Gold prices test fresh session highs as ISM Services PMI drops to 488

Gold prices test fresh session highs as ISM Services PMI drops to 48.8

The gold market has pushed to a fresh session high as activity in the U.S. service sector contracted sharply.

On Wednesday, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said its Services Purchasing Managers Index dropped to 48.8% in June, compared to May’s reading of 53.8%. The data was significantly weaker than expected, as consensus forecasts looked for a much smaller drop to 52.6.

The gold market has seen a solid bid through the early start of the North American session and the disappointing economic data is adding to the bullish momentum. August gold futures last traded at $2.372.80 an ounce, up 1.68% on the day.

The U.S. service sector is seeing its weakest activity since the economy was shuttered during the COVID-19 pandemic.

“In June, the Services PMI® registered 48.8 percent, 5 percentage points lower than May’s figure of 53.8 percent. The reading in June was a reversal compared to May and the second in contraction territory in the last three months,” said Steve Miller,Chair of the ISM Services Business Survey Committee.

Readings above 50% in such diffusion indexes signify economic growth and vice-versa. The farther an indicator is above or below 50%, the greater or smaller the rate of change.

The disappointing reading comes after the ISM said its Manufacturing PMI also fell deeper into contraction territory. Economists have said that the data raises the risks of an economic slowdown.

“Alongside a decline in the ISM manufacturing index, these surveys suggest that GDP growth will remain weak in the third quarter. They also add to evidence that labour demand is softening, and inflation will remain on a downward trend,” said Olivia Cross, North America Economist at Capital Economics.

Looking at the components of the report, the Business Activity Index dropped to 49.6%, down from May’s reading of 61.2. At the same time, the New Orders Index dropped to 47.3%, down from the previous reading of 54.1%.

Ahead of Friday’s nonfarm payrolls, the ISM report showed falling momentum in the labor market. The Employment Index dropped to 46.1%, down from May’s reading of 47.1%.

Adding to the positive environment for gold, the report noted easing price pressures. The Prices Index dropped to 56.3%, down from May’s reading of 58.1%.

Kitco Media

Neils Christensen

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Trump 20 could drive global investors to gold both silver and gold prices will benefit from trade wars Heraeus

Trump 2.0 could drive global investors to gold, both silver and gold prices will benefit from trade wars – Heraeus

Trump 2.0 could drive global investors to gold, both silver and gold prices will benefit from trade wars – Heraeus teaser image

The prospect of a Trump victory in November could push investors around the world into the yellow metal, while both gold and silver prices stand to benefit from tariffs and trade disputes, according to precious metals analysts at Heraeus.

In their latest precious metals report, Heraeus suggested that the economic policies of a second Trump administration could drive global investors into gold. “The upcoming 5 November presidential election will set the United States on two fundamentally different paths, depending on the outcome,” the analysts wrote. “The more unpredictable former president and current Republican candidate, Donald Trump, may introduce several economic policies that could lead to significant market shocks, geopolitical risks and rising inflation. Trump currently maintains an edge over Biden in the polls – 46.9% vs. 45.0%.”

Heraeus pointed out that a renewed trade war could escalate tensions between the U.S. and China and could hurt both the U.S. and global economies.

“While the Biden administration preserved many of Trump’s China tariffs and raised tariffs on only a small basket of Chinese cleantech imports, a second Trump administration could escalate the trade war unprecedentedly,” they said. “Trump has proposed two significant trade policy agendas: imposing a 10% across-the-board tariff on all imports from all countries and imposing tariffs of 60% or more on all Chinese imports. Although the legal feasibility of these measures is still in question, Trump’s first administration demonstrated the possibility of launching a trade war on China by invoking a loophole clause from an old statute – the 1974 Trade Act. A Peterson Institute paper found that these proposed tariffs could lead to an economic loss of 1.8% of US GDP, and significantly raise inflation. This assessment does not account for the almost guaranteed retaliatory tariffs from China and other countries.”

The analysts noted that the 2018-2020 U.S.-China trade war coincided with rising gold prices. “Gold surged during this period as the prolonged negotiations, coupled with tariff and geopolitical escalations, drove investors to seek gold as a safe-haven asset despite a rate-hiking environment until mid-2019,” they said. “Gold’s appreciation closely correlated with the tariff increases which served as a meaningful indicator of US-China tensions (see the chart). Global ETF holdings increased from end-2017’s 71 moz to end-2019’s 86 moz, and US ETF holdings grew from 37 moz to 44 moz.

Heraeus worries that Trump could also undermine the independence of the Federal Reserve, as his first presidency saw public attacks on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s rate hikes.

“Unofficial proposals from the Trump campaign team include steps to undermine the Fed’s independence and potentially removing Powell prematurely,” they said. “Trump could replace Powell after his term ends in 2026 with a dovish candidate. Additionally, Trump could appoint multiple governors to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) who would favour looser monetary policies.”

“A more dovish FOMC would expedite rate cuts and loosen inflation control, weakening the dollar and increasing investors’ demand for gold,” they pointed out. “Any manoeuvres extending executive authority over the Fed could shake market confidence in US monetary policies, further boosting gold prices.”

Moving to the Asian environment for precious metals, the analysts noted that India continues to see robust demand for gold. “Gold imports to India remained strong in May, reaching ~44.5 tonnes, signalling above-average levels of gold purchasing,” they said. “Although May’s imports were slightly lower than last year’s 58.5 tonnes, which marked a particularly high year for India’s gold consumption, high gold imports around mid-year typically translate to robust jewellery production for festivals in the third quarter.”

The analysts noted that India accounted for 95.5 tonnes of jewellery demand in Q1 of 2024, a 4% annual increase. “This is only half of China’s 184.2 tonnes of consumption in the same period (-6% year-on-year),” they wrote. “India’s jewellery consumption makes up 20% of the world’s total, and it is the second-largest consumer market for gold. Resilient demand year-to-date partly offsets the decrease of jewellery demand in China.”

They also pointed out that India’s central bank has seen a net inflow of 24.1 tonnes of gold in 2024, which already surpasses last year’s total. “The Indian central bank has been the third-largest gold purchaser amongst its peers this year, behind Turkey and China,” they said.

Gold prices remained in their recent channel between $2,300 and $2,340 during the first two days of the week, with spot gold last trading at $2,330.80, essentially flat on the session.

Turning to silver, Heraeus believes the expansion of the U.S. solar manufacturing industry combined with increasing barriers to trade could serve to boost domestic silver demand.

“In Q1’24, the US added 11 GW of new solar module manufacturing capacity, driven by substantial investments spurred by the Inflation Reduction Act,” the analysts noted. “Thanks to rapid solar deployment in every major region, silver demand from solar PVs is expected to reach a consecutive record of more than 230 moz this year (source: The Silver Institute), equal to ~19% of total global use of silver."

And solar is not the only area of silver demand benefiting from the green energy transition, they noted. “Expansion of EV charging infrastructure is also an area of focus for government subsidies in the US,” they said. “Since January 2021, the number of public EV chargers has grown by 55% to ~175,000 across the country (source: Joint Office of Energy and Transportation). The rollout of large-scale electric infrastructure requires the use of silver in connectors and various components.”

“Moreover, the US is expected to announce several tariffs aimed at curbing Chinese circumvention practices, such as evading tariffs by setting up PV manufacturing plants in Southeast Asia,” Heraeus wrote. “These trade barriers could segment the market and put pressure on the US government to expand domestic demand, creating a bullish outlook for silver’s industrial uses.”

Silver prices have seen mildly positive momentum this week, with spot silver hitting a session high of $29.823 shortly after 10 am EDT on Tuesday, and last trading at $29.552 for a gain of 0.35% on the daily chart.

Kitco Media

Ernest Hoffman

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Gold Price News: Gold Ends Flat on Friday Eyes On US

Gold Price News: Gold Ends Flat on Friday, Eyes On US

Gold News

Market Analysis

Gold prices ended little changed on Friday after US inflation figures came out in line with market expectations.

Prices did manage a modest intraday gain, rising to $2,340 an ounce in the mid-afternoon, European time, but trading at this level could not be sustained and prices slipped back to $2,327 an ounce later in the session, almost unchanged day-on-day.

The keenly-watched US core PCE price index, the US Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, nudged higher by 0.1% in May from April’s level, according to data released Friday. The slight uptick was in line with market expectations, providing little impetus for gold prices on Friday.

Gold’s bounce off the $2,300 an ounce mark on Thursday last week was a bullish signal in itself, as this is a level that was previously tested in early May and again in the second week of June. This suggests buyers are willing to step into the market at levels below $2,300. Other things being equal, this may help to solidify support further at this level.

However, Dutch bank ABN Amro on June 27 issued a research report saying it is cautious on gold prices going forward, and kept its forecast for December 2024 unchanged at $2,000 an ounce – more than $300 below current market prices: Gold Watch – Outlook for gold prices – ABN AMRO Bank

The bank’s rationale included a view that positive momentum is declining in gold prices; unusual positive relationships between gold, the US dollar and US treasury real yields are not expected to last; and a lack of a current shortage in physical gold.

Looking ahead, data releases on Monday include the preliminary German inflation rate for June, followed by the June US ISM Manufacturing PMI figures. After an unexpected decline in May, any further drops in US manufacturing activity could support calls for interest rate cuts.

Further ahead, the markets will also be watching out for Tuesday’s Euro Area inflation rate flash for June, a planned speech by US Fed chair Jerome Powell, and the US JOLTs job openings figures for May.

Kitco Media

Frank Watson

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Ethereum 2025 Price Prediction: Analyzing Market Trends and Future Potential

Ethereum 2025 Price Prediction: Analyzing Market Trends and Future Potential

Ethereum 2025 Price Prediction: Analyzing Market Trends and Future Potential

The Future of Ethereum: An In-Depth Analysis. We're going to discuss Ethereum, and this is the only blog post you need to read to understand its potential, whether it's a good idea to invest in Ethereum, and what we are doing as traders with Ethereum right now. We'll also discuss what has happened to my short trade on Ethereum because many misconceptions are circulating online, saying that the merge has failed to push the price of Ethereum to a new all-time high of two thousand dollars, three thousand dollars, or whatever.

So, I wanted to discuss what is happening, why it is going down, and what we can realistically expect. What is my honest and humble price target for Ethereum in 2025? Let's give it a three-year time frame. In the next three years, what is going to be the price of Ethereum? This is what I'm going to discuss in this blog post. I'm going to give you real reasons behind it and my explanation, etc.

Ethereum 2025 Price Prediction

CURRENT MARKET CONDITIONS: ETHEREUM 2025 PRICE PREDICTION

Now, when it comes to the technicals, let's quickly get this out of the way before we start talking about more stuff. Right now, we are still in bearish control, so to speak, in terms of price action. I got kicked out of my short trade. I'm going to tell you exactly why, but currently, again, we entered here and we are still moving down. We have a higher low, a lower high, and another lower high. This was also a lower high and another lower high. So, in reality, we're just slowly moving down, potentially continuing to move lower.

We might see our initial target met at about 1150 and then potentially a thousand dollars in the short-term perspective. But again, this is a little bit negative, I understand, but this is in a short-term perspective. In a long-term perspective, I'm going to tell you exactly where it could reach and we’re going to reach a certain conclusion.

SHORT-TERM PRICE ACTION: ETHEREUM 2025 PRICE PREDICTION

The reason why I got kicked out of it is because I expected, in terms of my risk and money management, that it would move lower. But then it got pushed above this area right here. Then it retested it here, and this area is very important because there is a big order block standing right here. So, it was a bit of a challenge. That's why I told you guys in my Telegram channel to join my free Telegram Channel. There is a link down in the description of this video. Also, follow me on Twitter, just the verified account. I'm doing a huge one-thousand-dollar giveaway, which is going to be announced on the 30th of September. Here are all the rules that you need to follow in a pinned tweet, so go and follow me there.

TRADING OPPORTUNITIES

Right now, it seems like we are again respecting these levels. This is a very important resistance beyond which anyone should exit their short trade because the model of this bearish control in the short-term perspective is going to be broken with a potential target of fourteen hundred dollars. Right now, we're moving down, so it could be another interesting entry in a short trade, but for now, I'm just going to stay away from it.

So, on Ethereum, I left and I've taken the profit. I got the profit out of the exchange as well, so this is awesome. By the way, guys and girls, if you've used my link down in the description or in the pinned comment of this video, and you've signed up using my link, then there is a 20 USDT bonus waiting for you. How to claim it on Bitget: you have to go to the reward center, click on the reward center, and when you use my link to sign up, you're going to see a bunch of bonuses here.

I see this four-thousand-dollar first deposit bonus, but if you use my link because I didn't use my link, then you can get up to eight thousand dollars in initial deposit bonuses and other insane coupons here as well that you can claim. Then in your rewards, click ‘My Rewards' and you will see this 20 USDT sign-up bonus that you've got because you used my link.

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YOU SIMPLY CLICK

You simply click ‘Claim' and then you will receive it in your account that you can use for your trading. Whatever money you make, it's pretty cool because it gives you a start even if you have literally zero. So, use my link down below in the pinned comment or in the description of this video. Remember that when you're trading on Bitget when you use my link, Bitget is going to pay you for every trade that you're taking in the way of rebates of your commission, and it's going to be credited directly into your spot account, which is amazing. Use it right now.

Also, if you don't want to be trading with Bitget, that's fine. There are other exchanges that I'm recommending. Bybit is also very good and down in the description or in the pinned comment, you can claim up to four thousand dollars. Binance is pretty good as well. Binance is the biggest one. There is a 600 bonus down below as well.

Ethereum 2025 Price Prediction

WHY TRADE WITH BITGET?

The reason why I trade with Bitget is that they have the biggest bonuses, and they have a cool copy trading platform which I'm considering becoming a part of. So let me know in the comments if I should become part of this copy trading platform so you can copy my trades. If you want, you can spread out the number of exchanges you're using because I use at least five different exchanges, but mainly Bitget because I love Bitget. Anyway, let's move on to the main topic.

SHORT-TERM AND LONG-TERM PERSPECTIVES

In the short-term perspective, as I said, we have this expectation that we could potentially go as low as a thousand dollars or, quite frankly, depending on what's going to happen with inflation. If you haven't seen my previous video, I'm going to link it right here. Check it out because it's mega important. It's going to explain a lot, like why in a short-term perspective, we're going to potentially see so much pain and even something in this vicinity.

ETHEREUM COULD BOTTOM OUT: ETHEREUM 2025 PRICE PREDICTION

Ethereum could bottom out in the vicinity between 400 and a thousand dollars, even though it sounds scary. But with the current inflation rate and the Fed's hawkish policy right now, their approach to raising interest rates is not giving us any optimism right now. They could be raising interest rates into 2023. There are many historical comparisons with what we can see and the market effect, so go and watch this previous video that I've done. Right now, let's talk about Ethereum because even though we're seeing short-term pain, this allows us to accumulate.

THE MERGE AND BEYOND

Okay, let's talk about what happened here. We saw this optimism that the merge is finally happening after so many years. The merge is happening. It's switching from POW to POS. Great, amazing, beautiful. You know it was a ‘buy the rumors' right here and ‘sell the news' event right here. That's why we're going down right now and we could keep going down.

A lot of people are saying, “Oh well, you know what it failed and it's a scam.” You know, as always, that's what some people say in crypto. But what they don't understand is that the merge is just the first small piece of the puzzle. Then there will be a Surge, then there will be a Verge, Purge, and Splurge at the end. This is a plan that has been there all along. So it's like one, two, three, four, five stages and we are currently at stage number one which was successful. Yes, it was like an event of ‘buy the rumors' right here and then ‘sell the news' here. Sure, but does it have anything to do with the future? The fact that the merge was successful is amazing because it laid the foundation for Surge, Verge, Purge, and Splurge. How difficult is it to understand this?

Ethereum 2025 Price Prediction

THE SURGE

So, let's take a look. The merge, the fact that it became successful was expected and it did cut Ethereum's power usage by more than 99%. So it's green, it's great for institutional investors for those who are worried about climate change and all that. It also reduced the asset issuance so right now, Ethereum has become deflationary. Many expected Ethereum emissions to become net negative, which it did. It became deflationary. So when there is inflation in fiat, which we're suffering from right now, Ethereum is deflationary. If you're holding one Ethereum, it's becoming theoretically more valuable because there is going to be less Ethereum with every year and every day and every amazing minute. That's why it has the nickname ‘ultrasound money'.

THE SURGE PHASE: ETHEREUM 2025 PRICE PREDICTION

The next phase is the Surge, and this is what a lot of people complained about. They said that the merge didn't solve the problem with gas fees, it still is an expensive network, and it's slow. You know, other ones are faster.

It's true, but again, people don't understand what is going to come next. They don't understand that there are Surge, Verge, Purges, and Splurges. So when the next phase, the Surge, comes, this phase will bring sharding to the Ethereum blockchain. Sharding is a scaling solution that breaks Ethereum into separate portions or shards to spread out the network's computational load.

THIS UPGRADE IS PLANNED FOR 2023 AND WILL ROUGHLY BRING ETHEREUM

This upgrade is planned for 2023 and will roughly bring Ethereum to 85-80% completion based on Vitalik's expectations in January. So this is what I've been telling you all along. The Surge will happen in 2023, which is going to bring scaling to Ethereum, reducing gas fees, and also increasing the speed from 30 transactions to potentially as fast as Visa and Mastercard at a hundred thousand transactions per second. It's going to do it incredibly quickly. So within the next 12 months, okay, maybe not the beginning of 2023 because it's very soon, I think maybe in the middle, of next summer.

This is when this is going to happen, and it's going to have the same kind of effect in terms of the price. It's going to be potentially again ‘buy the rumors' somewhere and then ‘sell the news', and then people are going to realize that Vitalik's team is doing things and it's not as slow as everybody expected. Certainly, it was going to take three years to complete the Surge. We could see some pain, yes, but they've completed the merge. From what I understand from my research, it’s not going to be as difficult to complete the next stages.

Ethereum 2025 Price Prediction

THE VERGE, PURGE, AND SPLURGE

The next one is going to be the Verge, referring to the introduction of Verkle trees. This is very important. If you want more detail, you can research this online and understand what Verkle trees are. This upgrade will involve a powerful upgrade to Merkle proofs, which optimizes data storage for Ethereum nodes. It will also assist Ethereum scaling, as it allows for a greater number of blockchain transactions while keeping the blockchain decentralized. So basically, it’s like the same thing: Roll-Ups, sharding, and the whole concept. How they’ve built this plan is going to, by probably 2024-2025, create this incredible ultrasound money out of Ethereum.

THE PURGE AND SPLURGE: ETHEREUM 2025 PRICE PREDICTION

The next thing is going to be the Purge, which will be a similar upgrade to the Verge concerning data storage for validators, aka future ETH stakes. It will reduce the hard drive space required for validators, introduce historical data and bad debt streamline storage, and reduce network congestion. Again, scaling. Then the final upgrade will be the Splurge, a series of miscellaneous upgrades made simply to ensure the network runs smoothly after the prior four stages are dealt with. So this is the plan. The merge was just the beginning.

PRICE EXPECTATIONS FOR ETHEREUM

Now it brings us to the question: What do I expect from the price in the short term? In the short-term perspective, I already told you we can see potential downside from anything from another 20% to even maybe something as crazy as 60%, depending on macroeconomics. The macro right now is predominant. What is happening in Russia? Russia is mobilizing forces again. It’s a crazy situation right now. What’s going to happen with inflation and the risk of stagflation? All of these things are understandable. From a short-term perspective, we can see a lot of pain.

LONG-TERM PERSPECTIVE: ETHEREUM 2025 PRICE PREDICTION

When it comes to a long-term perspective, I’m looking at something like the next Bitcoin halving cycle, which is happening probably in the first quarter of 2024. We already know that during the halving cycle, we are going to move higher.

ecosystem for entrepreneurs

That’s going to trigger the next bull run. If the bottom is not in yet, then it’s going to be in the next half a year to three-quarters of a year. With Ethereum, once we move down and find this bottom, from there, I believe that with the institutional adoption and everything that the Ethereum Foundation and Vitalik are doing, with just a quick calculation of the potential market cap for Ethereum and the introduction of all the biggest names in smart money, such as BlackRock working with Coinbase, so many things happening already in terms of adoption, it’s creeping in bit by bit. This could be a super cycle.

I’M NOT AFRAID TO SAY THAT POTENTIALLY

I’m not afraid to say that potentially, we can do something like 8X from here, which could lead us to about ten thousand dollars per Ethereum. I would probably say it’s going to be somewhere in the vicinity of 2025, maybe closer to 2026 at the latest. By that time, inflation is going to be gone. The monetary easing will be fully in power.

Certainly, the adoption is going to be happening more and more. The regulation will be in from Cynthia Lummis. I think there’s going to be a lot of interest from institutional investors for Ethereum. I think there’s going to be more interest in Ethereum than Bitcoin. Ethereum could reclaim the throne as the biggest cryptocurrency out there. Bitcoin will still be there as a store of value, a hedge against inflation, but in terms of the biggest use cases, it will be for Ethereum: metaverse, NFTs, institutional investors, deflationary asset, staking rewards, fast, low gas fees, a fast network itself. So, my modest expectation for Ethereum for 2025 would be at least ten thousand dollars. For this reason, right now, when we are seeing some short-term pullback, imagine this allows you to buy more and more.

CONCLUSION

Guys, I'm going to link an interesting tutorial to Bitget, where you can learn how to get paid on Bitget for trading and get money back from Bitget. So, even if you're a break-even trader, you will make some money. As always, let me know down in the comments what you guys think and make some noise. Make some love. Join my Telegram channel. Follow me on Twitter. As always, stay smart, stay rich, and I'll see you in the next blog post. Bye.

https://rtateblogspot.com/2024/04/14/advice-for-those-just-starting-out-in-the-crypto-market/

Tim Moseley

Commercial Funding

Commercial Funding: A Guide to Financing Your Business

commercial funding

Are you a small business owner looking to expand or a startup looking for capital? Commercial funding can be a great way to finance your business ventures. From traditional bank loans to innovative online funding options, there are a variety of ways to secure the funding you need to grow your business.

In today's competitive business landscape, having access to reliable and flexible financing options can make all the difference. Whether you need funds to purchase new equipment, hire more employees, or launch a marketing campaign, having the right funding in place is essential to the success of your business. So, let's dive into the world of commercial funding and explore the different options available to you.

Traditional Bank Loans

When it comes to financing your business, traditional bank loans are often the first option that comes to mind. With a bank loan, you receive a lump sum of money upfront and pay it back over a set period of time with interest. While bank loans are a reliable option for many businesses, they can be more difficult to qualify for, especially for startups or businesses with less established credit histories.

Small Business Administration (SBA) Loans

For businesses that may not qualify for a traditional bank loan, Small Business Administration (SBA) loans can be a viable alternative. These loans are partially guaranteed by the SBA, making them less risky for banks and easier for small businesses to qualify for. SBA loans often have lower interest rates and longer repayment terms than traditional bank loans, making them an attractive option for many small business owners.

Online Lenders

In recent years, online lenders have become a popular option for businesses looking for quick and convenient funding. These lenders offer a variety of financing options, including lines of credit, term loans, and invoice financing. While online lenders may have higher interest rates than traditional bank loans, they often have quicker approval processes and more flexible lending criteria, making them a great choice for businesses that need funding fast.

Crowdfunding

If you have a unique business idea or product, crowdfunding can be a great way to raise capital without taking on debt. Platforms like Kickstarter and Indiegogo allow businesses to pitch their ideas to a large audience of potential investors, who can contribute small amounts of money in exchange for rewards or equity. Crowdfunding can be a great way to validate your business idea and generate buzz around your brand, all while raising the funds you need to bring your vision to life.

Conclusion

In conclusion, finding the right commercial funding option for your business can be a daunting task, but with the right information and resources, you can make an informed decision that will support your business's growth and success. Whether you choose a traditional bank loan, an SBA loan, an online lender, or crowdfunding, it's important to carefully consider your options and choose the financing solution that best fits your business's needs. Remember, securing the right funding is key to taking your business to the next level.

So, whether you're a small business owner looking to expand or a startup looking for capital, commercial funding can help you achieve your business goals and take your company to new heights. Don't let a lack of funding hold you back – explore your options and secure the financing you need to make your business dreams a reality.

For more information on commercial funding options, go to Commercial Funding International, LLC. (https://www.commercialfundinginternational.com).

Now, go out there and secure the funding you need to fuel your business's growth!

Tim Moseley

Gold price remains stuck this week even as inflation gives the Fed some breathing room to cut rates

Gold price remains stuck this week even as inflation gives the Fed some breathing room to cut rates

Gold investors might want to get comfortable because gold is in a holding pattern that doesn't appear to be on the verge of breaking out anytime soon. However, despite the neutral price action, analysts still appear to be optimistic as long-term fundamentals continue to support the price.

Gold continues to trade in a fairly narrow range with solid support at $2,300 and initial resistance at $2,350. Analysts also note that there is broader resistance at the $2,400 level. August gold futures, last traded at $2,342 an ounce, are looking to end the week up roughly 0.5% from last Friday.

"Gold is in a holding pattern, but the risks are to the upside," said Michele Schneider, Chief Strategist of MarketGauge.com. "Inflation is not going away, geopolitical tensions are not easing, and government deficits are growing. This is providing solid support for gold."

A clear message from a growing chorus of analysts is that gold remains in a strong uptrend as long as prices hold support above $2,300 an ounce.

Although gold could continue to be a boring trade in the early months of summer, Schneider said that she could see it breaking out before September. She explained that the Federal Reserve is clearly stuck and if they don't start to lower rates, even as inflation remains elevated, they risk driving the economy into a recession.

"I don't think the Fed will change its stance before the next meeting," she said. "But the question remains, at what point will they be forced to do something and just how far behind the eight-ball they will be when they finally act?"

Naeem Aslam, Chief Investment Officer at Zaye Capital Markets, said that he also remains optimistic for gold, even as prices continue to consolidate.

"Inflation is as low as it can be given the circumstances, and the Fed really needs to move away from its current stance and start giving signals to the market that an interest rate cut is coming. This is because if they don't do that, sentiment in the market would become a lot worse—one evidence of this is already here in terms of pending home sales data and the default levels that we see in the commercial market. So we think, in the absence of assurance, risk could actually increase in the market and it could favor the price of gold," he said. "On the other hand, if the Fed does give a signal for a rate cut, we would see an upward movement in the gold price due to the weakness in the dollar index."

Aslam's comments come after the U.S. core Personal Consumption Expenditures Index showed benign inflation pressures rising in line with expectations. In the last 12 months, the Federal Reserve's inflation gauge rose 2.6%, its slowest annual gain in more than three years.

Although inflation hasn't reached the Federal Reserve's target of 2%, some analysts have said that it is close enough to signal a rate cut in September.

David Morrison, Senior Market Analyst at Trade Nation, said that after two months of consolidation, gold's price action looks attractive, especially as inflation pressures look to ease further.

"Chart-wise, gold has now been consolidating for the last month, and is down 6% from all-time highs. To me, this looks like a setup from which prices will eventually head higher. I certainly wouldn't be surprised to see gold back above $2,350 sometime in July," he said. "Although, we may see some caution creep in next week with Thanksgiving on Thursday and Friday's Non-Farm Payroll update."

However, other analysts also note that gold still doesn't have an "all-clear signal" and that could only come after disappointing employment numbers next week.

Lukman Otunuga, Manager of Market Analysis at FXTM, said that the market is on breakout watch between $2,290 and $2,370 an ounce and is waiting for the catalyst to trigger the next directional move. He added that right now, the market is balanced to go either way.

"After initially being supported by expectations over lower U.S. interest rates, geopolitical tensions, and central bank buying in H1, bulls could be running out of steam. While the U.S. election uncertainty may translate to increased volatility, it's all about what actions the Fed takes in the second half of 2024," he said. "This directs our attention toward the NFP report in the week ahead, which may shape gold's outlook for July. Traders are currently pricing in a 75% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September with a move fully priced in by November. Any major shifts to these bets could support bulls or bears."

Economic data to watch this week:

Monday: ISM Manufacturing PMI

Tuesday: Eurozone CPI flash estimates, JOLTS Job Openings, ECB President Christine Lagarde and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will be speaking at a central bank conference in Portugal

Wednesday: ADP Employment, Weekly Jobless Claims, ISM Services PMI; Minutes from the FOMC June meeting

Friday: U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls Report

Kitco Media

Neils Christensen

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Gold price ends the second quarter with its third consecutive record-high

Gold price ends the second quarter with its third consecutive record-high

The gold market may be stuck below $2,350 for now, but that hasn't stopped prices from achieving new records.

Friday's close marks the end of the second quarter, and the precious metal has notched a new all-time record quarterly closing price for the third consecutive quarter. The yellow metal is ending the week around $2,336 an ounce, up more than 5% from the end of the first quarter.

Meanwhile, on an annual basis, gold prices are up a whopping 21% from the end of the second quarter of 2023. Looking at gold's long-term chart, it's not surprising why many commodity analysts remain extremely bullish on gold. Not only does the price have solid fundamental macroeconomic support, but the chart shows a clear uptrend.

While gold has room to move lower in the near term, it is difficult to see how the current trend materially shifts. While its long-term fundamentals remain firmly in place, the market still lacks a catalyst that will spark a new rally to all-time highs. Investors continue to focus on gold's opportunity costs as the Federal Reserve maintains its aggressive monetary policy.

However, we are starting to see shifting signs in the marketplace as investors look for safe-haven alternative assets. This week, State Street Global Advisors, in collaboration with the World Gold Council, released their annual Gold Perceptions Survey.

The survey polled 525 North American professional investors, and surprisingly, 29% expect to increase their allocation to the precious metal in the next 12 to 18 months.

The survey also showed just how much more active investors have been in gold this year. Nearly nine out of 10 advisors (~85%) surveyed said they have some allocation in the precious metal, up from 69% in 2018 and 76% in 2019.

As to what will be the catalyst for gold, Michael Widmer, commodity analyst at Bank of America, has a few ideas. This week he increased his gold price forecast, seeing it hit $3,000 an ounce in the next 12 to 18 months.

Widmer added that investors won't jump into the gold market until they get clear signaling from the Federal Reserve that it is embarking on a new easing cycle.

However, he also noted that gold's attractiveness is growing as central banks worldwide reduce their exposure to the U.S. dollar and Treasuries. Although a breakdown in U.S. Treasuries is not Bank of America's base-case scenario, it did warn investors that because of growing government debt, risks in the global economy are rising, and the U.S. bond market looks fragile. Widmer said that the U.S. Treasury market is one shock away from not functioning seamlessly.

"Looking at the UST tail risk, how could this actually play out? In our view, a sharp move higher in rates would initially be accompanied by lower gold prices," Widmer said. "That said, the search for a 'safe-haven' asset will ultimately divert flows into the gold market, so the yellow metal will then likely pick up. The long-standing inverse relationship between gold and rates has become more tenuous already and, in our view, this is unlikely to change going forward."

So for now, sit tight and enjoy the summer.

To all our Canadian readers: Happy Canada Day.

To our American readers: Happy Fourth of July.

Kitco Media

Neils Christensen

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

ADA Ripe For Explosive Growth

ADA Ripe For Explosive Growth As Cardano Embraces IBC Protocol For Enhanced Interoperability

By Muthoni Mary Kiama – June 29, 2024

The Cardano blockchain has announced the integration of the Inter-Blockchain Communication Protocol (IBC) to boost interoperability.

This integration seeks to support reliable transactions and data exchange across blockchains. It will make Cardano a cross-chain ecosystem, bolstering adoption by decentralized applications (DApps).

Cardano Integrates Inter-Blockchain Communication Protocol

According to the Cardano Foundation, the IBC Protocol will address challenges such as interoperability, scalability, and data privacy in the blockchain space. It will facilitate data and asset transfer across blockchains while allowing users and creators to benefit from improved security and reduced fees.

The IBC protocol will establish a bridge between the projects created on Cardano and Cosmos SDK chains. Cardano DApps will also be part of the larger interchain ecosystem comprising more than 115 interconnected chains.

This integration will further bring Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM)-based sidechains to Cardano. It will allow developers to launch EVM-based DApps on Cardano sidechains.

Developers will benefit from the security offered by Ethereum and the scalability offered by the Cardano blockchain.

The other benefits of this integration include improved flexibility and cross-platform innovation, where businesses will leverage the strengths of multiple blockchains.

“We hope that by adding IBC to Cardano, we will contribute to broadening the scalability, reach, and connectivity of blockchain technology, providing easier and better ways to deploy blockchain in an interoperable future,” the Cardano Foundation states.

Cardano Emerging as a Reliable Blockchain Solution

Cardano’s recent integration of the IBC protocol adds to the latest developments, boosting the chain’s reliability.

As earlier reported by ZyCrypto, the Cardano blockchain recently mitigated against a Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) attack. The attack did not affect the network’s operations, nor did the attacker steal any funds.

This development saw the network receive much praise from the crypto community, given the rise of hacking exploits in the industry.

The blockchain is also readying for a significant hard fork this month. The Chang hard fork will see Cardano enter the Voltaire era, which will be more decentralized and entirely run by community members.

The Cardano blockchain has a total value locked (TVL) of more than $212 million as more DApps continue building on the chain. Data from DeFiLlama also shows that Cardano on-chain volumes have more than doubled compared to the start of the month to $5.69 million in the last 24 hours.

In the last 24 hours, the price of Cardano’s native token, ADA, has surged by 1.6% to trade at $0.39 at the time of writing.

DISCLAIMER The views expressed in the article are wholly those of the author and do not represent those of, nor should they be attributed to, ZyCrypto. This article is not meant to give financial advice. Please carry out your own research before investing in any of the various cryptocurrencies available.

The original article written by Muthoni Mary Kiama and posted on ZyCrypto.com.

Article reposted on Markethive by Jeffrey Sloe

** Loans, secure funding for business projects in the USA and around the world. Learn more about USA & International Financing at Commercial Funding International. **

Tim Moseley

Wall Street will sit on the sidelines next week Main Street divided on gold’s price prospects

Wall Street will sit on the sidelines next week, Main Street divided on gold’s price prospects

Slow and steady continued to be the name of the game in the gold market this week, as the yellow metal once again traded in a narrow channel between $2,300 and $2,340 per ounce.

After opening the week at $2321.87, spot gold spent Sunday night through early Tuesday morning flirting with the high 2,330s, but the bulls’ advances were rebuffed, and after holding in the $2,320 area for the rest of the day, the bears finally took control during the overnight session. North American markets then woke up to slap spot gold down to its weekly low of $2,295.23 by 9:30 am EDT on Wednesday morning.

The spot price then saw multiple tests of the psychologically important $2,300 level before finally breaking back to the upside during Thursday's overnight trading, when it once again tested $2,330.

Friday morning brought a spike to the weekly high of $2,339.78 per ounce just before the U.S. market open, after which it pulled back and chopped sideways in the mid-2320s for the remainder of the North American session.

The latest Kitco News Weekly Gold Survey shows most industry experts planning to sit on the sidelines next week, while retail sentiment is divided on gold’s near-term prospects.

Alex Kuptsikevich, senior market analyst at FxPro, is bearish on the yellow metal as the price has moved below its 50-day moving average.

“Gold, and the markets along with it, may be at the intersection of weak economic data (slowing growth and weak inflation) and a less dovish Fed,” Kuptsikevich said. “This is the worst combination for risk demand and could trigger a broad sell-off, including in gold.”

Marc Chandler, Managing Director at Bannockburn Global Forex, thinks after this week’s solid performance, gold is in a position to make gains next week.

“Gold recovered from the dip below $2300 Wed-Thurs last week to recover back toward $2340 at the end of the week,” he wrote. “It recouped the previous week’s losses in full.”

Chandler said the move was sufficient to extend gold’s rally for a fifth consecutive month. “It has fallen only in one month since the end of Q3 23 (and that was in January).”

Now, he believes gold is poised to recover further in the coming days. “A move above $2350-60 lifts the tone and could signal a return toward $2400,” he said. “Two macro developments that could help gold are the results of the first round of the French election that make a hung parliament more likely and a disappointingly weak US jobs report at the end of next week.”

“Up,” said James Stanley, senior market strategist at Forex.com. “I think that it’s still bulls to lose, at this point. The monthly candles are looking more and more like they want a pullback and prior resistance at $2,075 for spot Gold seems a logical place to look for that to run towards. But, with that said, bulls have continued to defend $2,300 and until that changes, I’m going to favor with a topside bias.”

Kevin Grady, president of Phoenix Futures and Options, said the coming week will likely see thin markets, but that also means the risk of greater volatility.

“A lot of people right now are taking off, it’s started already, and they're going to be down for the week, big vacation week,” he said. “I think you're going to see a lot of people that are flat.”

“The issue with that is I think that's going to cause volatility because what's going to happen is the things that are going to be trading and moving the market are the algorithms reading the headlines,” he said. “I do think there's some volatility depending on how the numbers shape out. Having a holiday week with a lot of data coming out, it's going to be interesting. You're going to have a lot of junior traders on the desks, a lot of guys that are not the main guys. No one's going to really be taking risks. I think it's going to be a pretty quiet week.”

Grady acknowledged that in this kind of environment, geopolitical developments like an escalation in Ukraine or the Middle East can disrupt the market very quickly.

“I think that's why you're going to see a lot of people, I think, flattening out,” he said. “If you're going to be off the desk, you're going to lighten up that position. You don't want to be sitting on a beach and reading news about it and your position is blowing up. It's not the place you want to be. I think a lot of people are not going to be trading as much next week, but again, the algos are going to move that market.”

Grady said he doesn’t even expect many traders to be focused even on Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report. “And even the people that are around on Friday, when London shuts down, say 11:30 [am EDT] or so, I think the market's going to just die. Everyone's going to be getting out of there early.”

This week, 12 Wall Street analysts participated in the Kitco News Gold Survey, and the consensus for next week was that discretion is the better part of valor. Four experts, representing 33%, expect to see gold prices climb higher next week, while two analysts, or 17%, predict a price decline. The remaining six experts, exactly 50% of the total, didn’t want to trust gold’s direction during the coming week.

Meanwhile, 178 votes were cast in Kitco’s online poll, with Main Street investors as divided on gold’s near-term prospects this week as their Wall Street counterparts were last week. 86 retail traders, or 48%, look for gold prices to rise next week. Another 50, or 28%, expected the yellow metal to slide lower, while 42 respondents, representing the remaining 24%, saw prices continuing to chop sideways during the week ahead.

U.S. Independence Day will make next week an unusual one for economic data, with the important releases compressed on either side of the holiday. On Monday, markets will receive the ISM Manufacturing PMI, followed by the Tuesday release of Eurozone CPI flash estimates and JOLTS Job Openings. ECB President Christine Lagarde and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will also be speaking at a central bank conference in Portugal.

Then on Wednesday, markets will be watching for ADP Employment, Weekly Jobless Claims, and the ISM Services PMI, along with the minutes from the June FOMC meeting.

After the July 4th holiday on Thursday, U.S. traders will wake up to the June Nonfarm Payrolls Report on Friday morning.

Darin Newsom, Senior Market Analyst at Barchart.com, is still optimistic about gold prices for the coming week.

“I’ll stick with up again this week as the August issue still looks to have room to extend its short-term uptrend,” he said. “Early Friday morning saw August take out its previous 4-day high of $2,349.70, with the next short-term upside target at $2,370.40. We need to keep in mind the contract’s intermediate-term trend remains down, with what looks to be a triple bottom made up of $2,304.20 (week of June 3), $2,304.50 (week of June 10), and $2,304.70 (this week).”

“The old adage, or maybe just because I’m old and remember it, is ‘Triples are taken out,’ Newsom warned.

Everett Millman, Chief Market Analyst at Gainesville Coins, said he expects gold to remain trapped in its recent holding pattern until something rocks the broader market.

“A lot of people right now are looking at gold as an inverse to risk assets in the stock market, even though that is not a perfect direct one-to-one line,” he said. “I think right now that's the biggest driver, especially when people conflate the performance of the stock market, and particularly what we're seeing now, just the very top of it, very bad breadth in the start stock market right now, as far as gainers to decliners. It's not a perfect foundation right now, but we still remain pretty close to all-time highs and until we get a really big breakdown in stocks, which I think is inevitable at some point, I think gold is going to hang out.”

Millman said gold would be It would be much lower if there weren't underlying concerns about the broader markets are shaky, “but so long as those magnificent seven hold up, we can point to the headline, we can point to the indices and say ‘oh, U.S. stocks are still in a bull market. Increasingly, I think that's one of the main things that has kept gold in place is that we haven't seen a big decline or correction in the stock market, at least not a sustained one.”

“But at the same time, it's not all roses out there, right?” he added. “I think even people who are still bulls who see stocks moving higher throughout the rest of the year, at least until the election, a lot of them will at least acknowledge that beneath the surface or beneath the hood, there are some challenges and concerns for equity markets right now.”

“Given those two factors, I think it makes sense that gold is ebbing back and forth,” Millman said. It doesn't want to completely sell off because it's not as if we're seeing fresh all-time highs [in equities] day after day, but we're not far from them. Until the stock market moves really wildly one way or the other, I would not at all be surprised if gold just continues to consolidate and hang out in the range it's been stuck in.”

Millman also sees next week’s odd shape, with most significant data coming out on Wednesday, followed by the July 4th holiday, then markets reopening for the release of the employment report early Friday morning, as a risky scenario for traders and investors.

“It's definitely worth taking note of,” he said. “Given that trading volumes might be lower, it wouldn't take as much to push gold. But of course, that would very likely be a temporary move, something that we could see evaporate or correct back in the other direction quickly, given that it's not based on as much of the economic fundamentals.”

Millman said that in the medium term, the market will continue to digest the implications of contradictory inflation data from around the world.

“We got this fairly inline PCE report, and the, CPI numbers in Canada and maybe the UK where inflation is actually rising and moving the wrong direction when they're already moving to start cutting rates,” he said. “I think that dynamic, that differential between improving U. S. inflation and perhaps worsening inflation or backsliding inflation in the rest of the Western world, that divergence is something that's going to have to be considered. I don't think that's baked in completely yet. I think they're still waiting to see if maybe there's just a lag where the US data catches up.”

“That's what I think is being digested right now,” he said. “We're just going to need more data. We're going to have to be like the Fed and be data-dependent.”

Phillip Streible, Head of Market Strategy at Blue Line Futures, is bullish on gold, but he said that now is not the time to enter. “If you don't have a position, don't chase the market at these levels,” Streible said.

And Christopher Vecchio, head of futures strategies and forex at Tastylive.com, is neutral on gold for the coming week. “If you are long gold, there is no reason to sell as prices remain above $2,200 per ounce,” he said.

Spot gold last traded at $2326.72 at the time of writing for a loss of 0.05% on the day, but a gain of 0.21% on the week.

Kitco Media

Ernest Hoffman

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

Gold market is building a staircase to 2400 and beyond – Joy Yang of MarketVector Indexes

Gold market is building a staircase to $2,400 and beyond – Joy Yang of MarketVector Indexes


 

Although the gold market has managed to hold its ground above $2,300 an ounce, it remains trapped below $2,350 an ounce. Although the market is looking a little directionless, one market strategist says it is well-valued with limited downside.

In a recent interview with Kitco News, Joy Yang, Head of Index Product Management & Marketing at MarketVector Indexes, said she expects gold prices to move higher in a stair-step fashion as the price action builds a new base after every rally.

She noted that at the start of the year, gold built a solid floor at $2,000 an ounce, and now nearly seven months later, that floor has moved up by $200.

“Gold is definitely in a new comfortable range, and I just don’t see it going below $2,200 again,” she said. “In another couple of months, I expect we could see that floor move up to $2,400. I just don’t see the risks and factors driving gold really going anywhere in the next few years.”

Gold has been a boring trade, consolidating in a fairly narrow range after hitting a record high above $2,450 an ounce last month; however, Yang said that investors shouldn’t be investing in gold because it's an exciting momentum trade. She added that it’s not gold’s role to compete with stocks like NVIDIA or volatile meme stocks.

“Investors who buy and hold gold are more macro-focused,” she noted, emphasizing that gold serves as a long-term store of value amidst market frothiness.

Yang said that generalist investors interested in adding some gold to their portfolio should look at who is already buying the precious metal to help them manage their expectations. For more than two years, the biggest gold buyers have been global central banks.

“Like if you look at why central banks are holding gold, it's really to hedge their position, to diversify their portfolio,” she said.

Yang added that she doesn’t expect central banks will stop buying gold as they continue to move away from the U.S. dollar due to the size and trajectory of the government’s debt. She explained that the higher the debt goes, the more difficult it becomes for other nations to carry that burden.

She also said that as the November 2024 U.S. election approaches, it is clear that neither major political party has a plan for addressing the burgeoning debt. The Democratic Party wants to keep spending to support social programs, while Republicans want to drastically slash taxes.

“In the end, it’s all the same. We have this enormous U.S. dollar debt out there people will have to reprice,” she said. “Somebody still has to buy all this debt. But I think the rest of the world is trying to make sure they're not as dependent on the U.S. dollar. For them, gold offers another opportunity to hold an asset that is still a pretty significant store of value for them,” she said.

Although central banks have been the dominant force in the gold market, Yang said that she expects that Western investors will eventually have their turn.

She said that she expects gold’s next rally to come after the Federal Reserve makes it clear that it will lower interest rates. Currently, markets are pricing in a more than 60% chance that the U.S. central bank will start its easing cycle in September.

Kitco Media

Neils Christensen

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Tim Moseley

The Artist that came out of the Winter