Gold bulls on parade, S&P setup for a black Monday?
Monday, I wrote that my base case for the S&P is that prices are headed to the 200-week average. The breach of the trendline is turning out to be significant; we can’t tell the future, but we can let the trendline be a guide.
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Even now, prior to prices getting to the 200-week moving average (if they even do), I am anticipating the flip to the long side. My feeling is that time will coincide with despondent sentiment. But I don’t think we are there yet, and the last few days of panic can be brutal (as gold bugs may know).
Beyond the bullish stance I have maintained on stacking gold, on Tuesday, I suggested a trade to short Bitcoin and long gold, citing the XAU/BTC ratio as a basis; that trade is playing out. As I write, gold is hitting the 2k spot, up $35+ from Tuesday morning. Below is a 2-hour chart; regular readers should be more than familiar with triangles breaking to the upside…
Bitcoin trades around $33,500 right now, down from $35,000 Tuesday morning. Still, as I also wrote Tuesday, I remain bullish on Bitcoin in the longer term and would be looking to close the short and add to a stack at around 31800, still as the base case.
By
Jonathan Da Silva
Contributing to kitco.com
Tim Moseley