Gold silver slightly down as next US inflation data point awaited

Gold, silver slightly down as next U.S. inflation data point awaited

Gold and silver prices are modestly down near midday Wednesday. A firmer U.S. dollar index today is a negative “outside market” force working against the precious metals market bulls. Also, the near-term technical postures for gold and silver are still leaning bearish, which is inviting some of the chart-based traders to the sell sides. April gold was last down $3.10 at $2,041.00. March silver was last down $0.182 at $22.35.

U.S. stock index futures are weaker near midday. Bitcoin prices have soared this week and are presently trading above $61,000. Barron’s today reported bitcoin’s rise is due to better risk appetite in the marketplace, the big rally in the technology heavy Nasdaq stock index, and notions the Federal Reserve will lower U.S. interest rates later this year.

Today’s revision of fourth-quarter 2023 U.S. gross domestic product readings showed GDP up 3.2%, year-on-year, versus the initial reading of up 3.3%. The 4Q personal consumption expenditures) PCE price index was up 1.8%, year-on-year, versus up 1.7% in the advance report. The core PCE price index was up 2.1% in 4Q, compared to the advance reading of up 2.0%. Today’s GDP data was not a big markets-mover, as the numbers did not stray far from market expectations.

The bigger U.S. data point of the week is likely going to be Thursday morning’s personal income and outlays report for January, which also includes the PCE inflation indexes. The PCE price index in January is seen up 2.6%, year-on-year, while the core PCE price index is seen up 2.9% in the same period. Those forecasts are just slightly higher than the readings seen in the December report. It’s been said the Federal Reserve officials pay extra close attention to the inflation data in the personal income and outlays report.

Recent U.S. inflation numbers have come in a bit warmer than expected. Not hot, but still warm enough to likely have swayed the Federal Reserve into reckoning it will wait until the second half of 2024 to consider lowering interest rates.

The market to watch Thursday morning following the personal income and outlays report will be the U.S. Treasury futures markets. Immediately after the data is released at 8:30 a.m. EST, the Treasury bond and note futures markets’ price action will indicate what the marketplace thinks about the latest U.S. inflation data. Remember that Treasury futures prices move in the opposite direction of the more closely followed yields. U.S. T-Bond and T-Note prices have been trending down the past four weeks. That suggests Treasury traders suspect U.S. inflation data will continue to come in too warm to allow the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates this spring. So watch the U.S. Treasury bond and note futures markets

Wednesday morning. You can bet other market traders will have one eye on the bond markets right after the report. Remember the old market adage: “Bond traders are the smartest guys in the room.”

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher. Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $79.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching around 4.28%.

Technically, April gold futures bears have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the February high of $2,083.20. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $2,000.00. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $2,053.20 and then at $2,061.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $2,033.40 and then at $2,025.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

March silver futures bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the February high of $23.56. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the February low of $21.975. First resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of $22.71 and then at $23.00. Next support is seen at today’s low of $22.245 and then at $22.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

March N.Y. copper closed down 155 points at 381.25 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The copper bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the January high of 394.70 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the February low of 365.50 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 387.15 cents and then at last week’s high of 390.85 cents. First support is seen at 380.00 cents and then at 375.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

Kitco Media

Jim Wyckoff

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Bitcoin Pops Above 62000 For First Time Since November 2021 As Market Enters Extreme Greed Territory

Bitcoin Pops Above $62,000 For First Time Since November 2021 As Market Enters Extreme Greed Territory

By Brenda Ngari – February 28, 2024

Bitcoin broke past the mythical bar of $62,000 on Wednesday for the first time in more than two years after rising by 9.9% over the past 24 hours.

At press time, BTC was trading for $62,308, and the Crypto Fear and Greed index shows the crypto market has delved into the extreme greed phase. The alpha cryptocurrency is up over 20.2% on the weekly chart, 45.7% during the past 30 days, and an eye-popping 155% growth over the last 12 months, according to CoinGecko data.

The last time Bitcoin traded above $62,000 was on Nov. 12, 2021, before BTC plunged into correction mode, erasing 66% of its value to change hands at $19,300 at the start of April 2022.

Bitcoin’s ongoing rally appears to have been driven by a notable increase in institutional interest following the historic launch of U.S.-based spot BTC exchange-traded funds in mid-January. The new nine spot market Bitcoin ETFs registered combined trading volumes of over $2 billion for the second consecutive day on Wednesday. These funds have been a roaring success as investors previously unable to get exposure to Bitcoin in an easy and regulated manner flock to the sector. Collectively, the nine ETFs currently hold over $44 billion in assets.

$100K Possible By Halving?

The Crypto Fear and Greed index, an indicator that measures the overall crypto market investor sentiment on a scale of 1 to 100, recently rose to 82 as Bitcoin rallied. The market is in a state of “extreme greed” for the first time since 2021, highlighting an extremely bullish sentiment among investors as many expect BTC to cross its previous all-time high of $69,000 in the coming days.

Adding fuel to the fire is the much-awaited Bitcoin halving event, which is just 50 days away. Past halvings have led to significant price increases, as the mining rewards are slashed by half, effectively lowering the inflation rate of new Bitcoins entering the market by 50%.

Interestingly, Blockstream CEO Adam Back is confident that the Bitcoin price will hit the $100,000 mark before the pivotal halving event. He cited catalysts such as the liquidation of leveraged shorts, the shift in investor sentiment, and the rocketing buying pressure from ETFs triggering an explosive bull run for Bitcoin.

DISCLAIMER

The views expressed in the article are wholly those of the author and do not represent those of, nor should they be attributed to, ZyCrypto. This article is not meant to give financial advice. Please carry out your own research before investing in any of the various cryptocurrencies available.

The original article written by Brenda Ngari and posted on ZyCrypto.com.

Article reposted on Markethive by Jeffrey Sloe

** Loans, secure funding for business projects in the USA and around the world. Learn more about USA & International Financing at Commercial Funding International. **

Tim Moseley

Gold slightly up in lackluster dealings

Gold slightly up in lackluster dealings

Gold prices are a bit firmer and silver prices a bit weaker near midday Tuesday. Gold is seeing some short covering in the futures market and some perceived bargain hunting in the cash market. Precious metals traders are awaiting the next fundamental even to provide a spark to trading action. That may come with some U.S. inflation data coming out later this week. April gold was last up $6.00 at $2,044.90. March silver was last down $0.046 at $22.48.

U.S. stock index futures are mixed near midday. It’s been a quieter trading week so far.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and trading around $78.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 4.291%.

The U.S. data point of the week is likely going to be Thursday morning’s personal income and outlays report for January, which includes the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation indexes. The PCE price index in January is seen up 2.6%, year-on-year, while the core PCE price index is seen up 2.9% in the same period. Those forecasts are just slightly higher than the readings seen in the December report.

Technically, April gold futures bears have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the February high of $2,083.20. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $2,000.00. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $2,053.20 and then at $2,061.00. First support is seen at this week’s low of $2,034.10 and then at $2,025.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

March silver futures bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the February high of $23.56. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the February low of $21.975. First resistance is seen at $23.00 and then at $23.20. Next support is seen at $22.25 and then at $22.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

March N.Y. copper closed up 5 points at 382.05 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The copper bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the January high of 394.70 cents. The next downside price objective for the

bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the February low of 365.50 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 387.15 cents and then at last week’s high of 390.85 cents. First support is seen at 380.00 cents and then at 375.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.
 

Kitco Media

Jim Wyckoff

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Veteran Trader Raises Bitcoin Price Forecast To 200000 As BTC Surges Past 56000

Veteran Trader Raises Bitcoin Price Forecast To $200,000 As BTC Surges Past $56,000

By Newton Gitonga – February 27, 2024

Bitcoin, the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, has been on a tear this week, surpassing $56,000 for the first time since December 2021. The digital asset started the week on a high note, with its significant uptick on Monday continuing into Tuesday. This rise came despite a decline in the S&P 500, indicating that Bitcoin may be shedding its reliance on traditional equities markets.

The rise in Bitcoin’s price resulted in multiple short liquidations, with data from Coinglass showing that in the past 24 hours, 81,388 traders were liquidated, resulting in a total of $363 million. Notably, $280 million of these liquidations were for short orders.

Meanwhile, despite some indications that the price may be overstretched, particularly on the RSI indicator, the latest pump has ignited a wave of optimism among experts that Bitcoin could continue to rise.

On Tuesday, veteran trader Peter Brandt wrote on X that the thrust above the upper boundary of the 15-month channel has led him to raise his price forecast for the current bull market cycle, which is scheduled to end in August or September 2025, from $120,000 to $200,000.

However, Brandt also noted that he would use laser eyes on social media as a contrary indicator, stating that “Too many laser eyes will be the KOD” (kill on delivery).

The phrase “laser eyes” refers to the trend of crypto enthusiasts, particularly on Twitter, changing their profile pictures to include laser eyes as a way of expressing their bullish outlook on Bitcoin. Brandt’s statement that he will use this trend as a contrary indicator suggests that an increase in the number of people adopting laser eyes on their social media pictures could be a bearish signal.

Other analysts are also optimistic about Bitcoin’s price rising. Seasoned analyst Gert van Lagen wrote that the current parabolic trajectory of Bitcoin since November 2021 indicates that it is on track to hit $200,000 “soon”, suggesting it may reach those levels even before the April halving.

He also noted that the correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 has been strong since the end of 2021. Bitcoin’s price has surged significantly beyond the previous bear market’s 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level.

Meanwhile, on-chain data suggests that whales have been accumulating Bitcoin. According to data from Cryptoquant, new whales are accumulating Bitcoin and are now sitting on a 38% unrealized profit. The realized price for a 30-day active whale cohort is $40,500, indicating that these whales are holding onto their Bitcoin for the long term.

At press time, BTC was trading at $56,511, reflecting a 10.90% surge in the past 24 hours, according to CoinMarketCap.

DISCLAIMER

The views expressed in the article are wholly those of the author and do not represent those of, nor should they be attributed to, ZyCrypto. This article is not meant to give financial advice. Please carry out your own research before investing in any of the various cryptocurrencies available.

The original article written by Newton Gitonga and posted on ZyCrypto.com.

Article reposted on Markethive by Jeffrey Sloe

** Loans, secure funding for business projects in the USA and around the world. Learn more about USA & International Financing at Commercial Funding International. **

Tim Moseley

Growing alarm over US debt: Why the Fed is ‘Dr Frankenstein’s monster’ that is part of the problem Charles Payne

Growing alarm over U.S. debt: Why the Fed is 'Dr. Frankenstein's monster' that is part of the problem – Charles Payne

(Kitco News) – With the U.S. national debt surging above $34 trillion, many prominent investors and financial leaders are raising alarm over a looming crisis. Even Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has weighed in expressing concern that U.S. debt is unsustainable. However, the U.S. central bank is a major part of the problem, according to Charles Payne, Host of Making Money on FOX Business Network and the author of ‘Unbreakable Investor.’

 

Powell issued his own candid warning on U.S. debt during CBS’s ’60 Minutes,’ criticizing lawmakers for effectively borrowing from future generations with their unsustainable fiscal policies and stating that it was time for “an adult conversation.”

“In the long run, the U.S. is on an unsustainable fiscal path,” Powell said on Sunday. “And that just means that the debt is growing faster than the economy … We're effectively borrowing from future generations … It’s time for us to get back to putting a priority on fiscal sustainability. And sooner's better than later.”

While weighing in on the U.S. fiscal policy might be controversial for Powell, the Fed is a big part of the problem when it comes to debt, Payne told Michelle Makori, Lead Anchor and Editor-in-Chief at Kitco News.

“It's a nice sound bite,” Payne said. “But the function of the federal reserve itself belies what he was saying. They've always been the biggest buyers of U.S. Treasuries, which facilitate this crazy nonstop spending on both sides of the political aisle. That's why he had free reign to speak about it. It wasn't like he was pointing fingers at anyone in particular.”

The important thing to understand is how the Fed plays a central role in all this, Payne added. “We're here at the precipice of this situation where [Powell] rightfully acknowledges that there's a problem, but to be quite frank, I don't see the Federal Reserve doing anything about it,” he said. “They play a role in all of this. They're not backing away from this role.”

On top of that, the Fed receives more power and responsibility almost every year. “I think the Federal Reserve is already far too powerful an entity, not truly responsible to anyone, not truly answering to anyone. It's part of the problem. He's pointed out a major problem. Unfortunately, he didn't underscore his part of the problem,” Payne explained.

Payne highlighted that the Fed has become the most powerful entity in the world in its ability to move domestic and even global economies. For more on Payne's insights on the Fed's role outlined in his latest book 'Unbreakable Investor,' watch the video above for details.

"The Federal Reserve is responsible for far too much. And who do they answer to? Realistically, who gets to fire Jerome Powell tomorrow? No one. I'm concerned that we've created this all-powerful entity, almost like Dr. Frankenstein's monster, and within that entity, people would be shocked to learn how left-leaning it is right now,” Payne said.

An organization that is supposed to be nonpartisan has become very political, and there are serious consequences that could come from that. “Overwhelmingly, they’re very liberal, left-leaningDemocrats. These are the folks that will take control of the most powerful entity out there," Payne said. “And I do believe it will be more politicized."

Payne also weighed in on whether he foresees a scenario with no U.S. central bank or one with diminished powers. For insights, watch the video above.

The U.S. ‘fumbled’ its reserve currency status: Accelerating de-dollarization and unsustainable debt levels

Quickly rising U.S. debt levels are becoming one of the top concerns among individuals like JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, who says the U.S. economy is heading toward a financial crisis due to escalating national debt.

Speaking at the Bipartisan Policy Center, Dimon cautioned of a looming "hockey stick" surge in debt, adding that if U.S. lawmakers don’t alter the current path of spending, there could be “rebellion” among foreign owners of U.S. government bonds. "It is a cliff, we see the cliff. It's about ten years out, we're going 60 miles an hour [toward it],” Dimon said.

Also, Tudor Investment founder Paul Tudor Jones warned that even though it may look like the U.S. economy is firing on all cylinders, there is a “debt bomb” under the surface. “We’ve got a 6% to 7% budget deficit. We’re fast-pouring consumption like crazy,” Jones told CNBC. “The only question is … when does that manifest itself in markets? It could be this year, it could be next year. Productivity may mask, and it might be three or four years from now. But clearly, we’re on an unsustainable path.”

This concern around debt could have serious consequences when it comes to the dollar as the global reserve currency, according to Payne. "There's no doubt that the dollarization trend is picking up. We have fumbled this gift, this responsibility of being the world's reserve currency. The only problem is there's no one else out there to take advantage of it right now, but that's not always going to be the case," he said.

Payne added that it was important to pay attention to big oil-producing countries, like Saudi Arabia, accepting payments for oil in currencies other than the U.S. dollar.

To get Payne’s timeline for when the U.S. dollar could permanently lose its reserve currency status and what can replace it, watch the video above.

What does it all mean for the stock market in 2024?

Payne also outlined what this macro environment means for the U.S. stock market this year.

For Payne’s precise stock picks and investment insights, watch the video above.

 

Kitco Media

Anna Golubova

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Bitcoin Leaps Past 54000 Barrier For First Time Since 2021: Will It Crack 60000 This Week

Bitcoin Leaps Past $54,000 Barrier For First Time Since 2021: Will It Crack $60,000 This Week?

By Brenda Ngari – February 26, 2024

Bitcoin jumped above $54,000 on Monday, reaching its highest level in over two years — sparking speculations about a potential return to its lifetime high prices.

Ether (ETH), the market’s second-largest digital coin, also surged by around 3.2%, hitting $3,177 amid a crypto-wide market recovery.

Bitcoin’s Bullish Run

Back in 2021, the world’s largest cryptocurrency, Bitcoin (BTC), flew past $53,000 per coin for the first time in history. After dropping by around 74% from its all-time high in the Terra-powered crisis of 2022, the crypto had a lot of ground to make up. But today, BTC finally roared past the $53,000 level once again.

The price of the flagship cryptocurrency was hovering at $54,452 at press time, according to data from CoinGecko. That’s a 5.0% gain from yesterday and a 2.8% increase from last week.

Bitcoin began the month sitting at just above $42,000 and steadily posted gains until it topped $50K on Feb. 12. This was the first time that BTC had surged above $50,000 since December 2021.

Since then, however, the premier crypto hasn’t made any notable price moves. It had been holding steady above the $50K zone for roughly 14 days now but has mostly been trading between the $51,000 and $52,000 range lately before the rally on Monday.

This jump is mainly attributed to rising investor interest, specifically via spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which have seen substantial inflows. The spot BTC investment vehicles saw nearly $5 billion in net inflow since their debut on Jan. 11, spotlighting the shifting investor preference towards regulated and easily accessible products for crypto exposure.

Can Bitcoin Touch $100,000 This Year?

Despite the ongoing pump, the price of Bitcoin is still 22.7% below the $69,044 all-time high registered in Nov. 2021. However, the longer the ETF inflow persists, the higher the chance of a supply shock propelling Bitcoin above $60,000 in the near term.

Moreover, Bitcoin is expected to undergo the halving event around April 20. The halving programmatically happens every four years and slashes the BTC rewards given to miners for securing the network by 50% to ward off inflation. This means fewer new BTC will be minted after the halving, subsequently slowing the supply expansion. Market pundits predict that the skyrocketing demand for BTC following the Bitcoin ETF launch coupled with the upcoming supply crunch resulting from the halving could send BTC to six digits in no time.

Standard Chartered Bank analysts think BTC is set to reach $100,000 before the end of 2024. Bitcoin’s upcoming halving will be one of the catalysts for the price upside.

DISCLAIMER

The views expressed in the article are wholly those of the author and do not represent those of, nor should they be attributed to, ZyCrypto. This article is not meant to give financial advice. Please carry out your own research before investing in any of the various cryptocurrencies available.

The original article written by Brenda Ngari and posted on ZyCrypto.com.

Article reposted on Markethive by Jeffrey Sloe

** Loans, secure funding for business projects in the USA and around the world. Learn more about USA & International Financing at Commercial Funding International. **

Tim Moseley

Analysts abandon bear cave for bull run retail traders stay balanced but bullish

Analysts abandon bear cave for bull run, retail traders stay balanced but bullish
 

Kitco NEWS has a diverse team of journalists reporting on the economy, stock markets, commodities, cryptocurrencies, mining and metals with accuracy and objectivity. Our goal is to help people make informed market decisions through in-depth reporting, daily market roundups, interviews with prominent industry figures, comprehensive coverage (often exclusive) of important industry events and analyses of market-affecting developments.

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Analysts abandon bear cave for bull run, retail traders stay balanced but bullish teaser image

With the seasonal boost of the Lunar New Year and Valentine’s Day in the rearview mirror, the gold market saw relatively little volatility in the price action this week. Spot gold spent much of the week trading in a $10 range between $2,020 and $2,030 per ounce, though the weekly chart looks more dramatic, as the low of $2,012.81 was set near the open during the overnight session on Sunday evening, while Friday afternoon saw a late push to the weekly high of $2,041.41.

The latest Kitco News Weekly Gold Survey showed Main Street holding steady with a relatively balanced but overall bullish posture heading into the final week of February, while Wall Street analysts abandoned the bear cave to gear up for another projected bull run.

Adrian Day, President of Adrian Day Asset Management, was among those who see further gains for gold next week. “After declining earlier on indications that the Federal Reserve would delay rate cutting after optimistic expectations, the market is now brushing off those issues,” he said. “The underlying fundamentals are positive and supporting gold.”

“I’m sticking with ‘up’ for next week,” said James Stanley, senior market strategist at Forex.com. “USD bulls had an open door after the CPI report last week but given the reaction to the Austan Goolsbee comment about not getting ‘flipped out’ about a single inflation print, that says to me that the Fed really doesn’t want to entertain hawkish policy options at the moment. It’s not really a single inflation print: Core CPI has oscillated around 4% for the past five months, but the fact that the Fed has talked this down is meaningful. And the market reaction so far seems to agree.”

“The other side of that is that the European Central Bank has been holding firm regarding rate cuts and given the large allocation of the Euro in the DXY quote, that could similarly keep pressure on the USD next week, which I expect to be a positive for Gold,” Stanley added.

Adam Button, head of currency strategy at Forexlive.com, took the opposite view of the Fed’s likely response to hot data. “If we get a few more upside economic data surprises, the Fed will start to lose its dovish bias,” he said. “If so, we could see significant declines in gold.”

“The biggest risk to gold right now is if we get hot inflation data again, because a lot of this move right now is safety buying, flight to safety, but also the expectations that there's rate cuts coming sooner than later,” said Bob Haberkorn, Senior Commodities Broker at RJO Futures. “The last monthly data that came out pushed those expectations back further, there's still talk of June, but maybe September.”

Haberkorn said gold has formed a nice base around 2000. “It’s gone through there a few times, but just the geopolitical risk that's possibly on the horizon, coupled with U.S. elections this year, and the expectations of the Fed, has kept gold at that nice support level of $2,000,” he said. “Any dips below there have been getting bought up pretty quick.”

He said that next week, the main things for gold traders to watch will be Treasury yields and the stocks. “The strength in the U.S. equity markets really put a cap on what gold could do this week,” he said. “It's risk-on environment here versus flight-to-safety buying. I think the headline PCE and any Fed speak next week on rate hikes and rate cuts is going to be the next main driver here. I expect gold to remain in this range into the next Fed announcement.”

Haberkorn believes the upcoming Fed speakers will remain consistent in their message. “If one of them does hint towards something with cuts sooner than later, that would be extremely beneficial for the gold bulls at this point,” he said. “But it's pretty impressive that gold has maintained $2,000 given the spot where our interest rates are at. It just highlights the fear that's out there in the world at this point that has strong demand across the board here for gold assets.”

This week, 11 analysts participated in the Kitco News Gold Survey, and Wall Street has done a near-total about-face on gold’s prospects from last week. Eight experts, or 73%, expected to see higher gold prices next week, while one lone analyst, representing 9%, predicted a price drop, and two experts, or 18%, expected gold prices to trade sideways during the coming week.

Meanwhile, 203 votes were cast in Kitco’s online polls, with Main Street maintaining the same basic distribution of views it had last week. 89 retail investors, representing 43%, looked for gold to rise next week. Another 52, or 26%, predicted it would be lower, while 63 respondents, or 31%, were neutral on the near-term prospects for the precious metal.

 

As the Fed’s key measure of inflation, Thursday’s PCE price index will be the highlight among releases next week, but there’s a full docket beyond inflation data. Markets will also be watching new home sales on Monday, durable goods orders and consumer confidence on Tuesday, Wednesday’s Preliminary Q4 US GDP report, pending home sales on Thursday, and ISM manufacturing PMI on Friday.

Darin Newsom, Senior Market Analyst at Barchart.com, sees the technical picture trending solidly green next week. “The short-term trend on April’s daily chart looks to have turned up,” he said. “Initial resistance could be at the recent high of $2,045.50. Beyond that the target is up at $2,061.30, then $2,083.20.”

“Gold rallied five of the past six sessions coming into today,” said Marc Chandler, Managing Director at Bannockburn Global Forex. “The Dollar Index has also fallen in six of the last seven sessions before today.”

Chandler said he expects the dollar to continue to trend lower, as he believes the interest rate adjustment is nearly over. “The market has converged to the three rate cuts the median Fed dot pointed to in December,” he said. “The momentum indicators are turning up. I think there is scope for spot gold to trade toward $2050 in the week ahead.”

He noted that this month’s high near $2065.50 was set on Feb. 1. “Maybe we can see that on a soft employment report on March 8,” Chandler added. “That said, some demand for gold was reported from China, but with higher stocks, FOMO may see less demand for gold for Chinese investors.”

Colin Cieszynski, Chief Market Strategist at SIA Wealth Management, was looking at the upward move in gold markets on Friday.

“I think it might be risk-off,” he said. “We saw earlier in the week, and over the last couple of weeks, when Bitcoin really shot up, gold was really struggling, so I always look at gold versus the U.S. dollar, and then tier-two is gold versus Bitcoin, because when you have people that are looking to trade alternative assets, when they're risk on, they'll trade cryptos, and when they're risk off, they'll do precious metals.”

Cieszynski said gold’s move isn’t so much about people getting fearful, but just an easing of risk appetite now that we're past earnings season. “Every single major piece of news is now out,” he said. “With the Nvidia earnings, Cisco, all the big names have now reported results in the U.S., so we're really at the end of earnings season now. We don't have any of those things coming in to drive more risk appetite.”

He noted that if we see profit taking in the risk markets, that could be beneficial for gold. “I'll go bullish on gold next week,” he said. “It's not necessarily that there's a negative event, it's just a lack of events to keep the party going.”

Cieszynski said that while next week’s PCE report is important, markets tend to underreact to it. “PCE usually is seen as more confirmation,” he said. “I still think most mainstream people don't understand PCE, so they all go off and look at the other ones. In fact, the markets often willfully ignore it in favor of CPI. Whereas if you look at PCE, you can see a mile away what the Fed is going to do.”

Turning to the timing of the Fed’s pivot, Cieszynski said the Fed will actually want to deliver the first rate cut in June if the data allows it, and the timing of the election is a key consideration.

“If you're going to do three rate cuts quarterly, then you'll start at the end of June,” he said. “You'll do June, September, and December. That kind of says, ‘we're on a regular thing,’ and it keeps them away from the election.”

“If they go September, then you'd be talking about them trying to do a rate cut at the end of October, and that's not realistic. They're not going to do anything,” he said. “Let's put it this way: If they don't cut rates at the end of June, then you're looking at two rate cuts, not three, because you're not going to go July-September-November. You might go July-September-December, but they don't seem to like doing that anymore.”

Cieszynski emphasized that the move wouldn’t be about making markets happy, rather it’s about getting on a rate cutting path that works with the election calendar and aligns with their history.

“They don't want people going, ‘the Fed is on, the Fed is off, the Fed is on,” he said. “They don't want it, because that creates instability and undermines confidence. They don't want the Fed to be the wild card. As much as they say they're data-dependent, once they start a program, they try to be fairly consistent and not keep everybody guessing.”

Mark Leibovit, publisher of the VR Metals/Resource Letter, believes U.S. government manipulation is restraining gold’s strength, but foreign buyers are driving the price action regardless.

“Commentary had virtually no reference to government suppression of price,” he said. “Despite that, the physical market outside the U.S. is taking control from the COMEX. Adding to positions on manipulated shakeouts.”

And Kitco Senior Analyst Jim Wyckoff sees gold prices still stuck in their recent channel next week. “Steady and sideways,” he said. “Stiff technical support levels lie just below the market. Yet, there has been no fundamental catalyst to inspire the bulls to get more active on the long side.”
 

Sot gold last traded at $2,036.09 at the time of writing, up 0.58% on the day and 1.14% on the week.

Kitco Media

Ernest Hoffman

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

A major attack on US infrastructure is now at its highest probability Brandon Weichert

A major attack on U.S. infrastructure is now at its highest probability – Brandon Weichert

(Kitco News) – Is the U.S. at risk of a massive cyberattack in the next eight months? The U.S. election year is "the most opportune" time to carry out a cyber 9/11 on U.S. infrastructure, warned Brandon Weichert, geopolitical analyst and author of 'Winning Space.'

The geopolitical threats keep escalating in the first two months of the year, and the latest one could trigger a potential kinetic war in space, Weichert told Michelle Makori, Lead Anchor and Editor-in-Chief at Kitco News.

Last week, the White House confirmed that Russia has developed a "troubling" emerging anti-satellite weapon. U.S. President Joe Biden made a public appearance to reassure the public that there's "no nuclear threat" to the U.S. as Russia is developing this weapon but did confirm that intelligence indicates Russians are working on a weapon to attack U.S. satellites.

This was in response to Mike Turner, the Republican chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, who made a public statement about an unspecified "serious national-security threat" to the U.S., asking President Biden to declassify the information related to this.

Since Turner's announcement, the U.S. government has reportedly been in direct contact with Russia, warning Moscow not to deploy a new nuclear-armed anti-satellite weapon, stressing that it violates the Outer Space Treaty.

Many geopolitical experts like Weichert are concerned that this anti-satellite weapon could be used to attack satellites that are critical to America's military and civilian capabilities.

"This is what I was warning about," Weichert said. "They're going to use either co-orbital satellites or a laser to try to blind our systems to buy them time, create a window of opportunity for their forces on earth to exploit while we're still deaf, dumb, and blind."

To learn about what kind of weapon Russia is developing and how devastating it could be for the U.S., watch the video above.

The impact could be massive, Weichert pointed out. "It's going to knock out our banking," he said. "You won't be able to dial 911. You won't be able to use your debit card, your credit card, or Apple Pay to get gas at the pump. Literally, all of our electronic life in the West will ground to a halt if enough of those satellites are taken out."

Weichert believes that this could also be a strategy by Moscow to push for diplomatic resolution to the war with Ukraine that would allow for more concessions to Russia.

Weichert has been warning about Russia making this move for several years — appearing on Kitco with this message at the end of 2022. Catch up on that interview here.

These warnings also come as cyberattacks surge in the U.S., with FBI Director Christopher Wray warning that Chinese hacking attempts are reaching unprecedented levels.

During the annual Munich Security Conference, Wray said that Beijing is increasingly inserting "offensive weapons within our critical infrastructure poised to attack whenever Beijing decides the time is right."

This week, the U.S. saw significant cell outages, with AT&T's network failing for thousands of its customers. The FBI and Department of Homeland Security are now investigating whether the incident resulted from a cyberattack or a hack.

Pharmacies across the U.S. also reported delays in prescription orders due to a cyberattack against Change Healthcare — one of the nation's largest healthcare technology companies.

Cyber 9/11: This year is the most ‘opportune’ time to strike

The U.S. election year is the most "opportune" time to carry out a large-scale cyberattack, according to Weichert, who sees a chance of that happening between 75-80%.

"2024 is the fulcrum point in the 21st century for the United States. Not only will it determine how our country develops politically and economically over the next 30 or 40 years. But it's also going to determine if we remain the superpower," he explained. "One of the ways our enemies are looking at eroding that is not only with Space Pearl Harbor but also with a cyber 9/11," Weichert explained.

If a major cyberattack were to take place, the most likely timing would be the next eight months. The goal is to create chaos and confusion in order to distract the U.S. from other geopolitical conflicts, he added.

Weichert lists several top geopolitical focal points that could flare up into global-scale conflicts this year. For insights, watch the video above.

To find out whether a major cyberattack is too late to stop, how to prepare for it, what to expect from the U.S. as a response, and how the U.S. Space Force fits in, watch the video above.

Kitco Media

Anna Golubovaformation (Reed Elsevier), where he covered the petrochemicals markets from 2003 to 2005.

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

The Next Crypto Bull Market Is At Hand Ten Essential Tips For Investing In Cryptocurrency

The Next Crypto Bull Market Is At Hand. Ten Essential Tips For Investing In Cryptocurrency.

The recent green light for Bitcoin ETFs has thrust cryptocurrency back into the limelight, and with 2024 shaping up to be a pivotal year for the financial markets, many investors are pondering whether they should tap into the asset class that has delivered the most impressive returns over the past decade, as per Black Rock's analysis

The SEC's approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs marks a notable milestone, giving a significant regulatory stamp of approval to the most prominent cryptocurrency in the world while also providing exposure to the rapidly growing crypto market. This development will likely alleviate some concerns investors may have had about investing in the space, making it more accessible and appealing to a broader range of investors.

Before diving into the world of cryptocurrency, there are ten essential tips to remember. This article aims to provide investors with valuable insights by highlighting ten critical factors to consider when investing in cryptocurrency.


Image source: ishares.com.pdf

Ten Key Tips To Know Before Investing In Crypto 

#1. Exchanges

First and foremost, it's important to understand the various types of exchanges, platforms, and products available that offer crypto. Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have recently gained popularity, providing crypto exposure and a secure and regulated way to invest in cryptocurrency. However, ETFs and similar products face three main issues. 

One concern is that their trading hours are limited to regular stock market hours, unlike the continuous 24/7 trading of cryptocurrencies. As a result, there may be discrepancies in pricing between the ETFs and the actual assets, as well as challenges in entering or exiting positions before significant price fluctuations occur.

Another issue is that they do not permit you to possess the actual asset outright. In cryptocurrency, taking custody of your own funds is typical among seasoned investors. While the self-custody approach may not suit everyone and carries its own set of risks, the advantage is that it removes the counterparty risk associated with ETFs.

The third issue is the limited availability of exchange-traded products that allow investors to invest in altcoins, which are cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin. While some investors may be content with Bitcoin (BTC) exposure, others seek opportunities in alternative cryptocurrencies that offer the potential for significantly higher returns, ranging from 10 to 100 times.


Image source: Investopedia

#2. Volatility

Before investing in cryptocurrency, it's crucial to understand that prices can fluctuate rapidly and unpredictably, especially for alternative coins. Price swings of 10% or more in a short period are common for Bitcoin, while altcoins can experience even more significant fluctuations, with price changes of 20% or more in minutes. This high level of volatility can be stressful and may lead to impulsive decisions based on emotions rather than sound investment strategies. Consequently, many investors tend to buy during strong market upswings and sell during sudden downturns.

Cryptocurrencies experience significant price fluctuations primarily due to their speculative nature. The main reason behind this volatility is that cryptocurrencies are designed to challenge and potentially replace traditional financial systems. Each crypto project aims to address specific aspects of the financial system. Tokens that provide real-world utility within a particular niche may be less speculative.

An additional factor that plays a role is the significant use of leverage trading within the cryptocurrency environment. During bearish periods, minor price declines can snowball into substantial crashes as leveraged traders are forced to liquidate their positions, while in bullish markets, small price increases can rapidly escalate into massive price surges as leveraged traders scramble to maintain their positions.

Fortunately, two strategies can help mitigate the impact of volatility in cryptocurrency trading. Firstly, investing in cryptocurrencies with a larger market cap can provide a lower-risk option, as they tend to experience less price fluctuation than smaller-cap cryptocurrencies. However, this stability comes at the cost of potentially lower returns. Secondly, traders can reduce their exposure to volatility by using less leverage or setting stop losses at prudent levels, informed by technical analysis. Being knowledgeable about chart patterns and trends can aid in making informed decisions.

#3. Categories of Cryptocurrencies

This relates to the third essential aspect to consider before investing in cryptocurrency. It is crucial to understand that not all cryptocurrencies are the same. Generally, there are two main categories of cryptocurrencies – coins and tokens. Coins are digital currencies utilized to cover transaction costs within their respective blockchain networks, like BTC within the Bitcoin blockchain. On the other hand, tokens are digital assets that can be created through smart contracts on specific cryptocurrency blockchains, such as Ethereum or Solana.

The value of coins is typically tied to the blockchain they are a part of. In contrast, tokens often derive value from their usefulness or utility within a specific decentralized application (dApp) or protocol. This distinction is noteworthy because coins tend to perform better than tokens in the cryptocurrency market, likely due to the greater level of effort and investment required to create a new blockchain from scratch.

It is possible for anyone to generate a cryptocurrency token quickly using specific decentralized applications. This has led to a proliferation of tokens, with millions available, while only a select few cryptocurrency coins have gained widespread recognition and utility. Most tokens lack practical use or value, whereas those that serve a purpose tend to exhibit more significant potential for success.

The success of a coin or token is ultimately determined by the narrative it's associated with. Take Bitcoin's BTC, for instance, which is widely regarded as the digital equivalent of gold. This narrative is just one of many that can impact price movements. This article delves into other significant narratives that can shape the performance of coins and tokens.

#4. Quality Information

Finding reliable information about cryptocurrency projects can be a significant challenge. This is due to a shortage of educational resources, the intricate nature of most crypto projects, and a general lack of information available. As a result, it can take time and effort to make informed investment decisions in the cryptocurrency market.

The lack of understanding surrounding cryptocurrency has led to significant financial losses for many investors. Many have sought to solve this issue through online publications and transparent crypto platforms’ blogs and videos, which aim to educate the public about the nature of cryptocurrency and the scams that have plagued the industry conceived by nefarious opportunists seeking to exploit others' ignorance.


Image source: Coinmarketcap

#5. Market Cap

Before investing in cryptocurrency, it's essential to understand the distinction between a crypto's market cap and its price. Many people assume that a crypto's price determines its potential for growth, but in reality, the market capitalization holds greater significance. Many first-time investors in the cryptocurrency market are unaware of this fact. Consequently, some cryptocurrencies with lower price tags tend to perform better than those with higher price tags. 

This is because new investors often assume that a low-priced cryptocurrency has more room for growth and will eventually reach the same level as Bitcoin, making them rich in the process. Practically speaking, it is essential to consider both the price tag, which is attractive to new and inexperienced investors, and the market cap, as it ultimately influences a cryptocurrency's potential increase or decrease in percentage terms.

You can gauge the potential growth of a coin or token by comparing it to more established cryptocurrencies within the same niche or category and observing their growth during previous market upswings. Setting realistic expectations and understanding that smaller-cap assets are unlikely to surpass the dominance of BTC or ETH in the foreseeable future is essential.

#6. Self Custody

Before investing in cryptocurrency, it's crucial to understand the importance of self-custody. In the crypto space, a famous saying goes, "Not your keys, not your crypto." This means that if you don't possess the private keys to your crypto wallet, you don't truly own the cryptocurrency inside it. Self-custody is crucial because it ensures that you have complete control over your digital assets and that they're securely stored in a wallet that only you can access.

So, if you're not given a 12 or 24-word seed phrase, also known as a private key, when creating an account and are required to copy and secure that key in a safe place, you're likely using a custodial service. In other words, your cryptocurrency is being held by a third party, similar to how a bank holds your money. Interestingly, the money in your bank doesn't technically belong to you either, as explained in this article.

It is essential to take control of your own cryptocurrency to achieve true financial independence, which means having the freedom to use your assets as you please and when you please. You need to establish a cryptocurrency wallet and consistently store the coins or tokens you are not currently trading in that wallet.

Cryptocurrency wallets come in various forms, including mobile, browser, and desktop versions. However, a hardware wallet is advised for optimal security, especially for significant crypto holdings. This physical device allows you to store your cryptocurrency offline, providing additional protection.

#7. Portfolio Diversification 

Creating a diversified crypto portfolio is an important consideration before investing in cryptocurrency. While all coins and tokens are part of the crypto market, it is essential to understand that they come with different levels of risk, rewards, and utility.

Bitcoin’s BTC is viewed as a secure investment haven within the cryptocurrency sector. During market downturns, investors often flock to BTC as a safe haven, causing its value to increase. On the other hand, when the markets are thriving, investors tend to move their funds from BTC into more speculative cryptos, starting with Ethereum (ETH) and then to other smaller cryptocurrencies down the list.

Furthermore, stablecoins, which are cryptocurrencies supported by and pegged to traditional currencies, particularly the US dollar, are also considered safe options during times of turbulence in the cryptocurrency market. However, not all stablecoins are created equal, and some are considered safer than others due to their unique characteristics and uses.

A diversified cryptocurrency portfolio should include a mix of established large-cap assets, mid-sized coins with growth potential, and a few small-cap projects with promising futures. It's crucial to avoid over-investing in too many cryptocurrencies, as managing and tracking their performance can become challenging. Instead, focus on gaining exposure to a range of narratives that are likely to drive the next bull market in the crypto space.


Image source: Cwallet.com

#8. Time Horizon

Before investing in crypto, it's essential to consider your investment time frame, and this is closely related to the seventh factor. Cryptocurrency markets tend to fluctuate in a predictable four-year cycle, with the first one to two years typically experiencing a bull market, followed by a bear market during the final two to three years. Understanding this pattern can help you make informed investment decisions and maximize your returns.

These crypto cycles are believed to be influenced by the Bitcoin halving event, which occurs every four years and involves reducing the number of BTC coins given to Bitcoin miners by half. The next halving is anticipated to take place in April 2024.

The cryptocurrency market has traditionally experienced a significant upswing a few months following the halving event. If history is any guide, the next bull run is expected to begin around August or shortly after that, with Bitcoin and most alternative coins reaching new record highs during this time. However, it's important to note that the peak of this cycle may not occur until mid to late 2025, according to recent reports.

If you have been investing in cryptocurrencies before the market reaches its peak frenzy, you will likely see significant profits when it reaches its highest point. Surprisingly, you may not feel inclined to sell your holdings at that point.

As highlighted in the introduction, Crypto has emerged as the best-performing investment category in the past ten years. Retaining and building up significant amounts of well-known cryptocurrencies, such as BTC, during various market fluctuations would have yielded more significant profits than selling them.

This emphasizes that your personal time frame is the key consideration. If you aim for significant profits in the short term, it's advisable to align with the four-year pattern. Yet, if your goal is long-term wealth accumulation, it may be wiser to focus on steady accumulation without overanalyzing the process.

#9. HODL

The ninth key fact to consider before investing in cryptocurrency is that only two assets have consistently outperformed inflation over the past few decades: technology and finance. Notably, cryptocurrency represents a fusion of these two domains and boasts a unique advantage – it cannot be seized or confiscated. This attribute contributes to its value and potential for long-term growth.

This statement applies only to genuinely decentralized cryptocurrencies, as only those can uphold these characteristics. Bitcoin's BTC is considered the most decentralized cryptocurrency, serving as a safeguard or hedge against the entire existing financial system.

Considering the unpredictability of the financial system, it's a good idea to diversify your investments and protect your wealth in case of uncertainty. One way to do this is by investing in an asset that can't be easily seized, such as Bitcoin. Unlike gold, which requires physical storage and security, Bitcoin can be readily stored and transferred using just a seed phrase, which can be memorized for added convenience.

It’s salient to note here that every Bitcoin transaction is recorded on a public ledger and, therefore, is traceable. This transparency can concern individuals who want to distance themselves from the traditional financial system. However, despite this limitation, Bitcoin remains a viable alternative to conventional currencies, apart from gold, particularly for those who value freedom and decentralization.

For emphasis, the notion that central banks aspire to establish a financial system characterized by universal surveillance and control is not a far-fetched conspiracy theory. In fact, various reports have been published explicitly outlining such intentions. This system would enable comprehensive monitoring of all assets, ensuring that every item of value is accounted for and exists within a network that central authorities govern.

In any case, while it may be thrilling to consider the potential earnings in cryptocurrency, it's crucial to bear in mind that preserving these funds could prove challenging if the financial landscape follows its current path. Securing a portion of these profits in a tangible asset for long-term stability is prudent.


Image source: X

#10. Scams

It is crucial to be aware that the world of cryptocurrency investing is rife with scams. The various factors discussed earlier create an environment where misinformation about crypto is prevalent and highly persuasive. Deceptive practices can take the form of fraudulent airdrops and giveaways, with the latter becoming increasingly widespread due to advancements in deep fake technology.

Fraudulent accounts posing as well-known figures in the cryptocurrency space are widespread during periods of market growth. Trying to report or remove all of their comments is futile, and it's crucial to exercise caution when engaging with unsolicited messages or investment opportunities. 

A general guideline is to be cautious of offers that seem too good to be true because they likely are. Additionally, any direct message claiming to be from a prominent crypto personality should be met with skepticism. When interacting with decentralized applications and protocols, it's essential to do your due diligence to avoid losing funds. Finally, storing any coins or tokens not currently being traded on a secure hardware wallet is vital to protect them from potential threats.

This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

 

 

Editor and Chief Markethive: Deb Williams. (Australia) I thrive on progress and champion freedom of speech.  I embrace "Change" with a passion, and my purpose in life is to enlighten people to accept and move forward with enthusiasm. Find me at my Markethive Profile Page | My Twitter Account | and my LinkedIn Profile.

 

 

 

 

 

Tim Moseley

Gold Price News: Gold Drifts As US Jobless Numbers Fall

Gold Price News: Gold Drifts As US Jobless Numbers Fall

Gold prices edged slightly lower on Thursday, after US unemployment figures came in below market expectations, suggesting a slightly stronger economy and less pressure for a loosening of monetary policy.

Prices initially pushed higher to $2,035 an ounce in early morning deals, but it was downhill from the morning peak, with prices dropping as low as $2,020 an ounce by late afternoon.

US initial jobless claims figures were released Thursday showing that the number of people claiming unemployment benefits in the US fell by 12,000 to 201,000 in the week ending February 17, well below market expectations of 218,000, and marking the lowest unemployment level for five weeks.

US stock markets were also higher on Thursday, contributing to the bullish picture of the economy. Any signs of a stronger-than-expected economy tend to ease the pressure on central banks to cut interest rates, allowing more leeway to maintain a hawkish stance on monetary policy for longer. The prospect of an extended period of higher interest rates is bearish for gold because it raises the opportunity cost of holding non-yield-bearing assets like precious metals.

Looking ahead, the immediate outlook for macroeconomic data releases is light, although the markets may pay some attention to the German Ifo Business Climate figures for February due for release on Friday, providing a snapshot of the health of the EU’s powerhouse economy. Beyond that, eyes will be on Monday’s speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde for clues on the EU economy and the central bank’s monetary policy stance.

Frank’s experience covering the commodities markets spans 22 years, with a particular specialism in metals, carbon and energy markets. He has worked as a senior editor for S&P Global Commodity Insights (formerly Platts) and before this, at ICIS-LOR, a part of Reed Business Information (Reed Elsevier), where he covered the petrochemicals markets from 2003 to 2005.

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

The Artist that came out of the Winter