Gold prices extended their recent gains on Thursday to hit fresh all-time highs of over $2,160 an ounce.
Prices notched up a high of $2,164 an ounce on Thursday, compared with around $2,148 an ounce in late deals Wednesday.
Several bullish factors have combined to propel gold prices to record highs in recent days. In particular, weaker economic data from the US has prompted traders to up their bets on an interest rate cut in June. Data from interest rate traders now indicate a probability of just over 70% for the US Fed to start cutting rates at its June 12th meeting, of which most expect a 25 basis-point cut and a minority gunning for a 50 basis-point cut.
Any lowering of interest rates reduces the appeal of holding cash or government bonds, and boosts interest in non-yielding assets like precious metals.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell was quoted on Wednesday saying the central bank needs more evidence that inflation is easing before going ahead with interest rate cuts, although he also signalled that rates have likely reached their peak at the current 5.25-5.5%, in comments to a congressional hearing.
The market’s expectations on monetary policy have also coincided with a period of strong central bank buying of gold in recent months, which has been further augmented by a risk premium due to geopolitical instability and the risks this poses to commerce and financial markets.
Looking ahead, the markets will be watching out for monthly US non-farm payrolls figures on Friday as well as the unemployment rate for February for a further health check on the state of the US economy.
Frank’s experience covering the commodities markets spans 22 years, with a particular specialism in metals, carbon and energy markets. He has worked as a senior editor for S&P Global Commodity Insights (formerly Platts) and before this, at ICIS-LOR, a part of Reed Business Information (Reed Elsevier), where he covered the petrochemicals markets from 2003 to 2005.
NYCB's stock value plummeted over 40% amidst financial health concerns, while Bitcoin soared to a new high of $69,000.
The bank's struggles, including a $2.4 billion loss and leadership changes, contrast starkly with Bitcoin's robust growth.
Bitcoin's demand surges as shown by record-high accumulation addresses and ETF holdings, despite potential corrections.
In a dramatic turn of events that echoes the prescient warnings of Satoshi Nakamoto, the creator of Bitcoin, the financial system witnessed another stark contrast between the faltering traditional banking sector and the growing cryptocurrency market.
The spotlight shone brightly on New York Community Bank (NYCB), which experienced a precipitous decline in its stock value. It plunged over 40% in the wake of alarming revelations about its financial health and management disruption. This turbulence occurred against Bitcoin’s 58% year-to-date ascent to a fresh all-time high of $69,000.
NYCB Goes Bust While Bitcoin Hits Record Highs
The plight of NYCB, a regional lender based in Hicksville, New York, became public knowledge when it disclosed a “material weakness” in its internal controls. This led to a staggering $2.4 billion loss for shareholders last quarter.
A leadership reshuffle compounded the bank’s woes. Alessandro DiNello assumed the roles of president and CEO while a series of credit rating downgrades pushed NYCB’s debt into junk territory.
This series of misfortunes mirrored the earlier collapse of First Republic Bank. Therefore, it hinted at a potential systemic issue within the regional banking sector. Still, NYCB grappled with its internal turmoil and secured a major cash infusion amid the possible erosion of depositor confidence.
“In evaluating this investment, we were mindful of the Bank’s credit risk profile. With the over $1 billion of capital invested in the Bank, we believe we now have sufficient capital should reserves need to be increased in the future to be consistent with or above the coverage ratio of NYCB’s large bank peers,” Former United States Secretary of the Treasury Steven Mnuchin said.
NYCB Price Performance. Source: TradingView
This financial distress starkly contrasted with the flourishing crypto market. Unprecedented investment and accumulation of Bitcoin have signaled a robust vote of confidence from both new and veteran investors.
Significant inflows into accumulation addresses underpin Bitcoin’s resilience and growth. Likewise, growing exchange-traded fund (ETF) holdings reflect an increasing Bitcoin demand that contrasts with the instability plaguing the traditional banking industry.
This divergence reflects a broader shift in investor sentiment, seeking refuge in what many perceive as a more decentralized and secure financial future.
“The total Bitcoin holdings of accumulation addresses also reached record-high levels. The total holdings at these addresses are now 1.5 million Bitcoin. These addresses denote investors that only accumulate Bitcoin and have never sell, so the accelerating growth in their Bitcoin holdings is a sign of strong demand,” analysts at CryptoQuant told BeInCrypto.
However, it is not all smooth sailing for Bitcoin. Despite the growing demand and reaching new price heights, other indicators suggest Bitcoin might be entering an overheated phase. These metrics reveal a complex time where rapid gains could precipitate equally swift retractions.
“A short-term pause/correction may be brewing as prices have increased too fast in relation to key on-chain metrics… Moreover, traders’ unrealized profit margins are now above extreme levels, which can anticipate selling pressure from these market participants,” analysts at CryptoQuant added.
As Bitcoin continues to chart its course, the fate of traditional banks may serve as cautionary tales for an industry at a crossroads, navigating the challenging waters of modern finance in the shadow of Satoshi Nakamoto’s remarks.
“Banks must be trusted to hold our money and transfer it electronically, but they lend it out in waves of credit bubbles with barely a fraction in reserve. We have to trust them with our privacy, trust them not to let identity thieves drain our accounts,” Satoshi Nakamoto wrote.
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Predictions and analysis come from many people in the dynamic crypto world. But recently, Michaël van de Poppe, a well-known crypto analyst, has made waves with his bold proclamation that this Bitcoin bull run is not just significant – it’s about to be a “giant” and possibly even a “supercycle.” In this article, we delve into van de Poppe’s insights and explore the implications of his prediction on the broader crypto landscape.
The Unusual Bitcoin Cycle
One of the standout features of van de Poppe’s analysis is his observation that Bitcoin has never reached an all-time high before its halving.
This altered occurrence has led the analyst to believe that the ongoing Bitcoin bull cycle holds extraordinary potential. Despite a recent correction that saw Bitcoin drop 8% from its $69,000 peak, van de Poppe remains optimistic, attributing the pullback to the natural flow of the crypto market.
Altcoins Positioned to Outperform Bitcoin
Contrary to the Bitcoin-centric focus that often dominates discussions, van de Poppe predicts that altcoins will be the real stars of the upcoming months.
Emphasizing their potential to outperform Bitcoin, he points to notable performers like Dogecoin (DOGE), Shiba Inu (SHIB), and Pepe (PEPE), which have made impressive moves in recent weeks.
Navigating the Crypto Landscape
While Robert Kiyosaki’s bullish prediction for Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by June 2024 sounds exciting, van de Poppe’s nuanced perspective offers a more detailed view of the crypto landscape. With his belief that altcoins like Ether, Solana, XRP, Cardano, Shiba Inu, and PEPE are about to dominate the current bull run, it’ll be interesting to see how both theories play out.
Expert analysis and predictions provide invaluable insights into the ever-evolving world of crypto. Michaël van de Poppe’s bold proclamation about the potential “giant” Bitcoin bull cycle and the anticipated outperformance of altcoins fuel the excitement surrounding crypto assets. The coming months promise to be dynamic, with altcoins potentially taking centre stage in the crypto arena.
DISCLAIMER
The views expressed in the article are wholly those of the author and do not represent those of, nor should they be attributed to, ZyCrypto. This article is not meant to give financial advice. Please carry out your own research before investing in any of the various cryptocurrencies available.
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Pantera is Raising $250M to Buy SOL from FTX Estate: Report
Lucky Ebosele | Last updated March 7, 2024 | @ 14:43
Crypto-focused asset manager Pantera Capital is reportedly raising money from large investors to buy discounted Solana tokens from the bankrupt FTX estate.
Pantera Seeks to Raise $250M
According to a Bloomberg report that cited marketing materials sent to prospective investors, Pantera is seeking funds for the âPantera Solana Fund,’ which would have the option to buy up to $250 million worth of SOL tokens from FTX at $59.95 or 39% below the average price over the past 30 days.
The report stated that investors would have to agree to a vesting period of up to four years in exchange for this discount.
Pantera was aiming to close the fund by the end of February, but it is unclear how much money they were able to raise. Investors participating in the fund must invest at least $25 million and have their SOL tokens initially locked and gradually vested over four years.
The asset manager plans to charge a management fee of 0.75% and a performance fee of 10%.
Pantera’s investment is an opportunity to capitalize on the discounted price of SOL and potentially profit as the Solana ecosystem grows. On the other hand, the deal will allow FTX to offload its SOL holdings and return value to creditors without putting immediate pressure on the token’s price.
SOL Performance Post-FTX Implosion
As of Wednesday, March 6, FTX held 41.1 million SOL tokens, worth approximately $5.4 billion in current prices and equivalent to 10% of the token’s total supply.
Since the FTX implosion in November 2022, SOL’s price has surged by nearly 4x after facing a tumultuous period. Over the past year, the token has jumped by approximately 650%, thereby increasing the value of FTX’s holdings and giving the firm the opportunity to fully repay creditors.
SOL was trading at $142.10 at press time, representing an 11.37% increase in the past 24 hours.
Disgraced FTX co-founder Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) was a major backer of the Solana network. Moreover, FTX and its sister company, Alameda Research, were heavily invested in the Solana ecosystem.
DISCLAIMER
Information found on this website is those of the writers quoted. It does not represent the opinions of Coinfomania on whether to buy, sell, or hold any investments. Readers must conduct their own research before making any investment decisions. Use the provided information at your own risk.
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Gold price vs. Bitcoin price record rally: Mixed market signals, here's what it all means — Gareth Soloway
(Kitco News) – Are the gold and Bitcoin rallies sending mixed messages to the market, and which narrative should investors pay attention to more? Gareth Soloway, Chief Market Strategist at VerifiedInvesting.com, breaks down the two signals.
Even though gold and Bitcoin rallied in tandem — the two assets sent different kinds of messages to the market about the global risk appetite, Soloway told Michelle Makori, Lead Anchor and Editor-in-Chief at Kitco News.
As Bitcoin topped $69,300 and set a new record high on Coinbase — the largest crypto exchange in the U.S. — on Tuesday, gold rallied to new all-time highs above $2,100 and even extended that rally the following day, trading above $2,150 an ounce.
A simultaneous record high for gold, a traditional safe-haven, is in contrast to Bitcoin, which still trades as a risk asset despite being viewed by some as a store of value, Soloway said.
"The risk-on environment is driving Bitcoin. We've seen the stock market making new all-time highs. The NASDAQ has been really running, but we've seen other sectors in the S&P lagging technology," he explained. "That's been driving the stock market in Bitcoin with money flow. There's also excitement about the spot ETF inflows. The talk has been contributing to this GameStop, AMC-type run in this asset."
In gold's case, Soloway points to smart money getting involved in the trade. "I'm convinced that smart money is at a point here where they're starting to say, this is a bubble in these risk assets, and therefore, they're rotating [into gold.] You got the momentum kicking in now," he said.
Soloway pointed out that viewing gold as unimportant is a mistake. "The central banks, the ones that print all the money, are buying the most gold," he said. "That's the smart money. Institutions and hedge funds are not so smart. They're included with everyone else, and they're running after Bitcoin. They're running after stocks."
What's next for Bitcoin
Soloway describes the recent Bitcoin rally as a "culmination of greed," with people chasing the market, which creates a highly volatile environment.
"Just looking at the last week, we're up from $50,000. The momentum of that carried up to this all-time high, but it's also known as a technical double top," he described. "There's notoriously going to be players that are selling into that level or shorting it. And when you get to this point of euphoria, it gets every last buyer in so that when those sellers and shorters start pounding it down, there's no one left to buy."
For Soloway's breakdown of Bitcoin's immediate support and resistance levels, watch the video above.
Soloway warns that if the stock market tops out and sells off, Bitcoin is at risk of following in its footsteps. "This has been my thesis for a long time — if the stock market sells off dramatically, Bitcoin comes in dramatic as well," he said.
In risk-off trading conditions, Bitcoin retraces back. For Soloway's price forecast in this scenario, watch the video above.
For insights on how steep the market selloff could be and the immediate triggers for the price reversal, watch the video above.
Soloway also reveals where he sees Bitcoin in May and at the year-end. For his longer-term price calls, watch the video above.
What's next for gold
This gold breakout, which has been long coming, is just the start for gold and gold miners, Soloway noted.
"This is huge for gold. We've been hovering right up against this level since the 2020 COVID run," he said. "You can calculate the next target via an inverse head and shoulders, and it gives us a $2,500 an ounce."
On when gold can hit this price target, watch the video above.
Soloway also breaks down the contradiction between gold reaching new all-time highs and gold ETFs continuing to see outflows.
"Gold has stayed so close to its all-time highs because there is demand. There's massive demand from governments stockpiling. It has to do with the debasement of currencies. These central banks know that they will have to, at some point, turn the printing presses on. How do you backstop your own? You have to buy that gold," he said.
For other assets, Soloway is bullish on going into the spring and summer, watch the video above.
As the crypto market continues to be in the green, with the market capitalization edging closer to the $2.6 trillion mark, altcoins are not being left behind as they are making significant strides.
Taking on X, formerly Twitter, leading market analyst Michael van de Poppe highlighted this trend and stated, “Altcoins are ready to accelerate after this run of Bitcoin. Bitcoin has shown a gigantic return, which means that altcoins are likely going to outperform Bitcoin by a mile.”
Therefore, based on this analysis, altcoins are eyeing a substantial rally, with top coins like Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), Cardano (ADA), Polkadot (DOT), and Shiba Inu (SHIB) leading the pack.
For instance, Ethereum is edging closer to the psychological price of $4,000, given that the top altcoin was up by 61.1% in the past month to hit $3,852 at press time, according to CoinGecko.
Is the Alt-Season Fully Here?
Given that altcoins are a force to be reckoned with in the crypto ecosystem, questions are being raised about whether an alt season is now on the horizon on the foundation of the bullish momentum being witnessed.
Van de Poppe noted, “Altcoin market capitalization is slowly moving upwards. The upside could be captured on Bitcoin, meaning a rotation towards altcoins. Therefore, Ethereum to $4,500-5,000 is likely, while altcoins will accelerate with 2-4x returns.”
Based on this analysis, Ethereum will be instrumental in triggering an alt season, with the second-largest cryptocurrency continuously experiencing an uptrend.
With the crypto market appearing to have entered the hope phase, the altcoin market is painting a bright picture.
The views expressed in the article are wholly those of the author and do not represent those of, nor should they be attributed to, ZyCrypto. This article is not meant to give financial advice. Please carry out your own research before investing in any of the various cryptocurrencies available.
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Gold’s shock rally has analysts grasping for explanations
Gold’s surprising rally to new all-time highs has even seasoned industry professionals scratching their heads as to the true cause.
“It is clear that despite the West's disaffection for gold […] demand in China is more than offsetting the shortfall, with monumental volumes flowing from West to the East,” wrote Metals Daily CEO Ross Norman in a LinkedIn post. “As such, this rally seems to have caught Western experts and forecasters by surprise – a stealth rally if you like – which suggests to me the buying is beyond the immediate purview of most of us.”
Norman said the “conventional explanation” is that gold is rallying ahead of an expected rate cut at the June Fed meeting, which would weaken the dollar and strengthen gold, “but the dollar is actually up YTD and silver is not validating the move higher in the complex as evidenced by a decline in the gold/silver ratio as we would have expected.”
Another possible explanation would be the decline in U.S. treasury yields, “down 1.2% in the last month and with gold up nearly 6% … but again no evidence that institutions are behind this as ETF demand remains lacklustre.”
Norman said that there’s no doubt that short covering in the futures market has helped boost the rally, but the move is too big for that to be the main driver, “so something else is at play.”
“A significant part of the answer is of course Chinese buying and not just the traditional 'dama' or Chinese grandmothers – Gen Z investors have joined the fray,” he wrote. “But Chinese premiums are slipping (down from a strong $45 premium to $38) as have Indian premiums (down from $5 discount to a $16 discount) suggesting Asia is behaving in a moderately price-elastic manner and easing back on purchases in the face of price strength.”
Norman said he believes the shock rally is being driven by central bank buying, which continues to be very strong according to the latest January numbers.
“With the US moving beyond simple sanctions and threatening to sequester $300 billion in Russian financial assets (to be sold and paid across to support Ukraine) … some Central Banks … even the non-aligned ones, will be alarmed for fear that they might be in the firing line themselves at some point potentially,” he wrote. “It follows therefore that they might prudently wish to diversify into non-dollar assets.”
James Steel, an analyst at HSBC Holdings PLC, told Bloomberg in a report that the scale of the move is surprising given that there hasn’t been a significant change in rate cut expectations or another clear macroeconomic driver.
“The velocity and the speed were very sudden, very fast,” Steel said. “It didn’t seem to have a smoking gun.”
Ole Hansen, commodity strategist at Saxo Bank, said that the ISM manufacturing PMI data for February released on March 1, which came in well below expectations, highlighted the rising risk of a stock market correction, and may have prompted some investors to move from equities to gold.
TD Securities commodity strategist Ryan McKay believes that macro funds and momentum buying by commodity trading advisors contributed to gold’s sudden gains, with the latest Commodity Futures Trading Commission data showing hedge funds and money managers increasing their net bullish gold bets as of Feb. 27. Still, McKay noted that these investors added short positions roughly in line with new longs, meaning they’re not all in on gold’s upward move either.
The report noted that gold’s recent rally has also highlighted the growing disconnect between spot prices and gold-backed ETF outflows. “Holdings in SPDR Gold Shares, the world’s largest such ETF, fell by 0.3 per cent on March 4, taking the total to the lowest level since July 2019, according to data compiled by Bloomberg,” they wrote. “Those outflows have partly been offset by persistent central bank demand for the precious metal, which helped keep prices elevated even as real interest rates spiked last year.”
They also pointed out that physical demand for gold bars and coins also absorbed the gold that was sold by ETFs, and a strong Lunar New Year saw Chinese consumers buying gold as a hedge against the country’s beleaguered stock markets and real estate sector.
Ewa Manthey, commodities strategist at ING, believes the rally is being driven by a combination of rate cut expectations and geopolitical turmoil. “Speculation over a Fed rates pivot and continued geopolitical tensions keep gold shining,” said Manthey. “We expect gold prices to trade higher this year as safe-haven demand continues to be supportive amid geopolitical uncertainty with ongoing wars and the upcoming U.S. election.”
Spot gold hit a high of $2,150 per ounce around noon EST as Fed Chair Jerome Powell presented the central bank’s semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the U.S. House Financial Services Committee. It last traded at $2,148.90, up 0.84% on the day at the time of writing.
“Enlightenment” Is a way to cultivate positive lines of thought.
“ENLIGHTENMENT”
“Enlightenment” Is a way to cultivate positive lines of thought. I’m sure you have a great idea in your mind that you can’t wait to try out. You’re not the only one with a great idea. What motivates you to make your creative or inspiring ideas a reality?
Setting a personal goal that you can achieve in the shortest amount of time possible is always the best way to go about it. For example, you may try to mow the lawn in an hour before the big game on television. You will find that everything is simpler and even more pleasurable if you maintain a right and optimistic attitude in whatever you do.
Here are some suggestions that will help you get through the week, even if you are just sitting on the couch that you enjoy the most. The formation of an idea in your thoughts is a process that takes time and occurs frequently when you are occupied with sitting.
Even a small amount of positive thinking can assist you in recognizing things that you would have never considered to be conceivable. It is true that the American Way is to think big, and it is this way of thinking that has contributed to the prosperity of our nation.
“ENLIGHTENMENT”
Move forth with a strong desire to live your life according to your own design. Talking is a waste of time. Taking action is like making deposits in the bank of a future that is passionately authentic. Without it, passion is null and void.
Imagine a scenario in which you begin by playing with your head, and then move on to playing with your hands. This is the perfect example of how dreams are produced. And even if the idea loses its strength, you can always return to it at a later time until you have completed it.
If you want to create a life you love, be true to yourself and the people you love. Create from your heart and with love, not fear. Don’t just react, but act with purpose. The American Dream is still real, but it’s just a dream if you don’t take action. Be amazed when things start to change.
The third step is to understand and accept the idea that every moment is perfect, no matter what happens. When you encounter something that seems difficult, why not try and see if it works out? You might be surprised to find other ways to finish the task on time. If you’re not happy with the result, decide to use that situation as a chance to learn and make changes.
Allow yourself to feel very thankful. Use what you have in a helpful way. Instead of focusing on not having enough, focus on being grateful. This will help you not feel needy all the time.
INSTEAD OF DWELLING ON MISSED OPPORTUNITIES,
Instead of dwelling on missed opportunities, try using the Passion Formula. This involves Recognizing, Reevaluating, and Restoring. The first step focuses on growth and wealth, while the second considers scarcity and lack. When faced with daunting challenges, remind yourself that the task is as important as giving instructions to your team. It’s best to be deeply passionate!
Always remember to keep humor in the forefront of your mind, and try to laugh at and with yourself whenever you can. When you let your guard down, you could find that you entertain yourself quite a bit! On the other hand, despite the fact that his quips are as “old as great-grandma,” I have never witnessed a comedian ever going hungry. There are a lot of things in life that can inspire you to wallow in self-pity and mope around. The value of humor is in its ability to captivate and captivate with passion.
Have confidence in your ability to shape your own future. You have the power to create the life you want. Live authentically and remember that there are endless possibilities for achievement as long as you’re alive and healthy. Enjoy the process and celebrate your accomplishments. When everything comes together perfectly, you’ll be amazed.
“Enlightenment”
It’s amazing how easily some people can feel overwhelmed when trying to learn to use a computer, especially now that big computer companies make software that even kids can use. I don’t want to sound patronizing, but without a positive attitude, you’ll just end up feeling stuck. Do you get what I mean? So instead of setting yourself up for failure, you should start by having a good mindset and paving your own way forward.
Bitcoin (BTC), the pioneer cryptocurrency, has once again captured the spotlight as its spot trading volume surged to over $46 billion on March 5th, marking a significant milestone not witnessed since the peak days of 2021, according to data by Kaiko data. This resurgence in trading activity across various centralized exchanges (CEXs) underscores the enduring appeal and resilience of Bitcoin in the ever-evolving cryptocurrency market. Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange by volume, led this monumental trading volume with a staggering $23.84 billion worth of Bitcoin trades. Coinbase and Bybit followed closely behind, contributing significantly with volumes of $4.83 billion and $4.29 billion respectively. Other major exchanges such as OKX, KuCoin, Upbit, and Kraken also played a significant role, each contributing multi-billion dollar trading volumes.
Bitcoin (BTC) Market Dynamics and Future Outlook
The surge in Bitcoin trading volume was not limited to Bitcoin alone, as Ethereum (ETH) also experienced a substantial increase in spot trading volume, exceeding $20 billion on the same day. Binance again led the pack in Ethereum trading volume, accounting for half of the total volume. Bitcoin’s price experienced significant volatility, reaching a new all-time high at $69,324 shortly after the opening bell on Wall Street, only to see a correction of 9.75% to $59,323 later in the day. Analysts view this correction as necessary for “healthy consolidation” before the next surge, a common occurrence in the crypto market.
The sudden price drop raised questions about its cause—leverage, sudden sales by short-term buyers, or other factors. Subsequently, over $1.17 billion worth of leveraged positions were closed across the cryptocurrency market, with a significant portion attributed to Bitcoin long positions. The future of Bitcoin remains uncertain. Various events, including the release of economic data, upgrades to Ethereum’s blockchain, and major regulatory developments, are expected to contribute to more volatility and trading in the bitcoin markets.
DISCLAIMER
The views expressed in the article are wholly those of the author and do not represent those of, nor should they be attributed to, ZyCrypto. This article is not meant to give financial advice. Please carry out your own research before investing in any of the various cryptocurrencies available.
** Loans, secure funding for business projects in the USA and around the world. Learn more about USA & International Financing at Commercial Funding International. **
Gold continues to rise, but technical studies suggest gold is overbought
Gold continues its dynamic rally moving to higher ground for the fourth consecutive day, with the last three consecutive days resulting in a new record settlement price. As of 4:00 PM ET, gold futures basis the most active April contract is currently trading up $11.70 and fixed at $2138.20. However, today gold futures are trading well off of $2150.50 its intraday high, the first occasion in the last few days in which gold has not closed near or at its daily high.
The current rally became dynamically stronger last Friday, March 1st when gold futures opened just at its 50-day simple moving average and gained $41 in trading. The $41 gain occurred after a report by the Institute for Supply Management which revealed its manufacturing index dropped to 47.8 in February, “signifying an economic contraction.” This is according to Ryan McIntyre, managing partner at Sprott Asset Management.
Follow-through buying was evident yesterday with gold futures scoring over a $30 gain taking the precious yellow metal to $2126.30.
However, this latest rally is not broad-based but rather fueled by a “jump in speculative betting”, according to Adrian Ash, director of research at BullionVault. Speaking to MarketWatch he said there is “no gold rush among Western investors right now, not in physical bullion and not outside Comex futures and options.”
Ash added that “gold exchange-traded funds continue to “shrink to pre-pandemic size; coin shops are slashing their premiums and buy-back prices to try clearing the flood of customer selling.”
The current rally is fueled largely by overwhelming optimism that the Federal Reserve will begin its pivot from interest rate hikes to its first interest rate cut since March 2022. However, this optimism is not in-line with recent comments of multiple Federal Reserve members including Chairman Powell. Fed officials continue to express the narrative that “they are in no rush to cut rates”.
Investors are hoping to gain more insight when Chairman Powell heads to Capitol Hill for his semi-annual testimony to the House and Senate beginning tomorrow. According to the CME’s FedWatch tool, there is a 97% probability that the Federal Reserve will not begin to cut rates at their March FOMC meeting and a 79.1% probability that the Fed’s benchmark Fed funds rate will remain unchanged at the May meeting.
However, this probability indicator dramatically favors a rate cut by June with only a 27.2% probability that they will not cut rates in June.
That being said, there are technical indicators that suggest that the recent rise in gold prices has put the precious yellow metal in an overbought situation. The chart above is a daily Japanese candlestick chart of gold with a stochastic oscillator. This study indicates that gold is very much overbought well over 80%, with the %K line crossing below the %D line which signals a strong potential for gold prices to decline. According to Investopedia, “ Stochastic oscillator charting generally consists of two lines: one reflecting the actual value of the oscillator for each session, and one reflecting its three-day simple moving average. Because price is thought to follow momentum, the intersection of these two lines is considered to be a signal that a reversal may be in the works, as it indicates a large shift in momentum from day to day.”
The chart above is also a daily Japanese candlestick chart with the RSI (Relative Strength Index) at 76.23. The RSI is a momentum indicator that measures the speed and magnitude of recent price changes used to evaluate if the market is over or undervalued. The RSI has moved above 70 indicating that gold is overbought and also suggests that gold could be primed for a trend reversal or a technical price pullback according to Investopedia.
While both of these technical studies strongly indicate that gold is overbought, the caveat to these momentum indicators is that gold could continue to rise and continue to be overbought. However, the fact that both of these indicators suggest that gold is extremely overbought warrants our attention as a potential indication that gold could pivot from its current bullish demeanor and signal imminent price correction.
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