Gold Price Forecast – June 2024

Key Takeaways

Gold Hits Another High in Bumpy Markets

Gold Rises on Growing Geopolitical Tension

US Rate Headwinds Persist, but Euro to the Rescue

Technical Analysis

Key Drivers in June

Mike Ingram

Gold News

Market Analysis
 

Key Takeaways

Gold appears to be one of the few assets that reflects rising geopolitical risk, reaching another all-time high.

The European Central Bank is now set to lead interest rates and the US dollar lower.

Gold’s technical position is currently critically poised as it negotiates a potential bear flag.

Gold Hits Another High in Bumpy Markets

Gold was essentially flat in volatile trading in May, reaching yet another all-time high above $2,400/toz in the latter half of the month before profit-taking set in, triggered by a more hawkish US rate outlook.

Gold Rises on Growing Geopolitical Tension

Rising geopolitical risk continues to be a major support for gold. May saw a further round of trade sanctions between the US and China, ostensibly aimed at curtailing import dumping and protecting domestic manufacturing. China also retaliated to US measures targeting China’s support of the Russian war in Ukraine, with sanctions targeting US support of both Ukraine and Taiwan. In Taiwan itself, China launched surprise military exercises aimed at harassing the inauguration of Taiwan’s new pro-independence president.

Meanwhile, in Europe, Russia has made advances in a surprise Spring offensive against Ukraine and the conflict in the Middle East has continued to escalate. Both have exposed deep divisions within the international community and are set to play a part in the forthcoming elections in Europe, the UK, and the US. There are no clear markers for an abatement of these risks – in fact, quite the opposite.
 

Despite this proliferation of geopolitical tension, there is little sign that this is uniformly priced into asset markets. Crude oil prices softened over the month, while it appears investor flows still favour risky assets (equities, cyclicals, and high-yield debt) in the face of global instability and despite institutional investors citing geopolitics as a ‘tail risk’. It remains to be seen how this apparent inconsistency will be resolved.
 

US Rate Headwinds Persist, but Euro to the Rescue

The prospect of the US starting to cut interest rates took a further backstep in recent weeks, with inflation and growth data within the most recent US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) causing investors particular concern. Supported by continued hawkish Fed minutes and rhetoric, markets have further pared their expectations of a rate cut by September’s meeting to c. 45%, according to CME FedWatch.

Despite this, we note that US bond markets have ended the month much as they started and it is arguable that with so little now priced in, the scope for a further bearish rate impact on gold is now limited. Moreover, it now seems likely that it is the European Central Bank (ECB), rather than the Fed, that will lead the global interest rate cycle downwards, with a rate cut seen as coming as early as the ECB’s 6 June meeting.

Markets have reacted by marking up the Euro some 2% against the US Dollar over the last month, which is somewhat supportive of gold.

Technical Analysis

Momentum indicators suggested that gold entered May mildly oversold, and these quickly recovered in the first half of the month. However, gold reached overbought territory on 20 May while registering another all-time high at $2,445/toz. This was confirmed by a subsequent steep decline, bottoming out on 24 May near $2,325/toz, breaking both the 100-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages.

Gold is currently struggling to negotiate a bear flag, in a range of $2,341/toz – $2,359/toz. A break below the previous low of $2,325/toz, might imply further downside towards $2,300/toz and $2,270/toz based on Fibonacci retracements of the break from the high. Proximate resistance is seen at the current 50-day 100-day Simple Moving Averages at $2,360/toz and $2,381/toz respectively.
 

Key Drivers in June

Key data points that will impact gold’s technical position going forward include the US Manufacturing PMI on 3 June, ECB rate decision on 6 June, US Non-Farm Payrolls on 7 June, the Fed rate decision – and more importantly the corresponding updates to economic forecasts and ‘dot plot’ – together with a raft of US inflation data, all on 12 June.

Gary Wagner

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Gold Tumbles as Stronger Dollar, Rising Yields Cast Doubt on 2023 Rate Cuts

Gold prices fell sharply on Thursday, as U.S. dollar gains and climbing Treasury yields sparked concerns over the Federal Reserve's anticipated path of interest rate cuts this year.

The precious metal's decline came ahead of a critical inflation report due on Friday, with investors bracing for potential surprises that could force the Fed to recalibrate its monetary policy outlook.

At the center of attention is the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for April, set to be released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The core PCE is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, capturing changes in consumer spending across a wide range of goods and services.

Treasury yields surged on Thursday, reflecting muted demand at this week's $183 billion bond auctions, as investors grew wary of persistent inflationary pressures amid improving economic growth prospects.

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari's comments, which did not rule out another rate hike, had a strong impact on market sentiment. Yields climb, with the 10-year note yield reaching a one-month high of 5.471% and the 2-year note yielding 4.958%.

According to the CME's FedWatch tool, markets are pricing in a near-certainty that the Fed will maintain its current benchmark interest rate of 5.25%-5.5% at the June meeting. However, the probability shifts substantially in favor of rate cuts later in the year, with a 12.3% chance of a cut in July and a 47% chance in September.

As of 6:50 PM ET, the gold futures contract for August 2024 is currently fixed at $2,359, down $15.20 or 0.64%, and an additional decline of $4.70 (0.20 %) in Australia. The U.S. dollar index gained 0.51% to 105.164, a major factor in gold’s price decline today.

All eyes are now on Friday's PCE report, which will likely shape the Fed's future policy decisions. Market participants are also eagerly awaiting the central bank's updated economic projections and "dot plot" forecasts for interest rates, due after the June 12 FOMC meeting. The current "dot plot" envisions three rate cuts this year, a scenario that could be revised based on incoming data.

Kitco Media

Gary Wagner

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Gold futures shine bright with a strong gain, forming a "3 river morning star"

Gold futures shine bright with a strong gain, forming a "3 river morning star" teaser image

Gold futures rebounded strongly after last week's price pullback. As of 4:55 PM ET, gold futures for the June 2024 contract surged $27.10, settling at $2,361.80.

With the June contract nearing its first notice day, the August 2024 gold futures contract will soon become the most actively traded. Currently, the August 2024 contract is up $27.40, trading at $2,384.30. Multiple factors have been driving gold's ascent to record highs. While some analysts attribute the precious metal's rally to dollar weakness and declining U.S. Treasury yields, our analysis suggests that geopolitical and macroeconomic influences have played a more significant role.

Ongoing military conflicts in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine war continue to fuel geopolitical uncertainty, bolstering gold's safe-haven appeal.

Additionally, central banks worldwide have been steadily increasing their gold holdings over the past two years, with China's central bank among the most aggressive buyers.

China's consumer demand has also been a major catalyst for gold's recent surge. According to UBS, "A significant driver of the surge in gold prices has been the robust increase in China's gold demand, particularly evident in the first quarter of 2024.

Chinese consumers have demonstrated an unprecedented appetite for gold jewelry, with purchases reaching record levels. This surge in demand from China has significantly contributed to the upward trajectory of gold prices and is expected to continue supporting prices in the near term."

Gold investors and traders have remained active buyers on price dips, supporting the precious metal's pricing at these new highs.

On the daily chart, a simple Japanese candlestick pattern called a "Three River Morning Star" has emerged. This pattern, formed after a price decline, can be a strong indication of a key reversal from bearish to bullish.

The pattern consists of a large red candlestick within a defined downtrend, followed by a small-bodied candle (either red or green) that opens and closes below the first red candle. The final candle is a large green candle that opens above the middle candle and closes above the center of the body of the first candle.

With gold's recent strength and the formation of this bullish reversal pattern, the precious metal's upward momentum could continue to shine in the coming sessions.
 

Kitco Media

Gary Wagner

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Gold and silver both poised to resume uptrend after last week’s correction – Saxo’s Larsson

Precious metals saw a sharp bearish correction last week, but prices are rebounding this week with silver leading the pack, according to Kim Cramer Larsson, Technical Analyst at Saxo Bank.

“Gold (XAUUSD) seems to be bouncing from the cloud (shaded area—the Ichimoku Cloud) between the 0.618 and the 0.786 retracement, and the minor support at around 2,326,” Larsson wrote. “A dip down to the 0.786 retracement at 2,314 could still occur before rebounding.

Larsson said that if the gold price breaks above $2,385 per ounce, the prior uptrend is likely back on track with potential to target $2,500. “The 55-day moving average will add to the bullish support,” he said, whereas “A close below 2,277 confirms a downtrend.”

He added that the RSI is indicating a divergence, which suggests that the uptrend could be in exhaustion mode. “However, a close back above the 60 threshold and above the upper falling trendline would be a strong indication of another bullish push in gold,” he said.

Turning to silver, Larsson noted that spot silver (XAGUSD) has bounced from the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement at $30 per ounce, and he believes the gray metal is likely to resume its uptrend.

“Daily RSI is still showing positive sentiment with no divergence, indicating silver could push to levels above 32.52,” he wrote.

Looking at the weekly chart, Larsson said that “If it takes out 32.52, there is no strong resistance until around 34.40–35.40.”

“A break below 30 could continue the correction down to the 0.618 retracement at 28.50,” he concluded.

Gold prices are continuing to hold their earlier gains, with spot gold last trading at $2,351.37 per ounce for a gain of 0.74% on the session.

Silver, meanwhile, continues to lead the metals complex on Monday, with spot silver last trading at $31.522 per ounce, up nearly 4 full percentage points on the daily chart.

Kitco Media

Ernest Hoffman

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

A higher for longer monetary policy is spooking gold; prices see the biggest drop in eight months

A higher for longer monetary policy is spooking gold; prices see the biggest drop in eight months teaser image

While central bank purchases and robust Asian demand have created a long-term uptrend in gold, uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy continues to generate significant short-term volatility.

At the start of the week, gold prices rallied to a record high above $2,450 an ounce as markets started to solidify expectations that the Federal Reserve was on track to cut rates two times this year.

However, the new breakout rally proved short-lived as gold prepares to end the week more than $100 lower. June gold futures last traded at $2,334.90 an ounce, down nearly 5% from its record highs; prices are down 3.4% from last Friday, its worst selloff in eight months.

The Federal Reserve's minutes from the April/May Federal Open Market Committee meeting show a hawkish sentiment, with the central bank reluctant to cut interest rates as inflation pressures remain elevated.

"Participants noted disappointing readings on inflation over the first quarter and indicators pointing to strong economic momentum and assessed that it would take longer than previously anticipated for them to gain greater confidence that inflation was moving sustainably toward 2 percent," the minutes said.

The minutes also noted that some committee members are willing to raise interest rates if inflation continues to creep higher.

"This revelation pushed back rate cut expectations, with November replacing September as the likely timing for the first cut," said Ricardo Evangelista, Senior Analyst at ActivTrades. "This shift drove an increase in Treasury yields and a stronger dollar, punishing the price of the non-yielding precious metal."

Lukman Otunuga, Manager Of Market Analysis at FXTM, said that gold's selloff ahead of the U.S. Memorial Day long weekend could create more downside pressure for the yellow metal in the near term.

"With traders now only pricing one Fed rate cut in 2024, the scales of power could be shifting in favor of bears," he said.

Otunuga added that in the current environment, the gold market will be sensitive to next week's inflation data. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE), the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, will be released on Friday.

"Signs of cooling price pressures have the potential to rekindle Fed cut hopes, boosting gold prices. If the PCE report prints above market forecasts, this may deal another blow to Fed cut expectations – dimming gold prices even further," he said. "Talking technicals, the downside momentum could take prices toward the $2300 support level and lower. For bulls to jump back into the game, a move back above $2385 may be required."

Despite the broader bullish sentiment in the marketplace, some analysts note that near-term momentum is turning for gold .

"It certainly wouldn't be much of a stretch to see [gold] retest $2,300. This level, and the area just below, acted as support earlier this month, and it feels as if it wouldn't take much selling to push it back down there. But as ever, strong rallies can appear out of nowhere, particularly after significant pullbacks," said David Morrison, Senior Market Analyst at Trade Nation, in a note Friday.

Alex Kuptsikevich, Senior Market Analyst at FxPro, said he also sees signs of shifting near-term momentum in the marketplace; however, he added that the precious metal could be bought on dips.

"There is a divergence between the RSI and the price dynamics on daily timeframes, where a higher local price high corresponds to a lower peak in the Relative Strength Index. This is seen as a depletion of buying strength and often precedes a major decline or reversal," he said. "However, the latest decline may be a short-term correction, effectively letting off steam and clearing the way to the upside. Still, gold is above its 50 and 200-day moving averages."

Looking at gold's technical picture, analysts have said that investors and traders need to watch initial support between $2,300 and $2,285 an ounce.

In a recent interview with Kitco News, Nitesh Shah, Director of Research at WisdomTree, said that he expects official sector demand to support higher prices.

Shah explained that while central banks aren't focused on gold's price as they look to diversify their reserves, they will still be opportunistic and buy at a discount when they can.

"I suspect, every price dip we see, central banks will be buying. They know that if they want a cheaper price, they had better load up now because the price is only going higher," he said.

With central bank demand providing solid support in the marketplace, Shah said it is only a matter of time before Western Investors jump in.

While Friday's inflation numbers will be the main focus in the shorted trading week, economists will pay close attention to updated GDP numbers and consumer confidence data.

Economic data to watch next week:

Tuesday: US Conference Board Consumer Confidence,

Thursday: Preliminary U.S. Q1 GDP, weekly jobless claims, pending home sales

Friday: US PCE and personal income and spending

Kitco Media

Neils Christensen

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley