry out your own research before investing in any of the various cryptocurrencies available.

The original article written by Arnold Kirimi and posted on Zycrypto.com.

Article reposted on Markethive by Jeffrey Sloe

** Loans, secure funding for business projects in the USA and around the world. Learn more about USA & International Financing at Commercial Funding International. **

Tim Moseley

Silver can still outperform gold even as prices fall 1 below 2450 – MKS

Silver can still outperform gold even as prices fall 1% below $24.50 – MKS

Silver continues to underperform within the precious metals market and has been unable to hold gains above $25 an ounce even as gold prices hold near their record highs.

Despite the disappointing price action, many analysts remain optimistic that silver will have its turn to shine in the spotlight.

Even with higher volatility, Nicky Shiels, head of metals strategy at MKS PAMP, said silver is building a solid floor above $23.50 an ounce. She added that she sees potential for the white metal to reach $28 an ounce this year.

The bullish outlook comes as gold prices hold solid support above $2,150 an ounce; spot silver has fallen to a one-week low, last trading at $24.36 an ounce, down more than 1% on the day. The gold/silver ratio remains elevated and is above 89 points.

However, with inflation expected to remain stubbornly elevated for longer than forecasted, Shiels said that she expects the ratio to start falling.

“US growth has exceeded expectations as the Fed manufactures a soft landing while ROW / global growth is ‘stable’ish.’ With expected easier G-10 monetary policy now collectively tolerating a ‘higher for longer’ inflation regime, high beta cyclical commodities like Silver should outperform & the ratio should rerate lower,” she said in a note published last week.

Last week the Federal Reserve signaled that it was still on track to lower interest rates three times this year even as inflation remains above its 2% target.

Along with easing interest rates, Shiels noted that silver remains well supported by strong supply and demand fundamentals as demand continues to outpace supply.

She pointed out that India has once again become a robust source of demand for the physical metal. Quoting the nation’s trade data, Sheils said that in the first two months of the year, India has imported about 3,000 tonnes of silver.

“While that buying pace may subside, we don’t foresee a dramatic scale back in purchases at $25/oz+ prices,” she said.

At the same time, analysts expect healthy industrial demand to push the silver market into another deficit this year. According to research from the Silver Institute, global silver demand is expected to reach 1.2 billion ounces in 2024, the second-highest level on record.

Shiels noted that ongoing demand for silver has pushed above-ground stocks held with the London Bullion Market Association to record lows of 814 million ounces.

Meanwhile, the supply of silver continues to dwindle. Sheils noted that silver production from Mexico and Peru, the world’s top two producers, has dropped to its lowest level in 14 years.

“Mexico & Peru together are producing 25% less vs 2016 levels, helping drive the drawdown in above-ground stocks as a substitute,” she said.

As to what will drive investors back into silver, Shiels said that she expects investment demand to pick up as central banks start to cut interest rates. The Federal Reserve is likely to embark on its easing cycle with a cut in June. She added that geopolitical uncertainty ahead of the U.S. elections can also create some safe-haven demand for silver.

“Trying to time investor engagement is tricky, but as is the case with gold, it’s usually a FOMO trade, so a technical breakup & above $26 (a relatively sticky area) should attract the momentum crowd,” she said.

Kitco Media

Neils Christensen

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Gold gains on technical buying friendly outside markets

Gold gains on technical buying, friendly outside markets

Gold prices are posting decent gains in midday U.S. trading Monday, supported by chart-based buying amid bullish technicals, and by friendly daily “outside market” forces that see the U.S. dollar index lower and crude oil prices higher. Silver prices are trading slightly up. April gold was last up $16.80 at $2,176.70. May silver was last up $0.042 at $24.885.

Broker SP Angel this morning said in an email dispatch that China and other central banks continue to buy gold. “Recent interest rate moves by major central banks of Japan, Taiwan and Turkey along with the expectations for U.S. rate cuts are making gold increasingly attractive. Investors also remain concerned at the level of high government debt supported by the U.S. and China.”

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $82.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching around 4.25%.

Technically, April gold futures bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. A five-week-old uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the contract and record high of $2,225.30. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $2,149.20. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $2,182.50 and then at Friday’s high of $2,188.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $2,164.40 and then at Friday’s low of $2.158.40. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0.

May silver futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the March high of $25.975. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $23.50. First resistance is seen at Friday’s high of $25.11 and then at $25.50. Next support is seen at last week’s low of $24.58 and then at $24.22. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

May N.Y. copper closed up 80 points at 401.55 cents today. Prices closed near mid-range. The copper bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage but appear tired now. Prices are in a six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the March high of 416.40 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 385.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 404.70 cents and then at Friday’s high of 406.65 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 399.05 cents and then at 396.75 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

Kitco Media

Jim Wyckoff

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Gold price correction This week won’t derail a broader rally as Fed looks to cut rates

Gold price correction This week won’t derail a broader rally as Fed looks to cut rates

The Federal Reserve has given the all-clear to gold after signaling it still wants to cut interest rates three times this year, even as inflation remains above the 2% target; however, some market analysts said that the precious metal could see a healthy correction next week and in the near term.

Following the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting on Wednesday, gold prices rallied to a record high above $2,220 an ounce; however, the rally was short-lived, and prices are looking to end the week in neutral territory. April gold futures are currently trading around $2,164 an ounce, only a few dollars up from last week’s close.

Although the market looks a little heavy, a short trading week with markets closed Friday because of the Good Friday holiday could limit price volatility next week.

James Stanley, senior strategist at Forex.com, said that he expects gold prices to ultimately trend higher ahead of the Federal Reserve’s June monetary policy meeting when the central bank is expected to start its easing cycle.

He noted that gold remains well supported as the Federal Reserve signaled that it will ease interest rates even if inflation remains elevated.

“The Fed had every opportunity to strike a more balanced note, but they didn’t. If you look at the data, there is no reason for the Fed to look for three rate cuts this year. They don’t need to cut as the unemployment rate remains at the lowest point in my lifetime,” he said. “The fact that the Fed didn’t strike a more balanced tone raises a lot of questions for me and is a red flag for the economy that I think will continue to support gold.”

However, Stanley added that although he likes gold, he expects to see a correction in the near term. He said that investors should be cautious of chasing prices near record highs.

“Gold wants to go higher, but I think a pullback would be healthy. For investors who were long gold at the start of the month, this would be a good place to take some profits so we could see a short-term correction,” he said.

Looking at technical levels, Stanley said he is watching initial support at $2,146, as that was the December swing high. However, he added that he wouldn’t be surprised to see gold test support at $2,075 an ounce, representing a three-year resistance point before the early March breakout.

Lukman Otunuga, manager of market analysis at FXTM, said that although the Federal Reserve continues to signal rate cuts this year, the depth of the easing cycle will remain data-dependent. He explained that gold needs to see more disappointing economic data in the coming weeks and months to support the current rally.

“Although the Fed has signaled that three US interest rates remain on the cards in 2024, it’s all about economic data which could support or oppose the argument around rate cuts,” he said. “Gold bulls could return to the scene if incoming US data next week supports the case for lower rates. However, bears are also lurking and waiting for another opportunity to strike prices lower.”

Despite the bullish outlook, Otunuga said that, ahead of next week, the gold market “is looking a little tired.”

 

Although gold prices could see a correction next week, other analysts have said that investors should remain focused on the broader uptrend.

Naeem Aslam, Chief Investment Officer, said that although gold has seen a strong rally this month in anticipation of the Fed’s easing cycle, there is still significant potential for higher prices.

“We certainly haven’t hit high in terms of the gold price. We think that the important ingredient is the Fed’s definition of a normal interest rate, i.e., their target level,” he said. “We do think that the process has started as the Fed is sending a subdued signal that their pre-Covid level needs to be adjusted, and once they make it clean, we would expect the gold price to rally.”

While gold’s technical price action represents a short-term risk, the precious metal also faces some fundamental threats in the near term.

David Morrison, senior market analyst at Trade Nation, said that renewed strength in the U.S. dollar creates a headwind for gold. The greenback is ending Friday at a four-week high above 104 points.

“Could this sudden reemergence of dollar strength indicate that investors are less sanguine than the Fed over the prospect of rate cuts? Perhaps. But it also reflects that the latest round of central bank meetings have made it clear that rate cuts are coming from just about everyone,” he said in a note Friday. “In fact, the Swiss National Bank have already moved. That being the case, the US dollar is back in favour as it’s now the cleanest shirt in the laundry basket. It could be that this shake-out of the weaker holders of gold and silver can set the stage for a bigger rally. But that may be wishful thinking if the dollar continues to strengthen.”

 

Economic data for next week

 

Monday: New home sales

Tuesday: Durable goods orders, consumer confidence

Thursday: Weekly jobless claims, US GDP, Pending home sales

Friday: Core PCE price index

Kitco Media

Neils Christensen

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

The Dynamic Crypto Industry Building A Bitcoin-Backed Monetary System Consider Banks Without Bankers

The Dynamic Crypto Industry Building A Bitcoin-Backed Monetary System. Consider Banks Without Bankers 

One of the main advantages of cryptocurrency is the independence it offers by enabling individuals to become their own bank. With cryptocurrency, you have complete control and ownership of your assets, whereas traditional banks have technical ownership over the assets you store with them. While the concept of being your own bank is impressive, critics argue that specialized crypto banks may be necessary for crypto to compete effectively with the established financial system.

This article summarizes a report outlining a method for establishing financial institutions without the need for traditional bankers. This method utilizes Bitcoin to achieve this goal, and the approach aligns with the broader aim of revolutionizing the financial sector by harnessing the power of cryptocurrency to replace the existing flawed monetary system. 

Banks Without Bankers Prioritizing User Agency

Today's summary is of a report called "Banks without Bankers," released by AxiomBTC, a venture capital firm focused on Bitcoin. The report starts with a powerful quote from Hal Finney, a pioneering Bitcoin developer who received the first Bitcoin transaction.  In the quote, Hal Finney envisions a future where BTC is crucial in reshaping the banking system. 


Source: Axiom.BTC

In the report authored by Eric Yakes, he explores two potential outcomes for the future of Bitcoin. On one end of the spectrum, all BTC could be held in custody by third parties like banks, with individuals trading receipts instead. This is similar to the historical concept of fiat money, representing a gold claim held by a bank. On the other end of the spectrum, Bitcoin could become a widely-used medium of exchange, with individuals directly transacting with each other and BTC effectively replacing money and its associated functions.

The idea presented is impractical due to several factors. Bitcoin faces limitations in scaling at its core level and is missing the necessary smart contract capabilities for sophisticated financial operations. Similarly, the scenario where all BTC is held in custody is not feasible because some BTC holders prefer to maintain control over their cryptocurrency assets through self-custody and peer-to-peer transactions. Therefore, it can be reasoned that the future of Bitcoin lies in a balance between custody services and individual self-custody practices.

Eric points out in the report that advancing technologies in the Bitcoin sector will allow for striking this balance carefully, emphasizing prioritizing greater peer-to-peer interactions. This approach is logical, as Bitcoin was initially designed to distance itself from traditional financial institutions like banks. In other words, the primary goal of Bitcoin was to remove the reliance on third parties to safeguard assets, hence the inherent trustless quality of cryptocurrency.

Eric contends that not all trust is misplaced, as it's crucial to place confidence in the right individuals and ensure their motivations align. He reinforces this notion by highlighting evolutionary biology findings emphasizing communities' importance in survival and reproduction. He then draws parallels between these findings and the contemporary financial system, where community-oriented banks are less likely to fail.

Eric believes that community banks are restricted by their geographical reach, meaning those nearby can only access their benefits. This limitation stems from the physical constraints of the world. In contrast, the digital realm knows no boundaries or distances. Eric suggests that with the appropriate technology, Bitcoin could enable the establishment of a digital community bank that transcends geographical limitations.

A critical technological component is multi-signature (mult-sig) wallets, which enable multiple individuals to manage a single Bitcoin wallet. In essence, multi-sig wallets enable the creation of conditions that allow this shared wallet to spend BTC. This technology allows the establishment of a ‘federation,’ which Eric defines as a system where “multiple participants hold keys that are useless in isolation, but can be combined to produce a signature that is required to make a transaction.” 


Source: https://fedimint.org/

Fedimint: A Decentralized Solution

The first part of the report introduces a federated network called Fedimint. It’s designed to address issues related to trust in third parties and the complexities of self-custody. The concept is to rely on your community for trust rather than depending on external entities or solely yourself for technical matters of self-custody. A combination of four underlying technologies powers Fedimint;

  1. Federations can be considered a collection of reliable, trusted nodes that work together to operate a network. These nodes are responsible for maintaining the integrity of the system. 
  2. Multi-sig wallets, as previously mentioned above.
  3. A privacy-preserving digital currency called eCash which is backed by BTC.
  4. The Lightning Network: (LN) A layer two protocol on the Bitcoin Network.

At the protocol level, Fedimint consists of four participants; 

  1. Users who can mint, redeem, and transfer eCash. 
  2. Guardians that function as nodes on the network and facilitate the minting, redemption, and transfer of eCash.
  3. Gateways that can be simply understood as nodes that make eCash transferable on the Lightning Network. 
  4. Modules, which are the applications on Fedimint. 

Each Fedimint system has three built-in modules: BTC, eCash, and a connector for integrating with the Lightning Network. Users can expand the functionality of their Fediment system by adding extra modules like eCash payments and advanced eCash exchanges. Fedimint networks have the potential to function as virtual community banks, operate independently, and manage financial transactions without traditional bankers. The community-driven infrastructure allows seamless interaction with other Bitcoin-based Fedimint networks.


Source: Bitcoin magazine

Eric explores an alternative method in which Bitcoin could replace traditional banks, this time through utilizing a different protocol known as Cashu. Like Fedimint, Cashu utilizes a privacy-preserving eCash supported by Bitcoin, crypto’s store of value. However, Cashu is notably more centralized, operating on a single server. The trade-off is that the centralized aspect allows for efficient monitoring of the eCash circulation without jeopardizing user privacy, which contrasts with the challenge faced by Fedimints, where tracking the supply of eCash is hindered by its inherent privacy features.

Money and e-Cash

In the second part of the report, Eric asserts that a single form of money will eventually become the universal standard for transactions. He argues, “In theory, market participants converge upon a monetary standard. In a perfect world, there would only be one form of money. Yet, throughout history, this has never been the case.” Eric provides three explanations for the historical absence of a singular form of money.

The first is opacity or the general lack of information about other currencies available to the average person. Another reason is governments' desire to control their own currencies, a concept called sovereign coercion. The third factor to consider is the trade-offs associated with money. For instance, in today's world, real estate is often viewed as a more reliable store of value compared to the US dollar, as explained by Eric. 

For reference, the concept of money refers to a medium that holds value, while currency is a means of exchange used to purchase goods and services. This video clarifies the distinction between the two, highlighting how they were once equivalent when backed by gold. However, once currency was no longer tied to gold, it lost its value as a form of money. Despite this shift, we continue to operate under the belief that we are working for money through indoctrination, both explicitly and implicitly. 

Eric explains we are not out of the woods regarding BTC being the complete solution to this problem. He notes that although BTC addresses numerous obstacles that have previously hindered the widespread adoption of a single currency, it faces its own obstacles regarding scalability (speed) and privacy. The Lightning Network is a potential remedy for Bitcoin's scalability issue, while eCash is a solution for enhancing Bitcoin's privacy.

The report recognizes that while each of these solutions has its own obstacles, they may still effectively address the issue. However, eCash's success in creating viable money markets depends on its ability to gain widespread acceptance and adoption. Without delving into complex details, this process would entail individuals or organizations with substantial financial resources engaging in arbitrage activities between various eCash systems, stabilizing their value relative to the underlying BTC. This positive feedback loop would boost eCash adoption, fostering more precise pricing, increased market-making, and further adoption. The cycle would repeat, driving up the use and reliance on eCash while maintaining a consistent global value.


Source: Axiom.BTC

The Potential Risks Of An eCash System

The report's third section highlights the potential risks involved with the eCash system, which is built on Bitcoin (BTC) and utilizes the Lightning Network and Fedimint technology. Eric explains that eCash is designed to be minted and redeemed for BTC on the Bitcoin blockchain or BTC on the Lightning Network using a Fedimint Network. This system should ensure that all types of eCash issued by different Fedimint networks are interchangeable and hold equal value. In other words, eCash minted for BTC using one Fedimint network's lightning Network BTC can be redeemed for Layer One BTC at another Fedimint network.

While Fedimints offers the benefit of privacy for eCash transactions, there is a potential drawback. Specifically, Fedimints can generate more eCash than the amount of BTC that backs it, which could result in an imbalance in the system. For instance, one Fedimint network might produce ten times more eCash than others, causing users to claim a disproportionate amount of BTC from other Fedimints. This issue arises because eCash is entirely private, making it difficult to keep track of the total amount in circulation. This issue is mitigated by using Cashu, which maintains a record of circulating eCash and ensures that BTC always backs it.

Now, there's already a precedent for how to solve this problem. It's called free banking, which is banking before central banks existed. In the free banking era, banks could issue currency at their own discretion. In theory, this currency was backed by gold; in practice, it wasn't always. Unfortunately, this led to a situation where customers were not always aware of the actual value of the currency they were using, as they were at the mercy of the banks' honesty. This information imbalance between banks and their customers can be compared to the privacy aspects of eCash issued by Fedimints, where the issuing authority can access more information than the users.


Source: AreaBitcoin

The caveat is that free banks did not have a widespread relationship with all individuals. Only a select few were privy to the financial workings of the free banks, and these were often the first to withdraw their funds before the system collapsed. The report highlights three such groups: competitors, brokers, and clearing houses. Eric suggests similar participants could provide comparable assurances in a decentralized eCash system. This could include entities such as Fedimints, Lightning Network gateways, eCash brokers, and even speculators who wager against unreliable Fedimints. The most crucial participant that could be introduced to an eCash system would be one capable of furnishing proof of reserves.

Those who have been involved in the crypto space since the downfall of FTX will be familiar with the emphasis placed on proof-of-reserves by exchanges aiming to enhance credibility. However, it's important to note that proof-of-reserves alone does not provide insight into a crypto exchange's obligations or debts. This means that an exchange could show evidence of holding $1 billion in BTC for its users who have deposited the same amount while simultaneously being $2 billion in debt, a detail unknown to users.

However, in an eCash system, the concept of liabilities doesn't apply in the traditional sense, as all eCash in circulation is supported by BTC held in a multi-signature wallet. The existence of this BTC collateral ensures the legitimacy of eCash minted by a Fediment, making it unnecessary to worry about liabilities.

Proof Of Liabilities

The fourth section of the report focuses on proof of liabilities. In this context, it alludes to the Cashu-created method for preserving the privacy of eCash users while monitoring the digital currency in circulation. Cashu's proof of liabilities protocol relies on three deliberate steps, which are crucial for its effectiveness.

  1. To publicly commit to regularly rotating its eCash private keys over a predetermined period (“epoch”). This allows all eCash in circulation to recycle from old epochs to the current epoch.
  2. Produce a publicly auditable list of all issued eCash tokens in the form of mint proofs.
  3. Produce a publicly auditable list of all redeemed eCash tokens in the form of burn proofs.

A system with these properties can ensure that Fedimint users can verify whether a mint has issued unbacked eCash during a previous epoch. This system sets an expiration date on user eCash, which prompts users to update their eCash to the latest epoch. The expiration of eCash compels users (through automated processes in their wallet software) to take actions that will lead to the mint disclosing past eCash issuance and redemptions.

The intriguing aspect is that the periodic alteration of eCash private keys is designed to mimic a bank run on the Fedimint. If the Fedimint is unable to modify the private keys used for eCash minting, it suggests that the eCash they've issued is not supported by the BTC reserves they claim.

In the fifth section of the report, Eric examines the possibility of a Bitcoin eCash system being impervious to political influence, provided that there is a sufficient number of decentralized financial networks, known as Fedimint networks. The report speculates that up to 10 million digital community banks could be in the future. Additionally, the report highlights that Fedimint networks are also resistant to politics because they are currently exempt from financial regulations but admit that this could change. If you’ve followed the crypto regulation saga, you would know that the authorities’ goal is ending all custodial crypto. 

The sixth section of the report analyzes why Bitcoin and the Lightning Network are deemed inadequate. The report then shifts its focus back to comparing free banking with the eCash system in the seventh section. The risks associated with each system are highlighted in a diagram presented below.


Source: Axiom.BTC

The report then discusses the potential for Fedimints to start practicing fractional reserve banking. For those unfamiliar with the concept, fractional reserve banking refers to retaining only a portion of the funds backing a currency in circulation. Most financial institutions worldwide maintain a reserve requirement of less than 30%, meaning they must hold 30 cents for every dollar they have issued.

Significantly, the Federal Reserve eliminated all reserve requirements for American banks at the onset of the pandemic and has seemingly yet to reinstate them. Eric highlights that this has raised concerns that Fedimint networks may begin operating like fractional reserve banks, meaning they would issue more eCash than BTC in reserve. However, competition among Fedimints is believed to help mitigate this risk, with those maintaining full reserves coming out on top.

Emerging Technologies

In the latter section of the report, the discussion revolves around new technologies that can bring the eCash concept to life. Eric highlights a novel protocol named Ark, currently in its conceptual phase and can be viewed as a mixing service and an onboarding mechanism that minimizes on-chain activity. Like the Lightning Network (LN) has LSPs, Ark will have Ark Service Providers (ASPs). This is a solution to the onboarding problem and a trustless custodial solution.

Interestingly, Ark's main limitation is that it can only support up to 10.5 million BTC due to technical reasons outlined in the report. Despite this, Eric believes this inherent restriction could be advantageous in the long run. The main point to remember is that Ark has the potential to overcome the technical challenges faced by the eCash system. As noted by Eric, “The Arc protocol could provide the necessary infrastructure for a trustless free banking system of service providers to emerge, removing agency from fundamental economic functions.” 

Next, Eric synthesizes the information in the concluding section of the report, presenting a comprehensive overview as follows:

“Imagine a system where users dollar-cost-average into Bitcoin via Ark, use federated technology for custody, use eCash as the private cash balance for everyday transactions, and on the backend, all service providers are clearing balances between one another via the Lightning Network. Fedimints and ASPs could act as banking infrastructure, and the LN could act as the clearing houses amongst them as a hub and spoke model.”

In essence, it is a monetary framework of decentralized, community-owned, and operated digital Bitcoin banks.

What It Means For BTC

The potential impact on Bitcoin (BTC) is significant, assuming the implementation of the eCash system as described. Such a system would generate substantial demand for BTC, thereby boosting its value. In essence, the eCash aspect of this alternative financial system would serve as a powerful catalyst for BTC's growth.

The more significant concern is how this trend might impact both the financial system and your personal financial autonomy. It's important to remember that economic freedom doesn't equate to having a large sum of money. Instead, it means having the flexibility and control to make choices about your money whenever you see fit. Unfortunately, this level of autonomy is becoming increasingly scarce in traditional financial circles.

As previously stated, having a large sum of money in your bank account may hold little value if you cannot use it. When encountering someone with significant wealth, inquire about the challenges of managing such funds. The process of transferring large sums of money is complex and increasingly so. This difficulty may be attributed to the fractional reserve banking system's ongoing trend towards extreme fractionalization. Put simply, banks are putting up hurdles that make it harder to move your money around because the cash you have there doesn't even really exist. 

The banking crisis from last year highlighted how convenient it is to transfer money in today's world. In the past, customers would have to physically line up at the bank to withdraw their money in the event of a problem, which is the classical definition of a bank run. Nowadays, all you need to do is click a button, which is a big problem for banks. 

In any case, the growing sentiment globally is towards a financial framework that enables individuals to possess their assets and maintain their financial autonomy. The system examined in this report may or may not be the ultimate answer, but it's undoubtedly a move in the right direction toward a future where such a system will be imperative.


Image: Markethive Wallet

On The Right Side Of History

Markethive is also on the right side of history regarding financial sovereignty and keeping the entrepreneurial spirit alive. It is a domain where the individual can thrive in an expanding community of critical thinkers who uphold liberty and free expression, prioritize financial autonomy, and foster an environment where ingenuity and independence can flourish. These aspiring and seasoned entrepreneurs alike reject the constraints established financial systems impose and embrace the potential of decentralized technology. 

In response to the autocracy of governments and mega-corporations on a global level, Markethive has developed its own comprehensive financial accounting hub that can be likened to a bank. This system provides users with a secure platform for financial transactions, including merchant accounts, free from the risk of account closure or seizure by authorities seeking to restrict freedom of expression for any reason.

Markethive’s evolution will include multiple sovereign servers to avoid being censured or shut down and a dynamic and innovative crypto exchange that leverages the platform's unique strengths, including innovative inbound marketing strategies, blogcasting capabilities, dynamic social engagement, and community-driven support. These endeavors are a natural progression for Markethive, allowing it to expand its reach and provide users with a seamless trading experience that integrates the platform's proven features.

With divine guidance, we will resist the oppressive totalitarian regimes that seek to subjugate humanity. Despite the power wielded by the elite, tech titans, government, and mega-corporations, a higher authority exists that eludes their control. The discerning individual cannot help but perceive the larger forces at play.

This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

 

 

Editor and Chief Markethive: Deb Williams. (Australia) I thrive on progress and champion freedom of speech.  I embrace "Change" with a passion, and my purpose in life is to enlighten people to accept and move forward with enthusiasm. Find me at my Markethive Profile Page | My Twitter Account | and my LinkedIn Profile.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tim Moseley

Wall Street advises caution on gold prices next week Main Street mashes the gas

Wall Street advises caution on gold prices next week, Main Street mashes the gas

After last week’s price action was led by inflation data, gold markets were once again dominated by the Federal Reserve and interest rate expectations, though traders’ feelings seemed to evolve as the days went by.

In the immediate aftermath of Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, markets took the Fed’s maintenance of three projected rate cuts in 2024 and ran with it, weakening the greenback and driving the yellow metal to yet another all-time high in both futures and spot prices on Thursday.

Then, later trading brought a major bounce to the U.S. dollar and a significant retracement for gold, which continued through the Friday trading session.

pic

The latest Kitco News Weekly Gold Survey showed market experts divided and cautious on gold’s direction heading into the final week of the first quarter, while retail traders are very much back on the bullish bandwagon.

Colin Cieszynski, Chief Market Strategist at SIA Wealth Management, captured the zeitgeist among market participants at the conclusion of Fed week. “I am neutral on gold for the coming week,” Cieszynski said. “It has had a big move lately, and may consolidate in the coming days with the US Dollar strengthening, and it being month-end, plus a short trading week next week.”

Darin Newsom, Senior Market Analyst at Barchart.com, said he’s keeping his downward bias for next week. “I’ll stick with this for a third consecutive week,” he said. “It was looking a bit questionable Thursday, until the April contract dropped more than $40 off its session high through the close. With daily stochastics continuing to indicate more downside potential in the market, and the US dollar index gaining strength, April gold could work lower over the next week.”

“The key will be its previous 4-day low, theoretically sitting at $2,150.20 next Monday, depending on what happens Friday,” Newsom added.

“Despite surging to a fresh all-time high on Thursday, gold bulls seem tired and weighed down by a stronger dollar as the week comes to an end,” said Lukman Otunuga, senior market analyst at FXTM.

Everett Millman, Chief Market Analyst at Gainesville Coins, said he thinks that despite Powell’s vote of confidence on the overall economy, and the employment situation in particular, it was the rate cut forecast that drove the optimism coming out of the FOMC on Wednesday.

“I think it does go back to the dot plots, the fact that they haven't shifted to a less dovish stance, at least not in their forecast,” he said. “There is definitely some reason to be skeptical of the dot plots themselves, they haven't always played out according to what the Fed is forecasting. But I think that's really the main reason why gold moved higher, why it seemed to like the news, even though it really wasn't all that dovish.”

“We're not going to say it was the same type of stance the Fed had coming into this year, where they tried to be talking tough about inflation,” he added. “We didn't really see any of that.”

Looking beyond the FOMC, Millman said that there may just be a momentum trade going on with gold right now. “The fact that we have continued to maintain close to all-time highs, that's going to push a lot of trend-following traders and tactical investors into going long gold or covering their shorts,” he said. “I think that’s probably having a larger effect on the gold price action we're seeing, more so than people's expectations of the Fed, although obviously that's always going to be percolating in the background.”

Millman said that the technical picture is not confirming a continuation of this major pullback. “From what I've seen, most of the technical patterns in the gold chart are fairly bullish,” he said. “Having said that, I’m a big believer in mean reversion, and the fact that gold was almost certainly a little bit overbought when it got close to that $2,200 level, I think this is a routine correction that we should expect to see after gold had a month where it posted triple digit gains. So it doesn't surprise me, and I think we're going to have to see how it plays out in these coming weeks.”

Millman agreed that now is a perfect time to sit still and wait for things to settle a bit. “My vote is certainly neutral or sideways,” he said. “I think it would be extremely encouraging if gold could just hold on to most of its gains, given that we've already moved so much higher. When I do look out a little further, towards the third quarter, fourth quarter, by year-end, I do expect gold prices to be higher than they are now. I do expect them to be at new all-time highs. But in the short term, I think that the market just needs a breather.”

This week, 15 Wall Street analysts participated in the Kitco News Gold Survey, and their views were spread fairly evenly across the spectrum. Six experts, or 40%, expected to see higher gold prices next week, while four analysts, or 27%, predicted price declines. Five experts, representing 33%, predicted sideways trading for the precious metal, or suggested they would sit on the sidelines next week.

Meanwhile, 170 votes were cast in Kitco’s online polls, with the vast majority of Main Street investors anticipating further gains for gold next week. 117 retail traders, representing 69%, looked for gold to rise next week. Another 25, or 15%, predicted it would be lower, while 28 respondents, or 16%, were neutral on gold’s near-term prospects.

Next week will see the release of new home sales on Monday, durable goods, consumer confidence, and the Richmond Fed survey on Tuesday, and MBA mortgage applications on Wednesday. Thursday, however, will be the busiest day next week due to the long Easter weekend, with final Q4 GDP, jobless claims, pending home sales and the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey.

Sean Lusk, co-director of commercial hedging at Walsh Trading, was surprised at the positive sentiment from both Powell and the markets, and he doesn’t believe the Fed will be able to deliver 75 basis points of cuts this year.

“I really can't believe what I'm hearing, to be quite honest with you,” Lusk said. “I suppose I shouldn't be that surprised. Are they saying the economy's not as strong as it's perceived to be, given where the indexes are? Or are they saying that there's no inflation, or not as much inflation as it appears to be for the rank-and-file at the grocery store, because it does exist there.”

Lusk said that as far as the greenback is concerned, it's been a ‘buy-the-rumor, sell-the-fact’ event, which he found interesting. “The dollar shot up for two days in a row here, and that's kind of an odd reaction when you get, I would say, neutral to dovish commentary,” he said. “But you also have to recognize, at least in gold's case, volume was ticking up to 300,000, 400,000 contracts in the April contract. Now it's down about 150,000 a day, but you’ve got option expiration on the April contract Monday, and then you're going to roll to June.”

“I think this is all this is, today's weakness, maybe yesterday, they got up to some obscene high and they're yanking back and that's the normal ebb and flow in the markets,” he said. “Plus, you're coming into month and quarter-end, and we've had a hell of a performance here for the better part of two months, since the February lows.”

“They're going to back off here and take some profits, but I don't see any technical damage being done to the charts,” he added. “This thing could fall back to $2,125 and we're still in a bullish posture. We hit our 5 percent marker, that's where we're kicking around, maybe we're just a little bit below it today. I still think once June goes most actively traded, which it will next week, it has a chance to get to and surpass its contract high at $2,246 and then spike up to about $2,270, $2,280, in that area. That'll be 10 percent higher on the year, so that's the target. But if we start slipping underneath some [Fibonacci] numbers here at $2,125, then it can go down to halfway back from the February lows."

“Could they wipe this out at any moment?” he asked rhetorically. “Yeah, but what's changing? Why would they? You're just not going to go up every darn day at these levels, but you are consolidating in some higher ranges, and that's really the more important thing here. You’ve got June gold consolidating between $2,190 and $2,210 for the most part, and that's what I'm keying on here. The market still is in a pretty deep contango here, pretty steady, and should that remain, it just tells you the price is going higher.”

“Listen, my gut feeling here is that seasonally, we'll have some dips and valleys into the end of the quarter, and a three-day weekend next weekend, but the wild card is going to be what the wild cards have been: the Middle East, Eastern Europe, there's always black swans circling with the banking crisis,” he said. “In April, we'll get a second round of earnings, we'll see what those are. Then you're probably going to have a pullback in May when realization starts to hit that they’re not going to cut three times, maybe once at best.”

“Gold rallied through $2220 on the back of the initial dovish read of the FOMC as the dollar and US rates fell,” said Marc Chandler, Managing Director at Bannockburn Global Forex. “However, the market took another look, and rallied the dollar and steadied US rates. Gold pulled back to almost $2162.”

“I look for a firm dollar in the coming days and this may weigh on the yellow metal,” Chandler added. “Support is in the $2145-50 area. While many focus on the central bank gold buying, Chinese and Turkish retail investors also reportedly have been keen buyers. The momentum indicators are stretched but could be relieved by extended sideways activity.”

Mark Leibovit, publisher of the VR Metals/Resource Letter, is also expecting USD strength to push gold lower. “As Dollar rallies, look for a pullback.,” he

James Stanley, senior market strategist at Forex.com, said he believes gold is due for a pullback next week.

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“The trend is starting to feel frothy and even with the Fed going dovish and sticking with three cuts in the forecast, bulls weren’t able to do much beyond $2,200 yet,” he said. “There was an open door for a pullback as gold was holding a descending triangle very near the highs, but the Fed was surprisingly dovish (imo) at the FOMC rate decision and that brought a jolt to the USD which has largely been priced-out since.”

And Kitco Senior Analyst Jim Wyckoff sees gold prices rangebound next week. “Sideways, as bulls have run out of gas on a near-term basis,” he said.

Spot gold last traded at $2,165.31 per ounce at the time of writing, down 0.74% on the day but up 0.43% on the week.

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