Solid performances from gold & silver and a jobs report above expectations

Solid performances from gold & silver and a jobs report above expectations

Both gold and silver had stellar performances this week. This week the precious metals moved on both the jobs report and chairman Powell’s speech on Wednesday.

Gold futures opened today at $1817 and traded to a low of $1791.80 before substantially recovering. As of 4:00 PM EST, the most active February 2023 contract is fixed at $1812.20 after factoring in today’s price decline of $3.10. Silver futures basis the most active March contract opened at $22.975, traded to a low of $22.48, and is currently fixed at $23.37 after factoring in today’s gain of $0.529 or 2.32%. The primary reason that gold had a fractional decline and silver had a solid gain was today’s jobs report which was bullish for silver and slightly bearish for gold.

However, the weekly gains in both gold and silver reveal a more complete story, with the precious metals reacting to an abundant amount of the major events this week. Gold futures opened on Monday at $1756 and is currently fixed at $1812.20 posting a weekly net gain of approximately $56 or 3.189%. Silver’s performance was even more stellar this week opening at $21.52 and is currently fixed at $23.365 resulting in a weekly gain of approximately $1.85 or 8.66%.

The November jobs report

By far the largest factor moving the precious metals this week was Wednesday’s speech by Chairman Jerome Powell in Washington. The jobs report could have a nuanced effect on the Federal Reserve’s upcoming rate hikes as well. Last month resulted in 263,000 additional jobs. Although this is the lowest number since December 2020, November’s additional jobs came in well above forecasts. Economists surveyed by Refinitiv predicted that only 200,000 new jobs were added last month. The unemployment rate remained at 3.7%. The report revealed that the labor market continues to be extremely tight resulting in a smaller number of individuals being hired for holiday employment. The report will also factor into the decisions of Federal Reserve members as they meet this month for the last FOMC meeting of the year. Gold traded fractionally lower, in response to today’s nonfarm payroll jobs report.

Levels to watch in gold futures from now until the end of Q1 2023

Technical evidence now supports the fact that market sentiment for gold had a major shift expressed in the charts as a reversal from exceedingly bearish to bullish beginning in November. The chart above is a daily candlestick chart of gold futures.

November 3 marked the beginning of a major rally in gold. After trading to a low of $1621 gold prices have surged to a high of $1818.70 today. This has resulted in gold prices gaining approximately 10.54% in the last month.

Our technical studies indicate that the current level of support is between $1790 and $1802. The upper level of support is based on the 200-day moving average, and the lower level is based on the most recent top of $1791 that occurred in the middle of November. We also see a much wider band of resistance with minor resistance occurring at $1824.60 based on a top that occurred during the first week of August and major resistance at $1883 which is based upon a top that occurred during the first part of June.

We have also created a Fibonacci extension to forecast where gold prices could go by the end of Q1 – Q2 2023. This was created by measuring the price gains from the low of $1621 on November 3 to the high achieved in mid-November at $1791.30. We then began a Fibonacci extension from the minor correction that occurred towards the end of November when gold prices sold off to a low of $1719. Based on this study we are predicting that gold could trade as high as $1955 by the middle of 2023.

The largest takeaway from recent changes in the price of gold is that the rally which began on November 3 is signaling that a major pivot of market sentiment by investors in both gold and silver from bearish to bullish took place. Our technical studies presented today indicate that it is likely that that rally will continue not only through the end of this year but into the first half of 2023.

By Gary Wagner

Contributing to kitco.com

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Gold, silver rally amid bullish outside markets, dovish Powell

Gold and silver prices are sharply higher in midday U.S. trading Thursday, with gold notching a 3.5-month high and silver a six-month high. A slumping U.S. dollar index, higher crude oil prices and falling U.S. Treasury yields on this day are all boosting the precious metals markets. 

March silver futures prices hit a six-month high today. The silver bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a choppy three-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $24.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $20.79. First resistance is seen at today's high of $22.945 and then at $23.00. Next support is seen at today's low of $22.24 and then at $22.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

March N.Y. copper closed up 640 points at 380.25 cents today. Prices closed near the session high today. The copper bulls have thet overall near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the November high of 394.70 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 350.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 385.00 cents and then at 390.00 cents. First support is seen at today's low of 373.50 cents and then at 365.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

lean by the U.S. central bank is also fueling the metals markets bulls today. February gold was last up $56.60 at $1,816.50 and March silver was up $1.034 at $22.82.

The marketplace deemed Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's highly anticipated speech at the Brookings Institution Wednesday afternoon as leaning dovish on U.S. monetary policy. That rallied the U.S. stock market, pressured the U.S. dollar index and dropped U.S. Treasury yields. Gold and silver prices rallied in the aftermath of Powell's remarks. He said the U.S. central bank could slow the pace of monetary policy tightening as soon as the FOMC meeting in two weeks. However, Powell said the Fed will need to hold policy at restrictive levels “for some time.” Powell added that inflation remains far too high and that future rate hikes are warranted.

Global stock markets were mostly firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are weaker at midday following strong gains posted Wednesday.

Traders continue to monitor the civil unrest in China. It seems the situation is not spiraling out of control, but neither is it fading away. Reports say China is relaxing some its Covid lockdowns (likely due to the public protests), while at the same time China says new Covid infections are declining and vaccinations are on the rise. Relaxed Covid restrictions in the world's second-largest economy suggest better economic strength for China, which in turn would mean better demand for metals.

GLD positioning itself for future growth with second custodian for its gold

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index sharply lower and hitting a 3.5-month low. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $82.25 a barrel. There have been some reports OPEC at its meeting early next week will consider cutting its collective crude oil production. Other reports say the cartel will leave its production unchanged. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently 3.556%.

Focus is now on Friday morning's U.S. employment situation report for November. The key non-farm payrolls figure is expected to come in at up 200,000, compared to the rise of 261,000 seen in the October report.

Technically,February gold futures prices hit a 3.5-month high today. The gold futures bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage and gained more power today. Prices are in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $1,850.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at this week's low of $1,752.90. First resistance is seen at today's high of $1,818.40 and then at the August high of $1,836.70. First support is seen at $1,800.00 and then at today's low of $1,782.90. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

March silver futures prices hit a six-month high today. The silver bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a choppy three-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $24.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $20.79. First resistance is seen at today's high of $22.945 and then at $23.00. Next support is seen at today's low of $22.24 and then at $22.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

March N.Y. copper closed up 640 points at 380.25 cents today. Prices closed near the session high today. The copper bulls have thet overall near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the November high of 394.70 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 350.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 385.00 cents and then at 390.00 cents. First support is seen at today's low of 373.50 cents and then at 365.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

By Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Gold, silver sell off as USDX rebounds from overnight low

Gold and silver prices are lower and nearer their daily lows in midday U.S. trading Monday. The metals are seeing selling pressure as the U.S. dollar index has rallied after trading solidly lower overnight. There are also worries about global demand for metals as unrest in China, the world's second-largest economy, is likely to further squelch that country's economic growth. February gold was last down $11.10 at $1,757.90 and March silver was down $0.474 at $21.135.

The marketplace is very uneasy to start the trading week amid civil unrest in China over its strict zero-Covid policies. Reports said there were demonstrations across China over the weekend. It's the largest show of discontent since the Tiananmen Square protests in 1989. China is the world's second-largest economy and the most populous nation. The geopolitical and economic consequences of a further escalation in protests and any crackdown by Chinese authorities would be huge. However, is this situation escalates, look for better safe-haven demand for gold and silver.

Other big market events this week include a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Wednesday afternoon and the U.S. employment report from the Labor Department on Friday morning.

Silver jewelry demand hits records, makes headlines in high fashion

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher after trading solidly lower overnight. Nymex crude oil prices are weaker but well off the 10-month low hit overnight and are trading around $75.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently 3.69%.

Technically, February gold futures prices scored a bearish "outside day" down on the daily bar chart. The gold futures bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but need to show fresh power soon to keep it. Bulls' next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the November high of $1,806.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,700.00. First resistance is seen at today's high of $1,778.50 and then at $1,790.00. First support is seen at $1,750.00 and then at last week's low of $1,733.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

March silver futures bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a choppy three-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the November high of $22.50. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $19.00. First resistance is seen at today's high of $21.815 and then at $22.00. Next support is seen at $21.00 and then at last week's low of $20.79. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

March N.Y. copper closed down 370 points at 359.35 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session high and hit a three-week low today. The copper bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the November high of 394.70 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 330.00 cents. First resistance is seen at Friday's high of 369.35 cents and then at 375.00 cents. First support is seen at today's low of 354.70 cents and then at 350.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

By Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

The Fed is not ready to pivot now, but it might be soon

The gold market continues to hold its own as prices end the week slightly above $1,750 an ounce. The precious metal was once again thrown a lifeline by the Federal Reserve after the minutes from the November monetary policy meeting were deemed to have a dovish tilt.

According to the minutes, a majority of participants judged that a slowing in the pace of increases would likely be appropriate soon. The messaging is helping to solidify expectations that the U.S. central bank will raise interest rates by 50 basis points next month.

Although the gold market is keeping its head above the water, holding critical support levels, investors still appear to be reluctant to make any significant bullish bets. The lack of conviction is not surprising, as other pivot rumors throughout the summer have burned investors.

While the Fed is preparing to slow the pace of its rate hikes, many market analysts have pointed out that this is not a pivot. Markets still see the terminal rate in the Fed Funds above 5% and nobody knows how long rates will be kept at this level.

This will still be a difficult environment for gold. However, even if prices are capped at around $1,800, it is still important to note that despite the strong headwinds, gold continues to outperform the broader market and remains an important portfolio diversifier.

The French bank Société Générale has probably the healthiest outlook on gold. The bank made some significant adjustments to its multi-asset portfolio ahead of the new year. It is now heavily weighted in bonds. At the same time, it has only made a slight adjustment to its gold allocation. It now represents 6% of its portfolio, down from 7%.

Although the bank sees gold prices going lower next year, they still see value in holding the precious metal.

"Systemic risks are a common feature after a round of policy tightening of this kind," the analysts said. "Holding gold and CHF can help stabilize portfolio volatility, in our view."

Gold prices should be closer to $1,614 than $1,750 – Quant Insight

The system risks to the economy only continue to grow. This week Tavi Costa, portfolio manager at Crescat Capital, noted that 70% of the entire U.S. yield curve is now inverted. He added that every time this threshold has been breached, it has soon led to a recession.

Specifically, the yield on two-year notes is now 71 basis points higher than the 10-year yield. This is the widest gap in the inverted yield curve in more than 40 years.

Tavi noted that even if gold prices do go lower, there is solid value and potential in the precious metal that investors can't ignore.

With so much uncertainty in the marketplace, some analysts have said that it is only a matter of time before the Fed's slower tightening turns into outright cuts.

By Neils Christensen

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Gold needs a new catalyst as prices end the week around $1,750

The gold market is holding its own at $1,750 an ounce, but analysts are warning investors not to expect a breakout move anytime soon as the precious metal is in desperate need of a new catalyst to drive prices.

According to commodity analysts, the Federal Reserve's aggressive monetary policy stance remains the most significant driver for the gold market. While the U.S. central bank has signed that it could slow the pace of rate hikes in December, investors remain reluctant to jump into the market.

Nicholas Frappell, global general manager at ABC Bullion, noted that gold's rally since the start of the month has been driven mostly by short covering, investors buying gold to cover their short trades. He added that investors are also not buying gold-backed exchange-traded products.

He said it doesn't look like any bullish momentum will last in the current environment.

"Fresh buyers are not motivated in either the Futures or ETF space," he said. "Additionally, the messaging from the Fed is that if anything, rates will stay high for longer and this will help the USD and rates – gold appears to have rallied on a slower path towards high and long."

Markets will be able to hear from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell himself when he speaks next week at an event at the Brookings Institution in Washington DC.

Although markets are looking for the Federal Reserve to slow the pace of its rate hikes to 50 basis points next month, some analysts have said that it is still too early to signal any pivot in the marketplace.

Commodity analysts at TD Securities expect hawkish comments from Powell to weigh on gold as its upside momentum has run its course.

SocGen looks for bonds to outperform equities as Fed pivots in Q2; gold remains a risk hedge

"Considering that we see buying exhaustion across several major global assets, macro headwinds for gold bears already appear to be subsiding. This points to lower risks of an extension in the pain trade for gold, particularly as Chair Powell's speech on Wednesday could provide the hawkish catalyst needed for CTAs to resume selling," the commodity analysts said.

Along with Powell's comments, a busier economic data calendar next week is also expected to add volatility to the marketplace. Economists have said that next week's employment data could impact market expectations on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.

In recent comments, Powell has said that the labor market has been too tight and the Fed would need to see more slack before it would start to ease back on its aggressive stance.

According to consensus estimates, economists forecast that about 200,000 jobs were created in November.

"Odds are that job gains will still be too high relative to the moderation we're seeking," said Avery Shenfeld, senior economist at CIBC.

Along with the economic data, gold investors will continue to pay close attention to the U.S. dollar. Carley Garner, co-founder of the brokerage firm DeCarley Trading, said that the U.S. dollar index is testing critical support around 106 points. She added that any weakness in the U.S. dollar could end up sending gold prices back above $1,800 an ounce.

Next week's data

Tuesday: U.S. Consumer confidence

Wednesday: ADP private-sector employment, Q3 GDP, pending home sales, JOLTS job opening, comments from Powell

Thursday, UK CPI, U.S. PCE personal income and spending, ISM manufacturing PMI,
 

Friday, U.S. Nonfarm payrolls

By Neils Christensen

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

SocGen looks for bonds to outperform equities as Fed pivots in Q2 – gold remains a risk hedge

A mild recession in the U.S. in 2023 will force the Federal Reserve to pivot in the second quarter of next year, according to market analysts at Société Générale.

The French bank said Thursday that it was making some significant changes to its multi-asset portfolio ahead of the new year and is heavily weighted toward sovereign debt compared to equities and commodities. The bank also said that it is reducing its cash position to zero.

"Overall, expected return should be more positive than in 2022, with particular focus on Treasuries, EM and Credit. U.S. technology remains at risk and Chinese assets uninspiring," the analysts said. "We believe the clear prospect of an imminent Fed pivot offers the opportunity to increase cheap quality credit and strongly re-gear our strategy towards cheap E.M. assets, from unhedged local currency bonds to (mostly) non-China Asian equities."

As to how high the Fed Fund's rate will go, the economists said that market expectations of a terminal rate close to 5% would be appropriate. They added that that would bring real interest rates up to 1.5% to 2%.

"We believe that pivoting before the real Fed fund rate is firmly in positive territory would be a policy error and would trigger much stronger volatility," the analysts said.

As SocGen increases its exposure to government and corporate debt, it is also slightly reducing its commodity holdings to 9%, down from 10% in September. Gold still makes up the biggest portion of its commodity position, but has been reduced to 6%, down from 7% in September.

The analysts said they continue to see gold as a hedge against risks.

Investors thankful spot gold prices holding above $1,750

"Systemic risks are a common feature after a round of policy tightening of this kind," the analysts said. "Holding gold and CHF can help stabilize portfolio volatility, in our view."

Although the bank continues to maintain a solid position in gold, it remains fairly bearish on the price next year. The French bank sees gold prices falling to an average of $1,500 an ounce by the third quarter of next year. However, prices are expected to recover and average around $1,650 an ounce by the fourth quarter.

The French bank sees continued improvement in gold through 2024, projecting an average annual price of around $1,800 an ounce. The analysts forecast prices to rise to $1,900 by 2025.

By Neils Christensen

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Gold price firms after FOMC minutes lean a bit dovish

Gold and silver prices are higher and hit daily highs in afternoon U.S. trading Wednesday. The U.S. data point of the week saw the FOMC meeting minutes tilt slightly dovish on U.S. monetary policy. December gold was last up $5.70 at $1,745.50 and December silver was up $0.381 at $21.43.

The just-released minutes from the last FOMC monetary policy meeting showed FOMC members saying it would soon be appropriate to slow the pace of U.S. interest rate increases. However, they also see a higher terminal Fed funds rate than they had earlier expected. Some Fed officials were worried the Fed could be tightening monetary policy more than necessary. As always, traders were looking at the minutes to see if they contain any new clues on the future path and timing of Fed monetary policy.

Most global stock markets were slightly up overnight. U.S. stock indexes are higher in afternoon trading, following the dovish FOMC mintues. The marketplace remained tentative at mid-week as Covid-19 cases in China continue to rise and are crimping the world’s second-largest economy. Newswire reports this morning quoted Chinese officials as saying they will further ease China’s monetary policies in an effort to produce more economic growth.

Gold prices should be closer to $1,614 than $1,750 – Quant Insight

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index sharply lower. Nymex crude oil prices are also sharply lower and trading around $77.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently around 3.71%.

U.S. markets are closed on Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday.

Technically, the gold futures bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. A fledgling price uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the November high of $1,791.80. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,675.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $1,755.00 and then at $1,770.00. First support is seen at $1,725.00 and then at today’s low of $1,719.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

The silver bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a choppy 2.5-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the November high of $22.38. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $19.00. First resistance is seen at $22.00 and then at $22.38. Next support is seen at $21.00 and then at this week’s low of $20.60. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

December N.Y. copper closed up 80 points at 362.25 cents today. Prices closed near mid-range. The copper bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. A six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has stalled out. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the November high of 396.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 330.00 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 366.90 cents and then at 370.00 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 354.75 cents and then at 350.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

By Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Gold, silver slightly up amid weaker USDX, higher crude oil

Gold and silver prices are slightly higher but well off daily highs in midday U.S. trading Tuesday. The metals are getting a slight lift from a lower U.S. dollar index and higher crude oil prices on this day. U.S. Treasury yields have down-ticked today and that's also limiting selling interest in the safe-haven metals. December gold was last up $2.20 at $1,741.80 and December silver was up $0.178 at $21.05.

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are higher at midday. Risk appetite remains subdued so far this week as Covid cases surge in China. News reports are calling China's largest city, Beijing, a "ghost town." Some analysts are saying 20% of China's economy is being negatively impacted by the Covid lockdowns.

Wednesday will be the busiest day for U.S. economic data, including the minutes from the last FOMC monetary policy meeting, to be released in the early afternoon. A Barron's headline today reads: "Don't tune out for the holidays; the Fed minutes will be a must watch." The minutes may contain fresh clues on the future path and timing of Fed monetary policy.

Turkey, Uzbekistan continue to buy gold, speculation grows that China is buying anonymously

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower on a corrective pullback from solid gains posted Monday. Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and trading around $81.50 a barrel. The crude oil market was roiled Monday by reports Saudi Arabia is contemplating raising its crude oil production—only to have Saudi officials deny the report. Oil prices fell to an 11-month low shortly after the news reports hit the wires. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently 3.773%.

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]

Technically, the gold futures bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. A fledgling price uptrend on the daily bar chart has stalled out. Bulls' next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the November high of $1,791.80. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,675.00. First resistance is seen at this week's high of $1,755.00 and then at $1,770.00. First support is seen at this week's low of $1,733.90 and then at $1,725.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

The silver bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a choppy 2.5-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the November high of $22.38. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $19.00. First resistance is seen at today's high of $21.37 and then at $21.80. Next support is seen at this week's low of $20.60 and then at $20.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

December N.Y. copper closed up 525 points at 362.40 cents today. Prices closed near mid-range. The copper bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. A six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has stalled out. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the November high of 396.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 330.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today's high of 366.90 cents and then at 370.00 cents. First support is seen at this week's low of 354.75 cents and then at 350.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

By Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Gold, silver down as USDX rallies, crude oil tanks

Gold and silver prices are solidly lower in midday U.S. trading Monday. The metals are feeling the heat of strong gains in the U.S. dollar index to start the trading week and a big drop in crude oil prices. December gold was last down $20.00 at $1,734.30 and December silver was down $0.302 at $20.70.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index in a strong rebound, including sharply higher prices today, after the index hit a three-month low last week. Nymex crude oil prices are sharply down today and hit a 10.5-month low. News wire reports today said Saudi Arabia is considering a modest increase in its crude oil production. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently 3.819%.

Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are weaker at midday. Risk aversion is keener to start a U.S. holiday-shortened trading week. U.S. markets are closed Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday. China has recorded its first Covid deaths in six months as the world’s second-largest economy continues to struggle with rising Covid cases and lockdowns. Reports said infections in Beijing have more than doubled the past few days. This news has stock and commodity markets under pressure due to global demand worries.

FTX was running like a "fractional reserve" bank; its collapse is "the craziest thing" in crypto history – Crypto Megan

Wednesday will be the busiest day for U.S. economic data, including the minutes from the last FOMC monetary policy meeting, to be released in the early afternoon.

Technically, the gold futures bulls have lost the slight overall near-term technical advantage. A fledgling price uptrend on the daily bar chart has stalled out. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the November high of $1,791.80. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the November low of $1,618.30. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $1,755.00 and then at $1,770.00. First support is seen at $1,725.00 and then at $1,700.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

The silver bulls still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but are fading. Prices are in a choppy 2.5-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the November high of $22.38. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $19.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $21.04 and then at $21.50. Next support is seen at $20.50 and then at $20.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

December N.Y. copper closed down 720 points at 356.00 cents today. Prices closed near the session low today and hit a two-week low. The key outside markets were bearish for copper today as the U.S. dollar index was sharply higher and crude oil prices were sharply lower. The copper bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. A six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has stalled out. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the November high of 396.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 330.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 364.80 cents and then at 370.00 cents. First support is seen at 350.00 cents and then at 342.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

By Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Market sentiment for gold adjusts to recent Fed officials' comments

The Merriam-Webster dictionary defines sentiment as, “an attitude, thought, or judgment prompted by feeling: predilection.: a specific view or notion: opinion.: emotion.: refined feeling: delicate sensibility especially as expressed in a work of art.: emotional idealism.”

As it pertains to the financial markets, market sentiment is the view or attitude that creates our opinion as to whether an asset class is overvalued or undervalued. It shapes and changes the value of a stock or commodity’s price.

Market sentiment is overly sensitive to statements and comments made by Federal Reserve officials because those individuals have the power and influence to change monetary policy. There is a dramatic difference between the perception of upcoming Federal Reserve monetary policy changes and the actions of Federal Reserve officials.

The Federal Reserve raised rates at every FOMC meeting this year except in January, from March through November, a total of six rate hikes. Over the last four FOMC meetings (June, July, September, and November) they raised rates by 75 basis points. The aggressive nature of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy moved gold dramatically lower from March up until the beginning of November. Gold traded to its highest value this year of $2078 in March. By the beginning of November, gold prices had dropped to approximately $1621, resulting in a price decline of 21.99%.

During the first week of November, market sentiment shifted because inflation rates had declined fractionally and investors viewed this fractional drop as a signal that the Federal Reserve would begin to loosen its aggressive monetary policy. This caused gold to rise dramatically from $1621 to an intraday high of $1792 by Tuesday, November 15. Because the CPI index dropped from 8.2% year-over-year in September to 7.7% year-over-year in October investors believed that the Federal Reserve would become more dovish regarding upcoming rate hikes.

However, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller told a conference in Sydney, Australia Sunday November 13, "We're not softening…Quit paying attention to the pace and start paying attention to where the endpoint is going to be. Until we get inflation down, that endpoint is still a way out there." On November 14 multiple Federal Reserve officials made comments to the contrary.

San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly, “It’s far from a victory”. Lorie Logan the Federal Reserve’s president of the Dallas central bank said that last week’s report is, “a welcome relief”, but will not alleviate the need for more rate increases possibly at a slower pace.

The statements made over the weekend and on Monday, November 14 dramatically changed market sentiment concerning gold prices. Gold prices hit the intraday high above $1790 the following day and then began to have three consecutive days of price declines from Wednesday to Friday. To add fuel to the fire today St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said that the Fed’s benchmark policy right might need to rise as high as 7%.

The statements moved gold pricing from Tuesday's high to its current pricing. As of 4:27 PM EST, the most active December futures contract is currently fixed at $1751.30 after factoring in today’s net decline of $11.60. The statements will likely continue to create bearish market sentiment for gold.

By Gary Wagner

Contributing to kitco.com

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