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There is a reasonable probability the Fed will conclude its rate hikes this month

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There is a reasonable probability the Fed will conclude its rate hikes this month

The CME Fed watch tool is predicting that there is a 99.8% probability that the Federal Reserve will implement a ¼% rate hike on July 26 when the next FOMC meeting concludes. It is also likely that this month's rate hike will conclude the series of hikes by the Federal Reserve that began in March 2022. The latest CPI (Consumer Price Index) and PPI (Producer Price Index) reports indicate that inflationary pressures are diminishing and getting closer to the Federal Reserve's target of 2%.

At its highest point, the CPI was at 9.1% and has now contracted to 3% in June. This combined with a decrease of 0.2% through June in the Producer Price Index (for all goods minus food and energy). A survey conducted by the University of Michigan revealed that consumer sentiment skyrocketed to 72.6% in July 13% above sentiment in June.

If the Fed is as they have long proclaimed "data dependent" then these recent reports demonstrate that the U.S. economy has contracted substantially bringing down the level of inflation.

The CME's probability indicator is forecasting an 87.9% probability that rates will be left where they are at the September FOMC meeting, a 71.8% probability in November, and a 64% probability in December.

An article penned by Avraham Shama an Opinion Contributor for THE HILL titled, "The Fed is raising interest rates again: it's a mistake that could spark a recession", warns that if the Fed wants the best serve the US economy it must stop raising rates to avoid a recession.

In his article, he addresses the fact that "the Fed and its Chairman Jerome Powell have been unable to recognize a heating or cooling economy in a timely fashion to take quarterly action to minimize the negative effects". He discusses a series of missteps beginning with monetary tightening by the Fed in 2019 prematurely which required a pivot to reverse that trend. He addressed the fact that the Federal Reserve waited too long before initiating the first rate hike in March 2022 when inflation was already above 8%.

Gold traded to its highest value this year during the first week of May when gold briefly touched $2083 and then corrected to a low of $1900 on June 20. Today gold futures basis the most active August contract is fractionally lower down $0.40 or 0.02% and fixed at $1980.40.

It is reasonable to assume that market sentiment will assume a much more bullish demeanor if it has clear knowledge that the series of rate hikes is over. More importantly, when the Federal Reserve does initiate its first rate cut which could occur as early as the first quarter of 2024 one would expect bullish market sentiment to return allowing gold to challenge the recent record highs just below $2100 per ounce.

By

Gary Wagner

Contributing to kitco.com

Time to Buy Gold and silver

Tim Moseley

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Gold rallies as empowered bulls set sights on 2000

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Gold rallies as empowered bulls set sights on $2,000

Gold prices are sharply up and hit a 2.5-month high in midday U.S. trading Tuesday. Silver prices are also sharply up and hit a nine-week high. The charts have recently turned more bullish for both precious metals, which is inviting the technically based speculators to the long side of those markets. A weaker-than-expected U.S. retail sales report this morning is also supporting ideas the Federal Reserve can take its foot of the gas sooner, regarding its interest-rate-increase cycle. August gold was last up $26.40 at $1,983.00 and September silver was up $0.347 at $25.365.

June U.S. retail sales were reported up 0.2% versus expectations of a rise of 0.5%, month-on-month. This report, along with the U.S. employment report for June released in early July, seem to fall into the sweet spot for those market watchers looking for a soft landing for the U.S. economy. No U.S. and/or global recession setting in would be a scenario for better global demand for metals. Yet, global growth is not so strong as to prompt major central banks to continue tightening their monetary policies and raising interest rates, which would crimp demand for commodities.

Asian and European stock markets were mixed in quieter overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are higher at midday and hit new highs for the year. The U.S. stock index bulls are enjoying price uptrends in place on the daily bar charts, also reflecting the upbeat trader and investor attitudes at present.

The U.S. dollar 'will die' with BRICS new currency, warns Robert Kiyosaki

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are up trading around $75.50 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.777%.

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]

Technically, August gold futures prices hit a 2.5-month high today. Bulls have gained the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $2,000.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the June low of $1,900.60. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $1,988.30 and then at $2,000.00. First support is seen at $1,972.00 and then at today’s low of $1,958.10. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

Live 24 hours silver chart [ Kitco Inc. ]

September silver futures prices hit a nine-week high today. The silver bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. A three-week-old price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the April high of $26.645. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $23.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $25.405 and then at $25.85. Next support is seen at this week’s low of $24.815 and then at $24.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

September N.Y. copper closed down 85 points at 383.55 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. The copper bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field amid choppy trading. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the June high of 396.40 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 368.30 cents. First resistance is seen at 390.00 cents and then at the July high of 395.40 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 380.30 cents and then at 374.25 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

By

Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and silver

Tim Moseley

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Narrow-Minded or Broad-Minded: How to Recognize Which One You Are

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Narrow-Minded or Broad-Minded: How to Recognize Which One You Are

Narrow-mindedness can prevent individuals from experiencing new ideas and opportunities. On the other hand, broad-mindedness can lead to personal growth and an open-minded approach to life. But how do you know if you are narrow-minded or broad-minded?

According to experts, narrow-minded people tend to be resistant to change and new ideas. They may judge others harshly and dismiss opinions that do not align with their own. In contrast, broad-minded individuals are open to different perspectives and willing to consider new ideas. They tend to be more tolerant and accepting of others.

It is important to note that narrow-mindedness and broad-mindedness are not black and white concepts. People can fall somewhere on a spectrum between the two. Additionally, a person may be narrow-minded in one area of their life while being broad-minded in another. Understanding where you fall on this spectrum can help you identify areas for personal growth and development.

Understanding Narrow-Mindedness

Characteristics of Narrow-Minded People

Narrow-minded people tend to have a limited perspective and are often unwilling to consider alternative viewpoints. They may be rigid in their thinking and behavior, and resistant to change. They may also be judgmental, opinionated, and quick to dismiss ideas that do not align with their own beliefs.

According to an article by I Heart Intelligence, narrow-minded people often have a "know-it-all" attitude and are quick to offer unsolicited advice. They may also be prejudiced against people who are different from them, such as those from different cultures or with different lifestyles. Narrow-minded individuals may exhibit conventional behavior and resist new or innovative ideas.

Examples of Narrow-Minded Behavior

Narrow-minded behavior can manifest in various ways. For instance, a narrow-minded person may refuse to try new foods, listen to different kinds of music, or read books that challenge their beliefs. They may also be resistant to change in their personal or professional lives, and may be unwilling to learn new skills or take on new challenges.

In an article by Verywell Mind, it is noted that narrow-minded individuals may also be quick to judge others based on their appearance, beliefs, or lifestyle choices. They may hold onto outdated or incorrect beliefs, and may be unwilling to consider new information that contradicts their existing views.

Consequences of Being Narrow-Minded

Being narrow-minded can have negative consequences for individuals and society as a whole. Narrow-minded people may miss out on opportunities for personal growth and development, and may struggle to adapt to changing circumstances. They may also struggle to form meaningful relationships with others, as their rigid thinking and behavior can be off-putting to those who hold different beliefs.

In an article by Haas News, it is noted that narrow-mindedness can also have negative consequences for leaders in business and other fields. Leaders who are narrow-minded may struggle to innovate and adapt to changing market conditions, and may be less effective at motivating and inspiring their teams.

Overall, it is important to recognize the signs of narrow-mindedness and work to overcome them in order to achieve personal and professional growth.

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Understanding Broad-Mindedness

Characteristics of Broad-Minded People

Broad-minded people are characterized by their willingness to consider different perspectives and ideas. They are open to new experiences and are receptive to change. They have a curious nature and are interested in learning about the world around them. They are tolerant of other people's beliefs and opinions, even if they do not agree with them. Broad-minded people have a non-judgmental attitude and are respectful of others.

Examples of Broad-Minded Behavior

Broad-minded behavior can be seen in a variety of situations. For example, a broad-minded person may be willing to try new foods or travel to new places. They may be open to different types of music or art. They may be willing to listen to different viewpoints and consider other people's opinions. Broad-minded people are often good listeners and are willing to engage in meaningful conversations with others.

Benefits of Being Broad-Minded

Being broad-minded has many benefits. It allows people to be more receptive to new ideas and experiences, which can lead to personal growth and development. It also allows people to be more tolerant of others, which can lead to stronger relationships and a more peaceful world. Broad-minded people are often more creative and innovative, as they are able to think outside the box and come up with new solutions to problems.

In conclusion, broad-mindedness is an important trait to have in today's world. It allows people to be more receptive to new ideas and experiences, which can lead to personal growth and development. It also allows people to be more tolerant of others, which can lead to stronger relationships and a more peaceful world. Broad-minded people are often more creative and innovative, as they are able to think outside the box and come up with new solutions to problems.

The Spectrum of Mindsets

From Narrow to Broad

People have different ways of thinking and approaching situations. Some individuals have a narrow mindset, while others have a broad one. A narrow-minded person tends to have a limited perspective and is resistant to new ideas and experiences. On the other hand, a broad-minded person is open to new experiences and ideas and has a more flexible perspective.

The spectrum of mindsets ranges from narrow to broad, with most people falling somewhere in between. Those who have a narrow mindset tend to have a fixed view of the world and are less likely to embrace new experiences or learn new things. They prefer to stay within their comfort zone and are less likely to take risks or deviate from their routine.

In contrast, those with a broad mindset are more open to new experiences and are willing to learn new things. They are not afraid to take risks and are more likely to step out of their comfort zone. They have a more flexible perspective and are able to adapt to changing circumstances.

Influence of Personal Experiences

Personal experiences play a significant role in shaping a person's mindset. People who have had limited experiences tend to have a more narrow mindset, while those who have had diverse experiences tend to have a more broad mindset. For example, someone who has never traveled outside of their hometown may have a limited perspective on the world, while someone who has traveled extensively may have a more global perspective.

Personal experiences can also influence a person's ability to learn new things and adapt to new situations. Those who have had positive experiences with change and new experiences are more likely to embrace them in the future. In contrast, those who have had negative experiences may be more resistant to change and new experiences.

In conclusion, the spectrum of mindsets ranges from narrow to broad, with most people falling somewhere in between. Personal experiences play a significant role in shaping a person's mindset, and those who have had diverse experiences are more likely to have a broad mindset.

Identifying Your Own Mindset

Understanding your own mindset is the first step towards developing a broad-minded approach to life. It requires self-reflection, feedback from others, and a willingness to challenge your own beliefs and assumptions.

Self-Reflection

Self-reflection is the process of examining your own thoughts, feelings, and behaviors. It is a critical tool for identifying your own mindset. To reflect on your own mindset, consider the following questions:

  • What are your beliefs and assumptions about the world?
  • Do you tend to approach new ideas with curiosity or skepticism?
  • How do you react to change and conflict?
  • Are you open to feedback and willing to change your opinions?
  • Do you tend to judge others based on their beliefs or actions?

By answering these questions, you can gain a better understanding of your own mindset and identify areas where you may need to make changes.

Feedback from Others

Feedback from others can also be a valuable tool for identifying your own mindset. Ask friends, family members, or colleagues for their honest opinions about your approach to life. Consider the following questions:

  • Do others see you as open-minded or narrow-minded?
  • Do they feel comfortable sharing their opinions with you?
  • Do they feel like you are willing to listen to their perspectives?
  • Do they feel like you are judgmental or critical of their beliefs?

By asking for feedback from others, you can gain a new perspective on your own mindset and identify areas where you may need to make changes.

In summary, identifying your own mindset requires self-reflection and feedback from others. By being open to new ideas, willing to challenge your own beliefs, and receptive to feedback, you can develop a broad-minded approach to life that will help you grow and thrive.

How to Broaden Your Mindset

Embracing New Experiences

One of the best ways to broaden your mindset is to embrace new experiences. This can be anything from trying a new food to traveling to a new country. When you try new things, you expose yourself to different cultures, ideas, and ways of thinking. This can help you develop a broader perspective and become more open-minded.

To embrace new experiences, it's important to cultivate curiosity. This means being open to learning new things and exploring new ideas. You can do this by reading books, watching documentaries, or attending lectures on topics that interest you. You can also try new hobbies or activities that challenge you and push you out of your comfort zone.

Challenging Your Beliefs

Another way to broaden your mindset is to challenge your beliefs. This means being willing to question your assumptions and consider different perspectives. When you challenge your beliefs, you open yourself up to new ideas and ways of thinking.

To challenge your beliefs, it's important to be open-minded and willing to listen to others. This means engaging in conversations with people who have different opinions and perspectives than your own. You can also read books or articles that challenge your beliefs and force you to consider different viewpoints.

It's also important to be willing to change your mind. When you encounter new information or perspectives, be open to revising your beliefs. This doesn't mean you have to abandon your core values or principles, but it does mean being willing to reevaluate your assumptions and adjust your thinking accordingly.

In summary, broadening your mindset requires a willingness to embrace new experiences and challenge your beliefs. By cultivating curiosity and being open-minded, you can develop a broader perspective and become more adaptable to change.

The Role of Open-Mindedness in Different Fields

Open-mindedness is a crucial trait that helps individuals in different fields to be more receptive to new ideas and information. In this section, we will explore the role of open-mindedness in three different fields: Arts, Science, and History.

Arts

In the arts, open-mindedness is essential for creativity and innovation. Artists need to be open to new ideas and perspectives to create unique and original works of art. Being open-minded allows artists to explore new techniques, styles, and mediums, which can lead to groundbreaking works of art. Open-mindedness in the arts also helps to promote diversity and inclusivity, as artists can create works that represent a wide range of cultures and experiences.

Science

In science, open-mindedness is crucial for discovering new knowledge and advancing our understanding of the world. Scientists need to be open to new ideas and evidence, even if it contradicts their current beliefs or theories. Open-mindedness in science allows researchers to explore new hypotheses and theories, which can lead to breakthrough discoveries and advancements in their field. Being open-minded also helps scientists to collaborate and communicate effectively with their peers, which is essential for advancing scientific knowledge.

History

In history, open-mindedness is important for understanding different perspectives and interpretations of past events. Historians need to be open to different viewpoints and evidence, even if it challenges their current understanding of history. Open-mindedness in history allows researchers to explore different narratives and perspectives, which can lead to a more comprehensive understanding of past events. Being open-minded also helps historians to avoid bias and promote objectivity in their research.

In conclusion, open-mindedness plays a vital role in different fields such as arts, science, and history. Being open-minded allows individuals to explore new ideas and perspectives, which can lead to creativity, innovation, and advancements in their respective fields.

Understanding Narrow-Mindedness and Broad-Mindedness in Language

Synonyms

Narrow-mindedness is often used interchangeably with terms like bigotry, intolerance, and prejudice. It is the inability to consider different perspectives, ideas, or beliefs. On the other hand, broad-mindedness is often used interchangeably with open-mindedness, tolerance, and acceptance. It is the ability to consider and accept different perspectives, ideas, or beliefs.

Example Sentences

An example of narrow-mindedness is someone who refuses to acknowledge the validity of different religious beliefs. An example of broad-mindedness is someone who is accepting of different sexual orientations.

First Known Use

The first known use of the word "narrow-minded" was in the 1630s, while the first known use of the word "broad-minded" was in the 1820s.

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Dictionary Entries

According to Merriam-Webster, narrow-mindedness is defined as "not willing to accept opinions, beliefs, behaviors, etc. that are unusual or different from one's own." Broad-mindedness, on the other hand, is defined as "tolerant of varied views; inclined to condone minor departures from conventional behavior."

The editors of Merriam-Webster note that these definitions are programmatically compiled from online sources and may not always reflect current usage or nuances in meaning.

Word history and usage can be complex, and it is important to consider the context in which a word is used. It is also important to note that the usage of these terms may differ in different regions or cultures.

In summary, narrow-mindedness and broad-mindedness are two opposing attitudes towards different perspectives, beliefs, and ideas. While narrow-mindedness is associated with intolerance and prejudice, broad-mindedness is associated with acceptance and tolerance.

Conclusion

In conclusion, it's important to recognize the signs of narrow-mindedness and broaden one's perspective to become more open-minded. Being open-minded allows one to think critically and objectively, avoiding dogmatic and extreme views.

Arguing from a narrow-minded perspective can often lead to unnecessary conflict and petty arguments. Instead, one should strive to understand different viewpoints and engage in constructive dialogue, even if they don't agree with the other person's perspective.

By cultivating an open mind, one can expand their knowledge and grow as a person. It's important to remember that being open-minded doesn't mean abandoning one's beliefs or values, but rather being willing to consider other perspectives and adjust one's views accordingly.

Overall, being broad-minded allows for greater understanding and empathy towards others, and can lead to more meaningful and fulfilling interactions in all aspects of life.

Tim Moseley

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Here’s Why AI May Be Extremely Dangerous Whether It’s Conscious or Not

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Here’s Why AI May Be Extremely Dangerous — Whether It’s Conscious or Not

Artificial intelligence algorithms will soon reach a point of rapid self-improvement that threatens our ability to control them and poses great potential risk to humanity

By Tamlyn Hunt on May 25, 2023

“The idea that this stuff could actually get smarter than people…. I thought it was way off…. Obviously, I no longer think that,” Geoffrey Hinton, one of Google's top artificial intelligence scientists, also known as “the godfather of AI,” said after he quit his job in April so that he can warn about the dangers of this technology.

He’s not the only one worried. A 2023 survey of AI experts found that 36 percent fear that AI development may result in a “nuclear-level catastrophe.” Almost 28,000 people have signed on to an open letter written by the Future of Life Institute, including Steve Wozniak, Elon Musk, the CEOs of several AI companies and many other prominent technologists, asking for a six-month pause or a moratorium on new advanced AI development.

As a researcher in consciousness, I share these strong concerns about the rapid development of AI, and I am a co-signer of the Future of Life open letter.

Why are we all so concerned? In short: AI development is going way too fast.

The key issue is the profoundly rapid improvement in conversing among the new crop of advanced "chatbots," or what are technically called “large language models” (LLMs). With this coming “AI explosion,” we will probably have just one chance to get this right.

If we get it wrong, we may not live to tell the tale. This is not hyperbole.

This rapid acceleration promises to soon result in “artificial general intelligence” (AGI), and when that happens, AI will be able to improve itself with no human intervention. It will do this in the same way that, for example, Google’s AlphaZero AI learned how to play chess better than even the very best human or other AI chess players in just nine hours from when it was first turned on. It achieved this feat by playing itself millions of times over.

A team of Microsoft researchers analyzing OpenAI’s GPT-4, which I think is the best of the new advanced chatbots currently available, said it had, "sparks of advanced general intelligence" in a new preprint paper.

In testing GPT-4, it performed better than 90 percent of human test takers on the Uniform Bar Exam, a standardized test used to certify lawyers for practice in many states. That figure was up from just 10 percent in the previous GPT-3.5 version, which was trained on a smaller data set. They found similar improvements in dozens of other standardized tests.

Most of these tests are tests of reasoning. This is the main reason why Bubeck and his team concluded that GPT-4 “could reasonably be viewed as an early (yet still incomplete) version of an artificial general intelligence (AGI) system.”

This pace of change is why Hinton told the New York Times: "Look at how it was five years ago and how it is now. Take the difference and propagate it forwards. That’s scary.” In a mid-May Senate hearing on the potential of AI, Sam Altman, the head of OpenAI called regulation “crucial.”

Once AI can improve itself, which may be not more than a few years away, and could in fact already be here now, we have no way of knowing what the AI will do or how we can control it. This is because superintelligent AI (which by definition can surpass humans in a broad range of activities) will—and this is what I worry about the most—be able to run circles around programmers and any other human by manipulating humans to do its will; it will also have the capacity to act in the virtual world through its electronic connections, and to act in the physical world through robot bodies.

This is known as the “control problem” or the “alignment problem” (see philosopher Nick Bostrom’s book Superintelligence for a good overview) and has been studied and argued about by philosophers and scientists, such as Bostrom, Seth Baum and Eliezer Yudkowsky, for decades now.

I think of it this way: Why would we expect a newborn baby to beat a grandmaster in chess? We wouldn’t. Similarly, why would we expect to be able to control superintelligent AI systems? (No, we won’t be able to simply hit the off switch, because superintelligent AI will have thought of every possible way that we might do that and taken actions to prevent being shut off.)

Here’s another way of looking at it: a superintelligent AI will be able to do in about one second what it would take a team of 100 human software engineers a year or more to complete. Or pick any task, like designing a new advanced airplane or weapon system, and superintelligent AI could do this in about a second.

Once AI systems are built into robots, they will be able to act in the real world, rather than only the virtual (electronic) world, with the same degree of superintelligence, and will of course be able to replicate and improve themselves at a superhuman pace.

Any defenses or protections we attempt to build into these AI “gods,” on their way toward godhood, will be anticipated and neutralized with ease by the AI once it reaches superintelligence status. This is what it means to be superintelligent.

We won’t be able to control them because anything we think of, they will have already thought of, a million times faster than us. Any defenses we’ve built in will be undone, like Gulliver throwing off the tiny strands the Lilliputians used to try and restrain him.

Some argue that these LLMs are just automation machines with zero consciousness, the implication being that if they’re not conscious they have less chance of breaking free from their programming. Even if these language models, now or in the future, aren’t at all conscious, this doesn’t matter. For the record, I agree that it’s unlikely that they have any actual consciousness at this juncture—though I remain open to new facts as they come in.

Regardless, a nuclear bomb can kill millions without any consciousness whatsoever. In the same way, AI could kill millions with zero consciousness, in a myriad ways, including potentially use of nuclear bombs either directly (much less likely) or through manipulated human intermediaries (more likely).

So, the debates about consciousness and AI really don’t figure very much into the debates about AI safety.

Yes, language models based on GPT-4 and many other models are already circulating widely. But the moratorium being called for is to stop development of any new models more powerful than 4.0—and this can be enforced, with force if required. Training these more powerful models requires massive server farms and energy. They can be shut down.

My ethical compass tells me that it is very unwise to create these systems when we know already we won’t be able to control them, even in the relatively near future. Discernment is knowing when to pull back from the edge. Now is that time.

We should not open Pandora’s box any more than it already has been opened.

This is an opinion and analysis article, and the views expressed by the author or authors are not necessarily those of Scientific American.

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Article written by Tamlyn Hunt and posted on the ScientificAmerican.com website.

Article reposted on Markethive by Jeffrey Sloe

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It’s too early to call a bullish rally in gold the Fed is still the biggest unknown

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It's too early to call a bullish rally in gold, the Fed is still the biggest unknown

The gold market will remain very sensitive to the Federal Reserve's rate outlook, so it is too premature to call a bullish rally in gold after prices gained more than $30 on the week, according to analysts.

Gold got a boost after June's U.S. inflation report showed price pressures rising at the slowest pace in two years. The U.S. CPI was up 3% last month from a year ago, while the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, was at 4.8%, both below estimates.

The August Comex gold futures last traded at $1,961.70, up just over $30 on the week, after firmly holding the $1,900 an ounce level.

"The fact that gold held above $1,900 despite everyone expecting the Fed to hike interest rates in July is a vote of confidence," Gainesville Coins precious metals expert Everett Millman told Kitco News. "The Fed will drive the gold market for the next few months. And higher for longer rates would be negative for the price. Gold's current reaction means that either all rate hikes are not priced in yet or maybe markets' expectations do not match reality."

The Fed is still planning on hiking rates at least twice this year, with market expectations for the July meeting pricing in a 96% chance of a 25-basis-point increase. The second rate hike is yet to be priced in, which is why analysts remain cautious about gold in the short term.

"If anything, people want to go bullish on gold on any feeble pretext, including the hope that the Fed will go accommodative quickly and end the tightening program," TD Securities global head of commodity strategy Bart Melek told Kitco News. "At this point, it is too early to get overly bullish."

Even though the inflation narrative is starting to look better, it is not a done deal, especially considering the spike in energy prices. "We have recently seen a significant rise in oil prices as OPEC continues to reduce supply. The big benefit we received from cheaper energy may reverse to some extent in the months to come," Melek warned.

Plus, it is not likely that the Fed will be quick to change its hawkish rhetoric as it impacts its credibility going forward. "I doubt that the Fed starts easing us as quickly as the market thinks. Data could surprise to the upside, and the Fed sticks to its guns. And that could be a problem for gold," Melek noted.

What the Fed does next is still a big mystery, Millman said, noting that it is difficult to predict how some of the lagging effects of such aggressive monetary policy tightening will affect broader markets.

The key question for markets is not by how much the Fed is yet to hike, but for how long will the rates remain elevated before the Fed starts to cut, Millman added.

"If they turn around and cut rates at the end of this year or beginning of next year, markets will have a strong reaction," he said. "It is important to know what the next step is — how long rates will stay high and when is the rate cut coming. That's what's keeping gold in place."

Based on previous statements, the Fed is likely to err on the side of tightening, which would mean rates will remain higher for longer, Millman noted. With inflation being elevated for 18 months above 2%, Fed Chair Powell believes markets need time below 2% to balance that out.

Gold price levels to watch

Melek described the latest move in gold as likely short-lived, with short-covering driving prices higher. "That is going to reverse to a great extent. The rally is too premature, and there are significant risks of unwinding," he said.

The immediate resistance is at $1,966 and $1,970, and support is at $1,930, $1,900, and then $1,896 an ounce, Melek added.

Millman said he is also not ready to move into the bullish camp yet. He sees the next big resistance at $1,975-80 and support at $1,900.

Next week's data

Monday: NY Empire State Manufacturing index

Tuesday: U.S. retail sales, U.S. industrial production, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr speaks

Wednesday: U.S. hosting starts and building permits

Thursday: U.S. jobless claims, Philly Fed manufacturing Index, U.S. existing home sales

By

Anna Golubova

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and silver

Tim Moseley

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Wall Street’s Money Game Puts Crypto Revolution At Risk

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Wall Street's Money Game Puts Crypto Revolution At Risk

Many people who believe in the potential of cryptocurrencies hope that Wall Street, the famous financial hub, will eagerly invest in the growing crypto market and enjoy the same profitable returns that individual traders have experienced whenever the value of cryptocurrencies has surged. However, this belief overlooks two crucial facts: firstly, Wall Street is already heavily involved in the cryptocurrency market, and secondly, it has no intention of injecting its capital to boost this volatile market.

The world of institutional finance has had numerous opportunities to capitalize on the cryptocurrency space. However, as its influence expands, the cryptocurrency market is transforming, potentially into something entirely different. Whether this transformation is intentional or an unintended consequence of its shortcomings, Wall Street may gradually undermine the essence of cryptocurrency itself.

This article explores the intricate dynamics between Wall Street and the crypto world, shedding light on the potential implications of the Wall Street money game in the crypto industry. Let's unravel the mysteries and better understand this ever-evolving landscape.

Wall Street Is Not On Your Side

The recent exposure of Wall Street's Bitcoin conspiracy has shed light on some alarming developments in the market. It all began with the BlackRock Bitcoin ETF application. BlackRock, a powerful asset manager known for its extensive control over various industries, including media and pharmaceuticals, has been implicated in bribery and political manipulation over the years. It is essential to remember that Wall Street and these major players are not interested in your financial freedom. They are anti-revolutionary and do not have your best interests at heart.

The news of BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF application is significant due to its massive influence as a $9.1 Trillion asset manager. Even a tiny portion of their funds could potentially buy up all the Bitcoin available on exchanges. However, BlackRock is not the only organization venturing into the Bitcoin ETF business. Fidelity, a $4.24 Trillion asset manager, and other major players are also interested in entering the market. These ETFs are expected to be backed by real Bitcoin and traded on stock exchanges.

The paperization of Bitcoin raises concerns as it will move more Bitcoin into the hands of stockbrokers, reducing the amount of Bitcoin available on the blockchain and resulting in fewer fees for miners in the long run. Long-term investors currently hold a significant portion of Bitcoin. BlackRock, Fidelity, Wisdom Tree, and Invesco, have all filed for Bitcoin ETF applications. These developments cannot be ignored.

Furthermore, we have EdX, an institutional-grade cryptocurrency exchange backed by Fidelity, Charles Schwab, and Ken Griffin's Citadel Securities. The pieces start to come together when we see the bigger picture. A crackdown on the cryptocurrency industry led by Gary Gensler, the head of the SEC, raises eyebrows. Gensler's previous affiliation with Goldman Sachs, a major player on Wall Street, suggests a conflict of interest. It appears that Wall Street is orchestrating a deliberate attack on its major competitors, such as Coinbase and Binance, while simultaneously preparing to launch its own cryptocurrency exchange.

The entry of Wall Street into Bitcoin is not a coincidence. It is a meticulously planned move to manipulate the markets for their benefit. Institutions like JPMorgan and BlackRock are experts in market manipulation, and their involvement in Bitcoin will undoubtedly affect its price. 

However, we must understand that inviting Wall Street into the cryptocurrency space comes with risks. They have a history of dismissing Bitcoin as a scam, and suddenly they are interested in Bitcoin. The agenda is clear; they aim to gain control over it and take surveillance to the next level. We can expect them to push for code changes in Bitcoin to exercise control, which organizations like Greenpeace have already discussed.

While the influx of ETF applications may seem exciting for regular consumers wanting to invest in Bitcoin, it comes at the cost of relinquishing the uniqueness of Bitcoin itself. Owning Bitcoin through Wall Street-backed ETFs means giving up control over your assets. The hope that these institutions will hold and redeem your Bitcoin in the future is not the vision that attracted many people to Bitcoin in the first place. If you genuinely believe in the principles of Bitcoin, buying and holding your own Bitcoin is crucial, securely stored in your personal wallet. Wall Street cannot be trusted with your financial sovereignty.


Image source: Wall Street Mojo

How Wall Street Can Potentially Harm Cryptocurrency

To understand how Wall Street can negatively impact cryptocurrency, let's delve into a concept called hypothecation. In simpler terms, hypothecation occurs when a company or firm pledges its equity shares as collateral to a lender. Here's an example to illustrate this: Imagine Company A needs $5 million, and Broker B agrees to lend them the money. In return, Company A offers $5 million worth of their securities as collateral to Broker B. This type of arrangement is known as hypothecation.

Now, here's where the potential problem arises. Rehypothecation comes into play when Broker B, the lender, reuses the assets received from Company A as collateral for their business activities. This practice allows Broker B to utilize the assets as a security for their transactions. In the traditional financial world, rehypothecation is relatively straightforward due to a few reasons.

Firstly, shares in the traditional financial system are not physically settled; ownership certificates represent them. This characteristic makes transferring ownership as an 'IOU' simple without physically moving the shares. Secondly, accounting and tax regulations permit the same asset to be attributed to different parties as long as each party records a distinct amount of debt on their balance sheets. However, this flexibility granted to banks and brokers increases the risk associated with counterparties involved in such a system.

Cryptocurrency, like Bitcoin and Ethereum, operates on decentralized networks that rely on blockchain technology. These digital currencies are not governed by centralized authorities like banks or governments. The underlying technology ensures transparency and trust in transactions by recording them on a shared, immutable ledger.

However, when Wall Street, with its established practices and financial mechanisms, enters the realm of cryptocurrency, it introduces potential threats. The concept of hypothecation and rehypothecation, which are prevalent in traditional finance, can pose risks to the stability and integrity of cryptocurrency.

One significant concern is the possibility of multiple parties claiming ownership of the same digital asset. Unlike traditional shares represented by certificates, cryptocurrency ownership is recorded and verified through complex cryptographic algorithms. If a broker were to hypothecate or rehypothecate digital assets without proper mechanisms in place, it could result in conflicting claims and disputes over ownership.

Moreover, the transparency and decentralization that define cryptocurrency could be compromised. Rehypothecation often involves leveraging assets for additional borrowing, which can introduce systemic risk and potentially lead to market manipulation. This practice could undermine the principles of fairness and equal opportunity that many proponents of cryptocurrency value.

The risk of counterparty failure increases with rehypothecation. In the traditional financial system, where banks and brokers hypothecate, and rehypothecate assets, the complexity of transactions and the interdependency among market participants heighten the risk of a domino effect if one party defaults. Such failures can have far-reaching consequences, including financial instability and loss of investor confidence.

The Implication Of Rehypothecation For The Crypto Industry 

There's an important issue to consider when discussing cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. Many of these digital currencies claim to have a system that ensures their security and reliability, such as a proof-of-work (PoW) or proof-of-stake (PoS) mechanism. However, these cryptocurrencies are often traded on centralized exchanges despite these claims.

Let's delve deeper into the problem. Imagine a scenario where a Bitcoin is rehypothecated multiple times as brokers and exchanges trade debt and collateral. In such a situation, who gets to claim ownership if there's a need for it? Who indeed possesses the cryptocurrency at the end of the day when multiple parties know the private key, or worse when no one does?

Cryptocurrency enthusiasts strongly believe in the idea that if you don't have control over your private key, you don't have control over your crypto assets. This means that if you don't directly manage and secure your private key, you can't truly claim ownership of your cryptocurrency.

Now, let's consider some potential problems that can arise. What if a broker goes bankrupt, and someone needs to be compensated? Or what if a hard fork happens, and someone needs to participate by voting with their stake in the cryptocurrency? In such cases, determining the rightful owner of the Bitcoin becomes exceptionally complicated due to the long chain of transactions involved. It becomes unclear who should be considered the valid owner, and this uncertainty creates a significant challenge.

Moreover, the current transient ownership model, where cryptocurrency ownership changes hands frequently, simply doesn't work well for assets recorded on a ledger. This flawed model can lead to multiple parties expecting compensation simultaneously, creating a chaotic situation. The risk of a complete breakdown in this scenario is alarming and could have devastating consequences.

One empirical example of the catastrophic consequence of rehypothecation in the crypto industry was the lucrative Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) “premium arbitrage,” which led to the demise of 3AC, Genesis, and Grayscale. Rehypothecation generated credit from assets and allowed multiple transactions to be collateralized by the same asset. This unstable chain of transactions supported by the same collateral was poorly understood and resulted in the collapse.


Image source: Hackernoon

Addressing these concerns and finding solutions to ensure the proper ownership and control of cryptocurrencies is crucial. The complex and convoluted nature of ownership in the current system poses significant risks that could undermine the stability and reliability of cryptocurrencies as a whole. Therefore, exploring alternative models and frameworks that can provide a more robust and secure ownership structure for digital assets is essential. By doing so, we can build a stronger foundation for the future of cryptocurrencies and protect investors from potential disasters.

Why Investors Are Eager For A Bitcoin ETF

The idea of a Bitcoin ETF has captured the imagination of cryptocurrency enthusiasts for a couple of important reasons. First, ETFs are built on a solid foundation of tangible assets, and second, they are seamlessly integrated into the traditional financial market through brokers. If a Bitcoin ETF were to become a reality, it would make Bitcoin much more accessible to everyday investors who may not have the patience or technical know-how to buy Bitcoin on cryptocurrency exchanges or manage a blockchain wallet. In simple terms, a Bitcoin ETF could be the key to achieving widespread adoption of Bitcoin.

The hope for a Bitcoin ETF received a glimmer of optimism in October 2021 with the launch of the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO) on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). However, it's important to note that this particular ETF is not directly tied to Bitcoin itself. Instead, it tracks the Bitcoin futures contracts offered by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), which are essentially bets on the future price of Bitcoin.

On the other hand, ETF proposals directly linked to Bitcoin from various companies have either been outrightly rejected, as was the case with early Bitcoin investors Cameron Winklevoss and Tyler Winklevoss or are still awaiting approval from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

Although there are opportunities for profit in the cryptocurrency market, and the industry has experienced a surge in popularity in recent years, there remain numerous uncertainties surrounding the future relationship between cryptocurrency and Wall Street and its broader acceptance among the investing public.

Many investors believe that the influx of Wall Street money might lead to more regulation, oversight, and accountability in the crypto space, which could ultimately benefit users and investors.

In the end, the impact of Wall Street money on cryptocurrencies will depend on how regulators, policymakers, investors, and users find the right balance between risk and reward, trust and verification, centralization and decentralization, and innovation and stability.

 

 

About: Prince Ibenne. (Nigeria) Prince is passionate about helping people understand the crypto-verse through his easily digestible articles. He is an enthusiastic supporter of blockchain technology and cryptocurrency. Find me at my Markethive Profile Page | My Twitter Account | and my LinkedIn Profile.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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US Government Moves BTC Valued At 300M Prompting Liquidation Fears

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US Government Moves BTC Valued At $300M, Prompting Liquidation Fears

By Brenda Ngari – July 12, 2023

The United States government has once again moved Bitcoin tied to Silk Road, the now-shuttered darknet marketplace.

Two wallets belonging to the U.S. Justice Department moved over $300 million worth of Bitcoin to two new addresses on Wednesday morning. The transfer was conducted in three different transactions, as shown by on-chain data from Blockchain.com.

$300 Million In BTC

Some of Silk Road’s bitcoins are on the move once again.

Fed-controlled wallets sent a total of 9,825 Bitcoin, equating to approximately $301 million. Wednesday’s transaction follows an even bigger transaction in March when roughly $1 billion worth of BTC was transferred, a move that prompted a drop across all top cryptocurrencies.

The U.S. authorities have control of BTC that’s been confiscated from bad actors and occasionally move it around. Previously, they’ve done so because they plan to sell it — but not all the time.

The latest transfer has stoked investor fears that intense sell pressures could drive down the price of Bitcoin. BTC dipped after the transaction was sent. The premier cryptocurrency was, at the time of publication trading hands for $30,327.04 per coin, a 0.8% 24-hour drop.

The Silk Road Bitcoin

Feds seized more than 50,000 bitcoins in November 2022 from hacker James Zhong, who pleaded guilty to wire fraud over the hack of these digital assets from the Ross Ulbricht-run Silk Road back in 2012.

Ross Ulbricht is the proprietor of the Silk Road online black market, which was used to mostly buy and sell illicit goods such as weapons, drugs, and stolen credit card information and primarily used bitcoin as a payment method before authorities closed it in 2014. Ulbricht was sentenced to life in federal prison back in 2015 in a high-profile case. He’s currently serving a double life sentence plus 40 years without the possibility of parole.

Court filings contained details of related BTC wallets, allowing online sleuths to track these wallet addresses. Feds have been selling the seized BTC bit by bit. After selling the crypto in March, the U.S. authorities said they intended to dump the remaining bitcoin in four more batches throughout 2023.

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The original article written by Brenda Ngari and posted on ZyCrypto.com.

Article reposted on Markethive by Jeffrey Sloe

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Is The Bank of America Targeting Coinbase Customers? CEO Brian Armstrong Sparks Debate

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Is The Bank of America Targeting Coinbase Customers? CEO Brian Armstrong Sparks Debate

By SIMON NJENGA — 14 July 2023

Is Bank of America Targeting Coinbase Customers

  • Bank of America will allocate $100 million towards restitution for affected consumers and pay $150 million in civil penalties.
  • Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong responded to a tweet where someone mentioned that their Bank of America accounts had been closed because of transactions with Coinbase.

On Tuesday, Bank of America (BAC.N) reached a settlement wherein they agreed to pay fines and compensation totaling $250 million. The settlement arises from allegations that the bank engaged in a systematic practice of double-charging customers fees, failing to provide promised credit card benefits, and opening unauthorized accounts.

As part of the settlement, Bank of America will allocate $100 million towards restitution for affected consumers and pay $150 million in civil penalties. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) asserted that the bank violated various laws, which commenced in 2012.

According to a statement by the CFPB, Bank of America generated substantial profits by imposing multiple fees on customers who lacked sufficient funds in their accounts. This practice reportedly occurred from February 2018 to February 2022. Regulators argued that consumers were unaware that each declined transaction would result in a $35 fee, as such expectations were unreasonable and unclear.

Bank of America responded with a statement revealing that it voluntarily eliminated or reduced various fees in the previous year. The CFPB has taken action against what it refers to as “junk fees,” including overdraft and non-sufficient fund fees, claiming that lenders unjustly charge customers for banking services.

Bank of America Fails to Deliver Promised Rewards to Credit Card Holders

The CFPB revealed that Bank of America, headquartered in Charlotte, North Carolina, neglected to fulfill its commitment to provide cash rewards and bonus points to tens of thousands of credit card holders.

As part of the settlement, Bank of America agreed to pay penalties amounting to $90 million to the CFPB and $60 million to the OCC. Furthermore, the bank committed to providing regulators with updates on its progress in ensuring compliance over one year.

In a separate matter, Bank of America’s financial advisory division, Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith, has reached a settlement requiring them to pay $12 million in penalties to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and Financial Industry Regulatory Authority. This penalty stems from their failure to submit numerous suspicious activity reports to regulators between January 2009 and November 2019.

The issue was discovered by Merrill in 2019, as indicated by the SEC’s order. In response, the bank issued a statement acknowledging the matter and confirming that they reported it to the regulators. They further stated that they have since improved their process and training to ensure the appropriate filing of these reports in the future.

CEO Brian Armstrong Addresses Bank of America Account Closures

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong responded to a tweet where someone mentioned that their Bank of America accounts had been closed because of transactions with Coinbase. Armstrong expressed his concern by replying to the tweet and asking if any other Bank of America customers were experiencing a similar issue. He concluded his response by stating that such actions were not acceptable. This comes at a time when there are rumours that he deleted some of his old tweets.

Article written by Simon Njenga, and posted on the Crypto News Flash website.

Article reposted on Markethive by Jeffrey Sloe

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Gold silver boosted on notions Fed tightening cycle near an end

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Gold, silver boosted on notions Fed tightening cycle near an end

Gold prices are modestly up and hit a three-week high, while silver prices sharply up and hit two-month high in midday U.S. trading Thursday. Another tame U.S. inflation report today has the marketplace thinking the Federal Reserve is likely nearer the end of its interest-rate-hiking cycle. That's bullish for commodity markets, including the metals. August gold was last up $3.30 at $1,965.00 and September silver was up $0.64 at $24.955.

The marketplace is basking in the glow of tame U.S. inflation reports that came out Wednesday and Thursday mornings. Today's producer price index for June also came in slightly lower than expected, following Wednesday tamer consumer price index for June.

Said analyst Nigel Green of the deVere Group: "The U.S. is now likely to pull off the perfect "soft landing,' with the world's largest economy avoiding a recession as the latest inflation data comes in cooler than expected. The U.S. CPI data raises hopes that the Federal Reserve is going to be able to bring down inflation without steering the U.S. economy into a recession. The battle on rising prices is being won, as the data suggests, meaning the pressure is off the Fed for future rate hikes. Cooling inflation and a strong and resilient labor market suggest that no recession will come in 2023.” That's a bullish scenario for commodity markets, suggesting better demand in the coming months.

Asian and European stock markets were mixed to firmer in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are firmer at midday.

In overnight news, China's exports in June fell a worse-than-expected 12.4%, year-on-year, following a drop of 7.5% reported in May. Imports in June dropped a worse-than-expected 6.8%, year-on-year. That dour news from the world's second-largest economy did not put a damper on raw commodity markets today, but it may in the near term.

  Silver prices are up 4%; Is this the start of the rally? TD Securities says it is still three months away

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index solidly lower and hitting a 15-month low. That's bullish for the raw commodity sector, as most raw commodities on world trade markets are priced in U.S. dollars. The weaker USDX makes those commodities less expensive to purchase in non-U.S. currency. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up and trading around $76.00 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching around 3.8%.

Technically, August gold futures prices hit a three-week high again today. Bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field but the bulls have momentum. A nine-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart has been negated and prices are now in a fledgling uptrend. Bulls' next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $2,000.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the June low of $1,900.60. First resistance is seen at $1,975.00 and then at $1,985.00. First support is seen at $1,950.00 and then at Wednesday's low of $1,937.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

September silver futures prices hit a two-month high today. The silver bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and have momentum. A three-week-old price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the April high of $26.645. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $23.00. First resistance is seen at $25.00 and then at $25.50. Next support is seen at $24.50 and then at today's low of $24.31. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

September N.Y. copper closed up 900 points at 394.30 cents today. Prices closed near the session high and closed at a 2.5-month high close today. The copper bulls have gained the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the April high of 418.25 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 368.30 cents. First resistance is seen at the June high of 396.40 cents and then at 400.00 cents. First support is seen at today's low of 384.20 cents and then at this week's low of 374.25 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

By

Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and silver

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Bitcoin’s Time to Shine: BRICS Nations Plan to Replace US Dollar with Gold-Backed Trading Currency Fueling Bitcoin’s Potential

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Bitcoin’s Time to Shine: BRICS Nations Plan to Replace US Dollar with Gold-Backed Trading Currency, Fueling Bitcoin’s Potential

By GODFREY BENJAMIN — 11 July 2023

Bitcoin's Time to Shine

  • Members of the BRICS alliance are set to introduce a Gold-backed token as alternative to the US Dollar.
  • The move from these alliance can have a significant upside for Bitcoin.

Countries within the BRICS alliance (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) are planning the release of a gold-backed digital currency that could contest the dominance of the United States dollar in global settlements.

The launch is expected to be unveiled during the 15th BRICS Summit in Johannesburg, South Africa which is to be held in August. The initiative has received support from many other countries that are interested in joining the economic alliance.

Precisely, the Russian Embassy in Kenya has equally released a tweet to promote the new development. The initiative is also supported by Alexander Babakov, Deputy Chairman of the State Duma who recently highlighted the practical and promising nature of digital payments.

For a long time and across many nations, there has been a strong motivation to dethrone the U.S. dollar in global markets. The fear of weaponization through the imposition of sanctions has made many nations quite resentful towards the dollar.

This Dollar antagonism gave rise to a renewed pursuit by members of the BRICS alliance to find alternative options for cross-border payments which would mitigate the effect of such sanctions. Leslie Maasdrop, the Vice President of the New Development Bank pointed out that the BRICS alliance is made up of countries that each have emerging markets that have different economies with very unique features.

Ultimately, member nations of the BRICS are pushing efforts to boost their financial sovereignty and insulate themselves from the impact of Western sanctions.

Article written by Godfrey Benjamin, and posted on the Crypto News Flash.

Article reposted on Markethive by Jeffrey Sloe

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