HOME

Gold gains on safe-haven demand weak US data easy Fed

Leave a comment

Gold gains on safe-haven demand, weak U.S. data, easy Fed

Gold prices are firmly higher in midday U.S. trading Thursday, on some safe-haven demand amid heightened Middle East tensions, some weaker U.S. economic data and a dovish lean by the Federal Reserve this week. December gold was last up $18.00 at $2,490.10. September silver was down $0.308 at $28.635.

Middle East tensions are running even higher late this week following air strikes in Iran and Lebanon that killed senior Hamas and Hezbollah officials. The strikes are widely believed to be Israel’s doing. That has boosted safe-haven demand for gold and to a lesser degree for silver.

A weaker-than-expected U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers index for July also fell into the camp of the precious metals markets bulls, suggesting the Federal Reserve will be able to cut interest rates this fall. The 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is falling and fell below 4.0% today, presently yielding 3.98%, which is also bullish for gold and silver.

The marketplace has digested the latest FOMC meeting’s results that left U.S. interest rates unchanged but saw the Fed and Chairman Powell lean dovish by implying the Fed can lower interest rates as soon as September, providing inflation numbers remain tamer. The marketplace is presently factoring in a 100% chance for a rate cut in September.

Meantime, the Bank England cut its main interest rate by 0.25% today.

Traders are awaiting Friday morning’s U.S. monthly jobs report for July from the Labor Department, with the key non-farm payrolls numbers seen coming in at up 185,000 versus the June gain of 206,000.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher. Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading around $77.25 a barrel.

Technically, December gold bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the contract high of $2,537.70. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $2,400.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $2,506.60 and then at the April high of $2,516.60. First support is seen at the overnight low of $2,474.00 and then at $2,450.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.

September silver futures bears have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are still in a downtrend on the daily bar chart, but just barely now. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $30.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the July low of $27.45. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $29.29 and then at $29.50. Next support is seen at Wednesday’s low of $28.39 and then at $28.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

(Hey! My “Markets Front Burner” weekly email report is my best writing and analysis, I think, because I get to look ahead at the marketplace and do some market price forecasting. Plus, I’ll throw in an educational feature to move you up the ladder of trading/investing success. And it’s free! Sign up here; it’s real easy. https://www.kitco.com/services

Kitco Media

Jim Wyckoff

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

HOME

BRICS Countries Advancing with a New Payment System A Breakthrough for Global Commerce Potentially Disrupting the Dominance of the US Dollar

Leave a comment

BRICS Countries Advancing with a New Payment System. A Breakthrough for Global Commerce Potentially Disrupting the Dominance of the US Dollar

Recent headlines suggested that the longstanding 50-year agreement between the United States to exclusively price oil in US dollars had expired, sparking concerns that the era of the Petrodollar may end. Despite initial fears, it was later confirmed that this information was inaccurate. Nevertheless, significant developments occurred during this period as BRICS introduced a new payment system, and Saudi Arabia subsequently became a participant in this initiative.

A potentially game-changing development is on the horizon as a consortium of emerging nations, known as BRICS, prepares to unveil a new payment system, which it has been working on for years and is based on the Ethereum blockchain. This innovation, with its potential to disrupt the US dollar's dominance, could signal a long-awaited breakthrough for global commerce and provide relief to countries struggling with crippling economic sanctions and the exploitative petrodollar system.

BRICS Explained

BRICS stands for Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. The original acronym was BRIC, coined by former Goldman Sachs Economist Jim O'Neill in 2001. At that time, four countries were involved. O'Neill's forecast suggested that these countries would experience significant economic expansion by 2050 due to increasing populations, low labor costs, and abundant natural resources.

Geopolitical dynamics and fluctuations in commodity prices also played a significant role. The timing coincided with China's accession to the World Trade Organization and strong commodity demand for developing countries aligning themselves with the US. However, as a previous article on the BRICS nations noted, this dynamic began to shift following the global financial crisis. As Xi Jinping took the helm, China began to chart its course, coinciding with a sharp decline in commodity prices.

Unsurprisingly, Wall Street's sentiment regarding the BRICS shifted. Despite this shift, the article highlighted that the underlying factors that initially drove Goldman Sachs’ optimism about the BRICS remain unchanged. The BRICS countries still have growing populations, low labor costs, and commodity abundance. The only element missing in this equation was a vital commodity market. Some may have noticed that commodity prices worldwide have been rising over the last few years, increasing the geopolitical power of the BRICS. 

It's also no surprise that the general public has begun to take notice, but many Western elites remain in denial about the resurgence of the BRICS nations. Despite this skepticism, the BRICS nations have continued to make significant strides, impressing with their resilience and determination. 

Consequently, accessing reliable information about these countries' developments has become a challenge, especially for those living in Western societies. This scarcity of credible details makes it even more daunting to stay informed about pressing issues, and one topic that has garnered significant attention is the prospect that the bloc will launch its shared currency to rival the US dollar. 

Numerous sources suggest that gold or cryptocurrency might support the proposed BRICS currency, yet no proof exists to confirm its imminent arrival. Upon examination of the origins of these reports, it becomes apparent that they mainly consist of informal remarks by officials from BRICS nations or concepts that have yet to progress beyond the initial proposal stage.

For the time being, establishing an actual BRICS currency is not a current priority. However, developing an alternative payment infrastructure is definitely under consideration. It's essential to note that a BRICS currency and a BRICS payment system are two distinct concepts. A BRICS currency would be akin to the US dollar or the euro. In contrast, a BRICS payment system refers to a network of payment channels that can facilitate transactions in any currency.

Russian companies have been engaging in trade with Chinese companies by utilizing the USDT stablecoin from Tether, which is linked to the value of the US dollar. This development is highly noteworthy as it brings attention to a significant issue. The challenge the BRICS countries face is not the US dollar itself but rather the infrastructure for carrying out financial transactions on which the US dollar relies. This significant issue is represented by SWIFT, which is recognized as the most extensive payment system globally.

Evidently, SWIFT's allegiance lies with Western nations, and it's been increasingly used as a financial weapon to exert and restrict transactions to specific entities. In reality, the SWIFT system poses a more significant challenge for the BRICS nations than the US dollar itself. Consequently, the BRICS have been actively developing a substitute for the SWIFT system.

This new payment system was unveiled during a week when the media was abuzz with speculation about the impending demise of the US-Saudi oil agreement. Interestingly, Saudi Arabia joined the BRICS payment system just before the rumored expiration date, a move that could potentially shift the balance of power in global trade. 

It's tempting to suspect that the frenzy surrounding the US-Saudi oil deal was intentionally exaggerated to divert attention from the fact that BRICS had introduced a rival to SWIFT. This development has far-reaching implications, dwarfing the significance of any oil deal or BRICS currency. If the BRICS payment system gains widespread adoption, it could potentially dislodge the US dollar from its dominant position.


Source: Central Banks Payment News

BRICS Payment System

The BRICS Payment System, known as mBridge, was developed by the central banks of Thailand, Hong Kong, China, and the United Arab Emirates in collaboration with the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), often referred to as the "bank for central for central banks.” Notably, mBridge is a digital currency platform that utilizes Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs). The BIS has been instrumental in supporting central banks globally in developing and implementing their respective CBDC systems.

Those familiar with CBDCs are likely aware of their unsettling implications, as they grant governments and central banks unprecedented control over individuals' financial decisions, habits, and savings limits. However, it's worth noting that CBDCs come in various forms, each with distinct characteristics and intended uses.

CBDCs have two categories: retail CBDCs, intended for public use, and wholesale CBDCs for a select group of individuals and organizations. The mBridge system falls under the latter category, designed exclusively for institutional use. As previously noted, mBridge is built on the Ethereum network, essentially replicating its architecture. It utilizes a blockchain called mBL, written in Solidity programming language, and employs the Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM) to execute smart contracts.

A critical distinction between Ethereum and the mBL lies in the mBL's private and restricted access. Utilizing the mBL is exclusive to central and commercial banks, which also control the network's infrastructure. Specifically, participating central banks operate as de facto validators, while participating commercial banks act as de facto relays, overseeing data flow within the network.

Another critical distinction between mBridge and Ethereum is their transaction speeds, with mBridge appearing much faster. This is attributed to its innovative Dashing consensus protocol, developed by Chinese researchers, which validates blocks by inspecting random segments rather than the entire block. The primary objective of mBridge is to empower users to circumvent the existing US-dominated financial infrastructure. This includes sidestepping the SWIFT system, avoiding all intermediary banks in cross-border transactions, and trading the US dollar in Forex. 

The US dollar is a bridge currency, especially for large transactions. For example, if you want to swap a large amount of New Zealand dollars for Canadian dollars, you'll have to swap New Zealand dollars for US Dollars and then US dollars for Canadian dollars. That's because it's not always possible to trade large amounts of New Zealand dollars directly for Canadian dollars. 

Using mBridge, you can convert New Zealand dollars to Canadian dollars in a seamless, direct transfer between New Zealand and Canadian banks. The mBridge network system bypasses the need for the US dollar as a bridge currency, eliminates the involvement of intermediary banks, and circumvents the traditional SWIFT infrastructure, marking a significant breakthrough.


Source: Cointelegraph Magazine

Besides facilitating international trade, removing the US dollar as the bridge currency means the demand for tens of trillions of dollars from large Forex transfers disappears. Simply put, the reduced reliance on the US dollar for international transactions substantially decreases demand, undermining the currency's value. As with any asset, the value of the US dollar is ultimately determined by the balance of supply and demand. Suppose the demand for US dollars dwindles as countries turn to alternative currencies for Forex transactions, coupled with a steady or increasing supply. In that case, it will inevitably lead to a decline in value.

To the many who believe a retail CBDC for the general populous is dystopian, including the presumptive 47th POTUS, Donald Trump, this report from the BIS CBDC survey indicates that central banks are shifting their focus away from retail CBDCs and toward wholesale CBDCs and this is likely a saving grace for us. The data reveals that 94% of central banks are more inclined to launch a wholesale CBDC than a retail one, sparking speculation that this shift may be driven by a desire to participate in the mBridge initiative.


Source: Bitcoin Magazine @ X

BRICS Endgame

The BRICS nations' financial plans have taken a significant step forward in conjunction with Saudi Arabia's recent announcement of joining the mBridge initiative. The BIS announced they would introduce the new payment platform on the same day. The BIS also reported that the number of observing members, such as central and commercial banks, who are interested in joining mBridge has increased to 26.

The significance of this development goes far beyond the adoption of mBridge. Notably, the BRICS grouping recently expanded its reach by inviting six nations to join its expanding network, now dubbed BRICS Plus. The invitees were Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Argentina. It is worth noting that all of these countries, except Argentina, accepted the invitation. Argentina's decision to decline is interesting, particularly in light of the perceived alignment of its new president, Javier Milei, with the Western bloc.

Regardless of the circumstances, it is intriguing that Saudi Arabia's intentions regarding BRICS membership have been shrouded in ambiguity, sparking curiosity. The media has reported conflicting news, with some sources citing official statements to claim that Saudi Arabia has joined the group, while others, also referencing official sources, assert that it has not.

The proverbial expression holds that actions speak louder than words, and Saudi Arabia's decision to become a part of mBridge clearly demonstrates this. Various political analysts have highlighted that Saudi Arabia's ambiguity regarding joining the BRICS is likely a strategic move to avoid antagonizing its Western counterparts. Similarly, India has maintained a low profile regarding the BRICS, which is understandable given that the BRICS doesn't have a formalized structure.

The BRICS, or BRICS Plus, functions as a group of nations from the global South; as mentioned in an earlier publication, no headquarters, official website, or charter outlines its objectives. This could be due to the need for the BRICS countries to create a financial framework before forming an official entity. 

To provide context, it is essential to note that the United Nations, dominated by Western interests, was founded after establishing the Bretton Woods system. A key factor contributing to the Bretton Woods system's dominance was the influence of institutions such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank, which effectively ensnared many nations in a web of debt denominated in US dollars, often with unfavorable conditions.

If history is any guide, the BRICS should follow a comparable route. As it happens, the BRICS have already taken a significant step in this direction by establishing the New Development Bank (NDB) in 2015, a financial institution analogous to the IMF and World Bank. The NDB stands out as a tangible entity within the BRICS framework, boasting a substantial $100 billion allocated for infrastructure projects and loans. This positioning, in theory, grants the NDB the ability to exert influence similar to that of its Western counterparts, providing critical financial support to countries in need while encouraging them to adopt policies that align with the interests of the BRICS nations.

In practice, the primary challenge lies with the current payment system. If the NDB were to pursue aggressive lending practices comparable to the IMF, it could attract scrutiny from the US and its supporters, resulting in complications for the NDB and its borrowers.  Moreover, providing loans to nations that are not strong allies of the US could also lead to payment difficulties. The mBridge system, however, resolves these issues.

While there is no definitive proof that the NDB will utilize mBridge, several indicators suggest a strong connection. The NDB is headquartered in China and is one of the five founding members of mBridge alongside Hong Kong. Additionally, the UAE, another key player in mBridge, holds a stake in the NDB. Furthermore, Saudi Arabia has been actively seeking to become a member of the NDB since last year, bringing the number of mBridge participants with ties to the NDB to four out of five.

The fifth is Thailand, which has reportedly expressed interest in joining the BRICS partly because of their discontent with the treatment they receive from Western countries. The governance procedure of mBridge still needs to be fully understood. Still, it is known to exist, and most participants are expected to vote to integrate the NDB if the matter arises.


Source: Blockstreet

Looking Ahead: What's Next for BRICS and mBridge?

The future of the BRICS nations and the mBridge payment system is multifaceted. It's essential to note that mBridge is still in its infancy, having only recently launched as a minimum viable product (MVP), which, as the name suggests, is its initial public release. However, it is evident that BRICS primarily serves as an economic endeavor. Furthermore, the increasing number of countries joining the initiative highlights their interest in the financial advantages of affiliating with major commodity producers, underscoring the profound importance of mBridge.

The primary factor behind the substantial value of the US dollar is its necessity in global trade, particularly for purchasing essential commodities such as oil that are denominated in dollars. This raises a significant question: As a nation, do you require the commodities themselves more, or do you need the dollars to acquire them?

The degree to which a country relies on US dollars is primarily determined by its natural resources. Nations with an abundance of exports, such as oil or minerals, tend to be less dependent on the US dollar, whereas those with limited resources often rely heavily on it. This dynamic significantly impacts global politics, leading to a predictable pattern of geopolitical alignments. Nations with solid commodity reserves wield greater independence and are more likely to challenge the US and its allies, whereas those without must form alliances with the US to ensure access to the dollar.

However, it's important to note that the focus is not solely on the US dollar per se; it's the rails on which it runs. The primary purpose of mBridge is to provide nations lacking in commodities the ability to buy these goods directly from producers, bypassing the need for US-dominated infrastructure. In other words, this platform grants them liberation from American influence, empowering them to act with greater autonomy.

This value proposition is quite appealing because, like most individuals, most nations desire to be independent and avoid getting involved in conflicts between major powers. They aim to exist peacefully, and mBridge offers them the means to maintain neutrality. However, implementing this may pose challenges, leading to intriguing situations. A notable instance is the extensive financial sanctions imposed on Russia, hindering its ability to utilize US dollars in trade and forcing it to rely on the currencies of other trading partners.

In the previous year, a Russian official disclosed that Russia had collected a substantial amount of Indian rupees from selling oil to India. Typically, Russia would exchange these rupees for US dollars, which could then be spent on goods from other nations. However, this is no longer an option. As a result, Russia is limited to using these rupees solely to buy goods from India, despite already having most of the products India offers.

India's major export is petroleum products, which Russia already has in abundance. India's other export offerings, such as rice and textiles, are limited in their appeal to Russia, which already meets most of its needs in these areas. It's akin to having an open-ended line of credit that can only be used at a single store that predominantly sells items you already possess in abundance.

A critical challenge comes to the forefront as the mBridge system expands to include more currencies. This will lead to the necessity of introducing a bridge currency similar to the US dollar. This is where the conflicting information regarding the BRICS currency begins to clarify. 

While there has been a widespread belief that the BRICS currency would be accessible to the general public and function as a standard retail currency, it is more probable that it will be utilized on a wholesale level within the confines of the mBridge system, exclusively by the central banks and commercial banks involved in the system.


Source: Rich Turrin Substack

The primary function of the BRICS currency is likely to prevent countries from accumulating large amounts of any given currency. The concept of a commodity-backed BRICS currency becomes more plausible when viewed as a bridge currency within the mBridge platform. Moreover, establishing this currency will enable smaller nations with more minor currencies to participate in the mBridge system.

Overall, introducing mBridge may signal the beginning of the end of the US dollar's supremacy and potentially a shift away from the increasingly fragmented global trade landscape. Progress in this direction will be gradual, with various obstacles to overcome. The existing US powers will unlikely relinquish their grip on the financial system without a fight and will likely employ all available means to preserve their control. 

What Else Could Be On The Horizon?

A lot is happening behind the scenes, and a significant development is unfolding. Speculation is mounting that a coalition is forming between influential leaders, including former US President Trump, Russia's Vladimir Putin, China's Xi Jinping, India's Narendra Modi, tech mogul Elon Musk, and Prince Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia. 

This alliance is becoming increasingly apparent as the year advances with widespread optimism, fueled by the belief that a golden age is on the horizon, where nations can peacefully coexist, united in mutual understanding and cooperation.

Just recently, the presumptive President Trump vowed to fully support cryptocurrency and make Bitcoin a crypto powerhouse. This includes setting up crypto mining operations in the US, implementing transparent regulatory guidance to benefit the crypto industry, and ‘cleaning up’ the corrupt banking system. 

This initiative will create an extensive new banking system linked to the BRICS system in the Americas, paving the way for a global trading network based on blockchain technology that can monitor illicit activities like money laundering and human trafficking and ensure full financial transparency.

As Trump said at the 2024 Bitcoin Conference,

“Bitcoin is not threatening the dollar; the behavior of the current US Government is threatening the dollar. The danger to our financial future does not come from crypto; it comes from Washington, DC.”


 

Editor and Chief Markethive: Deb Williams. (Australia) I thrive on progress and champion freedom of speech.  I embrace "Change" with a passion, and my purpose in life is to enlighten people to accept and move forward with enthusiasm. Find me at my Markethive Profile Page | My Twitter Account | and my LinkedIn Profile.

 

 

 

 

Tim Moseley

HOME

Gold Price News: Gold Hits Two-Week Low After US GDP Growth Surprises

Leave a comment

Gold Price News: Gold Hits Two-Week Low After US GDP Growth Surprises

Gold prices fell sharply on Thursday, after US GDP figures showed surprise growth in the second quarter.

Prices fell as low as $2,354 an ounce on Thursday, down from just under $2,400 an ounce in late trades on Wednesday. The latest action means gold prices have fallen to their lowest for more than two weeks — testing the lows of around $2,350 an ounce last seen on July 9.

KAU/USD 1-hourly Kinesis Exchange

US GDP figures were released on Thursday, showing that the economy grew by an annualised 2.8% in the second quarter, up from 1.4% in Q1, and well above market expectations of 2%. That’s a bearish factor for gold prices, which tend to fare worse during times of economic strength when other assets perform more positively.

The latest GDP figures appear to have had little impact on the outlook for US interest rates, with interest rate traders fully pricing in a first rate cut by the US Fed at its September 18 meeting. However, the stronger GDP numbers may indicate that the number and scale of rate cuts needed in the coming months may be lower than previously assumed, and the markets will be watching for further data to support or challenge that outlook.

Also released Thursday, US durable goods orders fell by 6.6% in June, far below the market’s expected increase of 0.3%, and this may have helped stem the day-on-day losses for safe-haven gold.

Any further price downside for gold would bring the $2,300 an ounce level into renewed focus, as this has been a key area of price support in May and June.

Looking ahead, Friday will see the release of the US core PCE price index for June – the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation – for further clues on the trajectory for interest rates, followed by the Michigan consumer sentiment figures for July, which cover the US as a whole, for a further pulse-check on the US economy. The figures have shown four consecutive monthly drops in sentiment up until June, and any further declines could help strengthen the case for more accommodative monetary policy in the US.

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

HOME

Breaking: Trump vows to make Bitcoin a strategic reserve currency

Leave a comment

Breaking: Trump vows to make Bitcoin a strategic reserve currency

Breaking: Trump vows to make Bitcoin a strategic reserve currency teaser image

(Kitco News) – Breaking news from the Bitcoin 2024 Conference as Presidential candidate Donald Trump said he intends to make Bitcoin a strategic reserve currency for the United States.

“Many Americans do not realize that the U.S. government is among the world's largest holders of Bitcoin – The Federal Government has almost 210,000 Bitcoin or 1% of the total supply that will ever exist.”

“But for too long, our government has violated the cardinal rule that every Bitcoiner knows by heart: "NEVER SELL YOUR BITCOIN."

“And so, as the final part of my plan today, I am announcing that if I am elected, it will be the policy of my administration to KEEP 100% of all the Bitcoin the U.S. government currently holds or acquires in the future.”

“This will serve, in effect, as the core of a Strategic National Bitcoin Reserve,” Trump said.

Kitco Media

Jordan Finneseth

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

HOME

Gold Surges as Cooling Inflation Raises Hopes for September Rate Cut

Leave a comment

Gold Surges as Cooling Inflation Raises Hopes for September Rate Cut

The latest economic data has sparked renewed optimism in the gold market, with prices climbing over $20 as investors digested signs of cooling inflation and robust economic growth. This positive sentiment comes as the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, shows continued

progress in the battle against rising prices.

According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, headline inflation declined to 2.5% annually last month, down from May's 2.6%. The core PCE, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, held steady at 2.6%, slightly above Wall Street's forecast of 2.5%. This data suggests that the Fed's restrictive monetary policy is yielding results, bringing inflation closer to its 2% target.

Adding to the positive economic outlook, the advance estimate of second-quarter GDP surpassed expectations, coming in at a robust 2.8% annualized growth rate. This figure, well above the predicted 2%, demonstrates the economy's resilience despite interest rates reaching a 23-year high.

These encouraging reports have fueled speculation about the Fed's next moves. While the probability of a rate cut at next week's FOMC meeting remains low at 4.7%, market sentiment has shifted dramatically for the September meeting. The CME's FedWatch tool now predicts a 100% likelihood of a rate cut in September, with an 87.7%

probability of a quarter-point reduction.

This optimism has translated into significant gains across financial markets. The Dow, S&P 500, and NASDAQ composite indices all rose over 1%. Gold futures basis the most active August contract jumped 0.96% to settle at $2,386. The precious metal's price has now surpassed its 50-day simple moving average, with technical analysis

suggesting price support at $2,350.

As the Fed navigates the delicate balance between taming inflation and supporting economic growth, investors are closely watching for signs of a pivot toward interest rate normalization. The central bank's actions in the coming months could have far-reaching implications for gold prices and the broader financial landscape.

With inflation cooling and economic indicators showing strength, the stage is set for potentially significant market movements.

Kitco Media

Gary Wagner

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

HOME

The US Economy demonstrates unexpected strength in Q2 2024

Leave a comment

The U.S. Economy demonstrates unexpected strength in Q2 2024.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its advance estimate of second-quarter GDP growth, revealing unexpected strength in the U.S. economy. Despite economists' predictions of a 2% annualized growth rate, the actual figure came in at a robust 2.8%, surpassing expectations and demonstrating resilience in the face of

interest rates at a 23-year high.

This growth represents a significant acceleration from the first quarter's 1.4% increase, indicating a strengthening economic trajectory. The report highlighted substantial contributions from both the services and goods sectors, driving consumer spending upward.

In the services category, healthcare, housing, utilities, and recreational services were the primary growth drivers. The goods sector saw notable increases in motor vehicle parts, recreational goods and vehicles, furnishings and durable household equipment, as well as gasoline and other energy goods.

The stronger-than-anticipated economic performance has implications for various market sectors. Individual investors may find less incentive to allocate funds to safe#haven assets, given the economy's resilience.

Additionally, the Federal Reserve may reconsider its timeline for normalizing interest rates, potentially delaying the anticipated

first rate cut in September.

These factors have led to a sell-off in the gold market, with the precious metal experiencing downward pressure. The most active August gold contract declined by $34.10, or 1.42%, closing at $2,363.40, after opening just below $2,400 in Australia.

This movement reflects the market's response to the robust economic data and its potential impact on monetary policy.

As market participants digest the GDP report, attention now shifts to the upcoming Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation index for June, set to be released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. This report holds particular significance as the core PCE is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.

Economists anticipate a slight increase in the monthly core PCE, rising to 0.10% from May's 0.08%. However, on an annual basis, core PCE is expected to show a modest decrease in inflation, from 2.6% in May to 2.5% in June. The Federal Reserve of Cleveland's nowcasting model suggests an even lower figure of 2.4% year-over-year.

If tomorrow's PCE report shows that core inflation continues to cool, it should provide bullish tailwinds taking gold prices higher.

Gary Wagner

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

HOME

Economic Data Poised to Shape Fed Decision and Market Outlook

Leave a comment

Economic Data Poised to Shape Fed Decision and Market Outlook

As July draws to a close, investors and Federal Reserve officials alike are poised on the edge of their seats, eagerly awaiting two crucial economic reports that will shed light on the health of the U.S. economy. These reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, will provide pivotal information just days before the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) convenes for its July meeting.

On Thursday, July 25, the Commerce Department will unveil its first estimate of second-quarter GDP growth. Economists are forecasting an annualized growth rate of 2%, a significant uptick from the 1.4% recorded in the first quarter. This data will offer valuable insights into the economy's resilience and trajectory.

Following closely on its heels, the Bureau of Economic Analysis will release the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation index for June on Friday, July 26. This report is particularly significant as the core PCE is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation. Economists anticipate the core PCE, which excludes volatile food and energy

prices, to have risen by 0.10% on a monthly basis, a slight increase from May's 0.08%.

On an annual basis, both headline and core PCE are expected to show a modest decrease in inflation, from 2.6% in May to 2.5% in June.

These reports will play a crucial role in shaping the Fed's monetary policy decisions.

Currently, there's a 93.3% probability that the Fed will maintain its benchmark interest rate between 5.25% and 5.50% at the upcoming July meeting.

FedWatch Tool chart (PNG) for September

Investors are pricing in multiple scenarios for potential rate cuts in September. The CME's FedWatch tool indicates an 89.6% probability of a 0.25% rate cut, a 10.2% chance of a 0.50% cut, and a newly added 0.3% possibility of a 0.75% cut. This last scenario would bring the Fed funds rate down to between 4.50% and 4.75%, signaling a significant shift in monetary policy.

Daily gold chart

The anticipation of these reports and their potential impact on Fed decisions has already influenced financial markets. Gold futures, often seen as a hedge against economic uncertainty, have shown volatility. The most active August contract opened at $2,410.70, and reached a high of $2,433, before settling near the day's low at $2,397.

As market participants and policymakers alike await these critical economic indicators, the coming days promise to be pivotal for the U.S. economic outlook. The interplay between GDP growth, inflation trends, and the Fed's response will likely set the tone for financial markets in the months ahead.

Kitco Media

Gary Wagner

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

HOME

Solana Gains Momentum Defying All Odds SOL Set For Serious Gains

Leave a comment

Solana Gains Momentum Defying All Odds. SOL Set For Serious Gains

Many altcoins have experienced significant declines exceeding 40% since March, yet a few have shown remarkable strength. Solana stands out as one of these resilient altcoins, prompting speculation about its potential for a bullish surge once the cryptocurrency market reaches a parabolic phase. In this article, we will explore Solana's recent developments and discuss the possibility of SOL reaching new heights in the upcoming months. Whether you are already invested in SOL or contemplating adding it to your portfolio, this information is essential reading.

Significant developments have unfolded in the brief span of three months since the last Solana update. Notably, Solana surpassed Ethereum regarding stablecoin trading volumes, a milestone achieved during a mini-surge in altcoins in March, and Solana was a vital driver of this trend. Notably, SOL’s value peaked just before the FTX estate revealed its plan to offer 41 million SOL tokens to investors at a substantial 68% discount, amounting to approximately $7.6 billion.

FTX completed its over-the-counter (OTC) sales in May, but a crucial aspect to consider is that these deals are tied to a four-year vesting period. This means that when the buyers eventually sell their SOL, they will likely face minimal albeit steady selling pressure. 

Solana Memecoins, Payments 

Solana's surge in popularity can be attributed to the numerous memecoins created on its platform, particularly after the launch of Pump.fun memecoin generator in March. This memecoin hype caused a significant increase in transaction fees, which led to Solana surpassing Ethereum in terms of fees generated. However, the high volume of memecoin transactions caused congestion issues on Solana's blockchain, and despite not experiencing any actual outages, it was severely impacted, rendering the network nearly unusable.

Congestion problems first appeared in April and have since been a significant factor in the fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) surrounding SOL’s price. Solana's validators then implemented a technical upgrade to address the congestion problems, yet they continue to affect some users. Despite this, institutional investors remain unfazed and continue to include SOL in their crypto portfolios.

According to a report by CoinShares, 15% of institutional investors surveyed have raised their investments in SOL since the beginning of the year. Some of these investors likely obtained their exposure through FTX OTC sales. Another positive development for Solana occurred in April when it was announced that Stripe, a major payment processor, would enable USDC payments on multiple blockchains, including Solana.

The importance of Solana's self-positioning as a blockchain for crypto payments cannot be overstated. The announcement in May that PayPal had introduced its PYUSD stablecoin on Solana's platform is particularly noteworthy. In an open letter, PayPal explained its decision to build on Solana, highlighting the network's rapid finality and low fees. Additionally, they emphasized their intention to utilize PYUSD on Solana for commerce and payment purposes, citing its confidential transfer feature. This development could catapult Solana's value to unprecedented heights, with stablecoin payments emerging as a game-changing use case.

June was a whirlwind of activity for Solana. Following the news of its collaboration with PayPal, institutional investors significantly increased their investment in SOL. But they weren't the only ones eager to get in on the action—Circle, the issuer of USDC, also revealed plans to introduce enhanced stablecoin features on the Solana platform.

It’s worth mentioning that Solana is identified as the designated blockchain platform for USDC, as stated in a blog post by Circle. The current status of this arrangement is uncertain following the dissolution of the Center Consortium in August 2023, which was composed of Coinbase and Circle.

Solana Enhancements, ETFs, Regulations  

Solana has made significant iterations, including introducing Solana Actions and blockchain links (Blinks). These innovative tools enable seamless integration of blockchain transactions into various platforms, providing a user-friendly Web3 experience. With Solana Actions, users can efficiently execute on-chain transactions across different platforms, including websites, social media, and physical QR codes, allowing for enhanced flexibility and convenience.

With Solana Blinks, any action can be converted into a shareable link, enabling any website or platform that supports URLs to initiate a Solana transaction using a Solana wallet. This innovative feature seamlessly integrates on-chain transactions into various online platforms, including websites and social media, eliminating the need for users to navigate away from their current page. Thus, decentralized apps become more accessible, intuitive, and user-centric. Most would say that’s pretty remarkable! 

However, what’s not so remarkable is the concerning development of the CFTC, which is investigating Jump Crypto, a crucial entity within the Solana network. Jump Crypto has played a vital role in shaping Solana's infrastructure, having contributed to the creation of the Pith Network Oracle and the Wormhole bridge and collaborating on the development of Solana's Fire Dancer client. The potential implications of this investigation on Solana's growth are uncertain. They may hinge on the extent to which other companies within the ecosystem are involved in developing Fire Dancer.

Thankfully, the attention Solana received regarding the Jump Crypto CFTC investigation has been overshadowed by the announcement that VanEck had applied for a Solana ETF in June. Nevertheless, despite the recent greenlighting of similar ETFs for Ethereum, industry insiders believe it's unlikely that Solana will receive ETF approval anytime soon.

However, several analysts have pointed out that the approval of a SOL ETF may become more feasible if there is a change in the presidential administration following the November elections, as this could lead to a shift in leadership of the SEC. Despite being a challenging prospect, a growing consensus across party lines in Congress supports cryptocurrency. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas emphasized that the deadline for the SOL ETF approval is expected to be around March next year. Additionally, 21Shares submitted an ETF application after VanEck, and it is anticipated that other asset managers may also pursue similar ETF offerings, opening up exciting possibilities for SOL's future.

Predictions regarding the impact of a potential SOL ETF on the price of SOL vary widely, similar to the discussions around Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. While some forecasts suggest that the ETF may have minimal influence on SOL's price, others anticipate a significant surge, possibly exceeding its current value by nine times. One piece of evidence supporting the bullish outlook is the substantial premium at which Grayscale’s Solana Trust (GSOL) is trading in comparison to its net asset value, indicating institutional optimism.

According to CoinBureau's crypto specialists, SOL's optimal price ceiling during a strong market surge is estimated to be around $1200. Notably, this forecast aligns with the 9x growth predictions made by other industry experts, and those ETFs will likely launch when the crypto bull market reaches its most enthusiastic and optimistic peak, potentially leading to a significant surge in SOL's price.

SOL Price Outlook

SOL has been an outlier among altcoins, bucking the trend of recent price crashes. Instead, it has been trading within a tight range of $130 to $200 since late February. It is essential to highlight that a similar scenario is observed with Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other major altcoins. Typically, periods of consolidation are followed by significant breakouts either above or below the established range.


Source: CoinBureau.com

The chart above indicates that SOL could reach $300 if it breaks out upwards in the upcoming weeks or drop to $90 if it breaks out downwards in the same period. However, predicting the direction SOL will take is not determined by knowing its potential high or low points. To resolve this, we need to examine the factors influencing the new supply, such as selling pressure, and the factors driving demand, known as buying pressure.

The price is influenced by supply and demand dynamics. SOL's supply has reportedly risen by approximately 20 million units over the past three months. If all the newly supplied tokens were sold, SOL trading at an average price of $150 could have resulted in up to $3 billion worth of selling pressure in under four months. However, despite this significant supply increase, the demand for SOL seems even more extraordinary.

A few key statistics to consider:

  1. Notably, the Phantom wallet has surpassed 4 million downloads, marking a significant milestone. It was reported to have reached 3 million downloads just a few months prior, as highlighted in a recent Solana updates article, showcasing its rapid growth.
  2. DAP radar indicates that Solana has recorded over 5.5 million unique active wallets in just three days. This figure represents four times the 1.4 million wallets recorded in March. Additionally, DApp Radar has observed a 50% rise in active wallets within the past month.
  3. Solana's DeFi protocols have maintained a total value locked of approximately $4.7 billion, even as the price of SOL has dropped by 20 – 30% from its recent peaks. This is noteworthy as it indicates that fresh funds are flowing into Solana's DeFi protocols despite the decrease in price and the overall negative market sentiment.
  4. Furthermore, this trend is supported by data from Solscan's analytics page, which shows that the daily number of active Solana wallets has remained stable, hovering around the 900,000 mark.


Source: Solscan

Solana’s Roadmap And Catalysts That Could Boost SOL

Returning to SOL's current and future price action, its resilience can be attributed to the strong demand aspect of the supply-demand dynamic. The ongoing uptrend in the factors driving demand indicates a greater likelihood of SOL breaking higher. Put simply, there is a higher probability of SOL surging to $300 in the coming weeks than plummeting to $90, representing a significant 50% increase from its current value. However, it's important to note that a break above $200 is required for this scenario to play out, and that would need a catalyst to trigger it.

It just so happens that Solana has a slew of forthcoming milestones that could act as a growth catalyst. One of the most significant is Fire Dancer, a cutting-edge validator client generating much buzz. To provide a quick update, Fire Dancer is a game-changer because it has the potential to enhance Solana's speed significantly. A member of the Fire Dancer team shared that it will initially boost Solana's transaction capacity to 20,000 transactions per second (TPS) with plans to increase that number to a whopping 1 million TPS gradually.

Solana has achieved a peak speed of approximately 7,000 TPS to date. However, its maximum potential TPS is believed to be around 65,000. A Fire Dancer team member disclosed that the actual figure is nearer to 200,000 TPS. Nevertheless, exceeding the indicated TPS level brings about significant challenges, implying that scaling up to 1 million will necessitate additional modifications.


Source: Chainspect

Concerning the project schedule, Anatoly Yakovenko, the founder of Solana, has repeatedly stated in interviews that his team aims to launch the initial version before the September Breakpoint conference. The recent announcement of a bug bounty program for Fire Dancer suggests that the release will likely happen sooner rather than later. However, it’s worth noting that Jump Crypto, a company assisting with the development of Fire Dancer, is currently under investigation by the CFTC, which may impact the project's timeline.

Additionally, Solana has experienced a string of technical problems in the past. A team member from Solana's Jito validator client recently shared in an interview that Fire Dancer may also face some challenges. If Fire Dancer propels SOL above the $200 mark, the driving force behind its surge past $300 will likely be unveiled at Breakpoint.

Notably, previous conference announcements have significantly impacted the price. In addition to Fire Dancer and any other announcements to be made at the conference, Solana has two other important events coming up that could increase the value of SOL. One of these is creating a formal on-chain governance structure, a topic discussed in Solana’s forums. 

A well-defined governance framework can help Solana shift towards a more decentralized model, which may alleviate the regulatory pressure the SEC has exerted on it. In case you missed it, the SEC has identified SOL as an unregistered security in its legal actions against major cryptocurrency exchanges Binance and Coinbase.

A crucial upcoming development that could propel SOL's growth is the potential passage of stablecoin-related legislation in the US, although its timing is uncertain. Austin Federa, Solana Foundation's strategy head, recently asked crypto-friendly politician Bill Haggerty in an interview about this matter. Unfortunately, Haggerty's response suggested that the regulatory approval process would be prolonged due to ongoing Democratic opposition in the Senate despite widespread bipartisan support. This delay may be why major SOL stakeholders have been increasing their financial backing of Republican candidates.

The outlook for Solana over the next eight months is quite eventful. With Fire Dancer on the horizon, followed by the pivotal Breakpoint event, upcoming stablecoin regulatory developments (should the Republicans prevail in the November elections), and a potential ETF launch early next year (again, contingent on a Republican win), the path is paved for SOL to potentially reach the $1000 mark before the crypto market's bull run concludes. However, achieving this feat will hinge on various external factors beyond Solana's control falling into place.

Solana Challenges

One of the primary obstacles facing Solana is regulatory issues. Despite the optimism around stablecoin payments, the negative impact of the Jump Crypto CFTC investigation cannot be ignored. If the legal proceedings escalate to the point where Jump is forced to reduce its involvement in the cryptocurrency sector, it could have significant consequences. This scenario is not merely a matter of speculation.

The leader of Jump's crypto business resigned recently. If a major company within the Solana network reduces its operations, it could considerably delay the progress of Fire Dancer and similar projects. The Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) continued examination of Solana as a financial asset is expected to persist for the foreseeable future. Moreover, if the Democratic party gains control of Congress in the upcoming election, Solana can likely expect even more rigorous oversight.

Solana faces a second hurdle: stiff competition. With its impressive speed, it's easy to overlook that it's not the only high-performance Layer 1 blockchain on the scene. Rivals like Aptos and Sui, dubbed "Solana killers," are rapidly gaining traction in the Layer 1 space. Anatoly has publicly expressed concerns about these projects' threats, and for good reason. The technology behind Aptos and Sui has been years in the making, originating from Facebook's Libra project, underscoring the significant resources and expertise behind these emerging competitors.

In any case, Aptos and Sui possess a dual advantage, boasting cutting-edge technology and established connections. Furthermore, developers have found the Move programming language highly accessible and easy to work with. Although Aptos and Sui have not yet reached the same level of adoption as Solana, any technical glitches experienced by Solana could prompt a mass exodus, similar to how alternative platforms gained traction when Ethereum's high gas fees became prohibitively expensive.

This leads to the third hurdle, namely development complexity. Solana's developers, including Anatoly, often joke that building on Solana is as painful as "chewing on glass," making it precarious when rival platforms offer seemingly effortless coding experiences. A notable example is Soulend, formerly one of Solana's most prominent DeFi protocols, which has opted to deploy on Sui as Suilend. While this doesn't imply that Solend has completely abandoned Solana, it does suggest that developers and projects within the Solana ecosystem are actively exploring alternative blockchain options.

The Bottom Line 

Despite everything mentioned, Solana stands out as a leading cryptocurrency project, and its native coin, SOL, is expected to achieve significant growth in the near future. If Solana successfully tackles its obstacles and achieves its milestones, SOL could pleasantly surprise investors. Many experts in the crypto space share this sentiment, predicting that Solana will be among the top-performing large-cap cryptocurrencies. 

Some believe that SOL may even lead the pack regarding percentage gains, which could positively impact the altcoins within the Solana ecosystem. They may also witness substantial gains compared to their counterparts, potentially leading to impressive growth.

Many will know that Markethive’s token, Hivecoin (HVC), has been successfully integrated into the Solana blockchain. Solana stands out as the only blockchain capable of meeting the massive demands of Markethive's decentralized social market broadcasting network, which generates ever-increasing amounts of data and content. Other blockchains lack the technological capabilities to support an application of this scale and complexity.

Projects like Markethive that have pioneered a specific field and offer genuine utility to the broader community possess a unique advantage. Markethive belongs to the category of first movers and provides a wide range of practical applications, enabling it to gain a significant portion of the market. 

Leveraging Solana's technology, Markethive is well-positioned to become the premier choice for a decentralized, uncensored platform that integrates all aspects of social media, marketing, broadcasting, publishing, eCommerce, and business facilitation thereby creating a thriving entrepreneurial ecosystem for individuals from all backgrounds. 

This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

 


 

Editor and Chief Markethive: Deb Williams. (Australia) I thrive on progress and champion freedom of speech.  I embrace "Change" with a passion, and my purpose in life is to enlighten people to accept and move forward with enthusiasm. Find me at my Markethive Profile Page | My Twitter Account | and my LinkedIn Profile.

 

 

 

 

Tim Moseley

HOME

BlackRock’s Spot Bitcoin ETF

Leave a comment

BlackRock’s Spot Bitcoin ETF Pulls In Largest Daily Inflow Since Mid-March At $527 Million

By Brenda Ngari – July 24, 2024

BlackRock’s blockbuster spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) attracted $526.7 million in investor funds on July 22, logging its largest single day of inflows since March 13 as investors’ appetite for spot Bitcoin products continued to increase.

IBIT’s Record-Breaking Inflow

BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF drew $526.7 million in net inflows on Monday.

The July 22 inflows bring the total assets under management for the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF to 333,000 BTC, valued at around $22 billion at current prices.

IBIT recorded its highest single-day tally on March 18, when it drew in $848 million worth of BTC. The second-largest day on record happened on March 5, when $789 million was added to the fund, per data from UK-based investment firm FarSide Investors.

Overall, the 11 Bitcoin ETFs saw $533.57 million worth of inflows yesterday, with BlackRock’s IBIT, of course, accounting for a giant share of the cumulative inflows. IBIT’s inflow was followed by $23.73 million from Fidelity’s FBTC. Invesco and Galaxy’s BTCO recorded a $13.65 million inflow, while Franklin Templeton’s ETF pulled in $7.87 million.

In the meantime, VanEck’s HODL amassed $38.36 million. Grayscale’s GBTC, Ark Invest, and 21Shares’ ARKB registered zero inflows on Monday.

Bitcoin momentarily rose above $68,000 yesterday, hitting its highest level in more than a month. The bullish move happened amidst a dramatic improvement in the probability of pro-crypto Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump winning his reelection in November. There has also been speculation that Trump will announce a game-changing role for BTC in the U.S. financial system at the upcoming Bitcoin conference in Nashville, on July 27.

However, the bulls were unable to withstand the bullish momentum, paving the way for a fresh retracement. According to CoinGecko data, Bitcoin traded at around $66,661 at the time of writing, down 1.5% on a 24-hour basis.

The large inflows to BlackRock’s fund came on the same day that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved a batch of spot Ethereum ETFs for trading on U.S. stock exchanges.

DISCLAIMER The views expressed in the article are wholly those of the author and do not represent those of, nor should they be attributed to, ZyCrypto. This article is not meant to give financial advice. Please carry out your own research before investing in any of the various cryptocurrencies available.

The original article written by Brenda Ngari and posted on ZyCrypto.com.

Article reposted on Markethive by Jeffrey Sloe

** Loans, secure funding for business projects in the USA and around the world. Learn more about USA & International Financing at Commercial Funding International. **

Tim Moseley

HOME

What’s keeping silver down while gold hold above 2400?

Leave a comment

What’s keeping silver down while gold hold above $2,400?

Gold has been able to maintain a solid uptrend, building a new base with each rally; however, this momentum has not filtered through the entire sector as silver struggles to find its footing.

While gold is fighting for support at higher lows around $2,400 an ounce, silver is struggling around $29 an ounce. Silver's underperformance compared to the yellow metal has pushed the gold/silver ratio to its highest level in two months, back above 82 points.

The gold/silver ratio has jumped 14% from its multi-year lows seen in May. September silver futures last traded at $29.185 an ounce, down 0.45% on the day; meanwhile, August gold futures last traded at $2,405 an ounce, up 0.43% on the day.

Some analysts have said that gold is benefiting as a safe-haven asset because of rising geopolitical uncertainty, fueled by the U.S. elections in November.

“Silver usually follows the price movements of gold disproportionately. However, this has recently only applied to the downside. The previous upward movement in gold following the US inflation figures was more or less ignored by silver,” said Carsten Fritsch, Commodity Analyst at Commerzbank. “The relative weakness in silver is likely due to the weakness in base metals. This is because industrial applications are expected to account for almost 60% of silver demand this year.”

Commerzbank noted that base metals are struggling due to weakening demand in China; however, the analysts said that the selloff in base metals is overdone.

“On the one hand, the rate cuts by the central banks that have already been made, and those still to come in the coming months, should lead to an economic upturn, which should brighten the currently very negative market sentiment,” the analysts said. “On the other hand, the lower price level should put pressure on metal producers to curb production.”

Although silver continues to struggle, many investors are still not ready to give up on the precious metal.

In a recent interview with Kitco News, Robert Minter, Director Of Investment Strategy at abrdn, said that he expects silver to eventually outperform gold as the Federal Reserve starts to cut interest rates.

“Looking at the last three rate cycles, in 2000 gold went up 57%, but silver went up 65%; in 2006, gold went up 235%, but silver went up 318%; and in late 2018, gold went up 69%, but silver went up 101%,” he said. “Silver is the higher beta play.”

In a comment to Kitco News, Julia Cordova, Founder of Cordovatrading.com, said that while silver is struggling, she remains optimistic that it can regain its luster.

“Silver followed through on the confirmed weekly bearish divergence from last week, and the weekly close was outside of the possible pennant structure to the downside, but I think it is likely to outperform the yellow metal this week if it can regain $29.855. $28.41 is strong support," she said.

While silver has managed to push back above $29 an ounce, James Hyerczyk, Senior Technical Analyst at FXempire, said that the key support level to watch is around $28.50 an ounce.

“The short-term outlook for silver appears bearish. The metal’s dual nature as both a precious and industrial metal is currently working against it,” he said. “Traders should watch for a potential break below the $28.57 support level, which could trigger further downside. However, upcoming economic data, shifts in Fed policy expectations, or changes in industrial demand could provide volatility and potential turning points in the silver market.”

Kitco Media

Neils Christensen

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

The Artist that came out of the Winter