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Gold Price Forecast – March 2024

Gold Price Forecast – March 2024

Key Takeaways

The gold price is still trading above $2,000 an ounce despite a challenging scenario.

The demand for gold from jewellery, the industrial sector and central banks remains strong.

The price of gold could find a new positive impulse above $2,070, while a decline below $1,980 would denote weakness.

Gold Forecast for March

Despite a challenging environment, gold is still trading above the $2,000 an ounce mark. What are the main market drivers for gold to monitor in March, and what could we expect from the price of gold in the next few weeks?

Let us explore the scenario, starting with a brief macroeconomic analysis.

Gold and macroeconomic scenarios

In February, the US Dollar remained strong, while bond yields extended the rebound that started in the first weeks of the year. The latest inflation data released in the United States was hotter than expected (3.1% vs forecasts of 2.9%), indicating a prolonged journey towards the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. This situation has reduced the pressure on the Fed to cut rates from the current record level of 5.50%. Investors are now fairly convinced that any reduction in borrowing costs won’t commence until at least the May meeting, possibly even June.

This persistent hawkish stance has not dampened enthusiasm for equities, while Bitcoin has returned above $50,000.

In this context, gold found itself in a less favourable position, with alternative assets temporarily diverting investor interest away from precious metals. Despite this, gold exhibited little volatility. The only significant decline was triggered by the release of the US inflation at higher-than-expected levels – but gold demonstrated resilience, quickly recovering to surpass the $2,000 mark.

Gold Market Drivers

The timing of the next moves from central banks remains the key market driver for gold. Any news of sooner-than-expected rate cuts could lift up bullion prices, while further hawkish rhetoric could be a bearish catalyst for gold. Also, the geopolitical situation needs to be monitored carefully, with the demand of gold as a safe haven investment that could increase in case of escalation of tensions in the Middle East. As we will analyze later, the physical demand of gold remains strong, supporting the market.

Gold Technical Analysis

In the first six weeks of 2024, bullion oscillated in a tiny lateral trading range between $2,000 and $2,060. The dip following the US inflation data was quickly absorbed, confirming the solidity of the market.

From a technical perspective, a clear surpass of the resistance levels of $2,070-2,080 could pave the way for further gains, with the next target on the record high around $2,130. Should bearish impulses take hold, the first support levels are placed at $1,980, aligning with February’s low, and $1,930, at the bottom reached in November 2023. For now, the low of last October at $1,810 seems a distant threshold.

Gold demand

In a recent report, the World Gold Council highlighted that “2023 was marked by surprising resilience in jewellery and technology demand”, adding that it “considers it likely that last year’s levels will be repeated in 2024”.

Moreover, “central bank buying maintained a breakneck pace, with annual net purchases of 1,037 tonnes, almost match[ing] the 2022 record”. The robust demand from the jewellery and technology sectors and central bank acquisitions have compensated for the outflows experienced in the ETF sector. This trend will likely continue in March and the next few months, with central banks remaining active buyers while the demand from passive funds remains weak.

Carlo is an external market analyst for Kinesis Money. With a credential background in Economic Finance and International Exchange (MA), Carlo’s critical analysis of gold and silver markets’ performance is frequently quoted by leading publications such as Forbes, Reuters, CNBC, and Nasdaq.

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Gold silver weaker as US stock markets post good gains

Gold, silver weaker as U.S. stock markets post good gains

Gold and silver prices are modestly down and near their session lows in midday U.S. trading Thursday. Solid gains in the U.S. stock indexes and a risk-on trading day today are negatives for the safe-haven metals. Chart-based selling is also featured in gold and silver today as the near-term technical postures for both metals tilt slightly toward the bears. April gold was last down $4.30 at $2,030.30. March silver was last down $0.114 at $22.77.

Early mild gains in gold were erased when the U.S. dollar index rebounded from its overnight losses and moved above unchanged on the day.

Asian and European stock markets were mixed but mostly firmer in overnight trading. Japan’s Nikkei stock index Thursday hit a record high for the first time in 34 years. U.S. stock index futures are higher and near the daily highs, with the S&P 500 futures and Dow Jones Industrial average hitting new record highs.

 

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly up. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $78.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 4.325%.

Technically, April gold futures bears have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a 2.5-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the February high of $2,083.20. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the November low of $1,975.10. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $2,045.50 and then at $2,050.00. First support is seen at this week’s low of $2,023.90 and then at $2,007.60. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

March silver futures bears have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. However, a nine-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart has been negated to suggest a market bottom is in place. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $24.50. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the February low of $21.975. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $23.20 and then at last week’s high of $23.56. Next support is seen at $22.50 and then at $22.25. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

March N.Y. copper closed up 135 points at 388.85 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. The copper bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage and have momentum. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid

technical resistance at the January high of 394.70 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the February low of 365.50 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 390.85 cents and then at 394.70 cents. First support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 385.15 cents and then at this week’s low of 380.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.
 

Kitco Media

Jim Wyckoff

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley