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Gold’s most active contract switches to June which are flirting with 2000

Gold’s most active contract switches to June which are flirting with $2000

Gold traded higher by low double digits today. The gains are the result of two factors and tomorrow’s PCE inflation report. Currently, the April 2023 contract of gold futures is trading up $14.20 and fixed at $1981.10. Concurrently, the June 2023 contract of gold futures is fixed at $1998 up $13.50. Today the June contract hit an intraday high of $2002.40.

The volume is diminishing in the April contract with an open interest of 88,563. The volume in the June contract has an open interest of 145,716. Traders are switching from the April contract to the June contract which is next in line to be the most active.

The dollar is currently trading lower by 0.43% and the dollar index is fixed at 101.86. The dollar has had a strong decline since October of last year when the index traded to an intraday high of 114. It seems that the days of extreme dollar strength have greatly diminished and we anticipate that the dollar index could break below 100.

Yields on government bonds are also lower which has greatly enhanced the demand for gold as a haven asset. Gains in U.S. equities did little to diminish demand for the haven assets and did not seem to have any detrimental effect on Gold pricing today.

As we spoke about yesterday, market participants who are anticipating a Fed pivot from raising rates to cutting rates have been largely disappointed. It is accepted by analysts and economists that the Federal Reserve will continue to either raise rates or pause rates at some point soon.

The CME’s FedWatch tool indicates that professional traders are almost split between anticipating a ¼% rate hike or a pause in interest rate hikes at the next FOMC meeting which begins around a month from today and concludes on May 3. According to the CME’s probability indicator, there is a 43.6% probability that the Federal Reserve will pause its hawkish monetary policy of raising rates at each FOMC meeting, and a 56.4% probability that the Fed will raise rates by ¼%. Yesterday the CME’s FedWatch tool indicated that there was a 67.4% probability that the Fed would pause rates with a 37.6% probability of a ¼% rate hike. This is a pretty dramatic shift in the last 24 hours.

Lastly, the preferred inflation indicator of the Federal Reserve, the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index) will be released tomorrow, March 31. Currently, forecasters believe that inflation levels will remain elevated. If the PCE does remain elevated as currently predicted it could strengthen the resolve of the Federal Reserve to raise rates rather than take a pause.

By

Gary Wagner

Contributing to kitco.com

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Why You Should Use Press Releases to Market Your Business

Why You Should Use Press Releases to Market Your Business

Press releases can be an effective tool for marketing your business for several reasons:

  1. Increased visibility: A well-written press release can help your business gain exposure and visibility to a wider audience. When a press release is picked up by news outlets, it can reach a large number of potential customers.

  2. Credibility: Press releases are often viewed as more credible than traditional advertising because they are written in a news format and are typically distributed by news organizations.

  3. Cost-effective: Press releases can be a cost-effective way to market your business, especially if you are a small business with limited marketing budget. Compared to other advertising methods, press releases are relatively inexpensive to produce and distribute.

  4. Brand building: Press releases can help build your brand by highlighting your company's achievements, products, and services. By consistently issuing press releases, you can establish your business as an authority in your industry and increase brand awareness.

  5. SEO benefits: Press releases can also be beneficial for search engine optimization (SEO). By including relevant keywords and links in your press release, you can improve your search engine rankings and drive more traffic to your website.

 

ecosystem for entrepreneurs

Overall, using press releases to market your business can help you reach a larger audience, build credibility, and increase brand awareness in a cost-effective way.

  1. Reach targeted audiences: Press releases can be targeted to specific audiences, such as industry publications or local news outlets. By tailoring your press release to a particular audience, you can increase the chances of your story being picked up and reaching the right people.

  2. Opportunity for media coverage: A well-written press release can lead to media coverage, which can further increase your business's visibility and credibility. Journalists often rely on press releases as a source of news, and if your story is interesting and relevant, it may be picked up by a news outlet.

  3. Crisis management: Press releases can be used to address and manage crisis situations. If your business is facing a negative event or controversy, a well-crafted press release can help you communicate your side of the story and control the narrative.

  4. Establish relationships with media contacts: Consistently issuing press releases can help you establish relationships with journalists and media outlets. By providing relevant and interesting stories, you can become a trusted source of news and increase the chances of your future press releases being picked up.

  5. Measurable results: Press releases can provide measurable results in terms of website traffic, media coverage, and brand awareness. By tracking the results of your press releases, you can determine the effectiveness of your marketing strategy and adjust it accordingly.

In summary, press releases can be a valuable tool for marketing your business. By increasing visibility, building credibility, reaching targeted audiences, and providing measurable results, press releases can help you establish your brand, communicate with your audience, and achieve your marketing goals.

 

ecosystem for entrepreneurs

Tim Moseley

What Is Content Marketing?

What Is Content Marketing?

by contentmarketinginstitute

marketing

Useful content should be at the core of your marketing

Traditional marketing is becoming less and less effective by the minute; as a forward-thinking marketer, you know there has to be a better way.

Enter content marketing.

Content marketing is a strategic marketing approach focused on creating and distributing valuable, relevant, and consistent content to attract and retain a clearly defined audience — and, ultimately, to drive profitable customer action.

Instead of pitching your products or services, you are providing truly relevant and useful content to your prospects and customers to help them solve their issues.

Content marketing is used by leading brands

Our annual research shows the vast majority of marketers are using content marketing. In fact, it is used by many prominent organizations in the world, including P&G, Microsoft, Cisco Systems, and John Deere. It’s also developed and executed by small businesses and one-person shops around the globe. Why? Because it works.

Here is just one example of content marketing in action:

Looking for definitions of the key terms used in content marketing? You’ll find them in our Essential Content Marketing Glossary.

Content marketing is good for your bottom line — and your customers

Specifically, there are four key reasons – and benefits – for enterprises to use content marketing:

  • Increased sales
  • Cost savings
  • Better customers who have more loyalty
  • Content as a profit center

Content is the present – and future – of marketing

Go back and read the content marketing definition one more time, but this time remove the relevant and valuable. That’s the difference between content marketing and the other informational garbage you get from companies trying to sell you “stuff.” Companies send us information all the time – it’s just that most of the time it’s not very relevant or valuable (can you say spam?). That’s what makes content marketing so intriguing in today’s environment of thousands of marketing messages per person per day.

Marketing is impossible without great content

Regardless of what type of marketing tactics you use, content marketing should be part of your process, not something separate. Quality content is part of all forms of marketing:

  • Social media marketing: Content marketing strategy comes before your social media strategy.
  • SEO: Search engines reward businesses that publish quality, consistent content.
  • PR: Successful PR strategies should address issues readers care about, not their business.
  • PPC: For PPC to work, you need great content behind it.
  • Inbound marketing: Content is key to driving inbound traffic and leads.
  • Content strategy: Content strategy is part of most content marketing strategies.

Content Marketing vs. Inbound Marketing

To be effective at content marketing, it is essential to have a documented content marketing strategy. Download our 16-page guide to learn what questions to ask and how to develop your strategy.

What if your customers looked forward to receiving your marketing? What if when they received it, via print, email, website, they spent 15, 30, 45 minutes with it? What if they anticipated it and shared it with their peers?

If you are intrigued and ready to learn more, we can help. Here are a few popular ways to dig in:

  • New to content marketing? Check out our getting started guide, where you’ll learn the definition of content marketing, as well as basic steps for putting a content marketing plan in place.
  • Need a content strategy? Read the CMI Content Marketing Framework, which outlines the essential building blocks for a successful content marketing program.
  • Looking for some content marketing examples? Download this e-book: 40 Content Marketing Examples.
  • Are you in marketing leadership? Subscribe to our free magazine, Chief Content Officer, to stay on top of the latest industry trends.
  • Need advice specific to your organization? Contact our consulting group, led by strategist Robert Rose, to find out how they can help you meet your content marketing challenges.

If at any time you have questions about content marketing, don’t hesitate to reach out and ask us.

Tim Moseley

Gold remains solidly bullish even with today’s modest price decline

Gold remains solidly bullish even with today’s modest price decline

Although gold prices had a modest decline in trading today, the overall fundamental environment that had caused gold pricing to trade above $2000 last week remains solidly entrenched. Today’s modest single-digit decline in gold resulted from market participants once again focusing on risk-on assets with U.S. equities rising. Specifically, a major rise of 1.97% in the NASDAQ composite indicates solid interest in the tech-heavy index. The Dow Jones industrial average gained 1% and the S&P 500 increased by 1.42%.

Positive market sentiment for US equities coupled with minor dollar strength could have easily tipped traders to take profits on long positions in gold. As of 5:25 PM EST gold futures basis the most active April contract is down $7.30 or 0.37% and fixed at $1966.20.



However, June gold futures which will be the next most active contract is currently fixed at $1983.10 booking the same dollar decline of $7.30 but are priced almost $20 above the April contract. The large differential of almost $20 between the two contract months clearly illustrates market sentiment is exceedingly bullish long-term for gold.

Market participants who were anticipating a Fed pivot from raising rates to cutting rates have been largely disappointed. However, it must be noted that the CME’s FedWatch tool indicates that professional traders are anticipating a pause in rate hikes in 34 days when the Federal Reserve concludes its May FOMC meeting on May 3, 2023. According to the CME’s probability indicator, there is a 67.4% probability that the Federal Reserve will not raise rates and a 37.6% probability that they will implement another 25 bps rate hike.

Lastly, the preferred inflation indicator of the Federal Reserve, the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index) will be released this Friday, March 31. Currently forecasts believe that inflation levels will remain elevated. If the PCE remains elevated as currently predicted it could pressure the Federal Reserve to raise rates rather than take a pause at the May FOMC meeting.

By

Gary Wagner

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Understanding Your Options: Is Investing in Bitcoin or the Bank a Wise Financial Move?

Understanding Your Options: Is Investing in Bitcoin or the Bank a Wise Financial Move?

 

Many people are concerned that the recent banking crisis may have precipitated a global financial crisis.

In fewer than a week, three banks have failed. In an effort to avert more panic, U.S. government authorities have stepped up to backstop losses. In addition to the possibility that other banks will fail, there are legitimate questions about whether it was the proper decision to bail out two poorly run institutions with serious irregularities while allowing the third to fail.

So, should you withdraw funds from your bank and hide them under your mattress or invest in cryptocurrency?

Crypto and traditional banking are two very different options for storing your money. While banks are a familiar and trusted option, crypto, such as bitcoin, is a decentralized and volatile digital currency. So, the question arises, should you keep your money in Bitcoin or a bank?

This article will help you consider the options of either keeping your savings balances in cryptocurrency or in the bank. We will start by looking at what Bitcoin is before moving on to why people choose to use it as an investment vehicle and how they can use it safely and securely.

Image source: https://bitcoinbriefly.com/21-million-bitcoin/

Why was Bitcoin Created?

As many have already stated, the early financial crisis of 2008, known as the great recession, gave rise to the creation of bitcoin. The very first block of the blockchain came with a message concerning bailouts for banks. In contrast to the tightly entwined public and private banking sectors, it was created to remove third parties as an intermediary from the internet money system by making users accountable for their own keys.

The 2008 financial crisis was a significant event that shook the global economy, causing widespread unemployment, foreclosures, and bank failures. It highlighted the shortcomings of the traditional financial system and the need for alternative systems that could provide excellent stability, security, and decentralization.

Bitcoin was created as a decentralized digital currency that operates outside the traditional financial system. Its underlying technology, blockchain, allows for peer-to-peer transactions without intermediaries like banks. This gives users more control over their money and eliminates many fees and delays associated with traditional banking.

While Bitcoin's creation was not a direct response to the financial crisis, it is often seen as a product of the growing dissatisfaction with the traditional financial system and the need for more transparent and secure alternatives. Bitcoin was initially created as a response to the flaws of the traditional financial system. Still, it has since grown into a global phenomenon with unique characteristics and potential benefits.

One of the key advantages of Bitcoin is its decentralized nature. Unlike traditional currencies, which governments and financial institutions control, Bitcoin is not controlled by any central authority. This makes it more resistant to government or institutional manipulation and potentially more secure from hacking or other types of cyber attacks.

Another advantage of Bitcoin is its potential for anonymity. While Bitcoin transactions are not completely anonymous, they offer privacy that is not always available with traditional banking. This can be particularly useful for individuals concerned about their financial privacy or living in countries with strict financial regulations, such as China or Russia.

Bitcoin's potential as a global currency has also been touted as a potential benefit. With Bitcoin, sending and receiving payments across borders is possible without currency conversions or other barriers. This could make it easier for people to conduct business internationally and help level the playing field for small businesses and individuals.

While Bitcoin was not explicitly created as a response to the 2008 financial crisis, it is viewed by many as a potential solution to some of the problems highlighted by the crisis. Its decentralized nature, the potential for anonymity, and global accessibility make it a unique and potentially valuable addition to the financial landscape.

Are We on the Verge of Another Global Financial Crisis?

A systemic banking crisis can be extremely damaging. They tend to push the affected economies into deep recessions and sharp current account reversals. Some situations were contagious and quickly spread to other countries with no apparent weaknesses.

The many causes of banking crises include unsustainable macroeconomic policies (including large current account deficits and unsustainable government debt), excessive credit booms, large capital inflows and weak balance sheets, and various political and economic requirements resulting in political paralysis.

In September 2008, a global financial crisis caused by the collapse of housing markets led to a worldwide recession. The United States has recovered, but the rest of the world is still in recovery. This global financial crisis is the second largest in history and is predicted to be even bigger than the first.

Experts are worried that the United States is heading towards another global financial crisis, but it will be much worse this time. Many factors lead experts to believe that it will be more challenging to recover from the economic recession this time. Some of the reasons are increased global debt, over-leveraged banks, low economic growth, and rising oil prices.

There are concerns that the recent bank collapse and other economic crises could lead to another global financial crisis, as noted by several news articles. According to a report by The Guardian, the global banking system is reeling from a series of shocks over the past week, prompted by the collapse of California's Silicon Valley Bank. This has stoked fears that this is the start of a more severe crisis.

Similarly, an article by ABC News states that the potential next phase is a global credit crunch, which could lead to another worldwide financial crisis. However, regulators and central banks are pulling out all stops to prevent that.

In addition, an article by The New York Times notes that the banking crisis hangs over the economy, rekindling recession fears, and even optimistic forecasters on Wall Street in recent months have said that the chances of a recession had risen ten percentage points to 35 percent.

However, it is important to note that the situation is still developing, and it is difficult to predict with certainty whether or not we are on the verge of another global financial crisis. It will depend on the effectiveness of the measures taken by regulators and central banks to mitigate the risks and prevent the crisis from spreading.
 

Which is Better: Bitcoin or Bank?

Money saved in a bank account is typically considered a safer option for storing the value as it is backed by government guarantees, such as deposit insurance, which can protect a certain amount of funds in case of a bank failure. Bank accounts also offer the convenience of easy access to funds, as well as potential interest earnings. However, these are currently quite low in many countries due to low-interest rates.

On the other hand, Bitcoin has shown the potential for significant gains over the long term, and it also carries the risk of substantial losses, particularly in the short term. Bitcoin is not backed by government guarantees, which means there is no protection for investors if the value of Bitcoin were to decline sharply or if their Bitcoin were to be lost or stolen.

Bitcoin's status as a safe haven asset during times of crisis varies depending on the situation. Cryptocurrencies acted as a store of value during the COVID-19 crisis and as a safe haven. Also, before the pandemic, Bitcoin served as a safe haven, a hedge, and a diversifier versus a range of international currencies.

However, Bitcoin's volatility remains a concern as it can experience massive price swings, making it a risky store of value asset in the short term. On the other hand, money saved in the bank may provide stability and security, but its value may be affected by inflation, changes in interest rates, and other economic factors.

Whether to use Bitcoin or money saved in the bank as a safer store of value is subjective and depends on an individual's risk tolerance and investment goals. However, it's important to note that Bitcoin's status as a safe haven asset during times of crisis is not guaranteed and may vary depending on the situation. It's essential to consider each option's potential benefits and risks carefully and to seek the advice of a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Bottom Line

Today's bank failures are incredibly unusual and would likely result in a great deal of anxiety, as was the case with the collapse of Silvergate Bank, a free-floating entity cut off from the rest of the economy. How distinct can private and public interests truly be when SVB and Signature participated in both the ups and downs of the Fed policy-created tsunami of cheap money? 

Considering the previous and recent economic upheaval, should you retain your money in a bank if the U.S. government is formally bailing out banks, or should you seek a better alternative?

Ultimately, the decision of where to keep your money depends on your individual circumstances, risk tolerance, and financial goals. It may be helpful to speak with a financial advisor or conduct additional research to make an informed decision.

 

 

About: Prince Ibenne. (Nigeria) Rapid and sustainable human growth is my passion, and getting a life-changing opportunity into the hands of people is my calling. Empowering entrepreneurs provides me with enormous gratification. Find me at my Markethive Profile Page | My Twitter Account | and my LinkedIn Profile.

 

 

 

 

Tim Moseley

Gold silver gain on bargain hunting bullish outside mkts

Gold, silver gain on bargain hunting, bullish outside mkts

Get all the essential market news and expert opinions in one place with our daily newsletter. Receive a comprehensive recap of the day's top stories directly to your inbox. Sign up here!

(Kitco News) – Gold and silver prices are up in midday U.S. trading Tuesday on some perceived bargain hunting, and amid a lower U.S. dollar index and higher crude oil prices on this day. April gold was last up $15.00 at $1,968.70 and May silver was up $0.21 at $23.355.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower and continuing to trend lower on the daily bar chart. Nymex crude oil futures prices are up and trading around $73.50 a barrel. Oil prices have made a good rebound from the March low and bulls are working on a price uptrend on the daily bar chart. Meantime, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.558%.

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are mixed at midday. The U.S. and European banking crisis appears to have stabilized, at least for now. That’s allowing risk appetite to creep back into the marketplace. Continued easing worries about the banking crisis, and a continued uptick in risk appetite, would very likely cap gains in gold and silver prices for the near term.

  Fed's 'Emergency rate cut' by June to precede 'controlled implosion' of banking sector, only 6 banks left as CBDCs rolled out by 2025 – Edward Dowd

It’s a busy week for U.S. economic data, but the highlight is Friday’s personal consumption and expenditures (PCE) data that will provide fresh clues on inflation and whether the U.S. economy is headed toward recession. It’s been said the PCE data is a favorite gauge of inflation for the Federal Reserve.

Technically, April gold futures bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are still in an uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the March high of $2,014.90. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,900.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $1,984.00 and then at $2,000.00. First support is seen at this week’s low of $1,945.00 and then at last week’s low of $1,936.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5

]

May silver futures bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a steep uptrend on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $24.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $22.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $23.485 and then at last week’s high of $23.705. Next support is seen at today’s low of $22.96 and then at $22.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

May N.Y. copper closed up 105 points at 408.90 cents today. Prices closed near mid-range today. The copper bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the January high of 435.90 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the March low of 382.20 cents. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of 414.85 cents and then at the March high of 417.85 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 402.35 cents and then at 400.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

By

Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Gold prices soften as concern subsides over banking meltdown

Gold prices soften as concern subsides over banking meltdown

For the second consecutive day gold futures have traded lower. Today gold traded to an intraday low of $1945 and a high of $1984 after opening at $1982.60. As of 4:15 PM EST gold futures basis the most active April contract is currently fixed at $1958.50 after factoring in today’s decline of $25.30 or -1.28%.

Today’s decline of approximately 1.3% was the direct result of traders bidding the precious yellow metal lower, with dollar weakness providing tailwinds that softened the decline today. Dollar weakness also provided some relief for spot gold which is currently fixed at $1956.90 after factoring in a decline today of $21.30. However, before factoring in dollar weakness spot gold was trading lower by $26.60 with dollar weakness adding back $5.30 per ounce.

The primary factor that had increased demand for the precious metal diminished over the weekend. The concern was centered around a banking crisis involving Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank of New York spreading to other banks.

Over the weekend it was announced that First Citizens Bank reached a deal to purchase the Silicon Valley Bank in Santa Clara. The SVB was closed by California authorities on Friday, March 10. On Sunday, March 26 the FDIC (Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation) announced that the First Citizens Bank & Trust Company of Raleigh, North Carolina had completed a purchase agreement from deposits and loans of the Silicon Valley Bridge Bank.

The purchase of SVB greatly alleviated the fears that the banking meltdown would have a contagion effect leading to more banks becoming insolvent. This diminished the demand for safe-haven assets as investors reallocated funds from haven assets to risk-on assets such as U.S. equities. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.60%, and the S&P 500 gained 0.16%. However, bearish market sentiment continues in the tech-heavy NASDAQ composite which declined by 0.47%.

The two-day decline witnessed in gold could be short-lived as market participants focus on statements made by the Federal Reserve last week. For the first time since the Federal Reserve began raising rates, it indicated that its forward monetary policy is about to begin pausing interest rate hikes. Currently, it is anticipated that the Fed will initiate one more ¼% rate hike in May and then begin to pause rate hikes and assess the long-term impacts on inflation from their flurry of rate hikes which began in March 2022.

The Fed continues to maintain that its current terminal rate will remain elevated but a pause in hikes is the next best thing to a rate cut. Rate cuts were something which Chairman Powell emphatically stated is not something the Federal Reserve will implement without substantial data confirming that inflation is on a sustained downward trajectory towards their 2% target.

Gary S. Wagner

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Goldman Sachs sees gold rallying over 2000 in 12 months as banking crisis spurs safe-haven demand

  

Goldman Sachs sees gold rallying over $2,000 in 12 months as banking crisis spurs safe-haven demand

The biggest banking crisis since 2008 has created a surge in safe-haven demand for gold and Goldman Sachs is looking for prices to remain above $2,000 an ounce 12 months from now.

Wednesday, commodity analysts at Goldman Sachs updated their 12-month gold forecast, saying that they see prices rallying to $2,050 an ounce, up from their previous one-year target of $1,950 an ounce. At the same time, the investment bank reiterated its bullish outlook for the commodity sector, seeing a broad-based gain of 28%.

The bullish outlook for gold comes as the precious metal sees some profit-taking heading into the weekend after retesting resistance at $2,000 an ounce. April gold futures last traded at $1980.20 an ounce, relatively flat from last week.

Looking past the short-term technical selling, the analysts noted that gold remains the best safe-haven hedge against financial risks. They also added that an end to the Federal Reserve's tightening cycle, leading to a weaker U.S. dollar, will continue supporting the precious metal.

According to Goldman Sachs, investors will once again start moving capital into gold-backed exchange-traded products.

"We believe the market will be well supported not only by ETF inflows once Fed fund rates have peaked but by a stronger 'Wealth' effect from the East as the USD depreciates into year-end on yield compression and EM GDP grows strongly on China reopening effects,” the bank said in the note.

Since the start of the banking crisis two weeks ago with the collapse of two major regional U.S. banks, about 24 tonnes of gold has flowed into the world's biggest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD).

According to data from the World Gold Council, global gold ETFs saw inflows of 18 tonnes in the first few days of the banking crisis, ending ten consecutive weeks of outflows.

 Gold bulls are in the driver's seat; market sentiment looking for prices to hold around $2,000

Although gold is expected to grind higher from current levels, Goldman analysts said it would take a significant shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy to push prices above $2,100 an ounce.

Goldman Sachs economists are not expecting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this year, in line with comments from the head of the central bank Jerome Powell.

However, market expectations paint a different picture. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the market is pricing in a rate cut by June and sees the potential for four rate cuts before the end of the year.

By

Neils Christensen

464For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Gold’s bullish uptrend won’t be reversed by a ‘mean washout’ – analysts

Gold's bullish uptrend won't be reversed by a 'mean washout' – analysts

The gold market retreated Friday as better-than-expected U.S. data and hawkish comments from St. Louis Fed President James Bullard weighed on prices. But analysts don't see the gold's bullish uptrend reversing soon.

Gold was down around $15 on the day after hitting a high of $2,006.50 earlier in the session. After seeing its best gains in three years last week, gold continues its move higher, testing the $2,000 an ounce level a few times this week. At the time of writing, April Comex gold futures were trading at $1,980.50, down 0.77% on the day.

Gold began to decline Friday after the preliminary U.S. manufacturing and service-sector sentiment data beat expectations for March. The flash U.S. manufacturing Purchasing Managers (PMI) Index advanced to 49.3, marking a five-month high. And the service sector saw the PMI reading jump to 53.8 in March, marking an 11-month high.

Also, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said Friday that as the banking sector stress eases, the Federal Reserve will have to raise rates higher.

Bullard remained hawkish "in reaction to the stronger economic news and also on the assumption that the financial stress abates in the weeks and months ahead."

He raised his terminal rate estimate to a 5.50%-5.75% range, while his colleagues maintained their target primarily between 5.00% and 5.25%.

But the bond market is signaling that a Fed pivot is coming, RJO Futures senior market strategist Frank Cholly told Kitco News.

"The bond market is telling us we will get a rate cut. That is favorable for gold. We see a correction after a big rally. But that is not enough to change the trend," Cholly said. "It could be as early as June that we see the Fed start to cut."

In the short term, analysts do not rule out a reversal in gold after its quick gains. But the overall trend will remain intact, taking prices above $2,000 an ounce.

"The immediate stretch might be at risk of exhaustion here. But the trade is constructive as long as gold stays above $1,850. Even if we get a mean washout, the downtrend is broken, and I am looking for an uptrend resumption," Forex.com's senior technical strategist Michael Boutros told Kitco News.

The levels to watch on the way up are $2,034, the record-high weekly close, and then $2,075. That would open the door to $2,150, Boutros said, adding that gold spent very little time above $2,000 an ounce in 2020 or 2022.

The banking crisis, combined with the Fed rate hike expectations easing, is creating "true risk-off haven flows," the technical strategist added.

The biggest variable for gold going forward is the contagion risk in the banking sector. And the central question is whether Washington is willing to backstop all depositors. On that front, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Fed Chair Jerome Powell have been sending mixed signals.

"We are not done with the banking problem. There is a flight of capital from regional banks, and we might see structural failure. How deep it stretches is the problem. There is also the moral hazard of backstopping all depositors. Can't go case-by-case basis," Boutros said. "With regards to gold, it is a constructive move."

Cholly sees gold well supported at $1,950-$1,975 an ounce.

The banking crisis is doing the work for the Fed, and there could be a credit crunch coming, Cholly warned.

"It will get harder for people to borrow money. That is going to slow things down. We will see things slow down without the Fed having to raise rates further. Banks will be tighter and fussier about lending money," he said.

 

Next week's data

Tuesday: U.S. CB consumer confidence

Wednesday: U.S. pending home sales

Thursday: U.S. jobless claims, GDP Q4

Friday: U.S. PCE price index

By

Anna Golubova

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

The Big Reveal Of The Twitter Files MSM Ignores Time To Be Awakened

The Big Reveal Of The Twitter Files MSM Ignores. Time To Be Awakened

A particular comment by stalwart Elon Musk went viral after he orchestrated the first Twitter files release in December 2022. “Almost every conspiracy theory that people had about Twitter turned out to be true.” Since that time, 19 more Twitter Files have been released. They've revealed a concerning relationship between the government and big tech, which will likely evolve as online censorship laws come into force.

This article outlines the Twitter Files, including why they're being released, who's been publishing them, what they say, and how the powers that be will push back. As many will know, Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk finalized his acquisition of Twitter in October 2022. In the months preceding the acquisition, Elon promised to bring more transparency to the social media platform to increase trust. In November, he delivered. He tweeted,

 

Image source: Twitter

In December 2022, American author and journalist Matt Taibbi released the first set of Twitter files in a thread. Naturally, the first set of Twitter Files explained what they are precisely and discussed the now infamous suppression of a story about President Joe Biden's son Hunter Biden leading up to the 2020 election. 

What Are The Twitter Files?

So, what are the Twitter Files, and why are they significant? In short, the Twitter Files are a collection of internal documents that prove that the US government was working closely with the social media platform to censor certain information. It’s significant because free speech is protected under the First Amendment in the United States. 

To be clear, Twitter is a private company, meaning it is not obligated to abide by the First Amendment. However, the US government is obliged to comply with the First Amendment. According to some constitutional experts, its use of Twitter to suppress free speech could therefore be illegal. 

Another reason the Twitter files are significant is that they suggest the US government could be censoring other social media platforms. This article explains the collaboration of 3 letter agencies with legacy social media and evidence to support this hypothesis; the Twitter Files add to the pile. 

As previously mentioned, there have been 19 sets of Twitter files so far, and they've been posted as lengthy threads by multiple renowned journalists. Besides Matt Taibbi, the list includes Michael Shellenburger, Bari Weiss, Lee Fang, David Zweig, and Alex Berenson, all well respected. But of course, they've all since become substantive enemies of the state for being involved in this. 


Image source: The Epoch Times

It's important to point out that the Twitter files aren't just sitting there waiting to be reported. In an interview with Kim Iverson, David Zweig revealed that even though they have unrestricted access to Twitter data, thanks to Elon, it's been challenging to dig up the information they're looking for. 

This is partly because Twitter systems weren't designed to be searched. In other words, it’s like they have access to the entire internet but no search engine to search through it. The difficulty is also due to the obstruction and sabotage that the journalists faced from Twitter employees, most of whom have since been fired.

The silver lining is that it's been easy for them to know when they found something. Matt Taibbi gave an amusing example in an interview with Joe Rogan: A document containing phone numbers for a secret social media censorship group chat for big tech companies was simply and openly titled ‘Secret Phone Numbers.’ So with that information in mind, we’ll look at what they found. 

Incidentally, both political parties were involved in social media censorship. As was almost every single branch of the US government, particularly the intelligence agencies. The difference is that Republican-affiliated entities sought to suppress the discussion of specific subjects, namely panic buying at grocery stores at the start of the pandemic. By contrast, Democrat-affiliated entities demanded the suppression of particular people, specific tweets, and retweets.

 

Image source: Running List of All Twitter Files Releases – Jordan Sather
 

Part One Of The Twitter Files

The first set of Twitter Files discussed the suppression of a story about Hunter Biden. The short story about Hunter Biden is that he left a laptop at a computer repair shop containing information that suggested that his dad, “the big guy,” was doing shady stuff. 

The New York Post published the story in October 2020, shortly before the November 2020 election. Twitter and other social media outlets suppressed the story at the request of Democrat interests. Given the testimony of former Twitter executives, many Republicans have since argued that the 2020 election outcome would have been different were it not for the censorship of the story.

Part Two Of The Twitter Files

The second set of Twitter Files was published a few days later. The topic was Twitter's secret blacklisting policy, also known as Shadow Banning. For context, Twitter executives had denied that the platform shadowbanned users for years and would never do so for political purposes. 

However, the second set of Twitter Files confirmed that Twitter had a shadowbanning system designed to limit the reach of specified users. This suppression was almost always political. It also went into overdrive during the pandemic, with users skeptical of pandemic restrictions being targeted.

Parts 3, 4, and 5 Of The Twitter Files

The third set of Twitter Files was published the same day as the second. The topic was the controversial removal of the then-US President, Donald Trump, from the platform. This was also the topic for the fourth and fifth sets of Twitter files, all outlined here for the sake of simplicity.

To begin with, Twitter's top staff worked tirelessly to suppress Trump's reach on Twitter. Following the contentious events of January 6th, 2020, Twitter's team devised a new content policy to justify banning Trump. The files seemed to imply that they were pushed to do this by Democrat interests. 

This undertaking involved axing Twitter's Public Interest policy, which stated that information should remain on the platform, no matter how controversial, so long as it's not illegal. The Public Interest policy was replaced by a new approach called the ‘Glorification of Violence' policy, with Trump as the first offender

As explained by Matt in the interview with Joe Rogan, mentioned above, the glorification of violence policy includes an assessment of who follows a person on Twitter to determine whether that person incited violence. So, if even a single account that’s “deemed violent” follows Trump, it means that person was violating the policy. 

Some may think the new policy is justified, but if you take a moment to consider that almost every account on Twitter probably has at least one follower that Twitter could consider to be violent. In other words, the policy could be applied to whichever accounts Twitter wants to eliminate, which is brutal. 

Part Six Of The Twitter Files

The sixth set of Twitter Files is even more formidable. They revealed that Twitter was in such frequent contact with the FBI that the social media company could be considered a subsidiary of the intelligence agency. 

The FBI provided hundreds of takedown requests, and Twitter always complied. Also, the number of former FBI agents working at Twitter was so large that they'd created their own Slack channel. For reference, Slack is a platform used to coordinate workplace communications. 

Much of the sensitive info in the Twitter files came from these Slack discussions. These files also revealed that Twitter complied with censorship requests from NGOs. Matt concluded, “What most people think of as the Deep State is really a tangled collaboration of state agencies, private contractors, and NGOs. The lines become so blurred as to be meaningless.”

Part Seven Of The Twitter Files

The seventh set of Twitter Files returns to the topic of the suppressed Hunter Biden story. This is because the independent journalist discovered that both Twitter and the FBI were aware that the contents of the laptop were likely genuine but insisted that it was Russian disinformation. 

Part Eight Of The Twitter Files

The eighth set of Twitter Files was about another formidable subject, and that's how Twitter aided and abetted the US military to execute propaganda operations overseas. They shape narratives about foreign conflicts that put the US in a positive light and even use fake accounts with AI-generated deep fakes to this end.

In August 2022, a Stanford Internet Observatory report.pdf exposed a U.S. military covert propaganda network on Facebook, Telegram, Twitter & other apps using fake news portals and deep fake images and memes against U.S. foreign adversaries. The U.S. propaganda network relentlessly pushed narratives against Russia, China, and other foreign countries. They accused Iran of "threatening Iraq’s water security and flooding the country with crystal meth" and of harvesting the organs of Afghan refugees.

Part 9 Of The Twitter Files

The ninth set of Twitter Files was about Twitter's relationship with all the other US government agencies. This set of Twitter Files seems to have responded to the FBI's response to the previous set of files which the feds predictably claimed were all a “conspiracy theory to discredit the agency.”

Funnily enough, the Twitter Files found that the FBI acted as a concierge between Twitter and other US government agencies, allowing them all to submit content takedown requests. This included censorship of discussions about atrocities related to the war in Ukraine.

The long list of US Government agencies included local police departments, which had the power to search and censor users and posts. These privileges were granted by all the big tech companies involved in online censorship meetings, including Facebook, Microsoft, and even Reddit. 

Part Ten Of The Twitter Files

The 10th set of Twitter Files is about the very contentious topic of the pandemic. These Twitter files found that accurate information was suppressed and censored if it went against the official pandemic narrative. The instructions for this suppression came directly from the White House, both under former President Trump and current President Biden. Whereas the Trump White House was concerned about panic-buying, the Biden White House asked Twitter to censor specific people and posts. 

That list of people included former New York Times journalist Alex Berenson and Dr. Martin Kulldorff, an epidemiologist at Harvard Medical School. The posts included those that cited official government statistics or statements about the pandemic, which discredited the official narrative, what they call ‘the science.’ 

Part 11 Of The Twitter Files

The 11th set of Twitter Files explains the history of the social media platform’s partnership with intelligence agencies. This set of files suggests this collusion only began in 2017 when Democrat interests insisted that Trump had won the 2016 election due to Russian interference. 

According to the Twitter files, there appears to be no evidence of significant Russian interference in the 2016 election. On the contrary, Russian interference was used by US government agencies as an excuse to infiltrate big tech companies further and dictate how information is shared online.

Part 12 Of The Twitter Files

This ties into the 12th set of Twitter Files, suggesting that Twitter was coerced into complying with the US government. Twitter was struggling with the problem of public and private agencies bypassing them and going straight to the media with lists of so-called suspicious accounts. They would have politicians push for anti-big tech legislation and leak information to the press whenever Twitter refused to comply with their censorship requests. 

This combination of private and public pressure intensified when the pandemic began. US government agencies pressured Twitter to suppress information about the pandemic's origins. The US government has since pulled a complete 180° with the FBI confirming original suspicions were indeed correct.

Part 13 Of The Twitter Files

The 13th set of Twitter Files conducted by Alex Berenson discusses how Twitter suppressed the debate about treatments for Covid, particularly the tweet from Dr. Brett Giroir claiming that natural immunity was superior to vaccine immunity was "corrosive" and might "go viral." After being pressured by a top Pfizer board member, Dr. Scott Gottlieb, Twitter censored content challenging the narrative, saying it might hurt sales of Pfizer’s mRNA vaccines which his company directly benefits from. 

He also went after another tweet about Covid’s low risk to children. Pfizer would soon win the okay for its mRNA shots for children, so keeping parents scared was crucial. Gottlieb claimed on Twitter and CNBC that he was not trying to suppress debate on mRNA jabs. These files prove that Gottlieb, a board member at a company that has made $70 billion on the shots, did just that.

Part 14 Of The Twitter Files

The 14th set of Twitter Files was released in mid-January. They reveal how trending hashtags on Twitter that went against popular narratives were attributed to Russian bots and suppressed despite Twitter having zero internal evidence of Russian involvement. Twitter warned politicians and media they not only lacked evidence but had evidence the accounts weren’t Russian but were roundly ignored.

You may remember that Russian bots were blamed for almost everything a few years ago. These Twitter Files recount how this baseless claim became overblown to the point that mainstream media alleged Russian bots controlled both sides of the narrative.

The Russians were also blamed for #ReleaseThe Memo, #Schumer Shutdown, #Parkland Shooting, and even #Gun Control Now  to “widen the divide,” according to the New York
Times. The Russiagate scandal was built on the cowardly dishonesty of politicians and reporters, who ignored the absence of data to fictional scare headlines for years.

Part 15 & 16 Of The Twitter Files

This relates to the 15th set of Twitter Files, which reveals that intelligence agencies started alleging Russian bots were running large republican-leaning accounts. These allegations were so extreme that even Twitter's censorship policy teams pushed back against suppression requests. 

In mid-February, Matt Taibbi published the 16th set of Twitter Files and provided an excellent summary of the previous 15 files. 

“The Twitter files have revealed a lot: thousands of moderation requests from every corner of government, Feds mistaking both conservatives and leftists for fictional Russians, even Twitter deciding on paper to cede moderation authority to the US intelligence community.” 

Matt also laments that there's been next to no mainstream media coverage of the Twitter Files except that Donald Trump had requested Twitter take down a spiteful tweet. Matt then highlighted a few more egregious cases of such requests to see if the media would cover them. All he got was crickets.

Part 17 Of The Twitter Files

The 17th set of Twitter files was published in early February 2023 and is relative to a US Government agency, The Global Engagement Center (GEC), created in Obama’s last year of presidency. The GEC is an interagency group whose initial partners include the FBI, DHS, NSA, CIA, DARPA, and Special Operations Command (SOCOM), et al. 

They reveal that it used Twitter for geo-political purposes, with agencies instructing the social media platform to suppress and censor posts and accounts assumed to be affiliated with foreign intelligence. Similarly to the obsession with Russian bots, hundreds, if not thousands, of Twitter accounts were incorrectly labeled as associated with Indian or Chinese intelligence.

The Twitter Files thread reveals that the bombshell reports have managed to attract the attention of US politicians, who summoned two journalists, Matt Taibi and Michael Shellenburger, to a hearing on March 9th, 2023.

Part 18 Of The Twitter Files

The 18th set of Twitter Files relates to the Censorship Industrial Complex, which demonstrates that Twitter was a partner to the government. Along with other tech firms, it held a regular “industry meeting” with the FBI and DHS. It developed a formal system for receiving thousands of content reports from every corner of government: HHS, Treasury, NSA, and even local police.

At its essence, the Censorship-Industrial Complex is a bureaucracy willing to sacrifice factual truth to serve broader narrative objectives. It’s the opposite of what a free press does. The Twitter Files show the principles of this incestuous self-appointed truth squad. It’s moving from law enforcement/intelligence to the private sector and back, claiming a special right to do what they say is bad practice for everyone else: be fact-checked only by themselves.

Part 19 Of The Twitter Files

Since then, new information released on the Twitter Files on March 17th, 2022, revealed that the US government and major social media companies worked hand-in-hand with Stanford University to censor or limit accurate information about COVID-19.

Independent Journalist Matt Taibbi tweeted, 

"The Virality Project in 2021 worked with government to launch a pan-industry monitoring plan for Covid-related content. At least six major Internet platforms were 'onboarded' … daily sending millions of items for review."

For reference, the Virality Project is a ‘coalition of research entities focused on supporting real-time information exchange between the research community, public health officials, government agencies, civil society organizations, and social media platforms,’ per their website.

The goal of the project, created by Stanford University, was to identify people on social media who said things about COVID-19 that the government did not want them to say. Perhaps the most glaring issue Matt Taibbi highlighted in the Twitter Files drop was that the Virality Project was “repeatedly, extravagantly wrong.”

Autocrats Push Back

How will the ‘powers that be’ push back against the Twitter Files? The thing is, they’ve been pushing back Elon Musk for the entire time. One of the main ways they've been doing this is by going after Elon's other enterprises. Tesla has been hit with a barrage of baseless lawsuits and regulatory threats. 

Twitter has also been the target of a relentless propaganda campaign, claiming its fresh free-speech approach is destroying the world in every possible way. Many would say that’s unfair, considering that Twitter and other mainstream social media platforms had made the world a nastier place long before Elon got involved.

Most of this propaganda came from the European Union, which will begin enforcing its online censorship laws mid-year. Conceivably, the pressure on Elon and Twitter will only increase as we get closer to the 2024 election in the United States. It's clear that Twitter significantly influences political discourse in the USA. What's said on the platform could affect the next election's outcome, which gives Elon lots of power. 

Considering that he voted Republican for the first time last year, it's likely that he will be promoting whichever conservative candidate is selected to run. Bearing in mind that most US agencies seem to be aligned with the Democrats, it's likely they will do everything they can to prevent a Republican victory. 

This begs the question of how exactly they will take down Twitter. After all, Elon is a formidable foe; he's one of the wealthiest men in the world, has many connections, and has a massive loyal following. He can access advanced technologies thanks to all the companies he owns and operates. And therein lies the answer; cutting-edge technologies.

Putting on the ‘tin foil hat’ for a moment, it's plausible that US Agencies could attempt to take down Twitter by flooding it with deep fakes or images related to elections. This could give them the perfect excuse to return to Twitter, saying they're not taking content moderation seriously. US Agencies already have a history of doing this. (recall the eighth set of Twitter files above.)

Luckily Elon is a smart guy and probably saw this coming from a million miles away, and arguably one of the reasons why the paid verification badges were introduced. It makes it easy to identify which accounts are malicious. A digital forensics technique can also identify deep fakes, providing it stays vigilant of fast-paced emerging technology. This will make it easy for Twitter to scrub most, if not all, deep fake content before the 2024 election. The caveat is that it could simultaneously require everyone using Twitter to complete KYC to use the platform. 

At that point, the US government agencies would need to find a way to remove Elon from Twitter and install someone who will use this information for their own agenda. This takeover could happen to all legacy social media. 

In politics, deepfakes are the inevitable next step in the attack on truth. In addition, deepfakes weaponize information to maximize the dynamics of a social media ecosystem that prizes traffic above nearly all else.

The Panacea For This Coup d'etat

The only solution to this takeover is decentralized alternatives. Many platforms are popping up to combat government agencies' perverse centralization and infiltration. Former Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey has backed the development of an alternative micro-blogging platform like Twitter called Bluesky. Dorsey described it as “an open decentralized standard for social media.”

Markethive has gone one step further by incorporating an inbound marketing, social network, and content broadcasting platform for entrepreneurs. The ecosystem is a conceptual cottage industry, including a merchant accounting system and cryptocurrency. It has adopted the necessary measures to thwart any power plays by autocrats and heading toward total decentralization. CEO of Markethive, Tom Prendergast, says,

"Now more than ever, we rely on Web3 technology, so the safest and most logical way to go to achieve financial freedom, peace of mind, and self-sovereignty is online with a Blockchain-driven Market Network that is divinely inspired and will withstand and survive the perils, the world is now facing. We are in a time of biblical proportions Markethive is building the proverbial ark."

The transition from centralization to decentralization would be highly bullish for the cryptocurrency blockchains that support decentralized social media platforms. Given the calamity of the geopolitical corruptness and failing monetary system, an alternative crypto economy is making more sense than ever. 

 

 

 

Editor and Chief Markethive: Deb Williams. (Australia) I thrive on progress and champion freedom of speech. I embrace "Change" with a passion, and my purpose in life is to enlighten people to accept and move forward with enthusiasm. Find me at my Markethive Profile Page | My Twitter Account | and my LinkedIn Profile.

 

 

 

 

Tim Moseley