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Gold prices will set new record highs in the second half of 2024 – Metals Focus

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Gold prices will set new record highs in the second half of 2024 – Metals Focus

Gold prices will set new record highs in the second half of 2024 – Metals Focus teaser image

Gold prices are once again flirting with resistance near $2,400 an ounce, and one research firm expects that it's only a matter of time before the precious metal sets fresh all-time highs.

In their weekly note published Thursday, analysts at Metals Focus said that the eventual monetary policy easing from the Federal Reserve will drive gold prices higher in the second half of the year.

“Later this year, we expect prices will rise again, with a new all-time high likely,” said Neil Meader, Director of Gold and Silver at Metals Focus. “After all, the recent $2,450 peak is lower, in real terms, than the 1980 one, which would have been around $3,000 in today’s prices.”

With a new record peak in sight, Metals Focus expects gold prices to average around $2,250 an ounce for the year, a 16% increase from last year’s record average price.

The comments come as disappointing economic data and growing slack in the U.S. labor market have raised market expectations for the U.S. central bank to start the new easing cycle in September.

Even if the Federal Reserve maintains its aggressive monetary policy stance, Metals Focus does not see much downside for gold through the rest of the year.

The analysts at the UK-based precious metals research firm noted several factors supporting gold’s breakout rally this year, even as the Federal Reserve has hesitated to lower interest rates.

Insatiable appetite from global central banks, a dire global fiscal outlook, geopolitical uncertainty, and China’s weakening economy have all boosted gold prices, helping them to weather headwinds generated by persistent strength in the U.S. dollar and higher bond yields.

“Whether they start this year or next, US rate cuts are coming,” Meader said. “It’s also hard to see the Middle East and Ukraine conflicts being resolved any time soon, and US/China tensions remain high. Lastly, as physical markets become more accustomed to higher prices, gold’s fundamentals should improve.”

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Neils Christensen

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

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Franklin Templeton Eyes Altcoin-Focused Crypto Fund

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$1.5 Trillion Asset Manager Franklin Templeton Explores New Crypto Fund For Solana, XRP, Shiba Inu

By Brenda Ngari – June 6, 2024

$1.64 trillion Wall Street asset manager Franklin Templeton is mulling the launch of a new private fund that would invest in tokens other than Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH).

Franklin Templeton Eyes Altcoin-Focused Crypto Fund

According to a June 6 report from The Information citing anonymous individuals with knowledge of the plans, the private fund will target institutional investors and will be dedicated to altcoins like Solana, XRP, Shiba Inu, Cardano, and the like.

Franklin Templeton is no stranger to the crypto ecosystem. The Wall Street titan forayed into the digital assets world in 2018. It introduced a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in mid-January and has also applied to offer a similar offering for the industry’s second-largest cryptocurrency, Ethereum. In fact, Franklin Templeton was recently the first issuer to announce its sponsor fees for its spot ETH ETF in its updated S-1 statement.

“We are excited about ETH and its ecosystem. Despite the midlife crisis it’s recently experienced, we see a bright future with many strong tailwinds to push the Ethereum ecosystem forward,” the company previously stated in an X post.

By venturing beyond the top two major crypto assets, the asset management firm is signaling comfort with the class of tokens that the SEC has long deemed unregistered securities.

While the report does not indicate which altcoins in particular would be included in the new crypto fund’s basket, Franklin Templeton has publicly hailed the growth of the Solana network in 2024, commending Anatoly Yakovenko’s vision of “a single atomic state machine as a powerful use case of decentralized blockchains.”

Staking Rewards And Global Expansion

Franklin’s Thursday announcement comes after the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s shocking approval of key regulatory filings related to the spot Ether ETF applications in late May — despite the top financial cop having reportedly classed Ethereum internally as an unregistered security for more than a year.

Notably, staking rewards were not included in the proposed Ether funds when the SEC gave its regulatory blessing to the first stage of applications last month. However, Franklin Templeton is considering offering investors staking rewards with the new altcoin fund.

Although Franklin Templeton’s spot BTC ETF has not been as successful as the financial instruments offered by peers BlackRock and Fidelity, the report noted that the company is keen to grow its crypto assets business outside the US.

DISCLAIMER The views expressed in the article are wholly those of the author and do not represent those of, nor should they be attributed to, ZyCrypto. This article is not meant to give financial advice. Please carry out your own research before investing in any of the various cryptocurrencies available.

The original article written by Brenda Ngari and posted on Zycrypto.com.

Article reposted on Markethive by Jeffrey Sloe

** Loans, secure funding for business projects in the USA and around the world. Learn more about USA & International Financing at Commercial Funding International. **

Tim Moseley

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Have You Lost Touch With Reality? Get Going on Creating a Better Future for Yourself

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Have You Lost Touch With Reality? Get Going on Creating a Better Future for Yourself

Have you lost touch with reality
 

Have You Lost Touch With Reality? Has someone ever advised you to move on from the past? When others want to encourage you to move on with your life, they often say things like this. Is it really as simple as it sounds?

It may not be as easy as it seems, particularly if there are strong motivations to hold on to the past. You may find it difficult to go on with life because of significant memories and experiences from your past, such as a tragic upbringing, a sad breakup, the loss of a loved one, etc.
 

But it's also possible that you're clinging to items that have lost all relevance to your life.
 

To truly enjoy the splendor of the here and now, you must release attachment to the past. Just deciding to do it and getting going is the hardest part of changing anything.
A little, healthy introspection is a good place to start.
Take some time out to compare your present situation and the emotions it evokes with what it could be. Things might get better, but very slowly, if you don't do anything. A better, more fulfilling existence can become your reality if you just do anything.

 

Here is the way to proceed.
 

Methods for Releasing the Past
Stay completely focused on the here and now.
Let go of the past and go on. No matter how much you try, the past will always remain fixed in place. Actually, all you can do is strive to live each day to the fullest. Act as though today were your final. Paying close attention in the here and now will leave you with less mental space for dwelling on the past.
 

There can be no place for optimism if you dwell too much on the past. Whether you want to keep injuring yourself or welcome the new day, which may be full of joy, is totally up to you.
Make a firm decision to stop worrying and start living your best life.
You must resolve to "let it go" and "move on" if you want it to succeed. Things will keep going in circles unless you do this, and you risk being trapped in the past once more. Take action after making a decision that will benefit you and your future.
 

ecosystem for entrepreneurs

Allow space for mercy.
 

It could be challenging to put behind you the wrongdoings of those who have gone before you. An important first step is to forgive others and get over your anger. The healing that comes from forgiving another person is more important.
Just because you can forgive someone doesn't mean you condone their actions. Even when you know they messed up, you can still choose to forgive them. Doing so is most assuredly not an indication of fragility. What this means is that you are ready to accept the present moment for what it is and go forward with your life.
Keep your distance from the person.
Stay detached from people and places that bind you to your present situation and frame of mind. Removing yourself from a toxic environment or toxic people can help alleviate depression. To aid with the "letting go" process, it can be helpful to put some mental or physical distance between yourself and the things that are holding you back.
 

The secret is to accept.
 

To go on, you must accept your history, including the individuals who were a part of it. No one of these things has to constitute the crux of your identity. Remake yourself, learn to accept yourself, and then break free.
It is up to you to ensure your own pleasure.
You have no right to hold another person responsible for how you feel. In doing so, you risk letting another person emotionally control you to an unhealthy degree. When you accept full responsibility for your emotional state, you'll experience an overwhelming surge of joy and strength. Regardless of the circumstances, your attitude is the most important factor.
 

Consider your feelings.
 

You need to be aware of the value that your emotions provide in order to evaluate them. Think back on it if you have any pleasant, upbeat memories. Stay away from the past if it's bringing you nothing but negativity and misery in the present. Swap it out for a more reasonable one.
 

Contribute in some way.
Helping other people and going above and beyond for them might make you feel good about yourself. Getting in touch with your authentic self is facilitated by this method. Smiling, greeting someone, or donating to a good cause are all great ways to brighten someone's (and your own) day. You may change your outlook for the better and make a lasting difference in the lives of those around you by performing these small acts of kindness.
Have You Lost Touch With Reality?
I hope this might assist you throughout the time when you are trying to move on. It will all be worthwhile if you put in the work. It is within your reach; here's to a better today and tomorrow.
 

Tim Moseley

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Gold Price News: Gold Falls Back Below 2330 An Ounce

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Gold Price News: Gold Falls Back Below $2,330 An Ounce

Gold News

Market Analysis

Gold prices fell back on Tuesday, giving up Monday’s gains, as the US dollar rebounded from a two-month low seen the previous day.

Gold prices fell as low as $2,317 an ounce on Tuesday, before edging back up to $2,325 an ounce later in the session. That was down sharply compared with around $2,351 in late deals on Monday.

KAU/USD 1-hourly Kinesis Exchange

The sharp downward reversal came as the US dollar rebounded against other major currencies on Tuesday, making gold more expensive for buyers in other currencies, and weighing on demand. The US dollar had hit more than a two-month low against the euro on Monday, but found a firmer footing on Tuesday.

 

In addition, US factory orders figures for April came in on Tuesday showing a 0.7% increase compared with March, and slightly above market expectations of a 0.6% gain. Any signs of a stronge-than-expected economy suggest the need for central banks to maintain higher interest rates, which tends to be bearish for non-yield-bearing assets like precious metals.

On the geopolitical front, the US expects that Israel will accept a ceasefire deal with Palestinian militant group Hamas if it too approves the agreement, a White House official was quoted as saying this week. The deal, which would start with a six-week halt to hostilities, would help pave the way for a permanent end to the conflict, which has injected a risk premium into precious metals markets.

Looking ahead, the markets will be watching out for Wednesday’s US ISM Services PMI figures for May, for the latest reading on the state of the economy. Also of interest will be the European Central Bank’s expected interest rate decision on Thursday, which is widely expected to be a 25-basis point cut to 4.25%. The ECB in April maintained interest rates at record-high levels of 4.5% for a fifth consecutive time.

Frank Watson

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

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Gold’s attractiveness to criminals forces market participants to shoulder the AML-KYC burden

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Gold’s attractiveness to criminals forces market participants to shoulder the AML-KYC burden

Gold's attractiveness to criminals forces market participants to shoulder the AML-KYC burden teaser image

The biggest gold-smuggling bust in Hong Kong’s history has brought the challenges of detecting illegal movements and transactions of precious metals into sharp relief, according to a June 2 report from consulting firm Alvarez and Marshall.

“On 27 March 2024, the Hong Kong Customs and Excise Department made its largest ever gold-smuggling bust — approximately 146kg, with an estimated market value of HKD 84 million — at the Hong Kong International Airport,” the report stated. “The gold was not smuggled as ingots or jewelry with serial numbers as one might expect, but was disguised as parts for air compressors.”

Authors Henry Chambers and Benjamin Teo wrote in ‘Following the Midas Trail – Laundering Money Through Gold and Precious Metals’ that cases such as this one raise an important question: “Can forensic practitioners trace the movement of luxury items, such as physical gold, and how are these valuable items controlled?”

“Money laundering is the process of making illegally obtained gains appear “clean,” and typically follows a three-stage process — placement, layering, and integration,” they said. “Because of the scrutiny given to bank transactions, criminals may turn to gold or other precious metals when they need to launder money.”

Chambers and Teo argue that precious metals are attractive assets for criminals who wish to conceal the origins of any illegally obtained money, using the process outlined in the following diagram:

The authors ask whether it is possible for forensic investigators such as themselves to trace the movement of illicit funds through the movement of gold.

“The international Financial Action Task Force (FATF) designates dealers in precious metals and precious stones, amongst others, as Designated Non-Financial Business Professionals (DNFBPs) and recommends implementing a risk-based anti-money laundering (AML) approach in these industries,” they wrote. “In this light, since 1 April 2023, the Hong Kong Customs and Excise Department has commenced a registration regime for dealers in precious metals and stones.”

The regime applies to businesses involved in “trading […] exporting or importing precious metals, precious stones or precious products; Manufacturing, refining or carrying out any value-adding work on precious metals, precious stones or precious products; Issuing, redeeming or trading in precious-asset-backed-instruments; or Acting as an intermediary in any of the above.”

The first step in the use of gold for money laundering is placement, they said.

“Essentially, in Hong Kong the use of cash to purchase gold valued above HKD 120,000 in a single transaction or several seemingly linked transactions triggers customer due diligence requirements,”the authors said. “The dealer is then obliged to obtain and verify information such as the beneficial owner’s identity. Based on the assessed risk, the dealer may also need to understand the customer’s source of wealth/funds or other additional information.”

“On gold bars, generally, details of its owner can be verified through engravings that detail its weight, purity and manufacturer, along with an accompanying certificate of authenticity,” Chambers and Teo note. “If the gold bar is sold by an intermediate dealer and not the manufacturer, the intermediate dealer will be subject to local AML requirements and will likely have records of its customers.”

Gold bars can also be “embossed with kinegrams or security holograms” similar to those found on modern banknotes. “These security devices provide an additional layer of comfort with regard to the authenticity of a gold bar’s declared weight, purity and serial number,” they said. “This, in turn, provides comfort as to the true identity of the buyer.”

The next step in the laundering process is layering, where the gold is moved through multiple transactions and jurisdictions to cover up the trail.

“If gold is purchased or sold from or to a non-reputable dealer, or over-the-counter from or to another individual, its subsequent movement may be difficult to track, especially if its serial number, security features and certificate of authenticity have been tampered with,” the authors wrote. “Tracking can be further complicated as large amounts of gold and other precious metals can easily travel between jurisdictions undetected in suitcases or pockets or openly in the form of jewelry.”

Once the gold has been moved through these steps and locations, the criminals will attempt different ways of fulfilling the final stage of the money-laundering process, integration, where the value is merged with other legitimate assets or funds.   from location to location,

“[C]riminals may try to liquidate the gold at other dealerships,” Chambers and Teo said. “Reputable dealers will care about the authenticity of the gold, and criminals may find liquidizing gold bars with no serial numbers to be relatively difficult. However, less scrupulous dealers in other countries may take the opportunity to undercut the seller, allowing the criminals to cash out their criminal proceeds as clean money.”

They said that these jurisdictions “may not have effective AML regulations, and less scrupulous dealers will not keep records of their buyers and sellers,” which makes tracking the flow of assets far more difficult.

“Alternatively, as in the Hong Kong Customs and Excise Department’s case, gold can also be easily melted by money launderers and remolded into other items or jewelry to sell,” the authors wrote. “This process necessarily removes the serial numbers, hence hiding the gold’s origins, and may allow for easier integration due to the lower absolute value of each item. This jewelry can subsequently be sold to customers directly or to other intermediaries.”

Chambers and Teo note that a large part of the AML-KYC burden in the present-day precious metals market system falls to the DNFBPs.

“As mentioned above, the FATF and the Hong Kong Customs and Excise Department issue guidelines on how gold dealers, manufacturers and intermediaries should adopt a risk-based approach and implement customer due diligence, ongoing monitoring, screening and staff training processes, as well as file suspicious transaction reports when necessary,” they said. “This is not unlike measures that the Hong Kong Monetary Authority requires financial institutions to carry out when dealing with customers. Therefore, as in banking, this puts the emphasis of maintaining a clean industry on its gatekeepers.”

“The attractiveness of gold as both an asset and as a vessel for money laundering not only requires its gatekeepers to remain vigilant, but also protect the market’s reputation by understanding its patterns and trends,” they concluded. “It is in these stakeholders’ interests to engage with the regulators and enforce relevant requirements, to avoid prosecution and pecuniary penalties, to maintain their status as a reputable business, and to prevent criminals from laundering gold.”

 Ernest Hoffman

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

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Bitcoin Price At 100000 Still Possible in this Cycle

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Bitcoin Price At $100,000 Still Possible in this Cycle, On-Chain Analysis Reveals

By Olivia Brooke – June 4, 2024

The apex cryptocurrency remains in view, with analysts and investors fixating on price movements. Interestingly, Bitcoin at $100,000 is a hot conversation among market participants.

An analyst published under CryptoQuant has made an incredibly bullish analysis, validating the bullish outlook shared by proponents. Per his observation, Bitcoin is still on track to tap new highs this cycle, and $100,000 is still very much attainable.

Citing market indicators and historical data, the analyst outlines the multiple bullish possibilities for Bitcoin in the near term.

With a keen focus on the MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) indicator, which signals Bitcoin price tops and bottoms, the analyst explains that an MVRV value under 2 indicates an ongoing accumulation zone, further revealing that prices do not reflect actual value.

On the other hand, an MVRV value above 2 is a sign that the market is well on its way to hitting a new price peak.

Citing previous cycle patterns, the analyst observed that a value above 3.5 or higher indicated a peak in price. Notably, market players typically begin a slow exit around this time.

However, with the current MVRV value sitting at 2.3, the price of Bitcoin is still poised to soar significantly until it hits a fair value, the analyst asserted.

“Even if the price drops, it’s a new opportunity to reinforce. Exiting should only start when the indicator approaches a value of 3. This means we are still somewhat far from the peak, and the price will achieve a new high in this cycle, which could be above $100k.” He added.

Bitcoin is attracting new investors, increasing the accumulation

Fundamental factors also seem to strengthen technical indicators. As Bitcoin and Ethereum have experienced price stability these past few days, more investors have shown interest in both assets, and the number of new participating accumulation addresses has reportedly soared over the past month.

At report time, Bitcoin trades for $68,959. Although market players had received Bitcoin’s stagnancy around the $69,000 price level positively, the asset retreated as losses piled up over the last 24 hours.

While leading altcoins like ETH outperform Bitcoin’s daily performance, a handful of altcoins remain in the red zone. The week ahead remains crucial for Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market.

DISCLAIMER The views expressed in the article are wholly those of the author and do not represent those of, nor should they be attributed to, ZyCrypto. This article is not meant to give financial advice. Please carry out your own research before investing in any of the various cryptocurrencies available.

The original article written by Olivia Brooke and posted on ZyCrypto.com.

Article reposted on Markethive by Jeffrey Sloe

** Loans, secure funding for business projects in the USA and around the world. Learn more about USA & International Financing at Commercial Funding International. **

Tim Moseley

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Gold Futures Regain Momentum as Economic Concerns Intensify

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Gold Futures Regain Momentum as Economic Concerns Intensify

Gold futures found renewed strength on Monday, closing back above the crucial 50-day moving average, as economic data fueled expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve later this year.

Friday’s close took gold futures to its lowest price point since hitting the record high of $2477.10, and a record close of $2461.40 on Monday, May 20. What followed was a dramatic and strong three-day price decline reaching a low of $2351 on Thursday, May 23. Between Wednesday, May 22, and Thursday the 23rd, gold declined just over $88 per troy ounce and consolidated trading sideways until gold traded to its low last Friday.

This recovery was driven by a weaker U.S. dollar, which declined 0.53% to 104.09, its lowest level since April 9.

The first signs of a potential resurgence in gold prices was largely attributed to mounting concerns over the state of the U.S. economy. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that U.S. manufacturing activity slowed for the second consecutive month in May, with new goods orders dropping at the fastest pace in nearly two years.

This data point, coupled with a moderation in inflation as indicated by the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index report released on Friday, has bolstered the notion that the Federal Reserve may implement one or two rate cuts this year to support the economy.

Historically, gold has been viewed as a safe-haven asset during periods of economic uncertainty and low interest rates, as it tends to perform well in such environments. The recent data releases have reignited optimism among investors that the Fed's aggressive rate hikes aimed at curbing inflation may have achieved their desired effect, paving the way for a potential shift in monetary policy later in the year.

According to Reuters, "U.S. manufacturing activity slowed for a second straight month in May as new goods orders dropped by the most in nearly two years, but a measure of input inflation fell back from the highest since mid-2022, a monthly survey showed on Monday."

The recent downturn in gold prices, which saw the precious metal dip below its 50-day moving average for the first time since late February, has been attributed to fluctuating expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve's rate decisions. However, the latest economic data has reignited bullish sentiment in the gold market, as investors anticipate a potential easing of monetary policy in the coming months.

As the Federal Reserve continues to navigate the delicate balance between supporting economic growth and managing inflationary pressures, the performance of gold will likely remain closely tied to the central bank's policy decisions and the broader economic landscape.

Kitco Media

Gary Wagner

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

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100 oz of gold per Bitcoin? Peter Brandt says it’s inevitable

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100 oz. of gold per Bitcoin? Peter Brandt says it’s inevitable

Financial news headlines saw an explosion of comparisons between Bitcoin (BTC) and gold following the launch of the first spot BTC exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the U.S. and the parallel rallies of both assets to new all-time highs that followed.

But over the past couple of months, chatter about the topic has quieted down as Bitcoin entered consolidation while gold surged to another record high. According to Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone, on a relative basis, the surge in BTC price didn’t exceed the peaks it reached versus gold and the S&P 500 in 2021.

“The January US #ETF launches set records for inflows, enhancing Bitcoin's status as a leading indicator, and the hangover may have implications for risk assets,” McGlone tweeted. “It was a near-perfect storm for the benchmark crypto to make new highs in 1Q, but #Bitcoin didn't exceed peaks vs. #gold and the S&P 500 from 2021.”

“Highly volatile and speculative, the 24/7-traded crypto was rising vs. gold the last time the S&P 500 e-mini future crossed above its 50-week moving average in November, but this time the Bitcoin/gold cross is falling,” he added.

Despite this, most analysts agree that the launch of the first spot BTC ETFs has been a monumental success, with all the ETFs combined surpassing $50 billion in assets under management in record time, taking just 57 days to do what it took gold ETFs 5 years to accomplish.

Looking at the ETFs individually, the performance of BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) stands out as it became the fastest ETF in history to reach $20 billion in assets under management.

After surpassing the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) ETF in AUM earlier this week, IBIT is now targeting the iShares Gold ETF (IAU), which currently holds roughly $29 billion in AUM.

According to Nate Geraci, president of the ETF Store, IBIT could achieve that feat before the end of 2024.

While many analysts have argued that there is room in investor portfolios for both gold and Bitcoin as both offer protection against excessive money printing and currency debasement, data provided by Kaiko shows that the correlation between gold and BTC remains below the 2022 highs, suggesting investors still hold a differing view of the two assets, and Bitcoin may deliver more upside.

“Bitcoin’s 60-day correlation with safe-haven gold has been increasing in April, nearing a yearly high as of last week,” Kaiko said. “However, it remains significantly below its 2022 highs of nearly 50%.”

“Gold has rallied in recent months due to strong central bank demand, even as global gold ETFs have experienced outflows,” they added. “Gold ETF holdings dropped to 3,079 tons in April, the lowest level since February 2020.”

“In contrast, Bitcoin has been primarily driven by ETF demand,” Kaiko said. “Despite Bitcoin’s market cap of $1.3tn remaining low compared to gold’s $16tn, there is significant room for growth. This low correlation and potential for growth boost Bitcoin’s appeal as a portfolio diversifier.”
And according to legendary trader Peter Brandt, while it currently requires around 29 ounces of gold to purchase one Bitcoin, that number could increase to 100 over the next two years depending on how things develop in the markets.

By Jordan Finneseth

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

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The Fourth Bitcoin Halving is done How Has It Stacked Up Historically? What can you expect in the coming months?

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The Fourth Bitcoin Halving is done. How Has It Stacked Up Historically? What can you expect in the coming months? 

The Bitcoin halving, a highly anticipated and pivotal event in the cryptocurrency industry, has finally taken place. As history has demonstrated, when the supply of new BTC is reduced while demand remains steady or increases, Bitcoin tends to reach record levels, significantly impacting the entire cryptocurrency market.

The Bitcoin halving event has sparked concerns about its potential impact on Bitcoin miners, which could, in turn, affect the value of the cryptocurrency and the broader market. This article explores the Bitcoin halving, examining its historical effects on the crypto market and its implications from the most recent halving in April 2024.

What Is The Bitcoin Halving?

It's important to differentiate between Bitcoin, the network, and BTC, the digital currency, to understand Bitcoin's halving. The Bitcoin network is a series of data blocks, each with a record of BTC transactions and a link to the previous block, forming a chain-like structure called a blockchain.

Bitcoin (BTC), on the other hand, functions as a virtual medium of exchange that incentivizes specialized computers, known as miners, to gather and validate outstanding Bitcoin transactions. These transactions are then bundled into a block and linked to the decentralized ledger, referred to as the blockchain. As a result of this process, the miner is rewarded with a predetermined quantity of Bitcoin.


Source: Techopedia

The BTC reward is sourced from two different places. The initial source is the coinbase transaction, also known as the block reward, which is the origin of the name for the Coinbase Exchange. The second source of rewards is miner tips, which are transaction fees paid by users who attach BTC tips to their transactions to expedite their inclusion in blocks.


Source: bitcoin.com 

A fascinating point to note is that Bitcoin initially did not involve any transaction fees due to the presence of primarily empty blocks with no transactions. However, as the use of Bitcoin expanded, the number of transactions rose, leading individuals to add fees to guarantee the inclusion of their transactions in subsequent blocks.

Unlike transaction fees, which fluctuate, block rewards are predetermined and hardcoded into the system. The generation of new Bitcoins is automated. Initially, when Bitcoin's first block was extracted in January 2009, the reward was 50 Bitcoins; however, it has since decreased to 3.125. 

This reduction results from the Bitcoin halving mechanism, which systematically slashes the block reward in half every four years. The initial block reward reduction occurred in November 2012, followed by subsequent reductions in July 2016 and May 2020, with the most recent one occurring on April 19th of this year. 


Source: Coindcx

According to fundamental economic principles, prices tend to rise when demand remains steady or grows while supply decreases. In the context of Bitcoin's halving, a 50% supply cut should theoretically lead to a doubling of its price. However, past trends have shown that the price surge following each halving has been even more dramatic, primarily due to the concurrent rise in demand for the cryptocurrency.

Let's take a step back to appreciate the remarkable growth of Bitcoin. When it first launched, only a small group of around a few dozen individuals owned BTC. Fast forward to today, and that number has skyrocketed to over 200 million people worldwide. This surge in adoption has had a profound impact on the value of BTC, causing its price to rise exponentially. What's truly astonishing is that since its humble beginnings in July 2010, when it was worth nine cents, BTC has returned a staggering 720,000 times its initial value. This historical growth is a testament to the potential of Bitcoin and its ability to generate significant returns for investors.

What Has Been the Outcome of Previous Halving Events?

The results of past halving events have shown significant price increases for Bitcoin. For instance, after the first halving in November 2012, Bitcoin's price surged from about $11 to $1,100 in November 2013. Similarly, following the second halving in July 2016, the price jumped from around $650 to almost $20,000 by December 2017. In the third halving, Bitcoin reached over $69,000 the following year.

Historical examples indicate that the decreased availability of newly generated Bitcoins following a halving event may result in greater scarcity and, thus, elevated prices. It is crucial to recognize that although a relationship between these factors exists, it does not necessarily indicate a direct cause-and-effect relationship. Multiple elements, such as market sentiment, adoption patterns, and macroeconomic circumstances, also play a role in influencing price fluctuations.

This brings us to the current halving, with Bitcoin's widespread recognition reaching an all-time high. Some pundits believe that this increased awareness has already been factored into the current market price, leading to a relatively stable future for BTC. On the other hand, others contend that the introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs has generated a consistent flow of investment, which, when paired with the impending reduction in new coin supply, will likely trigger a rapid and dramatic surge in price following the halving.

What About The Bitcoin Miners?

Halving Bitcoin has an immediate and significant effect on miners, who experience a 50% reduction in their earnings from block rewards. This drastic cut can alter the profitability of mining operations, potentially leading to a shift in the cryptocurrency mining landscape. Following the latest halving event, the payout for successfully mining a Bitcoin block dropped from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC.

About a week before the halving event on April 13, the value of a single Bitcoin plummeted from over $67,000 to $62,000. At that time, with the block reward standing at 6.25 Bitcoins, an individual miner would receive a payout of roughly $387,500 for each block of Bitcoin successfully mined.

By April 20, the bitcoin price had stabilized at around $64,000, meaning the new 3.125 BTC reward was roughly $200,000. However, reducing mining rewards could pose difficulties for smaller-scale mining operations in the post-halving period: the increased processing power and energy required to produce new coins pressure miners' profit margins. Numerous predictions have been made that several major Bitcoin miners will struggle to stay afloat following the halving event.

The established, more prominent mining operations should have the financial means to upgrade their equipment and explore more efficient power options. Others believe that given their ample time to adapt to the impending Bitcoin halving, it's reasonable to expect them to be prepared. On the other hand, the halving event poses an existential threat to smaller, less-resourced mining entities, making their survival increasingly uncertain with each successive occurrence.

The Bitcoin halving in April 2024 stands out from its predecessors. Unlike in the past, the crypto landscape has shifted due to the influx of new mining operations, leading to decreased profitability as the growing number of miners share the same rewards pool. 

Another notable shift this time is that the block reward is no longer miners' primary source of income. According to reports, mining companies are expanding their business scope beyond traditional Bitcoin mining to explore alternative revenue streams, venturing into complementary areas such as energy harvesting, data warehousing, and AI development to boost their earnings.

So, How High Could Bitcoin Go?

Some experts believe that introducing ETFs has opened the floodgates to a new wave of investment that could propel Bitcoin's price to unprecedented heights. Moreover, these ETF inflows may also serve as a buffer, mitigating the severity of any future downturns in the cryptocurrency's value. Historically, Bitcoin has experienced drastic declines of over 70% following market peaks. However, the subsequent correction may be less severe, with more seasoned investors entering the fray and accumulating more significant stakes in BTC.

If ETFs are not the driving force, central banks could step in to make an impact instead. In a new development, central banks can allocate 2% of their balance sheets to cryptocurrency starting January 1, 2025. In 2022, the Central Bank of Switzerland expressed interest in purchasing BTC. A significant BTC purchase by a major central bank might trigger a peak in BTC's price. On the other hand, it could also signify the start of the blow-off top phase of the crypto bull market cycle, similar to when MicroStrategy acquired BTC in mid-2020.


Source: Coinmarketcap

Historical Decline Of Bitcoin Dominance. What That Means For Altcoins

The impact of Bitcoin's halving on the broader cryptocurrency landscape is closely related to the shift in market dynamics that follows this event. Analyzing the changes in Bitcoin's market share after the halving is essential to understanding this phenomenon better. This market share, known as Bitcoin dominance, represents the proportion of the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies attributed to Bitcoin alone. However, it's worth noting that historical data on Bitcoin dominance is limited and does not extend back to the first-ever Bitcoin halving in November 2012.

It's probable that altcoins still needed to hold a substantial portion of the market during that time, which limited their influence. Additionally, the entire cryptocurrency infrastructure was still in its early stages, making this point somewhat moot. What's intriguing is that following the second Bitcoin halving event in July 2016, Bitcoin's market dominance decreased by around 4%. This implies that investors shifted their focus away from Bitcoin and towards altcoins. Notably, even when Bitcoin's value plummeted by 40%, its relative strength compared to altcoins failed to rebound.

In other words, BTC is considered the go-to choice for cryptocurrencies' safety. Therefore, a significant 40% drop in BTC's price should have increased BTC's dominance since other cryptocurrencies would have likely decreased in value as well, causing investors to move their funds into BTC. The fact that this shift did not occur could be due to the overall immaturity of the cryptocurrency market.

Despite this, Bitcoin dominance plummeted by 60% during the 2017 cryptocurrency boom, dropping to approximately 40% of the overall market capitalization. Notably, this decline occurred towards the peak of the 2017 cycle, specifically in December 2017, indicating a high level of speculation in alternative cryptocurrencies at that time.

Following the third Bitcoin halving event in May 2020, BTC dominance dropped by 14%, a threefold more significant decrease than the aftermath of the second halving. This considerable decline implies that investors shifted their funds away from Bitcoin and into altcoins even faster after the third halving. Similarly, during the 2021 crypto bull market, Bitcoin's market share plummeted by approximately 35%, falling to around 40% of the total market capitalization, mirroring the trend seen in 2017.

In contrast to the 2017 scenario, this phenomenon occurred earlier in the cycle, emerging around April 2021 and persisting until April 2022. This prolonged rotation into alternative cryptocurrencies implies a more enduring trend than the 2017 cycle, which is reasonable considering that most alternative cryptocurrencies lacked significant utility until 2021.

The brief historical data indicates some unique trends in altcoin dominance for this cycle. BTC's dominance could decrease significantly, up to 40% after the halving, but only around 10% as we near the next cycle's peak. Additionally, altcoins may demonstrate greater resilience during the next crypto bear market.

The significant 40% decrease in BTC's dominance may seem surprising. Still, it becomes more understandable when considering the rising influence of stablecoins and the recent approval of spot Ethereum ETFs. As we move closer to the next bullish crypto market phase, the market capitalization of stablecoins is expected to see substantial growth, while ETH's market cap is likely to increase following the introduction of spot Ethereum ETFs.

How High Will Altcoins Go?

The critical factor is the extent and duration of the rally that altcoins may experience. It is important to note that the prices of altcoins are closely linked to the price of BTC. Altcoins perform well when BTC's price is stable (trading sideways) or increasing slowly. This scenario tends to prompt traders to seek opportunities in more speculative cryptocurrencies due to boredom.


Source: Investopedia

The experts at Coinbureau recommend analyzing altcoin performance compared to Bitcoin by applying conventional stock market measures. They suggest looking at the "Beta to Bitcoin" concept to gauge the volatility of altcoins with BTC. As a general guideline, altcoins with a market capitalization over $1 billion tend to have a beta of 2, meaning they are twice as volatile as Bitcoin. Those with a market capitalization under $1 billion have a beta of up to 4, while those with a market capitalization under $100 million have a beta of around 8, indicating significantly higher volatility compared to Bitcoin.

So if BTC’s price goes up by 2.5x between now and the cycle top, some large capital coins should eventually go up by around 5x, some mid caps should eventually go up by around 10x, and some small caps should eventually go up by around 20x. It is important to note that this is a general guideline and not a definitive prediction for every coin. It is crucial to emphasize the term "eventually" because these projected outcomes are not immediate and may not unfold simultaneously for all alternative coins.

It's a given that the growth won't be a steady upward trajectory; instead, there will be significant downturns and reversals, which will become more pronounced as the market reaches its peak. If Coinbureau's forecasts about dominance hold true, altcoins may experience prolonged periods at or near their record highs, unlike in past cycles. Conversely, this implies that they will face similar declines during the next downturn in the cryptocurrency bear market.

However, a catch could be that this phenomenon may be limited to well-established alternative cryptocurrencies like Ethereum, which have already inspired their own exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and could consequently exhibit the previously mentioned dynamics: unexpected high points, reduced volatility in downturns and potentially propped up by central banks. 

How Can You Take Advantage of Potential Gains?

It is essential to be aware of upcoming opportunities to maximize potential profits. There are three critical steps to take advantage of these gains. The initial step involves recognizing the key narratives expected to dominate the upcoming cryptocurrency bull market. This article explores the narratives likely to experience significant growth in the next bullish cycle.

Your next step is establishing a presence on the most suitable cryptocurrency trading platforms. The third is to remember that not all altcoins will surge in value simultaneously. If you notice specific cryptocurrencies surging in a particular narrative, avoid rushing to invest in them. Look for other cryptocurrencies within that narrative that have yet to experience a rally. 

Likewise, if your portfolio's cryptocurrencies are underperforming compared to the broader market, they may be experiencing a temporary delay. While it's true that some may never recover if you've conducted thorough research, likely, this won't be the case, and they'll eventually catch up.

This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

 

Editor and Chief Markethive: Deb Williams. (Australia) I thrive on progress and champion freedom of speech.  I embrace "Change" with a passion, and my purpose in life is to enlighten people to accept and move forward with enthusiasm. Find me at my Markethive Profile Page | My Twitter Account | and my LinkedIn Profile.

 

 

 

 

 

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Gold Price News: Gold Ends Higher As Bond Yields Ease

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Gold Price News: Gold Ends Higher As Bond Yields Ease

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Gold prices ended slightly higher on Thursday in a volatile session, after falling US treasury yields helped lift prices back up off an earlier low.

Prices initially fell as low as $2,323 an ounce before rebounding strongly to reach $2,352 an ounce later in the session. That compared with around $2,339 an ounce in late trades on Wednesday.

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US 10-year treasury bond yields fell back on Thursday, easing from a four-week high seen on Wednesday, and helping gold rebound off the earlier lows to notch up a slight day-on-day gain.

US economic data came in on Thursday which was mostly in line with market expectations, providing little convincing impetus for gold prices.

US GDP growth figures for Q1 came in at 1.3%, level with expectations, while weekly initial jobless claims figures came in at 219,000 in the week to May 25, very close to an expected figure of 218,000.

Elsewhere, data from interest rate traders indicates an expected probability that the first US interest rate cut will come in November. This compares with expectations earlier in the year that the US Fed would start cutting rates before the summer, and make up to three cuts in 2024 in total. That now looks much less likely, as central banks are under pressure to maintain existing rates to bring inflation down towards target levels.

Meanwhile, Chinese investment demand for physical gold has been strong in recent months, with Chinese gold exchange-traded products showing inflows for five consecutive months, according to a May report by asset management company WisdomTree: WisdomTree Gold Monthly GB | WisdomTree Europe. April was the strongest month on record, attracting $1.3 billion and pushing total assets under management to a historical high of $6.4 billion, it said.

Looking ahead, the markets will be watching out for the US Core PCE Price Index figures for April on Friday, which are expected to show a 0.3% gain in April compared with March.

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